Sorry to go straight off topic - but if Con are going to drop the tax pledge and the pensions triple lock - I wonder to what extent they have focus grouped such moves.
Agree with Mr Meeks - on the question of Lib Dem gains from Remainers the B.E.S. had this to say:
Fifth, the scale of a Liberal Democrat revival from Remain voters is fairly small at the time of wave 10, only 10% of Labour Remain voters and 8% of Conservative Remain voters had defected to the Liberal Democrats.
So is British politics realigning? The EU referendum has certainly stirred voters up even more than would be expected in the volatile modern electoral environment. The Conservatives do look set to become the dominant party of Leave voters, but there is no one party that is currently consolidating Remain voters. Whether this merely reflects the popularity of Theresa May compared with Jeremy Corbyn’s lukewarm (at best) support or a permanent shift in British party politics remains to be seen.
Sorry to go straight off topic - but if Con are going to drop the tax pledge and the pensions triple lock - I wonder to what extent they have focus grouped such moves.
Probably not. Corbyn is making them complacently lazy.
This line of thought from Alastair Meeks corresponds precisely with that of Robert Smithson, who iirc is expecting a tally of approximately 20 LibDem MPs to be elected on 8 June. The best, i.e. highest fixing price for a down bet is William Hill's 29.5 seats, which means you collect at odds of 5/6 should the Yellow team end up with fewer than 30 MPs. This dovetails in beautifully with the bet I suggested at 8/1 with Ladbrokes (now 4/1) on the LibDems winning between 30 - 39 seats - so unless they win 40 or more seats I'm on a certain winner. With that, I'm retiring to bed a happy man.
An interesting observation on the previous thread from AndyJS on the sharp fall in the price of crude, which more than other single factor is likely to keep the inflation rate under control during the election period, thereby generating a feelgood factor were petrol prices to fall a couple of pence as a result.
Shocking fact in the France article posted earlier. It's not just the United States.
"In January 2016, the national statistical institute Insée announced that life expectancy had fallen for both sexes in France for the first time since World War II, and it’s the native French working class that is likely driving the decline."
It's obviously going to be working class people, and those with less community are hit worse.
Demand for the labour-power of working class people who expect to live in houses they've borrowed money to buy, who are accustomed to having maybe 20 square metres each of housing, to having their own front door, to being able to afford three meals a day and some paid-for leisure, is falling. It's falling through the floor. Many PBers don't need to be told how the market works.
Sorry to go straight off topic - but if Con are going to drop the tax pledge and the pensions triple lock - I wonder to what extent they have focus grouped such moves.
Difficult to say - they may do "rolling focus groups" - but I doubt they have had the time to check out this specifically in the context of a GE.
In either case it's not the job of focus groups to tell parties what their policies should be - they can help with the presentation of policy- but the people who decide it should be politicians - and any who rely on focus groups to tell them what to do should be taken out and shot.
I had thought it would be UKIP which would be the recipient of a lot of ex-Labour votes, especially in the North. That may still be the case, but it seems to me that Farron has very skilfully made the LibDems the party of the 48 per cent. Anecdotally, virtually everyone I know on the Left is going to vote LibDem. A straw in the wind maybe, and it may not ripple much outside London. But don’t bet against a very strong LibDem revival…
"Definite to vote this way" in today's Ipsos poll Le Pen 85% Fillon 83% Macron 73% Melenchon 67% Hamon 51%"
Wow, should that determination to vote be borne out, then the contest between Fillon and Macron for the No.2 run-off place becomes very tight indeed.
Critical thing for me from those figures is what a third of the Melenchon support does, if it does not continue to support him. That represents 6% of the elctorate.
It is highly unlikely to go to the other left wing candidate. Hamon, because that would be a wasted vote. In the head to head between Le Pen and Macron on the ifop rolling poll it shows 51% of Melenchon's suporters going to Macron in the second round with only 12% going to Le Pen, the rest abstaining. If Melenchon's support turns out to be as flakey as the Ipsos poll suggests, then Macron is likely to be the major beneficiary and could be worth as much as another 3% for him.
In R1, Mélenchon won't lose 6% in such a short period of time. He lost 2% in 2012, going from 13% to 11%. This time he'll go from 19% to 16-17%, maybe even 15%, but no lower, even if he didn't do that well on TV on Friday. Most of the votes lost will go to Le Pen. People want radical change. They want to give the "establishment" a kick up the arse. Practically none of his lost vote will go to Macron.
I still don't think Macron will get to R2. Even on those Ipsos figures, his vote is almost as flaky as Mélenchon's and a lot less flaky than Fillon's.
And whoever gets to R2, there are likely to be street disturbances over the Mayday weekend. That may work against there being a large number of abstentions. On the other hand, the viewing figures for Friday's TV show that gave 15 minutes to each candidate in an interview format were low.
Today I learnt: although official turnout in 2012 increased between R1 and R2, from 79.5% to 80.4%, those figures are highly misleading, because they count spoilt and null ballot papers as if they were votes! And "spoilt and null" increased from 0.7 million in R1 to 2.2 million in R2. REAL turnout, that is the number of valid votes as a proportion of registered voters, FELL from 78.0% to 75.3%.
An interesting observation on the previous thread from AndyJS on the sharp fall in the price of crude, which more than other single factor is likely to keep the inflation rate under control during the election period, thereby generating a feelgood factor were petrol prices to fall a couple of pence as a result.
But are we going to see the pre EURef 99p a litre for unleaded?
I had thought it would be UKIP which would be the recipient of a lot of ex-Labour votes, especially in the North. That may still be the case, but it seems to me that Farron has very skilfully made the LibDems the party of the 48 per cent. Anecdotally, virtually everyone I know on the Left is going to vote LibDem. A straw in the wind maybe, and it may not ripple much outside London. But don’t bet against a very strong LibDem revival…
May be the case now - but wasn't the case at the end of 2016 according to B.E.S.
Shocking fact in the France article posted earlier. It's not just the United States.
"In January 2016, the national statistical institute Insée announced that life expectancy had fallen for both sexes in France for the first time since World War II, and it’s the native French working class that is likely driving the decline."
It's obviously going to be working class people, and those with less community are hit worse.
Demand for the labour-power of working class people who expect to live in houses they've borrowed money to buy, who are accustomed to having maybe 20 square metres each of housing, to having their own front door, to being able to afford three meals a day and some paid-for leisure, is falling. It's falling through the floor. Many PBers don't need to be told how the market works.
It would be weird if the 2015 drop was caused by globalization or demand for labour-power or whatever, because these have been ongoing trends for decades, and I don't think there's even an obvious correlation with recessions in there.
If you google it up the issue seems to be a combination of a really bad flu outbreak and a hot summer, both of which clobbered a lot of elderly people.
Experts at Insee explained that 2015 was more of a "one-off" than a trend to be worried about, explaining the higher number of deaths by a huge influenza virus that ravaged France through the first three months of the year, claiming the lives of many over 65s.
An interesting observation on the previous thread from AndyJS on the sharp fall in the price of crude, which more than other single factor is likely to keep the inflation rate under control during the election period, thereby generating a feelgood factor were petrol prices to fall a couple of pence as a result.
But are we going to see the pre EURef 99p a litre for unleaded?
Well the oil price just dropped 10% this week, and the pound rose 2.5% against the dollar. Maybe 105p isn't out of the question in the supermarkets a couple of weeks from now, so it's not impossible another similar shift pushes unleaded under a Pound a litre in the next six weeks.
