I also think a Tory majority of 50 to 100 might see May compromise a bit with the EU, well over 100 would see hard Brexit go full steam ahead, barely any majority or a hung parliament and soft Brexit becomes more likely
That looks a lot less likely now. I will not vote Labour while Corbyn leads the party, but I do think that he has shown it is possible to run a campaign and get a hearing without kow-towing to the right press. We will see what the result will be - I still cannot see beyond a big Tory win - but things don't look so bleak for Labour as they did at the start of the campaign. There is a way back.
That's the problem. Labour MPs still can't support Corbyn as leader. They are not standing on his manifesto, they are standing against it in many cases. That's not a formula for government
Interesting comments from Paul Mason on Newsnight who I think to be fair has been quite bullish about Lab prospects from the start of the campaign:
1) He always thought it would be quite easy for Lab to get up to 35% by gathering all votes from the left. But then much harder to go much higher as that requires centrist votes.
2) He thinks big problem for Lab could well be piling up large numbers of extra votes in seats they win anyway - ie much less efficient votes to seats efficiency.
How on earth anyone ANYWHERE near the centre ground could remotely consider voting for a party lead by Corbyn, McDonnell & Abbott is utterly beyond me.
Can any Corbyn apologist remind me what part of Germany's interventionist foreign policy lead to a terrorist mowing down 12 souls in Berlin last christmas ?
Why should anyone in the centre vote for a Tory government which has cut 25% from the Police budget since 2010 ?
Austerity has to go. Let normality return.
Government debt has risen by over a trillion quid in the last decade.
How can that be described as 'austerity' ?
And what does 'let normality return' mean fiscally ?
We will find out what 'austerity' means if Corbyn wins. There'll be a bond upswing and it'll cost the government a lot more to fund the existing deficit never mind free owls, microwaves, electricity and degrees for all.
And we really would see the City more to Frankfurt, the car factories shut down, overseas investment end and the stock market crash.
I rather suspect a minority Corbyn government would be brought down within months, possibly weeks.
"And we really would see the City more to Frankfurt, the car factories shut down, overseas investment end and the stock market crash."
Why won't these things happen if we leave the EU without a Brexit deal?
They may. But with a stable regulatory system and reasonable/predictable taxes it may stay. With Corbyn+Brexit London might have little appeal to many.
On topic, I note Butler is saying that a tie in terms of votes would put the Tories ahead in seats? This is the opposite from the forecast made in 2015 on the same boundaries.
Assuming UNS(*), yes. The Tories' vote efficiency was massively better in 2015, outweighing on that occasion the Labour bias inherent in the boundaries.
(*) Which looks brave in this particular election...
There was considerable worldwide support for the NATO led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. International goodwill that was squandered in Iraq.
Though perhaps the longer view requires looking at the funding and arming of the Mujahadin against the Soviets by Maggie and Ronnie in the Eighties. That is how Bin Laden started, back when Islamist terrorists were considered the good guys by our press barons.
Looking at the state of Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen now it is hard to defend the case that our foreign policy has been flawless. We should at least consider what we would do differently the next time a MENA country tears itself apart. Lobbing bombs at civil wars has not worked out well.
Jezza was not arguing that Western Foreign policy was soley responsible for the rise of Islamism, but it is nessecary to at least consider how much it contributed. The War on Terror is a unique war where each side specialises in self harm.
I'm not arguing that our foreign policy has been flawless: far from. It's just that the extremists are far more responsive than we are, and are looking for reasons to be aggrieved.
bin Laden's an interesting example. Afghanistan is an odd place for a Saudi national to have got 'started', isn't it? Or perhaps he was radicalised elsewhere and went looking for a fight. And if that's the case, *any* intervention in *any* Muslim land, however valid, would lead to problems.
The final endpoint of your position is that we end up leaving all lands Muslim extremists call their own to them (even including places like much of Spain), and not to react when they preform heinous acts inside 'their' lands, or outside to us.
We can't go around not pandering to extremists, because they will always want more.
He went to Afghanistan to join the Mujahadin (I have no idea how to spell that).
Yes, I know, and that's my point. If you make a decision to go and join fighters in a foreign land, then you're already radicalised. He may have made contacts and learnt skills over there, and that's bad, but it's not as if he went over as a peace-loving young man wanting to find peace.
I could be wrong, but I seem to recall that at the time the Mujahadin were regarded, in significant parts of the West as well as the Muslim world, as brave freedom fighters opposing the might of the atheistic Soviets.
On topic, I note Butler is saying that a tie in terms of votes would put the Tories ahead in seats? This is the opposite from the forecast made in 2015 on the same boundaries.
The big difference this time is the absence of a meaningful UKIP vote. The Conservatives will win and were always going to win because they can claim most of the former UKIP voters. Corbyn is almost a red herring MN
People have consistently underestimated Corbyn: both outside his party and inside. He's proven remarkably resilient, and now we're seeing the same in this election campaign.
Leaving aside his many negative attributes, his mettle's impressive. So far, May's hasn't been.
He's very relaxed, and I think he really enjoys the campaign. May does not. Not sure how that translates into competence for running the country though.
I think there's a feedback loop.
Even if he loses (which he will) he has demonstrated to many that a hard left approach can be popular. It will make it very difficult for the Blairites to "take back control"
Morning all,
Indeed. If Labour don't win then they are going to be in an awful situation after this campaign - Corbyn won't be going anywhere and they will have done well enough to deflect the critics.
If Corbyn stays on and May struggles to deliver on her promises, we all know what is likely to happen next.
Are you still predicting a split in Labour ?
That looks a lot less likely now. I will not vote Labour while Corbyn leads the party, but I do think that he has shown it is possible to run a campaign and get a hearing without kow-towing to the right press. We will see what the result will be - I still cannot see beyond a big Tory win - but things don't look so bleak for Labour as they did at the start of the campaign. There is a way back.
Thanks.
Corbyn has been able to tap into many justified grievances - irresponsible capitalism, inter-generational unfairness, the lack of hope - which the establishment politicians have ignored or tolerated for over a decade.
What handicaps Labour is that these issues are concentrated among Labour voters and in Labour areas.
But I see no reason why these issues wont continue to grow with consequent electoral effects unless action is taken - falling home ownership among the young is already crippling the Conservatives in many urban areas.
I also think a Tory majority of 50 to 100 might see May compromise a bit with the EU, well over 100 would see hard Brexit go full steam ahead, barely any majority or a hung parliament and soft Brexit becomes more likely
I still have a sneaking suspicion that people have read this wrong and the reason she wants a very large majority is to push through a soft Brexit. There are extremists at both ends of the party but I suspect she could take the majority middle ground of her MPs with her whichever way she went and there is no reason to automatically assume that means hard Brexit.
Perhaps someone should tell UKIP and Brexit supporters that May can't be trusted to deliver what they want. They should vote UKIP.
The PM has navigated Brexit through the courts, both houses and now signed Article50, I think they’ll put their faith in her for a little longer.
Meanwhile, I hear the Remainers trust in Tim Farron is going spiffingly well...
Still 2 weeks to go, and May's stock is falling fast. Watch the Tories panic, turn nasty, and convince more people that she is not to be trusted.
Time will tell, but there’s certainly a whiff of panic and nastiness about your post.
LOOL. PB Tories don't like it up em
Panic everywhere from te hfrothers, pant wetting reaches fllod stage as their idol of clay melts in the sun
It's up to the public. Always is. If they vote in Jezza then, just as with Brexit, it will be the less well off that suffer most while the better off will cope.
I'm not pant wetting; I just think it a shame that people who can least afford it will be affected most. It's the waste that is the most egregious.
Corbyn will be no worse than May. At least he has a semblance of a heart left. May has proven she is a scheming self interested duplicitious leader who cannot be trusted on anything.
May has shown she is utterly inept and not able to handle any kind of pressure. Her cabinet is devoid of talent. The idea that she is storing and stable has been blown out of the water. Fallon on Channel 4 Nerws last night - supposedly one of the better Tory performers - was humiliated. All May offers is not being Corbyn. That will win her a decent majority. Then she actually has to start delivering. And that is when the fun will begin.
I didn't have the chance to watch C4 but it sounds like a classic "gotcha" question.
How does laughing at a politician for being a politician progress matters?
People have consistently underestimated Corbyn: both outside his party and inside. He's proven remarkably resilient, and now we're seeing the same in this election campaign.
Leaving aside his many negative attributes, his mettle's impressive. So far, May's hasn't been.
He's very relaxed, and I think he really enjoys the campaign. May does not. Not sure how that translates into competence for running the country though.
I think there's a feedback loop.
Even if he loses (which he will) he has demonstrated to many that a hard left approach can be popular. It will make it very difficult for the Blairites to "take back control"
Morning all,
Indeed. If Labour don't win then they are going to be in an awful situation after this campaign - Corbyn won't be going anywhere and they will have done well enough to deflect the critics.
If Corbyn stays on and May struggles to deliver on her promises, we all know what is likely to happen next.
Are you still predicting a split in Labour ?
That looks a lot less likely now. I will not vote Labour while Corbyn leads the party, but I do think that he has shown it is possible to run a campaign and get a hearing without kow-towing to the right press. We will see what the result will be - I still cannot see beyond a big Tory win - but things don't look so bleak for Labour as they did at the start of the campaign. There is a way back.
The one heartening thing about this campaign so far is that there is at least space for a radical viewpoint and he's getting a hearing despite the best efforts of the tabloids. Indeed as print circulation drops away, perhaps this is the election when the tabloids finally lose their influence? Which would be a very good thing.
Exactly - all Labour leaders before Corbyn have lived in fear of being monstered by the right wing press, and with some justification. That fear paralysed Ed Miliband for five years and all Corbyn's opponents in the 2015 leadership contest. They watched every word, terrified of being put on the front page of the Daily Mail with a negative headline (much like Mrs May, of course). They still got the monstering. Corbyn does too, but the big difference is that he does not care. The power of the press is certainly declining, but the Brexit referendum has also changed things hugely, as has May's embrace of the state.
Doing a bit of number-crunching, and comparing "favourable" ratings for the parties to top line voting intentions, think Yougov would have had Con and Lab on 40% apiece on Monday.
Would anyone attend a dinner where Theresa May was guest speaker?
I'd pay not to go to one where Corbyn was.
An example of the enthusiasm gap, tories don't really like may they just want to stop corbyn. She's another John Major, will win the election, but her negatives will drop like a stone and the tory party will be kicked out in 2022 because she has no policies to deal with the debt and the parliamentary party will full of loads of washed up mps that refuse to stand down for the benefit of their communities.
I agree with the comments that the Labour manifesto is effectively an uncosted wish list and Corbyn would be a hopeless PM. It's a struggle for me even put an X in the box beside the candidates name.
But I am also starting to think that Corbyn has possibly saved the party from oblivion, and the conservative manifesto itself is evidence that -at least economically - he has moved the centre ground of British politics to the left. Corbyn and Brexit have facillitated a paradigm shift away from neoliberalism and the legacy of Thatcherism. There is a lot of hopelessness in this country. Brutal employment laws. No job security. No access to the housing market. Lots and lots of people just about making ends meet. This probably applies for the majority of working age people in the town I live in. And this is contrasted with a relaxed attitude for far too long about wealth and the entitlement of a minority. Corbyn is wrong on many things, particularly national security, but he gives people hope in the way that no-one from the moderate wing of the labour party can. As such, he has proved his point.
I believe that the tories will win the election, handsomely. But I don't think its the end of the road at all for Labour.
I agree with you. I also think sensible Labour moderates will be learning lessons about not being afraid of the power of the right wing press - that is the really valuable lesson that Corbyn has taught. The Tories have accepted the notion of the state as a powerful force for good. For a Labour leader without Corbyn's past and an ability to see beyond the comfort zone, that is a powerful positive; as is the fact that the Tories really aren't very good.
