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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair the chance of a CON majority edge to lowest level since election was called

During tonight’s Channel 4/Sky News Corbyn/May event I monitored the Betfair overall majority market to see if there was any movement.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

I think that Corbyn/Falklands quote will be mentioned a lot.

RobD

Second

RobD

I thought that both Corbyn and May did OK and I was surprised that the PM was not tempted to attack the Labour leader in anyway whatsoever.

Fair enough for her to rise above that. I think she only mentioned Labour once, during the audience questions.

numbertwelve

I'm surprised you had that reaction to Paxo on Corbyn, Mike.

Corbyn was certainly doing well for the first half of that interview, but he got completely eviscerated at the end by the questions on drone strikes and the Falklands.

It was all going so well for him...

alex.

Ave_it said:

OK let's be clear

It's the worst CON campaign of all time!

Reckon 1997 might run it close...

Ave_it

Yawn

Hello MalcolmG - do you think SNP will only lose 20 seats or will it be more than that?

RobD

Ave_it said:

Yawn

Hello MalcolmG - do you think SNP will only lose 20 seats or will it be more than that?

More importantly, what's the news on the ground in Bootle?

midwinter

alex. said:

Ave_it said:

OK let's be clear

It's the worst CON campaign of all time!

Reckon 1997 might run it close...

2015 seemed fairly dire at times. Right up until the exit poll in fact..

kle4

Yeah, probably fair to dip, given the polls and recent events.

Typo

I don't think the decision to call an election is much of an issue at all beyond those of who follow each and every machination. The moment for it to blow up as an issue has probably been and gone now.

kle4

View_From_Cumbria said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

That McDonnell stuff on knee-capping is just poison.

Every time I despair of TMay (about every five minutes) and start to think Hmm, maybe Labour would be OK, I am reminded that the Corbyn leadership team is actively evil.

Not inept, or misguided, or silly, or overly naive, but actively nasty, cruel, dangerous and treasonable. UGH.

"deplorable"?

For me shocking and I'm not easily shocked. I'm intrigued and appalled as to any context when you could make a joke out of this. Surely it isn't genuine.

Well according to the write up his spokesperson responded by saying McDonnell doesn't recollect saying it, but still insists it is taken out of context, so I am very sure it is genuine. Otherwise they'd say he has no recollection and it must be a fabrication.

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

midwinter said:

Ave_it said:

OK let's be clear

It's the worst CON campaign of all time! We should have focused on proper policies such as stopping all 'tax credits' which are really handouts to underachieving people to encourage them to produce children and also a radical tax cutting agenda ie allowing people to keep their money ie wot they have worked for.

But its still not Corbyn Abbot or McDonnell!

So it's 45 - 35 min and 40 maj!!!

Then when we do win we can make Amber PM!!!!

Nah. We want Ruth!!!

Maybe after her second term as First Minister?

You tories are not right in the head, that dud will go nowhere.

Better be respectful, you're talking about the third Conservative Prime Minister.

It might be after she wins the nobel prize though.

surbiton

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think that Corbyn/Falklands quote will be mentioned a lot.

As long as they can point out in the map where they are.

kle4

RobD said:

I thought that both Corbyn and May did OK and I was surprised that the PM was not tempted to attack the Labour leader in anyway whatsoever.

Fair enough for her to rise above that. I think she only mentioned Labour once, during the audience questions.

Seems like an odd but deliberate choice - as I am fond of noting, in contrast to the other manifestos, The Tory one doesn't refer to Corbyn or their opponents at all (The LD one only did a bit, the Labour one liberally, and UKIP was all over the place, naming Corbyn, May, Gordon Brown twice, ever random veteran Labour MPs)

numbertwelve

midwinter said:

alex. said:

Ave_it said:

OK let's be clear

It's the worst CON campaign of all time!

Reckon 1997 might run it close...

2015 seemed fairly dire at times. Right up until the exit poll in fact..

Yes, I thought all the way through it was an abysmal Tory campaign. They were lauded by the commentariat after the vote as if they'd played a masterstroke. I could never see it that way. I suspect it was, essentially, a dull score draw and the campaign didn't change people's minds all that much.

Pulpstar

Typo said:

I don't think the decision to call an election is much of an issue at all beyond those of who follow each and every machination. The moment for it to blow up as an issue has probably been and gone now.

