The Conservative campaign has felt pretty rubbish to me so far (and I'm usually a Conservative voter, albeit one who is now wavering). They've ceded the airwaves to Labour most days, they've relied on attack-lines which are mostly priced-in by now and they've done very little to make a positive case for themselves. That's to say nothing of a manifesto which seemed carefully crafted to annoy as many people as possible. Cameron had his flaws, but he knew the importance of putting forward an optimistic message.
So far, this has felt like a repeat of the Gordon Brown 2010 playbook: "The world's going to hell in a handcart and we'll drive the cart. But the other lot? You don't even want to think about what they might do." Didn't work in 2010 and I doubt it will work well now. If it weren't for the sheer awfulness of her opponent, I'd expect May to be behind in the polls by now.
This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.
He shouldn't be, but he is. That's why he was causing trouble with Merkel recently after that dinner that went wrong (or at least, after probably rather a lot of wine he is fairly sure went wrong).
Barnier is in charge of the EU negotiating team. The Commission will play a very minor role. May and Davis lead for the UK, with Boris supporting. Here in Barcelona, where I am attending a conference, amused bemusement at the hole the UK is digging for itself is the overriding emotion.
Well we are not filling their 100 billion hole -- can you imagine any UK leader agreeing to it.
And TM is due to say so today
Everything points to 50
We are not paying 50 either - have you seen UK polling on this - the public do not think we should pay anymore than a few billion, if that
I wonder how many of the expected 6.6 million postal votes expected to be cast have already been completed and returned, meaning that the fates of Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are largely already sealed. I've certainly done my bit for Justine in Putney!
It's good to hear that OGH is already in profit with his spread bet involving selling the Tories at 393 seats. Notwithstanding the high risks involved, this looks like a canny bet to me with him benefiting by the extent to which the Tories fail to achieve a majority of 136 which looks a big ask right now, but then you never know.
Were the polls to indicate Labour's share of the vote was continuing to climb, maybe it'll be free drinks all round at the Pre General Election PB.com get together?
This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.
He shouldn't be, but he is. That's why he was causing trouble with Merkel recently after that dinner that went wrong (or at least, after probably rather a lot of wine he is fairly sure went wrong).
Barnier is in charge of the EU negotiating team. The Commission will play a very minor role. May and Davis lead for the UK, with Boris supporting. Here in Barcelona, where I am attending a conference, amused bemusement at the hole the UK is digging for itself is the overriding emotion.
Well we are not filling their 100 billion hole -- can you imagine any UK leader agreeing to it.
And TM is due to say so today
If 100 billion spread over a number of years is the price to pay for a good Brexit deal then it is no price at all. The national intetest should come first.
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
Your wording is interesting. In your mind, regardless of the polls, you have the Tories miles ahead. This is from someone who allegedly voted Lib Dem last time.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
The polls are closing but that is inconsitent with May's popularity and huge lead on the economy.
Something does not seem right - it cannot be all down to the care policy
I am hearing more and more anti May opinions. A mile wide and an inch deep.
Perhaps avoiding debates was not such a masterstroke. Votors do not like being taken for granted.
Not surprising from those in the NHS. As far as debates are concerned she has two high profile question time debates in the next ten days for everyone to judge her on
So has Corbyn and that it be very interesting to see if he can keep his temper
Jezza is much better at working an audience than Theresa. He has shown no sign of being rattled, indeed he seems to be enjoying himself.
I have seen him rattled and he only works audiences who agree with him.
Constant questions on the IRA, his Marxist beliefs, his anti UK attitude and sending subs out with no weapons, in front of a mainly unfriendly TV audience will see him spark - he will not be able to help himself
He came out unequivocally in favour of Trident. Even I was not pleased about waste of money !
This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.
He shouldn't be, but he is. That's why he was causing trouble with Merkel recently after that dinner that went wrong (or at least, after probably rather a lot of wine he is fairly sure went wrong).
Barnier is in charge of the EU negotiating team. The Commission will play a very minor role. May and Davis lead for the UK, with Boris supporting. Here in Barcelona, where I am attending a conference, amused bemusement at the hole the UK is digging for itself is the overriding emotion.
Well we are not filling their 100 billion hole -- can you imagine any UK leader agreeing to it.
And TM is due to say so today
Everything points to 50
We are not paying 50 either - have you seen UK polling on this - the public do not think we should pay anymore than a few billion, if that
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
Your wording is interesting. In your mind, regardless of the polls, you have the Tories miles ahead. This is from someone who allegedly voted Lib Dem last time.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
Fundamentally, these polls invite me to choose from two options:
1. They are wrong, like they were last time 2. A much greater proportion of the electorate than I previously thought are infantilised idiots, i.e. I haven't a bloody clue what's going on in this country anymore
Under those circumstances, which way would you jump?
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
Your wording is interesting. In your mind, regardless of the polls, you have the Tories miles ahead. This is from someone who allegedly voted Lib Dem last time.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
The polls are closing but that is inconsitent with May's popularity and huge lead on the economy.
Something does not seem right - it cannot be all down to the care policy
I am hearing more and more anti May opinions. A mile wide and an inch deep.
Perhaps avoiding debates was not such a masterstroke. Votors do not like being taken for granted.
Not surprising from those in the NHS. As far as debates are concerned she has two high profile question time debates in the next ten days for everyone to judge her on
So has Corbyn and that it be very interesting to see if he can keep his temper
Jezza is much better at working an audience than Theresa. He has shown no sign of being rattled, indeed he seems to be enjoying himself.
I have seen him rattled and he only works audiences who agree with him.
Constant questions on the IRA, his Marxist beliefs, his anti UK attitude and sending subs out with no weapons, in front of a mainly unfriendly TV audience will see him spark - he will not be able to help himself
He came out unequivocally in favour of Trident. Even I was not pleased about waste of money !
Nonsense - his whole life, stop the war campaigns, his whole being wants it scrapped and the public are not fooled. Has he said he will fire a nuclear weapon in defence of our Country at anytime
This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.
He shouldn't be, but he is. That's why he was causing trouble with Merkel recently after that dinner that went wrong (or at least, after probably rather a lot of wine he is fairly sure went wrong).
Barnier is in charge of the EU negotiating team. The Commission will play a very minor role. May and Davis lead for the UK, with Boris supporting. Here in Barcelona, where I am attending a conference, amused bemusement at the hole the UK is digging for itself is the overriding emotion.
Well we are not filling their 100 billion hole -- can you imagine any UK leader agreeing to it.
And TM is due to say so today
Everything points to 50
We are not paying 50 either - have you seen UK polling on this - the public do not think we should pay anymore than a few billion, if that
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
Your wording is interesting. In your mind, regardless of the polls, you have the Tories miles ahead. This is from someone who allegedly voted Lib Dem last time.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
The polls are closing but that is inconsitent with May's popularity and huge lead on the economy.
Something does not seem right - it cannot be all down to the care policy
I am hearing more and more anti May opinions. A mile wide and an inch deep.
