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    hoveitehoveite Posts: 43
    kle4 said:

    hoveite said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    As far as I can tell the Labour manifesto doesn't give the details of how the tax would be levied.

    But the phrase "land value tax" wasn't coined in the Labour manifesto. And "land value tax" is generally understood to be a form of wealth tax - and wealth taxes are levied on the owners of assets not the users.

    My point was that calling council tax a land value tax is misleading as it is paid by occupiers.

    We will initiate a review into reforming council tax and business rates and consider new options such as a land value tax, to ensure local government has sustainable funding for the long term

    Not much in that, unless there's more hidden away-seems like the detail is from 'Labour blueprint for the tax from 2015' according to the story?

    I do like how the story refers to as 'small print', a phrase designed to make us suspicious.
    Economists certainly favour a land value tax. Unfortunately there are more home owners than economists.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Tories will get more votes by mentioning that 'Garden Tax' than this IRA stuff.

    Surely countered by the Tories stealing if from people with dementia stuff?
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    My mind is made up.

    I could have swung one of three ways, but ultimately I can't condone either the tories or labour leaderships and manifestos.

    I'm going to be voting for Tim (not a sin).

    Wow, that's two votes the LDs have got, Pong! Both are for different reasons, I'm sure, but it's two more than some thought they might get.
    Yeah.

    The frustrating thing is this was the IDEAL election for the Lib dems.

    They had the chance to present themselves as a serious and competent alternative government, pursuing a super-soft brexit. They could have got ~40%.

    Sadly, Tim (not a sin) ain't no Trudeau.
    IDK, maybe Farron also has a rocking set of abs (I am given to understand).

    I think 40 is pushing it, but I thought they could at least push toward 20 seats if things went well. Now 5 is more likely than that.

    I'm still undecided on that front. I like enough of the Tory pitch, in terms of I think it realistic, and dislike Corbyn enough to the point I should vote for them, but May is not very good. Farron isn't good either, but there are some decent LD ideas, and I feel bad for them and want third parties to do well and know the local candidate. As it doesn't matter in a safe seat its about going with my gut, and usually I'd consider local effort, but there's been nothing so far from anyone (LDs probably off fighting in Bath anyway), but my gut is uncertain.
    I think the proposal of a cap has somewhat detoxified the dementia tax issue.

    After all a cap was what was proposed under the coalition.

    Anyway, I'll find a pdf of Labour's manifesto to see whether this Garden tax stuff is true.
    It just says there will be a review into reforming council tax and consider options such as a land value tax - the drama of the detail seems to come from an old 'blueprint' of how such an option would work.
    My family lives in a house with a garden. Will I be trusting John McDonnell on this issue? No.

    This is worse than the Tories social care policy (which I opposed).

    My parents aren't rich and don't deserve to see their council tax potentially treble which according to the Telegraph could happen.

    I knew I wasn't voting Labour, but I live in a marginal and this potential tax makes me re-think about where my vote could go.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What will the Sun and Mail run with - Labour garden tax bombshell or Corbyn Falklands gaffe :p ?

    Hmm

    Corbyn: Wouldn't defend Falkland Gardens, happy to take yours!
    Cornyn loves gardens loves gardeners. What next Sun says Cornyn wants a tax on jam making
    Only on non-organic jam - to give his an advantage in the markets!
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    How do you stop landlords passing it on to their tenants through increased rent?
    Rent caps? ;-)
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    Hmm wonder if a land tax value charge would send liveries up...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Tories will get more votes by mentioning that 'Garden Tax' than this IRA stuff.

    Surely countered by the Tories stealing if from people with dementia stuff?
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    My mind is made up.

    I could have swung one of three ways, but ultimately I can't condone either the tories or labour leaderships and manifestos.

    I'm going to be voting for Tim (not a sin).

    Wow, that's two votes the LDs have got, Pong! Both are for different reasons, I'm sure, but it's two more than some thought they might get.
    Yeah.

    The frustrating thing is this was the IDEAL election for the Lib dems.

    They had the chance to present themselves as a serious and competent alternative government, pursuing a super-soft brexit. They could have got ~40%.

    Sadly, Tim (not a sin) ain't no Trudeau.
    IDK, maybe Farron also has a rocking set of abs (I am given to understand).

    I think 40 is pushing it, but I thought they could at least push toward 20 seats if things went well. Now 5 is more likely than that.

    I'm still undecided on that front. I like enough of the Tory pitch, in terms of I think it realistic, and dislike Corbyn enough to the point I should vote for them, but May is not very good. Farron isn't good either, but there are some decent LD ideas, and I feel bad for them and want third parties to do well and know the local candidate. As it doesn't matter in a safe seat its about going with my gut, and usually I'd consider local effort, but there's been nothing so far from anyone (LDs probably off fighting in Bath anyway), but my gut is uncertain.
    I think the proposal of a cap has somewhat detoxified the dementia tax issue.

    After all a cap was what was proposed under the coalition.

    Anyway, I'll find a pdf of Labour's manifesto to see whether this Garden tax stuff is true.
    It just says there will be a review into reforming council tax and consider options such as a land value tax - the drama of the detail seems to come from an old 'blueprint' of how such an option would work.
    My family lives in a house with a garden. Will I be trusting John McDonnell on this issue? No.

    This is worse than the Tories social care policy (which I opposed).

    My parents aren't rich and don't deserve to see their council tax potentially treble which according to the Telegraph could happen.

    I knew I wasn't voting Labour, but I live in a marginal and this potential tax makes me re-think about where my vote could go.
    Blimey!!
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    edited May 2017
    The Garden Tax could be Labour's Dementia Tax. Misleading, but highly effective. Those Sun and Mail headline writers must be drooling over this. And a week before the election. Landslide back on?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    Looking at the section which mentions the Garden Tax (for such we must now inevitable refer to it) I remember the bit on the same page highlighting the cuts to youth services and closure of hundreds of youth centres (it's been cut to pieces round here), which it cleverly says it will 'end the cuts' to, but doesn't say they will reverse the cuts.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    edited May 2017
    Jason said:

    The Garden Tax could be Labour's Dementia Tax. Misleading, but highly effective. Those Sun and Mail headline writers must be drooling over this. And a week before the election. Landslide back on?

    Whatever the final result was, it probably was always going to be in all honesty. Particularly if it fits one of those highly r^2 models based off leadership, LEs, BEs or a combination thereof.
    Those are all bad for Labour in case you're wondering - 16 - 19% lead for Tories.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,220
    Pulpstar said:

    What will the Sun and Mail run with - Labour garden tax bombshell or Corbyn Falklands gaffe :p ?

    "Labour will give your gardens to the Argies!"
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    kle4 said:

    Looking at the section which mentions the Garden Tax (for such we must now inevitable refer to it) I remember the bit on the same page highlighting the cuts to youth services and closure of hundreds of youth centres (it's been cut to pieces round here), which it cleverly says it will 'end the cuts' to, but doesn't say they will reverse the cuts.

    They've decided a £10bn bung to middle class students is more important than reversing cuts.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    Safe to say neither leader will be tripped up by Dimbleby?
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/869326793169412097

    Come on you lib dems,tell us what you really think of Tim ;-)
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Looking at the section which mentions the Garden Tax (for such we must now inevitable refer to it) I remember the bit on the same page highlighting the cuts to youth services and closure of hundreds of youth centres (it's been cut to pieces round here), which it cleverly says it will 'end the cuts' to, but doesn't say they will reverse the cuts.

    They've decided a £10bn bung to middle class students is more important than reversing cuts.
    Electorally, makes perfect sense - it's not like the Tories are going to say 'Labour won't reverse our cruel policy on youth services!'
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    kle4 said:

    Safe to say neither leader will be tripped up by Dimbleby?

    Should have retired a decade ago.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,758

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    How do you stop landlords passing it on to their tenants through increased rent?
    Landlords will charge whatever the market will bear, regardless of their own costs. Although I like some of the arguments for LVT, it seems to me to be a substitution for the simpler and more logical solution of nationalising all land. People rent land as a common good and make their decisions about whether they can improve it enough at a low enough cost to make a profit from the rent. When you put it that way you can see why land nationalisation and Land Value Tax as a substitute for never gets outside the discussion stage. There are very powerful land owners who would see their portfolios reduced to nothing.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    kle4 said:

    Safe to say neither leader will be tripped up by Dimbleby?

