The massive Labour protest that greeted Amber Rudd "Where's May" works in the Tories' favour I think.
Why?
It's like when John Major was pelted by eggs in 1992. Some people don't like that sort of spectacle. It looks like the rule of the mob taking over. I understand some Labour voters hate Tories, I mean really hate them and their emotions carry them away but it repels non tribal Labour people i.e. 70% plus of the population.
We have a long and proud tradition of noisy, sometimes rowdy political events in Britain. It is a tradition I am particularly proud of. If people don't like our culture...
Oh of course Labour should be allowed to do it, but I think it is counterproductive to the mass audience
"Why's May not there" "Biased audience and hecklers, why should she turn up for this shitshow"
Fair enough. However,dealing with hecklers is also a skill a leader should have. Not vital, admittedly.
The BBC asked polling company ComRes to pick audience that is representative of the country demographically and politically.
If we assume they managed it, and that, however bad those in the room thought Rudd did (she was no trainwreck though) some must still have supported her, they were awfully, awfully quiet in support.
To kitchen cabinet at 10.07 And does all this not totally discredit the panel system? AIUI we have more polls now because the new methodologies make it cheaper. But are these methods undermining the randomness which again AIUI are vital to make the polling accurate. I am not fully conversant with this YG model (which i saw the bbc call 'a poll') but its spreads seem particularly wide. And so meaningless. Is it just feeding the beast what it wants on the name of publicity?
Given Angela Rayner is supposed to be one of Labour's star assets (?) and Education is one of their key attack points, interesting to see where she has been going given you would have thought Labour would use her in key areas.
West Midlands looks sensible enough for Labour - Erdington, Selly Oak, Coventry and Leamington Spa (last one probably out of their reach). North West looks slightly odd - her own seat (threat?), Wirral West (makes sense), Ellesmere Port (ditto), Weaver Vale (ditto) but then seats like Leigh and Wallasey, which you would have thought were safe Labour. But the North East does look like a weird selection - yes, seats like Darlington and Bishop Auckland (and Redcar) which make sense but then visits to seats like NW Durham, Easington a and Blaydon, which should all be safe Labour. Why would you do that with such a short amount of time left?
I am sure Labour activists will tell me this is normal but it seems odd to send one of your stars to seats like these if you were seeing the surge in support some of the polls are reporting.
Just a thought about YouGov and what are in some ways effectively tracker polls. Given that the same people are being polled over and over again, isn't it likely that those least interested in participating on their panel will become less and less likely to complete their polls over time? Leaving the hard core fighting it out?
I applauded May when she proposed the policy, then she rowed back on it, and now no-one really knows what the policy is (capped at £????)?
With regards to the levels that tuition fees are set at, currently the vast majority of people are unlikely to ever pay back their loans, especially as inflation rises so it in effects acts like an additional 9% tax on income for those unfortunate enough to be born after 1995, so it is likely that they could be lowered to back to the £3000 level at a minimal cost. Any cost incurred could be easily offset by things such as means testing the state pension or creating a pensioner health-care levy on pensioners.
In all honesty the politics of the UK seems to be just so far removed from my politics that its come to the point where I want to maximise my economic wellbeing and get out.
It wouldn't be minimal cost. It is a graduate tax, of course you are right, but it's actually going to pay off most of the principal over the 30 years of the average graduate earnings. Some may not pay much, but others will pay far more. The real killer, and to this extent I do agree, is the interest on it, which will prove problematic for people repaying it. However, that is a different problem that probably can be adjusted.
Also the cost of tuition on most university courses is more than £9,000 (although that also says a lot about the corruption and inefficiency of HE). So even now they are running at a loss. Corbyn has proposed to increase that loss substantially. Guess where cuts fall under such circumstances? Hint: not where they should. The first subjects to die would be Stem, which is very expensive to run.
The policy May espoused is still there. There has been the suggestion of possible watering down further on, but no change to the manifesto. So if you approve of it, you have the option of voting for it.
Anyway, hope you have found that instructive. Good night.
Freezing the threshold means far, far more graduates will now be forced to pay back their entire loan + interest (@rpi+3%). Even lower earners will pay back significantly more of their loan.
