I think the reason wee are not talking more about the YouGov model is that we are all a bit embarrassed by how sneery we were towards it.
Not me. I said it was the gold standard.
Honest.
I even did a thread on it. Ahem.
I did do a thread, unfortunately not published, on why pollsters should weight towards the politically uninterested... which pollster did that?
Answer - YouGov. If it had been published, the discussion below the line would surely have highlighted that YouGov could be on to something, and we would all have won more money
So the police cuts were all Theresa May's work? That shows a complete lack of understanding of how government work in the UK. The Treasury runs the show. The name escapes me of the man who was in charge there for six years.
My look is that May will resign as PM soon, she has lost control of the PCP. Davis will come in as interim leader to steady the boat, then call an election in the autumn. Corbyn will then win and the Tories will have 5 years to rebuild. Corbyn will build the LP into a true social left political party and have new leaders available when he decides the time is right to retire - he is after all 70 now, though the doesn't act it.
If the Tories pick the right leader then Corbyn is toast. He benefitted from a perfect storm of Tory idiocy without which he would have got no where near this point.
@BBCNormanS: Senior Tories say Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill must be sacked this weekend or leadership challenge on Monday
I'm amazed that it still hasn't happened? Surely Theresa must be furious with them, they've led her to one of the worst defeats suffered by the Tory party since WW2.
Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill contributed to the monumental CF but let's be clear it was Crosby who ran the campaign from hell. Sure, the manifesto included the dementia tax but who ordered the U-turn rather than attempting to defend or even explain it? Who kept Theresa May out of the debates and locked Philip Hammond in a CCHQ cupboard? Who chose to rely on parroting Strong and Stable while pouring Facebook and Fleet Street poison on Jeremy Corbyn rather than debate policy at all.
Free the Downing Street two. It was Crosby wot done it.
So the police cuts were all Theresa May's work? That shows a complete lack of understanding of how government work in the UK. The Treasury runs the show. The name escapes me of the man who was in charge there for six years.
She oversaw it, she could have found other savings, but she went for the front line.
Wont every Tory have unprecedented influence over the PM?
Ruth has wounded the SNP but now needs to kill them off. As well as being seen to be independent of CCHQ, she needs to get a few billion of investment in the economy and protect Barnet, then she can really take the fight to the SNP. Till then !
Alienating the police force (Which should be a massive well of natural Tory support) was incredibly daft by May.
I completely agree.
Plus the cuts allowed Labour to beat us on law and order over the last week or so. She's fucking terrible.
I never understood the argument that bashing the Police Federation would help detoxify the Conservatives and win over ethnic minority voters.
It wasn't to do with detoxifying the party
Theresa May, to her credit, genuinely believes stop and search is flawed, and inherently racist policy, so she ended it.
The strong relationship the Tories used to have with the police irretrievably broke down between 2005-2008, thanks to Sir Ian Blair pimping for Tony Blair during Parliamentary votes.
The cherry on the parfait was the shameful arrest of Damian Green for doing his job, which enraged every Tory in 2008.
Then there was the incident in Downing Street with Andrew Mitchell which saw some do prison time for lying.
As one Tory MP put it 'If the police are prepared to lie and fit up a cabinet minister, then what will they do an innocent black guy in Brixton?'
The problem with cutting back on stop and search in London is that street crime has escalated.
@BBCNormanS: Senior Tories say Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill must be sacked this weekend or leadership challenge on Monday
I'm amazed that it still hasn't happened? Surely Theresa must be furious with them, they've led her to one of the worst defeats suffered by the Tory party since WW2.
Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill contributed to the monumental CF but let's be clear it was Crosby who ran the campaign from hell. Sure, the manifesto included the dementia tax but who ordered the U-turn rather than attempting to defend or even explain it? Who kept Theresa May out of the debates and locked Philip Hammond in a CCHQ cupboard? Who chose to rely on parroting Strong and Stable while pouring Facebook and Fleet Street poison on Jeremy Corbyn rather than debate policy at all.
Free the Downing Street two. It was Crosby wot done it.
AIUI, Crosby was only drafted in to run the campaign after the manifesto bombed. I think Labour would have been the largest party without him.
So the police cuts were all Theresa May's work? That shows a complete lack of understanding of how government work in the UK. The Treasury runs the show. The name escapes me of the man who was in charge there for six years.
Gordon Brown is the traditional pb scapegoat for bad treasury decisions between 2010 and 2016.
Alienating the police force (Which should be a massive well of natural Tory support) was incredibly daft by May.
I completely agree.
Plus the cuts allowed Labour to beat us on law and order over the last week or so. She's fucking terrible.
I never understood the argument that bashing the Police Federation would help detoxify the Conservatives and win over ethnic minority voters.
It wasn't to do with detoxifying the party
Theresa May, to her credit, genuinely believes stop and search is flawed, and inherently racist policy, so she ended it.
The strong relationship the Tories used to have with the police irretrievably broke down between 2005-2008, thanks to Sir Ian Blair pimping for Tony Blair during Parliamentary votes.
The cherry on the parfait was the shameful arrest of Damian Green for doing his job, which enraged every Tory in 2008.
Then there was the incident in Downing Street with Andrew Mitchell which saw some do prison time for lying.
As one Tory MP put it 'If the police are prepared to lie and fit up a cabinet minister, then what will they do an innocent black guy in Brixton?'
I have heard this said by plenty of times since then by people. That one incident cost the police a vast amount of goodwill not just with the Tories but with the public at large whatever their political persuasion.
