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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Labour view of the party’s looming electoral disaster

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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927
    Countries that are critical of Israel still get hit by terrorists. Israel's existence is a pretext, rather than a real grievance.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    JWisemann said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    So in and amongst the attempts to "politicise an atrocity" you're going to, erm, politicise an atrocity...
    Well, the pathetic attempts to paint Corbyn as a danger to this country, when our Tory government is a serial supporter of Islamic extremism abroad, requires a sensible fact-based response. I would have avoided the issue otherwise, despite the Tories' glass jaw re: Syria, Libya and the source of 90% of global islamic fundamentalism, Wobbly May's masters in Riyadh.
    If it were not for the West's one-sided support of Israel and Bush and Blair's unprovoked invasion of Iraq (with the enthusiastic support of the Tories), the world would almost certainly be a much safer place today. Grievance is the fuel of extremism.
    I'm far from a rightwinger, but radical islamism predates Bush and Blair.
    Yes, at a lowish level, primarily driven by the Israeli/Palestine situation. The Iraq invasion is what made it mainstream.
    Errr...remind me.. 9/11?
    Carried out by Saudis, from a base in Afghanistan. If only the US and UK administrations had restricted themselves to catching and dealing with the perpetrators rather than using it as an excuse to launch an unprovoked attack on an uninvolved country.
    Oh yes, becuase it's 'so' easy to catch people which have an entire country to freely roam in and launch strikes from without actually invading it and going after people. Both Al-Qaida and the Taliban needed taking out, at source. You cannot have an openly operating terrorist nation.
    Al-Qaida and the Taliban were operating in Iraq?
    Did I mention Iraq?
    Iraq is the uninvolved country that I was referring to.
    You mentioned an unprovoked attack, though?
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    JWisemann said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    ..
    Well, the pathetic attempts to paint Corbyn as a danger to this country, when our Tory government is a serial supporter of Islamic extremism abroad, requires a sensible fact-based response. I would have avoided the issue otherwise, despite the Tories' glass jaw re: Syria, Libya and the source of 90% of global islamic fundamentalism, Wobbly May's masters in Riyadh.
    If it were not for the West's one-sided support of Israel and Bush and Blair's unprovoked invasion of Iraq (with the enthusiastic support of the Tories), the world would almost certainly be a much safer place today. Grievance is the fuel of extremism.
    I'm far from a rightwinger, but radical islamism predates Bush and Blair.
    Yes, at a lowish level, primarily driven by the Israeli/Palestine situation. The Iraq invasion is what made it mainstream.
    Errr...remind me.. 9/11?
    Carried out by Saudis, from a base in Afghanistan. If only the US and UK administrations had restricted themselves to catching and dealing with the perpetrators rather than using it as an excuse to launch an unprovoked attack on an uninvolved country.
    Oh yes, becuase it's 'so' easy to catch people which have an entire country to freely roam in and launch strikes from without actually invading it and going after people. Both Al-Qaida and the Taliban needed taking out, at source. You cannot have an openly operating terrorist nation.
    Al-Qaida and the Taliban were operating in Iraq?
    Did I mention Iraq?
    Iraq is the uninvolved country that I was referring to.
    Fair enough, so at least the rest of your arguement about radical islamism has fallen apart. We're making progress at least.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991

    CD13 said:

    I wonder what qualities Mrs May has? She is difficult to pigeonhole, butd wasn't a great home secretary as far as I remember. But being bland on a grand scale is more than enough to beat Jezza. He has a few fanatical supporters and a great many who are horrified at the thought of him as PM.

    Labour's only hope is that enough of their supporters vote Labour despite him. It only needs a rain shower or a good programme on TV for them to sit on their hands.

    I think the key question about this election is will Corbyn disliking labour supporters hold their nose and vote for him, sit on their hands and stay away, or vote for the enemy to get rid of him. I would love to see some specific polling on this.
    Headline intention would suggest it is the first option, or else lots of new supporters are flocking to him (or saying they will at any rate).
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,128
    kle4 said:

    I live in Thornbury and Yate which is the top SW target. There were 5000 UKIP votes last time and no UKIP standing this time so I cannot see it going yellow to blue.

    you mean blue to yellow?

    Of course - brain fade.

    My big thing in this election is that I cannot figure out where the Tories are coming from. They don't appear to be doing well in Wales or London. They cannot gain many seats across south or south west. The north West looks nailed on for Labour after mayorals. Scotland looks like increased vote share for little return. That leaves east and West Midlands and NE and Yorkshire. I cannot see where the big majority will come from in those areas.

    Con ...... 351
    Lab ....... 220
    SNP ......... 49
    LibDem ... 8
    N.I. ......... 18
    Plaid ......... 3

    Total ..... 650

    Con Maj ... 51

    The Conservatives can gain quite a lot of seats in London and Wales on small swings.

    And there's a lot more to North-West England than Liverpool and Manchester. Barrow, Blackpool S, Chester, Chorley, Copeland, Hyndburn and Workington for example. Plus various marginal within the two metropolitan counties.
    The super pessimistic Uncut piece suggests via a crude model something like 90 losses, but frankly somewhere in the 170-200 total range looks more plausible than that, the upper end at the moment if the rise in polls is a, real, and b, not super badly distributed.
    Two big ifs.

    But I don't expect a Labour meltdown - there's too much of the various Labour core votes (and too little of the those of the Conservatives) in the conurbations.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991

    kle4 said:

    I live in Thornbury and Yate which is the top SW target. There were 5000 UKIP votes last time and no UKIP standing this time so I cannot see it going yellow to blue.

    you mean blue to yellow?

    Of course - brain fade.

    My big thing in this election is that I cannot figure out where the Tories are coming from. They don't appear to be doing well in Wales or London. They cannot gain many seats across south or south west. The north West looks nailed on for Labour after mayorals. Scotland looks like increased vote share for little return. That leaves east and West Midlands and NE and Yorkshire. I cannot see where the big majority will come from in those areas.

    Con ...... 351
    Lab ....... 220
    SNP ......... 49
    LibDem ... 8
    N.I. ......... 18
    Plaid ......... 3

    Total ..... 650

    Con Maj ... 51

    The Conservatives can gain quite a lot of seats in London and Wales on small swings.

    And there's a lot more to North-West England than Liverpool and Manchester. Barrow, Blackpool S, Chester, Chorley, Copeland, Hyndburn and Workington for example. Plus various marginal within the two metropolitan counties.
    The super pessimistic Uncut piece suggests via a crude model something like 90 losses, but frankly somewhere in the 170-200 total range looks more plausible than that, the upper end at the moment if the rise in polls is a, real, and b, not super badly distributed.
    Two big ifs.

    But I don't expect a Labour meltdown - there's too much of the various Labour core votes (and too little of the those of the Conservatives) in the conurbations.
    Big ifs indeed. Labour could do surprisingly well, but also the worst predictions could come true (with little middle ground) depending on those questions.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    JWisemann said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    So in and amongst the attempts to "politicise an atrocity" you're going to, erm, politicise an atrocity...
    Well, the pathetic attempts to paint Corbyn as a danger to this country, when our Tory government is a serial supporter of Islamic extremism abroad, requires a sensible fact-based response. I would have avoided the issue otherwise, despite the Tories' glass jaw re: Syria, Libya and the source of 90% of global islamic fundamentalism, Wobbly May's masters in Riyadh.
    That is true to the extent that supporting Saudi Arabia the biggest exporter of terrorism and the most shocking exponent of misogyny is at least as morally suspect as Corbyn's support for dubious organisations and much more dangerous
    Saudi planes are now bombing ISIS

    But the inspiration for terrorism worldwide continues to flow out of saudi arabia, in the form of billions upon billions dollars' worth of resources to build mosques, madrassas, and surrounding infrastracture for the most, highly, conservative forms of islam.
    Trump said this week in the Middle East they had to confront radical Islam which is rather more than Corbyn has said
  • Options
    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    kle4 said:

    I live in Thornbury and Yate which is the top SW target. There were 5000 UKIP votes last time and no UKIP standing this time so I cannot see it going yellow to blue.

    you mean blue to yellow?

    Of course - brain fade.

    My big thing in this election is that I cannot figure out where the Tories are coming from. They don't appear to be doing well in Wales or London. They cannot gain many seats across south or south west. The north West looks nailed on for Labour after mayorals. Scotland looks like increased vote share for little return. That leaves east and West Midlands and NE and Yorkshire. I cannot see where the big majority will come from in those areas.

    Con ...... 351
    Lab ....... 220
    SNP ......... 49
    LibDem ... 8
    N.I. ......... 18
    Plaid ......... 3

    Total ..... 650

    Con Maj ... 51

    The Conservatives can gain quite a lot of seats in London and Wales on small swings.

    And there's a lot more to North-West England than Liverpool and Manchester. Barrow, Blackpool S, Chester, Chorley, Copeland, Hyndburn and Workington for example. Plus various marginal within the two metropolitan counties.
    The super pessimistic Uncut piece suggests via a crude model something like 90 losses, but frankly somewhere in the 170-200 total range looks more plausible than that, the upper end at the moment if the rise in polls is a, real, and b, not super badly distributed.
    I guess the other thing is that if Corbyn is racking up huge majorities in safe seats, and May is annoying the pensioner vote in her safe seats then vote distribution will heavily favour the conservatives. It will be fascinating.
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    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm still inclined to think she will win by a landslide.

    Agreed.
    Jack .... out of interest, what's your definition of a landslide .... 100+, 120+, 140+ ?
    The conventional definition is 100, I thought?
    Indeed so, but I wanted to hear Jack's definition. *wink*
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    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,902

    JWisemann said:



    So in and amongst the attempts to "politicise an atrocity" you're going to, erm, politicise an atrocity...

