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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May was right, this election should be about Brexit

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    isam said:

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It lacks the elegance of your method of ensuring Brexit by telling most Brits they're racist scum.
    I'm sorry that it upsets you so much to be reminded that Brexit was secured through xenophobic lies, but it's the essential reason why Brexit is the enduring disaster of the age for the country.
    People whose lives were ruined by mass immigration don't need politicians to lie for them to vote against it

    How have the lives of pensioners living in low areas of immigration been ruined by mass immigration?

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    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    midwinter said:

    I don't know why I 'm biting but that really isn't the reason Remain lost. It was immigration.

    And you could bear to be on the same side as Farage and the BNP but not Cameron and Osborne? Really?

    I don't agree with or like them, but they don't appear to hate Britain which is a trait shared by too many vocal Remainers.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    David Coburn:

    "My goal is to encourage Scots to stay in Scotland, build their businesses and employ their fellow Scots."

    Scots for Scotland !
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Are the wrong type of foreigners leaving ?

    https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/867666094647111680
    Figures don't appear to include housing benefit?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,221
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Are the wrong type of foreigners leaving ?

    https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/867666094647111680
    Again, this is an aggregate statistic which includes Ozil, Hazard, etc. I don't see them leaving any time soon. The ONS figures does say that net immigration from the EU8 is at it's lowest since 2004.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    David Coburn:

    "My goal is to encourage Scots to stay in Scotland, build their businesses and employ their fellow Scots."

    Scots for Scotland !

    Fat chance of me doing that whilst Holyrood taxes on income and property are so high I'm afraid.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    glw said:

    I don't agree with or like them, but they don't appear to hate Britain

    Really? Nobody was more vocal in his hatred of modern Britain than Farage.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,578
    Rhubarb said:

    YouGov are polling again. They're asking both a general who are you going to vote for and then asking again with named/partied candidates for your constituency.

    polling the military is hardly a balanced sample?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    edited May 2017
    IanB2 said:

    Rhubarb said:

    YouGov are polling again. They're asking both a general who are you going to vote for and then asking again with named/partied candidates for your constituency.

    polling the military is hardly a balanced sample?
    :D

    Asking one general twice may lead to a large MoE. :p
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Are the wrong type of foreigners leaving ?

    https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/867666094647111680
    Again, this is an aggregate statistic which includes Ozil, Hazard, etc. I don't see them leaving any time soon. The ONS figures does say that net immigration from the EU8 is at it's lowest since 2004.
    Give it two weeks and when the supreme leader is elected all the foreign footballers will be off.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,093
    edited May 2017
    Pong said:

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    Yup. People like foreign care workers have thought *screw it* why should I deal with this unpleasantness. I'll go *home* or to X country, earn a little less, pay a lot less for my housing and make a life for myself there.

    Our elderly must now pay much higher wages to (often) lower quality *British* careworkers - which will involve liquidating their housing assets en masse.

    That's what they voted for.
    Our elderly must pay the rate required for the care they need (alongside some councils who pay less than is required to cover unavoidable costs while paying someone the national living wage).

    Whether Eastern Europeans go home or not the price of care is going to rise 50% or so simply because the tax avoidance measures and fake self-employment zero hour contracts many home care companies use have to disappear.

    Also there is a very simple reason why immigration is down slightly. Last year you earned €1.30 for every £1 sterling now its €1.12. That's a 10% drop in wages compared to Germany...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    edited May 2017
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Are the wrong type of foreigners leaving ?

    https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/867666094647111680
    Again, this is an aggregate statistic which includes Ozil, Hazard, etc. I don't see them leaving any time soon. The ONS figures does say that net immigration from the EU8 is at it's lowest since 2004.
    Yes, if the only Europeans in the UK were sportsmen, bankers, lawyers and doctors, the figure would be much higher.
    We don't need more baristas, car washers and Big Issue sellers.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    TGOHF said:

    Security is now off the table as a Brexit negotiating tool. Though, to be fair, only deluded anti-European right wingers ever thought otherwise.

    Remainer glee at any potential setback for the Uk is the main reason they lost the referendum.

    A setback for swivel-eyed, right wing, anti-Europeans is not a setback for Britain. Their wish to increase the dangers faced by British citizens at home and abroad was sickening.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Are the wrong type of foreigners leaving ?

    https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/867666094647111680
    Again, this is an aggregate statistic which includes Ozil, Hazard, etc. I don't see them leaving any time soon. The ONS figures does say that net immigration from the EU8 is at it's lowest since 2004.
    Give it two weeks and when the supreme leader is elected all the foreign footballers will be off.
    All off to low tax France ? Lol.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,533

    Late to the discussion but a few comments on topic.

    Firstly, an excellent piece from Alastair. I don't agree with it all but it's very good to read a well-argued piece from a left-of-centre perspective; he and it are a credit to the site.

    And on the substance, and the point on which I dissent, the election is about Brexit but it's also about more than that. Most obviously, as Zac found in Richmond, elections are ultimately about whatever the public want them to be about, not what the politicians (or some of them) say it is.

