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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The pressure ratchets up on beleaguered Theresa

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  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Mr. B2, I'd clarify that. We're aren't speaking of the left, but the far left.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,310

    Mr. B2, I'd clarify that. We're aren't speaking of the left, but the far left.

    It's a sliding scale, Mr Morris. Like religion, left wing politics is more virtuous for the less power it has. Woe betide anyone who aspires to follow their own path who has the misfortune to live in a society where either the left or religion is strong.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758

    Not sure that Theresa needs any help from the likes of him. Her truckling to various manifestations of the Alt-Right is the cause of much of her problems.
    the cause of her problems is not having a decent set of policies to attract voters
  • Options
    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Lighting blue touch paper: Any opinion poll due out? - And retiring....
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,075
    stevef said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her supposedly 'disastrous' general election result still saw the Tories poll 42%, more than they have got at any general election since 1987. Yes it was disappointing given she wanted a big majority which she failed to get but nonetheless she won most votes and seats and can certainly stay PM for a while though the Tories will also certainly pick a new leader well before the next general election

    But they dont know when the next general election might be. The government could fall at any time and the Tories would not have time to elect a new leader in those circumstances.
    The government is not going to 'fall at any time' as long as the DUP supports it and even they did not that would require Sinn Fein and the LDs to vote against the government and the DUP to abstain
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,310

    Not sure that Theresa needs any help from the likes of him. Her truckling to various manifestations of the Alt-Right is the cause of much of her problems.
    the cause of her problems is not having a decent set of policies to attract voters
    Aside from her personal shortcomings, the cause of her problems is having the awareness to realise how discontented people are with the current economic settlement, without the insight to come up with any genuine solutions not the influence to persuade her own colleagues.

    The principal worry about a potential Tory leadership election is that, despite all the flak she has (rightly) attracted for her leadership style, she is actually well ahead of her colleagues in at least beginning to understand how the political world had changed.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,075

    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Observer, too late. Labour's leadership and the SWP/Momentum aren't so much a Venn diagram as a circle.

    It does look like it. Corbyn got the tone right when he went to Grenfell with the local MP and Labour's shadow housing minister. But others have got far, far too close to the rape cult. I thought long and hard about whether I should give Labour another go and rejoin after the election. I decided against. And I think I made the right decision. I have found the reactions of people like John McDonnell, Clive Lewis and Owen Jones to what has happened genuinely frightening, but totally unsurprising. David Lammy spoke in the shadow of Parliament (where change should come from) for the Labour party I want, but we are a long way from that right now. I hope NickP is right and there are no riots. If I were him, though, I would not be counting my chickens. The SWP is a vile, parasitical organisation that will be doing its very best to foment violence over the coming days.

    That is always the issue with the left. When their power is weak, they appear to stand for all the right things, and a better society, if you overlook the part that allows every person to live the life that they wish. Once they get any power, the sad truth that the left stands for controlling people's lives, or denying any power from those with whom they disagree, becomes all too evident. You only have to look at the way a local authority captured by Labour behaves towards any opposition, be it political, or from local residents, to get a foretaste of how Labour would behave in power nationally. It's a tragedy for those that wish for a better, fairer, society.
    Think you may be on something there. I also entirely agree with Southam's post. I think after voting LD at this election, I am going to be staying with them. They are lefties, but they are lefties which don't scare me. McDonnell and co do.
    Watching Nicholas and Alexander on MovieMix now, it is extremely concerning how close we are to Corbyn and McDonnell getting in, our own Trotsky and Lenin
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,310
    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her supposedly 'disastrous' general election result still saw the Tories poll 42%, more than they have got at any general election since 1987. Yes it was disappointing given she wanted a big majority which she failed to get but nonetheless she won most votes and seats and can certainly stay PM for a while though the Tories will also certainly pick a new leader well before the next general election

    But they dont know when the next general election might be. The government could fall at any time and the Tories would not have time to elect a new leader in those circumstances.
    The government is not going to 'fall at any time' as long as the DUP supports it and even they did not that would require Sinn Fein and the LDs to vote against the government and the DUP to abstain
    Except that there may come a point where the government is so pitied in office that it has the choice between giving up, or clinging to office until the last possible moment, after which it won't see power again for a generation, as in 1997.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Observer, too late. Labour's leadership and the SWP/Momentum aren't so much a Venn diagram as a circle.

    It does look like it. Corbyn got the tone right when he went to Grenfell with the local MP and Labour's shadow housing minister. But others have got far, far too close to the rape cult. I thought long and hard about whether I should give Labour another go and rejoin after the election. I decided against. And I think I made the right decision. I have found the reactions of people like John McDonnell, Clive Lewis and Owen Jones to what has happened genuinely frightening, but totally unsurprising. David Lammy spoke in the shadow of Parliament (where change should come from) for the Labour party I want, but we are a long way from that right now. I hope NickP is right and there are no riots. If I were him, though, I would not be counting my chickens. The SWP is a vile, parasitical organisation that will be doing its very best to foment violence over the coming days.

    That is always the issue with the left. When their power is weak, they appear to stand for all the right things, and a better society, if you overlook the part that allows every person to live the life that they wish. Once they get any power, the sad truth that the left stands for controlling people's lives, or denying any power from those with whom they disagree, becomes all too evident. You only have to look at the way a local authority captured by Labour behaves towards any opposition, be it political, or from local residents, to get a foretaste of how Labour would behave in power nationally. It's a tragedy for those that wish for a better, fairer, society.
    Think you may be on something there. I also entirely agree with Southam's post. I think after voting LD at this election, I am going to be staying with them. They are lefties, but they are lefties which don't scare me. McDonnell and co do.
    Trouble is you and SO with the main stream commentators ,and many on here could not predict there way down a one way street.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    IanB2 said:

    Not sure that Theresa needs any help from the likes of him. Her truckling to various manifestations of the Alt-Right is the cause of much of her problems.
    the cause of her problems is not having a decent set of policies to attract voters
    Aside from her personal shortcomings, the cause of her problems is having the awareness to realise how discontented people are with the current economic settlement, without the insight to come up with any genuine solutions not the influence to persuade her own colleagues.

    The principal worry about a potential Tory leadership election is that, despite all the flak she has (rightly) attracted for her leadership style, she is actually well ahead of her colleagues in at least beginning to understand how the political world had changed.
    the Tories atm are too caught up in their private squabbles to bother worrying about what the elctorate might want
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,984
    Yorkcity said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Observer, too late. Labour's leadership and the SWP/Momentum aren't so much a Venn diagram as a circle.

    It does look like it. Corbyn got the tone right when he went to Grenfell with the local MP and Labour's shadow housing minister. But others have got far, far too close to the rape cult. I thought long and hard about whether I should give Labour another go and rejoin after the election. I decided against. And I think I made the right decision. I have found the reactions of people like John McDonnell, Clive Lewis and Owen Jones to what has happened genuinely frightening, but totally unsurprising. David Lammy spoke in the shadow of Parliament (where change should come from) for the Labour party I want, but we are a long way from that right now. I hope NickP is right and there are no riots. If I were him, though, I would not be counting my chickens. The SWP is a vile, parasitical organisation that will be doing its very best to foment violence over the coming days.

    That is always the issue with the left. When their power is weak, they appear to stand for all the right things, and a better society, if you overlook the part that allows every person to live the life that they wish. Once they get any power, the sad truth that the left stands for controlling people's lives, or denying any power from those with whom they disagree, becomes all too evident. You only have to look at the way a local authority captured by Labour behaves towards any opposition, be it political, or from local residents, to get a foretaste of how Labour would behave in power nationally. It's a tragedy for those that wish for a better, fairer, society.
    Think you may be on something there. I also entirely agree with Southam's post. I think after voting LD at this election, I am going to be staying with them. They are lefties, but they are lefties which don't scare me. McDonnell and co do.
    Trouble is you and SO with the main stream commentators ,and many on here could not predict there way down a one way street.
    What's that got to do with anything?
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Yorkcity said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Observer, too late. Labour's leadership and the SWP/Momentum aren't so much a Venn diagram as a circle.