    Well, the pathetic attempts to paint Corbyn as a danger to this country, when our Tory government is a serial supporter of Islamic extremism abroad, requires a sensible fact-based response. I would have avoided the issue otherwise, despite the Tories' glass jaw re: Syria, Libya and the source of 90% of global islamic fundamentalism, Wobbly May's masters in Riyadh.
    If it were not for the West's one-sided support of Israel and Bush and Blair's unprovoked invasion of Iraq (with the enthusiastic support of the Tories), the world would almost certainly be a much safer place today. Grievance is the fuel of extremism.
    I'm far from a rightwinger, but radical islamism predates Bush and Blair.
    Yes, at a lowish level, primarily driven by the Israeli/Palestine situation. The Iraq invasion is what made it mainstream.
    Errr...remind me.. 9/11?
    Carried out by Saudis, from a base in Afghanistan. If only the US and UK administrations had restricted themselves to catching and dealing with the perpetrators rather than using it as an excuse to launch an unprovoked attack on an uninvolved country.
    Oh yes, becuase it's 'so' easy to catch people which have an entire country to freely roam in and launch strikes from without actually invading it and going after people. Both Al-Qaida and the Taliban needed taking out, at source. You cannot have an openly operating terrorist nation.
    Al-Qaida and the Taliban were operating in Iraq?
    Did I mention Iraq?
    Iraq is the uninvolved country that I was referring to.
    You mentioned an unprovoked attack, though?
    On Iraq, yes. Don't you remember? Mission accomplished and all that?
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    JackW said:

    JWisemann said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    So in and amongst the attempts to "politicise an atrocity" you're going to, erm, politicise an atrocity...
    Well, the pathetic attempts to paint Corbyn as a danger to this country, when our Tory government is a serial supporter of Islamic extremism abroad, requires a sensible fact-based response. I would have avoided the issue otherwise, despite the Tories' glass jaw re: Syria, Libya and the source of 90% of global islamic fundamentalism, Wobbly May's masters in Riyadh.
    "JWisemann" - Rarely has posters name been less appropriate.
    Pots and kettles after your undignified response yesterday.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    JWisemann said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    Gaddafi sponsored Lockerbie and the IRA so hardly kept us safe either and Corbyn would be a recipe for lax border controls and an end to arstrikes on ISIS
    The RAF has made almost zero impact on ISIS. The Russian Air Force, the Syrian Army, and the SDF in Syria, and the Iraqi popular militias and IAF in Iraq have done 95% of the work. Notably, the Russian Air Force and Syrian Army would have already wiped out ISIS if it weren't for the other Islamic fundamentalist jihadis in the country sponsored by our Tory government and their friends in Riyadh and Doha.

    Gaddafi's involvement in Lockerbie is still controversial (more likely Iran IMO), but anyway, he had long been 'rehabilitated'. Who posed a bigger threat to the UK in 2011, Gaddafi, or the islamic extremists that our Tory government helped to destroy the country and turn it into the terrorist paradise we see today (they tried to help a bunch of genocidal jihadi nutters destroy Syria too, but thankfully it looks like they failed)?

    Face it, Weak & Wobbly May and her buddies have been the extremists' best friends over the last 7 years.
    Actually it is Western arsteikes in Iraq on ISIS which may shortly enable the liberation of Mosul. Like it or not moderate rebels in Syria have to be part of the solution, Assad staying in power on his own will not bring peace to the country. While it is lax immigration policies supported by Corbyn which have given us many of the problems we have now
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    JWisemann said:



    So in and amongst the attempts to "politicise an atrocity" you're going to, erm, politicise an atrocity...

    Well, the pathetic attempts to paint Corbyn as a danger to this country, when our Tory government is a serial supporter of Islamic extremism abroad, requires a sensible fact-based response. I would have avoided the issue otherwise, despite the Tories' glass jaw re: Syria, Libya and the source of 90% of global islamic fundamentalism, Wobbly May's masters in Riyadh.
    If it were not for the West's one-sided support of Israel and Bush and Blair's unprovoked invasion of Iraq (with the enthusiastic support of the Tories), the world would almost certainly be a much safer place today. Grievance is the fuel of extremism.
    I'm far from a rightwinger, but radical islamism predates Bush and Blair.
    Yes, at a lowish level, primarily driven by the Israeli/Palestine situation. The Iraq invasion is what made it mainstream.
    Errr...remind me.. 9/11?
    Carried out by Saudis, from a base in Afghanistan. If only the US and UK administrations had restricted themselves to catching and dealing with the perpetrators rather than using it as an excuse to launch an unprovoked attack on an uninvolved country.
    Oh yes, becuase it's 'so' easy to catch people which have an entire country to freely roam in and launch strikes from without actually invading it and going after people. Both Al-Qaida and the Taliban needed taking out, at source. You cannot have an openly operating terrorist nation.
    Al-Qaida and the Taliban were operating in Iraq?
    Did I mention Iraq?
    Iraq is the uninvolved country that I was referring to.
    You mentioned an unprovoked attack, though?
    On Iraq, yes. Don't you remember? Mission accomplished and all that?
    You do realise that history didn't start in 2003, right?
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    I see that JStupidman and the Labour damage control team are out in force today, I wonder why that could be.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    I don't think that it will change the result too drastically, but it has changed the narrative of the campaign after Theresas wobbly weeekend. This was already a difficult election to call with a Tory majority anywhere between 50 and 150 plausible.

    A lot depends on what happens with the resumption at the weekend. Jezza has time to get his response tuned. This is turning into an election where Brexit is barely mentioned, despite that being its justification.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    JWisemann said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    JWisemann said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    So in and amongst the attempts to "politicise an atrocity" you're going to, erm, politicise an atrocity...
    Well, the pathetic attempts to paint Corbyn as a danger to this country, when our Tory government is a serial supporter of Islamic extremism abroad, requires a sensible fact-based response. I would have avoided the issue otherwise, despite the Tories' glass jaw re: Syria, Libya and the source of 90% of global islamic fundamentalism, Wobbly May's masters in Riyadh.
    That is true to the extent that supporting Saudi Arabia the biggest exporter of terrorism and the most shocking exponent of misogyny is at least as morally suspect as Corbyn's support for dubious organisations and much more dangerous
    Saudi planes are now bombing ISIS
    Source? They may have bombed ISIS like once or something. Certainly an infinitesimal fraction of the damage they caused in their part in the organisation's rise in the first place. Their planes are more concerned with killing kids in Yemen, with the help of our Tory government (the Saudi intervention in Yemen has also allowed Islamic State and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula to flourish, in some case in direct collaboration as de facto allies).
    https://theaviationist.com/2016/02/13/saudi-arabia-is-deploying-combat-planes-to-turkey-to-fight-isis/
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,253
    Roger said:

    JWisemann said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    So in and amongst the attempts to "politicise an atrocity" you're going to, erm, politicise an atrocity...
    Well, the pathetic attempts to paint Corbyn as a danger to this country, when our Tory government is a serial supporter of Islamic extremism abroad, requires a sensible fact-based response. I would have avoided the issue otherwise, despite the Tories' glass jaw re: Syria, Libya and the source of 90% of global islamic fundamentalism, Wobbly May's masters in Riyadh.
    That is true to the extent that supporting Saudi Arabia the biggest exporter of terrorism and the most shocking exponent of misogyny is at least as morally suspect as Corbyn's support for dubious organisations and much more dangerous
    Come now. Everyone knows that we exert huge moral influence over the Saudis by selling them our finely crafted weaponry. Think how ghastly they'd be if they had to buy that stuff from some unprincipled bounder of a country.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,361
    I'm not commenting on domestic politics until the national campaigns resume (tomorrow, I expect), but punters may want to note that Merkel is now running away with the prospective German vote:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    The free-market FDP, Merkel's natural allies, are doing well too. And I was talking to a left-wing Dutch politician yesterday: he is certain that the protracted negotiations will lead to a centre-right coalition there. So after this turbulent year, the EU will be dominated by centre-right governments, with the possible exception of Italy and small countries like Greece. Both the anti-immigrant right and the poipulist left are falling short everywhere, and the centre-left is getting squeezed wherever you look.
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    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,902

    JWisemann said:



    So in and amongst the attempts to "politicise an atrocity" you're going to, erm, politicise an atrocity...

    Well, the pathetic attempts to paint Corbyn as a danger to this country, when our Tory government is a serial supporter of Islamic extremism abroad, requires a sensible fact-based response. I would have avoided the issue otherwise, despite the Tories' glass jaw re: Syria, Libya and the source of 90% of global islamic fundamentalism, Wobbly May's masters in Riyadh.
    If it were not for the West's one-sided support of Israel and Bush and Blair's unprovoked invasion of Iraq (with the enthusiastic support of the Tories), the world would almost certainly be a much safer place today. Grievance is the fuel of extremism.
    I'm far from a rightwinger, but radical islamism predates Bush and Blair.
    Yes, at a lowish level, primarily driven by the Israeli/Palestine situation. The Iraq invasion is what made it mainstream.
    Errr...remind me.. 9/11?
    Carried out by Saudis, from a base in Afghanistan. If only the US and UK administrations had restricted themselves to catching and dealing with the perpetrators rather than using it as an excuse to launch an unprovoked attack on an uninvolved country.
    Oh yes, becuase it's 'so' easy to catch people which have an entire country to freely roam in and launch strikes from without actually invading it and going after people. Both Al-Qaida and the Taliban needed taking out, at source. You cannot have an openly operating terrorist nation.
    Al-Qaida and the Taliban were operating in Iraq?
    Did I mention Iraq?
    Iraq is the uninvolved country that I was referring to.
    You mentioned an unprovoked attack, though?
    On Iraq, yes. Don't you remember? Mission accomplished and all that?
    You do realise that history didn't start in 2003, right?
    Perhaps you could get to your point?
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. F, surely the public will be reassured by having 300 million more police on the streets if Diane Abbott becomes Home Secretary?