Some of the new Labour majorities in London are incredible. Nearly 30,000 in Dulwich and West Norwood. It is a safe seat obviously but there are some lovely and well-heeled parts of that seats (Dulwich Village itself of course but also to a lesser extent areas such as Crystal Palace (some of which is in the seat) which are rather nice places to live these days).
What blew me away was the Labour vote in Truro/Falmouth and Camborne/Redruth. Neither won, but both closeish.
Camborne/Redruth was always a decent long-shot if Labour did well. The unwinding of the lent LibDems vote in the south-west assured Labour of some big advances.
My mother-in-law has always voted LD and SDP before that - my wife has a memory of an SDP poster in their window in 1983.
She voted Labour in Wells. Thinks Corbyn is wonderful
Alienating the police force (Which should be a massive well of natural Tory support) was incredibly daft by May.
I completely agree.
Plus the cuts allowed Labour to beat us on law and order over the last week or so. She's fucking terrible.
I never understood the argument that bashing the Police Federation would help detoxify the Conservatives and win over ethnic minority voters.
It wasn't to do with detoxifying the party
Theresa May, to her credit, genuinely believes stop and search is flawed, and inherently racist policy, so she ended it.
The strong relationship the Tories used to have with the police irretrievably broke down between 2005-2008, thanks to Sir Ian Blair pimping for Tony Blair during Parliamentary votes.
The cherry on the parfait was the shameful arrest of Damian Green for doing his job, which enraged every Tory in 2008.
Then there was the incident in Downing Street with Andrew Mitchell which saw some do prison time for lying.
As one Tory MP put it 'If the police are prepared to lie and fit up a cabinet minister, then what will they do an innocent black guy in Brixton?'
All true but did any actual action get taken by May.
And then there's the SYP who continue to be a law unto themselves.
So the police cuts were all Theresa May's work? That shows a complete lack of understanding of how government work in the UK. The Treasury runs the show. The name escapes me of the man who was in charge there for six years.
She oversaw it, she could have found other savings, but she went for the front line.
In 2010 Lib Dems offered free tuition fees and got student vote
In 2017 Labour offered free tuition fees and got student vote
Offering free stuff wins voter approval - who knew?
so why didnt the Tories do it ?
Unasked question: why didn't they?
It appears that they have genuinely forgotten how to do the craft of politics. Blair built a machine: use focus groups to test your messages, tailor the manifesto accordingly, ruthless control of your MPs, suck up to the media shamelessly, dress professionally. He killed the opposition so hard it was unchivalrous. Cameron tried to do likewise and had some limited success. May threw the manifesto together with chums, pratted around, missed the debates (a decision so stupid it was actually funny), and spent tens of millions of taxpayers' money losing net thirteen seats.
Or maybe they don;t think it;s a good idea, being an inappropriate allocation of scarce resources for which there are better uses.
I really hope we don;t just get offered policies on the basis of whether they are popular, with no regard to whether they are right.
If the Tories pick the right leader then Corbyn is toast. He benefitted from a perfect storm of Tory idiocy without which he would have got no where near this point.
Yeah I'm not entirely pessimistic, it is hard to believe that the Tories could run a worse campaign at a future election, and as bad as things are they still got a hell of a lot of votes on Thursday.
If the Tories listen, and find a decent leader, and are willing to make some big changes on Brexit, tuition fees, social care, and a few other areas they could come up with compelling alternative to Labour's fantasy policies.
When Hamas and the IRA were killing children, Corbyn sympathising with their cause, even in the name of future peace is unforgivable to many.
He could offer to let me right the Labour manifesto, and I still wouldn't vote Labour with the current leadership. They are scum.
This is why Mrs May should be careful with how she deals with the DUP. The UDA, UVF, LVF and Ulster Resistance among others were not exactly the fluffy bunnies of Northern Irish paramilitary organisation.
I wonder if UKIP not standing candidates in the North and midlands actually helped Labour and hurt the Tories......
The digging down into these results is going to be fascinating. The UKIP--> Con switch was patchy at best. I think much of it was down to the quality of the respective candidate. For example Johnny Mercer in Plymouth Moor View hoovered up 80%+ of the UKIP votes going walkabout. Others got less than a quarter.
The contrast in the two Plymouth seats is fascinating and is very similar to two adjacent North East seats.
Stockton South is a more prosperous seat than Middlesbrough South but the Tories managed to lose a 5,000 majority whilst gaining MS with some ease. The UKIP vote in adjacent seats went in very different directions, but why?
The Tories hoovered up C2Ds in this election but lost BC1s. Remarkable for the party of aspiration.
@BBCNormanS: Senior Tories say Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill must be sacked this weekend or leadership challenge on Monday
I'm amazed that it still hasn't happened? Surely Theresa must be furious with them, they've led her to one of the worst defeats suffered by the Tory party since WW2.
Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill contributed to the monumental CF but let's be clear it was Crosby who ran the campaign from hell. Sure, the manifesto included the dementia tax but who ordered the U-turn rather than attempting to defend or even explain it? Who kept Theresa May out of the debates and locked Philip Hammond in a CCHQ cupboard? Who chose to rely on parroting Strong and Stable while pouring Facebook and Fleet Street poison on Jeremy Corbyn rather than debate policy at all.
Free the Downing Street two. It was Crosby wot done it.
AIUI, Crosby was only drafted in to run the campaign after the manifesto bombed. I think Labour would have been the largest party without him.