Yep, we are where we are.

malcolmg

Ave_it said:

Yawn

Hello MalcolmG - do you think SNP will only lose 20 seats or will it be more than that?

Hello AveIt , do you wish to put your money where your mouth is?

kle4

alex. said:

Ave_it said:

OK let's be clear

It's the worst CON campaign of all time!

Reckon 1997 might run it close...

I think these things have to be judged with some kind of handicap - and 18 years of Tory rule to have as baggage has to be plenty of handicap.

Sean_F

midwinter said:

alex. said:

Ave_it said:

OK let's be clear

It's the worst CON campaign of all time!

Reckon 1997 might run it close...

2015 seemed fairly dire at times. Right up until the exit poll in fact..

1987 and 2010 were horrific.

RobD

kle4 said:

alex. said:

Ave_it said:

OK let's be clear

It's the worst CON campaign of all time!

Reckon 1997 might run it close...

I think these things have to be judged with some kind of handicap - and 18 years of Tory rule to have as baggage has to be plenty of handicap.

Hmmm.. it's going to be tough after a thousand years of PB Tory rule, isn't it?

kle4

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think that Corbyn/Falklands quote will be mentioned a lot.

As long as they can point out in the map where they are.

You don't need to know where it is to get worked up about it. Probably should need to, but people can manage it.

TudorRose

kle4 said:

View_From_Cumbria said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

That McDonnell stuff on knee-capping is just poison.

Every time I despair of TMay (about every five minutes) and start to think Hmm, maybe Labour would be OK, I am reminded that the Corbyn leadership team is actively evil.

Not inept, or misguided, or silly, or overly naive, but actively nasty, cruel, dangerous and treasonable. UGH.

"deplorable"?

For me shocking and I'm not easily shocked. I'm intrigued and appalled as to any context when you could make a joke out of this. Surely it isn't genuine.

Well according to the write up his spokesperson responded by saying McDonnell doesn't recollect saying it, but still insists it is taken out of context, so I am very sure it is genuine. Otherwise they'd say he has no recollection and it must be a fabrication.

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

midwinter said:

Ave_it said:

OK let's be clear

It's the worst CON campaign of all time! We should have focused on proper policies such as stopping all 'tax credits' which are really handouts to underachieving people to encourage them to produce children and also a radical tax cutting agenda ie allowing people to keep their money ie wot they have worked for.

But its still not Corbyn Abbot or McDonnell!

So it's 45 - 35 min and 40 maj!!!

Then when we do win we can make Amber PM!!!!

Nah. We want Ruth!!!

Maybe after her second term as First Minister?

You tories are not right in the head, that dud will go nowhere.

kle4 wrote; Better be respectful, you're talking about the third Conservative Prime Minister.

It might be after she wins the nobel prize though.


You mean after HRH Professor Lord Nuttall has collected his....

MarqueeMark

Labour PPB going on Fatcha!!!!

midwinter

numbertwelve said:

I'm surprised you had that reaction to Paxo on Corbyn, Mike.

Corbyn was certainly doing well for the first half of that interview, but he got completely eviscerated at the end by the questions on drone strikes and the Falklands.

It was all going so well for him...

That last 5 minutes might motivate a lot of disgruntled Tory voters to get off their collevtive arses. Whatever ones views on May, Corbyn is just vile and that was hammered home tonight.

kle4

numbertwelve said:

midwinter said:

alex. said:

Ave_it said:

OK let's be clear

It's the worst CON campaign of all time!

Reckon 1997 might run it close...

2015 seemed fairly dire at times. Right up until the exit poll in fact..

Yes, I thought all the way through it was an abysmal Tory campaign. They were lauded by the commentariat after the vote as if they'd played a masterstroke. I could never see it that way. I suspect it was, essentially, a dull score draw and the campaign didn't change people's minds all that much.

If that is the case again I will apologise to the Tories for doubting them. Though to have very little change from the position at the time of the election being called and election day would be even more dramatic than 2015 as there have been some sizable changes compared to then I believe.

The_Apocalypse

FPT:

SouthamObserver said:

All sides in Labour need to reflect. Moderates must accept a left-wing message can be sold; the left has to accept it can only be effectively sold by someone without the kind of baggage Corbyn has.

Clive Lewis.

