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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marine Le Pen’s best chance of becoming President is if she faces Fillon in the 2nd round

Today the people of France are going to the polls in the first round of the Presidential Election. The polling stations close at 1900 BST and we should get the first exit polls shortly afterwards.

Read the full story here

OldKingCole

Second like the LD’s (I hope!)

peter_from_putney

Second ..... aargh!

kle4

Hoping for Fillion-Le Pen. Fillion gets me the best payday.

HaroldO

Just off to get some shopping, but a little confession first; I have never actually bet on anything. I have won raffles and quizzes, but never actually bet on an event.

For a five pound stake (times are hard, the damn boiler died a few weeks ago and that's after getting burgled at the end of last year and needing an alarm putting in, and cameras) what would be a good bet to break me in?

TheWhiteRabbit

HaroldO said:

Just off to get some shopping, but a little confession first; I have never actually bet on anything. I have won raffles and quizzes, but never actually bet on an event.

For a five pound stake (times are hard, the damn boiler died a few weeks ago and that's after getting burgled at the end of last year and needing an alarm putting in, and cameras) what would be a good bet to break me in?

Well, don't bet anything you can't afford to lose. Even if it is £5, if £5 is a lot.

Personally what I did two yeas ago is split my £5 into 5 £1 stakes, and find five interesting bets, with a traditional bookie. For example I had £1 on Balls losing his seat. £1 on the Lib Dem holding up. £1 on a local seat (Colchester). I can't remember the others.

DavidL

It's stunning what a terrible choice this is.

Fillon under criminal investigation for defrauding the taxpayer of substantial sums of money.

Le Pen whose main selling point is that she is slightly less insane than her father.

Macron, a man who married his teacher and is allegedly living in a secret gay relationship (and who doesn't even have a party to support him in Parliament).

Melenchon who makes Corbyn look like a rather wet Lib Dem.

Is this really the best France could do?

peter_from_putney

What comes across in the French polls is jst how close they have been to each other for many weeks on end. Even the more recent steady climb of Jean-Luc Melenchon has failed to disturb the balance between the leading trio to any meaningful extent.

Btw .... when can we expect to learn of the first results?. I hear of massive queues to vote - I'm rather assuming this might be bath news for the far left and far right candidates and by the same token goodish news for Fillon and Macron - am I likely to be correct?

hellogoodbye

Anyone know any betting websites which allow to do the equivalent of Accumulators on general election constituencies? I can only find those which do singles

MyBurningEars

One for Dr Fox

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-39684006

My opinion of Claudio Ranieri has only gone up since seeing the inside of his (former) house!

Could hardly believe he lived in a £695k place - where's the bling at??

Beverley_C

HaroldO said:

Just off to get some shopping, but a little confession first; I have never actually bet on anything. I have won raffles and quizzes, but never actually bet on an event.

For a five pound stake (times are hard, the damn boiler died a few weeks ago and that's after getting burgled at the end of last year and needing an alarm putting in, and cameras) what would be a good bet to break me in?

Tories to win 2017 GE.

rcs1000

hellogoodbye said:

Anyone know any betting websites which allow to do the equivalent of Accumulators on general election constituencies? I can only find those which do singles

You won't find them, because outcomes are correlated. Bookmakers (sadly) aren't stupid.

Floater

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HaroldO said:

Just off to get some shopping, but a little confession first; I have never actually bet on anything. I have won raffles and quizzes, but never actually bet on an event.

For a five pound stake (times are hard, the damn boiler died a few weeks ago and that's after getting burgled at the end of last year and needing an alarm putting in, and cameras) what would be a good bet to break me in?

Well, don't bet anything you can't afford to lose. Even if it is £5, if £5 is a lot.

Personally what I did two yeas ago is split my £5 into 5 £1 stakes, and find five interesting bets, with a traditional bookie. For example I had £1 on Balls losing his seat. £1 on the Lib Dem holding up. £1 on a local seat (Colchester). I can't remember the others.

Did you bet on a Conservative victory here in Colchester? The mood music from the Lib Dem councillors pre election led me to the opinion they were in trouble and poor old Sir Bob looked shell shocked on the day itself.

Mark Senior however assured me they had it in the bag.......

OldKingCole

OldKingCole said:

Second like the LD’s (I hope!)

When I posted this there was another post, hence second. Now it’s vanished. Either it’s weird or I’m seeing visions.

Maybe believing the LD’s will be second overall IS seeing a vision!

Peter_the_Punter

hellogoodbye said:

Anyone know any betting websites which allow to do the equivalent of Accumulators on general election constituencies? I can only find those which do singles

There are none, and if you happened to find one you shouldn't bet on it. They are clearly related contingencies, so any accumulator would be automatically void.

peter_from_putney

DavidL said:

It's stunning what a terrible choice this is.

