The U.K. “is in a very weak bargaining position anyway,” Schmieding said. Victory for May’s Conservatives in the June 8 election “gives her a strong hand in selling to the domestic audience in the U.K. whatever she wants to sell, but it does not give her any advantage in selling in Poland or in Romania or in France or Germany,” he said. “Brexit will mostly be shaped by what the EU-27 is ready to offer, and Theresa May will just have to accept that.”
You really think that the uk has no choice but to accept whatever the eu say, dont you? They do have the stronger hand, but it's still a negotiation, even those with strong hands do not get to dictate everything.
They will dictate the main points, we will be able to argue over detail, It will essentially be take it or leave it. And that will be the choice. The same thing applies to any trade deals we may end up "negotiating". Our hand is exceptionally weak because the only weapons we have are ones that will hurt us more than they hurt the people across the table.
I absolutely concur with the reasoning that LibDem gains are going to be tougher to find than the current markets imply. But what if Lab totally - and I mean totally - collapses? [The Tories may have something devastating from JC's past, perhaps, or he might have a series of horrendous interviews]. In those circumstances anti-Tory voters might easily vote yellow just because there is no alternative for them.
Yes, that's the risk. I'm expecting the LDs to pick up a handful from the Tories in W London, Bath, Bristol etc but the unknown is the LD/Lab seats.
A proper collapse in the Labour vote (say to 20%) almost certainly puts the LDs second and liable to make considerable gains from the reds, especially in university towns and London. Polling last week showed that the general public doesnt know as much about Corbyn's past associations as we do on here - and the Tories are going to go hard on him being the IRA's friend in the midlands marginals.
Corbyn (the IRA's friend) seems to have a lot of traction here, but I think it will have very little impact on the general public. It is ancient history to most people. Images and tributes to cuddly Martin McGuinness including the handshake with the Queen, are more recent history.
Good article Mr Meeks. Personally I think the LDs will get around 18-20 seats in affluent Remain areas in Southwest London and seats like Lewes and Bristol West, Hampstead and Cambridge as well as a handful in the Southwest they used to hold like Bath, Thornbury and Yate and Truro and 2 from the SNP, Edinburgh West (which they hold at Holyrood) and East Dunbartonshire with Jo Swinson restanding. However I think they could lose Leave voting North Norfolk and Carshalton and Wallington to the Tories. That would take them back above their 2015 total and where the Liberals were from 1945 to 1979 but still below the SDP/LD totals from 1983 to 2010
My view from Hampstead is that - while the LDs will see a very significant increase in their vote share, gaining perhaps 10% from Labour, and 5% from the Conservatives - it'll be an easy Conservative gain.
1. Jeremy Corbyn is not a nice, kindly old duffer. 2. The Labour Party now has 46 days left to persuade England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Corbyn and sustained in office by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is just what they've always wanted.
On topic, I find myself in total agreement, for once, with Mr Meeks. If the Lib Dem total makes it up to 20 - i.e. back to where they were under Paddy Ashdown in 1992 - then they'll have had a very good day at the office.
A spokesman for the leader said: "Jeremy opposed the introduction of tuition fees and every increase. We will be setting out our policies in due course."
He previously announced plans to scrap tuition fees and restore student grants, a policy which would cost £10billion.
Mr Corbyn suggested that it could be funded by either increasing corporation tax by 2.5 per cent or a 7 per cent hike in national insurance for those earning more than £50,000 a year.
Apropos of nothing but before we leave the EU shouldn't we conduct some research into why the English are so obese compared to almost all other European countries? Could it be we just sit on our backsides all day contemplating how superior we are to everyone else?
The U.K. “is in a very weak bargaining position anyway,” Schmieding said. Victory for May’s Conservatives in the June 8 election “gives her a strong hand in selling to the domestic audience in the U.K. whatever she wants to sell, but it does not give her any advantage in selling in Poland or in Romania or in France or Germany,” he said. “Brexit will mostly be shaped by what the EU-27 is ready to offer, and Theresa May will just have to accept that.”
You really think that the uk has no choice but to accept whatever the eu say, dont you? They do have the stronger hand, but it's still a negotiation, even those with strong hands do not get to dictate everything.
They will dictate the main points, we will be able to argue over detail, It will essentially be take it or leave it. And that will be the choice. The same thing applies to any trade deals we may end up "negotiating". Our hand is exceptionally weak because the only weapons we have are ones that will hurt us more than they hurt the people across the table.
The point was William doesn't believe we'll be able to argue even over detail.
That doesn't even make sense - what happens in any foreign elections matters to the EU as it matters to us. Some will matter more than others, but the idea that the outcome of an election in another country has no relevance to them would be to suggest they pay no attention to how other countries vote, which would be silly more than anything else.
This isn't a 'The UK is super important' or 'The EU is so much more important they don't care about the UK' issue, its just common sense that an election outcome has potential to affect things to some degree.
Disagree completely. Their option to divide and rule just went away if she's got a solid majority behind her. A number of EU countries are desperate to ensure continued trade with UK, no matter what the attitude of Junker and the Eurocrats - a serious split on their side of the negotiating table is much more likely.
They don't need to divide and rule.
TMay already said "No deal is better than a bad deal".
The argument Brexiteers are making now is TMay can go to the negotiations saying "I need a deal I can get through Parliament"
No she doesn't.
EU: "Here's the deal"
TM: "I can't get that through Parliament"
EU: "OK, your preferred option of 'No Deal' is available. Have a nice day"
The LibDem’s promised ‘second referendum’ would in fact be a vote on the deal struck with the EU.
Such a vote would incentivise the EU to offer Britain a lousy deal in the hope that this would be rejected.
That does not however necessarily equate to our remaining in the EU and could in fact result in leaving without a deal.
Either way, the country could lose out as a consequence of these shenanigans.
The country would gain if the EU offered us a lousy deal, it was put to the people in a referendum (accept this lousy deal as the best on offer or stay in), and the people vote to stay in. That would be a great outcome for the country and we could put this Brexit nonsense behind us. Brexit would be remembered in years to come as a moment of madness, thankfully recovered.
Article 50 has now been triggered and nobody knows whether it can be revoked. As a consequence of this, nobody knows whether rejecting the deal would entail Britain staying in the EU or leaving without a deal. The LibDem policy simply does not stand up to scrutiny.
That article relates to a 'draft resolution' that is 'claimed' to be included and 'yet to be finalized'. If it does get finalized then it 'would require all 27 remaining EU member states to approve of giving Britain a second chance at membership'.
An election that returns her government with a significantly raised majority means that the EU side of the negotiations know she will have the clear support of her own Parliament for whatever is her stance. That gives her a much stronger position in the negotiations - which in theory makes the bad deal less likely.
The idea that what happens in the UK Parliament matters a jot to the EU is another Brexiteer fantasy that is about to be dashed.
It matters to many in Europe including the Irish, Danes and Dutch who met yesterday and agreed a united position to tell the Council that a free trade deal is essential and to stop the posturing
They are minnows. The EU is directed from Berlin. The long-term solution for Ireland is Irish reunification within the EU. I hope that the DUP loses seats in the GE.
A solution which would revive loyalist paramilitaries, the only solution is devolution
Do you mean devolution within Ireland, not UK?
Nope the UK.People forget the only reason NI was created was because of unionist violence over being forced into the Irish Free State, it is not just the IRA who were terrorists, loyalist groups were too which is why powersharing at Stormont remains key
An election that returns her government with a significantly raised majority means that the EU side of the negotiations know she will have the clear support of her own Parliament for whatever is her stance. That gives her a much stronger position in the negotiations - which in theory makes the bad deal less likely.
The idea that what happens in the UK Parliament matters a jot to the EU is another Brexiteer fantasy that is about to be dashed.
It matters to many in Europe including the Irish, Danes and Dutch who met yesterday and agreed a united position to tell the Council that a free trade deal is essential and to stop the posturing
They are minnows. The EU is directed from Berlin. The long-term solution for Ireland is Irish reunification within the EU.
And you think this makes the EU more attractive to us?
The statement that “The EU is directed from Berlin” or “They are minnows” and can be ignored reads like something Iain Duncan Smith could have written.
It is straight out of Leave.Eu handbook.
In what way did I suggest that I thought that this makes the EU more attractive to us? My perception of the EU has changed since about 2005, when the problems that re-unification had brought to Germany had effectively been overcome. Since then Germany (coincident with Merkel's chancellorship) has become increasingly dominant in the EU. I voted Brexit notwithstanding my expectation of a hard outcome; I don't want to be ruled from Berlin.
