Apologies if everyone is aware of this already, but the details of Sunday's ICM poll are now up on their website. I mention this not in order to say anything about the tables themselves, but for the sake of the following admission:
"In a poll conducted for the Sun on Sunday, a slight fightback is recorded for Labour, but not to the extent identified in a couple of other polls. Indeed, this lower Conservative lead is a largely based on ICM’s methodological adjustment, which returned 2-points to Labour directly from the Tories as part of the Partial Refuser adjustment. Without that, it would have been “as you were”."
i.e. more evidence that they're (probably all) tweaking their assumptions and massaging the figures on an ongoing basis as this campaign goes along, and therefore, over time, the polls - even when coming from the same company - are not necessarily directly comparable with one another.
Tentative predictions:
1. By the end of the election campaign, all the companies will have herded together and will be reporting roughly the same figures (again.) That's probably just me being the most dreadful old cynic, but we'll see... 2. Consequently, they'll all be wrong by roughly the same margin, most likely counting Labour's VI too high, and the Conservatives' and the Liberal Democrats' too low.
I always suspect that the mid campaign wobble in the polls that always seems to appear mid election campaign is a manufactured one. I don't believe it actually happens, it just makes the reporting of the election more interesting. Even in 1997, one poll showed the Tories doing significantly better than was the case and Labour not doing quite as well as the outcome. As you say it is easy to induce a methodological adjustment and create a talking point.
Bear in mind the old adage about prominence on the media helping or hindering polling figures. Certainly if one thing has struck me over the last week and a bit its that Corbyn is getting a fair bit of coverage with policy announcements and the Conservatives are relatively low key.
Still though, I can't see a mega majority yet and stick broadly to 35 seat majority as good nights work. Everything I think is wholly dependent on Labour turnout. Mega polling figures for the Conservatives after a point possibly won't stack up in the right places.
Yeah, but no, but yeah... Confused, tune in tomorrow for the latest Indy Ref policy change.
They are all over the place. We're used to seeing the SNP consistent and disciplined. This is uncharacteristic.
Absolutely. As I said in an earlier post, going to be interesting to how some SNP MPs try to get around the ban on them criticising the Leadership as they try to rebrand themselves as 'constituency' MPs first and party second at the last minute. We have already seen a couple of them rushing to get their picture taken signing that pledge against the Commons Fisheries Policy.
Yeah, but no, but yeah... Confused, tune in tomorrow for the latest Indy Ref policy change.
They are all over the place. We're used to seeing the SNP consistent and disciplined. This is uncharacteristic.
The culmination of a sequence of attempted strategies:
1. The election is all about Scotland being brutally wrenched from the EU against its will! Polls show that's a dud. 2. Conservatives starting to do worryingly well. Scream "TORIES!!!!" Polls show that no longer works. 3. Attempt to neutralise Conservatives by claiming the election is nothing to do with independence, ergo no need for pro-Union voters to back pro-Union parties. Voters see through a transparent falsehood. That doesn't work either. 4. If all else fails, return to plan A and bang on about separatism. This is a core vote strategy from a party on the defensive.
Fortunately for the SNP their core vote is huge and they'll hold most of their seats, but I think they can wave a fair handful of MPs goodbye, along with conceding a majority of the popular vote to the Unionist parties. That should be enough for the Prime Minister to tell the Scottish Government to get another Holyrood majority for an independence manifesto in 2021, before a new vote will be conceded.
That's independence shoved back in its box for another four years. After that, we shall see.
"During a visit to Dreams Daycare nursery in Insch on Monday, the first minister said: "The issue at the heart of this election is, whether you support independence or oppose independence, surely that decision should be taken by people in Scotland, by the Scottish people and the Scottish Parliament, and not by a Tory government at Westminster".
"Ms Sturgeon, ***who was campaigning alongside Alex Salmond,*** highlighted the "stark contrast" between her party's investment in childcare and the prime minister's cuts to child tax credits."
Ah, so the General Election IS about independence after all - contrary to the denials from only a week ago...
"The general election is not about deciding if Scotland should be independent or not, the First Minister has said.
"Scots will go to the polls on June 8 in a snap vote called by the Prime Minister last week.
"The election comes shortly after Sturgeon called for a second independence referendum after Downing Street rejected her plans to keep Scotland inside the European single market even if the rest of the UK left.
"The SNP leader warned Scottish voters who back the Conservatives in June's election will enable Theresa May to carry out "deeper cuts" on the country's public services.
"Sturgeon made the comments in an interview on STV's Scotland Tonight programme.
She said the forthcoming vote "is not deciding whether or not Scotland is independent" and added it would be for a subsequent debate about the country's future where she "would have to set out the process for resecuring our future with Europe."
Well, well, who'd-a-thunk it?
Conclusions:
1. Sturgeon lied through her teeth 2. Salmond got back from the Evil Wastemonster to issue fresh instructions 3. The organ grinder is now ensuring that the monkey bangs the cymbals to the correct tune
Err she is saying two different things.
General election is not about whether Scotland should be independent or not. General election about right to hold IndyRef.
She is framing this about right to choose to make it safe for non Indy supporting people tovoted SNP.
"What tools do we use to keep large-scale car manufacturers in the UK if we crash out of the EU with no deal? Whatever it is we will need to repeat the trick across a large number of sectors in which complex European supply chains and large-scale European exports are a necessity. " - you expect the EU to put pressure to move jobs to the EU. But they have been doing that all along - see Ford in Southampton.
Ford Europe take us all for fools
their constant bleating about they might have to leave the UK post Brexit more or less ignores the fact that de facto they already have.
In the 70s when we joined Ford was the UK's largest car manufacturer with 4 car assembly plants knocking out about 500000 cars and vans
today nothing. all the production has been transferred to Europe to make plants in Germany and Spain more profitable.
What happens at that big factory in Halewood, Liverpool then? Are all those cars parked outside it just cardboard cut-outs? It has a big "FORD" logo stuck on it....
Clickbait from Daisley - FWIW SNP are still c.45% - SCON & SLAB have just swopped 2nd & 3rd place %s - SCON hope to pick up a clutch of seats as they hope their vote is better concentrated ! - The SNP seem set for a good result !!
It is slightly mystifying, this whole Brexit Dinner Leak thingy.
Y
Juncker's leaking of the dinner is the equivalent of Angelina briefing against Brad to the paps.
I've nright.
Glad you are not negotiating on behalf of UK plc
Willy-waving is not a negotiating strategy. UK plc wants a deal, not a cliff-edge Brexit.
The first negotiation party to step across the line into the other party's ZOPA on average loses about 95% of the value in the ZOPA and - far worse - may often be forced into a deal that they would have rejected before negotiations started. That is why it is essential for May not to give too many concessions too early. She should state our preferred position (no payments, no ECJ, out of single market and customs area), stick to it, and let the EU offer the first suggestions as to what relationship they'd accept on those terms.
