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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If CON, LAB, and the SNP each got 30% of the Scottish vote Stu

SystemSystem Posts: 12,260
edited July 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If CON, LAB, and the SNP each got 30% of the Scottish vote Sturgeon’s party would be down to just 6 MPs

The Times

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited July 2017
    It says "no comments". Do I believe it?
    I guess so.
    1st past the post.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,846
    edited July 2017
    FPT, and on topic.

    This argument is wrong. Scottish independence has something fundamental and easily deliverable at its core: a transfer of sovereignty. It is several orders of magnitude easier than Brexit which does not shift sovereignty one iota - it merely diminishes the level of integration between sovereign entities.
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/890242834728615941

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The SNP look very vulnerable to a pincer movement between Labour and the Conservatives at the next Westminster election. Scottish unionist voters can clearly see who to line up behind in nearly every constituency. Even on the same vote shares, it's easy to imagine the SNP losing a lot more seats at the next election with more effective tactical voting.

    Big question: would the SNP be similarly vulnerable in a Holyrood election? Is there a Caledonian Corbynite capable of capturing the same cohort? The answer to that is far from clear.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    This list annoyingly doesn't say which party is second in each seat; does anyone have a better one?

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/snp
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Certainly the SNP won't be going out of their way to trigger a general election anytime soon...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,846
    Brexit optimism:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/890189175131176960
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    williamglenn said:

    FPT, and on topic.

    This argument is wrong. Scottish independence has something fundamental and easily deliverable at its core: a transfer of sovereignty. It is several orders of magnitude easier than Brexit which does not shift sovereignty one iota - it merely diminishes the level of integration between sovereign entities.

    Scott_P said:

    hps://twitter.com/kevverage/status/890242834728615941

    Really? A newly Indy Scotland has all the problems the UK has in having to decide how it trades with the rest of the world (and far less resources to deal with them) plus two huge issues which don't apply to Brexit, being viability as a nation, and currency. Rabbiting on about sovereignty is the last refuge of the (usually Leaver) scoundrel, and isn't of much practical importance.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,846
    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    FPT, and on topic.

    This argument is wrong. Scottish independence has something fundamental and easily deliverable at its core: a transfer of sovereignty. It is several orders of magnitude easier than Brexit which does not shift sovereignty one iota - it merely diminishes the level of integration between sovereign entities.

    Scott_P said:

    hps://twitter.com/kevverage/status/890242834728615941

    Really? A newly Indy Scotland has all the problems the UK has in having to decide how it trades with the rest of the world (and far less resources to deal with them) plus two huge issues which don't apply to Brexit, being viability as a nation, and currency. Rabbiting on about sovereignty is the last refuge of the (usually Leaver) scoundrel, and isn't of much practical importance.
    In practice Scotland would join the EU as soon as practically possible and would at no point leave the jurisdiction of the single market.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    FPT, and on topic.

    This argument is wrong. Scottish independence has something fundamental and easily deliverable at its core: a transfer of sovereignty. It is several orders of magnitude easier than Brexit which does not shift sovereignty one iota - it merely diminishes the level of integration between sovereign entities.

    Scott_P said:

    hps://twitter.com/kevverage/status/890242834728615941

    Really? A newly Indy Scotland has all the problems the UK has in having to decide how it trades with the rest of the world (and far less resources to deal with them) plus two huge issues which don't apply to Brexit, being viability as a nation, and currency. Rabbiting on about sovereignty is the last refuge of the (usually Leaver) scoundrel, and isn't of much practical importance.
    In practice Scotland would join the EU as soon as practically possible and would at no point leave the jurisdiction of the single market.
    Which would also sort the currency problem too...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,383
    foxinsoxuk said:

    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    FPT, and on topic.

    This argument is wrong. Scottish independence has something fundamental and easily deliverable at its core: a transfer of sovereignty. It is several orders of magnitude easier than Brexit which does not shift sovereignty one iota - it merely diminishes the level of integration between sovereign entities.

    Scott_P said:

    hps://twitter.com/kevverage/status/890242834728615941

    Really? A newly Indy Scotland has all the problems the UK has in having to decide how it trades with the rest of the world (and far less resources to deal with them) plus two huge issues which don't apply to Brexit, being viability as a nation, and currency. Rabbiting on about sovereignty is the last refuge of the (usually Leaver) scoundrel, and isn't of much practical importance.
    In practice Scotland would join the EU as soon as practically possible and would at no point leave the jurisdiction of the single market.
    Which would also sort the currency problem too...
    Presumably that would also put Scotland in Schengen, with border checks on the train at Berwick, etc.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,229
    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    FPT, and on topic.

    This argument is wrong. Scottish independence has something fundamental and easily deliverable at its core: a transfer of sovereignty. It is several orders of magnitude easier than Brexit which does not shift sovereignty one iota - it merely diminishes the level of integration between sovereign entities.

    Scott_P said:

    hps://twitter.com/kevverage/status/890242834728615941

    Really? A newly Indy Scotland has all the problems the UK has in having to decide how it trades with the rest of the world (and far less resources to deal with them) plus two huge issues which don't apply to Brexit, being viability as a nation, and currency. Rabbiting on about sovereignty is the last refuge of the (usually Leaver) scoundrel, and isn't of much practical importance.
    In practice Scotland would join the EU as soon as practically possible and would at no point leave the jurisdiction of the single market.
    And would have a hard border with its biggest market while remaining part of the EU that accounts for a small proportion of its trade?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,846
    edited July 2017
    CarlottaVance said:

    And would have a hard border with its biggest market while remaining part of the EU that accounts for a small proportion of its trade?