- Had a career in the military (so no issues with patriotism)
- Left wing enough for the membership to accept
- Normal, personable.

I like him, despite disagreeing with him on a few things.

Peter_the_Punter

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think that Corbyn/Falklands quote will be mentioned a lot.

Yes, if you want to vote against Corbyn, and wanted something from tonite's programme to justify it, that quote would serve well.

If you wanted to vote against May, and likewise were looking for some justification, you'd be spoilt for choice.

RobD

TudorRose said:

kle4 said:

Better be respectful, you're talking about the third Conservative Prime Minister.

It might be after she wins the nobel prize though.

You mean after HRH Professor Lord Nuttall has collected his....

I've heard he's a shoe-in to be the first sextuple-laureate (physics, chemistry, medicine, literature, peace, and economics).

MarqueeMark

FPT:

Y0kel said:
I'm beginning to think the shy Tory thing is a little bit in effect in the country again


There's still plenty of folk for whom admitting they were voting Tory for the first time would be social death. Keep their heads down, keep schtum, vote for Theresa May and keep their fingers crossed no-one finds out....

A very good friend of mine is rabidly anti-Tory. He has no idea his wife voted for Thatcher in '79!

TMA1

At weakest 'blaming everything on the libdems'

Well colour me unsurprised by that conclusion

Y0kel

Prediction.

Conservative 43% or higher
Labour 33% or lower.

alex.

midwinter said:

alex. said:

Ave_it said:

OK let's be clear

It's the worst CON campaign of all time!

Reckon 1997 might run it close...

2015 seemed fairly dire at times. Right up until the exit poll in fact..

Has there ever been a Conservative Election campaign that has earned widespread praise (without the benefit of hindsight)? Wasn't it said that Labour ran away with the campaigns in the 80s? Foot won by a country mile.

Conservative manifestos are almost always offering hard choices and handicapped by defending a record in Government. Labour manifestos offer sweeties and are usually going on the offensive against the Government of the day. Miliband's main problem in 2015 was when he found himself having to defend Labour's Govt record.

kle4

The_Apocalypse said:

SouthamObserver said:

FPT:

SouthamObserver said:

All sides in Labour need to reflect. Moderates must accept a left-wing message can be sold; the left has to accept it can only be effectively sold by someone without the kind of baggage Corbyn has.

Clive Lewis.

- Had a career in the military (so no issues with patriotism)
- Left wing enough for the membership to accept
- Normal, personable.

I like him, despite disagreeing with him on a few things.

Plus his seat might have been vulnerable without the Corbyn surge effect, so he has reason to be grateful to them, and he's only been on the outs with them for a short while.

surbiton

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think that Corbyn/Falklands quote will be mentioned a lot.

Yes, if you want to vote against Corbyn, and wanted something from tonite's programme to justify it, that quote would serve well.

If you wanted to vote against May, and likewise were looking for some justification, you'd be spoilt for choice.

Fair point.

Sean_F

kle4 said:

numbertwelve said:

midwinter said:

alex. said:

Ave_it said:

OK let's be clear

It's the worst CON campaign of all time!

Reckon 1997 might run it close...

2015 seemed fairly dire at times. Right up until the exit poll in fact..

Yes, I thought all the way through it was an abysmal Tory campaign. They were lauded by the commentariat after the vote as if they'd played a masterstroke. I could never see it that way. I suspect it was, essentially, a dull score draw and the campaign didn't change people's minds all that much.

If that is the case again I will apologise to the Tories for doubting them. Though to have very little change from the position at the time of the election being called and election day would be even more dramatic than 2015 as there have been some sizable changes compared to then I believe.

Most Conservative campaigns are dire - except with hindsight.

kle4

RobD said:

kle4 said:

alex. said:

Ave_it said:

OK let's be clear

It's the worst CON campaign of all time!

Reckon 1997 might run it close...

I think these things have to be judged with some kind of handicap - and 18 years of Tory rule to have as baggage has to be plenty of handicap.

Hmmm.. it's going to be tough after a thousand years of PB Tory rule, isn't it?

The Maybot 3000 will see you through the hard times.

TMA1

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think that Corbyn/Falklands quote will be mentioned a lot.

Yes, if you want to vote against Corbyn, and wanted something from tonite's programme to justify it, that quote would serve well.

If you wanted to vote against May, and likewise were looking for some justification, you'd be spoilt for choice.