    Well, he's only moderating.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    How do you stop landlords passing it on to their tenants through increased rent?
    Rent caps? ;-)
    If you don't mind crashing the housing market (which is by no means necessarily a bad thing).
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Safe to say neither leader will be tripped up by Dimbleby?

    Well, he's only moderating.
    Ah, was forgetting the details.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,845
    edited May 2017
    kle4 said:

    Safe to say neither leader will be tripped up by Dimbleby?

    Well you say that but it was on QT where Cameron was compared to Neville Chamberlain so you never know...


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAH87qyfEDE
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    edited May 2017

    https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/869326793169412097

    Come on you lib dems,tell us what you really think of Tim ;-)

    Clegg would not have been pushed out like Fishfinger has. Neither would have Lamb. In fact, no other Lib Dem MP would have.

    I think there is one thing can unite both Tories and Corbynistas here tonight - LET'S ALL LAUGH AT THE LIMP DIMS!!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942


    I knew I wasn't voting Labour, but I live in a marginal and this potential tax makes me re-think about where my vote could go.

    Be under no illusions, your parents taxes are going up by a country mile if Labour get in. Particularly THIS lot. McDonnell is literally a marxist.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm wonder if a land tax value charge would send liveries up...

    Depends whether it complements or supersedes commercial rates, I assume.
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Garden Tax going viral!!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Jason said:

    Garden Tax going viral!!

    Someone's made it in to CCHQ? :p
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited May 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Safe to say neither leader will be tripped up by Dimbleby?

    Well you say that but it was on QT where Cameron was compared to Neville Chamberlain so you never know...


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAH87qyfEDE
    A video that serves to remind us how much better DC was at TV than Mother May. I don't know why I'm so nostalgic for DC, I wasn't much of a fan, but during this campaign I've missed him. Must remember to get a life.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Y0kel said:

    Prediction.

    Conservative 43% or higher
    Labour 33% or lower.

    Hey, Y0Kel! Don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate PB Tories will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx! WVAP! Fry half a Labour majority with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, phased plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks... Election flyers...
    You'd better just start dealing with it, Sunil! Listen to me! Sunil! Just deal with it because we need you and I'm sick of your bullshit.
    How do I get out of this chickenshit outfit?
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,220
    Pulpstar said:


    I knew I wasn't voting Labour, but I live in a marginal and this potential tax makes me re-think about where my vote could go.

    Be under no illusions, your parents taxes are going up by a country mile if Labour get in. Particularly THIS lot. McDonnell is literally a marxist.
    Everyone's taxes are going up, whoever gets in. But they will go up a lot more if Labour gets in.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    Jason said:

    Garden Tax going viral!!

    At midnight?! What's wrong with people, it can go viral in the morning!
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,845
    edited May 2017

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Safe to say neither leader will be tripped up by Dimbleby?

    Well you say that but it was on QT where Cameron was compared to Neville Chamberlain so you never know...


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAH87qyfEDE
    A video that serves to remind us how much better DC was at TV than Mother May. I don't know why I'm so nostalgic for DC, I wasn't much of a fan.
    He did make a passionate defense... But his expression while he was being lambasted was of a man who know's he's finished...

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    RobD said:

    Jason said:

    Garden Tax going viral!!

    Someone's made it in to CCHQ? :p
    Hi CCHQ - Nick Timothy has threatened to wreck a good few betting books so we'd appreciate if you could sort it :)
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Safe to say neither leader will be tripped up by Dimbleby?

    Well you say that but it was on QT where Cameron was compared to Neville Chamberlain so you never know...


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAH87qyfEDE
    Didn't Tony Blair get caught out or embarrassed on General election QT
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    PREDICTION

    Seats
    Conservatives 350 (+19)
    Labour 221 (-10)
    SNP 47 (-9)
    Lib Dems 10 (+2)
    Others 22 (-2)
    TORY MAJORITY 50

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 43% +6%
    Labour 33% +3%
    Lib Dems 11% +3%
    UKIP 3% -9%



    TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (18)
    Halifax, Wirral West, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Clwyd South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North, Great Grimsby

    TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
    Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

    TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
    Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

    TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
    Clacton


    LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (4)
    Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian

    LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
    Leeds North West

    LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
    Brighton Pavilion


    LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
    Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

    LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (2)
    East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West
    Bristol NW has a majority of nearly 10%.

    You'd be better replacing it with Croydon Central.

    Nor will Labour gain Bury North if there is a swing to the Conservatives in northern England.

    I've had a strong feeling about Bristol NW for a while. It was VERY pro-Remain (I think either that or Bath was the most Remain Tory seat outside of London), and there is some demographic change going on there, albeit not as fast demographic change as a true "inner city" seat.

    Bury North is a bit more of a stretch, but Labour's results in the Greater Manchester mayoral election really were RIP-ROARINGLY good -- I'm not sure all of that was a personal vote for Burnham.
    As you've got no Conservative gain in London you must have a pro-Labour swing there - in which case Croydon Central is a very likely Labour gain.

    There's a significant UKIP vote in Bristol NW and the Conservatives did win the Mayoral elections there last month. Still its a 14/1 shot on Betfair if you fancy it.

    Bury North again has a big UKIP vote and its on the edge of the conurbation, in many ways its more of a Lancashire constituency than that of Greater Manchester.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,845

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Safe to say neither leader will be tripped up by Dimbleby?

    Well you say that but it was on QT where Cameron was compared to Neville Chamberlain so you never know...


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAH87qyfEDE
    Didn't Tony Blair get caught out or embarrassed on General election QT
    In 2005, yes. I actually though Tone looked ill on that programe... He was pasty, puffy, sweaty.

    He looked quite unwell...
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,362
    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What will the Sun and Mail run with - Labour garden tax bombshell or Corbyn Falklands gaffe :p ?

    "Labour will give your gardens to the Argies!"
    Forklands. Handles for Forks.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Pulpstar said:


    I knew I wasn't voting Labour, but I live in a marginal and this potential tax makes me re-think about where my vote could go.

    Be under no illusions, your parents taxes are going up by a country mile if Labour get in. Particularly THIS lot. McDonnell is literally a marxist.
    For the first time, I'm actually very scared about a potential government and these polls 'closing' the gap are freaking me out. A potential May governmenthas made me feel miserable, Corbyn government is making me scared as hell. Miserable >>>>> scared any day of the week.

    Tell me that there's no chance that they are getting in. I had a feeling that they (McDonnell in particular) regard anyone with a mortgage as basically the 'elite' and 'rich', but this confirms it. They are being vague for a reason.

    Labour needs to be rid of anyone who calls themselves a 'Marxist' and have someone sane in there. And Corbynistas on Twitter keep on telling people 'don't worry they'll only tax people over 80k'.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    edited May 2017
    PClipp said:


    Mr Ears seems to have a very good understanding of SVT, if I may say so without appearing to condescend. It is a tax on the value of the land, as if it had not been developed. It makes no difference if you have one house built on it, no houses, or ten houses.

    The moral case is that you yourself have not increased the value of the land (in all probability), instead its increase arises from the infrastructure that has been put in round it, such as road access and drainage, and the increased value placed upon it by the granting of planning permission - by the local council on behalf of society.

    This is why it's always easy to park in Tokyo. If you have some land that's vacant, even for a short time between construction projects, you call a company that will manage it as a car park for you and make you enough to pay the taxes on it.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    Pulpstar said:


    I knew I wasn't voting Labour, but I live in a marginal and this potential tax makes me re-think about where my vote could go.

    Be under no illusions, your parents taxes are going up by a country mile if Labour get in. Particularly THIS lot. McDonnell is literally a marxist.
    For the first time, I'm actually very scared about a potential government and these polls 'closing' the gap are freaking me out. A potential May governmenthas made me feel miserable, Corbyn government is making me scared as hell. Miserable >>>>> scared any day of the week.

    Tell me that there's no chance that they are getting in. I had a feeling that they (McDonnell in particular) regard anyone with a mortgage as basically the 'elite' and 'rich', but this confirms it. They are being vague for a reason.

