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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why TMay must stay – for now
A minority government propped up on a vote-by-vote basis by a minor party where the government, even including the ally, only has a majority of about 13 (once Sinn Fein are excluded), is about as strong and stable as a three-legged gazelle roller-skating across ice.
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Brexit is going to involves a bunch of very serious trade-offs, which have been barely even acknowledged in the manifesto. Nobody knows WTF the British want - it's not even clear that the British know what they want.
The negotiations are going to involve both sides selling unpalatable things to their domestic audiences. But the other side isn't going to do that if they're dealing with a lame duck who could pull out at any time, and be replaced by somebody who won't accept the deal that they just took fire clearing the way for.
Meanwhile if the leader is a dead woman walking, she's going to be vulnerable at any point to 15% of her party not liking the sound of the things she's negotiating and deciding it's the right time for a challenge.
They need to stop faffing around and choose somebody else as leader. Just pick one, they're all pretty good.
She needs to stay for now
The best thing in the circumstances is that someone is given the task to negotiate a minimum change Brexit over the next two years. Full FOM, single market etc. this parliament will have just one task, which is to do Brexit with the least damage and the greatest consensus within the political system. Once we have left, parties can fight an election on further disconnection if they wish
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4590304/LITTLEJOHN-Theresa-managed-make-Corbyn-look-good.html
Some of the 'best' bits of the piece:
Scratch the surface, though, and the absurd notion that she was ‘strong and stable’ never stood up to serious scrutiny. Ask anyone who had dealings with her during the six years she was Home Secretary. ‘Bloody difficult woman’ wasn’t meant as a compliment. May earned a reputation for dithering and caution, bordering on cowardice, coupled with a stubborn refusal to take advice from outside her own sycophantic inner circle. .
[....]
We’ll never know for sure if she really did call this election to scupper the Remainers. My firm suspicion is that she saw a golden opportunity to reinforce her grip on power and took it, assuming that Labour was unelectable and the result was never in doubt.
Gradually, the air of invincibility and inevitability she had tried to cultivate withered and died. The truth is that it was always a mistake to confuse her massive early leads in the opinion polls with any wild excitement for her personally. Those of us who decided to vote for her anyway did so without enthusiasm.
This was the worst performance since my own beloved Tottenham Hotspur managed to finish third in a two-horse race for the Premiership two seasons ago. Pretty impressive, given that at one stage Theresa was supposed to be on course for a majority in the region of 140. If the campaign had lasted any longer, there may have been the nightmare prospect of Corbyn being installed as Prime Minister, bolstered by Wee Burney’s Toytown Tartanistas, the Lib Dems and the Welsh cottage burners. Miraculously, though, she’s still there, thanks to Ulster’s Democratic Unionists and the magnificent Tory revival in Scotland — which is some small consolation to those of us who believe in the Union.
[...]
Not only did she manage to lose the Tories their working majority, potentially scuppering Brexit in the process, she has contrived, astonishingly, to make Jeremy Corbyn an attractive alternative Prime Minister in the eyes of 40 per cent of the British electorate. A campaign which began with her intending to drive a stake through the heart of Labour has ended with her giving it the kiss of life. And nobody saw that coming.
Only a matter of time before she goes. The right-wing press has turned on her, big time.
Late on Friday I googled a couple of local seats and intrigued at the pattern... Then finally the full results popped up in a link by accident. I was stunned. It's even more shocking that #,indyref Brexit and Trump.
Obviously it's utterly hilarious. It's like something from Greek myth. Mat deserves her slow and paid full death after that truly nauseating campaign. But ... 40% for Corbynism ? Brexit negotiated by a minority government ? The DUP as NI heads toward Direct Rule ? It's catastrophic. What on earth are British voters thinking ?
I'm completely conflicted. The Wicked Witch has been slain in a truly Fairytale ending. But at the end of the first chapter not the book. Something darker clearly awaits.
http://news.sky.com/story/matter-of-time-before-theresa-mays-minority-government-crumbles-10910572
One Conservative MP thinks she will last just six months. Another has called for her to fire her top aides.
Minority governments can last: Scotland has seen examples of that. But normally it requires avoiding controversial legislation that will test the discipline of a party.