In a medium/high interest environment (and with wages rising in response), the threshold freeze will have a really significant impact on the living standards of these graduates.
Osborne knew this when he did it last year - a massive, deferred tax rise on new graduates.
When the Plan 2 book is sold off it'll raise way more money for the treasury, than it would have done with the previous threshold in place.
I applauded May when she proposed the policy, then she rowed back on it, and now no-one really knows what the policy is (capped at £????)?
With regards to the levels that tuition fees are set at, currently the vast majority of people are unlikely to ever pay back their loans, especially as inflation rises so it in effects acts like an additional 9% tax on income for those unfortunate enough to be born after 1995, so it is likely that they could be lowered to back to the £3000 level at a minimal cost. Any cost incurred could be easily offset by things such as means testing the state pension or creating a pensioner health-care levy on pensioners.
In all honesty the politics of the UK seems to be just so far removed from my politics that its come to the point where I want to maximise my economic wellbeing and get out.
It wouldn't be minimal cost. It is a graduate tax, of course you are right, but it's actually going to pay off most of the principal over the 30 years of the average graduate earnings. Some may not pay much, but others will pay far more. The real killer, and to this extent I do agree, is the interest on it, which will prove problematic for people repaying it. However, that is a different problem that probably can be adjusted.
Also the cost of tuition on most university courses is more than £9,000 (although that also says a lot about the corruption and inefficiency of HE). So even now they are running at a loss. Corbyn has proposed to increase that loss substantially. Guess where cuts fall under such circumstances? Hint: not where they should. The first subjects to die would be Stem, which is very expensive to run.
The policy May espoused is still there. There has been the suggestion of possible watering down further on, but no change to the manifesto. So if you approve of it, you have the option of voting for it.
Anyway, hope you have found that instructive. Good night.
Freezing the threshold means far, far more graduates will now be forced to pay back their entire loan + interest (@rpi+3%). Even lower earners will pay back significantly more of their loan.
In a medium/high interest environment (and with wages rising in response), the threshold freeze will have a really significant impact on the living standards of these graduates.
Osborne knew this when he did it last year - a massive, deferred tax rise on new graduates.
When the Plan 2 book is sold off it'll raise way more money for the treasury, than it would have done with the previous threshold in place.
Yeah, as far as I can ascertain, if you live overseas then they can't trace your income, and hence don't know how much you have to repay .
Not quite. Tory team here say Rudd wanted to do it.
Where is 'here'?
The debate in Cambridge.
I wasn't in the audience, though.
It would be good if you could give some views on it.
From my vantage point, which wasn't the best, the Tories/Kippers/Leavers in the audience weren't as loud/shouty/clappy as the centre left/Remain members.
Did we not do this nonsense just in 2015 ( where Yougov were miles out) ? I mean why are these people getting paid for this nonsense?
I should try to cultivate a stiffer upper lip if I were you. If Theresa May does suffer ill effects from not attending the debate, we may well see at least one poll with Labour ahead by the final weekend of the campaign.
It'll probably be YouGov.
Quite possibly. Or maybe ComRes, as they also seem to have been infiltrated by Momentum. :-)
Lots of people rubbishing Yougov but unable to say why it's rubbish.
I'm willing to accept their samples may be more politically engaged (hence the huge swings from a 24% Tory lead 6 weeks ago, to only 3% now) but they claim to have put in adjustments for that.
My assumption is it's the ex-lab, 2015 ukip, then brexit vote (that was blue a month ago) - which is boosting lab.
Any other theories?
Nah, it is the youngsters. And some of them really will show up. Just alot more pensioners will. I'm seriously wondering if May might break Major's 92 record.
The BBC asked polling company ComRes to pick audience that is representative of the country demographically and politically.
If we assume they managed it, and that, however bad those in the room thought Rudd did (she was no trainwreck though) some must still have supported her, they were awfully, awfully quiet in support.
Given how loud and aggressive Corbyn supporters are, they might just have stayed quiet.
My assumption is it's the ex-lab, 2015 ukip, then brexit vote (that was blue a month ago) - which is boosting lab.
Any other theories?
