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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2017 sees a changed political geography with 3 new regions

SystemSystem Posts: 12,549
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2017 sees a changed political geography with 3 new regions

One of the striking aspects of this year’s election is the different constituencies over which this campaign is being fought.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    Lord (Robert) Hayward

    :))
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    he predicted both CON majority and LEAVE results.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    Thank you, my lord.

    In this region the Tories will now have to decide whether they fight for every seat or are more selective in their targeting. The defeat of both Alex Salmond and Angus Robertson may however be too attractive to disregard.

    I fear they might get a bit too ambitious, particularly as the unionists are relying on a lot of tactical voting without the ease of simply having others stand down to give you a clear run.

    It is also worth noting that the seats in both regions are generally outside the major cities and are what might possibly be described as ‘unnoticed communities’.

    Yeah, that makes sense. The sorts of places you get a sense of panic as they are mentioned, as you fear to take a guess where the hell they might be.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,706
    Lord Hayward on the ball here !
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    PeterMannion said:

    Lord (Robert) Hayward

    :))

    It's the first time I've seen a younger son of a duke or marquess use ( ... ) with their forename .. :smile:

    However an infusion of the nobility on thread writing is much to be commended.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    Well, once again with Corbyn his headline message 'Force is sometimes needed as a last resort, but UK shouldn't just toe the US line' is something that superficially will appeal to a great many people. He's having a good campaign so far, insofar as his own discipline at least, though I doubt he's making inroads, and that the uptick is more to do with Labour returners in support of the brand more than anything else.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    In all seriousness, that LD candidate who is telling people to vote Labour and he won't be campaigning, and voting LD in the seat is a wasted vote, if that's the way he, and presumably the local party, feel, why bother to stand at all? Save the £500 lost deposit and go whole hogg on the progressive alliance stuff, you might as well if you flat out tell people not to vote for you.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,806
    Nice article, Milord!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FPT

    Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.

    I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2017
    The most important of these new battlegrounds for Theresa May is Scotland.

    In the context of what looks set to be a majority of 100+, the handful of Scottish seats which might be won doesn’t at first sight look like a very significant factor in the electoral calculations of the Prime Minister.

    However, numbers aren’t everything. All seats are equal when it comes to trudging through the lobbies to support the government’s programme, but in terms of strategic political importance, each Scottish seat which the Tories can win is worth a great deal more than a seat in England & Wales. This is partly because of the mandate for the Brexit negotiation and the implications for IndyRef2, so that Nicola Sturgeon can't claim to speak for the whole of Scotland, and partly because it reinforces Theresa May's claim to govern for the whole country. And, who knows, in a few years maybe Scottish constituencies will once again be numerically significant for the Tories as well.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,047
    Statement of the obvious: if UKIP don't stand in 50% of seats it makes the chances of Tories getting 50% significantly higher but also increases chances of Labour getting over 30% since inevitably some UKIP voters will go back to Labour.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    Charles said:

    FPT

    Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.

    I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations

    If she is 'after them' why is she only promising a free vote rather than promising to repeal?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2017
    An excellent article from Lord Hayward – I'll need to read again tho, to fully comprehend it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    Andy_JS said:

    Statement of the obvious: if UKIP don't stand in 50% of seats it makes the chances of Tories getting 50% significantly higher but also increases chances of Labour getting over 30% since inevitably some UKIP voters will go back to Labour.

    Indeed - unless there's a turn in the next few weeks, I'd say 30% for Labour is assured. Corbyn's going nowhere.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    If PB Tories think backing fox hunting is a vote winner they truly are losers in the court of public opinion.

    We have a Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals and merely a National Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Children.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,047
    Let's not forget that Lord Hayward was MP for Kingswood from 1983 to 1992, next door to Bristol East where Jonathan Sayeed defeated Tony Benn.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    JackW said:

    PeterMannion said:

    Lord (Robert) Hayward

    :))

    It's the first time I've seen a younger son of a duke or marquess use ( ... ) with their forename .. :smile:

    However an infusion of the nobility on thread writing is much to be commended.
    My apologies Viscount (Jack). You are indeed correct to pick me up on this but he is widely known as Robert Hayward.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,701
    FPT: Mrs B, cheers for that answer.

    I do think there are reasonable arguments either side, although I don't have a dog in the fight.

    On-topic, interesting article, Lord Hayward.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,567
    Bromptonaut said:

    If PB Tories think backing fox hunting is a vote winner they truly are losers in the court of public opinion.

    We have a Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals and merely a National Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Children.

    I'll nibble.. which PB Tories have been saying that?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,706
    edited May 2017
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Statement of the obvious: if UKIP don't stand in 50% of seats it makes the chances of Tories getting 50% significantly higher but also increases chances of Labour getting over 30% since inevitably some UKIP voters will go back to Labour.

    Indeed - unless there's a turn in the next few weeks, I'd say 30% for Labour is assured. Corbyn's going nowhere.
    Laying Labour sub 20.0% looks solid enough on the exchanges at around 11/12-1.

    The Tories aren't near 55-60%.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,366
    Charles said:

    FPT

    Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.

    I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations

    Well, any policy with some sort of target group will presumably help with that group.

    But the percentage of the public who engage with hunting at all on a regular basis must be vanishingly small. The trouble with raising it as an issue is that it detracts from the core message or reaching out to moderate Labour (and Lib Dems) and talking their language.

    People who have no very strong feelings about hunting either way (i.e. most people) are inclined to say, "What are you on about? I'm worried about the Brexit deal, my wages and cost of living, my kid's school, my Dad's NHS care... and you seem to have spent the day talking about a bizarre, fringe issue of people I suspect probably are in the upper echelons of society". Now that's a little unfair, and it only really came up as a result of May failing to bat away a question effectively - but whatever was in the Tory grid for yesterday (and it wasn't hunting I'm sure) got lost.
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    I've just watched about five minutes of Jeremy Corbyn talking about defence and I have to say apart from the fact that this man's views chill me to the bone, he does look to be in his element in this kind of scenario.

