Thread title reminds me of when Harman railed against women being called 'love'. Did make me wonder if she'd ever heard of Yorkshire.
On the thread itself, surely this is because ideological belief in the EU is a priori? They have a belief ('more Europe' = better), and stick to it. It's not reasoned. If it were, they'd examine the evidence and reach a conclusion as per science. But because it's faith, ideology, over sceptical reason, they already know the answer.
When you already know the truth, dissent is heresy.
Mr. Urquhart, same happened to me, fortunately I'd copied the above.
No 20%+ lead for the Tories, very disappointing for them. Interesting that the sun used to use yougov and now times using them but sun using icm
Things seem to have evened out a bit. Tories 45-48 Lab 27-30 LD 8-12. UKIP still too high since they won't get 8% even if 8% want to vote for them, since they're not standing in many places they might previously have done well, in support of hard brexit MPs.
Even if you have right or the law or a majority on your side, a touch of humility, an acceptance that the other side is entitled to feel whatever it is they are feeling, that they have a point – even if you do not agree with it – can help defuse a heated situation
Indeed.
It is hard to argue with the ultimate conclusion of this piece:
Time for BOTH to say less in public and think more.
Has our governments approach been perfect? Of course not. Has the EU's position been as logical and consistent as some of its defenders claim? Of course not. Is there value in deciding which one is playing it worse? Maybe, maybe not. Presently both are presenting as the only rational ones, when neither is being wholly rational, which to some extent is to be expected in a political issue, but one hopes it will sort itself out.
That the EU ignored problems before and still might is a serious worry, because a strong EU is fine with me if that is what the people in it want, which they do, and making encouraging noises then getting complacent and then uppity about anyone expressing dissatisfaction has been a real issue.
When faced with two extreme positions - evil Brussells vs idiotic Brits - the answer is not always directly in the middle, but it is highly unlikely to be close to either extreme position. Whether one agrees with the conclusions, or even sometimes the underlying premises, you can always say Cyclefree pieces make you think at least.
P.S 'Lublin'?
Interestingly the vanilla bug strikes even if you are posting from the main site.
Allowing herself to be wound-up by a washed-out, powerless drunk from Luxembourg who will have almost no role in the negotiations does not augur well for the times when our PM has to meet serious and powerful players from the EU. Toy throwing and baseless accusations might win elections, but they rarely deliver good agreements.
"An EU that genuinely understood European culture and history would instinctively understand that the perspectives of London and Lublin are likely to be very different, that what may be right for one is not right for the other and would seek to accommodate such views rather than to quash them."
There is a third way, which is to accept those views at face value. Brexit means Brexit, and if we don't like what that means, it's our own fault. It's not the EU's job to save us from ourselves if we are determined to indulge our illusions.
As for the lessons of Brexit, the Commission has put forward a range of options for the path forwards for the EU, including a 'nothing but the single market' approach. If the UK government had taken a different stance since the referendum, we might even have had a voice in the debate.
As always, a fine and balanced thread from Ms @Cyclefree.
Hopefully, when it gets down to the serious negotiations, everyone will calm down a little, keep private things private and understand that they right way forward is a mutually beneficial deal.
Knock a 2-3 points off labour and give it to the lib dems and might be about right. If labour actually 2-3 points higher, corbyn / mcmao double act ain't going anywhere.
Knock a 2-3 points off labour and give it to the lib dems and might be about right. If labour actually 2-3 points higher, corbyn / mcmao double act ain't going anywhere.
Agree but also knock two or three points off the Conservative share.
O/T, political blogger and cancer sufferer Suzanne Cameron-Blackie, 68, also known as Anna Raccon, is standing as an independent against Corbyn in Islington.
Her main platform is calling for reforms of how the NHS deals with negligence claims, spending billions on lawyers and unnecessary compensation which should be going into patient care.
Well, I'm sure it did not help, but the word 'responsible' is probably a bit much - it rather suggests that all those people on the doorstep who say 'the problem is Corbyn' would think differently if various MPs kept their traps shut, even as they are derided by other members are not having a connection with the real public.
' If the headline figures are not miserable enough for Labour, their apparent capitulation in their own key marginals continues to look like a real prospect. On this poll the Conservatives lead in such places by 19-points – slightly out performing their national share – putting them on the highest figure yet we’ve seen in these crucial constituencies. This would imply wipe-out for Labour, losing to the Tories by such a margin according to these numbers that Theresa May would return to Downing Street armed with an overall majority of at least 132 seats. '
' If the headline figures are not miserable enough for Labour, their apparent capitulation in their own key marginals continues to look like a real prospect. On this poll the Conservatives lead in such places by 19-points – slightly out performing their national share – putting them on the highest figure yet we’ve seen in these crucial constituencies. This would imply wipe-out for Labour, losing to the Tories by such a margin according to these numbers that Theresa May would return to Downing Street armed with an overall majority of at least 132 seats. '
In a way, Britain has behaved like a woman who fakes psychotic madness when menaced by a groping perv - the perv thinks, Jesus, probably not worth it, she might stab me to death.
"It is fine for a German politician to tweet that “The British government must abandon myth that all British will be better off post-Brexit.” More fruitful might be to abandon the myth that all British were better off before Brexit and, indeed, that all Europeans are better off as a result of the EU’s decisions in recent years."
This interests me in terms of how we define "better off". It could mean less tax, it might mean shorter waiting lists, higher interest rates, more jobs etc etc. Everybody has their own idea of what it means, it is impossible that everybody is "better off".
