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Picture: The current political map of the UK (via the BBC)
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Labour's position amongst the young and educated seems to me less precarious than Tory strength amongst the working classes? When Brexit disappoints, it will surely disappoint the workers most particularly, and then the Tories would appear to be high, like Scotland, and dry (unlike)?
the public are restless for a new direction. They have rejected bloodless managerialism on every occasion that it has been offered to them. The parties would therefore do well to offer them something else.
Neither major party is well placed to do this - indeed Labour have a strong Cher tendency in their leadership, if not their supporters, and the Tories have the 'in-tray' to dwarf all 'in-trays' - possibly only exceeded by Labour in '45......not sure any of the smaller parties are well placed to exploit this either......
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/880488894072061952
One, IanB2 describes - the Tories are in a bind from which it's not at all obvious how they escape without a period in opposition, a miraculously successful Brexit looking rather unlikely. The other is that Labour are far less likely to change leader than the Tories anytime soon, and when they do, the replacement is likely to be out of a similar utopian/Marxist mould.
There is a clear opportunity for a centrist party, but somehow I don't see the LibDems making any great breakthrough under the inspired leadership of old uncle Vince.
The sinking occurs, as Alastair rightly says, because the landmass is still 'relaxing' after the last ice age. The north, released from the repressive yoke of countless tons of ice, is rising, which is causing the feckless south to sink into the mire.
It's called isostatic rebound:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-glacial_rebound
One little funny anecdote: I listen to a very good history podcast. At least it's good for history, not so good on science. The presenter mused that the reason the site of the Battle of Hastings was on the top of a hill was that the sea level had gone down through this process.
Despite Battle being on the south coast, which is sinking ...
The centre faces the challenge of how to recapture its radicalism, after the damage of the coalition years. Liberals in particular used to be driven by a very strong desire to change the world - their image of splitting the difference between the two larger parties was always thrust upon them by the voters rather than part of the self-image. Coalition has dented this dramatically but, like Macron, the LDs need to try and become the radical centre once again, championing the interests of the young in particular. Radical centerism would be hugely less risky than radical left or right. Again, Vince would appear to be the last person to go in this direction. It already feels to me that we will be treading water waiting for Vince to move on.
The idea that the Normans had time to walk up a nearby hill whilst they were waiting for Harold to walk all the way back from York never occurred to him?
And as we saw in that documentary Robin Hood, Prince of Thieves: you can land at Dover, have lunch at Hadrian's Wall, and be in Sherwood Forest for supper. So it appears as well as sinking and rising, the UK's enlarged massively in the last seven hundred years ...
The Tories under May seem quite hostile to the interests of Inner city concerns, hence their further retreat in London. Labour, in contrast, seems obsessed with the values of Islington to an extent that some northerners have trouble working out what they are talking about. Neither party has the talent in their current leadership to broaden their current coalition. The one that does successfully will win the next landslide.
It is unfortunate that Clegg, who was by far the most capable of doing this, has now lost his seat. It brings to mind the similar set back that Labour suffered when Ed Balls lost his. With Osborne and of course Cameron also opting out all 3 parties seem to have diminished their already modest talent pools significantly. Even the SNP lost Salmond and Robertson.
I struggle to recall a time when there was so little talent in politics. With the challenges we are facing as a nation that is indeed unfortunate.
As for the despicable Umunna, why was he trying to undermine his own party? Remaining in the single market is not Brexit. Corbyn had no choice but to sack the front bench rebels; at least Zeichner recognised that he couldn't stay and resigned before being sacked.
- Not obviously mad
- Not a student politician
- Not a Marxist
This tactic, however, assumes ongoing Corbyn weakness which after the unexpectedly good election result does not exist. For internal Labour opposition it is now a waiting game. Corbyn is untouchable for as long as he wants or is able to stay. It is fanciful to think he will not use that position to consolidate the grip of his wing of the party. For that reason I do not fancy Umunna's chances.
Britain Elects @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
William Morris (Waltham Forest) result:
LAB 68.4% (+11.5)
GRN 18.6% (+1.8)
CON 13.0% (+6.2)
LDEM NA (-7.4)
TUSC NA (-4.3)
UKIP NA (-7.8)
Britain Elects @britainelects 7h7 hours ago
Hedge End Grange Park (Eastleigh):
LDEM 56.5% (+15.5)
CON 26.7% (-10.9)
LAB 12.2% (+0.9)
GRN 3.5% (+3.5)
UKIP 1.2% (-9.0)
What made Macron stand out is his confidence not to apologise for his opinions.