Ouch. It's difficult to see how long-term (over a decade) youth unemployment at 35-40% - with the majority of those working being on temporary contracts for a month or two - results in anything other than severe social unrest or mass emigration eventually.
The 21 year old of 2009 is now nearing 30 and probably wanting to marry and settle now. Not a good situation at all, and as you say outs the UK situation into perspective. At least we've got unemployment down to pretty much nothing, the next stage is to work on under-employment and productivity.
I can see the Lib Dems doing particularly well in seats where the Lib Dems are second to Labour. Manchester Withington is a perfect example.
It is basically a Lib Dem seat which punished the the party in 2015 for going into coalition with the Tories. It had been Lib Dem from 2005 till 2015 with the popular and hard working John Leech who is standing again.
The Tory vote is negligible and there's no chance the Labour vote will hold up. Apparently you can get 6/1! I'd put it at even money. I can't access Alastaire's chart but any seat where the Lib Dems are second to Labour must be a target.
Sorry to go straight off topic - but if Con are going to drop the tax pledge and the pensions triple lock - I wonder to what extent they have focus grouped such moves.
Cont....another seat which I know well is Edinburgh South. I can't find the odds but I'd be very surprised if Labour don't hold it. Clearly a target for Uncle Tom Cobbley and all but a very well known and popular MP should see it bucking the trend and remaining the the last Labour bastion in Scotland
Just got my passport renewed, and am glad to see that, like all my old passports, it's a nice burgundy colour. At least I'll get another ten years with that pleasant colour before idiots change it to some awful blue.
P.s.: the passport office were excellent: eight days from handing in the form at the post office to the new passport arriving. I'm waiting for the usual screams this summer from people who try to get theirs renewed two days before they're due to fly out on holiday ...
P.p.s.: I've kept all my old passports, and it's quite alarming to look at the old photos to see how a sweet young teenager has become a gnarled man.
Looking at TSE's teases about X constituency, I hope I'm not accidentally going to steal his thunder by saying which one I think will be most significant.
Sunderland Central. Yes, really. For the following reasons:
1) it will almost certainly be the first to declare (I think it has been in the last five elections) and therefore give us an indication of real votes early on;
2) It's Brexit Central and if Labour are being punished for their ambivalence and Leave swing behind May here's where we'll start to see it;
3) UKIP have a huge vote the Tories can squeeze - in theory they may only be 4,000 votes behind Labour to start, so even that 50% share and 11,000 majority for Labour flatters to deceive;
4) it is 53 years since the Tories had an MP in any part of this seat so if they win or even come close it is the sign of something truly seismic;
5) the electorate - white, working class and northern - are precisely the people Labour have ignored, belittled, humiliated and taken for granted, and may be finally ready to consider handing it back to the leadership in spades;
6) conversely, if despite all this the Tories do not advance significantly here then that is a sign they will struggle to win a large majority on the terms they have chosen to set themselves (and if they go backwards we are in NOM and Theresa May suffering a sudden nasty accident territory).
So keep eyes on this seat - and maybe manage bets based on what it shows.
I've always had a problem seeing why anyone would vote for the LDs except as a protest vote against the other two. I could be biased as I live in a constituency where the LDs have no chance at all. Still, maybe anti-Brexit will finally be a positive reason to choose them, albeit a somewhat time-limited one.
The one thing that could boost the LDs is much more exposure. If there are debates in which TMay is empty-chaired, or if they take place without her, we could see a repeat of the Cleggasm, just because they gain legitimacy by being on the same stage as the serious parties. Big ifs there though.
Just got my passport renewed, and am glad to see that, like all my old passports, it's a nice burgundy colour. At least I'll get another ten years with that pleasant colour before idiots change it to some awful blue.
P.s.: the passport office were excellent: eight days from handing in the form at the post office to the new passport arriving. I'm waiting for the usual screams this summer from people who try to get theirs renewed two days before they're due to fly out on holiday ...
P.p.s.: I've kept all my old passports, and it's quite alarming to look at the old photos to see how a sweet young teenager has become a gnarled man.
At least some people are suggesting alternate designs:
Just got my passport renewed, and am glad to see that, like all my old passports, it's a nice burgundy colour. At least I'll get another ten years with that pleasant colour before idiots change it to some awful blue.
P.s.: the passport office were excellent: eight days from handing in the form at the post office to the new passport arriving. I'm waiting for the usual screams this summer from people who try to get theirs renewed two days before they're due to fly out on holiday ...
P.p.s.: I've kept all my old passports, and it's quite alarming to look at the old photos to see how a sweet young teenager has become a gnarled man.
At least some people are suggesting alternate designs:
Yes, quite nice, although I'm unsure of the practicality.
As an aside, Mrs J has apparently had four passport colours in her life: Turkish blue, Turkish diplomatic red, Turkish civil service green, and UK burgundy.
Back on topic, thanks for the article Alistair. I mostly agree. The only possible imponderable is a real disaster for Labour which might cause large numbers of waverers (I.e. most Labour voters who can be considered sane) to flip late on - for example, a video emerging of Corbyn calling for British troops to be shot (I doubt if such a video does exist, by the way, I'm speaking hypothetically). As discussed yesterday, such genuine black swans are almost unheard of. Otherwise it's fun to play around on Baxter's model and note that theoretically on a uniform swing Labour can get half the votes and double the seats of the Liberal Democrats.
The big question might be, at what point does Labour's campaign, which hasn't got off to the best of starts, make a nonsense of UNS predictions? Because therein lies the hope for the Liberal Democrats and the vindication of Farron's strategy of an unambiguous march left.
@AndyJS The age for a bus pass will increase to 66 by 2020 in line with the retirement age unless you live in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or London where it will stay at 60.
Looking at TSE's teases about X constituency, I hope I'm not accidentally going to steal his thunder by saying which one I think will be most significant.
Sunderland Central. Yes, really. For the following reasons:
1) it will almost certainly be the first to declare (I think it has been in the last five elections) and therefore give us an indication of real votes early on;
2) It's Brexit Central and if Labour are being punished for their ambivalence and Leave swing behind May here's where we'll start to see it;
3) UKIP have a huge vote the Tories can squeeze - in theory they may only be 4,000 votes behind Labour to start, so even that 50% share and 11,000 majority for Labour flatters to deceive;
4) it is 53 years since the Tories had an MP in any part of this seat so if they win or even come close it is the sign of something truly seismic;
5) the electorate - white, working class and northern - are precisely the people Labour have ignored, belittled, humiliated and taken for granted, and may be finally ready to consider handing it back to the leadership in spades;
6) conversely, if despite all this the Tories do not advance significantly here then that is a sign they will struggle to win a large majority on the terms they have chosen to set themselves (and if they go backwards we are in NOM and Theresa May suffering a sudden nasty accident territory).
So keep eyes on this seat - and maybe manage bets based on what it shows.
It will be interesting to see if it IS planned to be first. That has only achieved by not counting the Lab vote (i.e. counting the rest and deducting those from the overall tally). They couldn't justify that approach if it was going to be close.
It will be interesting to see if it IS planned to be first. That has only achieved by not counting the Lab vote (i.e. counting the rest and deducting those from the overall tally). They couldn't justify that approach if it was going to be close.
I didn't know about their counting methods. As you say, a close result would render that impossible.
However, the idea of recounts in safe seats may keep us all waiting. As I remember Wrexham was very early last time, but that could go to the wire this time in which case it will be quite late.
Looking at TSE's teases about X constituency, I hope I'm not accidentally going to steal his thunder by saying which one I think will be most significant.