Pretty good then? I mean, were they expecting more abstentions this time?
Alot of nonsense being written suggesting it could give Le Pen victory. Tbh 0.3% down at this point might help her at the margins, like getting her from 38.5% to 39% say but that is about it.
In a way, Britain has behaved like a woman who fakes psychotic madness when menaced by a groping perv - the perv thinks, Jesus, probably not worth it, she might stab me to death.
Well, I'm sure it did not help, but the word 'responsible' is probably a bit much - it rather suggests that all those people on the doorstep who say 'the problem is Corbyn' would think differently if various MPs kept their traps shut, even as they are derided by other members are not having a connection with the real public.
Ronnie's feeling the heat. He must know that the Tories have a fighting odds against shot in his seat.
"An EU that genuinely understood European culture and history would instinctively understand that the perspectives of London and Lublin are likely to be very different, that what may be right for one is not right for the other and would seek to accommodate such views rather than to quash them."
There is a third way, which is to accept those views at face value. Brexit means Brexit, and if we don't like what that means, it's our own fault. It's not the EU's job to save us from ourselves if we are determined to indulge our illusions.
As for the lessons of Brexit, the Commission has put forward a range of options for the path forwards for the EU, including a 'nothing but the single market' approach. If the UK government had taken a different stance since the referendum, we might even have had a voice in the debate.
No we wouldn't. The EU is not a benign organisation looking out for the best for all its member states. It is an entity in its own right run by people who believe, like you, that the nation state has no future. It is only playing lip service to the 'nothing but the single market' approach and would not have paid any attention to the UK even if our approach had been different.
' If the headline figures are not miserable enough for Labour, their apparent capitulation in their own key marginals continues to look like a real prospect. On this poll the Conservatives lead in such places by 19-points – slightly out performing their national share – putting them on the highest figure yet we’ve seen in these crucial constituencies. This would imply wipe-out for Labour, losing to the Tories by such a margin according to these numbers that Theresa May would return to Downing Street armed with an overall majority of at least 132 seats. '
Knock a 2-3 points off labour and give it to the lib dems and might be about right. If labour actually 2-3 points higher, corbyn / mcmao double act ain't going anywhere.
Agree but also knock two or three points off the Conservative share.
Oh absolutely.... Polling disaster inquiry mark II coming up.
Knock a 2-3 points off labour and give it to the lib dems and might be about right. If labour actually 2-3 points higher, corbyn / mcmao double act ain't going anywhere.
Agree but also knock two or three points off the Conservative share.
Oh absolutely.... Polling disaster inquiry mark II coming up.
I can well see the Tory vote share not holding up but the seats being beyond the expectations for the vote shares. So in the end it'll even up to a straighjt baxter of the polls, and noone will care that the polls were out
"An EU that genuinely understood European culture and history would instinctively understand that the perspectives of London and Lublin are likely to be very different, that what may be right for one is not right for the other and would seek to accommodate such views rather than to quash them."
There is a third way, which is to accept those views at face value. Brexit means Brexit, and if we don't like what that means, it's our own fault. It's not the EU's job to save us from ourselves if we are determined to indulge our illusions.
That you think only one side can make good points, and that that side is incapable of making any sort of misstep, makes anything you say on the subject meaningless since such an attitude means you are not using any sort of analysis whatsoever - you can make points that may be true at times, particularly on our expectations, but that is stopped clock syndrome. It is the most extreme form of partisanship I have ever seen, as even robots go off message due to bugs.
Heck, even Tusk among others have chided the EU approach and the organisation itself more than you, for lack of discretion for one thing, and because he and others know the EU has issues to deal with, challenges to face. And if the President of the European Council is coming across as more realistic and reasonable even though he is definitely fighting for the best of the EU and will be firm with us, don't you think your stance is unrealistic?
No, don't answer that, I know what you will say. The EU is the only one that is right about everything and it is impossible for the UK to be right about anything, no matter how small a point that may be, and it is impossible for the EU to make a misstep even though they are human beings too.
The way you talk about the EU, more fanatically than any senior EU official or head of government I have ever seen, is astonishing. Guy Verhofstadt is a passionate and vocal supporter of the EU project, he can be pretty rude toward those who do not share his vision, but even he does not seem as extreme as you.
Here we are moving into the middle of the 21st century and we're still guessing what election outcomes might be. It shouldn't really be possible that valid cases can be made for the Lib Dems winning 6, 16, and 26 seats. I know Ashcroft's constituency polling was seen as a failed experiment, but surely we need to learn from it rather than abandoning the idea altogether. For example, rather than small samples in lots of seats, large samples in, say, 4 or 5 seats would give very valuable data. Anecdote is useful but can't be trusted.
As always, an excellent and well written thread header from Ms Cyclefree. My only comment being that Mme Le Pen has gotten to (say) 38% in the second round by ditching many of the historic policies of the FN, and going all Kirchner on us. I suspect if you surveyed the people in the vast majority of developed countries and asked questions like: do you think the government policies should look to protect and nurture national businesses? do think firms outsource too much to low cost countries? etc., then you'd see a similar level of support everywhere. Heck, Donald Trump just got elected on a Kirchner-esque platform.
The real tragedy of European politics is that the bulk of Eurosceptics are unsuitable for office. Geert Wilders is a total nut job. Berlusconi makes Fillon look like a model of probity. And Mme Le Pen represents a party that said as recently as 2009 that the Holocaust was a mere "detail" of history.