    But beyond that, this election, as with most elections, is about leadership. Who do you trust to lead the country. Sure, that means who do you trust to get the best deal for Britain on leaving the EU: who has the head for detail; who can master the competing dynamics and best work them to produce a favourable outcome; who is pragmatic enough to cut a deal where necessary but firm enough to stand solid over red line; indeed, who best understands what the red lines should be? But it also means leadership on the economy: who do you trust to deliver sustainable growth and employment, and not to crash the car from recklessness and under-maintenance? It means leadership on security: who do you trust to keep us as safe as possible while balancing that against essential liberties; who do you trust to oversee the security services and military? It means leadership on public services: who do you trust to act in the interests of the citizen and not client groups, while recognising that those client groups both might have legitimate points and are probably essential to delivering those services.

    And the choice on offer is May, Hammond, Davis and so on, on the one hand, and Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott and co on the other. Those are the binary options. Certainly, other parties are available but none of them can win, so a vote for them is to delegate the most crucial decision to other voters.

    The question I asked myself about this election is: who has the best instincts to deal with the unexpected? Manifesto pledges are all well and good but the unexpected always arises.

    I didn't find it a difficult question to answer, to be honest.
    I think the question people will be asking is who is likely to create the sort of society I want to live in. Opponents are clear about what the other side want to do (profligate spending, lax on security, lurch to the left on the one hand; nasty cuts, NHS not safe, for the few not the many on the other) but not so great about their own vision.

    As someone put it on here very well, Cons are saying we are all going to hell in a hand cart and we are the only ones able to drive the cart. Lab? Not sure (but then as a Tory I wouldn't spend time working it out - fairness I suppose but what does that mean?).
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,382
    TGOHF said:

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    Are the wrong type of foreigners leaving ?
    Probably. That at least is what I'm picking up from my limited conversations with 'foreigners'. (I put that in inverted commas because the ones I know best have been in this country a very long time and many have come to regard it as home.)
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    IanB2 said:

    Rhubarb said:

    YouGov are polling again. They're asking both a general who are you going to vote for and then asking again with named/partied candidates for your constituency.

    polling the military is hardly a balanced sample?
    two weeks on the naughty step for you sonny. :lol:
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    RobD said:

    Pretty shocking list of leaks over on Guido. Hopefully heads will roll for this

    https://order-order.com/2017/05/25/8-us-intelligence-leaks-that-infuriated-british-government/

    Who precisely is shocked at any of this information about identity and bombs, and did these maiden aunts think the forensic teams in the white coveralls shown on or in British media were painters and decorators?
    None of this is exactly new with the US.
    During the Falklands, info was far more forthcoming from the US than it was from the MOD iirc.

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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Just watching Sky News and I'm struck by the media's desire to speculate wildly and without evidence on things. Yesterday they were claiming the flat raided at lunchtime was an 'air b and b' and have had to row back and explain that was false information.
    What purpose did reporting that yesterday serve? It's utterly irrelevant, and symptomatic of their need to seem like news hounds with their finger on the pulse. Dangerous idiots.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,926

    BBC - Net migration to the UK was estimated to be 248,000 in 2016 - a fall of 84,000 from 2015, figures show.

    The Office for National Statistics said the change was driven by "a statistically significant" increase of 40,000 people leaving the country.

    These were mostly EU citizens - 117,000 emigrated, up 31,000 from 2015.

    "Notably the number of people moving to the UK to study at university also fell by 32,000 to 136,000."

    At the moment I think EU student pay same as UK. But post Brexit I expect that would change and lead to Europeans being hit by the higher fees charge to those from the rest of the world.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It is more likely the fall in sterling which meant a sharp drop in wages calculated against the "home" currency: euros, zlotys or whatever.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited May 2017
    TGOHF said:

    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Are the wrong type of foreigners leaving ?

    https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/867666094647111680
    Again, this is an aggregate statistic which includes Ozil, Hazard, etc. I don't see them leaving any time soon. The ONS figures does say that net immigration from the EU8 is at it's lowest since 2004.
    Give it two weeks and when the supreme leader is elected all the foreign footballers will be off.
    All off to low tax France ? Lol.
    It isn't about tax levels, No maximum wage there....Also no top footballer goes to france, standard of football is shit and wages not great.

    China on the other hand are willing to pay even more stupid money than uk.
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Are the wrong type of foreigners leaving ?

    https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/867666094647111680
    Figures don't appear to include housing benefit?
    It's moronic. Will these people not get old and receive pensions and social care?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,059
    Scott_P said:

    glw said:

    I don't agree with or like them, but they don't appear to hate Britain

    Really? Nobody was more vocal in his hatred of modern Britain than Farage.
    Wonder why

    https://twitter.com/tnyzm/status/867512476023365632
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    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    edited May 2017
    It's Corbyn's stance on shoot-to-kill that is most damaging to him and naturally will be highlighted in the current climate.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,093

    Just watching Sky News and I'm struck by the media's desire to speculate wildly and without evidence on things. Yesterday they were claiming the flat raided at lunchtime was an 'air b and b' and have had to row back and explain that was false information.
    What purpose did reporting that yesterday serve? It's utterly irrelevant, and symptomatic of their need to seem like news hounds with their finger on the pulse. Dangerous idiots.