I can't see why anyone fitting that description would vote for Corbyn. I am one of them, maybe not representative though. I live in a very Ukip area and have never heard anyone say one good thing about Corbyn, he is a laughing stock. In fact the only time two of my mates have ever brought up politics was to say 'wtf is that new labour weirdo all about'
Not quite. Tory team here say Rudd wanted to do it.
Where is 'here'?
The debate in Cambridge.
I wasn't in the audience, though.
It would be good if you could give some views on it.
From my vantage point, which wasn't the best, the Tories/Kippers in the audience weren't as loud/shouty/clappy as the centre left members.
Thanks. That sort of matches my impression of the posting here. It meant the shouting match generally although I appreciate you may want to be more guarded on that.
The BBC asked polling company ComRes to pick audience that is representative of the country demographically and politically.
If we assume they managed it, and that, however bad those in the room thought Rudd did (she was no trainwreck though) some must still have supported her, they were awfully, awfully quiet in support.
The BBC asked polling company ComRes to pick audience that is representative of the country demographically and politically.
If we assume they managed it, and that, however bad those in the room thought Rudd did (she was no trainwreck though) some must still have supported her, they were awfully, awfully quiet in support.
Assuming they managed it. Do you think they did? Presumably they do it for the bbc all the time. Do you think the QT audiences are balanced? Do polling companies give clients what they want to hear? We should bear in mind that at that infamous bbc gathering of climate change activists that the bbc was what shall I say favourable towards slanting the news and indeed inventing it because the cause was considered too important.
Did we not do this nonsense just in 2015 ( where Yougov were miles out) ? I mean why are these people getting paid for this nonsense?
I should try to cultivate a stiffer upper lip if I were you. If Theresa May does suffer ill effects from not attending the debate, we may well see at least one poll with Labour ahead by the final weekend of the campaign.
It'll probably be YouGov.
Quite possibly. Or maybe ComRes, as they also seem to have been infiltrated by Momentum. :-)
I doubt it, Hawkins seems confident of a Tory majority.
@Casino_Royale It's because of YouGov's track record. Apparently, they even got IndyRef wrong!
The BBC asked polling company ComRes to pick audience that is representative of the country demographically and politically.
If we assume they managed it, and that, however bad those in the room thought Rudd did (she was no trainwreck though) some must still have supported her, they were awfully, awfully quiet in support.
Assuming they managed it. Do you think they did? Presumably they do it for the bbc all the time. Do you think the QT audiences are balanced? Do polling companies give clients what they want to hear? We should bear in mind that at that infamous bbc gathering of climate change activists that the bbc was what shall I say favourable towards slanting the news and indeed inventing it because the cause was considered too important.
I have no idea if they managed it. Nuttal got a few applause lines, and I don't think Rudd got a single one, which seems implausible, but if it was just the leftys being very loud, that might explain it.
Just a thought about YouGov and what are in some ways effectively tracker polls. Given that the same people are being polled over and over again, isn't it likely that those least interested in participating on their panel will become less and less likely to complete their polls over time? Leaving the hard core fighting it out?
Any problem you can think of for panels YouGov (and the others) will claim they have thought of, and know how to adjust for. We will see in 8 days time whether or not they are correct.
Think May's mistake is banging on and on about Brexit. Folk think that was settled last year. They've moved on to day to day life.
In a way it's the converse of Cameron's mistake.
He spent most of his time in office saying the EU was terrible and then came a cropper when he suddenly told people they should vote to remain, and now May, having told people that Brexit will easily be sewn up in two years at no cost, is having difficulty suddenly persuading them that the sky will fall in if she doesn't have a huge mandate.
All that happens if Corbyn is elected is that he'll be "found out" to be even worse than May (in the eyes of the electorate) in their wildest dreams, in less than 6 months.
But we could be stuck with him for 5 years, unless all the other parties no confidence him.
Which is unlikely, because the Tories would then take office again.
My assumption is it's the ex-lab, 2015 ukip, then brexit vote (that was blue a month ago) - which is boosting lab.
Any other theories?
Nah, it is the youngsters. And some of them really will show up. Just alot more pensioners will. I'm seriously wondering if May might break Major's 92 record.