    Labour needs to be rid of anyone who calls themselves a 'Marxist' and have someone sane in there. And Corbynistas on Twitter keep on telling people 'don't worry they'll only tax people over 80k'.
    Have a valium. The Tories will win - it's just a case of how big a majority. That's what the wobble's about.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897

    Pulpstar said:


    I knew I wasn't voting Labour, but I live in a marginal and this potential tax makes me re-think about where my vote could go.

    Be under no illusions, your parents taxes are going up by a country mile if Labour get in. Particularly THIS lot. McDonnell is literally a marxist.
    For the first time, I'm actually very scared about a potential government and these polls 'closing' the gap are freaking me out. A potential May governmenthas made me feel miserable, Corbyn government is making me scared as hell. Miserable >>>>> scared any day of the week.

    Tell me that there's no chance that they are getting in. I had a feeling that they (McDonnell in particular) regard anyone with a mortgage as basically the 'elite' and 'rich', but this confirms it. They are being vague for a reason.

    Labour needs to be rid of anyone who calls themselves a 'Marxist' and have someone sane in there. And Corbynistas on Twitter keep on telling people 'don't worry they'll only tax people over 80k'.
    Let us know what your mum thinks of the policy.

    As for if there is a chance they could get in...not no chance. Technically. But to even get to Lab plurality would require an awful lot.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited May 2017
    Cyclefree said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I knew I wasn't voting Labour, but I live in a marginal and this potential tax makes me re-think about where my vote could go.

    Be under no illusions, your parents taxes are going up by a country mile if Labour get in. Particularly THIS lot. McDonnell is literally a marxist.
    Everyone's taxes are going up, whoever gets in. But they will go up a lot more if Labour gets in.
    There's a difference between moderate/reasonable taxes rises based on the incoming hard decisions, and taxes based on class envy and seeing anyone who earns over 25k as 'rich.'
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Safe to say neither leader will be tripped up by Dimbleby?

    Well you say that but it was on QT where Cameron was compared to Neville Chamberlain so you never know...


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAH87qyfEDE
    Didn't Tony Blair get caught out or embarrassed on General election QT
    In 2005, yes. I actually though Tone looked ill on that programe... He was pasty, puffy, sweaty.

    He looked quite unwell...
    Imagine the bad luck if you got a virus or really bad cold during a campaign, ugh, terrible. And with all that handshaking and everything.

    Probably best to avoid voters.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited May 2017


    Tell me that there's no chance that they are getting in. I had a feeling that they (McDonnell in particular) regard anyone with a mortgage as basically the 'elite' and 'rich', but this confirms it. They are being vague for a reason.

    Well, surely that's to be expected, no? They're hard-left socialists, aiming to nationalise a pile of things and drastically increase government spending in any number of expensive areas. Inevitably the rich aren't going to fund that, there aren't enough of them and their wealth is too mobile - it's going to come from the middle classes, and of course from huge borrowing.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:


    I knew I wasn't voting Labour, but I live in a marginal and this potential tax makes me re-think about where my vote could go.

    Be under no illusions, your parents taxes are going up by a country mile if Labour get in. Particularly THIS lot. McDonnell is literally a marxist.
    For the first time, I'm actually very scared about a potential government and these polls 'closing' the gap are freaking me out. A potential May governmenthas made me feel miserable, Corbyn government is making me scared as hell. Miserable >>>>> scared any day of the week.

    Tell me that there's no chance that they are getting in. I had a feeling that they (McDonnell in particular) regard anyone with a mortgage as basically the 'elite' and 'rich', but this confirms it. They are being vague for a reason.

    Labour needs to be rid of anyone who calls themselves a 'Marxist' and have someone sane in there. And Corbynistas on Twitter keep on telling people 'don't worry they'll only tax people over 80k'.
    Let us know what your mum thinks of the policy.

    As for if there is a chance they could get in...not no chance. Technically. But to even get to Lab plurality would require an awful lot.
    I'll ask her tomorrow.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    How do you stop landlords passing it on to their tenants through increased rent?
    I've got no idea about labours plans, but on LVT - I think the theory is, once land/property loses its (mostly) tax free status, prices/values will come down - significantly - and the yield investors/landlords get will readjust.

    Rough figures;

    Current property value= 400k.
    0% tax = -£0k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -£8k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >£8k/year or £625 PCM

    After LVT value = 100K.
    5% tax = -5k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -2k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >7K/year or £563 PCM
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Danny565 said:

    Time to stick my neck on the line....

    PREDICTION

    Seats
    Conservatives 350 (+19)
    Labour 221 (-10)
    SNP 47 (-9)
    Lib Dems 10 (+2)
    Others 22 (-2)
    TORY MAJORITY 50

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 43% +6%
    Labour 33% +3%
    Lib Dems 10% +2%
    UKIP 3% -9%

    My hunch is that if the Tory lead is 10%, their majority will be closer to 100 than 50.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    How do you stop landlords passing it on to their tenants through increased rent?
    I've got no idea about labours plans, but on LVT - I think the theory is, once land/property loses its (mostly) tax free status, prices/values will come down - significantly - and the yield investors/landlords get will readjust.

    Rough figures;

    Current property value= 400k.
    0% tax = -£0k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -£8k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >£8k/year or £625 PCM

    After LVT value = 100K.
    5% tax = -5k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -2k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >7K/year or £563 PCM
    It's not my preferred policy, but I can see how it would deliver lots of long term benefits (as well as short term pain) for the economy. The idea that tenants would *obviously* have the costs passed onto them is incorrect though.

    Values would readjust downwards.

    Significantly.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited May 2017
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Safe to say neither leader will be tripped up by Dimbleby?

    Well you say that but it was on QT where Cameron was compared to Neville Chamberlain so you never know...


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAH87qyfEDE
    Didn't Tony Blair get caught out or embarrassed on General election QT
    In 2005, yes. I actually though Tone looked ill on that programe... He was pasty, puffy, sweaty.

    He looked quite unwell...
    Imagine the bad luck if you got a virus or really bad cold during a campaign, ugh, terrible. And with all that handshaking and everything.

    Probably best to avoid voters.
    Fears over a candidate's health/vitality is always big in the US, if you remember Hillary having to be propped up into the back of a car. West Wing fans will remember this:

    http://connielane.smugmug.com/Other/West-Wing/i-6W6XGPZ/0/O/713-canthugdonna.gif
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,101
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    How do you stop landlords passing it on to their tenants through increased rent?
    I've got no idea about labours plans, but on LVT - I think the theory is, once land/property loses its (mostly) tax free status, prices/values will come down - significantly - and the yield investors/landlords get will readjust.

    Rough figures;

    Current property value= 400k.
    0% tax = -£0k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -£8k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >£8k/year or £625 PCM

    After LVT value = 100K.
    5% tax = -5k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -2k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >7K/year or £563 PCM
    It's not my preferred policy, but I can see how it would deliver lots of long term benefits (and short term pain) for the economy. The idea that tenants would *obviously* have the costs passed onto them is incorrect though.

    Values would readjust.

    Significantly.
    The resulting crash would provide a pretext for nationalising the banks too so it's win-win from the Shadow Chancellor's perspective.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Time to stick my neck on the line....

    PREDICTION

    Seats
    Conservatives 350 (+19)
    Labour 221 (-10)
    SNP 47 (-9)
    Lib Dems 10 (+2)
    Others 22 (-2)
    TORY MAJORITY 50

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 43% +6%
    Labour 33% +3%
    Lib Dems 10% +2%
    UKIP 3% -9%

    My hunch is that if the Tory lead is 10%, their majority will be closer to 100 than 50.
    I don't think that necessarily follows anymore.

    The recent polls have suggested that Labour's rise in voteshare has been disproportionately concentrated in the North, Wales and to some extent in the Midlands (i.e. where their previously vulnerable seats largely are), while being more stable in the South, London and Scotland -- thus making for a more "efficient" Labour vote distribution.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Time to stick my neck on the line....

    PREDICTION

    Seats
    Conservatives 350 (+19)
    Labour 221 (-10)
    SNP 47 (-9)
    Lib Dems 10 (+2)
    Others 22 (-2)
    TORY MAJORITY 50

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 43% +6%
    Labour 33% +3%
    Lib Dems 10% +2%
    UKIP 3% -9%

    My hunch is that if the Tory lead is 10%, their majority will be closer to 100 than 50.
    I don't think that necessarily follows anymore.

