Sky have paid a lot for the ECB rights, expect a serious price hike.
There was an article yesterday that Sky sports were looking at their packages with a view to reducung the overall cost due to increasing competition and customer resistance
Certainly it vindicates Corbyn's decision not to take up his offer to return to the Shadow Cabinet - preesumably he'd have resigned again. I think any appointee should be asked whether they're prepared to stay on for the forseeable future despite whatever unease they may feel about the Brexit position.
Opposing Brexit matters very much to some of the Labour vote, especially the traditional middle-class vote (like me), which is well-represented in the PLP. Corbyn is as usual exactly what he says he is - he'd mildly prefer us to be members of the EU but as you say of the campaigners he's not that bothered. The nature of Brexit and what we make of it is much more relevant for him, and going to the stake for single market membership seems to him an odd and probably impractical idea.
Most voters are also in oh-well-let's-get-on-with-it mood, mingled with apprehension. Labour's position is probably closest of the main parties in that, but clearly reemergence of splits isn't helpful.
Alistair's piece is good, as usual. An underlying issue is that most floating voters don't seem to think in left-right terms any more. They genuinely float around, looking for politicians who catch their eye.
I was a Labour member for years and Corbyn has never been pro-EU he just didn't have the guts to say so during the referendum campaign. I'm not buying your honest man of principle I'm afraid....
It seems that Nick P is the Richard Nabavi of the Labour party when it comes to putting the best possible gloss on whatever the latest mildly indefensible piece of news happens to be.
One thing that hasn't been talked about enough is that half of ukip vote went to a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour, even after May basically threw herself at them. Some right wingers on here are predictability saying she wasn't "right wing enough", If she went further right Putney would be a labour seat right now, whilst it's not clear people in the north who have *never* voted Tory would have started.
For a while left wingers have been saying concern over immigration is actually because of a lack of "investment" in public services rather than cultural anxiety. Jeremy Corbyn has painted himself as unashamedly anti austerity so the argument that much the concern over immigration is economic rather than cultural is compelling especially after TMay couldn't dog whistle more even if she tried.
The right wing headbangers (there are lefty ones too) should sit and ponder this, but they wont.
I think this is one of the most interesting questions that came out of the election result.
Why did UKIP voters support Corbyn? He didn't even promise to reduce immigration! Your view that it may have been driven by economic rather than cultural concerns is interesting... Having been consistently anti-austerity, ex-UKIP voters trust him to invest in public services.
I wonder if part of it is that there was a general dissatisfaction among many UKIPers with politics as usual, and Corbyn clearly represents a break with that.
There was an assumption that a lot of UKIP are right wingers, but perhaps their surge over the years actually attracted a lot of Labour voters as well. Now with Brexit guaranteed they returned home just like many UKIP voters returned to the Tories.
Perhaps we just didn't understand the actual composition or the political leanings of their voter base?
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
The only projection going on here is PBers claiming they know what Labour voters were thinking during the election, despite the fact they didn't actually speak to (m)any of them.
Have a feeling the Remainer bubble was burst for good yesterday.
Corbyn has been anti EU all along, he managed to kid a few gullible lefties but then that's not hard.
Fooling a few gullible lefties is one thing... But what about all those daft remain Tories who voted for him in seats like Canterbury?
Bet they're feeling pretty darn stupid now!
.
They'll be very angry, but they'll probably find a way of rationalising their decision. It was, after all, the Conservatives who killed their dream, not Labour.
I share your concern about Vince. The most rosy scenario is that Vince recognises that his role is to provide an apprenticeship and transitional period for his deputy, assuming she wants to step up in the first place. However, humility and selflessness do not appear to be Vince's most obvious characteristics. The centre faces the challenge of how to recapture its radicalism, after the damage of the coalition years. Liberals in particular used to be driven by a very strong desire to change the world - their image of splitting the difference between the two larger parties was always thrust upon them by the voters rather than part of the self-image. Coalition has dented this dramatically but, like Macron, the LDs need to try and become the radical centre once again, championing the interests of the young in particular. Radical centerism would be hugely less risky than radical left or right. Again, Vince would appear to be the last person to go in this direction. It already feels to me that we will be treading water waiting for Vince to move on.
Vince is a poor choice for leader. Still 20 days to the deadline to stand.
As someone who finds himself trapped politically between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives, I fail to see what Vince would bring to the table policywise that I'd like. But perhaps he'll surprise me, or perhaps I'm not the sort of voter he'll aim for.
Your worries are groundless, I think, Mr Jessop. Unlike the Conservative Party, Lib Dems do not wait for their leader to have a brilliant new idea while running through the cornfields. There is a structure and process for developing policy. It might be a good idea to wait and see what the Lib Dems discuss at their Conference in Bournemouth in September. It is not just the Lib Dem leader who matters.
Yep, the country is holding its breath for the LibDem conference discussion...
I too find these kind of remarks frankly hilarious. The LibDems are of no account at all. It is actually decadent to spend an instant thinking about them given what else is up in the world.
Where are we on the LibDem leadership? Do we really need to wait until the middle of July to find out if Sir Vince is on for a coronation?
Peppa Pig could lead the LibDems, frankly.
Who's leading the Space Navies?
Do you think she'll defect from the Tories, rather strange thing for the PM to do?
Sky have paid a lot for the ECB rights, expect a serious price hike.
There was an article yesterday that Sky sports were looking at their packages with a view to reducung the overall cost due to increasing competition and customer resistance
There's a good discussion about it on Digital Spy:
My view is that Sky are going to have a very difficult making more money attracting customers to take up one sport (e.g. cricket) than they will lose from people who will ditch sports that they don't want.
@DanielJHannan: 1/3 Back in 2014, when no one else was planning how to win the referendum, @DouglasCarswell talked tactics at the @Tate. He said:
@DanielJHannan: @DouglasCarswell@Tate 2/3 "We can win in one of two circumstances: a visible failure of the renegotiation, or one of the two main party leaders being neutral."
Sky have paid a lot for the ECB rights, expect a serious price hike.
There was an article yesterday that Sky sports were looking at their packages with a view to reducung the overall cost due to increasing competition and customer resistance
Sky is in serious danger of losing my custom after 15 years.
Mr. Gin, I think it's 2019. Not certain, but it's not far off.
I imagine highlights will be available for the peasantry, if they can avoid spoilers.
I did have Sky when it first went to Sky.. Pretty much purely for F1 but I found I wasn't really watching anything else so couldn't justify the money (I'm not a big telly watcher at all)
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
The only projection going on here is PBers claiming they know what Labour voters were thinking during the election, despite the fact they didn't actually speak to (m)any of them.
I wouldn't presume to claim to know what Labour voters generally think. But, I think we can make an educated guess about the motives of people who switched from Conservative to Labour in places like Kensington, Canterbury, and Battersea.
Have a feeling the Remainer bubble was burst for good yesterday.
Corbyn has been anti EU all along, he managed to kid a few gullible lefties but then that's not hard.
Fooling a few gullible lefties is one thing... But what about all those daft remain Tories who voted for him in seats like Canterbury?
Bet they're feeling pretty darn stupid now!
.
They'll be very angry, but they'll probably find a way of rationalising their decision. It was, after all, the Conservatives who killed their dream, not Labour.
One thing that hasn't been talked about enough is that half of ukip vote went to a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour, even after May basically threw herself at them. Some right wingers on here are predictability saying she wasn't "right wing enough", If she went further right Putney would be a labour seat right now, whilst it's not clear people in the north who have *never* voted Tory would have started.
For a while left wingers have been saying concern over immigration is actually because of a lack of "investment" in public services rather than cultural anxiety. Jeremy Corbyn has painted himself as unashamedly anti austerity so the argument that much the concern over immigration is economic rather than cultural is compelling especially after TMay couldn't dog whistle more even if she tried.
The right wing headbangers (there are lefty ones too) should sit and ponder this, but they wont.
I think this is one of the most interesting questions that came out of the election result.
Why did UKIP voters support Corbyn? He didn't even promise to reduce immigration! Your view that it may have been driven by economic rather than cultural concerns is interesting... Having been consistently anti-austerity, ex-UKIP voters trust him to invest in public services.
I wonder if part of it is that there was a general dissatisfaction among many UKIPers with politics as usual, and Corbyn clearly represents a break with that.
There was an assumption that a lot of UKIP are right wingers, but perhaps their surge over the years actually attracted a lot of Labour voters as well. Now with Brexit guaranteed they returned home just like many UKIP voters returned to the Tories.
Perhaps we just didn't understand the actual composition or the political leanings of their voter base?
Someone commented during the election campaign that in 2012 UKIP had taken votes from Labour so it might be misleading to assume they will all vote for Theresa May's Conservatives in 2017. My own view is that UKIP = NOTA not Brexit.