Sunderland Central. Yes, really. For the following reasons:
1) it will almost certainly be the first to declare (I think it has been in the last five elections) and therefore give us an indication of real votes early on;
2) It's Brexit Central and if Labour are being punished for their ambivalence and Leave swing behind May here's where we'll start to see it;
3) UKIP have a huge vote the Tories can squeeze - in theory they may only be 4,000 votes behind Labour to start, so even that 50% share and 11,000 majority for Labour flatters to deceive;
4) it is 53 years since the Tories had an MP in any part of this seat so if they win or even come close it is the sign of something truly seismic;
5) the electorate - white, working class and northern - are precisely the people Labour have ignored, belittled, humiliated and taken for granted, and may be finally ready to consider handing it back to the leadership in spades;
6) conversely, if despite all this the Tories do not advance significantly here then that is a sign they will struggle to win a large majority on the terms they have chosen to set themselves (and if they go backwards we are in NOM and Theresa May suffering a sudden nasty accident territory).
So keep eyes on this seat - and maybe manage bets based on what it shows.
It will be interesting to see if it IS planned to be first. That has only achieved by not counting the Lab vote (i.e. counting the rest and deducting those from the overall tally). They couldn't justify that approach if it was going to be close.
Don't see how that approach is any different to counting the Labour vote? To identify those votes that are not Labour, you would have to separate out the ones that are Labour votes.
My view is that this election has come a little too early for the Lib Dems to capitalise best on it.
I would disagree. They are likely to benefit most from Brexit being a live issue still, and from Jezza being hopeless. Neither looked likely for 2020.
All parties seem to have been caught on the hop (including the Tories who are writing their own manifesto on the hoof) but the LDs have been talking about a snap election more than the others.
Nonetheless I am with Mr Meeks on the underside of this bet on LD seat numbers. I woulld be poorer but happy to be wrong!
The expectation of a Tory Landslide is there, so perhaps the black swan is for the Tories to trip up. Already MaxPB and a few other frothers are annoyed at not seeing the axe taken to govt spending. There seems to be an inexplicable enthusiasm for May, but I detect little enthusiasm for the rest of the Tories. It is not inconceivable that the Tory campaign is as shambolic as Labour, with Fallon as the British Macron.
Looking at TSE's teases about X constituency, I hope I'm not accidentally going to steal his thunder by saying which one I think will be most significant.
Sunderland Central. Yes, really. For the following reasons:
1) it will almost certainly be the first to declare (I think it has been in the last five elections) and therefore give us an indication of real votes early on;
2) It's Brexit Central and if Labour are being punished for their ambivalence and Leave swing behind May here's where we'll start to see it;
3) UKIP have a huge vote the Tories can squeeze - in theory they may only be 4,000 votes behind Labour to start, so even that 50% share and 11,000 majority for Labour flatters to deceive;
4) it is 53 years since the Tories had an MP in any part of this seat so if they win or even come close it is the sign of something truly seismic;
5) the electorate - white, working class and northern - are precisely the people Labour have ignored, belittled, humiliated and taken for granted, and may be finally ready to consider handing it back to the leadership in spades;
6) conversely, if despite all this the Tories do not advance significantly here then that is a sign they will struggle to win a large majority on the terms they have chosen to set themselves (and if they go backwards we are in NOM and Theresa May suffering a sudden nasty accident territory).
So keep eyes on this seat - and maybe manage bets based on what it shows.
It will be interesting to see if it IS planned to be first. That has only achieved by not counting the Lab vote (i.e. counting the rest and deducting those from the overall tally). They couldn't justify that approach if it was going to be close.
Isn’t it a sort of maco thing for the City of Sunderland, though. They’ve got teams of moonlighting bank clerks .... a reducing source of course.....people who are used to counting piles of paper....... and couriers set up to grab the boxes once they;re sealed. Not sure that they don’t put thge boxes on motor bikes.
On topic, I wouldn't like to bet against Antifrank and rcs1000 on this but trying to provide the opposite perspective, what if the baseline we should be looking at is not 2015 but 2010?
The reason for saying that is that the by-elections suggest that the LibDems have largely been detoxified. I know we're not really seeing this in the national polls, and if there was actual *enthusiasm* for the LibDems then we would be, but the LibDems have tended to rise during election campaigns, as people who haven't thought much about them look at the alternatives and think, "yuck". If we've got TV debates between Farron, Corbyn, whoever is doing UKIP nowadays and an empty chair, it's not hard to see Farron coming out ahead.
Labour resources are going to be stretched pretty thin, because they'll need to put up a show of competing in the marginals, while defending a huge wodge of seats that they haven't had to defend before, so in Con-Lib marginals they're going to be pretty much invisible. That should make it easier for the LibDems to come up with good Winning Here stories to put the old progressive band back together.
If you start with a 2010 baseline you still need to knock off a chunk for first-time incumbency, and some more for residual coalition slime. But what I'm suggesting is that you shouldn't be too moved by looking at some of the enormous swings they'd need and saying, "that's ridiculous"; Part of it will be reversion to the mean from the adverse swing in 2015, which was also ridiculous.
On topic: I agree with Mr Meeks and others and have bet accordingly. However, I wouldn't dare sell the Lib Dems on an exchange. If the Lib Dems do exceed 30 seats, they could do so by a lot.
Looking at TSE's teases about X constituency, I hope I'm not accidentally going to steal his thunder by saying which one I think will be most significant.
Sunderland Central. Yes, really. For the following reasons:
1) it will almost certainly be the first to declare (I think it has been in the last five elections) and therefore give us an indication of real votes early on;
2) It's Brexit Central and if Labour are being punished for their ambivalence and Leave swing behind May here's where we'll start to see it;
3) UKIP have a huge vote the Tories can squeeze - in theory they may only be 4,000 votes behind Labour to start, so even that 50% share and 11,000 majority for Labour flatters to deceive;
4) it is 53 years since the Tories had an MP in any part of this seat so if they win or even come close it is the sign of something truly seismic;
5) the electorate - white, working class and northern - are precisely the people Labour have ignored, belittled, humiliated and taken for granted, and may be finally ready to consider handing it back to the leadership in spades;
6) conversely, if despite all this the Tories do not advance significantly here then that is a sign they will struggle to win a large majority on the terms they have chosen to set themselves (and if they go backwards we are in NOM and Theresa May suffering a sudden nasty accident territory).
So keep eyes on this seat - and maybe manage bets based on what it shows.
It will be interesting to see if it IS planned to be first. That has only achieved by not counting the Lab vote (i.e. counting the rest and deducting those from the overall tally). They couldn't justify that approach if it was going to be close.
Isn’t it a sort of maco thing for the City of Sunderland, though. They’ve got teams of moonlighting bank clerks .... a reducing source of course.....people who are used to counting piles of paper....... and couriers set up to grab the boxes once they;re sealed. Not sure that they don’t put thge boxes on motor bikes.
Yes, all that + being assisted by low turnout. The question is really whether they want to continue with what has been a great PR stunt ever since Sunderland became a city.
Well argued Alastair.I still think that UNS will be a more accurate guide to seat numbers than any special circumstances. UNS did pretty well in 2015 for all the party seat numbers..So the challenge for the Lib Dems is to push up national opinion poll ratings.To do this they will need some sharp policy statements as well as the Brexit issue.The odd defection or two would also be helpful.
On topic: I agree with Mr Meeks and others and have bet accordingly. However, I wouldn't dare sell the Lib Dems on an exchange. If the Lib Dems do exceed 30 seats, they could do so by a lot.
I am steering clear of Spin markets this time around. Far too highly geared.
