I believe most civilised people are now opposed to the death penalty. On the other hand, I think many would favour a very much tougher prison regime for terrorists where the normal privileges are severely restricted or at the very least have to be earned over time.
Despite OGH's assertion in the thread header that "the picture gets more difficult to discern", my guess is that the betting markets will move slightly in favour of the Tories today, relieved by those sizeable poll leads reported by the highly respected ICM, ComRes and ORB and I'll be surprised if we don't see the Seat spreads moving by 3 or 4 seats in favour of the Blue Team and away from Labour .
Oh I hope they are alive, so they can spend their entire life in jail.
Nah, dead's better I think.
Not if you want to get any information out of them.
So, capture alive then hanging after trial? Best of both worlds.
Not really. The death penalty is uncivilised, and in this case would likely provide no deterrent, and create willing martyrs. Executing people just to assuage justifiable public anger would lower us some of the way towards the barbarians we are fighting.
That has always been my thoughts regarding capital pubishment but my patience is wearing a bit thin.
Twitter rife with "false flag" conspiracy theories.
Just woken up expecting eager discussion of the polls. Not this crap again.
No matter what we do, we can't ever defend against vans and knives used as weapons. Hope everyone here is okay.
The "good news" is Manchester apart all we've had to face recently has been no worse than vehicles and knives - not the armoury of automatic weapons seen in Paris. I've read before that the UK is regarded as a "hard" target - may last night's prompt police action reinforce that view.
Yes, very true. AIUI it's bloody difficult for the bad guys to get guns in, UK is an island and we are very hard on anyone who gets caught.
So in last night's six polls, the Tories had leads as follows: 6% ....... Opinium 12% ..... ComRes 1% ....... Survation 9% ....... ORB 4% ....... YouGov 11% ..... ICM
Guess which one OGH chose to feature with his bar chart?
Yes it was the ONLY poll carried out after Friday's QT event. Fieldwork timing is everything.
By my reckoning this (from Survation) implies that 19 million GB adults watched the debate live. I think I'll sell there... https://t.co/jJifIIOKtY
Mrs JackW and I are travelling into central London later this morning.
We will not be changing any of our plans one iota. A nation and its people that has endured two world wars and multiple terrorist threats down the past century will not be cowed by the base wickedness and evil of those who wish to destroy us.
In the end, as in the past, it will be the great values and virtues of the British nation that will prevail. Be sure of it.
And now I hope to prevail upon Mrs JackW to provide the first drink of the day.
So in last night's six polls, the Tories had leads as follows: 6% ....... Opinium 12% ..... ComRes 1% ....... Survation 9% ....... ORB 4% ....... YouGov 11% ..... ICM
Guess which one OGH chose to feature with his bar chart?
Yes it was the ONLY poll carried out after Friday's QT event. Fieldwork timing is everything.
By my reckoning this (from Survation) implies that 19 million GB adults watched the debate live. I think I'll sell there... https://t.co/jJifIIOKtY
What do we reckon?
Doing a poll is always voluntary, however the pollster reaches you. It is becoming obvious that the information we get back is about people who are engaged at least to a moderate level, and that there is a question as to how representative of the non-engaged this might be? Perhaps it hasn't mattered in the past because many of the non-engaged haven't voted and the rest have broken in line with the rest of us. This time, with such stark age-related VI patterns, it appears it might matter more. But who can really say?
Mrs JackW and I are travelling into central London later this morning.
We will not be changing any of our plans one iota. A nation and its people that has endured two world wars and multiple terrorist threats down the past century will not be cowed by the base wickedness and evil of those who wish to destroy us.
In the end, as in the past, it will be the great values and virtues of the British nation that will prevail. Be sure of it.
And now I hope to prevail upon Mrs JackW to provide the first drink of the day.
Drink Tea And Carry On.
Have a good day Jack, but didn't you get Paddy's letter asking for help in St Albans this weekend!
Mrs JackW and I are travelling into central London later this morning.
We will not be changing any of our plans one iota. A nation and its people that has endured two world wars and multiple terrorist threats down the past century will not be cowed by the base wickedness and evil of those who wish to destroy us.
In the end, as in the past, it will be the great values and virtues of the British nation that will prevail. Be sure of it.
And now I hope to prevail upon Mrs JackW to provide the first drink of the day.
Drink Tea And Carry On.