I absolutely concur with the reasoning that LibDem gains are going to be tougher to find than the current markets imply. But what if Lab totally - and I mean totally - collapses? [The Tories may have something devastating from JC's past, perhaps, or he might have a series of horrendous interviews]. In those circumstances anti-Tory voters might easily vote yellow just because there is no alternative for them.
Yes, that's the risk. I'm expecting the LDs to pick up a handful from the Tories in W London, Bath, Bristol etc but the unknown is the LD/Lab seats.
A proper collapse in the Labour vote (say to 20%) almost certainly puts the LDs second and liable to make considerable gains from the reds, especially in university towns and London. Polling last week showed that the general public doesnt know as much about Corbyn's past associations as we do on here - and the Tories are going to go hard on him being the IRA's friend in the midlands marginals.
Corbyn (the IRA's friend) seems to have a lot of traction here, but I think it will have very little impact on the general public. It is ancient history to most people. Images and tributes to cuddly Martin McGuinness including the handshake with the Queen, are more recent history.
Certain parts of the country have very long memories about what the IRA did to their communities.
For all the jokes about the Manchester bomb causing £1bn of improvements to the city, there are people in Warrington, Birmingham and surrounding areas who lost friends and family to Irish terrorism. They haven't forgotten what happened.
An election that returns her government with a significantly raised majority means that the EU side of the negotiations know she will have the clear support of her own Parliament for whatever is her stance. That gives her a much stronger position in the negotiations - which in theory makes the bad deal less likely.
The idea that what happens in the UK Parliament matters a jot to the EU is another Brexiteer fantasy that is about to be dashed.
Obviously it matters to them. The make up of Parliament will have a bearing on what kind of a deal is eventually reached
I absolutely concur with the reasoning that LibDem gains are going to be tougher to find than the current markets imply. But what if Lab totally - and I mean totally - collapses? [The Tories may have something devastating from JC's past, perhaps, or he might have a series of horrendous interviews]. In those circumstances anti-Tory voters might easily vote yellow just because there is no alternative for them.
Yes, that's the risk. I'm expecting the LDs to pick up a handful from the Tories in W London, Bath, Bristol etc but the unknown is the LD/Lab seats.
A proper collapse in the Labour vote (say to 20%) almost certainly puts the LDs second and liable to make considerable gains from the reds, especially in university towns and London. Polling last week showed that the general public doesnt know as much about Corbyn's past associations as we do on here - and the Tories are going to go hard on him being the IRA's friend in the midlands marginals.
Corbyn (the IRA's friend) seems to have a lot of traction here, but I think it will have very little impact on the general public. It is ancient history to most people. Images and tributes to cuddly Martin McGuinness including the handshake with the Queen, are more recent history.
Certain parts of the country have very long memories about what the IRA did to their communities.
For all the jokes about the Manchester bomb causing £1bn of improvements to the city, there are people in Warrington, Birmingham and surrounding areas who lost friends and family to Irish terrorism. They haven't forgotten what happened.
And of course it isn't just the IRA, as that tweet just below highlights.
'Tories play down tax rise hint' headlines - they are frit at the first sign of media upset again, no balls.
They are flying kites to see what response is, before putting pen to paper over manifesto. No doubt there is some furious focus grouping going on.
May has to be brave and tell the public the NHS will collapse within 5 years without additional, and substantial, sums for social care to keep people out of hospital.
Theresa May's decision on foreign aid is absolutely correct and she again demonstrates her vision for a global UK on leaving the EU. It may comfort UKIP to divert foreign aid to the UK but just think how that would look abroad. The enemies of the UK, and there are many in the EU and the remainers would paint Theresa May as just another 'Little Englander'
She will cut out the nonsense aid but expect her to campaign about all the good we do and the prestige in the World it bestows on us.
The tax argument is again Theresa May at her best demonstrating an honesty that many find refreshing.
I am confident that her stance will have added more votes to her column than taken away.
George Osborne welcomed her decision and if he comes on side and promotes Theresa May in the Evening Standard that will be a big win for her
I wonder where they got the idea May was a Faragist 'Little Englander'?
The U.K. “is in a very weak bargaining position anyway,” Schmieding said. Victory for May’s Conservatives in the June 8 election “gives her a strong hand in selling to the domestic audience in the U.K. whatever she wants to sell, but it does not give her any advantage in selling in Poland or in Romania or in France or Germany,” he said. “Brexit will mostly be shaped by what the EU-27 is ready to offer, and Theresa May will just have to accept that.”
You really think that the uk has no choice but to accept whatever the eu say, dont you? They do have the stronger hand, but it's still a negotiation, even those with strong hands do not get to dictate everything.
They will dictate the main points, we will be able to argue over detail, It will essentially be take it or leave it. And that will be the choice. The same thing applies to any trade deals we may end up "negotiating". Our hand is exceptionally weak because the only weapons we have are ones that will hurt us more than they hurt the people across the table.
The point was William doesn't believe we'll be able to argue even over detail.
Well, clearly that is taking things much too far. The terms dictated by the EU are the ones they want, so they will happily concede on detail to get them. A year here, a year there; a billion here, a billion there, they can be discussed. Ditto with trade deals.
There is little point on speculating on Lib Dem seats until after the CC elections in 2 weeks time .These will enable us to say that Seat X is no chance , Seat Y a possible etc . The other point to be wary of is that UNS may not work well if the Lib Dems are successful in concentrating their efforts in 50/100 seats . To illustrate this say the Lib Dems vote share / poll ratings increase from 8% modestly to 12% . In 550 seats the vote share actually increases from 5% to 7% simple maths tells us that in the 100 seats the Lib Dem share will have increased much more dramatically from 24.5% to almost 40%
Do you really think Dumbartonshire East is a likelier prospect than Fife NE?
The LDs didn't do very well in the Holyrood constituencies that make up Dumbartonshire last year (15% of the vote, only up small), and 2015 already saw substantial pro-Union tactical voting. My guess is that the (excellent) Jo Swinson will probably fall back slightly.
Compare that with Fife NE. There, the Holyrood and Westminster constituencies are almost identical. In 2012, the Holyrood election saw the SNP take a 9% lead over the LDs. That lead was replicated in the General in 2015, with basically identical swings. Last year the LibDems nabbed the seat, and Willie Rennard saw a 15% increase in his vote, largely on the back of Conservative and Labour tactical votes. I would be very surprised if there wasn't a similar result in June.
From my purely 'out of touch with real people', metropolitan, bien-pensant perspective, I and most people I know intend to switch from Lab to LD. It's why I think Chestnut(?)'s assertion that Corbyn is going to do well in London is woefully off the mark.
I think Corbyn will particularly collapse in London. The combination of annoyed remainers and antipathy to higher taxes is going to be particularly toxic in West London. The East will see the UKIP switchers to the Tories.
I know two Labour Remain-ers from Jeremy's own seat, who were incredibly enthused when he became leader. They were sick of Tory-lite and
Now, it's anecdote, anecdote, anecdote. But given the LibDems tend to rise in the polls during campaigns as they get more coverage. (And given coverage of Corbyn is likely to be good for the LibDems.) Plus the boost they'll get from coming second in terms of seats and votes in the English council elections next month, I would expect them to end up on perhaps 15% of the vote.
That'd be decent progress from the 8% last time, a near doubling of their vote share. It would likely mean there was no Con-LibDem swing to speak of, and would mean there would likely be gains, albeit modest ones. But as Alistair points out, there aren't that many seats that the LibDems can easily gain.
Let's assume they lose Richmond (it was a 20,000 Conservative majority last time). That takes them back to eight. I don't buy the LibDems lose Southport meme, as the party did extremely well in the locals there last year (as in, their vote share increased substantially). But North Norfolk, which voted Leave, looks vulnerable. Let's assume they lose one of their existing seats to the Conservatives (or Plaid, although that's more remote).
That means they start on 7. What can they reasonably expect to gain? I'd argue two Scottish seats look well within reach; Cambridge must surely be a 'gimme' irrespective of the new Labour MP's personal vote (personal votes didn't save Julian last time); Twickenham and Bath are the most likely gains from the Conservatives. And then there's Southwark (50/50), Hornsey & Wood Green (25% chance at best), Cardiff Central (75%). Beyond that it's really tough.
The path to 15 or 16 seats looks achievable. The path to north of 20 is very tough. Sure, it could happen in the event of a total Labour meltdown. Or if Unionist tactical voting in Scotland really ramps up. But Alistair's analysis is surely right: sell the LibDem seats below 20.