I still suspect as the campaign goes on shy Tories who previously popped their heads above the parapet have gone into quiet head down silence.
The explanation for this is straightforward. Once you get into things, particularly around the Conservative manifesto launch the Conservatives start to look hard, harsh and giving feck all away, thus its socially less acceptable to say ' i get it, its harsh but its also reality'
Its a little bit of the old 'Tories' . The left, who often play this as if they are on a moral crusade, make it a morality issue, as if voting Conservative is somehow causing disabled children to be thrown of cliffs in midnight sacrifices by posh rich people wearing top hats, but it isn't, its democratic voting issue.
The average British bod just would rather not get into defending position
Sure, I always said from the get go back in April that there had to be a bit of soapy froth on the top end of the Conservative vote. There is, and they'll be, barring any mess ups at 43% and above on the day.
Labour, gut instinct suggests, are currently carrying froth on top.
Not quite. Tory team here say Rudd wanted to do it.
Where is 'here'?
The debate in Cambridge.
I wasn't in the audience, though.
It would be good if you could give some views on it.
From my vantage point, which wasn't the best, the Tories/Kippers/Leavers in the audience weren't as loud/shouty/clappy as the centre left/Remain members.
Tallies with what I saw on TV. About 1/3rd of the audience applauding wildly. It really isn't Momentum/Labour's fault if the remaining 2/3rds are not enthusiastic.
Either Theresa May or the Yougov board are going to survive this election
Even granted a Conservative win next week, I'd not go long Theresa May futures. Half the party will blame her for calling an unnecessary election in the first place, for screwing up the manifesto and then going missing for the duration. Tonight will have been the last straw.
My assumption is it's the ex-lab, 2015 ukip, then brexit vote (that was blue a month ago) - which is boosting lab.
Any other theories?
Nah, it is the youngsters. And some of them really will show up. Just alot more pensioners will. I'm seriously wondering if May might break Major's 92 record.
I'd reincarnate my grandmother to stop Corbyn.
Unless she's on the electoral register I'm not sure how that would help.
All that happens if Corbyn is elected is that he'll be "found out" to be even worse than May (in the eyes of the electorate) in their wildest dreams, in less than 6 months.
I will be surprised if it takes 6 months, I genuinely think we will see trouble in a matter of weeks.
What I want won't make a difference to the outcome. If May wins, she has to deliver Brexit, and the campaign she delivered suggests it will be a fuckup of biblical proportions.
I expected that in any case, but I didn't expect Tezza to screw up the prelims this badly
By being the only one to not turn up for the squabble, T May showing just how strong she is.
I did think this while watching the coverage on the 10pm News. It just looked like a bunch of political dwarves squabling among themselves, I had to switch over temporarily, the SNP twit was especially irritating. There is an argument that May is better off out - rise above it.
That's what the Cameroons said when Dave swerved the 2015 debate
And we need to remember that the snp twit was not the leader of the snp. Green leader and welsh nat leader were there
Doesn't this actually undermine their point? They should be showing a huge gap between Labour and Tory. In a way their own position doesn't particularly matter
That story is someone from the Tories claiming it would lead to those fees! Ignore!
The trouble is I really don't trust McDonnell. I'm very ill at ease to find out what he'd do.
If Labour had normal political figures in the main jobs, it'd be one thing. I'd take Ed Balls as Shadow Chancellor anyday over McMao.
hat thinks that way cannot be trusted.
Those are fair points, and as I said before I'll probably protest vote Green, in the end.
I seriously hope that Labour MPs would not entertain any crazy ideas by McDonnell and Corbyn. But I fear the threat of deselection may lead to some being pressured into voting for them if the worst happened.
Voting Green to evade the more crazy of Labour's policies is certainly a novel approach, I grant you.
Yes, I know. But they'll never get into power, and I'd like to vote for a left of centre party at this GE, ideally.
The LibDems under Farron are clearly left of centre, without Labour's crazy bits. Indeed in some areas, such as their tax policy, they are more redistributive (which used to be the key left/right differentiator) than Labour.
The LDs are WAY too Europhile for me. I was originally going to vote for them, but they've put me off gradually over the course of this campaign.
