I expect the SNP to win the election as they have won every democratic contest in Scotland since 2010.
Well yes of course they will be the largest party. But they won't get a plurality. Will they gain more Councillors than the Tories? That was the question.
There is plenty of scope for Ruth to recover from leading SCons to their worst ever council elections performance in 2012.
The SNP will indeed win a plurality of councillors.
I am not sure you know what a plurality means perhaps because the Tories are more used to being a minority, albeit one which presumes to tell Scotland what to do.
"Plurality (voting), the most votes for any choice in an election, but not necessarily a majority"
The SNP will get that. To gain an absolute majority in an STV system with independents standing as well as political parties would be virtually impossible - much more difficult that a majority under FPP or indeed even the incredibly difficult majority under a list system which Salmond miraculously pulled off in 2011.
I repeat the SNP will win the election as they have won every contest since 2010.
You are forgetting the big one...
Doesn't count - they got the answer wrong so it's a re-do....
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Quite.
Labour cheerleaders are now keeping their fingers crossed for soft Brexit because they think it will anger the Tory right and split the party.
They fail to understand that:
- The Tory right care far more about British laws and sovereignty than they think. - The Tory right care far less about atlanticism than they think. - The Tory right care quite a lot more for Mrs May than Cameron/Osborne - The Tory traditionalists are going to win on domestic issues such as grammar schools in the coming years. Given the Venn diagram of Tory right and Tory traditionalists is almost a perfect circle, this will assuage any slight issues they may have on trade relations.
For purely partisan purposes, Labour cheerleaders should be hoping for the hardest of hard.
Edit to add:
In short, Mrs May is a far more typical Tory leader than Cameron could ever have been. Appealing to all parts of the party for different reasons.
I note that you cannot find it in yourself to believe that people who do not share your vision of Brexit also want what they believe is best for the UK. In the end, this is what will do for the right. They do not own my country's flag.
No, SO, we all know you mean well. You're a thoroughly decent old stick, and a much nicer person than many of the rest of us.
You're just wrong.
Tis always the way, isn't it?
The right think the left are good people with bad ideas.
The left think the right are bad people..
If PB is anything to go by, the right seems to believe that the left is made up of traitors who hate the UK.
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Quite.
Labour cheerleaders are now keeping their fingers crossed for soft Brexit because they think it will anger the Tory right and split the party.
They fail to understand that:
- The Tory right care far more about British laws and sovereignty than they think. - The Tory right care far less about atlanticism than they think. - The Tory right care quite a lot more for Mrs May than Cameron/Osborne - The Tory traditionalists are going to win on domestic issues such as grammar schools in the coming years. Given the Venn diagram of Tory right and Tory traditionalists is almost a perfect circle, this will assuage any slight issues they may have on trade relations.
For purely partisan purposes, Labour cheerleaders should be hoping for the hardest of hard.
Edit to add:
In short, Mrs May is a far more typical Tory leader than Cameron could ever have been. Appealing to all parts of the party for different reasons.
I note that you cannot find it in yourself to believe that people who do not share your vision of Brexit also want what they believe is best for the UK. In the end, this is what will do for the right. They do not own my country's flag.
No, SO, we all know you mean well. You're a thoroughly decent old stick, and a much nicer person than many of the rest of us.
You're just wrong.
Tis always the way, isn't it?
The right think the left are good people with bad ideas.
The left think the right are bad people..
If PB is anything to go by, the right seems to believe that the left is made up of traitors who hate the UK.
That's the swivel eyed, Atlanticist, Europe hating, alt right to you
No, SO, we all know you mean well. You're a thoroughly decent old stick, and a much nicer person than many of the rest of us.
You're just wrong.
I think there will only be a resolution when Remainers accept there is no way back to the EU and Leavers accept they made a mistake. Not necessarily wrong on the principle, but wrong in their assumptions about Brexit, and in particular the one of taking back control. The EU will still be there as the only deal that counts in Europe; we will still need a relationship with it just as much as before, But it will be a much more deferential relationship where in practice we accept whatever the EU decides rather than being part of the decision-making. We're seeing that already with the Article 50 talks.
The single market is our largest destination for exports.
The EU has been rapidly declining as a share of our overall export markets over the past decade, a trend that was very likely to continue regardless of Brexit.
The salient point is that our trade imbalance with the EU had widened rapidly up to the point of Brexit, such that if the overall volume of trade falls post Brexit (as I expect it will) the opportunities for UK based companies to take up new opportunities in UK domestic markets should more than outweigh the impact of lost markets on the continent. The risks arising from the loss of trade fall on the EU side, since for them the reverse is true i.e. closing down a previously expanding market for EU exports, with fewer additional opportunities in EU domestic markets if British firms withdraw.
Or, to put it more succinctly, the UK trade deficit which at Brexit stood at record levels as a share of GDP, would all but disappear if trade with the EU were removed from the equation.
the whole of Europe is in decline
when I was born ( 1961 ) Europeans were about 20% of people on the planet by the time I die - say in the 2050s- they will be about 5%
As another '61er that is a fantastic stat I am going to pinch.
I'm guessing the UK's 'decline' will be of a similar ratio, though obviously a much smaller fraction of the world total. Of course losing 8% of your population in one swoop would be a bit of a jolt..
I think that the UK's population has grown much more rapidly that the European average, largely as a result of mass migration. Scotland has seen very little of that which in some ways is a pity.
Since 1960:
UK 52 -> 66 million France 47 -> 67 million Spain 30 -> 46 million Netherlands 11 -> 17 million
Perhaps you need to rethink.
I was thinking over more recent years where Germany, for example, seems to have a negative birth rate. But that is interesting. Thanks.
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Let us see. Some of us understand there are many kinds of Brexiteer. We have also moved on. At some point, Brexiteers will have to accept that there are people who do not disagree with them out of spite, out of a need to score points, out of partisanship or out of a hatred for the UK, but because they genuinely believe that Brexiteers are wrong and they want to mitigate the effects of leaving the EU as they believe that is in the UK's best interests.
I am delighted Trump has left Boris and co in the lurch because I believe that will lead to a better outcome for the UK.
Uusually (when not sunk in despondency) you are one of the saner Remainers. Indeed I seem to recall you leaning to Leave at one point pre-vote.
I was a Leaver who was very tempted to vote Remain, at various times, but in the end I decided the short term pain of Brexit (which will happen) is justified by the long term gain.
So we are quite close. Let us join hands and jump off the cliff, sharing the same parachute, for a nice soft landing. And ignore the shrieking voices of the dying Hard Brexiteers plummeting to earth, and the howls of Remoaners left on the precipice, being devoured by the EU*.
*I'll work on this metaphor, but you see what I mean
I think the monster EU will extend amobea like over the cliff to try and consume those cowering at the base. The brave hard Brexiteers will have avoided the rocks and made a graceful dive into the clear blue waters. They'll be swimming strongly into the open, welcoming waters.
the trade balance does matter and exports alone are not the way to improve it.
much of our trade deficit is structural becasue we let industries go in the noughties instead of looking after them
our deficit consists of lots of mid tech products made in high cost countries - cars, trucks, fridges, electrics.
on shore these and a large chunk of the BoP will disappear.
Leaving our main market won't result in industries being onshored. Actually the opposite to some extent. Companies with complex trading relationships will consolidate their investments in their main market, which now no longer includes the UK.
That's to misunderstand the UK problem
The EU will only wqrk for the UK if we adopt European labour legislation, which nobody in this country is advocatiing.
In the Blair period the trend was very simple.
Multinat wants to reduce labour costs or increase productivity . Needs to transfer production and close a factory in the West - Germany France too difficult to do - so UK is the first port of call.
UK factory gets closed.
Multinat gets free access to UK market and has no down side.
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Let us see. Some of us understand there are many kinds of Brexiteer. We have also moved on. At some point, Brexiteers will have to accept that there are people who do not disagree with them out of spite, out of a need to score points, out of partisanship or out of a hatred for the UK, but because they genuinely believe that Brexiteers are wrong and they want to mitigate the effects of leaving the EU as they believe that is in the UK's best interests.
I am delighted Trump has left Boris and co in the lurch because I believe that will lead to a better outcome for the UK.
Uusually (when not sunk in despondency) you are one of the saner Remainers. Indeed I seem to recall you leaning to Leave at one point pre-vote.
I was a Leaver who was very tempted to vote Remain, at various times, but in the end I decided the short term pain of Brexit (which will happen) is justified by the long term gain.
So we are quite close. Let us join hands and jump off the cliff, sharing the same parachute, for a nice soft landing. And ignore the shrieking voices of the dying Hard Brexiteers plummeting to earth, and the howls of Remoaners left on the precipice, being devoured by the EU*.
*I'll work on this metaphor, but you see what I mean
I think the monster EU will extend amobea like over the cliff to try and consume those cowering at the base. The brave hard Brexiteers will have avoided the rocks and made a graceful dive into the clear blue waters. They'll be swimming strongly into the open, welcoming waters.
The single market is our largest destination for exports.
The EU has been rapidly declining as a share of our overall export markets over the past decade, a trend that was very likely to continue regardless of Brexit.