There is evidence from Yougov polling that the Lib Dems are doing very well in Inner London. Politically, I'd treat Hornsey & Wood Green as part of Inner London and I'd rate their prospects there as 50/50. Poor Inner London will still vote heavily Labour.
'Tories play down tax rise hint' headlines - they are frit at the first sign of media upset again, no balls.
I really want to see the specific commitments dropped, if only to have a bloody good clean up of the tax code and benefit entitlements.
The outrage at the NI change proposed in the budget shows how difficult these things are in practice though, but it should be high on the list of things for a Conservative government with a good majority to do.
The "average" family on £20-30k shouldn't be filling in forms for tax credits, they should be paying less tax in the first place!
There is little point on speculating on Lib Dem seats until after the CC elections in 2 weeks time .These will enable us to say that Seat X is no chance , Seat Y a possible etc . The other point to be wary of is that UNS may not work well if the Lib Dems are successful in concentrating their efforts in 50/100 seats . To illustrate this say the Lib Dems vote share / poll ratings increase from 8% modestly to 12% . In 550 seats the vote share actually increases from 5% to 7% simple maths tells us that in the 100 seats the Lib Dem share will have increased much more dramatically from 24.5% to almost 40%
Wasn't there a UK polling report saying the performance in the locals in the same year (but not at same time) as a GE are not always a good representation of how things will work out in the GE? (Though that might have been liberals doing better than the locals would indicate?)
The LDs will end the election with fewer than 10 seats and Westmorland and Lonsdale will not be one of them - ask their own councillors up here.
Well, we've got the county council election there in 12 days, so we'll get an idea about how the LDs are holding up there.
I struggle to see how the LDs don't gain Edinburgh West, Fife NE and Cambridge. That means they need to lose three to stay under 10.
Bets against Southport, Norwich South, Westmoreland and Lonsdale, and Ceredgion you reckon?
No route for Lab to hold Cambridge? I know its a small majority, but still.
Cambridge is ultra, ultra Remain. The Labour majority is almost nil, and the national polling indicates that the net swing from Lab to Lib Dem is responsible for the bulk of the improvement in the Lib Dems' position. There were also still over 8,000 Tory votes in Cambridge in 2015, and it's by no means impossible that some of those will vote yellow to ensure that Labour is removed (people have been talking about anti-Tory tactical voting for decades, but I would imagine that a lot of anti-Labour tactical voting already occurs, and it may become a more pronounced phenomenon in the era of Corbyn.)
About the only thing that Labour has going for it is that it has held up very well on the city council, but local elections are a notoriously inaccurate guide to general election performance. The Lib Dems are nailed on to take this seat (certainly, if they don't then you have to wonder if they'll make progress anywhere!)
The LDs will end the election with fewer than 10 seats and Westmorland and Lonsdale will not be one of them - ask their own councillors up here.
Well, we've got the county council election there in 12 days, so we'll get an idea about how the LDs are holding up there.
I struggle to see how the LDs don't gain Edinburgh West, Fife NE and Cambridge. That means they need to lose three to stay under 10.
Bets against Southport, Norwich South, Westmoreland and Lonsdale, and Ceredgion you reckon?
I do slightly struggle to see Norfolk North (which I assume you meant) going. It should go on demographics, but it's hard to overstate incumbency in the particular seat - Lamb is simply very popular in a way 98% of MPs aren't.
Southport has been strong in local elections and Pugh is certainly not unpopular, but nor does he have rock star appeal.
Ceredigion I have no insight on - I know one poster has been ramping heavily but I don't know if that's realistic or an axe to grind.
Westmoreland is silly.
I think 16-20 is my central case. There is value selling but not down to single figures again.
An election that returns her government with a significantly raised majority means that the EU side of the negotiations know she will have the clear support of her own Parliament for whatever is her stance. That gives her a much stronger position in the negotiations - which in theory makes the bad deal less likely.
The idea that what happens in the UK Parliament matters a jot to the EU is another Brexiteer fantasy that is about to be dashed.
It matters to many in Europe including the Irish, Danes and Dutch who met yesterday and agreed a united position to tell the Council that a free trade deal is essential and to stop the posturing
They are minnows. The EU is directed from Berlin. The long-term solution for Ireland is Irish reunification within the EU. I hope that the DUP loses seats in the GE.
A solution which would revive loyalist paramilitaries, the only solution is devolution
Do you mean devolution within Ireland, not UK?
Nope the UK.People forget the only reason NI was created was because of unionist violence over being forced into the Irish Free State, it is not just the IRA who were terrorists, loyalist groups were too which is why powersharing at Stormont remains key
Not often I agree with you but on this you are spot on.
There is evidence from Yougov polling that the Lib Dems are doing very well in Inner London. Politically, I'd treat Hornsey & Wood Green as part of Inner London and I'd rate their prospects there as 50/50. Poor Inner London will still vote heavily Labour.
Anecdote: I know a surgeon at the Royal Free who lives in H&WG. She had voted Labour until Iraq, before shifting to the LibDems, before returning to Labour last year. She will be returning to the LibDems this year.
On Topic The problem with this analysis is that Polling is accurate about the situation a Year ago. That is not surprising, most voters take almost no interest in Politics between Elections & for the vast majority the last Elections were in May 2015. As June 8th gets closer the Polls will move into line with whats happening in actual Elections. We can see this process beginning already, over the last 10 days The Liibdems have risen by around 1% & Labour fallen by the same amount The first thing to watch out for is how the Parties do on May 4th, I think we will see not just a Libdem Revival but also a Labour collapse.
There is little point on speculating on Lib Dem seats until after the CC elections in 2 weeks time .These will enable us to say that Seat X is no chance , Seat Y a possible etc . The other point to be wary of is that UNS may not work well if the Lib Dems are successful in concentrating their efforts in 50/100 seats . To illustrate this say the Lib Dems vote share / poll ratings increase from 8% modestly to 12% . In 550 seats the vote share actually increases from 5% to 7% simple maths tells us that in the 100 seats the Lib Dem share will have increased much more dramatically from 24.5% to almost 40%
Indeed, Mark, but some on here don't seem to want to understand that.
There will be a very few seats where the LD vote share will advance strongly from 2015 - there will indeed be one or two surprises where the seat wasn't strongly fought before but where new groups of activists have emerged and will achieve progress far in advance of the national swing.
Conversely, one or two areas of previous strength will see no progress or indeed, with the known former MP or candidate having departed, see further regression. The majority of seats were weak before and will be weak now with movement in line with the national swing.
The LDs will end the election with fewer than 10 seats and Westmorland and Lonsdale will not be one of them - ask their own councillors up here.
Well, we've got the county council election there in 12 days, so we'll get an idea about how the LDs are holding up there.
I struggle to see how the LDs don't gain Edinburgh West, Fife NE and Cambridge. That means they need to lose three to stay under 10.
Bets against Southport, Norwich South, Westmoreland and Lonsdale, and Ceredgion you reckon?
No route for Lab to hold Cambridge? I know its a small majority, but still.
If the Labour Party has lost 10% of its vote, and the LDs have gained 7%, that's a 17% differential.
Of course, the LDs might end up underperforming, and getting perhaps 10%. And Labour might have a great campaign and stay in the 30s. In which case they'll have a good chance of holding Cambridge.
But as it stands right now, that differential (especially in hyper-Remain Cambridge) looks insurmountable.
@BethRigby: Tories took all 15 Lib Dem seats in SW in 2015. May needs to hold them; Foreign Aid pledge helps to counter/neutralise Lib Dem threat (2/2)
The Europhiles will not be placated by this, but the people who the Tories are hoping to sweep up - Labour Doris from Bolton - will look at it and conclude it's poor allocation of funds.
The power of £350m a week was all about "wasting" money abroad when it could be spent in this country.
The thing about the 0.7% thing is that because it is an abstract target, it would be so easy to resile from: keep the 0.7%, you could say, but it is now a ceiling not a target. From now on it will be bottom up: "here is a specific project; in light of the benefit to the uk taxpayer of sponsoring it, should we sponsor it?", not "here is 0.7% of GDP, what shall we spend it on?" It isn't as if there is no poverty in this country which needs alleviating (except in the minds of the barkingly far right who think that "relative poverty" is a weasel concept dreamt up by the left to disguise the fact that everyone has a 60" plasma telly these days).
I still hold out hope that individuals' charity donations, to DEC appeals and the like, will one day count towards the target.