    It does look like it. Corbyn got the tone right when he went to Grenfell with the local MP and Labour's shadow housing minister. But others have got far, far too close to the rape cult. I thought long and hard about whether I should give Labour another go and rejoin after the election. I decided against. And I think I made the right decision. I have found the reactions of people like John McDonnell, Clive Lewis and Owen Jones to what has happened genuinely frightening, but totally unsurprising. David Lammy spoke in the shadow of Parliament (where change should come from) for the Labour party I want, but we are a long way from that right now. I hope NickP is right and there are no riots. If I were him, though, I would not be counting my chickens. The SWP is a vile, parasitical organisation that will be doing its very best to foment violence over the coming days.

    That is always the issue with the left. When their power is weak, they appear to stand for all the right things, and a better society, if you overlook the part that allows every person to live the life that they wish. Once they get any power, the sad truth that the left stands for controlling people's lives, or denying any power from those with whom they disagree, becomes all too evident. You only have to look at the way a local authority captured by Labour behaves towards any opposition, be it political, or from local residents, to get a foretaste of how Labour would behave in power nationally. It's a tragedy for those that wish for a better, fairer, society.
    Think you may be on something there. I also entirely agree with Southam's post. I think after voting LD at this election, I am going to be staying with them. They are lefties, but they are lefties which don't scare me. McDonnell and co do.
    Trouble is you and SO with the main stream commentators ,and many on here could not predict there way down a one way street.
    Don't see what that has to do with anything.

    I've never put myself up as some kind of expert or sage. If you thought I was, I'm sorry. I'm just here to express my views/read the views of others.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2017
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Observer, too late. Labour's leadership and the SWP/Momentum aren't so much a Venn diagram as a circle.

    It does look like it. Corbyn got the tone right when he went to Grenfell with the local MP and Labour's shadow housing minister. But others have got far, far too close to the rape cult. I thought long and hard about whether I should give Labour another go and rejoin after the election. I decided against. And I think I made the right decision. I have found the reactions of people like John McDonnell, Clive Lewis and Owen Jones to what has happened genuinely frightening, but totally unsurprising. David Lammy spoke in the shadow of Parliament (where change should come from) for the Labour party I want, but we are a long way from that right now. I hope NickP is right and there are no riots. If I were him, though, I would not be counting my chickens. The SWP is a vile, parasitical organisation that will be doing its very best to foment violence over the coming days.

    That is always the issue with the left. When their power is weak, they appear to stand for all the right things, and a better society, if you overlook the part that allows every person to live the life that they wish. Once they get any power, the sad truth that the left stands for controlling people's lives, or denying any power from those with whom they disagree, becomes all too evident. You only have to look at the way a local authority captured by Labour behaves towards any opposition, be it political, or from local residents, to get a foretaste of how Labour would behave in power nationally. It's a tragedy for those that wish for a better, fairer, society.
    Think you may be on something there. I also entirely agree with Southam's post. I think after voting LD at this election, I am going to be staying with them. They are lefties, but they are lefties which don't scare me. McDonnell and co do.
    Watching Nicholas and Alexander on MovieMix now, it is extremely concerning how close we are to Corbyn and McDonnell getting in, our own Trotsky and Lenin
    I wonder how all those who paid £3 for them to 'destroy' Labour feel....
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,075
    edited June 2017
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her supposedly 'disastrous' general election result still saw the Tories poll 42%, more than they have got at any general election since 1987. Yes it was disappointing given she wanted a big majority which she failed to get but nonetheless she won most votes and seats and can certainly stay PM for a while though the Tories will also certainly pick a new leader well before the next general election

    But they dont know when the next general election might be. The government could fall at any time and the Tories would not have time to elect a new leader in those circumstances.
    The government is not going to 'fall at any time' as long as the DUP supports it and even they did not that would require Sinn Fein and the LDs to vote against the government and the DUP to abstain
    Except that there may come a point where the government is so pitied in office that it has the choice between giving up, or clinging to office until the last possible moment, after which it won't see power again for a generation, as in 1997.
    Why? The government won 42% which is a greater voteshare than any governing party has had since 1997 and the fact that 42% were prepared to turnout to keep Corbyn and McDonnell out of Downing Street despite an awful Tory manifesto and a woeful Tory campaign suggests they may well do so again if the Tories get a half reasonable leader and dump their most unpopular policies. Corbyn is no Blair, he is not reassuring to Middle England, outside of student areas he scares the life out of Middle England
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,723
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her supposedly 'disastrous' general election result still saw the Tories poll 42%, more than they have got at any general election since 1987. Yes it was disappointing given she wanted a big majority which she failed to get but nonetheless she won most votes and seats and can certainly stay PM for a while though the Tories will also certainly pick a new leader well before the next general election

    But they dont know when the next general election might be. The government could fall at any time and the Tories would not have time to elect a new leader in those circumstances.
    The government is not going to 'fall at any time' as long as the DUP supports it and even they did not that would require Sinn Fein and the LDs to vote against the government and the DUP to abstain
    Except that there may come a point where the government is so pitied in office that it has the choice between giving up, or clinging to office until the last possible moment, after which it won't see power again for a generation, as in 1997.
    Why? The government won 42% which is a greater voteshare than any governing party has had since 1997 and the fact that 42% were prepared to turnout to keep Corbyn and McDonnell out of Downing Street suggests they may well do so again if the Tories get a half reasonable leader. Corbyn is no Blair, he is not reassuring to Middle England, outside of student areas he scares the life out of Middle England
    Trouble is that's the same argument that was used when predicting 120+ seat majority for the Tories.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,075

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Observer, too late. Labour's leadership and the SWP/Momentum aren't so much a Venn diagram as a circle.

    It does look like it. Corbyn got the tone right when he went to Grenfell with the local MP and Labour's shadow housing minister. But others have got far, far too close to the rape cult. I thought long and hard about whether I should give Labour another go and rejoin after the election. I decided against. And I think I made the right decision. I have found the reactions of people like John McDonnell, Clive Lewis and Owen Jones to what has happened genuinely frightening, but totally unsurprising. David Lammy spoke in the shadow of Parliament (where change should come from) for the Labour party I want, but we are a long way from that right now. I hope NickP is right and there are no riots. If I were him, though, I would not be counting my chickens. The SWP is a vile, parasitical organisation that will be doing its very best to foment violence over the coming days.

    That is always the issue with the left. When their power is weak, they appear to stand for all the right things, and a better society, if you overlook the part that allows every person to live the life that they wish. Once they get any power, the sad truth that the left stands for controlling people's lives, or denying any power from those with whom they disagree, becomes all too evident. You only have to look at the way a local authority captured by Labour behaves towards any opposition, be it political, or from local residents, to get a foretaste of how Labour would behave in power nationally. It's a tragedy for those that wish for a better, fairer, society.
    Think you may be on something there. I also entirely agree with Southam's post. I think after voting LD at this election, I am going to be staying with them. They are lefties, but they are lefties which don't scare me. McDonnell and co do.
    Watching Nicholas and Alexander on MovieMix now, it is extremely concerning how close we are to Corbyn and McDonnell getting in, our own Trotsky and Lenin
    I wonder how all those who paid £3 for them to 'destroy' Labour feel....
    Don't blame me, I voted for Burnham!
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,723

    IanB2 said:

    Not sure that Theresa needs any help from the likes of him. Her truckling to various manifestations of the Alt-Right is the cause of much of her problems.
    the cause of her problems is not having a decent set of policies to attract voters
    Aside from her personal shortcomings, the cause of her problems is having the awareness to realise how discontented people are with the current economic settlement, without the insight to come up with any genuine solutions not the influence to persuade her own colleagues.