    You really think the UK is leaving the single market?
    SandyRentool said:

    Presumably that would also put Scotland in Schengen, with border checks on the train at Berwick, etc.

    It would put Scotland in the CTA along with Ireland.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Surely the LD's would be 4th not 3Rd?
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 758
    CarlottaVance said:

    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    FPT, and on topic.

    This argument is wrong. Scottish independence has something fundamental and easily deliverable at its core: a transfer of sovereignty. It is several orders of magnitude easier than Brexit which does not shift sovereignty one iota - it merely diminishes the level of integration between sovereign entities.

    Scott_P said:

    hps://twitter.com/kevverage/status/890242834728615941

    Really? A newly Indy Scotland has all the problems the UK has in having to decide how it trades with the rest of the world (and far less resources to deal with them) plus two huge issues which don't apply to Brexit, being viability as a nation, and currency. Rabbiting on about sovereignty is the last refuge of the (usually Leaver) scoundrel, and isn't of much practical importance.
    In practice Scotland would join the EU as soon as practically possible and would at no point leave the jurisdiction of the single market.
    And would have a hard border with its biggest market while remaining part of the EU that accounts for a small proportion of its trade?
    We'll have to check with the DUP to see if rUK would be allowed to enforce a hard border.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    And would have a hard border with its biggest market while remaining part of the EU that accounts for a small proportion of its trade?

    You really think the UK is leaving the single market?
    SandyRentool said:

    Presumably that would also put Scotland in Schengen, with border checks on the train at Berwick, etc.

    It would put Scotland in the CTA along with Ireland.
    joining the EU means either joining Shengen or CTA. Either is fine.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    FPT, and on topic.

    This argument is wrong. Scottish independence has something fundamental and easily deliverable at its core: a transfer of sovereignty. It is several orders of magnitude easier than Brexit which does not shift sovereignty one iota - it merely diminishes the level of integration between sovereign entities.

    Scott_P said:

    hps://twitter.com/kevverage/status/890242834728615941

    Really? A newly Indy Scotland has all the problems the UK has in having to decide how it trades with the rest of the world (and far less resources to deal with them) plus two huge issues which don't apply to Brexit, being viability as a nation, and currency. Rabbiting on about sovereignty is the last refuge of the (usually Leaver) scoundrel, and isn't of much practical importance.
    In practice Scotland would join the EU as soon as practically possible and would at no point leave the jurisdiction of the single market.
    Because everything is always as straightforward and predictable as it possibly could be: the one lesson we can all take from Brexit.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    But the point surely is that Scotland only offers 59 seats -whereas England offers the lion's share. What is the point in winning the tail if you lose the dog?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    FPT, and on topic.

    This argument is wrong. Scottish independence has something fundamental and easily deliverable at its core: a transfer of sovereignty. It is several orders of magnitude easier than Brexit which does not shift sovereignty one iota - it merely diminishes the level of integration between sovereign entities.

    Scott_P said:

    hps://twitter.com/kevverage/status/890242834728615941

    Really? A newly Indy Scotland has all the problems the UK has in having to decide how it trades with the rest of the world (and far less resources to deal with them) plus two huge issues which don't apply to Brexit, being viability as a nation, and currency. Rabbiting on about sovereignty is the last refuge of the (usually Leaver) scoundrel, and isn't of much practical importance.
    In practice Scotland would join the EU as soon as practically possible and would at no point leave the jurisdiction of the single market.
    Because everything is always as straightforward and predictable as it possibly could be: the one lesson we can all take from Brexit.
    One advantage of a prolonged transition phase is that Scotland can stay in the SM until independence, so a seamless move to the EU works.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Um! Problem for the SNP is that there are many in the fisher communities who do not want to go back into the EU - why does that matter, traditionally they were woo'ed by Salmond and became, along with the farmers of the North East, the funders of the SNP central belt operations.

    This allowed the SNP lowlanders to be allowed to believe in the socialist republic to come, because all the money to support the money tree didn't come from them.

    Nowadays the money tree is drying up, the farmers are not getting the EU funds they are entitled to, due to SNP incompetence in getting the computer systems working, while the fishermen do not want back in the European Union anyway, and then the Labour Party has a true socialist in Corbyn, which is showing up the faux socialist agenda of the SNP in the central belt - and Sturgeon has no answer.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    felix said:

    Surely the LD's would be 4th not 3Rd?

    I think Mike means in the UK.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,846
    A sensible suggestion to make Ken Clarke the leader of a government of national unity.

    http://www.euronews.com/amp/2017/07/26/view-a-crossparty-way-forward-to-avoid-brexit-disaster
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    williamglenn said:

    A sensible suggestion to make Ken Clarke the leader of a government of national unity.

    http://www.euronews.com/amp/2017/07/26/view-a-crossparty-way-forward-to-avoid-brexit-disaster

    LOL!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2017
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Certainly the SNP won't be going out of their way to trigger a general election anytime soon...

    What happened to your confidence before April (rightly placed, as it turned out) that no Opposition would EVER decline the chance at an early election, for fear of being labelled as "frit"? :p
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2017
    On topic, Scottish politics is extraordinarily volatile. Just a few months before their huge Indyref surge, the SNP turned in a VERY mediocre performance in the 2014 European elections - a drop in their voteshare from 2009, and getting comfortably beaten by Labour across Glasgow and the Central Belt - the exact places where they would rout Labour just 12 months later.