Have a good day Jack, but didn't you get Paddy's letter asking for help in St Albans this weekend!
Thank you, but I'll eat my hat before I follow Paddy Ashdown's begging letter.
So in last night's six polls, the Tories had leads as follows: 6% ....... Opinium 12% ..... ComRes 1% ....... Survation 9% ....... ORB 4% ....... YouGov 11% ..... ICM
Guess which one OGH chose to feature with his bar chart?
Yes it was the ONLY poll carried out after Friday's QT event. Fieldwork timing is everything.
We'd require far more post QT polls to see if that was really a trend. A sample of one is hardly robust.
Anyway, we also need to see post half-term fieldwork. I'm generally sceptical of polling during May bank holiday half-terms.
Loving God, Welcome into your arms the victims of violence and terrorism. Comfort their families and all who grieve for them. Help us in our fear and uncertainty, And bless us with the knowledge that we are secure in your love. Strengthen all those who work for peace, And may the peace the world cannot give reign in our hearts.
Already read two Labour friends posting about false flag on Facebook. Unfriending time.
It's a tad harsh of you to unfriend those who are receiving acute treatment in the "Care in the Community Programme".
I don't mind people having divergent political views from me, but they have been getting more extreme over this election. Went past an Anna Soubry sign with "vote labour" spray painted over it yesterday, and people think that's fine because the Tories are "scum".... The hatred from the left is getting worse and a number see it as fine because the Tories are awful, it's childlike thinking.
Picture's very stable. Lib Dems on 8-9%, UKIP 4-5%. At the top end, that's a bloody wild set of numbers. Regardless of the political result, in polling terms half the field are going to look bloody daft.
Loving God, Welcome into your arms the victims of violence and terrorism. Comfort their families and all who grieve for them. Help us in our fear and uncertainty, And bless us with the knowledge that we are secure in your love. Strengthen all those who work for peace, And may the peace the world cannot give reign in our hearts.
What are pb-ers expectations about a postponement, as is being suggested. Can it be done legally? And if so, in a holiday season especially for the elderly, will late applications for a postal vote be allowed.
What are pb-ers expectations about a postponement, as is being suggested. Can it be done legally? And if so, in a holiday season especially for the elderly, will late applications for a postal vote be allowed.
Writs are moved, there is no parliament; I am not sure how it could be done. In any event I don't think it will be; I don't see that anyone will be arguing for it?
What are pb-ers expectations about a postponement, as is being suggested. Can it be done legally? And if so, in a holiday season especially for the elderly, will late applications for a postal vote be allowed.
Wrong thing for democracy, and if terrorists are using election as excuse, gives more time for further attacks.
What are pb-ers expectations about a postponement, as is being suggested. Can it be done legally? And if so, in a holiday season especially for the elderly, will late applications for a postal vote be allowed.
Likely campaigning postponed - election will still go ahead.
Also how can they hold the Manchester concert. I believe it was arranged too early anyway
Picture's very stable. Lib Dems on 8-9%, UKIP 4-5%. At the top end, that's a bloody wild set of numbers. Regardless of the political result, in polling terms half the field are going to look bloody daft.
Morning Mr Dancer, a wild set of results indeed, but we’ll not know which until next Thursday.
So in last night's six polls, the Tories had leads as follows: 6% ....... Opinium 12% ..... ComRes 1% ....... Survation 9% ....... ORB 4% ....... YouGov 11% ..... ICM
Guess which one OGH chose to feature with his bar chart?
Yes it was the ONLY poll carried out after Friday's QT event. Fieldwork timing is everything.
By my reckoning this (from Survation) implies that 19 million GB adults watched the debate live. I think I'll sell there... https://t.co/jJifIIOKtY
What do we reckon?
The Survation details actually have most only having 'heard' about it or seen clips of it, less than 20% actually watched it and ICM finished Friday night
I would imagine if it hasnt already done so the threat level needs to go back to critical just to protect polling stations on Thursday.
Provided voters are not enjoying themselves, they ought to be safe. Recent attacks here and in France have included concerts, football matches and tourist areas. Have there been any attacks against political targets? The Westminster Bridge murderer ran into Parliament but that was after he'd mown down the tourists. It's fun the terrorists can't abide.
Making fun of people for overreacting is one thing. Making fun of people for being scared, as you have done earlier and not in a jokey way, is despicable.