From my purely 'out of touch with real people', metropolitan, bien-pensant perspective, I and most people I know intend to switch from Lab to LD. It's why I think Chestnut(?)'s assertion that Corbyn is going to do well in London is woefully off the mark.
Looking at TSE's teases about X constituency, I hope I'm not accidentally going to steal his thunder by saying which one I think will be most significant.
Sunderland Central. Yes, really. For the following reasons:
1) it will almost certainly be the first to declare (I think it has been in the last five elections) and therefore give us an indication of real votes early on;
2) It's Brexit Central and if Labour are being punished for their ambivalence and Leave swing behind May here's where we'll start to see it;
3) UKIP have a huge vote the Tories can squeeze - in theory they may only be 4,000 votes behind Labour to start, so even that 50% share and 11,000 majority for Labour flatters to deceive;
4) it is 53 years since the Tories had an MP in any part of this seat so if they win or even come close it is the sign of something truly seismic;
5) the electorate - white, working class and northern - are precisely the people Labour have ignored, belittled, humiliated and taken for granted, and may be finally ready to consider handing it back to the leadership in spades;
6) conversely, if despite all this the Tories do not advance significantly here then that is a sign they will struggle to win a large majority on the terms they have chosen to set themselves (and if they go backwards we are in NOM and Theresa May suffering a sudden nasty accident territory).
So keep eyes on this seat - and maybe manage bets based on what it shows.
It will be interesting to see if it IS planned to be first. That has only achieved by not counting the Lab vote (i.e. counting the rest and deducting those from the overall tally). They couldn't justify that approach if it was going to be close.
I had thought it would be UKIP which would be the recipient of a lot of ex-Labour votes, especially in the North. That may still be the case, but it seems to me that Farron has very skilfully made the LibDems the party of the 48 per cent. Anecdotally, virtually everyone I know on the Left is going to vote LibDem. A straw in the wind maybe, and it may not ripple much outside London. But don’t bet against a very strong LibDem revival…
Isn't Iain Dale's prediction record, being charitable, near useless other than as a contra-indicator?
My view is that this election has come a little too early for the Lib Dems to capitalise best on it.
I would disagree. They are likely to benefit most from Brexit being a live issue still, and from Jezza being hopeless. Neither looked likely for 2020.
All parties seem to have been caught on the hop (including the Tories who are writing their own manifesto on the hoof) but the LDs have been talking about a snap election more than the others.
Nonetheless I am with Mr Meeks on the underside of this bet on LD seat numbers. I woulld be poorer but happy to be wrong!
The expectation of a Tory Landslide is there, so perhaps the black swan is for the Tories to trip up. Already MaxPB and a few other frothers are annoyed at not seeing the axe taken to govt spending. There seems to be an inexplicable enthusiasm for May, but I detect little enthusiasm for the rest of the Tories. It is not inconceivable that the Tory campaign is as shambolic as Labour, with Fallon as the British Macron.
Fair enough. However the Lib Dems have not got enough momentum yet (*). Yes, they've won am important by-election and are doing well in other ways, but they're still finding it hard to get media time with everything that is going on.
Good results in the May locals would have been a good stepping-stone towards building and consolidating support over the long term.
Yes, there are the Brexit and Corbyn factors. It's just that I'm unsure that the Lib Dems are in the best position to benefit. Another year or two might be a different matter.
From my purely 'out of touch with real people', metropolitan, bien-pensant perspective, I and most people I know intend to switch from Lab to LD. It's why I think Chestnut(?)'s assertion that Corbyn is going to do well in London is woefully off the mark.
I think Corbyn will particularly collapse in London. The combination of annoyed remainers and antipathy to higher taxes is going to be particularly toxic in West London. The East will see the UKIP switchers to the Tories.
My view is that this election has come a little too early for the Lib Dems to capitalise best on it.
I would disagree. They are likely to benefit most from Brexit being a live issue still, and from Jezza being hopeless. Neither looked likely for 2020.
All parties seem to have been caught on the hop (including the Tories who are writing their own manifesto on the hoof) but the LDs have been talking about a snap election more than the others.
Nonetheless I am with Mr Meeks on the underside of this bet on LD seat numbers. I woulld be poorer but happy to be wrong!
The expectation of a Tory Landslide is there, so perhaps the black swan is for the Tories to trip up. Already MaxPB and a few other frothers are annoyed at not seeing the axe taken to govt spending. There seems to be an inexplicable enthusiasm for May, but I detect little enthusiasm for the rest of the Tories. It is not inconceivable that the Tory campaign is as shambolic as Labour, with Fallon as the British Macron.
Fair enough. However the Lib Dems have not got enough momentum yet (*). Yes, they've won am important by-election and are doing well in other ways, but they're still finding it hard to get media time with everything that is going on.
Good results in the May locals would have been a good stepping-stone towards building and consolidating support over the long term.
Yes, there are the Brexit and Corbyn factors. It's just that I'm unsure that the Lib Dems are in the best position to benefit. Another year or two might be a different matter.
(*) 'momentum' with a lower-case m
I am forecasting probably 20 LD seats (including some losses) but lots of second places.
From my purely 'out of touch with real people', metropolitan, bien-pensant perspective, I and most people I know intend to switch from Lab to LD. It's why I think Chestnut(?)'s assertion that Corbyn is going to do well in London is woefully off the mark.
It's an inner London thing, the same thing Iain Dale refers to. Large numbers of right-on middle class Londoners are wholly unreconciled to Brexit. I don't think that it will be the same outside London. But it is relevant to the constituency markets and I do think @rcs1000 has been brave with the odds he's given on his Vauxhall bets.
Looking at TSE's teases about X constituency, I hope I'm not accidentally going to steal his thunder by saying which one I think will be most significant.
Sunderland Central. Yes, really. For the following reasons:
1) it will almost certainly be the first to declare (I think it has been in the last five elections) and therefore give us an indication of real votes early on;
2) It's Brexit Central and if Labour are being punished for their ambivalence and Leave swing behind May here's where we'll start to see it;
3) UKIP have a huge vote the Tories can squeeze - in theory they may only be 4,000 votes behind Labour to start, so even that 50% share and 11,000 majority for Labour flatters to deceive;
4) it is 53 years since the Tories had an MP in any part of this seat so if they win or even come close it is the sign of something truly seismic;
5) the electorate - white, working class and northern - are precisely the people Labour have ignored, belittled, humiliated and taken for granted, and may be finally ready to consider handing it back to the leadership in spades;
6) conversely, if despite all this the Tories do not advance significantly here then that is a sign they will struggle to win a large majority on the terms they have chosen to set themselves (and if they go backwards we are in NOM and Theresa May suffering a sudden nasty accident territory).
So keep eyes on this seat - and maybe manage bets based on what it shows.
It will be interesting to see if it IS planned to be first. That has only achieved by not counting the Lab vote (i.e. counting the rest and deducting those from the overall tally). They couldn't justify that approach if it was going to be close.
Isn’t it a sort of maco thing for the City of Sunderland, though. They’ve got teams of moonlighting bank clerks .... a reducing source of course.....people who are used to counting piles of paper....... and couriers set up to grab the boxes once they;re sealed. Not sure that they don’t put thge boxes on motor bikes.
Yes, all that + being assisted by low turnout. The question is really whether they want to continue with what has been a great PR stunt ever since Sunderland became a city.
They were doing it before that; IIRC. Still great PR. Whether it would survive a new Cheif Exec or whatever the job title is, is another question Torbay used to do somthing similar, then a new Returning Officer decided it wasn’t a good diea.