    The point being that, while the SNP aren't in especially good health at the moment, they've shown before that their fortunes can change very quickly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,288
    williamglenn said:

    Brexit optimism:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/890189175131176960

    My, the Tories are going to be in opposition for such a long time.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,879
    Scenes from the rcs1000 family unit...

    Isaac (aged 7): Mum, you said when you were little you had fun and weren't boring. When did that stop?
    My wife: Gosh Isaac, do you think I'm not fun and I'm boring?
    Julia (aged 9): Isaac! Mum's not boring, you've just got really high expectations.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,846
    IanB2 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Brexit optimism:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/890189175131176960

    My, the Tories are going to be in opposition for such a long time.
    They will fight the next election on a platform of staying in the EU. Nailed on.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,140
    Still amazed that there are 13 Scottish Tories right now.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The dollar is falling through the floor.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,140
    williamglenn said:

    IanB2 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Brexit optimism:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/890189175131176960

    My, the Tories are going to be in opposition for such a long time.
    They will fight the next election on a platform of staying in the EU. Nailed on.
    Nailed on? :p
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    Why?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,140
    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    Why?
    Most likely Brexit.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    williamglenn said:

    Brexit optimism:

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/890189175131176960

    Fair and honest assessment.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,140
    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-40731164

    Banning all petrol and diesel cars is not enough? Some people are never satisfied.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,879
    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    Why?
    Most likely Brexit.
    I think people are worried that Trump will veto the US joining the EU.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,140
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    Why?
    Most likely Brexit.
    I think people are worried that Trump will veto the US joining the EU.
    I'm surprised the US has survived as long as it has outside the EU....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    Why?
    Most likely Brexit.
    I think people are worried that Trump will veto the US joining the EU.
    I don't think that the US is eligible. It would need to stop executing people and raise its animal welfare standards.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,846
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    Why?
    Most likely Brexit.
    I think people are worried that Trump will veto the US joining the EU.
    They think he might ban transfers next.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    Why?
    Because of Labour, of course,
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,140
    edited July 2017
    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    Perhaps surbiton works for the Treasury. :smiley:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,380
    foxinsoxuk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    Why?
    Most likely Brexit.
    I think people are worried that Trump will veto the US joining the EU.
    I don't think that the US is eligible. It would need to stop executing people and raise its animal welfare standards.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Sunil060902/sandbox :innocent:
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited July 2017
    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    The YTD return is -8.5%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    RobD said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-40731164

    Banning all petrol and diesel cars is not enough? Some people are never satisfied.

    What is most LOLable is that the big rush about all this is because of all the additional diesel cars introduced under Labour as a result of militant warmism. One expects warmists to waste huge amounts of time, money and internet bandwidth, but it's amazing how routinely they exceed expectations by actively making things worse.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    The YTD return is -8.5%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
    Exactly a year ago, the Pound was $1.31.

    Today, it's....

    .....

    Wait for it!

    ...

    $1.31! :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,140
    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    The YTD return is -8.5%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
    Exactly a year ago, the Pound was $1.31.

    Today, it's....

    .....

    Wait for it!

    ...

    $1.31! :)
    We're standing still. Brexit, ladies and gentlemen.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    The YTD return is -8.5%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
    Exactly a year ago, the Pound was $1.31.

    Today, it's....

    .....

    Wait for it!

    ...

    $1.31! :)
    LOL. You are now comparing the USD with GBP, the sickest currency which itself has dropped about 15% in the last year.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,140
    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-40731164

    Banning all petrol and diesel cars is not enough? Some people are never satisfied.

    What is most LOLable is that the big rush about all this is because of all the additional diesel cars introduced under Labour as a result of militant warmism. One expects warmists to waste huge amounts of time, money and internet bandwidth, but it's amazing how routinely they exceed expectations by actively making things worse.
    Did they actually get expert advice on that, or were the experts just wrong?
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    The YTD return is -8.5%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
    Exactly a year ago, the Pound was $1.31.

    Today, it's....

    .....

    Wait for it!

    ...

    $1.31! :)
    ?? I'm a sucker for anecdotal "proofs" of anything (especially climate change).

    On May 23 2016 the pound was $1.46
    On July 4 it was $1.30

    http://www.macrotrends.net/2549/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    edited July 2017
    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    The YTD return is -8.5%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
    Exactly a year ago, the Pound was $1.31.

    Today, it's....

    .....

    Wait for it!

    ...

    $1.31! :)
    LOL. You are now comparing the USD with GBP, the sickest currency which itself has dropped about 15% in the last year.
    Okay, so a Euro was $1.12 a year ago, is now $1.16, so only a 3.5% change there too.
    A Pound was €1.18 a year ago, and is now €1.10. Still not seeing 15% anywhere.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,140
    Toms said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    The YTD return is -8.5%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
    Exactly a year ago, the Pound was $1.31.

    Today, it's....

    .....

    Wait for it!

    ...

    $1.31! :)
    ?? I'm a sucker for anecdotal "proofs" of anything (especially climate change).

    On May 23 2016 the pound was $1.46
    On July 4 it was $1.30

    http://www.macrotrends.net/2549/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart

    I suppose a year precisely is less arbitrary.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    RobD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-40731164

    Banning all petrol and diesel cars is not enough? Some people are never satisfied.

