Labour MP: our leader would make a shite Prime Minister. Vote Labour.
Beyond parody.
He thinks that approach will save him. It won't.
There's 46 days more of this to go - watching dozens of moderate Labour MPs in what are now marginal seats squirming to get away from Corbyn to save their own skin, it's going to be hilarious viewing!
I think it's genuinely tragic. I remember what it feels like from the other end of a drubbing and just on a human level you have to have sympathy.
Yes. Streeting is not one of the Morons, he hasn't served as one of Corbyn's shadow ministers and was not responsible for any of the mistakes of the last Labour Government, and, insofar as I'm aware, has never been what could be described as a supporter of the new regime.
He's also, barring a Houdini-like act of electoral escapology, utterly doomed.
The man's liable to become collateral damage in what is to come, but such is life. Labour, as an institution, has transgressed. It must be punished.
Labour MP: our leader would make a shite Prime Minister. Vote Labour.
Beyond parody.
He thinks that approach will save him. It won't.
May be so, but before he’s gone, we can at least admire his honesty…
Yes, he's a decent guy and understands where Labour ought to be positioned. Unfortunately for Labour more of their sensible MPs are in vulnerable circumstances, the loonies are mostly in hypersafe seats sadly.
It will lose him more support than it gains. He is being disowned by many Corbynites already, and of course the picture of division and in-fighting won't win Labour any support either. But he is clearly way too trapped by previous utterances to have any other credible choices.
Exactly, Labour MPs in marginal seats must feel like French aristos in the 1790s waiting for the grim inevitability of a cart ride to the Place de la Revolution.
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives would be very pleased with 3 seats. The 12 projected by Curtice based on the Panelbase survey would be extraordinary.
But even if the Tories and Lib Dems combined took 15, that would still leave the SNP with 44.
So long as (a) Scottish politics remains divided along Unionist/Nationalist lines, and (b) SLAB is still alive, the SNP are (mostly) untouchable.
When you factor in the shy Tories, surely numerous in Nat occupied Scotland, Curtice is downplaying Conservative prospects.
Hmmmm... I don't discount the possibility of a shy Tory vote by any means, but it would have to be huge to make a big dent in the SNP's Westminster contingent. And even if the Thatcher era resentment of the party is fading, you suspect that there's still quite a lot of that kind of sentiment about.
I'd be astonished if SNP+Green didn't equal at least 45% on polling day, and given that the Greens are about as much of a niche interest in Westminster elections North of the Border as they are South of it, that means the SNP getting 42% minimum. Against that, Conservative support is capped by the presence of the blocking group of residual Labour voters. 30% would be an excellent result for them.
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives would be very pleased with 3 seats. The 12 projected by Curtice based on the Panelbase survey would be extraordinary.
But even if the Tories and Lib Dems combined took 15, that would still leave the SNP with 44.
So long as (a) Scottish politics remains divided along Unionist/Nationalist lines, and (b) SLAB is still alive, the SNP are (mostly) untouchable.
When you factor in the shy Tories, surely numerous in Nat occupied Scotland, Curtice is downplaying Conservative prospects.
Curtice isn't doing anything other than saying what would happen if certain polling numbers were applied to the last election.
Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.
Plaid pretty well nailed on. Wales opinion poll out tomorrow will confirm.
The Welsh poll tomorrow is likely going to show no Labour seats west or north of the Valleys. Which will be horrific enough. But if Labour truly melts down, and the valleys aren't ultra safe, which seats there might also fall? Would welcome your thoughts....
Labour MP: our leader would make a shite Prime Minister. Vote Labour.
Beyond parody.
He thinks that approach will save him. It won't.
Given the ongoing demographic changes in Ilford North I wouldn't be surprised if Streeting Bucks the trend and holds his seat. It is trending more and more Labour every year - Ilford South used to be a marginal and it's a safe seat now for the same reason.
Fillon under criminal investigation for defrauding the taxpayer of substantial sums of money.
Le Pen whose main selling point is that she is slightly less insane than her father.
Macron, a man who married his teacher and is allegedly living in a secret gay relationship (and who doesn't even have a party to support him in Parliament).
Melenchon who makes Corbyn look like a rather wet Lib Dem.
Is this really the best France could do?
Fillon is a crook (who does at least recognise that France's biggest problem is its schloretic labour market).
Macron is a Blair-eque centrist (who does at least recognise that France's biggest problem is its schloretic labour market).
Le Pen thinks the biggest problem with France is the excessively business friendly environment.
Melenchon thinks that all income about EUR75,000 should be taxed at 100%.
Macron is a failed minister from the administration of one of the most catastrophically unpopular Presidents in history with an, um, interesting back story. And he probably is the best choice. Remarkable.
Macron actually pushed through - against opposition from the President and his party - some modest labour market reforms. For that, he deserves credit. From a technocratic perspective, he simplified and improved the ridiculously complex set of social charges on employees.
I think the issue is that, were he elected, he would struggle to get further reforms through, especially without a party. And protected interests would go to the barricades.
But he is tough. And - personally - I like his unconventional personal life. That suggests refreshing degree of not giving a fuck about people think of him.
But he clearly DOES give a fuck what people think about him, that's why he is (allegedly) lying about his domestic set-up. And it's the lies that upset the French, more than the (alleged) homosexuality.
That said, some conservative Catholic voters won't like the gay stuff either. But he was never going to win them. They're all for Fillon,
i have this morning slightly increased my cash on Fillon. Just a feeling that his conservative, catholic heartland votes might turn out in a way that lets him through.
For those who missed it, here's my scientifically defined measure of Labour's performance, in seat changes, listed according to Roman battlefield defeats (or victories, if Labour gain seats):
And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers: +10 Zela +20 Tigranocerta +30 Zama
(If the polling keeps the Conservatives on 50%, I may have to add Eastern aspects, with Manzikert, Kleidion and the Fourth Crusade on standby, if needed).
Can I suggest that you don't add the eastern empires defects on (at lest not yet)
To push your metaphor perhaps the Lib Dems can be considered as the Eastern Roman Empire, if this is a total wipe out for Labour then it could be 476 when Odoacer ended the western roman empire, but instead of declaring himself Emprea, instead he sent the crown and all the symbolic stuff to the empire in the East. So if Lab come out smaller than Lib Dem and Lib Dem become the official opposition, this would be the appropriate metaphor.
Perhaps this election could be at worst the 410 sacking of Rome?
Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.
Plaid pretty well nailed on. Wales opinion poll out tomorrow will confirm.
The Welsh poll tomorrow is likely going to show no Labour seats west or north of the Valleys. Which will be horrific enough. But if Labour truly melts down, and the valleys aren't ultra safe, which seats there might also fall? Would welcome your thoughts....
For those who missed it, here's my scientifically defined measure of Labour's performance, in seat changes, listed according to Roman battlefield defeats (or victories, if Labour gain seats):
Here is my corresponding list derived from British naval history, with English/British victories if Labour lose seats, and defeats if they gain them:
-100 Battle of the Nile -80 Trafalgar -60 Taranto -40 Dogger Bank -20 Jutland 0 Cape Finisterre +20 Convoy PQ17 +40 Sinking of the Prince of Wales and the Repulse
An interesting set of choices there, Mr. Fishing, particularly that you put the Nile as a greater victory than Trafalgar. Perhaps it was at the tactical level but surely not at the strategic, war changing, one.
By the same token you include Jutland as a positive win when I should have thought it was a strategic success but a tactical failure.
I think I would replace Convoy PQ17, which was in the great scheme of things not important, with Jutland and Insert The Saintes in the -20 slot (that battle being both a strategic and tactical success).
Labour MP: our leader would make a shite Prime Minister. Vote Labour.
Beyond parody.
He thinks that approach will save him. It won't.
There's 46 days more of this to go - watching dozens of moderate Labour MPs in what are now marginal seats squirming to get away from Corbyn to save their own skin, it's going to be hilarious viewing!
I think it's genuinely tragic. I remember what it feels like from the other end of a drubbing and just on a human level you have to have sympathy.