Perhaps avoiding debates was not such a masterstroke. Votors do not like being taken for granted.
Not surprising from those in the NHS. As far as debates are concerned she has two high profile question time debates in the next ten days for everyone to judge her on
So has Corbyn and that it be very interesting to see if he can keep his temper
Jezza is much better at working an audience than Theresa. He has shown no sign of being rattled, indeed he seems to be enjoying himself.
I have seen him rattled and he only works audiences who agree with him.
Constant questions on the IRA, his Marxist beliefs, his anti UK attitude and sending subs out with no weapons, in front of a mainly unfriendly TV audience will see him spark - he will not be able to help himself
He came out unequivocally in favour of Trident. Even I was not pleased about waste of money !
Nonsense - his whole life, stop the war campaigns, his whole being wants it scrapped and the public are not fooled. Has he said he will fire a nuclear weapon in defence of our Country at anytime
This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.
He shouldn't be, but he is. That's why he was causing trouble with Merkel recently after that dinner that went wrong (or at least, after probably rather a lot of wine he is fairly sure went wrong).
Barnier is in charge of the EU negotiating team. The Commission will play a very minor role. May and Davis lead for the UK, with Boris supporting. Here in Barcelona, where I am attending a conference, amused bemusement at the hole the UK is digging for itself is the overriding emotion.
Well we are not filling their 100 billion hole -- can you imagine any UK leader agreeing to it.
And TM is due to say so today
Everything points to 50
We are not paying 50 either - have you seen UK polling on this - the public do not think we should pay anymore than a few billion, if that
To be served at a food bank, don't you have to show that you are claiming Social Security benefits?
I'd hope not.
Otherwise where how would someone whose benefits have been sanctioned or whose life is too chaotic for them to engage with bureaucracy get help?
Debt could lead to someone on £15,000 being unable to afford food one week. If they are pregnant I'd imagine that a health visitor would be likely to give them a food bank referral.
This page has statistics on reasons people use foodbanks
You don't qualify for benefits just because you are in debt,. and one of the categories they record is "has no recourse to public funds". The latter category doesn't account for a significant proportion of referrals, but clearly some people who aren't receiving benefits use food banks.
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
Your wording is interesting. In your mind, regardless of the polls, you have the Tories miles ahead. This is from someone who allegedly voted Lib Dem last time.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
The polls are closing but that is inconsitent with May's popularity and huge lead on the economy.
Something does not seem right - it cannot be all down to the care policy
I am hearing more and more anti May opinions. A mile wide and an inch deep.
Perhaps avoiding debates was not such a masterstroke. Votors do not like being taken for granted.
Not surprising from those in the NHS. As far as debates are concerned she has two high profile question time debates in the next ten days for everyone to judge her on
So has Corbyn and that it be very interesting to see if he can keep his temper
Jezza is much better at working an audience than Theresa. He has shown no sign of being rattled, indeed he seems to be enjoying himself.
I have seen him rattled and he only works audiences who agree with him.
Constant questions on the IRA, his Marxist beliefs, his anti UK attitude and sending subs out with no weapons, in front of a mainly unfriendly TV audience will see him spark - he will not be able to help himself
He came out unequivocally in favour of Trident. Even I was not pleased about waste of money !
Nonsense - his whole life, stop the war campaigns, his whole being wants it scrapped and the public are not fooled. Has he said he will fire a nuclear weapon in defence of our Country at anytime
If he had said he was against Trident, you would have lapped it up. Now he has said unequivocally he supports Trident, you dismiss that. Basically, you are an alt-Right headbanger.
This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.
He shouldn't be, but he is. That's why he was causing trouble with Merkel recently after that dinner that went wrong (or at least, after probably rather a lot of wine he is fairly sure went wrong).
Barnier is in charge of the EU negotiating team. The Commission will play a very minor role. May and Davis lead for the UK, with Boris supporting. Here in Barcelona, where I am attending a conference, amused bemusement at the hole the UK is digging for itself is the overriding emotion.
Well we are not filling their 100 billion hole -- can you imagine any UK leader agreeing to it.
And TM is due to say so today
If 100 billion spread over a number of years is the price to pay for a good Brexit deal then it is no price at all. The national intetest should come first.
The national interest does not include 100 billion to the EU under any circumstances and it is not saleable to the UK electorate
Just imagine what we could do with thar money ourselves
The EU need to realise we are leaving and it will be at a cost to them
If he had said he was against Trident, you would have lapped it up. Now he has said unequivocally he supports Trident, you dismiss that. Basically, you are an alt-Right headbanger.
Just so I am clear - May can't change her mind on having an early election, but Corybn can change his mind on some deeply-held views like nuclear weapons? OK.
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
Your wording is interesting. In your mind, regardless of the polls, you have the Tories miles ahead. This is from someone who allegedly voted Lib Dem last time.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
Fundamentally, these polls invite me to choose from two options:
1. They are wrong, like they were last time 2. A much greater proportion of the electorate than I previously thought are infantilised idiots, i.e. I haven't a bloody clue what's going on in this country anymore
Under those circumstances, which way would you jump?
To be served at a food bank, don't you have to show that you are claiming Social Security benefits?
I'd hope not.
Otherwise where how would someone whose benefits have been sanctioned or whose life is too chaotic for them to engage with bureaucracy get help?
Debt could lead to someone on £15,000 being unable to afford food one week. If they are pregnant I'd imagine that a health visitor would be likely to give them a food bank referral.
This page has statistics on reasons people use foodbanks
You don't qualify for benefits just because you are in debt,. and one of the categories they record is "has no recourse to public funds". The latter category doesn't account for a significant proportion of referrals, but clearly some people who aren't receiving benefits use food banks.
You can get vouchers from a number of places including the CAB, social workers and churches. You do not have to be claiming benefits. I remember once I arranged some for somebody who had been mugged.
This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.
He shouldn't be, but he is. That's why he was causing trouble with Merkel recently after that dinner that went wrong (or at least, after probably rather a lot of wine he is fairly sure went wrong).
Barnier is in charge of the EU negotiating team. The Commission will play a very minor role. May and Davis lead for the UK, with Boris supporting. Here in Barcelona, where I am attending a conference, amused bemusement at the hole the UK is digging for itself is the overriding emotion.
Well we are not filling their 100 billion hole -- can you imagine any UK leader agreeing to it.
And TM is due to say so today
If 100 billion spread over a number of years is the price to pay for a good Brexit deal then it is no price at all. The national intetest should come first.
The national interest does not include 100 billion to the EU under any circumstances and it is not saleable to the UK electorate
Just imagine what we could do with thar money ourselves
The EU need to realise we are leaving and it will be at a cost to them
I fear you should be sticking with UKIP? If you vote Tory this time you are only going to end up disappointed.
This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.
He shouldn't be, but he is. That's why he was causing trouble with Merkel recently after that dinner that went wrong (or at least, after probably rather a lot of wine he is fairly sure went wrong).