It sounds peverse, but I genuinely fear a Labour win, as unlikely as it is. In the long run it is better to have the Tories governing from the centre being opposed from the left, than having a hopeless PM elected on an undeliverable left wing manifesto. This would lead to economic chaos, and would embolden the hard right forces in the Tory party, who would win at the first opportunity as they always do. Its a really difficult one.
That looks a lot less likely now. I will not vote Labour while Corbyn leads the party, but I do think that he has shown it is possible to run a campaign and get a hearing without kow-towing to the right press. We will see what the result will be - I still cannot see beyond a big Tory win - but things don't look so bleak for Labour as they did at the start of the campaign. There is a way back.
That's the problem. Labour MPs still can't support Corbyn as leader. They are not standing on his manifesto, they are standing against it in many cases. That's not a formula for government
Labour aren't going to be in government. Their problem is that if they do reasonably well it will be more difficult to get rid of Corbyn.
At heart I am a Lib Dem. Living in what was then a Lab/Con marginal I voted Tory in 2015, simply to avoid Labour winning, being worried about their then economic polices. However I cannot vote for this government, I find myself tending to disagree with many things they say and do, including the calling of this election. I also have grave doubts over May's competence. Could I vote Labour, with their nationalisation and expenditure plans, obviously not, do not want the IMF in again, so my postal went Lib Dem, it might help them save their deposit. PS have also re-joined them a party member despite anticipating them falling to about 5 MPs. What was that you said about blind loyalty!!!
From the limited attention I have given it, it looks like the Lib Dems have the best manifesto with what looks like sensible and imaginative proposals on education and social care. Of course no-one has paid the slightest attention to it beyond the second referendum and legislation of cannabis.
Why should anyone in the centre vote for a Tory government which has cut 25% from the Police budget since 2010 ?
Austerity has to go. Let normality return.
Government debt has risen by over a trillion quid in the last decade.
How can that be described as 'austerity' ?
And what does 'let normality return' mean fiscally ?
We will find out what 'austerity' means if Corbyn wins. There'll be a bond upswing and it'll cost the government a lot more to fund the existing deficit never mind free owls, microwaves, electricity and degrees for all.
And we really would see the City more to Frankfurt, the car factories shut down, overseas investment end and the stock market crash.
I rather suspect a minority Corbyn government would be brought down within months, possibly weeks.
"And we really would see the City more to Frankfurt, the car factories shut down, overseas investment end and the stock market crash."
Why won't these things happen if we leave the EU without a Brexit deal?
Maybe they would and maybe they wouldn't and maybe they'll be a Brexit deal and maybe there wont.
Of course all those things were meant to happen on a Leave vote alone but didn't. And then when A50 was triggered but didn't.
For that matter all those things were meant to happen if the UK left the ERM in 1992 or failed to join the Euro in 1999.
So currently we're running at 0/4 (at least) on the 'doom and disaster will happen if we don't do what Brussels wants' predictions.
Prime Minister Corbyn is, I suspect, is a scenario from an entirely different book.
If you could point out some countries where Corbyn's policies have been implemented they might give an idea as to what would happen in this country. As I remember Venezuela was much admired among the Corbynistas.
I don't support Corbyn; I don't support a Brexit with no deal. I want a strong and stable UK.
I know you do.
Sadly Britain has been badly served by its politicians who have profligately bribed votes, ignored underlying problems and predicted disaster if they didn't get their own way.
After decades of crying wolf against each other Britain is now at risk from the genuine wolf Corbyn.
I thought they might mention Venezuela. And the Labour manifesto criticisms have been far too generic. Labour claims it will gain £49 billion (IFS say £40 billion) in taxes through taking a little more from the fats cats and Corporation tax - what's not to like?
Those that don't learn from history are destined to repeat it. What happened when Hollande decided to soak the rich and pay for his spending programs by taxing les gros bonnet until the pips squeaked ? Huge numbers of them moved to London! For an internationalist party, Labour has never understood this globalisation idea, and how when you try hammer groups of highly mobile businesses and high net worth individuals, they tend to bugger off!
Doing a bit of number-crunching, and comparing "favourable" ratings for the parties to top line voting intentions, think Yougov would have had Con and Lab on 40% apiece on Monday.
Let's not dwell in the past Sean!
Are you assisting the party today? Am just about to go canvassing...
Would anyone attend a dinner where Theresa May was guest speaker?
I'd pay not to go to one where Corbyn was.
An example of the enthusiasm gap, tories don't really like may they just want to stop corbyn. She's another John Major, will win the election, but her negatives will drop like a stone and the tory party will be kicked out in 2022 because she has no policies to deal with the debt and the parliamentary party will full of loads of washed up mps that refuse to stand down for the benefit of their communities.
Actually, I think Tories do like May (at least for the moment). Currently 39% have favourable views of the Conservatives, but she pulls their vote share upwards.
I also think a Tory majority of 50 to 100 might see May compromise a bit with the EU, well over 100 would see hard Brexit go full steam ahead, barely any majority or a hung parliament and soft Brexit becomes more likely
I still have a sneaking suspicion that people have read this wrong and the reason she wants a very large majority is to push through a soft Brexit. There are extremists at both ends of the party but I suspect she could take the majority middle ground of her MPs with her whichever way she went and there is no reason to automatically assume that means hard Brexit.
I think you're right that she wants to do as she pleases. But I'm not at all sure that she knows herself what she wants yet.
I agree with the comments that the Labour manifesto is effectively an uncosted wish list and Corbyn would be a hopeless PM. It's a struggle for me even put an X in the box beside the candidates name.
But I am also starting to think that Corbyn has possibly saved the party from oblivion, and the conservative manifesto itself is evidence that -at least economically - he has moved the centre ground of British politics to the left. Corbyn and Brexit have facillitated a paradigm shift away from neoliberalism and the legacy of Thatcherism. There is a lot of hopelessness in this country. Brutal employment laws. No job security. No access to the housing market. Lots and lots of people just about making ends meet. This probably applies for the majority of working age people in the town I live in. And this is contrasted with a relaxed attitude for far too long about wealth and the entitlement of a minority. Corbyn is wrong on many things, particularly national security, but he gives people hope in the way that no-one from the moderate wing of the labour party can. As such, he has proved his point.
I believe that the tories will win the election, handsomely. But I don't think its the end of the road at all for Labour.
I agree with you. I also think sensible Labour moderates will be learning lessons about not being afraid of the power of the right wing press - that is the really valuable lesson that Corbyn has taught. The Tories have accepted the notion of the state as a powerful force for good. For a Labour leader without Corbyn's past and an ability to see beyond the comfort zone, that is a powerful positive; as is the fact that the Tories really aren't very good.
It sounds peverse, but I genuinely fear a Labour win, as unlikely as it is. In the long run it is better to have the Tories governing from the centre being opposed from the left, than having a hopeless PM elected on an undeliverable left wing manifesto. This would lead to economic chaos, and would embolden the hard right forces in the Tory party, who would win at the first opportunity as they always do. Its a really difficult one.
Again, I agree. I genuinely don't know whether I can vote on 8th June. I just do not see a choice and my Tory MP is going to win whatever I do.
There was considerable worldwide support for the NATO led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. International goodwill that was squandered in Iraq
bin Laden's an interesting example. Afghanistan is an odd place for a Saudi national to have got 'started', isn't it? Or perhaps he was radicalised elsewhere and went looking for a fight. And if that's the case, *any* intervention in *any* Muslim land, however valid, would lead to problems.
The final endpoint of your position is that we end up leaving all lands Muslim extremists call their own to them (even including places like much of Spain), and not to react when they preform heinous acts inside 'their' lands, or outside to us.
We can't go around not pandering to extremists, because they will always want more.
Britain (and other Western countries) spent much of the Sixties to Eighties propping up secular right wing dictatorships across the newly decolonised world. We were not bothered by Hussain, Assad, the Shah or Nasser, except to use them in proxies in the Cold war. There was little attempt to foster democracy and freedom. As such the Islamists like the Muslim Brotherhood thrived as the opposition.
Pakistan in the Eighties spent more than half its government budget on its military, abandoning education to the madrassas. These became the only place for a poor child to get an education. We are now seeing the consequences of that neglect. The same happens all over MENA, where the Islamists are often the sole education, sole welfare, sole law and order and sole social care in these countries. The Islamist parties are particularly strong in opposing corruption.
People there often want these positive aspects of Islamist politics, and tolerate the violent aspects as the price. Aspirations of poor people in developing countries are surprisingly similar to our own, and the sense of frustration that comes from those opportunities being stifled by corrupt Western supported elites becomes manifest.
It is soft power that builds peace, not bombing. Economic development, particularly via women drives social progress. The education of women is the best value for money of any development spend.
+1
The point JJ and his ilk miss is that the argument is not that western intervention created Islamic terrorism; we know it has existed for a long time and that there would be such people sitting in desert caves with or without our military involvement. What we didn't have before, and do now, is the active involvement of a small minority of our own Muslim youth, who either travel out there to sign up or launch terrorist attacks at home. It is the fringe attraction of Islamism at home that has been the consequence of Iraq, not the terrorists in their desert caves.
Doing a bit of number-crunching, and comparing "favourable" ratings for the parties to top line voting intentions, think Yougov would have had Con and Lab on 40% apiece on Monday.
Let's not dwell in the past Sean!
Are you assisting the party today? Am just about to go canvassing...
I also think a Tory majority of 50 to 100 might see May compromise a bit with the EU, well over 100 would see hard Brexit go full steam ahead, barely any majority or a hung parliament and soft Brexit becomes more likely
I still have a sneaking suspicion that people have read this wrong and the reason she wants a very large majority is to push through a soft Brexit. There are extremists at both ends of the party but I suspect she could take the majority middle ground of her MPs with her whichever way she went and there is no reason to automatically assume that means hard Brexit.
She wants a big majority so she can do what she wants without reference to other people. The problem is that Brexit is something she can't control and involves massive compromises. I don't get the impression Theresa May is enjoying Brexit. She is doing a lot of displacement activity, including holding this election.
Perhaps someone should tell UKIP and Brexit supporters that May can't be trusted to deliver what they want. They should vote UKIP.
The PM has navigated Brexit through the courts, both houses and now signed Article50, I think they’ll put their faith in her for a little longer.
Meanwhile, I hear the Remainers trust in Tim Farron is going spiffingly well...
Still 2 weeks to go, and May's stock is falling fast. Watch the Tories panic, turn nasty, and convince more people that she is not to be trusted.
Time will tell, but there’s certainly a whiff of panic and nastiness about your post.
LOOL. PB Tories don't like it up em
Panic everywhere from te hfrothers, pant wetting reaches fllod stage as their idol of clay melts in the sun
It's up to the public. Always is. If they vote in Jezza then, just as with Brexit, it will be the less well off that suffer most while the better off will cope.
I'm not pant wetting; I just think it a shame that people who can least afford it will be affected most. It's the waste that is the most egregious.
Corbyn will be no worse than May. At least he has a semblance of a heart left. May has proven she is a scheming self interested duplicitious leader who cannot be trusted on anything.
May has shown she is utterly inept and not able to handle any kind of pressure. Her cabinet is devoid of talent. The idea that she is storing and stable has been blown out of the water. Fallon on Channel 4 Nerws last night - supposedly one of the better Tory performers - was humiliated. All May offers is not being Corbyn. That will win her a decent majority. Then she actually has to start delivering. And that is when the fun will begin.
I didn't have the chance to watch C4 but it sounds like a classic "gotcha" question.
How does laughing at a politician for being a politician progress matters?
I am not laughing at him. It scares the life out of me that he is considered one of the Tories' better performers.
That looks a lot less likely now. I will not vote Labour while Corbyn leads the party, but I do think that he has shown it is possible to run a campaign and get a hearing without kow-towing to the right press. We will see what the result will be - I still cannot see beyond a big Tory win - but things don't look so bleak for Labour as they did at the start of the campaign. There is a way back.
That's the problem. Labour MPs still can't support Corbyn as leader. They are not standing on his manifesto, they are standing against it in many cases. That's not a formula for government
They are spineless makeweights who will support Corbyn if he wins
Long time lurker here, so here's my two penneth worth.