    It filled time and the problem with 24 hour news is that you have to fill 24 hours with news even when there isn't any...
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Security is now off the table as a Brexit negotiating tool. Though, to be fair, only deluded anti-European right wingers ever thought otherwise.

    Remainer glee at any potential setback for the Uk is the main reason they lost the referendum.

    A setback for swivel-eyed, right wing, anti-Europeans is not a setback for Britain. Their wish to increase the dangers faced by British citizens at home and abroad was sickening.

    I think you are going to need a bigger spade.
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    RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    glw said:

    I don't agree with or like them, but they don't appear to hate Britain

    Really? Nobody was more vocal in his hatred of modern Britain than Farage.
    Wonder why

    https://twitter.com/tnyzm/status/867512476023365632
    Are we certain Chris Morris isn't filming again?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited May 2017

    Just watching Sky News and I'm struck by the media's desire to speculate wildly and without evidence on things. Yesterday they were claiming the flat raided at lunchtime was an 'air b and b' and have had to row back and explain that was false information.
    What purpose did reporting that yesterday serve? It's utterly irrelevant, and symptomatic of their need to seem like news hounds with their finger on the pulse. Dangerous idiots.

    Unfortunately it is something we have imported from the US. Just repeating known fact don't get the rainfall.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,578

    Just watching Sky News and I'm struck by the media's desire to speculate wildly and without evidence on things. Yesterday they were claiming the flat raided at lunchtime was an 'air b and b' and have had to row back and explain that was false information.
    What purpose did reporting that yesterday serve? It's utterly irrelevant, and symptomatic of their need to seem like news hounds with their finger on the pulse. Dangerous idiots.

    Unfortunately it is something we have imported from the US. Just repeating known fact don't get the rainfall.
    24 hour rolling news has a lot of time to fill, particularly as the majority of the audience only tunes in briefly and expects to see coverage of the big story when they do so.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,190

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It lacks the elegance of your method of ensuring Brexit by telling most Brits they're racist scum.
    I'm sorry that it upsets you so much to be reminded that Brexit was secured through xenophobic lies, but it's the essential reason why Brexit is the enduring disaster of the age for the country.
    Or...Brexit was secured by hectoring, smug, superior arses, thinking that the argument for the EU was so fucking obvious that it made itself - but we'll gratuitously insult the intellects of the voters by the by.

    These hand-wringers could have
    a) formulated the reasons why staying in the EU was full off benefits, even for the dumbest fucks in society
    b) made that case to them in measured terms
    c) got out to the hell-holes where these Leave voters lived and talked them over, on the doorsteps.

    NOW they bitch and moan. Twelve months ago was the time to get engaged, if they truly thought it was the defining moment of our age.

    What did you do in the Great Referendum War, daddy?
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    isam said:

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It lacks the elegance of your method of ensuring Brexit by telling most Brits they're racist scum.
    I'm sorry that it upsets you so much to be reminded that Brexit was secured through xenophobic lies, but it's the essential reason why Brexit is the enduring disaster of the age for the country.
    People whose lives were ruined by mass immigration don't need politicians to lie for them to vote against it

    How have the lives of pensioners living in low areas of immigration been ruined by mass immigration?

    Believe it or not Southam, people do actually move from area to area. Shockingly, most retirees would like to live somewhere that does not make them feel like a foreigner in their own country.

    This phenomenon will only accelerate as Britain becomes more diverse.


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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,221

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It is more likely the fall in sterling which meant a sharp drop in wages calculated against the "home" currency: euros, zlotys or whatever.
    That is a very good point.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It lacks the elegance of your method of ensuring Brexit by telling most Brits they're racist scum.
    I'm sorry that it upsets you so much to be reminded that Brexit was secured through xenophobic lies, but it's the essential reason why Brexit is the enduring disaster of the age for the country.
    Or...Brexit was secured by hectoring, smug, superior arses, thinking that the argument for the EU was so fucking obvious that it made itself - but we'll gratuitously insult the intellects of the voters by the by.

    These hand-wringers could have
    a) formulated the reasons why staying in the EU was full off benefits, even for the dumbest fucks in society
    b) made that case to them in measured terms
    c) got out to the hell-holes where these Leave voters lived and talked them over, on the doorsteps.

    NOW they bitch and moan. Twelve months ago was the time to get engaged, if they truly thought it was the defining moment of our age.

    What did you do in the Great Referendum War, daddy?
    In your case, smirk while xenophobic lies were told.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,190
    Rhubarb said:


    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    glw said:

    I don't agree with or like them, but they don't appear to hate Britain

    Really? Nobody was more vocal in his hatred of modern Britain than Farage.
    Wonder why

    https://twitter.com/tnyzm/status/867512476023365632
    Are we certain Chris Morris isn't filming again?
    No, just phoning in "news" - and sitting back and laughing and laughing and laughing and laughing.....
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    calum said:
    Coalition of chaos for Stirling then... :p
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,190

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It lacks the elegance of your method of ensuring Brexit by telling most Brits they're racist scum.
    I'm sorry that it upsets you so much to be reminded that Brexit was secured through xenophobic lies, but it's the essential reason why Brexit is the enduring disaster of the age for the country.
    Or...Brexit was secured by hectoring, smug, superior arses, thinking that the argument for the EU was so fucking obvious that it made itself - but we'll gratuitously insult the intellects of the voters by the by.