The salient point is that our trade imbalance with the EU had widened rapidly up to the point of Brexit, such that if the overall volume of trade falls post Brexit (as I expect it will) the opportunities for UK based companies to take up new opportunities in UK domestic markets should more than outweigh the impact of lost markets on the continent. The risks arising from the loss of trade fall on the EU side, since for them the reverse is true i.e. closing down a previously expanding market for EU exports, with fewer additional opportunities in EU domestic markets if British firms withdraw.
Or, to put it more succinctly, the UK trade deficit which at Brexit stood at record levels as a share of GDP, would all but disappear if trade with the EU were removed from the equation.
the whole of Europe is in decline
when I was born ( 1961 ) Europeans were about 20% of people on the planet by the time I die - say in the 2050s- they will be about 5%
As another '61er that is a fantastic stat I am going to pinch.
I'm guessing the UK's 'decline' will be of a similar ratio, though obviously a much smaller fraction of the world total. Of course losing 8% of your population in one swoop would be a bit of a jolt..
8% - will that be a mass suicide of LibDems the day we actually leave the EU?
With Trump's changing stance on NATO it strikes me that we ought to quietly and gradually drop away from the 2% defence spend we do.
Lets be honest there are no real penalties, sanctions or consequences for not doing so. Say down to 1.5%, that would free up cash for other areas, decrease borrowing or allow for lower tax increases/reductions...
Hmmm....the world is a more dangerous place now than it's been for a while. Norks. Russkies. Jihadists. China. Falling oil price. 2008 Mk2 on its way. The Donald. Juncker. I'd humbly suggest it's folly on stilts to weaken ourselves deliberately even further. The armed services are critically understaffed. If we're going to not spend some money please can we not spend £10bn on DfiD - Lambos n Mercs for dictators and a spurious number pulled out of Dave's butt for PR purposes.
Some good accounting would see certain projects appear in both DoD and DfID spending - sending a bunch of squaddies and logisticians to set up a tented village for the displaced in Syria, as an example.
I had an idea once that may or may not be bollocks: Devote DfiD solely to rescue operations (tsunami, earthquake, hurricance, etc). Spend their budget on new amphibious logistical support / helicopter ships like HMS Ocean (with extended medical facilities), Chinooks, tents, blankets, advance logistical bases, medics, search and rescue teams, etc. Staff mostly with ex-servicemen. When shit happens the UK will be there quickly to help, free of charge. If anything really hit the fan we'd have an extra HMS Ocean and air wing to deploy. That'd be a MUCH better way to spend £10bn than 'Lambos for scumbags'.
Lord - I see on Wiki that HMS Ocean is to be decommissioned in 2018 with no replacement. Double plus ungood. The Navy is going to end up being a bloke in a dinghy with a pistol.
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Quite.
Labour cheerleaders are now keeping their fingers crossed for soft Brexit because they think it will anger the Tory right and split the party.
They fail to understand that:
- The Tory right care far more about British laws and sovereignty than they think. - The Tory right care far less about atlanticism than they think. - The Tory right care quite a lot more for Mrs May than Cameron/Osborne - The Tory traditionalists are going to win on domestic issues such as grammar schools in the coming years. Given the Venn diagram of Tory right and Tory traditionalists is almost a perfect circle, this will assuage any slight issues they may have on trade relations.
For purely partisan purposes, Labour cheerleaders should be hoping for the hardest of hard.
Edit to add:
In short, Mrs May is a far more typical Tory leader than Cameron could ever have been. Appealing to all parts of the party for different reasons.
I note that you cannot find it in yourself to believe that people who do not share your vision of Brexit also want what they believe is best for the UK. In the end, this is what will do for the right. They do not own my country's flag.
No, SO, we all know you mean well. You're a thoroughly decent old stick, and a much nicer person than many of the rest of us.
You're just wrong.
Tis always the way, isn't it?
The right think the left are good people with bad ideas.
The left think the right are bad people..
If PB is anything to go by, the right seems to believe that the left is made up of traitors who hate the UK.
To be fair, the current Labour leadership don't help with that issue...
SO - I've never doubted your patriotism, but you surely can't deny that some of the current Labour cheerleaders far more about beating Tories than almost everything else? Patriotism seems to be been seen, like working class culture, as something consigned to Labour Party history....
The single market is our largest destination for exports.
The EU has been rapidly declining as a share of our overall export markets over the past decade, a trend that was very likely to continue regardless of Brexit.
The salient point is that our trade imbalance with the EU had widened rapidly up to the point of Brexit, such that if the overall volume of trade falls post Brexit (as I expect it will) the opportunities for UK based companies to take up new opportunities in UK domestic markets should more than outweigh the impact of lost markets on the continent. The risks arising from the loss of trade fall on the EU side, since for them the reverse is true i.e. closing down a previously expanding market for EU exports, with fewer additional opportunities in EU domestic markets if British firms withdraw.
Or, to put it more succinctly, the UK trade deficit which at Brexit stood at record levels as a share of GDP, would all but disappear if trade with the EU were removed from the equation.
the whole of Europe is in decline
when I was born ( 1961 ) Europeans were about 20% of people on the planet by the time I die - say in the 2050s- they will be about 5%
As another '61er that is a fantastic stat I am going to pinch.
I'm guessing the UK's 'decline' will be of a similar ratio, though obviously a much smaller fraction of the world total. Of course losing 8% of your population in one swoop would be a bit of a jolt..
I think that the UK's population has grown much more rapidly that the European average, largely as a result of mass migration. Scotland has seen very little of that which in some ways is a pity.
Since 1960:
UK 52 -> 66 million France 47 -> 67 million Spain 30 -> 46 million Netherlands 11 -> 17 million
Perhaps you need to rethink.
I was thinking over more recent years where Germany, for example, seems to have a negative birth rate. But that is interesting. Thanks.
It also ignores the demographic collapse hitting E Europe
Germany and Italy have populations forecast to drop in the next 30 years
the trade balance does matter and exports alone are not the way to improve it.
much of our trade deficit is structural becasue we let industries go in the noughties instead of looking after them
our deficit consists of lots of mid tech products made in high cost countries - cars, trucks, fridges, electrics.
on shore these and a large chunk of the BoP will disappear.
Leaving our main market won't result in industries being onshored. Actually the opposite to some extent. Companies with complex trading relationships will consolidate their investments in their main market, which now no longer includes the UK.
Is that how you think a market works? Let's take the example of techy but not that techy products - washing machines. The huge majority are imported, with German brands like Miele, Grundig, Bosch, Siemens, etc doing a roaring trade. As do non-EU imports. We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac). If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves. This puts pressure on all suppliers who want to make a profit selling washing machines in the UK. The £ price UK buyers will accept is going to be at a new equilibrium - same as the old one. Miele face lost sales or lost profit. The UK consumer will suffer only for those things we really can't make or procure from outside the EU. Samsung washing machine anyone? Haier? (These have zero impact on our BoP as we substitute non-EU product for EU, but Germany suffers a loss). The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around. The UK manufacturer faces a growth period. EU suppliers face loss of market or margin or both.
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....
I expect the SNP to win the election as they have won every democratic contest in Scotland since 2010.
Except one.
Yeah, they lost the Inverclyde by-election in 2011, that's what you meant?
Think there was a minor one in 2014 but the Nat Borg have wiped it from their memory vaults for at least a generation.
In that case, a generation in Scotland is about 3 years. If they can breed that fast we are all in trouble
Actually they didn't lose that one either - it was blatantly stolen from them by the duplicitous "vow" or something...
It was stolen by Dave hiding the secret oil fields and the whisky export duty revenues from Scotland.
I'm actually a but more concerned about Dave's promise of a £200b oil and gas boom that we would share in if we voted No. Any sign of that coming down the line?
The single market is our largest destination for exports.
The EU has been rapidly declining as a share of our overall export markets over the past decade, a trend that was very likely to continue regardless of Brexit.
The salient point is that our trade imbalance with the EU had widened rapidly up to the point of Brexit, such that if the overall volume of trade falls post Brexit (as I expect it will) the opportunities for UK based companies to take up new opportunities in UK domestic markets should more than outweigh the impact of lost markets on the continent. The risks arising from the loss of trade fall on the EU side, since for them the reverse is true i.e. closing down a previously expanding market for EU exports, with fewer additional opportunities in EU domestic markets if British firms withdraw.
Or, to put it more succinctly, the UK trade deficit which at Brexit stood at record levels as a share of GDP, would all but disappear if trade with the EU were removed from the equation.
the whole of Europe is in decline
when I was born ( 1961 ) Europeans were about 20% of people on the planet by the time I die - say in the 2050s- they will be about 5%
As another '61er that is a fantastic stat I am going to pinch.
I'm guessing the UK's 'decline' will be of a similar ratio, though obviously a much smaller fraction of the world total. Of course losing 8% of your population in one swoop would be a bit of a jolt..
8% - will that be a mass suicide of LibDems the day we actually leave the EU?
8% has been population Growth in about the last 9-10 years. Devastating ... oh.
By every electoral contest I refer to the ones between the parties ie The Scottish General Election of 2011, the local elections of 2012, the European one of 2014, the UK General Election of 2015 and the Scottish General Election of 2016.