Very interesting you're a centrist and a bit of a eurosceptic, Apocalypse. I must confess I thought you were a very solid left-winger and very pro-EU.
I do hope we can do something to persuade you to lend us your vote this once over the next week or so.
I wouldn't call myself a centrist! I'm pro-EU overall but I don't think the EU is perfect by any means.
The LibDems are very strong supporters of EU reform, as is the ALDE group generally across Europe. That is what Tim was trying to communicate with his rather hamfisted self-reference as a Eurosceptic early in the campaign, which he should have been bright enough to foresee would be used against him. Strongly believing that our future should lie in closer relationships and pooled decision-making with our neighbours is not incompatible with dissatisfaction about the unaccountable way the EU currently operates.
@AmberRuddHR - an ex-stockbroker and descendant of Charles II. This is the elite that wants Britain to stay rigged
You're the one who wants to protect the inheritances of the rich. That's how societies stay rigged.
I think the Tories are pathetic and their campaign has proved this. There is nothing to May, as far as I can see. They don't deserve to win. I argued from last summer that if May was serious about helping making a better society then taxes would have to rise. I agree that the Me Me Me society needs to stop and have said as much repeatedly in thread headers and below the line.
But your party has - shamelessly - argued against tax rises such as the equalisation of NI rates in the budget and has made a big play of wanting to protect the inheritances of the rich. Your party wants those who don't go to university to pay for those who do. If you really wanted to changed a rigged society you would agree that rich people should use their assets for rainy days not expect others to pay so that their children can get an unfair advantage through inheritance windfalls. You ought to be on the side of those who are least well off. Those people - in case you are unclear - are not the middle aged children of those with substantial assets or those who go to university. They are fortunate and in a better position than many others.
And having economic policies that have repeatedly been proved not to work will harm the poorest, those you claim to care about. Compassion is not about emoting. It is about coming up with practical measures that will actually help the worst off not penalise them in pursuit of some mythical fairness or failed political ideology.
So the idea that Tories are uniquely evil and Labour on the side of fairness is so much phooey.
I detest Corbyn for his policies, his political judgment and his political character, based on everything he has said and done over years. The fact that he is personally polite and may indeed be charming (and people I know who have met him have attested to this and I trust their judgment) is irrelevant. I'm not voting for a friend but for a leader whom I can trust to be PM. I don't think he is a good leader and I don't think he will make a good PM. I think moral character matters - and not just in politicians - and have said so repeatedly.
I make no apologies about saying this. And I will continue to call out Labour hypocrisy when I see it.
They ought to be better than this and we ought to have a better choice. But a Hobson's choice it is.
So it's the Lib Dems for me, I'm afraid. Largely because I like Norman Lamb and my local councillor.
The BBC asked polling company ComRes to pick audience that is representative of the country demographically and politically.
If we assume they managed it, and that, however bad those in the room thought Rudd did (she was no trainwreck though) some must still have supported her, they were awfully, awfully quiet in support.
Given how loud and aggressive Corbyn supporters are, they might just have stayed quiet.
@tnewtondunn: Emily Thornberry refuses to rule out a rainbow coalition if Tories fail to get a majority: "I'm not dealing with hypotheticals" #Newsnight
@MichaelLCrick: How can politicians cop out of answering hypothetical questions? A general election is one huge hypothetical question
He talks about leadership taking advice but Jeremy Corbyn ignores the 172 of his own MPs who begged him to resign
Dr Lauren GavaghanVerified account @DancingTheMind 35m35 minutes ago Dr Lauren Gavaghan Retweeted Jeremy Hunt *54,000* NHS #juniordoctors begged you to resign Mr Jeremy Hunt.
This headline reveals all. Without even watching the debate I can gather from this that Corbyn 'won' and outperformed expectations. A desperate headline from the mail, trying to change the narrative. A floundering campaign from the tories.
They will still win a majority of 50-80 I think, people will still trust May as PM material more than Corbyn, especially for Brexit negotiations. But landslide seems unlikely now. it seems like the IRA stuff hasn't cut through with enough people, and the initial Tory plan of giving Labour enough rope to hang temselves has failed as Corbyn has run a largely fuckup-free campaign.