Well there you go again.
Yet more proof if any were needed about how pointless all this Q & A malarkey is.

matt

The last line of the thread header is lovely - A certainity that something might happen.

A masterpiece of simultaneous cake owning and eating.

Sunil_Prasannan

Sean T Tory Punters panicking

malcolmg

I presume Ave it has been tucked in by nanny. I doubt he will want to back up his preposterous suggestion, send PM if you are stupid enough. I have a busy day tomorrow so must to bed.

marke09

now official

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)

(via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

TMA1

kle4 said:

RobD said:

I thought that both Corbyn and May did OK and I was surprised that the PM was not tempted to attack the Labour leader in anyway whatsoever.

Fair enough for her to rise above that. I think she only mentioned Labour once, during the audience questions.

Seems like an odd but deliberate choice - as I am fond of noting, in contrast to the other manifestos, The Tory one doesn't refer to Corbyn or their opponents at all (The LD one only did a bit, the Labour one liberally, and UKIP was all over the place, naming Corbyn, May, Gordon Brown twice, ever random veteran Labour MPs)

Did the LD one list all the bad decisions they made whilst they were in government?

kle4

marke09 said:

now official

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)

(via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

Stunning!

Yeah, about in line with others. Lab up, Tory steady, polls either adjusting for not expecting young to turnout as they say they will, or banking on them actually doing it this time.

camel

Have we found out whether Abbot will be appearing for Labour on Tuesday's show. After tonight's turgidity, the gaiety of the nation needs adding to.

KentRising

alex. said:

midwinter said:

alex. said:

Ave_it said:

OK let's be clear

It's the worst CON campaign of all time!

Reckon 1997 might run it close...

2015 seemed fairly dire at times. Right up until the exit poll in fact..

Has there ever been a Conservative Election campaign that has earned widespread praise (without the benefit of hindsight)? Wasn't it said that Labour ran away with the campaigns in the 80s? Foot won by a country mile.

Conservative manifestos are almost always offering hard choices and handicapped by defending a record in Government. Labour manifestos offer sweeties and are usually going on the offensive against the Government of the day. Miliband's main problem in 2015 was when he found himself having to defend Labour's Govt record.

Cameron got pilloried for 'only' making 97 net gains in 2010.

Peter_the_Punter

TMA1 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think that Corbyn/Falklands quote will be mentioned a lot.

Yes, if you want to vote against Corbyn, and wanted something from tonite's programme to justify it, that quote would serve well.

If you wanted to vote against May, and likewise were looking for some justification, you'd be spoilt for choice.

Well there you go again.
Yet more proof if any were needed about how pointless all this Q & A malarkey is.

Well no, not entirely, TMA1.

Corbyn isn't my cup of tea and I didn't vote for him, but tonite, for the first time ever, I thought he looked Prime Ministerial. Never expected to write such a thing, but you have to call it how you see it.

Programme was worthwhile for me for that reason, if no other.

Jason

Sky reporting that Corbyn denies attending commemoration for dead IRA soldiers. He must not be allowed to get away with this again.

Sunil_Prasannan

Y0kel said:

Prediction.

Conservative 43% or higher
Labour 33% or lower.

Hey, Y0Kel! Don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate PB Tories will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx! WVAP! Fry half a Labour majority with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, phased plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks... Election flyers...

RobD

So it's just the QA on the 2nd of June now, and then election night!

TheKitchenCabinet

Part of me wonders whether JC actually wants Labour to be totally screwed in this election. Consider this.

The modern Labour party is a tension between the trendy, urbanites, educated youngsters who love JC and what he stands for re open borders, multiculturalism etc and the more traditional WWC voters in non-urban areas who are socially conservative. JC obviously gets his support from the first group and the opposition amongst his PLP mainly comes from those who represent the second.

Anecdotally, JC seems to be repelling many of the second group (see the Atul Hatwal article on Labour Uncut). But, for JC, whose aim is to ensure his brand of hard-Leftism takes ultimate control of the party, that might not be a bad thing. Because, if the non-urban WWC do turn decisively against Labour, it will take many of his Parliamentary opponents with him. What would then be left is a Labour party based in the cities which gets its support from the first group. Their MPs will represent their views and, if they don't, they will get deselected.