There is little point on speculating on Lib Dem seats until after the CC elections in 2 weeks time .These will enable us to say that Seat X is no chance , Seat Y a possible etc . The other point to be wary of is that UNS may not work well if the Lib Dems are successful in concentrating their efforts in 50/100 seats . To illustrate this say the Lib Dems vote share / poll ratings increase from 8% modestly to 12% . In 550 seats the vote share actually increases from 5% to 7% simple maths tells us that in the 100 seats the Lib Dem share will have increased much more dramatically from 24.5% to almost 40%
Wasn't there a UK polling report saying the performance in the locals in the same year (but not at same time) as a GE are not always a good representation of how things will work out in the GE? (Though that might have been liberals doing better than the locals would indicate?)
I agree - needs a big pinch of salt. But if the Lib Dems were doing exceptionally well in seat X, sweeping or nearly sweeping up, and badly in seat Y, barely or not holding their own, that has to say something about June prospects.
Also, people will be more than usually national-focused in May. It's hard to run an, "ignore the national picture, look at the pothole" campaign just now.
@BethRigby: Tories took all 15 Lib Dem seats in SW in 2015. May needs to hold them; Foreign Aid pledge helps to counter/neutralise Lib Dem threat (2/2)
The Europhiles will not be placated by this, but the people who the Tories are hoping to sweep up - Labour Doris from Bolton - will look at it and conclude it's poor allocation of funds.
The power of £350m a week was all about "wasting" money abroad when it could be spent in this country.
The thing about the 0.7% thing is that because it is an abstract target, it would be so easy to resile from: keep the 0.7%, you could say, but it is now a ceiling not a target. From now on it will be bottom up: "here is a specific project; in light of the benefit to the uk taxpayer of sponsoring it, should we sponsor it?", not "here is 0.7% of GDP, what shall we spend it on?" It isn't as if there is no poverty in this country which needs alleviating (except in the minds of the barkingly far right who think that "relative poverty" is a weasel concept dreamt up by the left to disguise the fact that everyone has a 60" plasma telly these days).
I still hold out hope that individuals' charity donations, to DEC appeals and the like, will one day count towards the target.
Good article Mr Meeks. Personally I think the LDs will get around 18-20 seats in affluent Remain areas in Southwest London and seats like Lewes and Bristol West, Hampstead and Cambridge as well as a handful in the Southwest they used to hold like Bath, Thornbury and Yate and Truro and 2 from the SNP, Edinburgh West (which they hold at Holyrood) and East Dunbartonshire with Jo Swinson restanding. However I think they could lose Leave voting North Norfolk and Carshalton and Wallington to the Tories. That would take them back above their 2015 total and where the Liberals were from 1945 to 1979 but still below the SDP/LD totals from 1983 to 2010
My view from Hampstead is that - while the LDs will see a very significant increase in their vote share, gaining perhaps 10% from Labour, and 5% from the Conservatives - it'll be an easy Conservative gain.
I'd forecast Con 42, Lab 32, LD 22.
I think the LDs may outpoll Labour in Hampstead, but I agree the Tories will win it quite easily.
Another shout for my outside LD tip of Islington South. The LDs are very well organised there and Thornberry is not a well-liked MP. She has backed Corbyn's Brexit line faithfully, but represents a constituency that was 75% remain. She probably has enough to hold on, but it was only a couple of elections ago that Islington South was not a Labour gimme.
There is little point on speculating on Lib Dem seats until after the CC elections in 2 weeks time .These will enable us to say that Seat X is no chance , Seat Y a possible etc . The other point to be wary of is that UNS may not work well if the Lib Dems are successful in concentrating their efforts in 50/100 seats . To illustrate this say the Lib Dems vote share / poll ratings increase from 8% modestly to 12% . In 550 seats the vote share actually increases from 5% to 7% simple maths tells us that in the 100 seats the Lib Dem share will have increased much more dramatically from 24.5% to almost 40%
You're right about the locals being a good indicator, but some of us are trying to beat bookies and other punters who have incomplete information!
There is little point on speculating on Lib Dem seats until after the CC elections in 2 weeks time .These will enable us to say that Seat X is no chance , Seat Y a possible etc . The other point to be wary of is that UNS may not work well if the Lib Dems are successful in concentrating their efforts in 50/100 seats . To illustrate this say the Lib Dems vote share / poll ratings increase from 8% modestly to 12% . In 550 seats the vote share actually increases from 5% to 7% simple maths tells us that in the 100 seats the Lib Dem share will have increased much more dramatically from 24.5% to almost 40%
Wasn't there a UK polling report saying the performance in the locals in the same year (but not at same time) as a GE are not always a good representation of how things will work out in the GE? (Though that might have been liberals doing better than the locals would indicate?)
I think it is more an indication rather than a good representation . To take an example - If the Conservatives win the local elections in OXWAB you can be sure they will win.the GE there . If the Lib Dems win the local elections narrowly then the Conservatives are likely to win the GE . If the Lib Dems win the local elections easily then they are in with a chance at the G E
@BethRigby: Tories took all 15 Lib Dem seats in SW in 2015. May needs to hold them; Foreign Aid pledge helps to counter/neutralise Lib Dem threat (2/2)
The Europhiles will not be placated by this, but the people who the Tories are hoping to sweep up - Labour Doris from Bolton - will look at it and conclude it's poor allocation of funds.
The power of £350m a week was all about "wasting" money abroad when it could be spent in this country.
The thing about the 0.7% thing is that because it is an abstract target, it would be so easy to resile from: keep the 0.7%, you could say, but it is now a ceiling not a target. From now on it will be bottom up: "here is a specific project; in light of the benefit to the uk taxpayer of sponsoring it, should we sponsor it?", not "here is 0.7% of GDP, what shall we spend it on?" It isn't as if there is no poverty in this country which needs alleviating (except in the minds of the barkingly far right who think that "relative poverty" is a weasel concept dreamt up by the left to disguise the fact that everyone has a 60" plasma telly these days).
I still hold out hope that individuals' charity donations, to DEC appeals and the like, will one day count towards the target.
Makes sense since its a proportion of GDP not a proportion of taxes.
There is little point on speculating on Lib Dem seats until after the CC elections in 2 weeks time .These will enable us to say that Seat X is no chance , Seat Y a possible etc . The other point to be wary of is that UNS may not work well if the Lib Dems are successful in concentrating their efforts in 50/100 seats . To illustrate this say the Lib Dems vote share / poll ratings increase from 8% modestly to 12% . In 550 seats the vote share actually increases from 5% to 7% simple maths tells us that in the 100 seats the Lib Dem share will have increased much more dramatically from 24.5% to almost 40%
Indeed, Mark, but some on here don't seem to want to understand that.
There will be a very few seats where the LD vote share will advance strongly from 2015 - there will indeed be one or two surprises where the seat wasn't strongly fought before but where new groups of activists have emerged and will achieve progress far in advance of the national swing.
Conversely, one or two areas of previous strength will see no progress or indeed, with the known former MP or candidate having departed, see further regression. The majority of seats were weak before and will be weak now with movement in line with the national swing.
I suppose there's a real risk that no hope seats will see disproportionate increases - so 4% to 9% say - and better seats will see a smaller increase, not absolutely but proportionately - so 25% to 30% say.
The logic for this is that Lib Dems have a relevance as an anti-Brexit party (as they were the anti-war party in 2005) so they get votes from people who never get a leaflet off them but who hates that their neighborhood voted Brexit and want to say FU.
An election that returns her government with a significantly raised majority means that the EU side of the negotiations know she will have the clear support of her own Parliament for whatever is her stance. That gives her a much stronger position in the negotiations - which in theory makes the bad deal less likely.
The idea that what happens in the UK Parliament matters a jot to the EU is another Brexiteer fantasy that is about to be dashed.
It matters to many in Europe including the Irish, Danes and Dutch who met yesterday and agreed a united position to tell the Council that a free trade deal is essential and to stop the posturing
They are minnows. The EU is directed from Berlin. The long-term solution for Ireland is Irish reunification within the EU. I hope that the DUP loses seats in the GE.
A solution which would revive loyalist paramilitaries, the only solution is devolution
Why not a Condominium (joint British & English sovereignty) as a transition phase, with the 6 counties remaining in the EU?