1. Risk that UKIP to Tory vote is piling up in Tory safe seats. 2. Likewise 2015 non voters are piling up in v safe Labour seats/big cities 3. Lib Dems are being very targeted in their campaigning, but still being downweighted in some polls (e.g. YouGov). 4. No sense as to what is happening in marginals as I don't live in one.
On terrorism, there are political risks for Labour and Tories from Manchester. Labour for Jezza's previous history on terrorism; Tories for the fact that children have died or been maimed on their watch. The latter risk is greater as it emerges the bomber was known to the authorities. We all accept that it is hard to prevent every terror attack, but will some wonder if Govt has done everything possible to keep citizens safe. Police cuts resonate. It will swing votes both ways to some degree, but not convinced hugely. But the Daily Mail below the line comments are not pro-Tory and some sympathy out there for Corbyn's foreign policy stance.
That said, still think the winter fuel payments and social care issues are more decisive. The campaign halted on Monday with those things hanging in the air as postal votes are returned. TMay was awful with Andrew Neil on Monday night.
The completely anecdotal conversation with my 75 year old Dad (Con voter in Sussex) today was very angry about winter fuel and less angry about the uncertainty of the social care 'consultation' announced in TMay's u-turn. Definitely not now voting Tory, although didn't know what to vote instead. So, I think Tory core vote has been damaged. WFA and social care even exercised my non-political work colleagues who were suddenly Tory critical, talk about no party of aspiration anymore. Worried about inheritance. Manchester events not mentioned. People just getting on with their daily lives, quietly angry, but thankful it didn't happen to me. Don't think this election is all about Brexit.
I've bet on a hung Parliament and a Labour seat band 200-229. Expect to lose and May to win anyway.
I agree with the comments that the Labour manifesto is effectively an uncosted wish list and Corbyn would be a hopeless PM. It's a struggle for me even put an X in the box beside the candidates name.
But I am also starting to think that Corbyn has possibly saved the party from oblivion, and the conservative manifesto itself is evidence that -at least economically - he has moved the centre ground of British politics to the left. Corbyn and Brexit have facillitated a paradigm shift away from neoliberalism and the legacy of Thatcherism. There is a lot of hopelessness in this country. Brutal employment laws. No job security. No access to the housing market. Lots and lots of people just about making ends meet. This probably applies for the majority of working age people in the town I live in. And this is contrasted with a relaxed attitude for far too long about wealth and the entitlement of a minority. Corbyn is wrong on many things, particularly national security, but he gives people hope in the way that no-one from the moderate wing of the labour party can. As such, he has proved his point.
I believe that the tories will win the election, handsomely. But I don't think its the end of the road at all for Labour.
I agree with you. I also think sensible Labour moderates will be learning lessons about not being afraid of the power of the right wing press - that is the really valuable lesson that Corbyn has taught. The Tories have accepted the notion of the state as a powerful force for good. For a Labour leader without Corbyn's past and an ability to see beyond the comfort zone, that is a powerful positive; as is the fact that the Tories really aren't very good.
It sounds peverse, but I genuinely fear a Labour win, as unlikely as it is. In the long run it is better to have the Tories governing from the centre being opposed from the left, than having a hopeless PM elected on an undeliverable left wing manifesto. This would lead to economic chaos, and would embolden the hard right forces in the Tory party, who would win at the first opportunity as they always do. Its a really difficult one.
Again, I agree. I genuinely don't know whether I can vote on 8th June. I just do not see a choice and my Tory MP is going to win whatever I do.
If realistically your vote can't effect the outcome then you are free to make a personal choice of best, or least worst. This isn't an election to stand aside. A LibDem or Green vote?
Long time lurker here, so here's my two penneth worth.
1. Risk that UKIP to Tory vote is piling up in Tory safe seats. 2. Likewise 2015 non voters are piling up in v safe Labour seats/big cities 3. Lib Dems are being very targeted in their campaigning, but still being downweighted in some polls (e.g. YouGov). 4. No sense as to what is happening in marginals as I don't live in one.
On terrorism, there are political risks for Labour and Tories from Manchester. Labour for Jezza's previous history on terrorism; Tories for the fact that children have died or been maimed on their watch. The latter risk is greater as it emerges the bomber was known to the authorities. We all accept that it is hard to prevent every terror attack, but will some wonder if Govt has done everything possible to keep citizens safe. Police cuts resonate. It will swing votes both ways to some degree, but not convinced hugely. But the Daily Mail below the line comments are not pro-Tory and some sympathy out there for Corbyn's foreign policy stance.
That said, still think the winter fuel payments and social care issues are more decisive. The campaign halted on Monday with those things hanging in the air as postal votes are returned. TMay was awful with Andrew Neil on Monday night.
The completely anecdotal conversation with my 75 year old Dad (Con voter in Sussex) today was very angry about winter fuel and less angry about the uncertainty of the social care 'consultation' announced in TMay's u-turn. Definitely not now voting Tory, although didn't know what to vote instead. So, I think Tory core vote has been damaged. WFA and social care even exercised my non-political work colleagues who were suddenly Tory critical, talk about no party of aspiration anymore. Worried about inheritance. Manchester events not mentioned. People just getting on with their daily lives, quietly angry, but thankful it didn't happen to me. Don't think this election is all about Brexit.
I've bet on a hung Parliament and a Labour seat band 200-229. Expect to lose and May to win anyway.
Welcome!
Interesting points, particularly about the under-reported salience of WFA v care
I agree with the comments that the Labour manifesto is effectively an uncosted wish list and Corbyn would be a hopeless PM. It's a struggle for me even put an X in the box beside the candidates name.
But I am also starting to think that Corbyn has possibly saved the party from oblivion, and the conservative manifesto itself is evidence that -at least economically - he has moved the centre ground of British politics to the left. Corbyn and Brexit have facillitated a paradigm shift away from neoliberalism and the legacy of Thatcherism. There is a lot of hopelessness in this country. Brutal employment laws. No job security. No access to the housing market. Lots and lots of people just about making ends meet. This probably applies for the majority of working age people in the town I live in. And this is contrasted with a relaxed attitude for far too long about wealth and the entitlement of a minority. Corbyn is wrong on many things, particularly national security, but he gives people hope in the way that no-one from the moderate wing of the labour party can. As such, he has proved his point.
I believe that the tories will win the election, handsomely. But I don't think its the end of the road at all for Labour.
I agree with you. I also think sensible Labour moderates will be learning lessons about not being afraid of the power of the right wing press - that is the really valuable lesson that Corbyn has taught. The Tories have accepted the notion of the state as a powerful force for good. For a Labour leader without Corbyn's past and an ability to see beyond the comfort zone, that is a powerful positive; as is the fact that the Tories really aren't very good.
It sounds peverse, but I genuinely fear a Labour win, as unlikely as it is. In the long run it is better to have the Tories governing from the centre being opposed from the left, than having a hopeless PM elected on an undeliverable left wing manifesto. This would lead to economic chaos, and would embolden the hard right forces in the Tory party, who would win at the first opportunity as they always do. Its a really difficult one.
Again, I agree. I genuinely don't know whether I can vote on 8th June. I just do not see a choice and my Tory MP is going to win whatever I do.
If realistically your vote can't effect the outcome then you are free to make a personal choice of best, or least worst. This isn't an election to stand aside. A LibDem or Green vote?
The point JJ and his ilk miss is that the argument is not that western intervention created Islamic terrorism; we know it has existed for a long time and that there would be such people sitting in desert caves with or without our military involvement. What we didn't have before, and do now, is the active involvement of a small minority of our own Muslim youth, who either travel out there to sign up or launch terrorist attacks at home. It is the fringe attraction of Islamism at home that has been the consequence of Iraq, not the terrorists in their desert caves.
And my ilk?
LOL.
Your post seems to be an argument against mass immigration from majority-Muslim countries rather than anything to do with the perils of intervention. Is that what you meant?
Afghanistan, Iraq et al have undoubtedly been part of the attraction of Islamic fundamentalism here in the UK. But it's only part of the story: the centuries-old chasm between Sunni and Shia (yet alone the smaller sects), foreign funding and immigration has worsened the problem, as have a lack of perceived opportunities and ostracism in those communities here in the UK.
That looks a lot less likely now. I will not vote Labour while Corbyn leads the party, but I do think that he has shown it is possible to run a campaign and get a hearing without kow-towing to the right press. We will see what the result will be - I still cannot see beyond a big Tory win - but things don't look so bleak for Labour as they did at the start of the campaign. There is a way back.
That's the problem. Labour MPs still can't support Corbyn as leader. They are not standing on his manifesto, they are standing against it in many cases. That's not a formula for government
They are spineless makeweights who will support Corbyn if he wins
Yes, the irony for Wes Streeting and his mates is that their only chance of saving their seats now is to be proved utterly wrong about both their party and their leader!
Yes, it is now clear that May is as much fun as a fart at a cocktail party. Her hideaway campaigning and inane, trite phraseology reveal the dullard - a curtain twitching, meddling, illiberal provincialist of small-town mind and few ideas.
A 20,000 Labour majority. I can't stand Jezza, I think the Greens are bonkers and totally unsuited to grown-up politics, Farron is anti-democratic, Ukip would be pointless, and I'm too tribal to vote Tory - and even if I wasn't, their campaign has been shite. Finally, there's no raving loony party candidate
I agree with you. I also think sensible Labour moderates will be learning lessons about not being afraid of the power of the right wing press - that is the really valuable lesson that Corbyn has taught. The Tories have accepted the notion of the state as a powerful force for good. For a Labour leader without Corbyn's past and an ability to see beyond the comfort zone, that is a powerful positive; as is the fact that the Tories really aren't very good.
It sounds peverse, but I genuinely fear a Labour win, as unlikely as it is. In the long run it is better to have the Tories governing from the centre being opposed from the left, than having a hopeless PM elected on an undeliverable left wing manifesto. This would lead to economic chaos, and would embolden the hard right forces in the Tory party, who would win at the first opportunity as they always do. Its a really difficult one.
Again, I agree. I genuinely don't know whether I can vote on 8th June. I just do not see a choice and my Tory MP is going to win whatever I do.
If realistically your vote can't effect the outcome then you are free to make a personal choice of best, or least worst. This isn't an election to stand aside. A LibDem or Green vote?
Actually, I'm coming to the conclusion that this might well be an election to stand aside from. I'm not going to endorse either Jeremy Corbyn or car crash Brexit. The Lib Dems have done their level best to lose my vote.
Why should I give an indication of support to any of them?
I also think a Tory majority of 50 to 100 might see May compromise a bit with the EU, well over 100 would see hard Brexit go full steam ahead, barely any majority or a hung parliament and soft Brexit becomes more likely
I still have a sneaking suspicion that people have read this wrong and the reason she wants a very large majority is to push through a soft Brexit. There are extremists at both ends of the party but I suspect she could take the majority middle ground of her MPs with her whichever way she went and there is no reason to automatically assume that means hard Brexit.
I think you're right that she wants to do as she pleases. But I'm not at all sure that she knows herself what she wants yet.
I agree. You took the words from my mouth/keyboard/nib.
Long time lurker here, so here's my two penneth worth.
1. Risk that UKIP to Tory vote is piling up in Tory safe seats. 2. Likewise 2015 non voters are piling up in v safe Labour seats/big cities 3. Lib Dems are being very targeted in their campaigning, but still being downweighted in some polls (e.g. YouGov). 4. No sense as to what is happening in marginals as I don't live in one.
On terrorism, there are political risks for Labour and Tories from Manchester. Labour for Jezza's previous history on terrorism; Tories for the fact that children have died or been maimed on their watch. The latter risk is greater as it emerges the bomber was known to the authorities. We all accept that it is hard to prevent every terror attack, but will some wonder if Govt has done everything possible to keep citizens safe. Police cuts resonate. It will swing votes both ways to some degree, but not convinced hugely. But the Daily Mail below the line comments are not pro-Tory and some sympathy out there for Corbyn's foreign policy stance.