    These hand-wringers could have
    a) formulated the reasons why staying in the EU was full off benefits, even for the dumbest fucks in society
    b) made that case to them in measured terms
    c) got out to the hell-holes where these Leave voters lived and talked them over, on the doorsteps.

    NOW they bitch and moan. Twelve months ago was the time to get engaged, if they truly thought it was the defining moment of our age.

    What did you do in the Great Referendum War, daddy?
    In your case, smirk while xenophobic lies were told.
    How many people did you try and win over in Jaywick?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It lacks the elegance of your method of ensuring Brexit by telling most Brits they're racist scum.
    I'm sorry that it upsets you so much to be reminded that Brexit was secured through xenophobic lies, but it's the essential reason why Brexit is the enduring disaster of the age for the country.
    Or...Brexit was secured by hectoring, smug, superior arses, thinking that the argument for the EU was so fucking obvious that it made itself - but we'll gratuitously insult the intellects of the voters by the by.

    These hand-wringers could have
    a) formulated the reasons why staying in the EU was full off benefits, even for the dumbest fucks in society
    b) made that case to them in measured terms
    c) got out to the hell-holes where these Leave voters lived and talked them over, on the doorsteps.

    NOW they bitch and moan. Twelve months ago was the time to get engaged, if they truly thought it was the defining moment of our age.

    What did you do in the Great Referendum War, daddy?
    In your case, smirk while xenophobic lies were told.
    The Remain campaign was cheated ? Was the result stolen ? The voters were wrong ?

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,578
    edited May 2017
    tlg86 said:

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It is more likely the fall in sterling which meant a sharp drop in wages calculated against the "home" currency: euros, zlotys or whatever.
    That is a very good point.
    But immigration hasn't fallen - last year's figure was comparable with the level every year back to 2007. People are still coming. The fall arises because last year a larger batch of EU people emigrated back home, reducing the net migration figure.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Nuttall going hard for a core hard right vote.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    RoyalBlue said:

    isam said:

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It lacks the elegance of your method of ensuring Brexit by telling most Brits they're racist scum.
    I'm sorry that it upsets you so much to be reminded that Brexit was secured through xenophobic lies, but it's the essential reason why Brexit is the enduring disaster of the age for the country.
    People whose lives were ruined by mass immigration don't need politicians to lie for them to vote against it

    How have the lives of pensioners living in low areas of immigration been ruined by mass immigration?

    Believe it or not Southam, people do actually move from area to area. Shockingly, most retirees would like to live somewhere that does not make them feel like a foreigner in their own country.

    This phenomenon will only accelerate as Britain becomes more diverse.

    So how many pensioners have moved to the North East or the South Wales vallies? If you live in an area of low immigration, surely you are less likely to feel like a foreigner in your own country.

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It lacks the elegance of your method of ensuring Brexit by telling most Brits they're racist scum.
    I'm sorry that it upsets you so much to be reminded that Brexit was secured through xenophobic lies, but it's the essential reason why Brexit is the enduring disaster of the age for the country.
    Or...Brexit was secured by hectoring, smug, superior arses, thinking that the argument for the EU was so fucking obvious that it made itself - but we'll gratuitously insult the intellects of the voters by the by.

    These hand-wringers could have
    a) formulated the reasons why staying in the EU was full off benefits, even for the dumbest fucks in society
    b) made that case to them in measured terms
    c) got out to the hell-holes where these Leave voters lived and talked them over, on the doorsteps.

    NOW they bitch and moan. Twelve months ago was the time to get engaged, if they truly thought it was the defining moment of our age.

    What did you do in the Great Referendum War, daddy?
    In your case, smirk while xenophobic lies were told.
    How many people did you try and win over in Jaywick?
    Why Brexit is a disaster is because far too many people were comfortable with using xenophobic lies in pursuit of their marginal obsession. As a result, the country has become unhappier, more divided and more racist and will continue down that path until those who did so accept that race-baiting in pursuit of votes is a recipe for disaster, the more so if the pursuit is successful.

    There really isn't much that the Remain campaign could do to stop the Leave campaign stooping to such depths. But those in charge of the Leave campaign were too stupid to see that winning on those terms was itself a defeat.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Are the wrong type of foreigners leaving ?

    https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/867666094647111680
    Figures don't appear to include housing benefit?
    It's moronic. Will these people not get old and receive pensions and social care?

    A lot of them will return home to retire. But if they have paid tax all their working lives why shouldn't they get a pension like the rest of us?

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302

    Nuttall going hard for a core hard right vote.