What are pb-ers expectations about a postponement, as is being suggested. Can it be done legally? And if so, in a holiday season especially for the elderly, will late applications for a postal vote be allowed.
Writs are moved, there is no parliament; I am not sure how it could be done. In any event I don't think it will be; I don't see that anyone will be arguing for it?
These attacks are clearly linked to the election as were increased attacks in France, postponing the election unfortunately increases the risks of yet more attacks even further, the election has to be on Thursday even if campaignining is suspended today
What are pb-ers expectations about a postponement, as is being suggested. Can it be done legally? And if so, in a holiday season especially for the elderly, will late applications for a postal vote be allowed.
Likely campaigning postponed - election will still go ahead.
Also how can they hold the Manchester concert. I believe it was arranged too early anyway
It will go ahead with massive security around the venue. Don't let the bastards win.
King Cole, it would be absolutely wrong. Are we going to let terrorists determine the timetable of our democracy as we've allowed them in large part to impose a de facto blasphemy law on the mainstream print and broadcast media?
I don't know about anyone else, but If I find out that the "surge " was a myth due to crap polling, I will be bloody angry. It has caused a lot of worry.
It could happen that labour out poll the tories. I don't see how they get more seats, but the more they see if labour the more they like them. Christ knows why peopke voted against them so much in the locals if they were so prepared to switch to about now.
Could be a new pm in a week, even if it isn't Corbyn.
King Cole, it would be absolutely wrong. Are we going to let terrorists determine the timetable of our democracy as we've allowed them in large part to impose a de facto blasphemy law on the mainstream print and broadcast media?
Thanks all; that was my view but apparently there were calls. As I’m going away for two weeks on Thursday I didn’t want to miss the chance of applying a strong cleaner to the stable.
Oops Trump's tweet may have just made a huge mistake on twitter because US government lawyers have been arguing in the appellate courts that it is NOT a ban.
Despite OGH's assertion in the thread header that "the picture gets more difficult to discern", my guess is that the betting markets will move slightly in favour of the Tories today, relieved by those sizeable poll leads reported by the highly respected ICM, ComRes and ORB and I'll be surprised if we don't see the Seat spreads moving by 3 or 4 seats in favour of the Blue Team and away from Labour .
They all clearly have no idea, and white must show comfortable tory wins, the tighter ones could well be right even though sub 40 Tory looks like an outlier. You might as well read goat entrails.
What are pb-ers expectations about a postponement, as is being suggested. Can it be done legally? And if so, in a holiday season especially for the elderly, will late applications for a postal vote be allowed.
Wrong thing for democracy, and if terrorists are using election as excuse, gives more time for further attacks.
Agreed. Enough. They delayed campaigning after Manchester, but to be blunt, we had time to do so.
It could happen that labour out poll the tories. I don't see how they get more seats, but the more they see if labour the more they like them. Christ knows why peopke voted against them so much in the locals if they were so prepared to switch to about now.
Could be a new pm in a week, even if it isn't Corbyn.
Apart from Comres and ICM and maybe ORB the polls are all likely to be as wrong as they were in 2015 in my view, remember in 2015 Yougov and Survation had it tied in their final polls and the Tories won by 7%, ICM was also badly out but has now adjusted this time properly and Comres had the Tories on 35% and the Tories ahead in their final poll so I trust Comres most especially as it has also adjusted properly based on 2015 turnout. It also looks like Corbyn will do worse in the marginals which are mainly market, industrial and seaside towns and the suburbs than the popular vote given the Labour surge is focused on the inner cities ie the inner cities like inner London, Manchester, Hull and Liverpool and Bristol and towns with a university which most of the most marginal Labour seats e.g. Chorley, Walsall, Bridgend etc don't have
What are pb-ers expectations about a postponement, as is being suggested. Can it be done legally? And if so, in a holiday season especially for the elderly, will late applications for a postal vote be allowed.
Writs are moved, there is no parliament; I am not sure how it could be done. In any event I don't think it will be; I don't see that anyone will be arguing for it?
These attacks are clearly linked to the election as were increased attacks in France, postponing the election unfortunately increases the risks of yet more attacks even further, the election has to be on Thursday even if campaignining is suspended today
More likely linked to Ramadan if there was anything at all significant in the timing. No politicians or activists were attacked.