Yes. Streeting is not one of the Morons, he hasn't served as one of Corbyn's shadow ministers and was not responsible for any of the mistakes of the last Labour Government, and, insofar as I'm aware, has never been what could be described as a supporter of the new regime.
He's also, barring a Houdini-like act of electoral escapology, utterly doomed.
The man's liable to become collateral damage in what is to come, but such is life. Labour, as an institution, has transgressed. It must be punished.
Labour MP: our leader would make a shite Prime Minister. Vote Labour.
Beyond parody.
He thinks that approach will save him. It won't.
There's 46 days more of this to go - watching dozens of moderate Labour MPs in what are now marginal seats squirming to get away from Corbyn to save their own skin, it's going to be hilarious viewing!
I think it's genuinely tragic. I remember what it feels like from the other end of a drubbing and just on a human level you have to have sympathy.
Yes. Streeting is not one of the Morons, he hasn't served as one of Corbyn's shadow ministers and was not responsible for any of the mistakes of the last Labour Government, and, insofar as I'm aware, has never been what could be described as a supporter of the new regime.
He's also, barring a Houdini-like act of electoral escapology, utterly doomed.
The man's liable to become collateral damage in what is to come, but such is life. Labour, as an institution, has transgressed. It must be punished.
Streeting is very likely to lose this time but is young enough to come back in Ilford or somewhere else, if Labour come to their senses.
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
I see your logic but the trouble with that bet is, since polling puts the Lib Dems and Labour absolutely nowhere in Scotland, what you're effectively saying when you say "SNP failing to win a majority" is "Tories to win a majority in Scotland" - doesn't seem like such a good bet when you put it that way.
I would be very surprised if the LibDems didn't win three seats in Scotland. The Holyrood elections were excellent predictors last time, which tells you the LibDems should gain both NE Fife and Edinburgh West.
Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.
Plaid pretty well nailed on. Wales opinion poll out tomorrow will confirm.
The Welsh poll tomorrow is likely going to show no Labour seats west or north of the Valleys. Which will be horrific enough. But if Labour truly melts down, and the valleys aren't ultra safe, which seats there might also fall? Would welcome your thoughts....
Torfaen.
Interesting call. If the Tories can mop up the UKIP vote and Labour does drop markedly, that could be a big win for the blues. Labour has been lucky in the past that they have had an evenly split opposition.
(I'm just looking to find my Gower equivalent win from last time! Torfaen might be it....)
The key learning point is that when a party is repelling voters, you (quite reasonably) get the biggest number of switchers in locations where there are the greatest number of (former) supporters. This is why modelling using UNS is potentially misleading this election.
Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.
Plaid pretty well nailed on. Wales opinion poll out tomorrow will confirm.
The Welsh poll tomorrow is likely going to show no Labour seats west or north of the Valleys. Which will be horrific enough. But if Labour truly melts down, and the valleys aren't ultra safe, which seats there might also fall? Would welcome your thoughts....
At a loss at the moment to know what to think. I understand tomorrows polling dire for Labour, so all bets off for me at the moment. I am just hoping that the strong residual support, particularly in the South will hold up to some extent on polling today.
Sexologists have long known bestiality/zoophilia is a very common female fantasy (much more common in women than in men). Bears, stallions and gorillas are the usual objects of desire. This is probably because they have features of "hyper masculinity".
There are hints of this in Disney's Beauty and the Beast, mentioned yesterday. After the Beast is transformed into Prince Charming, Belle (Emma Watson) looks at him and says "would you mind growing a beard?" He smiles at her - and growls. Making her giggle in an aroused way. The entire exchange implies, very clearly, that she rather fancied him as a Beast, horns and all.
In A Grain of Truth, by Andrej Sapkoswki, the Beast comments that women are much more interested in him now than they were when he was fully human.
Can someone give me some help? A thread or two ago, I saw results of a poll published showing people's views on various possible manifesto commitments (minimum wage of £10, 0.7% DFID target, more NHS funding etc). I now can't find it for the life of me - anyone have a link? Thanks.
The key learning point is that when a party is repelling voters, you (quite reasonably) get the biggest number of switchers in locations where there are the greatest number of (former) supporters.
I never thought we'd reach that point in England or Wales for Labour, but no longer ruled out.
For those who missed it, here's my scientifically defined measure of Labour's performance, in seat changes, listed according to Roman battlefield defeats (or victories, if Labour gain seats):
Here is my corresponding list derived from British naval history, with English/British victories if Labour lose seats, and defeats if they gain them:
-100 Battle of the Nile -80 Trafalgar -60 Taranto -40 Dogger Bank -20 Jutland 0 Cape Finisterre +20 Convoy PQ17 +40 Sinking of the Prince of Wales and the Repulse
An interesting set of choices there, Mr. Fishing, particularly that you put the Nile as a greater victory than Trafalgar. Perhaps it was at the tactical level but surely not at the strategic, war changing, one.
By the same token you include Jutland as a positive win when I should have thought it was a strategic success but a tactical failure.
I think I would replace Convoy PQ17, which was in the great scheme of things not important, with Jutland and Insert The Saintes in the -20 slot (that battle being both a strategic and tactical success).
The Nile crippled the French invasion of Egypt and threat to India whereas the threat of an invasion of Britain had much diminished before Trafalgar. Ironically the French and Spanish ships lost at Trafalgar would have likely changed sides alongside Spain in 1808.
For those who missed it, here's my scientifically defined measure of Labour's performance, in seat changes, listed according to Roman battlefield defeats (or victories, if Labour gain seats):
Here is my corresponding list derived from British naval history, with English/British victories if Labour lose seats, and defeats if they gain them:
-100 Battle of the Nile -80 Trafalgar -60 Taranto -40 Dogger Bank -20 Jutland 0 Cape Finisterre +20 Convoy PQ17 +40 Sinking of the Prince of Wales and the Repulse
An interesting set of choices there, Mr. Fishing, particularly that you put the Nile as a greater victory than Trafalgar. Perhaps it was at the tactical level but surely not at the strategic, war changing, one.
By the same token you include Jutland as a positive win when I should have thought it was a strategic success but a tactical failure.
I think I would replace Convoy PQ17, which was in the great scheme of things not important, with Jutland and Insert The Saintes in the -20 slot (that battle being both a strategic and tactical success).
Thanks for your feedback Mr Llama. I was thinking mostly about tactical results, rather than strategic results. Of course any set of rankings like this will be subjective, but on your specific points:
- the strategic impact of Trafalgar: hadn't Napoleon already broken camp and turned east to deal with the Austrians and Russians by the time he got news of Trafalgar? Whereas the Nile conclusively doomed his Egyptian campaign and the French threat to India.
- I take your point about Jutland. I was thinking about the tactical results of the battle fleet clash, rather than the battle cruiser engagements, as the former was far more important. I agree with the substitution you propose. Let's leave Jutland out as it's (still) too controversial and replace Convoy PQ17 with the sinking of the Prince of Wales and replace the latter with the Battle of Beachy Head. I've also inserted the Spanish Armada and Sluys. The list is now:
-140 Spanish Armada -120 Sluys -100 Battle of the Nile -80 Trafalgar -60 Taranto -40 Dogger Bank -20 The Saints 0 Cape Finisterre +20 Sinking of the Prince of Wales and the Repulse +40 Beachy Head
Beware it might be total bollocks (there's a lot about) but the French-speaking broadcaster in Belgium has a list of results for some of overseas France.
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives would be very pleased with 3 seats. The 12 projected by Curtice based on the Panelbase survey would be extraordinary.
But even if the Tories and Lib Dems combined took 15, that would still leave the SNP with 44.
So long as (a) Scottish politics remains divided along Unionist/Nationalist lines, and (b) SLAB is still alive, the SNP are (mostly) untouchable.
When you factor in the shy Tories, surely numerous in Nat occupied Scotland, Curtice is downplaying Conservative prospects.
Hmmmm... I don't discount the possibility of a shy Tory vote by any means, but it would have to be huge to make a big dent in the SNP's Westminster contingent. And even if the Thatcher era resentment of the party is fading, you suspect that there's still quite a lot of that kind of sentiment about.
