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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The election that looked boring and a certainty now becomes harder to predict
TONIGHT: Iconic psephologist @SirDavidButler tells @maitlis he's never seen such a big movement of opinion in election polls #newsnight pic.twitter.com/MSaQXOAykM
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1) He always thought it would be quite easy for Lab to get up to 35% by gathering all votes from the left. But then much harder to go much higher as that requires centrist votes.
2) He thinks big problem for Lab could well be piling up large numbers of extra votes in seats they win anyway - ie much less efficient votes to seats efficiency.
Can any Corbyn apologist remind me what part of Germany's interventionist foreign policy lead to a terrorist mowing down 12 souls in Berlin last christmas ?
While Labour has made improvements with pretty much every group, there's lots to suggest that they're making especially sharp improvements with their white working-class "traditional" voters, who they were struggling with so much at the beginning of the campaign.
See Obama 2008, Attlee 1945
Voting for hope after despair. Voting for fat bellies after thin gruel.
Whether they will get it or not is another matter.
Corbyn's support below the line in the Daily Mail comments is seriously worrying too.
Tim not cutting it.
Austerity has to go. Let normality return.
Normality can resume once the deficit is gone, how you think that will happen with Corbynism is beyond me.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the U.S. takes "full responsibility" for the leak of British intelligence from its investigation into the Manchester bombing.
"We take full responsibility for that and we are, we obviously regret that that happened," Tillerson said during a visit with London Mayor Boris Johnson. Tillerson made the trip Friday as an expression of U.S. solidarity with the U.K. following the attack at a Manchester concert, which left 22 dead and dozens of others injured.
http://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/tillerson-says-u-s-takes-full-responsibility-for-leak-of-british-intel/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4546912/Corbyn-shameless-apologist-world-s-men-evil.html
The newly elected Greater Manchester mayor, Andy Burnham, said he did not agree with Corbyn’s interpretation of the influence of foreign policy on terrorism. “I have a different view to Jeremy on this,” he told TalkRadio. “9/11 happened before any interventions overseas, and the ideology was in existence before that … The people who committed this appalling act are responsible for it, 100%.”
Burnham said radical Islamists had “used things” to justify violence. “We didn’t create it. [There’s] a tendency to blame governments for everything, and I don’t think we should.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/26/may-puts-manchester-bombing-at-heart-of-election-with-attack-on-corbyn
Meanwhile, I hear the Remainers trust in Tim Farron is going spiffingly well...
Con: 45
Lab: 4
UKIP : 28
These evil people will use whatever we do as an excuse. We should not be blaming ourselves, but them.
While the SNP have talked the talk, they have failed to walk the walk when it comes to progressive policies, especially with the young more ideologically driven voters. My middle son was a card carrying member of the SNP who voted for Independence in 2014, but he voted Labour at the Holyrood election last year in our constituency despite it being a straight fight between the SNP and the Scottish Conservatives where Labour didn't have a chance. And he voted Labour because the SNP would not commit to the 50% tax band. And then you have the older more disillusioned voters that are now seeing not only their local services suffering due to SNP cuts, but also wider public services like the NHS and policing effected. Add in the parents whose children are currently going through the education system, and there is now a growing volume of discontent.
Net Favourable April 20 / May 22 /. May 25
May: +10 / -8 / +1
Corbyn: -42 / -11 / -16
Farron: -26 / -26 / -29
Vote Corbyn - get IMF.
1997?
Leaving aside his many negative attributes, his mettle's impressive. So far, May's hasn't been.
May: +25
Corbyn: -18
Rudd: -16
Abbott: -53
May lead vs Corbyn: +43 points, Rudd lead vs Abbott: +37 points.
Yet I cannot help but admire his mettle. Hes beaten off lots of competitors.
And certainly all the remainers fears for the City of London under Brexit would become irrelevant very quickly.
Not to mention his plans for public sector pay - how will he respond when the Unions start putting in 10% plus pay claims and go on strike to achieve it?
But there has been movement, but there is also froth.