Any Abba song would do, surely? I find them indistinguishable. The clunky English is entertaining though. "No more ace to play"; "feeling blue" (has anyone ever said that, ever?); "there's not I think a single episode of Dallas that I didn't see".
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
Perhaps it was more than a few people. If so, feck knows where we are.
I think that's right or perhaps they just thought he was less Brexity than Theresa. But now they know different I'm hoping for fireworks. A pity as I was just starting to warm to him.
On the mechanics of the Lib Dem leadership: a candidate has to get the support of 10% of Lib Dem MPs ( I assume that is 2) by 5th July and then from 200 party members from at least 20 local parties by 20th July.
Have a feeling the Remainer bubble was burst for good yesterday.
Corbyn has been anti EU all along, he managed to kid a few gullible lefties but then that's not hard.
Fooling a few gullible lefties is one thing... But what about all those daft remain Tories who voted for him in seats like Canterbury?
Bet they're feeling pretty darn stupid now!
The irony is that I have a feeling if Theresa had got her landslide she'd probably have gone for a softer Brexit because it would have protected her from the Peter Bone's of the Tory Party,
The hung parliament has actually made a hard Brexit much more probable.
I agree, the funniest thing for me is the silence of the usually bombastic Remainers on here. They'd managed to convince themselves it wasn't going to happen despite all the evidence to the contrary.
Incidentally I live near Canterbury and still find it hard to believe
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
Perhaps it was more than a few people. If so, feck knows where we are.
I think that's right or perhaps they just thought he was less Brexity than Theresa. But now they know different I'm hoping for fireworks. A pity as I was just starting to warm to him.
Too late for "fireworks" Rog.
Jezza is firmly cemented in place as Lab leader for now.
Have a feeling the Remainer bubble was burst for good yesterday.
Corbyn has been anti EU all along, he managed to kid a few gullible lefties but then that's not hard.
Fooling a few gullible lefties is one thing... But what about all those daft remain Tories who voted for him in seats like Canterbury?
Bet they're feeling pretty darn stupid now!
The irony is that I have a feeling if Theresa had got her landslide she'd probably have gone for a softer Brexit because it would have protected her from the Peter Bone's of the Tory Party,
The hung parliament has actually made a hard Brexit much more probable.
I agree, the funniest thing for me is the silence of the usually bombastic Remainers on here. They'd managed to convince themselves it wasn't going to happen despite all the evidence to the contrary.
Incidentally I live near Canterbury and still find it hard to believe
Yeah, I had noticed ScottP and WilliamGlenn were unusually quiet today...
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
The only projection going on here is PBers claiming they know what Labour voters were thinking during the election, despite the fact they didn't actually speak to (m)any of them.
I wouldn't presume to claim to know what Labour voters generally think. But, I think we can make an educated guess about the motives of people who switched from Conservative to Labour in places like Kensington, Canterbury, and Battersea.
Why? A post-election Survation poll found only 6% of Labour voters ranked Brexit as their #1 issue in deciding their vote (the NHS was by far the top issue for Labour voters with 4 times that level). Brexit was, however, the top issue for voters of both the Tories and Lib Dems.
The 3 constituencies you mention are chockful of younger people who we know liked Corbyn's economic and inequality messages. Many of them may also have happened to vote Remain but "correlation does not equal causation" and all that.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
Perhaps it was more than a few people. If so, feck knows where we are.
I think that's right or perhaps they just thought he was less Brexity than Theresa. But now they know different I'm hoping for fireworks. A pity as I was just starting to warm to him.
There's one thing for certain, politics is definitely not boring now. That was the fear before the election.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
Perhaps it was more than a few people. If so, feck knows where we are.
I think that's right or perhaps they just thought he was less Brexity than Theresa. But now they know different I'm hoping for fireworks. A pity as I was just starting to warm to him.
There's one thing for certain, politics is definitely not boring now. That was the fear before the election.
Reckon you could be heading to the polls again shortly ?
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
Perhaps it was more than a few people. If so, feck knows where we are.
I think that's right or perhaps they just thought he was less Brexity than Theresa. But now they know different I'm hoping for fireworks. A pity as I was just starting to warm to him.
Whatever the faults/drawbacks of FPTP, I really do think we need a NOTA box and if NOTA wins the seat has to be re-contested by new candidates. In both the Brexit referendum and the 2017 GE I didn't vote because both options were so poor and in my view undeserving of my vote.
Admittedly I had the luxury of abstaining risklessly, because I live in a Tory constituency with lots of Jews in it. As Labour is now a party intensely relaxed about anti-Semitism, from its leader down, this was never going to do anything but stay Tory. But with things like Brexit, we really needed a bar that if not passed amounted to "start again and make some decent arguments this time".
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
The only projection going on here is PBers claiming they know what Labour voters were thinking during the election, despite the fact they didn't actually speak to (m)any of them.
I wouldn't presume to claim to know what Labour voters generally think. But, I think we can make an educated guess about the motives of people who switched from Conservative to Labour in places like Kensington, Canterbury, and Battersea.
Yep - and Warwick & Leamington. But I suspect it was the tone of the Tory language on Brexit and the whole confrontational approach the party seemed to adopt that, more than anything else, helped to drive a lot of Remain voters away. Citizens of nowhere, saboteurs, enemies of the people, accusing Brussels of trying to influence the election etc; the mood music was appalling. And in a two party system if you don't like option one your alternatives are very limited. Labour's problem, though, is that it applies the other way round, too. And I am absolutely certain that affluent, leafy, middle class, previously Tory-voting Warwick & Leamington has not suddenly embraced red-blooded socialism, or anything close to it.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
Perhaps it was more than a few people. If so, feck knows where we are.
I think that's right or perhaps they just thought he was less Brexity than Theresa. But now they know different I'm hoping for fireworks. A pity as I was just starting to warm to him.
Whatever the faults/drawbacks of FPTP, I really do think we need a NOTA box and if NOTA wins the seat has to be re-contested by new candidates. In both the Brexit referendum and the 2017 GE I didn't vote because both options were so poor and in my view undeserving of my vote.
What the Conservatives' enthusiasm for Brexit did was wreck their image among those who voted Remain for competence and rationality. So they looked again at Labour with fresh eyes.
Labour supporting or not supporting Brexit will not improve the Conservatives' reputation for competence and rationality with these people. Indeed, it's hard to see how the Conservatives could win that back.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
The only projection going on here is PBers claiming they know what Labour voters were thinking during the election, despite the fact they didn't actually speak to (m)any of them.
I wouldn't presume to claim to know what Labour voters generally think. But, I think we can make an educated guess about the motives of people who switched from Conservative to Labour in places like Kensington, Canterbury, and Battersea.
Why? A post-election Survation poll found only 6% of Labour voters ranked Brexit as their #1 issue in deciding their vote (the NHS was by far the top issue for Labour voters with 4 times that level). Brexit was, however, the top issue for voters of both the Tories and Lib Dems.
The 3 constituencies you mention are chockful of younger people who we know liked Corbyn's economic and inequality messages. Many of them may also have happened to vote Remain but "correlation does not equal causation" and all that.
The proportion would be much higher than 6% in those places. Had these places (and Southgate) voted Leave, the Conservatives would have won them.
Mr. Gin, sponsors are reportedly, and predictably, unhappy that the shift to pay TV is reducing their audience and exposure of their brands. Hopefully that'll create pressure to return to free-to-air TV.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
Perhaps it was more than a few people. If so, feck knows where we are.
I think that's right or perhaps they just thought he was less Brexity than Theresa. But now they know different I'm hoping for fireworks. A pity as I was just starting to warm to him.
Corbyn has a Bennite detestation for the EU project. I'm amazed you hadn't grasped that.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
Perhaps it was more than a few people. If so, feck knows where we are.
I think that's right or perhaps they just thought he was less Brexity than Theresa. But now they know different I'm hoping for fireworks. A pity as I was just starting to warm to him.
There's one thing for certain, politics is definitely not boring now. That was the fear before the election.
Reckon you could be heading to the polls again shortly ?
I shouldn't think so. Don't see what the point would be? Kill off a few more SDLP/UUP reps to what purpose?
Brokenshire should have canned the Assembly and cut off our pay yesterday. It's pathetic how the tail wags the dog. He seems utterly, painfully weak.
But I said he'd do nothing early yesterday. I was right.
He said there would be 'serious and profound consequences' of a failure to reach a deal by yesterday.
Those consequences seem to be, erm, totally non-existent but he might decide to do something on Monday. Maybe.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
Perhaps it was more than a few people. If so, feck knows where we are.
I think that's right or perhaps they just thought he was less Brexity than Theresa. But now they know different I'm hoping for fireworks. A pity as I was just starting to warm to him.
There's one thing for certain, politics is definitely not boring now. That was the fear before the election.