    What is most LOLable is that the big rush about all this is because of all the additional diesel cars introduced under Labour as a result of militant warmism. One expects warmists to waste huge amounts of time, money and internet bandwidth, but it's amazing how routinely they exceed expectations by actively making things worse.
    Did they actually get expert advice on that, or were the experts just wrong?
    The problem is that diesels do burn less fuel and therefore produce less co2 than petrol, but make up for it by producing more particulates and nitrogen dioxide and therefore killing more people, but it helped us meet our Kyoto co2 targets so that's fine.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    The YTD return is -8.5%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
    Exactly a year ago, the Pound was $1.31.

    Today, it's....

    .....

    Wait for it!

    ...

    $1.31! :)
    LOL. You are now comparing the USD with GBP, the sickest currency which itself has dropped about 15% in the last year.
    Okay, so a Euro was $1.12 a year ago, is now $1.16, so only a 3.5% change there too.
    A Pound was €1.18 a year ago, and is now €1.10. Still not seeing 15% anywhere.
    Rewriting history, are we ?

    https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-on-2016-06-23
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    RobD said:

    Toms said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    The YTD return is -8.5%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
    Exactly a year ago, the Pound was $1.31.

    Today, it's....

    .....

    Wait for it!

    ...

    $1.31! :)
    ?? I'm a sucker for anecdotal "proofs" of anything (especially climate change).

    On May 23 2016 the pound was $1.46
    On July 4 it was $1.30

    http://www.macrotrends.net/2549/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart

    I suppose a year precisely is less arbitrary.
    More grist for the mill: as I recall the Brexit election date was June 23.
    Anyway my stocks have leapt up since Brexit. Scary.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Bogdanor on BBC Parliament now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    The YTD return is -8.5%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
    Exactly a year ago, the Pound was $1.31.

    Today, it's....

    .....

    Wait for it!

    ...

    $1.31! :)
    LOL. You are now comparing the USD with GBP, the sickest currency which itself has dropped about 15% in the last year.
    Okay, so a Euro was $1.12 a year ago, is now $1.16, so only a 3.5% change there too.
    A Pound was €1.18 a year ago, and is now €1.10. Still not seeing 15% anywhere.
    Rewriting history, are we ?

    https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-on-2016-06-23
    Nope, you're choosing a deliberately arbitrary date from more than a year ago, while I'm taking the YOY figures from XE :)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,879
    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    RobD said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-40731164

    Banning all petrol and diesel cars is not enough? Some people are never satisfied.

    What is most LOLable is that the big rush about all this is because of all the additional diesel cars introduced under Labour as a result of militant warmism. One expects warmists to waste huge amounts of time, money and internet bandwidth, but it's amazing how routinely they exceed expectations by actively making things worse.
    Did they actually get expert advice on that, or were the experts just wrong?
    The problem is that diesels do burn less fuel and therefore produce less co2 than petrol, but make up for it by producing more particulates and nitrogen dioxide and therefore killing more people, but it helped us meet our Kyoto co2 targets so that's fine.
    Also, and more importantly, the North Sea and British refiners were set up to produce middle distillate (i.e. diesel). In the US, a lot of the new oil and NGLs are incredibly light (to an extent where some can even be used in a petrol car without the need for refining), which means that political pressure has been to use gasoline/petrol rather than diesel.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    The YTD return is -8.5%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
    Exactly a year ago, the Pound was $1.31.

    Today, it's....

    .....

    Wait for it!

    ...

    $1.31! :)
    LOL. You are now comparing the USD with GBP, the sickest currency which itself has dropped about 15% in the last year.
    Okay, so a Euro was $1.12 a year ago, is now $1.16, so only a 3.5% change there too.
    A Pound was €1.18 a year ago, and is now €1.10. Still not seeing 15% anywhere.
    Rewriting history, are we ?

    https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-on-2016-06-23
    Nope, you're choosing a deliberately arbitrary date from more than a year ago, while I'm taking the YOY figures from XE :)
    23rd June 16 was the refedendum day, so surely the best baseline?

    I note that GDP grew 0.1% Q1 and 0. 3% Q2. Presumably we willhave a major spurt to reach the 1.6% predicted for the year?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/25/us/politics/senate-votes-repeal-obamacare.html?mcubz=1

    Republicans in chaos.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Labour get 5 times the number of seats as the SNP on the same vote share.

    I wonder how much more efficient it would make labour on a UK scale if that happened, they certainly don't need an 11 point lead for a majority any more.......especially since Kensington was the tipping point for a lab majority without a Scottish recovery.



    We say this all the time but just because a party has an inefficient vote in one election don't bet they still will in the next.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    RobD said:

    Still amazed that there are 13 Scottish Tories right now.

    It really is great.


    But where is there upside? North Perthshire, plus a couple of highlands seats maybe.


    Where as labour have a lot of upside considering they are the challengers to the SNP in urban Scotland.

    I wonder if the Tories can make inroads into urban Scotland at the next Holyrood elections?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I suspect that this year's results in Scotland flatter the Tories a bit in that they benefitted from tactical voting from many normally pro-Union Labour voters. The latter will have switched to the Tories with little expectation of the Labour surge, but given that it did materialise most of them are likely to switch back to Labour next time. Four or five of the Tory gains from the SNP could well be vulnerable to a strong Labour challenge from third place - East Renfrew - Stirling - Ochil - an Ayrshire seat - and Aberdeen South. If tactical voting unwinds in those seats Labour could go from circa 20% to circa 35%. Dumfries & Galloway might also come back into play for Labour - though that may well take a bit longer.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    The YTD return is -8.5%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
    Exactly a year ago, the Pound was $1.31.

    Today, it's....

    .....

    Wait for it!

    ...