Fillon under criminal investigation for defrauding the taxpayer of substantial sums of money.

Le Pen whose main selling point is that she is slightly less insane than her father.

Macron, a man who married his teacher and is allegedly living in a secret gay relationship (and who doesn't even have a party to support him in Parliament).

Melenchon who makes Corbyn look like a rather wet Lib Dem.

Is this really the best France could do?

An interesting summary of the four candidates David!

TheWhiteRabbit

Floater said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HaroldO said:

Just off to get some shopping, but a little confession first; I have never actually bet on anything. I have won raffles and quizzes, but never actually bet on an event.

For a five pound stake (times are hard, the damn boiler died a few weeks ago and that's after getting burgled at the end of last year and needing an alarm putting in, and cameras) what would be a good bet to break me in?

Well, don't bet anything you can't afford to lose. Even if it is £5, if £5 is a lot.

Personally what I did two yeas ago is split my £5 into 5 £1 stakes, and find five interesting bets, with a traditional bookie. For example I had £1 on Balls losing his seat. £1 on the Lib Dem holding up. £1 on a local seat (Colchester). I can't remember the others.

Did you bet on a Conservative victory here in Colchester? The mood music from the Lib Dem councillors pre election led me to the opinion they were in trouble and poor old Sir Bob looked shell shocked on the day itself.

Mark Senior however assured me they had it in the bag.......

On the day yes. But I'd actually given tim long odds on a Tory gain, as yet has never asked me to pay up.

Omnium

Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.

rcs1000

peter_from_putney said:

What comes across in the French polls is jst how close they have been to each other for many weeks on end. Even the more recent steady climb of Jean-Luc Melenchon has failed to disturb the balance between the leading trio to any meaningful extent.

Btw .... when can we expect to learn of the first results?. I hear of massive queues to vote - I'm rather assuming this might be bath news for the far left and far right candidates and by the same token goodish news for Fillon and Macron - am I likely to be correct?

It was the rise in turnout between round one and two that knocked MLP off her pedestal in the 2015 Regional Elections.

That being said, turnout in the first round of the French Presidential elections is usually about 80% in any case. How much higher can it be?

isam

Is Tory Majority between 50-100 value at 3/1?

Beverley_C

OldKingCole said:

OldKingCole said:

Second like the LD’s (I hope!)

When I posted this there was another post, hence second. Now it’s vanished. Either it’s weird or I’m seeing visions.

Maybe believing the LD’s will be second overall IS seeing a vision!

It happened to me a while ago. I was first then I was not. Looking at the site from Vanilla there were two threads with the same title published about a minute apart and my lonely FIRST was in the "orphan" thread. I presume that some editing and a republish of the thread happened.

Go to Vanilla and look at your postings

DavidL

peter_from_putney said:

DavidL said:

It's stunning what a terrible choice this is.

Fillon under criminal investigation for defrauding the taxpayer of substantial sums of money.

Le Pen whose main selling point is that she is slightly less insane than her father.

Macron, a man who married his teacher and is allegedly living in a secret gay relationship (and who doesn't even have a party to support him in Parliament).

Melenchon who makes Corbyn look like a rather wet Lib Dem.

Is this really the best France could do?

An interesting summary of the four candidates David!

Well yes, but who on earth do you vote for? It makes Trump/Clinton look like Lincoln/Douglas.

MonikerDiCanio

It's high time France had a female President.

Sandpit

FPT

BigRich said:

HaroldO said:

kle4 said:

Obvious Joke

Headline: Corbyn wants 'very different' country

Answer: Venezuela

Another rich seam of criticism to be mined against him there, with his prognostications on their success still ongoing until relatively recently. Then silence when he finally realised what they were actually doing.

Is there much video footage of Corbyn talking up Venezuela?

If I was running the Tory Campaign*, I would have focused on all the nice things he has sead about it in the past, looking at the protests in that country over the last week, there could well be a popular uprising and removal of the government, in the next month, if that happens it will taint all those who talked kindly of that government, in the same way that the fall of the Berlin wall, tainted all the Communists in the west for a generation.

* looking at the opinion poles they show no singe of needing my help or advise, admittedly

Your starter for 10.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HDaUHEP4wdI

Beverley_C

Omnium said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.

Then is it not a bit late to be seeking second opinions?

DavidL

isam said:

Is Tory Majority between 50-100 value at 3/1?

Risk that the majority is over the top end of that band is clearly increasing. Looked really good a week ago.

rcs1000

DavidL said:

It's stunning what a terrible choice this is.

Fillon under criminal investigation for defrauding the taxpayer of substantial sums of money.

Le Pen whose main selling point is that she is slightly less insane than her father.

Macron, a man who married his teacher and is allegedly living in a secret gay relationship (and who doesn't even have a party to support him in Parliament).