Barnier is in charge of the EU negotiating team. The Commission will play a very minor role. May and Davis lead for the UK, with Boris supporting. Here in Barcelona, where I am attending a conference, amused bemusement at the hole the UK is digging for itself is the overriding emotion.
Well we are not filling their 100 billion hole -- can you imagine any UK leader agreeing to it.
And TM is due to say so today
If 100 billion spread over a number of years is the price to pay for a good Brexit deal then it is no price at all. The national intetest should come first.
The national interest does not include 100 billion to the EU under any circumstances and it is not saleable to the UK electorate
Just imagine what we could do with thar money ourselves
The EU need to realise we are leaving and it will be at a cost to them
It won't need to be saleable to the electorate, post-GE. It will need to be saleable to parliament, Tory MPs in particular.
This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.
He shouldn't be, but he is. That's why he was causing trouble with Merkel recently after that dinner that went wrong (or at least, after probably rather a lot of wine he is fairly sure went wrong).
Barnier is in charge of the EU negotiating team. The Commission will play a very minor role. May and Davis lead for the UK, with Boris supporting. Here in Barcelona, where I am attending a conference, amused bemusement at the hole the UK is digging for itself is the overriding emotion.
Well we are not filling their 100 billion hole -- can you imagine any UK leader agreeing to it.
And TM is due to say so today
If 100 billion spread over a number of years is the price to pay for a good Brexit deal then it is no price at all. The national intetest should come first.
The national interest does not include 100 billion to the EU under any circumstances and it is not saleable to the UK electorate
Just imagine what we could do with thar money ourselves
The EU need to realise we are leaving and it will be at a cost to them
I think there would a national campaign to boycott all EU produced goods and services if they seriously tried to bill us for leaving. Heads of government in the individual member states would have no option but to overrule them.
We don't know. None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding.
In any event, the headline VI numbers showing a gap of "only" 9% are still contradicting the secondary questions and other evidence. They are probably wrong.
"None of the three pollsters that have put Labour consistently sub-30% has reported recently. If they start coming out magically with 34-35% then we may have to contemplate the prospect of herding."
So even then it cannot be true. It must be herding.
The polls are closing but that is inconsitent with May's popularity and huge lead on the economy.
Something does not seem right - it cannot be all down to the care policy
I am hearing more and more anti May opinions. A mile wide and an inch deep.
Perhaps avoiding debates was not such a masterstroke. Votors do not like being taken for granted.
Not surprising from those in the NHS. As far as debates are concerned she has two high profile question time debates in the next ten days for everyone to judge her on
So has Corbyn and that it be very interesting to see if he can keep his temper
Jezza is much better at working an audience than Theresa. He has shown no sign of being rattled, indeed he seems to be enjoying himself.
I have seen him rattled and he only works audiences who agree with him.
Constant questions on the IRA, his Marxist beliefs, his anti UK attitude and sending subs out with no weapons, in front of a mainly unfriendly TV audience will see him spark - he will not be able to help himself
He came out unequivocally in favour of Trident. Even I was not pleased about waste of money !
Nonsense - his whole life, stop the war campaigns, his whole being wants it scrapped and the public are not fooled. Has he said he will fire a nuclear weapon in defence of our Country at anytime
If he had said he was against Trident, you would have lapped it up. Now he has said unequivocally he supports Trident, you dismiss that. Basically, you are an alt-Right headbanger.
'If he had said he was against Trident, you would have lapped it up. Now he has said unequivocally he supports Trident, you dismiss that. Basically, you are an alt-Right headbanger.'
You are out of order and need to retract that last accusation . Insulting someone when you are losing is the sign of weakness.
Use a better argument rather than insult a huge part of the British public who support the nuclear defence of our Country,
'If he had said he was against Trident, you would have lapped it up. Now he has said unequivocally he supports Trident, you dismiss that. Basically, you are an alt-Right headbanger.'
You are out of order and need to retract that last accusation . Insulting someone when you are losing is the sign of weakness.
Use a better argument rather than insult a huge part of the British public who support the nuclear defence of our Country,
Big_G_NorthWales.. I thought that was surbiton giving a compliment.
This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.
He shouldn't be, but he is. That's why he was causing trouble with Merkel recently after that dinner that went wrong (or at least, after probably rather a lot of wine he is fairly sure went wrong).
Barnier is in charge of the EU negotiating team. The Commission will play a very minor role. May and Davis lead for the UK, with Boris supporting. Here in Barcelona, where I am attending a conference, amused bemusement at the hole the UK is digging for itself is the overriding emotion.
Well we are not filling their 100 billion hole -- can you imagine any UK leader agreeing to it.
And TM is due to say so today
If 100 billion spread over a number of years is the price to pay for a good Brexit deal then it is no price at all. The national intetest should come first.
The national interest does not include 100 billion to the EU under any circumstances and it is not saleable to the UK electorate
Just imagine what we could do with thar money ourselves
The EU need to realise we are leaving and it will be at a cost to them
I fear you should be sticking with UKIP? If you vote Tory this time you are only going to end up disappointed.
For clarification - I have never supported Farage or UKIP who are a million miles from my views but I want to leave the EU like most conservatives.
'If he had said he was against Trident, you would have lapped it up. Now he has said unequivocally he supports Trident, you dismiss that. Basically, you are an alt-Right headbanger.'
You are out of order and need to retract that last accusation . Insulting someone when you are losing is the sign of weakness.
Use a better argument rather than insult a huge part of the British public who support the nuclear defence of our Country,
Well I think my bet that Labour will get the most votes excluding the Tories is looking pretty good. What a bizarre bet to offer that was, even at odds on.
The Tories have had a very poor campaign so far. There is little of the message discipline we saw in 2015. They started with the strong and stable motif but their diversion into Social Care and Winter Fuel Allowance was unwise. They are clearly expecting to make substantial savings from the latter but are being very vague about what means testing means causing uncertainty.
I am still waiting for a clear vision of the sort of country May wants to shape. Maybe we will get that in the interviews coming up but she was famous in the Home Office for giving interviews where she spoke a lot and said nothing. She needs to up her game as leader and give a picture of what she wants to achieve as PM.
This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.
He shouldn't be, but he is. That's why he was causing trouble with Merkel recently after that dinner that went wrong (or at least, after probably rather a lot of wine he is fairly sure went wrong).
Barnier is in charge of the EU negotiating team. The Commission will play a very minor role. May and Davis lead for the UK, with Boris supporting. Here in Barcelona, where I am attending a conference, amused bemusement at the hole the UK is digging for itself is the overriding emotion.
Well we are not filling their 100 billion hole -- can you imagine any UK leader agreeing to it.
And TM is due to say so today
I wonder whether it will have the effect she thinks it will. Won't most people say... Well obviously? I doubt person in the street has been following closely how much the EU is requesting.
Well I think my bet that Labour will get the most votes excluding the Tories is looking pretty good. What a bizarre bet to offer that was, even at odds on.
