I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.
I recall my Tory friend telling me about 6 months back that Trump would win. He was not backing Trump but he felt the people who do not vote will turn out.
He also told me that Jezza would do very well. Even I had to laugh. He said the same thing would happen: many who do not vote normally will turn out Corbyn. Let's see what happens .
He was in York City centre last Wednesday afternoon .There was a big crowd to see him alongside the local MP for York Central.The local press gave him some balanced coverage.I still think it will be a 150 Maj for the blues.However he is motivating a certain section of society.He is good on the stump meeting the public.
Funnily enough I was chatting to an acquaintance earlier who hadn't bothered to vote last time but would be voting Labour because of Corbyn, 'seems more honest than the rest'.
I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.
I recall my Tory friend telling me about 6 months back that Trump would win. He was not backing Trump but he felt the people who do not vote will turn out.
He also told me that Jezza would do very well. Even I had to laugh. He said the same thing would happen: many who do not vote normally will turn out Corbyn. Let's see what happens .
You have a Tory friend....I call that about as likely as Justin Kill Em bumping into Clive Lewis in a pub in Norwich on the day he was getting married in London.
Sadly, most of my friends are Tories. Some pretend they do not do politics. That is a confirmation that they are also Tories.
Miserable gits! It is pure fun and there are some real classics tonight. The Ukranians have put on a very good show. I tip Bulgaria to win, but Fox jr is backing Portugal. I think bets for a top 10 finish should include Armenia and Romania, but also Moldova, Ukraine and Belarus as longer shots.
In the absence of TSE, have a look at Sportsbooks betting summary:
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.
I recall my Tory friend telling me about 6 months back that Trump would win. He was not backing Trump but he felt the people who do not vote will turn out.
He also told me that Jezza would do very well. Even I had to laugh. He said the same thing would happen: many who do not vote normally will turn out Corbyn. Let's see what happens .
He was in York City centre last Wednesday afternoon .There was a big crowd to see him alongside the local MP for York Central.The local press gave him some balanced coverage.I still think it will be a 150 Maj for the blues.However he is motivating a certain section of society.He is good on the stump meeting the public.
Funnily enough I was chatting to an acquaintance earlier who hadn't bothered to vote last time but would be voting Labour because of Corbyn, 'seems more honest than the rest'.
I am sure that the public, regardless of other attributes, consider Corbyn more honest that May, if not most politicians.
Viewing from afar and 8 hours behind I would suggest the following.
Conservatives about right Labour too high Lib Dems too low UKIP bit high
Next week the serious manifesto for government will be released and the narrative will move from labour's suicide note and the conservative proposition for government..
I think keeping TM relatively low profile and allowing labour to show their hand has been tactically astute and expect to see a full on attack on labour from monday.
Over here in Canada all the talk, and I mean all the talk, is about Trump and the trade war developing between the US and Canada. Lots of anger and dismay widely seen. Rocky (forgive the pun) times ahead by the looks of it
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.
I recall my Tory friend telling me about 6 months back that Trump would win. He was not backing Trump but he felt the people who do not vote will turn out.
He also told me that Jezza would do very well. Even I had to laugh. He said the same thing would happen: many who do not vote normally will turn out Corbyn. Let's see what happens .
He was in York City centre last Wednesday afternoon .There was a big crowd to see him alongside the local MP for York Central.The local press gave him some balanced coverage.I still think it will be a 150 Maj for the blues.However he is motivating a certain section of society.He is good on the stump meeting the public.
Funnily enough I was chatting to an acquaintance earlier who hadn't bothered to vote last time but would be voting Labour because of Corbyn, 'seems more honest than the rest'.
I am sure that the public, regardless of other attributes, consider Corbyn more honest that May, if not most politicians.
He's more likely to say things people don't like, therefore more direct at least. Usually.
I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.
You know my views on the polling, but certainly Labour have had a huge amount of publicity over the last week, and I don't suppose it can be all bad. Next week is the crucial one really, and it will cement the outcome of the election. The TV interviews will either confirm or deny what most people think anyway, but I do think it's absolutely crucial that Corbyn is not let off the hook because of 'politeness' or some such sentiment.