    The principal worry about a potential Tory leadership election is that, despite all the flak she has (rightly) attracted for her leadership style, she is actually well ahead of her colleagues in at least beginning to understand how the political world had changed.
    the Tories atm are too caught up in their private squabbles to bother worrying about what the elctorate might want
    True and I can't help thinking that it's all a bit of a game to some Tories. Boris especially looks like he chose the Leave side more to further his rivalry with Cameron and to get him nearer to No 10 than through any conviction.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,984

    twitter.com/SarahSpoorUK/status/876080337197072385

    Absolute hysteria.
    BJO has gone full on Corbynista recently. :p
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,723
    OchEye said:

    Lighting blue touch paper: Any opinion poll due out? - And retiring....

    Here's one:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects Jun 15
    Public opinion towards...

    May:
    Favourable: 29% (-13)
    Unfavourable: 63% (+16)

    Corbyn:
    Fav: 46% (+10)
    Unfav: 46% (-4)

    (via @YouGov, 11-12)
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    I like the way "blood on their hands" and "how many are you going to kill today?" is alongside "Oppose Prevent". Crackpots day out I would seem.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,859
    Have to disagree with Mr Herdson on the last thread - ceding power to your opponent now because you fear a larger defeat later is not the lesser of two evils, it is highly partisan, handing over to what you think is a worse option because you do not think you can convince people of the rightness of your actions in the interim.

    The whole of politics is pretty hysterical at the moment.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,952
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758
    isam said:
    these days I suspect London has more crackpots than New York
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,075
    edited June 2017

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her supposedly 'disastrous' general election result still saw the Tories poll 42%, more than they have got at any general election since 1987. Yes it was disappointing given she wanted a big majority which she failed to get but nonetheless she won most votes and seats and can certainly stay PM for a while though the Tories will also certainly pick a new leader well before the next general election

    But they dont know when the next general election might be. The government could fall at any time and the Tories would not have time to elect a new leader in those circumstances.
    The government is not going to 'fall at any time' as long as the DUP supports it and even they did not that would require Sinn Fein and the LDs to vote against the government and the DUP to abstain
    Except that there may come a point where the government is so pitied in office that it has the choice between giving up, or clinging to office until the last possible moment, after which it won't see power again for a generation, as in 1997.
    Why? The government won 42% which is a greater voteshare than any governing party has had since 1997 and the fact that 42% were prepared to turnout to keep Corbyn and McDonnell out of Downing Street suggests they may well do so again if the Tories get a half reasonable leader. Corbyn is no Blair, he is not reassuring to Middle England, outside of student areas he scares the life out of Middle England
    Trouble is that's the same argument that was used when predicting 120+ seat majority for the Tories.
    Corbyn did well by squeezing the LD and UKIP and Green and SNP votes, very few 2015 Tories switched to Labour and indeed Labour won over 60 fewer seats than the Tories. The only seats he gained from the Tories outside London in the South and Midlands were almost all in student areas or areas with a university ie Bristol, Brighton, Canterbury, Reading, Lincoln, Derby, Plymouth, Warwick and Leamington. Areas which voted for Blair in 1997 and 2001 and for Cameron in 2010 and 2015 like Nuneaton, North Warwickshire, Great Yarmouth, Dartford, Kettering, Gravesham, Crawley, Basildon, Broxtowe and which do not have a university nearby all stuck with the Tories and indeed the Tories even won a few working class seats which Cameron never won like Walsall North, Stoke South and Derbyshire North East. Yes the voters wanted to ensure they sent the Tories a message but that does not mean they wanted to put Corbyn in No 10
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,006
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Observer, too late. Labour's leadership and the SWP/Momentum aren't so much a Venn diagram as a circle.

    It does look like it. Corbyn got the tone right when he went to Grenfell with the local MP and Labour's shadow housing minister. But others have got far, far too close to the rape cult. I thought long and hard about whether I should give Labour another go and rejoin after the election. I decided against. And I think I made the right decision. I have found the reactions of people like John McDonnell, Clive Lewis and Owen Jones to what has happened genuinely frightening, but totally unsurprising. David Lammy spoke in the shadow of Parliament (where change should come from) for the Labour party I want, but we are a long way from that right now. I hope NickP is right and there are no riots. If I were him, though, I would not be counting my chickens. The SWP is a vile, parasitical organisation that will be doing its very best to foment violence over the coming days.

    That is always the issue with the left. When their power is weak, they appear to stand for all the right things, and a better society, if you overlook the part that allows every person to live the life that they wish. Once they get any power, the sad truth that the left stands for controlling people's lives, or denying any power from those with whom they disagree, becomes all too evident. You only have to look at the way a local authority captured by Labour behaves towards any opposition, be it political, or from local residents, to get a foretaste of how Labour would behave in power nationally. It's a tragedy for those that wish for a better, fairer, society.
    Think you may be on something there. I also entirely agree with Southam's post. I think after voting LD at this election, I am going to be staying with them. They are lefties, but they are lefties which don't scare me. McDonnell and co do.
    Watching Nicholas and Alexander on MovieMix now, it is extremely concerning how close we are to Corbyn and McDonnell getting in, our own Trotsky and Lenin
    I wonder how all those who paid £3 for them to 'destroy' Labour feel....
    Don't blame me, I voted for Burnham!
    Equally I voted for Liz....
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    isam said:
    these days I suspect London has more crackpots than New York
    There will be Grenfall Truthers, in fact I think we already see some signs of that.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,310
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her supposedly 'disastrous' general election result still saw the Tories poll 42%, more than they have got at any general election since 1987. Yes it was disappointing given she wanted a big majority which she failed to get but nonetheless she won most votes and seats and can certainly stay PM for a while though the Tories will also certainly pick a new leader well before the next general election

    But they dont know when the next general election might be. The government could fall at any time and the Tories would not have time to elect a new leader in those circumstances.
    The government is not going to 'fall at any time' as long as the DUP supports it and even they did not that would require Sinn Fein and the LDs to vote against the government and the DUP to abstain
    Except that there may come a point where the government is so pitied in office that it has the choice between giving up, or clinging to office until the last possible moment, after which it won't see power again for a generation, as in 1997.
    Why? The government won 42% which is a greater voteshare than any governing party has had since 1997 and the fact that 42% were prepared to turnout to keep Corbyn and McDonnell out of Downing Street despite an awful Tory manifesto and a woeful Tory campaign suggests they may well do so again if the Tories get a half reasonable leader and dump their most unpopular policies. Corbyn is no Blair, he is not reassuring to Middle England, outside of student areas he scares the life out of Middle England
    You fail to see how your leader and party's credibility is shot by the fiasco of last week, and how vulnerable your party is to losing votes back to the minor parties (especially the potential LibDem/UKIP pincer movement you face depending on how you turn on Brexit),

    Labour doesn't need any more votes to win, it just needs the Tories to lose some.
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    kle4 said:

    Have to disagree with Mr Herdson on the last thread - ceding power to your opponent now because you fear a larger defeat later is not the lesser of two evils, it is highly partisan, handing over to what you think is a worse option because you do not think you can convince people of the rightness of your actions in the interim.

    The whole of politics is pretty hysterical at the moment.

    To be fair very few commentators on here agreed with David Herdson from either side of the political spectrum.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    OchEye said:

    Lighting blue touch paper: Any opinion poll due out? - And retiring....

    Here's one:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects Jun 15
    Public opinion towards...

    May:
    Favourable: 29% (-13)
    Unfavourable: 63% (+16)

    Corbyn:
    Fav: 46% (+10)
    Unfav: 46% (-4)

    (via @YouGov, 11-12)
    Interesting and predictable - even in the most favourable of circumstances possible Corbyn can't quite get there.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    RobD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Observer, too late. Labour's leadership and the SWP/Momentum aren't so much a Venn diagram as a circle.

    It does look like it. Corbyn got the tone right when he went to Grenfell with the local MP and Labour's shadow housing minister. But others have got far, far too close to the rape cult. I thought long and hard about whether I should give Labour another go and rejoin after the election. I decided against. And I think I made the right decision. I have found the reactions of people like John McDonnell, Clive Lewis and Owen Jones to what has happened genuinely frightening, but totally unsurprising. David Lammy spoke in the shadow of Parliament (where change should come from) for the Labour party I want, but we are a long way from that right now. I hope NickP is right and there are no riots. If I were him, though, I would not be counting my chickens. The SWP is a vile, parasitical organisation that will be doing its very best to foment violence over the coming days.