FWIW I still think Farron will struggle to hold W&L even though the agenda has moved on from Brexit. He gets verbal abuse shouted at him when he walks down Kendal Finkle Street - not by us I hasten to add. His agent seems to be a very worried man.
The chance of a Labour majority is tiny, so no risk. A Labour minority government is more realistic, but slight. I think that a hung parliament is the best that we can hope for.
I think that's totally in character. He's had essentially the same politics and policies since the 1980s; if he gets a chance to test those policies and they don't work, he won't see the policies as being at fault.
"We've squeezed the rich until the squeak and we still don't have enough money? Well, squeeze them some more!"
Generally speaking, it’s a bad idea for non-Afghani’s to get involved with Afghan affairs!
Arguably however the real mistake was the Iraq war, which distracted Western governments, divided their forces and sucked out their resolve.
It's depressing that every leader this time appears inferior to those of two years ago.
It'd be interesting if it were May versus Miliband.
And until 2 weeks ago that would have been that. Only question was a Tory majority of 50 or 150. But then it all changed. A Tory manifesto that repelled so many of their own supporters and repulsed everyone else. Offering a deepening of the grinding austerity which amongst other things removed so many police officers from our streets and leaves millions working but penniless and millions of others stuck in inadequate but expensive rented housing with no options for better.
Realising the misstep over the key headline Dementia Tax May then tries to u-turn. But in doing so leaves the door open on whether the policy will come in or not. In a manifesto woefully uncosted. And in doing so demolishes the Strong and Stable mantra which, alongside "I'm not Jeremy Corbyn", was the central pillar of her campaign. Knock away the central pillar and the ceiling falls in. And "ah but Corbyn loves terrorists" doesn't resonate any more - the clip of the police 2 years ago telling May that her police cuts would leave us wide open to terror attacks resonating far more powerfully.
Without the "Jeremy can't win" mantra you'd all be talking about how the Tories were in danger of being routed, how their massive paper lead was collapsing in the face of voters making real choices. Of people looking at their lives and once again realising that the deep blue sea may be better than the devil. Because what cards do the Tories have left to play to arrest their decline, never mind to seize the agenda again? Politics is story telling, spin a narrative people can believe in and you can get them to do anything - even vote for Trump. Or Brexit. Or a clown. Or a man in a monkey suit.
Though perhaps the longer view requires looking at the funding and arming of the Mujahadin against the Soviets by Maggie and Ronnie in the Eighties. That is how Bin Laden started, back when Islamist terrorists were considered the good guys by our press barons.
Looking at the state of Libya, Syria, Iraq and Yemen now it is hard to defend the case that our foreign policy has been flawless. We should at least consider what we would do differently the next time a MENA country tears itself apart. Lobbing bombs at civil wars has not worked out well.
Jezza was not arguing that Western Foreign policy was soley responsible for the rise of Islamism, but it is nessecary to at least consider how much it contributed. The War on Terror is a unique war where each side specialises in self harm.
His right hand man, Tariq Aziz, was a Christian.
Love him or hate him Corbyn absolutely believes in what he says, has done for decades, a refreshing change from the vacuous chameleons such as Blair and Cameron. Perhaps his sincerity is appealing to people.
Still predict a very large majority for May but it'll be interesting watching the tories earn it.
You are absolutely right about the effect of the U turn on the Tory narrative - they should never have made the election just about May.
To turn this into a Brexit election, Theresa has to outline her vision of Brexit. She has singularly failed to do so. She is an incompetent control freak which does not bode well, though I do expect Tories to gain seats.
And where there is no realism, there is no hope.
https://twitter.com/fidelmacook/status/868359423235936256
bin Laden's an interesting example. Afghanistan is an odd place for a Saudi national to have got 'started', isn't it? Or perhaps he was radicalised elsewhere and went looking for a fight. And if that's the case, *any* intervention in *any* Muslim land, however valid, would lead to problems.
The final endpoint of your position is that we end up leaving all lands Muslim extremists call their own to them (even including places like much of Spain), and not to react when they preform heinous acts inside 'their' lands, or outside to us.
We can't go around not pandering to extremists, because they will always want more.