    On-topic: Mr. Brind, not heartened at all by Labour's surge in the polls?

    Troops on the streets (or at "events") might not be that good an idea after a few days. Blunkett was ridiculed over tanks at Heathrow. More worryingly, soldiers aren't trained for interactions with the public, and the history of using troops as police in Northern Ireland or abroad is not encouraging. Increasing the police overtime budget might have been the better choice.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    May is a lucky lady. The army out on the streets is going to make voters vote for nurse for fear of something worse. Corbyn and security are an anathema to one another.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    THE SNP has not declared a significant cash donation from a member of the public in six months, making it increasingly reliant on state funding to operate.

    New Electoral Commission figures show the SNP had the lowest donations of any major party in the first quarter of 2017, at £3300, and this came was from one of its own MPs.

    At the same time, the SNP was second only to Labour in the amount it received in public funds, banking £298,635 in “Short money” from the House of Commons.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15304613.SNP_relying_on_public_funds_as_big_donors_dry_up/
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    I don't think that it will change the result too drastically, but it has changed the narrative of the campaign after Theresas wobbly weeekend. This was already a difficult election to call with a Tory majority anywhere between 50 and 150 plausible.

    A lot depends on what happens with the resumption at the weekend. Jezza has time to get his response tuned. This is turning into an election where Brexit is barely mentioned, despite that being its justification.

    Labour's strategy of concede and move on from Brexit turned out best for them.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    I don't think that it will change the result too drastically, but it has changed the narrative of the campaign after Theresas wobbly weeekend. This was already a difficult election to call with a Tory majority anywhere between 50 and 150 plausible.

    A lot depends on what happens with the resumption at the weekend. Jezza has time to get his response tuned. This is turning into an election where Brexit is barely mentioned, despite that being its justification.

    Brexit will allow us to greater control our borders
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,004
    Mr. L, I agree that the sooner troops can be off the streets the better, but the suggestion is another attack may be imminent and it's a precaution.

    Mr. Palmer, cheers for that post, although there's only 1.2 or so available for Merkel to be next Chancellor.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    The french saying that abedi believed to have travelled to syria and has proven links to islamic state.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    May is a lucky lady. The army out on the streets is going to make voters vote for nurse for fear of something worse. Corbyn and security are an anathema to one another.
    Corbyn will be vilified by the MSM, a proportion of the mud will stick. We live in uncertain times.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    edited May 2017

    I'm not commenting on domestic politics until the national campaigns resume (tomorrow, I expect), but punters may want to note that Merkel is now running away with the prospective German vote:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    The free-market FDP, Merkel's natural allies, are doing well too. And I was talking to a left-wing Dutch politician yesterday: he is certain that the protracted negotiations will lead to a centre-right coalition there. So after this turbulent year, the EU will be dominated by centre-right governments, with the possible exception of Italy and small countries like Greece. Both the anti-immigrant right and the poipulist left are falling short everywhere, and the centre-left is getting squeezed wherever you look.

    Italy next year is the interesting one now. Beppe Grillo's populist 5* leads half the Italian polls and will likely have a majority with Forza Italia and Northern League support

    France of course is now Blairite rather than centre right
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    THE SNP has not declared a significant cash donation from a member of the public in six months, making it increasingly reliant on state funding to operate.

    New Electoral Commission figures show the SNP had the lowest donations of any major party in the first quarter of 2017, at £3300, and this came was from one of its own MPs.

    At the same time, the SNP was second only to Labour in the amount it received in public funds, banking £298,635 in “Short money” from the House of Commons.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15304613.SNP_relying_on_public_funds_as_big_donors_dry_up/

    Can I hear anyone saying 'busted flush'?
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    JWisemann said:



    So in and amongst the attempts to "politicise an atrocity" you're going to, erm, politicise an atrocity...

    Well, the pathetic attempts to paint Corbyn as a danger to this country, when our Tory government is a serial supporter of Islamic extremism abroad, requires a sensible fact-based response. I would have avoided the issue otherwise, despite the Tories' glass jaw re: Syria, Libya and the source of 90% of global islamic fundamentalism, Wobbly May's masters in Riyadh.
    If it were not for the West's one-sided support of Israel and Bush and Blair's unprovoked invasion of Iraq (with the enthusiastic support of the Tories), the world would almost certainly be a much safer place today. Grievance is the fuel of extremism.
    I'm far from a rightwinger, but radical islamism predates Bush and Blair.
    Yes, at a lowish level, primarily driven by the Israeli/Palestine situation. The Iraq invasion is what made it mainstream.
    Errr...remind me.. 9/11?
    Carried out by Saudis, from a base in Afghanistan. If only the US and UK administrations had restricted themselves to catching and dealing with the perpetrators rather than using it as an excuse to launch an unprovoked attack on an uninvolved country.
    Oh yes, becuase it's 'so' easy to catch people which have an entire country to freely roam in and launch strikes from without actually invading it and going after people. Both Al-Qaida and the Taliban needed taking out, at source. You cannot have an openly operating terrorist nation.
    Al-Qaida and the Taliban were operating in Iraq?
    Did I mention Iraq?
    Iraq is the uninvolved country that I was referring to.
    You mentioned an unprovoked attack, though?
    On Iraq, yes. Don't you remember? Mission accomplished and all that?
    I remember the enforcement of lots of UNSC resolutions. Don't you?
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    I don't think that it will change the result too drastically, but it has changed the narrative of the campaign after Theresas wobbly weeekend. This was already a difficult election to call with a Tory majority anywhere between 50 and 150 plausible.

    A lot depends on what happens with the resumption at the weekend. Jezza has time to get his response tuned. This is turning into an election where Brexit is barely mentioned, despite that being its justification.

    Brexit will allow us to greater control our borders
    Has not helped on this occasion when British born.However nor has our intervention in Libya.A failed state training camps and persons able to travel there and back .
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    Gaddafi sponsored Lockerbie and the IRA so hardly kept us safe either and Corbyn would be a recipe for lax border controls and an end to arstrikes on ISIS
    The RAF has made almost zero impact on ISIS. The Russian Air Force, the Syrian Army, and the SDF in Syria, and the Iraqi popular militias and IAF in Iraq have done 95% of the work. Notably, the Russian Air Force and Syrian Army would have already wiped out ISIS if it weren't for the other Islamic fundamentalist jihadis in the country sponsored by our Tory government and their friends in Riyadh and Doha.

    Gaddafi's involvement in Lockerbie is still controversial (more likely Iran IMO), but anyway, he had long been 'rehabilitated'. Who posed a bigger threat to the UK in 2011, Gaddafi, or the islamic extremists that our Tory government helped to destroy the country and turn it into the terrorist paradise we see today (they tried to help a bunch of genocidal jihadi nutters destroy Syria too, but thankfully it looks like they failed)?

    Face it, Weak & Wobbly May and her buddies have been the extremists' best friends over the last 7 years.
    Actually it is Western arsteikes in Iraq on ISIS which may shortly enable the liberation of Mosul. Like it or not moderate rebels in Syria have to be part of the solution, Assad staying in power on his own will not bring peace to the country. While it is lax immigration policies supported by Corbyn which have given us many of the problems we have now
    Lax immigration policies that were overseen by the Conservative Home Secretary from 2010 onwards? Not Amber Rudd, well yes, Amber Rudd as well but the other one.
  • Options
    GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    Just received an email from an old school friend whom I would normally regard as sensible Labour chappie.

    "I sense the fingerprints of Lynton Crosby all over this latest wheeze to scare the electorate.
    "
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503

    The french saying that abedi believed to have travelled to syria and has proven links to islamic state.

    All along information has flowed more freely from abroad about him, from France, and the U.S., than domestically. That suggests to me the authorities are maybe sitting on quite a few other bits of information.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    JWisemann said:



    So in and amongst the attempts to "politicise an atrocity" you're going to, erm, politicise an atrocity...

    Well, the pathetic attempts to paint Corbyn as a danger to this country, when our Tory government is a serial supporter of Islamic extremism abroad, requires a sensible fact-based response. I would have avoided the issue otherwise, despite the Tories' glass jaw re: Syria, Libya and the source of 90% of global islamic fundamentalism, Wobbly May's masters in Riyadh.
    If it were not for the West's one-sided support of Israel and Bush and Blair's unprovoked invasion of Iraq (with the enthusiastic support of the Tories), the world would almost certainly be a much safer place today. Grievance is the fuel of extremism.
    I'm far from a rightwinger, but radical islamism predates Bush and Blair.
    Yes, at a lowish level, primarily driven by the Israeli/Palestine situation. The Iraq invasion is what made it mainstream.
    Errr...remind me.. 9/11?
    Carried out by Saudis, from a base in Afghanistan. If only the US and UK administrations had restricted themselves to catching and dealing with the perpetrators rather than using it as an excuse to launch an unprovoked attack on an uninvolved country.
    Oh yes, becuase it's 'so' easy to catch people which have an entire country to freely roam in and launch strikes from without actually invading it and going after people. Both Al-Qaida and the Taliban needed taking out, at source. You cannot have an openly operating terrorist nation.
    Al-Qaida and the Taliban were operating in Iraq?
    Did I mention Iraq?
    Iraq is the uninvolved country that I was referring to.
    You mentioned an unprovoked attack, though?
    On Iraq, yes. Don't you remember? Mission accomplished and all that?
    You do realise that history didn't start in 2003, right?
    Rather like his controversial views on "AGW" it seems like history begins wherever it best suits FeersumEnjineeya's graph.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Mortimer said:

    THE SNP has not declared a significant cash donation from a member of the public in six months, making it increasingly reliant on state funding to operate.