In two of these five the SNP gained an absolute majority of seats in Scotland, in three a plurality of votes. In all five the Tories were a minority.
Oh and still no unionist reference to the 53 per cent SNP in this week's YouGov sub sample - that is a majority not just a plurality.
I expect the SNP to win the election as they have won every democratic contest in Scotland since 2010.
Except one.
Yeah, they lost the Inverclyde by-election in 2011, that's what you meant?
Think there was a minor one in 2014 but the Nat Borg have wiped it from their memory vaults for at least a generation.
In that case, a generation in Scotland is about 3 years. If they can breed that fast we are all in trouble
Actually they didn't lose that one either - it was blatantly stolen from them by the duplicitous "vow" or something...
It was stolen by Dave hiding the secret oil fields and the whisky export duty revenues from Scotland.
I'm actually a but more concerned about Dave's promise of a £200b oil and gas boom that we would share in if we voted No. Any sign of that coming down the line?
It will happen once you have a government in Holyrood good with the economy and less obsessed with Indyref2.
You want that boom, you need to make Ruth Davidson First Minister.
There was a time before the referendum when the EU was a non issue for the vast majority of voters.
Once we leave the EU, perhaps it will become a non issue again.
But in the meantime the Lib Dems will have picked up a lot of support from Remainers, probably the sort of liberal minded people who are sympathetic to Lib Dem policies on non EU issues.
So the Lib Dem strategy to go for the Remain vote may be a good longer term move.
... If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves.
You are making the assumption that the homemade and German products are of equal quality and reliability. In the past that was not the case and was the reason a lot of people bought German or Japanese products - because ours were inferior and often more expensive.
the trade balance does matter and exports alone are not the way to improve it.
much of our trade deficit is structural becasue we let industries go in the noughties instead of looking after them
our deficit consists of lots of mid tech products made in high cost countries - cars, trucks, fridges, electrics.
on shore these and a large chunk of the BoP will disappear.
Leaving our main market won't result in industries being onshored. Actually the opposite to some extent. Companies with complex trading relationships will consolidate their investments in their main market, which now no longer includes the UK.
Is that how you think a market works? Let's take the example of techy but not that techy products - washing machines. The huge majority are imported, with German brands like Miele, Grundig, Bosch, Siemens, etc doing a roaring trade. As do non-EU imports. We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac). If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves. This puts pressure on all suppliers who want to make a profit selling washing machines in the UK. The £ price UK buyers will accept is going to be at a new equilibrium - same as the old one. Miele face lost sales or lost profit. The UK consumer will suffer only for those things we really can't make or procure from outside the EU. Samsung washing machine anyone? Haier? (These have zero impact on our BoP as we substitute non-EU product for EU, but Germany suffers a loss). The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around. The UK manufacturer faces a growth period. EU suppliers face loss of market or margin or both.
Let's take an example of a large market that is somewhat cut off from the single market next door - Russia. Do affluent Russians buy German washing machines? Oh yes they do. Where do less affluent Russians source their washing machines? China by any chance?
I expect the SNP to win the election as they have won every democratic contest in Scotland since 2010.
Except one.
Yeah, they lost the Inverclyde by-election in 2011, that's what you meant?
Think there was a minor one in 2014 but the Nat Borg have wiped it from their memory vaults for at least a generation.
In that case, a generation in Scotland is about 3 years. If they can breed that fast we are all in trouble
Actually they didn't lose that one either - it was blatantly stolen from them by the duplicitous "vow" or something...
It was stolen by Dave hiding the secret oil fields and the whisky export duty revenues from Scotland.
I'm actually a but more concerned about Dave's promise of a £200b oil and gas boom that we would share in if we voted No. Any sign of that coming down the line?
It will happen once you have a government in Holyrood good with the economy and less obsessed with Indyref2.
You want that boom, you need to make Ruth Davidson First Minister.
The Cashmeister has spoken, it's not ours whatever happens.
I expect the SNP to win the election as they have won every democratic contest in Scotland since 2010.
Well yes of course they will be the largest party. But they won't get a plurality. Will they gain more Councillors than the Tories? That was the question.
There is plenty of scope for Ruth to recover from leading SCons to their worst ever council elections performance in 2012.
Is that how you think a market works? Let's take the example of techy but not that techy products - washing machines. The huge majority are imported, with German brands like Miele, Grundig, Bosch, Siemens, etc doing a roaring trade. As do non-EU imports. We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac). If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves. This puts pressure on all suppliers who want to make a profit selling washing machines in the UK. The £ price UK buyers will accept is going to be at a new equilibrium - same as the old one. Miele face lost sales or lost profit. The UK consumer will suffer only for those things we really can't make or procure from outside the EU. Samsung washing machine anyone? Haier? (These have zero impact on our BoP as we substitute non-EU product for EU, but Germany suffers a loss). The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around. The UK manufacturer faces a growth period. EU suppliers face loss of market or margin or both.
You are missing my main point though, which is that we can only afford washing machines if we export stuff. That's why exports ultimately drive imports. The only reason for manufacturers basing their operations in the UK in that scenario is that for market reasons it helps exports. Leaving our main market has the opposite effect. We're not going to win the price play because washing manufacturers can base themselves in Romania (as they already do, in fact) where they get low costs AND full integration into the EU market.
the trade balance does matter and exports alone are not the way to improve it.
much of our trade deficit is structural becasue we let industries go in the noughties instead of looking after them
our deficit consists of lots of mid tech products made in high cost countries - cars, trucks, fridges, electrics.
on shore these and a large chunk of the BoP will disappear.
Leaving our main market won't result in industries being onshored. Actually the opposite to some extent. Companies with complex trading relationships will consolidate their investments in their main market, which now no longer includes the UK.
Is that how you think a market works? Let's take the example of techy but not that techy products - washing machines. The huge majority are imported, with German brands like Miele, Grundig, Bosch, Siemens, etc doing a roaring trade. As do non-EU imports. We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac). If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves. This puts pressure on all suppliers who want to make a profit selling washing machines in the UK. The £ price UK buyers will accept is going to be at a new equilibrium - same as the old one. Miele face lost sales or lost profit. The UK consumer will suffer only for those things we really can't make or procure from outside the EU. Samsung washing machine anyone? Haier? (These have zero impact on our BoP as we substitute non-EU product for EU, but Germany suffers a loss). The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around. The UK manufacturer faces a growth period. EU suppliers face loss of market or margin or both.
We might even get tumble dryers in our washing machines that actually work if we remove some of the bizarre energy restrictions imposed in recent years.
I expect the SNP to win the election as they have won every democratic contest in Scotland since 2010.
Except one.
Yeah, they lost the Inverclyde by-election in 2011, that's what you meant?
Think there was a minor one in 2014 but the Nat Borg have wiped it from their memory vaults for at least a generation.
In that case, a generation in Scotland is about 3 years. If they can breed that fast we are all in trouble
Actually they didn't lose that one either - it was blatantly stolen from them by the duplicitous "vow" or something...
It was stolen by Dave hiding the secret oil fields and the whisky export duty revenues from Scotland.
I'm actually a but more concerned about Dave's promise of a £200b oil and gas boom that we would share in if we voted No. Any sign of that coming down the line?
It will happen once you have a government in Holyrood good with the economy and less obsessed with Indyref2.
You want that boom, you need to make Ruth Davidson First Minister.
The Cashmeister has spoken, it's not ours whatever happens.
Is that how you think a market works? Let's take the example of techy but not that techy products - washing machines. The huge majority are imported, with German brands like Miele, Grundig, Bosch, Siemens, etc doing a roaring trade. As do non-EU imports. We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac). If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves. This puts pressure on all suppliers who want to make a profit selling washing machines in the UK. The £ price UK buyers will accept is going to be at a new equilibrium - same as the old one. Miele face lost sales or lost profit. The UK consumer will suffer only for those things we really can't make or procure from outside the EU. Samsung washing machine anyone? Haier? (These have zero impact on our BoP as we substitute non-EU product for EU, but Germany suffers a loss). The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around. The UK manufacturer faces a growth period. EU suppliers face loss of market or margin or both.
The only reason for manufacturers basing their operations in the UK in that scenario is that for market reasons it helps exports.
No. They'll make them here if they can make a profit doing so. National issues around balance of payment are irrelvant at the individual player level (as long as there is a functioning FX market). We might see some factories making only for the UK market (unlikely but possible).
The single market is our largest destination for exports.
The EU has been rapidly declining as a share of our overall export markets over the past decade, a trend that was very likely to continue regardless of Brexit.
The salient point is that our trade imbalance with the EU had widened rapidly up to the point of Brexit, such that if the overall volume of trade falls post Brexit (as I expect it will) the opportunities for UK based companies to take up new opportunities in UK domestic markets should more than outweigh the impact of lost markets on the continent. The risks arising from the loss of trade fall on the EU side, since for them the reverse is true i.e. closing down a previously expanding market for EU exports, with fewer additional opportunities in EU domestic markets if British firms withdraw.