Sadly, the shambles we are now in is not a price worth paying for interesting politics.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
The only projection going on here is PBers claiming they know what Labour voters were thinking during the election, despite the fact they didn't actually speak to (m)any of them.
As a musician, just about everyone I know is a Corbynista. It wasn't about Brexit for them - it was 'I want more, and those rich bastard tories should pay for it' mixed with a bit of 'Social Justice' (whatever that really means), plus "We hate the fucking Tories - They're scum". There was a lot of crazy stuff floating about, mostly shared from the Canary or meme sites, most of which was batshit conspiracy level stuff. My Facebook feed was a study in collective hysteria.
The anger and hate was amazing - the idea that Labour ran some kind of positive message is so alien to my experience of it on the ground. Their hard core support was more aggressive and negative than anything I've ever seen in politics in my lifetime (and I'm no kid).
I was a Labour member for years and Corbyn has never been pro-EU he just didn't have the guts to say so during the referendum campaign. I'm not buying your honest man of principle I'm afraid.
I do feel strongly about the EU and when we look back on this period of history the big mistake the party made will not be choosing a left winger per se but choosing one of only the handful of MPs that was happy to see us Brexit.
Well, I know him quite well and have discussed the EU with him in detail. I'm sceptical that you know him better? His stock in trade, which is often awkward, is that he's almost impossible to persuade to pretend he thinks something he doesn't (the best you can get is "I think X but the party thinks otherwise", as on Trident), and his "7.5 out of 10" is exactly what he thinks about the EU. There are lots of us, including me, who would be more like 9.5 out 10, but I don't think he's ever given any reason to think that he agreed with us, nor that he secretly thinks 0 out of 10.
In the end he sees it as a partnership which would be easier to continue as members but will need to continue either way; membership isn't an article of faith with him as it is for, say, Tony Blair or Ken Clarke. That's close to how most people feel, and those who love or hate membership per se are minorities.
Labour supporting or not supporting Brexit will not improve the Conservatives' reputation for competence and rationality with these people. Indeed, it's hard to see how the Conservatives could win that back.
It will probably take a couple of years of Jezza in government...
Two men chatting in the queue behind me at the UK Border last night. One mentioned Northern Ireland, the other said he was worried things would turn nasty there, and it would be May's fault if that happens.
So there we have it. From Strong & Stable, via Weak & Wonky, to Useless & Dangerous.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
Perhaps it was more than a few people. If so, feck knows where we are.
I think that's right or perhaps they just thought he was less Brexity than Theresa. But now they know different I'm hoping for fireworks. A pity as I was just starting to warm to him.
Whatever the faults/drawbacks of FPTP, I really do think we need a NOTA box and if NOTA wins the seat has to be re-contested by new candidates. In both the Brexit referendum and the 2017 GE I didn't vote because both options were so poor and in my view undeserving of my vote.
NOTA would win every election...
... and pretty soon there would be no candidates left, assuming that the parties put up what they considered their best candidates first.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
Perhaps it was more than a few people. If so, feck knows where we are.
I think that's right or perhaps they just thought he was less Brexity than Theresa. But now they know different I'm hoping for fireworks. A pity as I was just starting to warm to him.
Whatever the faults/drawbacks of FPTP, I really do think we need a NOTA box and if NOTA wins the seat has to be re-contested by new candidates. In both the Brexit referendum and the 2017 GE I didn't vote because both options were so poor and in my view undeserving of my vote.
Admittedly I had the luxury of abstaining risklessly, because I live in a Tory constituency with lots of Jews in it. As Labour is now a party intensely relaxed about anti-Semitism, from its leader down, this was never going to do anything but stay Tory. But with things like Brexit, we really needed a bar that if not passed amounted to "start again and make some decent arguments this time".
That could be the receipe for chaos though, and all that would happen is candidates would just swop around if they had to.
Are people really voting NOTA because of those specific people, or are they just anti-politics/politicans in general.
It seems that Nick P is the Richard Nabavi of the Labour party when it comes to putting the best possible gloss on whatever the latest mildly indefensible piece of news happens to be.
I don't know whether I should be flattered or insulted by the comparison!
Any Abba song would do, surely? I find them indistinguishable. The clunky English is entertaining though. "No more ace to play"; "feeling blue" (has anyone ever said that, ever?); "there's not I think a single episode of Dallas that I didn't see".
I try not to be sectarian about musical tastes (can't understand the people who DESPISE someone for preferring a particular type of music) but I'm in the TSE camp of thinking that Abba's music has never been surpassed, and is richly varied too. I even like the lyrics (the cheek of making the English version of Fernando for the US market being about Mexican insurgents against the US is amusing, especially as the Swedish original is quite different), and I think I've actually said all three of those phrases (yes I liked Dallas too!).
Two men chatting in the queue behind me at the UK Border last night. One mentioned Northern Ireland, the other said he was worried things would turn nasty there, and it would be May's fault if that happens.
So there we have it. From Strong & Stable, via Weak & Wonky, to Useless & Dangerous.
The only people responsible for it turning nasty here would be the nasty people doing the nasty things.
Any other take is wrong and doesn't wash with me for a second.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
The only projection going on here is PBers claiming they know what Labour voters were thinking during the election, despite the fact they didn't actually speak to (m)any of them.
As a musician, just about everyone I know is a Corbynista. It wasn't about Brexit for them - it was 'I want more, and those rich bastard tories should pay for it' mixed with a bit of 'Social Justice' (whatever that really means), plus "We hate the fucking Tories - They're scum". There was a lot of crazy stuff floating about, mostly shared from the Canary or meme sites, most of which was batshit conspiracy level stuff. My Facebook feed was a study in collective hysteria.
The anger and hate was amazing - the idea that Labour ran some kind of positive message is so alien to my experience of it on the ground. Their hard core support was more aggressive and negative than anything I've ever seen in politics in my lifetime (and I'm no kid).
Interesting observations. From experience of friends and family members there is also a re-energising of old lefties for a final hurra and a lot of youthful idealism but the irrational hatred is a major force. How can it be defused without doing a lot of damage? Will it dissipate? Has the internet amplified this?
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
The only projection going on here is PBers claiming they know what Labour voters were thinking during the election, despite the fact they didn't actually speak to (m)any of them.
I Battersea.
Why? ALib Dems.
The 3 constituencies you mention are chockful of younger people who we know liked Corbyn's economic and inequality messages. Many of them may also have happened to vote Remain but "correlation does not equal causation" and all that.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
The only projection going on here is PBers claiming they know what Labour voters were thinking during the election, despite the fact they didn't actually speak to (m)any of them.
I wouldn't presume to claim to know what Labour voters generally think. But, I think we can make an educated guess about the motives of people who switched from Conservative to Labour in places like Kensington, Canterbury, and Battersea.
Why? A post-election Survation poll found only 6% of Labour voters ranked Brexit as their #1 issue in deciding their vote (the NHS was by far the top issue for Labour voters with 4 times that level). Brexit was, however, the top issue for voters of both the Tories and Lib Dems.
The 3 constituencies you mention are chockful of younger people who we know liked Corbyn's economic and inequality messages. Many of them may also have happened to vote Remain but "correlation does not equal causation" and all that.
It would be interesting to see how turnouts in the Tory constituencies that turned Labour varied from 2015 to 2017.
Have a feeling the Remainer bubble was burst for good yesterday.
Corbyn has been anti EU all along, he managed to kid a few gullible lefties but then that's not hard.
Fooling a few gullible lefties is one thing... But what about all those daft remain Tories who voted for him in seats like Canterbury?
Bet they're feeling pretty darn stupid now!
The irony is that I have a feeling if Theresa had got her landslide she'd probably have gone for a softer Brexit because it would have protected her from the Peter Bone's of the Tory Party,
The hung parliament has actually made a hard Brexit much more probable.
I agree, the funniest thing for me is the silence of the usually bombastic Remainers on here. They'd managed to convince themselves it wasn't going to happen despite all the evidence to the contrary.
Incidentally I live near Canterbury and still find it hard to believe
The biggest threat to Brexit is, and has always been, a major recession between now and the end of the Article 50 process.
If the funny bit is that any recession will likely be the consequence of our economy being unbalanced (blame Mr Osborne), rather than Brexit. (Although, of course, there is no doubt that if a "cliff edge Brexit" looks probable, then investment levels will fall.)
My personal view is that if - 12 months from now - the economy is contracting, unemployment is rising, and people are suffering from negative equity, then there might be a very many MPs that get cold feet about Brexit.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
The only projection going on here is PBers claiming they know what Labour voters were thinking during the election, despite the fact they didn't actually speak to (m)any of them.
I wouldn't presume to claim to know what Labour voters generally think. But, I think we can make an educated guess about the motives of people who switched from Conservative to Labour in places like Kensington, Canterbury, and Battersea.