The Tories have had a very poor campaign so far. There is little of the message discipline we saw in 2015. They started with the strong and stable motif but their diversion into Social Care and Winter Fuel Allowance was unwise. They are clearly expecting to make substantial savings from the latter but are being very vague about what means testing means causing uncertainty.
I am still waiting for a clear vision of the sort of country May wants to shape. Maybe we will get that in the interviews coming up but she was famous in the Home Office for giving interviews where she spoke a lot and said nothing. She needs to up her game as leader and give a picture of what she wants to achieve as PM.
Isn't she off to tbe G7 this weekend, so will not be campaigning?
Survation have Labour polling the same in their phone poll that Ipsos did in theirs before the manifestos in this 58% Remain telephone sample.
I know they try to re-weight these things, but.......
It is clear the Tories need to up their game, though there is little sign of their UKIP switchers disappearing. It's their own core that are starting to have doubts.
Well I think my bet that Labour will get the most votes excluding the Tories is looking pretty good. What a bizarre bet to offer that was, even at odds on.
The Tories have had a very poor campaign so far. There is little of the message discipline we saw in 2015. They started with the strong and stable motif but their diversion into Social Care and Winter Fuel Allowance was unwise. They are clearly expecting to make substantial savings from the latter but are being very vague about what means testing means causing uncertainty.
I am still waiting for a clear vision of the sort of country May wants to shape. Maybe we will get that in the interviews coming up but she was famous in the Home Office for giving interviews where she spoke a lot and said nothing. She needs to up her game as leader and give a picture of what she wants to achieve as PM.
Winning the chance to govern the country for the next five years is supposed to be difficult. May campaigns with breathtaking complacency clearing expecting that her path to the job should be easy.
For people emoting about how terrible a 50 seat majority is, please remember than it's the largest majority that the Tories will have won since 1987.
I still think they are looking a majority of about 100. They got 331 the last time (including the Speaker). To have a majority of 100 they need to have 375, a gain of 44. They will probably get 5 from Scotland and they have a pick up from UKIP. So they need 38 gains from Labour and the Lib Dems. That looks easily doable. If their vote share is mid 40s it is very unlikely there will be any losses.
True. The cybernats were awful. But I have a question.
Why does a nurse need to go to a food bank ? I understand Scottish nurses gets paid more than nurses in England. So is that an SNP problem or are there specific matters concerning the person herself ?
The SNP can't have it both ways - going on & on about 'evil Torea food banks' then personally attacking a Scottish nurse when she challenges the First Minister on them.....the SNP's days of blaming everything on Westminster are in the past.....
I noticed you avoided answering the question. My point there maybe personal matters involved, maybe not.
General question: Are Nurses all over the UK going to food banks ? Even 5% of them.
That would be awful. I know our nurses are not well paid. But going to Food Banks ?
The limited reporting (Spectator) that I saw said she never mentioned food banks. This was introduced into the debate later by someone (I assume SNP) criticising her
For people emoting about how terrible a 50 seat majority is, please remember than it's the largest majority that the Tories will have won since 1987.
In many ways, a working majority is great, enough to cover the brexit loons,. the huge majority is always the seed (or seems to be) for the future defeat. The Tories will lose eventually, they just need to time is so the Corbyn loons are not running the asylum.
Well I think my bet that Labour will get the most votes excluding the Tories is looking pretty good. What a bizarre bet to offer that was, even at odds on.
The Tories have had a very poor campaign so far. There is little of the message discipline we saw in 2015. They started with the strong and stable motif but their diversion into Social Care and Winter Fuel Allowance was unwise. They are clearly expecting to make substantial savings from the latter but are being very vague about what means testing means causing uncertainty.
I am still waiting for a clear vision of the sort of country May wants to shape. Maybe we will get that in the interviews coming up but she was famous in the Home Office for giving interviews where she spoke a lot and said nothing. She needs to up her game as leader and give a picture of what she wants to achieve as PM.
Winning the chance to govern the country for the next five years is supposed to be difficult. May campaigns with breathtaking complacency clearing expecting that her path to the job should be easy.
I think that is fair comment. Also, in an election where no one really expects them to win, Labour are getting pretty much a free pass. It really doesn't matter how ridiculous their promises are when no one expects them to be implemented. People are looking for May to win them over and she looks like she is taking them for granted, hence the rise in the alternative, no matter how absurd.
Well I think my bet that Labour will get the most votes excluding the Tories is looking pretty good. What a bizarre bet to offer that was, even at odds on.
The Tories have had a very poor campaign so far. There is little of the message discipline we saw in 2015. They started with the strong and stable motif but their diversion into Social Care and Winter Fuel Allowance was unwise. They are clearly expecting to make substantial savings from the latter but are being very vague about what means testing means causing uncertainty.
I am still waiting for a clear vision of the sort of country May wants to shape. Maybe we will get that in the interviews coming up but she was famous in the Home Office for giving interviews where she spoke a lot and said nothing. She needs to up her game as leader and give a picture of what she wants to achieve as PM.
Since she became PM she hasn't presented one single policy (and there haven't been many) without either a u-turn or a bungled presentation/message. It's risible.
For people emoting about how terrible a 50 seat majority is, please remember than it's the largest majority that the Tories will have won since 1987.
In many ways, a working majority is great, enough to cover the brexit loons,. the huge majority is always the seed (or seems to be) for the future defeat. The Tories will lose eventually, they just need to time is so the Corbyn loons are not running the asylum.
Except for the fear (and indeed probability) that this election will send more 'loons' to Parliament, of both types.
This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.
He shouldn't be, but he is. That's why he was causing trouble with Merkel recently after that dinner that went wrong (or at least, after probably rather a lot of wine he is fairly sure went wrong).
Barnier is in charge of the EU negotiating team. The Commission will play a very minor role. May and Davis lead for the UK, with Boris supporting. Here in Barcelona, where I am attending a conference, amused bemusement at the hole the UK is digging for itself is the overriding emotion.
Well we are not filling their 100 billion hole -- can you imagine any UK leader agreeing to it.
And TM is due to say so today
If 100 billion spread over a number of years is the price to pay for a good Brexit deal then it is no price at all. The national intetest should come first.
The national interest does not include 100 billion to the EU under any circumstances and it is not saleable to the UK electorate
Just imagine what we could do with thar money ourselves
The EU need to realise we are leaving and it will be at a cost to them
The national interest involves getting the best posdible Brexit deal.
For people emoting about how terrible a 50 seat majority is, please remember than it's the largest majority that the Tories will have won since 1987.
Regardless, it's a derisory performance against Corbyn, particularly with UKIP and the Lib Dems in tatters.
Better than the posh boys ever managed...
Why? The 'posh boys' took a party that had been out of power for eight years, gained 120-odd seats over two general elections, and against an opposition that was much more unified and credible.
May should romp away with this election. Perhaps she still will. But she's only getting the opportunity because of the 'posh boys' you deride.
For people emoting about how terrible a 50 seat majority is, please remember than it's the largest majority that the Tories will have won since 1987.