    $1.31! :)
    LOL. You are now comparing the USD with GBP, the sickest currency which itself has dropped about 15% in the last year.
    Okay, so a Euro was $1.12 a year ago, is now $1.16, so only a 3.5% change there too.
    A Pound was €1.18 a year ago, and is now €1.10. Still not seeing 15% anywhere.
    Rewriting history, are we ?

    https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-on-2016-06-23
    Nope, you're choosing a deliberately arbitrary date from more than a year ago, while I'm taking the YOY figures from XE :)
    23rd June 16 was the refedendum day, so surely the best baseline?

    I note that GDP grew 0.1% Q1 and 0. 3% Q2. Presumably we willhave a major spurt to reach the 1.6% predicted for the year?
    My point was that since the shock of the referendum, the currency markets have actually been quite stable.

    0.3% is okay for the first release of Q2 GDP, although I was a little surprised not to see Q1 revised up a notch, as has become commonplace recently. Probably looking at closer to 1.4% for the annual figure than 1.6%.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    surbiton said:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/25/us/politics/senate-votes-repeal-obamacare.html?mcubz=1

    Republicans in chaos.

    Look at how Democrats are voting as a block..... yes it's normal for opposition parties to do that but not to see one non GOP member to vote a different way is interesting. Trump has united the Democrats somewhat....although they still have a huge battle on whether to be more socialist or continue neo liberalism.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    nunuone said:

    surbiton said:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/25/us/politics/senate-votes-repeal-obamacare.html?mcubz=1

    Republicans in chaos.

    Look at how Democrats are voting as a block..... yes it's normal for opposition parties to do that but not to see one non GOP member to vote a different way is interesting. Trump has united the Democrats somewhat....although they still have a huge battle on whether to be more socialist or continue neo liberalism.
    Given the Republicans have talked about almost nothing except repealing Obamacare since 2009, it's amazing that they haven't yet been able to come up with a proposal that all of their own Senators will vote for.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    The YTD return is -8.5%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
    Exactly a year ago, the Pound was $1.31.

    Today, it's....

    .....

    Wait for it!

    ...

    $1.31! :)
    LOL. You are now comparing the USD with GBP, the sickest currency which itself has dropped about 15% in the last year.
    Okay, so a Euro was $1.12 a year ago, is now $1.16, so only a 3.5% change there too.
    A Pound was €1.18 a year ago, and is now €1.10. Still not seeing 15% anywhere.
    Rewriting history, are we ?

    https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-on-2016-06-23
    Nope, you're choosing a deliberately arbitrary date from more than a year ago, while I'm taking the YOY figures from XE :)
    23rd June 16 was the refedendum day, so surely the best baseline?

    I note that GDP grew 0.1% Q1 and 0. 3% Q2. Presumably we willhave a major spurt to reach the 1.6% predicted for the year?
    The economy has grown by 1.6% over the past year. Nothing to brag about, but nothing to despair over.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    justin124 said:

    I suspect that this year's results in Scotland flatter the Tories a bit in that they benefitted from tactical voting from many normally pro-Union Labour voters. The latter will have switched to the Tories with little expectation of the Labour surge, but given that it did materialise most of them are likely to switch back to Labour next time. Four or five of the Tory gains from the SNP could well be vulnerable to a strong Labour challenge from third place - East Renfrew - Stirling - Ochil - an Ayrshire seat - and Aberdeen South. If tactical voting unwinds in those seats Labour could go from circa 20% to circa 35%. Dumfries & Galloway might also come back into play for Labour - though that may well take a bit longer.

    Although we don't know the churn, how are you guessing Tories got labour tactical votes? The Labour rose as did the Tories. In fact you could say there was some tactical libdem votes to the Tories in seats like Gordon where we saw libdems collapse, but labour's share rose almost everywhere in Scotland, even in hopeless seats where the Tories were clearly the challengers.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    justin124 said:

    I suspect that this year's results in Scotland flatter the Tories a bit in that they benefitted from tactical voting from many normally pro-Union Labour voters. The latter will have switched to the Tories with little expectation of the Labour surge, but given that it did materialise most of them are likely to switch back to Labour next time. Four or five of the Tory gains from the SNP could well be vulnerable to a strong Labour challenge from third place - East Renfrew - Stirling - Ochil - an Ayrshire seat - and Aberdeen South. If tactical voting unwinds in those seats Labour could go from circa 20% to circa 35%. Dumfries & Galloway might also come back into play for Labour - though that may well take a bit longer.

    The Tories have a strong following among Scots who are both pro-Union, and pro-Brexit. So, in 12 seats, they won 40%+. That's a big difference from the much more even spread of votes they had in the 80's an 90's.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    edited July 2017
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    The YTD return is -8.5%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
    Exactly a year ago, the Pound was $1.31.

    Today, it's....

    .....

    Wait for it!

    ...

    $1.31! :)
    LOL. You are now comparing the USD with GBP, the sickest currency which itself has dropped about 15% in the last year.
    Okay, so a Euro was $1.12 a year ago, is now $1.16, so only a 3.5% change there too.
    A Pound was €1.18 a year ago, and is now €1.10. Still not seeing 15% anywhere.
    Rewriting history, are we ?

    https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-on-2016-06-23
    Nope, you're choosing a deliberately arbitrary date from more than a year ago, while I'm taking the YOY figures from XE :)
    23rd June 16 was the refedendum day, so surely the best baseline?

    I note that GDP grew 0.1% Q1 and 0. 3% Q2. Presumably we willhave a major spurt to reach the 1.6% predicted for the year?
    Q1 was actually 0.2%
    Q2 was, as you say, 0.3%

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40726833
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Sandpit said:

    nunuone said:

    surbiton said:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/25/us/politics/senate-votes-repeal-obamacare.html?mcubz=1

    Republicans in chaos.