By and large, the public gets on with life. It's the politicians who say we won't be cowed but then undermine it by suspending normal activity, viz campaigning.
What are pb-ers expectations about a postponement, as is being suggested. Can it be done legally? And if so, in a holiday season especially for the elderly, will late applications for a postal vote be allowed.
Wrong thing for democracy, and if terrorists are using election as excuse, gives more time for further attacks.
Agreed. Enough. They delayed campaigning after Manchester, but to be blunt, we had time to do so.
Sadiq Khan says campaigning should NOT be suspended.
What are pb-ers expectations about a postponement, as is being suggested. Can it be done legally? And if so, in a holiday season especially for the elderly, will late applications for a postal vote be allowed.
Wrong thing for democracy, and if terrorists are using election as excuse, gives more time for further attacks.
Agreed. Enough. They delayed campaigning after Manchester, but to be blunt, we had time to do so.
Agreed - wrong thing for democracy to let terrorists disrupt it.
The 2001 Foot and Mouth delay was due to the difficulties of campaigning and voting due to the movement restrictions in place. We have no analogous issues at the moment.
We need the poll on Thursday so we have a government in place and mandated to act.
Suspension of national campaign is just a reflection of the fact that many of the people leading on that have probably got other priorities at this particular moment.
Miss DiCanio, saw a tweet with a thousand likes/RTs, claiming the attackers couldn't be Muslim because it's Ramadan.
That may be the mainstream muslim community disavowing the terrorists, or at least it probably started that way before being taken up by the tin foil brigade.
"If I find out that the "surge " was a myth due to crap polling, I will be bloody angry. It has caused a lot of worry."
I doubt it's that wrong. One party promises goodies for all, the other promises more gloom. Incidentally, Andy Burnham may be a bit of a tit, but he did propose a non-governmental move to combine medical care and social care a few years ago, but the Tories shouted him down. it was a political move on his part, but still ...
I've just got up to this London tragedy, I may be going out on a limb here, but my first reaction isn't that it's caused by seventy-year-old nuns.
Making fun of people for overreacting is one thing. Making fun of people for being scared, as you have done earlier and not in a jokey way, is despicable.
SeanT had lunch with his 11 year old daughter in the Borough Market yesterday lunchtime. This was an unusually personal attack to him.
What are pb-ers expectations about a postponement, as is being suggested. Can it be done legally? And if so, in a holiday season especially for the elderly, will late applications for a postal vote be allowed.
Wrong thing for democracy, and if terrorists are using election as excuse, gives more time for further attacks.
Agreed. Enough. They delayed campaigning after Manchester, but to be blunt, we had time to do so.
Sadiq Khan says campaigning should NOT be suspended.
Survation poll [ lead = 1% ]: Their weighted sample has 10/10 turnout of 18-24 year olds = 50%, 35-54 year olds = 66.9% and 55+ year olds =78.3%
Those who voted Tory in 2015 and has a 10/10 chance of voting, 78.2% are saying they will vote Tory. The equivalent Labour vote is 84.4%
Survation had the Tories on 31% in their final publiished 2015 poll, in the end the Tories got over 37%!
Wrong last time doesn't mean wrong this time, or vice versa.
(Snip)
I fear that one mistake pollsters make is that they don't analyse things much when they get the right answer. Political polling has so many adjustments, and is so complex, that it is perfectly possible that they get roughly the right answer for the wrong reasons, and that such a success lulls them into a false sense that their system is correct.
Some of these polls have to be wrong. The ones that are proven 'right' on Friday morning might only be accidentally right.
Making fun of people for overreacting is one thing. Making fun of people for being scared, as you have done earlier and not in a jokey way, is despicable.
SeanT had lunch with his 11 year old daughter in the Borough Market yesterday lunchtime. This was an unusually personal attack to him.
I know. And mocking him for being scared like a little girl, I just don't know why someone thinks that is helpful. Even if panic is indeed also unhelpful.
Suspension of national campaign is just a reflection of the fact that many of the people leading on that have probably got other priorities at this particular moment.
Really, what was the prime minister doing? She's been nigh-on invisible for most of the campaign, along with the chancellor. That's not why campaigning has been suspended, and it's a shame it has been because it hands another small victory to the terrorists.
What are pb-ers expectations about a postponement, as is being suggested. Can it be done legally? And if so, in a holiday season especially for the elderly, will late applications for a postal vote be allowed.