    That is always the issue with the left. When their power is weak, they appear to stand for all the right things, and a better society, if you overlook the part that allows every person to live the life that they wish. Once they get any power, the sad truth that the left stands for controlling people's lives, or denying any power from those with whom they disagree, becomes all too evident. You only have to look at the way a local authority captured by Labour behaves towards any opposition, be it political, or from local residents, to get a foretaste of how Labour would behave in power nationally. It's a tragedy for those that wish for a better, fairer, society.
    Think you may be on something there. I also entirely agree with Southam's post. I think after voting LD at this election, I am going to be staying with them. They are lefties, but they are lefties which don't scare me. McDonnell and co do.
    Trouble is you and SO with the main stream commentators ,and many on here could not predict there way down a one way street.
    What's that got to do with anything?
    Point of this site to predict and bet on politics.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,322

    IanB2 said:

    Not sure that Theresa needs any help from the likes of him. Her truckling to various manifestations of the Alt-Right is the cause of much of her problems.
    the cause of her problems is not having a decent set of policies to attract voters
    Aside from her personal shortcomings, the cause of her problems is having the awareness to realise how discontented people are with the current economic settlement, without the insight to come up with any genuine solutions not the influence to persuade her own colleagues.

    The principal worry about a potential Tory leadership election is that, despite all the flak she has (rightly) attracted for her leadership style, she is actually well ahead of her colleagues in at least beginning to understand how the political world had changed.
    the Tories atm are too caught up in their private squabbles to bother worrying about what the elctorate might want
    True and I can't help thinking that it's all a bit of a game to some Tories. Boris especially looks like he chose the Leave side more to further his rivalry with Cameron and to get him nearer to No 10 than through any conviction.
    That is the only plausible explanation of his volte face.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,351
    felix said:

    OchEye said:

    Lighting blue touch paper: Any opinion poll due out? - And retiring....

    Here's one:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects Jun 15
    Public opinion towards...

    May:
    Favourable: 29% (-13)
    Unfavourable: 63% (+16)

    Corbyn:
    Fav: 46% (+10)
    Unfav: 46% (-4)

    (via @YouGov, 11-12)
    Interesting and predictable - even in the most favourable of circumstances possible Corbyn can't quite get there.
    Have patience - that one's a few days old. But net positive ratings are in fact very unusual except in an initial honymoon. The public generally feel we all suck to different degrees.

    Not sure if there is a poll in the Sundays, or if everyone except Survation and YouGov are off in a huff.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,075
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    stevef said:

    HYUFD said:

    Her supposedly 'disastrous' general election result still saw the Tories poll 42%, more than they have got at any general election since 1987. Yes it was disappointing given she wanted a big majority which she failed to get but nonetheless she won most votes and seats and can certainly stay PM for a while though the Tories will also certainly pick a new leader well before the next general election

    But they dont know when the next general election might be. The government could fall at any time and the Tories would not have time to elect a new leader in those circumstances.
    The government is not going to 'fall at any time' as long as the DUP supports it and even they did not that would require Sinn Fein and the LDs to vote against the government and the DUP to abstain
    Except that there may come a point where the government is so pitied in office that it has the choice between giving up, or clinging to office until the last possible moment, after which it won't see power again for a generation, as in 1997.
    Why? The government won 42% which is a greater voteshare than any governing party has had since 1997 and the fact that 42% were prepared to turnout to keep Corbyn and McDonnell out of Downing Street despite an awful Tory manifesto and a woeful Tory campaign suggests they may well do so again if the Tories get a half reasonable leader and dump their most unpopular policies. Corbyn is no Blair, he is not reassuring to Middle England, outside of student areas he scares the life out of Middle England
    You fail to see how your leader and party's credibility is shot by the fiasco of last week, and how vulnerable your party is to losing votes back to the minor parties (especially the potential LibDem/UKIP pincer movement you face depending on how you turn on Brexit),

    Labour doesn't need any more votes to win, it just needs the Tories to lose some.
    Actually the Tories clearly lost some votes to the LDs they can win back if they take a more pragmatic approach to Brexit and Corbyn of course is equally at risk of losing some of the voters he won from UKIP last Thursday if they revive a little. Those 42% though clearly were voting against Corbyn above all, that is a solid wall of antis he and McDonnell have to overcome
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    Just vox popped my outer London Tory voting family, including some brexiteers. All in unanimous agreement that May needs to go, that she is unable to empathise with people and clearly no longer up to the job. Several of them said they weren't sure they could vote Tory again but wouldn't vote Labour under Corbyn still. Anger at the Tory party generally. Tories really need to get rid of her for the sake of their party. Every day she stays will toxify the rest of the party too.
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    MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755
    felix said:

    OchEye said:

    Lighting blue touch paper: Any opinion poll due out? - And retiring....

    Here's one:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects Jun 15
    Public opinion towards...

    May:
    Favourable: 29% (-13)
    Unfavourable: 63% (+16)

    Corbyn:
    Fav: 46% (+10)
    Unfav: 46% (-4)

    (via @YouGov, 11-12)
    Interesting and predictable - even in the most favourable of circumstances possible Corbyn can't quite get there.
    (via @YouGov, 11-12)
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    MJWMJW Posts: 1,359
    One thing that may keep her in post is strangely is the baying of the usual suspects. The Tories are ruthless but also loath to offer up a scalp to their opponents, especially when it's the far left rather than the normal Labour Party - as they are viewed with a mixture of alarm and contempt, increasingly the former, now they look close to power.

    There's a chance they rally behind her as an unfairly maligned scapegoat for Grenfell, especially if the blame begins to shift to the council or contractors as they become more publicly known. One of the reasons Prime Ministers are immediately in the firing line is they're the only public figure with any degree of responsibility/accountability most people know. Tat changes as others get plastered over the papers.

    Plus, why would a Tory want to take over in these circumstances? If government policy is responsible for Grenfell, it's the whole government's dating back years, not May's specifically - other than Ruth Davidson, who has more or less clean hands thanks to being in Scotland, no one can really provide a break. The most obvious replacement, Boris, is more up to his neck in it due to being mayor, cutting fire services and his relationship with the contractors (whatever the rights and wrongs - not exactly the way to move on) than anyone. Why not let May take the flak and ordure over the summer, as well as sorting out the nitty gritty of the response and let her limp on wounded and wait for more propitious circumstances. If Brexit stalls, say, and someone can set themselves up as the man or woman with a plan.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    MJW said:


    Plus, why would a Tory want to take over in these circumstances? If government policy is responsible for Grenfell, it's the whole government's dating back years....

    Many years. 2000, to be specific.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,855
    kle4 said:

    Have to disagree with Mr Herdson on the last thread - ceding power to your opponent now because you fear a larger defeat later is not the lesser of two evils, it is highly partisan, handing over to what you think is a worse option because you do not think you can convince people of the rightness of your actions in the interim.

    The whole of politics is pretty hysterical at the moment.

    Carlotta put it well. Handing power over to Corbyn would be a big FU to the voters.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,075
    edited June 2017

    Just vox popped my outer London Tory voting family, including some brexiteers. All in unanimous agreement that May needs to go, that she is unable to empathise with people and clearly no longer up to the job. Several of them said they weren't sure they could vote Tory again but wouldn't vote Labour under Corbyn still. Anger at the Tory party generally. Tories really need to get rid of her for the sake of their party. Every day she stays will toxify the rest of the party too.

    May will go well before the general election but according to Survation 41%, ie less than half, want May to go now, 20% want her to go in 6 months and 23% after she has negotiated the UK's withdrawal from the EU. So most want May to stay for at least 6 months

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/815634/theresa-may-prime-minister-resign-polls-yougov-survation-boris-johnson-leadership-election
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    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    MJW

    May has to go. She is not even mediocre as a Prime Minister and now is aimlessly cluttering up the scene. Davidson would be found out within days. She has had a totally compliant press in Scotland and has only flourished as a one trick pony when Sturgeon has gone off the boil. When Salmond was around even Tories were calling for her to go!

