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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Even though it is fighting fewer seats and had no MPs the BBC

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  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited May 2017
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: more or less done the blog, just prevaricating over a bet. The agony of choice!

    I've already put my money on the table.

    As always I'm looking forward to your thoughts on your blog and seeing if we're on the same page.

    Edit: I see you published at the same time as my comment. Let's take a look! :)
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,045
    So, that Labour figure. Find 32% still hard to believe when Corbyns ratings are so dire. Maybe the fact people don't expect him or Labour to win.

    Just feels..wrong.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Derby North. Greens stand aside:

    http://labourlist.org/2017/05/greens-back-corbynista-ex-mp-as-he-aims-to-overturn-tory-majority-of-just-41/
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017
    re: Wales - Yougov were close to accurate at the last election.

    re: Lib Dems - where will they go? On Opinium's best leader choice they break 2:1 for May over Corbyn, so if they move.....

    re: Labour's 32 - they are miles behind among 35+ and Opinium have substantially upweighted young blue collar workers because they presumably don't have many signed up to respond to political polls. It's a very dubious number because these voters are hard to reach. The Tories and Labour are close to level among young professionals.

    The idea that young white van man is voting Corbyn is hysterical.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Razedabode said:

    So, that Labour figure. Find 32% still hard to believe when Corbyns ratings are so dire. Maybe the fact people don't expect him or Labour to win.

    Just feels..wrong.

    Yep, feels wrong to me too. Very wrong. This is all very odd.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    ComRes‏ @ComRes 2m2 minutes ago

    Latest ComRes poll for Sunday Mirror / Independent - Conservatives lead Labour by 18 points - 48% to 30% http://bit.ly/2r46nYA
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373

    New Thread

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    chestnut said:

    re: Wales - Yougov were close to accurate at the last election.

    re: Lib Dems - where will they go? On Opinium's best leader choice they break 2:1 for May over Corbyn, so if they move.....

    re: Labour's 32 - they are miles behind among 35+ and Opinium have substantially upweighted young blue collar workers because they presumably don't have many signed up to respond to political polls. It's a very dubious number because these voters are hard to reach.

    "young blue collar workers"

    Who probably don't vote. Guardian interviewed a couple yesterday iirc. They didn't even know name of the PM. Although one thought it was a woman.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    edited May 2017
    surbiton said:

    nunu said:

    surbiton said:

    valleyboy said:

    surbiton said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?

    Tories leading by 75 points ?
    Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.
    Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.
    The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
    Even from that poll, only 3 weeks back, if you add the Tory and UKIP share, it comes to 36%. How on earth, the Tories will get 40% beats me. Where were these people on the 4th of May ?
    Voting for Independents - as tends to be the case in Welsh local elections.

    Edit: Already explained.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 48% (-2)
    LAB: 30% (+5)
    LDEM: 10% (-2)
    UKIP: 5% (-2)
    GRN: 3% (-)

    (via @ComRes)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    marke09 said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 48% (-2)
    LAB: 30% (+5)
    LDEM: 10% (-2)
    UKIP: 5% (-2)
    GRN: 3% (-)

    (via @ComRes)

    The magic money tree in action!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    RobD said:

    marke09 said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 2m2 minutes ago

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 48% (-2)
    LAB: 30% (+5)
    LDEM: 10% (-2)
    UKIP: 5% (-2)
    GRN: 3% (-)

    (via @ComRes)

    The magic money tree in action!
    Brilliant isn't it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    How desperate can the Tories get.
    https://twitter.com/andysearson/status/863073898048479234/photo/1
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Yorkcity said:

    MikeL said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. L, I agree. The Conservatives have been far too soft on Corbyn.

    It could be that they are waiting to time it - there are still almost 4 weeks to go - and no line can be sustained for anywhere near that long.

    Manifestos this week coming up so maybe they go big on Corbyn's defence record the week after.

    They also have to ensure the Monarchy question gets asked - I guess Andrew Neil may ask it in his Corbyn interview.
    He should tell Andrew Neil he watches The Crown on Netflix and likes leaders who stay in place well into their nineties.
    He should just tell the truth. The monarchy is an outdated relic, but there is no intention to abolish it.
    Much like the Labour party?
This discussion has been closed.