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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories take a stonking 21% lead with ComRes poll, up 4% in mon
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories take a stonking 21% lead with ComRes poll, up 4% in month
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That Labour floor of 25 is still really solid looking though. #silver linings
But yep, Labour cannot fall any further, bar the occasional percent, that's clear - We've reached peak Corbyn toxification, and 1 in 4 of the electorate love him or love Labour so much they don't care about him.
It's funny that a 9% deficit to the Tories is the good news story.
Corbyn's not good for democracy. Imagine he's there in 2020. The election night results show would be the modern equivalent of listening to Murray Walker commentate on the Battle of Cannae.
Edited extra bit: to paraphrase the man himself - "There's nothing wrong with Labour, except that it's on fire."
If association with Corbyn appears to have little impact, there's little point in changing the party leader, looks as though it is the Labour brand that's tarnished.
Lab 25% (NC)
LD 11% (-1)
UKIP 9% (-1)
SNP 4% (-1)
Green 4% (NC)
Other 2% (NC)
A contender for the Rab C Nesbit Thicker than Mince Award.
They seem to have narrowed the gap somewhat here, and they suffer even more than Ferrari relative to Mercedes in qualifying.
Still odds against but there is a real chance the odds will decline to layable levels in a few races.
The Tories are polling 46% but only 32% of voters disagree that he's a hindrance as Foreign Secretary.
This seems quite tempting, as he is unlikely to finish the race due to not starting it.
Edited extra bit: 99% chance it'll be null and void, though.
If Labour fall 20% behind in the opinion polls.
41% Jeremy should continue as leader
47% Jeremy should not continue as leader
12% Don't Know
but if you bring the con vote down to 45% then it predicts an 148 seat tory majority! LOL
Of course almost everyone is going to say Yes.
But many, many people saying Yes will be highly sceptical as to whether the policy could actually be carried out in practice.
So support for the policy will not translate into support for Labour.
In any case people don't vote for policies - they vote on general impression of a Party and its leader.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C3RM4DCXAAEieba.jpg
What has PB come to ? .... next we'll all be wearing red shoes when we post !!!!
I can't imagine any Tories wanting to join any breakaway. They're in seats which may benefit from 46% support across the country after all.
We are talking about an ELE.
Edit: And a 1% Con lead in the North.
Mr. kle4, that's true. And the problem.
They're devoted to a brand, to merchandising, to the sign above the shop.
Another side-effect of what happens when you conflate politics with morality.
"centre ground" (a meaningless term at the best of times, but whatever) party. The real issue is that Corbyn isn't particularly good at politics.
No, it seems like MPs have made the calculation that the Labour floor is sufficient to see them survive as a party, and that if the polls are borne out, they can regroup afterward, however painful that may be. Better that than oppose the party by formally opposing Corbyn.
It's not without risk, but it handily means they don't have to take that plunge themselves either.
I believe that pollsters re simply finding it hard to tempt out shy labour voters now.
Plus Corbyn is crap doesn't quite cover the majesty of a 21% Tory lead.
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/853293206129135617
If they plan to take over the Lib.Dems and draw in Wollaston, Soubry, Clarke and Lords Heseltine, Deben, Patten, etc it would have to be the Centre Party. That is overambitious. Most of the Labour 'homeless' are moderate centre-left, the mirror image of moderate centre-right people like Patten.
Betting PostBacked Vettel to win at 5 on Betfair, hedged at evens.
May offer another tip, unsure. But thought I'd mention this now.
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/853299016456646656
In all honesty, there are plenty of reasons to be wary of entrusting too much to polling of course, but we inherently tend to take it in nevertheless. But when people dismiss it all as lies (brainwashing the public to a state akin to stockholm syndrome or mafia kidnapping according to comments I saw today), you know for a fact when things turn in their favour they'll be the first to trumpet that to the hills and beyond.
https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2017/04/is-the-conservative-lead-21-points-or-9-points.html/
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/06/15/jim-murphy-farewell-speech-snp-referendum_n_7585574.html?utm_hp_ref=jim-murphy
" He urged them to remember the “first law of politics”: “Voters never get it wrong.”
“When you lose on the scale that we did this year then some reflection is needed,” he said. “If you decide to blame the voters, you’re wrong.
“To wrest power from a Tory majority, Labour must do what it has always done when it wins a majority - win Tory seats by winning Tory votes. ”
When was a 21% lead last seen, sometime in the mid nineties under Blair?
Of course, methodologies have changed. But it's striking nonetheless.
The contest on 4 May has so far seen Lib Dems zoom from 4.2% of vote in 2015 to 31% because of issues around Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/15/lib-dems-make-serious-gains-in-manchester-gorton-byelection?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
oh
:-)
One thing's for sure, they are playing it safe with their expectations management - I guess having pulled off Richmond, it's worth stoking the optimism.
With the boundary changes Labour would lose a total of 29 seats, the Tories only 12 based on 2005 results.
If Labour can't win in Scotland and the Tories can now win some seats there, Labour might never win a General Election again.
I think their floor is about 15%, Corbyn might be ousted in May next year if Labour lose a large number of London council seats.