    The conservatives really do need to up their game because I feel Jeremy Corbyn is going to hog the headlines "again".
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017
    Bromptonaut said:

    If PB Tories think backing fox hunting is a vote winner they truly are losers in the court of public opinion.

    We have a Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals and merely a National Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Children.

    Issue Index: Fox Hunting 0%

    Talking about it only illustrates how easily sidetracked and irrelevant the opposition is.

    The public will notice that Labour's stance on Brexit is so vague that it looks like Remain and will not deal with the public's top priorities.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MikeSmithson said:

    JackW said:

    PeterMannion said:

    Lord (Robert) Hayward

    :))

    It's the first time I've seen a younger son of a duke or marquess use ( ... ) with their forename .. :smile:

    However an infusion of the nobility on thread writing is much to be commended.
    My apologies Viscount (Jack). You are indeed correct to pick me up on this but he is widely known as Robert Hayward.

    Accepted, Dear Leader of PB .. :smile:

    Robert Hayward is an excellent addition to the team. Well done.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,997
    I mentioned it last night, but I know that in Bootle (Con gain obviously) that UKIP aren't standing this time.

    So where is that 11% of the vote going to go?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017
    "Gains in any, or all, of these regions will not only add to the Tory majority but also shift the orientation of the Government, if that is what it is to be, away from the area to the south of the Wash to the Severn and make the Tories a more national party."

    That's an entirely good thing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,706
    kle4 said:

    In all seriousness, that LD candidate who is telling people to vote Labour and he won't be campaigning, and voting LD in the seat is a wasted vote, if that's the way he, and presumably the local party, feel, why bother to stand at all? Save the £500 lost deposit and go whole hogg on the progressive alliance stuff, you might as well if you flat out tell people not to vote for you.

    He's been taken in hook, line and sinker by the more experienced bods at the BBC I'm afraid. Needs to brush up on his Grimmond before he steps foot in the studio next time !
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheValiant said:

    I mentioned it last night, but I know that in Bootle (Con gain obviously) that UKIP aren't standing this time.

    So where is that 11% of the vote going to go?

    Down the pub probably ....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,191
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The most important of these new battlegrounds for Theresa May is Scotland.

    In the context of what looks set to be a majority of 100+, the handful of Scottish seats which might be won doesn’t at first sight look like a very significant factor in the electoral calculations of the Prime Minister.

    However, numbers aren’t everything. All seats are equal when it comes to trudging through the lobbies to support the government’s programme, but in terms of strategic political importance, each Scottish seat which the Tories can win is worth a great deal more than a seat in England & Wales. This is partly because of the mandate for the Brexit negotiation and the implications for IndyRef2, so that Nicola Sturgeon can't claim to speak for the whole of Scotland, and partly because it reinforces Theresa May's claim to govern for the whole country. And, who knows, in a few years maybe Scottish constituencies will once again be numerically significant for the Tories as well.

    You must point out to me those occasions when Sturgeon has claimed to speak for the 'whole' of Scotland.
    What's the magic (minority) number of Scottish MPs you think May needs to be able to claim that she governs for Scotland?
  • RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233
    edited May 2017
    In 2015 UKIP polled 5072 votes in Wrexham and the Labour majority over the Conservatives was 1831. In 2017 UKIP aren't standing. This makes Wrexham very marginal indeed.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,116
    edited May 2017
    Judging by that speech, I think we can basically say corbyn wouldn't have backed action against the falklands (i think east timor and the med migrant crisis were interventions he agreed with)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,027
    Charles said:

    FPT

    Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.

    I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations

    A huge misapprehension about hunting is that it is toffs in red coats. 90% of a typical field in a typical hunt will be normal people.

    But you are getting dangerously close to pointing out the facts there with that observation.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,706
    edited May 2017
    Restharrow said:

    In 2015 UKIP polled 5072 votes in Wrexham and the Labour majority over the Conservatives was 1831. This makes Wrexham very marginal indeed.

    I don't think Wrexham will be particularly close, 8% Tory majority seat 349 in my model.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Innocent until proven guilty (not for Tories, obvs.)

    Nicola Sturgeon has refused to suspend a senior SNP politician after it emerged she is under investigation by a legal watchdog for alleged professional misconduct.

    Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, one of the 56 SNP MPs elected in the 2015 general election, is the subject of an inquiry by The Law Society of Scotland over her former career as a lawyer.

    She asked voters this week to re-elect her on June 8 as the Nationalist candidate for Ochil and South Perthshire, and said she was “co-operating fully” with the inquiry.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/12/nicola-sturgeon-refuses-suspend-tasmina-ahmed-sheikh-legal-watchdog/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,027
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.

    I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations

    Well, any policy with some sort of target group will presumably help with that group.

    But the percentage of the public who engage with hunting at all on a regular basis must be vanishingly small. The trouble with raising it as an issue is that it detracts from the core message or reaching out to moderate Labour (and Lib Dems) and talking their language.

    People who have no very strong feelings about hunting either way (i.e. most people) are inclined to say, "What are you on about? I'm worried about the Brexit deal, my wages and cost of living, my kid's school, my Dad's NHS care... and you seem to have spent the day talking about a bizarre, fringe issue of people I suspect probably are in the upper echelons of society". Now that's a little unfair, and it only really came up as a result of May failing to bat away a question effectively - but whatever was in the Tory grid for yesterday (and it wasn't hunting I'm sure) got lost.
    There isn't a core message yet, as defined by one that accompanies the manifesto launch. Of course there are existing messages..Brexit...strong and stable (gah)...grammar schools...