Or, to put it more succinctly, the UK trade deficit which at Brexit stood at record levels as a share of GDP, would all but disappear if trade with the EU were removed from the equation.
the whole of Europe is in decline
when I was born ( 1961 ) Europeans were about 20% of people on the planet by the time I die - say in the 2050s- they will be about 5%
As another '61er that is a fantastic stat I am going to pinch.
I'm guessing the UK's 'decline' will be of a similar ratio, though obviously a much smaller fraction of the world total. Of course losing 8% of your population in one swoop would be a bit of a jolt..
I think that the UK's population has grown much more rapidly that the European average, largely as a result of mass migration. Scotland has seen very little of that which in some ways is a pity.
Since 1960:
UK 52 -> 66 million France 47 -> 67 million Spain 30 -> 46 million Netherlands 11 -> 17 million
Perhaps you need to rethink.
I was thinking over more recent years where Germany, for example, seems to have a negative birth rate. But that is interesting. Thanks.
No, you were right the first time.
In recent years the UK has experienced twice the average EU population growth rate. Latest figures show that it is the fastest growing large EU country, apart from Spain (whose own population boom has basically stopped, anyway)
No, SO, we all know you mean well. You're a thoroughly decent old stick, and a much nicer person than many of the rest of us.
You're just wrong.
I think there will only be a resolution when Remainers accept there is no way back to the EU and Leavers accept they made a mistake. Not necessarily wrong on the principle, but wrong in their assumptions about Brexit, and in particular the one of taking back control. The EU will still be there as the only deal that counts in Europe; we will still need a relationship with it just as much as before, But it will be a much more deferential relationship where in practice we accept whatever the EU decides rather than being part of the decision-making. We're seeing that already with the Article 50 talks.
"Made a mistake"???
See, this is where you start talking bollocks. And hackles start to rise. Even with a polite, sane, well-mannered Soft Brexiteer like me.
I go back to my baby metaphor, as it seems to be the only one that might work with idiots like you. You're asking the haggard mother of a howling newborn, soiling his tenth nappy of the day, to now accept that she "made a mistake in having children".
At best she will look at you with total perplexity and bewilderment; at worst she will throw the nappies at you, covering you with ordure.
You just don't get it.
Indeed I don't get your baby metaphor. Leavers rightly accuse many Remainers of not moving on from the referendum. My point is that many Leavers haven't either. If we want a resolution, reality will have to take over from rhetoric. The problem is that the reality is in direct contradiction with the rhetoric. It needs Leavers to let go.
I note that you cannot find it in yourself to believe that people who do not share your vision of Brexit also want what they believe is best for the UK. In the end, this is what will do for the right. They do not own my country's flag.
No, SO, we all know you mean well. You're a thoroughly decent old stick, and a much nicer person than many of the rest of us.
You're just wrong.
Tis always the way, isn't it?
The right think the left are good people with bad ideas.
The left think the right are bad people..
If PB is anything to go by, the right seems to believe that the left is made up of traitors who hate the UK.
Well, the great Left Wing party to which you belong is led by Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell, so, uh, you know. Case closed?
I think in fairness Southam left Labour after the last embarrassment. But I certainly agree that there is a useful potential alliance between soft Brexiteers and former remainers. May captures that position very well, which is why the polling as it is.
I expect the SNP to win the election as they have won every democratic contest in Scotland since 2010.
Except one.
Yeah, they lost the Inverclyde by-election in 2011, that's what you meant?
Think there was a minor one in 2014 but the Nat Borg have wiped it from their memory vaults for at least a generation.
In that case, a generation in Scotland is about 3 years. If they can breed that fast we are all in trouble
Actually they didn't lose that one either - it was blatantly stolen from them by the duplicitous "vow" or something...
It was stolen by Dave hiding the secret oil fields and the whisky export duty revenues from Scotland.
I'm actually a but more concerned about Dave's promise of a £200b oil and gas boom that we would share in if we voted No. Any sign of that coming down the line?
It will happen once you have a government in Holyrood good with the economy and less obsessed with Indyref2.
You want that boom, you need to make Ruth Davidson First Minister.
The Cashmeister has spoken, it's not ours whatever happens.
No, SO, we all know you mean well. You're a thoroughly decent old stick, and a much nicer person than many of the rest of us.
You're just wrong.
I think there will only be a resolution when Remainers accept there is no way back to the EU and Leavers accept they made a mistake. Not necessarily wrong on the principle, but wrong in their assumptions about Brexit, and in particular the one of taking back control. The EU will still be there as the only deal that counts in Europe; we will still need a relationship with it just as much as before, But it will be a much more deferential relationship where in practice we accept whatever the EU decides rather than being part of the decision-making. We're seeing that already with the Article 50 talks.
"Made a mistake"???
See, this is where you start talking bollocks. And hackles start to rise. Even with a polite, sane, well-mannered Soft Brexiteer like me.
I go back to my baby metaphor, as it seems to be the only one that might work with idiots like you. You're asking the haggard mother of a howling newborn, soiling his tenth nappy of the day, to now accept that she "made a mistake in having children".
At best she will look at you with total perplexity and bewilderment; at worst she will throw the nappies at you, covering you with ordure.
You just don't get it.
Indeed I don't get your baby metaphor. Leavers rightly accuse many Remainers of not moving on from the referendum. My point is that many Leavers haven't either. If we want a resolution, reality will have to take over from rhetoric. The problem is that the reality is in direct contradiction with the rhetoric. It needs Leavers to let go.
So, in essence, your position is: 1.) our negotiating position is hopeless and we should give up without a fight; and 2.) accept that we must now have a deferential relationship with the continental power.
the trade balance does matter and exports alone are not the way to improve it.
much of our trade deficit is structural becasue we let industries go in the noughties instead of looking after them
our deficit consists of lots of mid tech products made in high cost countries - cars, trucks, fridges, electrics.
on shore these and a large chunk of the BoP will disappear.
Leaving our main market won't result in industries being onshored. Actually the opposite to some extent. Companies with complex trading relationships will consolidate their investments in their main market, which now no longer includes the UK.
:
The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around. The UK manufacturer faces a growth period. EU suppliers face loss of market or margin or both.
We might even get tumble dryers in our washing machines that actually work if we remove some of the bizarre energy restrictions imposed in recent years.
Is that why my combined washing machine/tumble dryer doesn't actually dry things? Really??
Serious question. I spent a lot of money on a (German) combo washer/dryer for my glam new kitchen, in the fond hope it meant I could dump my tumble dryer (which uglifies my bedroom). The damn combo dryer is utterly shite. Couldn't dry a slightly damp napkin in six hours.
Is this coz of the EU?! Or some weird law?
Nope - it is close to impossible to fit the components for a full sized washing machine & and a full sized dryer into a standard 60cm unit. When you buy a combi washing machine dryer, you are buying a slightly crap washing machine, and a dryer with the power of a hair dryer.
Is that how you think a market works? Let's take the example of techy but not that techy products - washing machines. The huge majority are imported, with German brands like Miele, Grundig, Bosch, Siemens, etc doing a roaring trade. As do non-EU imports. We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac). If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves. This puts pressure on all suppliers who want to make a profit selling washing machines in the UK. The £ price UK buyers will accept is going to be at a new equilibrium - same as the old one. Miele face lost sales or lost profit. The UK consumer will suffer only for those things we really can't make or procure from outside the EU. Samsung washing machine anyone? Haier? (These have zero impact on our BoP as we substitute non-EU product for EU, but Germany suffers a loss). The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around. The UK manufacturer faces a growth period. EU suppliers face loss of market or margin or both.
The only reason for manufacturers basing their operations in the UK in that scenario is that for market reasons it helps exports.
No. They'll make them here if they can make a profit doing so. National issues around balance of payment are irrelvant at the individual player level (as long as there is a functioning FX market). We might see some factories making only for the UK market (unlikely but possible).
True up to a point. But investment is also competitive. If they can make more profits or do it more easily somewhere else, they will go somewhere else. We've lost washing machine manufacturing. It's not going to come back. But there are some industries that have become very vulnerable thanks to Brexit and the threat of being locked out of the European market. It isn't easy, but in general we're best hugging the EU as close as we can so barriers aren't made unnecessarily higher.
I expect the SNP to win the election as they have won every democratic contest in Scotland since 2010.
Except one.
Yeah, they lost the Inverclyde by-election in 2011, that's what you meant?
Think there was a minor one in 2014 but the Nat Borg have wiped it from their memory vaults for at least a generation.
In that case, a generation in Scotland is about 3 years. If they can breed that fast we are all in trouble
Actually they didn't lose that one either - it was blatantly stolen from them by the duplicitous "vow" or something...
It was stolen by Dave hiding the secret oil fields and the whisky export duty revenues from Scotland.
I'm actually a but more concerned about Dave's promise of a £200b oil and gas boom that we would share in if we voted No. Any sign of that coming down the line?
It will happen once you have a government in Holyrood good with the economy and less obsessed with Indyref2.
You want that boom, you need to make Ruth Davidson First Minister.
The Cashmeister has spoken, it's not ours whatever happens.
A killer blow indeed... Is the Express billing the SNP for campaign expenses to print nonsense like this?