End result. JC and his friends end up controlling the Labour Party. Yes, Labour may have shrunk to <120 or possibly <100 but, to the hard Left, that will be a price worth paying to ensure their long-term control of the party. And it will represent a massive leap forward for the hard Left in terms of the ability to project their agenda than they have ever reached before.

kle4

TMA1 said:

kle4 said:

RobD said:

I thought that both Corbyn and May did OK and I was surprised that the PM was not tempted to attack the Labour leader in anyway whatsoever.

Fair enough for her to rise above that. I think she only mentioned Labour once, during the audience questions.

Seems like an odd but deliberate choice - as I am fond of noting, in contrast to the other manifestos, The Tory one doesn't refer to Corbyn or their opponents at all (The LD one only did a bit, the Labour one liberally, and UKIP was all over the place, naming Corbyn, May, Gordon Brown twice, ever random veteran Labour MPs)

Did the LD one list all the bad decisions they made whilst they were in government?

Not as I recall - taking credit for things, stopping other things from happening I think was how it went, but I'd have to reread.

An amusing thing about it and the Lab one were the bits clearly written by different people. Farron's opening pitch involved essentially asking for the LDs to be made the main opposition IIRC, rather than act as though he would get into government, and some pledges were written with that sort of thing in mind 'Would oppose attempts to repeal x', that sort of thing, while others were written assuming a LD government 'We would do x' sort of thing. Lab had several examples of the same, though not as many.

foxinsoxuk

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

numbertwelve said:

midwinter said:

alex. said:

Ave_it said:

OK let's be clear

It's the worst CON campaign of all time!

Reckon 1997 might run it close...

2015 seemed fairly dire at times. Right up until the exit poll in fact..

Yes, I thought all the way through it was an abysmal Tory campaign. They were lauded by the commentariat after the vote as if they'd played a masterstroke. I could never see it that way. I suspect it was, essentially, a dull score draw and the campaign didn't change people's minds all that much.

If that is the case again I will apologise to the Tories for doubting them. Though to have very little change from the position at the time of the election being called and election day would be even more dramatic than 2015 as there have been some sizable changes compared to then I believe.

Most Conservative campaigns are dire - except with hindsight.

It is the dire actions in government that make the dire actions campaigning look mundane.

RobD

Jason said:

Sky reporting that Corbyn denies attending commemoration for dead IRA soldiers. He must not be allowed to get away with this again.

I don't think the denied it, just that he said it wasn't a commemoration for them.

GIN1138

Have finished with Jezza.

Overall he did quite well. Was better with Faisal and struggled with Paxman.

On to Tezza...

Ave_it

malcolmg said:

I presume Ave it has been tucked in by nanny. I doubt he will want to back up his preposterous suggestion, send PM if you are stupid enough. I have a busy day tomorrow so must to bed.

Hello Malc - sorry my internet link failed!

Hope you are here on #GEnight - unlike at Indyref

Jason

RobD said:

Jason said:

Sky reporting that Corbyn denies attending commemoration for dead IRA soldiers. He must not be allowed to get away with this again.

I don't think the denied it, just that he said it wasn't a commemoration for them.

That's not why sky are saying.

RobD

GIN1138 said:

Have finished with Jezza.

Overall he did quite well. Was better with Faisal and struggled with Paxman.

On to Tezza...

Half way there!

Ave_it

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Y0kel said:

Prediction.

Conservative 43% or higher
Labour 33% or lower.

Hey, Y0Kel! Don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate PB Tories will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx! WVAP! Fry half a Labour majority with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, phased plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks... Election flyers...

Yes Yokel is right - could still be LAB sub 150...

alex.

kle4 said:

marke09 said:

now official

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)

(via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

Stunning!

Yeah, about in line with others. Lab up, Tory steady, polls either adjusting for not expecting young to turnout as they say they will, or banking on them actually doing it this time.

I think there's something in the ICM analysis of "the young". The young are not a monolithic mass - there is a fundamental dividing line between those who go/aspire to go to university and those who don't. And that's about 50:50. But the split isn't a party political split but between the former, who vote in quite high numbers and have high political engagement, and the latter, who don't (and because they don't are rarely interested in participating in opinion polls). So the result is that the Youth vote is always massively skewed towards the anti-Tory spectrum, but always based on at most half the eligible electorate. And of course the latter have nothing to gain from zero tuition fees etc etc.

foxinsoxuk

Jason said:

RobD said:

Jason said:

Sky reporting that Corbyn denies attending commemoration for dead IRA soldiers. He must not be allowed to get away with this again.