Regardless, it's a derisory performance against Corbyn, particularly with UKIP and the Lib Dems in tatters.
Better than the posh boys ever managed...
As you well know had Dave become PM last year under the same circumstances he would be well ahead of where TM is now. She would have lost to Miliband in 2015. Still waiting to hear if you've found any policies she hasn't bungled or nicked from Labour yet?
Since she became PM she hasn't presented one single policy (and there haven't been many) without either a u-turn or a bungled presentation/message. It's risible.
Since she became PM she hasn't presented one single policy (and there haven't been many) without either a u-turn or a bungled presentation/message. It's risible.
Now, now. We still have "Brexit means Brexit?
And it's red white and blue.....we can all sleep easier now.
A number of posters are suggesting that a Tory majority of around 50 will be a relative failure for them. (Only facing a party led by Corbyn, unrealistic spending plans, etc)
I trust that if the Tories do indeed get a majority of around 50 on June 8th that there will be no Tory Triumphalism then? Just the start of sober analysis of reasons for the failure.
Can we have a show of hands; how many PB Tories, concerned that Tezza is going to lose an unlosable election, still think she will negotiate a 'good' brexit deal?
Well I think my bet that Labour will get the most votes excluding the Tories is looking pretty good. What a bizarre bet to offer that was, even at odds on.
The Tories have had a very poor campaign so far. There is little of the message discipline we saw in 2015. They started with the strong and stable motif but their diversion into Social Care and Winter Fuel Allowance was unwise. They are clearly expecting to make substantial savings from the latter but are being very vague about what means testing means causing uncertainty.
I am still waiting for a clear vision of the sort of country May wants to shape. Maybe we will get that in the interviews coming up but she was famous in the Home Office for giving interviews where she spoke a lot and said nothing. She needs to up her game as leader and give a picture of what she wants to achieve as PM.
I've never known a Conservative campaign to look good at the time. I thought 2015 was a shambles, at the time, like 1987 and 1992. But, victory makes all things look good.
Can we have a show of hands; how many PB Tories, concerned that Tezza is going to lose an unlosable election, still think she will negotiate a 'good' brexit deal?
Tut tut. Didn't Humphrey teach you anything about leading questions?
Congratulations to 'The Man' for topping the league this season scoring 2,278 points and coming 17,765th in the whole competition (from 4,503,345 players) which is top 0.39%.
This was achieved despite the obvious drawback of being a Baggies fan.
The 'bridesmaid' second prize appropriately goes to a certain Spurs fan [cough] and third to TLG's XI outperforming his own team by actually making it in to the hallowed PB top 4.....
The also ran's saw 4th placed Liverpool fan and occasional trawlerman, TSE, match his own team's performance whereas a certain Leicester 'fox' fan saw his own PB Fantasy position match his teams return to earth this season ending up 9th.
The battle for bottom came down to just 1 point in the end (1,521 vs 1,522 points) with Liverpool City Tigers just behind 3 quidder and able to claim last place with a position of 3,433,379.
Which co-incidentally is how much each new policeman will cost when Diane Abbot sweeps in to the Home Office as now anticipated by more flaky PB community members.
True. The cybernats were awful. But I have a question.
Why does a nurse need to go to a food bank ? I understand Scottish nurses gets paid more than nurses in England. So is that an SNP problem or are there specific matters concerning the person herself ?
The SNP can't have it both ways - going on & on about 'evil Torea food banks' then personally attacking a Scottish nurse when she challenges the First Minister on them.....the SNP's days of blaming everything on Westminster are in the past.....
I noticed you avoided answering the question. My point there maybe personal matters involved, maybe not.
General question: Are Nurses all over the UK going to food banks ? Even 5% of them.
That would be awful. I know our nurses are not well paid. But going to Food Banks ?
The limited reporting (Spectator) that I saw said she never mentioned food banks. This was introduced into the debate later by someone (I assume SNP) criticising her
Can we have a show of hands; how many PB Tories, concerned that Tezza is going to lose an unlosable election, still think she will negotiate a 'good' brexit deal?
She will be fine.
All that has happened in the last week or two is the fringe left has coalesced around Labour while tribal loyalty kicks in with their usual vote.
May has been blunt about pensioners, so there's a temporary move from Tory to undecided that is likely to reverse on 8 June.
With DNV's taken out, Tory leads are tending to be 2-3 points higher than the headline numbers.
This election campaign has confirmed one thing: the UK's Brexit future is in the hands of cretins.
We already knew that. But unfortunately there's no way of getting rid of Juncker.
Juncker's not on the EU negotiating team. Unfortunately for us, May and Davis are on the UK one.
He shouldn't be, but he is. That's why he was causing trouble with Merkel recently after that dinner that went wrong (or at least, after probably rather a lot of wine he is fairly sure went wrong).
Barnier is in charge of the EU negotiating team. The Commission will play a very minor role. May and Davis lead for the UK, with Boris supporting. Here in Barcelona, where I am attending a conference, amused bemusement at the hole the UK is digging for itself is the overriding emotion.
Well we are not filling their 100 billion hole -- can you imagine any UK leader agreeing to it.
And TM is due to say so today
I wonder whether it will have the effect she thinks it will. Won't most people say... Well obviously? I doubt person in the street has been following closely how much the EU is requesting.
It doesn't matter what TM says today - there's no way she can know today what the final deal will look like. If the legal decision is that the UK owes x billion, then the UK will pay x billion. She/we will do this because paying the money is not as bad as hanging our businesses out to dry.
And it's at that point that the politicians will start to blame the Brexit voters - that it wasn't the Tory government's decision to Leave... This will of course sound a bit rich coming from a leadership that's rebranded itself as the Kings of Brexit in order to win an election.
It doesn't matter what TM says today - there's no way she can know today what the final deal will look like. If the legal decision is that the UK owes x billion, then the UK will pay x billion. She/we will do this because paying the money is not as bad as hanging our businesses out to dry.
And it's at that point that the politicians will start to blame the Brexit voters - that it wasn't the Tory government's decision to Leave... This will of course sound a bit rich coming from a leadership that's rebranded itself as the Kings of Brexit in order to win an election.
I think the amount paid will be determined by politics not law.
The problem she has is that almost any amount will seem too much to the general public.
For people emoting about how terrible a 50 seat majority is, please remember than it's the largest majority that the Tories will have won since 1987.
Regardless, it's a derisory performance against Corbyn, particularly with UKIP and the Lib Dems in tatters.
5 years plus keeps Corbyn in place for at least another couple of years? You get through Brexit and then look to secure a transformational majority in '22
Labour will abolish tuition fees starting from September (students starting in September have the 1st year retrospectively written off, with official abolition from 2018). Regardless of how feasible or sensible it is as a policy, it is good politics. It is immediate, there are plenty of upcoming students or current students who stand to directly benefit from that measure. There will be normally Tory middle class households suddenly realising that their child may be able to avoid 9000 a year fees. It cuts through in a way that some longer 'abolish by 2020' plan wouldn't. If Labour can get people talking about this, perhaps they actually can increase youth turnout for once?