I think on the day some potential Melenchoners will be scared back to Macron. If Fillon was doing worse then maybe they would take a punt on Melenchon, but as Fillon seems pretty stable, it could be seen as too risky.
Overall, Macron v MLP still seems the end result. Both seem to have had fairly lackluster campaigns recently though.
No, SO, we all know you mean well. You're a thoroughly decent old stick, and a much nicer person than many of the rest of us.
You're just wrong.
I think there will only be a resolution when Remainers accept there is no way back to the EU and Leavers accept they made a mistake. Not necessarily wrong on the principle, but wrong in their assumptions about Brexit, and in particular the one of taking back control. The EU will still be there as the only deal that counts in Europe; we will still need a relationship with it just as much as before, But it will be a much more deferential relationship where in practice we accept whatever the EU decides rather than being part of the decision-making. We're seeing that already with the Article 50 talks.
"Made a mistake"???
See, this is where you start talking bollocks. And hackles start to rise. Even with a polite, sane, well-mannered Soft Brexiteer like me.
I go back to my baby metaphor, as it seems to be the only one that might work with idiots like you. You're asking the haggard mother of a howling newborn, soiling his tenth nappy of the day, to now accept that she "made a mistake in having children".
At best she will look at you with total perplexity and bewilderment; at worst she will throw the nappies at you, covering you with ordure.
You just don't get it.
Indeed I don't get your baby metaphor. Leavers rightly accuse many Remainers of not moving on from the referendum. My point is that many Leavers haven't either. If we want a resolution, reality will have to take over from rhetoric. The problem is that the reality is in direct contradiction with the rhetoric. It needs Leavers to let go.
The fact you don't get the baby metaphor, means you are incapable of understanding what Brexit means, and why it happened. It also implies your analysis of it will always be myopic and flawed. But hey ho.
Anyway, I'm not here to argue Brexit YET AGAIN; my older daughter is here, appositely, and needs some Easter holiday entertainment.
Later.
Having a baby is an act of destruction; Brexit is an act of destruction. It's more akin to having a vasectomy and then realising you long to have a daughter to brighten the long Easter weekend.
I think the monster EU will extend amobea like over the cliff to try and consume those cowering at the base. The brave hard Brexiteers will have avoided the rocks and made a graceful dive into the clear blue waters. They'll be swimming strongly into the open, welcoming waters.
Average survival times in UK waters is 30 to 90 minutes depending on the time of year and age. Older people (Brexiteers???) succumb much more quickly than younger people.
I note that you cannot find it in yourself to believe that people who do not share your vision of Brexit also want what they believe is best for the UK. In the end, this is what will do for the right. They do not own my country's flag.
No, SO, we all know you mean well. You're a thoroughly decent old stick, and a much nicer person than many of the rest of us.
You're just wrong.
Tis always the way, isn't it?
The right think the left are good people with bad ideas.
The left think the right are bad people..
If PB is anything to go by, the right seems to believe that the left is made up of traitors who hate the UK.
Well, the great Left Wing party to which you belong is led by Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell, so, uh, you know. Case closed?
I think in fairness Southam left Labour after the last embarrassment. But I certainly agree that there is a useful potential alliance between soft Brexiteers and former remainers. May captures that position very well, which is why the polling as it is.
The question is how long May can ride that pony. There's a fork in the track up ahead.
No, SO, we all know you mean well. You're a thoroughly decent old stick, and a much nicer person than many of the rest of us.
You're just wrong.
I think there will only be a resolution when Remainers accept there is no way back to the EU and Leavers accept they made a mistake. Not necessarily wrong on the principle, but wrong in their assumptions about Brexit, and in particular the one of taking back control. The EU will still be there as the only deal that counts in Europe; we will still need a relationship with it just as much as before, But it will be a much more deferential relationship where in practice we accept whatever the EU decides rather than being part of the decision-making. We're seeing that already with the Article 50 talks.
"Made a mistake"???
See, this is where you start talking bollocks. And hackles start to rise. Even with a polite, sane, well-mannered Soft Brexiteer like me.
I go back to my baby metaphor, as it seems to be the only one that might work with idiots like you. You're asking the haggard mother of a howling newborn, soiling his tenth nappy of the day, to now accept that she "made a mistake in having children".
At best she will look at you with total perplexity and bewilderment; at worst she will throw the nappies at you, covering you with ordure.
You just don't get it.
Indeed I don't get your baby metaphor. Leavers rightly accuse many Remainers of not moving on from the referendum. My point is that many Leavers haven't either. If we want a resolution, reality will have to take over from rhetoric. The problem is that the reality is in direct contradiction with the rhetoric. It needs Leavers to let go.
The fact you don't get the baby metaphor, means you are incapable of understanding what Brexit means, and why it happened. It also implies your analysis of it will always be myopic and flawed. But hey ho.
Anyway, I'm not here to argue Brexit YET AGAIN; my older daughter is here, appositely, and needs some Easter holiday entertainment.
Later.
Having a baby is an act of destruction; Brexit is an act of destruction. It's more akin to having a vasectomy and then realising you long to have a daughter to brighten the long Easter weekend.
No, SO, we all know you mean well. You're a thoroughly decent old stick, and a much nicer person than many of the rest of us.
You're just wrong.
I think there will only be a resolution when Remainers accept there is no way back to the EU and Leavers accept they made a mistake. Not necessarily wrong on the principle, but wrong in their assumptions about Brexit, and in particular the one of taking back control. The EU will still be there as the only deal that counts in Europe; we will still need a relationship with it just as much as before, But it will be a much more deferential relationship where in practice we accept whatever the EU decides rather than being part of the decision-making. We're seeing that already with the Article 50 talks.
"Made a mistake"???
See, this is where you start talking bollocks. And hackles start to rise. Even with a polite, sane, well-mannered Soft Brexiteer like me.
I go back to my baby metaphor, as it seems to be the only one that might work with idiots like you. You're asking the haggard mother of a howling newborn, soiling his tenth nappy of the day, to now accept that she "made a mistake in having children".
At best she will look at you with total perplexity and bewilderment; at worst she will throw the nappies at you, covering you with ordure.
You just don't get it.
The problem is that the reality is in direct contradiction with the rhetoric.
Over what timeframe? And with respect to both economics and democracy? It took 40 years to get our 'out' vote. I can be patient with at least a decade of adjustment pain. (even if I don't think there'll be much). You seem to think that because we may not be materially better off instantly then it's time to wail like a teenage girl on a rollercoaster. On the democracy question (always ignored by remainers) - we dodged a bullet. The EU is on an unwavering journey to becoming a superstate. A superstate we can't be part of. EU voters can't vote for a change of policy. They're serfs. Juncker's little minions.
I expect the SNP to win the election as they have won every democratic contest in Scotland since 2010.
Except one.
Yeah, they lost the Inverclyde by-election in 2011, that's what you meant?
Think there was a minor one in 2014 but the Nat Borg have wiped it from their memory vaults for at least a generation.
In that case, a generation in Scotland is about 3 years. If they can breed that fast we are all in trouble
Actually they didn't lose that one either - it was blatantly stolen from them by the duplicitous "vow" or something...
It was stolen by Dave hiding the secret oil fields and the whisky export duty revenues from Scotland.
I'm actually a but more concerned about Dave's promise of a £200b oil and gas boom that we would share in if we voted No. Any sign of that coming down the line?
It will happen once you have a government in Holyrood good with the economy and less obsessed with Indyref2.
You want that boom, you need to make Ruth Davidson First Minister.
The Cashmeister has spoken, it's not ours whatever happens.
A killer blow indeed... Is the Express billing the SNP for campaign expenses to print nonsense like this?
They've been doing marvellous work on our behalf entirely foc for years. We may even strike a special 'for services to' medal for them come the glorious day.
Saw a bit of the Sky paper review last night. Stig Abell[sp] was moaning incessantly about how powerless and feeble the UK is (implied strongly due to voting to leave the EU). Then he started banging on about people believing that Assad wasn't responsible for the chemical weapons attack, and that the UK Government is seen about as worthy of trust as the Russians.
I do wonder if a small (but vocal) group are practically drunk on eurogrief.
Which reminds me, I need to write a review of Josephus' The Jewish War.
No, SO, we all know you mean well. You're a thoroughly decent old stick, and a much nicer person than many of the rest of us.
You're just wrong.
I think there will only be a resolution when Remainers accept there is no way back to the EU and Leavers accept they made a mistake. Not necessarily wrong on the principle, but wrong in their assumptions about Brexit, and in particular the one of taking back control. The EU will still be there as the only deal that counts in Europe; we will still need a relationship with it just as much as before, But it will be a much more deferential relationship where in practice we accept whatever the EU decides rather than being part of the decision-making. We're seeing that already with the Article 50 talks.
"Made a mistake"???
See, this is where you start talking bollocks. And hackles start to rise. Even with a polite, sane, well-mannered Soft Brexiteer like me.
I go back to my baby metaphor, as it seems to be the only one that might work with idiots like you. You're asking the haggard mother of a howling newborn, soiling his tenth nappy of the day, to now accept that she "made a mistake in having children".