Melenchon who makes Corbyn look like a rather wet Lib Dem.

Is this really the best France could do?

Fillon is a crook (who does at least recognise that France's biggest problem is its schloretic labour market).

Macron is a Blair-eque centrist (who does at least recognise that France's biggest problem is its schloretic labour market).

Le Pen thinks the biggest problem with France is the excessively business friendly environment.

Melenchon thinks that all income about EUR75,000 should be taxed at 100%.

peter_from_putney

isam said:

Is Tory Majority between 50-100 value at 3/1?

It's not bad value ..... as a saver.

Scrapheap_as_was

OldKingCole said:

OldKingCole said:

Second like the LD’s (I hope!)

When I posted this there was another post, hence second. Now it’s vanished. Either it’s weird or I’m seeing visions.

Maybe believing the LD’s will be second overall IS seeing a vision!

It's a conspiracy... I was first on a TSE thread last night but my 'phew' disappeared and RobD took 1st and 2nd place.... it was that kind of day y'day.

brokenwheel

Turnout at midday is basically no different to 2012. Though i do hear some interesting differential.

https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/856085952929968128

IanB2

OldKingCole said:

OldKingCole said:

Second like the LD’s (I hope!)

When I posted this there was another post, hence second. Now it’s vanished. Either it’s weird or I’m seeing visions.

Maybe believing the LD’s will be second overall IS seeing a vision!

Maybe they too will come first by accident?

Morris_Dancer

I'm not sure I buy this polling.

Melenchon would get the pro-EU side to back Le Pen. I think Fillon would get far more tactical votes.

Hopefully we don't find out.

Mr. Goodbye, welcome to pb.com.

Mr. O, most of my constituency bets are £2.

Stakes of a fiver? Luxury!

Alistair

hellogoodbye said:

Anyone know any betting websites which allow to do the equivalent of Accumulators on general election constituencies? I can only find those which do singles

No one will.

Scrapheap_as_was

Omnium said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.

we may have a similar 'run' tonight on Welsh seats depending on the poll to come there - only thing is that the twit-teases suggest parties all doing ok other than one (hmm... I wonder who that is) .. so that might mean Ynys Mon not so appealing if that's right - I'd looked at that too.

IanB2

Beverley_C said:

OldKingCole said:

OldKingCole said:

Second like the LD’s (I hope!)

When I posted this there was another post, hence second. Now it’s vanished. Either it’s weird or I’m seeing visions.

Maybe believing the LD’s will be second overall IS seeing a vision!

It happened to me a while ago. I was first then I was not. Looking at the site from Vanilla there were two threads with the same title published about a minute apart and my lonely FIRST was in the "orphan" thread. I presume that some editing and a republish of the thread happened.

Go to Vanilla and look at your postings

I always wondered how they did it....

Black_Rook

Omnium said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.

Not beyond the bounds of possibility with the size of the 2015 Ukip vote.

The Labour incumbent has been fending off Plaid valiantly for four elections on the bounce. If the bleed of Labour votes to Plaid is limited, and the Tories bag some Labour defectors and the bulk of the Ukip support, then they could come through the middle.

OldKingCole

IanB2 said:

OldKingCole said:

OldKingCole said:

Second like the LD’s (I hope!)

When I posted this there was another post, hence second. Now it’s vanished. Either it’s weird or I’m seeing visions.

Maybe believing the LD’s will be second overall IS seeing a vision!

Maybe they too will come first by accident?

Ian, we can but dream.

DavidL

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

It's stunning what a terrible choice this is.

Fillon under criminal investigation for defrauding the taxpayer of substantial sums of money.

Le Pen whose main selling point is that she is slightly less insane than her father.

Macron, a man who married his teacher and is allegedly living in a secret gay relationship (and who doesn't even have a party to support him in Parliament).

Melenchon who makes Corbyn look like a rather wet Lib Dem.

Is this really the best France could do?

Fillon is a crook (who does at least recognise that France's biggest problem is its schloretic labour market).

Macron is a Blair-eque centrist (who does at least recognise that France's biggest problem is its schloretic labour market).

Le Pen thinks the biggest problem with France is the excessively business friendly environment.

Melenchon thinks that all income about EUR75,000 should be taxed at 100%.

Macron is a failed minister from the administration of one of the most catastrophically unpopular Presidents in history with an, um, interesting back story. And he probably is the best choice. Remarkable.

IanB2

The betting question now is surely whether, in this longer than usual campaign, we will at some point see a Tory wobble? That would make selling some of the very high expectations for the Tories a reasonable trading proposition.

ThreeQuidder

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Omnium said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.

we may have a similar 'run' tonight on Welsh seats depending on the poll to come there - only thing is that the twit-teases suggest parties all doing ok other than one (hmm... I wonder who that is) .. so that might mean Ynys Mon not so appealing if that's right - I'd looked at that too.