All models and polling currently assume pretty crap youth turnout right? What if we actually see the youth turn up for Corbyn in this election - especially now that he has actually given them a cash incentive to do so? Is a depressed elderly turnout in response to the dementia tax going to collide with higher youth turnout, upending our assumed patterns of voting?
We should remember that everyone was caught off guard by the high turnout of the working classes in the EU referendum (all projections for a Leave win were based on the idea that there would be low turnout, not high turnout), another group with a less than stellar turnout record. It's not unreasonable to think it could happen again.
Well I think my bet that Labour will get the most votes excluding the Tories is looking pretty good. What a bizarre bet to offer that was, even at odds on.
The Tories have had a very poor campaign so far. There is little of the message discipline we saw in 2015. They started with the strong and stable motif but their diversion into Social Care and Winter Fuel Allowance was unwise. They are clearly expecting to make substantial savings from the latter but are being very vague about what means testing means causing uncertainty.
I am still waiting for a clear vision of the sort of country May wants to shape. Maybe we will get that in the interviews coming up but she was famous in the Home Office for giving interviews where she spoke a lot and said nothing. She needs to up her game as leader and give a picture of what she wants to achieve as PM.
Since she became PM she hasn't presented one single policy (and there haven't been many) without either a u-turn or a bungled presentation/message. It's risible.
I lived in Maidenhead for 12 years and she is an exceptionally conscientious MP. I think she has got the basic mix of policy right to maximise the Tory vote too. The problem is I think that she isn't a team player and tries to do too much of the work herself, so it ends up not being done as thoroughly as it should. I think she might be another Gordon Brown in that respect.
The chances of a majority of near 150+ a la Thatcher 1983 or Blair 1997 or 2001 are now gone I think instead May will have to aim for Blair 2005 or at most Thatcher 1987 if she wants to see a reasonable increase in her majority. The 9% lead in this poll UK wide is still more than the 7% Cameron got but May needs to squeeze 2 to 3% from Labour if it is to be anything significant
Well I think my bet that Labour will get the most votes excluding the Tories is looking pretty good. What a bizarre bet to offer that was, even at odds on.
The Tories have had a very poor campaign so far. There is little of the message discipline we saw in 2015. They started with the strong and stable motif but their diversion into Social Care and Winter Fuel Allowance was unwise. They are clearly expecting to make substantial savings from the latter but are being very vague about what means testing means causing uncertainty.
I am still waiting for a clear vision of the sort of country May wants to shape. Maybe we will get that in the interviews coming up but she was famous in the Home Office for giving interviews where she spoke a lot and said nothing. She needs to up her game as leader and give a picture of what she wants to achieve as PM.
I've never known a Conservative campaign to look good at the time. I thought 2015 was a shambles, at the time, like 1987 and 1992. But, victory makes all things look good.
The 2015 Tory campaign started off with those posters of Shiny Happy Airbrushed Cameron and then moved on through various unsteadiness to the point of donors getting jumpy and telling them to pull their bloody socks up.
Then Ed tried to eat a sandwich and went shopping for a garden ornament.....
Well I think my bet that Labour will get the most votes excluding the Tories is looking pretty good. What a bizarre bet to offer that was, even at odds on.
The Tories have had a very poor campaign so far. There is little of the message discipline we saw in 2015. They started with the strong and stable motif but their diversion into Social Care and Winter Fuel Allowance was unwise. They are clearly expecting to make substantial savings from the latter but are being very vague about what means testing means causing uncertainty.
I am still waiting for a clear vision of the sort of country May wants to shape. Maybe we will get that in the interviews coming up but she was famous in the Home Office for giving interviews where she spoke a lot and said nothing. She needs to up her game as leader and give a picture of what she wants to achieve as PM.
I've never known a Conservative campaign to look good at the time. I thought 2015 was a shambles, at the time, like 1987 and 1992. But, victory makes all things look good.
Agree that 2015 seemed awful at times. Luckily Ed shot himself in the foot ultimately (Ed Stone etc). TM seems determined to follow his lead. Don't know why? Hubris maybe.. Dangerously inept though.
It doesn't matter what TM says today - there's no way she can know today what the final deal will look like. If the legal decision is that the UK owes x billion, then the UK will pay x billion. She/we will do this because paying the money is not as bad as hanging our businesses out to dry.
And it's at that point that the politicians will start to blame the Brexit voters - that it wasn't the Tory government's decision to Leave... This will of course sound a bit rich coming from a leadership that's rebranded itself as the Kings of Brexit in order to win an election.
I think the amount paid will be determined by politics not law.
The problem she has is that almost any amount will seem too much to the general public.
Exactly - but that also means that the political cost is identical whatever is paid, but handing over a pile of cash will make the negotiations a lot easier. I advise investing in upmarket office furniture supply companies in the Brussels area.
Is it confirmed this Timothy chap is the mastermind behind this social care shambles? Or just speculation? Are these things not wargamed? "Ok, pretend you are Labour.....how would you frame an argument against this....Dementia Tax...? Ok how would we counter that...?" What a fiasco.
The chances of a majority of near 150+ a la Thatcher 1983 or Blair 1997 or 2001 are now gone I think instead May will have to aim for Blair 2005 or at most Thatcher 1987 if she wants to see a reasonable increase in her majority. The 9% lead in this poll UK wide is still more than the 7% Cameron got but May needs to squeeze 2 to 3% from Labour if it is to be anything significant
She needs to rein back in the Tories --> Don't Knows. If she can do that, she'll still have a very comfortable majority. But she needs to own the decision to go on Care, expend some of the personal goodwill - and be convincing that whatever a few might have cause to fear, she has done it for the many...
And point out that, if you are worried what an upfront Tory Govt. might do to your personal wealth, then you should be reaching for the incontinence pants of what an eerily silent Labour Govt. would do to you.
Oh, the zoomers are NOT happy about the debate last night. Now that they can no longer whine about the audience, they have moved on to Sarah Smith, the moderator, for asking the wrong questions.
Survation still has the Tories gaining 60% of UKIP voters but they are now losing 7% of 2015 Tory voters to Labour and only gaining 8% of 2015 Labour voters and actually making a small net loss to the LDs gaining 3% but losing 3.2%. Labour meanwhile is picking up 24% of 2015 LDs and only losing 5% to the LDs
For people emoting about how terrible a 50 seat majority is, please remember than it's the largest majority that the Tories will have won since 1987.
Regardless, it's a derisory performance against Corbyn, particularly with UKIP and the Lib Dems in tatters.
5 years plus keeps Corbyn in place for at least another couple of years? You get through Brexit and then look to secure a transformational majority in '22
LOL. Dream on. There's a recession due - probably an extremely bad one thanks to Brexit, but one due anyway. Tories will be v v unpopular within two or three years of this result.