The combination of no majority, a split party and having to pass dozens of pieces of controversial Brexit legislation seems completely unsustainable.
It is a matter of when, not if, it falls apart.
I agree, now is not the time for her to go. Certainty is needed to get the negotiations on Brexit to a substantive position at the vey least, or there is a very real risk of handing even more advantage to the left.
She needs to widen the circle of influence, and give others a chance to shine too. Otherwise the field for next leader is painfully thin. If Corbyn widens his circle now and includes the moderates he could extend his appeal further than the 40% he got on Thursday - May needs to anticipate it and echo it.
Off topic, not sure if posted already last night, but this is an interesting read on the campaign targeting/leader visits:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40222733
It's perfectly clear that she has to go, by hook or by crook.
Other parties need to stay fit and prepare, and Labour needs to re-shuffle its front bench to get some big hitters back in. Some areas of policy need serious preparatory work as Labour is likely to be in government before Brexit happens.
Even Paul Mason approves:
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/873227279245168640
Think PLP will be united behind Corbyn now.
It's time I think for several from the back benches to return.
Cooper for Abbott is an obvious one.
I'd like to see Liz Kendall return too - maybe health? Could be a nice statement of unity to get some of his leadership rivals into cabinet.
Ed Miliband - perhaps to DECC?
Labour also need to be testing where the compromises are for coalition with the lib Dems and perhaps other parties also. I think they could easily assemble a majority for single market membership.
5 years of DUP governance is just what this country needs
That was one of the shocking features of the Tory campaign - that there was infinite wealth of material on Corbyn's total unsuitability as a leader of his party, and yet they didn't use ANY of it. voters could dismiss 30 year old stories from his time as a backbencher. It would have been harder to dismiss 1 year old stories from his time as a leader. Then again as nobody thought he could win it might not have made a difference.
https://twitter.com/me_stafford/status/873209534885617664
Don't think the Cons will go near LGBT rights and abortion as with the number of seats they have, they don't have wriggle room for anything controversial.
Maybe its the time of morning but who is the 'ineligable big star'? Surely you don't mean Ruth Davidson? I know Boris and Davis look like thin gruel but the idea of Ruth is ridiculous. Though affter all that was said about Scottish leaders when Labour chose one it would be pleasantly ironic.....
the DUP are primarily about money, pork barrellers
they only inflict the social misery on their own patch
as ever I find the sudden interest interest in NI - which most london types have avoided for years - tedious hypocrisy
What's the latest news from PB Tories and their Coalition of Crackpots?
Will we shortly have in the HoC the Conservatives MP's and their DUP best buddies humming "The Sash My Father Wore" during PMQ's ?
The ONLY issue facing this parliament is Brexit. Everything else will have to wait. There is no consensus in the Tory ranks about what Brexit means, so many want hard Brexit and bog off Brussels, the rest want a softer deal. Labour have been very clear that we want a Brexit which protects jobs and rights and that means full access to the single market - which we will only get by being a member of the EEA.
So as ZombieMay is allowed to front up our "negotiations" in Brussels - we say "giz it", they laugh - its how she gets it through Parliament that's front of her political genius mind. And as she knows the DUP can't allow hard brexit and neither can half her MPs including her Brexit Secretary she's too dead to move, its Labour's support she needs.
Never mind the price that Arlene Foster will charge for confidence and supply from the DUP. Think about the price Labour will charge for Brexit support. May will have to implement a whole pile of Labour friendly stuff to keep us on board - because she knows that if she doesn't and the government falls there is enough of a consensus in the house for a minority Labour government to get things like Brexit through.
We need Cooper, Chuka, Ed M all back in the cabinet. Those who have done well, who should be kept are Emily Thornberry, Angela Rayner, and Barry Gardiner. Also would like to see Clive Lewis back in the Shadow Cabinet. Maybe even roles for Jess Philipps, Stella Creasy, and Lisa Nandy too.....?
I suggest 5 years of exile in France
Britain doesn't have the time for a Conservative party leadership election, with the Brexit clock ticking, so Theresa May is stuck in the job. She may endure there a long time. John Major was labelled in office but not in power in 1993. He only left office at the electorate's hands in 1997.
It will be the Irish border question that now looks like the most problematic of the 3 initial issues. The status of EU nationals and the Danegeld are minor bites in comparison.