I cannot see what Vince brings to the LD leadership. I would far rather that Lamb will reconsider standing, but if not will vote for whoever stands against Vince.
Hastings seemed keen on hard Brexit. Perhaps there will be plenty of jobs created servicing the vast lorry parks and customs houses. I cannot see much other advantage to them.
I have an uncle there. It is a profoundly depressing spot, though some nearby places are pleasant enough.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/30/nicola-sturgeon-urged-bar-english-soldiers-students-scotland/
Chuka now has an army of 40-and that's just on the Labour side-and if Corbyn looks like a Brexiteer Momentum and his youth vote will melt like ice on an anvil.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/29/opinion/ive-overestimated-donald-trump.html
However, I see little reason to think he isn't a terrible president, and that he's rapidly degrading the very office he holds.
As an aside, I think JFK was an absolutely terrible presidential candidate and president, a small man and a liar whose mistruths brought us to the brink of nuclear war. Yet he's now lauded as a great president, so what do I know?
Durham Dawdon Labour hold in straight contest between Labour and Seaham Community
West Lancs Derby OWL gain from Conservative
There's a posionous atmosphere out there on both sides, and the middle ground is being hollowed out.
Or maybe she wishes she could 'turn back time'?
Personally I think there has been a dramatic improvement in the political operation since he started as opposition leader.
I think Cameron, Miliband and even Blair are probably pleasant people; broad-minded and accepting of other views and perspectives, even if they disagree with them. Or perhaps they really are unpleasant, and are successful at projecting an opposite image.
Three I see as being actively unpleasant are Leadsom, Brown and Corbyn (though hopefully Leadsom never becomes a 'senior politician' and remains a nonentity).
I'm undecided on May: I find it hard to put a finger on her personality. Her period at the Home Office: the department of hard choices, certainly has not helped her image. But on the other hand she's a hillwalker, and they're never bad people.
He's basically a cult. You either follow him or p*ss off.
I strongly disagree with your assessment of the first four and it's only your fifth - JFK - that I agree with you wasn't really a good man. JFK and Brown are the only ones we agree on.
He decisively lost a vote of no confidence a while back.
Now I think he would win - or at least come very close.
Doesn't that show leadership?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-corbyn-single-market-rebellion-mps-fired-sacked-list-full-chuka-umunna-amendment-a7815616.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04pr6q9/segments
Opposing Brexit matters very much to some of the Labour vote, especially the traditional middle-class vote (like me), which is well-represented in the PLP. Corbyn is as usual exactly what he says he is - he'd mildly prefer us to be members of the EU but as you say of the campaigners he's not that bothered. The nature of Brexit and what we make of it is much more relevant for him, and going to the stake for single market membership seems to him an odd and probably impractical idea.
Most voters are also in oh-well-let's-get-on-with-it mood, mingled with apprehension. Labour's position is probably closest of the main parties in that, but clearly reemergence of splits isn't helpful.
Alistair's piece is good, as usual. An underlying issue is that most floating voters don't seem to think in left-right terms any more. They genuinely float around, looking for politicians who catch their eye.
Edit: sorry if your anti-homophobic joke went over my head.
Clegg - the great student tuition fees betrayal and the consequent crippling of the LibDems
Balls - the brains behind the Brownian economy, the political titan who failed against Alistair Darling, failed against George Osborne, failed against Andrea Jenkyns
Osborne - vast over-borrowing, a housing bubble and intergenerational unfairness and Budgets which disintegrated within hours
Cameron - Middle Eastern meddling and EU negotiation a disaster and what happened to his 'Big Society'
Even the SNP boys lost the thing which really mattered and are now far from being able to have a second go.
I now understand why betting shops continue to increase.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/edson-edir-da-costa-death-justice-protests-metropolitan-police-stop-ipcc-swallowed-packages-a7811066.html
SW version
https://socialistworker.co.uk/art/44893/Exclusive:+I+was+there,+I+saw+what+happened,+says+witness+in+Edson+Da+Costa+case
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40441712