Varoufakis is very interesting on negotiating with the EU. Basically he says they are lying, devious bastards, never trust them, play hardball, ignore their promises, don't give an inch unless you absolutely have to - hopefully this is exactly what TMay is doing
I'll introduce you to my friend at the IMF who was on the team in Greece. She says Varoufakis was utterly delusional, would rail against international capitalism for 20 minutes mid meeting, and would spend all the time between meetings trying to undo whatever had been agreed during the meeting.
She's pretty rude about the EU too, with the exception of the further Dutch finance minister, but her fundamental view of Varoufakis is that he would have been happy to see Greece burn if it increased the chance of true socialism rising from the ashes.
Looking at how well Varoufakis's negotiations went, I would suggest that we study it deeply and then do the exact opposite.
He is a very ideological man, deeply wedded to a set of beliefs is socialism that the rest of the would quietly forgoing about after the fall of communism.
Mrs May, for all her faults, of which there are many is not wedded to much to any ideology especially not socialism. And her negotiation will be a pragmatic 'this for that' styel. I would have preferred a much bolder, abolish all tariffs! approach, but Mays will still work out OK, if not spectacular.
Getting it right involves the UK accepting the EU has the whip hand and that the focus should be on persuading them that it in their interests to give us a good deal, even if this falls short of what we have now trade-wise. It will mean us making many more concessions than them; and that's the big problem May has.
Glad you are not negotiating on behalf of UK plc
Willy-waving is not a negotiating strategy. UK plc wants a deal, not a cliff-edge Brexit.
It is not willy-waving to know what you want and stick to it - at very least for a while in an 18-month negotiation. If you second-guess yourself into concessions from the outset you will be well and truly screwed.
The first negotiation party to step across the line into the other party's ZOPA on average loses about 95% of the value in the ZOPA and - far worse - may often be forced into a deal that they would have rejected before negotiations started. That is why it is essential for May not to give too many concessions too early. She should state our preferred position (no payments, no ECJ, out of single market and customs area), stick to it, and let the EU offer the first suggestions as to what relationship they'd accept on those terms.
Varoufakis is very interesting on negotiating with the EU. Basically he says they are lying, devious bastards, never trust them, play hardball, ignore their promises, don't give an inch unless you absolutely have to - hopefully this is exactly what TMay is doing
I'll introduce you to my friend at the IMF who was on the team in Greece. She says Varoufakis was utterly delusional, would rail against international capitalism for 20 minutes mid meeting, and would spend all the time between meetings trying to undo whatever had been agreed during the meeting.
She's pretty rude about the EU too, with the exception of the further Dutch finance minister, but her fundamental view of Varoufakis is that he would have been happy to see Greece burn if it increased the chance of true socialism rising from the ashes.
That doesn't mean he's wrong about the EU and how to approach them. He certainly has experience.
I'd still be more inclined to listen to someone who'd successfully managed a negotiation with the EU, such as the Canadian trade representative.
During the referendum a Ford spokesman threatened "you will have to pay thousands more for your Ford cars". Or buy a Honda, Nissan, Toyota, JLR of course.
A few myth-busters:
1) 58% of all the cars produced in the UK are not EU bound. The majority of car production is for either domestic or global consumption;
2) The average value of a British export is over £20k, while the average value of an import is £13k. We sell premium, we buy cheap;
3) The top 10 car registrations do not include a single BMW or Audi branded car. They are full of VWs, Fords, Vauxhall's etc;
4) The difference between the number of cars we manufacture and the number we register each year is 900,000. We have nearly a million vehicle net demand that we fill with imports. That doesn't include 500, 000 commercial vehicles.
5) In 2016, 87% of UK’s imports came from the EU, while only 42% of UK’s export went to the EU. Whereas the percentage of imports coming from the EU has remained consistently high over the last 20 years, the share of UK exports going to the EU has fallen sharply from a peak of 71% in 1999. This change is the result of exports to non-EU countries growing much faster than exports to EU countries.
6) 80% of engine production has been outsourced to the EU as well.
7) This country still produces fewer vehicles than it did pre-EU, in spite of a massive spike in the population and car usage;
Clickbait from Daisley - FWIW SNP are still c.45% - SCON & SLAB have just swopped 2nd & 3rd place %s - SCON hope to pick up a clutch of seats as they hope their vote is better concentrated ! - The SNP seem set for a good result !!
I have no doubt they will have a good result but depending on their loses and whether there is a majority Union vote, they are not going to be in the permanent honeymoon they have enjoyed to date
It is slightly mystifying, this whole Brexit Dinner Leak thingy.
You don't have to answer this because it's a personal question, but am I correct in thinking you have never been divorced? They (and we) are behaving like a divorced couple: both sides are prepared to act reasonably (by their own definitions of "reasonably"), find the other person's stance incomprehensible, and are trying for everything they can get, convinced that the other person cannot survive without them.
Juncker's leaking of the dinner is the equivalent of Angelina briefing against Brad to the paps.
I've never been divorced but my parents were divorced, my brother is divorced, my sister is divorced, my Dad got divorced twice, I've seen too many divorces, and I understand divorce (it's one reason I've never been married, and never will marry).
Yes your analogy is eaving a very large, complex trading bloc, and millions of livelihoods, on both sides, depend on the negotiators setting aside their personal feelings, and getting it right.
Getting it right involves the UK accepting the EU has the whip hand and that the focus should be on persuading them that it in their interests to give us a good deal, even if this falls short of what we have now trade-wise. It will mean us making many more concessions than them; and that's the big problem May has.
Glad you are not negotiating on behalf of UK plc
Willy-waving is not a negotiating strategy. UK plc wants a deal, not a cliff-edge Brexit.
It is not willy-waving to know what you want and stick to it - at very least for a while in an 18-month negotiation. If you second-guess yourself into concessions from the outset you will be well and truly screwed.
The first negotiation party to step across the line into the other party's ZOPA on average loses about 95% of the value in the ZOPA and - far worse - may often be forced into a deal that they would have rejected before negotiations started. That is why it is essential for May not to give too many concessions too early. She should state our preferred position (no payments, no ECJ, out of single market and customs area), stick to it, and let the EU offer the first suggestions as to what relationship they'd accept on those terms.
Why would the EU do that when they know we need a deal more than they do? They've read all the dealmaking books too and have been involved in a fair few negotiations. They know how to play the game.
General election is not about whether Scotland should be independent or not. General election about right to hold IndyRef.
She is framing this about right to choose to make it safe for non Indy supporting people tovoted SNP.
Sophistry, and transparent as a pane of glass.
All voters will hear is the First Minister saying its nothing to do with independence one week, all about independence the next. "Scotland's right to decide" = if you vote for us on June 8th, we will take that as a green light to demand indyref2 on June 9th, because the Scottish Parliament already voted to have one a few weeks back. So it's obviously all about independence.
People aren't that thick.
Anyway, this is a healthy development. At least the pretence that the General Election in Scotland is about any issue other than independence can now be chucked in a skip, and the catfight can resume in earnest.
It is slightly mystifying, this whole Brexit Dinner Leak thingy.
You don't have to answer this because it's a personal question, but am I correct in thinking you have never been divorced? They (and we) are behaving like a divorced couple: both sides are prepared to act reasonably (by their own definitions of "reasonably"), find the other person's stance incomprehensible, and are trying for everything they can get, convinced that the other person cannot survive without them.