Writs are moved, there is no parliament; I am not sure how it could be done. In any event I don't think it will be; I don't see that anyone will be arguing for it?
These attacks are clearly linked to the election as were increased attacks in France, postponing the election unfortunately increases the risks of yet more attacks even further, the election has to be on Thursday even if campaignining is suspended today
More likely linked to Ramadan if there was anything at all significant in the timing. No politicians or activists were attacked.
By and large, the public gets on with life. It's the politicians who say we won't be cowed but then undermine it by suspending normal activity, viz campaigning.
To be fair to May she has other priorities today than campaigning and Corbyn can't campaign either though local campaigns should continue and I am due in Ilford at 10 30
Survation poll [ lead = 1% ]: Their weighted sample has 10/10 turnout of 18-24 year olds = 50%, 35-54 year olds = 66.9% and 55+ year olds =78.3%
Those who voted Tory in 2015 and has a 10/10 chance of voting, 78.2% are saying they will vote Tory. The equivalent Labour vote is 84.4%
Survation had the Tories on 31% in their final publiished 2015 poll, in the end the Tories got over 37%!
Wrong last time doesn't mean wrong this time, or vice versa.
(Snip)
I fear that one mistake pollsters make is that they don't analyse things much when they get the right answer. Political polling has so many adjustments, and is so complex, that it is perfectly possible that they get roughly the right answer for the wrong reasons, and that such a success lulls them into a false sense that their system is correct.
Some of these polls have to be wrong. The ones that are proven 'right' on Friday morning might only be accidentally right.
Yep. I think the apocalypse had a good post the other day about why we allow polls to control the narrative even when they have been so wrong before and might be again. It's frustrating. At least they aren't all herding, but the trend from the start is still all on way just by different degrees, I'm prepare to accept that means the direction of travel is correct, but even that could be wrong.
Suspension of national campaign is just a reflection of the fact that many of the people leading on that have probably got other priorities at this particular moment.
Really, what was the prime minister doing? She's been nigh-on invisible for most of the campaign, along with the chancellor. That's not why campaigning has been suspended, and it's a shame it has been because it hands another small victory to the terrorists.
The PM is chairing cobra this morning and she will have briefings all day.
Survation poll [ lead = 1% ]: Their weighted sample has 10/10 turnout of 18-24 year olds = 50%, 35-54 year olds = 66.9% and 55+ year olds =78.3%
Those who voted Tory in 2015 and has a 10/10 chance of voting, 78.2% are saying they will vote Tory. The equivalent Labour vote is 84.4%
Survation had the Tories on 31% in their final publiished 2015 poll, in the end the Tories got over 37%!
Wrong last time doesn't mean wrong this time, or vice versa.
Corbyn is very very unlikely to be pm next week. But may could well be on the way out too.
If they have failed to make any real adjustment this time as Survation have not compared to 2015 it actually does mean they are most probably wrong this time too
Impressed that police had all 3 attackers shot dead within 8 minutes of attack starting, as is being reported. I wonder how quickly an armed response could happen outside cental London.
So lab no lower than 34 on any of the polls yesterday. This surge truly is real.
Given the Tories are no lower than 40% and as high as 47% and they got 37% last time you could equally say the Tory surge relative to 2015 is real too
Yes, but that doesn't surprise me like the labour surge. Or concern me as much (even though them winning by a huge amount I don't think is good for good governance).
Impressed that police had all 3 attackers shot dead within 8 minutes of attack starting, as is being reported. I wonder how quickly an armed response could happen outside cental London.
It is impressive and demonstrates the value of their training and dedication.
Impressed that police had all 3 attackers shot dead within 8 minutes of attack starting, as is being reported. I wonder how quickly an armed response could happen outside cental London.
Is that really true? Doesn't really fit with what appeared to be happening on the ground (as observed by those of us following it on here last night). All of those reports seemed to imply 2 shot with one still at large.
Suspension of national campaign is just a reflection of the fact that many of the people leading on that have probably got other priorities at this particular moment.
Really, what was the prime minister doing? She's been nigh-on invisible for most of the campaign, along with the chancellor. That's not why campaigning has been suspended, and it's a shame it has been because it hands another small victory to the terrorists.
The PM is chairing cobra this morning and she will have briefings all day.