Wasn't that tease about Scotland?

Pulpstar

DavidL said:

It's stunning what a terrible choice this is.
Macron, a man who married his teacher and is allegedly living in a secret gay relationship

What does that have to do with the price of fish ?

peter_from_putney

HaroldO said:

Just off to get some shopping, but a little confession first; I have never actually bet on anything. I have won raffles and quizzes, but never actually bet on an event.

For a five pound stake (times are hard, the damn boiler died a few weeks ago and that's after getting burgled at the end of last year and needing an alarm putting in, and cameras) what would be a good bet to break me in?

Well you could do worse than take my advice and back the LibDems to hold onto Richmond Park at odds of 25/1 on offer from Betfair Sportsbook. Oops, sorry those odds have now gone, the revised price is 8/13.

Black_Rook

https://twitter.com/UKGE2020/status/856073872701050880

Yay!

Kind of a shame they can't have Ukip 6.5, Green 3.25 mind you.

AlsoIndigo

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

It's stunning what a terrible choice this is.

Fillon under criminal investigation for defrauding the taxpayer of substantial sums of money.

Le Pen whose main selling point is that she is slightly less insane than her father.

Macron, a man who married his teacher and is allegedly living in a secret gay relationship (and who doesn't even have a party to support him in Parliament).

Melenchon who makes Corbyn look like a rather wet Lib Dem.

Is this really the best France could do?

Fillon is a crook (who does at least recognise that France's biggest problem is its schloretic labour market).

Macron is a Blair-eque centrist (who does at least recognise that France's biggest problem is its schloretic labour market).

Le Pen thinks the biggest problem with France is the excessively business friendly environment.

Melenchon thinks that all income about EUR75,000 should be taxed at 100%.

Do LR have enough votes in the Assembly to defend Fillon's immunity if the police want to feel his collar once he is in office ?

Peter_the_Punter

rcs1000 said:

hellogoodbye said:

Anyone know any betting websites which allow to do the equivalent of Accumulators on general election constituencies? I can only find those which do singles

You won't find them, because outcomes are correlated. Bookmakers (sadly) aren't stupid.

Indeed.

The first time I went to a dog track I watched proceedings for a bit and noticed the white fluffy thing always crossed the line first. So in the next race I went and backed the hare. The bookie gave me very good odds, but when I went to collect he said 'You know it won, and so do I, but the silly sod who calls the results gave it to the six dog. Sorry mate.'

franklyn

We may be being misled on the betting front, as French residents (or those with a French email address) cannot bet online. So the overwhelming majority of the betting on this is from outside France. I hope I am wrong, as I think that Macron is the best candidate and also because I have a modest bet on him

Black_Rook

https://twitter.com/jaaydad/status/855874267304644609

ThreeQuidder

James Cleverly has been having fun on Twitter this morning, this is my favourite:

https://twitter.com/JamesCleverly/status/856094030588981248

Omnium

Black_Rook said:

Omnium said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.

Not beyond the bounds of possibility with the size of the 2015 Ukip vote.

The Labour incumbent has been fending off Plaid valiantly for four elections on the bounce. If the bleed of Labour votes to Plaid is limited, and the Tories bag some Labour defectors and the bulk of the Ukip support, then they could come through the middle.

Yes, it was the UKIP vote there which made it attractive. I feel its the sort of seat the Tories could win if the results are as the polls now suggest, so quite like it as one of my outlier bets.

I wish there was a full set of seat markets up. The two or three constituencies I most want to bet on aren't being offered as far as I can see.

Big_G_NorthWales

ThreeQuidder said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Omnium said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.

we may have a similar 'run' tonight on Welsh seats depending on the poll to come there - only thing is that the twit-teases suggest parties all doing ok other than one (hmm... I wonder who that is) .. so that might mean Ynys Mon not so appealing if that's right - I'd looked at that too.

Wasn't that tease about Scotland?

The Welsh poll is due tomorrow and is predicted to be a blood bath for labour

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Putney, can't see Richmond Park on Sportsbook...

I did put on a tiny sum at the nice odds, though.

Peter_the_Punter

MonikerDiCanio said:

It's high time France had a female President.

D'accord.

Juliette Binoche gets my vote every time.

Sandpit

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/UKGE2020/status/856073872701050880

Yay!

Kind of a shame they can't have Ukip 6.5, Green 3.25 mind you.

LOL!

AlsoIndigo

Pulpstar said:

DavidL said:

It's stunning what a terrible choice this is.
Macron, a man who married his teacher and is allegedly living in a secret gay relationship

What does that have to do with the price of fish ?