    But Tezza is simply shoring up support where it matters (on the streets and at the doorstep) and clearing the decks for more important announcements.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Theuniondivvie said:

    You must point out to me those occasions when Sturgeon has claimed to speak for the 'whole' of Scotland.

    http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=5178827459001
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,366
    UKIP's standing candidates in relatively few seats (looks to be about half) is a major error on their part.

    The Greens have already been kicking off about broadcast coverage, and this is grist to their mill.

    Broadcasters have to take into account evidence of past and current support in complying with impartiality obligations. There will almost certainly be substantially more Green than UKIP candidates and, combined with the local elections, it detracts from UKIP's case to get more coverage, Question Time slots and so on than the Greens. And, for the future, it simply limits their national vote share. This will adversely affect coverage in future elections. They ought to have found paper candidates and stood in 500+ seats. This is what a death spiral looks like.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    UKIP's standing candidates in relatively few seats (looks to be about half) is a major error on their part.

    Are they really standing against Peter Bone?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/862999972853280768
  • RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233
    Pulpstar said:

    Restharrow said:

    In 2015 UKIP polled 5072 votes in Wrexham and the Labour majority over the Conservatives was 1831. This makes Wrexham very marginal indeed.

    I don't think Wrexham will be particularly close, 8% Tory majority seat 349 in my model.
    It will be a seismic event if you are correct - a first for the Tories. I wonder how many other seats will be blue for the first time ever?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,027
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/862999972853280768

    Is there a Green factor there also?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,567
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/862999972853280768

    Don Valley!
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    LadyBucket said:

    I've just watched about five minutes of Jeremy Corbyn talking about defence and I have to say apart from the fact that this man's views chill me to the bone, he does look to be in his element in this kind of scenario.

    The conservatives really do need to up their game because I feel Jeremy Corbyn is going to hog the headlines "again".

    I think the opposite. His views will horrify the vast majority of every right thinking person in this country, and bashing America will not appeal to anyone outside of his personal core vote. Everyone said, under the full glare of election publicity, his past associations and personal beliefs would alarm - and indeed terrify - the general public.

    This election has got 1992 written all over. Those who don't know about Corbyn's real views will turn out to stop him winning power, like they did with Kinnock.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,706
    Brentford & Isleworth :D

    Have a modest amount on that one.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,191
    Scott_P said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    You must point out to me those occasions when Sturgeon has claimed to speak for the 'whole' of Scotland.

    http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=5178827459001
    So that's a 'no I can't point out such an occasion' from the Kippersinkilts rapid rebuttal team then?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,576
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/862999972853280768

    Don Valley!
    Yeh, hey. I'm on!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,706
    @Jason Rolling over the Macron winnings against Corbyn ?
  • chrisbchrisb Posts: 120
    FPT:
    chrisb said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Anybody seen a figure for how many seats UKIP is contesting?

    This may help:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/862958410677063680
    I've been doing my own totting up from the SoPNs and twitter. So far I get to 339 standing, 241 not standing, 52 still unconfirmed. That's not counting seats in NI.

    The 241 seats in which they are definitely not standing amounted to 1.2m votes, about 31% of their 2015 vote.

    There are bound to be some errors in that, but then again there are some errors in that democracyclub total - for example they are definitely standing in Ynys Môn.
    An update: I reckon the final tally of seats in which UKIP are standing will be around 375. That's around 61% of the seats they stood in last time round, but the seats they are standing in accounted for about 67% of their 2015 vote.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    Number of references to transsexuality in the Labour manifesto: 11.

    Until someone tells me that Keir Hardie used to dress up in a sequined number, Clement Attlee enjoyed wearing bloomers, and early male trade unionists in the South Wales coalfields got together to swap tips about shaving their legs and looking good in fishnets, I'm going to say that these references in the 2017 manifesto don't well express what the labour movement has fought for.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,366
    TOPPING said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.

    I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations

    Well, any policy with some sort of target group will presumably help with that group.

    But the percentage of the public who engage with hunting at all on a regular basis must be vanishingly small. The trouble with raising it as an issue is that it detracts from the core message or reaching out to moderate Labour (and Lib Dems) and talking their language.

    People who have no very strong feelings about hunting either way (i.e. most people) are inclined to say, "What are you on about? I'm worried about the Brexit deal, my wages and cost of living, my kid's school, my Dad's NHS care... and you seem to have spent the day talking about a bizarre, fringe issue of people I suspect probably are in the upper echelons of society". Now that's a little unfair, and it only really came up as a result of May failing to bat away a question effectively - but whatever was in the Tory grid for yesterday (and it wasn't hunting I'm sure) got lost.
    There isn't a core message yet, as defined by one that accompanies the manifesto launch. Of course there are existing messages..Brexit...strong and stable (gah)...grammar schools...

    But Tezza is simply shoring up support where it matters (on the streets and at the doorstep) and clearing the decks for more important announcements.
    Do you seriously think fox hunting was in the grid at Central Office for yesterday? I don't.

    She just didn't have the right answer to stop it from taking over as the lead story of the day for her party. It's not the first and won't be the last time it happens in this campaign (for all parties). But people are too keen to interpret their favoured leader's actions as brilliant tactical moves. This wasn't. It was a c*ck-up. Not a huge one or a game-changing one. But certainly a c*ck-up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,706
    I've backed Labour in Hove for tuppence ha'penny.

    Will the gay smoking crackdown in the manifesto be welcome down there ?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,351
    Thanks for the thread leader and the observations within it.