    New Electoral Commission figures show the SNP had the lowest donations of any major party in the first quarter of 2017, at £3300, and this came was from one of its own MPs.

    At the same time, the SNP was second only to Labour in the amount it received in public funds, banking £298,635 in “Short money” from the House of Commons.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15304613.SNP_relying_on_public_funds_as_big_donors_dry_up/

    Can I hear anyone saying 'busted flush'?
    Heart of stone etc etc
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. F, surely the public will be reassured by having 300 million more police on the streets if Diane Abbott becomes Home Secretary?

    On-topic: Mr. Brind, not heartened at all by Labour's surge in the polls?

    Troops on the streets (or at "events") might not be that good an idea after a few days. Blunkett was ridiculed over tanks at Heathrow. More worryingly, soldiers aren't trained for interactions with the public, and the history of using troops as police in Northern Ireland or abroad is not encouraging. Increasing the police overtime budget might have been the better choice.
    I find armed police or soldiers alarming, not reassuring - Rome was crawling with them on Monday (in advance of the G7, I assume).
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    HYUFD said:

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    I don't think that it will change the result too drastically, but it has changed the narrative of the campaign after Theresas wobbly weeekend. This was already a difficult election to call with a Tory majority anywhere between 50 and 150 plausible.

    A lot depends on what happens with the resumption at the weekend. Jezza has time to get his response tuned. This is turning into an election where Brexit is barely mentioned, despite that being its justification.

    Brexit will allow us to greater control our borders
    So we keep being told, though this bomber was British born, as were the 7/7 bombers.

    None have had EU links.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Mortimer said:

    THE SNP has not declared a significant cash donation from a member of the public in six months, making it increasingly reliant on state funding to operate.

    New Electoral Commission figures show the SNP had the lowest donations of any major party in the first quarter of 2017, at £3300, and this came was from one of its own MPs.

    At the same time, the SNP was second only to Labour in the amount it received in public funds, banking £298,635 in “Short money” from the House of Commons.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15304613.SNP_relying_on_public_funds_as_big_donors_dry_up/

    Can I hear anyone saying 'busted flush'?
    If you think the SNP, a party still riding high in the opinion polls in Scotland if a little off its peak, have access to only £3300 if they want donations, then you're not thinking. The correct question to ask is: what's happening to the money that the SNP could draw on if they wished to and why are they not trying to draw on it?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    I don't think that it will change the result too drastically, but it has changed the narrative of the campaign after Theresas wobbly weeekend. This was already a difficult election to call with a Tory majority anywhere between 50 and 150 plausible.

    A lot depends on what happens with the resumption at the weekend. Jezza has time to get his response tuned. This is turning into an election where Brexit is barely mentioned, despite that being its justification.

    Brexit will allow us to greater control our borders
    Has not helped on this occasion when British born.However nor has our intervention in Libya.A failed state training camps and persons able to travel there and back .
    We could impose a travel ban now on all travel to and from Libya, Syria and Northern Iraq except for the media and international relief agencies and of course Merkel's refugee quota exacerbated the problem
  • Options
    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. F, surely the public will be reassured by having 300 million more police on the streets if Diane Abbott becomes Home Secretary?

    On-topic: Mr. Brind, not heartened at all by Labour's surge in the polls?

    Troops on the streets (or at "events") might not be that good an idea after a few days. Blunkett was ridiculed over tanks at Heathrow. More worryingly, soldiers aren't trained for interactions with the public, and the history of using troops as police in Northern Ireland or abroad is not encouraging. Increasing the police overtime budget might have been the better choice.
    I find armed police or soldiers alarming, not reassuring - Rome was crawling with them on Monday (in advance of the G7, I assume).
    I was in Rome in Jan and there were troops at major locations then so i think thats just paft of their policing strategy for the city
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503

    HYUFD said:

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    I don't think that it will change the result too drastically, but it has changed the narrative of the campaign after Theresas wobbly weeekend. This was already a difficult election to call with a Tory majority anywhere between 50 and 150 plausible.

    A lot depends on what happens with the resumption at the weekend. Jezza has time to get his response tuned. This is turning into an election where Brexit is barely mentioned, despite that being its justification.

    Brexit will allow us to greater control our borders
    So we keep being told, though this bomber was British born, as were the 7/7 bombers.

    None have had EU links.
    Correct.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    GeoffH said:

    Just received an email from an old school friend whom I would normally regard as sensible Labour chappie.

    "I sense the fingerprints of Lynton Crosby all over this latest wheeze to scare the electorate.
    "

    I hope you put him in his place.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    Gaddafi sponsored Lockerbie and the IRA so hardly kept us safe either and Corbyn would be a recipe for lax border controls and an end to arstrikes on ISIS
    The RAF has made almost zero impact on ISIS. The Russian Air Force, the Syrian Army, and the SDF in Syria, and the Iraqi popular militias and IAF in Iraq have done 95% of the work. Notably, the Russian Air Force and Syrian Army would have already wiped out ISIS if it weren't for the other Islamic fundamentalist jihadis in the country sponsored by our Tory government and their friends in Riyadh and Doha.

    Gaddafi's involvement in Lockerbie is still controversial (more likely Iran IMO), but anyway, he had long been 'rehabilitated'. Who posed a bigger threat to the UK in 2011, Gaddafi, or the islamic extremists that our Tory government helped to destroy the country and turn it into the terrorist paradise we see today (they tried to help a bunch of genocidal jihadi nutters destroy Syria too, but thankfully it looks like they failed)?

    Face it, Weak & Wobbly May and her buddies have been the extremists' best friends over the last 7 years.
    Actually it is Western arsteikes in Iraq on ISIS which may shortly enable the liberation of Mosul. Like it or not moderate rebels in Syria have to be part of the solution, Assad staying in power on his own will not bring peace to the country. While it is lax immigration policies supported by Corbyn which have given us many of the problems we have now
    Lax immigration policies that were overseen by the Conservative Home Secretary from 2010 onwards? Not Amber Rudd, well yes, Amber Rudd as well but the other one.
    This bomber's parents were admitted from Libya under the Tory government too.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    Gaddafi sponsored Lockerbie and the IRA so hardly kept us safe either and Corbyn would be a recipe for lax border controls and an end to arstrikes on ISIS
    The RAF has made almost zero impact on ISIS. The Russian Air Force, the Syrian Army, and the SDF in Syria, and the Iraqi popular militias and IAF in Iraq have done 95% of the work. Notably, the Russian Air Force and Syrian Army would have already wiped out ISIS if it weren't for the other Islamic fundamentalist jihadis in the country sponsored by our Tory government and their friends in Riyadh and Doha.

    Gaddafi's involvement in Lockerbie is still controversial (more likely Iran IMO), but anyway, he had long been 'rehabilitated'. Who posed a bigger threat to the UK in 2011, Gaddafi, or the islamic extremists that our Tory government helped to destroy the country and turn it into the terrorist paradise we see today (they tried to help a bunch of genocidal jihadi nutters destroy Syria too, but thankfully it looks like they failed)?

    Face it, Weak & Wobbly May and her buddies have been the extremists' best friends over the last 7 years.
    Actually it is Western arsteikes in Iraq on ISIS which may shortly enable the liberation of Mosul. Like it or not moderate rebels in Syria have to be part of the solution, Assad staying in power on his own will not bring peace to the country. While it is lax immigration policies supported by Corbyn which have given us many of the problems we have now
    Lax immigration policies that were overseen by the Conservative Home Secretary from 2010 onwards? Not Amber Rudd, well yes, Amber Rudd as well but the other one.
    When we were in the EU and if Corbyn got in it would be virtually open borders and anyone could come in
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    The french saying that abedi believed to have travelled to syria and has proven links to islamic state.

    All along information has flowed more freely from abroad about him, from France, and the U.S., than domestically. That suggests to me the authorities are maybe sitting on quite a few other bits of information.
    Or they are clueless and reliant on France and America. Unlikely but not impossible. He was on MI5's radar might be our equivalent of ISIS claiming responsibility for every outrage that crosses their twitter feed.
  • Options
    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    GeoffH said:

    Just received an email from an old school friend whom I would normally regard as sensible Labour chappie.

    "I sense the fingerprints of Lynton Crosby all over this latest wheeze to scare the electorate.
    "

    Sounds like paranoia to me. How could Crosby have the attack happen and evidence from site suggest a bomb maker and continued and therefore possible imminent threat. Whilst I think he will make the most of the circumstances, it's not really an attempt to scare the electorate but agreed procedure, which was agreed and defined well ahead of this time.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    Gaddafi sponsored Lockerbie and the IRA so hardly kept us safe either and Corbyn would be a recipe for lax border controls and an end to arstrikes on ISIS
    The RAF has made almost zero impact on ISIS. The Russian Air Force, the Syrian Army, and the SDF in Syria, and the Iraqi popular militias and IAF in Iraq have done 95% of the work. Notably, the Russian Air Force and Syrian Army would have already wiped out ISIS if it weren't for the other Islamic fundamentalist jihadis in the country sponsored by our Tory government and their friends in Riyadh and Doha.

