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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks makes his first next general election bet: LAB
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meeks makes his first next general election bet: LAB to win most seats
The Conservatives are in a wretched state. Everything Theresa May has touched recently has turned to ashes. Jeremy Corbyn in his response to the Queen’s Speech stated that the government has no majority, no mandate and no plan. Jeremy Corbyn is right.
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Then again, people got the 2017 GE very wrong on a lot shorter timescales. However I foresee much more that could go wrong for a governing party than for a nonsensical opposition.
Betting way in advance is always bold. I actually had money on NOM placed shortly after the 2015 election, but cashed out during the 2017 campaign, sadly.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40380584
How much more shitty cladding is out there?
I thought non confirmed deaths were not speculated on. Why is the word "feared" being used here ?!
And the intensity of the fire may well have totally consumed the remains of some unfortunate enough to have perished.
What's up with that ?
Sorry I don't see Corbyn having ever sunk his teeth into the Tories before and I cannot see him changing his behaviour now. People are rushing to conclusions about the next 5 years based on the last 5 weeks.
Loved this, perfect for all us trying to work out our Schengens from our EEAs - maybe someone cleverer could post the image itself
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/23/bbc-question-time-audience-member-kicked-show-david-dimbleby/
As an example, remember this recent fubar, where it was luck no-one got killed?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39580308
The report into this was published earlier this year, and was quite interesting.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40370331
As it turned out, those predictions were a touch pessimistic.
Jackanory bob - I see you had another pop at me on the PT ,so lets try again -
You posted last night these exact words - It was you who said you would celebrate mass EU deportations.
Where did I post that please ?
Come on big boy.
Thats how negoiations work.
Lets just remember what he said about YouGov model -
https://twitter.com/Messina2012/status/869928746974949378
The attempts to salvage reputations here is astonishing in it's brazenness.
I could see either major party doing substantially better or worse next time.
It's also worth noting that in both 2015 and 2017 the pollsters generally were accurate with small parties and inaccurate with large ones.
Clearly many people in many local authorities (and national government) are going to be in a lot of trouble. But I think there are also many questions for the fire brigade to answer.
I couldn't in all honesty recommend the other side.
So he was elected by democratically elected leaders. It is not like he led a military coup.
In addition, our first move is portrayed as generous and open, the EUs first move will be to ask for more and set out a divorce demand.
Tactically pretty sound manouvere.
terms preventing players from withdrawing any money they have deposited in their account unless they have wagered its value through in full once, or several times
That one actually seems reasonable doesn't it (assuming it's a 1x wagering requirement)? Otherwise people could use the gambling site as a unregulated money transfer or money laundering service.
A new PM would imply a new election before the expiry of the full five years. I find it trickier to guess just when it might be because it's hard to envisage exactly what triggers it, but on the other hand, I just can't see a minority Government going the full distance.
So the next question is, do Labour win it, whenever it happens? Well, we're getting used to surprises but you have to go on form, and all the form suggests they should be hot favorites. How hot? Well, we all have our views on that but they have to be well odds on, so yes, Alastair is making sense, as usual, and I'm on too.
If there is a bonus involved it is a different matter, 365's requirement to wager ~ £1200 or so to crystallize the £200 was reasonable. The 40x, Blackjack counts for 1/5th of normal play through casino requirements to clear bonuses these days are not.
But I think what's neglected is the Tories will choose the time of the next election. Admittedly their recent record suggests they don't always make the right call. Labour have to vote for an election if they get the chance - the Tories can pick their moment.
The architect should agree the plans and the inspector should check that what's built matches them. Both of these should be professionally qualified and able to be disciplined by a professional body in the same way as doctors or teachers. This may require more supervision of the works by these professionals than has previously been the case.
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Oh grow up.
I can tell you're upset that Mrs May is deporting all those EU citizens you don't like.
Yep ,i bet I am in a majority if we put it to a vote in the country.
That will do me pal.
No British PM could navigate this process without being utterly crushed by the pressure. May's cack-handed attempts to paint the EU27 as divided by claiming the Poles were positive was transparent and embarrassing.
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/878183376032870401
Exchange presumably can't fail to honour winnings and withdrawals or am I confused?
https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/online-gambling#withdrawal-amounts-further-call-for-your-views
I suggest that anyone who's had a winning account shut down or restricted, has had issues with terms & conditions, or problems withdrawing money, should all add their voice.
@MikeSmithson and @TheScreamingEagles this might be a good header for a quiet day over the summer. It's open for consultation until 31st August.
Actually, that's potentially quite worrying.
However, I'm going to disagree with this bit:
"Whatever travails Labour might face, they have the enormous advantage that they will not be in government during this period. Pretty well by default they can expect to take large leads in the polls at times during this Parliament. There is no obvious reason why they should lose them."
That logic is one of the main reasons why I advocated last week that the Tories should vacate government. One year of Corbyn in Number 10 and the country might look quite differently at him (though there are, of course, all sorts of potential unintended consequences, not least the risk of the Tories going nuts at Corbyn's mishandling of Brexit and ignoring the more pressing domestic decisions).
But Corbyn does still lead Labour and while he's fine spouting platitudes on rostrums, he shows no inclination to do politics as normal and after the last two months, why would he? He and his supporters will feel utterly vindicated in toughing it out and doing it their way. They are not going to change now. But not changing will mean not upping their MSM game, continuing to focus on social media and running a sub-par shadow cabinet; it'll mean ignoring MPs and treating parliamentary discipline as a nice-to-have rather than an essential attribute of an effective opposition (particularly in a hung parliament). It'll mean policy on the hoof and not consulting front benchers before announcing decisions (not that Labour is unique in that).
In government or in opposition, Corbyn, and Corbyn's style of politics, will prove a considerable barrier to success. Yes, he did do well on June 8 in votes, vote share and seats gained. But just about any other recent Labour leader up against the same Tory leader, campaign and manifesto would have done better.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/13/eu-takes-action-against-eastern-states-for-refusing-to-take-refugees
I hope that those involved in the operations on site are being provided with sufficient counselling - the first responders and emergency services are well set up to provide this to their own, but there will be a whole load of other people working on the site in the coming months who won't be prepared for what they see and smell.
Is this not very slightly harsh? He has given a shadow cabinet position to Owen Smith, who challenged him for the leadership in 2016. Although Owen Smith does not have as high a media profile as someone like Yvette Cooper, he did win more backing among Labour MPs than the other challenger in 2016. Bringing him back into the fold is a meaningful step in my view, even if I also think that it does not go as far as he could have done.
If I buy 1,000 lots of March 2019 coffee futures on one exchange and sell 1,000 on another, or indeed sell them to myself under two names on the same exchange, and then wait 6 months, there will be a profit and loss in one direction or another. It all accrues to me. I just don't know which sockpuppet account will win and which will lose. There's no economic effect, but all the money comes back from a nice clean source.
It must be feasible to concoct something similar using sports results, where you're on both finalists, or something.
This guy quoting David Davis.
But the muttering from the likes of Verhofstadt is in precisely the opposite direction.
On betting etc: still not heard back from Ladbrokes. Not a fan of live chatting so I'll probably leave it until a bit later today and hope I get a reply.
Frankly if the EU play hardball then so should we. the UK will recover from this terrible decision, with or without the EU. Frankly its worth it to tell the French and the Germans to go feck themselves. Lets see how Germany likes 50% tarriifs on VW's, BMW's and Mercs
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IpBMqAKf-VQ