Allowing herself to be wound-up by a washed-out, powerless drunk from Luxembourg who will have almost no role in the negotiations does not augur well for the times when our PM has to meet serious and powerful players from the EU. Toy throwing and baseless accusations might win elections, but they rarely deliver good agreements.
Perhaps someone in the EU could take Juncker to one side and inform him he is powerless?
Allowing herself to be wound-up by a washed-out, powerless drunk from Luxembourg who will have almost no role in the negotiations does not augur well for the times when our PM has to meet serious and powerful players from the EU. Toy throwing and baseless accusations might win elections, but they rarely deliver good agreements.
In that case they won't be as stupid as Juncker and in response T. May will be as constructive as she has generally been except when briefed against so blatantly as was the case last week.
The EU isn't our problem any more and we certainly aren't their problem. We have no choice but to deal with an organisation that is going to mostly ignore us from now on. The good news however is that there is a deal to be had if we don't stupidly walk away (depends on Mrs May doing a Grand Old Duke of York, which she might not be happy about).
On a related note, John Harris makes an astute observation about Leavers in his column in the Guardian of a couple of days ago. If the motivation for Remainers was largely continuity, Leavers were after disruption to the status quo. But there is no evidence that they actually accept the disruption they voted for.
Cyclefree, have I got a book for you, based on this header. "Immunity to Change" by Kegan and Lahey at Harvard.
The central tenet of the book is that, to have achieved the successes we have to date, we have behaved in certain ways on certain assumptions and that our successes have continuously reinforced these.
Some of these assumptions have become so accepted that they are invisible to us. And while we might seek to learn, improve and change in areas we know we must, the behaviours required to make such change run counter to these invisible assumptions and so our efforts to improve founder (hence why people who really want to lose weight fail, or a new promoted manager knows she must delegate now, but fails to do so successfully).
The EU's invisible assumptions are the 4 Freedoms. They are unquestionable to the EU true believers because they are now invisible, dogma rather than assumptions.
As for negotiating style, I agree in general with you. But the leak from Juncker and Selmayr was so egregious that it required a warning shot. While May's response was shocking, perhaps that is precisely what was needed - a short, sharp shock. It seems to have had a salutary effect on Tusk and Merkel. Let's hope that it has righted the ship, and that both sides will now concentrate on the constructive. I think that requires Barnier keeping Juncker and Selmayr away from the British team.
In my view the biggest danger for the EU internally comes from 5* in Italy next year, not FN in France this year
I think that's absolutely right.
It will be interesting to see if the right consolidates in Italy. People forget how close the 2013 election was in Italy, with Forza Italia only a fraction behind the DP. (And 5* not much behind Forza.)
Allowing herself to be wound-up by a washed-out, powerless drunk from Luxembourg who will have almost no role in the negotiations does not augur well for the times when our PM has to meet serious and powerful players from the EU. Toy throwing and baseless accusations might win elections, but they rarely deliver good agreements.
In that case they won't be as stupid as Juncker and in response T. May will be as constructive as she has generally been except when briefed against so blatantly as was the case last week.
They will have observed that Mrs May is extremely thin-skinned, it is true. Not sure how that helps us get a good deal, but hopefully once the election is out of the way she will drop the White Cliffs of Dover shtick and become a grown-up.
' If the headline figures are not miserable enough for Labour, their apparent capitulation in their own key marginals continues to look like a real prospect. On this poll the Conservatives lead in such places by 19-points – slightly out performing their national share – putting them on the highest figure yet we’ve seen in these crucial constituencies. This would imply wipe-out for Labour, losing to the Tories by such a margin according to these numbers that Theresa May would return to Downing Street armed with an overall majority of at least 132 seats. '
Allowing herself to be wound-up by a washed-out, powerless drunk from Luxembourg who will have almost no role in the negotiations does not augur well for the times when our PM has to meet serious and powerful players from the EU. Toy throwing and baseless accusations might win elections, but they rarely deliver good agreements.
Perhaps someone in the EU could take Juncker to one side and inform him he is powerless?
The shock might kill him. Or his laughing fit.
He gets to run the Commission, which does as it is told by the Council of Ministers. Lots of nice lunches with important people though.
On a related note, John Harris makes an astute observation about Leavers in his column in the Guardian of a couple of days ago. If the motivation for Remainers was largely continuity, Leavers were after disruption to the status quo. But there is no evidence that they actually accept the disruption they voted for.
No
If there is disruption, Leavers will not accept that it was a result of their vote.
This is an interesting article on Brexit thinking, which could have been written by exclusively reading SeanT over the past year
That is neither here nor there now: the referendum was lost. What is very much still relevant is that the same hermetically-sealed, evidence-proof and argument-proof logic now drives government policy. And it drives it in one direction only: towards a more and more calamitous form of Brexit. Each time reality demolishes one of their claims (the most ubiquitous, perhaps, and the most absurd, certainly, being that German car makers would ensure a good deal in double quick time) the Brexiters do not acknowledge that they were wrong, but move on to a harder position. So, first, we can somehow be in the single market but with no strings attached. That’s proved wrong. So it will be a trade deal. Now that that is looking increasingly difficult they move to saying that no deal would be perfectly fine. And, in any case, it’s all the EU’s fault and ‘just goes to prove’ that we are right to leave.
There’s no way out of this kind of thinking. It is completely circular and unfalsifiable. There is no imaginable event that could shake it. Suppose the UK gets a great deal? It proves we were right to leave! Suppose we don’t? It proves we were right to leave!