Good article Mr Meeks. Personally I think the LDs will get around 18-20 seats in affluent Remain areas in Southwest London and seats like Lewes and Bristol West, Hampstead and Cambridge as well as a handful in the Southwest they used to hold like Bath, Thornbury and Yate and Truro and 2 from the SNP, Edinburgh West (which they hold at Holyrood) and East Dunbartonshire with Jo Swinson restanding. However I think they could lose Leave voting North Norfolk and Carshalton and Wallington to the Tories. That would take them back above their 2015 total and where the Liberals were from 1945 to 1979 but still below the SDP/LD totals from 1983 to 2010
My view from Hampstead is that - while the LDs will see a very significant increase in their vote share, gaining perhaps 10% from Labour, and 5% from the Conservatives - it'll be an easy Conservative gain.
I'd forecast Con 42, Lab 32, LD 22.
I think the LDs may outpoll Labour in Hampstead, but I agree the Tories will win it quite easily.
Another shout for my outside LD tip of Islington South. The LDs are very well organised there and Thornberry is not a well-liked MP. She has backed Corbyn's Brexit line faithfully, but represents a constituency that was 75% remain. She probably has enough to hold on, but it was only a couple of elections ago that Islington South was not a Labour gimme.
Interesting. Presumably white van man will also be voting against her? 25/1 on BF sportsbook. Value?
The LDs will end the election with fewer than 10 seats and Westmorland and Lonsdale will not be one of them - ask their own councillors up here.
I don't think Tim will lose his seat, much as I'd love him to. He'd be the first Party leader to lose a seat since Archibald Sinclair if memory serves. Staggeringly unlikely
I got the 2015 election result wrong because I couldn't imagine a house with less than 30 Lib Dems in it. Had I been a bit more logical I would have realised that the Lib Dems would lose seats if not enough people voted for them, as the polls were saying.
Good article Mr Meeks. Personally I think the LDs will get around 18-20 seats in affluent Remain areas in Southwest London and seats like Lewes and Bristol West, Hampstead and Cambridge as well as a handful in the Southwest they used to hold like Bath, Thornbury and Yate and Truro and 2 from the SNP, Edinburgh West (which they hold at Holyrood) and East Dunbartonshire with Jo Swinson restanding. However I think they could lose Leave voting North Norfolk and Carshalton and Wallington to the Tories. That would take them back above their 2015 total and where the Liberals were from 1945 to 1979 but still below the SDP/LD totals from 1983 to 2010
My view from Hampstead is that - while the LDs will see a very significant increase in their vote share, gaining perhaps 10% from Labour, and 5% from the Conservatives - it'll be an easy Conservative gain.
I'd forecast Con 42, Lab 32, LD 22.
I think the LDs may outpoll Labour in Hampstead, but I agree the Tories will win it quite easily.
Another shout for my outside LD tip of Islington South. The LDs are very well organised there and Thornberry is not a well-liked MP. She has backed Corbyn's Brexit line faithfully, but represents a constituency that was 75% remain. She probably has enough to hold on, but it was only a couple of elections ago that Islington South was not a Labour gimme.
I think they're too far behind, and there's a growing Conservative vote to contend with.
Totally off topic, but does anyone know the best route to challenge a private parking charge (other than an appeal to the private company, which I am sure are rejected as a matter of course)? Got slapped with an £80 fine for staying 2 minutes over for a hospital appointment.
'Tories play down tax rise hint' headlines - they are frit at the first sign of media upset again, no balls.
I really want to see the specific commitments dropped, if only to have a bloody good clean up of the tax code and benefit entitlements.
The outrage at the NI change proposed in the budget shows how difficult these things are in practice though, but it should be high on the list of things for a Conservative government with a good majority to do.
The "average" family on £20-30k shouldn't be filling in forms for tax credits, they should be paying less tax in the first place!
The problem in this country with regards tax and public services is the public want a Rolls Royce but are only prepared to pay Cortina prices
There is little point on speculating on Lib Dem seats until after the CC elections in 2 weeks time .These will enable us to say that Seat X is no chance , Seat Y a possible etc . The other point to be wary of is that UNS may not work well if the Lib Dems are successful in concentrating their efforts in 50/100 seats . To illustrate this say the Lib Dems vote share / poll ratings increase from 8% modestly to 12% . In 550 seats the vote share actually increases from 5% to 7% simple maths tells us that in the 100 seats the Lib Dem share will have increased much more dramatically from 24.5% to almost 40%
Indeed, Mark, but some on here don't seem to want to understand that.
There will be a very few seats where the LD vote share will advance strongly from 2015 - there will indeed be one or two surprises where the seat wasn't strongly fought before but where new groups of activists have emerged and will achieve progress far in advance of the national swing.
Conversely, one or two areas of previous strength will see no progress or indeed, with the known former MP or candidate having departed, see further regression. The majority of seats were weak before and will be weak now with movement in line with the national swing.
I suppose there's a real risk that no hope seats will see disproportionate increases - so 4% to 9% say - and better seats will see a smaller increase, not absolutely but proportionately - so 25% to 30% say.
The logic for this is that Lib Dems have a relevance as an anti-Brexit party (as they were the anti-war party in 2005) so they get votes from people who never get a leaflet off them but who hates that their neighborhood voted Brexit and want to say FU.
Yes that is a theory but one where the local elections should be able to prove/disprove . If the Lib Dem vote goes up in no hope seats more than in better seats .
An election that returns her government with a significantly raised majority means that the EU side of the negotiations know she will have the clear support of her own Parliament for whatever is her stance. That gives her a much stronger position in the negotiations - which in theory makes the bad deal less likely.
The idea that what happens in the UK Parliament matters a jot to the EU is another Brexiteer fantasy that is about to be dashed.
It matters to many in Europe including the Irish, Danes and Dutch who met yesterday and agreed a united position to tell the Council that a free trade deal is essential and to stop the posturing
The biggest fantasy we've seen today are the (at least) two LDs who think Remain can be an option at a second referendum.
It can't. If there's to be a referendum on the deal, it will be Deal or No Deal. The Greeks tried that. It was suboptimal.
Totally off topic, but does anyone know the best route to challenge a private parking charge (other than an appeal to the private company, which I am sure are rejected as a matter of course)? Got slapped with an £80 fine for staying 2 minutes over for a hospital appointment.
You dont expect the traffic wardens on here to have any sympathy do you?!
The LDs will end the election with fewer than 10 seats and Westmorland and Lonsdale will not be one of them - ask their own councillors up here.
Well, we've got the county council election there in 12 days, so we'll get an idea about how the LDs are holding up there.
I struggle to see how the LDs don't gain Edinburgh West, Fife NE and Cambridge. That means they need to lose three to stay under 10.
Bets against Southport, Norwich South, Westmoreland and Lonsdale, and Ceredgion you reckon?
I do slightly struggle to see Norfolk North (which I assume you meant) going. It should go on demographics, but it's hard to overstate incumbency in the particular seat - Lamb is simply very popular in a way 98% of MPs aren't.
Southport has been strong in local elections and Pugh is certainly not unpopular, but nor does he have rock star appeal.
Ceredigion I have no insight on - I know one poster has been ramping heavily but I don't know if that's realistic or an axe to grind.
Westmoreland is silly.
I think 16-20 is my central case. There is value selling but not down to single figures again.
Ceredigion. Ramping .... Axe to grind .... me.
All I have pointed out is that we know that Mark Williams’ election agent is one of the ‘Dirty Thirty’.
The LDs in Ceredigion were fined the maximum after very serious breaches of election expenses law.
And that was in response to a LD poster who listed nearly 50 Tory MPs that might be the ‘Dirty Thirty’.
My opinion is personalities matter in these West Wales seats. Ceredigion is hard to predict until we know who the PC candidate is. PC could easily take it.
It is not safe, and I think Mark Williams will have gone backwards since last time because of his travails, which were widely reported in the Cambrian News, if not the LibDem Voice.
Totally off topic, but does anyone know the best route to challenge a private parking charge (other than an appeal to the private company, which I am sure are rejected as a matter of course)? Got slapped with an £80 fine for staying 2 minutes over for a hospital appointment.
You dont expect the traffic wardens on here to have any sympathy do you?!
Rules is rules
The rules may allow some flexibility in such situations for all I know.
Totally off topic, but does anyone know the best route to challenge a private parking charge (other than an appeal to the private company, which I am sure are rejected as a matter of course)? Got slapped with an £80 fine for staying 2 minutes over for a hospital appointment.
First appeal to the company as you say, using all of the "was your equipment calibrated" stuff you'll find on the likes of money saving expert. Then, if that fails, what "flavour" of hospital was it? Depending on if it's an acute trust, or community care, and depending on if it's public, PFI, or PPP, the NHS entity will have some influence. Always go to the Chief Exec (in a letter marked "private") and always play up the clinical angle.