That said, still think the winter fuel payments and social care issues are more decisive. The campaign halted on Monday with those things hanging in the air as postal votes are returned. TMay was awful with Andrew Neil on Monday night.
The completely anecdotal conversation with my 75 year old Dad (Con voter in Sussex) today was very angry about winter fuel and less angry about the uncertainty of the social care 'consultation' announced in TMay's u-turn. Definitely not now voting Tory, although didn't know what to vote instead. So, I think Tory core vote has been damaged. WFA and social care even exercised my non-political work colleagues who were suddenly Tory critical, talk about no party of aspiration anymore. Worried about inheritance. Manchester events not mentioned. People just getting on with their daily lives, quietly angry, but thankful it didn't happen to me. Don't think this election is all about Brexit.
I've bet on a hung Parliament and a Labour seat band 200-229. Expect to lose and May to win anyway.
Welcome.
To add to the Saturday morning anecdotes:
A family member (staunch Tory, sometimes votes Green for parish council) e-mailed me the day after the May u-turn and interview: she lied, he said. A flat, out and out set of lies. There has been a change to social care. He was incandescent.
People have consistently underestimated Corbyn: both outside his party and inside. He's proven remarkably resilient, and now we're seeing the same in this election campaign.
Leaving aside his many negative attributes, his mettle's impressive. So far, May's hasn't been.
He's very relaxed, and I think he really enjoys the campaign. May does not. Not sure how that translates into competence for running the country though.
It doesn't, especially in the hands of an ideologue like Corbyn.
Yet I cannot help but admire his mettle. Hes beaten off lots of competitors.
I wonder if May would keep the same calm persona under constant attack from the MSM and many on her own side.Early indications suggest not.
Being under attack is meat & drink to the hard left. Their whole world view is predicated on a war footing. The class war is a real, ongoing thing for them. They are actually in it, not preaching it for a mythical future. They can only breathe deeply in its foetid air. 'Attacks? Meh.'
As for attacks like today's in the Mail, the young will dismiss it as the irrelevant bellyaching of the old ('It's over, move on') while the hard left will meh it. But there are millions like me who know slippery Mister Corbyn of old. And his mendacious, murderous friends. And his true colours and intentions. Nothing he can promise (ha) will wipe all that away.
Would anyone attend a dinner where Theresa May was guest speaker?
I'd pay not to go to one where Corbyn was.
An example of the enthusiasm gap, tories don't really like may they just want to stop corbyn. She's another John Major, will win the election, but her negatives will drop like a stone and the tory party will be kicked out in 2022 because she has no policies to deal with the debt and the parliamentary party will full of loads of washed up mps that refuse to stand down for the benefit of their communities.
Actually, I think Tories do like May (at least for the moment). Currently 39% have favourable views of the Conservatives, but she pulls their vote share upwards.
What do you like about her? She has no charisma compared to Thatcher, Gove, Johnson, Redwood even Rees-Mogg.
I watched HIGNFU Last night and the clip they showed of May was deeply depressing when asked three times about how she would get money into the NHS she refused to answer it and made her look robotic and an idiot. I have sunday roast every week with the family (12 people, grandparents, parents and children all over 21, all vote conservative except one) and we all are less enthusiastic about the direction of the conservative party. The manifesto was a disgrace and all of Mays hacks need to stick to dealing with Maidenhead issues.
There is no policy to tackling the debt and that is quite frankly a disgrace. Anyone who saves money or lives within a budget must be shocked at this tory party strategy of paying the debt by 2025. If I couldn't clear my credit card every month I would spend less to pay more, this has totally disappeared since theresa may has become leader. At least, Cameron and Osborne tackled the deficit which once cleared would bring down the debt. May has no strategy. She was a terrible home secretary - Immigration went up every year under her watch and she has been on the wrong side of every major public policy decision. She has bad judgement because she's a career politician and this is not coming from me, but the very people that worked for members of camerons cabinet.
The point JJ and his ilk miss is that the argument is not that western intervention created Islamic terrorism; we know it has existed for a long time and that there would be such people sitting in desert caves with or without our military involvement. What we didn't have before, and do now, is the active involvement of a small minority of our own Muslim youth, who either travel out there to sign up or launch terrorist attacks at home. It is the fringe attraction of Islamism at home that has been the consequence of Iraq, not the terrorists in their desert caves.
And my ilk?
LOL.
Your post seems to be an argument against mass immigration from majority-Muslim countries rather than anything to do with the perils of intervention. Is that what you meant?
Afghanistan, Iraq et al have undoubtedly been part of the attraction of Islamic fundamentalism here in the UK. But it's only part of the story: the centuries-old chasm between Sunni and Shia (yet alone the smaller sects), foreign funding and immigration has worsened the problem, as have a lack of perceived opportunities and ostracism in those communities here in the UK.
I didn't mean anything unduly critical by 'ilk', sorry
I agree with you on the last point. The UK has done better on security than France and Belgium precisely because our Muslim communities are less excluded and so we have better intelligence and co-operation (two separate Muslims phoned in reports about Abedi). Which is why the "now we must take on Islam" posts from SeanT and Cyclefree represent a counter-productive and indeed very dangerous dead end.
How on earth anyone ANYWHERE near the centre ground could remotely consider voting for a party lead by Corbyn, McDonnell & Abbott is utterly beyond me.
Can any Corbyn apologist remind me what part of Germany's interventionist foreign policy lead to a terrorist mowing down 12 souls in Berlin last christmas ?
Why should anyone in the centre vote for a Tory government which has cut 25% from the Police budget since 2010 ?
Austerity has to go. Let normality return.
Government debt has risen by over a trillion quid in the last decade.
How can that be described as 'austerity' ?
And what does 'let normality return' mean fiscally ?
We will find out what 'austerity' means if Corbyn wins. There'll be a bond upswing and it'll cost the government a lot more to fund the existing deficit never mind free owls, microwaves, electricity and degrees for all.
And we really would see the City more to Frankfurt, the car factories shut down, overseas investment end and the stock market crash.
I rather suspect a minority Corbyn government would be brought down within months, possibly weeks.
"And we really would see the City more to Frankfurt, the car factories shut down, overseas investment end and the stock market crash."
Why won't these things happen if we leave the EU without a Brexit deal?
Maybe they would and maybe they wouldn't and maybe they'll be a Brexit deal and maybe there wont.
Of course all those things were meant to happen on a Leave vote alone but didn't. And then when A50 was triggered but didn't.
For that matter all those things were meant to happen if the UK left the ERM in 1992 or failed to join the Euro in 1999.
So currently we're running at 0/4 (at least) on the 'doom and disaster will happen if we don't do what Brussels wants' predictions.
Prime Minister Corbyn is, I suspect, is a scenario from an entirely different book.
If you could point out some countries where Corbyn's policies have been implemented they might give an idea as to what would happen in this country. As I remember Venezuela was much admired among the Corbynistas.
I don't support Corbyn; I don't support a Brexit with no deal. I want a strong and stable UK.
I have come to the view that even the useless Corbyn would be better than the risible May.
Long time lurker here, so here's my two penneth worth.
1. Risk that UKIP to Tory vote is piling up in Tory safe seats. 2. Likewise 2015 non voters are piling up in v safe Labour seats/big cities 3. Lib Dems are being very targeted in their campaigning, but still being downweighted in some polls (e.g. YouGov). 4. No sense as to what is happening in marginals as I don't live in one.
On terrorism, there are political risks for Labour and Tories from Manchester. Labour for Jezza's previous history on terrorism; Tories for the fact that children have died or been maimed on their watch. The latter risk is greater as it emerges the bomber was known to the authorities. We all accept that it is hard to prevent every terror attack, but will some wonder if Govt has done everything possible to keep citizens safe. Police cuts resonate. It will swing votes both ways to some degree, but not convinced hugely. But the Daily Mail below the line comments are not pro-Tory and some sympathy out there for Corbyn's foreign policy stance.
That said, still think the winter fuel payments and social care issues are more decisive. The campaign halted on Monday with those things hanging in the air as postal votes are returned. TMay was awful with Andrew Neil on Monday night.
The completely anecdotal conversation with my 75 year old Dad (Con voter in Sussex) today was very angry about winter fuel and less angry about the uncertainty of the social care 'consultation' announced in TMay's u-turn. Definitely not now voting Tory, although didn't know what to vote instead. So, I think Tory core vote has been damaged. WFA and social care even exercised my non-political work colleagues who were suddenly Tory critical, talk about no party of aspiration anymore. Worried about inheritance. Manchester events not mentioned. People just getting on with their daily lives, quietly angry, but thankful it didn't happen to me. Don't think this election is all about Brexit.
I've bet on a hung Parliament and a Labour seat band 200-229. Expect to lose and May to win anyway.
UKIP voters are splitting about 5/1 to the Conservatives. A lot of them are in marginal seats.
The Green vote has switched en masse to Labour, along with left wing Lib Dems. These voters are mostly not in marginal seats, but in big urban areas or university seats.
I agree with the comments that the Labour manifesto is effectively an uncosted wish list and Corbyn would be a hopeless PM. It's a struggle for me even put an X in the box beside the candidates name.
But I am also starting to think that Corbyn has possibly saved the party from oblivion, and the conservative manifesto itself is evidence that -at least economically - he has moved the centre ground of British politics to the left. Corbyn and Brexit have facillitated a paradigm shift away from neoliberalism and the legacy of Thatcherism. There is a lot of hopelessness in this country. Brutal employment laws. No job security. No access to the housing market. Lots and lots of people just about making ends meet. This probably applies for the majority of working age people in the town I live in. And this is contrasted with a relaxed attitude for far too long about wealth and the entitlement of a minority. Corbyn is wrong on many things, particularly national security, but he gives people hope in the way that no-one from the moderate wing of the labour party can. As such, he has proved his point.
I believe that the tories will win the election, handsomely. But I don't think its the end of the road at all for Labour.
I agree with you. I also think sensible Labour moderates will be learning lessons about not being afraid of the power of the right wing press - that is the really valuable lesson that Corbyn has taught. The Tories have accepted the notion of the state as a powerful force for good. For a Labour leader without Corbyn's past and an ability to see beyond the comfort zone, that is a powerful positive; as is the fact that the Tories really aren't very good.
It sounds peverse, but I genuinely fear a Labour win, as unlikely as it is. In the long run it is better to have the Tories governing from the centre being opposed from the left, than having a hopeless PM elected on an undeliverable left wing manifesto. This would lead to economic chaos, and would embolden the hard right forces in the Tory party, who would win at the first opportunity as they always do. Its a really difficult one.
Again, I agree. I genuinely don't know whether I can vote on 8th June. I just do not see a choice and my Tory MP is going to win whatever I do.
She wants to clear the way though for whatever that is. Her problem was that as was, with a majority of 13, between the bastards and the opposition she had no room to manoeuvre.
Would anyone attend a dinner where Theresa May was guest speaker?
I'd pay not to go to one where Corbyn was.
An example of the enthusiasm gap, tories don't really like may they just want to stop corbyn. She's another John Major, will win the election, but her negatives will drop like a stone and the tory party will be kicked out in 2022 because she has no policies to deal with the debt and the parliamentary party will full of loads of washed up mps that refuse to stand down for the benefit of their communities.
Actually, I think Tories do like May (at least for the moment). Currently 39% have favourable views of the Conservatives, but she pulls their vote share upwards.
What do you like about her? She has no charisma compared to Thatcher, Gove, Johnson, Redwood even Rees-Mogg.
I watched HIGNFU Last night and the clip they showed of May was deeply depressing when asked three times about how she would get money into the NHS she refused to answer it and made her look robotic and an idiot. I have sunday roast every week with the family (12 people, grandparents, parents and children all over 21, all vote conservative except one) and we all are less enthusiastic about the direction of the conservative party. The manifesto was a disgrace and all of Mays hacks need to stick to dealing with Maidenhead issues.