I'd be astonished if SNP+Green didn't equal at least 45% on polling day, and given that the Greens are about as much of a niche interest in Westminster elections North of the Border as they are South of it, that means the SNP getting 42% minimum. Against that, Conservative support is capped by the presence of the blocking group of residual Labour voters. 30% would be an excellent result for them.
FWIW Scottish Tories aren't shy - this is a by product of the party's Unionist history.
I think the pundits and current leadership classification of the likes of SLAB & SLID as Unionist parties is misplaced. I'd envisage the greater the Tory landslide the rump of these 2 parties in Scotland will be faced with a hard choice - I think what remains of SLAB will need to soften it's stance on independence to have any hope of reviving itself in an FPTP system.
Sexologists have long known bestiality/zoophilia is a very common female fantasy (much more common in women than in men). Bears, stallions and gorillas are the usual objects of desire. This is probably because they have features of "hyper masculinity".
There are hints of this in Disney's Beauty and the Beast, mentioned yesterday. After the Beast is transformed into Prince Charming, Belle (Emma Watson) looks at him and says "would you mind growing a beard?" He smiles at her - and growls. Making her giggle in an aroused way. The entire exchange implies, very clearly, that she rather fancied him as a Beast, horns and all.
I guess, but I was thinking more why anti-gay people, male and female, seem to come out with the bestiality comparisons so much, rather than merely zoophilia (I understand there is quite the niche market in, er, unconventional erotic literature of that description).
Plus people fantasize about shagging aliens, not all that necessarily very human looking aliens, all the time. The Mass Effect series is practically built on the idea.
Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.
Plaid pretty well nailed on. Wales opinion poll out tomorrow will confirm.
The Welsh poll tomorrow is likely going to show no Labour seats west or north of the Valleys. Which will be horrific enough. But if Labour truly melts down, and the valleys aren't ultra safe, which seats there might also fall? Would welcome your thoughts....
That's not strictly true. Firstly, I would expect Llanelli to hold. There's a heavily split opposition, with Plaid in second place. If Plaid can pull that one off they'd be on course for an SNP-esque rout of Labour in the Valleys as well. That's not on the cards.
There's also, of course, Swansea - but under present circumstances I'd only count Swansea East as being safe for Labour. Swansea West is vulnerable to a 'unite the Right' vote, given the size of the Ukip count. The Lib Dems also used to have a good vote there pre-2015; if they recover primarily at Labour's expense then the Labour candidate might be in trouble.
Torfaen is the one to watch if there is a proper Labour bloodbath. It's the Eastern-most outpost of the Valleys seats, adjacent to the Newports (both vulnerable) and Monmouth (safe Tory.) The Conservatives were second there last time, and Con+Ukip was only about 1,000 votes short of the winning Labour total.
It would require almost an 11% swing, but under current circumstances you have to reckon that's not entirely out of the question.
For those who missed it, here's my scientifically defined measure of Labour's performance, in seat changes, listed according to Roman battlefield defeats (or victories, if Labour gain seats):
And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers: +10 Zela +20 Tigranocerta +30 Zama
(If the polling keeps the Conservatives on 50%, I may have to add Eastern aspects, with Manzikert, Kleidion and the Fourth Crusade on standby, if needed).
Can I suggest that you don't add the eastern empires defects on (at lest not yet)
To push your metaphor perhaps the Lib Dems can be considered as the Eastern Roman Empire, if this is a total wipe out for Labour then it could be 476 when Odoacer ended the western roman empire, but instead of declaring himself Emprea, instead he sent the crown and all the symbolic stuff to the empire in the East. So if Lab come out smaller than Lib Dem and Lib Dem become the official opposition, this would be the appropriate metaphor.
Perhaps this election could be at worst the 410 sacking of Rome?
I think Cap Bon fulfils that function. It was the extinction event for the Western Empire. Had Africa been reconquered, they could have gone onto the offensive. With that massive defeat, they were finished.
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
I see your logic but the trouble with that bet is, since polling puts the Lib Dems and Labour absolutely nowhere in Scotland, what you're effectively saying when you say "SNP failing to win a majority" is "Tories to win a majority in Scotland" - doesn't seem like such a good bet when you put it that way.
I would be very surprised if the LibDems didn't win three seats in Scotland. The Holyrood elections were excellent predictors last time, which tells you the LibDems should gain both NE Fife and Edinburgh West.
Interesting - thanks for the tip!
Question for the Scots in the room - will we ever see Lib and Lab tactical voting for Con, if the SNP shape the election into a proxy referendum? Would that change things?
It's stunning what a terrible choice this is. Macron, a man who married his teacher and is allegedly living in a secret gay relationship
What does that have to do with the price of fish ?
Keeping thing secret (if that is what is happening) rather than merely being private should be unnecessary, and invites questions about if there are other, more significant, secrets.
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives would be very pleased with 3 seats. The 12 projected by Curtice based on the Panelbase survey would be extraordinary.
But even if the Tories and Lib Dems combined took 15, that would still leave the SNP with 44.
So long as (a) Scottish politics remains divided along Unionist/Nationalist lines, and (b) SLAB is still alive, the SNP are (mostly) untouchable.
My logic is as follows:
1. Let's assume the two Scottish polls are correct. Thus Scotland currently is roughly 43%/29% SNP/Tory. 2. Given the FPTP system and minimal non SNP/Tory strongholds, let's assume the Tories are likely to win a majority of Scottish seats if they win a plurality of votes. (A couple of LD seats benefit the bet, but are of relatively minor importance. SLAB's final seat slightly harms the bet, but is likewise minor.)
Question: Are the chances of Tory momentum increasing for a further ~6% swing more or less than 8% (12/1)? Conclusion: Given Tory strength and recent Scottish volatility, probably, though it remains unlikely.
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
I see your logic but the trouble with that bet is, since polling puts the Lib Dems and Labour absolutely nowhere in Scotland, what you're effectively saying when you say "SNP failing to win a majority" is "Tories to win a majority in Scotland" - doesn't seem like such a good bet when you put it that way.
I would be very surprised if the LibDems didn't win three seats in Scotland. The Holyrood elections were excellent predictors last time, which tells you the LibDems should gain both NE Fife and Edinburgh West.
Interesting - thanks for the tip!
Question for the Scots in the room - will we ever see Lib and Lab tactical voting for Con, if the SNP shape the election into a proxy referendum? Would that change things?
Yes - in the areas that are pro the Union ie north east and borders
The key learning point is that when a party is repelling voters, you (quite reasonably) get the biggest number of switchers in locations where there are the greatest number of (former) supporters. This is why modelling using UNS is potentially misleading this election.
I have just put a couple of quid on Tories in Leicester South. The opposition could split in this university seat, allowing the Tories through the middle. I dont think Jon Ashworth has much local following. Could be a meltdown.
Labour MP: our leader would make a shite Prime Minister. Vote Labour.
Beyond parody.
He thinks that approach will save him. It won't.
There's 46 days more of this to go - watching dozens of moderate Labour MPs in what are now marginal seats squirming to get away from Corbyn to save their own skin, it's going to be hilarious viewing!
For those of us who want to see the Labour Party survive there is quite a lot at stake here. The ideal outcome is for there to be clear differential swings between those associated with Corbyn, and those who have distanced themselves from him. For me, it's quite easy: my Labour MP nominated Corbyn; ergo I will vote Lib Dem. However, if I lived in Ilford North I would vote Labour, but in no way would I want that vote to be interpreted as an endorsement of Corbyn. The crucial question is who survives to pick up the pieces.
Kind of a shame they can't have Ukip 6.5, Green 3.25 mind you.
Assuming Labour levels of support holding up at around 44% in London, and in the low 50s in Manchester and Liverpool, back of the envelope gives Labour on 19% in the rest of England. Is that right?
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives would be very pleased with 3 seats. The 12 projected by Curtice based on the Panelbase survey would be extraordinary.