Do you think Andrew Neil should quiz May on having shown herself to be a compulsive liar? Plenty of quotes available to throw at her.
That old chestnut, given she had left the company by the time the issue arose , it would make it hard for her to be involved, even for a Tory fib that is a whopper
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
Though the Tories would still gain almost 40 Labour seats even on that UK wide poll (+2 LD seats and 1 UKIP), the most favourable of the campaign yet for Labour
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
That old chestnut, given she had left the company by the time the issue arose , it would make it hard for her to be involved, even for a Tory fib that is a whopper
She used to be a Tory, malc. These things are to be expected.
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.
You know my views on the polling, but certainly Labour have had a huge amount of publicity over the last week, and I don't suppose it can be all bad. Next week is the crucial one really, and it will cement the outcome of the election. The TV interviews will either confirm or deny what most people think anyway, but I do think it's absolutely crucial that Corbyn is not let off the hook because of 'politeness' or some such sentiment.
Do you think Andrew Neil should quiz May on having shown herself to be a compulsive liar? Plenty of quotes available to throw at her.
Yes, I can see her saying there will not be an election and then changing her mind and having one will be as damaging as Corybn's various comments over the years.
Mr. B, I still think you're being too pessimistic about the Prancing Horse. Practically no difference on pace in qualifying, and if Mercedes still has the turned-up-wick mode then that means Ferrari has the edge on race pace. Plus they've been sharper on strategy.
Hard to pass, and the start will be critical.
Got a few potential betting ideas (too many, to be honest). Got to go afk for a bit, so I imagine it'll be up around half five to six.
Unless Ferrari were seriously sandbagging, the Mercedes race pace looks greatly superior... and I don't think I'm being massively pessimistic. This really is supposed to be a track which plays to Ferrari's strengths. If Mercedes are comfortable winners here then they have a lot of catching up to do. As I said, before Friday I was expecting Ferrari to dominate this GP.
I'd actually like to be wrong, as I was hoping for a season long scrap between Vettel and Hamilton.
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
Though the Tories would still gain about 20 Labour seats even on that poll, the most favourable of the campaign yet for Labour
I do think the chance of a massive polling feck-up is high.
The pollster are operating in unusual circumstances, and their “corrections” and “adjustments” may not be right in such extreme conditions.
I think so too. Other than giving a rough idea of which way the wind is blowing, I think the polls are useless. Additionally I have not seen anything convincing to explain why the polling companies got it so wrong in 2015, or why they all at the end coalesced around the, wrong, predicted result or for that matter why one of them suppressed a poll that was out of line with what everyone else was saying (but actually turned out to be accurate).
It maybe heresy on this site to say so, but I cannot help thinking that polling companies make the numbers up as they go along in order to promote their favoured narrative. All covered with the most impeccable mumbo-jumbo as to the reasons why they have adjusted and corrected the data from their samples of course.
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
Though the Tories would still gain almost 40 Labour seats even on that UK wide poll (+2 LD seats and 1 UKIP), the most favourable of the campaign yet for Labour
31 Labour seats would go Tory on a 3.7% swing. This is not the smallest Tory lead of the campaign so far - we have had leads of 11% and 13% a couple of weeks back.
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
Though the Tories would still gain about 20 Labour seats even on that poll, the most favourable of the campaign yet for Labour
Only 20 seats ? No way.
No you are right nearer 40 seats, I was looking at majority not swing
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.
You know my views on the polling, but certainly Labour have had a huge amount of publicity over the last week, and I don't suppose it can be all bad. Next week is the crucial one really, and it will cement the outcome of the election. The TV interviews will either confirm or deny what most people think anyway, but I do think it's absolutely crucial that Corbyn is not let off the hook because of 'politeness' or some such sentiment.
Do you think Andrew Neil should quiz May on having shown herself to be a compulsive liar? Plenty of quotes available to throw at her.
He should question her about statements which she then acted in opposition to, perhaps.
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.
I recall my Tory friend telling me about 6 months back that Trump would win. He was not backing Trump but he felt the people who do not vote will turn out.