I don't think the denied it, just that he said it wasn't a commemoration for them.

That's not why sky are saying.

Murdoch being anti Labour? Whatever next!

Sean_F

kle4 said:

marke09 said:

now official

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)

(via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

Stunning!

Yeah, about in line with others. Lab up, Tory steady, polls either adjusting for not expecting young to turnout as they say they will, or banking on them actually doing it this time.

Labour's advance is at the expense of Greens and SNP (the latter now down to a very low 2%),

TMA1

midwinter said:

numbertwelve said:

I'm surprised you had that reaction to Paxo on Corbyn, Mike.

Corbyn was certainly doing well for the first half of that interview, but he got completely eviscerated at the end by the questions on drone strikes and the Falklands.

It was all going so well for him...

That last 5 minutes might motivate a lot of disgruntled Tory voters to get off their collevtive arses. Whatever ones views on May, Corbyn is just vile and that was hammered home tonight.

Yes. Telling that OGH does not come to the other (correct in my book) conclusion that Corbyn simply lied about his past and his intentions for the future.
To be fair what else does anyone expect him to have said?

kle4

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

marke09 said:

now official

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)

(via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

Stunning!

Yeah, about in line with others. Lab up, Tory steady, polls either adjusting for not expecting young to turnout as they say they will, or banking on them actually doing it this time.

Labour's advance is at the expense of Greens and SNP (the latter now down to a very low 2%),

The former, surely?!

Jason

foxinsoxuk said:

Jason said:

RobD said:

Jason said:

Sky reporting that Corbyn denies attending commemoration for dead IRA soldiers. He must not be allowed to get away with this again.

I don't think the denied it, just that he said it wasn't a commemoration for them.

That's not why sky are saying.

Murdoch being anti Labour? Whatever next!

You heard what Corbyn said. Do you believe what he said?

Ave_it

Is the Survation poll out yet?!

Pong

My mind is made up.

I could have swung one of three ways, but ultimately I can't condone either the tories or labour leaderships/manifestos.

They're shite.

I'm going to be voting for Tim (not a sin).

RobD

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

marke09 said:

now official

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)

(via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

Stunning!

Yeah, about in line with others. Lab up, Tory steady, polls either adjusting for not expecting young to turnout as they say they will, or banking on them actually doing it this time.

Labour's advance is at the expense of Greens and SNP (the latter now down to a very low 2%),

The Survation poll is a UK-wide poll, which explains the low SNP figure.

Sean_F

kle4 said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

marke09 said:

now official

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)

(via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

Stunning!

Yeah, about in line with others. Lab up, Tory steady, polls either adjusting for not expecting young to turnout as they say they will, or banking on them actually doing it this time.

Labour's advance is at the expense of Greens and SNP (the latter now down to a very low 2%),

The former, surely?!

It's about 24% of the Scottish vote).

RobD

Ave_it said:

Is the Survation poll out yet?!

In case you aren't being a cheeky bugger, here it is:

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)

(via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

Pulpstar

Pong said:

My mind is made up.

I could have swung one of three ways, but ultimately I can't condone either the tories or labour leaderships and manifestos.

They're shite.

I'm going to be voting for Tim (not a sin).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRHetRTOD1Q

TheWhiteRabbit

RobD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

marke09 said:

now official

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)

(via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

Stunning!

Yeah, about in line with others. Lab up, Tory steady, polls either adjusting for not expecting young to turnout as they say they will, or banking on them actually doing it this time.

Labour's advance is at the expense of Greens and SNP (the latter now down to a very low 2%),

The Survation poll is a UK-wide poll, which explains the low SNP figure.

Doesn't quite explain it. That is definitely the SNP down

Edit: which I don't believe

Peter_the_Punter

Pong said:

My mind is made up.

I could have swung one of three ways, but ultimately I can't condone either the tories or labour leaderships and manifestos.

I'm going to be voting for Tim (not a sin).

Wow, that's two votes the LDs have got, Pong! Both are for different reasons, I'm sure, but it's two more than some thought they might get.

Ishmael_Z

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Y0kel said:

Prediction.