Of course the PM is busy with Cobra, but she was never leading the campaign; Crosby and Messina can carry on as usual. That's the point -- it would have been better, and trivially easy, to have continued the campaign without the PM.
Impressed that police had all 3 attackers shot dead within 8 minutes of attack starting, as is being reported. I wonder how quickly an armed response could happen outside cental London.
Is that really true? Doesn't really fit with what appeared to be happening on the ground (as observed by those of us following it on here last night). All of those reports seemed to imply 2 shot with one still at large.
Impressed that police had all 3 attackers shot dead within 8 minutes of attack starting, as is being reported. I wonder how quickly an armed response could happen outside cental London.
The thought of how long something like this might run for in a rural market town is horrifying.
What are pb-ers expectations about a postponement, as is being suggested. Can it be done legally? And if so, in a holiday season especially for the elderly, will late applications for a postal vote be allowed.
Picture's very stable. Lib Dems on 8-9%, UKIP 4-5%. At the top end, that's a bloody wild set of numbers. Regardless of the political result, in polling terms half the field are going to look bloody daft.
In previous elections we had many marginals polls, that doesn't seem to have happened this time.Is it because nobody can be sure what a marginal is anymore? I wonder whether the result in seats could be very different to the result in votes this time.
Suspension of national campaign is just a reflection of the fact that many of the people leading on that have probably got other priorities at this particular moment.
Really, what was the prime minister doing? She's been nigh-on invisible for most of the campaign, along with the chancellor. That's not why campaigning has been suspended, and it's a shame it has been because it hands another small victory to the terrorists.
The PM is chairing cobra this morning and she will have briefings all day.
Of course the PM is busy with Cobra, but she was never leading the campaign; Crosby and Messina can carry on as usual. That's the point -- it would have been better, and trivially easy, to have continued the campaign without the PM.
Well what does "suspending the national campaign" actually mean in practice? I suspect it means election related appearances by leading party figures in the national media. Which isn't Crosby/Messina.
Presumably McDonnell will still appear on Marr etc, just the content will be different.
Impressed that police had all 3 attackers shot dead within 8 minutes of attack starting, as is being reported. I wonder how quickly an armed response could happen outside cental London.
The thought of how long something like this might run for in a rural market town is horrifying.
Suspension of national campaign is just a reflection of the fact that many of the people leading on that have probably got other priorities at this particular moment.
Really, what was the prime minister doing? She's been nigh-on invisible for most of the campaign, along with the chancellor. That's not why campaigning has been suspended, and it's a shame it has been because it hands another small victory to the terrorists.
The PM is chairing cobra this morning and she will have briefings all day.
Of course the PM is busy with Cobra, but she was never leading the campaign; Crosby and Messina can carry on as usual. That's the point -- it would have been better, and trivially easy, to have continued the campaign without the PM.
It is the national campaign the local campaigns will continue I assume
Mr. L, Labour attacked and the media headlined May as 'subservient' for not criticising Trump enough over the Paris accords. If she didn't suspend the campaign then I suspect, particularly after the excessively long suspension after Manchester, she would've been painted as heartless.
Since we defend the need for campaigns to go on, for politics to go on, here goes re any impact:
We will have no way of knowing, since the polls are all over the place and if the polls move or the end result is more one way than the other, for all we know it was happening anyway.
That said, some will harden their voting intentions in response, perhaps deliberately determined not to let tragedy affect their intention and others feeling it enforces their view that Corbyn is not strong enough on security or that May has failed due to cutting police. The reasonabless of either view is irrelevant. Any switchers will probably be slight in any polls, andcso seem like regular movement,
The "sweeties for all" approach from team Corbyn is worrying, I didn't have a great respect for Ed Milliband but at least he lived in the real world and wanted to stick to trying to undertake change that could be managed. McDonnell wants to raise taxes hugely, borrow more, spend more and disrupt the economy just before we enter Brexit. Most of his plans don't even have an end result, we have a skills shortage so to solve this....free tuition fees! We think electricity prices are high...nationalise! None of it has been thought through, none of it effectively analysed for knock on effects in the long term.
Totally against campaign suspension, its a cop out, virtue signalling. I want May and Corbyn to knock on my door so I can ask them what they plan to do next friday.
Everything: NHS, economy, dementia tax, fades into insignificance against this.
What are pb-ers expectations about a postponement, as is being suggested. Can it be done legally? And if so, in a holiday season especially for the elderly, will late applications for a postal vote be allowed.