    I think if ukip was still led by farage rather than walty mitty, may could have been in a bit of trouble with all those voters who have recently jumped ship.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Coalition of chaos for Stirling then... :p

    I am curious whether this will get any traction at the SNP manifesto launch

    https://twitter.com/robertfulton78/status/867128336056807424
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It is more likely the fall in sterling which meant a sharp drop in wages calculated against the "home" currency: euros, zlotys or whatever.
    That is a very good point.
    But immigration hasn't fallen - last year's figure was comparable with the level every year back to 2007. People are still coming. The fall arises because last year a larger batch of EU people emigrated back home, reducing the net migration figure.
    Looks like it has been going up/down quite a bit, although the latest peak was markedly higher

    (scroll down to the graph at 10:27)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/25/general-election-2017-campaign-resumes-may-nato-summit-politics-live
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    calum said:

    twitter.com/DMReporter/status/867673005975056385

    You obviously don't follow any corbynistas on social media....
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,221
    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It is more likely the fall in sterling which meant a sharp drop in wages calculated against the "home" currency: euros, zlotys or whatever.
    That is a very good point.
    But immigration hasn't fallen - last year's figure was comparable with the level every year back to 2007. People are still coming. The fall arises because last year a larger batch of EU people emigrated back home, reducing the net migration figure.
    For some the fall in the pound has probably meant it's not worth staying on. For others coming, it might still be worth it.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,190

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It lacks the elegance of your method of ensuring Brexit by telling most Brits they're racist scum.
    I'm sorry that it upsets you so much to be reminded that Brexit was secured through xenophobic lies, but it's the essential reason why Brexit is the enduring disaster of the age for the country.
    Or...Brexit was secured by hectoring, smug, superior arses, thinking that the argument for the EU was so fucking obvious that it made itself - but we'll gratuitously insult the intellects of the voters by the by.

    These hand-wringers could have
    a) formulated the reasons why staying in the EU was full off benefits, even for the dumbest fucks in society
    b) made that case to them in measured terms
    c) got out to the hell-holes where these Leave voters lived and talked them over, on the doorsteps.

    NOW they bitch and moan. Twelve months ago was the time to get engaged, if they truly thought it was the defining moment of our age.

    What did you do in the Great Referendum War, daddy?
    In your case, smirk while xenophobic lies were told.
    How many people did you try and win over in Jaywick?
    Why Brexit is a disaster is because far too many people were comfortable with using xenophobic lies in pursuit of their marginal obsession. As a result, the country has become unhappier, more divided and more racist and will continue down that path until those who did so accept that race-baiting in pursuit of votes is a recipe for disaster, the more so if the pursuit is successful.

    There really isn't much that the Remain campaign could do to stop the Leave campaign stooping to such depths. But those in charge of the Leave campaign were too stupid to see that winning on those terms was itself a defeat.
    Today shows the yin and yang of AlastairMeeks. A great thread header, but then the comments...oh dear.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,382
    edited May 2017

    RobD said:

    Pretty shocking list of leaks over on Guido. Hopefully heads will roll for this

    https://order-order.com/2017/05/25/8-us-intelligence-leaks-that-infuriated-british-government/

    Who precisely is shocked at any of this information about identity and bombs, and did these maiden aunts think the forensic teams in the white coveralls shown on or in British media were painters and decorators?
    None of this is exactly new with the US.
    During the Falklands, info was far more forthcoming from the US than it was from the MOD iirc.

    Likewise July 7.

    Lord Blair was on the Today programme this morning and said it was exactly the same back then. The UK police and security provided their US counterparts with sensitive information on the understanding that it would be handled sensitively, but it was leaked all over the media. The UK complained, as it has done this time, but nothing changed.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,911

    Nuttall going hard for a core hard right vote.

    I think if ukip was still led by farage rather than walty mitty, may could have been in a bit of trouble with all those voters who have recently jumped ship.
    I agree with Francis

    I reckon UKIP could yet get close to catching LDs
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,578
    edited May 2017
    tlg86 said:

    IanB2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It is more likely the fall in sterling which meant a sharp drop in wages calculated against the "home" currency: euros, zlotys or whatever.
    That is a very good point.
    But immigration hasn't fallen - last year's figure was comparable with the level every year back to 2007. People are still coming. The fall arises because last year a larger batch of EU people emigrated back home, reducing the net migration figure.
    For some the fall in the pound has probably meant it's not worth staying on. For others coming, it might still be worth it.
    The interesting question is whether the batch of EU people leaving is balanced by just-as-many-as-usual coming, or whether immigration too has dropped from the EU and has instead picked up from non-EU regions such as South Asia, as some on the Brexit side were *bold* enough to say that they wanted? Maybe our curry houses are safe after all?
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It lacks the elegance of your method of ensuring Brexit by telling most Brits they're racist scum.
    I'm sorry that it upsets you so much to be reminded that Brexit was secured through xenophobic lies, but it's the essential reason why Brexit is the enduring disaster of the age for the country.
    Or...Brexit was secured by hectoring, smug, superior arses, thinking that the argument for the EU was so fucking obvious that it made itself - but we'll gratuitously insult the intellects of the voters by the by.

    These hand-wringers could have
    a) formulated the reasons why staying in the EU was full off benefits, even for the dumbest fucks in society
    b) made that case to them in measured terms
    c) got out to the hell-holes where these Leave voters lived and talked them over, on the doorsteps.