    The only Tories who looks anything like Prime Ministerial material are Davies and Hammond. If you lot have any sense you will put one of them in with a platform of completing Brexit and then go to the country.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    Lots of people saying austerity caused the Con "defeat" but austerity didn't prevent Con having 20 point leads.

    What caused the GE "defeat" was the manifesto - ie dementia tax, winter fuel, school lunches etc - coupled with May's robotic performance and skipping the debates etc.

    Of course the narrative has now changed but it seems far from obvious that what is required to regain the initiative over Corbyn is simply a spending splurge.
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,959

    Just vox popped my outer London Tory voting family, including some brexiteers. All in unanimous agreement that May needs to go, that she is unable to empathise with people and clearly no longer up to the job. Several of them said they weren't sure they could vote Tory again but wouldn't vote Labour under Corbyn still. Anger at the Tory party generally. Tories really need to get rid of her for the sake of their party. Every day she stays will toxify the rest of the party too.

    This.

    If Labour win it next time, it won't be Con to Lab switchers, it will be because a huge number of Tories stay at home.

    Depending on who the Lib Dems pick they could pick up a fair chunk of socially liberal Conservative voters next time round too, especially if the Tories become toxic by association with the DUP.

    To most people, Corbyn is just an avuncular, kindly figure who wants to do best for the poorest in society. Perhaps he is, but he's also backed by a very ugly looking mob.

    I've watched the developments of the last few days with worry, but how many people really pay close attention to these things?

    The Tories being the only ones carrying the can for Brexit will also be extremely damaging. The remain vote will turn out for Labour, despite Labour sitting on their hands and doing nothing about it. That's why I think a cross party approach to Brexit and a second referendum would be shrewd politics.

    It would be incredibly ironic for Labour to sail into power in 2, 3, 5 years time on the back of the remain vote, when they haven't done a damn thing to stand in the way of Brexit.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,267
    Just read the front page of The Huff Post UK. It doesn't make good reading if one is concerned about the Tory/DUP deal.

    Blair's legacy was Iraq, Brown's legacy was the crash, Mr Cameron's Brexit and I suspect Mrs May's might well be taking Northern Ireland back to the 1980s.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,208
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Have to disagree with Mr Herdson on the last thread - ceding power to your opponent now because you fear a larger defeat later is not the lesser of two evils, it is highly partisan, handing over to what you think is a worse option because you do not think you can convince people of the rightness of your actions in the interim.

    The whole of politics is pretty hysterical at the moment.

    Carlotta put it well. Handing power over to Corbyn would be a big FU to the voters.
    I sense it's the voters that are currently in the business of giving big FUs.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,984

    Just read the front page of The Huff Post UK. It doesn't make good reading if one is concerned about the Tory/DUP deal.

    Blair's legacy was Iraq, Brown's legacy was the crash, Mr Cameron's Brexit and I suspect Mrs May's might well be taking Northern Ireland back to the 1980s.

    Neither side wants to go back to the 1980s.
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    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    MikeL said:

    Lots of people saying austerity caused the Con "defeat" but austerity didn't prevent Con having 20 point leads.

    Except, of course, we now know that the Tories were never really 20 points ahead at all. The adjustments were all wrong and did not identify the increased likelihood of the youngsters to vote. Their 20 point leads were actually closer to 10 points in reality.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,075
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    Just read the front page of The Huff Post UK. It doesn't make good reading if one is concerned about the Tory/DUP deal.

    Blair's legacy was Iraq, Brown's legacy was the crash, Mr Cameron's Brexit and I suspect Mrs May's might well be taking Northern Ireland back to the 1980s.

    Neither side wants to go back to the 1980s.
    In any case it is Sinn Fein who have already refused to work with the DUP for months, a decision taken by them well before the general election
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    HYUFD said:

    Just vox popped my outer London Tory voting family, including some brexiteers. All in unanimous agreement that May needs to go, that she is unable to empathise with people and clearly no longer up to the job. Several of them said they weren't sure they could vote Tory again but wouldn't vote Labour under Corbyn still. Anger at the Tory party generally. Tories really need to get rid of her for the sake of their party. Every day she stays will toxify the rest of the party too.

    May will go well before the general election but according to Survation 41%, ie less than half, want May to go now, 20% want her to go in 6 months and 23% after she has negotiated the UK's withdrawal from the EU. So most want May to stay for at least 6 months

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/815634/theresa-may-prime-minister-resign-polls-yougov-survation-boris-johnson-leadership-election
    6 months is a slightly illogical length of time. Surely it's either in the next few weeks with a late summer leadership contest or in two years after the Brexit negotiations have concluded.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    scotslass said:

    MJW

    May has to go. She is not even mediocre as a Prime Minister and now is aimlessly cluttering up the scene. Davidson would be found out within days. She has had a totally compliant press in Scotland and has only flourished as a one trick pony when Sturgeon has gone off the boil. When Salmond was around even Tories were calling for her to go!

    The only Tories who looks anything like Prime Ministerial material are Davies and Hammond. If you lot have any sense you will put one of them in with a platform of completing Brexit and then go to the country.

    Dinnae fret yer bonnie wee heid bout Tory scum, lassie.
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    Just read the front page of The Huff Post UK. It doesn't make good reading if one is concerned about the Tory/DUP deal.

    Blair's legacy was Iraq, Brown's legacy was the crash, Mr Cameron's Brexit and I suspect Mrs May's might well be taking Northern Ireland back to the 1980s.

    The Huff Post is stuffed full of lefties.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,075
    kyf_100 said:

    Just vox popped my outer London Tory voting family, including some brexiteers. All in unanimous agreement that May needs to go, that she is unable to empathise with people and clearly no longer up to the job. Several of them said they weren't sure they could vote Tory again but wouldn't vote Labour under Corbyn still. Anger at the Tory party generally. Tories really need to get rid of her for the sake of their party. Every day she stays will toxify the rest of the party too.

    This.

    If Labour win it next time, it won't be Con to Lab switchers, it will be because a huge number of Tories stay at home.

    Depending on who the Lib Dems pick they could pick up a fair chunk of socially liberal Conservative voters next time round too, especially if the Tories become toxic by association with the DUP.

    To most people, Corbyn is just an avuncular, kindly figure who wants to do best for the poorest in society. Perhaps he is, but he's also backed by a very ugly looking mob.

    I've watched the developments of the last few days with worry, but how many people really pay close attention to these things?

    The Tories being the only ones carrying the can for Brexit will also be extremely damaging. The remain vote will turn out for Labour, despite Labour sitting on their hands and doing nothing about it. That's why I think a cross party approach to Brexit and a second referendum would be shrewd politics.

    It would be incredibly ironic for Labour to sail into power in 2, 3, 5 years time on the back of the remain vote, when they haven't done a damn thing to stand in the way of Brexit.
    The voters voted for Brexit and 42% voted for the Tories to push it through. If the LDs get a more effective leader they could start to take some of the Remain vote from Labour too
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,075
    scotslass said:

    MJW

    May has to go. She is not even mediocre as a Prime Minister and now is aimlessly cluttering up the scene. Davidson would be found out within days. She has had a totally compliant press in Scotland and has only flourished as a one trick pony when Sturgeon has gone off the boil. When Salmond was around even Tories were calling for her to go!

    The only Tories who looks anything like Prime Ministerial material are Davies and Hammond. If you lot have any sense you will put one of them in with a platform of completing Brexit and then go to the country.

    Hammond and Davis are the 2 Tory MPs will likely put to the membership in my view
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,075
    Norm said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just vox popped my outer London Tory voting family, including some brexiteers. All in unanimous agreement that May needs to go, that she is unable to empathise with people and clearly no longer up to the job. Several of them said they weren't sure they could vote Tory again but wouldn't vote Labour under Corbyn still. Anger at the Tory party generally. Tories really need to get rid of her for the sake of their party. Every day she stays will toxify the rest of the party too.

