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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast: The LD fight back and where they go next + the latest Ashcroft poll
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It's early afternoon in Sydney, so pinching a first would be demeaning.
But i think many shareholders want dividends - and they would continue to push for them.
This aligns their interests with government which i think is quite clever. Don't know how it works with foreign companies... Presumably they would have to still pay corporation tax to avoid having a competitive advantage.
Speculation concerning a stock market flotation and appearance in the FTSE 100 is also being talked of in hushed tones by financial journalists.
Not sure the claim 'Lib Dems seem to be recovering in the polls' stacks up, more flatlining.
My forecast for 12-14 seats on a 12-14% vote share in 2020 remains.
Here are the odds for the four teams that lost this week in the Champions League to turn it around and qualify:
Dortmund - 5/2
Barcelona - 5/1
Bayern - 37/10
Leicester - 6/1
Of the four I think Leicester are most likely to qualify, yet they are the longest odds. That's not to say that the 6/1 with Marathon Bet is value, but if it isn't then backing Juve, Real and Monaco probably is.
Shakespeare was more tactically acute than I expected. The half time sub and change of formation worked well to nullify Madrid. Parking the bus like the best.
Expect a very weak side against Palace, the return tie is going to be tremendous.
I am not sure Nigel Farage will be getting as many opportunities to lick the President's arse in future.
More importantly, where does this leave the UK? It's a tricky one to call. If Trump really has realised that a strong NATO and EU are fundamental to the US's interests, how do we play it? Clearly, any threats of reducing security cooperation with the Europeans would have to be predicated on the Americans giving that the green light. That looks far less likely now. As does some kind of special US/UK trade deal designed to screw the EU over.
As you say, it could all change again; but that actually makes it harder for us to build a sustainable, coherent position.
Maybe Assad will come out wearing a make America great again hat?
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/12/us/politics/steve-bannon-white-house-trump.html
He was known as Lord Cushion because he bore the imprint of the person who last sat on him - much as Trump does!
1. Trump is a genuine convert now that the influence of alt-right nihilists is waning in the face of reality.
2. He is somone who sways with the wind and is totally unpredictable.
Either way, the Atlanticist fantasy that many on the Europe-hating right were entertaining about Trump being a strong, reliable, anti-EU friend to Brexit Britain does not seem to be remotely credible now.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/791251/kim-jong-un-north-korea-imminent-war-pyongyang-immediate-evacuation
Does this sound like a thoughtful statesperson ?
“I said it was obsolete,” Trump recalled during a joint news conference at the White House. “It’s no longer obsolete.”...
Or an idiot ?
it would make it easier for us all to understand where youre coming from. :-)
Worldwide catastrophe may have been avoided .... but only just.
The point Mark makes in the podcast is an important one - there is a constituency of 'moderate' Leave voters (both moderate Tory and Labour-leaning people) who are concerned about the progression towards a harder Brexit for whom the LibDems offer an effective way to shoot across the government's bows,
I return to PB to find remainer gloom and leaver petty griping. Really we need to up the tone of this site or we wont enjoy the summer.
Lets be honest there are no real penalties, sanctions or consequences for not doing so. Say down to 1.5%, that would free up cash for other areas, decrease borrowing or allow for lower tax increases/reductions...
I am a very soft Brexiteer these days, don't you know! Recent developments fill me with hope.
It's already April and he hasnt even issued his traditional drought warning.
I'd humbly suggest it's folly on stilts to weaken ourselves deliberately even further. The armed services are critically understaffed.
If we're going to not spend some money please can we not spend £10bn on DfiD - Lambos n Mercs for dictators and a spurious number pulled out of Dave's butt for PR purposes.
But it brought waves of righteous joy to many on the board.
You can cheer up now, Osbornes gone and the economy is in with a chance.
I think they will find it more difficult than it should be because it looks like the Tory vote will be up too. They may well get an increase in their vote without a lot of reward but even that would be a start. There may be some easy pickings off the carcass of Labour but in these particular elections Labour is already a bit player with not much to lose and where they do have seats the Lib Dems are pretty weak.
Overall I expect net gains but I think that they will be modest.
I'd go for 2 myself.
However I wonder somewhat about your latter point on the EU and softness. Most MEPs appear to have roughly the same grasp of reality as Donald Trump (it has come to something when Guy Verhofstadt looks sane by comparison). My suspicion is that even if the Russians were invading Poland the EU Parliament will still impose a full hard Brexit on us for daring to interfere with their dream of a fully federal continent wide EU.
Typically, it was when I had just got in the materials to finally landscape the garden.
http://www.europarl.org.uk/en/events-info/brexit
Which is why WTO is the likeliest result.
Indeed the answer to the conundrum as to why LibDems are doing well in by-elections but not in "next GE" polling may be that the latter only picks up the Remain LibDems whereas 'soft Leave' people too are willing to back them in an actual election to fire across government bows, as both Mark and I are suggesting.
A better way to save money on military spending would be to stop the warmongering that British politicians are so prone to.
But this is a drop in the ocean. The services need boots, kit, training and ammo. And pay. Soldiers' pay is fucking disgrace.
Trump out of line with U.K. Government = bad for the UK
Clear?
but special pleading isnt new, weve had tons of it while we were in the EU
This change in position was always predictable and May had nothing to do with it.
The best outcome from here is the soft Brexit the Tory right would hate. Trump is making it more likely.
"If other countries pay their fair share instead of relying on the United States to make up the difference we will all be much more secure," said the US president.
Copeland -3.0%
Stoke Central -11.9%
Sleaford -7.2%
Richmond Park +6.9%
Witney +10.8%
Not much evidence there that the LibDems are picking up 'soft Leave' votes. Rather that they have potential in middle class Remain areas.
The drought is a concern, of course ;-)