    NOW they bitch and moan. Twelve months ago was the time to get engaged, if they truly thought it was the defining moment of our age.

    What did you do in the Great Referendum War, daddy?
    In your case, smirk while xenophobic lies were told.
    Xenophobic is the lazy slur of the half-educated. Yes, the ancient Greeks were better than the barbarians. Do you disagree ?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028

    Nuttall going hard for a core hard right vote.

    I think if ukip was still led by farage rather than walty mitty, may could have been in a bit of trouble with all those voters who have recently jumped ship.
    Has Dr. Nuttall promised 100,000 gynecologists yet ?
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    eek said:

    Pong said:

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    Yup. People like foreign care workers have thought *screw it* why should I deal with this unpleasantness. I'll go *home* or to X country, earn a little less, pay a lot less for my housing and make a life for myself there.

    Our elderly must now pay much higher wages to (often) lower quality *British* careworkers - which will involve liquidating their housing assets en masse.

    That's what they voted for.
    Our elderly must pay the rate required for the care they need (alongside some councils who pay less than is required to cover unavoidable costs while paying someone the national living wage).

    Whether Eastern Europeans go home or not the price of care is going to rise 50% or so simply because the tax avoidance measures and fake self-employment zero hour contracts many home care companies use have to disappear.

    Also there is a very simple reason why immigration is down slightly. Last year you earned €1.30 for every £1 sterling now its €1.12. That's a 10% drop in wages compared to Germany...
    Sterling is actually €1.155 and has generally been in the €1.15-1.20 band since last November, so while that's still down on this time last year, it's not as significant a drop as you make out.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Nuttall going hard for a core hard right vote.

    I think if ukip was still led by farage rather than walty mitty, may could have been in a bit of trouble with all those voters who have recently jumped ship.
    I agree with Francis

    I reckon UKIP could yet get close to catching LDs
    I certainly think UKIP's average % per seat will exceed the Lib Dems.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: UKIP putting attack on May at centre of manifesto launch - all but blaming her for Manchester because of policy during time at Home Office
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    isam said:

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It lacks the elegance of your method of ensuring Brexit by telling most Brits they're racist scum.
    I'm sorry that it upsets you so much to be reminded that Brexit was secured through xenophobic lies, but it's the essential reason why Brexit is the enduring disaster of the age for the country.
    People whose lives were ruined by mass immigration don't need politicians to lie for them to vote against it

    How have the lives of pensioners living in low areas of immigration been ruined by mass immigration?

    Believe it or not Southam, people do actually move from area to area. Shockingly, most retirees would like to live somewhere that does not make them feel like a foreigner in their own country.

    This phenomenon will only accelerate as Britain becomes more diverse.

    So how many pensioners have moved to the North East or the South Wales vallies? If you live in an area of low immigration, surely you are less likely to feel like a foreigner in your own country.

    Good point; not many. The phenomenon I described is much more prevalent in the Home Counties and areas around the West Midlands conurbation. However, people in Merthyr and Alnwick know that if mass immigration is not significantly reduced, its effects will reach even them eventually.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    The growth of nostalgia in politics is one of the most interesting trends. You see it both on the left and the right. It's a reaction to the massive change we're seeing in technology and globalisation.

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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: UKIP putting attack on May at centre of manifesto launch - all but blaming her for Manchester because of policy during time at Home Office

    Fair enough, she was Home Secretary for six years and is currently the default PM.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,578

    Nuttall going hard for a core hard right vote.

    I think if ukip was still led by farage rather than walty mitty, may could have been in a bit of trouble with all those voters who have recently jumped ship.
    I agree with Francis

    I reckon UKIP could yet get close to catching LDs
    I certainly think UKIP's average % per seat will exceed the Lib Dems.
    It depends. UKIP to Tory was the story of the first week of the campaign, but LibDem (and some SNP/Green) to Labour was the story of the second week. That too may reverse if Labour fails the security test.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,382

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It lacks the elegance of your method of ensuring Brexit by telling most Brits they're racist scum.
    I'm sorry that it upsets you so much to be reminded that Brexit was secured through xenophobic lies, but it's the essential reason why Brexit is the enduring disaster of the age for the country.
    Or...Brexit was secured by hectoring, smug, superior arses, thinking that the argument for the EU was so fucking obvious that it made itself - but we'll gratuitously insult the intellects of the voters by the by.

    These hand-wringers could have
    a) formulated the reasons why staying in the EU was full off benefits, even for the dumbest fucks in society
    b) made that case to them in measured terms
    c) got out to the hell-holes where these Leave voters lived and talked them over, on the doorsteps.

    NOW they bitch and moan. Twelve months ago was the time to get engaged, if they truly thought it was the defining moment of our age.

    What did you do in the Great Referendum War, daddy?
    In your case, smirk while xenophobic lies were told.
    How many people did you try and win over in Jaywick?
    I was in Jaywick during the Clacton by-election and was astonished at how few immigrants there appeared to be there, and how much hostility there was to immigration.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Kippers promising everyone their own army, police force and hospital
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    eek said:

    Just watching Sky News and I'm struck by the media's desire to speculate wildly and without evidence on things. Yesterday they were claiming the flat raided at lunchtime was an 'air b and b' and have had to row back and explain that was false information.
    What purpose did reporting that yesterday serve? It's utterly irrelevant, and symptomatic of their need to seem like news hounds with their finger on the pulse. Dangerous idiots.