He also told me that Jezza would do very well. Even I had to laugh. He said the same thing would happen: many who do not vote normally will turn out Corbyn. Let's see what happens .
He was in York City centre last Wednesday afternoon .There was a big crowd to see him alongside the local MP for York Central.The local press gave him some balanced coverage.I still think it will be a 150 Maj for the blues.However he is motivating a certain section of society.He is good on the stump meeting the public.
Funnily enough I was chatting to an acquaintance earlier who hadn't bothered to vote last time but would be voting Labour because of Corbyn, 'seems more honest than the rest'.
I am sure that the public, regardless of other attributes, consider Corbyn more honest that May, if not most politicians.
Agreed to honest at times.A bit like the film The Invention of lying, where everyone tells the truth.
It's a trend. Polling disaster or everyone is wrong.
112 Tory majority.
Interesting, it appears the majority changes by 20 seats whether or not you use a Scotland prediction (where only six seats change hands from SNP -> Tories/LD)
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
Though the Tories would still gain almost 40 Labour seats even on that UK wide poll (+2 LD seats and 1 UKIP), the most favourable of the campaign yet for Labour
31 Labour seats would go Tory on a 3.7% swing. This is not the smallest Tory lead of the campaign so far - we have had leads of 11% and 13% a couple of weeks back.
Based on the Britain Elects figures it is a swing of 4.5% so that would be 41 Tory gains from Labour and 32% is the highest Labour rating of the campaign
Another one with Labour above their 2015 performance, and the Lib Dems having gone precisely nowhere. Very strange.
Not really. If I were in a Lab seat or Lab/Tory marginal then I would vote Lab. If I were in a Tory or LD seat I would vote LD. It is important that May has a proper opposition to call her to account. Ideally a hung parliament.
That old chestnut, given she had left the company by the time the issue arose , it would make it hard for her to be involved, even for a Tory fib that is a whopper
She used to be a Tory, malc. These things are to be expected.
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
Even from that poll, only 3 weeks back, if you add the Tory and UKIP share, it comes to 36%. How on earth, the Tories will get 40% beats me. Where were these people on the 4th of May ?
I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.
You know my views on the polling, but certainly Labour have had a huge amount of publicity over the last week, and I don't suppose it can be all bad. Next week is the crucial one really, and it will cement the outcome of the election. The TV interviews will either confirm or deny what most people think anyway, but I do think it's absolutely crucial that Corbyn is not let off the hook because of 'politeness' or some such sentiment.
Do you think Andrew Neil should quiz May on having shown herself to be a compulsive liar? Plenty of quotes available to throw at her.
He should question her about statements which she then acted in opposition to, perhaps.
I am sure he will ask her about her support for the Iraq war and Libya and continued support for Saudi Arabia.Also will she support Trump over Syria whatever he decides.
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
Even from that poll, only 3 weeks back, if you add the Tory and UKIP share, it comes to 36%. How on earth, the Tories will get 40% beats me. Where were these people on the 4th of May ?
Voting for independents, which seems to be a big thing in Wales.
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
Though the Tories would still gain almost 40 Labour seats even on that UK wide poll (+2 LD seats and 1 UKIP), the most favourable of the campaign yet for Labour
31 Labour seats would go Tory on a 3.7% swing. This is not the smallest Tory lead of the campaign so far - we have had leads of 11% and 13% a couple of weeks back.
Based on the Britain Elects figures it is a swing of 4.5% so that would be 41 Tory gains from Labour and 32% is the highest Labour rating of the campaign
Betfair have a Tory majority of 75-99 at 9.2. Fair value methinks.
I think the Tories have to be careful about unleashing personal attacks on Corbyn. The smartest thing they could do is to use his own words and actions against him. It's not as if there isn't enough ammunition. Let the fool condemn himself with a little encouragement from the Tories.
That's what they've been doing so far. They're still ahead and winning, but Labour (possibly) are improving.