Absobloodylutely not. Next?
Some folks saying there is postponement precedent with 2001 (Foot and Mouth crisis) but wasn't that actually ostponement in the calling of the election resulting in a June rather than a May election? Technically speaking not a postponement at all. Correct me if I am wrong.
Either way - surely there is no precedent for a postponement 4 days from polling day?
Totally against campaign suspension, its a cop out, virtue signalling. I want May and Corbyn to knock on my door so I can ask them what they plan to do next friday.
Everything: NHS, economy, dementia tax, fades into insignificance against this.
Yes obviously right now May should be wandering around knocking on doors.
Mr. O, I agree entirely. It's unicorns and pixie dust, fairy stories and magic beans. And the media (and Conservatives) aren't being remotely competent at pointing out it's bloody insane.
Mr. Song, there's also a weird effect if one party gets a mega-share (say the Conservatives get 45% or more). In such circumstances even a smallish lead can yield huge seat numbers.
Impressed that police had all 3 attackers shot dead within 8 minutes of attack starting, as is being reported. I wonder how quickly an armed response could happen outside cental London.
One of the clips that will doubtless be prominent on YouTube for the next 96 hours is that one of Corbyn saying he's uneasy about police shooting armed attackers dead.
Which would be rather unfair given (a) that's not exactly what he said, in context, and (b) in light of the police under the command of a woman who is now Commissioner shooting dead a Brazilian electrician and then trying to cover it up, it was actually a reasonable point.
It could happen that labour out poll the tories. I don't see how they get more seats, but the more they see if labour the more they like them. Christ knows why peopke voted against them so much in the locals if they were so prepared to switch to about now.
Could be a new pm in a week, even if it isn't Corbyn.
If the local elections hadn't happened during the campaign I might be wobbling over my Tory Maj bet.
In times of trouble and danger, people will tend to hang onto nurse for fear of something worse. Security is paramount. Britain is reaping the reward of allowing the immigration of so many people with alien values, and tragically now sees the River Thames foaming with much blood. May's victory on 8/6 is now nailed on, and all the opinion polls published yesterday before 10 pm support this premise. The only question is the size of the Tory majority.
Picture's very stable. Lib Dems on 8-9%, UKIP 4-5%. At the top end, that's a bloody wild set of numbers. Regardless of the political result, in polling terms half the field are going to look bloody daft.
In previous elections we had many marginals polls, that doesn't seem to have happened this time.Is it because nobody can be sure what a marginal is anymore? I wonder whether the result in seats could be very different to the result in votes this time.
I expect the results to follow the US presidential and Congressional election and the French first round in that the right will do better in seats/districts won and the left and Corbyn relatively better in the popular vote because of Corbyn's above average voteshare in the inner cities. Remember 200 seats voted Remain and 400 Leave but Leave only won the popular vote by 4%
Totally against campaign suspension, its a cop out, virtue signalling. I want May and Corbyn to knock on my door so I can ask them what they plan to do next friday.
Everything: NHS, economy, dementia tax, fades into insignificance against this.
Yes obviously right now May should be wandering around knocking on doors.
I don't suppose she's knocked a door in years. I don't want her locked away with advisors preparing a statement, she's PM, I want her to tell us what she's going to do. I want to see her instincts.
From where I'm sat it seems not a lot which is one of the reasons I won't be voting for her.
Mr. L, Labour attacked and the media headlined May as 'subservient' for not criticising Trump enough over the Paris accords. If she didn't suspend the campaign then I suspect, particularly after the excessively long suspension after Manchester, she would've been painted as heartless.
I doubt Labour has anything to do with it but you may be right about Manchester having created a precedent.
The "sweeties for all" approach from team Corbyn is worrying, I didn't have a great respect for Ed Milliband but at least he lived in the real world and wanted to stick to trying to undertake change that could be managed. McDonnell wants to raise taxes hugely, borrow more, spend more and disrupt the economy just before we enter Brexit. Most of his plans don't even have an end result, we have a skills shortage so to solve this....free tuition fees! We think electricity prices are high...nationalise! None of it has been thought through, none of it effectively analysed for knock on effects in the long term.
Sadly your last sentence could be applied to both campaigns.
I don't know about anyone else, but If I find out that the "surge " was a myth due to crap polling, I will be bloody angry. It has caused a lot of worry.