Of course they've been wrong before (or rather the people betting have) but they can be wrong on the low side as well as the high side.
tbf though, at this stage in a campaign there is surely an inertia in the betting odds from the weight of money already placed? Only a minority of punters take their money off the table by trading in and out.
For people emoting about how terrible a 50 seat majority is, please remember than it's the largest majority that the Tories will have won since 1987.
Regardless, it's a derisory performance against Corbyn, particularly with UKIP and the Lib Dems in tatters.
Better than the posh boys ever managed...
Why? The 'posh boys' took a party that had been out of power for eight years, gained 120-odd seats over two general elections, and against an opposition that was much more unified and credible.
May should romp away with this election. Perhaps she still will. But she's only getting the opportunity because of the 'posh boys' you deride.
Is it confirmed this Timothy chap is the mastermind behind this social care shambles? Or just speculation? Are these things not wargamed? "Ok, pretend you are Labour.....how would you frame an argument against this....Dementia Tax...? Ok how would we counter that...?" What a fiasco.
Wouldn't be so sure it's a fiasco. So far this weekend we've had Labour defending millionaire pensioners getting a winter fuel allowance and the shadow chancellor pointing out that Damien greeen and the Conservatives are capitalists...
Part of winning big will be getting 2% more of the Lefty vote to go Green...
The chances of a majority of near 150+ a la Thatcher 1983 or Blair 1997 or 2001 are now gone I think instead May will have to aim for Blair 2005 or at most Thatcher 1987 if she wants to see a reasonable increase in her majority. The 9% lead in this poll UK wide is still more than the 7% Cameron got but May needs to squeeze 2 to 3% from Labour if it is to be anything significant
She needs to rein back in the Tories --> Don't Knows. If she can do that, she'll still have a very comfortable majority. But she needs to own the decision to go on Care, expend some of the personal goodwill - and be convincing that whatever a few might have cause to fear, she has done it for the many...
And point out that, if you are worried what an upfront Tory Govt. might do to your personal wealth, then you should be reaching for the incontinence pants of what an eerily silent Labour Govt. would do to you.
Certainty on inheritance tax the last paragraph is true
The chances of a majority of near 150+ a la Thatcher 1983 or Blair 1997 or 2001 are now gone I think instead May will have to aim for Blair 2005 or at most Thatcher 1987 if she wants to see a reasonable increase in her majority. The 9% lead in this poll UK wide is still more than the 7% Cameron got but May needs to squeeze 2 to 3% from Labour if it is to be anything significant
She needs to rein back in the Tories --> Don't Knows. If she can do that, she'll still have a very comfortable majority. But she needs to own the decision to go on Care, expend some of the personal goodwill - and be convincing that whatever a few might have cause to fear, she has done it for the many...
And point out that, if you are worried what an upfront Tory Govt. might do to your personal wealth, then you should be reaching for the incontinence pants of what an eerily silent Labour Govt. would do to you.
Labour have not pledged to increase tax allowances for workers as far as I can see.
The low paid and the average worker will be worse off under Labour.
I wonder how many of the expected 6.6 million postal votes expected to be cast have already been completed and returned, meaning that the fates of Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are largely already sealed. I've certainly done my bit for Justine in Putney!
It's good to hear that OGH is already in profit with his spread bet involving selling the Tories at 393 seats. Notwithstanding the high risks involved, this looks like a canny bet to me with him benefiting by the extent to which the Tories fail to achieve a majority of 136 which looks a big ask right now, but then you never know.
Were the polls to indicate Labour's share of the vote was continuing to climb, maybe it'll be free drinks all round at the Pre General Election PB.com get together?
We haven't even seen our postal vote packs yet in Cambridge. We've got the PV poll cards, but not the votes.
Survation still has the Tories gaining 60% of UKIP voters but they are now losing 7% of 2015 Tory voters to Labour and only gaining 8% of 2015 Labour voters and actually making a small net loss yo the LDs gaining 3% but losing 3.2%. Labour meanwhile is picking up 12% of 2015 LDs
It's a 'phone poll which started with 58% Remain sample.
Phone 'polls throw up all manner of oddities - Ipsos continually drag in samples where 40% of the workers contacted are in the public sector.
Survation produced an online poll with a lead of 12 at the same time as a phone poll with a lead of 9,
Is it confirmed this Timothy chap is the mastermind behind this social care shambles? Or just speculation? Are these things not wargamed? "Ok, pretend you are Labour.....how would you frame an argument against this....Dementia Tax...? Ok how would we counter that...?" What a fiasco.
The problem is they should have prepared the ground with some heavy artillery for months in advance about how odd and inequitable and unpredictable the current care system is. Not launch this in the middle of a GE. Bonkers.
I am absolutely seething that she has taken the lifetime cap so I can't plan properly now for my family.
But I have no also been exposed to information about the current system which I did not know - like the news that some councils refuse to defer payments and so are already snatching houses off living people.
Congratulations to 'The Man' for topping the league this season scoring 2,278 points and coming 17,765th in the whole competition (from 4,503,345 players) which is top 0.39%.
This was achieved despite the obvious drawback of being a Baggies fan.
The 'bridesmaid' second prize appropriately goes to a certain Spurs fan [cough] and third to TLG's XI outperforming his own team by actually making it in to the hallowed PB top 4.....
The also ran's saw 4th placed Liverpool fan and occasional trawlerman, TSE, match his own team's performance whereas a certain Leicester 'fox' fan saw his own PB Fantasy position match his teams return to earth this season ending up 9th.
The battle for bottom came down to just 1 point in the end (1,521 vs 1,522 points) with Liverpool City Tigers just behind 3 quidder and able to claim last place with a position of 3,433,379.
Which co-incidentally is how much each new policeman will cost when Diane Abbot sweeps in to the Home Office as now anticipated by more flaky PB community members.
This was my first season in the Fantasy Premier League competition. I made some rookie mistakes which I will not be making next season!
For people emoting about how terrible a 50 seat majority is, please remember than it's the largest majority that the Tories will have won since 1987.
Regardless, it's a derisory performance against Corbyn, particularly with UKIP and the Lib Dems in tatters.
5 years plus keeps Corbyn in place for at least another couple of years? You get through Brexit and then look to secure a transformational majority in '22
LOL. Dream on. There's a recession due - probably an extremely bad one thanks to Brexit, but one due anyway. Tories will be v v unpopular within two or three years of this result.
Wasn't the 2010 winner going to be destroyed as a result of coping with the circumstances?
For people emoting about how terrible a 50 seat majority is, please remember than it's the largest majority that the Tories will have won since 1987.
Regardless, it's a derisory performance against Corbyn, particularly with UKIP and the Lib Dems in tatters.
Better than the posh boys ever managed...
Why? The 'posh boys' took a party that had been out of power for eight years, gained 120-odd seats over two general elections, and against an opposition that was much more unified and credible.
May should romp away with this election. Perhaps she still will. But she's only getting the opportunity because of the 'posh boys' you deride.