You know my views on the polling, but certainly Labour have had a huge amount of publicity over the last week, and I don't suppose it can be all bad. Next week is the crucial one really, and it will cement the outcome of the election. The TV interviews will either confirm or deny what most people think anyway, but I do think it's absolutely crucial that Corbyn is not let off the hook because of 'politeness' or some such sentiment.
Do you think Andrew Neil should quiz May on having shown herself to be a compulsive liar? Plenty of quotes available to throw at her.
He should question her about statements which she then acted in opposition to, perhaps.
I am sure he will ask her about her support for the Iraq war and Libya and continued support for Saudi Arabia.Also will she support Trump over Syria whatever he decides.
Immigration: Who was the Home Secretary from 2010 to 2016 ? How many NON-EU immigrants came in ? What was the manifesto commitment ?
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
Miserable gits! It is pure fun and there are some real classics tonight. The Ukranians have put on a very good show. I tip Bulgaria to win, but Fox jr is backing Portugal. I think bets for a top 10 finish should include Armenia and Romania, but also Moldova, Ukraine and Belarus as longer shots.
In the absence of TSE, have a look at Sportsbooks betting summary:
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
The 35% and 13% Welsh figures come from the 2012 local elections when Ed Miliband won the national voteshare, they are not the 2017 figures where the Tories gained 80 seats in Wales and Labour lost 107 (unlike Scotland I don't believe Welsh voteshare has yet been calculated)
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
Another one with Labour above their 2015 performance, and the Lib Dems having gone precisely nowhere. Very strange.
Not really. If I were in a Lab seat or Lab/Tory marginal then I would vote Lab. If I were in a Tory or LD seat I would vote LD. It is important that May has a proper opposition to call her to account. Ideally a hung parliament.
Correct, Doctor ! I will do my duty in Kingston and Surbiton.
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
Whoa .... In Welsh Local elections, the Independents are usually Tories. To get the Tory vote, a simple thing to do is to take 80 per cent of the Independent vote and put it in the Tory column.
This gives Labour 472 councillors, and the Tories on 184 + 0.8 * 322 = 441 councillors.
I.e. Labour slightly ahead in the Locals, which is what the polling predicted for the Locals (from memory, Labour 28 per cent, Tories 26 per cent).
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
Though the Tories would still gain almost 40 Labour seats even on that UK wide poll (+2 LD seats and 1 UKIP), the most favourable of the campaign yet for Labour
31 Labour seats would go Tory on a 3.7% swing. This is not the smallest Tory lead of the campaign so far - we have had leads of 11% and 13% a couple of weeks back.
Based on the Britain Elects figures it is a swing of 4.5% so that would be 41 Tory gains from Labour and 32% is the highest Labour rating of the campaign
Betfair have a Tory majority of 75-99 at 9.2. Fair value methinks.
On UK figures alone the Tories would probably have a majority of 80-90 on that Opinium poll, however if they pick up 10 or so from the SNP that would take them to the 100 majority mark so they need an above average swing in Scotland which Scottish polls suggest is not impossible
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
The Telegragh story actually has Con 42, Lab 31, LD 10, UKIP 8.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
Whoa .... In Welsh Local elections, the Independents are usually Tories. To get the Tory vote, a simple thing to do is to take 80 per cent of the Independent vote and put it in the Tory column.
This gives Labour 472 councillors, and the Tories on 184 + 0.8 * 322 = 441 councillors.
I.e. Labour slightly ahead in the Locals, which is what the polling predicted for the Locals (from memory, Labour 28 per cent, Tories 26 per cent).
In that case, shouldn't the pollsters also have asked about Independents if they are so numerous ?
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
Whoa .... In Welsh Local elections, the Independents are usually Tories. To get the Tory vote, a simple thing to do is to take 80 per cent of the Independent vote and put it in the Tory column.
This gives Labour 472 councillors, and the Tories on 184 + 0.8 * 322 = 441 councillors.
I.e. Labour slightly ahead in the Locals, which is what the polling predicted for the Locals (from memory, Labour 28 per cent, Tories 26 per cent).
In that case, shouldn't the pollsters also have asked about Independents if they are so numerous ?