    May will go well before the general election but according to Survation 41%, ie less than half, want May to go now, 20% want her to go in 6 months and 23% after she has negotiated the UK's withdrawal from the EU. So most want May to stay for at least 6 months

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/815634/theresa-may-prime-minister-resign-polls-yougov-survation-boris-johnson-leadership-election
    6 months is a slightly illogical length of time. Surely it's either in the next few weeks with a late summer leadership contest or in two years after the Brexit negotiations have concluded.
    Even if the Tories did have a leadership contest it would take months to do if it was put to the membership as well so she would probably stay around 6 months as PM even if she gave up the Tory leadership tomorrow
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,855

    Just read the front page of The Huff Post UK. It doesn't make good reading if one is concerned about the Tory/DUP deal.

    Blair's legacy was Iraq, Brown's legacy was the crash, Mr Cameron's Brexit and I suspect Mrs May's might well be taking Northern Ireland back to the 1980s.

    Huff Post is the left wing version of Breitbart.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,289
    edited June 2017
    BudG said:

    MikeL said:

    Lots of people saying austerity caused the Con "defeat" but austerity didn't prevent Con having 20 point leads.

    Except, of course, we now know that the Tories were never really 20 points ahead at all. The adjustments were all wrong and did not identify the increased likelihood of the youngsters to vote. Their 20 point leads were actually closer to 10 points in reality.

    OK - fair point - but they were still very well ahead and on course for 400 seats per Messina.

    Of course the landscape has now completely changed and I'm sure they'll now need to spend somewhat more than previously planned.

    I just don't think a splurge is politically necessary.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    you should look at that tweeters account.... it's a little bit.....
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,959
    HYUFD said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Just vox popped my outer London Tory voting family, including some brexiteers. All in unanimous agreement that May needs to go, that she is unable to empathise with people and clearly no longer up to the job. Several of them said they weren't sure they could vote Tory again but wouldn't vote Labour under Corbyn still. Anger at the Tory party generally. Tories really need to get rid of her for the sake of their party. Every day she stays will toxify the rest of the party too.

    This.

    If Labour win it next time, it won't be Con to Lab switchers, it will be because a huge number of Tories stay at home.

    Depending on who the Lib Dems pick they could pick up a fair chunk of socially liberal Conservative voters next time round too, especially if the Tories become toxic by association with the DUP.

    To most people, Corbyn is just an avuncular, kindly figure who wants to do best for the poorest in society. Perhaps he is, but he's also backed by a very ugly looking mob.

    I've watched the developments of the last few days with worry, but how many people really pay close attention to these things?

    The Tories being the only ones carrying the can for Brexit will also be extremely damaging. The remain vote will turn out for Labour, despite Labour sitting on their hands and doing nothing about it. That's why I think a cross party approach to Brexit and a second referendum would be shrewd politics.

    It would be incredibly ironic for Labour to sail into power in 2, 3, 5 years time on the back of the remain vote, when they haven't done a damn thing to stand in the way of Brexit.
    The voters voted for Brexit and 42% voted for the Tories to push it through. If the LDs get a more effective leader they could start to take some of the Remain vote from Labour too
    Yes, that's possible. Although the last few weeks seems to have shown us that Brexit isn't the sole reason, not even the main reason, why most people cast their vote in a GE.

    My problem is at the minute Labour get to have their cake and eat it. They get to hoover up the remainer protest vote who will naturally gravitate towards the party most able to give the Tories a kicking.

    Yet Labour don't actually have to lift a finger to stop Brexit, merely sit back and state 'we accept the result of the referendum, even if we disagree with it'. That way they also hoover up support from anyone who is pro-Brexit but also anti-austerity.

    Add in Tory abstainers from the more liberal wing of the party and it's a recipe for a kicking at the next GE.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    David Lammy, not John McDonnell, speaks for the party Labour should be:
    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/875750893043548160

    Yep.
    If he's the solution then we really are fecked.
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    BudG said:

    MikeL said:

    Lots of people saying austerity caused the Con "defeat" but austerity didn't prevent Con having 20 point leads.

    Except, of course, we now know that the Tories were never really 20 points ahead at all. The adjustments were all wrong and did not identify the increased likelihood of the youngsters to vote. Their 20 point leads were actually closer to 10 points in reality.

    Didn't YouGov themselves give the Tories a 20 point lead at one stage?
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    kle4 said:

    Have to disagree with Mr Herdson on the last thread - ceding power to your opponent now because you fear a larger defeat later is not the lesser of two evils, it is highly partisan, handing over to what you think is a worse option because you do not think you can convince people of the rightness of your actions in the interim.

    The whole of politics is pretty hysterical at the moment.

    You were a tad hysterical yourself on election night, kle. You were frothing like a rabid dog at one stage. Glad to see you've clamed down a bit since then!
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    nunuone said:

    David Lammy, not John McDonnell, speaks for the party Labour should be:
    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/875750893043548160

    Yep.
    If he's the solution then we really are fecked.
    Another frother - David Lammy.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,053
    nunuone said:

    David Lammy, not John McDonnell, speaks for the party Labour should be:
    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/875750893043548160

    Yep.
    If he's the solution then we really are fecked.
    I have mixed feelings about Lammy. On one hand, he can come across as a bit of an idiot - or even worse at times. Forget Mastermind: his comments about black smoke at the papal conclave were hilarious.

    On the other hand, he can speak eloquently about the problems faced by young black men in many communities in our country, and especially the many who have no adult male role models. He's someone who could definitely have a role in any government dealing with such issues. But only that.
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    MJWMJW Posts: 1,359
    scotslass said:

    MJW

    May has to go. She is not even mediocre as a Prime Minister and now is aimlessly cluttering up the scene. Davidson would be found out within days. She has had a totally compliant press in Scotland and has only flourished as a one trick pony when Sturgeon has gone off the boil. When Salmond was around even Tories were calling for her to go!

    The only Tories who looks anything like Prime Ministerial material are Davies and Hammond. If you lot have any sense you will put one of them in with a platform of completing Brexit and then go to the country.

    I'm not a Tory. I personally think May has been an appalling PM and it would do us all a favour if she went back to her wheat field. The question is, will she survive and for how long, and that much more depends on the interests of individual Tories. I think she'll stay for now as a) the Tories won't want to be seen to be giving into the mob b) The next stage of the scandal will be to move on to other specific figures and c) It's not in the interests of any replacement to take on the job at a point when they'll have to deal with the fall-out of Grenfell and become attached to it as the PM has done. Why volunteer yourself to be the poor sod scurrying away from angry victims in a church when in four or five months to a year you can make your move and properly set out your stall?

    On the contenders, not being Scottish I haven't seen Davidson up close but she's a great media performer. I more meant that if May is tainted by Grenfell, then the whole cabinet is, as with the exception of Davis they gladly advocated and voting for the austerity some are blaming from the frontbench. Davidson is the only Tory who can make a relatively clean break with the past as she hasn't been in Westminster. Hammond's stance on remain (i.e. a sensible one) will send their backwoodsmen frothing again and so he'd struggle to govern. People seem to like talking up Davis, but every time he's had a big political chance or job he's stuffed it up. They're probably best off looking for fresh blood - but again, that probably lends itself to a longer timetable. Sajid Javid looks one to watch - was Osborne's protege for a while and George has made no secret of his intentions towards the PM.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,358
    Queen 4 PM!
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    nunuone said:

    David Lammy, not John McDonnell, speaks for the party Labour should be:
    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/875750893043548160

    Yep.
    If he's the solution then we really are fecked.
    On the other hand, he can speak eloquently about the problems faced by young black men in many communities in our country, and especially the many who have no adult male role models. He's someone who could definitely have a role in any government dealing with such issues. But only that.
    "minister for fatherless young black men".