Why? A post-election Survation poll found only 6% of Labour voters ranked Brexit as their #1 issue in deciding their vote (the NHS was by far the top issue for Labour voters with 4 times that level). Brexit was, however, the top issue for voters of both the Tories and Lib Dems.
The 3 constituencies you mention are chockful of younger people who we know liked Corbyn's economic and inequality messages. Many of them may also have happened to vote Remain but "correlation does not equal causation" and all that.
That's probably because in safe Labour seats that was true. But in London and the seats that mattered it was overwhelming. Now they know they were sold a pup it won't happen next time.
What the Conservatives' enthusiasm for Brexit did was wreck their image among those who voted Remain for competence and rationality. So they looked again at Labour with fresh eyes.
Labour supporting or not supporting Brexit will not improve the Conservatives' reputation for competence and rationality with these people. Indeed, it's hard to see how the Conservatives could win that back.
A couple of terms (He'll win a second as the profligacy won't have started to bite yet) of Corbyn/McDonnell should do the trick.
The biggest threat to Brexit is, and has always been, a major recession between now and the end of the Article 50 process.
If the funny bit is that any recession will likely be the consequence of our economy being unbalanced (blame Mr Osborne), rather than Brexit. (Although, of course, there is no doubt that if a "cliff edge Brexit" looks probable, then investment levels will fall.)
My personal view is that if - 12 months from now - the economy is contracting, unemployment is rising, and people are suffering from negative equity, then there might be a very many MPs that get cold feet about Brexit.
This morning's savings ratio figures, combined with poor consumer confidence, signal a quite sharp downturn in consumer spending. When people think times are uncertain, they tend to increase the savings ratio - which means cutting spending.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
The only projection going on here is PBers claiming they know what Labour voters were thinking during the election, despite the fact they didn't actually speak to (m)any of them.
As a musician, just about everyone I know is a Corbynista. It wasn't about Brexit for them - it was 'I want more, and those rich bastard tories should pay for it' mixed with a bit of 'Social Justice' (whatever that really means), plus "We hate the fucking Tories - They're scum". There was a lot of crazy stuff floating about, mostly shared from the Canary or meme sites, most of which was batshit conspiracy level stuff. My Facebook feed was a study in collective hysteria.
The anger and hate was amazing - the idea that Labour ran some kind of positive message is so alien to my experience of it on the ground. Their hard core support was more aggressive and negative than anything I've ever seen in politics in my lifetime (and I'm no kid).
Interesting observations. From experience of friends and family members there is also a re-energising of old lefties for a final hurra and a lot of youthful idealism but the irrational hatred is a major force. How can it be defused without doing a lot of damage? Will it dissipate? Has the internet amplified this?
The internet has amplified the hate end of the spectrum massively. Twitter is horrible. Facebook tends to amplify a lot because people deal in their own circles, so it just echoes around and the interlopers like myself just observe silently (because there's a work risk factor when people throw around the term 'Evil' about their ideological opponents).
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
Perhaps it was more than a few people. If so, feck knows where we are.
I think that's right or perhaps they just thought he was less Brexity than Theresa. But now they know different I'm hoping for fireworks. A pity as I was just starting to warm to him.
There's one thing for certain, politics is definitely not boring now. That was the fear before the election.
Reckon you could be heading to the polls again shortly ?
This is an interesting question with no clear and definitive answer but....
My reading is that Corbyn is a diffident Remainer. He has a natural suspicion of the EU, maybe even a dislike, but he doesn't regard it as all that important and as long as we were in the EU he was probably ok with it in a 'let's just make the best of it' kind of way. Following the referendum however, he would certainly have felt that the result had to be respected. This is entirely consistent with his diffidently held views. Again, he would have accepted a 'let's make the most of it' attitude. He would have been encouraged in this by the definite preference amongst his WWC supporters for Brexit. Should they change their minds, however, I suspect Corbyn would too and not just out of political expedience (although that would naturally enough be a factor.) He would simply want to respect their wishes just as he currently respects those of the majority of voters at the referendum.
That leaves the problem of the Labour Remainers, of which I am one. I should say that our attitude tends to be that you have to respect the referendum result and do what you can to make Brexit work, so there is no direct conflict with Corbyn there, nor would there be if he changes his mind. So there is no need for this to become a big deal for Labour.
Of course there are some of us who think that it is only a question of time before it becomes apparent not just to the WWC but even unto the dogs in the street that Brexit was the biggest clusterfuck since Lord North lost the Colonies, and so in due course I would expect Corbyn and most others with a pulse to do what they can to get us out of the shit, but that's just a personal opinion.
And if it's wrong, and Brexit is a storming success, we all win, so that's great. In fact I would even be prepared in these circumstances to break with all know PB precedent and admit publicly here that I was wrong.
Have a feeling the Remainer bubble was burst for good yesterday.
Corbyn has been anti EU all along, he managed to kid a few gullible lefties but then that's not hard.
Fooling a few gullible lefties is one thing... But what about all those daft remain Tories who voted for him in seats like Canterbury?
Bet they're feeling pretty darn stupid now!
The irony is that I have a feeling if Theresa had got her landslide she'd probably have gone for a softer Brexit because it would have protected her from the Peter Bone's of the Tory Party,
The hung parliament has actually made a hard Brexit much more probable.
I agree, the funniest thing for me is the silence of the usually bombastic Remainers on here. They'd managed to convince themselves it wasn't going to happen despite all the evidence to the contrary.
Incidentally I live near Canterbury and still find it hard to believe
The biggest threat to Brexit is, and has always been, a major recession between now and the end of the Article 50 process.
If the funny bit is that any recession will likely be the consequence of our economy being unbalanced (blame Mr Osborne), rather than Brexit. (Although, of course, there is no doubt that if a "cliff edge Brexit" looks probable, then investment levels will fall.)
My personal view is that if - 12 months from now - the economy is contracting, unemployment is rising, and people are suffering from negative equity, then there might be a very many MPs that get cold feet about Brexit.
I think you're right and I said here previously that some Remainers were hoping for recession so they could blame Brexit.
However I see no reason at all that we'll enter recession in the next 12 months. We will sooner or later, its what happens, but not yet. Our economy is built on debt which is unsustainable, a Labour govt guarantees recession.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
The only projection going on here is PBers claiming they know what Labour voters were thinking during the election, despite the fact they didn't actually speak to (m)any of them.
As a musician, just about everyone I know is a Corbynista. It wasn't about Brexit for them - it was 'I want more, and those rich bastard tories should pay for it' mixed with a bit of 'Social Justice' (whatever that really means), plus "We hate the fucking Tories - They're scum". There was a lot of crazy stuff floating about, mostly shared from the Canary or meme sites, most of which was batshit conspiracy level stuff. My Facebook feed was a study in collective hysteria.
The anger and hate was amazing - the idea that Labour ran some kind of positive message is so alien to my experience of it on the ground. Their hard core support was more aggressive and negative than anything I've ever seen in politics in my lifetime (and I'm no kid).
Interesting observations. From experience of friends and family members there is also a re-energising of old lefties for a final hurra and a lot of youthful idealism but the irrational hatred is a major force. How can it be defused without doing a lot of damage? Will it dissipate? Has the internet amplified this?
I think the Internet has amplified it, but we can't uninvent it.
The level of aggression and rudeness in debate seems to have gone up several notches since the Brexit referendum. QT is even more unwatchable than normal as the audience now openly jeer, boo and shout out abuse. This didn't happen a few years ago.
I fear it will all get worse before it gets better.
For starters, the disillusionment when Brexit (if it actually happens - I doubt it myself), fails to make any positive difference to people's lives will be high.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
The only projection going on here is PBers claiming they know what Labour voters were thinking during the election, despite the fact they didn't actually speak to (m)any of them.
As a musician, just about everyone I know is a Corbynista. It wasn't about Brexit for them - it was 'I want more, and those rich bastard tories should pay for it' mixed with a bit of 'Social Justice' (whatever that really means), plus "We hate the fucking Tories - They're scum". There was a lot of crazy stuff floating about, mostly shared from the Canary or meme sites, most of which was batshit conspiracy level stuff. My Facebook feed was a study in collective hysteria.
The anger and hate was amazing - the idea that Labour ran some kind of positive message is so alien to my experience of it on the ground. Their hard core support was more aggressive and negative than anything I've ever seen in politics in my lifetime (and I'm no kid).
Interesting observations. From experience of friends and family members there is also a re-energising of old lefties for a final hurra and a lot of youthful idealism but the irrational hatred is a major force. How can it be defused without doing a lot of damage? Will it dissipate? Has the internet amplified this?
The internet has amplified the hate end of the spectrum massively. Twitter is horrible. Facebook tends to amplify a lot because people deal in their own circles, so it just echoes around and the interlopers like myself just observe silently (because there's a work risk factor when people throw around the term 'Evil' about their ideological opponents).
