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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2017 sees a changed political geography with 3 new regions

One of the striking aspects of this year’s election is the different constituencies over which this campaign is being fought.
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In this region the Tories will now have to decide whether they fight for every seat or are more selective in their targeting. The defeat of both Alex Salmond and Angus Robertson may however be too attractive to disregard.
I fear they might get a bit too ambitious, particularly as the unionists are relying on a lot of tactical voting without the ease of simply having others stand down to give you a clear run.
It is also worth noting that the seats in both regions are generally outside the major cities and are what might possibly be described as ‘unnoticed communities’.
Yeah, that makes sense. The sorts of places you get a sense of panic as they are mentioned, as you fear to take a guess where the hell they might be.
However an infusion of the nobility on thread writing is much to be commended.
Also worth noting that in Wales, Lancashire and the West Country hunting isn't really a "toff" activity. It's not the horsemen from the HH or the Vine that May is after. It's the working class folks who hunt on foot.
I suspect this could reinforce some of the appeal in rather unexpected locations
In the context of what looks set to be a majority of 100+, the handful of Scottish seats which might be won doesn’t at first sight look like a very significant factor in the electoral calculations of the Prime Minister.
However, numbers aren’t everything. All seats are equal when it comes to trudging through the lobbies to support the government’s programme, but in terms of strategic political importance, each Scottish seat which the Tories can win is worth a great deal more than a seat in England & Wales. This is partly because of the mandate for the Brexit negotiation and the implications for IndyRef2, so that Nicola Sturgeon can't claim to speak for the whole of Scotland, and partly because it reinforces Theresa May's claim to govern for the whole country. And, who knows, in a few years maybe Scottish constituencies will once again be numerically significant for the Tories as well.
We have a Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals and merely a National Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Children.
I do think there are reasonable arguments either side, although I don't have a dog in the fight.
On-topic, interesting article, Lord Hayward.
The Tories aren't near 55-60%.
But the percentage of the public who engage with hunting at all on a regular basis must be vanishingly small. The trouble with raising it as an issue is that it detracts from the core message or reaching out to moderate Labour (and Lib Dems) and talking their language.
People who have no very strong feelings about hunting either way (i.e. most people) are inclined to say, "What are you on about? I'm worried about the Brexit deal, my wages and cost of living, my kid's school, my Dad's NHS care... and you seem to have spent the day talking about a bizarre, fringe issue of people I suspect probably are in the upper echelons of society". Now that's a little unfair, and it only really came up as a result of May failing to bat away a question effectively - but whatever was in the Tory grid for yesterday (and it wasn't hunting I'm sure) got lost.
The conservatives really do need to up their game because I feel Jeremy Corbyn is going to hog the headlines "again".
Talking about it only illustrates how easily sidetracked and irrelevant the opposition is.
The public will notice that Labour's stance on Brexit is so vague that it looks like Remain and will not deal with the public's top priorities.
Robert Hayward is an excellent addition to the team. Well done.
So where is that 11% of the vote going to go?
That's an entirely good thing.
What's the magic (minority) number of Scottish MPs you think May needs to be able to claim that she governs for Scotland?
But you are getting dangerously close to pointing out the facts there with that observation.
Nicola Sturgeon has refused to suspend a senior SNP politician after it emerged she is under investigation by a legal watchdog for alleged professional misconduct.
Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, one of the 56 SNP MPs elected in the 2015 general election, is the subject of an inquiry by The Law Society of Scotland over her former career as a lawyer.
She asked voters this week to re-elect her on June 8 as the Nationalist candidate for Ochil and South Perthshire, and said she was “co-operating fully” with the inquiry.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/12/nicola-sturgeon-refuses-suspend-tasmina-ahmed-sheikh-legal-watchdog/
But Tezza is simply shoring up support where it matters (on the streets and at the doorstep) and clearing the decks for more important announcements.
The Greens have already been kicking off about broadcast coverage, and this is grist to their mill.