Conservative 43% or higher
Labour 33% or lower.

Hey, Y0Kel! Don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate PB Tories will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx! WVAP! Fry half a Labour majority with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, phased plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks... Election flyers...

You'd better just start dealing with it, Sunil! Listen to me! Sunil! Just deal with it because we need you and I'm sick of your bullshit.

Ave_it

Who else thinks LD will only win Orkney & Shetland?

Tykejohnno

Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

TheWhiteRabbit

Ave_it said:

Who else thinks LD will only win Orkney & Shetland?

I have them on 7-10 seats, with 1-4 gains and commesurate losses.

RobD

TheWhiteRabbit said:

RobD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

marke09 said:

now official

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)

(via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

Stunning!

Yeah, about in line with others. Lab up, Tory steady, polls either adjusting for not expecting young to turnout as they say they will, or banking on them actually doing it this time.

Labour's advance is at the expense of Greens and SNP (the latter now down to a very low 2%),

The Survation poll is a UK-wide poll, which explains the low SNP figure.

Doesn't quite explain it. That is definitely the SNP down

Edit: which I don't believe

MoE at that level? SNP are down in the averages, but only slightly.

ThreeQuidder

I had better things to to this evening than watch the "debate", but I gather Corbyn called the Falklands a "Tory plot"? Surely not?

FF43

Ave_it said:

Who else thinks LD will only win Orkney & Shetland?

I think they will get Edinburgh West. I can't answer for the English and Welsh seats.

TheWhiteRabbit

Tykejohnno said:

Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.

Jason

Tykejohnno said:

Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

Now that is gold dust for the Tories.

RobD

ThreeQuidder said:

I had better things to to this evening than watch the "debate", but I gather Corbyn called the Falklands a "Tory plot"? Surely not?

given our inability to plot a successful manifesto launch, I think engineering a war with Argentina is a bit far-fetched.

The_Taxman

TMA1 said:

midwinter said:

numbertwelve said:

I'm surprised you had that reaction to Paxo on Corbyn, Mike.

Corbyn was certainly doing well for the first half of that interview, but he got completely eviscerated at the end by the questions on drone strikes and the Falklands.

It was all going so well for him...

That last 5 minutes might motivate a lot of disgruntled Tory voters to get off their collevtive arses. Whatever ones views on May, Corbyn is just vile and that was hammered home tonight.

Yes. Telling that OGH does not come to the other (correct in my book) conclusion that Corbyn simply lied about his past and his intentions for the future.
To be fair what else does anyone expect him to have said?

The extreme left like Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott lie so well. They misrepresent the truth so comprehensively that it is breath-taking in its audacity! I have seen clips of them advocating a really extreme position and then currently saying they either never said that, it is not their current position or they claim it is made up. It is just unbelievable. The problem is the broadcasters seem to shy away from communicating this and in this age TV is the best media to communicate such duplicity to an audience that might change their view on voting. I tacitly mean that putting it in the daily mail or telegraph will not disseminate the message as effectively as would a piece on sky news or the BBC.

surbiton

FF43 said:

Ave_it said:

Who else thinks LD will only win Orkney & Shetland?

I think they will get Edinburgh West. I can't answer for the English and Welsh seats.

Swinson should win too. They will win Bath.

TheWhiteRabbit

Jason said:

Tykejohnno said:

Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

Now that is gold dust for the Tories.

It's the opposite of what a land value tax should do. It's going to hit generation rent instead of focussing on development sites.

RobD

Not sure this has been posted in a while.... Corbyn IRA ad now on 3.5 million views.

Gallowgate

When can we next expect a poll? Not Survation...

kle4

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Tykejohnno said:

Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE

Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.

Surely not, they only a positive message.

That one must have slipped past me. Good for Labour for proposing a big rise, if that is indeed what is proposed. I feel like the wait to bring it up was so opponents could come up with a name that people would not like the sound of.

Ave_it

FF - they will probably get that and maybe Ross Cromarty & Skye - maybe Swinson land too

No seats in Eng or Wales

Carshalton, Norfolk N and Westmorland safe for Con - maybe Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam too or Labour might win those

Southport Con gain

Ceredigion Con or PC

GIN1138

Tezza doing quite well explaining social care policy... Floundering badly on CFP...