The implications of the government no longer being an honest broker in Stormont are serious. Who'd have thought that the collapse of a green subsidy scheme might matter so much.
The national election campaign degenerated into a disaster. The local campaigns were often the best ever. But they relied on the national stuff being half decent and as the national mood changed they were swamped.
David Herdson is quite right for the very short term but we will need someone else. I have been a sacrificial lamb plenty of times in elections and I would like to fight next year's locals with a credible national leader so I would have some prospect of holding my seat.
We got James Airey within 777 votes of taking Tim Farron out - I'm sorry, responsibility for those 777 Farron votes rests more with the Conservative national campaign than it does with us.
Theresa May, Hansard, 20 July 2006: "The Prime Minister is a lame duck and the Government are in paralysis."
PS thanks again for your precise predictions on your area. You're one of the few pb posters whose reputation has been enormously enhanced after the election result.
But I hesitate over Chuka... An apology from him over calling Labour members petulant children would be nice! I should probably let it go though... He's a good media performer and could maybe be a deputy/backup support to Starmer on Brexit.
Don't think many Corbynistas on Twitter will be happy but Corbyn will be glad to have a situation where the PLP backs him.
Corbyn's election campaign also proves his team is actually capable of organising themselves competently.
All in all, we'll see what happens. But I see Labour as being in much stronger position now after this GE than they were before and I think we'll see some consensus building.
Surely voters for SF will be thinking - we could have had a lot of say here?
Also could it mean that mainland parties decide it's worth competing for seats properly?
as for the DUP they want an openish border ( soft brexit ), lots of money spent on NHS and social care. I think Ive found who you should be voting for next time :-)
F1: P3 at 3pm, qualifying at 6pm.
The Tories need to have a contest for a Deputy PM, with the recognition that it is really succession planning. A contested leadership contest is not viable at present.
Keir Starmer is another Shadow Cabinet member I like. I think a Starmer/Chuka Shadow Brexit team would be great.
As you can see, after all that moaning from me during the GE I'm likely to be coming back into the Labour fold, despite my own misgivings about Corbyn/McDonnell!
So let them now take ownership of the defeat. Let a wailing and gnashing of teeth be heard from their parliamentary ranks and their allies in the commentariat. Let the remnants of Ukip’s bedraggled army sit down and weep by the banks of the Rother and Don.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/it-s-make-believe-to-think-may-can-survive-vlpkgldg3
If May had lost a vote in the House of Lords on Brexit in the old parliament and THEN gone to the country it would all have panned out OK.
Now, her successor has to be good at bluffing and faking sincerity.
The fact that we are now in a complete shambles quite frankly teaches the Tories a lesson. But for a salvage operation 'any old leader' wont do as has been proved by Cameron who got us into this mess in the first place.
As a Tory from three months old when he was put down for Eton he should have known that letting the party's xenophobes off their leash was going to cause mayhem. He was picked at random. A pretty face with a plummy accent and look where we are.
Sorry not bbc. I meant this one
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/jeremy-corbyn-plans-alternative-queens-speech-challenging-may
Another Tory leadership contest + general election would just be a massive waste of time and might still give a hung parliament.
She ought to try to make progress, compromise with Labour where needed and accept that at the end of the process there is likely to be little political reward for her personally.
Not sure what to do about it though!
I;d go for
8 Labour ( Belfast N,W,E, Foyle, Upper Bann, East Antrim, Lagan Valley, Newry and Armagh )
3 LD ( Belfast S, E londonderry, S Down )
7 Con ( N Down, Strangford, S Antrim, N Antrim, FST, Mid Ulster, W Tyrone )
The force is with JC and Labour! Truly unbelievable! When the next GE happens, all eyes on Uxbridge please!
Where it was less clear was Middlesbrough South and Stockton South - where I expected a Tory win in both and hoped for Labour clinging on in MSEC. In my own seat of Stockton South our campaign target was to cut Wharton's majority in half to a few thousand. Which with the assumption of most of the 5k+ UKIP votes going Tory giving him a paper majority of c. 9k was a push.