    The recent polls have suggested that Labour's rise in voteshare has been disproportionately concentrated in the North, Wales and to some extent in the Midlands (i.e. where their previously vulnerable seats largely are), while being more stable in the South, London and Scotland -- thus making for a more "efficient" Labour vote distribution.
    Yes but we never know what the pesky voters REALLY think till the election results start coming in !
  • Options
    TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225
    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    How do you stop landlords passing it on to their tenants through increased rent?
    I've got no idea about labours plans, but on LVT - I think the theory is, once land/property loses its (mostly) tax free status, prices/values will come down - significantly - and the yield investors/landlords get will readjust.

    Rough figures;

    Current property value= 400k.
    0% tax = -£0k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -£8k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >£8k/year or £625 PCM

    After LVT value = 100K.
    5% tax = -5k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -2k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >7K/year or £563 PCM
    So the govt - the marxist one - taxes us all and hey presto we are all better off.
    'Gee' said Yossarian, 'thats some tax that tax 22'
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited May 2017

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    How do you stop landlords passing it on to their tenants through increased rent?
    The tax incidence of LTV is on the owner because the supply of land is fixed. This is ultimately what stops landlords passing on the cost to tenants. (Worth reading through Wikipedia's fairly readable guide to tax incidence - once you get your head around how elasticity of supply and demand affect incidence, and recognise that supply of land is fixed, the result is intuitive.)

    The effect of LVT on land prices is more ambiguous. The first-order effect is a reduction in price, as you would expect. But if LVT leads to reduction in other taxes, or increased investment, this can cause land prices to rise.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    TMA1 said:

    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    How do you stop landlords passing it on to their tenants through increased rent?
    I've got no idea about labours plans, but on LVT - I think the theory is, once land/property loses its (mostly) tax free status, prices/values will come down - significantly - and the yield investors/landlords get will readjust.

    Rough figures;

    Current property value= 400k.
    0% tax = -£0k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -£8k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >£8k/year or £625 PCM

    After LVT value = 100K.
    5% tax = -5k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -2k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >7K/year or £563 PCM
    So the govt - the marxist one - taxes us all and hey presto we are all better off.
    'Gee' said Yossarian, 'thats some tax that tax 22'
    Those without property will be better off, those with property will be worse off.
  • Options
    TypoTypo Posts: 195
    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Time to stick my neck on the line....

    PREDICTION

    Seats
    Conservatives 350 (+19)
    Labour 221 (-10)
    SNP 47 (-9)
    Lib Dems 10 (+2)
    Others 22 (-2)
    TORY MAJORITY 50

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 43% +6%
    Labour 33% +3%
    Lib Dems 10% +2%
    UKIP 3% -9%

    My hunch is that if the Tory lead is 10%, their majority will be closer to 100 than 50.
    I don't think that necessarily follows anymore.

    The recent polls have suggested that Labour's rise in voteshare has been disproportionately concentrated in the North, Wales and to some extent in the Midlands (i.e. where their previously vulnerable seats largely are), while being more stable in the South, London and Scotland -- thus making for a more "efficient" Labour vote distribution.
    Can we read enough from sub-samples (notwithstanding the separate Wales polls) to declare where Labour's bounce (if there is one) is coming from? I'm not sure we can.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Safe to say neither leader will be tripped up by Dimbleby?

    Well you say that but it was on QT where Cameron was compared to Neville Chamberlain so you never know...


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAH87qyfEDE
    A video that serves to remind us how much better DC was at TV than Mother May. I don't know why I'm so nostalgic for DC, I wasn't much of a fan, but during this campaign I've missed him. Must remember to get a life.
    I remember just how critical Iain Martin was about David Cameron for years, hindsight provides new eyes....

    Iain Martin for Reaction - 10 reasons I miss David Cameron
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Typo said:

    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Time to stick my neck on the line....

    PREDICTION

    Seats
    Conservatives 350 (+19)
    Labour 221 (-10)
    SNP 47 (-9)
    Lib Dems 10 (+2)
    Others 22 (-2)
    TORY MAJORITY 50

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 43% +6%
    Labour 33% +3%
    Lib Dems 10% +2%
    UKIP 3% -9%

    My hunch is that if the Tory lead is 10%, their majority will be closer to 100 than 50.
    I don't think that necessarily follows anymore.

    The recent polls have suggested that Labour's rise in voteshare has been disproportionately concentrated in the North, Wales and to some extent in the Midlands (i.e. where their previously vulnerable seats largely are), while being more stable in the South, London and Scotland -- thus making for a more "efficient" Labour vote distribution.
    Can we read enough from sub-samples (notwithstanding the separate Wales polls) to declare where Labour's bounce (if there is one) is coming from? I'm not sure we can.
    Well, the previous assumption that Labour was suffering an above-average swing in their traditional "heartlands" (which is where all the predictions of Labour being set to win even less seats than UNS indicated came from) was mostly just based on subsamples in the first place :p
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    Danny565 said:

    Typo said:

    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Time to stick my neck on the line....

    PREDICTION

    Seats
    Conservatives 350 (+19)
    Labour 221 (-10)
    SNP 47 (-9)
    Lib Dems 10 (+2)
    Others 22 (-2)
    TORY MAJORITY 50

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 43% +6%
    Labour 33% +3%
    Lib Dems 10% +2%
    UKIP 3% -9%

    My hunch is that if the Tory lead is 10%, their majority will be closer to 100 than 50.
    I don't think that necessarily follows anymore.

    The recent polls have suggested that Labour's rise in voteshare has been disproportionately concentrated in the North, Wales and to some extent in the Midlands (i.e. where their previously vulnerable seats largely are), while being more stable in the South, London and Scotland -- thus making for a more "efficient" Labour vote distribution.
    Can we read enough from sub-samples (notwithstanding the separate Wales polls) to declare where Labour's bounce (if there is one) is coming from? I'm not sure we can.
    Well, the previous assumption that Labour was suffering an above-average swing in their traditional "heartlands" (which is where all the predictions of Labour being set to win even less seats than UNS indicated came from) was mostly just based on subsamples in the first place :p
    What seat are you canvassing etc in out of interest - was it Wirral West ?
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited May 2017
    Pong said:

    TMA1 said:

    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    How do you stop landlords passing it on to their tenants through increased rent?
    I've got no idea about labours plans, but on LVT - I think the theory is, once land/property loses its (mostly) tax free status, prices/values will come down - significantly - and the yield investors/landlords get will readjust.

    Rough figures;

    Current property value= 400k.
    0% tax = -£0k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -£8k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >£8k/year or £625 PCM

    After LVT value = 100K.
    5% tax = -5k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -2k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >7K/year or £563 PCM
    So the govt - the marxist one - taxes us all and hey presto we are all better off.
    'Gee' said Yossarian, 'thats some tax that tax 22'
    Those without property will be better off, those with property will be worse off.
    A word to the wise, the SNP just lifted the council tax freeze up here and then went after those owning bigger houses in the hope of pocketing the increased tax revenue centrally while at the same time imposing cuts to council budgets. The voters reacted with an increased turnout in many areas most effected, and local elections results that fell far short of SNP expectations just weeks before a GE.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited May 2017
    fitalass said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Safe to say neither leader will be tripped up by Dimbleby?

    Well you say that but it was on QT where Cameron was compared to Neville Chamberlain so you never know...


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAH87qyfEDE
    A video that serves to remind us how much better DC was at TV than Mother May. I don't know why I'm so nostalgic for DC, I wasn't much of a fan, but during this campaign I've missed him. Must remember to get a life.
    I remember just how critical Iain Martin was about David Cameron for years, hindsight provides new eyes....

    Iain Martin for Reaction - 10 reasons I miss David Cameron
    Thanks for the link: nice piece, and exactly where I'm coming from. I had hoped he'd stay in government and maybe one day return to a cabinet post - Ed Sec? - but alas the days of former PMs hanging around are long over. I think the EU ref point is often forgotten by us Brexiteers: it was under DC's watch that the Tories put a renegotiation and ref in a manifesto, and then executed that commitment in government. Of course, the renegotiation was a farce and DC probably assumed he'd win the ref at a canter(and thus was worth putting in to atttact UKIP voters) but still.
  • Options
    TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225
    Pong said:

    TMA1 said:

    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    How do you stop landlords passing it on to their tenants through increased rent?
    I've got no idea about labours plans, but on LVT - I think the theory is, once land/property loses its (mostly) tax free status, prices/values will come down - significantly - and the yield investors/landlords get will readjust.