    Gaddafi's involvement in Lockerbie is still controversial (more likely Iran IMO), but anyway, he had long been 'rehabilitated'. Who posed a bigger threat to the UK in 2011, Gaddafi, or the islamic extremists that our Tory government helped to destroy the country and turn it into the terrorist paradise we see today (they tried to help a bunch of genocidal jihadi nutters destroy Syria too, but thankfully it looks like they failed)?

    Face it, Weak & Wobbly May and her buddies have been the extremists' best friends over the last 7 years.
    Actually it is Western arsteikes in Iraq on ISIS which may shortly enable the liberation of Mosul. Like it or not moderate rebels in Syria have to be part of the solution, Assad staying in power on his own will not bring peace to the country. While it is lax immigration policies supported by Corbyn which have given us many of the problems we have now
    Lax immigration policies that were overseen by the Conservative Home Secretary from 2010 onwards? Not Amber Rudd, well yes, Amber Rudd as well but the other one.
    This bomber's parents were admitted from Libya under the Tory government too.
    The parents were law abiding and opposed their son's radicalism
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131

    HYUFD said:

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    I don't think that it will change the result too drastically, but it has changed the narrative of the campaign after Theresas wobbly weeekend. This was already a difficult election to call with a Tory majority anywhere between 50 and 150 plausible.

    A lot depends on what happens with the resumption at the weekend. Jezza has time to get his response tuned. This is turning into an election where Brexit is barely mentioned, despite that being its justification.

    Brexit will allow us to greater control our borders
    So we keep being told, though this bomber was British born, as were the 7/7 bombers.

    None have had EU links.
    It waa when he came back from Libya that was the problem and Merkel opened the floodgates from Syria etc
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,902

    JWisemann said:



    So in and amongst the attempts to "politicise an atrocity" you're going to, erm, politicise an atrocity...

    Well, the pathetic attempts to paint Corbyn as a danger to this country, when our Tory government is a serial supporter of Islamic extremism abroad, requires a sensible fact-based response. I would have avoided the issue otherwise, despite the Tories' glass jaw re: Syria, Libya and the source of 90% of global islamic fundamentalism, Wobbly May's masters in Riyadh.
    If it were not for the West's one-sided support of Israel and Bush and Blair's unprovoked invasion of Iraq (with the enthusiastic support of the Tories), the world would almost certainly be a much safer place today. Grievance is the fuel of extremism.
    I'm far from a rightwinger, but radical islamism predates Bush and Blair.
    Yes, at a lowish level, primarily driven by the Israeli/Palestine situation. The Iraq invasion is what made it mainstream.
    Errr...remind me.. 9/11?
    Carried out by Saudis, from a base in Afghanistan. If only the US and UK administrations had restricted themselves to catching and dealing with the perpetrators rather than using it as an excuse to launch an unprovoked attack on an uninvolved country.
    Oh yes, becuase it's 'so' easy to catch people which have an entire country to freely roam in and launch strikes from without actually invading it and going after people. Both Al-Qaida and the Taliban needed taking out, at source. You cannot have an openly operating terrorist nation.
    Al-Qaida and the Taliban were operating in Iraq?
    Did I mention Iraq?
    Iraq is the uninvolved country that I was referring to.
    You mentioned an unprovoked attack, though?
    On Iraq, yes. Don't you remember? Mission accomplished and all that?
    I remember the enforcement of lots of UNSC resolutions. Don't you?
    That is a matter of considerable debate.
  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    Gaddafi sponsored Lockerbie and the IRA so hardly kept us safe either and Corbyn would be a recipe for lax border controls and an end to arstrikes on ISIS
    The RAF has made almost zero impact on ISIS. The Russian Air Force, the Syrian Army, and the SDF in Syria, and the Iraqi popular militias and IAF in Iraq have done 95% of the work. Notably, the Russian Air Force and Syrian Army would have already wiped out ISIS if it weren't for the other Islamic fundamentalist jihadis in the country sponsored by our Tory government and their friends in Riyadh and Doha.

    Gaddafi's involvement in Lockerbie is still controversial (more likely Iran IMO), but anyway, he had long been 'rehabilitated'. Who posed a bigger threat to the UK in 2011, Gaddafi, or the islamic extremists that our Tory government helped to destroy the country and turn it into the terrorist paradise we see today (they tried to help a bunch of genocidal jihadi nutters destroy Syria too, but thankfully it looks like they failed)?

    Face it, Weak & Wobbly May and her buddies have been the extremists' best friends over the last 7 years.
    Actually it is Western arsteikes in Iraq on ISIS which may shortly enable the liberation of Mosul. Like it or not moderate rebels in Syria have to be part of the solution, Assad staying in power on his own will not bring peace to the country. While it is lax immigration policies supported by Corbyn which have given us many of the problems we have now
    Lax immigration policies that were overseen by the Conservative Home Secretary from 2010 onwards? Not Amber Rudd, well yes, Amber Rudd as well but the other one.
    This bomber's parents were admitted from Libya under the Tory government too.
    The parents were law abiding and opposed their son's radicalism
    So they knew about him
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    Gaddafi sponsored Lockerbie and the IRA so hardly kept us safe either and Corbyn would be a recipe for lax border controls and an end to arstrikes on ISIS
    The RAF has made almost zero impact on ISIS. The Russian Air Force, the Syrian Army, and the SDF in Syria, and the Iraqi popular militias and IAF in Iraq have done 95% of the work. Notably, the Russian Air Force and Syrian Army would have already wiped out ISIS if it weren't for the other Islamic fundamentalist jihadis in the country sponsored by our Tory government and their friends in Riyadh and Doha.

    Gaddafi's involvement in Lockerbie is still controversial (more likely Iran IMO), but anyway, he had long been 'rehabilitated'. Who posed a bigger threat to the UK in 2011, Gaddafi, or the islamic extremists that our Tory government helped to destroy the country and turn it into the terrorist paradise we see today (they tried to help a bunch of genocidal jihadi nutters destroy Syria too, but thankfully it looks like they failed)?

    Face it, Weak & Wobbly May and her buddies have been the extremists' best friends over the last 7 years.
    Actually it is Western arsteikes in Iraq on ISIS which may shortly enable the liberation of Mosul. Like it or not moderate rebels in Syria have to be part of the solution, Assad staying in power on his own will not bring peace to the country. While it is lax immigration policies supported by Corbyn which have given us many of the problems we have now
    Lax immigration policies that were overseen by the Conservative Home Secretary from 2010 onwards? Not Amber Rudd, well yes, Amber Rudd as well but the other one.
    When we were in the EU and if Corbyn got in it would be virtually open borders and anyone could come in
    Libya is not in the EU, nor is the Commonwealth. Theresa May did nothing about non-EU immigration, so either she is completely inept or the anti-Polish plumber faction of the Brexiteer brigade will be sadly disappointed when they discover the PM believes immigration is good for the country or the economy.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Sean_F said:

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    I don't think that it will change the result too drastically, but it has changed the narrative of the campaign after Theresas wobbly weeekend. This was already a difficult election to call with a Tory majority anywhere between 50 and 150 plausible.

    A lot depends on what happens with the resumption at the weekend. Jezza has time to get his response tuned. This is turning into an election where Brexit is barely mentioned, despite that being its justification.

    Labour's strategy of concede and move on from Brexit turned out best for them.
    Correct. Though it helps that no-one expects Labour to have to implement whatever its policy is, so there has been little examination of it.

    I think a number of us here suggested that the LibDem’s policy of ignoring the referendum result would turn out to be a disaster.

    Just as the Tories did over devolution, you have to accept the result and move on.

    The only demographic that the policy has much appeal to is the young, and Jazza has that constituency locked up with his free tuition fees.
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    edited May 2017

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    Gaddafi sponsored Lockerbie and the IRA so hardly kept us safe either and Corbyn would be a recipe for lax border controls and an end to arstrikes on ISIS
    The RAF has made almost zero impact on ISIS. The Russian Air Force, the Syrian Army, and the SDF in Syria, and the Iraqi popular militias and IAF in Iraq have done 95% of the work. Notably, the Russian Air Force and Syrian Army would have already wiped out ISIS if it weren't for the other Islamic fundamentalist jihadis in the country sponsored by our Tory government and their friends in Riyadh and Doha.

    Gaddafi's involvement in Lockerbie is still controversial (more likely Iran IMO), but anyway, he had long been 'rehabilitated'. Who posed a bigger threat to the UK in 2011, Gaddafi, or the islamic extremists that our Tory government helped to destroy the country and turn it into the terrorist paradise we see today (they tried to help a bunch of genocidal jihadi nutters destroy Syria too, but thankfully it looks like they failed)?

    Face it, Weak & Wobbly May and her buddies have been the extremists' best friends over the last 7 years.
    Actually it is Western arsteikes in Iraq on ISIS which may shortly enable the liberation of Mosul. Like it or not moderate rebels in Syria have to be part of the solution, Assad staying in power on his own will not bring peace to the country. While it is lax immigration policies supported by Corbyn which have given us many of the problems we have now
    Lax immigration policies that were overseen by the Conservative Home Secretary from 2010 onwards? Not Amber Rudd, well yes, Amber Rudd as well but the other one.
    This bomber's parents were admitted from Libya under the Tory government too.
    Not quite the way I'd look at it sunshine - how about this piece of slime chose to repay our nation's generosity to his parents by carrying out if not quite the most blood thirsty act of terrorism in our recent history certainly the most heart-breaking.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Mortimer said:

    THE SNP has not declared a significant cash donation from a member of the public in six months, making it increasingly reliant on state funding to operate.

    New Electoral Commission figures show the SNP had the lowest donations of any major party in the first quarter of 2017, at £3300, and this came was from one of its own MPs.