At best she will look at you with total perplexity and bewilderment; at worst she will throw the nappies at you, covering you with ordure.
You just don't get it.
Indeed I don't get your baby metaphor. Leavers rightly accuse many Remainers of not moving on from the referendum. My point is that many Leavers haven't either. If we want a resolution, reality will have to take over from rhetoric. The problem is that the reality is in direct contradiction with the rhetoric. It needs Leavers to let go.
The fact you don't get the baby metaphor, means you are incapable of understanding what Brexit means, and why it happened. It also implies your analysis of it will always be myopic and flawed. But hey ho.
Anyway, I'm not here to argue Brexit YET AGAIN; my older daughter is here, appositely, and needs some Easter holiday entertainment.
Later.
Having a baby is an act of destruction; Brexit is an act of destruction. It's more akin to having a vasectomy and then realising you long to have a daughter to brighten the long Easter weekend.
Your paragraph doesn't make entirely make sense.
Well the realisation of lost opportunities hasn't hit the Brexiteers yet.
... If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves.
You are making the assumption that the homemade and German products are of equal quality and reliability. In the past that was not the case and was the reason a lot of people bought German or Japanese products - because ours were inferior and often more expensive.
Is that how you think a market works? Let's take the example of techy but not that techy products - washing machines. The huge majority are imported, with German brands like Miele, Grundig, Bosch, Siemens, etc doing a roaring trade. As do non-EU imports. We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac). If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves. This puts pressure on all suppliers who want to make a profit selling washing machines in the UK. The £ price UK buyers will accept is going to be at a new equilibrium - same as the old one. Miele face lost sales or lost profit. The UK consumer will suffer only for those things we really can't make or procure from outside the EU. Samsung washing machine anyone? Haier? (These have zero impact on our BoP as we substitute non-EU product for EU, but Germany suffers a loss). The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around. The UK manufacturer faces a growth period. EU suppliers face loss of market or margin or both.
You are missing my main point though, which is that we can only afford washing machines if we export stuff. That's why exports ultimately drive imports. The only reason for manufacturers basing their operations in the UK in that scenario is that for market reasons it helps exports. Leaving our main market has the opposite effect. We're not going to win the price play because washing manufacturers can base themselves in Romania (as they already do, in fact) where they get low costs AND full integration into the EU market.
No, SO, we all know you mean well. You're a thoroughly decent old stick, and a much nicer person than many of the rest of us.
You're just wrong.
I think there will only be a resolution when Remainers accept there is no way back to the EU and Leavers accept they made a mistake. Not necessarily wrong on the principle, but wrong in their assumptions about Brexit, and in particular the one of taking back control. The EU will still be there as the only deal that counts in Europe; we will still need a relationship with it just as much as before, But it will be a much more deferential relationship where in practice we accept whatever the EU decides rather than being part of the decision-making. We're seeing that already with the Article 50 talks.
"Made a mistake"???
See, this is where you start talking bollocks. And hackles start to rise. Even with a polite, sane, well-mannered Soft Brexiteer like me.
I go back to my baby metaphor, as it seems to be the only one that might work with idiots like you. You're asking the haggard mother of a howling newborn, soiling his tenth nappy of the day, to now accept that she "made a mistake in having children".
At best she will look at you with total perplexity and bewilderment; at worst she will throw the nappies at you, covering you with ordure.
You just don't get it.
The problem is that the reality is in direct contradiction with the rhetoric.
Over what timeframe? And with respect to both economics and democracy? It took 40 years to get our 'out' vote. I can be patient with at least a decade of adjustment pain. (even if I don't think there'll be much). You seem to think that because we may not be materially better off instantly then it's time to wail like teenage girl on a rollercoaster. On the democracy question (always ignored by remainers) - we dodged a bullet. The EU is on an unwavering journey to becoming a superstate. A superstate we can't be part of. EU voters can't vote for a change of policy. They're serfs. Juncker's little minions.
Brexit is the most socialist, big-government policy we've enacted since the 70s. It's a mystery to me why people like you have been fooled by some vacuous rhetoric about sovereignty.
So, in essence, your position is: 1.) our negotiating position is hopeless and we should give up without a fight; and 2.) accept that we must now have a deferential relationship with the continental power.
Not very British, is it?
My position is that in practice, we will decide it's more in our interest to do what the EU tells us than not to do so. That position does assume (a) the EU doesn't muck up and push us beyond where we are prepared to go and (b) we act rationally. Neither assumption is guaranteed. In that case, it will turn out badly for us. It's not a great situation to be in, but we are we are. I voted Remain, but have moved on, of course. Leave is the interesting option and we will see how it pans out. I have always been most interested in the outcome.
I note that you cannot find it in yourself to believe that people who do not share your vision of Brexit also want what they believe is best for the UK. In the end, this is what will do for the right. They do not own my country's flag.
No, SO, we all know you mean well. You're a thoroughly decent old stick, and a much nicer person than many of the rest of us.
You're just wrong.
Tis always the way, isn't it?
The right think the left are good people with bad ideas.
The left think the right are bad people..
If PB is anything to go by, the right seems to believe that the left is made up of traitors who hate the UK.
Well, the great Left Wing party to which you belong is led by Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell, so, uh, you know. Case closed?
I think in fairness Southam left Labour after the last embarrassment. But I certainly agree that there is a useful potential alliance between soft Brexiteers and former remainers. May captures that position very well, which is why the polling as it is.
The question is how long May can ride that pony. There's a fork in the track up ahead.
She's already headed down the soft-fork with Boris - David still at the fork point !
Did you mean "Having a baby is an act of destruction; Brexit is an act of destruction. It's more akin to having a vasectomy and then realising you long to have a daughter to brighten the long Easter weekend."
Or
"Having a baby is not an act of destruction; Brexit is an act of destruction. It's more akin to having a vasectomy and then realising you long to have a daughter to brighten the long Easter weekend."
Is that how you think a market works? Let's take the example of techy but not that techy products - washing machines. The huge majority are imported, with German brands like Miele, Grundig, Bosch, Siemens, etc doing a roaring trade. As do non-EU imports. We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac). If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves. This puts pressure on all suppliers who want to make a profit selling washing machines in the UK. The £ price UK buyers will accept is going to be at a new equilibrium - same as the old one. Miele face lost sales or lost profit. The UK consumer will suffer only for those things we really can't make or procure from outside the EU. Samsung washing machine anyone? Haier? (These have zero impact on our BoP as we substitute non-EU product for EU, but Germany suffers a loss). The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around. The UK manufacturer faces a growth period. EU suppliers face loss of market or margin or both.
You are missing my main point though, which is that we can only afford washing machines if we export stuff. That's why exports ultimately drive imports. The only reason for manufacturers basing their operations in the UK in that scenario is that for market reasons it helps exports. Leaving our main market has the opposite effect. We're not going to win the price play because washing manufacturers can base themselves in Romania (as they already do, in fact) where they get low costs AND full integration into the EU market.
I'm not entirely certain tarriffs will dampen the UK consumer's appetite for foreign stuff. The national mindset is to complain about how expensive stuff is, then pay over the odds anyway... we're price inelastic on alot of stuff tbh.
Did you mean "Having a baby is an act of destruction; Brexit is an act of destruction. It's more akin to having a vasectomy and then realising you long to have a daughter to brighten the long Easter weekend."
Or
"Having a baby is not an act of destruction; Brexit is an act of destruction. It's more akin to having a vasectomy and then realising you long to have a daughter to brighten the long Easter weekend."
Oops, yes I meant the latter. Editing a sentence on a phone isn't worth the risk of messing it up! Having a baby is a constructive act.
So, in essence, your position is: 1.) our negotiating position is hopeless and we should give up without a fight; and 2.) accept that we must now have a deferential relationship with the continental power.
I expect the SNP to win the election as they have won every democratic contest in Scotland since 2010.
Except one.
Yeah, they lost the Inverclyde by-election in 2011, that's what you meant?
Think there was a minor one in 2014 but the Nat Borg have wiped it from their memory vaults for at least a generation.
In that case, a generation in Scotland is about 3 years. If they can breed that fast we are all in trouble
Actually they didn't lose that one either - it was blatantly stolen from them by the duplicitous "vow" or something...
It was stolen by Dave hiding the secret oil fields and the whisky export duty revenues from Scotland.
I'm actually a but more concerned about Dave's promise of a £200b oil and gas boom that we would share in if we voted No. Any sign of that coming down the line?
It will happen once you have a government in Holyrood good with the economy and less obsessed with Indyref2.
You want that boom, you need to make Ruth Davidson First Minister.
The Cashmeister has spoken, it's not ours whatever happens.
A killer blow indeed... Is the Express billing the SNP for campaign expenses to print nonsense like this?
They've been doing marvellous work on our behalf entirely foc for years. We may even strike a special 'for services to' medal for them come the glorious day.
Another Unionist MSM olive branch - the dam is about to burst !