    Look at how Democrats are voting as a block..... yes it's normal for opposition parties to do that but not to see one non GOP member to vote a different way is interesting. Trump has united the Democrats somewhat....although they still have a huge battle on whether to be more socialist or continue neo liberalism.
    Given the Republicans have talked about almost nothing except repealing Obamacare since 2009, it's amazing that they haven't yet been able to come up with a proposal that all of their own Senators will vote for.
    Obama set up a massive booby trap (intentional or not) for many Republican Senators because Medicaid expansion has benefitted red poor rural states the most.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited July 2017
    surbiton said:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/25/us/politics/senate-votes-repeal-obamacare.html?mcubz=1

    Republicans in chaos.

    out of the mouths of babes and, um, ...:

    'Nobody knew health care could be so complicated'
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    The YTD return is -8.5%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
    Exactly a year ago, the Pound was $1.31.

    Today, it's....

    .....

    Wait for it!

    ...

    $1.31! :)
    LOL. You are now comparing the USD with GBP, the sickest currency which itself has dropped about 15% in the last year.
    Okay, so a Euro was $1.12 a year ago, is now $1.16, so only a 3.5% change there too.
    A Pound was €1.18 a year ago, and is now €1.10. Still not seeing 15% anywhere.
    Rewriting history, are we ?

    https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-on-2016-06-23
    Nope, you're choosing a deliberately arbitrary date from more than a year ago, while I'm taking the YOY figures from XE :)
    23rd June 16 was the refedendum day, so surely the best baseline?

    I note that GDP grew 0.1% Q1 and 0. 3% Q2. Presumably we willhave a major spurt to reach the 1.6% predicted for the year?
    Actually because of that it is the worst possible baseline. The markets took a view on which way the referendum would go and reacted accordingly. They got the referendum wrong, so it went the the other way. As a result we didn't just see a single move, but a double-move as the incorrect action was reversed.

    If you look at a 16th June 16 (a week to the day before the referendum and the markets got it wrong) the exchange rate was $1.4064 or €1.2593
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    nunuone said:

    Sandpit said:

    nunuone said:

    surbiton said:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/25/us/politics/senate-votes-repeal-obamacare.html?mcubz=1

    Republicans in chaos.

    Look at how Democrats are voting as a block..... yes it's normal for opposition parties to do that but not to see one non GOP member to vote a different way is interesting. Trump has united the Democrats somewhat....although they still have a huge battle on whether to be more socialist or continue neo liberalism.
    Given the Republicans have talked about almost nothing except repealing Obamacare since 2009, it's amazing that they haven't yet been able to come up with a proposal that all of their own Senators will vote for.
    Obama set up a massive booby trap (intentional or not) for many Republican Senators because Medicaid expansion has benefitted red poor rural states the most.
    And, since 2009, Republican support has grown among poorer voters, while falling among richer voters.

    They should concede and move on.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,520
    nunuone said:

    Sandpit said:

    nunuone said:

    surbiton said:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/25/us/politics/senate-votes-repeal-obamacare.html?mcubz=1

    Republicans in chaos.

    Look at how Democrats are voting as a block..... yes it's normal for opposition parties to do that but not to see one non GOP member to vote a different way is interesting. Trump has united the Democrats somewhat....although they still have a huge battle on whether to be more socialist or continue neo liberalism.
    Given the Republicans have talked about almost nothing except repealing Obamacare since 2009, it's amazing that they haven't yet been able to come up with a proposal that all of their own Senators will vote for.
    Obama set up a massive booby trap (intentional or not) for many Republican Senators because Medicaid expansion has benefitted red poor rural states the most.
    Who knew that hosing borrowed money at the electorate would be politically difficult to undo? Sounds rather like tax credits and winter fuel allowances on this side of the pond.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,846
    edited July 2017
    Apologies to anyone who finds this offensive:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/890311215783792640
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    nunuone said:

    justin124 said:

    I suspect that this year's results in Scotland flatter the Tories a bit in that they benefitted from tactical voting from many normally pro-Union Labour voters. The latter will have switched to the Tories with little expectation of the Labour surge, but given that it did materialise most of them are likely to switch back to Labour next time. Four or five of the Tory gains from the SNP could well be vulnerable to a strong Labour challenge from third place - East Renfrew - Stirling - Ochil - an Ayrshire seat - and Aberdeen South. If tactical voting unwinds in those seats Labour could go from circa 20% to circa 35%. Dumfries & Galloway might also come back into play for Labour - though that may well take a bit longer.

    Although we don't know the churn, how are you guessing Tories got labour tactical votes? The Labour rose as did the Tories. In fact you could say there was some tactical libdem votes to the Tories in seats like Gordon where we saw libdems collapse, but labour's share rose almost everywhere in Scotland, even in hopeless seats where the Tories were clearly the challengers.
    Despite Labour seeing its vote across Scotland increase by 3% ,this was actually far from uniform. In the seats I have listed there were further falls in the Labour vote from the 2015 level , and I see that as clear evidence of pro-Union Labour voters having been persuaded that only the Tories had a realistic chance of defeating the SNP in those constituencies. In the light of the Labour surge I suspect that many of those voters will feel that they misdirected themselves and are likely to return to Labour next time. This will be particularly so if the core issue next time is getting rid of Tory PM at Westminster - rather than avoiding a second Independence Referendum.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,726
    williamglenn said:

    Apologies to anyone who finds this offensive:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/890311215783792640

    That newspaper is about as objective as the Morning Star.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited July 2017
    Just looking again at the GE17 Eastborne result.