That is incredibly dangerous because it is beginning to look as if the government is prepared to walk out of the EU with no deal; and even that it might be prepared to renege on its existing commitments. If that happened, it would make Britain virtually a pariah state, untrusted by other countries and unable to make agreements with them in the future. Even more dangerous, any ‘no deal’ scenario would be likely to provoke a nationalist frenzy in which internal ‘fifth columnists’ would be identified and hunted down as traitors.
In the meantime, despite their victory, they seem to be as angry as ever they were, and that anger is directed at remainers – partly for lacking the true faith but also, I suspect, from a deep but unacknowledged fear that they have made a terrible mistake. As they push harder and harder towards a mirage, with worse and worse consequences, they will get angrier and angrier with those of us who remind them of the insanity of what they are doing.
Here we are moving into the middle of the 21st century and we're still guessing what election outcomes might be. It shouldn't really be possible that valid cases can be made for the Lib Dems winning 6, 16, and 26 seats. I know Ashcroft's constituency polling was seen as a failed experiment, but surely we need to learn from it rather than abandoning the idea altogether. For example, rather than small samples in lots of seats, large samples in, say, 4 or 5 seats would give very valuable data. Anecdote is useful but can't be trusted.
I would have thought most polling organisations have enough registered people to do weighted Regional polling. At least, that would be an improvement on the bloody subsets.
In my view the biggest danger for the EU internally comes from 5* in Italy next year, not FN in France this year
I think that's absolutely right.
It will be interesting to see if the right consolidates in Italy. People forget how close the 2013 election was in Italy, with Forza Italia only a fraction behind the DP. (And 5* not much behind Forza.)
Yes, add in the Northern League too and there is a clear majority for the right. Unlike FN 5* also has no far right links and is closer to Vote Leave than UKIP, indeed Beppe Grillo is more Boris Johnson than Marine Le Pen while Renzi already lost the Italian referendum last year but is likely to lead the centre left again
As always, an excellent and well written thread header from Ms Cyclefree. My only comment being that Mme Le Pen has gotten to (say) 38% in the second round by ditching many of the historic policies of the FN, and going all Kirchner on us. I suspect if you surveyed the people in the vast majority of developed countries and asked questions like: do you think the government policies should look to protect and nurture national businesses? do think firms outsource too much to low cost countries? etc., then you'd see a similar level of support everywhere. Heck, Donald Trump just got elected on a Kirchner-esque platform.
The real tragedy of European politics is that the bulk of Eurosceptics are unsuitable for office. Geert Wilders is a total nut job. Berlusconi makes Fillon look like a model of probity. And Mme Le Pen represents a party that said as recently as 2009 that the Holocaust was a mere "detail" of history.
Allowing herself to be wound-up by a washed-out, powerless drunk from Luxembourg who will have almost no role in the negotiations does not augur well for the times when our PM has to meet serious and powerful players from the EU. Toy throwing and baseless accusations might win elections, but they rarely deliver good agreements.
In that case they won't be as stupid as Juncker and in response T. May will be as constructive as she has generally been except when briefed against so blatantly as was the case last week.
They will have observed that Mrs May is extremely thin-skinned, it is true. Not sure how that helps us get a good deal, but hopefully once the election is out of the way she will drop the White Cliffs of Dover shtick and become a grown-up.
You're being unfair. the great bulk of what she has said both inside and outside the H/C has been moderate, constructive and sensible. The reaction to Juncker [ backed by German source I believe] was less tempered but I suspect a lot of this was to do with the GE. She clearly wants a deal as do many EU governments. I also think even in the Commission there is desire for a deal. therefore on balance I expect there will be a deal. Of course there will be pain - probably for both sides - and many will be left unsatisfied on all sides. That is the nature of these things.
Allowing herself to be wound-up by a washed-out, powerless drunk from Luxembourg who will have almost no role in the negotiations does not augur well for the times when our PM has to meet serious and powerful players from the EU. Toy throwing and baseless accusations might win elections, but they rarely deliver good agreements.
In that case they won't be as stupid as Juncker and in response T. May will be as constructive as she has generally been except when briefed against so blatantly as was the case last week.
They will have observed that Mrs May is extremely thin-skinned, it is true. Not sure how that helps us get a good deal, but hopefully once the election is out of the way she will drop the White Cliffs of Dover shtick and become a grown-up.
They will have observed that she doesn't suffer people acting like dickheads gladly.
Good thread Cyclefree - it looks like Barnier/Tusk/Davis will be playing good cop while May will be bad cop if Juncker/Selmayr gets out of his box again.
FPT, the reason why Labour "lost" relatively few constituencies in the County elections is because they have few seats left there, and in some places, like Wales or Durham, there are big votes for Independents.
However, the voting patterns in the Midlands and Lancashire suggest that Labour would lose plenty of seats in places like Stoke and the West Midlands, and West Yorkshire.
Allowing herself to be wound-up by a washed-out, powerless drunk from Luxembourg who will have almost no role in the negotiations does not augur well for the times when our PM has to meet serious and powerful players from the EU. Toy throwing and baseless accusations might win elections, but they rarely deliver good agreements.
If he is powerless, why have the grown-ups in the organisation not forced him quietly out of office years ago? There is nothing big or clever about having an embarrassment like that as effectively a head of state.
Allowing herself to be wound-up by a washed-out, powerless drunk from Luxembourg who will have almost no role in the negotiations does not augur well for the times when our PM has to meet serious and powerful players from the EU. Toy throwing and baseless accusations might win elections, but they rarely deliver good agreements.