Juncker's leaking of the dinner is the equivalent of Angelina briefing against Brad to the paps.
I've never been divorced but my parents were divorced, my brother is divorced, my sister is divorced, my Dad got divorced twice, I've seen too many divorces, and I understand divorce (it's one reason I've never been married, and never will marry).
Yes your analogy is eaving a very large, complex trading bloc, and millions of livelihoods, on both sides, depend on the negotiators setting aside their personal feelings, and getting it right.
Getting it right involves the UK accepting the EU has the whip hand and that the focus should be on persuading them that it in their interests to give us a good deal, even if this falls short of what we have now trade-wise. It will mean us making many more concessions than them; and that's the big problem May has.
Glad you are not negotiating on behalf of UK plc
Willy-waving is not a negotiating strategy. UK plc wants a deal, not a cliff-edge Brexit.
It is not willy-waving to know what you want and stick to it - at very least for a while in an 18-month negotiation. If you second-guess yourself into concessions from the outset you will be well and truly screwed.
The first negotiation party to step across the line into the other party's ZOPA on average loses about 95% of the value in the ZOPA and - far worse - may often be forced into a deal that they would have rejected before negotiations started. That is why it is essential for May not to give too many concessions too early. She should state our preferred position (no payments, no ECJ, out of single market and customs area), stick to it, and let the EU offer the first suggestions as to what relationship they'd accept on those terms.
Why would the EU do that when they know we need a deal more than they do? They've read all the dealmaking books too and have been involved in a fair few negotiations. They know how to play the game.
control of your own destiny, civil cohesion, laws to your own requirements for starters
We (the UK) got lots of opt-outs, we got our way in many deals, contracts, free-marketing etc, we got the City of London protected, civil cohesion seemed greater pre-June2016 as now we seem to have a Leave/Remain split and we are going to incorporate ALL of the existing EU law in UK law.
I cannot see what we have gained. We are introducing obstacles to trade, we are less cohesive and we will still have all EU law on our statute books.
Exactly so. And even the freedom to write our own laws in the future is a pretty small matter. How many issues are so unique that Britain needs to do things differently to the rest of the continent?
Imagine driving on the right was introduced by some future qualified majority vote?
It has been done elsewhere in the world, but we were big enough with enough clout to get opt-outs for this sort of thing in the past.
Yes it's very unlikely, sure. But if the EU became a true United States Of Europe, I guess it would be odd to have a couple of states (and a couple of tiddlers) driving on the "wrong" side of the road. The USA wouldn't allow California, Oregon, and Hawaii to drive on the left.
Hawaii wouldn't be an issue as there's already one outlying US territory (OK not a state) that drives on the left: the US Virgin Islands.
More cogently, most harmonization of things like highway signage etc is decided at an inter-state level, not by the federal government, for the mutual benefit and convenience of their citizens.
Interestingly, another example of inter-state cooperation, the Driver License Compact (that covers states applying points acquired in a different state to their own drivers' licenses) does not include all the states, but does include some Canadian provinces.
SouthamObserver is capitulating other people's homes, other people's jobs, other people's country. He is pretty clear that he is happy to do that because he expects to gain himself.
"What tools do we use to keep large-scale car manufacturers in the UK if we crash out of the EU with no deal? Whatever it is we will need to repeat the trick across a large number of sectors in which complex European supply chains and large-scale European exports are a necessity. " - you expect the EU to put pressure to move jobs to the EU. But they have been doing that all along - see Ford in Southampton.
Ford Europe take us all for fools
their constant bleating about they might have to leave the UK post Brexit more or less ignores the fact that de facto they already have.
In the 70s when we joined Ford was the UK's largest car manufacturer with 4 car assembly plants knocking out about 500000 cars and vans
today nothing. all the production has been transferred to Europe to make plants in Germany and Spain more profitable.
What happens at that big factory in Halewood, Liverpool then? Are all those cars parked outside it just cardboard cut-outs? It has a big "FORD" logo stuck on it....
Halewood is now a JLR plant, producing Range Rovers and Land Rovers. Ford have nothing to do with it
SouthamObserver is capitulating other people's homes, other people's jobs, other people's country. He is pretty clear that he is happy to do that because he expects to gain himself.
Clickbait from Daisley - FWIW SNP are still c.45% - SCON & SLAB have just swopped 2nd & 3rd place %s - SCON hope to pick up a clutch of seats as they hope their vote is better concentrated ! - The SNP seem set for a good result !!
I have no doubt they will have a good result but depending on their loses and whether there is a majority Union vote, they are not going to be in the permanent honeymoon they have enjoyed to date
SCON are correctly presenting themselves as the party of Unionism - SLAB & SLID aren't Unionist parties.
Clickbait from Daisley - FWIW SNP are still c.45% - SCON & SLAB have just swopped 2nd & 3rd place %s - SCON hope to pick up a clutch of seats as they hope their vote is better concentrated ! - The SNP seem set for a good result !!
I have no doubt they will have a good result but depending on their loses and whether there is a majority Union vote, they are not going to be in the permanent honeymoon they have enjoyed to date
SCON are correctly presenting themselves as the party of Unionism - SLAB & SLID aren't Unionist parties.
It is slightly mystifying, this whole Brexit Dinner Leak thingy.
You don't have to answer this because it's a personal question, but am I correct in thinking you have never been divorced? They (and we) are behaving like a divorced couple: both sides are prepared to act reasonably (by their own definitions of "reasonably"), find the other person's stance incomprehensible, and are trying for everything they can get, convinced that the other person cannot survive without them.
Juncker's leaking of the dinner is the equivalent of Angelina briefing against Brad to the paps.
I've never been divorced but my parents were divorced, my brother is divorced, my sister is divorced, my Dad got divorced twice, I've seen too many divorces, and I understand divorce (it's one reason I've never been married, and never will marry).
Yes your analogy is eaving a very large, complex trading bloc, and millions of livelihoods, on both sides, depend on the negotiators setting aside their personal feelings, and getting it right.
Getting it right involves the UK accepting the EU has the whip hand and that the focus should be on persuading them that it in their interests to give us a good deal, even if this falls short of what we have now trade-wise. It will mean us making many more concessions than them; and that's the big problem May has.
Glad you are not negotiating on behalf of UK plc
Willy-waving is not a negotiating strategy. UK plc wants a deal, not a cliff-edge Brexit.
It is not willy-waving to know what you want and stick to it - at very least for a while in an 18-month negotiation. If you second-guess yourself into concessions from the outset you will be well and truly screwed.
The first negotiation party to step across the line into the other party's ZOPA on average loses about 95% of the value ineferred position (no payments, no ECJ, out of single market and customs area), stick to it, and let the EU offer the first suggestions as to what relationship they'd accept on those terms.
Why would the EU do that when they know we need a deal more than they do? They've read all the dealmaking books too and have been involved in a fair few negotiations. They know how to play the game.
your negotiating style is more capitulation
My dealmaking style is get a deal. Yours is wave your willy around and then influct immense harm on yourself.