There is no policy to tackling the debt and that is quite frankly a disgrace. Anyone who saves money or lives within a budget must be shocked at this tory party strategy of paying the debt by 2025. If I couldn't clear my credit card every month I would spend less to pay more, this has totally disappeared since theresa may has become leader. At least, Cameron and Osborne tackled the deficit which once cleared would bring down the debt. May has no strategy. She was a terrible home secretary - Immigration went up every year under her watch and she has been on the wrong side of every major public policy decision. She has bad judgement because she's a career politician and this is not coming from me, but the very people that worked for members of camerons cabinet.
The absence of Thatcher's (and Gove, Johnson, Redwood & R-M) charisma sounds good to me....nevertheless you go on to make some good points!
That looks a lot less likely now. I will not vote Labour while Corbyn leads the party, but I do think that he has shown it is possible to run a campaign and get a hearing without kow-towing to the right press. We will see what the result will be - I still cannot see beyond a big Tory win - but things don't look so bleak for Labour as they did at the start of the campaign. There is a way back.
That's the problem. Labour MPs still can't support Corbyn as leader. They are not standing on his manifesto, they are standing against it in many cases. That's not a formula for government
They are spineless makeweights who will support Corbyn if he wins
Absolute rubbish! Those who resigned did so on principle. The ones who gave up their shadow cabinet seats did so because of the arbitrary nature of Hilary Benn's sacking and the fact they had witnessed at first hand how useless he was as an administrator and leader.
The only ones I have contempt for (and it's slight ) are those who rejoined the shadow cabinet immediately after the coup failed.
Long time lurker here, so here's my two penneth worth.
1. Risk that UKIP to Tory vote is piling up in Tory safe seats. 2. Likewise 2015 non voters are piling up in v safe Labour seats/big cities 3. Lib Dems are being very targeted in their campaigning, but still being downweighted in some polls (e.g. YouGov). 4. No sense as to what is happening in marginals as I don't live in one.
On terrorism, there are political risks for Labour and Tories from Manchester. Labour for Jezza's previous history on terrorism; Tories for the fact that children have died or been maimed on their watch. The latter risk is greater as it emerges the bomber was known to the authorities. We all accept that it is hard to prevent every terror attack, but will some wonder if Govt has done everything possible to keep citizens safe. Police cuts resonate. It will swing votes both ways to some degree, but not convinced hugely. But the Daily Mail below the line comments are not pro-Tory and some sympathy out there for Corbyn's foreign policy stance.
That said, still think the winter fuel payments and social care issues are more decisive. The campaign halted on Monday with those things hanging in the air as postal votes are returned. TMay was awful with Andrew Neil on Monday night.
The completely anecdotal conversation with my 75 year old Dad (Con voter in Sussex) today was very angry about winter fuel and less angry about the uncertainty of the social care 'consultation' announced in TMay's u-turn. Definitely not now voting Tory, although didn't know what to vote instead. So, I think Tory core vote has been damaged. WFA and social care even exercised my non-political work colleagues who were suddenly Tory critical, talk about no party of aspiration anymore. Worried about inheritance. Manchester events not mentioned. People just getting on with their daily lives, quietly angry, but thankful it didn't happen to me. Don't think this election is all about Brexit.
I've bet on a hung Parliament and a Labour seat band 200-229. Expect to lose and May to win anyway.
Welcome!
Interesting points, particularly about the under-reported salience of WFA v care
Why would you place bets you expect to lose?
You expect to lose most odds against bets but you still bet on them if you think the likelihood of them happening is better than the odds offered.
A 20,000 Labour majority. I can't stand Jezza, I think the Greens are bonkers and totally unsuited to grown-up politics, Farron is anti-democratic, Ukip would be pointless, and I'm too tribal to vote Tory - and even if I wasn't, their campaign has been shite. Finally, there's no raving loony party candidate
If you take out the party names from that, the logical conclusion is that "would be pointless" is the least worst.
The point JJ and his ilk miss is that the argument is not that western intervention created Islamic terrorism; we know it has existed for a long time and that there would be such people sitting in desert caves with or without our military involvement. What we didn't have before, and do now, is the active involvement of a small minority of our own Muslim youth, who either travel out there to sign up or launch terrorist attacks at home. It is the fringe attraction of Islamism at home that has been the consequence of Iraq, not the terrorists in their desert caves.
And my ilk?
LOL.
Your post seems to be an argument against mass immigration from majority-Muslim countries rather than anything to do with the perils of intervention. Is that what you meant?
Afghanistan, Iraq et al have undoubtedly been part of the attraction of Islamic fundamentalism here in the UK. But it's only part of the story: the centuries-old chasm between Sunni and Shia (yet alone the smaller sects), foreign funding and immigration has worsened the problem, as have a lack of perceived opportunities and ostracism in those communities here in the UK.
I didn't mean anything unduly critical by 'ilk', sorry
I agree with you on the last point. The UK has done better than France and Belgium precisely because our Muslim are communities are less excluded and so we have better intelligence and co-operation (two separate Muslims phoned in reports about Abedi). Which is why the "now we must take on Islam" posts from SeanT and Cyclefree represent a counter-productive and indeed very dangerous dead end.
Fary 'nuff. Pretty much agree with that. I would write more, but I've got to go out for a few drinkies.
It's fascinating if the Tory vote is stuttering in the wake of the social care/winter fuel allowance situation. As a counterpoint more thoughtful analysts have pointed out that the Tea Party really kicked into gear in the US with the threat to medicare for older voters. The idea of it as a libertarian Reaganite movement was a myth.
Would anyone attend a dinner where Theresa May was guest speaker?
I'd pay not to go to one where Corbyn was.
An example of the enthusiasm gap, tories don't really like may they just want to stop corbyn. She's another John Major, will win the election, but her negatives will drop like a stone and the tory party will be kicked out in 2022 because she has no policies to deal with the debt and the parliamentary party will full of loads of washed up mps that refuse to stand down for the benefit of their communities.
Actually, I think Tories do like May (at least for the moment). Currently 39% have favourable views of the Conservatives, but she pulls their vote share upwards.
What do you like about her? She has no charisma compared to Thatcher, Gove, Johnson, Redwood even Rees-Mogg.
I watched HIGNFU Last night and the clip they showed of May was deeply depressing when asked three times about how she would get money into the NHS she refused to answer it and made her look robotic and an idiot. I have sunday roast every week with the family (12 people, grandparents, parents and children all over 21, all vote conservative except one) and we all are less enthusiastic about the direction of the conservative party. The manifesto was a disgrace and all of Mays hacks need to stick to dealing with Maidenhead issues.
There is no policy to tackling the debt and that is quite frankly a disgrace. Anyone who saves money or lives within a budget must be shocked at this tory party strategy of paying the debt by 2025. If I couldn't clear my credit card every month I would spend less to pay more, this has totally disappeared since theresa may has become leader. At least, Cameron and Osborne tackled the deficit which once cleared would bring down the debt. May has no strategy. She was a terrible home secretary - Immigration went up every year under her watch and she has been on the wrong side of every major public policy decision. She has bad judgement because she's a career politician and this is not coming from me, but the very people that worked for members of camerons cabinet.
I don't have very strong feelings about her either way, but lots of people do like her, especially the over 50's. Her "provincialism" which so offends Bobajob is what they like about her.
How on earth anyone ANYWHERE near the centre ground could remotely consider voting for a party lead by Corbyn, McDonnell & Abbott is utterly beyond me.
Can any Corbyn apologist remind me what part of Germany's interventionist foreign policy lead to a terrorist mowing down 12 souls in Berlin last christmas ?
Why should anyone in the centre vote for a Tory government which has cut 25% from the Police budget since 2010 ?
Austerity has to go. Let normality return.
Government debt has risen by over a trillion quid in the last decade.
How can that be described as 'austerity' ?
And what does 'let normality return' mean fiscally ?
We for all.
And crash.
I rather suspect a minority Corbyn government would be brought down within months, possibly weeks.
"And we really would see the City more to Frankfurt, the car factories shut down, overseas investment end and the stock market crash."
Why won't these things happen if we leave the EU without a Brexit deal?
Maybe they would and maybe they wouldn't and maybe they'll be a Brexit deal and maybe there wont.
Of course all those things were meant to happen on a Leave vote alone but didn't. And then when A50 was triggered but didn't.
For that matter all those things were meant to happen if the UK left the ERM in 1992 or failed to join the Euro in 1999.
So currently we're running at 0/4 (at least) on the 'doom and disaster will happen if we don't do what Brussels wants' predictions.
Prime Minister Corbyn is, I suspect, is a scenario from an entirely different book.
If you could point out some countries where Corbyn's policies have been implemented they might give an idea as to what would happen in this country. As I remember Venezuela was much admired among the Corbynistas.
I don't support Corbyn; I don't support a Brexit with no deal. I want a strong and stable UK.
I have come to the view that even the useless Corbyn would be better than the risible May.
They really do seem as bad as each other to me, which means May has shown herself to be even worse than I thought. And the team that she leads is just awful. I cannot get over Fallon on C4 last night. Bottom line is that I have a serious Corbyn problem, not a Labour one.
Doing a bit of number-crunching, and comparing "favourable" ratings for the parties to top line voting intentions, think Yougov would have had Con and Lab on 40% apiece on Monday.
Let's not dwell in the past Sean!
Are you assisting the party today? Am just about to go canvassing...
I'll be helping Caroline Kerswell in Luton North.
Not Luton South ?
Kelvin Hopkins is surely safe and is one of the better Labour MPs in any case.
It's fascinating if the Tory vote is stuttering in the wake of the social care/winter fuel allowance situation. As a counterpoint more thoughtful analysts have pointed out that the Tea Party really kicked into gear in the US with the threat to medicare for older voters. The idea of it as a libertarian Reaganite movement was a myth.
True. But it isn't (just) about care!
Tories spent the first fortnight repeating like robots...strong and stable...strong and stable....
Then they launch out of the blue policy proposals that they hadn't thought through, hadn't prepared the ground for, and hadn't costed. Then when people started to complain they started to change them the very next day.
The reason they gave us for backing May not Corbyn was her surefootedness and steadfastness. Then they showed us it was all a myth.....meanwhile they leave the airtime and column inches free for Corbyn to show how surprisingly steadfast he is!
Fair play to corbynistas who said this woukd happen.
2015 - I thought more people would go for ed m, who was boring but seemed reasonable to me and I didn't think the attempt to portray him as radical and weak would be so successful. I was wrong.
2017 - I really though labour would be reduced to a core of around 30, that Corbyn's attempts to portray himself as reasonable would not be so successful, and I thought that labour have been so openly divided for years would hurt them as the tories just quoted all the labour figures critical of Corbyn. I was wrong again.
Now I'm a little worried. Clearly I don't know shit, and I never thought people labour would surge past their core vote in the polls, not regularly, let alone in actual votes. That last remains to be seen, but it's a worry, and baffling. I guess this is how remoaners feel.
I don't have very strong feelings about her either way, but lots of people do like her, especially the over 50's. Her "provincialism" which so offends Bobajob is what they like about her.
The provincials outnumber the metropolitans by more than 2 to 1 as well so its smart politics. One day I will post the view out my window for anyone that feels they living the provincial life
Long time lurker here, so here's my two penneth worth.
1. Risk that UKIP to Tory vote is piling up in Tory safe seats. 2. Likewise 2015 non voters are piling up in v safe Labour seats/big cities 3. Lib Dems are being very targeted in their campaigning, but still being downweighted in some polls (e.g. YouGov). 4. No sense as to what is happening in marginals as I don't live in one.
On terrorism, there are political risks for Labour and Tories from Manchester. Labour for Jezza's previous history on terrorism; Tories for the fact that children have died or been maimed on their watch. The latter risk is greater as it emerges the bomber was known to the authorities. We all accept that it is hard to prevent every terror attack, but will some wonder if Govt has done everything possible to keep citizens safe. Police cuts resonate. It will swing votes both ways to some degree, but not convinced hugely. But the Daily Mail below the line comments are not pro-Tory and some sympathy out there for Corbyn's foreign policy stance.