In that case they won't be as stupid as Juncker and in response T. May will be as constructive as she has generally been except when briefed against so blatantly as was the case last week.
They will have observed that Mrs May is extremely thin-skinned, it is true. Not sure how that helps us get a good deal, but hopefully once the election is out of the way she will drop the White Cliffs of Dover shtick and become a grown-up.
They will have observed that she doesn't suffer people acting like dickheads gladly.
She does not have to pander to the morons about Freedom of Movement. Look at her record as Home Secretary regarding NON-EU immigration. She let a million in.
In the abstract, it's very interesting, really, that organisations and nations can have such definite 'personalities' as to give rise to personality clashes like this.
As always, an excellent and well written thread header from Ms Cyclefree. My only comment being that Mme Le Pen has gotten to (say) 38% in the second round by ditching many of the historic policies of the FN, and going all Kirchner on us. I suspect if you surveyed the people in the vast majority of developed countries and asked questions like: do you think the government policies should look to protect and nurture national businesses? do think firms outsource too much to low cost countries? etc., then you'd see a similar level of support everywhere. Heck, Donald Trump just got elected on a Kirchner-esque platform.
The real tragedy of European politics is that the bulk of Eurosceptics are unsuitable for office. Geert Wilders is a total nut job. Berlusconi makes Fillon look like a model of probity. And Mme Le Pen represents a party that said as recently as 2009 that the Holocaust was a mere "detail" of history.
If they were fit for office, they would be portrayed as unfit anyway.
On a related note, John Harris makes an astute observation about Leavers in his column in the Guardian of a couple of days ago. If the motivation for Remainers was largely continuity, Leavers were after disruption to the status quo. But there is no evidence that they actually accept the disruption they voted for.
No
If there is disruption, Leavers will not accept that it was a result of their vote.
This is an interesting article on Brexit thinking, which could have been written by exclusively reading SeanT over the past year
In the meantime, despite their victory, they seem to be as angry as ever they were, and that anger is directed at remainers – partly for lacking the true faith but also, I suspect, from a deep but unacknowledged fear that they have made a terrible mistake. As they push harder and harder towards a mirage, with worse and worse consequences, they will get angrier and angrier with those of us who remind them of the insanity of what they are doing.
I think the last sentence is the problem for some on the remain side - an unquestionable assumption that Brexit is insanity.
There are clear, substantial risks from Brexit. But I cannot share this view that it will certainly be a disaster. The reality is, as always, more nuanced and balanced. There could be terrible consequences to Brexit, but, conversely, there could also be significant upsides.
As a remain voter, I thought on balance the advantages of being inside the club outweighed the downsides of being out of it. But I can't bring myself to say that leaving will most certainly be cataclysmic. I think the UK can cope on its own - the specific consequences, and whether in the long term it will have been a good or bad decision to leave - are yet to reveal themselves.
As always, an excellent and well written thread header from Ms Cyclefree. My only comment being that Mme Le Pen has gotten to (say) 38% in the second round by ditching many of the historic policies of the FN, and going all Kirchner on us. I suspect if you surveyed the people in the vast majority of developed countries and asked questions like: do you think the government policies should look to protect and nurture national businesses? do think firms outsource too much to low cost countries? etc., then you'd see a similar level of support everywhere. Heck, Donald Trump just got elected on a Kirchner-esque platform.
The real tragedy of European politics is that the bulk of Eurosceptics are unsuitable for office. Geert Wilders is a total nut job. Berlusconi makes Fillon look like a model of probity. And Mme Le Pen represents a party that said as recently as 2009 that the Holocaust was a mere "detail" of history.
If they were fit for office, they would be portrayed as unfit anyway.
I think we're all grown up enough to make our own judgements.
An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).
However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.
Allowing herself to be wound-up by a washed-out, powerless drunk from Luxembourg who will have almost no role in the negotiations does not augur well for the times when our PM has to meet serious and powerful players from the EU. Toy throwing and baseless accusations might win elections, but they rarely deliver good agreements.
In that case they won't be as stupid as Juncker and in response T. May will be as constructive as she has generally been except when briefed against so blatantly as was the case last week.
They will have observed that Mrs May is extremely thin-skinned, it is true. Not sure how that helps us get a good deal, but hopefully once the election is out of the way she will drop the White Cliffs of Dover shtick and become a grown-up.
You're being unfair. the great bulk of what she has said both inside and outside the H/C has been moderate, constructive and sensible. The reaction to Juncker [ backed by German source I believe] was less tempered but I suspect a lot of this was to do with the GE. She clearly wants a deal as do many EU governments. I also think even in the Commission there is desire for a deal. therefore on balance I expect there will be a deal. Of course there will be pain - probably for both sides - and many will be left unsatisfied on all sides. That is the nature of these things.
I am sure it is all for the election. I can't imagine she genuinely believes half the stuff she has said. And I agree that a deal will be done. It will not be as good as the one we have now, but it will be a lot better than walking away. However, for it to happen May does have to find the political courage to face bad headlines from the anti-European right wing press. This is something she has not been prepared to do up to now - either as a cabinet minister or as Prime Minister.
Knock a 2-3 points off labour and give it to the lib dems and might be about right. If labour actually 2-3 points higher, corbyn / mcmao double act ain't going anywhere.
Agree but also knock two or three points off the Conservative share.
Even if you knock the 2-3 points off for the Tories, you might have to add them back on for that half of the Kipper vote that won't have a candidate to vote for other than the Tory.