    I have indeed visited both Ellesmere Port and Wrexham!
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Statement of the obvious: if UKIP don't stand in 50% of seats it makes the chances of Tories getting 50% significantly higher but also increases chances of Labour getting over 30% since inevitably some UKIP voters will go back to Labour.

    Indeed - unless there's a turn in the next few weeks, I'd say 30% for Labour is assured. Corbyn's going nowhere.
    9/2 with coral that labour get 30-35% of the vote if you're that confirdent.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    TheValiant said:

    I mentioned it last night, but I know that in Bootle (Con gain obviously) that UKIP aren't standing this time.

    So where is that 11% of the vote going to go?

    It won't be going to the Conservative Party in Bootle

    You can take that to the Girobank
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Theuniondivvie said:

    So that's a 'no I can't point out such an occasion' from the Kippersinkilts rapid rebuttal team then?

    PMSL

    The Kippers in Kilts are the Zoomers you support...

    Every time Nicola speaks, she claims to do so "for Scotland"

    Watch the clip. Even a sourpuss like you must find it even mildly amusing.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Cyan said:

    Number of references to transsexuality in the Labour manifesto: 11.

    Until someone tells me that Keir Hardie used to dress up in a sequined number, Clement Attlee enjoyed wearing bloomers, and early male trade unionists in the South Wales coalfields got together to swap tips about shaving their legs and looking good in fishnets, I'm going to say that these references in the 2017 manifesto don't well express what the labour movement has fought for.

    For some reason this reminds me of the lumberjack song...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Meanwhile, Trump's awake.

    Is he about to ditch Spicer?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,706
    PaulM said:

    TheValiant said:

    I mentioned it last night, but I know that in Bootle (Con gain obviously) that UKIP aren't standing this time.

    So where is that 11% of the vote going to go?

    It won't be going to the Conservative Party in Bootle

    You can take that to the Girobank
    Off to the Lib Dems I reckon there.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    Good article, many thanks to OGH and Lord Hayward for the contribution.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,191
    Some much needed premature ejaculation prevention for the Ruthy fanbois.

    'Ruth Meets a Journalist'

    http://tinyurl.com/kfbuapg
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    edited May 2017
    Jason said:

    LadyBucket said:

    I've just watched about five minutes of Jeremy Corbyn talking about defence and I have to say apart from the fact that this man's views chill me to the bone, he does look to be in his element in this kind of scenario.

    The conservatives really do need to up their game because I feel Jeremy Corbyn is going to hog the headlines "again".

    I think the opposite. His views will horrify the vast majority of every right thinking person in this country, and bashing America will not appeal to anyone outside of his personal core vote.
    Plenty of people like the idea of standing up to america, even if they are not as overtly anti-american as Corbyn. The Tories are being complacent, assuming people will automatically dislike anything Corbyn says because he is the one saying it. I don't doubt he will find it harder to get a message across because he is not trusted or liked, but at the moment he is not making gaffes, he personally seems reasonable and affable when speaking, and he is moderating what he says to appear reasonable.

    The Tories need to do better if they want to win big. And I don't buy that they would rather not win big in order to keep Corbyn in place.
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/862999972853280768

    Don Valley!
    Still tight - TP needs a rise in the Con vote and almost all the UKIP vote.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    TOPPING said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.

    I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations

    Well, any policy with some sort of target group will presumably help with that group.

    But the percentage of the public who engage with hunting at all on a regular basis must be vanishingly small. The trouble with raising it as an issue is that it detracts from the core message or reaching out to moderate Labour (and Lib Dems) and talking their language.

    People who have no very strong feelings about hunting either way (i.e. most people) are inclined to say, "What are you on about? I'm worried about the Brexit deal, my wages and cost of living, my kid's school, my Dad's NHS care... and you seem to have spent the day talking about a bizarre, fringe issue of people I suspect probably are in the upper echelons of society". Now that's a little unfair, and it only really came up as a result of May failing to bat away a question effectively - but whatever was in the Tory grid for yesterday (and it wasn't hunting I'm sure) got lost.
    There isn't a core message yet, as defined by one that accompanies the manifesto launch. Of course there are existing messages..Brexit...strong and stable (gah)...grammar schools...

    But Tezza is simply shoring up support where it matters (on the streets and at the doorstep) and clearing the decks for more important announcements.
    taking over as the lead story of the day
    How many front pages?

    Not even mentioned on the BBC UK home page:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk

    Or the Politics page:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/politics

    Or the Election 2017 page:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2017
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,027
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    TOPPING said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.

    I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations

    Well, any policy with some sort of target group will presumably help with that group.

    But the percentage of the public who engage with hunting at all on a regular basis must be vanishingly small. The trouble with raising it as an issue is that it detracts from the core message or reaching out to moderate Labour (and Lib Dems) and talking their language.

    People who have no very strong feelings about hunting either way (i.e. most people) are inclined to say, "What are you on about? I'm worried about the Brexit deal, my wages and cost of living, my kid's school, my Dad's NHS care... and you seem to have spent the day talking about a bizarre, fringe issue of people I suspect probably are in the upper echelons of society". Now that's a little unfair, and it only really came up as a result of May failing to bat away a question effectively - but whatever was in the Tory grid for yesterday (and it wasn't hunting I'm sure) got lost.
    There isn't a core message yet, as defined by one that accompanies the manifesto launch. Of course there are existing messages..Brexit...strong and stable (gah)...grammar schools...

    But Tezza is simply shoring up support where it matters (on the streets and at the doorstep) and clearing the decks for more important announcements.
    Do you seriously think fox hunting was in the grid at Central Office for yesterday? I don't.