Totally off topic, but does anyone know the best route to challenge a private parking charge (other than an appeal to the private company, which I am sure are rejected as a matter of course)? Got slapped with an £80 fine for staying 2 minutes over for a hospital appointment.
After appealing to the company itself you can appeal that to the Parking on Private Land Appeals (https://popla.co.uk/).
According to their 2016 report, they granted about 33% of appeals, but if you count appeals which the company didn't contest that rises to 50%. I note also the paragraphs from that report as follows:
"In October 2015, the British Parking Association updated its Code of Practice to include a minimum grace period of 10 minutes at the end of the parking period, on sites where parking is permitted.
When assessing appeals we consider whether a parking operator has provided the minimum grace period set out by the British Parking Association. However, motorists should not automatically assume that their parking time is 10 minutes longer than the time they have paid for or than the minimum period set out on the signs. "
This illustrates once again the scale of the Lib Dems' problem. Most of their limited selection of marginals are versus the Tories, with several also against the SNP. Yet their modest improvement in the national polls comes primarily at the expense of Labour. In other words, there are doing well against a weak party, but to make a really big comeback in Parliament they need to chalk up a lot of wins against strong parties.
Even allowing for local factors and strong Remain sentiment in some seats, it's still a tough ask for them.
Totally off topic, but does anyone know the best route to challenge a private parking charge (other than an appeal to the private company, which I am sure are rejected as a matter of course)? Got slapped with an £80 fine for staying 2 minutes over for a hospital appointment.
You dont expect the traffic wardens on here to have any sympathy do you?!
Rules is rules
The rules may allow some flexibility in such situations for all I know.
An election that returns her government with a significantly raised majority means that the EU side of the negotiations know she will have the clear support of her own Parliament for whatever is her stance. That gives her a much stronger position in the negotiations - which in theory makes the bad deal less likely.
The idea that what happens in the UK Parliament matters a jot to the EU is another Brexiteer fantasy that is about to be dashed.
It matters to many in Europe including the Irish, Danes and Dutch who met yesterday and agreed a united position to tell the Council that a free trade deal is essential and to stop the posturing
The biggest fantasy we've seen today are the (at least) two LDs who think Remain can be an option at a second referendum.
It can't. If there's to be a referendum on the deal, it will be Deal or No Deal. The Greeks tried that. It was suboptimal.
Why would a parliamentary vote on Deal or No Deal be any different? If they chose No Deal it would just precipitate the same kind of crisis with May being sent back to Brussels to have the thumb screws applied. At that point the only thing in her direct power might be to revoke Article 50.
Totally off topic, but does anyone know the best route to challenge a private parking charge (other than an appeal to the private company, which I am sure are rejected as a matter of course)? Got slapped with an £80 fine for staying 2 minutes over for a hospital appointment.
Was the ticket given to you whilst you were parked?
Or was it as you were leaving and done my ANPR cameras ?
If it is the latter you are allowed a ten minute grace period after expiry of the ticket.
If it is the former then blame the hospital and also ask about any grace period they offer.
2 mins is harsh, especially in hospital circumstances.
Totally off topic, but does anyone know the best route to challenge a private parking charge (other than an appeal to the private company, which I am sure are rejected as a matter of course)? Got slapped with an £80 fine for staying 2 minutes over for a hospital appointment.
Surely you must have a case if your appointment overran. I recently appealed against such a fine on the basis that I had parked in an emergency and my ticket had dropped in to the driver's footwell. I was then offered a reduced fine of £15 which I paid.
A dangerously continental idea I'd have thought. What's wrong with stout, British hemp?
The Scottish Maiden and Halifax Gibbet predated Dr Guillotin*, but it's probably best not to become too familiar with them!
* Who actually opposed capital punishment and didn't invent the machine anyway - it was designed by Antoine Louis and originally called a louisette - but became associated with it due to a popular joke he made during a speech in favour of a more humane method of execution, which he saw as a stepping stone to the abolition of the punishment altogether. I wasn't aware of this til I checked Wikipedia five minutes ago...
Totally off topic, but does anyone know the best route to challenge a private parking charge (other than an appeal to the private company, which I am sure are rejected as a matter of course)? Got slapped with an £80 fine for staying 2 minutes over for a hospital appointment.
I am also going through a parking charge nightmare. I got a letter from Camden council, along with photos, asking me for £65 for parking at a bust stop on Gray's Inn Road at 12.45 am on 5th March, when me and my car were 100 miles away in Leamington Spa. I have reported what is a clear case of number plate cloning to the police, but Camden are still asking for the money. On a point of principle I won't pay, but it looks like it is going to cost me a fortune to get the fine rescinded.
An election that returns her government with a significantly raised majority means that the EU side of the negotiations know she will have the clear support of her own Parliament for whatever is her stance. That gives her a much stronger position in the negotiations - which in theory makes the bad deal less likely.
The idea that what happens in the UK Parliament matters a jot to the EU is another Brexiteer fantasy that is about to be dashed.
It matters to many in Europe including the Irish, Danes and Dutch who met yesterday and agreed a united position to tell the Council that a free trade deal is essential and to stop the posturing
The biggest fantasy we've seen today are the (at least) two LDs who think Remain can be an option at a second referendum.
It can't. If there's to be a referendum on the deal, it will be Deal or No Deal. The Greeks tried that. It was suboptimal.
Why would a parliamentary vote on Deal or No Deal be any different? If they chose No Deal it would just precipitate the same kind of crisis with May being sent back to Brussels to have the thumb screws applied. At that point the only thing in her direct power might be to revoke Article 50.
LOL - we are leaving one way or another - deal with it.
Totally off topic, but does anyone know the best route to challenge a private parking charge (other than an appeal to the private company, which I am sure are rejected as a matter of course)? Got slapped with an £80 fine for staying 2 minutes over for a hospital appointment.
I am also going through a parking charge nightmare. I got a letter from Camden council, along with photos, asking me for £65 for parking at a bust stop on Gray's Inn Road at 12.45 am on 5th March, when me and my car were 100 miles away in Leamington Spa. I have reported what is a clear case of number plate cloning to the police, but Camden are still asking for the money. On a point of principle I won't pay, but it looks like it is going to cost me a fortune to get the fine rescinded.
It shouldn't cost you. A good proportion of appeals are successful, and provided you can establish that you (and more importantly the car) weren't there, you stand every chance of having it waived at no cost to you.
Totally off topic, but does anyone know the best route to challenge a private parking charge (other than an appeal to the private company, which I am sure are rejected as a matter of course)? Got slapped with an £80 fine for staying 2 minutes over for a hospital appointment.
Totally off topic, but does anyone know the best route to challenge a private parking charge (other than an appeal to the private company, which I am sure are rejected as a matter of course)? Got slapped with an £80 fine for staying 2 minutes over for a hospital appointment.
I am also going through a parking charge nightmare. I got a letter from Camden council, along with photos, asking me for £65 for parking at a bust stop on Gray's Inn Road at 12.45 am on 5th March, when me and my car were 100 miles away in Leamington Spa. I have reported what is a clear case of number plate cloning to the police, but Camden are still asking for the money. On a point of principle I won't pay, but it looks like it is going to cost me a fortune to get the fine rescinded.
It shouldn't cost you. A good proportion of appeals are successful, and provided you can establish that you (and more importantly the car) weren't there, you stand every chance of having it waived at no cost to you.
Note that if Camden doesn't allow the appeal the next step is the Traffic Penalty Tribunal for public land, not POPLA as below for private land. Agree that your case sounds solid though, hopefully the Council will see sense.
The LDs will end the election with fewer than 10 seats and Westmorland and Lonsdale will not be one of them - ask their own councillors up here.
Well, we've got the county council election there in 12 days, so we'll get an idea about how the LDs are holding up there.
I struggle to see how the LDs don't gain Edinburgh West, Fife NE and Cambridge. That means they need to lose three to stay under 10.
Bets against Southport, Norwich South, Westmoreland and Lonsdale, and Ceredgion you reckon?
I do slightly struggle to see Norfolk North (which I assume you meant) going. It should go on demographics, but it's hard to overstate incumbency in the particular seat - Lamb is simply very popular in a way 98% of MPs aren't.
Southport has been strong in local elections and Pugh is certainly not unpopular, but nor does he have rock star appeal.
Ceredigion I have no insight on - I know one poster has been ramping heavily but I don't know if that's realistic or an axe to grind.