Having bought Con seats at the bottom of the spread market, I won't complain too much
Comments
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/871201696483037184
https://twitter.com/GaryMcIvor22/status/871148112655650817
I once went door knocking with this guy. He got 16 years, killers get less.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/tory-candidate-marcus-simpson-jailed-gun-smuggling-497496
What do we reckon?
We will not be changing any of our plans one iota. A nation and its people that has endured two world wars and multiple terrorist threats down the past century will not be cowed by the base wickedness and evil of those who wish to destroy us.
In the end, as in the past, it will be the great values and virtues of the British nation that will prevail. Be sure of it.
And now I hope to prevail upon Mrs JackW to provide the first drink of the day.
Drink Tea And Carry On.
Paul Mason has probably defended Labour in this GE more than some Shadow Cabinet members have!
Anyway, we also need to see post half-term fieldwork. I'm generally sceptical of polling during May bank holiday half-terms.
Loving God,
Welcome into your arms the victims of violence and terrorism.
Comfort their families and all who grieve for them.
Help us in our fear and uncertainty,
And bless us with the knowledge that we are secure in your love.
Strengthen all those who work for peace,
And may the peace the world cannot give reign in our hearts.
Amen
The hatred from the left is getting worse and a number see it as fine because the Tories are awful, it's childlike thinking.
Picture's very stable. Lib Dems on 8-9%, UKIP 4-5%. At the top end, that's a bloody wild set of numbers. Regardless of the political result, in polling terms half the field are going to look bloody daft.
Edited extra bit: story's updated in the last minute but seems the attack happened late yesterday.
Also how can they hold the Manchester concert. I believe it was arranged too early anyway
Could be a new pm in a week, even if it isn't Corbyn.
Modern British leadership says run, hide and give up.
By and large, the public gets on with life. It's the politicians who say we won't be cowed but then undermine it by suspending normal activity, viz campaigning.
Corbyn is very very unlikely to be pm next week. But may could well be on the way out too.
The 2001 Foot and Mouth delay was due to the difficulties of campaigning and voting due to the movement restrictions in place. We have no analogous issues at the moment.
We need the poll on Thursday so we have a government in place and mandated to act.
"If I find out that the "surge " was a myth due to crap polling, I will be bloody angry. It has caused a lot of worry."
I doubt it's that wrong. One party promises goodies for all, the other promises more gloom. Incidentally, Andy Burnham may be a bit of a tit, but he did propose a non-governmental move to combine medical care and social care a few years ago, but the Tories shouted him down. it was a political move on his part, but still ...
I've just got up to this London tragedy, I may be going out on a limb here, but my first reaction isn't that it's caused by seventy-year-old nuns.
Some of these polls have to be wrong. The ones that are proven 'right' on Friday morning might only be accidentally right.
Or maybe they just weren't sure.
I wonder whether the result in seats could be very different to the result in votes this time.
Presumably McDonnell will still appear on Marr etc, just the content will be different.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumbria_shootings
We will have no way of knowing, since the polls are all over the place and if the polls move or the end result is more one way than the other, for all we know it was happening anyway.
That said, some will harden their voting intentions in response, perhaps deliberately determined not to let tragedy affect their intention and others feeling it enforces their view that Corbyn is not strong enough on security or that May has failed due to cutting police. The reasonabless of either view is irrelevant. Any switchers will probably be slight in any polls, andcso seem like regular movement,
McDonnell wants to raise taxes hugely, borrow more, spend more and disrupt the economy just before we enter Brexit. Most of his plans don't even have an end result, we have a skills shortage so to solve this....free tuition fees! We think electricity prices are high...nationalise!
None of it has been thought through, none of it effectively analysed for knock on effects in the long term.
Everything: NHS, economy, dementia tax, fades into insignificance against this.
Either way - surely there is no precedent for a postponement 4 days from polling day?
Mr. Song, there's also a weird effect if one party gets a mega-share (say the Conservatives get 45% or more). In such circumstances even a smallish lead can yield huge seat numbers.
Which would be rather unfair given (a) that's not exactly what he said, in context, and (b) in light of the police under the command of a woman who is now Commissioner shooting dead a Brazilian electrician and then trying to cover it up, it was actually a reasonable point.
From where I'm sat it seems not a lot which is one of the reasons I won't be voting for her.