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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May was right, this election should be about Brexit
The appalling events of Monday evening are dominating the election campaign. Young children and teenagers should be able to attend a pop concert without fear of being killed. I struggle to understand the mind of a man that can choose to inflict so much pain and suffering on so many young people and their families. Feelings are understandably running high: grief, anger, outrage and despair are mingled.
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It's no surprise folk like me think Brexit is going to be a disaster. Though with 11 months hard evidence rather than opinion I feel that more strongly than I did on June 23rd last year. The issue is we're a democracy and most folk don't agree with me. May is not being dishonest or conning anyone. The Conservative manifesto contains some startling and disturbing clarity on how hard Brexit will be, the scale of the tax rises and benefit cuts to come. The evidence is the electorate is not currently bothered. So who can really blame her for taking the offered landslide while it's there before the **** hits the fan ?
I could argue she should be more Stateswoman like but look where that got all her predecessors. And at least ( all be it with a lousy policy ) she's attempted to use some of this political capital on a big thanks big like social care.
It's telling in the light of Alistair's drift that May's only turbulence of the campaign came when she told a ' Truth ' to the electorate on social care. The electorate isn't in the mood for it.
I'm not sure I'll enjoy it as I imagine you all as a bunch of rabid alt-Right Milo-fondlers who bang on about Brexit continuously sitting in tin baths ladling sour milk over your distended bodies whilst exchanging fluids and doing the shunt between those ahem, special sessions with the cheesegrater.
But that might just be my imagination.
I do need to ask one thing tho: will there be any photography there? I like my anonymity and don't want my face online.
Correct me if I am wrong, but the big change of the policy was the inclusion of the home in working out how much you would pay for social care. That hasn't changed with the U-turn, and May may have got away without actually spelling out what the cap is, giving her significant flexibility (although the issue could be back in the headlines within days!)
Citation required
A very good article Mr Meeks, where do you find the time?
Just asking for a friend .... in MI5
Hopefully, though, we will get less bellicose language about our European friends from here on in. For friends they surely are. Our enemies do not sit in the Commission or in government offices in capital cities from Helsinki through Paris and Berlin to Athens. And as Alastair says in his very fine piece, security is not going to be a Brexit bargaining chip. Not least because we now know the Americans are less trustworthy than anyone. The Atlanticist fantasies of some of the more swivel-eyed right wing Brexiteers are dissolving into dust.
Has that actually been suggested? Surely it's more a question of resources and I'd suggest that this attack brings this issue in to sharp focus. Why the f*** should we pick up the tab for monitoring what's going on in Europe when we have scumbags flying to Lybia and back from this country?
I'm very concerned about the sort of country we're becoming if people are worried that shopkeepers are growing beards, that sounds flippant but its a serious point. I said on here yesterday that reprisals are inevitable, I might be wrong but its unlikely that Sean T will take direct action, in 1 or 2 places I wouldn't be so sure.
We are in troubled times and there will be people who say Brexit is the catalyst to violence against foreigners when it is not connected in any way. There will be dozens of reports of "racist" attacks which I find abhorrent, but if Islamists choose to murder children and nothing is "seen" to be done, there will be problems.
BNP, Britain First etc will be whipping people up into a frenzy, it is unconnected to Brexit in every way.
Or are we? This brings us to the rank unsuitability of Jeremy Corbyn to be prime minister and the fact that a once great party like Labour can seriously propose him as the person who could, in a matter of weeks, be chairing meetings of the government’s Cobra emergency committee.
Almost without fail, Corbyn has expressed support for this country’s enemies, opposed British military deployments overseas, or sided with assorted fringe elements who say we deserve what we get. The man is by no reasonable definition a patriot. He is quite simply unfit to hold office.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/it-s-time-we-talked-about-corbyn-s-patriotism-2f2xwzcnn
Any word on when the next batch of opinion polls are likely to come out?
Edit: no, apparently I was only allowed to read that one article
This time last year who could possibly have predicted an enormous tory majority with May in charge?
Events dear boy.....
If we're instantly uploading all our intel to the NSA icloud, it has to be secure.
They're being the opposite of helpful.
It is just a matter of us being informed by the EU what the conditions are for us to exit. And if they box our ears as we leave, then we must thank them as we go.
There is no point in a serf discussing with his master the terms for manumission.
He himself said it was to stop the Greens outflanking Labour to the left, which sounds entirely political as well as absolutely insane.
Before Manchester the ineptitude with which the Social Care policy and the lack of clarity on important changes proposed in the Tory Manifesto were eroding that trust in May and making the choice look less stark. I think this will now reset and would not be surprised to see polling somewhat similar to the start of the campaign.
Labour have donned sack-cloth & are walking barefoot through the streets of Canterbury while eighty monks flog them with branches.
The Labour Party needs to grow some balls and split into two or face decades in (weak) opposition.
Yes, Labour has been incredibly self-indulgent in putting these people at the top of their party. They need to be politically eviscerated for that. Parliamentary democracy requires the checks and balances of an Opposition crawling all over them. That Theresa May does not is hardly the fault of Theresa May.
Labour needs a bare-metal rebuild. If the Party can't do that itself - and the signs are not good - then we will have to subcontract the voters in to do it.
It was that unnecessary war that destroyed the credibility of the old front bench.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39215668
Security is about more than intelligence of imminent threats (which must always be shared, of course). We've stopped telling the Germans as much because their intelligence service resembled a colander and the information kept ending up in nefarious hands.
On a lighter note, because of Ascension Day the first practice day in Monaco is today, with Friday being empty (on a sporting level) and normal service resumed on Saturday and Sunday.