    She just didn't have the right answer to stop it from taking over as the lead story of the day for her party. It's not the first and won't be the last time it happens in this campaign (for all parties). But people are too keen to interpret their favoured leader's actions as brilliant tactical moves. This wasn't. It was a c*ck-up. Not a huge one or a game-changing one. But certainly a c*ck-up.
    It might not have been in the grid but it ensured that thousands of hours work across the country are secured by a willing set of volunteers who are in the "vanishingly small" number of people who give a **** about hunting.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,351
    edited May 2017
    Off topic, can any constituency match Wakefield for its alphabetically front-loaded candidates? Five on the ballot; the last of which is Finbarr Cronin.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.

    I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations

    A huge misapprehension about hunting is that it is toffs in red coats. 90% of a typical field in a typical hunt will be normal people.

    But you are getting dangerously close to pointing out the facts there with that observation.
    The Banwen Miners Hunt are called that for a reason. And I agree - barring the Beaufort on a Saturday most hunts are well under 50% toff, and that includes the mounted field. I hunt with my builder, my tree surgeon and the lady behind the till at the local petrol station.

    And without wishing to throw anyone else to the wolves, do these people not know about organized pheasant shooting? Harmless birds bred solely to be shot in numbers of 100s per day (more than most hunts killed foxes per season when they killed foxes), the remains sold to go in tinned cat food if they get utilised at all, and the cost of a day beyond anyone without a hedge fund.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,706
    david_herdson said:

    Off topic, can any constituency match Wakefield for its alphabetically front-loaded candidates? Five on the ballot; the last of which is Finbarr Cronin.

    Having an early surname is a massive boost particularly in multi-member wards !
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/862999972853280768

    Is there a Green factor there also?
    Yes, it'd be nice to see the same chart with the Green vote tallies and if they are standing. I think they are not in Ealing for instance.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Scott_P said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    You must point out to me those occasions when Sturgeon has claimed to speak for the 'whole' of Scotland.

    http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=5178827459001
    So that's a 'no I can't point out such an occasion' from the Kippersinkilts rapid rebuttal team then?

    She's certainly pivoted from the will of the Scottish people to the will of the Scottish Parliament when it comes to talkimg about Indyref2....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,191
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    So that's a 'no I can't point out such an occasion' from the Kippersinkilts rapid rebuttal team then?

    PMSL

    The Kippers in Kilts are the Zoomers you support...

    Every time Nicola speaks, she claims to do so "for Scotland"

    Watch the clip. Even a sourpuss like you must find it even mildly amusing.

    Then you'll easily be able to provide a link to Sturgeon claiming to speak for the whole of Scotland, won't you?

    How many ex Kippers, Brexiteers, racists and bigots became SCon councillors last week?
    Just a rough estimate will do.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    edited May 2017
    RobD said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    If PB Tories think backing fox hunting is a vote winner they truly are losers in the court of public opinion.

    We have a Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals and merely a National Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Children.

    I'll nibble.. which PB Tories have been saying that?
    Charles
    Charles said:

    FPT

    Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.

    I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    paulyork64 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Statement of the obvious: if UKIP don't stand in 50% of seats it makes the chances of Tories getting 50% significantly higher but also increases chances of Labour getting over 30% since inevitably some UKIP voters will go back to Labour.

    Indeed - unless there's a turn in the next few weeks, I'd say 30% for Labour is assured. Corbyn's going nowhere.
    9/2 with coral that labour get 30-35% of the vote if you're that confirdent.
    I am, that looks good to me.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,567
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    If PB Tories think backing fox hunting is a vote winner they truly are losers in the court of public opinion.

    We have a Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals and merely a National Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Children.

    I'll nibble.. which PB Tories have been saying that?
    Charles
    Charles said:

    FPT

    Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.

    I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations

    Hm, vote reinforcer rather than winner? ;)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,294
    Cyan said:

    Number of references to transsexuality in the Labour manifesto: 11.

    Until someone tells me that Keir Hardie used to dress up in a sequined number, Clement Attlee enjoyed wearing bloomers, and early male trade unionists in the South Wales coalfields got together to swap tips about shaving their legs and looking good in fishnets, I'm going to say that these references in the 2017 manifesto don't well express what the labour movement has fought for.

    I doubt it tops the list of concerns of Mansfield Man.

    (Can I lay claim to a first for "Mansfield Man" as this election's Worcester Woman?)
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    david_herdson said:

    Thanks for the thread leader and the observations within it.

    I have indeed visited both Ellesmere Port and Wrexham!

    Many people who attended Yale University make the trip to Wrexham.

    There is a book for Yale alumni to sign as they pay their respects to Elihu Yale, buried improbably enough in St Giles, Wrexham,
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited May 2017
    Charles said:

    FPT

    Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.

    I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations

    I disagree. I think it's about pumping up the richer and nastier Tory activists, by playing the "don't let the bearded commie oiks take away our fun" and "let's kill sentimentalism and the Labour party forever" card. The kind of cap doffer working class person who might be persuaded to vote Tory by Theresa May's support for foxhunting probably wouldn't dream of voting Labour.

    Or it could possibly be a cockup, as SirNorfolkPassmore says.

    I could make a killer Labour broadcast:

    FILM OF THERESA MAY SAYING "You know what some people call us – the Nasty Party."

    CUT TO A REDCOAT CARRYING THE TWITCHING BODY OF A SAVAGED FOX
    soundtrack: "the Nasty Party"

    CUT TO A CHILD AT A FOXHUNT WITH BLOOD SMEARED ON ITS FACE
    soundtrack: "the Nasty Party"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Scott_P said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    So that's a 'no I can't point out such an occasion' from the Kippersinkilts rapid rebuttal team then?

    PMSL

    The Kippers in Kilts are the Zoomers you support...