    At the same time, the SNP was second only to Labour in the amount it received in public funds, banking £298,635 in “Short money” from the House of Commons.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15304613.SNP_relying_on_public_funds_as_big_donors_dry_up/

    Can I hear anyone saying 'busted flush'?
    If you think the SNP, a party still riding high in the opinion polls in Scotland if a little off its peak, have access to only £3300 if they want donations, then you're not thinking. The correct question to ask is: what's happening to the money that the SNP could draw on if they wished to and why are they not trying to draw on it?
    quite so. There a 161million lottery winner who can always be called upon if required.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,253

    HYUFD said:

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    I don't think that it will change the result too drastically, but it has changed the narrative of the campaign after Theresas wobbly weeekend. This was already a difficult election to call with a Tory majority anywhere between 50 and 150 plausible.

    A lot depends on what happens with the resumption at the weekend. Jezza has time to get his response tuned. This is turning into an election where Brexit is barely mentioned, despite that being its justification.

    Brexit will allow us to greater control our borders
    So we keep being told, though this bomber was British born, as were the 7/7 bombers.

    None have had EU links.
    The stations of the fruit cakes, loonies & racists cross:

    EU!
    Refugees!
    Immigrants!
    Commonwealth!
    Muzzies!

    er, er, er...ENOCH!!!

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,316
    GeoffH said:

    Just received an email from an old school friend whom I would normally regard as sensible Labour chappie.

    "I sense the fingerprints of Lynton Crosby all over this latest wheeze to scare the electorate.
    "

    Dear God, the world really is going bonkers.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Mortimer said:

    THE SNP has not declared a significant cash donation from a member of the public in six months, making it increasingly reliant on state funding to operate.

    New Electoral Commission figures show the SNP had the lowest donations of any major party in the first quarter of 2017, at £3300, and this came was from one of its own MPs.

    At the same time, the SNP was second only to Labour in the amount it received in public funds, banking £298,635 in “Short money” from the House of Commons.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15304613.SNP_relying_on_public_funds_as_big_donors_dry_up/

    Can I hear anyone saying 'busted flush'?
    If you think the SNP, a party still riding high in the opinion polls in Scotland if a little off its peak, have access to only £3300 if they want donations, then you're not thinking. The correct question to ask is: what's happening to the money that the SNP could draw on if they wished to and why are they not trying to draw on it?
    Oh of course - I assume the key donors are holding out to waste funds on the Indy ref that is now unlikely to ever occur.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,894

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    May is a lucky lady. The army out on the streets is going to make voters vote for nurse for fear of something worse. Corbyn and security are an anathema to one another.
    I think Army on the street because there aren't enough police (cut by 20000 since 2010) and TM speech where she told the police they were scaremongering and crying wolf in 2015and further cuts were needed wont play well.

    Labour offering is more police. Tories??

    I know which I will feel safer with
  • Options
    dyingswandyingswan Posts: 189
    When the campaign starts again all the Conservatives have to do is to make this point. In serious times Jeremy Corbyn thinks that the person to oversee our police and secret service is er......Diane Abbott.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,987
    Blue_rog said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    Gaddafi sponsored Lockerbie and the IRA so hardly kept us safe either and Corbyn would be a recipe for lax border controls and an end to arstrikes on ISIS
    The RAF has made almost zero impact on ISIS. The Russian Air Force, the Syrian Army, and the SDF in Syria, and the Iraqi popular militias and IAF in Iraq have done 95% of the work. Notably, the Russian Air Force and Syrian Army would have already wiped out ISIS if it weren't for the other Islamic fundamentalist jihadis in the country sponsored by our Tory government and their friends in Riyadh and Doha.

    Gaddafi's involvement in Lockerbie is still controversial (more likely Iran IMO), but anyway, he had long been 'rehabilitated'. Who posed a bigger threat to the UK in 2011, Gaddafi, or the islamic extremists that our Tory government helped to destroy the country and turn it into the terrorist paradise we see today (they tried to help a bunch of genocidal jihadi nutters destroy Syria too, but thankfully it looks like they failed)?

    Face it, Weak & Wobbly May and her buddies have been the extremists' best friends over the last 7 years.
    Actually it is Western arsteikes in Iraq on ISIS which may shortly enable the liberation of Mosul. Like it or not moderate rebels in Syria have to be part of the solution, Assad staying in power on his own will not bring peace to the country. While it is lax immigration policies supported by Corbyn which have given us many of the problems we have now
    Lax immigration policies that were overseen by the Conservative Home Secretary from 2010 onwards? Not Amber Rudd, well yes, Amber Rudd as well but the other one.
    This bomber's parents were admitted from Libya under the Tory government too.
    The parents were law abiding and opposed their son's radicalism
    So they knew about him
    Did his parents report their suspicions to the police ? And if not, are there not laws surrounding that sort of stuff.

    Terrorism prevention begins at home.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,316
    dyingswan said:

    When the campaign starts again all the Conservatives have to do is to make this point. In serious times Jeremy Corbyn thinks that the person to oversee our police and secret service is er......Diane Abbott.

    At least there'll be more police. 300,000 was the number I last heard iirc.
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    SCON lose out after councillor suspensions

    https://twitter.com/CentralFMNews/status/867296784955179008
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    May is a lucky lady. The army out on the streets is going to make voters vote for nurse for fear of something worse. Corbyn and security are an anathema to one another.
    I think Army on the street because there aren't enough police (cut by 20000 since 2010) and TM speech where she told the police they were scaremongering and crying wolf in 2015and further cuts were needed wont play well.

    Labour offering is more police. Tories??

    I know which I will feel safer with
    Straw clutching now. This is established protocol. Or were there not enough police in 2007 either, last time it was used?
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    May is a lucky lady. The army out on the streets is going to make voters vote for nurse for fear of something worse. Corbyn and security are an anathema to one another.
    I think Army on the street because there aren't enough police (cut by 20000 since 2010) and TM speech where she told the police they were scaremongering and crying wolf in 2015and further cuts were needed wont play well.

    Labour offering is more police. Tories??

    I know which I will feel safer with

    Think again mon ami. Corbyn is not trusted with the security of the nation. his back history on terrorism is there for all to see. that's the real point..
  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    edited May 2017
    Did his parents report their suspicions to the police ? And if not, are there not laws surrounding that sort of stuff.

    Terrorism prevention begins at home.

    Exactly. We need to start holding family/community to account when it is known that someone has become radicalised.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,987
    calum said:

    SCON lose out after councillor suspensions

    https://twitter.com/CentralFMNews/status/867296784955179008

    A mile long, and an inch thick
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,988

    HYUFD said:

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    I don't think that it will change the result too drastically, but it has changed the narrative of the campaign after Theresas wobbly weeekend. This was already a difficult election to call with a Tory majority anywhere between 50 and 150 plausible.

    A lot depends on what happens with the resumption at the weekend. Jezza has time to get his response tuned. This is turning into an election where Brexit is barely mentioned, despite that being its justification.

    Brexit will allow us to greater control our borders
    So we keep being told, though this bomber was British born, as were the 7/7 bombers.

    None have had EU links.
    The stations of the fruit cakes, loonies & racists cross:

    EU!
    Refugees!
    Immigrants!
    Commonwealth!
    Muzzies!

    er, er, er...ENOCH!!!

    He was right. Mass immigration is the driver of terrorism.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    Gaddafi sponsored Lockerbie and the IRA so hardly kept us safe either and Corbyn would be a recipe for lax border controls and an end to arstrikes on ISIS
    The RAF has made almost zero impact on ISIS. The Russian Air Force, the Syrian Army, and the SDF in Syria, and the Iraqi popular militias and IAF in Iraq have done 95% of the work. Notably, the Russian Air Force and Syrian Army would have already wiped out ISIS if it weren't for the other Islamic fundamentalist jihadis in the country sponsored by our Tory government and their friends in Riyadh and Doha.

    Gaddafi's involvement in Lockerbie is still controversial (more likely Iran IMO), but anyway, he had long been 'rehabilitated'. Who posed a
    Face it, Weak & Wobbly May and her buddies have been the extremists' best friends over the last 7 years.
    Actually it is Western arsteikes in Iraq on ISIS which may shortly enable the liberation of Mosul. Like it or not moderate rebels in Syria have to be part of the solution, Assad staying in power on his own will not bring peace to the country. While it is lax immigration policies supported by Corbyn which have given us many of the problems we have now
    Lax immigration policies that were overseen by the Conservative Home Secretary from 2010 onwards? Not Amber Rudd, well yes, Amber Rudd as well but the other one.
    When we were in the EU and if Corbyn got in it would be virtually open borders and anyone could come in
    Libya is not in the EU, nor is the Commonwealth. Theresa May did nothing about non-EU immigration, so either she is completely inept or the anti-Polish plumber faction of the Brexiteer brigade will be sadly disappointed when they discover the PM believes immigration is good for the country or the economy.
    Merkel opened the floodgates to refugees from Syria etc and ISIS sympathisers could come in through that route and because of free movement they could come here, May is ending free movement. Instead she is focusing aid on refugee assistance in the Middle East itself
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Norm said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    Gaddafi sponsored Lockerbie and the IRA so hardly kept us safe either and Corbyn would be a recipe for lax border controls and an end to arstrikes on ISIS
    The RAF has made almost zero impact on ISIS. The Russian Air Force, the Syrian Army, and the SDF in Syria, and the Iraqi popular militias and IAF in Iraq have done 95% of the work. Notably, the Russian Air Force and Syrian Army would have already wiped out ISIS if it weren't for the other Islamic fundamentalist jihadis in the country sponsored by our Tory government and their friends in Riyadh and Doha.