    Rough figures;

    Current property value= 400k.
    0% tax = -£0k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -£8k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >£8k/year or £625 PCM

    After LVT value = 100K.
    5% tax = -5k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -2k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >7K/year or £563 PCM
    So the govt - the marxist one - taxes us all and hey presto we are all better off.
    'Gee' said Yossarian, 'thats some tax that tax 22'
    Those without property will be better off, those with property will be worse off.
    Clearly those without are always wanting stuff from those with. That is what elections used to be about.
    If the tories just discovered this ferengi print in labours manifesto where were the journalists all this time?
    If the tories have known about it for a bit its interesting timing to push it out now. Quite a dead cat.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Twitter
    Ed Conway‏ @EdConwaySky 2h2 hours ago
    Most economists rather like idea of a land tax instead of council tax. Then again, most economists have little grasp of what wins elections
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Ed Conway‏ @EdConwaySky 2h2 hours ago
    Most economists rather like idea of a land tax instead of council tax. Then again, most economists have little grasp of what wins elections

    Economists may know more about electoral dynamics than Ed Conway thinks they do.

    Homeowners have become (always were?) the tory client vote.

    Homeownership has been falling off a cliff.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3719079/National-crisis-home-ownership-hits-30-year-low-Runaway-prices-slow-wage-increases-mean-millions-unable-deposit.html
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    How do you stop landlords passing it on to their tenants through increased rent?
    I've got no idea about labours plans, but on LVT - I think the theory is, once land/property loses its (mostly) tax free status, prices/values will come down - significantly - and the yield investors/landlords get will readjust.

    Rough figures;

    Current property value= 400k.
    0% tax = -£0k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -£8k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >£8k/year or £625 PCM

    After LVT value = 100K.
    5% tax = -5k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -2k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >7K/year or £563 PCM
    So a 5% tax will cause a 75% reduction in land value?

    Seems like there might be an error in the maths there.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited May 2017

    fitalass said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    SNIP

    SNIP
    SNIP
    I remember just how critical Iain Martin was about David Cameron for years, hindsight provides new eyes....

    Iain Martin for Reaction - 10 reasons I miss David Cameron
    Thanks for the link: nice piece, and exactly where I'm coming from. I had hoped he'd stay in government and maybe one day return to a cabinet post - Ed Sec? - but alas the days of former PMs hanging around are long over. I think the EU ref point is often forgotten by us Brexiteers: it was under DC's watch that the Tories put a renegotiation and ref in a manifesto, and then executed that commitment in government. Of course, the renegotiation was a farce and DC probably assumed he'd win the ref at a canter(and thus was worth putting in to atttact UKIP voters) but still.
    Sacking George Osborne in the manner she did remains one of Theresa May's biggest political mistakes to date, she then effectively stripped her own Cabinet and Government of some of its biggest hitters at both media and Ministerial level because of their 'loyalty' to Cameron and Osborne. It is to Cameron and Osborne's credit that they not only managed to bring back Hague, IDS and even Ken Clarke back into the Shadow Cabinet fold, but managed to deploy them all very effectively as they did Major when required. What Lynton Crosby could have done with Cameron, Osborne, Major etc during this election when the chips were down during the Social Care row etc we will never know. But it speaks volumes about May and her team that none of these big hitters where available to her when she really needed them, and now Osborne is editing the Standard instead. And all because May's team like Gordon Brown's before her preferred to hold grudges to the detriment of good political judgement and governance.

    If May is returned with a good working majority, she needs to now put the country first and those grudges second as we head into those bruising Brexit negociations while she tries to juggle her domestic agenda. She needs a Cabinet not only full of talent able to do the day jobs at Ministerial level, but also a Cabinet she works with as a team and who can then effectively get out there in the TV/Radio studios and sell the Governments domestic and Brexit programme. May and her team don't just have a duty to her premiership, they have a duty to provide a Government record in Office and the platform for us to find the best Conservative successor who would be proud to inherit her shoes if she chooses not to run again for Office in 2022.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    How do you stop landlords passing it on to their tenants through increased rent?
    I've got no idea about labours plans, but on LVT - I think the theory is, once land/property loses its (mostly) tax free status, prices/values will come down - significantly - and the yield investors/landlords get will readjust.

    Rough figures;

    Current property value= 400k.
    0% tax = -£0k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -£8k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >£8k/year or £625 PCM

    After LVT value = 100K.
    5% tax = -5k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -2k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >7K/year or £563 PCM
    So a 5% tax will cause a 75% reduction in land value?

    Seems like there might be an error in the maths there.
    And the mortgage would still be 8k, surely? The house hasn't got any cheaper!
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I can't believe anyone could remotely think that an overnight 75% crash in house prices would be welcome. While a house price adjustment might be desirable, how many would be in catastrophic negative equity?

    If a 5% tax caused a 10% crash in property values (still a considerable fall):

    Current property value= 400k.
    0% tax = -£0k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -£8k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >£8k/year or £625 PCM

    After LVT value = 360K.
    5% tax = -18k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -7.2k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >25.2K/year or £2100 PCM
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    How do you stop landlords passing it on to their tenants through increased rent?
    I've got no idea about labours plans, but on LVT - I think the theory is, once land/property loses its (mostly) tax free status, prices/values will come down - significantly - and the yield investors/landlords get will readjust.

    Rough figures;

    Current property value= 400k.
    0% tax = -£0k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -£8k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >£8k/year or £625 PCM

    After LVT value = 100K.
    5% tax = -5k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -2k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >7K/year or £563 PCM
    So a 5% tax will cause a 75% reduction in land value?

    Seems like there might be an error in the maths there.
    And the mortgage would still be 8k, surely? The house hasn't got any cheaper!
    Indeed for anyone in negative equity who'd purchased the property before the crash they'd still be liable for what they'd borrowed in full.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Ah, I hadn't appreciated that the value would actually be down by 3/4. Yeah, that seems sub-optimal.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    How do you stop landlords passing it on to their tenants through increased rent?
    I've got no idea about labours plans, but on LVT - I think the theory is, once land/property loses its (mostly) tax free status, prices/values will come down - significantly - and the yield investors/landlords get will readjust.

    Rough figures;

    Current property value= 400k.
    0% tax = -£0k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -£8k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >£8k/year or £625 PCM

    After LVT value = 100K.
    5% tax = -5k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -2k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >7K/year or £563 PCM
    So a 5% tax will cause a 75% reduction in land value?

    Seems like there might be an error in the maths there.
    And the mortgage would still be 8k, surely? The house hasn't got any cheaper!
    Yeah. Major negative equity for many.

    Shockingly few people seem to realise taking on a mortgage is a massive leveraged gamble on house prices.

    After the crash in Ireland - and when a LVT was being proposed - some properties were down 90% from their peak.

    There were a few extreme examples in the Irish midlands of 95%+, although I can't find them on google right now
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Typo said:

    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Time to stick my neck on the line....

    PREDICTION

    Seats
    Conservatives 350 (+19)
    Labour 221 (-10)
    SNP 47 (-9)
    Lib Dems 10 (+2)
    Others 22 (-2)
    TORY MAJORITY 50

    Vote Shares
    Conservatives 43% +6%
    Labour 33% +3%
    Lib Dems 10% +2%
    UKIP 3% -9%

    My hunch is that if the Tory lead is 10%, their majority will be closer to 100 than 50.
    I don't think that necessarily follows anymore.

    The recent polls have suggested that Labour's rise in voteshare has been disproportionately concentrated in the North, Wales and to some extent in the Midlands (i.e. where their previously vulnerable seats largely are), while being more stable in the South, London and Scotland -- thus making for a more "efficient" Labour vote distribution.
    Can we read enough from sub-samples (notwithstanding the separate Wales polls) to declare where Labour's bounce (if there is one) is coming from? I'm not sure we can.
    London, the North, Wales, West Midlands and a little everywhere else.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    Pong said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Ed Conway‏ @EdConwaySky 2h2 hours ago
    Most economists rather like idea of a land tax instead of council tax. Then again, most economists have little grasp of what wins elections

    Economists may know more about electoral dynamics than Ed Conway thinks they do.