But even if the Tories and Lib Dems combined took 15, that would still leave the SNP with 44.
So long as (a) Scottish politics remains divided along Unionist/Nationalist lines, and (b) SLAB is still alive, the SNP are (mostly) untouchable.
When you factor in the shy Tories, surely numerous in Nat occupied Scotland, Curtice is downplaying Conservative prospects.
Hmmmm... I don't discount the possibility of a shy Tory vote by any means, but it would have to be huge to make a big dent in the SNP's Westminster contingent. And even if the Thatcher era resentment of the party is fading, you suspect that there's still quite a lot of that kind of sentiment about.
I'd be astonished if SNP+Green didn't equal at least 45% on polling day, and given that the Greens are about as much of a niche interest in Westminster elections North of the Border as they are South of it, that means the SNP getting 42% minimum. Against that, Conservative support is capped by the presence of the blocking group of residual Labour voters. 30% would be an excellent result for them.
FWIW Scottish Tories aren't shy - this is a by product of the party's Unionist history.
I think the pundits and current leadership classification of the likes of SLAB & SLID as Unionist parties is misplaced. I'd envisage the greater the Tory landslide the rump of these 2 parties in Scotland will be faced with a hard choice - I think what remains of SLAB will need to soften it's stance on independence to have any hope of reviving itself in an FPTP system.
Are the Conservatives' voters all as forthright as the actual members though?
If Labour gave in on independence then it would cease to have any function - not that I'm sure that it has any function as it is, except as a repository for the votes of its own surviving force-of-habit supporters. It might as well tell its members to join the SNP, and dissolve itself.
The Liberal Democrats are a more avowedly Unionist party and, like the Tories, do best in No-leaning areas. They have no incentive to change.
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives would be very pleased with 3 seats. The 12 projected by Curtice based on the Panelbase survey would be extraordinary.
But even if the Tories and Lib Dems combined took 15, that would still leave the SNP with 44.
So long as (a) Scottish politics remains divided along Unionist/Nationalist lines, and (b) SLAB is still alive, the SNP are (mostly) untouchable.
When you factor in the shy Tories, surely numerous in Nat occupied Scotland, Curtice is downplaying Conservative prospects.
I don't think there are shy Tories anymore, even in Scotland - based off the subsamples pollsters get up there, they find them very easily.
Kind of a shame they can't have Ukip 6.5, Green 3.25 mind you.
Assuming Labour levels of support holding up at around 44% in London, and in the low 50s in Manchester and Liverpool, back of the envelope gives Labour on 19% in the rest of England. Is that right?
Kind of a shame they can't have Ukip 6.5, Green 3.25 mind you.
Assuming Labour levels of support holding up at around 44% in London, and in the low 50s in Manchester and Liverpool, back of the envelope gives Labour on 19% in the rest of England. Is that right?
Haven't done the maths, but would be very surprised if Labour even got 50% of the overall vote in Greater Manchester in 2015. Imagine they're polling 40% at most now.
For those who missed it, here's my scientifically defined measure of Labour's performance, in seat changes, listed according to Roman battlefield defeats (or victories, if Labour gain seats):
Here is my corresponding list derived from British naval history, with English/British victories if Labour lose seats, and defeats if they gain them:
-100 Battle of the Nile -80 Trafalgar -60 Taranto -40 Dogger Bank -20 Jutland 0 Cape Finisterre +20 Convoy PQ17 +40 Sinking of the Prince of Wales and the Repulse
An interesting set of choices there, Mr. Fishing, particularly that you put the Nile as a greater victory than Trafalgar. Perhaps it was at the tactical level but surely not at the strategic, war changing, one.
By the same token you include Jutland as a positive win when I should have thought it was a strategic success but a tactical failure.
I think I would replace Convoy PQ17, which was in the great scheme of things not important, with Jutland and Insert The Saintes in the -20 slot (that battle being both a strategic and tactical success).
Thanks for your feedback Mr Llama. I was thinking mostly about tactical results, rather than strategic results. Of course any set of rankings like this will be subjective, but on your specific points:
- the strategic impact of Trafalgar: hadn't Napoleon already broken camp and turned east to deal with the Austrians and Russians by the time he got news of Trafalgar? Whereas the Nile conclusively doomed his Egyptian campaign and the French threat to India.
- I take your point about Jutland. I was thinking about the tactical results of the battle fleet clash, rather than the battle cruiser engagements, as the former was far more important. I agree with the substitution you propose. Let's leave Jutland out as it's (still) too controversial and replace Convoy PQ17 with the sinking of the Prince of Wales and replace the latter with the Battle of Beachy Head. I've also inserted the Spanish Armada and Sluys. The list is now:
-140 Spanish Armada -120 Sluys -100 Battle of the Nile -80 Trafalgar -60 Taranto -40 Dogger Bank -20 The Saints 0 Cape Finisterre +20 Sinking of the Prince of Wales and the Repulse +40 Beachy Head
Kind of a shame they can't have Ukip 6.5, Green 3.25 mind you.
Assuming Labour levels of support holding up at around 44% in London, and in the low 50s in Manchester and Liverpool, back of the envelope gives Labour on 19% in the rest of England. Is that right?
Kind of a shame they can't have Ukip 6.5, Green 3.25 mind you.
Assuming Labour levels of support holding up at around 44% in London, and in the low 50s in Manchester and Liverpool, back of the envelope gives Labour on 19% in the rest of England. Is that right?
I think it will be more like the high thirties in London.
Belgium and Swiss press is leaking result as usual...
Outre-mér that voted yesterday
Martinique: Mélenchon 27.36% Macron 25.53% Fillon 16.85% LePen 10.94% Hamon 9,75% Guyane: Mélenchon 24.72% LePen 24.29% Macron 18.75% Fillon 14.66% Hamon 5.69% Guadaloupe: : Macron 30.32% Mélenchon 23,99% Fillon 14.87% LePen 13.47% Hamon 9,72% St Pierre et Miquelon: : Mélenchon 35.45% LePen 18.16% Macron 17.97% Fillon 9,32% LHamon 8,24%
Waiting with trepidation for results from Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy
Kind of a shame they can't have Ukip 6.5, Green 3.25 mind you.
Assuming Labour levels of support holding up at around 44% in London, and in the low 50s in Manchester and Liverpool, back of the envelope gives Labour on 19% in the rest of England. Is that right?
Survation and Yougov have London subsamples that place Labour at 32 and 36 respectively. Comres have 32%.
LDs initially look good for 15-20% across London and the South. For context they were 22% in London and c.28% across the South in 2010.
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
I see your logic but the trouble with that bet is, since polling puts the Lib Dems and Labour absolutely nowhere in Scotland, what you're effectively saying when you say "SNP failing to win a majority" is "Tories to win a majority in Scotland" - doesn't seem like such a good bet when you put it that way.
I would be very surprised if the LibDems didn't win three seats in Scotland. The Holyrood elections were excellent predictors last time, which tells you the LibDems should gain both NE Fife and Edinburgh West.
Interesting - thanks for the tip!
Question for the Scots in the room - will we ever see Lib and Lab tactical voting for Con, if the SNP shape the election into a proxy referendum? Would that change things?
As many SLAB/SLID supporters who'd vote tactically to keep out the SNP would vote to keep out SCON !
SCON supporters would certainly vote tactically to keep out the SNP - might help SLID in a few seats but SLAB are beyond help !!
Kind of a shame they can't have Ukip 6.5, Green 3.25 mind you.
Assuming Labour levels of support holding up at around 44% in London, and in the low 50s in Manchester and Liverpool, back of the envelope gives Labour on 19% in the rest of England. Is that right?
Haven't done the maths, but would be very surprised if Labour even got 50% of the overall vote in Greater Manchester in 2015. Imagine they're polling 40% at most now.
2015 was 58.5% in the City of Manchester, only 46% in Greater Manchester.
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives would be very pleased with 3 seats. The 12 projected by Curtice based on the Panelbase survey would be extraordinary.
But even if the Tories and Lib Dems combined took 15, that would still leave the SNP with 44.