They did, and they polled 12%. Not sure what the actual figure in the election was, but it was 25% in 2012.
It's a trend. Polling disaster or everyone is wrong.
112 Tory majority.
Interesting, it appears the majority changes by 20 seats whether or not you use a Scotland prediction (where only six seats change hands from SNP -> Tories/LD)
It's a trend. Polling disaster or everyone is wrong.
112 Tory majority.
Interesting, it appears the majority changes by 20 seats whether or not you use a Scotland prediction (where only six seats change hands from SNP -> Tories/LD)
That is because it is horse manure Rob.
Suspect it is using an earlier model that doesn't account for UKIP not standing in certain seats.
Shame the guy on the extreme right has his message the wrong way up.
I'm sure there is a metaphor in there somewhere...
Seems like there is always a guy on the extreme right in SCon group photos these days.
A few years ago I remember watching an interview on the BBC with a few people standing on some steps outside somewhere that was doubtless appropriate for the story.
One of them was captioned "Far Right Conservative". When they switched back to the studio a newsreader (amused and not apologetic at all) apologised saying that the caption was "a positioning direction for the camera crew and shown in error"
Aren't we once again underestimating the public? All this talk of abstensions, low turnout, voting to stop a Tory landslide - I do think a lot of this is nonsense. You could equally argue (similar to the 1992 election), that millions will turn out to stop Corbyn.
Plus there's the Brexit vote to add on to that.
It's why I genuinely believe Labour's apparent rise in the polls is dubious. Is Corbyn really outperforming Brown and Miliband? It just doesn't 'feel' right, and I know that sounds flakey too. However, I do trust my own instincts, and anything over 30% for Labour doesn't sit right with me.
All this 'rise in the polls' would still produce a 3.5% swing from Labour to the Tories on today's ORB since the last election as the 2% rise in the Labour share is more than matched by an even larger 9% rise in the Tory vote thanks mainly to the fall in the UKIP share, the poll also shows a 4.5% swing from the LDs to the Tories as the LDs are unchanged on 2015. Personally I think the Tory voteshare is about right but the Labour voteshare too high and the LD voteshare too low
It is actually a 3.7% swing from 2017 - ORB are using GB figures which means Labour is up 0.8% on 2015.
Though the Tories would still gain almost 40 Labour seats even on that UK wide poll (+2 LD seats and 1 UKIP), the most favourable of the campaign yet for Labour
31 Labour seats would go Tory on a 3.7% swing. This is not the smallest Tory lead of the campaign so far - we have had leads of 11% and 13% a couple of weeks back.
Based on the Britain Elects figures it is a swing of 4.5% so that would be 41 Tory gains from Labour and 32% is the highest Labour rating of the campaign
Betfair have a Tory majority of 75-99 at 9.2. Fair value methinks.
On UK figures alone the Tories would probably have a majority of 80-90 on that Opinium poll, however if they pick up 10 or so from the SNP that would take them to the 100 majority mark so they need an above average swing in Scotland which Scottish polls suggest is not impossible
Meanwhile back in reality, I am splitting my sides that anybody can be so deluded.
Shame the guy on the extreme right has his message the wrong way up.
I'm sure there is a metaphor in there somewhere...
Seems like there is always a guy on the extreme right in SCon group photos these days.
A few years ago I remember watching an interview on the BBC with a few people standing on some steps outside somewhere that was doubtless appropriate for the story.
One of them was captioned "Far Right Conservative". When they switched back to the studio a newsreader (amused and not apologetic at all) apologised saying that the caption was "a positioning direction for the camera crew and shown in error"
And I suppose the other Tory on the right hand side was labelled 'alt right conservative'?
Viewing from afar and 8 hours behind I would suggest the following.
Conservatives about right Labour too high Lib Dems too low UKIP bit high
Next week the serious manifesto for government will be released and the narrative will move from labour's suicide note and the conservative proposition for government..
I think keeping TM relatively low profile and allowing labour to show their hand has been tactically astute and expect to see a full on attack on labour from monday.