I think the key word is secret. I doubt the French give a damn about his domestic arrangements, they are likely to be less enchanted by lying about his domestic arrangements.

logical_song

MonikerDiCanio said:

It's high time France had a female President.

Nathalie Arthaud?

Peter_the_Punter

franklyn said:

We may be being misled on the betting front, as French residents (or those with a French email address) cannot bet online. So the overwhelming majority of the betting on this is from outside France. I hope I am wrong, as I think that Macron is the best candidate and also because I have a modest bet on him

The smart ones have satellite internet which avoids the prohibition.

OldKingCole

Peter_the_Punter said:

rcs1000 said:

hellogoodbye said:

Anyone know any betting websites which allow to do the equivalent of Accumulators on general election constituencies? I can only find those which do singles

You won't find them, because outcomes are correlated. Bookmakers (sadly) aren't stupid.

Indeed.

The first time I went to a dog track I watched proceedings for a bit and noticed the white fluffy thing always crossed the line first. So in the next race I went and backed the hare. The bookie gave me very good odds, but when I went to collect he said 'You know it won, and so do I, but the silly sod who calls the results gave it to the six dog. Sorry mate.'

Some years ago my wife and I with another couple were in the habit of having the occasional evening at the dogs, watching over a steak. One evening we were sitting near someone who seemed totally uninterested until about the fourth race when a scrffy little chap came up and whispered very anxiously in his hear. The man then pulled out a wad of notes, beckoned the waitress/betting runner, scribbled something a napkin and gave her it and the notes.
He was wildly excited throughout the race, then went back to being quiet.

AlsoIndigo

Peter_the_Punter said:

franklyn said:

We may be being misled on the betting front, as French residents (or those with a French email address) cannot bet online. So the overwhelming majority of the betting on this is from outside France. I hope I am wrong, as I think that Macron is the best candidate and also because I have a modest bet on him

The smart ones have satellite internet which avoids the prohibition.

Or a VPN. Used by the British to watch p0rn, and the French to gamble

Black_Rook

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/856099118451757057

Labour MP: our leader would make a shite Prime Minister. Vote Labour.

Beyond parody.

rcs1000

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

It's stunning what a terrible choice this is.

Fillon under criminal investigation for defrauding the taxpayer of substantial sums of money.

Le Pen whose main selling point is that she is slightly less insane than her father.

Macron, a man who married his teacher and is allegedly living in a secret gay relationship (and who doesn't even have a party to support him in Parliament).

Melenchon who makes Corbyn look like a rather wet Lib Dem.

Is this really the best France could do?

Fillon is a crook (who does at least recognise that France's biggest problem is its schloretic labour market).

Macron is a Blair-eque centrist (who does at least recognise that France's biggest problem is its schloretic labour market).

Le Pen thinks the biggest problem with France is the excessively business friendly environment.

Melenchon thinks that all income about EUR75,000 should be taxed at 100%.

Macron is a failed minister from the administration of one of the most catastrophically unpopular Presidents in history with an, um, interesting back story. And he probably is the best choice. Remarkable.

Macron actually pushed through - against opposition from the President and his party - some modest labour market reforms. For that, he deserves credit. From a technocratic perspective, he simplified and improved the ridiculously complex set of social charges on employees.

I think the issue is that, were he elected, he would struggle to get further reforms through, especially without a party. And protected interests would go to the barricades.

But he is tough. And - personally - I like his unconventional personal life. That suggests refreshing degree of not giving a fuck about people think of him.

DavidL

AlsoIndigo said:

Pulpstar said:

DavidL said:

It's stunning what a terrible choice this is.
Macron, a man who married his teacher and is allegedly living in a secret gay relationship

What does that have to do with the price of fish ?

I think the key word is secret. I doubt the French give a damn about his domestic arrangements, they are likely to be less enchanted by lying about his domestic arrangements.

Quite so. It is entirely traditional for French Presidents to have more than one family arrangement and the French consider that their own business but Assand is claiming he has material on him re a past gay relationship and he has now denied it repeatedly. No risk of blackmail there then.

peter_from_putney

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Putney, can't see Richmond Park on Sportsbook...

I did put on a tiny sum at the nice odds, though.

Morris - I think it's called licking their wounds ...... they seem to have taken down a whole raft of constituency markets, including the aforementioned Richmond Park, but you'll find it on their sister company, Paddy Power's site at 8/13.

rcs1000

AlsoIndigo said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

It's stunning what a terrible choice this is.

Fillon under criminal investigation for defrauding the taxpayer of substantial sums of money.

Le Pen whose main selling point is that she is slightly less insane than her father.

Macron, a man who married his teacher and is allegedly living in a secret gay relationship (and who doesn't even have a party to support him in Parliament).

Melenchon who makes Corbyn look like a rather wet Lib Dem.

Is this really the best France could do?