Yes, for the first time in my life I weigh up whether to engage political discussions or simply keep my head down to avoid really unpleasant stressful arguments.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
Perhaps it was more than a few people. If so, feck knows where we are.
I think that's right or perhaps they just thought he was less Brexity than Theresa. But now they know different I'm hoping for fireworks. A pity as I was just starting to warm to him.
Corbyn has a Bennite detestation for the EU project. I'm amazed you hadn't grasped that.
Corbyn and co. think the EU stifles socialism, Tory Leavers think it stifles capitalism. There's a bit of truth in both positions.
Any Abba song would do, surely? I find them indistinguishable. The clunky English is entertaining though. "No more ace to play"; "feeling blue" (has anyone ever said that, ever?); "there's not I think a single episode of Dallas that I didn't see".
I try not to be sectarian about musical tastes (can't understand the people who DESPISE someone for preferring a particular type of music) but I'm in the TSE camp of thinking that Abba's music has never been surpassed, and is richly varied too. I even like the lyrics (the cheek of making the English version of Fernando for the US market being about Mexican insurgents against the US is amusing, especially as the Swedish original is quite different), and I think I've actually said all three of those phrases (yes I liked Dallas too!).
Like Patrick Bateman's love of Huey Lewis and the News and Phil Collins. Chillingly psychopathic.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
Perhaps it was more than a few people. If so, feck knows where we are.
There's one thing for certain, politics is definitely not boring now. That was the fear before the election.
Reckon you could be heading to the polls again shortly ?
This is an interesting question with no clear and definitive answer but....
My reading is that Corbyn is a diffident Remainer. He has a natural suspicion of the EU, maybe even a dislike, but he doesn't regard it as all that important and as long as we were in the EU he was probably ok with it in a 'let's just make the best of it' kind of way. Following the referendum however, he would certainly have felt that the result had to be respected. This is entirely consistent with his diffidently held views. Again, he would have accepted a 'let's make the most of it' attitude. He would have been encouraged in this by the definite preference amongst his WWC supporters for Brexit. Should they change their minds, however, I suspect Corbyn would too and not just out of political expedience (although that would naturally enough be a factor.) He would simply want to respect their wishes just as he currently respects those of the majority of voters at the referendum.
That leaves the problem of the Labour Remainers, of which I am one. I should say that our attitude tends to be that you have to respect the referendum result and do what you can to make Brexit work, so there is no direct conflict with Corbyn there, nor would there be if he changes his mind. So there is no need for this to become a big deal for Labour.
Of course there are some of us who think that it is only a question of time before it becomes apparent not just to the WWC but even unto the dogs in the street that Brexit was the biggest clusterfuck since Lord North lost the Colonies, and so in due course I would expect Corbyn and most others with a pulse to do what they can to get us out of the shit, but that's just a personal opinion.
And if it's wrong, and Brexit is a storming success, we all win, so that's great. In fact I would even be prepared in these circumstances to break with all know PB precedent and admit publicly here that I was wrong.
Two men chatting in the queue behind me at the UK Border last night. One mentioned Northern Ireland, the other said he was worried things would turn nasty there, and it would be May's fault if that happens.
So there we have it. From Strong & Stable, via Weak & Wonky, to Useless & Dangerous.
The only people responsible for it turning nasty here would be the nasty people doing the nasty things.
Any other take is wrong and doesn't wash with me for a second.
Whether or not one likes the DUP, they are Northern Ireland's elected representatives. The idea that no other party must deal with them, because the IRA would resume violence if they did, would be a major blow to democracy.
The biggest threat to Brexit is, and has always been, a major recession between now and the end of the Article 50 process.
If the funny bit is that any recession will likely be the consequence of our economy being unbalanced (blame Mr Osborne), rather than Brexit. (Although, of course, there is no doubt that if a "cliff edge Brexit" looks probable, then investment levels will fall.)
My personal view is that if - 12 months from now - the economy is contracting, unemployment is rising, and people are suffering from negative equity, then there might be a very many MPs that get cold feet about Brexit.
This morning's savings ratio figures, combined with poor consumer confidence, signal a quite sharp downturn in consumer spending. When people think times are uncertain, they tend to increase the savings ratio - which means cutting spending.
Some things confuse me about the terminology - Are accrued DC pension pots/housing equity included in "savings" ? Also is "disposable" income net income after tax, or income after tax and bills ?
Miss DiCanio, reminds me of hearing someone say the only men who like musicals are gay. Or psychopathic.
Mr. E, Twitter can be horrendous, although, for balance, I had an eminently civilised discussion with a total stranger on Twitter a few months ago about historical migration to the UK. We had completely opposing views, but it was perfectly polite, and rather a pleasant chat.
Have a feeling the Remainer bubble was burst for good yesterday.
Corbyn has been anti EU all along, he managed to kid a few gullible lefties but then that's not hard.
Fooling a few gullible lefties is one thing... But what about all those daft remain Tories who voted for him in seats like Canterbury?
Bet they're feeling pretty darn stupid now!
The irony is that I have a feeling if Theresa had got her landslide she'd probably have gone for a softer Brexit because it would have protected her from the Peter Bone's of the Tory Party,
The hung parliament has actually made a hard Brexit much more probable.
I agree, the funniest thing for me is the silence of the usually bombastic Remainers on here. They'd managed to convince themselves it wasn't going to happen despite all the evidence to the contrary.
Incidentally I live near Canterbury and still find it hard to believe
I think the Tory right is going to understand the full meaning of a Pyrrhic victory when Brexit ushers in a Corbyn government unfettered by the constraints of the EU.
I am becoming somewhat concerned at the media coverage of Grenfell. Without doubt the Council has lost the people and their behavior has been a disgrace but when they were hounded at their meeting yesterday by the press and residents you do have to accept that the Council leaders are in a difficult position, probably due to legal advice, and are not able to comment on anything that could sub prejudice for them or the public inquiry.
The media are all over the fact that the Council used a cheaper cladding saving circa £300,000 but if this cladding was legal under building regulations it is the Council's responsibility to save costs wherever possible and this must have happened across the country by councils controlled by labour and lib dem's alike.
The failures seems to be systemic and have gone on for decades. It has been reported that in 2007 the Blair government transferred fire safety from the fire service to local building inspectors and that fire safety is not undertaken in buildings by the fire service. I have no idea if this is true but it is that does give rise to alarm
The emotions are raw and will remain so for years and there is no easy way to resolve the matter, certainly without the finding of the inquiry and the police investigations.
I believe it is time for the media to reflect that they are not experts themselves, as some seem to think they are, and all politicians need to realize that calm reflection and consideration is the way forward
I think you're right and I said here previously that some Remainers were hoping for recession so they could blame Brexit.
However I see no reason at all that we'll enter recession in the next 12 months. We will sooner or later, its what happens, but not yet. Our economy is built on debt which is unsustainable, a Labour govt guarantees recession.
You see no reason?
Incomes are now going up less than inflation, while our savings rate is at a 50 year low.
Broadly, recessions and expansions, are a consequence of rising or falling savings rates. Our household savings rate is among the lowest in the world, and consumers have been keeping spending levels up by increasing borrowing. Outstanding credit card balances are up 9.7% year-over-year, against nominal incomes up less than 2%.
At some point our household savings rate will need to move from 3% to an equilibrium level of 9-10%. Given inevitable overshoot, it's more likely to go to 14-15%. A 12% change in the household savings rate is worse than the move we had in 1990-92, and is equivalent to the level required to rebalance the Spanish economy in 2010 to 2013.
The irony is that these imbalances are the fault of George Osborne and Gordon Brown, not Brexit. But where do you think the blame will fall?
Any Abba song would do, surely? I find them indistinguishable. The clunky English is entertaining though. "No more ace to play"; "feeling blue" (has anyone ever said that, ever?); "there's not I think a single episode of Dallas that I didn't see".
I try not to be sectarian about musical tastes (can't understand the people who DESPISE someone for preferring a particular type of music) but I'm in the TSE camp of thinking that Abba's music has never been surpassed, and is richly varied too. I even like the lyrics (the cheek of making the English version of Fernando for the US market being about Mexican insurgents against the US is amusing, especially as the Swedish original is quite different), and I think I've actually said all three of those phrases (yes I liked Dallas too!).
Like Patrick Bateman's love of Huey Lewis and the News and Phil Collins. Chillingly psychopathic.
The biggest threat to Brexit is, and has always been, a major recession between now and the end of the Article 50 process.
If the funny bit is that any recession will likely be the consequence of our economy being unbalanced (blame Mr Osborne), rather than Brexit. (Although, of course, there is no doubt that if a "cliff edge Brexit" looks probable, then investment levels will fall.)
My personal view is that if - 12 months from now - the economy is contracting, unemployment is rising, and people are suffering from negative equity, then there might be a very many MPs that get cold feet about Brexit.