Over here in Canada all the talk, and I mean all the talk, is about Trump and the trade war developing between the US and Canada. Lots of anger and dismay widely seen. Rocky (forgive the pun) times ahead by the looks of it
Hello Big_G , Hope your holiday is going well.
Hi Malc - yes - great to be with family in a fab location by Grouse Mountain. Managed to trace the home of one of my wife's aunts who emigrated to Vancouver circa 1920. Lots of Campbells and McDonalds (my wife being a Campbell)
Pb seems to have the same arguments but looking at it from a distance I do not think much has changed from when the election was called though my comments on the fisher folk seem to be confirmed.
This must be one of the silliest threads. The Labour uptick is down to the weakness of the rest. The Tory figures are also going up. There is precious little more to say.
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
Even from that poll, only 3 weeks back, if you add the Tory and UKIP share, it comes to 36%. How on earth, the Tories will get 40% beats me. Where were these people on the 4th of May ?
Voting for independents, which seems to be a big thing in Wales.
If you're trying to understand what happened in the Welsh Council Elections, you could do no better than read this:
"Why should the poll have been so far out from the actual voting figures? There are several potential reasons. First, the poll was conducted around two weeks before the election, and many voters may have changed their minds in the intervening period. Polling companies normally like to conduct their ‘final call poll’, which is how their accuracy compared to the results is usually judged, as close as possible to an election – and certainly not two weeks beforehand. Second, local elections are particularly hard to poll in many places, including much of Wales, because of the strong tradition of local independent candidates and groups. Third, and perhaps most importantly, in many seats there were not candidates from all of the parties. Labour stood in the clear majority of Welsh seats, but the Conservatives only in about half, Plaid Cymru in somewhat fewer than half, the Lib-Dems in below one-quarter of all contests, and UKIP and the Greens in a much lower proportion even that that. Many voters may have intended to vote for a party in the local elections but been unable to do so for want of a local candidate.
"Nonetheless, while there are legitimate reasons to excuse at least some of the inaccuracy in our poll, we should also be open to the possibility that it reflected some genuine error in measuring party support. If so, those errors were in the direction of under-stating Labour support, and over-stating support for the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and UKIP. This should be born in mind over the next few weeks. Overall, our poll for the local elections certainly gave some indication of the direction in which the political wind was blowing, but not too accurate a reading of the strength of that wind."
In other words, the polling *might* be defective, but it looks like the main reason for the discrepancy is that an awful lot of voters were deprived of their ideal candidates. It is no surprise that Labour outperformed if it was the only party that managed to contest most of the seats on offer; moreover, IIRC, independents are especially common in Wales and often soak up a lot of the right-leaning vote.
At a General Election, Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru will all be contesting all forty Welsh seats. So the local election polling being so wide of the mark doesn't necessarily imply that the general election polling will also get the vote share terribly wrong.
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
Viewing from afar and 8 hours behind I would suggest the following.
Conservatives about right Labour too high Lib Dems too low UKIP bit high
Next week the serious manifesto for government will be released and the narrative will move from labour's suicide note and the conservative proposition for government..
I think keeping TM relatively low profile and allowing labour to show their hand has been tactically astute and expect to see a full on attack on labour from monday.
Over here in Canada all the talk, and I mean all the talk, is about Trump and the trade war developing between the US and Canada. Lots of anger and dismay widely seen. Rocky (forgive the pun) times ahead by the looks of it
Hello Big_G , Hope your holiday is going well.
Hi Malc - yes - great to be with family in a fab location by Grouse Mountain. Managed to trace the home of one of my wife's aunts who emigrated to Vancouver circa 1920. Lots of Campbells and McDonalds (my wife being a Campbell)
Pb seems to have the same arguments but looking at it from a distance I do not think much has changed from when the election was called though my comments on the fisher folk seem to be confirmed.
All the best
Cheers G, Tories do seem to be aligning themselves with some dubious characters and groups in Scotland. It will not end well. Enjoy the rest of your holiday, if me I would not be wanting to come back.
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
Whoa .... In Welsh Local elections, the Independents are usually Tories. To get the Tory vote, a simple thing to do is to take 80 per cent of the Independent vote and put it in the Tory column.