    It filled time and the problem with 24 hour news is that you have to fill 24 hours with news even when there isn't any...
    And an associated problem is that because they fill the spare time with discussion and opinion, that then becomes seen within the news teams as legitimate aspects of news-reporting, so filtering over into the bulletins proper.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,911
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302

    Kippers promising everyone their own army, police force and hospital

    Not promising them their own made up CVs?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,277

    NOW they bitch and moan. Twelve months ago was the time to get engaged, if they truly thought it was the defining moment of our age.

    What did you do in the Great Referendum War, daddy?

    The curse of the angry Leaver... Leave will never forgive the Remain campaign for being so weak that they lost the referendum, thereby forcing Brexitism to move beyond being an impotent cry of protest against Britain's place in the modern world.

    The Brexit negotiations should really be considered the trial of Euroscepticism, and case for the prosecution is getting stronger by the day.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Kippers promising everyone their own army, police force and hospital

    Not promising them their own made up CVs?
    I think we all get an armed fishing fleet too
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    Scott_P said:
    Looks to me like UKIP are trying to set up the Tories to fail over Brexit.

    What a bunch of meanies ^_~;;
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: UKIP putting attack on May at centre of manifesto launch - all but blaming her for Manchester because of policy during time at Home Office

    It's a decent line of attack - haven't heard any response from the Cons to Manchester other than "more of the same approach".

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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Nuttall going hard for a core hard right vote.

    I think if ukip was still led by farage rather than walty mitty, may could have been in a bit of trouble with all those voters who have recently jumped ship.
    I agree with Francis

    I reckon UKIP could yet get close to catching LDs
    I certainly think UKIP's average % per seat will exceed the Lib Dems.
    UKIP not standing in a lot of seats.

    Lib Dems just not standing in Buckingham because Tim Farron says he has been sufficiently intimidated by the Speaker to block the Region's selected candidate from standing.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/isaby/status/867675261181075460

    Looks to me like UKIP are trying to set up the Tories to fail over Brexit.

    What a bunch of meanies ^_~;;
    Will UKIP even be around to administer the test at the end of it?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,578
    calum said:
    How many aliases does SeanT have?
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Nuttall going hard for a core hard right vote.

    I think if ukip was still led by farage rather than walty mitty, may could have been in a bit of trouble with all those voters who have recently jumped ship.
    I agree with Francis

    I reckon UKIP could yet get close to catching LDs
    I certainly think UKIP's average % per seat will exceed the Lib Dems.
    UKIP not standing in a lot of seats.

    Lib Dems just not standing in Buckingham because Tim Farron says he has been sufficiently intimidated by the Speaker to block the Region's selected candidate from standing.
    That's why I said per seat, not overall. A result of UKIP 5%, Lib Dem 8% would see the kipper vote average higher.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,578

    Nuttall going hard for a core hard right vote.

    I think if ukip was still led by farage rather than walty mitty, may could have been in a bit of trouble with all those voters who have recently jumped ship.
    I agree with Francis

    I reckon UKIP could yet get close to catching LDs
    I certainly think UKIP's average % per seat will exceed the Lib Dems.
    UKIP not standing in a lot of seats.

    Lib Dems just not standing in Buckingham because Tim Farron says he has been sufficiently intimidated by the Speaker to block the Region's selected candidate from standing.
    + half of Brighton
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: UKIP putting attack on May at centre of manifesto launch - all but blaming her for Manchester because of policy during time at Home Office

    It's a decent line of attack - haven't heard any response from the Cons to Manchester other than "more of the same approach".

    I would be surprised that when GE starts again they don't come out talking tough as it will also able them to point at team twat and shout weak, danger to national security, etc etc etc.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,277
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/isaby/status/867675261181075460

    Looks to me like UKIP are trying to set up the Tories to fail over Brexit.

    What a bunch of meanies ^_~;;
    Will UKIP even be around to administer the test at the end of it?
    Farage will probably have a new movement by then - En pas de l'oie!
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,926
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    Looks to me like UKIP are trying to set up the Tories to fail over Brexit.

    What a bunch of meanies ^_~;;
    Seems a weird amount of prominence to give to fishing!
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Are the wrong type of foreigners leaving ?

    https://twitter.com/jameskirkup/status/867666094647111680
    Figures don't appear to include housing benefit?
    It's moronic. Will these people not get old and receive pensions and social care?

    A lot of them will return home to retire. But if they have paid tax all their working lives why shouldn't they get a pension like the rest of us?

    So we impoverish ourselves two-fold; we increase the number of people in the country who will be net beneficiaries of public spending over their lifetime, and the number who will spend their pensions abroad, and thus worsen our balance of payments and other aspects of the economy.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    I've been predicting for some time that immigration would fall by using the simple method of being so unpleasant to foreigners that they would get the message. Clearly that's working.