Thread title reminds me of when Harman railed against women being called 'love'. Did make me wonder if she'd ever heard of Yorkshire.
On the thread itself, surely this is because ideological belief in the EU is a priori? They have a belief ('more Europe' = better), and stick to it. It's not reasoned. If it were, they'd examine the evidence and reach a conclusion as per science. But because it's faith, ideology, over sceptical reason, they already know the answer.
When you already know the truth, dissent is heresy.
Mr. Urquhart, same happened to me, fortunately I'd copied the above.
An interesting phenomenon is religious style belief in various "creeds", mirroring the decline in traditional religion.
For example, try having an evidence based discussion of the merits of various types of recycling. Pointing out the trees that paper are made from are farmed, and that unless you are quite careful, you end up spending far more energy and chemicals on making recycled paper, gets you labeled as a "bad" person.
On a related note, John Harris makes an astute observation about Leavers in his column in the Guardian of a couple of days ago. If the motivation for Remainers was largely continuity, Leavers were after disruption to the status quo. But there is no evidence that they actually accept the disruption they voted for.
No
If there is disruption, Leavers will not accept that it was a result of their vote.
This is an interesting article on Brexit thinking, which could have been written by exclusively reading SeanT over the past year
That is neither here nor there now: the referendum was lost. What is very much still relevant is that the same hermetically-sealed, evidence-proof and argument-proof logic now drives government policy. And it drives it in one direction only: towards a more and more calamitous form of Brexit. Each time reality demolishes one of their claims (the most ubiquitous, perhaps, and the most absurd, certainly, being that German car makers would ensure a good deal in double quick time) the Brexiters do not acknowledge that they were wrong, but move on to a harder position. So, first, we can somehow be in the single market but with no strings attached. That’s proved wrong. So it will be a trade deal. Now that that is looking increasingly difficult they move to saying that no deal would be perfectly fine. And, in any case, it’s all the EU’s fault and ‘just goes to prove’ that we are right to leave.
There's a lot of truth in that. During the referendum campaign 'WTO membership' was roundly treated by Leavers as a kind of thought experiment - theoretically possible but existing only in the nightmare realms of Remain propaganda; now we have prominent Leavers on here proclaiming that the WTO thing would be fine and dandy. I can't think of any manifestation of Brexit that Leavers wouldn't tug their forelocks to.
An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).
However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.
Yes, probably. Only fools think indulging in this sort of thing, if it is more than just posturing and electioneering, is bad for only one side, even if it impacts on the sides unevenly.
In a way, Britain has behaved like a woman who fakes psychotic madness when menaced by a groping perv - the perv thinks, Jesus, probably not worth it, she might stab me to death.
That's a very...vivid metaphor.
It's a well known maneuver. Men can do it too, with muggers. I've used it myself, unwittingly. I was once threatened with a knife by a mugger on Charing Cross Road. I instinctively reacted (being very very drunk (and possibly high on E)) with laughter and a weird calm, saying to him, Oh come on, you're not really gonna knife me, are you, chill out, man, etc
He was so perplexed he looked at the knife. Then laughed. And shook my hand, and we swapped jokes, and he walked away. True story.
I didn't do it deliberately I was just stoned. But reacting to a potential predator with very unexpected behaviour is absolutely Darwinian.
For some reason I had a flash of Johnny Depp as Hunter S Thompson.....
That washed-out, powerless drunk from Luxembourg seems to be taking control of all the banks in Europe, though, and intends to have oversight over non EU banks too. So perhaps he is not so washed-out.
There is a pattern where agreements with the EU have been made - and at the last minute are torn up and fresh demands are made by Brussels. I think the efforts to bail out some Italian banks show this, the Italian government has been treated with contempt.
' If the headline figures are not miserable enough for Labour, their apparent capitulation in their own key marginals continues to look like a real prospect. On this poll the Conservatives lead in such places by 19-points – slightly out performing their national share – putting them on the highest figure yet we’ve seen in these crucial constituencies. This would imply wipe-out for Labour, losing to the Tories by such a margin according to these numbers that Theresa May would return to Downing Street armed with an overall majority of at least 132 seats. '
The question, for me, is UNS broken for this election? There have been a number of polls where the data has suggested that the Tories are doing (as above) where they need to. If so, we are going to see a very efficient swing.
Allowing herself to be wound-up by a washed-out, powerless drunk from Luxembourg who will have almost no role in the negotiations does not augur well for the times when our PM has to meet serious and powerful players from the EU. Toy throwing and baseless accusations might win elections, but they rarely deliver good agreements.
Perhaps someone in the EU could take Juncker to one side and inform him he is powerless?
The shock might kill him. Or his laughing fit.
He gets to run the Commission, which does as it is told by the Council of Ministers. Lots of nice lunches with important people though.
How very sophisticated and blase that summary sounds. I doubt it is true: he seems to get lots of air time and an important title. I think this is another example of Remainer snobbery: the little people might think that the President of the EC was an important position, just as they might think that accession negotiations were about negotiating accession, but the elite knows better.
And the less important he in reality is, the greater the puzzlement that he has not been forcibly retired by whoever is important enough to remove him. It is only the black swan event of Trump which saves him from being the most embarrassing arsehole currently on the world stage.
An excellent thread header (ie I agree with almost all of it).
However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.
There is a school of thought that the Juncker leak was all about letting German voters know just how poorly prepared the British are so that when talks do break down German voters will not blame Merkel or the EU generally.