To a point, Lord Copper. Crosby ran the campaign from the beginning aiui but had not been involved in the manifesto. But that's my point. Rather than defend the policy, Crosby ordered the U-turn and the abandonment of policy altogether in favour of slogans and abuse. It failed and now stage 2 is to scapegoat NT and FH.
Stockton South is a more prosperous seat than Middlesbrough South but the Tories managed to lose a 5,000 majority whilst gaining MS with some ease. The UKIP vote in adjacent seats went in very different directions, but why?
In Stockton South James Wharton increased his vote - but not by much. We haven't seen the detailed data yet but my suspicion is that he took on a decent chunk of the 5k UKIP votes, but at the same time lost thousands of his own votes from 2015.
Issues in Stockton South. Lack of police - cuts recognised as the problem. No affordable homes yet swathes of unwanted executive development no-one can stop - Tory planning laws recognised as problem. Poor NHS services - Wharton ran on platform of saving North Tees in 2015, then claimed it was saved, then had to campaign in 2017 that he would save it as its under threat - due to widely recognised cuts he voted for. Local services - Wharton stuck his nose into Stockton council repeatedly, and the ruling Labour group successfully hung blame for the cuts on him voting to take 100% of their government grant away.
So UKIP or not, a combination of some Con > Lab switching and thousands of non-voters coming out for Labour did him in. His decision not to bother campaigning until the last week (a parody of his "here all year round not just at election time" slogan) was the final insult.
PB Tories, do you regard May as being much worse than IDS now?
She appears to have no political antennae or self-awareness....
The worst Tory leader in my lifetime was neither IDS or May but William Hague. Hague fought one election and lost by a landslide and got just 31% and 160 or so seats, under IDS the Tories generally polled a little higher than Hague against Blair and May still got 43% of the vote on Thursday and 318 seats. I am a great fan of Hague personally, he is a brilliant speaker and very intelligent but as Tory leader he was a disaster
About 80% of that was down to the Blair Cult though. Between 1995 to 2001 people were just not willing to listen to anything any Tory had to say.
Nonetheless having bee a Tory activist in the Blair years we did make a little more progress under IDS and Howard than under Hague, I felt worse in 2001 than I did on Friday
And you should feel much better. The party has just about twice as many seats as 2001 and many millions of more votes. Thursday was a disaster but a disaster in relative terms to where the party thought it was going to be.
That shouldn't be cause for complacency of course.
My look is that May will resign as PM soon, she has lost control of the PCP. Davis will come in as interim leader to steady the boat, then call an election in the autumn. Corbyn will then win and the Tories will have 5 years to rebuild. Corbyn will build the LP into a true social left political party and have new leaders available when he decides the time is right to retire - he is after all 70 now, though the doesn't act it.
It is simply absurd for the Prime Minister to stay in office.
Her reputation and authority have gone. The Tories should hold a leadership election now, elect David Davies who at least looks like a Prime Minister.He should make it clear that he will negotiate Brexit and in two years time place the results before the people in an election.That should take the pressure/scheming off moves for the early poll.
He should take this opportunity to make an generous offer to the Scots from a position of relative strength, guarantee the Irish border issue and offer something to the Welsh. He should make it clear that the deal with the DUP is for Brexit only and will last only that long.He should offer the English some real consittutional reform - new Bill of Rights , PR elected House of Lords etc.
His brand of liberal conservatism might just hit the mark of the modern world and be a reasonable answer to Corbyn idealism.
If the Tories don't act now then there shall be an election by the Autumn and Jeremy will become Prime Minister.
As the "Dementia Tax" proved that people have a strong desire to pass property on to heirs, the Conservatives should have pointed to the Labour pledge to take IHT to previous levels (which many would think of as reasonable) and then say: "This is just the beginning. Corbyn and McDonnell are against inherited wealth." Isn't McDonnell on record somewhere as saying he wants 100 per cent IHT?
The Conservatives should try to drive a wedge in the youth vote for Corbyn between the far left and those pissed off who have middle-class aspirations; they fear they will not be property owners and are saddled with debt.
If May doesn't sack Fiona and Tim, she will be challenged on Monday
Of course she could sack them, and still be challenged...
Do I have any popcorn left?
On the basis of the past seven weeks, there has to be a fair chance May will publicly support them today, then have to undertake a U-turn tomorrow and sack them.....
* actively recruiting the unengaged * weighting by political engagement
I don't know if it works or if they are doing it right. But they are doing it
isam said: I didn't know that when I wrote the post. It would be interesting to know what they [YouGov] are doing to reach the unengaged and/or if they are able to do it
viewcode • Posts: 3,901 June 4 I think you'll find the answer in these links, tho' I haven't had time to read thru them
Alienating the police force (Which should be a massive well of natural Tory support) was incredibly daft by May.
I completely agree.
Plus the cuts allowed Labour to beat us on law and order over the last week or so. She's fucking terrible.
I never understood the argument that bashing the Police Federation would help detoxify the Conservatives and win over ethnic minority voters.
It wasn't to do with detoxifying the party
Theresa May, to her credit, genuinely believes stop and search is flawed, and inherently racist policy, so she ended it.
The strong relationship the Tories used to have with the police irretrievably broke down between 2005-2008, thanks to Sir Ian Blair pimping for Tony Blair during Parliamentary votes.
The cherry on the parfait was the shameful arrest of Damian Green for doing his job, which enraged every Tory in 2008.
Then there was the incident in Downing Street with Andrew Mitchell which saw some do prison time for lying.
As one Tory MP put it 'If the police are prepared to lie and fit up a cabinet minister, then what will they do an innocent black guy in Brixton?'