That said, still think the winter fuel payments and social care issues are more decisive. The campaign halted on Monday with those things hanging in the air as postal votes are returned. TMay was awful with Andrew Neil on Monday night.
The completely anecdotal conversation with my 75 year old Dad (Con voter in Sussex) today was very angry about winter fuel and less angry about the uncertainty of the social care 'consultation' announced in TMay's u-turn. Definitely not now voting Tory, although didn't know what to vote instead. So, I think Tory core vote has been damaged. WFA and social care even exercised my non-political work colleagues who were suddenly Tory critical, talk about no party of aspiration anymore. Worried about inheritance. Manchester events not mentioned. People just getting on with their daily lives, quietly angry, but thankful it didn't happen to me. Don't think this election is all about Brexit.
I've bet on a hung Parliament and a Labour seat band 200-229. Expect to lose and May to win anyway.
UKIP voters are splitting about 5/1 to the Conservatives. A lot of them are in marginal seats.
The Green vote has switched en masse to Labour, along with left wing Lib Dems. These voters are mostly not in marginal seats, but in big urban areas or university seats.
Not sure about the Green vote deserting en masse. They got 3.8% last time. Currently polling 2-3%, so hard to tell. If they only manage 2, then yes there has been widespread desertion. If 3 or tad over, then not so much. Kantar had then on 4.
Apologies if already posted or I have this wrong but Sir David Butler said at the end of the interview that if the votes were the same the Conservatives win more seats. I thought it was the opposite?
Apologies if already posted or I have this wrong but Sir David Butler said at the end of the interview that if the votes were the same the Conservatives win more seats. I thought it was the opposite?
Me too. What happened to the fabled anti-Tory bias?
Would anyone attend a dinner where Theresa May was guest speaker?
I'd pay not to go to one where Corbyn was.
An example of the enthusiasm gap, tories don't really like may they just want to stop corbyn. She's another John Major, will win the election, but her negatives will drop like a stone and the tory party will be kicked out in 2022 because she has no policies to deal with the debt and the parliamentary party will full of loads of washed up mps that refuse to stand down for the benefit of their communities.
Actually, I think Tories do like May (at least for the moment).
Certainly what the polling says - Tory voters like May significantly better than Labour voters like Corbyn......but what do they know?
It is a shame the young will have to live with the luddite and selfish decisions made by their less educated parents and grandparents.
Given the unrealistic nature of the labour manifesto, the uneducated elderly are making the better choice this time.
It's funny though - it'd be great for young people to finally show up, but for Corbyn of all people! I've mildly complimented him at times but I've never quite understood thE fervour, as much of what he says is trite cliché.
Apologies if already posted or I have this wrong but Sir David Butler said at the end of the interview that if the votes were the same the Conservatives win more seats. I thought it was the opposite?
Me too. What happened to the fabled anti-Tory bias?
The Lib Dem collapse and Labour's collapse in Scotland have given the Tories an electoral boost
Exactly - all Labour leaders before Corbyn have lived in fear of being monstered by the right wing press, and with some justification. That fear paralysed Ed Miliband for five years and all Corbyn's opponents in the 2015 leadership contest. They watched every word, terrified of being put on the front page of the Daily Mail with a negative headline (much like Mrs May, of course). They still got the monstering. Corbyn does too, but the big difference is that he does not care. The power of the press is certainly declining, but the Brexit referendum has also changed things hugely, as has May's embrace of the state.
My sense is the mail and other right wing papers are still very powerful. They will still write negative stories about whoever takes over from Corbyn which will still have an impact.
But the lesson is - if you are going to do well in spite of them, you need some big ideas to ensure that at least some of the time people will talk about what you want them to talk about. I suspect that's where Ed M. went wrong. He was flying high in the polls for a good while, but when attention turned to him in an election campaign he drifted to defeat.
Hopefully the next labour leader combines the radical agenda (which seems to be a plus), avoids own goal naive statements (singing anthems, initial statements on shoot to kill), and is able to unite the party (Corbyn has only managed this in opposition to himself).
It is a shame the young will have to live with the luddite and selfish decisions made by their less educated parents and grandparents.
Or they could get off their arses and vote, then they wouldnt.
The real shame is that the young are so apathetic, for which I have no sympathy whatsoever.
Maybe this time they wont be. That was one of Corbyn's promises and he has made a top retail offer in the form a free degree. Smart politics. Not so sure about the affordability, but that won't deter an 18 year old.
Would anyone attend a dinner where Theresa May was guest speaker?
I'd pay not to go to one where Corbyn was.
An example of the enthusiasm gap, tories don't really like may they just want to stop corbyn. She's another John Major, will win the election, but her negatives will drop like a stone and the tory party will be kicked out in 2022 because she has no policies to deal with the debt and the parliamentary party will full of loads of washed up mps that refuse to stand down for the benefit of their communities.
Actually, I think Tories do like May (at least for the moment).
Certainly what the polling says - Tory voters like May significantly better than Labour voters like Corbyn......but what do they know?
People who post here are far more politicised than the the general population, and hold party leaders to far higher standards than the population at large do.
Would anyone attend a dinner where Theresa May was guest speaker?
I'd pay not to go to one where Corbyn was.
An example of the enthusiasm gap, tories don't really like may they just want to stop corbyn. She's another John Major, will win the election, but her negatives will drop like a stone and the tory party will be kicked out in 2022 because she has no policies to deal with the debt and the parliamentary party will full of loads of washed up mps that refuse to stand down for the benefit of their communities.
Actually, I think Tories do like May (at least for the moment). Currently 39% have favourable views of the Conservatives, but she pulls their vote share upwards.
What do you like about her? She has no charisma compared to Thatcher, Gove, Johnson, Redwood even Rees-Mogg.
I watched HIGNFU Last night and the clip they showed of May was deeply depressing when asked three times about how she would get money into the NHS she refused to answer it and made her look robotic and an idiot. I have sunday roast every week with the family (12 people, grandparents, parents and children all over 21, all vote conservative except one) and we all are less enthusiastic about the direction of the conservative party. The manifesto was a disgrace and all of Mays hacks need to stick to dealing with Maidenhead issues.
y has become leader. At least, Cameron and Osborne tackled the deficit which once cleared would bring down the debt. May has no strategy. She was a terrible home secretary - Immigration went up every year under her watch and she has been on the wrong side of every major public policy decision. She has bad judgement because she's a career politician and this is not coming from me, but the very people that worked for members of camerons cabinet.
I don't have very strong feelings about her either way, but lots of people do like her, especially the over 50's. Her "provincialism" which so offends Bobajob is what they like about her.
Apparently that liking wasn't as much as we thought though - it's not going to lead to a sweep of Labour heartland sears like they dreamed of, visions of 100+ majority vanishing. I truly struggle to see how tories change the narrative of Labour are surging and they are desperate. Not out of fear of losing, but of making very little progress when they ecoerced lots.
Deciding out of the blue to call for a ge after a walking holiday looks pretty dumb now, even if slight gains are made.
I agree with the comments that the Labour manifesto is effectively an uncosted wish list and Corbyn would be a hopeless PM. It's a struggle for me even put an X in the box beside the candidates name.
(snip)
I believe that the tories will win the election, handsomely. But I don't think its the end of the road at all for Labour.
I agree with you. I also think sensible Labour moderates will be learning lessons about not being afraid of the power of the right wing press - that is the really valuable lesson that Corbyn has taught. The Tories have accepted the notion of the state as a powerful force for good. For a Labour leader without Corbyn's past and an ability to see beyond the comfort zone, that is a powerful positive; as is the fact that the Tories really aren't very good.
It sounds peverse, but I genuinely fear a Labour win, as unlikely as it is. In the long run it is better to have the Tories governing from the centre being opposed from the left, than having a hopeless PM elected on an undeliverable left wing manifesto. This would lead to economic chaos, and would embolden the hard right forces in the Tory party, who would win at the first opportunity as they always do. Its a really difficult one.
Again, I agree. I genuinely don't know whether I can vote on 8th June. I just do not see a choice and my Tory MP is going to win whatever I do.
She wants to clear the way though for whatever that is. Her problem was that as was, with a majority of 13, between the bastards and the opposition she had no room to manoeuvre.
I'm pretty relaxed about having May as PM with a decent working majority, she is much more representative of the country at large than Cameron and Osborne (who were a few years away from completely dismantling the state) and she is tackling difficult issues, like the generational divide. I still couldn't switch sides to the Conservatives though, I'm certainly not 'coming together' behind hard Brexit and I don't buy the illusion this is strong and stable government, it is just very well disguised chaos.
That looks a lot less likely now. I will not vote Labour while Corbyn leads the party, but I do think that he has shown it is possible to run a campaign and get a hearing without kow-towing to the right press. We will see what the result will be - I still cannot see beyond a big Tory win - but things don't look so bleak for Labour as they did at the start of the campaign. There is a way back.
That's the problem. Labour MPs still can't support Corbyn as leader. They are not standing on his manifesto, they are standing against it in many cases. That's not a formula for government
They are spineless makeweights who will support Corbyn if he wins
Absolute rubbish! Those who resigned did so on principle. The ones who gave up their shadow cabinet seats did so because of the arbitrary nature of Hilary Benn's sacking and the fact they had witnessed at first hand how useless he was as an administrator and leader.
The only ones I have contempt for (and it's slight ) are those who rejoined the shadow cabinet immediately after the coup failed.
They did it because they made a political calculation he was going to lose and wanted to be on the winning side. They were wrong.
Apologies if already posted or I have this wrong but Sir David Butler said at the end of the interview that if the votes were the same the Conservatives win more seats. I thought it was the opposite?
Me too. What happened to the fabled anti-Tory bias?
The Lib Dem collapse and Labour's collapse in Scotland have given the Tories an electoral boost
Cheers TSE. Completely forgot about the changes in Scotland where the distortion of fptp is so evident. Labours efficient use of votes becomes a pile of wasted votes and the reverse for the SNP.
I agree with you. I also think sensible Labour moderates will be learning lessons about not being afraid of the power of the right wing press - that is the really valuable lesson that Corbyn has taught. The Tories have accepted the notion of the state as a powerful force for good. For a Labour leader without Corbyn's past and an ability to see beyond the comfort zone, that is a powerful positive; as is the fact that the Tories really aren't very good.
It sounds peverse, but I genuinely fear a Labour win, as unlikely as it is. In the long run it is better to have the Tories governing from the centre being opposed from the left, than having a hopeless PM elected on an undeliverable left wing manifesto. This would lead to economic chaos, and would embolden the hard right forces in the Tory party, who would win at the first opportunity as they always do. Its a really difficult one.
Again, I agree. I genuinely don't know whether I can vote on 8th June. I just do not see a choice and my Tory MP is going to win whatever I do.
If realistically your vote can't effect the outcome then you are free to make a personal choice of best, or least worst. This isn't an election to stand aside. A LibDem or Green vote?
Actually, I'm coming to the conclusion that this might well be an election to stand aside from. I'm not going to endorse either Jeremy Corbyn or car crash Brexit. The Lib Dems have done their level best to lose my vote.
Why should I give an indication of support to any of them?
It has been pretty bad. I appreciated the tories being willing to tell their core vote they couldn't have some freebies anyone, but they've donE so poor against corbyn to point of making thus all a waste of EU negotiation time that counts against them. Labour's plans are spend spend spend, nice but I cannot believe it, and anything that helps corbyn is bad for everyone in the long run. And the lds are invisible except for bad things.
How on earth anyone ANYWHERE near the centre ground could remotely consider voting for a party lead by Corbyn, McDonnell & Abbott is utterly beyond me.
Can any Corbyn apologist remind me what part of Germany's interventionist foreign policy lead to a terrorist mowing down 12 souls in Berlin last christmas ?
Why should anyone in the centre vote for a Tory government which has cut 25% from the Police budget since 2010 ?
Austerity has to go. Let normality return.