Westmoreland is silly.
I think 16-20 is my central case. There is value selling but not down to single figures again.
Ceredigion. Ramping .... Axe to grind .... me.
All I have pointed out is that we know that Mark Williams’ election agent is one of the ‘Dirty Thirty’.
The LDs in Ceredigion were fined the maximum after very serious breaches of election expenses law.
And that was in response to a LD poster who listed nearly 50 Tory MPs that might be the ‘Dirty Thirty’.
My opinion is personalities matter in these West Wales seats. Ceredigion is hard to predict until we know who the PC candidate is. PC could easily take it.
It is not safe, and I think Mark Williams will have gone backwards since last time because of his travails, which were widely reported in the Cambrian News, if not the LibDem Voice.
also wont be able to count on student vote as many will have gone home from Aber and Lampeter by June 8th
'Tories play down tax rise hint' headlines - they are frit at the first sign of media upset again, no balls.
I really want to see the specific commitments dropped, if only to have a bloody good clean up of the tax code and benefit entitlements.
The outrage at the NI change proposed in the budget shows how difficult these things are in practice though, but it should be high on the list of things for a Conservative government with a good majority to do.
The "average" family on £20-30k shouldn't be filling in forms for tax credits, they should be paying less tax in the first place!
Mr Sandpit, my fat finger accidentally offtopicked your post (with which I agree). Apologies. (cc. Moderator)
Totally off topic, but does anyone know the best route to challenge a private parking charge (other than an appeal to the private company, which I am sure are rejected as a matter of course)? Got slapped with an £80 fine for staying 2 minutes over for a hospital appointment.
Was the ticket given to you whilst you were parked?
Or was it as you were leaving and done my ANPR cameras ?
If it is the latter you are allowed a ten minute grace period after expiry of the ticket.
If it is the former then blame the hospital and also ask about any grace period they offer.
2 mins is harsh, especially in hospital circumstances.
Was it Parking Eye who run the show ?
Obviously go through the appeal. Two minutes is very harsh.
For private parking, the advice (when you have a case) used to be not to pay, since they rarely pursue cases to court and there weren't any instances of successful prosecutions. But there was that recent case of the woman who parked repeatedly on private land and ignored all the tickets, who lost the case and got hit for thousands. Still, in your particular case I would be surprised if they think it worth pursuing, and if you don't pay you may well not hear anything more other than perhaps another letter.
Totally off topic, but does anyone know the best route to challenge a private parking charge (other than an appeal to the private company, which I am sure are rejected as a matter of course)? Got slapped with an £80 fine for staying 2 minutes over for a hospital appointment.
Was the ticket given to you whilst you were parked?
Or was it as you were leaving and done my ANPR cameras ?
If it is the latter you are allowed a ten minute grace period after expiry of the ticket.
If it is the former then blame the hospital and also ask about any grace period they offer.
2 mins is harsh, especially in hospital circumstances.
Was it Parking Eye who run the show ?
Ticket given by letter. It was parking eye, appears to have been done on the basis of camera shots of entering and leaving, but having now checking online it seems they are saying I did not pay for any duration at all (this is not mentioned in the letter). I would dispute that, but unfortunately no longer have my ticket.
'Tories play down tax rise hint' headlines - they are frit at the first sign of media upset again, no balls.
Internal dissent. Lots of grumbling this morning from people I've campaigned with in the past, I imagine the grumbling among Tory MPs in marginals vs Lib Dems is even worse.
Totally off topic, but does anyone know the best route to challenge a private parking charge (other than an appeal to the private company, which I am sure are rejected as a matter of course)? Got slapped with an £80 fine for staying 2 minutes over for a hospital appointment.
Was the ticket given to you whilst you were parked?
Or was it as you were leaving and done my ANPR cameras ?
If it is the latter you are allowed a ten minute grace period after expiry of the ticket.
If it is the former then blame the hospital and also ask about any grace period they offer.
2 mins is harsh, especially in hospital circumstances.
Was it Parking Eye who run the show ?
Ticket given by letter. It was parking eye, appears to have been done on the basis of camera shots of entering and leaving, but having now checking online it seems they are saying I did not pay for any duration at all (this is not mentioned in the letter). I would dispute that, but unfortunately no longer have my ticket.
To establish that they would have to have a photo of your car parked without a ticket, assuming it was pay-and-display rather than on exit.
The LDs will end the election with fewer than 10 seats and Westmorland and Lonsdale will not be one of them - ask their own councillors up here.
Well, we've got the county council election there in 12 days, so we'll get an idea about how the LDs are holding up there.
I struggle to see how the LDs don't gain Edinburgh West, Fife NE and Cambridge. That means they need to lose three to stay under 10.
Bets against Southport, Norwich South, Westmoreland and Lonsdale, and Ceredgion you reckon?
I do slightly struggle to see Norfolk North (which I assume you meant) going. It should go on demographics, but it's hard to overstate incumbency in the particular seat - Lamb is simply very popular in a way 98% of MPs aren't.
Southport has been strong in local elections and Pugh is certainly not unpopular, but nor does he have rock star appeal.
Ceredigion I have no insight on - I know one poster has been ramping heavily but I don't know if that's realistic or an axe to grind.
Westmoreland is silly.
I think 16-20 is my central case. There is value selling but not down to single figures again.
Ceredigion. Ramping .... Axe to grind .... me.
All I have pointed out is that we know that Mark Williams’ election agent is one of the ‘Dirty Thirty’.
The LDs in Ceredigion were fined the maximum after very serious breaches of election expenses law.
And that was in response to a LD poster who listed nearly 50 Tory MPs that might be the ‘Dirty Thirty’.
My opinion is personalities matter in these West Wales seats. Ceredigion is hard to predict until we know who the PC candidate is. PC could easily take it.
It is not safe, and I think Mark Williams will have gone backwards since last time because of his travails, which were widely reported in the Cambrian News, if not the LibDem Voice.
also wont be able to count on student vote as many will have gone home from Aber and Lampeter by June 8th
Totally off topic, but does anyone know the best route to challenge a private parking charge (other than an appeal to the private company, which I am sure are rejected as a matter of course)? Got slapped with an £80 fine for staying 2 minutes over for a hospital appointment.
You dont expect the traffic wardens on here to have any sympathy do you?!
Rules is rules
The rules may allow some flexibility in such situations for all I know.
Now is the time to reveal you are Paul Nuttall! Watch that sympathetic tone change
Totally off topic, but does anyone know the best route to challenge a private parking charge (other than an appeal to the private company, which I am sure are rejected as a matter of course)? Got slapped with an £80 fine for staying 2 minutes over for a hospital appointment.
I am also going through a parking charge nightmare. I got a letter from Camden council, along with photos, asking me for £65 for parking at a bust stop on Gray's Inn Road at 12.45 am on 5th March, when me and my car were 100 miles away in Leamington Spa. I have reported what is a clear case of number plate cloning to the police, but Camden are still asking for the money. On a point of principle I won't pay, but it looks like it is going to cost me a fortune to get the fine rescinded.
Take a photo of your car from the same angle as the one they caught, and look very carefully for any differences that indicate it was a different car. Met Police and TFL are usually very interested in plate cloning, as it will cost them congestion charge revenue and is usually associated with other crimes. On the other hand, if it's not dealt with quickly there could be dozens of fines racking up that they'll try and pin on you in the future.
'Tories play down tax rise hint' headlines - they are frit at the first sign of media upset again, no balls.
I really want to see the specific commitments dropped, if only to have a bloody good clean up of the tax code and benefit entitlements.
The outrage at the NI change proposed in the budget shows how difficult these things are in practice though, but it should be high on the list of things for a Conservative government with a good majority to do.
The "average" family on £20-30k shouldn't be filling in forms for tax credits, they should be paying less tax in the first place!
Mr Sandpit, my fat finger accidentally offtopicked your post (with which I agree). Apologies. (cc. Moderator)
Comments
I'd forecast Con 42, Lab 32, LD 22.
Your daily reminder:
1. Jeremy Corbyn is not a nice, kindly old duffer.
2. The Labour Party now has 46 days left to persuade England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Corbyn and sustained in office by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is just what they've always wanted.
On topic, I find myself in total agreement, for once, with Mr Meeks. If the Lib Dem total makes it up to 20 - i.e. back to where they were under Paddy Ashdown in 1992 - then they'll have had a very good day at the office.
He previously announced plans to scrap tuition fees and restore student grants, a policy which would cost £10billion.