Rochdale update: Danczuk to stand as an Independent, so worth a flutter on the LDs, I'd say.
What about the Tories? At last election, they were (a) 3rd, ahead of the Lib Dems, and (b) the combined vote share of the Conservative and 2nd placed Ukip candidates was 35.8%, i.e. 10.3% adrift of Danczuk.
Rochdale is so far down the Conservative target list that it must fall outside of the top 150, but given the circumstances that you describe it can't be regarded as totally unwinnable, surely?
Rochdale update: Danczuk to stand as an Independent, so worth a flutter on the LDs, I'd say.
What about the Tories? At last election, they were (a) 3rd, ahead of the Lib Dems, and (b) the combined vote share of the Conservative and 2nd placed Ukip candidates was 35.8%, i.e. 10.3% adrift of Danczuk.
Rochdale is so far down the Conservative target list that it must fall outside of the top 150, but given the circumstances that you describe it can't be regarded as totally unwinnable, surely?
Rochdale update: Danczuk to stand as an Independent, so worth a flutter on the LDs, I'd say.
Conservatives? Ukip 2nd last time, LDs 4th & they voted Leave...
Long history of Liberalism in that part of Lancashire.
Danczuk has no personal vote, despite what he thinks, but will draw some votes from Labourites.
UKIP will die on their backside, definitely winnable for Tories, but the pensioners may forgive Tim Fallon for Nick Clegg's transgressions. 7/1 LD at present, 4/1 Tories. DYOR.
Rochdale update: Danczuk to stand as an Independent, so worth a flutter on the LDs, I'd say.
Would be wasting your money. Last year's locals;
Labour 51.9% Conservative 19.3% UK Independence Party 16.1% Liberal Democrat 8.4% Green Party 2.6% Independent 1.5% Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 0.1%
SouthamObserver is capitulating other people's homes, other people's jobs, other people's country. He is pretty clear that he is happy to do that because he expects to gain himself.
I've disagreed with Southam on much but no, that's not his style. He's a genuine patriot (albeit a lefty). I wish there were more lefties like him.
Rochdale update: Danczuk to stand as an Independent, so worth a flutter on the LDs, I'd say.
Conservatives? Ukip 2nd last time, LDs 4th & they voted Leave...
Long history of Liberalism in that part of Lancashire.
Danczuk has no personal vote, despite what he thinks, but will draw some votes from Labourites.
UKIP will die on their backside, definitely winnable for Tories, but the pensioners may forgive Tim Fallon for Nick Clegg's transgressions. 7/1 LD at present, 4/1 Tories. DYOR.
It is slightly mystifying, this whole Brexit Dinner Leak thingy.
You don't have to answer this because it's a personal question, but am I correct in thinking you have never been divorced? They (and we) are behaving like a divorced couple: both sides are prepared to act reasonably (by their own definitions of "reasonably"), find the other person's stance incomprehensible, and are trying for everything they can get, convinced that the other person cannot survive without them.
Juncker's leaking of the dinner is the equivalent of Angelina briefing against Brad to the paps.
I've never been divorced but my parents were divorced, my brother is divorced, my sister is divorced, my Dad got divorced twice, I've seen too many divorces, and I understand divorce (it's one reason I've never been married, and never will marry).
Yes your analogy is eaving a very large, complex trading bloc, and millions of livelihoods, on both sides, depend on the negotiators setting aside their personal feelings, and getting it right.
Getting it right involves the UK accepting the EU has the whip hand and than them; and that's the big problem May has.
Glad you are not negotiating on behalf of UK plc
Willy-waving is not a negotiating strategy. UK plc wants a deal, not a cliff-edge Brexit.
It is not willy-waving to know wh EU offer the first suggestions as to what relationship they'd accept on those terms.
Why would the EU do that when they know we need a deal more than they do? They've read all the dealmaking books too and have been involved in a fair few negotiations. They know how to play the game.
your negotiating style is more capitulation
My dealmaking style is get a deal. Yours is wave your willy around and then influct immense harm on yourself.
lol
its a bit cold atm to go genital waving
on the other hand I do get deals done its just I dont start from assuming I have nothing to negotiate with, and Im not afraid to walk away if the deal is no good
Rochdale update: Danczuk to stand as an Independent, so worth a flutter on the LDs, I'd say.
What about the Tories? At last election, they were (a) 3rd, ahead of the Lib Dems, and (b) the combined vote share of the Conservative and 2nd placed Ukip candidates was 35.8%, i.e. 10.3% adrift of Danczuk.
Rochdale is so far down the Conservative target list that it must fall outside of the top 150, but given the circumstances that you describe it can't be regarded as totally unwinnable, surely?
Also voted leave
60:40 in favour. Can't do the Tories' chances any harm.
Rochdale update: Danczuk to stand as an Independent, so worth a flutter on the LDs, I'd say.
What about the Tories? At last election, they were (a) 3rd, ahead of the Lib Dems, and (b) the combined vote share of the Conservative and 2nd placed Ukip candidates was 35.8%, i.e. 10.3% adrift of Danczuk.
Rochdale is so far down the Conservative target list that it must fall outside of the top 150, but given the circumstances that you describe it can't be regarded as totally unwinnable, surely?
Also voted leave
60:40 in favour. Can't do the Tories' chances any harm.
Todays carry on with the EU must have put many more Ukippers in Theresa May's column
Casper Schmeichel to sign for Man Utd after he recently changed agents to replace Real Madrid bound David De Gea
Kasper signed a 5 year deal last summer, reportedly on £100k wages. He will be very expensive for Man Utd.
However our owners are loaded, and last summer refused to sell key players at any price (Kante had a buyout clause, but more recent contracts reputedly do not). They will not sell cheaply and quite likely not at all.
It is slightly mystifying, this whole Brexit Dinner Leak thingy.
You don't have to answer this because it's a personal question, but am I correct in thinking you have never been divorced? They (and we) are behaving like a divorced couple: both sides are prepared to act reasonably (by their own definitions of "reasonably"), find the other person's stance incomprehensible, and are trying for everything they can get, convinced that the other person cannot survive without them.
Juncker's leaking of the dinner is the equivalent of Angelina briefing against Brad to the paps.
I've never been divorced but my parents were divorced, my brother is divorced, my sister is divorced, my Dad got divorced twice, I've seen too many divorces, and I understand divorce (it's one reason I've never been married, and never will marry).
Yes your analogy is eaving a very large, complex trading bloc, and millions of livelihoods, on both sides, depend on the negotiators setting aside their personal feelings, and getting it right.
Getting it right involves the UK accepting the EU has the whip hand and than them; and that's the big problem May has.
Glad you are not negotiating on behalf of UK plc
Willy-waving is not a negotiating strategy. UK plc wants a deal, not a cliff-edge Brexit.
It is not willy-waving to know wh EU offer the first suggestions as to what relationship they'd accept on those terms.