    Can I just say this as an British Asian. *Tigger warning* because what I'm about to say is blunt and frank but many young balck people come across as if the world owes them something, many have a massive chip on their shoulder. #notall ofcourse but many.

    Like, why is this?
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    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    One year on and with negotiations about to start no one has a clue how to approach Brexit. No one.

    It's the biggest failure of the political establishment since appeasement. This will not end well.

    Seems the remoaner jibes are stuck in the Brexiteers' throats these days.
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    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    Jason said:

    BudG said:

    MikeL said:

    Lots of people saying austerity caused the Con "defeat" but austerity didn't prevent Con having 20 point leads.

    Except, of course, we now know that the Tories were never really 20 points ahead at all. The adjustments were all wrong and did not identify the increased likelihood of the youngsters to vote. Their 20 point leads were actually closer to 10 points in reality.

    Didn't YouGov themselves give the Tories a 20 point lead at one stage?
    Cerainly had a 19 point lead at one stage in early May. Not sure when they changed their model.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,753

    Just read the front page of The Huff Post UK. It doesn't make good reading if one is concerned about the Tory/DUP deal.

    Blair's legacy was Iraq, Brown's legacy was the crash, Mr Cameron's Brexit and I suspect Mrs May's might well be taking Northern Ireland back to the 1980s.

    It's a useless deal from the Conservatives POV. Deal or no deal, the DUP won't bring down the government on confidence and supply. They don't bring enough votes to get Brexit through. For that the Conservatives need at least the acquiescence of Labour, or possibly the SNP.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758

    One year on and with negotiations about to start no one has a clue how to approach Brexit. No one.

    It's the biggest failure of the political establishment since appeasement. This will not end well.

    Seems the remoaner jibes are stuck in the Brexiteers' throats these days.
    chortle

    because the remainers really know what they want too
  • Options
    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093
    nunu said:

    nunuone said:

    David Lammy, not John McDonnell, speaks for the party Labour should be:
    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/875750893043548160

    Yep.
    If he's the solution then we really are fecked.
    On the other hand, he can speak eloquently about the problems faced by young black men in many communities in our country, and especially the many who have no adult male role models. He's someone who could definitely have a role in any government dealing with such issues. But only that.
    "minister for fatherless young black men".

    Can I just say this as an British Asian. *Tigger warning* because what I'm about to say is blunt and frank but many young balck people come across as if the world owes them something, many have a massive chip on their shoulder. #notall ofcourse but many.

    Like, why is this?
    'Tigger warning' is a glorious typo.
  • Options
    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    One year on and with negotiations about to start no one has a clue how to approach Brexit. No one.

    It's the biggest failure of the political establishment since appeasement. This will not end well.

    Seems the remoaner jibes are stuck in the Brexiteers' throats these days.
    chortle

    because the remainers really know what they want too
    To Remain, obviously.

    Would Farage, Bone etc have stopped campaigning for Leave if they had lost?

    We know the answer from Farage's own lips when he thought he'd lost.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,358
    Jason said:

    BudG said:

    MikeL said:

    Lots of people saying austerity caused the Con "defeat" but austerity didn't prevent Con having 20 point leads.

    Except, of course, we now know that the Tories were never really 20 points ahead at all. The adjustments were all wrong and did not identify the increased likelihood of the youngsters to vote. Their 20 point leads were actually closer to 10 points in reality.

    Didn't YouGov themselves give the Tories a 20 point lead at one stage?
    21st April 22%
    19th April 24%
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,358
    Drutt said:

    nunu said:

    nunuone said:

    David Lammy, not John McDonnell, speaks for the party Labour should be:
    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/875750893043548160

    Yep.
    If he's the solution then we really are fecked.
    On the other hand, he can speak eloquently about the problems faced by young black men in many communities in our country, and especially the many who have no adult male role models. He's someone who could definitely have a role in any government dealing with such issues. But only that.
    "minister for fatherless young black men".

    Can I just say this as an British Asian. *Tigger warning* because what I'm about to say is blunt and frank but many young balck people come across as if the world owes them something, many have a massive chip on their shoulder. #notall ofcourse but many.

    Like, why is this?
    'Tigger warning' is a glorious typo.
    Winnie the Pooh SJWs :lol:
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    One year on and with negotiations about to start no one has a clue how to approach Brexit. No one.

    It's the biggest failure of the political establishment since appeasement. This will not end well.

    Seems the remoaner jibes are stuck in the Brexiteers' throats these days.
    The EU are ready !
    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/875671321811832832
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    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    calum said:

    One year on and with negotiations about to start no one has a clue how to approach Brexit. No one.

    It's the biggest failure of the political establishment since appeasement. This will not end well.

    Seems the remoaner jibes are stuck in the Brexiteers' throats these days.
    The EU are ready !
    https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/875671321811832832
    Hoh yus.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758

    One year on and with negotiations about to start no one has a clue how to approach Brexit. No one.

    It's the biggest failure of the political establishment since appeasement. This will not end well.

    Seems the remoaner jibes are stuck in the Brexiteers' throats these days.
    chortle

    because the remainers really know what they want too
    To Remain, obviously.

    Would Farage, Bone etc have stopped campaigning for Leave if they had lost?

    We know the answer from Farage's own lips when he thought he'd lost.
    except you cant, now you have to negotiate
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,314
    And where the hell is Liam in all this? We were assured that he'd already agreed trade deals with Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Ghana amongst others. He should be out there shouting these achievements from the rooftops, lest the government appears drifting and jejune.
  • Options
    BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    edited June 2017

    One year on and with negotiations about to start no one has a clue how to approach Brexit. No one.

    It's the biggest failure of the political establishment since appeasement. This will not end well.

    Seems the remoaner jibes are stuck in the Brexiteers' throats these days.
    chortle

    because the remainers really know what they want too
    To Remain, obviously.

    Would Farage, Bone etc have stopped campaigning for Leave if they had lost?

    We know the answer from Farage's own lips when he thought he'd lost.
    except you cant, now you have to negotiate
    Except I'm not. It's the 'government', which is totally split and totally unprepared.

    An utter shambles.

    And meanwhile everyone's attention, from Brenda down, is elsewhere.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,523

    And where the hell is Liam in all this? We were assured that he'd already agreed trade deals with Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Ghana amongst others. He should be out there shouting these achievements from the rooftops, lest the government appears drifting and jejune.

    From today's Times

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/876155746588733440
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,758

    One year on and with negotiations about to start no one has a clue how to approach Brexit. No one.

    It's the biggest failure of the political establishment since appeasement. This will not end well.

    Seems the remoaner jibes are stuck in the Brexiteers' throats these days.
    chortle

    because the remainers really know what they want too
    To Remain, obviously.

    Would Farage, Bone etc have stopped campaigning for Leave if they had lost?

    We know the answer from Farage's own lips when he thought he'd lost.
    except you cant, now you have to negotiate
    Except I'm not. It's the 'government', which is totally split and totally unprepared.

    An utter shambles.
    and which is negotiating out, so really your view to remain is somewhat redundant
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,984

    And where the hell is Liam in all this? We were assured that he'd already agreed trade deals with Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Ghana amongst others. He should be out there shouting these achievements from the rooftops, lest the government appears drifting and jejune.

    Can't sign those while still in the EU.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,984
    nunu said:
    What were the odds of NOM a few weeks ago? :p
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,436
    edited June 2017
    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    MJW

    May has to go. She is not even mediocre as a Prime Minister and now is aimlessly cluttering up the scene. Davidson would be found out within days. She has had a totally compliant press in Scotland and has only flourished as a one trick pony when Sturgeon has gone off the boil. When Salmond was around even Tories were calling for her to go!

    The only Tories who looks anything like Prime Ministerial material are Davies and Hammond. If you lot have any sense you will put one of them in with a platform of completing Brexit and then go to the country.

    Hammond and Davis are the 2 Tory MPs will likely put to the membership in my view
    I'm starting to think about Jeremy Hunt.

    Calm, controlled, on top of the numbers, has hair, business experience, tough.. stayed at the helm of the NHS for 5 years.