Mr Corbyn suggested that it could be funded by either increasing corporation tax by 2.5 per cent or a 7 per cent hike in national insurance for those earning more than £50,000 a year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/21/labour-ruled-tories-real-extremists-slogan-amid-fears-could/
Peoppe lost their shit over 1%, what will the reaction be if he goes for the 7% policy.
TMay already said "No deal is better than a bad deal".
The argument Brexiteers are making now is TMay can go to the negotiations saying "I need a deal I can get through Parliament"
No she doesn't.
EU: "Here's the deal"
TM: "I can't get that through Parliament"
EU: "OK, your preferred option of 'No Deal' is available. Have a nice day"
Nothing is certain.
I struggle to see how the LDs don't gain Edinburgh West, Fife NE and Cambridge. That means they need to lose three to stay under 10.
Bets against Southport, Norwich South, Westmoreland and Lonsdale, and Ceredgion you reckon?
For all the jokes about the Manchester bomb causing £1bn of improvements to the city, there are people in Warrington, Birmingham and surrounding areas who lost friends and family to Irish terrorism. They haven't forgotten what happened.
Up the werkers.....if corbyn and his mob get elected they will be the only ones able to afford to drink in such an establishment.
May has to be brave and tell the public the NHS will collapse within 5 years without additional, and substantial, sums for social care to keep people out of hospital.
In the same way somebody removing a chastity belt doesn't suddenly become a whore.
It's shown in the TV listing as "The Charge of the Light Brigade"
The other point to be wary of is that UNS may not work well if the Lib Dems are successful in concentrating their efforts in 50/100 seats . To illustrate this say the Lib Dems vote share / poll ratings increase from 8% modestly to 12% . In 550 seats the vote share actually increases from 5% to 7% simple maths tells us that in the 100 seats the Lib Dem share will have increased much more dramatically from 24.5% to almost 40%
Regressive taxation - their favourite.
In a year or two, w Crossrail, it'll take about 30 mins to The HofC door to door, back in the countryside for tea!
Do you really think Dumbartonshire East is a likelier prospect than Fife NE?
The LDs didn't do very well in the Holyrood constituencies that make up Dumbartonshire last year (15% of the vote, only up small), and 2015 already saw substantial pro-Union tactical voting. My guess is that the (excellent) Jo Swinson will probably fall back slightly.
Compare that with Fife NE. There, the Holyrood and Westminster constituencies are almost identical. In 2012, the Holyrood election saw the SNP take a 9% lead over the LDs. That lead was replicated in the General in 2015, with basically identical swings. Last year the LibDems nabbed the seat, and Willie Rennard saw a 15% increase in his vote, largely on the back of Conservative and Labour tactical votes. I would be very surprised if there wasn't a similar result in June.
The outrage at the NI change proposed in the budget shows how difficult these things are in practice though, but it should be high on the list of things for a Conservative government with a good majority to do.
The "average" family on £20-30k shouldn't be filling in forms for tax credits, they should be paying less tax in the first place!
About the only thing that Labour has going for it is that it has held up very well on the city council, but local elections are a notoriously inaccurate guide to general election performance. The Lib Dems are nailed on to take this seat (certainly, if they don't then you have to wonder if they'll make progress anywhere!)
Southport has been strong in local elections and Pugh is certainly not unpopular, but nor does he have rock star appeal.
Ceredigion I have no insight on - I know one poster has been ramping heavily but I don't know if that's realistic or an axe to grind.
Westmoreland is silly.
I think 16-20 is my central case. There is value selling but not down to single figures again.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39660686
The problem with this analysis is that Polling is accurate about the situation a Year ago. That is not surprising, most voters take almost no interest in Politics between Elections & for the vast majority the last Elections were in May 2015. As June 8th gets closer the Polls will move into line with whats happening in actual Elections. We can see this process beginning already, over the last 10 days The Liibdems have risen by around 1% & Labour fallen by the same amount
The first thing to watch out for is how the Parties do on May 4th, I think we will see not just a Libdem Revival but also a Labour collapse.
There will be a very few seats where the LD vote share will advance strongly from 2015 - there will indeed be one or two surprises where the seat wasn't strongly fought before but where new groups of activists have emerged and will achieve progress far in advance of the national swing.
Conversely, one or two areas of previous strength will see no progress or indeed, with the known former MP or candidate having departed, see further regression. The majority of seats were weak before and will be weak now with movement in line with the national swing.
Of course, the LDs might end up underperforming, and getting perhaps 10%. And Labour might have a great campaign and stay in the 30s. In which case they'll have a good chance of holding Cambridge.
But as it stands right now, that differential (especially in hyper-Remain Cambridge) looks insurmountable.
Also, people will be more than usually national-focused in May. It's hard to run an, "ignore the national picture, look at the pothole" campaign just now.
Another shout for my outside LD tip of Islington South. The LDs are very well organised there and Thornberry is not a well-liked MP. She has backed Corbyn's Brexit line faithfully, but represents a constituency that was 75% remain. She probably has enough to hold on, but it was only a couple of elections ago that Islington South was not a Labour gimme.
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/855713565986127872
Quaint.
The logic for this is that Lib Dems have a relevance as an anti-Brexit party (as they were the anti-war party in 2005) so they get votes from people who never get a leaflet off them but who hates that their neighborhood voted Brexit and want to say FU.
It can't. If there's to be a referendum on the deal, it will be Deal or No Deal. The Greeks tried that. It was suboptimal.
Rules is rules
All I have pointed out is that we know that Mark Williams’ election agent is one of the ‘Dirty Thirty’.
The LDs in Ceredigion were fined the maximum after very serious breaches of election expenses law.
And that was in response to a LD poster who listed nearly 50 Tory MPs that might be the ‘Dirty Thirty’.
My opinion is personalities matter in these West Wales seats. Ceredigion is hard to predict until we know who the PC candidate is. PC could easily take it.
It is not safe, and I think Mark Williams will have gone backwards since last time because of his travails, which were widely reported in the Cambrian News, if not the LibDem Voice.
Replacing nurseries with riding stables is an 'interesting' idea...
Not sure the SNP is left wing. A Conservative revival in Scotland might push them into the left wing camp just to be anti Tory of course.
According to their 2016 report, they granted about 33% of appeals, but if you count appeals which the company didn't contest that rises to 50%. I note also the paragraphs from that report as follows:
"In October 2015, the British Parking Association updated its Code of Practice to include a minimum grace period of 10 minutes at the end of the parking period, on sites where parking is permitted.
When assessing appeals we consider whether a parking operator has provided the minimum grace period set out by the British Parking Association. However, motorists should not automatically assume that their parking time is 10 minutes longer than the time they have paid for or than the minimum period set out on the signs. "
http://www.popla.co.uk/docs/default-source/default-document-library/popla-annual-report-2016.pdf?sfvrsn=2
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/election-2017-50-labour-mps-most-risk-losing-their-seats
Second place parties in these seats:
Con 43, LD 3, Plaid 1, SNP 1, Green 1, Ukip 1
This illustrates once again the scale of the Lib Dems' problem. Most of their limited selection of marginals are versus the Tories, with several also against the SNP. Yet their modest improvement in the national polls comes primarily at the expense of Labour. In other words, there are doing well against a weak party, but to make a really big comeback in Parliament they need to chalk up a lot of wins against strong parties.
Even allowing for local factors and strong Remain sentiment in some seats, it's still a tough ask for them.
Or was it as you were leaving and done my ANPR cameras ?
If it is the latter you are allowed a ten minute grace period after expiry of the ticket.
If it is the former then blame the hospital and also ask about any grace period they offer.
2 mins is harsh, especially in hospital circumstances.
Was it Parking Eye who run the show ?
* Who actually opposed capital punishment and didn't invent the machine anyway - it was designed by Antoine Louis and originally called a louisette - but became associated with it due to a popular joke he made during a speech in favour of a more humane method of execution, which he saw as a stepping stone to the abolition of the punishment altogether. I wasn't aware of this til I checked Wikipedia five minutes ago...
With the mess Labour are in he would be an absolute hoot.
Apologies.
(cc. Moderator)
For private parking, the advice (when you have a case) used to be not to pay, since they rarely pursue cases to court and there weren't any instances of successful prosecutions. But there was that recent case of the woman who parked repeatedly on private land and ignored all the tickets, who lost the case and got hit for thousands. Still, in your particular case I would be surprised if they think it worth pursuing, and if you don't pay you may well not hear anything more other than perhaps another letter.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131141923
Asking the DVLA for a new plate may be sensible.