Sean_F

TheWhiteRabbit said:

RobD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

marke09 said:

now official

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)

(via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

Stunning!

Yeah, about in line with others. Lab up, Tory steady, polls either adjusting for not expecting young to turnout as they say they will, or banking on them actually doing it this time.

Labour's advance is at the expense of Greens and SNP (the latter now down to a very low 2%),

The Survation poll is a UK-wide poll, which explains the low SNP figure.

Doesn't quite explain it. That is definitely the SNP down

Edit: which I don't believe

I expect the SNP to win about 40% in Scotland, which is 3.5% overall.

Prodicus

FPT

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Part of me wonders whether JC actually wants Labour to be totally screwed in this election. Consider this.

The modern Labour party is a tension between the trendy, urbanites, educated youngsters who love JC and what he stands for re open borders, multiculturalism etc and the more traditional WWC voters in non-urban areas who are socially conservative. JC obviously gets his support from the first group and the opposition amongst his PLP mainly comes from those who represent the second.

Anecdotally, JC seems to be repelling many of the second group (see the Atul Hatwal article on Labour Uncut). But, for JC, whose aim is to ensure his brand of hard-Leftism takes ultimate control of the party, that might not be a bad thing. Because, if the non-urban WWC do turn decisively against Labour, it will take many of his Parliamentary opponents with him. What would then be left is a Labour party based in the cities which gets its support from the first group. Their MPs will represent their views and, if they don't, they will get deselected.

End result. JC and his friends end up controlling the Labour Party. Yes, Labour may have shrunk to <120 or possibly <100 but, to the hard Left, that will be a price worth paying to ensure their long-term control of the party. And it will represent a massive leap forward for the hard Left in terms of the ability to project their agenda than they have ever reached before. </p>

I always assumed that was the plan from the outset.

kle4

Ave_it said:

FF - they will probably get that and maybe Ross Cromarty & Skye - maybe Swinson land too

No seats in Eng or Wales

Carshalton, Norfolk N and Westmorland safe for Con - maybe Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam too or Labour might win those

Southport Con gain

Ceredigion Con or PC

My worst case scenario has them holding 1 seat each in England, Scotland and Wales, or 3 total, 2 in Scotland.

Best case around 13.

Jason

GIN1138 said:

Tezza doing quite well explaining social care policy... Floundering badly on CFP...

Yes, we know. We've already watched it.

FF43

Sean_F said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

RobD said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

marke09 said:

now official

Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 37% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 4% (-)

(via @Survation / 26 - 27 May)

Stunning!

Yeah, about in line with others. Lab up, Tory steady, polls either adjusting for not expecting young to turnout as they say they will, or banking on them actually doing it this time.

Labour's advance is at the expense of Greens and SNP (the latter now down to a very low 2%),

The Survation poll is a UK-wide poll, which explains the low SNP figure.

Doesn't quite explain it. That is definitely the SNP down

Edit: which I don't believe

I expect the SNP to win about 40% in Scotland, which is 3.5% overall.

How do opinion polls deal with Don't Knows - ie those that will definitely vote, but don't know yet who for, or won't say?

Ave_it

Garden tax - happy with 3% PA on buy to let - am I Labour now?!

surbiton

Who is winning the twitter war ?

RobD

Jason said:

GIN1138 said:

Tezza doing quite well explaining social care policy... Floundering badly on CFP...

Yes, we know. We've already watched it.

GIN's just catching up.

ReggieCide

So Mike, you're SURE that this MIGHT become an issue. There's conviction for you

PClipp

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Tykejohnno said:

Labour planning new ‘Garden Tax’ which would see council tax TREBLE
Small print from Labour’s manifesto reveals a proposal to replace council tax with a new Land Value Tax
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3676113/labour-planning-new-garden-tax-which-would-see-council-tax-treble/

Bit of a disconnect. Council tax is a land value tax. All this is is a big rise in Council Tax.

Not at all, Mr Rabbit. Council Tax is levied on the value of the property. Site Value Tax is levied on the value of the site, as if there was no construction on it. The difference is that you can improve your property as much as you like, but the value of the site remains the same.

The later is a long-standing Liberal policy, and is very sensible. If Labour are picking that up now, it is to be welcomed. But I wouldn`t mind betting they do not understand it.

RobD

surbiton said:

Who is winning the twitter war ?

Since when has that been a useful metric in anything?