    I think he'd contrast well with Corbyn.

    Perhaps a leader for the post-Brexit period, or not, but I've backed him at 66/1.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppS1d9uPGAE
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    MJW

    May has to go. She is not even mediocre as a Prime Minister and now is aimlessly cluttering up the scene. Davidson would be found out within days. She has had a totally compliant press in Scotland and has only flourished as a one trick pony when Sturgeon has gone off the boil. When Salmond was around even Tories were calling for her to go!

    The only Tories who looks anything like Prime Ministerial material are Davies and Hammond. If you lot have any sense you will put one of them in with a platform of completing Brexit and then go to the country.

    Hammond and Davis are the 2 Tory MPs will likely put to the membership in my view
    I'm starting to think about Jeremy Hunt.

    Calm, controlled, on top of the numbers, has hair, business experience, tough.. stayed at the helm of the NHS for 5 years.

    I think he'd contrast well with Corbyn.

    Perhaps a leader for the post-Brexit period, or not, but I've backed him at 66/1.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppS1d9uPGAE
    Popular guy.
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Am I right that it's 7 days since Nigel Farage said he'd decide on the UKIP leadership in a week? Any news? I followed the tips here that evens was a massive price on him as next leader - I hope I'm not going to regret it!

    (My fault if I do, of course.)
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,436
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    MJW

    May has to go. She is not even mediocre as a Prime Minister and now is aimlessly cluttering up the scene. Davidson would be found out within days. She has had a totally compliant press in Scotland and has only flourished as a one trick pony when Sturgeon has gone off the boil. When Salmond was around even Tories were calling for her to go!

    The only Tories who looks anything like Prime Ministerial material are Davies and Hammond. If you lot have any sense you will put one of them in with a platform of completing Brexit and then go to the country.

    Hammond and Davis are the 2 Tory MPs will likely put to the membership in my view
    I'm starting to think about Jeremy Hunt.

    Calm, controlled, on top of the numbers, has hair, business experience, tough.. stayed at the helm of the NHS for 5 years.

    I think he'd contrast well with Corbyn.

    Perhaps a leader for the post-Brexit period, or not, but I've backed him at 66/1.

    Popular guy.
    Who "loves" any Tory, though?

    We all eat babies. The voters know that. But, he's capable, competent and has been under heavy fire for years.

    He could impress.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,081

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    MJW

    May has to go. She is not even mediocre as a Prime Minister and now is aimlessly cluttering up the scene. Davidson would be found out within days. She has had a totally compliant press in Scotland and has only flourished as a one trick pony when Sturgeon has gone off the boil. When Salmond was around even Tories were calling for her to go!

    The only Tories who looks anything like Prime Ministerial material are Davies and Hammond. If you lot have any sense you will put one of them in with a platform of completing Brexit and then go to the country.

    Hammond and Davis are the 2 Tory MPs will likely put to the membership in my view
    I'm starting to think about Jeremy Hunt.

    Calm, controlled, on top of the numbers, has hair, business experience, tough.. stayed at the helm of the NHS for 5 years.

    I think he'd contrast well with Corbyn.

    Perhaps a leader for the post-Brexit period, or not, but I've backed him at 66/1.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppS1d9uPGAE
    Surely he's completely toxic and tainted by his handling of the NHS?
  • Options
    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    MJW

    May has to go. She is not even mediocre as a Prime Minister and now is aimlessly cluttering up the scene. Davidson would be found out within days. She has had a totally compliant press in Scotland and has only flourished as a one trick pony when Sturgeon has gone off the boil. When Salmond was around even Tories were calling for her to go!

    The only Tories who looks anything like Prime Ministerial material are Davies and Hammond. If you lot have any sense you will put one of them in with a platform of completing Brexit and then go to the country.

    Hammond and Davis are the 2 Tory MPs will likely put to the membership in my view
    I'm starting to think about Jeremy Hunt.

    Calm, controlled, on top of the numbers, has hair, business experience, tough.. stayed at the helm of the NHS for 5 years.

    I think he'd contrast well with Corbyn.

    Perhaps a leader for the post-Brexit period, or not, but I've backed him at 66/1.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppS1d9uPGAE
    Surely he's completely toxic and tainted by his handling of the NHS?
    Depends which side of the divide you are. He clearly convinced enough people he was doing a good job to keep the job for a few years.

    On the other hand, do the Tories really want to energise the left's NHS fear/passion even more?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,436

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    MJW

    May has to go. She is not even mediocre as a Prime Minister and now is aimlessly cluttering up the scene. Davidson would be found out within days. She has had a totally compliant press in Scotland and has only flourished as a one trick pony when Sturgeon has gone off the boil. When Salmond was around even Tories were calling for her to go!

    The only Tories who looks anything like Prime Ministerial material are Davies and Hammond. If you lot have any sense you will put one of them in with a platform of completing Brexit and then go to the country.

    Hammond and Davis are the 2 Tory MPs will likely put to the membership in my view
    I'm starting to think about Jeremy Hunt.

    Calm, controlled, on top of the numbers, has hair, business experience, tough.. stayed at the helm of the NHS for 5 years.

    I think he'd contrast well with Corbyn.

    Perhaps a leader for the post-Brexit period, or not, but I've backed him at 66/1.

    Surely he's completely toxic and tainted by his handling of the NHS?
    And, yet, he's sorted those contracts. And he's still there. Unshaken.

    But, it might be worth reshuffling him to Chancellor first, or another office of State, so he doesn't go straight from Health to the Premiership.

    As Premier, he could make the NHS his asset by saying how, now he's PM, he can do something about what he saw every day as SoS, and announce a big increase in funding.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    So when's that Trump state visit then........
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,314
    The Tories need to get Jacob Rees-Mogg as leader. The Leavers utterly adore him, and there's a certain zany enthusiasm about him that might appeal. He could be the Tories' Corbyn.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,358

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    scotslass said:

    MJW

    May has to go. She is not even mediocre as a Prime Minister and now is aimlessly cluttering up the scene. Davidson would be found out within days. She has had a totally compliant press in Scotland and has only flourished as a one trick pony when Sturgeon has gone off the boil. When Salmond was around even Tories were calling for her to go!

    The only Tories who looks anything like Prime Ministerial material are Davies and Hammond. If you lot have any sense you will put one of them in with a platform of completing Brexit and then go to the country.

    Hammond and Davis are the 2 Tory MPs will likely put to the membership in my view
    I'm starting to think about Jeremy Hunt.

    Calm, controlled, on top of the numbers, has hair, business experience, tough.. stayed at the helm of the NHS for 5 years.

    I think he'd contrast well with Corbyn.

    Perhaps a leader for the post-Brexit period, or not, but I've backed him at 66/1.

    Popular guy.
    Who "loves" any Tory, though?

    We all eat babies. The voters know that. But, he's capable, competent and has been under heavy fire for years.

    He could impress.
    Um, some vegetarian baby-substitute for me, please :lol:
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,267
    edited June 2017
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    Just read the front page of The Huff Post UK. It doesn't make good reading if one is concerned about the Tory/DUP deal.

    Blair's legacy was Iraq, Brown's legacy was the crash, Mr Cameron's Brexit and I suspect Mrs May's might well be taking Northern Ireland back to the 1980s.

    Neither side wants to go back to the 1980s.
    In any case it is Sinn Fein who have already refused to work with the DUP for months, a decision taken by them well before the general election
    McGuinness took his bat and ball home,allegedly due to Arlene's cash for ash scandal. Mrs Foster clearly thought her disastrous scheme was not worth resigning over. Instead she becomes chief power broker for the Conservative Party to remain in government. The bad feeling may blow over, but as Sir John Major has stated, peace is very fragile, so this could be a monumental fiasco.

    As has been posted many times on here Mrs May just needed to call the DUP's bluff. Common sense and brinkmanship were clearly not on the curriculum at St. Hugh's College, Oxford! Whichever way it is viewed it is poorly executed politics!
This discussion has been closed.