I have heard this said by plenty of times since then by people. That one incident cost the police a vast amount of goodwill not just with the Tories but with the public at large whatever their political persuasion.
20 police officers were used in the arrest and search.
Made the Tories wonder if the police were overstaffed.
It is simply absurd for the Prime Minister to stay in office.
Her reputation and authority have gone. The Tories should hold a leadership election now, elect David Davies who at least looks like a Prime Minister.He should make it clear that he will negotiate Brexit and in two years time place the results before the people in an election.That should take the pressure/scheming off moves for the early poll.
He should take this opportunity to make an generous offer to the Scots from a position of relative strength, guarantee the Irish border issue and offer something to the Welsh. He should make it clear that the deal with the DUP is for Brexit only and will last only that long.He should offer the English some real consittutional reform - new Bill of Rights , PR elected House of Lords etc.
His brand of liberal conservatism might just hit the mark of the modern world and be a reasonable answer to Corbyn idealism.
If the Tories don't act now then there shall be an election by the Autumn and Jeremy will become Prime Minister.
Good Morning Nicola.
Thankyou for your sage words of advice. before heeding them, perhaps we might look at your pre-election prediction
I think before you celebrate your assumed gains any further reflect that despite the puffing of the network media and the tame Tory press all recent polls suggest that the Tories are now on the way down in Scotland. Ruth has built up the expectations. Now we shall see if they deliver.
Stockton South is a more prosperous seat than Middlesbrough South but the Tories managed to lose a 5,000 majority whilst gaining MS with some ease. The UKIP vote in adjacent seats went in very different directions, but why?
In Stockton South James Wharton increased his vote - but not by much. We haven't seen the detailed data yet but my suspicion is that he took on a decent chunk of the 5k UKIP votes, but at the same time lost thousands of his own votes from 2015.
Issues in Stockton South. Lack of police - cuts recognised as the problem. No affordable homes yet swathes of unwanted executive development no-one can stop - Tory planning laws recognised as problem. Poor NHS services - Wharton ran on platform of saving North Tees in 2015, then claimed it was saved, then had to campaign in 2017 that he would save it as its under threat - due to widely recognised cuts he voted for. Local services - Wharton stuck his nose into Stockton council repeatedly, and the ruling Labour group successfully hung blame for the cuts on him voting to take 100% of their government grant away.
So UKIP or not, a combination of some Con > Lab switching and thousands of non-voters coming out for Labour did him in. His decision not to bother campaigning until the last week (a parody of his "here all year round not just at election time" slogan) was the final insult.
@BBCNormanS: Senior Tories say Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill must be sacked this weekend or leadership challenge on Monday
I'm amazed that it still hasn't happened? Surely Theresa must be furious with them, they've led her to one of the worst defeats suffered by the Tory party since WW2.
Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill contributed to the monumental CF but let's be clear it was Crosby who ran the campaign from hell. Sure, the manifesto included the dementia tax but who ordered the U-turn rather than attempting to defend or even explain it? Who kept Theresa May out of the debates and locked Philip Hammond in a CCHQ cupboard? Who chose to rely on parroting Strong and Stable while pouring Facebook and Fleet Street poison on Jeremy Corbyn rather than debate policy at all.
Free the Downing Street two. It was Crosby wot done it.
AIUI, Crosby was only drafted in to run the campaign after the manifesto bombed. I think Labour would have been the largest party without him.
To a point, Lord Copper. Crosby ran the campaign from the beginning aiui but had not been involved in the manifesto. But that's my point. Rather than defend the policy, Crosby ordered the U-turn and the abandonment of policy altogether in favour of slogans and abuse. It failed and now stage 2 is to scapegoat NT and FH.
NT wrote the manifesto. He needs to pay for that mistake. It was absolutely fucking terrible.
If May doesn't sack Fiona and Tim, she will be challenged on Monday
Of course she could sack them, and still be challenged...
Do I have any popcorn left?
On the basis of the past seven weeks, there has to be a fair chance May will publicly support them today, then have to undertake a U-turn tomorrow and sack them.....
If May is challenged right away then that brings on a full leadership election. Pemature IMO. Let the dust settle, think things through and then elect a new leader in the autumn. Things must not be rushed. Get this wrong and PM Corbyn will be a reality.
If May doesn't sack Fiona and Tim, she will be challenged on Monday
Of course she could sack them, and still be challenged...
Do I have any popcorn left?
On the basis of the past seven weeks, there has to be a fair chance May will publicly support them today, then have to undertake a U-turn tomorrow and sack them.....
The European regard us with a mixture of affection, irritation and amusement, but they basically want things to work out, so technical stuff like a delay for N months is easy enough.
Which is precisely how I think we also view Europe. It's a shame we cannot work something out.
I am sure we can work something out.It will be worse than what we would have achieved if Mrs May had done a charm offensive with her EU partners,and not let attitudes harden to the UK's disadvantage.
It is simply absurd for the Prime Minister to stay in office.
Her reputation and authority have gone. The Tories should hold a leadership election now, elect David Davies who at least looks like a Prime Minister.He should make it clear that he will negotiate Brexit and in two years time place the results before the people in an election.That should take the pressure/scheming off moves for the early poll.
He should take this opportunity to make an generous offer to the Scots from a position of relative strength, guarantee the Irish border issue and offer something to the Welsh. He should make it clear that the deal with the DUP is for Brexit only and will last only that long.He should offer the English some real consittutional reform - new Bill of Rights , PR elected House of Lords etc.