Is that how you think a market works? Let's take the example of techy but not that techy products - washing machines. The huge majority are imported, with German brands like Miele, Grundig, Bosch, Siemens, etc doing a roaring trade. As do non-EU imports. We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac). If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves. This puts pressure on all suppliers who want to make a profit selling washing machines in the UK. The £ price UK buyers will accept is going to be at a new equilibrium - same as the old one. Miele face lost sales or lost profit. The UK consumer will suffer only for those things we really can't make or procure from outside the EU. Samsung washing machine anyone? Haier? (These have zero impact on our BoP as we substitute non-EU product for EU, but Germany suffers a loss). The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around. The UK manufacturer faces a growth period. EU suppliers face loss of market or margin or both.
You are missing my main point though, which is that we can only afford washing machines if we export stuff. That's why exports ultimately drive imports. The only reason for manufacturers basing their operations in the UK in that scenario is that for market reasons it helps exports. Leaving our main market has the opposite effect. We're not going to win the price play because washing manufacturers can base themselves in Romania (as they already do, in fact) where they get low costs AND full integration into the EU market.
as a manufacturer I'd say that's total bollocks
Why?
Because a large amount of what we buy is for internal consumption. About 99% of what I make stays in the UK. I'm hardly alone in that scenario among SMEs.
... If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves.
You are making the assumption that the homemade and German products are of equal quality and reliability. In the past that was not the case and was the reason a lot of people bought German or Japanese products - because ours were inferior and often more expensive.
do we live in the 1970s forever ?
I was not saying that we do - what I was saying is that the unspoken assumption in Patrick's argument was that he was comparing like with like. That may or may not be the case. As I said "... in the past ... " that was not the case.
Over what timeframe? And with respect to both economics and democracy? It took 40 years to get our 'out' vote. I can be patient with at least a decade of adjustment pain. (even if I don't think there'll be much). You seem to think that because we may not be materially better off instantly then it's time to wail like a teenage girl on a rollercoaster. On the democracy question (always ignored by remainers) - we dodged a bullet. The EU is on an unwavering journey to becoming a superstate. A superstate we can't be part of. EU voters can't vote for a change of policy. They're serfs. Juncker's little minions.
That's a point of view. I don't have an issue with it. Actually I am very sympathetic to the argument that those most directly affected by decisions should make them. Also the fact we were semi-detached members of the EU meant we were at a disadvantage.
The issue I do have is that most Leavers made assumptions about Brexit that were never realistic and will unwind and are in fact starting to do so. That's going to make for a very uncomfortable existence for us and not just for the short term. Ultimately we will decide if it's worth it once we also factor in the very substantial costs in terms of money and disruption. Not that it really matters, of course. We're not going back.
Is that how you think a market works? Let's take the example of techy but not that techy products - washing machines. The huge majority are imported, with German brands like Miele, Grundig, Bosch, Siemens, etc doing a roaring trade. As do non-EU imports. We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac). If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves. This puts pressure on all suppliers who want to make a profit selling washing machines in the UK. The £ price UK buyers will accept is going to be at a new equilibrium - same as the old one. Miele face lost sales or lost profit. The UK consumer will suffer only for those things we really can't make or procure from outside the EU. Samsung washing machine anyone? Haier? (These have zero impact on our BoP as we substitute non-EU product for EU, but Germany suffers a loss). The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around. The UK manufacturer faces a growth period. EU suppliers face loss of market or margin or both.
You are missing my main point though, which is that we can only afford washing machines if we export stuff. That's why exports ultimately drive imports. The only reason for manufacturers basing their operations in the UK in that scenario is that for market reasons it helps exports. Leaving our main market has the opposite effect. We're not going to win the price play because washing manufacturers can base themselves in Romania (as they already do, in fact) where they get low costs AND full integration into the EU market.
as a manufacturer I'd say that's total bollocks
Why?
Because a large amount of what we buy is for internal consumption. About 99% of what I make stays in the UK. I'm hardly alone in that scenario among SMEs.
OK, but exports are funding the internal consumption, back to my point.
Is that how you think a market works? Let's take the example of techy but not that techy products - washing machines. The huge majority are imported, with German brands like Miele, Grundig, Bosch, Siemens, etc doing a roaring trade. As do non-EU imports. We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac). If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves. This puts pressure on all suppliers who want to make a profit selling washing machines in the UK. The £ price UK buyers will accept is going to be at a new equilibrium - same as the old one. Miele face lost sales or lost profit. The UK consumer will suffer only for those things we really can't make or procure from outside the EU. Samsung washing machine anyone? Haier? (These have zero impact on our BoP as we substitute non-EU product for EU, but Germany suffers a loss). The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around. The UK manufacturer faces a growth period. EU suppliers face loss of market or margin or both.
We might even get tumble dryers in our washing machines that actually work if we remove some of the bizarre energy restrictions imposed in recent years.
Is that why my combined washing machine/tumble dryer doesn't actually dry things? Really??
Serious question. I spent a lot of money on a (German) combo washer/dryer for my glam new kitchen, in the fond hope it meant I could dump my tumble dryer (which uglifies my bedroom). The damn combo dryer is utterly shite. Couldn't dry a slightly damp napkin in six hours.
I think on the day some potential Melenchoners will be scared back to Macron. If Fillon was doing worse then maybe they would take a punt on Melenchon, but as Fillon seems pretty stable, it could be seen as too risky.
Overall, Macron v MLP still seems the end result. Both seem to have had fairly lackluster campaigns recently though.
Melenchon's one point fall seems to be as a result of a one point gain for Hamon, I find that unlikely, given that Hamon is now so far behind that he realistically has no chance. I would wait for another poll or two before ditching Melenchon bets.
By every electoral contest I refer to the ones between the parties ie The Scottish General Election of 2011, the local elections of 2012, the European one of 2014, the UK General Election of 2015 and the Scottish General Election of 2016.
In two of these five the SNP gained an absolute majority of seats in Scotland, in three a plurality of votes. In all five the Tories were a minority.
Oh and still no unionist reference to the 53 per cent SNP in this week's YouGov sub sample - that is a majority not just a plurality.
Awww, that's adorable. You actually believe we care. So sweet.
So, in essence, your position is: 1.) our negotiating position is hopeless and we should give up without a fight; and 2.) accept that we must now have a deferential relationship with the continental power.
Not very British, is it?
I voted Remain, but have moved on, of course.
Are you trying to kid us, or yourself?
No. Since before the referendum, I have always been most interested in what leaving the EU would mean in terms of outcomes. I don't think Brexit is sensible, but it is a decision that people came to after considerable thought. I wouldn't try to overturn it, but do think we should try to make the best of it.
... If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves.
You are making the assumption that the homemade and German products are of equal quality and reliability. In the past that was not the case and was the reason a lot of people bought German or Japanese products - because ours were inferior and often more expensive.
do we live in the 1970s forever ?
I was not saying that we do - what I was saying is that the unspoken assumption in Patrick's argument was that he was comparing like with like. That may or may not be the case. As I said "... in the past ... " that was not the case.
I am comparing like with like. I have a Samsung washing machine. A top end one. I could have bought a Miele or a Siemens. I went Samsung (PC World doing a great deal in May). My choice made no impact to our national BoP but it did cost Miele or Siemens one unit of sales. At every level of quality and price we have EU options and non-EU options. The non-EU ones tend to cluster at the cheap and cheerful end - but not by any means exclusively so. We're about to find out how much Germany really values this market share.
Is that how you think a market works? Let's take the example of techy but not that techy products - washing machines. The huge majority are imported, with German brands like Miele, Grundig, Bosch, Siemens, etc doing a roaring trade. As do non-EU imports. We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac). If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves. This puts pressure on all suppliers who want to make a profit selling washing machines in the UK. The £ price UK buyers will accept is going to be at a new equilibrium - same as the old one. Miele face lost sales or lost profit. The UK consumer will suffer only for those things we really can't make or procure from outside the EU. Samsung washing machine anyone? Haier? (These have zero impact on our BoP as we substitute non-EU product for EU, but Germany suffers a loss). The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around. The UK manufacturer faces a growth period. EU suppliers face loss of market or margin or both.
You are missing my main point though, which is that we can only afford washing machines if we export stuff. That's why exports ultimately drive imports. The only reason for manufacturers basing their operations in the UK in that scenario is that for market reasons it helps exports. Leaving our main market has the opposite effect. We're not going to win the price play because washing manufacturers can base themselves in Romania (as they already do, in fact) where they get low costs AND full integration into the EU market.
as a manufacturer I'd say that's total bollocks
Why?
Because a large amount of what we buy is for internal consumption. About 99% of what I make stays in the UK. I'm hardly alone in that scenario among SMEs.
OK, but exports are funding the internal consumption, back to my point.
no they arent
expanding credit is funding consumption
if we were export dependent our economy would be in free fall
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Quite.
Labour cheerleaders are now keeping their fingers crossed for soft Brexit because they think it will anger the Tory right and split the party.
They fail to understand that:
- The Tory right care far more about British laws and sovereignty than they think. - The Tory right care far less about atlanticism than they think. - The Tory right care quite a lot more for Mrs May than Cameron/Osborne - The Tory traditionalists are going to win on domestic issues such as grammar schools in the coming years. Given the Venn diagram of Tory right and Tory traditionalists is almost a perfect circle, this will assuage any slight issues they may have on trade relations.