On an even lighter note, the second episode in Wandering Phoenix and Roaming Tiger has come out. It's really rather good, do give it a look:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B072335K32/
Acts 1 vv 6-14
Freetochoose is right that I support Corbyn's policies. I also like him and his political style very much, something I wouldn't say of everyone on the left.
Ydoethur is wrong to suggest that I was making some tactical manoeuvre to get Green votes. I voted for Iraq, and camre to feel it was a very serious mistake and Corbyn and others had been right to oppose it - the West was attempting to impose a solution on a country that we didn't understand or even bother to try to understand. I've consistently opposed interventions since, notably in Libya (where it seems to me obvious in view of the chaos there that I was right) and Syria. I think a successful rival party on the left would be an existential threat to Labour (cf. France!), but that was just a factual point, not the main reason to change my own views.
Southam feels that the priority should be to have a leader who takes us to success. Success for me is having government with worthwhile policies. I think that 2015-style campaigning (vote for us 'cos we're not the Tories and we'll give you some marginal benefits) is sterile and ultimately self-defeating. I'd consider voting for a centrist with a programme that seemed worthwhile. None of Corbyn's challengers IMO offered one.
I agree that the focus on security in view of public doubts about Corbyn is going to make the rest of the campaign difficult. I think we would be safer with Corbyn than May in Number 10 for the reasons set out here
http://www.nickpalmer.org.uk/a-safe-foreign-policy-outsourcing-war-decisions-to-donald-trump/
but I appreciate that it may be hard to persuade most voters of that. We can only do our best.
But ultimately, as freetochoose says, I think one has to decide who and what one supports and then try to get a majority of seats for it. Not the other way round.
But to try and atone for it by electing Corbyn as leader is the equivalent of Stalin making amends for the Ukrainian famine of 1931 by shooting all the coal miners in the Donbass, blowing up every steel factory with the workers inside and ordering Moscow burned to the ground.
There is failure - and there is compounding the failure.
Globally many centre left parties have collapsed and in many cases been supplanted by more left wing alternatives. In the UK because of our system that battle has taken place within the Labour party rather than seen the Labour party replaced.
I joined, campaigned and stood for UKIP, receiving all sorts of abuse along the way but I believed in what UKIP stood for and we achieved our aim.
It seems these "centrists" - what a bland, nondescript word that is - believe in nothing but power. Good for you, but please don't sneer at people who can't be bought and sold.
If you wish to rewrite history a la Tony Blair to try and shut me up about you or Corbyn whom you so foolishly voted for, go ahead. It won't work, but that's your problem. It might demonstrate to other posters why I will not be voting Labour this time, having voted for them in 2015.
As I have to get to work I cannot discuss this with you further now. I hope you have a productive and enjoyable morning.
Yes, dunno what the Septics are up to but it's not a good look to see your intelligence appear in the newspapers within hours.
Monaco: As you say, the holiday leads to the only Thursday in the F1 calendar, although nowadays they do run the support race cars on Friday morning. P1 starts in just under two hours' time at 11am local.
It is clear that Labour are now itching to turn this around to "police cuts" and the PM's record as Home Secretary. Hence, the pinzer movement being orchestrated by Ms Balls-Cooper and Andy (walk on water) Burnham.
I pose the question of whether Mr Burnham is overstepping the mark, regarding his remit as Mayor!
I think events in the last few years have demonstrated a ridiculous high bar for such a thing to happen.
So much for Five Eyes.
Corbyn and his ilk will remain at the top of the party until the next Tony Blair appears, someone with a vision for the future. It's difficult from here to see who that might be.
But, the concomitant of Theresa being lucky is that Jeremy has been unlucky.
First, the Labour centre-left refused to accept his election. Second, Brexit delivered to Labour an almost unplayable hand. And third, terrorism has now forced the election onto the worst arena of all for him.
After all that, I kind of feel amazed that Jeremy has kept going.
I won’t be voting for him, but I would buy his home-made jam.
Easier for her to do since she hasn't costed things whereas Labour have at least attempted to do so - and therefore would need to propose a new tax to pay for it.
That's "utterly and completely furious" for anyone who needs the translation from British English.
I'm wondering if this is a play on depicting the Trump administration as untrustworthy and the leaks are part of a bigger domestic game.
UK officials were outraged when photos appearing to show debris from the attack appeared in the New York Times.
And who can blame them?
Weekend schedule, that I dug out for @Roger yesterday. I think he's going to watch today, lucky bugger.
https://www.grandprixevents.com/f1-races/monaco/race-program-monaco
Incidentally, the moveable nature of the holiday always causes the F1 schedulers problems. Basically, it's the first race written into the schedule every year, and they have to organise all the other races around it.
The Indy 500 also always takes place on the same day, conveniently a couple of hours after the F1 finishes at 5pm UK time. Alonso starts 5th in that race on Sunday.
I doubt it's very organised though.
Mr. Rog, it might be that sort of game-playing, but it's so short-sighted and stupid it's deeply disappointing.
Anyway, we have an election to fight now: time to worry about what happens next thereafter.
In the meantime, there's an interesting discussion here of the challenges faced by voters and MPs in our electronic age:
https://www.demos.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Signal-and-Noise-Demos.pdf
At first skim, I think they're right about the problem, but I don't instantly see that their dashboards etc. solve it. But perhaps I've not studied it enough?
Fallon' diplomatic language hides furious anger at how pictures of a British crime scene ended up in an American newspaper within 24 hours.
Rumours are that the figures for banks alone are shocking. And given the stupidity banks show (e.g. Barclays' voice biometric verification), it's not surprise.
Corbyn believes in his own invincibility. He will still be directing his "armies" long after the war has been lost. His bunker has been prepared. They will have to smoke him out. He aint quitting evah..