    Every time Nicola speaks, she claims to do so "for Scotland"

    Watch the clip. Even a sourpuss like you must find it even mildly amusing.
    How many ex Kippers, Brexiteers, racists and bigots became SCon councillors last week?
    Just a rough estimate will do.
    As many as ex-SNP MPs under police investigation?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,079
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    UKIP's standing candidates in relatively few seats (looks to be about half) is a major error on their part.

    The Greens have already been kicking off about broadcast coverage, and this is grist to their mill.

    Broadcasters have to take into account evidence of past and current support in complying with impartiality obligations. There will almost certainly be substantially more Green than UKIP candidates and, combined with the local elections, it detracts from UKIP's case to get more coverage, Question Time slots and so on than the Greens. And, for the future, it simply limits their national vote share. This will adversely affect coverage in future elections. They ought to have found paper candidates and stood in 500+ seats. This is what a death spiral looks like.

    On the other hand better to have no candidate than to have any old loonie with a nasty twitter record. But maybe they have them too?
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Cyan said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.

    I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations

    I disagree. I think it's about pumping up the richer and nastier Tory activists, by playing the "don't let the bearded commie oiks take away our fun" and "let's kill sentimentalism and the Labour party forever" card. The kind of cap doffer working class person who might be persuaded to vote Tory by Theresa May's support for foxhunting probably wouldn't dream of voting Labour.

    Or it could possibly be a cockup, as SirNorfolkPassmore says.

    I could make a killer Labour broadcast:

    FILM OF THERESA MAY SAYING "You know what some people call us – the Nasty Party."

    CUT TO A REDCOAT CARRYING THE TWITCHING BODY OF A SAVAGED FOX
    soundtrack: "the Nasty Party"

    CUT TO A CHILD AT A FOXHUNT WITH BLOOD SMEARED ON ITS FACE
    soundtrack: "the Nasty Party"
    do you remember the incredible shrinking man advert? yeah?

    that's you that is.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Then you'll easily be able to provide a link to Sturgeon claiming to speak for the whole of Scotland, won't you?

    Who does she claim to be speaking for in this clip?

    http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=5178827459001

    Take your time...
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,649
    LadyBucket said:

    I've just watched about five minutes of Jeremy Corbyn talking about defence and I have to say apart from the fact that this man's views chill me to the bone, he does look to be in his element in this kind of scenario.

    The conservatives really do need to up their game because I feel Jeremy Corbyn is going to hog the headlines "again".

    The whole Tory strategy centres around Corbyn hogging the headlines, doesn't it?
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited May 2017
    BannedInParis said:

    Cyan said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.

    I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations

    I disagree. I think it's about pumping up the richer and nastier Tory activists, by playing the "don't let the bearded commie oiks take away our fun" and "let's kill sentimentalism and the Labour party forever" card. The kind of cap doffer working class person who might be persuaded to vote Tory by Theresa May's support for foxhunting probably wouldn't dream of voting Labour.

    Or it could possibly be a cockup, as SirNorfolkPassmore says.

    I could make a killer Labour broadcast:

    FILM OF THERESA MAY SAYING "You know what some people call us – the Nasty Party."

    CUT TO A REDCOAT CARRYING THE TWITCHING BODY OF A SAVAGED FOX
    soundtrack: "the Nasty Party"

    CUT TO A CHILD AT A FOXHUNT WITH BLOOD SMEARED ON ITS FACE
    soundtrack: "the Nasty Party"
    do you remember the incredible shrinking man advert? yeah?

    that's you that is.
    No, I don't remember it because I probably never saw it. Seems that we're worlds apart culturally, old chap. My head's not full of adverts. Nor do I throw out many playground insults. Careful or I will confiscate your "smartphone" :)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,191
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Then you'll easily be able to provide a link to Sturgeon claiming to speak for the whole of Scotland, won't you?

    Who does she claim to be speaking for in this clip?

    http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=5178827459001

    Take your time...
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    so that Nicola Sturgeon can't claim to speak for the whole of Scotland

    Theuniondivvie said:


    You must point out to me those occasions when Sturgeon has claimed to speak for the 'whole' of Scotland.

    Take your time, Kipperboy.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Scott_P said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Then you'll easily be able to provide a link to Sturgeon claiming to speak for the whole of Scotland, won't you?

    Who does she claim to be speaking for in this clip?

    http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=5178827459001

    Take your time...
    When she's not speaking for Scotland its:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgoen/status/856589811171373057
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    kle4 said:

    paulyork64 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Statement of the obvious: if UKIP don't stand in 50% of seats it makes the chances of Tories getting 50% significantly higher but also increases chances of Labour getting over 30% since inevitably some UKIP voters will go back to Labour.

    Indeed - unless there's a turn in the next few weeks, I'd say 30% for Labour is assured. Corbyn's going nowhere.
    9/2 with coral that labour get 30-35% of the vote if you're that confirdent.
    I am, that looks good to me.
    yep I'm on. I have plenty of pro tory bets and I like to have some on the other side. Still to find a Pro LD bet that attracts me tho.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    LadyBucket said:

    I've just watched about five minutes of Jeremy Corbyn talking about defence and I have to say apart from the fact that this man's views chill me to the bone, he does look to be in his element in this kind of scenario.

    The conservatives really do need to up their game because I feel Jeremy Corbyn is going to hog the headlines "again".

    I think the opposite. His views will horrify the vast majority of every right thinking person in this country, and bashing America will not appeal to anyone outside of his personal core vote.
    Plenty of people like the idea of standing up to america, even if they are not as overtly anti-american as Corbyn. The Tories are being complacent, assuming people will automatically dislike anything Corbyn says because he is the one saying it. I don't doubt he will find it harder to get a message across because he is not trusted or liked, but at the moment he is not making gaffes, he personally seems reasonable and affable when speaking, and he is moderating what he says to appear reasonable.