This morning's savings ratio figures, combined with poor consumer confidence, signal a quite sharp downturn in consumer spending. When people think times are uncertain, they tend to increase the savings ratio - which means cutting spending.
What the UK desperately needs in the long run is a sustained increase in the savings ratio. Positive real interest rates for savings would help, but we aren't there yet, nearly 10 years after the beginning of the Great Recession.
Have a feeling the Remainer bubble was burst for good yesterday.
Corbyn has been anti EU all along, he managed to kid a few gullible lefties but then that's not hard.
Fooling a few gullible lefties is one thing... But what about all those daft remain Tories who voted for him in seats like Canterbury?
Bet they're feeling pretty darn stupid now!
The irony is that I have a feeling if Theresa had got her landslide she'd probably have gone for a softer Brexit because it would have protected her from the Peter Bone's of the Tory Party,
The hung parliament has actually made a hard Brexit much more probable.
I agree, the funniest thing for me is the silence of the usually bombastic Remainers on here. They'd managed to convince themselves it wasn't going to happen despite all the evidence to the contrary.
Incidentally I live near Canterbury and still find it hard to believe
The biggest threat to Brexit is, and has always been, a major recession between now and the end of the Article 50 process.
If the funny bit is that any recession will likely be the consequence of our economy being unbalanced (blame Mr Osborne), rather than Brexit. (Although, of course, there is no doubt that if a "cliff edge Brexit" looks probable, then investment levels will fall.)
My personal view is that if - 12 months from now - the economy is contracting, unemployment is rising, and people are suffering from negative equity, then there might be a very many MPs that get cold feet about Brexit.
Cold feet are one thing. Can you imagine the political will to revoke A50? It would be a massive political crisis and I don't know if the political class as a whole could cope with it.
Miss DiCanio, reminds me of hearing someone say the only men who like musicals are gay. Or psychopathic.
Mr. E, Twitter can be horrendous, although, for balance, I had an eminently civilised discussion with a total stranger on Twitter a few months ago about historical migration to the UK. We had completely opposing views, but it was perfectly polite, and rather a pleasant chat.
A grown man who publicly expresses a love for ABBA is almost certainly both. A potential or actual Jeffrey Dahmer type.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
The only projection going on here is PBers claiming they know what Labour voters were thinking during the election, despite the fact they didn't actually speak to (m)any of them.
I wouldn't presume to claim to know what Labour voters generally think. But, I think we can make an educated guess about the motives of people who switched from Conservative to Labour in places like Kensington, Canterbury, and Battersea.
Yep - and Warwick & Leamington. But I suspect it was the tone of the Tory language on Brexit and the whole confrontational approach the party seemed to adopt that, more than anything else, helped to drive a lot of Remain voters away. Citizens of nowhere, saboteurs, enemies of the people, accusing Brussels of trying to influence the election etc; the mood music was appalling. And in a two party system if you don't like option one your alternatives are very limited. Labour's problem, though, is that it applies the other way round, too. And I am absolutely certain that affluent, leafy, middle class, previously Tory-voting Warwick & Leamington has not suddenly embraced red-blooded socialism, or anything close to it.
I lived in Warwick and Leamington in 2001 as a student and campaigned for the Tories and Labour won it by 5000 votes. I also stood for council in 2003 in Brunswick in an election where the Tories won most councillors (thanks to Warwick and the villages) but not a majority. It has now long been a marginal and once the villages went in the pre 2010 boundary changes it now leans Labour, hence Labour won the seat despite failing to win nationally. Indeed Leamington is full of students and has a high ethnic minority population and has not even got 1 Tory councillor now, it is only Warwick where the Tories do have councillors which gives the Tories a chance of ever retaking the seat again
The biggest threat to Brexit is, and has always been, a major recession between now and the end of the Article 50 process.
If the funny bit is that any recession will likely be the consequence of our economy being unbalanced (blame Mr Osborne), rather than Brexit. (Although, of course, there is no doubt that if a "cliff edge Brexit" looks probable, then investment levels will fall.)
My personal view is that if - 12 months from now - the economy is contracting, unemployment is rising, and people are suffering from negative equity, then there might be a very many MPs that get cold feet about Brexit.
This morning's savings ratio figures, combined with poor consumer confidence, signal a quite sharp downturn in consumer spending. When people think times are uncertain, they tend to increase the savings ratio - which means cutting spending.
The recessionary spiral is:
- falling confidence causes people to spend less - lower spending means that firms lay off staff and unemployment rises - rising unemployment lowers confidence further and the saving rate increases
Rinse and repeat.
If we have a simultaneous investment slowdown - caused by firms reigning in investment plans because they are concerned about the possibility of cliff edge Brexit - then it could get really nasty.
I think you're right and I said here previously that some Remainers were hoping for recession so they could blame Brexit.
However I see no reason at all that we'll enter recession in the next 12 months. We will sooner or later, its what happens, but not yet. Our economy is built on debt which is unsustainable, a Labour govt guarantees recession.
You see no reason?
Incomes are now going up less than inflation, while our savings rate is at a 50 year low.
Broadly, recessions and expansions, are a consequence of rising or falling savings rates. Our household savings rate is among the lowest in the world, and consumers have been keeping spending levels up by increasing borrowing. Outstanding credit card balances are up 9.7% year-over-year, against nominal incomes up less than 2%.
At some point our household savings rate will need to move from 3% to an equilibrium level of 9-10%. Given inevitable overshoot, it's more likely to go to 14-15%. A 12% change in the household savings rate is worse than the move we had in 1990-92, and is equivalent to the level required to rebalance the Spanish economy in 2010 to 2013.
The irony is that these imbalances are the fault of George Osborne and Gordon Brown, not Brexit. But where do you think the blame will fall?
You make good points, as I said the economy is based on debt, it has to end in tears. But recessions creep up slowly (politicians are too busy to see it) and I just can't see it for a few years. The caveat is an election and Labour govt, which would guarantee it almost immediately.
Have a feeling the Remainer bubble was burst for good yesterday.
Corbyn has been anti EU all along, he managed to kid a few gullible lefties but then that's not hard.
Fooling a few gullible lefties is one thing... But what about all those daft remain Tories who voted for him in seats like Canterbury?
Bet they're feeling pretty darn stupid now!
The irony is that I have a feeling if Theresa had got her landslide she'd probably have gone for a softer Brexit because it would have protected her from the Peter Bone's of the Tory Party,
The hung parliament has actually made a hard Brexit much more probable.
I agree, the funniest thing for me is the silence of the usually bombastic Remainers on here. They'd managed to convince themselves it wasn't going to happen despite all the evidence to the contrary.
Incidentally I live near Canterbury and still find it hard to believe
The biggest threat to Brexit is, and has always been, a major recession between now and the end of the Article 50 process.
If the funny bit is that any recession will likely be the consequence of our economy being unbalanced (blame Mr Osborne), rather than Brexit. (Although, of course, there is no doubt that if a "cliff edge Brexit" looks probable, then investment levels will fall.)
My personal view is that if - 12 months from now - the economy is contracting, unemployment is rising, and people are suffering from negative equity, then there might be a very many MPs that get cold feet about Brexit.
Cold feet are one thing. Can you imagine the political will to revoke A50? It would be a massive political crisis and I don't know if the political class as a whole could cope with it.
I think the risk lies in MPs being unwilling to endorse a *specific* Brexit deal. And if the government cannot get its Brexit Bill through parliament, then I think a 2019 General Election becomes inevitable.
The media are all over the fact that the Council used a cheaper cladding saving circa £300,000 but if this cladding was legal under building regulations it is the Council's responsibility to save costs wherever possible and this must have happened across the country by councils controlled by labour and lib dem's alike.
If the cladding is of the same fire safety standard the cost is irrelevant.
The BBC website says:
Residents had also been told their new cladding would be made of zinc. Despite their differences, both types of cladding have the same official fire rating.
It's the suitability of the fire rating for a high-rise that matters, and whether or not the actual installed panels met the standard. Cost is not the issue, safety is; expensive and unsafe is just as bad as cheap and unsafe.
I think the risk lies in MPs being unwilling to endorse a *specific* Brexit deal. And if the government cannot get its Brexit Bill through parliament, then I think a 2019 General Election becomes inevitable.
I said on election night that I struggled to comprehend a world where the Tories held Mansfield and Labour held Canterbury, still do.
To understand Canterbury, you need to realise quite how much anger there was amongst lifelong Tories that Brazier reneged on his promise to stand down.
I wish I'd asked my mum, who lives in the constituency, about this before the election as I would have been tipping it to fall.
I am becoming somewhat concerned at the media coverage of Grenfell. Without doubt the Council has lost the people and their behavior has been a disgrace but when they were hounded at their meeting yesterday by the press and residents you do have to accept that the Council leaders are in a difficult position, probably due to legal advice, and are not able to comment on anything that could sub prejudice for them or the public inquiry.