    Homeowners have become (always were?) the tory client vote.

    Homeownership has been falling off a cliff.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3719079/National-crisis-home-ownership-hits-30-year-low-Runaway-prices-slow-wage-increases-mean-millions-unable-deposit.html
    The SNP are discovering to their cost that unfreezing the council tax, increasing the council tax on bigger homes after the imposing that stamp duty levy at a time when the Scottish housing market and economy is hanging on by a shoogle peg is not a vote winner up here in Scotland.

    Hitting those that do own their own homes, with or without a mortgage, this hard in their pocket is not a vote winner. While their actions might not effect the better off, it will effect the just/barely managing majority after ten years of financial belt tightening. You only have to look at the constituencies up here in Scotland where the SNP are now suddenly looking very vulnerable after the local elections and at this GE. So no, just maybe the economists don't know more about the electoral dynamics of this issue than Ed Conway thinks they do.

  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    RobD said:

    Ah, I hadn't appreciated that the value would actually be down by 3/4. Yeah, that seems sub-optimal.

    High property prices, divorced from both local earnings and build cost, aren't optimal in the slightest in a productive economy.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Pong said:

    RobD said:

    Ah, I hadn't appreciated that the value would actually be down by 3/4. Yeah, that seems sub-optimal.

    High property prices, divorced from both local earnings and build cost, aren't optimal in the slightest in a productive economy.
    No, but a drop of 75% overnight would probably be worse. :p
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    OT, but Thanet South decision is due either today, tomorrow, or Thursday, given that the one-year extension was granted June 1 2016.
  • Options
    PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    hoveite said:

    Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

    Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

    Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.
    No it's not council tax is a land occupation tax as it's paid by the occupier not the owner.

    Eh ?

    In my case that's the same person. But surely Labour should tax the OWNERS - this stinks to high heaven if it is on the occupiers !
    More taxes for generation rent - is this right ?
    If it's a proper Land Value Tax it should be on the owners, not the occupiers, because it's a tax on the potential fully exploited value of the land. ie you would pay the same tax on an undeveloped piece of land as on one with houses built on it, assuming the first has planning permission. The benefit claimed for LVT is that unlike other taxes its incentives are beneficial, not perverse. By contrast income tax discourages employment; rates discourage development.
    How do you stop landlords passing it on to their tenants through increased rent?
    I've got no idea about labours plans, but on LVT - I think the theory is, once land/property loses its (mostly) tax free status, prices/values will come down - significantly - and the yield investors/landlords get will readjust.

    Rough figures;

    Current property value= 400k.
    0% tax = -£0k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -£8k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >£8k/year or £625 PCM

    After LVT value = 100K.
    5% tax = -5k
    100% mortgage @ 2% interest only = -2k
    Rent (in order for investment to be viable) = >7K/year or £563 PCM
    So a 5% tax will cause a 75% reduction in land value?

    Seems like there might be an error in the maths there.
    And the mortgage would still be 8k, surely? The house hasn't got any cheaper!
    Indeed for anyone in negative equity who'd purchased the property before the crash they'd still be liable for what they'd borrowed in full.
    You'd get a Tory revival in Islington and Muswell Hill if that ever came to pass..
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "What’s brewing in Germany?
    How to understand Angela Merkel’s comments about America and Britain
    They were aimed at four distinct audiences"

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/kaffeeklatsch/2017/05/what-s-brewing-germany
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    SNIP

    SNIP
    SNIP
    I remember just how critical Iain Martin was about David Cameron for years, hindsight provides new eyes....

    Iain Martin for Reaction - 10 reasons I miss David Cameron
    Thanks for the link: nice piece, and exactly where I'm coming from. I had hoped he'd stay in government and maybe one day return to a cabinet post - Ed Sec? - but alas the days of former PMs hanging around are long over. I think the EU ref point is often forgotten by us Brexiteers: it was under DC's watch that the Tories put a renegotiation and ref in a manifesto, and then executed that commitment in government. Of course, the renegotiation was a farce and DC probably assumed he'd win the ref at a canter(and thus was worth putting in to atttact UKIP voters) but still.
    Sacking George Osborne in the manner she did remains one of Theresa May's biggest political mistakes to date, she then effectively stripped her own Cabinet and Government of some of its biggest hitters at both media and Ministerial level because of their 'loyalty' to Cameron and Osborne. It is to Cameron and Osborne's credit that they not only managed to bring back Hague, IDS and even Ken Clarke back into the Shadow Cabinet fold, but managed to deploy them all very effectively as they did Major when required. What Lynton Crosby could have done with Cameron, Osborne, Major etc during this election when the chips were down during the Social Care row etc we will never know. But it speaks volumes about May and her team that none of these big hitters where available to her when she really needed them, and now Osborne is editing the Standard instead. And all because May's team like Gordon Brown's before her preferred to hold grudges to the detriment of good political judgement and governance.

    If May is returned with a good working majority, she needs to now put the country first and those grudges second as we head into those bruising Brexit negociations while she tries to juggle her domestic agenda. She needs a Cabinet not only full of talent able to do the day jobs at Ministerial level, but also a Cabinet she works with as a team and who can then effectively get out there in the TV/Radio studios and sell the Governments domestic and Brexit programme. May and her team don't just have a duty to her premiership, they have a duty to provide a Government record in Office and the platform for us to find the best Conservative successor who would be proud to inherit her shoes if she chooses not to run again for Office in 2022.

    Very well said. I agree totally
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    Hmm.

    I think significant property taxation - in some form - is inevitable over the coming years.

    The tax avoiding bots are going to continue eating into income tax receipts and we have to figure out a way to fund the baby boomers retirement/health/social care somehow.

    Unless we find another north sea oil, or something - chancellors (blue, red and/or yellow) will have no option but to take aim at property. LVT is one option. Social care levy is another.

    The era of (largely) tax-free property ownership and house price gains could well be over.

    'twas fun (for some) while it lasted.

    I was born 30 years too late.
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    So there is no actual evidence that council tax will actual treble... just some back of a fag packet calculations based on a sentence in the Labour manifesto. Why are people taken in by this nonsense?
  • Options
    PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    SNIP

    SNIP
    SNIP
    I remember just how critical Iain Martin was about David Cameron for years, hindsight provides new eyes....

    Iain Martin for Reaction - 10 reasons I miss David Cameron
    Thanks for the link: nice piece, and exovernment. Of course, the renegotiation was a farce and DC probably assumed he'd win the ref at a canter(and thus was worth putting in to atttact UKIP voters) but still.
    Sacking George Osborne in the manner she did remains one of Theresa May's biggest political mistakes to date, she then effectively stripped her own Cabinet and Government of some of its biggest hitters at both media and Ministerial level because of their 'loyalty' to Cameron and Osborne. It is to Cameron and Osborne's credit that they not only managed to bring back Hague, IDS and even Ken Clarke back into the Shadow Cabinet fold, but managed to deploy them all very effectively as they did Major when required. What Lynton Crosby could have done with Cameron, Osborne, Major etc during this election when the chips were down during the Social Care row etc we will never know. But it speaks volumes about May and her team that none of these big hitters where available to her when she really needed them, and now Osborne is editing the Standard instead. And all because May's team like Gordon Brown's before her preferred to hold grudges to the detriment of good political judgement and governance.

    If May is returned with a good working majority, she needs to now put the country first and those grudges second as we head into those bruising Brexit negociations while she tries to juggle her domestic agenda. She needs a Cabinet not only full of talent able to do the day jobs at Ministerial level, but also a Cabinet she works with as a team and who can then effectively get out there in the TV/Radio studios and sell the Governments domestic and Brexit programme. May and her team don't just have a duty to her premiership, they have a duty to provide a Government record in Office and the platform for us to find the best Conservative successor who would be proud to inherit her shoes if she chooses not to run again for Office in 2022.

    Very well said. I agree totally
    Saw a comment elsewhere that the Tories have their "B" team out for this election, and for various reasons so do Labour.

    Arguably the Lib Dems are in the same boat as well. Very thin front benches on all sides.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Pong said:

    Hmm.

    I think significant property taxation - in some form - is inevitable over the coming years.

    The tax avoiding bots are going to continue eating into income tax receipts and we have to figure out a way to fund the baby boomers retirement/health/social care somehow.