For purely partisan purposes, Labour cheerleaders should be hoping for the hardest of hard.
Edit to add:
In short, Mrs May is a far more typical Tory leader than Cameron could ever have been. Appealing to all parts of the party for different reasons.
I note that you cannot find it in yourself to believe that people who do not share your vision of Brexit also want what they believe is best for the UK. In the end, this is what will do for the right. They do not own my country's flag.
No, SO, we all know you mean well. You're a thoroughly decent old stick, and a much nicer person than many of the rest of us.
You're just wrong.
Tis always the way, isn't it?
The right think the left are good people with bad ideas.
The left think the right are bad people..
If PB is anything to go by, the right seems to believe that the left is made up of traitors who hate the UK.
Well, the great Left Wing party to which you belong is led by Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell, so, uh, you know. Case closed?
I left after the Livingstone whitewash. A bridge too far, even for me.
By every electoral contest I refer to the ones between the parties ie The Scottish General Election of 2011, the local elections of 2012, the European one of 2014, the UK General Election of 2015 and the Scottish General Election of 2016.
In two of these five the SNP gained an absolute majority of seats in Scotland, in three a plurality of votes. In all five the Tories were a minority.
Oh and still no unionist reference to the 53 per cent SNP in this week's YouGov sub sample - that is a majority not just a plurality.
Awww, that's adorable. You actually believe we care. So sweet.
'I'm going to show how much I don't care by replying to your post to tell you I don't care. That'll bloody show you!'
Ahem too late to edit - that 'story' (misread, sorry) just says he's 'set to race' for McLaren. It doesn't have any news. So, er, sorry. Fake news. Sad.
OK, but exports are funding the internal consumption, back to my point.
no they arent
expanding credit is funding consumption
if we were export dependent our economy would be in free fall
In the short term, yes. But that's probably not going to continue, as RCS has covered many times here. At which point we will rely on those exports that we are discarding so casually.
... If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves.
You are making the assumption that the homemade and German products are of equal quality and reliability. In the past that was not the case and was the reason a lot of people bought German or Japanese products - because ours were inferior and often more expensive.
do we live in the 1970s forever ?
I was not saying that we do - what I was saying is that the unspoken assumption in Patrick's argument was that he was comparing like with like. That may or may not be the case. As I said "... in the past ... " that was not the case.
I am comparing like with like. I have a Samsung washing machine. A top end one. I could have bought a Miele or a Siemens. I went Samsung (PC World doing a great deal in May). My choice made no impact to our national BoP but it did cost Miele or Siemens one unit of sales. At every level of quality and price we have EU options and non-EU options. The non-EU ones tend to cluster at the cheap and cheerful end - but not by any means exclusively so. We're about to find out how much Germany really values this market share.
Now you are moving the goalposts and comparing a two foreign products whereas your original post was talking about comparing a foreign product with a homegrown one and how that would benefit UK companies like Ebac.
"We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac). If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise."
Ahem too late to edit - that 'story' (misread, sorry) just says he's 'set to race' for McLaren. It doesn't have any news. So, er, sorry. Fake news. Sad.
By every electoral contest I refer to the ones between the parties ie The Scottish General Election of 2011, the local elections of 2012, the European one of 2014, the UK General Election of 2015 and the Scottish General Election of 2016.
In two of these five the SNP gained an absolute majority of seats in Scotland, in three a plurality of votes. In all five the Tories were a minority.
Oh and still no unionist reference to the 53 per cent SNP in this week's YouGov sub sample - that is a majority not just a plurality.
Awww, that's adorable. You actually believe we care. So sweet.
'I'm going to show how much I don't care by replying to your post to tell you I don't care. That'll bloody show you!'
So, in essence, your position is: 1.) our negotiating position is hopeless and we should give up without a fight; and 2.) accept that we must now have a deferential relationship with the continental power.
Not very British, is it?
I voted Remain, but have moved on, of course.
Are you trying to kid us, or yourself?
No. Since before the referendum, I have always been most interested in what leaving the EU would mean in terms of outcomes. I don't think Brexit is sensible, but it is a decision that people came to after considerable thought. I wouldn't try to overturn it, but do think we should try to make the best of it.
And you think making the best of it involves abject surrender? It's a view, I suppose.
Comments
Thank you Mr L. It would take more than that lot to get me down. I am my usual bright, happy self.
Broad brush generalisations are always wrong.
UK 59 > 66
France 61> 67
Spain 41 > 46
All pretty similar but:
Germany 82 > 80
The EU will only wqrk for the UK if we adopt European labour legislation, which nobody in this country is advocatiing.
In the Blair period the trend was very simple.
Multinat wants to reduce labour costs or increase productivity
.
Needs to transfer production and close a factory in the West - Germany France too difficult to do - so UK is the first port of call.
UK factory gets closed.
Multinat gets free access to UK market and has no down side.
More Admirals than ships.
SO - I've never doubted your patriotism, but you surely can't deny that some of the current Labour cheerleaders far more about beating Tories than almost everything else? Patriotism seems to be been seen, like working class culture, as something consigned to Labour Party history....
Germany and Italy have populations forecast to drop in the next 30 years
Let's take the example of techy but not that techy products - washing machines. The huge majority are imported, with German brands like Miele, Grundig, Bosch, Siemens, etc doing a roaring trade. As do non-EU imports. We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac).
If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves.
This puts pressure on all suppliers who want to make a profit selling washing machines in the UK. The £ price UK buyers will accept is going to be at a new equilibrium - same as the old one. Miele face lost sales or lost profit. The UK consumer will suffer only for those things we really can't make or procure from outside the EU. Samsung washing machine anyone? Haier? (These have zero impact on our BoP as we substitute non-EU product for EU, but Germany suffers a loss).
The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around.
The UK manufacturer faces a growth period.
EU suppliers face loss of market or margin or both.
Far more than an 8% drop in whinging, mind.
By every electoral contest I refer to the ones between the parties ie The Scottish General Election of 2011, the local elections of 2012, the European one of 2014, the UK General Election of 2015 and the Scottish General Election of 2016.
In two of these five the SNP gained an absolute majority of seats in Scotland, in three a plurality of votes. In all five the Tories were a minority.
Oh and still no unionist reference to the 53 per cent SNP in this week's YouGov sub sample - that is a majority not just a plurality.
You want that boom, you need to make Ruth Davidson First Minister.
Once we leave the EU, perhaps it will become a non issue again.
But in the meantime the Lib Dems will have picked up a lot of support from Remainers, probably the sort of liberal minded people who are sympathetic to Lib Dem policies on non EU issues.
So the Lib Dem strategy to go for the Remain vote may be a good longer term move.
https://twitter.com/krunox123/status/852408108831965184
I just want the latest numbers !
https://twitter.com/ChristinaSNP/status/852461302899515392
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-french-election/
Daily opinionway
Oh...
1.) our negotiating position is hopeless and we should give up without a fight; and
2.) accept that we must now have a deferential relationship with the continental power.
Not very British, is it?
Well they can't send a gunboat - it is already occupied off Gibraltar
Overall, Macron v MLP still seems the end result. Both seem to have had fairly lackluster campaigns recently though.
Just sayin' .......
It took 40 years to get our 'out' vote. I can be patient with at least a decade of adjustment pain. (even if I don't think there'll be much). You seem to think that because we may not be materially better off instantly then it's time to wail like a teenage girl on a rollercoaster.
On the democracy question (always ignored by remainers) - we dodged a bullet. The EU is on an unwavering journey to becoming a superstate. A superstate we can't be part of. EU voters can't vote for a change of policy. They're serfs. Juncker's little minions.
I do wonder if a small (but vocal) group are practically drunk on eurogrief.
Which reminds me, I need to write a review of Josephus' The Jewish War.
The 26-year-old is believed to have led a commando unit involved in killings, kidnappings, smuggling and extortion in Iraq."
http://news.sky.com/story/borussia-dortmund-bus-attack-suspect-was-islamic-state-fighter-10835233
Did you mean
"Having a baby is an act of destruction; Brexit is an act of destruction. It's more akin to having a vasectomy and then realising you long to have a daughter to brighten the long Easter weekend."
Or
"Having a baby is not an act of destruction; Brexit is an act of destruction. It's more akin to having a vasectomy and then realising you long to have a daughter to brighten the long Easter weekend."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/unionists-musn-t-harden-hearts-against-snp-bx7kqm386?CMP=Sprkr-_-Editorial-_-thetimesscot-_-News-_-Unspecified-_-Statement-_-Unspecified-_-ACCOUNT_TYPE&linkId=36391532
The issue I do have is that most Leavers made assumptions about Brexit that were never realistic and will unwind and are in fact starting to do so. That's going to make for a very uncomfortable existence for us and not just for the short term. Ultimately we will decide if it's worth it once we also factor in the very substantial costs in terms of money and disruption. Not that it really matters, of course. We're not going back.
titters....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39589767
If he wins, Alonso might get so angry he turns into The Incredible Hulk.
expanding credit is funding consumption
if we were export dependent our economy would be in free fall
"We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac).
If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39570585
Did anyone ask Canada?