His brand of liberal conservatism might just hit the mark of the modern world and be a reasonable answer to Corbyn idealism.
If the Tories don't act now then there shall be an election by the Autumn and Jeremy will become Prime Minister.
Amongst many possible threads, I suggest the circumstances as to how/when the next GE will be called is a key one.
The Fixed Term Parliament Act will not be repealed now I imagine and it's hard to see a chunk of the Tory party wanting another election - especially those on wafer thin majorities (lots of them) or who've waited for ages in Scotland to get a decent headcount.
I feel a lot of symapthy for people like Tania Mathias - surely by 2020, Vince would have been too old to stand against her and yet now she's out after just 2 years and he's back.
Flick Drummond, a remainer, is out too in Pompey South after just 2 years...
As the "Dementia Tax" proved that people have a strong desire to pass property on to heirs, the Conservatives should have pointed to the Labour pledge to take IHT to previous levels (which many would think of as reasonable) and then say: "This is just the beginning. Corbyn and McDonnell are against inherited wealth." Isn't McDonnell on record somewhere as saying he wants 100 per cent IHT?
The Conservatives should try to drive a wedge in the youth vote for Corbyn between the far left and those pissed off who have middle-class aspirations; they fear they will not be property owners and are saddled with debt.
A normal Tory campaign would have torn Lab's promises to shreds.
This was a pathetic attempt at making May, Queen of England.
Alienating the police force (Which should be a massive well of natural Tory support) was incredibly daft by May.
I completely agree.
Plus the cuts allowed Labour to beat us on law and order over the last week or so. She's fucking terrible.
I never understood the argument that bashing the Police Federation would help detoxify the Conservatives and win over ethnic minority voters.
It wasn't to do with detoxifying the party
Theresa May, to her credit, genuinely believes stop and search is flawed, and inherently racist policy, so she ended it.
The strong relationship the Tories used to have with the police irretrievably broke down between 2005-2008, thanks to Sir Ian Blair pimping for Tony Blair during Parliamentary votes.
The cherry on the parfait was the shameful arrest of Damian Green for doing his job, which enraged every Tory in 2008.
Then there was the incident in Downing Street with Andrew Mitchell which saw some do prison time for lying.
As one Tory MP put it 'If the police are prepared to lie and fit up a cabinet minister, then what will they do an innocent black guy in Brixton?'
I have heard this said by plenty of times since then by people. That one incident cost the police a vast amount of goodwill not just with the Tories but with the public at large whatever their political persuasion.
20 police officers were used in the arrest and search.
Made the Tories wonder if the police were overstaffed.
After the Green affair, policing the House was moved from the Met to Parliament itself.
Re Andrew Mitchell -- some think he was the victim of what Sir Robert Mark called noble cause corruption "improving" the evidence against a guilty man. Mitchell was not brought back into office, and lost a libel action, and iirc even his friends conceded he did often use the word pleb -- unlikely to have been known to the constable on the Clapham omnibus.
Darlington just declared on Parliament Channel. That was the moment that I came to believe the exit poll and that the Tories weren't going to get an OM.
Darlington just declared on Parliament Channel. That was the moment that I came to believe the exit poll and that the Tories weren't going to get an OM.
It is simply absurd for the Prime Minister to stay in office.
Her reputation and authority have gone. The Tories should hold a leadership election now, elect David Davies who at least looks like a Prime Minister.He should make it clear that he will negotiate Brexit and in two years time place the results before the people in an election.That should take the pressure/scheming off moves for the early poll.
He should take this opportunity to make an generous offer to the Scots from a position of relative strength, guarantee the Irish border issue and offer something to the Welsh. He should make it clear that the deal with the DUP is for Brexit only and will last only that long.He should offer the English some real consittutional reform - new Bill of Rights , PR elected House of Lords etc.
His brand of liberal conservatism might just hit the mark of the modern world and be a reasonable answer to Corbyn idealism.
If the Tories don't act now then there shall be an election by the Autumn and Jeremy will become Prime Minister.
poor old Sarah Olney.
One of the oddest looking people I have ever seen. if Zac Goldsmith can get over himself he is cabinet material surely?
May's non-reshuffle was understandable for now, but sometime soon surely teh Tories need to bring in a lot of younger blood, break with teh past
Rory Stewart, Zac, Jonny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt, there must be loads of them
There were some huge increases in the Conservative vote:
Ashfield +19.3% Mansfield +18.4% Rother Valley +17.0% Don Valley +16.4% Bolsover +16.1% Grimsby +15.9% Walsall N +15.9% Penistone +15.5% Derbyshire NE +12.5% Morley +11.8%
It is simply absurd for the Prime Minister to stay in office.
Her reputation and authority have gone. The Tories should hold a leadership election now, elect David Davies who at least looks like a Prime Minister.He should make it clear that he will negotiate Brexit and in two years time place the results before the people in an election.That should take the pressure/scheming off moves for the early poll.
He should take this opportunity to make an generous offer to the Scots from a position of relative strength, guarantee the Irish border issue and offer something to the Welsh. He should make it clear that the deal with the DUP is for Brexit only and will last only that long.He should offer the English some real consittutional reform - new Bill of Rights , PR elected House of Lords etc.
His brand of liberal conservatism might just hit the mark of the modern world and be a reasonable answer to Corbyn idealism.
If the Tories don't act now then there shall be an election by the Autumn and Jeremy will become Prime Minister.
poor old Sarah Olney.
One of the oddest looking people I have ever seen. if Zac Goldsmith can get over himself he is cabinet material surely?