This gives Labour 472 councillors, and the Tories on 184 + 0.8 * 322 = 441 councillors.
I.e. Labour slightly ahead in the Locals, which is what the polling predicted for the Locals (from memory, Labour 28 per cent, Tories 26 per cent).
In that case, shouldn't the pollsters also have asked about Independents if they are so numerous ?
They did, and they polled 12%. Not sure what the actual figure in the election was, but it was 25% in 2012.
OK, so despite the 12% accounted for the Independents, the Tories were expected to get 26% and, in fact, they got 13%.
Afternoon everyone, isn't odd that a 15 point lead in the point lead for the blue team seems normal but we most of us think the absolute numbers are wrong.
FWIW I personally think the Labour is overstated as is the Tories. Lib Dems appear to be the new shy Tories.
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
Whoa .... In Welsh Local elections, the Independents are usually Tories. To get the Tory vote, a simple thing to do is to take 80 per cent of the Independent vote and put it in the Tory column.
This gives Labour 472 councillors, and the Tories on 184 + 0.8 * 322 = 441 councillors.
I.e. Labour slightly ahead in the Locals, which is what the polling predicted for the Locals (from memory, Labour 28 per cent, Tories 26 per cent).
In that case, shouldn't the pollsters also have asked about Independents if they are so numerous ?
They did, and they polled 12%. Not sure what the actual figure in the election was, but it was 25% in 2012.
OK, so despite the 12% accounted for the Independents, the Tories were expected to get 26% and, in fact, they got 13%.
Shame the guy on the extreme right has his message the wrong way up.
I'm sure there is a metaphor in there somewhere...
Seems like there is always a guy on the extreme right in SCon group photos these days.
A few years ago I remember watching an interview on the BBC with a few people standing on some steps outside somewhere that was doubtless appropriate for the story.
One of them was captioned "Far Right Conservative". When they switched back to the studio a newsreader (amused and not apologetic at all) apologised saying that the caption was "a positioning direction for the camera crew and shown in error"
And I suppose the other Tory on the right hand side was labelled 'alt right conservative'?
I'll get my coat.
You don't need to move - it looks as though someone is already bringing it.
Afternoon everyone, isn't odd that a 15 point lead in the point lead for the blue team seems normal but we most of us think the absolute numbers are wrong.
FWIW I personally think the Labour is overstated as is the Tories. Lib Dems appear to be the new shy Tories.
We often talk about this "shyness" but what is the motivating factor?
For Tories it used to be the fear of violence or verbal abuse from the booted Thug Left.
If a LibDem is "shy" then that can only be for fear of being laughed at. Very different.
Afternoon everyone, isn't odd that a 15 point lead in the point lead for the blue team seems normal but we most of us think the absolute numbers are wrong.
FWIW I personally think the Labour is overstated as is the Tories. Lib Dems appear to be the new shy Tories.
We often talk about this "shyness" but what is the motivating factor?
For Tories it used to be the fear of violence or verbal abuse from the booted Thug Left.
If a LibDem is "shy" then that can only be for fear of being laughed at. Very different.
Comments
In the absence of TSE, have a look at Sportsbooks betting summary:
https://betting.betfair.com/specials/eurovision-song-contest/eurovision-2017-odds-betfair-eurovision-betting-preview-saturday-13-may-2017-120517-140.html
I do think the chance of a massive polling feck-up is high.
The pollster are operating in unusual circumstances, and their “corrections” and “adjustments” may not be right in such extreme conditions.
I am puzzled. Under Voting intention among UK adults. UK ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/five-key-charts-show-people-will-vote-general-election-according/
And you appear to have changed your stance on reading the Telegraph.
I'd actually like to be wrong, as I was hoping for a season long scrap between Vettel and Hamilton.
It maybe heresy on this site to say so, but I cannot help thinking that polling companies make the numbers up as they go along in order to promote their favoured narrative. All covered with the most impeccable mumbo-jumbo as to the reasons why they have adjusted and corrected the data from their samples of course.