Fillon is a crook (who does at least recognise that France's biggest problem is its schloretic labour market).

Macron is a Blair-eque centrist (who does at least recognise that France's biggest problem is its schloretic labour market).

Le Pen thinks the biggest problem with France is the excessively business friendly environment.

Melenchon thinks that all income about EUR75,000 should be taxed at 100%.

Do LR have enough votes in the Assembly to defend Fillon's immunity if the police want to feel his collar once he is in office ?

The assembly elections will take place after the Presidential ones. They are also two round. So, the answer is: we don't know yet.

Pulpstar

rcs1000 said:

hellogoodbye said:

Anyone know any betting websites which allow to do the equivalent of Accumulators on general election constituencies? I can only find those which do singles

You won't find them, because outcomes are correlated. Bookmakers (sadly) aren't stupid.

I definitely had an accumulator on Labour winning the by-elections in their safe seats.

Beverley_C

SeanT said:

Fpt and on topic


Sexologists have long known bestiality/zoophilia is a very common female fantasy (much more common in women than in men). Bears, stallions and gorillas are the usual objects of desire. This is probably because they have features of "hyper masculinity".

Sexologists need to jack-off more and deal with their own fantasies instead of projecting them on to others.

Personally I would visit a psychologist before a fantasist...

Cyan

Is there a market in who will be the next prime minister in France?

Morris_Dancer

For those who missed it, here's my scientifically defined measure of Labour's performance, in seat changes, listed according to Roman battlefield defeats (or victories, if Labour gain seats):

-100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
-90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
-80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]

-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene

If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea

And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama

(If the polling keeps the Conservatives on 50%, I may have to add Eastern aspects, with Manzikert, Kleidion and the Fourth Crusade on standby, if needed).

Quincel

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

hellogoodbye said:

Anyone know any betting websites which allow to do the equivalent of Accumulators on general election constituencies? I can only find those which do singles

You won't find them, because outcomes are correlated. Bookmakers (sadly) aren't stupid.

I definitely had an accumulator on Labour winning the by-elections in their safe seats.

Yeah, bookies made an odd decision on that one. Luckily for them it didn't cost them this time.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Putney, ah. I don't have a PaddyPower account. Cheers for the clarification.

Cookie

Alistair said:

hellogoodbye said:

Anyone know any betting websites which allow to do the equivalent of Accumulators on general election constituencies? I can only find those which do singles

No one will.

Yes, I'd hoped that this was a possibility when I first looked into it. The reason being, accumulators are only possible on bets which are unconnected - e.g. two separate football matches on the same day - whereas two separate constituency bets will be dependent on the same factors - e.g. Lab lose both Barrow and Derbyshire North East because they have the same crap leader.

Cyan

Someone should do a poll in Scotland asking people "Which party would you like to play the leading role in the Scottish government? Please list them in order of preference."

My list would be

1) SLAB, 2) SLIBDEM, 3) SCON, 4) SNP

I'd be interested to know how many Tory voters would put SLAB above SNP. Is there a tactical voting effect going on in Scottish polls for the British general election?

Quincel

If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.

ThreeQuidder

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/856099118451757057

Labour MP: our leader would make a shite Prime Minister. Vote Labour.

Beyond parody.

I blame Sunil

peter_from_putney

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/UKGE2020/status/856073872701050880

Yay!

Kind of a shame they can't have Ukip 6.5, Green 3.25 mind you.

They did actually - the figures shown have been rounded up or down to the nearest whole percentage point.

kyf_100

Quincel said:

If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.

I see your logic but the trouble with that bet is, since polling puts the Lib Dems and Labour absolutely nowhere in Scotland, what you're effectively saying when you say "SNP failing to win a majority" is "Tories to win a majority in Scotland" - doesn't seem like such a good bet when you put it that way.

ToryJim

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/856099118451757057

Labour MP: our leader would make a shite Prime Minister. Vote Labour.

Beyond parody.

He thinks that approach will save him. It won't.

malcolmg

Quincel said:

If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.

You are bonkers or worse

TheWhiteRabbit

Quincel said:

If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.

Failing to win 29 seats? Madness. Although yesterday we were all flattered by 20/1 on Cons >9.5

valleyboy

Omnium said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.

Omnium said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.

Plaid pretty well nailed on. Wales opinion poll out tomorrow will confirm.

SimonStClare

ToryJim said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/856099118451757057

Labour MP: our leader would make a shite Prime Minister. Vote Labour.

Beyond parody.

He thinks that approach will save him. It won't.

May be so, but before he’s gone, we can at least admire his honesty…

peter_from_putney

valleyboy said:

Omnium said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.

Omnium said:

Does anyone have any thoughts on Ynys Mon? I've backed the Tories at 4/1.

Plaid pretty well nailed on. Wales opinion poll out tomorrow will confirm.