    Unless we find another north sea oil, or something - chancellors (blue, red and/or yellow) will have no option but to take aim at property. LVT is one option. Social care levy is another.

    The era of (largely) tax-free property ownership and house price gains could well be over.

    'twas fun (for some) while it lasted.

    I was born 30 years too late.

    Absolutely agree.
    It should be gradually phased in - which means the sooner we start the better.
    Land value tax explained here:

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/11/economist-explains-0

    Imo much fairer to tax this way than income tax.
  • Options
    TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225
    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    SNIP

    SNIP
    SNIP
    I remember just how critical Martin was about David for years, hindsight provides new eyes....

    Iain Martin for Reaction - 10 reasons I miss David Cameron
    Thanks for the link: nice piece, and exactly where I'm coming from. I had hoped he'd stay in government and maybe one day return to a cabinet post - Ed Sec? - but alas the days of former PMs hanging around are long over. I think the EU ref point is often forgotten by us Brexiteers: it was under DC's watch that the Tories put a renegotiation and ref in a manifesto, and then executed that commitment in government. Of course, the renegotiation was a farce and DC probably assumed he'd win the ref at a canter(and thus was worth putting in to atttact UKIP voters) but still.
    Sacking George Osborne in the manner she did remains one of Theresa May's biggest political mistakes to date, she then effectively stripped her own Cabinet and Government of some of its biggest hitters at both media and Ministerial level because of their 'loyalty' to Cameron and Osborne. It is to Cameron and Osborne's credit that they not only managed to bring back Hague, IDS and even Ken Clarke back into the Shadow Cabinet fold, but managed to deploy them all very effectively as they did Major when required. What Lynton Crosby could have done with Cameron, Osborne, Major etc during this election when the chips were down during the Social Care row etc we will never know. But it speaks volumes about May and her team that none of these big hitters where available to her when she really needed them, and now Osborne is editing the Standard instead. And all because May's team like Gordon Brown's before her preferred to hold grudges to the detriment of good political judgement and governance.

    If May is returned with a good working majority, she needs to now put the country first and those grudges second as we head into those bruising Brexit negociations while she tries to juggle her domestic agenda. She needs a Cabinet not only full of talent able to do the day jobs at Ministerial level, but also a Cabinet she works with as a team and who can then effectively get out there in the TV/Radio studios and sell the Governments domestic and Brexit programme. May and her team don't just have a duty to her premiership, they have a duty to provide a Government record in Office and the platform for us to find the best Conservative successor who would be proud to inherit her shoes if she chooses not to run again for Office in 2022.

    Not really true. Gove sacked himself and after Osborne's claims he could hardly stay as chancellor.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2017
    rkrkrk said:

    Pong said:

    Hmm.

    I think significant property taxation - in some form - is inevitable over the coming years.

    The tax avoiding bots are going to continue eating into income tax receipts and we have to figure out a way to fund the baby boomers retirement/health/social care somehow.

    Unless we find another north sea oil, or something - chancellors (blue, red and/or yellow) will have no option but to take aim at property. LVT is one option. Social care levy is another.

    The era of (largely) tax-free property ownership and house price gains could well be over.

    'twas fun (for some) while it lasted.

    I was born 30 years too late.

    Absolutely agree.
    It should be gradually phased in - which means the sooner we start the better.
    Land value tax explained here:

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/11/economist-explains-0

    Imo much fairer to tax this way than income tax.
    There has to be a cross-party agreement and introduced in one parliament for a start in the next. Also maybe tapered in the first few years.

    This could be one way of taking care of our perennial problem about what to do with buy-to-let properties.

    This could be a runner if it is generally agreed. However, a revaluation has to be built-in which could not be cancelled or postponed. Otherwise, we will end up with the same time-bombs we face with council taxes.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    PaulM said:

    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    SNIP

    SNIP
    SNIP
    I remember just how critical Iain Martin was about David Cameron for years, hindsight provides new eyes....

    Iain Martin for Reaction - 10 reasons I miss David Cameron
    Thanks for the link: nice piece, and exovernment. Of course, the renegotiation was a farce and DC probably assumed he'd win the ref at a canter(and thus was worth putting in to atttact UKIP voters) but still.
    Sacking George Osborne in the manner she did remains one of Theresa May's biggest political mistakes to date, she then effectively stripped her own Cabinet and Government of some of its biggest hitters at both media and Ministerial level because of their 'loyalty' to Cameron and Osborne. It is to Cameron and Osborne's credit that they not only managed to bring back Hague, IDS and even Ken Clarke back into the Shadow Cabinet fold, but managed to deploy them all very effectively as they did Major when required. What Lynton Crosby could have done with Cameron, Osborne, Major etc during this election when the chips were down during the Social Care row etc we will never know. But it speaks volumes about May and her team that none of these big hitters where available to her when she really needed them, and now Osborne is editing the Standard instead. And all because May's team like Gordon Brown's before her preferred to hold grudges to the detriment of good political judgement and governance.

    If May is returned with a good working majority, she needs to now put the country first and those grudges second as we head into those bruising Brexit negociations while she tries to juggle her domestic agenda. She needs a Cabinet not only full of talent able to do the day jobs at Ministerial level, but also a Cabinet she works with as a team and who can then effectively get out there in the TV/Radio studios and sell the Governments domestic and Brexit programme. May and her team don't just have a duty to her premiership, they have a duty to provide a Government record in Office and the platform for us to find the best Conservative successor who would be proud to inherit her shoes if she chooses not to run again for Office in 2022.

    Very well said. I agree totally
    Saw a comment elsewhere that the Tories have their "B" team out for this election, and for various reasons so do Labour.

    Arguably the Lib Dems are in the same boat as well. Very thin front benches on all sides.
    Lib Dems only have 8 front benchers.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    surbiton said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Pong said:

    Hmm.

    I think significant property taxation - in some form - is inevitable over the coming years.

    The tax avoiding bots are going to continue eating into income tax receipts and we have to figure out a way to fund the baby boomers retirement/health/social care somehow.

    Unless we find another north sea oil, or something - chancellors (blue, red and/or yellow) will have no option but to take aim at property. LVT is one option. Social care levy is another.

    The era of (largely) tax-free property ownership and house price gains could well be over.

    'twas fun (for some) while it lasted.

    I was born 30 years too late.

    Absolutely agree.
    It should be gradually phased in - which means the sooner we start the better.
    Land value tax explained here:

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/11/economist-explains-0

    Imo much fairer to tax this way than income tax.
    There has to be a cross-party agreement and introduced in one parliament for a start in the next. Also maybe tapered in the first few years.

    This could be one way of taking care of our perennial problem about what to do with buy-to-let properties.

    This could be a runner if it is generally agreed. However, a revaluation has to be built-in which could not be cancelled or postponed. Otherwise, we will end up with the same time-bombs we face with council taxes.
    Total value of UK residential property is something like 6 trillion pounds.
    0.5% tax/year could raise 30 billion on residential property. On the average 200k home it would be £1,000 a year, on £85/month. It will hurt land speculators a lot. Those country estates will also get hammered?

    Possible social effects (speculating)... I could easily imagine a shift back to intergenerational living arrangements. The grandparents moving in with the parents...
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2017
    Survation - now Baxterised

    C 344, Lab 226, LD 3, UKIP 0, GRN 1, SNP 55, PC 3, NI 18

    I did not tick the Scotland Prediction box as the Scottish sub-samples were meaningless.

    The one SNP loss is to CON [ Borders ]. Therefore, you could add maybe another half-a-dozen to the Tories and 1 or 2 to Labour.

  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    surbiton said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Pong said:

    Hmm.

    I think significant property taxation - in some form - is inevitable over the coming years.

    The tax avoiding bots are going to continue eating into income tax receipts and we have to figure out a way to fund the baby boomers retirement/health/social care somehow.

    Unless we find another north sea oil, or something - chancellors (blue, red and/or yellow) will have no option but to take aim at property. LVT is one option. Social care levy is another.

    The era of (largely) tax-free property ownership and house price gains could well be over.

    'twas fun (for some) while it lasted.

    I was born 30 years too late.

    Absolutely agree.
    It should be gradually phased in - which means the sooner we start the better.
    Land value tax explained here:

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/11/economist-explains-0

    Imo much fairer to tax this way than income tax.
    There has to be a cross-party agreement and introduced in one parliament for a start in the next. Also maybe tapered in the first few years.