May's non-reshuffle was understandable for now, but sometime soon surely teh Tories need to bring in a lot of younger blood, break with teh past
Rory Stewart, Zac, Jonny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt, there must be loads of them
Go back to the country now with a better leader who runs a normal campaign and they would get a clear majority.
Every day they persist with May and her quite frankly weird approach to politics increases the chances of the far left winning the next election. Decision time for the Tory party.
Alienating the police force (Which should be a massive well of natural Tory support) was incredibly daft by May.
I completely agree.
Plus the cuts allowed Labour to beat us on law and order over the last week or so. She's fucking terrible.
I never understood the argument that bashing the Police Federation would help detoxify the Conservatives and win over ethnic minority voters.
It wasn't to do with detoxifying the party
Theresa May, to her credit, genuinely believes stop and search is flawed, and inherently racist policy, so she ended it.
The strong relationship the Tories used to have with the police irretrievably broke down between 2005-2008, thanks to Sir Ian Blair pimping for Tony Blair during Parliamentary votes.
The cherry on the parfait was the shameful arrest of Damian Green for doing his job, which enraged every Tory in 2008.
Then there was the incident in Downing Street with Andrew Mitchell which saw some do prison time for lying.
As one Tory MP put it 'If the police are prepared to lie and fit up a cabinet minister, then what will they do an innocent black guy in Brixton?'
I have heard this said by plenty of times since then by people. That one incident cost the police a vast amount of goodwill not just with the Tories but with the public at large whatever their political persuasion.
20 police officers were used in the arrest and search.
Made the Tories wonder if the police were overstaffed.
After the Green affair, policing the House was moved from the Met to Parliament itself.
Re Andrew Mitchell -- some think he was the victim of what Sir Robert Mark called noble cause corruption "improving" the evidence against a guilty man. Mitchell was not brought back into office, and lost a libel action, and iirc even his friends conceded he did often use the word pleb -- unlikely to have been known to the constable on the Clapham omnibus.
As with so many scandals it wasn't the original act that alienated the police in so many people's eyes, it was the cover up - or in this case the Police Federation representatives lying about the tone and contents of the meeting with Mitchell and the subsequent tape that showed they had been dishonest. That was clear irrefutable evidence that they were not worthy of trust. The damage they did to the police was huge.
Interesting that Scott P talks about popcorn. Osborne seems to have had a smug grin on his face as wide as the Thames. TSE got very shirty with me on Thursday when I deigned to criticise the Cameroons. Are the Tories ready for some internal warfare similar to post-1990?
The comparison seems absurd though. Unlike Cameron, Thatcher was, it pains me to say, a great Tory leader if not in my view a great Prime minister. She was also knifed in the back by her own party. Betrayal has a ring of truth to it. But Cameron? He chose of his own free will to hold a referendum on EU membership because he was worried that the rise of Ukip would lose him the 2015 election to Ed Miliband. He then fought the referendum in his own way and lost it. He had no-one to blame but himself. As William Hague put it Europe was an unexploded bomb in the Conservative party. Dave wasn't knifed by anyone but hoist by his own petard. A fitting end to the casual prime minister who thought no panic too big that it couldn't be dealt with by a solid essay at the last minute. The sense of grievance is absurd when the explanation for his demise lies in the man himself.
As someone who has little time for either the Tory modernisers or the traditionalists I'd quite enjoy the whole spectacle myself if we weren't all in such a precarious political position.
It is simply absurd for the Prime Minister to stay in office.
Her reputation and authority have gone. The Tories should hold a leadership election now, elect David Davies who at least looks like a Prime Minister.He should make it clear that he will negotiate Brexit and in two years time place the results before the people in an election.That should take the pressure/scheming off moves for the early poll.
He should take this opportunity to make an generous offer to the Scots from a position of relative strength, guarantee the Irish border issue and offer something to the Welsh. He should make it clear that the deal with the DUP is for Brexit only and will last only that long.He should offer the English some real consittutional reform - new Bill of Rights , PR elected House of Lords etc.
His brand of liberal conservatism might just hit the mark of the modern world and be a reasonable answer to Corbyn idealism.
If the Tories don't act now then there shall be an election by the Autumn and Jeremy will become Prime Minister.
poor old Sarah Olney.
One of the oddest looking people I have ever seen. if Zac Goldsmith can get over himself he is cabinet material surely?
May's non-reshuffle was understandable for now, but sometime soon surely teh Tories need to bring in a lot of younger blood, break with teh past
Rory Stewart, Zac, Jonny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt, there must be loads of them
Yes to Rory.
I'm throwing money around on outsiders for this as it needs surely to be new blood assuming TMay does stay for a while (if she doesn't then these won't come off) - tracey crouch, rory and mercer so far.
A formal coalition with the DUP? If the Tories want any liberal voters next time, ministers need to stop this. confidence and supply is a necessity, coalition is a choice. What are the UUP making of all this?
Alienating the police force (Which should be a massive well of natural Tory support) was incredibly daft by May.
I completely agree.
Plus the cuts allowed Labour to beat us on law and order over the last week or so. She's fucking terrible.
I never understood the argument that bashing the Police Federation would help detoxify the Conservatives and win over ethnic minority voters.
It wasn't to do with detoxifying the party
Theresa May, to her credit, genuinely believes stop and search is flawed, and inherently racist policy, so she ended it.
The strong relationship the Tories used to have with the police irretrievably broke down between 2005-2008, thanks to Sir Ian Blair pimping for Tony Blair during Parliamentary votes.