Government debt has risen by over a trillion quid in the last decade.
How can that be described as 'austerity' ?
And what does 'let normality return' mean fiscally ?
We will find out what 'austerity' means if Corbyn wins. There'll be a bond upswing and it'll cost the government a lot more to fund the existing deficit never mind free owls, microwaves, electricity and degrees for all.
And we really would see the City more to Frankfurt, the car factories shut down, overseas investment end and the stock market crash.
I rather suspect a minority Corbyn government would be brought down within months, possibly weeks.
"And we really would see the City more to Frankfurt, the car factories shut down, overseas investment end and the stock market crash."
Why won't these things happen if we leave the EU without a Brexit deal?
Maybe they would and maybe they wouldn't and maybe they'll be a Brexit deal and maybe there wont.
Of course all those things were meant to happen on a Leave vote alone but didn't. And then when A50 was triggered but didn't.
For that matter all those things were meant to happen if the UK left the ERM in 1992 or failed to join the Euro in 1999.
So currently we're running at 0/4 (at least) on the 'doom and disaster will happen if we don't do what Brussels wants' predictions.
Prime Minister Corbyn is, I suspect, is a scenario from an entirely different book.
If you could point out some countries where Corbyn's policies have been implemented they might give an idea as to what would happen in this country. As I remember Venezuela was much admired among the Corbynistas.
I don't support Corbyn; I don't support a Brexit with no deal. I want a strong and stable UK.
I have come to the view that even the useless Corbyn would be better than the risible May.
What a binary choice not good .Boris v Emily I prefer Emily.Hammond v McDonnell , Hammond.
I agree with the comments that the Labour manifesto is effectively an uncosted wish list and Corbyn would be a hopeless PM. It's a struggle for me even put an X in the box beside the candidates name.
But I am also starting to think that Corbyn has possibly saved the party from oblivion, and the conservative manifesto itself is evidence that -at least economically - he has moved the centre ground of British politics to the left. Corbyn and Brexit have facillitated a paradigm shift away from neoliberalism and the legacy of Thatcherism. There is a lot of hopelessness in this country. Brutal employment laws. No job security. No access to the housing market. Lots and lots of people just about making ends meet. This probably applies for the majority of working age people in the town I live in. And this is contrasted with a relaxed attitude for far too long about wealth and the entitlement of a minority. Corbyn is wrong on many things, particularly national security, but he gives people hope in the way that no-one from the moderate wing of the labour party can. As such, he has proved his point.
I believe that the tories will win the election, handsomely. But I don't think its the end of the road at all for Labour.
I agree with you. I also think sensible Labour moderates will be learning lessons about not being afraid of the power of the right wing press - that is the really valuable lesson that Corbyn has taught. The Tories have accepted the notion of the state as a powerful force for good. For a Labour leader without Corbyn's past and an ability to see beyond the comfort zone, that is a powerful positive; as is the fact that the Tories really aren't very good.
It sounds peverse, but I genuinely fear a Labour win, as unlikely as it is. In the long run it is better to have the Tories governing from the centre being opposed from the left, than having a hopeless PM elected on an undeliverable left wing manifesto. This would lead to economic chaos, and would embolden the hard right forces in the Tory party, who would win at the first opportunity as they always do. Its a really difficult one.
Again, I agree. I genuinely don't know whether I can vote on 8th June. I just do not see a choice and my Tory MP is going to win whatever I do.
She wants to clear the way though for whatever that is. Her problem was that as was, with a majority of 13, between the bastards and the opposition she had no room to manoeuvre.
Also, the end of the A50 negotiation period was dangerously close to the next election campaign. Now it isn't.
Apologies if already posted or I have this wrong but Sir David Butler said at the end of the interview that if the votes were the same the Conservatives win more seats. I thought it was the opposite?
Me too. What happened to the fabled anti-Tory bias?
The Lib Dem collapse and Labour's collapse in Scotland have given the Tories an electoral boost
Not sure that makes much sense. Surely it's the Tories who tend to pile up wasted votes in their own seats. No-one quite on the level of Major '92 but if you were to take the MPs with the largest majorities surely most of them would be Tories. As for Scotland - aren't the Tories now in 2nd place. If so then surely it is they not Labour who will have lots of wasted votes north of the border. It's a puzzle. All I can think of is that Corbyn is pilling up more votes in safe seats AND May is being deserted by many voters in safe Tory seats with her focus on marginal Kippers. We shall see.
Can any Corbyn apologist remind me what part of Germany's interventionist foreign policy lead to a terrorist mowing down 12 souls in Berlin last christmas ?
Why should anyone in the centre vote for a Tory government which has cut 25% from the Police budget since 2010 ?
Austerity has to go. Let normality return.
Government debt has risen by over a trillion quid in the last decade.
How can that be described as 'austerity' ?
And what does 'let normality return' mean fiscally ?
We for all.
And crash.
I rather suspect a minority Corbyn government would be brought down within months, possibly weeks.
Why won't these things happen if we leave the EU without a Brexit deal?
Maybe they would and maybe they wouldn't and maybe they'll be a Brexit deal and maybe there wont.
Of course all those things were meant to happen on a Leave vote alone but didn't. And then when A50 was triggered but didn't.
For that matter all those things were meant to happen if the UK left the ERM in 1992 or failed to join the Euro in 1999.
So currently we're running at 0/4 (at least) on the 'doom and disaster will happen if we don't do what Brussels wants' predictions.
Prime Minister Corbyn is, I suspect, is a scenario from an entirely different book.
If you could point out some countries where Corbyn's policies have been implemented they might give an idea as to what would happen in this country. As I remember Venezuela was much admired among the Corbynistas.
I don't support Corbyn; I don't support a Brexit with no deal. I want a strong and stable UK.
I have come to the view that even the useless Corbyn would be better than the risible May.
They really do seem as bad as each other to me, which means May has shown herself to be even worse than I thought. And the team that she leads is just awful. I cannot get over Fallon on C4 last night. Bottom line is that I have a serious Corbyn problem, not a Labour one.
It is difficult to decide who most deserves to lose. My leaning is towards May who not only turned out to be an incompetent opportunist but a secret Brexiteer with a soft spot for the Saudis and Trump.
Corbyn for all his disloyalty to previous leaders is at least consistent and more importantly has a party behind him who have shown they will not blindly follow.
Actually, I think Tories do like May (at least for the moment). Currently 39% have favourable views of the Conservatives, but she pulls their vote share upwards.
What do you like about her? She has no charisma compared to Thatcher, Gove, Johnson, Redwood even Rees-Mogg.
I watched HIGNFU Last night and the clip they showed of May was deeply depressing when asked three times about how she would get money into the NHS she refused to answer it and made her look robotic and an idiot. I have sunday roast every week with the family (12 people, grandparents, parents and children all over 21, all vote conservative except one) and we all are less enthusiastic about the direction of the conservative party. The manifesto was a disgrace and all of Mays hacks need to stick to dealing with Maidenhead issues.
y has become leader. At least, Cameron and Osborne tackled the deficit which once cleared would bring down the debt. May has no strategy. She was a terrible home secretary - Immigration went up every year under her watch and she has been on the wrong side of every major public policy decision. She has bad judgement because she's a career politician and this is not coming from me, but the very people that worked for members of camerons cabinet.
I don't have very strong feelings about her either way, but lots of people do like her, especially the over 50's. Her "provincialism" which so offends Bobajob is what they like about her.
Apparently that liking wasn't as much as we thought though - it's not going to lead to a sweep of Labour heartland sears like they dreamed of, visions of 100+ majority vanishing. I truly struggle to see how tories change the narrative of Labour are surging and they are desperate. Not out of fear of losing, but of making very little progress when they ecoerced lots.
Deciding out of the blue to call for a ge after a walking holiday looks pretty dumb now, even if slight gains are made.
The narrative of Labour surging might disappear later today.
And the betting markets (not to mention many PBers) are still expecting a Conservative majority of over 100.
Though I never did understand where the reasoning behind the predictions of Conservative gains in West Bromwich and Hull came from.
Corbyn says he will force Premier League teams to give 5% of profit to grass roots football... the Premier League say they already give more than that!
Actually, I think Tories do like May (at least for the moment). Currently 39% have favourable views of the Conservatives, but she pulls their vote share upwards.
What do you like about her? She has no charisma compared to Thatcher, Gove, Johnson, Redwood even Rees-Mogg.
I watched HIGNFU Last night and the clip they showed of May was deeply depressing when asked three times about how she would get money into the NHS she refused to answer it and made her look robotic and an idiot. I have sunday roast every week with the family (12 people, grandparents, parents and children all over 21, all vote conservative except one) and we all are less enthusiastic about the direction of the conservative party. The manifesto was a disgrace and all of Mays hacks need to stick to dealing with Maidenhead issues.
y has become leader. At least, Cameron and Osborne tackled the deficit which once cleared would bring down the debt. May has no strategy. She was a terrible home secretary - Immigration went up every year under her watch and she has been on the wrong side of every major public policy decision. She has bad judgement because she's a career politician and this is not coming from me, but the very people that worked for members of camerons cabinet.
I don't have very strong feelings about her either way, but lots of people do like her, especially the over 50's. Her "provincialism" which so offends Bobajob is what they like about her.
Apparently that liking wasn't as much as we thought though - it's not going to lead to a sweep of Labour heartland sears like they dreamed of, visions of 100+ majority vanishing. I truly struggle to see how tories change the narrative of Labour are surging and they are desperate. Not out of fear of losing, but of making very little progress when they ecoerced lots.
Deciding out of the blue to call for a ge after a walking holiday looks pretty dumb now, even if slight gains are made.
The narrative of Labour surging might disappear later today.
And the betting markets (not to mention many PBers) are still expecting a Conservative majority of over 100.
Though I never did understand where the reasoning behind the predictions of Conservative gains in West Bromwich and Hull came from.
It was the difference between momentum trading and investing in value. As may well be the current gathering excitement about PM Corbyn.
It is a shame the young will have to live with the luddite and selfish decisions made by their less educated parents and grandparents.
Or they could get off their arses and vote, then they wouldnt.
The real shame is that the young are so apathetic, for which I have no sympathy whatsoever.
Not do I, but whisper it, maybe this time is different. One the young really like him. Two, usually they wait years til the next big vote and have all changed from those angry they loat and feeling silly they didn't vote. Now just 1 and 2 years out from big votes where the young let themselves down maybe it's still close enough to motivate them.
I'm pretty relaxed about having May as PM with a decent working majority, she is much more representative of the country at large than Cameron and Osborne (who were a few years away from completely dismantling the state) and she is tackling difficult issues, like the generational divide. I still couldn't switch sides to the Conservatives though, I'm certainly not 'coming together' behind hard Brexit and I don't buy the illusion this is strong and stable government, it is just very well disguised chaos.
Totally disagree.
Difficult Issue number 1 - Public Finances. May has no policy to deal with the debt just kicked into the long grace. Difficult Issue number 2 - Immigration. May as Home Secretary oversaw a year-on-year increase in migration both in and out of the EU. Difficult Issue number 3 - Housing There is no sustainable public policy around housing that both local authorities, developers and investors can adhere to. So from the purchase of land, to knocking property down to selling it on there are no guidelines instead rogue local authorities make up rules and regulations (you can't knock a house down until the council has seen your plans and you can't knock down trees without permission even though you own the plot!) Difficult Issue number 4 - Healthcare. The elephant in the room is people visiting GPs that aren't ill and just want to have a chat. Everyone should pay £20 to see a GP for appointment like we do to have a checkup with a dentist. This would reduce the burden on the taxpayer and also subsidise pensioners and people on benefits that aren't in work. GPs make a ridiculous amount of money for basically being an agony aunt because they don't have the time to tackle health as the surgery is overburdened with patients.
I agree with the comments that the Labour manifesto is effectively an uncosted wish list and Corbyn would be a hopeless PM. It's a struggle for me even put an X in the box beside the candidates name.