This headline reveals all. Without even watching the debate I can gather from this that Corbyn 'won' and outperformed expectations. A desperate headline from the mail, trying to change the narrative. A floundering campaign from the tories.
They will still win a majority of 50-80 I think, people will still trust May as PM material more than Corbyn, especially for Brexit negotiations. But landslide seems unlikely now. it seems like the IRA stuff hasn't cut through with enough people, and the initial Tory plan of giving Labour enough rope to hang temselves has failed as Corbyn has run a largely fuckup-free campaign.
That story is someone from the Tories claiming it would lead to those fees! Ignore!
The trouble is I really don't trust McDonnell. I'm very ill at ease to find out what he'd do.
If Labour had normal political figures in the main jobs, it'd be one thing. I'd take Ed Balls as Shadow Chancellor anyday over McMao.
hat thinks that way cannot be trusted.
Those are fair points, and as I said before I'll probably protest vote Green, in the end.
I seriously hope that Labour MPs would not entertain any crazy ideas by McDonnell and Corbyn. But I fear the threat of deselection may lead to some being pressured into voting for them if the worst happened.
Voting Green to evade the more crazy of Labour's policies is certainly a novel approach, I grant you.
Yes, I know. But they'll never get into power, and I'd like to vote for a left of centre party at this GE, ideally.
The LibDems under Farron are clearly left of centre, without Labour's crazy bits. Indeed in some areas, such as their tax policy, they are more redistributive (which used to be the key left/right differentiator) than Labour.
The LDs are WAY too Europhile for me. I
Very interesting you're a centrist and a bit of a eurosceptic, Apocalypse. I must confess I thought you were a very solid left-winger and very pro-EU.
I do hope we can do something to persuade you to lend us your vote this once over the next week or so.
I wouldn't call myself a centrist! I'm pro-EU overall but I don't think the EU is perfect by any means.
The LibDems are very strong supporters of EU reform, as is the ALDE group generally across Europe. That is what Tim was trying to communicate with his rather hamfisted self-reference as a Eurosceptic early in the campaign, which he should have been bright enough to foresee would be used against him. Strongly believing that our future should lie in closer relationships and pooled decision-making with our neighbours is not incompatible with dissatisfaction about the unaccountable way the EU currently operates.
Hmmm. I'll consider voting LD.
If you are in England and want a caring internationalist society with sane finances then there is no alternative.
My assumption is it's the ex-lab, 2015 ukip, then brexit vote (that was blue a month ago) - which is boosting lab.
Any other theories?
I can't see why anyone fitting that description would vote for Corbyn. I am one of them, maybe not representative though. I live in a very Ukip area and have never heard anyone say one good thing about Corbyn, he is a laughing stock. In fact the only time two of my mates have ever brought up politics was to say 'wtf is that new labour weirdo all about'
I live in Nottingham North, which is overwhelmingly WWC and had an 18.5% UKIP vote in 2015. My ward (Bulwell) voted more than 2-1 to leave. I've helped in several canvasses and it seems quite solidly Labour now - quite a few voters say they went UKIP last time but want to get the Tories out.
The general population is far less "twitterised" than many of the opinion formers assume and let's be honest, if you are accessing a political betting website at 10pm in the evening, you are not normal, myself included.
For all the twitter and social media frenzy of JC's supporters, the "silent majority" are likely to go with May, and in a big way.
"Twitter isn't Britain" as a former Conservative PM once memorably said (he also said "too many tweets make a twat" in one of his funnier comments). However, Twitter has a certain centre of gravity, and its influence does radiate outwards.
However, I agree with the 'silent majority' analysis. The months of 'Corbyn can't be trusted' messaging will pay off the Conservatives in the polling booth. In the end, people are fed up with Brexit, the right-wing media still have enormous power, and - rather like the decade after the Berlin Wall fell - the Conservatives are still the only political superpower.
It was fun while it lasted, and Labour have made fantastic progress recruiting the next generation, but we're going to get a 50 seat Tory majority, and a Conservative hard Brexit. Hunker down...