Why would the EU do that when they know we need a deal more than they do? They've read all the dealmaking books too and have been involved in a fair few negotiations. They know how to play the game.
your negotiating style is more capitulation
My dealmaking style is get a deal. Yours is wave your willy around and then influct immense harm on yourself.
lol
its a bit cold atm to go genital waving
on the other hand I do get deals done its just I dont start from assuming I have nothing to negotiate with, and Im not afraid to walk away if the deal is no good
I like to avoid dealmaking in which one of the outcome scenarios is that I will suffer significant damage - especially when the other side knows what you know.
Rochdale update: Danczuk to stand as an Independent, so worth a flutter on the LDs, I'd say.
What about the Tories? At last election, they were (a) 3rd, ahead of the Lib Dems, and (b) the combined vote share of the Conservative and 2nd placed Ukip candidates was 35.8%, i.e. 10.3% adrift of Danczuk.
Rochdale is so far down the Conservative target list that it must fall outside of the top 150, but given the circumstances that you describe it can't be regarded as totally unwinnable, surely?
Also voted leave
60:40 in favour. Can't do the Tories' chances any harm.
Update: I've accessed the census data - Rochdale is a relatively young constituency and the population is one quarter Asian-British, the vast majority of whom are Pakistani and Bangladeshi, i.e. there are lots of Muslims in Rochdale (Muslim population: 23.6%.) BES research suggests about 75% of Muslim voters support Labour.
The age and ethnic profile therefore strongly favours Labour. They'll probably hold.
Willy-waving is not a negotiating strategy. UK plc wants a deal, not a cliff-edge Brexit.
It is ept on those terms.
Varoufakis is very interesting on negotiating with the EU. Basically he says they are lying, devious bastards, never trust them, play hardball, ignore their promises, don't give an inch unless you absolutely have to - hopefully this is exactly what TMay is doing
I'll introduce you to my friend at the IMF who was on the team in Greece. She says Varoufakis was utterly delusional, would rail against international capitalism for 20 minutes mid meeting, and would spend all the time between meetings trying to undo whatever had been agreed during the meeting.
She's pretty rude about the EU too, with the exception of the further Dutch finance minister, but her fundamental view of Varoufakis is that he would have been happy to see Greece burn if it increased the chance of true socialism rising from the ashes.
That doesn't mean he's wrong about the EU and how to approach them. He certainly has experience.
I'd still be more inclined to listen to someone who'd successfully managed a negotiation with the EU, such as the Canadian trade representative.
No, you want someone who has faced an angry, bullying and antagonistic EU, which thinks it can push you around (not least because you are a member). Greece was in exactly that position. Varoufakis has been the subject of EU bullying (fair or not).
Canada did a nice polite trade deal from the other side of the Atlantic. That's entirely different to what we are about to encounter.
Greece went to the negotiations begging for tens of billions of Euros of taxpayers money from other Eurozone states. Varoufakis negotiating tactic was to say "Give us the money, because if you don't we'll crash out the Euro, and then the Eurozone will die.". He then publicly stated that Germany would never let Greece leave the Euro and that he held the whip hand.
The German finance minister then proposed Greece leave the Euro and restructure its debts (i.e. default) outside the Eurozone.
At which point Varoufakis folded.
I'm not sure what we're supposed to learn from that, other that don't make threats you don't wish to see called.
I had a few beers, and an agreeable dinner, and came back and its still the same ballaching tedium about BrExit in which nothing is being said that wasnt said a year ago, just in increasingly belicose ways. Good night!
Casper Schmeichel to sign for Man Utd after he recently changed agents to replace Real Madrid bound David De Gea
Kasper signed a 5 year deal last summer, reportedly on £100k wages. He will be very expensive for Man Utd.
However our owners are loaded, and last summer refused to sell key players at any price (Kante had a buyout clause, but more recent contracts reputedly do not). They will not sell cheaply and quite likely not at all.
Money is no object at Man Utd and he was with his Father in the stands at one of Uniteds recent home games. I think the attraction of following in his Fathers's footsteps will also be strong
Update: I've accessed the census data - Rochdale is a relatively young constituency and the population is one quarter Asian-British, the vast majority of whom are Pakistani and Bangladeshi, i.e. there are lots of Muslims in Rochdale (Muslim population: 23.6%.) BES research suggests about 75% of Muslim voters support Labour.
The age and ethnic profile therefore strongly favours Labour. They'll probably hold.
Yeah, looks like a Labour hold. I suppose one could just about envisage the Tories sneaking through if Labour's vote splits three ways Lab/LD/Danczuk, but I suspect Danczuk is not going to get very far. Isn't there some rule about MPs who stand down without re-contesting not getting a redundancy payment?
Casper Schmeichel to sign for Man Utd after he recently changed agents to replace Real Madrid bound David De Gea
Kasper signed a 5 year deal last summer, reportedly on £100k wages. He will be very expensive for Man Utd.
However our owners are loaded, and last summer refused to sell key players at any price (Kante had a buyout clause, but more recent contracts reputedly do not). They will not sell cheaply and quite likely not at all.
Money is no object at Man Utd and he was with his Father in the stands at one of Uniteds recent home games. I think the attraction of following in his Fathers's footsteps will also be strong
He is known to be a Man U fan.
Our owners are substantially as rich as the Glasers, and better businessmen. They will not sell unless they want to, and I don't think they will want to.
Holding players this way is not always wise, we did last year for Vardy, Mahrez and Drinkwater, and it did seem to cause some discontent.
I Think Kasper will only go to a Champions League cup, and I think Man City might make an offer of Joe Hart plus some cash. I think the owners may well go for that if they sell at all.
What's the story with Daisley. Did a nat run off with his wife/partner/dinner money.
He's had to spend a couple of years suppressing his Zionist, Catholic, right wing inclinations. That's a big bag of pus that needs to be drained, and he's got an audience waiting to lap it up.
Ah the PB Tories foaming at the mouth about our Nicola.
Does it never occur that you are victims of believing whatever suits you in the moment. You jump up and down when a tv station reports (wrongly) that Sturgeon has dismissed independence from the campaign and then still jump up and down when she repeats what she said at the outset.
Which was 1) the election will not decide indy. That will be decided at a referendum.2) The mandate for a ref given Brxit was given last year at the Sc Parly elections and 3) this election will back the Parliament's right to allow Scotland to decide its own future, to oppose the hard Brexit Tories, and to provide the coherent opposition that the country needs.
Looks like more Remain Labour going to the Tories than are Leave Labour. And very few Remain Tories going to the LibDems. Presumably put off by that famed Eurosceptic, Tim Farron....
Update: I've accessed the census data - Rochdale is a relatively young constituency and the population is one quarter Asian-British, the vast majority of whom are Pakistani and Bangladeshi, i.e. there are lots of Muslims in Rochdale (Muslim population: 23.6%.) BES research suggests about 75% of Muslim voters support Labour.
The age and ethnic profile therefore strongly favours Labour. They'll probably hold.
Yeah, looks like a Labour hold. I suppose one could just about envisage the Tories sneaking through if Labour's vote splits three ways Lab/LD/Danczuk, but I suspect Danczuk is not going to get very far. Isn't there some rule about MPs who stand down without re-contesting not getting a redundancy payment?