    This could be one way of taking care of our perennial problem about what to do with buy-to-let properties.

    This could be a runner if it is generally agreed. However, a revaluation has to be built-in which could not be cancelled or postponed. Otherwise, we will end up with the same time-bombs we face with council taxes.
    It would need an enforcement mechanism and a government with big enough balls (or enough political capital) to break any boycott.

    Part of the reason why we tax income so heavily isn't because it's right, or fair. It's because it's so damn easy for the chancellor to collect.

    Finding a property owner and getting him to write a cheque every year is a little more difficult.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    rkrkrk said:

    surbiton said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Pong said:

    Hmm.

    I think significant property taxation - in some form - is inevitable over the coming years.

    The tax avoiding bots are going to continue eating into income tax receipts and we have to figure out a way to fund the baby boomers retirement/health/social care somehow.

    Unless we find another north sea oil, or something - chancellors (blue, red and/or yellow) will have no option but to take aim at property. LVT is one option. Social care levy is another.

    The era of (largely) tax-free property ownership and house price gains could well be over.

    'twas fun (for some) while it lasted.

    I was born 30 years too late.

    Absolutely agree.
    It should be gradually phased in - which means the sooner we start the better.
    Land value tax explained here:

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/11/economist-explains-0

    Imo much fairer to tax this way than income tax.
    There has to be a cross-party agreement and introduced in one parliament for a start in the next. Also maybe tapered in the first few years.

    This could be one way of taking care of our perennial problem about what to do with buy-to-let properties.

    This could be a runner if it is generally agreed. However, a revaluation has to be built-in which could not be cancelled or postponed. Otherwise, we will end up with the same time-bombs we face with council taxes.
    Total value of UK residential property is something like 6 trillion pounds.
    0.5% tax/year could raise 30 billion on residential property. On the average 200k home it would be £1,000 a year, on £85/month. It will hurt land speculators a lot. Those country estates will also get hammered?

    Possible social effects (speculating)... I could easily imagine a shift back to intergenerational living arrangements. The grandparents moving in with the parents...
    But it could be phased in and council tax gradually removed. The rents will change also. Tenants benefit from reduced CT. Landlords pay LVT. Rents will go up to compensate.

    Phasing-in is crucial. Any change where there are winners or losers is politically dynamite.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pong said:

    surbiton said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Pong said:

    Hmm.

    I think significant property taxation - in some form - is inevitable over the coming years.

    The tax avoiding bots are going to continue eating into income tax receipts and we have to figure out a way to fund the baby boomers retirement/health/social care somehow.

    Unless we find another north sea oil, or something - chancellors (blue, red and/or yellow) will have no option but to take aim at property. LVT is one option. Social care levy is another.

    The era of (largely) tax-free property ownership and house price gains could well be over.

    'twas fun (for some) while it lasted.

    I was born 30 years too late.

    Absolutely agree.
    It should be gradually phased in - which means the sooner we start the better.
    Land value tax explained here:

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/11/economist-explains-0

    Imo much fairer to tax this way than income tax.
    There has to be a cross-party agreement and introduced in one parliament for a start in the next. Also maybe tapered in the first few years.

    This could be one way of taking care of our perennial problem about what to do with buy-to-let properties.

    This could be a runner if it is generally agreed. However, a revaluation has to be built-in which could not be cancelled or postponed. Otherwise, we will end up with the same time-bombs we face with council taxes.
    It would need an enforcement mechanism and a government with big enough balls (or enough political capital) to break any boycott.

    Part of the reason why we tax income so heavily isn't because it's right, or fair. It's because it's so damn easy for the chancellor to collect.

    Finding a property owner and getting him to write a cheque every year is a little more difficult.
    This has another great advantage. All those absentee landlords and offshore company owners come into the net.

    But again, gradual phase-in of LVT, and gradual phase-out of CT is workable.
  • Options
    People who spout on about Land value taxes are no different to people who go on about fiat currencies, the gold standard or the monetarists of old. Crazed monomaniacs who have phul proof schemes and plans that idiots in power can not see value in. due no doubt to the power of the illumanati etc etc.

    The two big problems of LVT are.

    a. People go on how LVT will be more efficient for the economy, that cash poor people will sell up to the cash rich, who will develop more expensive land near city centres and transport nodes into blocks of flats and offices etc. Thereby producing a more housing near where people want to live etc etc,

    This is sonehow supposed to pass unoticed by the populace, when thedrive for middleclass democracy has been the protection of the value of their home, from green belt legislation , basically all planing restrictions, environmental legislation, how can one pay a tax if their are restrictions placed on maximising said tax.

    Then of course there is arguement of valuation, what the improved and unimproved value is, what government restrictions on land development change your ability to pay etc.

    Imagine the valuation disputes.

    Now remember that council tax rates are still set on valuations from the 1990's. Politicians get the hive from just thinking about it and the poll tax the last time anyone made a change to local taxes,

    Now we get to it's even biggest problem. Land taxes are not based on your ability to pay. Taxes are either based on either income, or you must make a decision to buy somerthing or an unavoidable change.

    So VAT, Stamp duty of death duties.

    But land tax is not like that , it is like council tax in so far you sort of pay more, the more expensive your house is.

    In it's pure form quite substantial sums are expected to be paid, this burden is reduced b slashing all other taxes, but as with all tax xhanges the losers scream the loudest and their would be some very big losers. For starters all those old people in high value properties but on smallish pensions, so grandpa your not allowed to stay in the family home, you got to move to some where cheap and undesireable our we well take all your familes wealth away!

    We just saw the screams over some mild changes over social care. If this came in Cities would be on fire, certainly plenty of politicians would be.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2017
    UK military involvement abroad increase the risk of terrorism - Survation

    Agree 46%
    Disagree 14%
    Makes no difference 30%
    DK 10%

    Across all parties, all age groups and all regions.
  • Options
    archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    No, land taxes are easiest to collect as there is no way the asset can be hidden. You either pay, or the Government takes and sells the land to get their money. Income tax is easier to avoid.

    The problem as always is that the middle/upper middle classes who have paid higher levels of income tax will not accept having to pay higher levels on tax on the wealth they have accumulated as well. It is the problem we face in a system where we try and exempt such a large percentage of the population from any financial liability for their decisions - hence why someone like Corbyn can thrive. Why not vote for looney spending if you never have to pay for any of it?
    Pong said:



    It would need an enforcement mechanism and a government with big enough balls (or enough political capital) to break any boycott.

    Part of the reason why we tax income so heavily isn't because it's right, or fair. It's because it's so damn easy for the chancellor to collect.

    Finding a property owner and getting him to write a cheque every year is a little more difficult.

  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130
    surbiton said:

    UK military involvement abroad increase the risk of terrorism - Survation

    Agree 46%
    Disagree 14%
    Makes no difference 30%
    DK 10%

    Across all parties, all age groups and all regions.

    But useless without the follow up question: does that make it the wrong thing to do?
  • Options
    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,977
    Survation have 82% of 18-24s certain to vote. I'd suggest that's a tad high: https://t.co/HitSvFb1Ar

    ..from electiondata...
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    surbiton said:

    UK military involvement abroad increase the risk of terrorism - Survation

    Agree 46%
    Disagree 14%
    Makes no difference 30%
    DK 10%

    Across all parties, all age groups and all regions.

    But useless without the follow up question: does that make it the wrong thing to do?
    Useless in what sense? It's not a referendum on whether we should bomb France; it's presumably intended to tell us if voters find Jezza's contention outrageous or even wrong.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Survation have 82% of 18-24s certain to vote. I'd suggest that's a tad high: https://t.co/HitSvFb1Ar

    ..from electiondata...

    Absurd...
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    HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    Survation have 82% of 18-24s certain to vote. I'd suggest that's a tad high: https://t.co/HitSvFb1Ar

    ..from electiondata...

    For any group that is ridiculously high.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,130

    Survation have 82% of 18-24s certain to vote. I'd suggest that's a tad high: https://t.co/HitSvFb1Ar

    ..from electiondata...

    If you were looking for a single piece of evidence that pollsters were trying to manipulate data to engineer a much closer election: Exhibit A....

    For all their mass of complex algorithms, is there no common sense filter applied at Survation? Does nobody press a WTF??? button?
This discussion has been closed.