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1)
LAB: 32% (+2)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-)
(via @OpiniumResearch / 09 - 12 May)
This is not the smallest Tory lead of the campaign so far - we have had leads of 11% and 13% a couple of weeks back.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
Con 370, Lab 203, LD 6
Majority 90
Big question now is can Lab hit or beat 30 with ICM - last five ICM Lab scores were 27, 28, 28, 28, 27.
This gives Labour 472 councillors, and the Tories on 184 + 0.8 * 322 = 441 councillors.
I.e. Labour slightly ahead in the Locals, which is what the polling predicted for the Locals (from memory, Labour 28 per cent, Tories 26 per cent).
One of them was captioned "Far Right Conservative". When they switched back to the studio a newsreader (amused and not apologetic at all) apologised saying that the caption was "a positioning direction for the camera crew and shown in error"
I'll get my coat.
Pb seems to have the same arguments but looking at it from a distance I do not think much has changed from when the election was called though my comments on the fisher folk seem to be confirmed.
All the best
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/05/12/the-2017-local-elections-in-wales/
Summary:
Prediction of Welsh Barometer Poll:
Labour: 28%
Conservatives: 26%
Plaid Cymru: 19%
Liberal Democrats: 7%
UKIP: 8%
Others/Independents: 12%
Actual result:
Labour: 35.05%
Plaid Cymru: 15.00%
Conservative: 20.65%
Lib-Dems: 6.72%
UKIP: 0.84%
Green: 0.74%
Ind/Others: 20.99%
(TBC)
Possible reasons for error:
"Why should the poll have been so far out from the actual voting figures? There are several potential reasons. First, the poll was conducted around two weeks before the election, and many voters may have changed their minds in the intervening period. Polling companies normally like to conduct their ‘final call poll’, which is how their accuracy compared to the results is usually judged, as close as possible to an election – and certainly not two weeks beforehand. Second, local elections are particularly hard to poll in many places, including much of Wales, because of the strong tradition of local independent candidates and groups. Third, and perhaps most importantly, in many seats there were not candidates from all of the parties. Labour stood in the clear majority of Welsh seats, but the Conservatives only in about half, Plaid Cymru in somewhat fewer than half, the Lib-Dems in below one-quarter of all contests, and UKIP and the Greens in a much lower proportion even that that. Many voters may have intended to vote for a party in the local elections but been unable to do so for want of a local candidate.
"Nonetheless, while there are legitimate reasons to excuse at least some of the inaccuracy in our poll, we should also be open to the possibility that it reflected some genuine error in measuring party support. If so, those errors were in the direction of under-stating Labour support, and over-stating support for the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and UKIP. This should be born in mind over the next few weeks. Overall, our poll for the local elections certainly gave some indication of the direction in which the political wind was blowing, but not too accurate a reading of the strength of that wind."
In other words, the polling *might* be defective, but it looks like the main reason for the discrepancy is that an awful lot of voters were deprived of their ideal candidates. It is no surprise that Labour outperformed if it was the only party that managed to contest most of the seats on offer; moreover, IIRC, independents are especially common in Wales and often soak up a lot of the right-leaning vote.
At a General Election, Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru will all be contesting all forty Welsh seats. So the local election polling being so wide of the mark doesn't necessarily imply that the general election polling will also get the vote share terribly wrong.
Enjoy the rest of your holiday, if me I would not be wanting to come back.
I can see where the landslide is coming from !
FWIW I personally think the Labour is overstated as is the Tories. Lib Dems appear to be the new shy Tories.
And the taxi will only be a moment, apparently.
OK, they have. 46-32-7-8
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/13/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-conservatives-lead-across-social/
The overall ORB poll put the Tories on 46 per cent of the vote, Labour on 32, the Liberal Democrats on 8 and the UK Independence Party on 7.
For Tories it used to be the fear of violence or verbal abuse from the booted Thug Left.
If a LibDem is "shy" then that can only be for fear of being laughed at. Very different.
As for Greens, ORB tend to include them with Others.
Betting PostF1: after a lot of contemplation, the pre-race article, complete with two tips, is now up.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/spain-pre-race-2017.html