I'd want more than 4/1 on the Tories.
I believe so. I seem to recall reading that one of the SNP MPs who had the whip withdrawn wasn't standing again, and as a result would not be entitled to redundancy money. Assuming that this is the case, £500 for a deposit would be a small price for Danczuk to pay to secure a (presumably quite handsome) return.
Looks like more Remain Labour going to the Tories than are Leave Labour. And very few Remain Tories going to the LibDems. Presumably put off by that famed Eurosceptic, Tim Farron....
That graphic suggests a modest number of Labour Remainers going to the Lib Dems, about a third of the Ukip vote going to the Tories, and not a whole lot else.
I am surprised that there's not a little bit more movement, but then again the 2015 voter flow data from the polls is somewhat variable.
I'm not sure what we're supposed to learn from that, other that don't make threats you don't wish to see called.
Like not trying to pretend that 'no deal is better than a bad deal'?.
Yaya Toure is out of contract in the summer, William.
Should he take Man City's 50p a week offer because any deal is better than no deal?
Of all the Brexit analogies I've seen, that one takes the biscuit...
Our situation is more like someone working in the USA on an L1 visa who has a big mortgage and has just handed in their notice, with no right to work for another company and big bills to pay. Their employer says to them, "Ok, you screwed up but we'll let you stay on in the same role with a pay cut of 10% and you'll lose your bonus." You'd take the deal.
Mr. Observer, congratulations, and keep up the good work. Are you doing fitness only, or fitness and weight-training? Changed your diet as well?
I'm not super into fitness myself, though I do try and do moderate exercise. A slight problem I have is that, in the past, I get Old Man Hip Syndrome whenever I exceed a certain amount of cycling (exercise bike only, currently at a high of just 10-11 miles a time).
Ah the PB Tories foaming at the mouth about our Nicola.
Does it never occur that you are victims of believing whatever suits you in the moment. You jump up and down when a tv station reports (wrongly) that Sturgeon has dismissed independence from the campaign and then still jump up and down when she repeats what she said at the outset.
Which was 1) the election will not decide indy. That will be decided at a referendum.2) The mandate for a ref given Brxit was given last year at the Sc Parly elections and 3) this election will back the Parliament's right to allow Scotland to decide its own future, to oppose the hard Brexit Tories, and to provide the coherent opposition that the country needs.
Nuff said
Summary of the General Election, courtesy of the Scottish Government:
I'm not sure what we're supposed to learn from that, other that don't make threats you don't wish to see called.
Like not trying to pretend that 'no deal is better than a bad deal'?.
Yaya Toure is out of contract in the summer, William.
Should he take Man City's 50p a week offer because any deal is better than no deal?
Of all the Brexit analogies I've seen, that one takes the biscuit...
Our situation is more like someone working in the USA on an L1 visa who has a big mortgage and has just handed in their notice, with no right to work for another company and big bills to pay. Their employer says to them, "Ok, you screwed up but we'll let you stay on in the same role with a pay cut of 10% and you'll lose your bonus." You'd take the deal.
So, you're advocating taking the 50p
Dear, dear. You have a terribly despondent view of this country.
Ah the PB Tories foaming at the mouth about our Nicola.
Does it never occur that you are victims of believing whatever suits you in the moment. You jump up and down when a tv station reports (wrongly) that Sturgeon has dismissed independence from the campaign and then still jump up and down when she repeats what she said at the outset.
Which was 1) the election will not decide indy. That will be decided at a referendum.2) The mandate for a ref given Brxit was given last year at the Sc Parly elections and 3) this election will back the Parliament's right to allow Scotland to decide its own future, to oppose the hard Brexit Tories, and to provide the coherent opposition that the country needs.
Mr. Observer, congratulations, and keep up the good work. Are you doing fitness only, or fitness and weight-training? Changed your diet as well?
I'm not super into fitness myself, though I do try and do moderate exercise. A slight problem I have is that, in the past, I get Old Man Hip Syndrome whenever I exceed a certain amount of cycling (exercise bike only, currently at a high of just 10-11 miles a time).
Eating and drinking less is the main thing. My fitness regime is short and sharp, five times a week: press-ups, sit-ups and squats. I am now up to 32, 57 and 62 respectively. It only takes a few minutes, but has me gasping for breath, which I figure is good.
What's the story with Daisley. Did a nat run off with his wife/partner/dinner money.
He's had to spend a couple of years suppressing his Zionist, Catholic, right wing inclinations. That's a big bag of pus that needs to be drained, and he's got an audience waiting to lap it up.
Just read his "story" According to him the nat's cost him his job. Nothing to do with him being shite at it. Then his story appears in the Daily Mail.
There were actually remain UKIP voters? seems like an oxymoron to me...
Bizarrely true. Between 2-5% of kipper voters said they would vote Remain in polls. A bit incomprehensible, but there you are!
Not really. We think of UKIP as being all about the EU, but their claim to be an umbrella party that attracts some of the disgruntled is not altogether false. voting UKIP is a mood thing more than an endorsement of specific policies (which is why their vote is largely immune to scandals, splits, resignations, etc.).
On another note entirely - you know when you're a fat git when you lose two stone in weight and no-one notices!!
Congratulations & commisserations!
I'm trying the 5:2 diet which is remarkably easy after the first couple of weeks....
Cheers!
I decided I needed a whole life change on the consumption front. Less of everything, basically. And it has to be forever. The drinking has been pretty easy to rein in, the eating much harder. But it is beginning to seem natural. I don't think I could begin the 5:2 and I definitely couldn't sustain it, so more power to your elbow!
Rochdale update: Danczuk to stand as an Independent, so worth a flutter on the LDs, I'd say.
Would be wasting your money. Last year's locals;
Labour 51.9% Conservative 19.3% UK Independence Party 16.1% Liberal Democrat 8.4% Green Party 2.6% Independent 1.5% Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 0.1%
Agreed. And I really doubt if Danczuk has any significant support left. I wouldn't have dreamed of voting for him even if he'd been my Labour candidate.
I'm not sure what we're supposed to learn from that, other that don't make threats you don't wish to see called.
Like not trying to pretend that 'no deal is better than a bad deal'?
Greece actually had more leverage than we have now.
No.
We have a lot more leverage. If we leave without a deal it will be painful. But nothing like as painful as a disorderly Euro exit.
And nowhere near as painful as what Greece actually went through.
On a rational basis, the EU have as much to lose as do we - a smaller percentage of EU GDP, of course, but in nominal terms, probably something similar. Rational actors would come to a reasonable settlement, but sadly I'm far from sure that those negotiating will fall into that category.
Mr. Observer, you're ahead of me on squats (when I do them it's just the 50, although I've been thinking of rejigging my old regime a little). As it stands I exercise thrice weekly: cycling, an abs set (includes press-ups), and alternating weights sets (one of which includes the squats, albeit without weights).
I'm a smidge ahead of you on press-ups/situps, though.
Fortunately for me, gluttony is my least favourite vice (although I have recently gained a little weight).