But a brilliant local campaign, an MP who told our candidate at the start that he wasn't going to campaign much because he didn't need to, and a populace sick of being taken for mugs meant that although Wharton's vote increased, ours exploded. Had an increasing suspicion as the campaign went on that Wharton was doable, but didn't want to feel disappointed with "only" achieving our original target. Whereas next door in MSEC the feeling didn't change much through the campaign that the Tories would take it until the last week when we started to feel a surge.
I don't bet, but if my eyes on the ground was profitable for others, you are more than welcome. I profit from having a Labour MP and a rejuvenated party locally.
And I'm sorry about the abuse you received from some for leaving/thinking of leaving.
Hopefully the success of Corbyn, but also of people like Peter Kyle in Hove shows people that we don't need squabbles and abuse in the Labour party, we just have to compromise and work together to win.
No more leadership contests. Just abandon Brexit and then the government can roll along quite comfortably with a non majority government as many countries do. Brexit is the problem not Theresa May's lack of a majority.
I agree, it's a bit of a leap in the dark.
She always looked to me a sad mixture of vulnerability and awkwardness.
@PolhomeEditor: Chris Leslie on #r4today making the salient point that Labour still ended up with nearly 60 seats less than the Conservatives. #GE2017
@montie: Respect to @ChrisLeslieMP on #r4today - yes Corbyn did well but gravity WILL bring him & Labour down - policies are unworkable & extreme
although
@anthonypainter: I'm afraid Chris Leslie is striking all the wrong notes here. Labour moderates need magnanimity not churlishness now. #r4today
Hard to disagree with that
"I think there's a lot of truth in that. The effect of a hung Parliament is to convert Brexit from a private Conservative affair into a cross-party discussion"
I totally fail to see the relevance of this. perhaps it's me.
Even if the discussion includes a bigger wish-list, it doesn't mean it will be achieved. Assuming all parties want the "best" deal for the UK, and I further assume they mean the best economic deal, there is going to be a discussion with the EU who will want to give us a worse economic deal.
So how does a variety of opinions on our side help?
Here's an example ...Party X takes the referendum result as its guide. FOM dead in the water (UK parliamentary control of borders), UK parliamentary control over laws, negotiate best economic trade links (the original purpose of common market). That is accepting the referendum result.
Party Y also want to accept referendum result but want to prioritise workers' rights as outlined by EU. Why would EU argue about this item as it's something they agree with? But negotiations continue as above.
Party Z want to look as if they accept referendum result but don't - they want us to remain. Argue for FOM, to retain workers' rights, and to accept EU laws. They also would be happy to pay large fee for economic free market.
EU will consider and decide party Z's arguments are best, as long as the economic fee is a little larger.
Parliament considers and (based on current membership) votes enthusiastically for plan. Deal concluded, electorate hopefully fooled.
It may be a childishly cunning plan and may work (sort of) but we'll know we've been conned. And that will permanently damage faith in politics. A price worth paying for some.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/result-happen-post-vote-survey/
Re the abuse, it's okay. I'm long over that particular moment on PB.
Hoping to see a strong opposition from Labour, strong leadership and the party united. Hopefully!
2) Delaying the starting of talks would be fine if that had delaying the end as a corollary. But it doesn't. The clock is already ticking on what is a horribly tight deadline as it is. There may even be problems caused with the Lords and the Parliament Act.
This was the point Allegra was making on the ITV coverage. Does this election result have a greater mandate than the referendum, and if so, for what exactly?
The Brexiteers claim 80% of people voted for parties that want out of the single market, but can anyone honestly claim that's what Corbyn wants, or would deliver?
You overlook that this was an election called precisely to give Theresa May a crushing mandate for her (undisclosed) vision of Brexit. The electorate refused to give it. Other views are now rightly going to carry weight.
The Bufton Tuftons who saw a particular interpretation of the referendum vote as holy writ have been outvoted.
We need someone good in charge.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/09/ruth-davidson-planning-scottish-tory-breakaway-challenges-theresa/
I don't see how Mayncan carry on for more than a few months, though. She is irretrievanly damaged,and keeping an object of national ridicule in charge simply won't work for very long.
I agree it wouldn't be much more, but anything less than zero is a step forward
At the very least they would have less baggage (unless it's Boris)
Maybe it was about Brexit after all in Scotland.