Don't you mean pretty well platted on?

Oi!

Morris_Dancer

I'd be flabbergasted if the SNP didn't win a majority of Scottish seats.

They're likely to go backwards, simply due to the high water mark of 2015, but I can't see them slipping below 30, and I'd be surprised if they were under 46-48.

Sandpit

ToryJim said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/856099118451757057

Labour MP: our leader would make a shite Prime Minister. Vote Labour.

Beyond parody.

He thinks that approach will save him. It won't.

There's 46 days more of this to go - watching dozens of moderate Labour MPs in what are now marginal seats squirming to get away from Corbyn to save their own skin, it's going to be hilarious viewing!

Cyan

rcs1000 said:

peter_from_putney said:

What comes across in the French polls is jst how close they have been to each other for many weeks on end. Even the more recent steady climb of Jean-Luc Melenchon has failed to disturb the balance between the leading trio to any meaningful extent.

Btw .... when can we expect to learn of the first results?. I hear of massive queues to vote - I'm rather assuming this might be bath news for the far left and far right candidates and by the same token goodish news for Fillon and Macron - am I likely to be correct?

It was the rise in turnout between round one and two that knocked MLP off her pedestal in the 2015 Regional Elections.

That being said, turnout in the first round of the French Presidential elections is usually about 80% in any case. How much higher can it be?

The official figure for turnout by noon was 28.54%. This is about the same as in 2012 (28.29%), lower than in 2007 (31.21%), and higher than in 2002 (21.40%). In Paris the "humorous" posters (hello Trump) will probably have a downward effect on turnout.

Expect first results around 8pm, final result before midnight - both French time.

calum

malcolmg said:

Quincel said:

If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.

You are bonkers or worse

I'm sensing "Murphyitis" is breaking out again !!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/23/polls-show-scottish-tories-win-12-seats-blow-nicola-sturgeon/

MonikerDiCanio

malcolmg said:

Quincel said:

If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.

You are bonkers or worse

Remember SLAB'S spectacular fall from grace. The Scottish public was bound to tire of Nats sooner or later. You've become the target.

ToryJim

SimonStClare said:

ToryJim said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/856099118451757057

Labour MP: our leader would make a shite Prime Minister. Vote Labour.

Beyond parody.

He thinks that approach will save him. It won't.

May be so, but before he’s gone, we can at least admire his honesty…

Yes, he's a decent guy and understands where Labour ought to be positioned. Unfortunately for Labour more of their sensible MPs are in vulnerable circumstances, the loonies are mostly in hypersafe seats sadly.

Arthur_Penny

Morris_Dancer said:

For those who missed it, here's my scientifically defined measure of Labour's performance, in seat changes, listed according to Roman battlefield defeats (or victories, if Labour gain seats):

-100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
-90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
-80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]

-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene

If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea

And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama

(If the polling keeps the Conservatives on 50%, I may have to add Eastern aspects, with Manzikert, Kleidion and the Fourth Crusade on standby, if needed).

Corbyn - give me back my lost MPs - Tony Blair after the 2017 election.

ToryJim

Sandpit said:

ToryJim said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/856099118451757057

Labour MP: our leader would make a shite Prime Minister. Vote Labour.

Beyond parody.

He thinks that approach will save him. It won't.

There's 46 days more of this to go - watching dozens of moderate Labour MPs in what are now marginal seats squirming to get away from Corbyn to save their own skin, it's going to be hilarious viewing!

I think it's genuinely tragic. I remember what it feels like from the other end of a drubbing and just on a human level you have to have sympathy.

Black_Rook

Quincel said:

If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.

Not a prayer. The Conservatives would be very pleased with 3 seats. The 12 projected by Curtice based on the Panelbase survey would be extraordinary.

But even if the Tories and Lib Dems combined took 15, that would still leave the SNP with 44.

So long as (a) Scottish politics remains divided along Unionist/Nationalist lines, and (b) SLAB is still alive, the SNP are (mostly) untouchable.

Black_Rook

https://twitter.com/earl_of_royston/status/856107056457285632

https://twitter.com/CompletePol/status/856107117928951808

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Penny, those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make compile a misleading dossier pertaining to WMD held in Iraq.

rottenborough

Any news on The Prince over the Water?

Charles

OldKingCole said:

OldKingCole said:

Second like the LD’s (I hope!)

When I posted this there was another post, hence second. Now it’s vanished. Either it’s weird or I’m seeing visions.

Maybe believing the LD’s will be second overall IS seeing a vision!

I made a snarky PST about @TheScreamingEagles

The Deputy Editor decided it was surplus to requirements

Sandpit

ToryJim said:

Sandpit said:

ToryJim said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/856099118451757057

Labour MP: our leader would make a shite Prime Minister. Vote Labour.