    Gaddafi's involvement in

    Face it, Weak & Wobbly May and her buddies have been the extremists' best friends over the last 7 years.
    Actually it is Western arsteikes in Iraq on ISIS which may shortly enable the liberation of Mosul. Like it or not moderate rebels in Syria have to be part of the solution, Assad staying in power on his own will not bring peace to the country. While it is lax immigration policies supported by Corbyn which have given us many of the problems we have now
    Lax immigration policies that were overseen by the Conservative Home Secretary from 2010 onwards? Not Amber Rudd, well yes, Amber Rudd as well but the other one.
    This bomber's parents were admitted from Libya under the Tory government too.
    Not quite the way I'd look at it sunshine - how about this piece of slime chose to repay our nation's generosity to his parents by carrying out if quite not the most blood thirsty act of terrorism in our recent history certainly the most heart-breaking.
    No one is disagreeing with that, just that Brexit would not have changed a thing, and it was nothing to do with New Labour either.

    Indeed the biggest supporters of sunni jihadism were Maggie and Ronnie as part of their cold war strategy against the Soviet Afghan war. After the collapse of the Soviets there, they turned to other targets.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited May 2017
    rkrkrk said:

    Over in the US - Ossoff (D) is leading in Georgia 6th in one poll I saw.
    That was a very safe seat (61% R last time).

    If that's​ in play then where else is?

    Rather than simply looking st the swing we need to take account what the demographics of the seat is. IF the Dems win it (and they really should have won it in the first round), then other highly educated diverse disticts come into play. Barbara Comstock's VA 10th district for example looks gone to me.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    Gaddafi sponsored Lockerbie and the IRA so hardly kept us safe either and Corbyn would be a recipe for lax border controls and an end to arstrikes on ISIS
    The RAF has made almost zero impact on ISIS. The Russian Air Force, the Syrian Army, and the SDF in Syria, and the Iraqi popular militias and IAF in Iraq have done 95% of the work. Notably, the Russian Air Force and Syrian Army would have already wiped out ISIS if it weren't for the other Islamic fundamentalist jihadis in the country sponsored by our Tory government and their friends in Riyadh and Doha.

    Gaddafi's involvement in Lockerbie is still controversial (more likely Iran IMO), but anyway, he had long been 'rehabilitated'. Who posed a bigger threat to the UK in 2011, Gaddafi, or the islamic extremists that our Tory government helped to destroy the country and turn it into the terrorist paradise we see today (they tried to help a bunch of genocidal jihadi nutters destroy Syria too, but thankfully it looks like they failed)?

    Face it, Weak & Wobbly May and her buddies have been the extremists' best friends over the last 7 years.
    Actually it is Western arsteikes in Iraq on ISIS which may shortly enable the liberation of Mosul. Like it or not moderate rebels in Syria have to be part of the solution, Assad staying in power on his own will not bring peace to the country. While it is lax immigration policies supported by Corbyn which have given us many of the problems we have now
    Lax immigration policies that were overseen by the Conservative Home Secretary from 2010 onwards? Not Amber Rudd, well yes, Amber Rudd as well but the other one.
    This bomber's parents were admitted from Libya under the Tory government too.
    Yes Gaddaffi was a useful patsy for many USA and UK administration's .
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:


    It is entirely legitimate to ask of a candidate for PM whether his previously expressed views and actions and failures to act - especially for someone whose USP is meant to be his consistently held principles - show him to have the right character and judgment for PM, especially with regard to security issues.

    One of the interesting things about this campaign is that Corbyn has been industriously ditching some of his principles. He has abandoned opposition to Trident, rowed back on his oft-repeated pacifism, and distanced himself from people he used to call friends. He has also consistently flip-flopped on Europe.

    Anyone would think he was a normal politician or something - one who really does want to win. The Marx he currently most resembles is Groucho.
    The funniest change has been his support for wealthy pensioners keeping the Winter Fuel Allowance.
    And middle class kids going to University who clearly need to be subsidised by those who don't. And the parents of kids who can afford to feed their own children properly rather than concentrating on those genuinely struggling. And public sector workers with final salary pension schemes worth nearly half their salary who are still allegedly underpaid. I am not entirely sure which way up the policy on benefits ended up but I think that they were considered less worthy.

    Labour is a sad parody of itself. A party of self interested middle class virtue signallers who claim to care about the poor but are focussed on as many middle class privileges and advantages as they can glean from the system, whatever the cost.
    To take your first sentence , you and I were subsidised by 'those who didn't' attend university back in the 1960s , 70s and 80s. If it is wrong to suggest that the fotunate 35% - 40% should be supported by the 60% - 65% who do not receive the benefit of such an education , it was surely much more obscene for the 5% - 10% elite to be financed by the 90% - 95% in our own years as students.I have previously suggested that those of us who graduated over 25 years ago should be obliged to make a contribution in recognition of the benefits conferred upon us - a reduced Personal Allowance perhaps - but none of the parties shows any sign of running with such a proposal.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    May is a lucky lady. The army out on the streets is going to make voters vote for nurse for fear of something worse. Corbyn and security are an anathema to one another.
    I think Army on the street because there aren't enough police (cut by 20000 since 2010) and TM speech where she told the police they were scaremongering and crying wolf in 2015and further cuts were needed wont play well.

    Labour offering is more police. Tories??

    I know which I will feel safer with
    She was implementing Osborne's austerity which Hammond has slowed
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,419
    edited May 2017

    dyingswan said:

    When the campaign starts again all the Conservatives have to do is to make this point. In serious times Jeremy Corbyn thinks that the person to oversee our police and secret service is er......Diane Abbott.

    At least there'll be more police. 300,000 was the number I last heard iirc.
    Everyone will have their own, following to make sure we don't get up to anything naughty
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,253
    edited May 2017
    Blue_rog said:

    Exactly. We need to start holding family/community to account when it is known that someone has become radicalised.

    Internment camps, or bulldozing the families' homes perhaps?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    Blue_rog said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    Gaddafi sponsored Lockerbie and the IRA so hardly kept us safe either and Corbyn would be a recipe for lax border controls and an end to arstrikes on ISIS
    The RAF has made almost zero impact on ISIS. The Russian Air Force, the Syrian Army, and the SDF in Syria, and the Iraqi popular militias and IAF in Iraq have done 95% of the work. Notably, the Russian Air Force and Syrian Army would have already wiped out ISIS if it weren't for the other Islamic fundamentalist jihadis in the country sponsored by our Tory government and their friends in Riyadh and Doha.

    Gaddafi's involvement in Lockerbie is still controversial (more likely Iran IMO), but anyway, he had long been 'rehabilitated'. Who posed a bigger threat to the UK in 2011, Gaddafi, or the islamic extremists that our Tory government helped to destroy the country and turn it into the terrorist paradise we see today (they tried to help a bunch of genocidal jihadi nutters destroy Syria too, but thankfully it looks like they failed)?

    Face it, Weak & Wobbly May and her buddies have been the extremists' best friends over the last 7 years.
    Actually it is Western arsteikes in Iraq on ISIS which may shortly enable the liberation of Mosul. Like it or not moderate rebels in Syria have to be part of the solution, Assad staying in power on his own will not bring peace to the country. While it is lax immigration policies supported by Corbyn which have given us many of the problems we have now
    Lax immigration policies that were overseen by the Conservative Home Secretary from 2010 onwards? Not Amber Rudd, well yes, Amber Rudd as well but the other one.
    This bomber's parents were admitted from Libya under the Tory government too.
    The parents were law abiding and opposed their son's radicalism
    So they knew about him
    There is no evidence they knew he had links with ISIS or was a terror risk there is for his brother
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited May 2017
    It is interesting the profile of the terrorist. Another second generation immigrant university dropout.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,419
    HYUFD said:

    I'm not commenting on domestic politics until the national campaigns resume (tomorrow, I expect), but punters may want to note that Merkel is now running away with the prospective German vote:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    The free-market FDP, Merkel's natural allies, are doing well too. And I was talking to a left-wing Dutch politician yesterday: he is certain that the protracted negotiations will lead to a centre-right coalition there. So after this turbulent year, the EU will be dominated by centre-right governments, with the possible exception of Italy and small countries like Greece. Both the anti-immigrant right and the poipulist left are falling short everywhere, and the centre-left is getting squeezed wherever you look.

    Italy next year is the interesting one now. Beppe Grillo's populist 5* leads half the Italian polls and will likely have a majority with Forza Italia and Northern League support

    France of course is now Blairite rather than centre right
    I can't imagine 5* would want that, at all. Opposition is where they'll want to be.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,988
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Whilst the points about Libya not being in the EU & the Commonwealth are correct, most people will be hugely dismayed that we as a country gave refuge to a family fleeing from Libya, and their son carries out such an atrocity.

    Are the family to blame?

    Well, if my son ended up in prison for even a minor offence or did something highly discreditable, I’d be disappointed in him, and I’d be disappointed in me.

    I’d like to have an open & welcoming culture to refugees, but there are also obligations on the refugee family & community.

    Most of the Jewish refugees admitted in the 30s went on to become astonishingly successful in many fields. Most of the Ugandan and Kenyan Asians admitted in the 70s have been similarly successful.

    It didn’t used to happen that a second generation member from a refugee family became a bomber. They used to become professors or civic leaders or successful businessmen/women.

    There does need to be a searching examination of what is going wrong.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    It is interesting the profile of the terrorist. Another second generation immigrant university dropout.

    Very similar to 7/7 .Some of them were from Leeds.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    May is a lucky lady. The army out on the streets is going to make voters vote for nurse for fear of something worse. Corbyn and security are an anathema to one another.
    I think Army on the street because there aren't enough police (cut by 20000 since 2010) and TM speech where she told the police they were scaremongering and crying wolf in 2015and further cuts were needed wont play well.