True but the posh boys also called an EU referendum that cost them their jobs and will dwarf anything else in UK politics for a decade and while their giveaway 2015 manifesto was electorally strong in terms of UK finances it was rather less so
Comments
So far, this has felt like a repeat of the Gordon Brown 2010 playbook: "The world's going to hell in a handcart and we'll drive the cart. But the other lot? You don't even want to think about what they might do." Didn't work in 2010 and I doubt it will work well now. If it weren't for the sheer awfulness of her opponent, I'd expect May to be behind in the polls by now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1987#/media/File:Election_1987_Polls.jpg
However the Lib/Dems were much bigger back then and there was much smaller SNP support in Scotland.
I've certainly done my bit for Justine in Putney!
It's good to hear that OGH is already in profit with his spread bet involving selling the Tories at 393 seats. Notwithstanding the high risks involved, this looks like a canny bet to me with him benefiting by the extent to which the Tories fail to achieve a majority of 136 which looks a big ask right now, but then you never know.
Were the polls to indicate Labour's share of the vote was continuing to climb, maybe it'll be free drinks all round at the Pre General Election PB.com get together?
Otherwise where how would someone whose benefits have been sanctioned or whose life is too chaotic for them to engage with bureaucracy get help?
Debt could lead to someone on £15,000 being unable to afford food one week. If they are pregnant I'd imagine that a health visitor would be likely to give them a food bank referral.
This page has statistics on reasons people use foodbanks
https://www.trusselltrust.org/news-and-blog/latest-stats/end-year-stats/
You don't qualify for benefits just because you are in debt,. and one of the categories they record is "has no recourse to public funds". The latter category doesn't account for a significant proportion of referrals, but clearly some people who aren't receiving benefits use food banks.
Just imagine what we could do with thar money ourselves
The EU need to realise we are leaving and it will be at a cost to them
Heads of government in the individual member states would have no option but to overrule them.
'If he had said he was against Trident, you would have lapped it up. Now he has said unequivocally he supports Trident, you dismiss that. Basically, you are an alt-Right headbanger.'
You are out of order and need to retract that last accusation
.
Insulting someone when you are losing is the sign of weakness.
Use a better argument rather than insult a huge part of the British public who support the nuclear defence of our Country,
The Tories have had a very poor campaign so far. There is little of the message discipline we saw in 2015. They started with the strong and stable motif but their diversion into Social Care and Winter Fuel Allowance was unwise. They are clearly expecting to make substantial savings from the latter but are being very vague about what means testing means causing uncertainty.
I am still waiting for a clear vision of the sort of country May wants to shape. Maybe we will get that in the interviews coming up but she was famous in the Home Office for giving interviews where she spoke a lot and said nothing. She needs to up her game as leader and give a picture of what she wants to achieve as PM.
Won't most people say... Well obviously?
I doubt person in the street has been following closely how much the EU is requesting.
I know they try to re-weight these things, but.......
It is clear the Tories need to up their game, though there is little sign of their UKIP switchers disappearing. It's their own core that are starting to have doubts.
@Carlaw4Eastwood: It's quite clear that The Scotsman is married to a Tory councillor. twitter.com/thescotsman/st…
May should romp away with this election. Perhaps she still will. But she's only getting the opportunity because of the 'posh boys' you deride.
*sighs*
Nick Timothy^ is akin to a Conservative Torsten Bell.
^Assuming I remembered the names correctly, of course.
Still waiting to hear if you've found any policies she hasn't bungled or nicked from Labour yet?
I trust that if the Tories do indeed get a majority of around 50 on June 8th that there will be no Tory Triumphalism then? Just the start of sober analysis of reasons for the failure.
https://twitter.com/milesbriggsmsp/status/866549370778419200
How many PB Tories, concerned that Tezza is being outmanoeuvred by Jeremy Corbyn, think she can negotiate a good deal with Angela Merkel?
Congratulations to 'The Man' for topping the league this season scoring 2,278 points and coming 17,765th in the whole competition (from 4,503,345 players) which is top 0.39%.
This was achieved despite the obvious drawback of being a Baggies fan.
The 'bridesmaid' second prize appropriately goes to a certain Spurs fan [cough] and third to TLG's XI outperforming his own team by actually making it in to the hallowed PB top 4.....
The also ran's saw 4th placed Liverpool fan and occasional trawlerman, TSE, match his own team's performance whereas a certain Leicester 'fox' fan saw his own PB Fantasy position match his teams return to earth this season ending up 9th.
The battle for bottom came down to just 1 point in the end (1,521 vs 1,522 points) with Liverpool City Tigers just behind 3 quidder and able to claim last place with a position of 3,433,379.
Which co-incidentally is how much each new policeman will cost when Diane Abbot sweeps in to the Home Office as now anticipated by more flaky PB community members.
All that has happened in the last week or two is the fringe left has coalesced around Labour while tribal loyalty kicks in with their usual vote.
May has been blunt about pensioners, so there's a temporary move from Tory to undecided that is likely to reverse on 8 June.
With DNV's taken out, Tory leads are tending to be 2-3 points higher than the headline numbers.
And it's at that point that the politicians will start to blame the Brexit voters - that it wasn't the Tory government's decision to Leave... This will of course sound a bit rich coming from a leadership that's rebranded itself as the Kings of Brexit in order to win an election.
The problem she has is that almost any amount will seem too much to the general public.
All models and polling currently assume pretty crap youth turnout right? What if we actually see the youth turn up for Corbyn in this election - especially now that he has actually given them a cash incentive to do so? Is a depressed elderly turnout in response to the dementia tax going to collide with higher youth turnout, upending our assumed patterns of voting?
We should remember that everyone was caught off guard by the high turnout of the working classes in the EU referendum (all projections for a Leave win were based on the idea that there would be low turnout, not high turnout), another group with a less than stellar turnout record. It's not unreasonable to think it could happen again.
Then Ed tried to eat a sandwich and went shopping for a garden ornament.....
Dangerously inept though.
What a fiasco.
And point out that, if you are worried what an upfront Tory Govt. might do to your personal wealth, then you should be reaching for the incontinence pants of what an eerily silent Labour Govt. would do to you.
The Conservative over/under:
Betfair 388.5
Bet365 390.5
Ladbrokes 390.5
SkyBet 391.5
Of course they've been wrong before (or rather the people betting have) but they can be wrong on the low side as well as the high side.
Awesome
Part of winning big will be getting 2% more of the Lefty vote to go Green...
The low paid and the average worker will be worse off under Labour.
So is anyone going to put their money on a Conservative failure ?
Phone 'polls throw up all manner of oddities - Ipsos continually drag in samples where 40% of the workers contacted are in the public sector.
Survation produced an online poll with a lead of 12 at the same time as a phone poll with a lead of 9,
I am absolutely seething that she has taken the lifetime cap so I can't plan properly now for my family.
But I have no also been exposed to information about the current system which I did not know - like the news that some councils refuse to defer payments and so are already snatching houses off living people.