Anyway, glad it's working for you. I also went, initially, for high frequency, low duration. Good to get into the habit of exercise. I've found longer sessions (only the length of one Blackadder episode for cycling, to avoid Old Man Hip Syndrome) more useful over time.
Mr. Observer, you're ahead of me on squats (when I do them it's just the 50, although I've been thinking of rejigging my old regime a little). As it stands I exercise thrice weekly: cycling, an abs set (includes press-ups), and alternating weights sets (one of which includes the squats, albeit without weights).
I'm a smidge ahead of you on press-ups/situps, though.
Fortunately for me, gluttony is my least favourite vice (although I have recently gained a little weight).
Anyway, glad it's working for you. I also went, initially, for high frequency, low duration. Good to get into the habit of exercise. I've found longer sessions (only the length of one Blackadder episode for cycling, to avoid Old Man Hip Syndrome) more useful over time.
I really enjoy cycling and plan to do plenty come the summertime. The short, sharp burst approach seems to be working - I feel a lot fitter, for sure.
On another note entirely - you know when you're a fat git when you lose two stone in weight and no-one notices!!
Congratulations & commisserations!
I'm trying the 5:2 diet which is remarkably easy after the first couple of weeks....
Is that the one where you eat very little 2 days of the week ?
Exactly. 5 days eat as you normally would, (try to be sensible, but effectively 'no change') and on two days limit yourself to 600 calories - one light meal, or several snacks (I find apples good) and a lighter meal - drink plenty of water. I found the first couple of weeks tough for two days, now its easy - I also found I've appreciated the taste of food more and don't try to 'catch up' by eating more on the non-fasting days. Haven't looked at the scales, but some clothes are noticeably looser....
I'm not sure what we're supposed to learn from that, other that don't make threats you don't wish to see called.
Like not trying to pretend that 'no deal is better than a bad deal'?
Greece actually had more leverage than we have now.
No.
We have a lot more leverage. If we leave without a deal it will be painful. But nothing like as painful as a disorderly Euro exit.
Absolutely. Sterling might fall again but it will not drop 50%. In any case, UK is to some extent like Japan. Japan has very high debts [ about 250% of GDP ]. But most of it are with Japanese banks.
That is why I have never understood this obsession with Debt / GDP in the UK or more precisely with actual deficit numbers even if Debt/GDP ratio was falling. What's wrong with a small deficit but with the debt/GDP ratio falling ?
Trump's likely budget: Do they give a damn ? What happened to the national debt under Reagan ?
There were actually remain UKIP voters? seems like an oxymoron to me...
Bizarrely true. Between 2-5% of kipper voters said they would vote Remain in polls. A bit incomprehensible, but there you are!
Not really. We think of UKIP as being all about the EU, but their claim to be an umbrella party that attracts some of the disgruntled is not altogether false. voting UKIP is a mood thing more than an endorsement of specific policies (which is why their vote is largely immune to scandals, splits, resignations, etc.).
I think a very large part of voting is brand identity. Most people are not very up on manifesto nuances.
Presumably Remainer kippers like to associate themselves with other socially conservative aspects of the kipper image.
I'm not sure what we're supposed to learn from that, other that don't make threats you don't wish to see called.
Like not trying to pretend that 'no deal is better than a bad deal'?
Greece actually had more leverage than we have now.
No.
We have a lot more leverage. If we leave without a deal it will be painful. But nothing like as painful as a disorderly Euro exit.
Absolutely. Sterling might fall again but it will not drop 50%. In any case, UK is to some extent like Japan. Japan has very high debts [ about 250% of GDP ]. But most of it are with Japanese banks.
That is why I have never understood this obsession with Debt / GDP or more precisely actual deficit numbers even if Debt/GDP ratio was falling. What's wrong with a small deficit but with the ratio falling.
Trump's likely budget: Do they give a damn ? What happened to the national debt under Reagan ?
Because with an even smaller deficit, or a surplus, the ratio falls faster. The same goes for the amount spent on debt interest, which is currently equivalent to the half of the schools budget.
On another note entirely - you know when you're a fat git when you lose two stone in weight and no-one notices!!
Congratulations & commisserations!
I'm trying the 5:2 diet which is remarkably easy after the first couple of weeks....
Is that the one where you eat very little 2 days of the week ?
Exactly. 5 days eat as you normally would, (try to be sensible, but effectively 'no change') and on two days limit yourself to 600 calories - one light meal, or several snacks (I find apples good) and a lighter meal - drink plenty of water. I found the first couple of weeks tough for two days, now its easy - I also found I've appreciated the taste of food more and don't try to 'catch up' by eating more on the non-fasting days. Haven't looked at the scales, but some clothes are noticeably looser....
On and off, I have tried various but none of them sincerely [ I mean without cheating ]. THe only time it has really worked is by actually counting what I ate. There are websites for that e.g. Spark. I was looking from a diabetics point of view but the principle is the same.
Comments
Still though, I can't see a mega majority yet and stick broadly to 35 seat majority as good nights work. Everything I think is wholly dependent on Labour turnout. Mega polling figures for the Conservatives after a point possibly won't stack up in the right places.
1. The election is all about Scotland being brutally wrenched from the EU against its will! Polls show that's a dud.
2. Conservatives starting to do worryingly well. Scream "TORIES!!!!" Polls show that no longer works.
3. Attempt to neutralise Conservatives by claiming the election is nothing to do with independence, ergo no need for pro-Union voters to back pro-Union parties. Voters see through a transparent falsehood. That doesn't work either.
4. If all else fails, return to plan A and bang on about separatism. This is a core vote strategy from a party on the defensive.
Fortunately for the SNP their core vote is huge and they'll hold most of their seats, but I think they can wave a fair handful of MPs goodbye, along with conceding a majority of the popular vote to the Unionist parties. That should be enough for the Prime Minister to tell the Scottish Government to get another Holyrood majority for an independence manifesto in 2021, before a new vote will be conceded.
That's independence shoved back in its box for another four years. After that, we shall see.
General election is not about whether Scotland should be independent or not. General election about right to hold IndyRef.
She is framing this about right to choose to make it safe for non Indy supporting people tovoted SNP.
He is a very ideological man, deeply wedded to a set of beliefs is socialism that the rest of the would quietly forgoing about after the fall of communism.
Mrs May, for all her faults, of which there are many is not wedded to much to any ideology especially not socialism. And her negotiation will be a pragmatic 'this for that' styel. I would have preferred a much bolder, abolish all tariffs! approach, but Mays will still work out OK, if not spectacular.
1) 58% of all the cars produced in the UK are not EU bound. The majority of car production is for either domestic or global consumption;
2) The average value of a British export is over £20k, while the average value of an import is £13k. We sell premium, we buy cheap;
3) The top 10 car registrations do not include a single BMW or Audi branded car. They are full of VWs, Fords, Vauxhall's etc;
4) The difference between the number of cars we manufacture and the number we register each year is 900,000. We have nearly a million vehicle net demand that we fill with imports. That doesn't include 500, 000 commercial vehicles.
