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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If CON, LAB, and the SNP each got 30% of the Scottish vote Stu
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If CON, LAB, and the SNP each got 30% of the Scottish vote Sturgeon’s party would be down to just 6 MPs
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I guess so.
1st past the post.
This argument is wrong. Scottish independence has something fundamental and easily deliverable at its core: a transfer of sovereignty. It is several orders of magnitude easier than Brexit which does not shift sovereignty one iota - it merely diminishes the level of integration between sovereign entities.
Big question: would the SNP be similarly vulnerable in a Holyrood election? Is there a Caledonian Corbynite capable of capturing the same cohort? The answer to that is far from clear.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/snp
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/890189175131176960
This allowed the SNP lowlanders to be allowed to believe in the socialist republic to come, because all the money to support the money tree didn't come from them.
Nowadays the money tree is drying up, the farmers are not getting the EU funds they are entitled to, due to SNP incompetence in getting the computer systems working, while the fishermen do not want back in the European Union anyway, and then the Labour Party has a true socialist in Corbyn, which is showing up the faux socialist agenda of the SNP in the central belt - and Sturgeon has no answer.
http://www.euronews.com/amp/2017/07/26/view-a-crossparty-way-forward-to-avoid-brexit-disaster
The point being that, while the SNP aren't in especially good health at the moment, they've shown before that their fortunes can change very quickly.
Isaac (aged 7): Mum, you said when you were little you had fun and weren't boring. When did that stop?
My wife: Gosh Isaac, do you think I'm not fun and I'm boring?
Julia (aged 9): Isaac! Mum's not boring, you've just got really high expectations.
Banning all petrol and diesel cars is not enough? Some people are never satisfied.
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR
Today, it's....
.....
Wait for it!
...
$1.31!
On May 23 2016 the pound was $1.46
On July 4 it was $1.30
http://www.macrotrends.net/2549/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart
A Pound was €1.18 a year ago, and is now €1.10. Still not seeing 15% anywhere.
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-on-2016-06-23
Anyway my stocks have leapt up since Brexit. Scary.
I note that GDP grew 0.1% Q1 and 0. 3% Q2. Presumably we willhave a major spurt to reach the 1.6% predicted for the year?
Republicans in chaos.
I wonder how much more efficient it would make labour on a UK scale if that happened, they certainly don't need an 11 point lead for a majority any more.......especially since Kensington was the tipping point for a lab majority without a Scottish recovery.
We say this all the time but just because a party has an inefficient vote in one election don't bet they still will in the next.
But where is there upside? North Perthshire, plus a couple of highlands seats maybe.
Where as labour have a lot of upside considering they are the challengers to the SNP in urban Scotland.
I wonder if the Tories can make inroads into urban Scotland at the next Holyrood elections?
0.3% is okay for the first release of Q2 GDP, although I was a little surprised not to see Q1 revised up a notch, as has become commonplace recently. Probably looking at closer to 1.4% for the annual figure than 1.6%.
Q2 was, as you say, 0.3%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40726833
'Nobody knew health care could be so complicated'
If you look at a 16th June 16 (a week to the day before the referendum and the markets got it wrong) the exchange rate was $1.4064 or €1.2593
They should concede and move on.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/890311215783792640
Quite incredible. It really should have turned into a solid tory safe seat.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastbourne_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
The LD's are unkillable.
We've had this discussion before and we will again. Below are the rates in dollars for 1GBP on January 1st each year since 2010.
2010: 1.6150
2011: 1.5610
2012: 1.5507
2013: 1.6245
2014: 1.6554
2015: 1.5571
2016: 1.4740
Sources
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2010-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2011-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2012-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2013-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2014-01-01
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2015-01-01
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2016-01-01
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-07_10_2016-exchange-rate-history.html
Many years ago, as the euro kept plunging to new lows against the dollar, eurosceptics pointed and laughed and wondered how much longer the whole charade would hold together. What a useless currency! Whereas euro-enthusiasts would point out that there would be both benefits and costs to the Eurozone of a weaker currency, and that the success of the project could not be judged on exchange rates alone - just because a currency is falling, does not mean that it is failing.
I wondered at the time what would have happened, who would have said what, if only the boot took a foot-swap.
There's a lot of people who see what they want to see, and seize on any data point that supports their argument - or at least play up its importance if it's helpful, downplay it if not. And I'm not saying this to point fingers at any particular side or poster, just as an observation about the human condition and the tedium of reading "evidence-based" "data-driven" argument between folk whose personal opinions would likely not be swayed one iota were the evidence reversed.
Incidentally, this is precisely why I distrust any news report that opens with "X has fallen/risen by Y%", for any given value of X and Y.
And if I'm reading a comment piece or editorial or manifesto or business case in favour of someone's pet (and potentially lucrative) project, I distrust it even more.
Do you, as a broadcaster or news writer or polemicist attempting to sway my opinion, think so utterly disdainfully of the intelligence of the general public, distrust our ability to think for ourselves, so gravely that you will not deign to show us a graph?
You seem to have enough space on screen or page for your so-called "infobox", which often consists of nothing more than:
"alpaca production in Borsetshire has fallen by 34% since the fall of the Berlin Wall" (may the PB mods forgive me, but that is near as dammit what they waste their precious screen real estate on)
You could've used that space to give me a perfectly serviceable line graph. Preferably with a couple of years of data from before so I can see the pre-existing trend - the graphs purporting to show the effect of the smoking ban on the prevalence of cigarette-smoking, for example, are rather more informative when you can see how quickly it was falling already.
Don't cherry-pick the most convenient percentages. Just show me the bloody time series, for goodness sake. And if you're feeling generous, warn us unwary of the potential confounders, especially the less obvious ones!
My rather phlegmatic centrist view is that nothing is ever as good as it seems or as bad as it seems. I think that we will have a stagflation rather than recession from Brexit.
What a film!
I loved it.
An unusual film though. Perhaps a little airbrushed. No-one smoked.
Brilliant nonetheless.
I think people who love history and war films think it's amazing. General public who aren't that interested think it's slightly overhyped.
I fall into the former camp. A wholly moving tribute, and I had tears in my eyes more than once.
Makes me proud to be British.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Stewart4Pboro/status/890227320509927425
Hope Jackson has his redundancy payments sorted out.
https://twitter.com/Stewart4Pboro/status/874295448923779072
They've had their names very publicly trashed and taken the flak for a whole load of stuff that wasn't their fault.
Their political careers are probably over.
Mother Theresa threw them under the bus, then deliberately drove over them.
Such is politics
I think this will backfire badly and he will be forced into a u-turn despite his socially conservative base.