The way you talk about the EU, more fanatically than any senior EU official or head of government I have ever seen, is astonishing. Guy Verhofstadt is a passionate and vocal supporter of the EU project, he can be pretty rude toward those who do not share his vision, but even he does not seem as extreme as you.
If I'm fanatical about anything, it is that for the UK to leave the EU is a grand folly. It's the nature of our relationship with Europe that I care about, more than the EU as such. I do not think the EU is by any means perfect but its imperfections are our problem whether in or out. As long as the EU exists, it will never be in the interests of Britain to be on the outside looking in.
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New ICM - Sun on Sunday
Con 46% (-1 on last Sunday)
Lab 28% (nc)
LD 10% (+1)
Green 4% (nc)
UKIP 8% (nc)
SNP 4% (mc)
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2017_sunonsunday_campaign_poll2_may7.pdf
McDonnell is an anarchist pretending to be a politician
On the thread itself, surely this is because ideological belief in the EU is a priori? They have a belief ('more Europe' = better), and stick to it. It's not reasoned. If it were, they'd examine the evidence and reach a conclusion as per science. But because it's faith, ideology, over sceptical reason, they already know the answer.
When you already know the truth, dissent is heresy.
Mr. Urquhart, same happened to me, fortunately I'd copied the above.
Indeed.
It is hard to argue with the ultimate conclusion of this piece:
Time for BOTH to say less in public and think more.
Has our governments approach been perfect? Of course not. Has the EU's position been as logical and consistent as some of its defenders claim? Of course not. Is there value in deciding which one is playing it worse? Maybe, maybe not. Presently both are presenting as the only rational ones, when neither is being wholly rational, which to some extent is to be expected in a political issue, but one hopes it will sort itself out.
That the EU ignored problems before and still might is a serious worry, because a strong EU is fine with me if that is what the people in it want, which they do, and making encouraging noises then getting complacent and then uppity about anyone expressing dissatisfaction has been a real issue.
When faced with two extreme positions - evil Brussells vs idiotic Brits - the answer is not always directly in the middle, but it is highly unlikely to be close to either extreme position. Whether one agrees with the conclusions, or even sometimes the underlying premises, you can always say Cyclefree pieces make you think at least.
P.S 'Lublin'?
Interestingly the vanilla bug strikes even if you are posting from the main site.
There is a third way, which is to accept those views at face value. Brexit means Brexit, and if we don't like what that means, it's our own fault. It's not the EU's job to save us from ourselves if we are determined to indulge our illusions.
As for the lessons of Brexit, the Commission has put forward a range of options for the path forwards for the EU, including a 'nothing but the single market' approach. If the UK government had taken a different stance since the referendum, we might even have had a voice in the debate.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/white_paper_on_the_future_of_europe_en.pdf
Hopefully, when it gets down to the serious negotiations, everyone will calm down a little, keep private things private and understand that they right way forward is a mutually beneficial deal.
Her main platform is calling for reforms of how the NHS deals with negligence claims, spending billions on lawyers and unnecessary compensation which should be going into patient care.
An inspiring story of someone who has fought injustice for decades, sadly she doesn't have too long left.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4480714/Cancer-sufferer-standing-against-Jeremy-Corbyn.html
https://www.icmunlimited.com/polls/
This interests me in terms of how we define "better off". It could mean less tax, it might mean shorter waiting lists, higher interest rates, more jobs etc etc. Everybody has their own idea of what it means, it is impossible that everybody is "better off".
Now perhaps they keep asking the same people or maybe it does represent what's happening.
Clearly ICM are happy enough with their results to give it emphasis.
Has anyone seen the Con held seats < 10% ?
Warning: sample size.
Heck, even Tusk among others have chided the EU approach and the organisation itself more than you, for lack of discretion for one thing, and because he and others know the EU has issues to deal with, challenges to face. And if the President of the European Council is coming across as more realistic and reasonable even though he is definitely fighting for the best of the EU and will be firm with us, don't you think your stance is unrealistic?
No, don't answer that, I know what you will say. The EU is the only one that is right about everything and it is impossible for the UK to be right about anything, no matter how small a point that may be, and it is impossible for the EU to make a misstep even though they are human beings too.
The way you talk about the EU, more fanatically than any senior EU official or head of government I have ever seen, is astonishing. Guy Verhofstadt is a passionate and vocal supporter of the EU project, he can be pretty rude toward those who do not share his vision, but even he does not seem as extreme as you.
The real tragedy of European politics is that the bulk of Eurosceptics are unsuitable for office. Geert Wilders is a total nut job. Berlusconi makes Fillon look like a model of probity. And Mme Le Pen represents a party that said as recently as 2009 that the Holocaust was a mere "detail" of history.
The shock might kill him. Or his laughing fit.
I don't know why I still bother with the Sunday papers. No insights there these days.
On a related note, John Harris makes an astute observation about Leavers in his column in the Guardian of a couple of days ago. If the motivation for Remainers was largely continuity, Leavers were after disruption to the status quo. But there is no evidence that they actually accept the disruption they voted for.
May 7th poll - Page 8
Con 44% Lab 32%
April 28th poll
Con 48% Lab 29%
21st - 24th April fieldwork poll:
Con 40% Lab 29%
So the average is
Con 44% Lab 30%
Which is healthy enough
The central tenet of the book is that, to have achieved the successes we have to date, we have behaved in certain ways on certain assumptions and that our successes have continuously reinforced these.