The Lib Dems do have some big strategic (temporary) advantages here: Labour are led by a man as popular as a narcoleptic surgeon The Conservatives seem nailed on for victory, so it's 'safe' to vote for a None of the Above party UKIP is disintegrating No other party is full-blown pro-EU
That said, they are starting from a low base. Let's hope they retain Richmond Park.
Having sat watched labour bastions fall like nine pins at the last election I would suggest it is too early to write off the lib dems. There are a couple of signs of momentum picking up. Large number of new members, a simple message with no competition giving them airtime and confusion amongst their competitors as to how they will fight the election. If the lib dems come up with a plan on cutting tuition fees they are going to be on a roll.
Having sat watched labour bastions fall like nine pins at the last election I would suggest it is too early to write off the lib dems. There are a couple of signs of momentum picking up. Large number of new members, a simple message with no competition giving them airtime and confusion amongst their competitors as to how they will fight the election. If the lib dems come up with a plan on cutting tuition fees they are going to be on a roll.
Agree with you up to the last sentence. Tuition fees is the one subject they should studiously avoid!
I had thought it would be UKIP which would be the recipient of a lot of ex-Labour votes, especially in the North. That may still be the case, but it seems to me that Farron has very skilfully made the LibDems the party of the 48 per cent. Anecdotally, virtually everyone I know on the Left is going to vote LibDem. A straw in the wind maybe, and it may not ripple much outside London. But don’t bet against a very strong LibDem revival…
Isn't Iain Dale's prediction record, being charitable, near useless other than as a contra-indicator?
He couldn't see them dropping below 28 in 2015.....
Having sat watched labour bastions fall like nine pins at the last election I would suggest it is too early to write off the lib dems. There are a couple of signs of momentum picking up. Large number of new members, a simple message with no competition giving them airtime and confusion amongst their competitors as to how they will fight the election. If the lib dems come up with a plan on cutting tuition fees they are going to be on a roll.
You think people will believe Farron suggesting tuition fees would be cut.. .??. a hell of a mea culpa plus a promise that cannot be materialised. I don't think so. Why would the LD's shoot themselves in the foot by reminding everyone of their about turn on tuition fees?
Looking at TSE's teases about X constituency, I hope I'm not accidentally going to steal his thunder by saying which one I think will be most significant.
Sunderland Central. Yes, really. For the following reasons:
1) it will almost certainly be the first to declare (I think it has been in the last five elections) and therefore give us an indication of real votes early on;
2) It's Brexit Central and if Labour are being punished for their ambivalence and Leave swing behind May here's where we'll start to see it;
3) UKIP have a huge vote the Tories can squeeze - in theory they may only be 4,000 votes behind Labour to start, so even that 50% share and 11,000 majority for Labour flatters to deceive;
4) it is 53 years since the Tories had an MP in any part of this seat so if they win or even come close it is the sign of something truly seismic;
5) the electorate - white, working class and northern - are precisely the people Labour have ignored, belittled, humiliated and taken for granted, and may be finally ready to consider handing it back to the leadership in spades;
6) conversely, if despite all this the Tories do not advance significantly here then that is a sign they will struggle to win a large majority on the terms they have chosen to set themselves (and if they go backwards we are in NOM and Theresa May suffering a sudden nasty accident territory).
So keep eyes on this seat - and maybe manage bets based on what it shows.
Born and bred there and remember when the south seat was Tory until '64. I'd be wary - it won't swing like the rest of the North or the Midlands. They can be very dumb up there.
Expect to see a larger than polled rise in Lib Dem share as protest voters who went to UKIP as the "none of the above" voters return 'home'. This may not equate to a lot of seats though.
I had thought it would be UKIP which would be the recipient of a lot of ex-Labour votes, especially in the North. That may still be the case, but it seems to me that Farron has very skilfully made the LibDems the party of the 48 per cent. Anecdotally, virtually everyone I know on the Left is going to vote LibDem. A straw in the wind maybe, and it may not ripple much outside London. But don’t bet against a very strong LibDem revival…
Isn't Iain Dale's prediction record, being charitable, near useless other than as a contra-indicator?
He couldn't see them dropping below 28 in 2015.....
I think Iain Dale is still scarred by his 2005 defeat to Norman Lamb, when he turned a Lib Dem majority of 483 into a Lib Dem majority of over 10,000 in North Norfolk.
Looking at TSE's teases about X constituency, I hope I'm not accidentally going to steal his thunder by saying which one I think will be most significant.
Sunderland Central. Yes, really. For the following reasons:
1) it will almost certainly be the first to declare (I think it has been in the last five elections) and therefore give us an indication of real votes early on;
2) It's Brexit Central and if Labour are being punished for their ambivalence and Leave swing behind May here's where we'll start to see it;
3) UKIP have a huge vote the Tories can squeeze - in theory they may only be 4,000 votes behind Labour to start, so even that 50% share and 11,000 majority for Labour flatters to deceive;
4) it is 53 years since the Tories had an MP in any part of this seat so if they win or even come close it is the sign of something truly seismic;
5) the electorate - white, working class and northern - are precisely the people Labour have ignored, belittled, humiliated and taken for granted, and may be finally ready to consider handing it back to the leadership in spades;
6) conversely, if despite all this the Tories do not advance significantly here then that is a sign they will struggle to win a large majority on the terms they have chosen to set themselves (and if they go backwards we are in NOM and Theresa May suffering a sudden nasty accident territory).
So keep eyes on this seat - and maybe manage bets based on what it shows.
It will be interesting to see if it IS planned to be first. That has only achieved by not counting the Lab vote (i.e. counting the rest and deducting those from the overall tally). They couldn't justify that approach if it was going to be close.
Isn’t it a sort of maco thing for the City of Sunderland, though. They’ve got teams of moonlighting bank clerks .... a reducing source of course.....people who are used to counting piles of paper....... and couriers set up to grab the boxes once they;re sealed. Not sure that they don’t put thge boxes on motor bikes.
They certainly have counters who know what they're doing, along with a huge team of students to run boxes around. It's a pretty slick operation, but I'd take a guess that if the result is anything but a foregone conclusion someone will ask for a proper full recount.
Having sat watched labour bastions fall like nine pins at the last election I would suggest it is too early to write off the lib dems. There are a couple of signs of momentum picking up. Large number of new members, a simple message with no competition giving them airtime and confusion amongst their competitors as to how they will fight the election. If the lib dems come up with a plan on cutting tuition fees they are going to be on a roll.
You think people will believe Farron suggesting tuition fees would be cut.. .??. a hell of a mea culpa plus a promise that cannot be materialised. I don't think so. Why would the LD's shoot themselves in the foot by reminding everyone of their about turn on tuition fees?
Good luck with that one!
Not Tim Farron's policy to raise them initially. High risk I agree but the students looking for the lib dems to say sorry.
From my purely 'out of touch with real people', metropolitan, bien-pensant perspective, I and most people I know intend to switch from Lab to LD. It's why I think Chestnut(?)'s assertion that Corbyn is going to do well in London is woefully off the mark.
I think you're right and you can include various university towns where the same applies. Anecdotally like Ian Dale I know of no Labour voting Remainer who isn't going to switch.
Having sat watched labour bastions fall like nine pins at the last election I would suggest it is too early to write off the lib dems. There are a couple of signs of momentum picking up. Large number of new members, a simple message with no competition giving them airtime and confusion amongst their competitors as to how they will fight the election. If the lib dems come up with a plan on cutting tuition fees they are going to be on a roll.
Tuition fees are a subject to be avoided, probably by all parties as none have clean hands, but for LDs it is a probity issue.