The media are all over the fact that the Council used a cheaper cladding saving circa £300,000 but if this cladding was legal under building regulations it is the Council's responsibility to save costs wherever possible and this must have happened across the country by councils controlled by labour and lib dem's alike.
The failures seems to be systemic and have gone on for decades. It has been reported that in 2007 the Blair government transferred fire safety from the fire service to local building inspectors and that fire safety is not undertaken in buildings by the fire service. I have no idea if this is true but it is that does give rise to alarm
The emotions are raw and will remain so for years and there is no easy way to resolve the matter, certainly without the finding of the inquiry and the police investigations.
I believe it is time for the media to reflect that they are not experts themselves, as some seem to think they are, and all politicians need to realize that calm reflection and consideration is the way forward
I think you're right (though I've been richly speculating about it, I've been trying not to pin down the blame).
One thing I'd like to say: zinc cladding seems beloved by architects, but IMO it's cr@p and , so it seems, expensive.
I think you're right and I said here previously that some Remainers were hoping for recession so they could blame Brexit.
However I see no reason at all that we'll enter recession in the next 12 months. We will sooner or later, its what happens, but not yet. Our economy is built on debt which is unsustainable, a Labour govt guarantees recession.
You see no reason?
Incomes are now going up less than inflation, while our savings rate is at a 50 year low.
Broadly, recessions and expansions, are a consequence of rising or falling savings rates. Our household savings rate is among the lowest in the world, and consumers have been keeping spending levels up by increasing borrowing. Outstanding credit card balances are up 9.7% year-over-year, against nominal incomes up less than 2%.
At some point our household savings rate will need to move from 3% to an equilibrium level of 9-10%. Given inevitable overshoot, it's more likely to go to 14-15%. A 12% change in the household savings rate is worse than the move we had in 1990-92, and is equivalent to the level required to rebalance the Spanish economy in 2010 to 2013.
The irony is that these imbalances are the fault of George Osborne and Gordon Brown, not Brexit. But where do you think the blame will fall?
Re your last point, Robert.....perhaps, but Brexit is hardly likely to help, is it?
I was a Labour member for years and Corbyn has never been pro-EU he just didn't have the guts to say so during the referendum campaign. I'm not buying your honest man of principle I'm afraid.
I do feel strongly about the EU and when we look back on this period of history the big mistake the party made will not be choosing a left winger per se but choosing one of only the handful of MPs that was happy to see us Brexit.
Well, I know him quite well and have discussed the EU with him in detail. I'm sceptical that you know him better? His stock in trade, which is often awkward, is that he's almost impossible to persuade to pretend he thinks something he doesn't (the best you can get is "I think X but the party thinks otherwise", as on Trident), and his "7.5 out of 10" is exactly what he thinks about the EU. There are lots of us, including me, who would be more like 9.5 out 10, but I don't think he's ever given any reason to think that he agreed with us, nor that he secretly thinks 0 out of 10.
In the end he sees it as a partnership which would be easier to continue as members but will need to continue either way; membership isn't an article of faith with him as it is for, say, Tony Blair or Ken Clarke. That's close to how most people feel, and those who love or hate membership per se are minorities.
We will have to agree to disagree, I have a very different take on where the Corbyn / Momentum project is headed. I might possibly give you the benefit of the doubt about Corbyn himself as I am not sure to what extent he is the leader or the puppet.
It is those behind him and in the shadows we need to worry about. I have observed the far left and fellow travellers in action for most of my life right back to the way Andrew Macintosh was ousted from the GLC leadership.
Not going to be in it, right? Surely it'll be Lancs/Manchester, Yorks/Leeds, Warks/Birmingham, Middlesex and Surrey/London, Glam/Cardiff, Notts/Nottingham, Durham/"Newcastle" and Hants/Southampton?
Miss DiCanio, reminds me of hearing someone say the only men who like musicals are gay. Or psychopathic.
Mr. E, Twitter can be horrendous, although, for balance, I had an eminently civilised discussion with a total stranger on Twitter a few months ago about historical migration to the UK. We had completely opposing views, but it was perfectly polite, and rather a pleasant chat.
I tend to avoid conflict on Twitter now, because there's very little constructive debate between opposing sides - it still has some use as a news aggregation service and a background messenger. But as a platform for debate, it's almost dead.
I think a few of the less well-informed people just made the assumption. Others simply projected that Tory = Brexit therefore Corbyn must = Remain.
The only projection going on here is PBers claiming they know what Labour voters were thinking during the election, despite the fact they didn't actually speak to (m)any of them.
I wouldn't presume to claim to know what Labour voters generally think. But, I think we can make an educated guess about the motives of people who switched from Conservative to Labour in places like Kensington, Canterbury, and Battersea.
Yep - and Warwick & Leamington. But I suspect it was the tone of the Tory language on Brexit and the whole confrontational approach the party seemed to adopt that, more than anything else, helped to drive a lot of Remain voters away. Citizens of nowhere, saboteurs, enemies of the people, accusing Brussels of trying to influence the election etc; the mood music was appalling. And in a two party system if you don't like option one your alternatives are very limited. Labour's problem, though, is that it applies the other way round, too. And I am absolutely certain that affluent, leafy, middle class, previously Tory-voting Warwick & Leamington has not suddenly embraced red-blooded socialism, or anything close to it.
I lived in Warwick and Leamington in 2001 as a student and campaigned for the Tories and Labour won it by 5000 votes. I also stood for council in 2003 in Brunswick in an election where the Tories won most councillors (thanks to Warwick and the villages) but not a majority. It has now long been a marginal and once the villages went in the pre 2010 boundary changes it now leans Labour, hence Labour won the seat despite failing to win nationally. Indeed Leamington is full of students and has a high ethnic minority population and has not even got 1 Tory councillor now, it is only Warwick where the Tories do have councillors which gives the Tories a chance of ever retaking the seat again
Have a feeling the Remainer bubble was burst for good yesterday.
Corbyn has been anti EU all along, he managed to kid a few gullible lefties but then that's not hard.
Fooling a few gullible lefties is one thing... But what about all those daft remain Tories who voted for him in seats like Canterbury?
Bet they're feeling pretty darn stupid now!
The irony is that I have a feeling if Theresa had got her landslide she'd probably have gone for a softer Brexit because it would have protected her from the Peter Bone's of the Tory Party,
The hung parliament has actually made a hard Brexit much more probable.
I agree, the funniest thing for me is the silence of the usually bombastic Remainers on here. They'd managed to convince themselves it wasn't going to happen despite all the evidence to the contrary.
Incidentally I live near Canterbury and still find it hard to believe
The biggest threat to Brexit is, and has always been, a major recession between now and the end of the Article 50 process.
If the funny bit is that any recession will likely be the consequence of our economy being unbalanced (blame Mr Osborne), rather than Brexit. (Although, of course, there is no doubt that if a "cliff edge Brexit" looks probable, then investment levels will fall.)
My personal view is that if - 12 months from now - the economy is contracting, unemployment is rising, and people are suffering from negative equity, then there might be a very many MPs that get cold feet about Brexit.
Cold feet are one thing. Can you imagine the political will to revoke A50? It would be a massive political crisis and I don't know if the political class as a whole could cope with it.
In that scenario they will throw the think back to the voters in a second referendum and hope they get them off the hook
Have a feeling the Remainer bubble was burst for good yesterday.
Corbyn has been anti EU all along, he managed to kid a few gullible lefties but then that's not hard.
Fooling a few gullible lefties is one thing... But what about all those daft remain Tories who voted for him in seats like Canterbury?
Bet they're feeling pretty darn stupid now!
The irony is that I have a feeling if Theresa had got her landslide she'd probably have gone for a softer Brexit because it would have protected her from the Peter Bone's of the Tory Party,
The hung parliament has actually made a hard Brexit much more probable.
I agree, the funniest thing for me is the silence of the usually bombastic Remainers on here. They'd managed to convince themselves it wasn't going to happen despite all the evidence to the contrary.
Incidentally I live near Canterbury and still find it hard to believe
I think the Tory right is going to understand the full meaning of a Pyrrhic victory when Brexit ushers in a Corbyn government unfettered by the constraints of the EU.
I'm a Remainer and I'm not being quiet. I still don't think it will happen.
I was a Labour member for years and Corbyn has never been pro-EU he just didn't have the guts to say so during the referendum campaign. I'm not buying your honest man of principle I'm afraid.
I do feel strongly about the EU and when we look back on this period of history the big mistake the party made will not be choosing a left winger per se but choosing one of only the handful of MPs that was happy to see us Brexit.
Well, I know him quite well and have discussed the EU with him in detail. I'm sceptical that you know him better? His stock in trade, which is often awkward, is that he's almost impossible to persuade to pretend he thinks something he doesn't (the best you can get is "I think X but the party thinks otherwise", as on Trident), and his "7.5 out of 10" is exactly what he thinks about the EU. There are lots of us, including me, who would be more like 9.5 out 10, but I don't think he's ever given any reason to think that he agreed with us, nor that he secretly thinks 0 out of 10.