But I am also starting to think that Corbyn has possibly saved the party from oblivion, and the conservative manifesto itself is evidence that -at least economically - he has moved the centre ground of British politics to the left. Corbyn and Brexit have facillitated a paradigm shift away from neoliberalism and the legacy of Thatcherism. There is a lot of hopelessness in this country. Brutal employment laws. No job security. No access to the housing market. Lots and lots of people just about making ends meet. This probably applies for the majority of working age people in the town I live in. And this is contrasted with a relaxed attitude for far too long about wealth and the entitlement of a minority. Corbyn is wrong on many things, particularly national security, but he gives people hope in the way that no-one from the moderate wing of the labour party can. As such, he has proved his point.
I believe that the tories will win the election, handsomely. But I don't think its the end of the road at all for Labour.
I agree with you. I also think sensible Labour moderates will be learning lessons about not being afraid of the power of the right wing press - that is the really valuable lesson that Corbyn has taught. The Tories have accepted the notion of the state as a powerful force for good. For a Labour leader without Corbyn's past and an ability to see beyond the comfort zone, that is a powerful positive; as is the fact that the Tories really aren't very good.
It sounds peverse, but I genuinely fear a Labour win, as unlikely as it is. In the long run it is better to have the Tories governing from the centre being opposed from the left, than having a hopeless PM elected on an undeliverable left wing manifesto. This would lead to economic chaos, and would embolden the hard right forces in the Tory party, who would win at the first opportunity as they always do. Its a really difficult one.
Again, I agree. I genuinely don't know whether I can vote on 8th June. I just do not see a choice and my Tory MP is going to win whatever I do.
She wants to clear the way though for whatever that is. Her problem was that as was, with a majority of 13, between the bastards and the opposition she had no room to manoeuvre.
Also, the end of the A50 negotiation period was dangerously close to the next election campaign. Now it isn't.
Comments
(*) Which looks brave in this particular election...
Corbyn has been able to tap into many justified grievances - irresponsible capitalism, inter-generational unfairness, the lack of hope - which the establishment politicians have ignored or tolerated for over a decade.
What handicaps Labour is that these issues are concentrated among Labour voters and in Labour areas.
But I see no reason why these issues wont continue to grow with consequent electoral effects unless action is taken - falling home ownership among the young is already crippling the Conservatives in many urban areas.
How does laughing at a politician for being a politician progress matters?
Their problem is that if they do reasonably well it will be more difficult to get rid of Corbyn.
Sadly Britain has been badly served by its politicians who have profligately bribed votes, ignored underlying problems and predicted disaster if they didn't get their own way.
After decades of crying wolf against each other Britain is now at risk from the genuine wolf Corbyn.
Are you assisting the party today? Am just about to go canvassing...
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/26/heroic-black-humour-hatred-choose-british-values
The point JJ and his ilk miss is that the argument is not that western intervention created Islamic terrorism; we know it has existed for a long time and that there would be such people sitting in desert caves with or without our military involvement. What we didn't have before, and do now, is the active involvement of a small minority of our own Muslim youth, who either travel out there to sign up or launch terrorist attacks at home. It is the fringe attraction of Islamism at home that has been the consequence of Iraq, not the terrorists in their desert caves.
1. Risk that UKIP to Tory vote is piling up in Tory safe seats.
2. Likewise 2015 non voters are piling up in v safe Labour seats/big cities
3. Lib Dems are being very targeted in their campaigning, but still being downweighted in some polls (e.g. YouGov).
4. No sense as to what is happening in marginals as I don't live in one.
On terrorism, there are political risks for Labour and Tories from Manchester. Labour for Jezza's previous history on terrorism; Tories for the fact that children have died or been maimed on their watch. The latter risk is greater as it emerges the bomber was known to the authorities. We all accept that it is hard to prevent every terror attack, but will some wonder if Govt has done everything possible to keep citizens safe. Police cuts resonate. It will swing votes both ways to some degree, but not convinced hugely. But the Daily Mail below the line comments are not pro-Tory and some sympathy out there for Corbyn's foreign policy stance.
That said, still think the winter fuel payments and social care issues are more decisive. The campaign halted on Monday with those things hanging in the air as postal votes are returned. TMay was awful with Andrew Neil on Monday night.
The completely anecdotal conversation with my 75 year old Dad (Con voter in Sussex) today was very angry about winter fuel and less angry about the uncertainty of the social care 'consultation' announced in TMay's u-turn. Definitely not now voting Tory, although didn't know what to vote instead. So, I think Tory core vote has been damaged. WFA and social care even exercised my non-political work colleagues who were suddenly Tory critical, talk about no party of aspiration anymore. Worried about inheritance. Manchester events not mentioned. People just getting on with their daily lives, quietly angry, but thankful it didn't happen to me. Don't think this election is all about Brexit.
I've bet on a hung Parliament and a Labour seat band 200-229. Expect to lose and May to win anyway.
Interesting points, particularly about the under-reported salience of WFA v care
Why would you place bets you expect to lose?
LOL.
Your post seems to be an argument against mass immigration from majority-Muslim countries rather than anything to do with the perils of intervention. Is that what you meant?
Afghanistan, Iraq et al have undoubtedly been part of the attraction of Islamic fundamentalism here in the UK. But it's only part of the story: the centuries-old chasm between Sunni and Shia (yet alone the smaller sects), foreign funding and immigration has worsened the problem, as have a lack of perceived opportunities and ostracism in those communities here in the UK.
Net Favourable among VI (i.e. May among Con, Corbyn among Lab): Person (Party)
May: +92 (+90)
Corbyn: +65 (+88)
Farron: +41 (+78)
Who should I vote for?
A 20,000 Labour majority. I can't stand Jezza, I think the Greens are bonkers and totally unsuited to grown-up politics, Farron is anti-democratic, Ukip would be pointless, and I'm too tribal to vote Tory - and even if I wasn't, their campaign has been shite. Finally, there's no raving loony party candidate
Why should I give an indication of support to any of them?
To add to the Saturday morning anecdotes:
A family member (staunch Tory, sometimes votes Green for parish council) e-mailed me the day after the May u-turn and interview: she lied, he said. A flat, out and out set of lies. There has been a change to social care. He was incandescent.
As for attacks like today's in the Mail, the young will dismiss it as the irrelevant bellyaching of the old ('It's over, move on') while the hard left will meh it. But there are millions like me who know slippery Mister Corbyn of old. And his mendacious, murderous friends. And his true colours and intentions. Nothing he can promise (ha) will wipe all that away.
And we vote.
Many will be attracted by Corbyn's anti-establishment line.
I watched HIGNFU Last night and the clip they showed of May was deeply depressing when asked three times about how she would get money into the NHS she refused to answer it and made her look robotic and an idiot. I have sunday roast every week with the family (12 people, grandparents, parents and children all over 21, all vote conservative except one) and we all are less enthusiastic about the direction of the conservative party. The manifesto was a disgrace and all of Mays hacks need to stick to dealing with Maidenhead issues.
There is no policy to tackling the debt and that is quite frankly a disgrace. Anyone who saves money or lives within a budget must be shocked at this tory party strategy of paying the debt by 2025. If I couldn't clear my credit card every month I would spend less to pay more, this has totally disappeared since theresa may has become leader. At least, Cameron and Osborne tackled the deficit which once cleared would bring down the debt. May has no strategy. She was a terrible home secretary - Immigration went up every year under her watch and she has been on the wrong side of every major public policy decision. She has bad judgement because she's a career politician and this is not coming from me, but the very people that worked for members of camerons cabinet.
I agree with you on the last point. The UK has done better on security than France and Belgium precisely because our Muslim communities are less excluded and so we have better intelligence and co-operation (two separate Muslims phoned in reports about Abedi). Which is why the "now we must take on Islam" posts from SeanT and Cyclefree represent a counter-productive and indeed very dangerous dead end.
The Green vote has switched en masse to Labour, along with left wing Lib Dems. These voters are mostly not in marginal seats, but in big urban areas or university seats.
The only ones I have contempt for (and it's slight ) are those who rejoined the shadow cabinet immediately after the coup failed.
https://twitter.com/AndrewCooper__/status/868201704893894657
https://twitter.com/waddeller/status/868145004904054784
Kelvin Hopkins is surely safe and is one of the better Labour MPs in any case.
Tories spent the first fortnight repeating like robots...strong and stable...strong and stable....
Then they launch out of the blue policy proposals that they hadn't thought through, hadn't prepared the ground for, and hadn't costed. Then when people started to complain they started to change them the very next day.
The reason they gave us for backing May not Corbyn was her surefootedness and steadfastness. Then they showed us it was all a myth.....meanwhile they leave the airtime and column inches free for Corbyn to show how surprisingly steadfast he is!
2015 - I thought more people would go for ed m, who was boring but seemed reasonable to me and I didn't think the attempt to portray him as radical and weak would be so successful. I was wrong.
2017 - I really though labour would be reduced to a core of around 30, that Corbyn's attempts to portray himself as reasonable would not be so successful, and I thought that labour have been so openly divided for years would hurt them as the tories just quoted all the labour figures critical of Corbyn. I was wrong again.
Now I'm a little worried. Clearly I don't know shit, and I never thought people labour would surge past their core vote in the polls, not regularly, let alone in actual votes. That last remains to be seen, but it's a worry, and baffling. I guess this is how remoaners feel.
The real shame is that the young are so apathetic, for which I have no sympathy whatsoever.
It's funny though - it'd be great for young people to finally show up, but for Corbyn of all people! I've mildly complimented him at times but I've never quite understood thE fervour, as much of what he says is trite cliché.
That and Labour piling up votes in safe seats.
See here
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/13/corbyns-english-challenge/
But the lesson is - if you are going to do well in spite of them, you need some big ideas to ensure that at least some of the time people will talk about what you want them to talk about. I suspect that's where Ed M. went wrong. He was flying high in the polls for a good while, but when attention turned to him in an election campaign he drifted to defeat.
Hopefully the next labour leader combines the radical agenda (which seems to be a plus), avoids own goal naive statements (singing anthems, initial statements on shoot to kill), and is able to unite the party (Corbyn has only managed this in opposition to himself).
Deciding out of the blue to call for a ge after a walking holiday looks pretty dumb now, even if slight gains are made.
What to do?
And from here the Mclaren season can only go downhill as chances are there will be penalties every race from now on...
Corbyn for all his disloyalty to previous leaders is at least consistent and more importantly has a party behind him who have shown they will not blindly follow.
And the betting markets (not to mention many PBers) are still expecting a Conservative majority of over 100.
Though I never did understand where the reasoning behind the predictions of Conservative gains in West Bromwich and Hull came from.
I'm pretty relaxed about having May as PM with a decent working majority, she is much more representative of the country at large than Cameron and Osborne (who were a few years away from completely dismantling the state) and she is tackling difficult issues, like the generational divide. I still couldn't switch sides to the Conservatives though, I'm certainly not 'coming together' behind hard Brexit and I don't buy the illusion this is strong and stable government, it is just very well disguised chaos.
Totally disagree.
Difficult Issue number 1 - Public Finances.
May has no policy to deal with the debt just kicked into the long grace.
Difficult Issue number 2 - Immigration.
May as Home Secretary oversaw a year-on-year increase in migration both in and out of the EU.
Difficult Issue number 3 - Housing
There is no sustainable public policy around housing that both local authorities, developers and investors can adhere to. So from the purchase of land, to knocking property down to selling it on there are no guidelines instead rogue local authorities make up rules and regulations (you can't knock a house down until the council has seen your plans and you can't knock down trees without permission even though you own the plot!)
Difficult Issue number 4 - Healthcare.
The elephant in the room is people visiting GPs that aren't ill and just want to have a chat. Everyone should pay £20 to see a GP for appointment like we do to have a checkup with a dentist. This would reduce the burden on the taxpayer and also subsidise pensioners and people on benefits that aren't in work. GPs make a ridiculous amount of money for basically being an agony aunt because they don't have the time to tackle health as the surgery is overburdened with patients.