    The Tories need to do better if they want to win big. And I don't buy that they would rather not win big in order to keep Corbyn in place.
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/862999972853280768

    Don Valley!
    Still tight - TP needs a rise in the Con vote and almost all the UKIP vote.
    I don't think you're living the real world, kle4, if you believe the public are warming to Corbyn. As far as gaffes go, I would say just about everything Corbyn says is a gaffe, but I'm guessing most of that is priced in anyway. There's an irony in what you say about him moderating his language - it's simply incredible. As for the Labour manifesto, let's see what the public thinks after Labour's costings have been scrutinised. I predict a complete meltdown in these so-called popular pledges.

    I agree to an extent that the Tories have so far been complacent (they can afford to) - but that will change markedly after next week. I don't think they've even started on Corbyn and McDonnell yet.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,593
    Cyan said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.

    I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations

    I disagree. I think it's about pumping up the richer and nastier Tory activists, by playing the "don't let the bearded commie oiks take away our fun" and "let's kill sentimentalism and the Labour party forever" card. The kind of cap doffer working class person who might be persuaded to vote Tory by Theresa May's support for foxhunting probably wouldn't dream of voting Labour.

    Or it could possibly be a cockup, as SirNorfolkPassmore says.

    I could make a killer Labour broadcast:

    FILM OF THERESA MAY SAYING "You know what some people call us – the Nasty Party."

    CUT TO A REDCOAT CARRYING THE TWITCHING BODY OF A SAVAGED FOX
    soundtrack: "the Nasty Party"

    CUT TO A CHILD AT A FOXHUNT WITH BLOOD SMEARED ON ITS FACE
    soundtrack: "the Nasty Party"
    Star wipe to a reconstruction of Boris on the phone trying to get that bloke beaten up.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    numbertwelve said:

    LadyBucket said:

    I've just watched about five minutes of Jeremy Corbyn talking about defence and I have to say apart from the fact that this man's views chill me to the bone, he does look to be in his element in this kind of scenario.

    The conservatives really do need to up their game because I feel Jeremy Corbyn is going to hog the headlines "again".

    The whole Tory strategy centres around Corbyn hogging the headlines, doesn't it?
    Yes. But they've got most of the headline writers on their side.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/862999972853280768

    The polls are showing a switch rate of between 35 and 40 percent.

    Throw in one in three Labour supporters not turning up as well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    numbertwelve said:

    LadyBucket said:

    I've just watched about five minutes of Jeremy Corbyn talking about defence and I have to say apart from the fact that this man's views chill me to the bone, he does look to be in his element in this kind of scenario.

    The conservatives really do need to up their game because I feel Jeremy Corbyn is going to hog the headlines "again".

    The whole Tory strategy centres around Corbyn hogging the headlines, doesn't it?
    Yes, but there's a problem to that if he is doing well enough to, to some small degree, reverse the drag on the labour vote he has caused to date. A few percentage points in the right place could make the difference for a lot of prospective Tory MPs.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/yougov/status/863005988743512064
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Scott_P said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Then you'll easily be able to provide a link to Sturgeon claiming to speak for the whole of Scotland, won't you?

    Who does she claim to be speaking for in this clip?

    http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=5178827459001

    Take your time...
    You're relying on the Nats well known sense of humour......yeh, that'll work......
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    UKIP's standing candidates in relatively few seats (looks to be about half) is a major error on their part.

    The Greens have already been kicking off about broadcast coverage, and this is grist to their mill.

    Broadcasters have to take into account evidence of past and current support in complying with impartiality obligations. There will almost certainly be substantially more Green than UKIP candidates and, combined with the local elections, it detracts from UKIP's case to get more coverage, Question Time slots and so on than the Greens. And, for the future, it simply limits their national vote share. This will adversely affect coverage in future elections. They ought to have found paper candidates and stood in 500+ seats. This is what a death spiral looks like.

    UKIP are still fighting more seats than did the Liberals pre-1974.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,197
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/862999972853280768

    The Regressive Alliance?
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    LadyBucket said:

    I've just watched about five minutes of Jeremy Corbyn talking about defence and I have to say apart from the fact that this man's views chill me to the bone, he does look to be in his element in this kind of scenario.

    The conservatives really do need to up their game because I feel Jeremy Corbyn is going to hog the headlines "again".

    I think the opposite. His views will horrify the vast majority of every right thinking person in this country, and bashing America will not appeal to anyone outside of his personal core vote.
    Plenty of people like the idea of standing up to america, even if they are not as overtly anti-american as Corbyn. The Tories are being complacent, assuming people will automatically dislike anything Corbyn says because he is the one saying it. I don't doubt he will find it harder to get a message across because he is not trusted or liked, but at the moment he is not making gaffes, he personally seems reasonable and affable when speaking, and he is moderating what he says to appear reasonable.

    The Tories need to do better if they want to win big. And I don't buy that they would rather not win big in order to keep Corbyn in place.
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/862999972853280768

    Don Valley!
    Still tight - TP needs a rise in the Con vote and almost all the UKIP vote.
    I don't think you're living the real world, kle4, if you believe the public are warming to Corbyn. As far as gaffes go, I would say just about everything Corbyn says is a gaffe, but I'm guessing most of that is priced in anyway. There's an irony in what you say about him moderating his language - it's simply incredible. As for the Labour manifesto, let's see what the public thinks after Labour's costings have been scrutinised. I predict a complete meltdown in these so-called popular pledges.

    I agree to an extent that the Tories have so far been complacent (they can afford to) - but that will change markedly after next week. I don't think they've even started on Corbyn and McDonnell yet.</>

    I completely agree. The Tory election machine hasn't even warmed up yet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    LadyBucket said:

    I've just watched about five minutes of Jeremy Corbyn talking about defence and I have to say apart from the fact that this man's views chill me to the bone, he does look to be in his element in this kind of scenario.