5) In 2016, 87% of UK’s imports came from the EU, while only 42% of UK’s export went to the EU. Whereas the percentage of imports coming from the EU has remained consistently high over the last 20 years, the share of UK exports going to the EU has fallen sharply from a peak of 71% in 1999. This change is the result of exports to non-EU countries growing much faster than exports to EU countries.
6) 80% of engine production has been outsourced to the EU as well.
7) This country still produces fewer vehicles than it did pre-EU, in spite of a massive spike in the population and car usage;
All voters will hear is the First Minister saying its nothing to do with independence one week, all about independence the next. "Scotland's right to decide" = if you vote for us on June 8th, we will take that as a green light to demand indyref2 on June 9th, because the Scottish Parliament already voted to have one a few weeks back. So it's obviously all about independence.
People aren't that thick.
Anyway, this is a healthy development. At least the pretence that the General Election in Scotland is about any issue other than independence can now be chucked in a skip, and the catfight can resume in earnest.
More cogently, most harmonization of things like highway signage etc is decided at an inter-state level, not by the federal government, for the mutual benefit and convenience of their citizens.
Interestingly, another example of inter-state cooperation, the Driver License Compact (that covers states applying points acquired in a different state to their own drivers' licenses) does not include all the states, but does include some Canadian provinces.
Rochdale is so far down the Conservative target list that it must fall outside of the top 150, but given the circumstances that you describe it can't be regarded as totally unwinnable, surely?
UKIP in Romford w Betfair Sportsbook
Danczuk has no personal vote, despite what he thinks, but will draw some votes from Labourites.
UKIP will die on their backside, definitely winnable for Tories, but the pensioners may forgive Tim Fallon for Nick Clegg's transgressions. 7/1 LD at present, 4/1 Tories. DYOR.
Labour 51.9%
Conservative 19.3%
UK Independence Party 16.1%
Liberal Democrat 8.4%
Green Party 2.6%
Independent 1.5%
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 0.1%
its a bit cold atm to go genital waving
on the other hand I do get deals done its just I dont start from assuming I have nothing to negotiate with, and Im not afraid to walk away if the deal is no good
However our owners are loaded, and last summer refused to sell key players at any price (Kante had a buyout clause, but more recent contracts reputedly do not). They will not sell cheaply and quite likely not at all.
The age and ethnic profile therefore strongly favours Labour. They'll probably hold.
The German finance minister then proposed Greece leave the Euro and restructure its debts (i.e. default) outside the Eurozone.
At which point Varoufakis folded.
I'm not sure what we're supposed to learn from that, other that don't make threats you don't wish to see called.
I had a few beers, and an agreeable dinner, and came back and its still the same ballaching tedium about BrExit in which nothing is being said that wasnt said a year ago, just in increasingly belicose ways. Good night!
Greece actually had more leverage than we have now.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/859096709615542274
I'd want more than 4/1 on the Tories.
Should he take Man City's 50p a week offer because any deal is better than no deal?
Our owners are substantially as rich as the Glasers, and better businessmen. They will not sell unless they want to, and I don't think they will want to.
Holding players this way is not always wise, we did last year for Vardy, Mahrez and Drinkwater, and it did seem to cause some discontent.
I Think Kasper will only go to a Champions League cup, and I think Man City might make an offer of Joe Hart plus some cash. I think the owners may well go for that if they sell at all.
Does it never occur that you are victims of believing whatever suits you in the moment. You jump up and down when a tv station reports (wrongly) that Sturgeon has dismissed independence from the campaign and then still jump up and down when she repeats what she said at the outset.
Which was 1) the election will not decide indy. That will be decided at a referendum.2) The mandate for a ref given Brxit was given last year at the Sc Parly elections and 3) this election will back the Parliament's right to allow Scotland to decide its own future, to oppose the hard Brexit Tories, and to provide the coherent opposition that the country needs.
Nuff said
I'm trying the 5:2 diet which is remarkably easy after the first couple of weeks....
I am surprised that there's not a little bit more movement, but then again the 2015 voter flow data from the polls is somewhat variable.
Our situation is more like someone working in the USA on an L1 visa who has a big mortgage and has just handed in their notice, with no right to work for another company and big bills to pay. Their employer says to them, "Ok, you screwed up but we'll let you stay on in the same role with a pay cut of 10% and you'll lose your bonus." You'd take the deal.
We have a lot more leverage. If we leave without a deal it will be painful. But nothing like as painful as a disorderly Euro exit.
I'm not super into fitness myself, though I do try and do moderate exercise. A slight problem I have is that, in the past, I get Old Man Hip Syndrome whenever I exceed a certain amount of cycling (exercise bike only, currently at a high of just 10-11 miles a time).
Independence, Independence, Independence, Tories, Independence.
Oh, and Europe, but we haven't made up our minds re: EU, EEA/EFTA, EFTA, or Out. We'll get back to you on that one.
And also: Independence, Independence, Tories, Tories and Independence.
And Tories.
And Independence.
Dear, dear. You have a terribly despondent view of this country.
Nothing to do with him being shite at it.
Then his story appears in the Daily Mail.
Job for life at the DM, nat basher in chief.
The bigger risk to them is trade displacement. We simply start spending all our money in different places.
Any #Brexit deal requires a strong & stable understanding of the complex issues involved.The clock is ticking - it's time to get real.
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/859108190490963968
Why is the mandate from last year wrong pray tell?
I decided I needed a whole life change on the consumption front. Less of everything, basically. And it has to be forever. The drinking has been pretty easy to rein in, the eating much harder. But it is beginning to seem natural. I don't think I could begin the 5:2 and I definitely couldn't sustain it, so more power to your elbow!
On a rational basis, the EU have as much to lose as do we - a smaller percentage of EU GDP, of course, but in nominal terms, probably something similar. Rational actors would come to a reasonable settlement, but sadly I'm far from sure that those negotiating will fall into that category.
I'm a smidge ahead of you on press-ups/situps, though.
Fortunately for me, gluttony is my least favourite vice (although I have recently gained a little weight).
Anyway, glad it's working for you. I also went, initially, for high frequency, low duration. Good to get into the habit of exercise. I've found longer sessions (only the length of one Blackadder episode for cycling, to avoid Old Man Hip Syndrome) more useful over time.
You may be interested in this little web tool developed by my University:
http://riskscore.diabetes.org.uk/start
FWIW, I have a BMI of 28 and a score of 15. Higher than I would like, and a powerful motivator.
Been quite productive today. Not especially into cricket, but still good news.
https://twitter.com/GovHowardDean/status/858724768765403136
As David Frum has pointed out both on his twitter feed and in his Atlantic column, it's Corbyn who is the 'Trump' candidate in this country.
That is why I have never understood this obsession with Debt / GDP in the UK or more precisely with actual deficit numbers even if Debt/GDP ratio was falling. What's wrong with a small deficit but with the debt/GDP ratio falling ?
Trump's likely budget: Do they give a damn ? What happened to the national debt under Reagan ?
Presumably Remainer kippers like to associate themselves with other socially conservative aspects of the kipper image.
Mr. Observer, only use an exercise bike myself. I am pleased global warming is enhancing your health
Anyway, I'd best be off.
Good luck with yours.