@seanjonesqc: The Govt: 1. EU will definitely give us a deal tht leaves us no worse off; 2. If we don't get the negotiations right it will be catastrophic
He talks about leadership taking advice but Jeremy Corbyn ignores the 172 of his own MPs who begged him to resign
Dr Lauren GavaghanVerified account @DancingTheMind 35m35 minutes ago Dr Lauren Gavaghan Retweeted Jeremy Hunt *54,000* NHS #juniordoctors begged you to resign Mr Jeremy Hunt.
He's a government minister, it isn't his job to please people. Now, it might well be he does a crap job and should go for that (I have little idea, certainly the NHS seems no better than when he started), but that doctors, even that many of them, begged him to resign is not in itself reason he should. Government ministers are begged to resign even if they do a good job, if that good job pisses people off.
Comments
Replying to @georgeeaton
The BBC asked polling company ComRes to pick audience that is representative of the country demographically and politically.
And does all this not totally discredit the panel system?
AIUI we have more polls now because the new methodologies make it cheaper. But are these methods undermining the randomness which again AIUI are vital to make the polling accurate.
I am not fully conversant with this YG model (which i saw the bbc call 'a poll') but its spreads seem particularly wide. And so meaningless. Is it just feeding the beast what it wants on the name of publicity?
https://twitter.com/labournorth?lang=en
https://twitter.com/LabourNorthWest?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
https://twitter.com/WMLabour?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
West Midlands looks sensible enough for Labour - Erdington, Selly Oak, Coventry and Leamington Spa (last one probably out of their reach).
North West looks slightly odd - her own seat (threat?), Wirral West (makes sense), Ellesmere Port (ditto), Weaver Vale (ditto) but then seats like Leigh and Wallasey, which you would have thought were safe Labour.
But the North East does look like a weird selection - yes, seats like Darlington and Bishop Auckland (and Redcar) which make sense but then visits to seats like NW Durham, Easington a and Blaydon, which should all be safe Labour. Why would you do that with such a short amount of time left?
I am sure Labour activists will tell me this is normal but it seems odd to send one of your stars to seats like these if you were seeing the surge in support some of the polls are reporting.
Any other theories?
I'm willing to accept their samples may be more politically engaged (hence the huge swings from a 24% Tory lead 6 weeks ago, to only 3% now) but they claim to have put in adjustments for that.
Just like ICM.
Sluggish Britain falls to bottom of growth table
More good news in Tory Britain
Credit Card debt £68 bn highest ever
More good news in Tory
Food inflation at levels not seen for 3 years
Thank God we have the economically competent Tories in charge
Here we go again....
blockquote class="Quote" rel="TheWhiteRabbit"> She has a full time job.
And winning elections is something the Tories have practised, and been good at.
Buckle up!
Do polling companies give clients what they want to hear?
We should bear in mind that at that infamous bbc gathering of climate change activists that the bbc was what shall I say favourable towards slanting the news and indeed inventing it because the cause was considered too important.
Not enough IMO to stop TMICIPM with an increased Majority
@Casino_Royale It's because of YouGov's track record. Apparently, they even got IndyRef wrong!
He spent most of his time in office saying the EU was terrible and then came a cropper when he suddenly told people they should vote to remain, and now May, having told people that Brexit will easily be sewn up in two years at no cost, is having difficulty suddenly persuading them that the sky will fall in if she doesn't have a huge mandate.
But we could be stuck with him for 5 years, unless all the other parties no confidence him.
Which is unlikely, because the Tories would then take office again.
What the actual.
The explanation for this is straightforward. Once you get into things, particularly around the Conservative manifesto launch the Conservatives start to look hard, harsh and giving feck all away, thus its socially less acceptable to say ' i get it, its harsh but its also reality'
Its a little bit of the old 'Tories' . The left, who often play this as if they are on a moral crusade, make it a morality issue, as if voting Conservative is somehow causing disabled children to be thrown of cliffs in midnight sacrifices by posh rich people wearing top hats, but it isn't, its democratic voting issue.
The average British bod just would rather not get into defending position
Sure, I always said from the get go back in April that there had to be a bit of soapy froth on the top end of the Conservative vote. There is, and they'll be, barring any mess ups at 43% and above on the day.
Labour, gut instinct suggests, are currently carrying froth on top.