Fox jr and his girlfriend are voting LD (she was a Labour party member) but largely because of Europe and Internationalism generally. Tuition fees are yesterdays grievance.
Having sat watched labour bastions fall like nine pins at the last election I would suggest it is too early to write off the lib dems. There are a couple of signs of momentum picking up. Large number of new members, a simple message with no competition giving them airtime and confusion amongst their competitors as to how they will fight the election. If the lib dems come up with a plan on cutting tuition fees they are going to be on a roll.
You think people will believe Farron suggesting tuition fees would be cut.. .??. a hell of a mea culpa plus a promise that cannot be materialised. I don't think so. Why would the LD's shoot themselves in the foot by reminding everyone of their about turn on tuition fees?
Good luck with that one!
Not Tim Farron's policy to raise them initially. High risk I agree but the students looking for the lib dems to say sorry.
The youngest students in 2010 are 25 now. Life's moved on.
Having sat watched labour bastions fall like nine pins at the last election I would suggest it is too early to write off the lib dems. There are a couple of signs of momentum picking up. Large number of new members, a simple message with no competition giving them airtime and confusion amongst their competitors as to how they will fight the election. If the lib dems come up with a plan on cutting tuition fees they are going to be on a roll.
You think people will believe Farron suggesting tuition fees would be cut.. .??. a hell of a mea culpa plus a promise that cannot be materialised. I don't think so. Why would the LD's shoot themselves in the foot by reminding everyone of their about turn on tuition fees?
Good luck with that one!
Not Tim Farron's policy to raise them initially. High risk I agree but the students looking for the lib dems to say sorry.
Things may well be different in Scotland on the issue, but in England let sleeping dogs lie.
Farron in the debates may come over well. May will either be repellent or absent and Farron works a crowd well.
Just as a distraction, are we done with French coverage (official, I mean) now? Will we get any more polls, or is it a case of just waiting and seeing what happens?
From my purely 'out of touch with real people', metropolitan, bien-pensant perspective, I and most people I know intend to switch from Lab to LD. It's why I think Chestnut(?)'s assertion that Corbyn is going to do well in London is woefully off the mark.
I think you're right and you can include various university towns where the same applies. Anecdotally like Ian Dale I know of no Labour voting Remainer who isn't going to switch.
Do we really expect the Provencal switchers to impact heavily on the Lab/LD vote?
Having sat watched labour bastions fall like nine pins at the last election I would suggest it is too early to write off the lib dems. There are a couple of signs of momentum picking up. Large number of new members, a simple message with no competition giving them airtime and confusion amongst their competitors as to how they will fight the election. If the lib dems come up with a plan on cutting tuition fees they are going to be on a roll.
You think people will believe Farron suggesting tuition fees would be cut.. .??. a hell of a mea culpa plus a promise that cannot be materialised. I don't think so. Why would the LD's shoot themselves in the foot by reminding everyone of their about turn on tuition fees?
Good luck with that one!
Not Tim Farron's policy to raise them initially. High risk I agree but the students looking for the lib dems to say sorry.
The youngest students in 2010 are 25 now. Life's moved on.
Just as a distraction, are we done with French coverage (official, I mean) now? Will we get any more polls, or is it a case of just waiting and seeing what happens?
They have a contemplation day without campaigning I seem to remember. Looking at the various options I'd probably do my contemplating and reach the conclusion, merde!
Carshalton and Wallington is one lib dem seat being affected by more than Brexit. Tom Brake looks in trouble especially if UKIP dont put a candidate up(7000 last time) He only won by 1500 in 2015 and the constituency voted by a decent margin to leave.
Just as a distraction, are we done with French coverage (official, I mean) now? Will we get any more polls, or is it a case of just waiting and seeing what happens?
I think the last French published polls were yesterday, none further permitted. Indeed I think even campaigning is banned until Monday.
Morning everyone. BBC Parliament are showing the Election 97 on May by. It will be interesting to show the retreat Lab has made from their high water mark only 20 years ago.
Morning everyone. BBC Parliament are showing the Election 97 on May by. It will be interesting to show the retreat Lab has made from their high water mark only 20 years ago.
They scrapped that earlier this week. It should be on their twitter feed if you want proper confirmation.
Morning everyone. BBC Parliament are showing the Election 97 on May by. It will be interesting to show the retreat Lab has made from their high water mark only 20 years ago.
Didn't they say last week that they had to cancel it, due to being in the campaign period?
Having sat watched labour bastions fall like nine pins at the last election I would suggest it is too early to write off the lib dems. There are a couple of signs of momentum picking up. Large number of new members, a simple message with no competition giving them airtime and confusion amongst their competitors as to how they will fight the election. If the lib dems come up with a plan on cutting tuition fees they are going to be on a roll.
You think people will believe Farron suggesting tuition fees would be cut.. .??. a hell of a mea culpa plus a promise that cannot be materialised. I don't think so. Why would the LD's shoot themselves in the foot by reminding everyone of their about turn on tuition fees?
Good luck with that one!
Not Tim Farron's policy to raise them initially. High risk I agree but the students looking for the lib dems to say sorry.
The youngest students in 2010 are 25 now. Life's moved on.
But the debts could still be very much alive...
I know plenty of students around that age in very well paid jobs who barely notice the payments and have worked out that whilst they technically owe a huge amount they'll either pay it off with their minimal payments or it will get written off.
Carshalton and Wallington is one lib dem seat being affected by more than Brexit. Tom Brake looks in trouble especially if UKIP dont put a candidate up(7000 last time) He only won by 1500 in 2015 and the constituency voted by a decent margin to leave.
There is a Labour vote to be squeezed by the LDs too. No LD seat can truly be regarded as safe though, one reason that gains are likely to be tempered by losses.
Morning everyone. BBC Parliament are showing the Election 97 on May by. It will be interesting to show the retreat Lab has made from their high water mark only 20 years ago.
They scrapped that earlier this week. It should be on their twitter feed if you want proper confirmation.
Just got my passport renewed, and am glad to see that, like all my old passports, it's a nice burgundy colour. At least I'll get another ten years with that pleasant colour before idiots change it to some awful blue.
P.s.: the passport office were excellent: eight days from handing in the form at the post office to the new passport arriving. I'm waiting for the usual screams this summer from people who try to get theirs renewed two days before they're due to fly out on holiday ...
P.p.s.: I've kept all my old passports, and it's quite alarming to look at the old photos to see how a sweet young teenager has become a gnarled man.
It's a real eye-opener to see old passport and driving licences. There are a couple of lads on my watch, mid 20s, been in the job a few years now and passed their diving tests at 17. Their driving licences are a source of much amusement- they look so young, almost childlike compared to the strapping miserable firemen they have morphed into!
A good thread. Talk of significant LibDem gains need some very special pleading. I can just about see it terms of LibDems-Labour marginals with a Corbyn-induced Labour melt-down - but even then, there are precious few of those marginals.
And the Tories in LibDems targets are going to be fighting like wildcats to keep them, with the full assistance of the Conservative Party. The physical concentration of so many of them in the SW makes it difficult for them to fight all those seats, so they need to target a handful. And it will depend who the local candidate will be. In Torbay for example, the previous LibDems MP Adrian Sanders has announced he will not be their candidate, despite being handily re-elected as a local councillor. In Bath, the seat was partly lost in 2015 because the long-term LibDems MP stood down. Laws is not standing again in Yeovil. Etc. You have a bunch of new candidates still finding their way with the local voters.