The cherry on the parfait was the shameful arrest of Damian Green for doing his job, which enraged every Tory in 2008.
Then there was the incident in Downing Street with Andrew Mitchell which saw some do prison time for lying.
As one Tory MP put it 'If the police are prepared to lie and fit up a cabinet minister, then what will they do an innocent black guy in Brixton?'
I have heard this said by plenty of times since then by people. That one incident cost the police a vast amount of goodwill not just with the Tories but with the public at large whatever their political persuasion.
20 police officers were used in the arrest and search.
Made the Tories wonder if the police were overstaffed.
After the Green affair, policing the House was moved from the Met to Parliament itself.
Re Andrew Mitchell -- some think he was the victim of what Sir Robert Mark called noble cause corruption "improving" the evidence against a guilty man. Mitchell was not brought back into office, and lost a libel action, and iirc even his friends conceded he did often use the word pleb -- unlikely to have been known to the constable on the Clapham omnibus.
The police federation still lied about him. That isn't speculation, it is fact. He recorded the meeting he had with them and they went straight outside and lied.
Go back to the country now with a better leader who runs a normal campaign and they would get a clear majority.
Every day they persist with May and her quite frankly weird approach to politics increases the chances of the far left winning the next election. Decision time for the Tory party.
If we go back to the country now we'll be almost a year into the Article 50 process with absolutely no idea what the heck we're going to do.
A new leader and a more consensual approach to Brexit is needed, but another GE would be catastrophic at this moment in time. Have it in 2019/2020 when Brexit is over.
May has got to stop this. A formal coalition guarantees Corbyn as PM in 2022 because all Corbyn+extremist attacks will fall flat.
She is offering them minestrial positions! oh gawd she should be taken to one side and......
I think the damage is done already. "Shock horror he used to have friendly meetings with people linked to Ulster extremists" didn't work anyway, but "Now we need some Ulster extremists we're going to form a government with them" shows it was just cynical electioneering.
Yes, I know Yokel says they're reformed characters now and that gun-running stuff was a long time ago. But that's exactly what Sinn Fein says and we all implicitly accept (otherwise how come we put them into power-sharing and invited them to the Palace?). And we're not proposing that Sinn Fein join the government!
Alienating the police force (Which should be a massive well of natural Tory support) was incredibly daft by May.
I completely agree.
Plus the cuts allowed Labour to beat us on law and order over the last week or so. She's fucking terrible.
I never understood the argument that bashing the Police Federation would help detoxify the Conservatives and win over ethnic minority voters.
It wasn't to do with detoxifying the party
Theresa May, to her credit, genuinely believes stop and search is flawed, and inherently racist policy, so she ended it.
The strong relationship the Tories used to have with the police irretrievably broke down between 2005-2008, thanks to Sir Ian Blair pimping for Tony Blair during Parliamentary votes.
The cherry on the parfait was the shameful arrest of Damian Green for doing his job, which enraged every Tory in 2008.
Then there was the incident in Downing Street with Andrew Mitchell which saw some do prison time for lying.
As one Tory MP put it 'If the police are prepared to lie and fit up a cabinet minister, then what will they do an innocent black guy in Brixton?'
I have heard this said by plenty of times since then by people. That one incident cost the police a vast amount of goodwill not just with the Tories but with the public at large whatever their political persuasion.
20 police officers were used in the arrest and search.
Made the Tories wonder if the police were overstaffed.
After the Green affair, policing the House was moved from the Met to Parliament itself.
Re Andrew Mitchell -- some think he was the victim of what Sir Robert Mark called noble cause corruption "improving" the evidence against a guilty man. Mitchell was not brought back into office, and lost a libel action, and iirc even his friends conceded he did often use the word pleb -- unlikely to have been known to the constable on the Clapham omnibus.
The police federation still lied about him. That isn't speculation, it is fact. He recorded the meeting he had with them and they went straight outside and lied.
Yes -- noble cause corruption is still corruption, and arguably the more insidious form.
The Nationalists have secured the lowest share of the vote for a winning party in Scotland since 1983, the lowest seat tally for the first-placed party since at least 1955. Alex Salmond, who spectacularly lost Gordon to the Tories, presented on television like an East European strongman in the final days of communism. Ashen-faced, hair frazzled, eyes darting to check for rebels storming the windows of the presidential palace, the former First Minister gave living portrait to the nightmare the SNP was suffering.
Comments
Answer - YouGov. If it had been published, the discussion below the line would surely have highlighted that YouGov could be on to something, and we would all have won more money
Oh well
Or perhaps someone who wanted to posture as being tough and fearless.
Free the Downing Street two. It was Crosby wot done it.
And, you don't win people back by berating them.
She voted Labour in Wells. Thinks Corbyn is wonderful
Race tomorrow is at 7pm.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40232374?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_scotland_news&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=scotland
And then there's the SYP who continue to be a law unto themselves.
Of course she could sack them, and still be challenged...
Do I have any popcorn left?
I really hope we don;t just get offered policies on the basis of whether they are popular, with no regard to whether they are right.
If the Tories listen, and find a decent leader, and are willing to make some big changes on Brexit, tuition fees, social care, and a few other areas they could come up with compelling alternative to Labour's fantasy policies.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40232374
Issues in Stockton South. Lack of police - cuts recognised as the problem. No affordable homes yet swathes of unwanted executive development no-one can stop - Tory planning laws recognised as problem. Poor NHS services - Wharton ran on platform of saving North Tees in 2015, then claimed it was saved, then had to campaign in 2017 that he would save it as its under threat - due to widely recognised cuts he voted for. Local services - Wharton stuck his nose into Stockton council repeatedly, and the ruling Labour group successfully hung blame for the cuts on him voting to take 100% of their government grant away.