So long as (a) Scottish politics remains divided along Unionist/Nationalist lines, and (b) SLAB is still alive, the SNP are (mostly) untouchable.
When you factor in the shy Tories, surely numerous in Nat occupied Scotland, Curtice is downplaying Conservative prospects.
Hmmmm... I don't discount the possibility of a shy Tory vote by any means, but it would have to be huge to make a big dent in the SNP's Westminster contingent. And even if the Thatcher era resentment of the party is fading, you suspect that there's still quite a lot of that kind of sentiment about.
I'd be astonished if SNP+Green didn't equal at least 45% on polling day, and given that the Greens are about as much of a niche interest in Westminster elections North of the Border as they are South of it, that means the SNP getting 42% minimum. Against that, Conservative support is capped by the presence of the blocking group of residual Labour voters. 30% would be an excellent result for them.
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
I see your logic but the trouble with that bet is, since polling puts the Lib Dems and Labour absolutely nowhere in Scotland, what you're effectively saying when you say "SNP failing to win a majority" is "Tories to win a majority in Scotland" - doesn't seem like such a good bet when you put it that way.
I would be very surprised if the LibDems didn't win three seats in Scotland. The Holyrood elections were excellent predictors last time, which tells you the LibDems should gain both NE Fife and Edinburgh West.
Interesting - thanks for the tip!
Question for the Scots in the room - will we ever see Lib and Lab tactical voting for Con, if the SNP shape the election into a proxy referendum? Would that change things?
SCON supporters would certainly vote tactically to keep out the SNP - might help SLID in a few seats but SLAB are beyond help !!
If for no other reason than even if way behind SLAB before, SCON presumably think they could pip them now, I should think.
Kind of a shame they can't have Ukip 6.5, Green 3.25 mind you.
Assuming Labour levels of support holding up at around 44% in London, and in the low 50s in Manchester and Liverpool, back of the envelope gives Labour on 19% in the rest of England. Is that right?
Haven't done the maths, but would be very surprised if Labour even got 50% of the overall vote in Greater Manchester in 2015. Imagine they're polling 40% at most now.
2015 was 58.5% in the City of Manchester, only 46% in Greater Manchester.
Belgium and Swiss press is leaking result as usual...
Outre-mér that voted yesterday
Martinique: Mélenchon 27.36% Macron 25.53% Fillon 16.85% LePen 10.94% Hamon 9,75% Guyane: Mélenchon 24.72% LePen 24.29% Macron 18.75% Fillon 14.66% Hamon 5.69% Guadaloupe: : Macron 30.32% Mélenchon 23,99% Fillon 14.87% LePen 13.47% Hamon 9,72% St Pierre et Miquelon: : Mélenchon 35.45% LePen 18.16% Macron 17.97% Fillon 9,32% LHamon 8,24%
Waiting with trepidation for results from Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy
Friends and family of mine, usually not interested in politics one bit, bring up Corbyn and what an absolute loon he seems. Not singing the anthem and supporting the IRA is just not a good look for working class voters, even if theyre not particularly bothered about the Queen
I take your point about whether Trafalgar really saved England from threat of invasion in 1805/6. That must remain a matter for debate. What I think sets it above the Nile is that it shattered French and Spanish claims to seapower superiority not just for the remainder of the Napoleonic war but for the rest of the 19th century. Not until the early 20th century was the RNs mastery in the big oceans seriously challenged.
Mr. Fishing's new list seems very reasonable to me, though I am sure some would quibble over detail. I wonder what Mr. Dura_Ace, gent of this parish and former RN officer, would make of it.
Thanks ToryJim, Mr Meeks and Sean F for responses. I realize that the figures for London, Manchester and Liverpool are big ifs (based on the last mayoral votes figures where available). I was just running with the idea that Labour's vote is solid in the cities, and wondering what that meant for elsewhere.
The alternative explanation, as you all say, is that the vote is not so solid in the cities as a whole. That probably means that a lot of the constituencies in the outer rings are more vulnerable than previously thought.
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
I see your logic but the trouble with that bet is, since polling puts the Lib Dems and Labour absolutely nowhere in Scotland, what you're effectively saying when you say "SNP failing to win a majority" is "Tories to win a majority in Scotland" - doesn't seem like such a good bet when you put it that way.
I would be very surprised if the LibDems didn't win three seats in Scotland. The Holyrood elections were excellent predictors last time, which tells you the LibDems should gain both NE Fife and Edinburgh West.
Interesting - thanks for the tip!
Question for the Scots in the room - will we ever see Lib and Lab tactical voting for Con, if the SNP shape the election into a proxy referendum? Would that change things?
Yes - in the areas that are pro the Union ie north east and borders
Hard to see many labour voting Tory. Lib Dems are snake oil salesmen so would sell their granny if it profits them regardless of any principles.
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives would be very pleased with 3 seats. The 12 projected by Curtice based on the Panelbase survey would be extraordinary.
But even if the Tories and Lib Dems combined took 15, that would still leave the SNP with 44.
So long as (a) Scottish politics remains divided along Unionist/Nationalist lines, and (b) SLAB is still alive, the SNP are (mostly) untouchable.
When you factor in the shy Tories, surely numerous in Nat occupied Scotland, Curtice is downplaying Conservative prospects.
Hmmmm... I don't discount the possibility of a shy Tory vote by any means, but it would have to be huge to make a big dent in the SNP's Westminster contingent. And even if the Thatcher era resentment of the party is fading, you suspect that there's still quite a lot of that kind of sentiment about.
I'd be astonished if SNP+Green didn't equal at least 45% on polling day, and given that the Greens are about as much of a niche interest in Westminster elections North of the Border as they are South of it, that means the SNP getting 42% minimum. Against that, Conservative support is capped by the presence of the blocking group of residual Labour voters. 30% would be an excellent result for them.
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives would be very pleased with 3 seats. The 12 projected by Curtice based on the Panelbase survey would be extraordinary.
But even if the Tories and Lib Dems combined took 15, that would still leave the SNP with 44.
So long as (a) Scottish politics remains divided along Unionist/Nationalist lines, and (b) SLAB is still alive, the SNP are (mostly) untouchable.
My logic is as follows:
1. Let's assume the two Scottish polls are correct. Thus Scotland currently is roughly 43%/29% SNP/Tory. 2. Given the FPTP system and minimal non SNP/Tory strongholds, let's assume the Tories are likely to win a majority of Scottish seats if they win a plurality of votes. (A couple of LD seats benefit the bet, but are of relatively minor importance. SLAB's final seat slightly harms the bet, but is likewise minor.)
Question: Are the chances of Tory momentum increasing for a further ~6% swing more or less than 8% (12/1)? Conclusion: Given Tory strength and recent Scottish volatility, probably, though it remains unlikely.
CUCKOO, lets suppose my grandmother had cojones , was she my grandfather , answer is a resounding NO.
With no party organisation Macron has a mountain to climb. Fillon and Le Pen have the most motivated support. They should both get through as a result. A low turnout R2 could well deliver victory for Le Pen.
I take your point about whether Trafalgar really saved England from threat of invasion in 1805/6. That must remain a matter for debate. What I think sets it above the Nile is that it shattered French and Spanish claims to seapower superiority not just for the remainder of the Napoleonic war but for the rest of the 19th century. Not until the early 20th century was the RNs mastery in the big oceans seriously challenged.
Mr. Fishing's new list seems very reasonable to me, though I am sure some would quibble over detail. I wonder what Mr. Dura_Ace, gent of this parish and former RN officer, would make of it.
The French innovation of promoting from the ranks worked well in the army, up against officers of their opponents mostly appointed through privilege, wealth and connection. In the navy, where some knowledge of commanding a ship came in handy, it wasn't such a success.
Kind of a shame they can't have Ukip 6.5, Green 3.25 mind you.
Assuming Labour levels of support holding up at around 44% in London, and in the low 50s in Manchester and Liverpool, back of the envelope gives Labour on 19% in the rest of England. Is that right?