    The conservatives really do need to up their game because I feel Jeremy Corbyn is going to hog the headlines "again".

    I think the opposite. His views will horrify the vast majority of every right thinking person in this country, and bashing America will not appeal to anyone outside of his personal core vote.
    Plenty of people like the idea of standing up to america, even if they are not as overtly anti-american as Corbyn. The Tories are being complacent, assuming people will automatically dislike anything Corbyn says because he is the one saying it. I don't doubt he will find it harder to get a message across because he is not trusted or liked, but at the moment he is not making gaffes, he personally seems reasonable and affable when speaking, and he is moderating what he says to appear reasonable.

    The Tories need to do better if they want to win big. And I don't buy that they would rather not win big in order to keep Corbyn in place.
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/862999972853280768

    Don Valley!
    Still tight - TP needs a rise in the Con vote and almost all the UKIP vote.
    I don't think you're living the real world, kle4, if you believe the public are warming to Corbyn.

    I didn't say that. But he hasn't been making things any worse during the campaign to date, and in terms of firming up the Labour vote that could be the difference in plenty of seats. Appearing more reasonable may not win him many extra votes, because he is not trusted or liked, but there is a battle over whether Labour voters will turnout and how many might dislike him enough to vote for someone else. If the Tories give him a free hand those people might give him a chance, and that could be the difference between a bad night and a disastrous night.

    I'm sure the Tories have loads lined up against him, and I'm not voting for any Labour candidate at any level while Corbyn is leader, but I think they're overestimating how offputting he will be in general.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,744
    OT. I just got my first election literature. A large photo of Jeremy Corbyn looking like Streinikov in Dr Zhivago. It was from the Lib Dems
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Cyan said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.

    I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations

    I disagree. I think it's about pumping up the richer and nastier Tory activists, by playing the "don't let the bearded commie oiks take away our fun" and "let's kill sentimentalism and the Labour party forever" card. The kind of cap doffer working class person who might be persuaded to vote Tory by Theresa May's support for foxhunting probably wouldn't dream of voting Labour.

    Or it could possibly be a cockup, as SirNorfolkPassmore says.

    I could make a killer Labour broadcast:

    FILM OF THERESA MAY SAYING "You know what some people call us – the Nasty Party."

    CUT TO A REDCOAT CARRYING THE TWITCHING BODY OF A SAVAGED FOX
    soundtrack: "the Nasty Party"

    CUT TO A CHILD AT A FOXHUNT WITH BLOOD SMEARED ON ITS FACE
    soundtrack: "the Nasty Party"
    Oh look, class hatred and impenetrable stupidity in one handy package.

    I do hope you are going to enjoy the next five years as much as I am.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,027
    Cyan said:

    Charles said:

    FPT

    Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.

    I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations

    I disagree. I think it's about pumping up the richer and nastier Tory activists, by playing the "don't let the bearded commie oiks take away our fun" and "let's kill sentimentalism and the Labour party forever" card. The kind of cap doffer working class person who might be persuaded to vote Tory by Theresa May's support for foxhunting probably wouldn't dream of voting Labour.

    Or it could possibly be a cockup, as SirNorfolkPassmore says.

    I could make a killer Labour broadcast:

    FILM OF THERESA MAY SAYING "You know what some people call us – the Nasty Party."

    CUT TO A REDCOAT CARRYING THE TWITCHING BODY OF A SAVAGED FOX
    soundtrack: "the Nasty Party"

    CUT TO A CHILD AT A FOXHUNT WITH BLOOD SMEARED ON ITS FACE
    soundtrack: "the Nasty Party"
    Hmm I think it needs work.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,706
    Blue_rog said:

    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    LadyBucket said:

    I've just watched about five minutes of Jeremy Corbyn talking about defence and I have to say apart from the fact that this man's views chill me to the bone, he does look to be in his element in this kind of scenario.

    The conservatives really do need to up their game because I feel Jeremy Corbyn is going to hog the headlines "again".

    I think the opposite. His views will horrify the vast majority of every right thinking person in this country, and bashing America will not appeal to anyone outside of his personal core vote.
    Plenty of people like the idea of standing up to america, even if they are not as overtly anti-american as Corbyn. The Tories are being complacent, assuming people will automatically dislike anything Corbyn says because he is the one saying it. I don't doubt he will find it harder to get a message across because he is not trusted or liked, but at the moment he is not making gaffes, he personally seems reasonable and affable when speaking, and he is moderating what he says to appear reasonable.

    The Tories need to do better if they want to win big. And I don't buy that they would rather not win big in order to keep Corbyn in place.
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/862999972853280768

    Don Valley!
    Still tight - TP needs a rise in the Con vote and almost all the UKIP vote.
    I don't think you're living the real world, kle4, if you believe the public are warming to Corbyn. As far as gaffes go, I would say just about everything Corbyn says is a gaffe, but I'm guessing most of that is priced in anyway. There's an irony in what you say about him moderating his language - it's simply incredible. As for the Labour manifesto, let's see what the public thinks after Labour's costings have been scrutinised. I predict a complete meltdown in these so-called popular pledges.

    I agree to an extent that the Tories have so far been complacent (they can afford to) - but that will change markedly after next week. I don't think they've even started on Corbyn and McDonnell yet.</>

    I completely agree. The Tory election machine hasn't even warmed up yet.
    Bit of light monstering of Corbyn on the front of the Daily Mail today.

    The car is into first gear anyway.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/yougov/status/863005988743512064

    Ok, I cannot defend that nonsense.
This discussion has been closed.