Beyond parody.

He thinks that approach will save him. It won't.

There's 46 days more of this to go - watching dozens of moderate Labour MPs in what are now marginal seats squirming to get away from Corbyn to save their own skin, it's going to be hilarious viewing!

I think it's genuinely tragic. I remember what it feels like from the other end of a drubbing and just on a human level you have to have sympathy.

Absolutely. I hope that a 1997-level event in reverse is what it needs to get the Labour members on side and the trots out of their party. We need a sensible Opposition and an alternative government in waiting, it's one of the basic requirements of parliamentary democracy.

Feel very sorry for the likes of @SouthamObserver and @RochdalePioneers on here, who have been Labour supporters for ever and have had their party taken away from them by the cult of Corbyn.

JonCisBack

On topic I was speaking to a French colleague of mine the other week - we were actually in France and the TV news was on in a hotel lobby whilst we were waiting for a colleague.

"who is going to win"? i asked

"i don't know. They are all shit. I have no idea who would be best". Seemed really fed up for a normally cheery guy

I think a lot of people will end up voting Tory for negative reasons - May is the least worst option. But on balance I think the french have the worst set of choices!

IanB2

ToryJim said:

SimonStClare said:

ToryJim said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/856099118451757057

Labour MP: our leader would make a shite Prime Minister. Vote Labour.

Beyond parody.

He thinks that approach will save him. It won't.

May be so, but before he’s gone, we can at least admire his honesty…

Yes, he's a decent guy and understands where Labour ought to be positioned. Unfortunately for Labour more of their sensible MPs are in vulnerable circumstances, the loonies are mostly in hypersafe seats sadly.

It will lose him more support than it gains. He is being disowned by many Corbynites already, and of course the picture of division and in-fighting won't win Labour any support either. But he is clearly way too trapped by previous utterances to have any other credible choices.

HaroldO

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HaroldO said:

Just off to get some shopping, but a little confession first; I have never actually bet on anything. I have won raffles and quizzes, but never actually bet on an event.

For a five pound stake (times are hard, the damn boiler died a few weeks ago and that's after getting burgled at the end of last year and needing an alarm putting in, and cameras) what would be a good bet to break me in?

Well, don't bet anything you can't afford to lose. Even if it is £5, if £5 is a lot.

Personally what I did two yeas ago is split my £5 into 5 £1 stakes, and find five interesting bets, with a traditional bookie. For example I had £1 on Balls losing his seat. £1 on the Lib Dem holding up. £1 on a local seat (Colchester). I can't remember the others.

A fiver I won't miss, hence why I am thinking of dipping my toe in. Hmm that is good advice, I will have a look once the hated gardening is done.

Fishing

Morris_Dancer said:

For those who missed it, here's my scientifically defined measure of Labour's performance, in seat changes, listed according to Roman battlefield defeats (or victories, if Labour gain seats):

-100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
-90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
-80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]

...

Here is my corresponding list derived from British naval history, with English/British victories if Labour lose seats, and defeats if they gain them:

-100 Battle of the Nile
-80 Trafalgar
-60 Taranto
-40 Dogger Bank
-20 Jutland
0 Cape Finisterre
+20 Convoy PQ17
+40 Sinking of the Prince of Wales and the Repulse

felix

ToryJim said:

SimonStClare said:

ToryJim said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/856099118451757057

Labour MP: our leader would make a shite Prime Minister. Vote Labour.

Beyond parody.

He thinks that approach will save him. It won't.

May be so, but before he’s gone, we can at least admire his honesty…

Yes, he's a decent guy and understands where Labour ought to be positioned. Unfortunately for Labour more of their sensible MPs are in vulnerable circumstances, the loonies are mostly in hypersafe seats sadly.

What exactly is decent is asking people to vote in a way that would enable JC to be PM? Will he guarantee as an MP to vote against his own leader after he wins a GE? not a chance.

MonikerDiCanio

Black_Rook said:

Quincel said:

If the Tories really are strong seconds in Scotland, surely there's a chance of the SNP slipping in a lot more than 10 seats? DYOR, but the 12/1 at Skybet on the SNP failing to win a majority of Scottish seats looks a good longshot to me. It's basically a 12/1 bet on the Tories doing so, which seems less crazy if they actually do poll 50% nationally.

Not a prayer. The Conservatives would be very pleased with 3 seats. The 12 projected by Curtice based on the Panelbase survey would be extraordinary.

But even if the Tories and Lib Dems combined took 15, that would still leave the SNP with 44.

So long as (a) Scottish politics remains divided along Unionist/Nationalist lines, and (b) SLAB is still alive, the SNP are (mostly) untouchable.

When you factor in the shy Tories, surely numerous in Nat occupied Scotland, Curtice is downplaying Conservative prospects.