Broadcasters have to take into account evidence of past and current support in complying with impartiality obligations. There will almost certainly be substantially more Green than UKIP candidates and, combined with the local elections, it detracts from UKIP's case to get more coverage, Question Time slots and so on than the Greens. And, for the future, it simply limits their national vote share. This will adversely affect coverage in future elections. They ought to have found paper candidates and stood in 500+ seats. This is what a death spiral looks like.
This election has got 1992 written all over. Those who don't know about Corbyn's real views will turn out to stop him winning power, like they did with Kinnock.
Have a modest amount on that one.
Until someone tells me that Keir Hardie used to dress up in a sequined number, Clement Attlee enjoyed wearing bloomers, and early male trade unionists in the South Wales coalfields got together to swap tips about shaving their legs and looking good in fishnets, I'm going to say that these references in the 2017 manifesto don't well express what the labour movement has fought for.
She just didn't have the right answer to stop it from taking over as the lead story of the day for her party. It's not the first and won't be the last time it happens in this campaign (for all parties). But people are too keen to interpret their favoured leader's actions as brilliant tactical moves. This wasn't. It was a c*ck-up. Not a huge one or a game-changing one. But certainly a c*ck-up.
Will the gay smoking crackdown in the manifesto be welcome down there ?
I have indeed visited both Ellesmere Port and Wrexham!
You can take that to the Girobank
The Kippers in Kilts are the Zoomers you support...
Every time Nicola speaks, she claims to do so "for Scotland"
Watch the clip. Even a sourpuss like you must find it even mildly amusing.
Is he about to ditch Spicer?
'Ruth Meets a Journalist'
http://tinyurl.com/kfbuapg
The Tories need to do better if they want to win big. And I don't buy that they would rather not win big in order to keep Corbyn in place. Still tight - TP needs a rise in the Con vote and almost all the UKIP vote.
Not even mentioned on the BBC UK home page:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk
Or the Politics page:
http://www.bbc.com/news/politics
Or the Election 2017 page:
http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2017
And without wishing to throw anyone else to the wolves, do these people not know about organized pheasant shooting? Harmless birds bred solely to be shot in numbers of 100s per day (more than most hunts killed foxes per season when they killed foxes), the remains sold to go in tinned cat food if they get utilised at all, and the cost of a day beyond anyone without a hedge fund.
She's certainly pivoted from the will of the Scottish people to the will of the Scottish Parliament when it comes to talkimg about Indyref2....
Then you'll easily be able to provide a link to Sturgeon claiming to speak for the whole of Scotland, won't you?
How many ex Kippers, Brexiteers, racists and bigots became SCon councillors last week?
Just a rough estimate will do.
(Can I lay claim to a first for "Mansfield Man" as this election's Worcester Woman?)
There is a book for Yale alumni to sign as they pay their respects to Elihu Yale, buried improbably enough in St Giles, Wrexham,
Or it could possibly be a cockup, as SirNorfolkPassmore says.
I could make a killer Labour broadcast:
FILM OF THERESA MAY SAYING "You know what some people call us – the Nasty Party."
CUT TO A REDCOAT CARRYING THE TWITCHING BODY OF A SAVAGED FOX
soundtrack: "the Nasty Party"
CUT TO A CHILD AT A FOXHUNT WITH BLOOD SMEARED ON ITS FACE
soundtrack: "the Nasty Party"
that's you that is.
http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=5178827459001
Take your time...
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgoen/status/856589811171373057
I agree to an extent that the Tories have so far been complacent (they can afford to) - but that will change markedly after next week. I don't think they've even started on Corbyn and McDonnell yet.
Throw in one in three Labour supporters not turning up as well.
I'm sure the Tories have loads lined up against him, and I'm not voting for any Labour candidate at any level while Corbyn is leader, but I think they're overestimating how offputting he will be in general.
I do hope you are going to enjoy the next five years as much as I am.
The car is into first gear anyway.