In the end he sees it as a partnership which would be easier to continue as members but will need to continue either way; membership isn't an article of faith with him as it is for, say, Tony Blair or Ken Clarke. That's close to how most people feel, and those who love or hate membership per se are minorities.
I am pole axed by the suggestion that a refusal to pretend to think what he doesn't, is a flaw in a politician. Corbyn's very obvious integrity is pretty much the only good thing about him.
Comments
I imagine highlights will be available for the peasantry, if they can avoid spoilers.
Perhaps we just didn't understand the actual composition or the political leanings of their voter base?
https://tinyurl.com/yagt9kya
My view is that Sky are going to have a very difficult making more money attracting customers to take up one sport (e.g. cricket) than they will lose from people who will ditch sports that they don't want.
@DanielJHannan: @DouglasCarswell @Tate 2/3 "We can win in one of two circumstances: a visible failure of the renegotiation, or one of the two main party leaders being neutral."
@DanielJHannan: @DouglasCarswell @Tate 3/3 In the event, we got both. Thanks @jeremycorbyn.
#OhJeremyCorbyn
http://www.libdemvoice.org/the-party-of-i-told-you-so-54731.html
Shame BT doesn't make a bid for it.
Incidentally I live near Canterbury and still find it hard to believe
Jezza is firmly cemented in place as Lab leader for now.
The 3 constituencies you mention are chockful of younger people who we know liked Corbyn's economic and inequality messages. Many of them may also have happened to vote Remain but "correlation does not equal causation" and all that.
Admittedly I had the luxury of abstaining risklessly, because I live in a Tory constituency with lots of Jews in it. As Labour is now a party intensely relaxed about anti-Semitism, from its leader down, this was never going to do anything but stay Tory. But with things like Brexit, we really needed a bar that if not passed amounted to "start again and make some decent arguments this time".
Labour supporting or not supporting Brexit will not improve the Conservatives' reputation for competence and rationality with these people. Indeed, it's hard to see how the Conservatives could win that back.
Brokenshire should have canned the Assembly and cut off our pay yesterday. It's pathetic how the tail wags the dog. He seems utterly, painfully weak.
But I said he'd do nothing early yesterday. I was right.
He said there would be 'serious and profound consequences' of a failure to reach a deal by yesterday.
Those consequences seem to be, erm, totally non-existent but he might decide to do something on Monday. Maybe.
The anger and hate was amazing - the idea that Labour ran some kind of positive message is so alien to my experience of it on the ground. Their hard core support was more aggressive and negative than anything I've ever seen in politics in my lifetime (and I'm no kid).
In the end he sees it as a partnership which would be easier to continue as members but will need to continue either way; membership isn't an article of faith with him as it is for, say, Tony Blair or Ken Clarke. That's close to how most people feel, and those who love or hate membership per se are minorities.
Two men chatting in the queue behind me at the UK Border last night. One mentioned Northern Ireland, the other said he was worried things would turn nasty there, and it would be May's fault if that happens.
So there we have it. From Strong & Stable, via Weak & Wonky, to Useless & Dangerous.
Are people really voting NOTA because of those specific people, or are they just anti-politics/politicans in general.
Any other take is wrong and doesn't wash with me for a second.
If the funny bit is that any recession will likely be the consequence of our economy being unbalanced (blame Mr Osborne), rather than Brexit. (Although, of course, there is no doubt that if a "cliff edge Brexit" looks probable, then investment levels will fall.)
My personal view is that if - 12 months from now - the economy is contracting, unemployment is rising, and people are suffering from negative equity, then there might be a very many MPs that get cold feet about Brexit.
My reading is that Corbyn is a diffident Remainer. He has a natural suspicion of the EU, maybe even a dislike, but he doesn't regard it as all that important and as long as we were in the EU he was probably ok with it in a 'let's just make the best of it' kind of way. Following the referendum however, he would certainly have felt that the result had to be respected. This is entirely consistent with his diffidently held views. Again, he would have accepted a 'let's make the most of it' attitude. He would have been encouraged in this by the definite preference amongst his WWC supporters for Brexit. Should they change their minds, however, I suspect Corbyn would too and not just out of political expedience (although that would naturally enough be a factor.) He would simply want to respect their wishes just as he currently respects those of the majority of voters at the referendum.
That leaves the problem of the Labour Remainers, of which I am one. I should say that our attitude tends to be that you have to respect the referendum result and do what you can to make Brexit work, so there is no direct conflict with Corbyn there, nor would there be if he changes his mind. So there is no need for this to become a big deal for Labour.
Of course there are some of us who think that it is only a question of time before it becomes apparent not just to the WWC but even unto the dogs in the street that Brexit was the biggest clusterfuck since Lord North lost the Colonies, and so in due course I would expect Corbyn and most others with a pulse to do what they can to get us out of the shit, but that's just a personal opinion.
And if it's wrong, and Brexit is a storming success, we all win, so that's great. In fact I would even be prepared in these circumstances to break with all know PB precedent and admit publicly here that I was wrong.
However I see no reason at all that we'll enter recession in the next 12 months. We will sooner or later, its what happens, but not yet. Our economy is built on debt which is unsustainable, a Labour govt guarantees recession.
The level of aggression and rudeness in debate seems to have gone up several notches since the Brexit referendum. QT is even more unwatchable than normal as the audience now openly jeer, boo and shout out abuse. This didn't happen a few years ago.
I fear it will all get worse before it gets better.
For starters, the disillusionment when Brexit (if it actually happens - I doubt it myself), fails to make any positive difference to people's lives will be high.
Also is "disposable" income net income after tax, or income after tax and bills ?
Mr. E, Twitter can be horrendous, although, for balance, I had an eminently civilised discussion with a total stranger on Twitter a few months ago about historical migration to the UK. We had completely opposing views, but it was perfectly polite, and rather a pleasant chat.
@IanDunt: Idea Corbyn campaigns for hard Brexit, whips for hard Brexit, sacks front benchers who oppose hard Brexit & then becomes Remainer is mad.
The EU is an impediment to his Marxist utopia
The media are all over the fact that the Council used a cheaper cladding saving circa £300,000 but if this cladding was legal under building regulations it is the Council's responsibility to save costs wherever possible and this must have happened across the country by councils controlled by labour and lib dem's alike.
The failures seems to be systemic and have gone on for decades. It has been reported that in 2007 the Blair government transferred fire safety from the fire service to local building inspectors and that fire safety is not undertaken in buildings by the fire service. I have no idea if this is true but it is that does give rise to alarm
The emotions are raw and will remain so for years and there is no easy way to resolve the matter, certainly without the finding of the inquiry and the police investigations.
I believe it is time for the media to reflect that they are not experts themselves, as some seem to think they are, and all politicians need to realize that calm reflection and consideration is the way forward
Incomes are now going up less than inflation, while our savings rate is at a 50 year low.
Broadly, recessions and expansions, are a consequence of rising or falling savings rates. Our household savings rate is among the lowest in the world, and consumers have been keeping spending levels up by increasing borrowing. Outstanding credit card balances are up 9.7% year-over-year, against nominal incomes up less than 2%.
At some point our household savings rate will need to move from 3% to an equilibrium level of 9-10%. Given inevitable overshoot, it's more likely to go to 14-15%. A 12% change in the household savings rate is worse than the move we had in 1990-92, and is equivalent to the level required to rebalance the Spanish economy in 2010 to 2013.
The irony is that these imbalances are the fault of George Osborne and Gordon Brown, not Brexit. But where do you think the blame will fall?
I mean, Radiohead ? Who on Earth likes them?
And Corbyn. And Brexit.
- falling confidence causes people to spend less
- lower spending means that firms lay off staff and unemployment rises
- rising unemployment lowers confidence further and the saving rate increases
Rinse and repeat.
If we have a simultaneous investment slowdown - caused by firms reigning in investment plans because they are concerned about the possibility of cliff edge Brexit - then it could get really nasty.
The BBC website says:
Residents had also been told their new cladding would be made of zinc. Despite their differences, both types of cladding have the same official fire rating.
It's the suitability of the fire rating for a high-rise that matters, and whether or not the actual installed panels met the standard. Cost is not the issue, safety is; expensive and unsafe is just as bad as cheap and unsafe.
This is verging on "fake news".
One thing I'd like to say: zinc cladding seems beloved by architects, but IMO it's cr@p and , so it seems, expensive.
But this is a strange "exclusive". Everyone has known about the conference votes for months.
It is those behind him and in the shadows we need to worry about. I have observed the far left and fellow travellers in action for most of my life right back to the way Andrew Macintosh was ousted from the GLC leadership.