And even if the internal Tory polling did show seats being lost to the LibDems in expenses-related by-elections, I'm not sure that polling holds up in a general. Nationally, the LibDems have not moved ahead as fast as the Tories have since 2015. They are still playing catch-up.
As an aside, probably the person most pissed off about an early election must be Zac Goldsmith. Hard to see him losing a 22k majority in a national. If only he had waited.....
Morning everyone. BBC Parliament are showing the Election 97 on May by. It will be interesting to show the retreat Lab has made from their high water mark only 20 years ago.
They scrapped that earlier this week. It should be on their twitter feed if you want proper confirmation.
Bugger. I was looking forward to that.
As was I. Hopefully they'll use a weekend over the summer recess to catch up.
Morning everyone. BBC Parliament are showing the Election 97 on May by. It will be interesting to show the retreat Lab has made from their high water mark only 20 years ago.
They scrapped that earlier this week. It should be on their twitter feed if you want proper confirmation.
Bugger. I was looking forward to that.
I think they are all on youtube, although not the same as having it on the TV.
Carshalton and Wallington is one lib dem seat being affected by more than Brexit. Tom Brake looks in trouble especially if UKIP dont put a candidate up(7000 last time) He only won by 1500 in 2015 and the constituency voted by a decent margin to leave.
There is a Labour vote to be squeezed by the LDs too. No LD seat can truly be regarded as safe though, one reason that gains are likely to be tempered by losses.
There is a LD council as well which he has failed to criticise over this debacle and its coming home to roost. Not all lab supporters in the area voted remain!!
Morning everyone. BBC Parliament are showing the Election 97 on May by. It will be interesting to show the retreat Lab has made from their high water mark only 20 years ago.
They scrapped that earlier this week. It should be on their twitter feed if you want proper confirmation.
Bugger. I was looking forward to that.
As was I. Hopefully they'll use a weekend over the summer recess to catch up.
From my purely 'out of touch with real people', metropolitan, bien-pensant perspective, I and most people I know intend to switch from Lab to LD. It's why I think Chestnut(?)'s assertion that Corbyn is going to do well in London is woefully off the mark.
I think you're right and you can include various university towns where the same applies. Anecdotally like Ian Dale I know of no Labour voting Remainer who isn't going to switch.
Do we really expect the Provencal switchers to impact heavily on the Lab/LD vote?
I was speaking to some French people yesterday who thought this election was a referendum on the EU. They had bought Threresa May's line that this was an election about Brexit.
I tried to explain it was nothing of the kind but rather a question of whether we could vote for a PM who was a donkey. It became too complicated and I didn't know the french for donkey but it hasn't yet permeated Provence that Corbyn isn't a possible PM on any known yardstick.
Perhaps when they have less troubles of their own they might glance over the channel and see things for what they are
Comments
Sorry to go straight off topic - but if Con are going to drop the tax pledge and the pensions triple lock - I wonder to what extent they have focus grouped such moves.
Fifth, the scale of a Liberal Democrat revival from Remain voters is fairly small at the time of wave 10, only 10% of Labour Remain voters and 8% of Conservative Remain voters had defected to the Liberal Democrats.
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/has-brexit-broken-british-voting/#.WPq9c1Slaf2
So is British politics realigning? The EU referendum has certainly stirred voters up even more than would be expected in the volatile modern electoral environment. The Conservatives do look set to become the dominant party of Leave voters, but there is no one party that is currently consolidating Remain voters. Whether this merely reflects the popularity of Theresa May compared with Jeremy Corbyn’s lukewarm (at best) support or a permanent shift in British party politics remains to be seen.
The best, i.e. highest fixing price for a down bet is William Hill's 29.5 seats, which means you collect at odds of 5/6 should the Yellow team end up with fewer than 30 MPs. This dovetails in beautifully with the bet I suggested at 8/1 with Ladbrokes (now 4/1) on the LibDems winning between 30 - 39 seats - so unless they win 40 or more seats I'm on a certain winner.
With that, I'm retiring to bed a happy man.
An interesting observation on the previous thread from AndyJS on the sharp fall in the price of crude, which more than other single factor is likely to keep the inflation rate under control during the election period, thereby generating a feelgood factor were petrol prices to fall a couple of pence as a result.
Demand for the labour-power of working class people who expect to live in houses they've borrowed money to buy, who are accustomed to having maybe 20 square metres each of housing, to having their own front door, to being able to afford three meals a day and some paid-for leisure, is falling. It's falling through the floor. Many PBers don't need to be told how the market works.
Can anyone guess the following (By % of the seat vote) ?
a) Tory remainers
b) Labour leavers.
c) UKIP remainers
d) SNP leavers
In either case it's not the job of focus groups to tell parties what their policies should be - they can help with the presentation of policy- but the people who decide it should be politicians - and any who rely on focus groups to tell them what to do should be taken out and shot.
I had thought it would be UKIP which would be the recipient of a lot of ex-Labour votes, especially in the North. That may still be the case, but it seems to me that Farron has very skilfully made the LibDems the party of the 48 per cent. Anecdotally, virtually everyone I know on the Left is going to vote LibDem. A straw in the wind maybe, and it may not ripple much outside London. But don’t bet against a very strong LibDem revival…
I still don't think Macron will get to R2. Even on those Ipsos figures, his vote is almost as flaky as Mélenchon's and a lot less flaky than Fillon's.
And whoever gets to R2, there are likely to be street disturbances over the Mayday weekend. That may work against there being a large number of abstentions. On the other hand, the viewing figures for Friday's TV show that gave 15 minutes to each candidate in an interview format were low.
Today I learnt: although official turnout in 2012 increased between R1 and R2, from 79.5% to 80.4%, those figures are highly misleading, because they count spoilt and null ballot papers as if they were votes! And "spoilt and null" increased from 0.7 million in R1 to 2.2 million in R2. REAL turnout, that is the number of valid votes as a proportion of registered voters, FELL from 78.0% to 75.3%.
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21721219-segmented-labour-markets-have-scarred-young-jobseekers-workers-southern-europe-are-stuck
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=FR
It would be weird if the 2015 drop was caused by globalization or demand for labour-power or whatever, because these have been ongoing trends for decades, and I don't think there's even an obvious correlation with recessions in there.
If you google it up the issue seems to be a combination of a really bad flu outbreak and a hot summer, both of which clobbered a lot of elderly people.
The 21 year old of 2009 is now nearing 30 and probably wanting to marry and settle now. Not a good situation at all, and as you say outs the UK situation into perspective. At least we've got unemployment down to pretty much nothing, the next stage is to work on under-employment and productivity.
It is basically a Lib Dem seat which punished the the party in 2015 for going into coalition with the Tories. It had been Lib Dem from 2005 till 2015 with the popular and hard working John Leech who is standing again.
The Tory vote is negligible and there's no chance the Labour vote will hold up. Apparently you can get 6/1! I'd put it at even money. I can't access Alastaire's chart but any seat where the Lib Dems are second to Labour must be a target.
Matthew Parris
This election will see the triumph of a more aggressive, nationalistic party — and it’s not clear the PM will resist it"
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/tories-drift-to-the-right-may-be-unstoppable-xldrlk9zq
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/revealed-the-controversial-labour-campaign-canned-before-it-was-even-launched/ar-BBA8prW?li=AAmiR2Z&ocid=spartandhp
Just got my passport renewed, and am glad to see that, like all my old passports, it's a nice burgundy colour. At least I'll get another ten years with that pleasant colour before idiots change it to some awful blue.