Haven't done the maths, but would be very surprised if Labour even got 50% of the overall vote in Greater Manchester in 2015. Imagine they're polling 40% at most now.
2015 was 58.5% in the City of Manchester, only 46% in Greater Manchester.
Cheers. Surprised only a 12% drop tbh.
Even though Labour polled around the same in Greater Manchester in 2015 as they did in 2005, the geography of the vote has changed. The gap in 2005 was 52.5% to 47%, so the gap is increasing. Labour gaining in Manchester and Oldham, loosing elsewhere.
Belgium and Swiss press is leaking result as usual...
Outre-mér that voted yesterday
Martinique: Mélenchon 27.36% Macron 25.53% Fillon 16.85% LePen 10.94% Hamon 9,75% Guyane: Mélenchon 24.72% LePen 24.29% Macron 18.75% Fillon 14.66% Hamon 5.69% Guadaloupe: : Macron 30.32% Mélenchon 23,99% Fillon 14.87% LePen 13.47% Hamon 9,72% St Pierre et Miquelon: : Mélenchon 35.45% LePen 18.16% Macron 17.97% Fillon 9,32% LHamon 8,24%
Waiting with trepidation for results from Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy
The regional breakdowns suggest that there is very little swing from Lab-Con in the already Tory dominated south. The swing is the remainder of the country.
Beware it might be total bollocks (there's a lot about) but the French-speaking broadcaster in Belgium has a list of results for some of overseas France.
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives would be very pleased with 3 seats. The 12 projected by Curtice based on the Panelbase survey would be extraordinary.
But even if the Tories and Lib Dems combined took 15, that would still leave the SNP with 44.
So long as (a) Scottish politics remains divided along Unionist/Nationalist lines, and (b) SLAB is still alive, the SNP are (mostly) untouchable.
When you factor in the shy Tories, surely numerous in Nat occupied Scotland, Curtice is downplaying Conservative prospects.
Hmmmm... I don't discount the possibility of a shy Tory vote by any means, but it would have to be huge to make a big dent in the SNP's Westminster contingent. And even if the Thatcher era resentment of the party is fading, you suspect that there's still quite a lot of that kind of sentiment about.
I'd be astonished if SNP+Green didn't equal at least 45% on polling day, and given that the Greens are about as much of a niche interest in Westminster elections North of the Border as they are South of it, that means the SNP getting 42% minimum. Against that, Conservative support is capped by the presence of the blocking group of residual Labour voters. 30% would be an excellent result for them.
30% would be a miracle
I'll be dancing the Gay Gordons
Fat Boy Slim is gone
More like round and round the mulberry bush, will be no Tory plague in Scotland
Kind of a shame they can't have Ukip 6.5, Green 3.25 mind you.
Assuming Labour levels of support holding up at around 44% in London, and in the low 50s in Manchester and Liverpool, back of the envelope gives Labour on 19% in the rest of England. Is that right?
Haven't done the maths, but would be very surprised if Labour even got 50% of the overall vote in Greater Manchester in 2015. Imagine they're polling 40% at most now.
2015 was 58.5% in the City of Manchester, only 46% in Greater Manchester.
So putting Manchester and Liverpool in the mid 40s% and London high 30s% gives rest of England at 21%. That must be close to extinction event levels outside the biggest cities.
Is there are market for Labour England seats outside the inner cities?
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives would be very pleased with 3 seats. The 12 projected by Curtice based on the Panelbase survey would be extraordinary.
But even if the Tories and Lib Dems combined took 15, that would still leave the SNP with 44.
So long as (a) Scottish politics remains divided along Unionist/Nationalist lines, and (b) SLAB is still alive, the SNP are (mostly) untouchable.
When you factor in the shy Tories, surely numerous in Nat occupied Scotland, Curtice is downplaying Conservative prospects.
Hmmmm... I don't discount the possibility of a shy Tory vote by any means, but it would have to be huge to make a big dent in the SNP's Westminster contingent. And even if the Thatcher era resentment of the party is fading, you suspect that there's still quite a lot of that kind of sentiment about.
I'd be astonished if SNP+Green didn't equal at least 45% on polling day, and given that the Greens are about as much of a niche interest in Westminster elections North of the Border as they are South of it, that means the SNP getting 42% minimum. Against that, Conservative support is capped by the presence of the blocking group of residual Labour voters. 30% would be an excellent result for them.
30% would be a miracle
I'll be dancing the Gay Gordons
Fat Boy Slim is gone
More like round and round the mulberry bush, will be no Tory plague in Scotland
cough up malc
at this rate the Nats will be lucky to get in to double figures - that's votes not MPs :-)
Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.
Plaid pretty well nailed on. Wales opinion poll out tomorrow will confirm.
The Welsh poll tomorrow is likely going to show no Labour seats west or north of the Valleys. Which will be horrific enough. But if Labour truly melts down, and the valleys aren't ultra safe, which seats there might also fall? Would welcome your thoughts....
Torfaen.
Interesting call. If the Tories can mop up the UKIP vote and Labour does drop markedly, that could be a big win for the blues. Labour has been lucky in the past that they have had an evenly split opposition.
(I'm just looking to find my Gower equivalent win from last time! Torfaen might be it....)
Weren't we told that the UKIP vote was not all 'Tories on holiday' and that they were a danger to Labour?
Beware it might be total bollocks (there's a lot about) but the French-speaking broadcaster in Belgium has a list of results for some of overseas France.
Belgium and Swiss press is leaking result as usual...
Outre-mér that voted yesterday
Martinique: Mélenchon 27.36% Macron 25.53% Fillon 16.85% LePen 10.94% Hamon 9,75% Guyane: Mélenchon 24.72% LePen 24.29% Macron 18.75% Fillon 14.66% Hamon 5.69% Guadaloupe: : Macron 30.32% Mélenchon 23,99% Fillon 14.87% LePen 13.47% Hamon 9,72% St Pierre et Miquelon: : Mélenchon 35.45% LePen 18.16% Macron 17.97% Fillon 9,32% LHamon 8,24%
Waiting with trepidation for results from Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy
If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.
Not a prayer. The Conservatives would be very pleased with 3 seats. The 12 projected by Curtice based on the Panelbase survey would be extraordinary.
But even if the Tories and Lib Dems combined took 15, that would still leave the SNP with 44.
So long as (a) Scottish politics remains divided along Unionist/Nationalist lines, and (b) SLAB is still alive, the SNP are (mostly) untouchable.
My logic is as follows:
1. Let's assume the two Scottish polls are correct. Thus Scotland currently is roughly 43%/29% SNP/Tory. 2. Given the FPTP system and minimal non SNP/Tory strongholds, let's assume the Tories are likely to win a majority of Scottish seats if they win a plurality of votes. (A couple of LD seats benefit the bet, but are of relatively minor importance. SLAB's final seat slightly harms the bet, but is likewise minor.)
Question: Are the chances of Tory momentum increasing for a further ~6% swing more or less than 8% (12/1)? Conclusion: Given Tory strength and recent Scottish volatility, probably, though it remains unlikely.
CUCKOO, lets suppose my grandmother had cojones , was she my grandfather , answer is a resounding NO.
I made two assumptions: that the polls are right and that the party with the most votes will win the most seats. The first is unknowable, since there's still 6 weeks of campaigning. How much do you want to bet on the second?
Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.
Plaid pretty well nailed on. Wales opinion poll out tomorrow will confirm.
The Welsh poll tomorrow is likely going to show no Labour seats west or north of the Valleys. Which will be horrific enough. But if Labour truly melts down, and the valleys aren't ultra safe, which seats there might also fall? Would welcome your thoughts....
Torfaen.
Interesting call. If the Tories can mop up the UKIP vote and Labour does drop markedly, that could be a big win for the blues. Labour has been lucky in the past that they have had an evenly split opposition.
(I'm just looking to find my Gower equivalent win from last time! Torfaen might be it....)
Weren't we told that the UKIP vote was not all 'Tories on holiday' and that they were a danger to Labour?
Someone suggested yesterday UKIP acted as a bit of a gateway for former Lab to now switch to Con.
Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.
Plaid pretty well nailed on. Wales opinion poll out tomorrow will confirm.
The Welsh poll tomorrow is likely going to show no Labour seats west or north of the Valleys. Which will be horrific enough. But if Labour truly melts down, and the valleys aren't ultra safe, which seats there might also fall? Would welcome your thoughts....
Torfaen.
Interesting call. If the Tories can mop up the UKIP vote and Labour does drop markedly, that could be a big win for the blues. Labour has been lucky in the past that they have had an evenly split opposition.
(I'm just looking to find my Gower equivalent win from last time! Torfaen might be it....)
Weren't we told that the UKIP vote was not all 'Tories on holiday' and that they were a danger to Labour?
I think that that was a working assumption based on the idea that UKIP were drawing support from both Tories and Labour and, hence, when the UKIP vote unravelled, their voters would go back 'home'. However, the latest polls are undermining the second part of that theory. It appears that there is significant Labour to UKIP to Tory traffic. Thanks, Corbyn.
Belgium and Swiss press is leaking result as usual...
Outre-mér that voted yesterday
Martinique: Mélenchon 27.36% Macron 25.53% Fillon 16.85% LePen 10.94% Hamon 9,75% Guyane: Mélenchon 24.72% LePen 24.29% Macron 18.75% Fillon 14.66% Hamon 5.69% Guadaloupe: : Macron 30.32% Mélenchon 23,99% Fillon 14.87% LePen 13.47% Hamon 9,72% St Pierre et Miquelon: : Mélenchon 35.45% LePen 18.16% Macron 17.97% Fillon 9,32% LHamon 8,24%
Waiting with trepidation for results from Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy
OK but, do we have a reasonable comparison with an earlier election? the others may not have stood but how did Le Pen do last time?
Belgium and Swiss press is leaking result as usual...
Outre-mér that voted yesterday
Martinique: Mélenchon 27.36% Macron 25.53% Fillon 16.85% LePen 10.94% Hamon 9,75% Guyane: Mélenchon 24.72% LePen 24.29% Macron 18.75% Fillon 14.66% Hamon 5.69% Guadaloupe: : Macron 30.32% Mélenchon 23,99% Fillon 14.87% LePen 13.47% Hamon 9,72% St Pierre et Miquelon: : Mélenchon 35.45% LePen 18.16% Macron 17.97% Fillon 9,32% LHamon 8,24%
Waiting with trepidation for results from Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy
How does that compare with 2012?
The left are up. Melanchon absurdly so. Fillon has underperformed. Le Pen ahead but perhaps not quite enough.
Ridiculous to interpolate to the whole country but if so it's Melanchon v Macron or Le Pen.
Belgium and Swiss press is leaking result as usual...
Outre-mér that voted yesterday
Martinique: Mélenchon 27.36% Macron 25.53% Fillon 16.85% LePen 10.94% Hamon 9,75% Guyane: Mélenchon 24.72% LePen 24.29% Macron 18.75% Fillon 14.66% Hamon 5.69% Guadaloupe: : Macron 30.32% Mélenchon 23,99% Fillon 14.87% LePen 13.47% Hamon 9,72% St Pierre et Miquelon: : Mélenchon 35.45% LePen 18.16% Macron 17.97% Fillon 9,32% LHamon 8,24%
Waiting with trepidation for results from Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy
How does that compare with 2012?
The left are up. Melanchon absurdly so. Fillon has underperformed. Le Pen ahead but perhaps not quite enough.
Ridiculous to interpolate to the whole country but if so it's Melanchon v Macron or Le Pen.
And this was supposed to be the right's to lose when it started. Poor.
Belgium and Swiss press is leaking result as usual...
Outre-mér that voted yesterday
Martinique: Mélenchon 27.36% Macron 25.53% Fillon 16.85% LePen 10.94% Hamon 9,75% Guyane: Mélenchon 24.72% LePen 24.29% Macron 18.75% Fillon 14.66% Hamon 5.69% Guadaloupe: : Macron 30.32% Mélenchon 23,99% Fillon 14.87% LePen 13.47% Hamon 9,72% St Pierre et Miquelon: : Mélenchon 35.45% LePen 18.16% Macron 17.97% Fillon 9,32% LHamon 8,24%
Waiting with trepidation for results from Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy
How does that compare with 2012?
If Fillon is down ~9% on Sarkozy everywhere, that's 17% for him. Le Pen up ~8% on 2012 (though this is on 4 tiny samples and very variable) would give her 26%.
So this suggests Le Pen wins first round, Fillon doesn't make it. But god knows how well these shifts correlate with the national picture.
The French innovation of promoting from the ranks worked well in the army, up against officers of their opponents mostly appointed through privilege, wealth and connection. In the navy, where some knowledge of commanding a ship came in handy, it wasn't such a success.
Also, because the RN dominated the seas, while the French were mostly blockaded, they could never practice and drill in wartime conditions on the ocean as the RN could. Sort of reminds me of Corbyn's habit of debating with people he agrees with in safe spaces, rather than trying to convince those he doesn't.
Belgium and Swiss press is leaking result as usual...
Outre-mér that voted yesterday
Martinique: Mélenchon 27.36% Macron 25.53% Fillon 16.85% LePen 10.94% Hamon 9,75% Guyane: Mélenchon 24.72% LePen 24.29% Macron 18.75% Fillon 14.66% Hamon 5.69% Guadaloupe: : Macron 30.32% Mélenchon 23,99% Fillon 14.87% LePen 13.47% Hamon 9,72% St Pierre et Miquelon: : Mélenchon 35.45% LePen 18.16% Macron 17.97% Fillon 9,32% LHamon 8,24%
Waiting with trepidation for results from Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy
Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.
Plaid pretty well nailed on. Wales opinion poll out tomorrow will confirm.
The Welsh poll tomorrow is likely going to show no Labour seats west or north of the Valleys. Which will be horrific enough. But if Labour truly melts down, and the valleys aren't ultra safe, which seats there might also fall? Would welcome your thoughts....
Torfaen.
Interesting call. If the Tories can mop up the UKIP vote and Labour does drop markedly, that could be a big win for the blues. Labour has been lucky in the past that they have had an evenly split opposition.
(I'm just looking to find my Gower equivalent win from last time! Torfaen might be it....)
Weren't we told that the UKIP vote was not all 'Tories on holiday' and that they were a danger to Labour?
Someone suggested yesterday UKIP acted as a bit of a gateway for former Lab to now switch to Con.
Switcher Numbers to Con (across ICM, ComRes, Survation, Yougov)
Labour Range: 6-13% Lib Dem range: 13-22% UKIP range: 34-48%
-140 Spanish Armada -120 Sluys -100 Battle of the Nile -80 Trafalgar -60 Taranto -40 Dogger Bank -20 The Saints 0 Cape Finisterre +20 Sinking of the Prince of Wales and the Repulse +40 Beachy Head
Wasn't the Spanish Armada down to good luck, unforced errors by the Spanish, and a fair wind?
Sexologists have long known bestiality/zoophilia is a very common female fantasy (much more common in women than in men). Bears, stallions and gorillas are the usual objects of desire. This is probably because they have features of "hyper masculinity".
There are hints of this in Disney's Beauty and the Beast, mentioned yesterday. After the Beast is transformed into Prince Charming, Belle (Emma Watson) looks at him and says "would you mind growing a beard?" He smiles at her - and growls. Making her giggle in an aroused way. The entire exchange implies, very clearly, that she rather fancied him as a Beast, horns and all.
I guess, but I was thinking more why anti-gay people, male and female, seem to come out with the bestiality comparisons so much, rather than merely zoophilia (I understand there is quite the niche market in, er, unconventional erotic literature of that description).
Plus people fantasize about shagging aliens, not all that necessarily very human looking aliens, all the time. The Mass Effect series is practically built on the idea.
I think it is because they are looking for something that is generally regarded as taboo and smearing by association. A dog whistle if you like
Comments
He's also, barring a Houdini-like act of electoral escapology, utterly doomed.