    Quite incredible. It really should have turned into a solid tory safe seat.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastbourne_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    The LD's are unkillable.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/890317159825539072
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,741
    @Philip_Thompson

    We've had this discussion before and we will again. Below are the rates in dollars for 1GBP on January 1st each year since 2010.

    2010: 1.6150
    2011: 1.5610
    2012: 1.5507
    2013: 1.6245
    2014: 1.6554
    2015: 1.5571
    2016: 1.4740

    Sources
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2010-exchange-rate-history.html
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2011-exchange-rate-history.html
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2012-exchange-rate-history.html
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2013-exchange-rate-history.html
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2014-01-01
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2015-01-01
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2016-01-01
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-07_10_2016-exchange-rate-history.html
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,380
    williamglenn said:

    Apologies to anyone who finds this offensive:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/890311215783792640

    HOPE IS A WEAPON. SURVIVAL IS VICTORY
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited July 2017
    Without wanting to get into an argument on the validity or otherwise of specific figures...

    Many years ago, as the euro kept plunging to new lows against the dollar, eurosceptics pointed and laughed and wondered how much longer the whole charade would hold together. What a useless currency! Whereas euro-enthusiasts would point out that there would be both benefits and costs to the Eurozone of a weaker currency, and that the success of the project could not be judged on exchange rates alone - just because a currency is falling, does not mean that it is failing.

    I wondered at the time what would have happened, who would have said what, if only the boot took a foot-swap.

    There's a lot of people who see what they want to see, and seize on any data point that supports their argument - or at least play up its importance if it's helpful, downplay it if not. And I'm not saying this to point fingers at any particular side or poster, just as an observation about the human condition and the tedium of reading "evidence-based" "data-driven" argument between folk whose personal opinions would likely not be swayed one iota were the evidence reversed.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,879
    Sean_F said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    The YTD return is -8.5%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
    Exactly a year ago, the Pound was $1.31.

    Today, it's....

    .....

    Wait for it!

    ...

    $1.31! :)
    LOL. You are now comparing the USD with GBP, the sickest currency which itself has dropped about 15% in the last year.
    Okay, so a Euro was $1.12 a year ago, is now $1.16, so only a 3.5% change there too.
    A Pound was €1.18 a year ago, and is now €1.10. Still not seeing 15% anywhere.
    Rewriting history, are we ?

    https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-on-2016-06-23
    Nope, you're choosing a deliberately arbitrary date from more than a year ago, while I'm taking the YOY figures from XE :)
    23rd June 16 was the refedendum day, so surely the best baseline?

    I note that GDP grew 0.1% Q1 and 0. 3% Q2. Presumably we willhave a major spurt to reach the 1.6% predicted for the year?
    The economy has grown by 1.6% over the past year. Nothing to brag about, but nothing to despair over.
    Unless you are DavidL, in which case you should be feeling very, very worried.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,879
    MyBurningEars said:

    Without wanting to get into an argument on the validity or otherwise of specific figures...

    Many years ago, as the euro kept plunging to new lows against the dollar, eurosceptics pointed and laughed and wondered how much longer the whole charade would hold together. What a useless currency! Whereas euro-enthusiasts would point out that there would be both benefits and costs to the Eurozone of a weaker currency, and that the success of the project could not be judged on exchange rates alone - just because a currency is falling, does not mean that it is failing.

    I wondered at the time what would have happened, who would have said what, if only the boot took a foot-swap.

    There's a lot of people who see what they want to see, and seize on any data point that supports their argument - or at least play up its importance if it's helpful, downplay it if not. And I'm not saying this to point fingers at any particular side or poster, just as an observation about the human condition and the tedium of reading "evidence-based" "data-driven" argument between folk whose personal opinions would likely not be swayed one iota were the evidence reversed.

    +1
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited July 2017
    RobD said:

    I suppose a year precisely is less arbitrary.

    Although less arbitrary, it may still be unrepresentative e.g. if a major event fell just one side or the other of that cut-off.

    Incidentally, this is precisely why I distrust any news report that opens with "X has fallen/risen by Y%", for any given value of X and Y.

    And if I'm reading a comment piece or editorial or manifesto or business case in favour of someone's pet (and potentially lucrative) project, I distrust it even more.

    Do you, as a broadcaster or news writer or polemicist attempting to sway my opinion, think so utterly disdainfully of the intelligence of the general public, distrust our ability to think for ourselves, so gravely that you will not deign to show us a graph?

    You seem to have enough space on screen or page for your so-called "infobox", which often consists of nothing more than:

    "alpaca production in Borsetshire has fallen by 34% since the fall of the Berlin Wall" (may the PB mods forgive me, but that is near as dammit what they waste their precious screen real estate on)

    You could've used that space to give me a perfectly serviceable line graph. Preferably with a couple of years of data from before so I can see the pre-existing trend - the graphs purporting to show the effect of the smoking ban on the prevalence of cigarette-smoking, for example, are rather more informative when you can see how quickly it was falling already.

    Don't cherry-pick the most convenient percentages. Just show me the bloody time series, for goodness sake. And if you're feeling generous, warn us unwary of the potential confounders, especially the less obvious ones!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    Sandpit said:

    surbiton said:

    The dollar is falling through the floor.

    It's moved less than a cent - and it's giving back some of it already.
    The YTD return is -8.5%

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
    Exactly a year ago, the Pound was $1.31.