    Labour offering is more police. Tories??

    I know which I will feel safer with
    And yet it is the Corbynistas who are crying foul on security being raised to 'severe' - it's almost as if they think their team isn't that strong on security matters and trust on that crucial issue.... why is that I wonder?
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited May 2017
    Deleted owing to internal quotes mess.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    Blue_rog said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    Gaddafi sponsored Lockerbie and the IRA so hardly kept us safe either and Corbyn would be a recipe for lax border controls and an end to arstrikes on ISIS
    The RAF has made almost zero impact on ISIS. The Russian Air Force, the Syrian Army, and the SDF in Syria, and the Iraqi popular militias and IAF in Iraq have done 95% of the work. Notably, the Russian Air Force and Syrian Army would have already wiped out ISIS if it weren't for the other Islamic fundamentalist jihadis in the country sponsored by our Tory government and their friends in Riyadh and Doha.

    Gaddafi's involvement in Lockerbie is still controversial (more likely Iran IMO), but anyway, he had long been 'rehabilitated'. Who posed a bigger threat to the UK in 2011, Gaddafi, or the islamic extremists that our Tory government helped to destroy the country and turn it into the terrorist paradise we see today (they tried to help a bunch of genocidal jihadi nutters destroy Syria too, but thankfully it looks like they failed)?

    Face it, Weak & Wobbly May and her buddies have been the extremists' best friends over the last 7 years.
    Actually it is Western arsteikes in Iraq on ISIS which may shortly enable the liberation of Mosul. Like it or not moderate rebels in Syria have to be part of the solution, Assad staying in power on his own will not bring peace to the country. While it is lax immigration policies supported by Corbyn which have given us many of the problems we have now
    Lax immigration policies that were overseen by the Conservative Home Secretary from 2010 onwards? Not Amber Rudd, well yes, Amber Rudd as well but the other one.
    This bomber's parents were admitted from Libya under the Tory government too.
    The parents were law abiding and opposed their son's radicalism
    So they knew about him
    There is no evidence they knew he had links with ISIS or was a terror risk there is for his brother
    How do you know ?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,894

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    May is a lucky lady. The army out on the streets is going to make voters vote for nurse for fear of something worse. Corbyn and security are an anathema to one another.
    I think Army on the street because there aren't enough police (cut by 20000 since 2010) and TM speech where she told the police they were scaremongering and crying wolf in 2015and further cuts were needed wont play well.

    Labour offering is more police. Tories??

    I know which I will feel safer with

    Think again mon ami. Corbyn is not trusted with the security of the nation. his back history on terrorism is there for all to see. that's the real point..
    So you supported 20000 fewer police when threat level was severe?

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    isamisam Posts: 40,988

    Blue_rog said:






    Did his parents report their suspicions to the police ? And if not, are there not laws surrounding that sort of stuff.

    Terrorism prevention begins at home.
    Exactly. We need to start holding family/community to account when it is known that someone has become radicalised.
    They should report suspicions of what, though? Just becoming more religious doesn't often lead to bombs and guns.

    Almost all the Islamic extremists that carry out these attacks are also drug users. Maybe taking drugs should be made illegal
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,987
    edited May 2017
    isam said:
    Sounds expensive down there to me though, especially that "modern living" in the north of Brent.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Blue_rog said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    HYUFD said:

    JWisemann said:

    So, in amongst the typically revolting attempts by the PB Tories to politicise an atrocity, is it a good time to reflect that the Tory government's support of violent islamic extremist jihadis in Libya and Syria probably hasn't helped keep us safe? I wonder who voted against the actions that turned Libya into a failed state and a hotbed and safe space for extremists to spread their poison abroad? Who recently went on bended knee to the biggest sponsors of global islamic fundamentalist violence? Interesting questions.

    Gaddafi sponsored Lockerbie and the IRA so hardly kept us safe either and Corbyn would be a recipe for lax border controls and an end to arstrikes on ISIS
    The RAF has made almost zero impact on ISIS. The Russian Air Force, the Syrian Army, and the SDF in Syria, and the Iraqi popular militias and IAF in Iraq have done 95% of the work. Notably, the Russian Air Force and Syrian Army would have already wiped out ISIS if it weren't for the other Islamic fundamentalist jihadis in the country sponsored by our Tory government and their friends
    Face it, Weak & Wobbly May and her buddies have been the extremists' best friends over the last 7 years.
    Actually it is Western arsteikes in Iraq on ISIS which may shortly enable the liberation of Mosul. Like it or not moderate rebels in Syria have to be part of the solution, Assad staying in power on his own will not bring peace to the country. While it is lax immigration policies supported by Corbyn which have given us many of the problems we have now
    Lax immigration policies that were overseen by the Conservative Home Secretary from 2010 onwards? Not Amber Rudd, well yes, Amber Rudd as well but the other one.
    This bomber's parents were admitted from Libya under the Tory government too.
    The parents were law abiding and opposed their son's radicalism
    So they knew about him
    There is no evidence they knew he had links with ISIS or was a terror risk there is for his brother
    How do you know ?
    They were not the problem, the son was if we had a travel ban to and from Libya, Syria and Northern Iraq this may not have happened
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    edited May 2017
    calum said:

    SCON lose out after councillor suspensions

    https://twitter.com/CentralFMNews/status/867296784955179008

    That enables Strling Tories to pose as the only alternative to the SNP
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    Yorkcity said:

    It is interesting the profile of the terrorist. Another second generation immigrant university dropout.

    Very similar to 7/7 .Some of them were from Leeds.
    Jahadi John also fitted the same profile. Also the rapper the the daily mail incorrectly suggested was jahadi John.

    The question are they been brought up with radical views, developing them at uni or finding Islamism after failing at higher education?
  • Options

    Whilst the points about Libya not being in the EU & the Commonwealth are correct, most people will be hugely dismayed that we as a country gave refuge to a family fleeing from Libya, and their son carries out such an atrocity.

    Are the family to blame?

    Well, if my son ended up in prison for even a minor offence or did something highly discreditable, I’d be disappointed in him, and I’d be disappointed in me.

    I’d like to have an open & welcoming culture to refugees, but there are also obligations on the refugee family & community.

    Most of the Jewish refugees admitted in the 30s went on to become astonishingly successful in many fields. Most of the Ugandan and Kenyan Asians admitted in the 70s have been similarly successful.

    It didn’t used to happen that a second generation member from a refugee family became a bomber. They used to become professors or civic leaders or successful businessmen/women.

    There does need to be a searching examination of what is going wrong.

    A well-reasoned position and one I'd certainly agree with.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    isam said:
    Thanks London & SE !
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,894

    Morning PB. The difficulty in betting now is identifying the fallout of Mondays atrocity. Obviously feelings will be running very high for some time, and the presence of the army and armed police will change perspectives. The country is a very different place now on Wednesday morning than it was on Monday evening. I'm tempted to get out of betting on GE17 entirely, as I really do think that the effects could be very drastic and unreadable, not to mention volatile.

    May is a lucky lady. The army out on the streets is going to make voters vote for nurse for fear of something worse. Corbyn and security are an anathema to one another.
    I think Army on the street because there aren't enough police (cut by 20000 since 2010) and TM speech where she told the police they were scaremongering and crying wolf in 2015and further cuts were needed wont play well.

    Labour offering is more police. Tories??

    I know which I will feel safer with
    And yet it is the Corbynistas who are crying foul on security being raised to 'severe' - it's almost as if they think their team isn't that strong on security matters and trust on that crucial issue.... why is that I wonder?
    Your party cut 20k police when threat level was severe did you support it?
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    DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    I'm a politically correct liberal type; but seriously, in getting together a group of 'ordinary Mancunians' the BBC has found three Muslims, a black woman, a gay white man, and a second generation Spanish immigrant....
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Blue_rog said:

    Exactly. We need to start holding family/community to account when it is known that someone has become radicalised.

    Internment camps, or bulldozing the families' homes perhaps?
    Of course, many of the Jewish refugees in the late 30s were held in internment camps until their bona fides were established.

    I remember talking to one such individual (a famous scientist, now dead).

    He said it was correct that the UK interned all German emigrees until they could be sure they were anti-Nazis.

    Even though he had been interned.

    I was astonished at his forgiveness, though he was looking back from the bounty of a subsequent hugely successful career.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:
    Sounds expensive down there to me though, especially that "modern living" in the north of Brent.
    When you're working an 18 hour day for £50 there's not much time to spend it!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I'm not commenting on domestic politics until the national campaigns resume (tomorrow, I expect), but punters may want to note that Merkel is now running away with the prospective German vote:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    The free-market FDP, Merkel's natural allies, are doing well too. And I was talking to a left-wing Dutch politician yesterday: he is certain that the protracted negotiations will lead to a centre-right coalition there. So after this turbulent year, the EU will be dominated by centre-right governments, with the possible exception of Italy and small countries like Greece. Both the anti-immigrant right and the poipulist left are falling short everywhere, and the centre-left is getting squeezed wherever you look.

    Italy next year is the interesting one now. Beppe Grillo's populist 5* leads half the Italian polls and will likely have a majority with Forza Italia and Northern League support

    France of course is now Blairite rather than centre right
    I can't imagine 5* would want that, at all. Opposition is where they'll want to be.
    All 3 will vote against Renzi if he tries to form a government whichever one of them takes power, probably with indirect support from the others. Grillo and Berlusconi united in the referendum last year to defeat Renzi
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    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Has Corbyn made a statement yet?
This discussion has been closed.