I expected that in any case, but I didn't expect Tezza to screw up the prelims this badly
But yes, more polls!
I seem to recall hearing of one, but not sure whether it was a serious comment or not.
Reds: Labour 39%, Corbyn as best PM 30% (difference of 9%)
Blues: Conservatives 42%, May as best PM 43% (difference of 1%)
Why?
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/870033274189615104
I think the Tories are pathetic and their campaign has proved this. There is nothing to May, as far as I can see. They don't deserve to win. I argued from last summer that if May was serious about helping making a better society then taxes would have to rise. I agree that the Me Me Me society needs to stop and have said as much repeatedly in thread headers and below the line.
But your party has - shamelessly - argued against tax rises such as the equalisation of NI rates in the budget and has made a big play of wanting to protect the inheritances of the rich. Your party wants those who don't go to university to pay for those who do. If you really wanted to changed a rigged society you would agree that rich people should use their assets for rainy days not expect others to pay so that their children can get an unfair advantage through inheritance windfalls. You ought to be on the side of those who are least well off. Those people - in case you are unclear - are not the middle aged children of those with substantial assets or those who go to university. They are fortunate and in a better position than many others.
And having economic policies that have repeatedly been proved not to work will harm the poorest, those you claim to care about. Compassion is not about emoting. It is about coming up with practical measures that will actually help the worst off not penalise them in pursuit of some mythical fairness or failed political ideology.
So the idea that Tories are uniquely evil and Labour on the side of fairness is so much phooey.
I detest Corbyn for his policies, his political judgment and his political character, based on everything he has said and done over years. The fact that he is personally polite and may indeed be charming (and people I know who have met him have attested to this and I trust their judgment) is irrelevant. I'm not voting for a friend but for a leader whom I can trust to be PM. I don't think he is a good leader and I don't think he will make a good PM. I think moral character matters - and not just in politicians - and have said so repeatedly.
I make no apologies about saying this. And I will continue to call out Labour hypocrisy when I see it.
They ought to be better than this and we ought to have a better choice. But a Hobson's choice it is.
So it's the Lib Dems for me, I'm afraid. Largely because I like Norman Lamb and my local councillor.
@MichaelLCrick: How can politicians cop out of answering hypothetical questions? A general election is one huge hypothetical question
Looks like Tories doing a 20 most marginal de-fence, and attacking the 40 most marginal Labour seats to me. A 20:40 strategy*.
It was probably 0:80* six weeks ago, but times have changed.
(*assumes sane people like Messina and Crosby have full control)
@Jeremy_Hunt
He talks about leadership taking advice but Jeremy Corbyn ignores the 172 of his own MPs who begged him to resign
Dr Lauren GavaghanVerified account @DancingTheMind 35m35 minutes ago
Dr Lauren Gavaghan Retweeted Jeremy Hunt
*54,000* NHS #juniordoctors begged you to resign Mr Jeremy Hunt.
They will still win a majority of 50-80 I think, people will still trust May as PM material more than Corbyn, especially for Brexit negotiations. But landslide seems unlikely now. it seems like the IRA stuff hasn't cut through with enough people, and the initial Tory plan of giving Labour enough rope to hang temselves has failed as Corbyn has run a largely fuckup-free campaign.
They will still win a majority of 50-80 I think, people will still trust May as PM material more than Corbyn, especially for Brexit negotiations. But landslide seems unlikely now. it seems like the IRA stuff hasn't cut through with enough people, and the initial Tory plan of giving Labour enough rope to hang temselves has failed as Corbyn has run a largely fuckup-free campaign.
However, I agree with the 'silent majority' analysis. The months of 'Corbyn can't be trusted' messaging will pay off the Conservatives in the polling booth. In the end, people are fed up with Brexit, the right-wing media still have enormous power, and - rather like the decade after the Berlin Wall fell - the Conservatives are still the only political superpower.
It was fun while it lasted, and Labour have made fantastic progress recruiting the next generation, but we're going to get a 50 seat Tory majority, and a Conservative hard Brexit. Hunker down...
1. EU will definitely give us a deal tht leaves us no worse off;
2. If we don't get the negotiations right it will be catastrophic
So you're not voting for Corbyn then?