The man's liable to become collateral damage in what is to come, but such is life. Labour, as an institution, has transgressed. It must be punished.
Mr. O, Mr. Rabbit's right about the Golden Rule (only bet what you can afford to lose).
The way polling stands, there will be some odd results, one way or the other.
Edited extra bit: time for me to be off, but I'll probably back to enjoy/suffer the French exit poll.
https://electionsetc.com/2017/04/22/another-labour-meltdown/
I'd be astonished if SNP+Green didn't equal at least 45% on polling day, and given that the Greens are about as much of a niche interest in Westminster elections North of the Border as they are South of it, that means the SNP getting 42% minimum. Against that, Conservative support is capped by the presence of the blocking group of residual Labour voters. 30% would be an excellent result for them.
To push your metaphor perhaps the Lib Dems can be considered as the Eastern Roman Empire, if this is a total wipe out for Labour then it could be 476 when Odoacer ended the western roman empire, but instead of declaring himself Emprea, instead he sent the crown and all the symbolic stuff to the empire in the East. So if Lab come out smaller than Lib Dem and Lib Dem become the official opposition, this would be the appropriate metaphor.
Perhaps this election could be at worst the 410 sacking of Rome?
By the same token you include Jutland as a positive win when I should have thought it was a strategic success but a tactical failure.
I think I would replace Convoy PQ17, which was in the great scheme of things not important, with Jutland and Insert The Saintes in the -20 slot (that battle being both a strategic and tactical success).
(I'm just looking to find my Gower equivalent win from last time! Torfaen might be it....)
Quiberon Bay should also be included.
As should Chesapeake Bay among the defeats.
- the strategic impact of Trafalgar: hadn't Napoleon already broken camp and turned east to deal with the Austrians and Russians by the time he got news of Trafalgar? Whereas the Nile conclusively doomed his Egyptian campaign and the French threat to India.
- I take your point about Jutland. I was thinking about the tactical results of the battle fleet clash, rather than the battle cruiser engagements, as the former was far more important. I agree with the substitution you propose. Let's leave Jutland out as it's (still) too controversial and replace Convoy PQ17 with the sinking of the Prince of Wales and replace the latter with the Battle of Beachy Head. I've also inserted the Spanish Armada and Sluys. The list is now:
-140 Spanish Armada
-120 Sluys
-100 Battle of the Nile
-80 Trafalgar
-60 Taranto
-40 Dogger Bank
-20 The Saints
0 Cape Finisterre
+20 Sinking of the Prince of Wales and the Repulse
+40 Beachy Head
https://www.rtbf.be/info/monde/detail_presidentielle-francaise-la-participation-a-midi-direct?id=9587638
French Guiana (where all the protests have been recently) is rather, er, interesting;
Résultats définitifs en Guyane:
Mélenchon 24,72
Le Pen 24,29
Macron 18,75
Fillon 14,66
Hamon 5,69
...
I think the pundits and current leadership classification of the likes of SLAB & SLID as Unionist parties is misplaced. I'd envisage the greater the Tory landslide the rump of these 2 parties in Scotland will be faced with a hard choice - I think what remains of SLAB will need to soften it's stance on independence to have any hope of reviving itself in an FPTP system.
Plus people fantasize about shagging aliens, not all that necessarily very human looking aliens, all the time. The Mass Effect series is practically built on the idea.
There's also, of course, Swansea - but under present circumstances I'd only count Swansea East as being safe for Labour. Swansea West is vulnerable to a 'unite the Right' vote, given the size of the Ukip count. The Lib Dems also used to have a good vote there pre-2015; if they recover primarily at Labour's expense then the Labour candidate might be in trouble.
Torfaen is the one to watch if there is a proper Labour bloodbath. It's the Eastern-most outpost of the Valleys seats, adjacent to the Newports (both vulnerable) and Monmouth (safe Tory.) The Conservatives were second there last time, and Con+Ukip was only about 1,000 votes short of the winning Labour total.
It would require almost an 11% swing, but under current circumstances you have to reckon that's not entirely out of the question.
Question for the Scots in the room - will we ever see Lib and Lab tactical voting for Con, if the SNP shape the election into a proxy referendum? Would that change things?
1. Let's assume the two Scottish polls are correct. Thus Scotland currently is roughly 43%/29% SNP/Tory.
2. Given the FPTP system and minimal non SNP/Tory strongholds, let's assume the Tories are likely to win a majority of Scottish seats if they win a plurality of votes.
(A couple of LD seats benefit the bet, but are of relatively minor importance. SLAB's final seat slightly harms the bet, but is likewise minor.)
Question: Are the chances of Tory momentum increasing for a further ~6% swing more or less than 8% (12/1)?
Conclusion: Given Tory strength and recent Scottish volatility, probably, though it remains unlikely.
If Labour gave in on independence then it would cease to have any function - not that I'm sure that it has any function as it is, except as a repository for the votes of its own surviving force-of-habit supporters. It might as well tell its members to join the SNP, and dissolve itself.
The Liberal Democrats are a more avowedly Unionist party and, like the Tories, do best in No-leaning areas. They have no incentive to change.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Sandwich_(1217)
is preferable to Sluys.
And you really need Quiberon Bay in as well.
And IMO to replace Beachy Head with Chesapeake Bay.
Or I need to adjust my betting position.
Outre-mér that voted yesterday
Martinique: Mélenchon 27.36% Macron 25.53% Fillon 16.85% LePen 10.94% Hamon 9,75%
Guyane: Mélenchon 24.72% LePen 24.29% Macron 18.75% Fillon 14.66% Hamon 5.69%
Guadaloupe: : Macron 30.32% Mélenchon 23,99% Fillon 14.87% LePen 13.47% Hamon 9,72%
St Pierre et Miquelon: : Mélenchon 35.45% LePen 18.16% Macron 17.97% Fillon 9,32% LHamon 8,24%
Waiting with trepidation for results from Saint Martin and Saint Barthélemy
LDs initially look good for 15-20% across London and the South. For context they were 22% in London and c.28% across the South in 2010.
SCON supporters would certainly vote tactically to keep out the SNP - might help SLID in a few seats but SLAB are beyond help !!
Gents,
I take your point about whether Trafalgar really saved England from threat of invasion in 1805/6. That must remain a matter for debate. What I think sets it above the Nile is that it shattered French and Spanish claims to seapower superiority not just for the remainder of the Napoleonic war but for the rest of the 19th century. Not until the early 20th century was the RNs mastery in the big oceans seriously challenged.
Mr. Fishing's new list seems very reasonable to me, though I am sure some would quibble over detail. I wonder what Mr. Dura_Ace, gent of this parish and former RN officer, would make of it.
I have some pretty decent constituency bets to cover my arse.
The alternative explanation, as you all say, is that the vote is not so solid in the cities as a whole. That probably means that a lot of the constituencies in the outer rings are more vulnerable than previously thought.
Fat Boy Slim is gone
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/856118899208855552
Is there are market for Labour England seats outside the inner cities?
at this rate the Nats will be lucky to get in to double figures - that's votes not MPs :-)
Martinique: Marine is up 7 points, Fillon is down almost 9 points, Melenchon+Macron+Hamon are 3 points up on Melenchon+Hollande
Guyane: LePen up 14 points. Fillon down 9 again. Melenchon+Macron+Hamon are 2 points down on Melenchon+Holland
St Pierre: Marine 3 points up. Fillon more than 10 down.Melenchon+Macron+Hamon are 10 points up on Hollande+Melenchon
Ridiculous to interpolate to the whole country but if so it's Melanchon v Macron or Le Pen.
So this suggests Le Pen wins first round, Fillon doesn't make it. But god knows how well these shifts correlate with the national picture.
Also, because the RN dominated the seas, while the French were mostly blockaded, they could never practice and drill in wartime conditions on the ocean as the RN could. Sort of reminds me of Corbyn's habit of debating with people he agrees with in safe spaces, rather than trying to convince those he doesn't.
Labour Range: 6-13%
Lib Dem range: 13-22%
UKIP range: 34-48%
Um... I see your point...