P.s.: the passport office were excellent: eight days from handing in the form at the post office to the new passport arriving. I'm waiting for the usual screams this summer from people who try to get theirs renewed two days before they're due to fly out on holiday ...
P.p.s.: I've kept all my old passports, and it's quite alarming to look at the old photos to see how a sweet young teenager has become a gnarled man.
Sunderland Central. Yes, really. For the following reasons:
1) it will almost certainly be the first to declare (I think it has been in the last five elections) and therefore give us an indication of real votes early on;
2) It's Brexit Central and if Labour are being punished for their ambivalence and Leave swing behind May here's where we'll start to see it;
3) UKIP have a huge vote the Tories can squeeze - in theory they may only be 4,000 votes behind Labour to start, so even that 50% share and 11,000 majority for Labour flatters to deceive;
4) it is 53 years since the Tories had an MP in any part of this seat so if they win or even come close it is the sign of something truly seismic;
5) the electorate - white, working class and northern - are precisely the people Labour have ignored, belittled, humiliated and taken for granted, and may be finally ready to consider handing it back to the leadership in spades;
6) conversely, if despite all this the Tories do not advance significantly here then that is a sign they will struggle to win a large majority on the terms they have chosen to set themselves (and if they go backwards we are in NOM and Theresa May suffering a sudden nasty accident territory).
So keep eyes on this seat - and maybe manage bets based on what it shows.
I've always had a problem seeing why anyone would vote for the LDs except as a protest vote against the other two. I could be biased as I live in a constituency where the LDs have no chance at all. Still, maybe anti-Brexit will finally be a positive reason to choose them, albeit a somewhat time-limited one.
The one thing that could boost the LDs is much more exposure. If there are debates in which TMay is empty-chaired, or if they take place without her, we could see a repeat of the Cleggasm, just because they gain legitimacy by being on the same stage as the serious parties. Big ifs there though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlIaHyI-CCA
I like the white one, reminds me of Norway's.
My view is that this election has come a little too early for the Lib Dems to capitalise best on it.
As an aside, Mrs J has apparently had four passport colours in her life: Turkish blue, Turkish diplomatic red, Turkish civil service green, and UK burgundy.
I bet some PBers can beat that.
The big question might be, at what point does Labour's campaign, which hasn't got off to the best of starts, make a nonsense of UNS predictions? Because therein lies the hope for the Liberal Democrats and the vindication of Farron's strategy of an unambiguous march left.
The age for a bus pass will increase to 66 by 2020 in line with the retirement age unless you live in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or London where it will stay at 60.
However, the idea of recounts in safe seats may keep us all waiting. As I remember Wrexham was very early last time, but that could go to the wire this time in which case it will be quite late.
All parties seem to have been caught on the hop (including the Tories who are writing their own manifesto on the hoof) but the LDs have been talking about a snap election more than the others.
Nonetheless I am with Mr Meeks on the underside of this bet on LD seat numbers. I woulld be poorer but happy to be wrong!
The expectation of a Tory Landslide is there, so perhaps the black swan is for the Tories to trip up. Already MaxPB and a few other frothers are annoyed at not seeing the axe taken to govt spending. There seems to be an inexplicable enthusiasm for May, but I detect little enthusiasm for the rest of the Tories. It is not inconceivable that the Tory campaign is as shambolic as Labour, with Fallon as the British Macron.
The reason for saying that is that the by-elections suggest that the LibDems have largely been detoxified. I know we're not really seeing this in the national polls, and if there was actual *enthusiasm* for the LibDems then we would be, but the LibDems have tended to rise during election campaigns, as people who haven't thought much about them look at the alternatives and think, "yuck". If we've got TV debates between Farron, Corbyn, whoever is doing UKIP nowadays and an empty chair, it's not hard to see Farron coming out ahead.
Labour resources are going to be stretched pretty thin, because they'll need to put up a show of competing in the marginals, while defending a huge wodge of seats that they haven't had to defend before, so in Con-Lib marginals they're going to be pretty much invisible. That should make it easier for the LibDems to come up with good Winning Here stories to put the old progressive band back together.
If you start with a 2010 baseline you still need to knock off a chunk for first-time incumbency, and some more for residual coalition slime. But what I'm suggesting is that you shouldn't be too moved by looking at some of the enormous swings they'd need and saying, "that's ridiculous"; Part of it will be reversion to the mean from the adverse swing in 2015, which was also ridiculous.
Good results in the May locals would have been a good stepping-stone towards building and consolidating support over the long term.
Yes, there are the Brexit and Corbyn factors. It's just that I'm unsure that the Lib Dems are in the best position to benefit. Another year or two might be a different matter.
(*) 'momentum' with a lower-case m
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39671843
However, I can understand why the government are not making more of it with RBS still costing us gazillions.
But the country's largest bank apparently well on the way to a full recovery is definitely progress.
The Lib Dems do have some big strategic (temporary) advantages here:
Labour are led by a man as popular as a narcoleptic surgeon
The Conservatives seem nailed on for victory, so it's 'safe' to vote for a None of the Above party
UKIP is disintegrating
No other party is full-blown pro-EU
That said, they are starting from a low base. Let's hope they retain Richmond Park.
You think people will believe Farron suggesting tuition fees would be cut.. .??. a hell of a mea culpa plus a promise that cannot be materialised.
I don't think so. Why would the LD's shoot themselves in the foot by reminding everyone of their about turn on tuition fees?
Good luck with that one!
https://youtube.com/watch?v=SknYTQcPGFg
Fox jr and his girlfriend are voting LD (she was a Labour party member) but largely because of Europe and Internationalism generally. Tuition fees are yesterdays grievance.
Farron in the debates may come over well. May will either be repellent or absent and Farron works a crowd well.
Such a vote would incentivise the EU to offer Britain a lousy deal in the hope that this would be rejected.
That does not however necessarily equate to our remaining in the EU and could in fact result in leaving without a deal.
Either way, the country could lose out as a consequence of these shenanigans.
He only won by 1500 in 2015 and the constituency voted by a decent margin to leave.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4432326/Furious-residents-compare-rubbish-Winter-Discontent.html
https://twitter.com/MacronInEnglish/status/855521098934431750
BBC Parliament are showing the Election 97 on May by.
It will be interesting to show the retreat Lab has made from their high water mark only 20 years ago.
Mr. Gadfly, I agree entirely.
Hope things are quiet in France.
I was looking forward to that.
And the Tories in LibDems targets are going to be fighting like wildcats to keep them, with the full assistance of the Conservative Party. The physical concentration of so many of them in the SW makes it difficult for them to fight all those seats, so they need to target a handful. And it will depend who the local candidate will be. In Torbay for example, the previous LibDems MP Adrian Sanders has announced he will not be their candidate, despite being handily re-elected as a local councillor. In Bath, the seat was partly lost in 2015 because the long-term LibDems MP stood down. Laws is not standing again in Yeovil. Etc. You have a bunch of new candidates still finding their way with the local voters.
And even if the internal Tory polling did show seats being lost to the LibDems in expenses-related by-elections, I'm not sure that polling holds up in a general. Nationally, the LibDems have not moved ahead as fast as the Tories have since 2015. They are still playing catch-up.
As an aside, probably the person most pissed off about an early election must be Zac Goldsmith. Hard to see him losing a 22k majority in a national. If only he had waited.....
I tried to explain it was nothing of the kind but rather a question of whether we could vote for a PM who was a donkey. It became too complicated and I didn't know the french for donkey but it hasn't yet permeated Provence that Corbyn isn't a possible PM on any known yardstick.
Perhaps when they have less troubles of their own they might glance over the channel and see things for what they are