    Today, it's....

    .....

    Wait for it!

    ...

    $1.31! :)
    LOL. You are now comparing the USD with GBP, the sickest currency which itself has dropped about 15% in the last year.
    Okay, so a Euro was $1.12 a year ago, is now $1.16, so only a 3.5% change there too.
    A Pound was €1.18 a year ago, and is now €1.10. Still not seeing 15% anywhere.
    Rewriting history, are we ?

    https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-on-2016-06-23
    Nope, you're choosing a deliberately arbitrary date from more than a year ago, while I'm taking the YOY figures from XE :)
    23rd June 16 was the refedendum day, so surely the best baseline?

    I note that GDP grew 0.1% Q1 and 0. 3% Q2. Presumably we willhave a major spurt to reach the 1.6% predicted for the year?
    The economy has grown by 1.6% over the past year. Nothing to brag about, but nothing to despair over.
    Unless you are DavidL, in which case you should be feeling very, very worried.
    My point is that this year Q1 and Q2 sum as 0.5%, but the official forecast is for 1.6% for the year. Surely that should be revised downwards? 1% for the year seems about par.

    My rather phlegmatic centrist view is that nothing is ever as good as it seems or as bad as it seems. I think that we will have a stagflation rather than recession from Brexit.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    williamglenn said:

    Apologies to anyone who finds this offensive:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/890311215783792640

    That is rather good, I shall pick up a copy when passing the newsagent.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Redoubled apologies to the PB mods - I see my poor enfeebled 34% is not allowed to stand with a single "big" for dramatic effect. But imagine the 34% sufficiently enlarged that you could have stuck an actually-useful chart in its place. I don't demand an entire table of data in most cases, but the focus on a single figure rather than a graph that would show both trend and context is an endless annoyance to me. I would dig out some particularly egregious exemplars but sadly can't find anything on Google News right now concerning the impact of German reunification on the British camelid industry.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    foxinsoxuk said:

    williamglenn said:

    Apologies to anyone who finds this offensive:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/890311215783792640

    That is rather good, I shall pick up a copy when passing the newsagent.
    I like how it its price in euros varies so widely between different EU countries. Single currency, single market, several prices. (But always thought magazine headers looked more impressive when the prices spewed over several lines with all the different European currencies, all seemed more international and therefore important somehow.)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,247
    Sean_F said:

    williamglenn said:

    Apologies to anyone who finds this offensive:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/890311215783792640

    That newspaper is about as objective as the Morning Star.
    Alan Partridge has more common sense and intelligence than Steve Coogan.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,764
    edited July 2017
    The association of Dunkirk with Brexit is in bad taste and misses the point that soon after we were back in Europe.

    What a film!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,247
    Jonathan said:

    The association of Dunkirk with Brexit is in bad taste and misses the point that soon after we were back in Europe.

    What a film!

    You enjoyed it?

    I loved it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,764
    edited July 2017
    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    The association of Dunkirk with Brexit is in bad taste and misses the point that soon after we were back in Europe.

    What a film!

    You enjoyed it?

    I loved it.
    Of course. It was great. Totally lived up to high hopes and expectations.

    An unusual film though. Perhaps a little airbrushed. No-one smoked.
    Brilliant nonetheless.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,247
    Jonathan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    The association of Dunkirk with Brexit is in bad taste and misses the point that soon after we were back in Europe.

    What a film!

    You enjoyed it?

    I loved it.
    Of course. It was great. Totally lived up to high hopes and expectations.

    An unusual film though. Perhaps a little airbrushed. No-one smoked.
    Brilliant nonetheless.
    Guy at the start tried to grab a fag.

    I think people who love history and war films think it's amazing. General public who aren't that interested think it's slightly overhyped.

    I fall into the former camp. A wholly moving tribute, and I had tears in my eyes more than once.

    Makes me proud to be British.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,247
    WTF is this?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Stewart4Pboro/status/890227320509927425
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,846
    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    The association of Dunkirk with Brexit is in bad taste and misses the point that soon after we were back in Europe.

    What a film!

    You enjoyed it?

    I loved it.
    I'm going to see it this weekend.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Casino_Royale said:

    WTF is this?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Stewart4Pboro/status/890227320509927425

    Are SpAds not allowed to use Twitter or is it the tie to Peterborough that is the problem?

    Hope Jackson has his redundancy payments sorted out.
    https://twitter.com/Stewart4Pboro/status/874295448923779072
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited July 2017
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    WTF is this?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Stewart4Pboro/status/890227320509927425

    Are SpAds not allowed to use Twitter or is it the tie to Peterborough that is the problem?

    Hope Jackson has his redundancy payments sorted out.
    https://twitter.com/Stewart4Pboro/status/874295448923779072
    I'm not sure Hill & Timothy negotiated particularly good value redundancy payments, tbh.

    They've had their names very publicly trashed and taken the flak for a whole load of stuff that wasn't their fault.

    Their political careers are probably over.

    Mother Theresa threw them under the bus, then deliberately drove over them.

    Such is politics ;)
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    I'm surprised no one has mentioned Trump banning transgender people from serving in the military.

    I think this will backfire badly and he will be forced into a u-turn despite his socially conservative base.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,849
    nunuone said:

    I'm surprised no one has mentioned Trump banning transgender people from serving in the military.

    I think this will backfire badly and he will be forced into a u-turn despite his socially conservative base.

    He's doesn't realise The Handmaid's Tale wasn't supposed to be an instructional video on how to run the country.
This discussion has been closed.