Some of these assumptions have become so accepted that they are invisible to us. And while we might seek to learn, improve and change in areas we know we must, the behaviours required to make such change run counter to these invisible assumptions and so our efforts to improve founder (hence why people who really want to lose weight fail, or a new promoted manager knows she must delegate now, but fails to do so successfully).
The EU's invisible assumptions are the 4 Freedoms. They are unquestionable to the EU true believers because they are now invisible, dogma rather than assumptions.
As for negotiating style, I agree in general with you. But the leak from Juncker and Selmayr was so egregious that it required a warning shot. While May's response was shocking, perhaps that is precisely what was needed - a short, sharp shock. It seems to have had a salutary effect on Tusk and Merkel. Let's hope that it has righted the ship, and that both sides will now concentrate on the constructive. I think that requires Barnier keeping Juncker and Selmayr away from the British team.
It will be interesting to see if the right consolidates in Italy. People forget how close the 2013 election was in Italy, with Forza Italia only a fraction behind the DP. (And 5* not much behind Forza.)
Overall: Con 47%, Lab 28%.
Household Income > £60000 [ the highest band given ]: Con 43%, Lab 30%
In the band below [ £40k - £60k ], the split is: Con 57%, Lab 20%
As the Conservatives defended their marginals very well in 2015 I wouldn't expect a large swing in them this time.
If there is disruption, Leavers will not accept that it was a result of their vote.
This is an interesting article on Brexit thinking, which could have been written by exclusively reading SeanT over the past year
That is neither here nor there now: the referendum was lost. What is very much still relevant is that the same hermetically-sealed, evidence-proof and argument-proof logic now drives government policy. And it drives it in one direction only: towards a more and more calamitous form of Brexit. Each time reality demolishes one of their claims (the most ubiquitous, perhaps, and the most absurd, certainly, being that German car makers would ensure a good deal in double quick time) the Brexiters do not acknowledge that they were wrong, but move on to a harder position. So, first, we can somehow be in the single market but with no strings attached. That’s proved wrong. So it will be a trade deal. Now that that is looking increasingly difficult they move to saying that no deal would be perfectly fine. And, in any case, it’s all the EU’s fault and ‘just goes to prove’ that we are right to leave.
There’s no way out of this kind of thinking. It is completely circular and unfalsifiable. There is no imaginable event that could shake it. Suppose the UK gets a great deal? It proves we were right to leave! Suppose we don’t? It proves we were right to leave!
That is incredibly dangerous because it is beginning to look as if the government is prepared to walk out of the EU with no deal; and even that it might be prepared to renege on its existing commitments. If that happened, it would make Britain virtually a pariah state, untrusted by other countries and unable to make agreements with them in the future. Even more dangerous, any ‘no deal’ scenario would be likely to provoke a nationalist frenzy in which internal ‘fifth columnists’ would be identified and hunted down as traitors.
In the meantime, despite their victory, they seem to be as angry as ever they were, and that anger is directed at remainers – partly for lacking the true faith but also, I suspect, from a deep but unacknowledged fear that they have made a terrible mistake. As they push harder and harder towards a mirage, with worse and worse consequences, they will get angrier and angrier with those of us who remind them of the insanity of what they are doing.
http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/brexiter-illogic-and-where-it-could.html?m=1
There is no way this would pass a GOP congress.
Warning: sample size
However, the voting patterns in the Midlands and Lancashire suggest that Labour would lose plenty of seats in places like Stoke and the West Midlands, and West Yorkshire.
Date looks odd to me though, 6th April just an error from Guadeloupe stationers ?
https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/861193711392346112
Looks like a ward count to me.
In the abstract, it's very interesting, really, that organisations and nations can have such definite 'personalities' as to give rise to personality clashes like this.
Good afternoon, everyone.
There are clear, substantial risks from Brexit. But I cannot share this view that it will certainly be a disaster. The reality is, as always, more nuanced and balanced. There could be terrible consequences to Brexit, but, conversely, there could also be significant upsides.
As a remain voter, I thought on balance the advantages of being inside the club outweighed the downsides of being out of it. But I can't bring myself to say that leaving will most certainly be cataclysmic. I think the UK can cope on its own - the specific consequences, and whether in the long term it will have been a good or bad decision to leave - are yet to reveal themselves.
All this is showing is that the swing in Conservative marginals is likely to be below average.
As the battleground is unlikely to be in Conservative marginals that's not going to have any practical effect.
However, the EU appear to have given up on Britain as a constructive partner for the time being (to be fair, they have had ample cause to do so), so they feel free to indulge their prejudices. This is bad news for the EU and bad news for Britain.
Even if you knock the 2-3 points off for the Tories, you might have to add them back on for that half of the Kipper vote that won't have a candidate to vote for other than the Tory.
For example, try having an evidence based discussion of the merits of various types of recycling. Pointing out the trees that paper are made from are farmed, and that unless you are quite careful, you end up spending far more energy and chemicals on making recycled paper, gets you labeled as a "bad" person.
And I warned about sample size in every post !
An excellent article Ms Cyclefree. Thoughtful as always.
Daddy Le Pen says daughter is "not fit for presidency"
There is a pattern where agreements with the EU have been made - and at the last minute are torn up and fresh demands are made by Brussels. I think the efforts to bail out some Italian banks show this, the Italian government has been treated with contempt.
And the less important he in reality is, the greater the puzzlement that he has not been forcibly retired by whoever is important enough to remove him. It is only the black swan event of Trump which saves him from being the most embarrassing arsehole currently on the world stage.