So UKIP or not, a combination of some Con > Lab switching and thousands of non-voters coming out for Labour did him in. His decision not to bother campaigning until the last week (a parody of his "here all year round not just at election time" slogan) was the final insult.
Although Alex Salmond losing his seat is undoubtedly a win for everybody.
And the achingly funny cartoon doesn't mention the one vote on Indy that mattered.
Oh...
Her reputation and authority have gone. The Tories should hold a leadership election now, elect David Davies who at least looks like a Prime Minister.He should make it clear that he will negotiate Brexit and in two years time place the results before the people in an election.That should take the pressure/scheming off moves for the early poll.
He should take this opportunity to make an generous offer to the Scots from a position of relative strength, guarantee the Irish border issue and offer something to the Welsh. He should make it clear that the deal with the DUP is for Brexit only and will last only that long.He should offer the English some real consittutional reform - new Bill of Rights , PR elected House of Lords etc.
His brand of liberal conservatism might just hit the mark of the modern world and be a reasonable answer to Corbyn idealism.
If the Tories don't act now then there shall be an election by the Autumn and Jeremy will become Prime Minister.
The Conservatives should try to drive a wedge in the youth vote for Corbyn between the far left and those pissed off who have middle-class aspirations; they fear they will not be property owners and are saddled with debt.
I didn't know that when I wrote the post. It would be interesting to know what they [YouGov] are doing to reach the unengaged and/or if they are able to do it
Made the Tories wonder if the police were overstaffed.
Thankyou for your sage words of advice. before heeding them, perhaps we might look at your pre-election prediction Oh
Change the advisers or else.
Perhaps reviewing weaknesses in candidate selection, national and regional campaign management isn't quite such a catchy headline.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/873504547821498369
Ken Clarke as deputy PM.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/blue-is-the-new-orange/
The Zoomers are taking this well I see...
The Fixed Term Parliament Act will not be repealed now I imagine and it's hard to see a chunk of the Tory party wanting another election - especially those on wafer thin majorities (lots of them) or who've waited for ages in Scotland to get a decent headcount.
I feel a lot of symapthy for people like Tania Mathias - surely by 2020, Vince would have been too old to stand against her and yet now she's out after just 2 years and he's back.
Flick Drummond, a remainer, is out too in Pompey South after just 2 years...
Mind you, poor old Sarah Olney.
This was a pathetic attempt at making May, Queen of England.
Re Andrew Mitchell -- some think he was the victim of what Sir Robert Mark called noble cause corruption "improving" the evidence against a guilty man. Mitchell was not brought back into office, and lost a libel action, and iirc even his friends conceded he did often use the word pleb -- unlikely to have been known to the constable on the Clapham omnibus.
Has Mrs May no political nous?
Go back to country?
I take my news from the MSM, Zoomers & the Yoonstream !!
May's non-reshuffle was understandable for now, but sometime soon surely teh Tories need to bring in a lot of younger blood, break with teh past
Rory Stewart, Zac, Jonny Mercer, Penny Mordaunt, there must be loads of them
Ashfield +19.3%
Mansfield +18.4%
Rother Valley +17.0%
Don Valley +16.4%
Bolsover +16.1%
Grimsby +15.9%
Walsall N +15.9%
Penistone +15.5%
Derbyshire NE +12.5%
Morley +11.8%
It was Blair's chief of Staff - Jonathan Powell.
He did a lot of the negotiation.
She is offering them minestrial positions! oh gawd she should be taken to one side and......
Every day they persist with May and her quite frankly weird approach to politics increases the chances of the far left winning the next election. Decision time for the Tory party.
The comparison seems absurd though. Unlike Cameron, Thatcher was, it pains me to say, a great Tory leader if not in my view a great Prime minister. She was also knifed in the back by her own party. Betrayal has a ring of truth to it. But Cameron? He chose of his own free will to hold a referendum on EU membership because he was worried that the rise of Ukip would lose him the 2015 election to Ed Miliband. He then fought the referendum in his own way and lost it. He had no-one to blame but himself. As William Hague put it Europe was an unexploded bomb in the Conservative party. Dave wasn't knifed by anyone but hoist by his own petard. A fitting end to the casual prime minister who thought no panic too big that it couldn't be dealt with by a solid essay at the last minute. The sense of grievance is absurd when the explanation for his demise lies in the man himself.
As someone who has little time for either the Tory modernisers or the traditionalists I'd quite enjoy the whole spectacle myself if we weren't all in such a precarious political position.
People were telling him that 'Strong and stable' needed to be ditched as it was becoming to parodied.
He said people told him the same about 'the long term economic plan' and that helped the Tories to win.
There was one key difference, Cameron didn't trash the 'long term economic plan' during the campaign like Mrs May did with 'strong and stable'
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/873450415450451969
Edit: Shame on me for forgetting Angry Salmond.
A new leader and a more consensual approach to Brexit is needed, but another GE would be catastrophic at this moment in time. Have it in 2019/2020 when Brexit is over.
Yes, I know Yokel says they're reformed characters now and that gun-running stuff was a long time ago. But that's exactly what Sinn Fein says and we all implicitly accept (otherwise how come we put them into power-sharing and invited them to the Palace?). And we're not proposing that Sinn Fein join the government!
https://stephendaisley.com/2017/06/10/how-the-night-of-the-long-claymores-unfolded/