    It lacks the elegance of your method of ensuring Brexit by telling most Brits they're racist scum.
    I'm sorry that it upsets you so much to be reminded that Brexit was secured through xenophobic lies, but it's the essential reason why Brexit is the enduring disaster of the age for the country.
    Or...Brexit was secured by hectoring, smug, superior arses, thinking that the argument for the EU was so fucking obvious that it made itself - but we'll gratuitously insult the intellects of the voters by the by.

    These hand-wringers could have
    a) formulated the reasons why staying in the EU was full off benefits, even for the dumbest fucks in society
    b) made that case to them in measured terms
    c) got out to the hell-holes where these Leave voters lived and talked them over, on the doorsteps.

    NOW they bitch and moan. Twelve months ago was the time to get engaged, if they truly thought it was the defining moment of our age.

    What did you do in the Great Referendum War, daddy?
    In your case, smirk while xenophobic lies were told.
    Xenophobic is the lazy slur of the half-educated. Yes, the ancient Greeks were better than the barbarians. Do you disagree ?
    Curiously, the Greeks themselves were by no means unanimous on that one. Alexander's adoption of Persian dress and customs is a case in point.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    ttps://twitter.com/isaby/status/867675261181075460

    Looks to me like UKIP are trying to set up the Tories to fail over Brexit.

    What a bunch of meanies ^_~;;
    How much clout does a party have with no elected MPs, few Councillors and soon no MEPs?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: UKIP putting attack on May at centre of manifesto launch - all but blaming her for Manchester because of policy during time at Home Office

    It's a decent line of attack - haven't heard any response from the Cons to Manchester other than "more of the same approach".

    I would be surprised that when GE starts again they don't come out talking tough as it will also able them to point at team twat and shout weak, danger to national security, etc etc etc.
    Probably - but I doubt there will be any new policies.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: UKIP putting attack on May at centre of manifesto launch - all but blaming her for Manchester because of policy during time at Home Office

    It's a decent line of attack - haven't heard any response from the Cons to Manchester other than "more of the same approach".

    While the timing might not be ideal to make such a comment, the fact remains that the security services have done very well at preventing terrorism over the last decade or so and that stopping every attack is an impossible objective. The policy, practices and resources should certainly be reviewed post-Manchester but by and large, "more of the same" is probably a good starting point.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    UKIP should have called on the candidate in my parents' constituency to draft their manifesto. Making the Circle Line back into a circle is humdrum compared with mining expeditions to the asteroid belt.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Kippers promising everyone their own army, police force and hospital

    Not promising them their own made up CVs?
    Oh and food banks to be replaced by taking back overseas aid and distributing it to the poor. Expect sacks of flour to be dropped over the North
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Army responding to a call at college in Trafford. Wtf?!
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    you know I have been thinking internment for the people who fight with ISIS and return here is necessary. As reluctant as I used to be, we are just understanding the scale of the problem. Ofcourse if possible we should stip them of citizenship aswell. Those Daily Mail comments are not even close to the maddest ones I've seen.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,533
    edited May 2017
    Thank goodness we have people like you who aren't quite so ghastly.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    I am speculating that some of the Trump team have been leaking the Manchester details to take media attention away from the Truimp/Russia story.

    Will the FBI be investigating this too?
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,382
    nunu said:

    you know I have been thinking internment for the people who fight with ISIS and return here is necessary. As reluctant as I used to be, we are just understanding the scale of the problem. Ofcourse if possible we should stip them of citizenship aswell. Those Daily Mail comments are not even close to the maddest ones I've seen.

    You should have listened to Lord Blair and Frank Gardner on the Today programme this morning. They knocked that one straight on the head.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,150
    Anyway, I think it's completely wrong to think that "the rest of the campaign is likely to be dominated by security concerns".

    When Jo Cox was murdered people thought it would dominate the Brexit campaign, but within a few days it was as though it had never happened, as far as the campaign was concerned.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,382

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: UKIP putting attack on May at centre of manifesto launch - all but blaming her for Manchester because of policy during time at Home Office

    It's a decent line of attack - haven't heard any response from the Cons to Manchester other than "more of the same approach".

    While the timing might not be ideal to make such a comment, the fact remains that the security services have done very well at preventing terrorism over the last decade or so and that stopping every attack is an impossible objective. The policy, practices and resources should certainly be reviewed post-Manchester but by and large, "more of the same" is probably a good starting point.
    Thank goodness for a touch of common sense this mornng, David - like a breath of fresh air.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,190

    NOW they bitch and moan. Twelve months ago was the time to get engaged, if they truly thought it was the defining moment of our age.

    What did you do in the Great Referendum War, daddy?

    The curse of the angry Leaver... Leave will never forgive the Remain campaign for being so weak that they lost the referendum, thereby forcing Brexitism to move beyond being an impotent cry of protest against Britain's place in the modern world.

    The Brexit negotiations should really be considered the trial of Euroscepticism, and case for the prosecution is getting stronger by the day.
    Your medication needs upping by the day....
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Wow. It's suprising how similar the tory and labour response is!
This discussion has been closed.