So, in essence, your position is: 1.) our negotiating position is hopeless and we should give up without a fight; and 2.) accept that we must now have a deferential relationship with the continental power.
Not very British, is it?
The EU isn't merely the continental power though, is it? A significant part of the UK as originally constituted is quite happy in the EU, in the single currency, and has no intention of changing that. We are not Japan to the EU's China.
OK, but exports are funding the internal consumption, back to my point.
no they arent
expanding credit is funding consumption
if we were export dependent our economy would be in free fall
In the short term, yes. But that's probably not going to continue, as RCS has covered many times here. At which point we will rely on those exports that we are discarding so casually.
most of RCS comments on exports relate to how a balanced BOP is preferable, not that unending exports is the source of eternal joy.
you have to both export and supply your domestic market. Too much of the UK BOP problem is because we have allowed our production base to decay. It;s not even in hi tech sensitive areas but HP sauce ( NL ), Bendicks mints ( D )?
I expect the SNP to win the election as they have won every democratic contest in Scotland since 2010.
Except one.
Yeah, they lost the Inverclyde by-election in 2011, that's what you meant?
Think there was a minor one in 2014 but the Nat Borg have wiped it from their memory vaults for at least a generation.
In that case, a generation in Scotland is about 3 years. If they can breed that fast we are all in trouble
Actually they didn't lose that one either - it was blatantly stolen from them by the duplicitous "vow" or something...
It was stolen by Dave hiding the secret oil fields and the whisky export duty revenues from Scotland.
I'm actually a but more concerned about Dave's promise of a £200b oil and gas boom that we would share in if we voted No. Any sign of that coming down the line?
It will happen once you have a government in Holyrood good with the economy and less obsessed with Indyref2.
You want that boom, you need to make Ruth Davidson First Minister.
The Cashmeister has spoken, it's not ours whatever happens.
I wish the Remain side had felt able to have a bit more of that sort of thing, and a bit less of the "Brexit will cost you N zillion quid". Sometimes I think we collectively are like the Bourbons, knoing the price of everything and the value of nothing.
I expect the SNP to win the election as they have won every democratic contest in Scotland since 2010.
Except one.
Yeah, they lost the Inverclyde by-election in 2011, that's what you meant?
Think there was a minor one in 2014 but the Nat Borg have wiped it from their memory vaults for at least a generation.
In that case, a generation in Scotland is about 3 years. If they can breed that fast we are all in trouble
Actually they didn't lose that one either - it was blatantly stolen from them by the duplicitous "vow" or something...
It was stolen by Dave hiding the secret oil fields and the whisky export duty revenues from Scotland.
I'm actually a but more concerned about Dave's promise of a £200b oil and gas boom that we would share in if we voted No. Any sign of that coming down the line?
It will happen once you have a government in Holyrood good with the economy and less obsessed with Indyref2.
You want that boom, you need to make Ruth Davidson First Minister.
The Cashmeister has spoken, it's not ours whatever happens.
It's possible that the recent focus on his potential has drawn attention to his programme, which even I as a born-again leftist feel is a tiny bit bonkers.
So, in essence, your position is: 1.) our negotiating position is hopeless and we should give up without a fight; and 2.) accept that we must now have a deferential relationship with the continental power.
Not very British, is it?
The EU isn't merely the continental power though, is it? A significant part of the UK as originally constituted is quite happy in the EU, in the single currency, and has no intention of changing that. We are not Japan to the EU's China.
A.) it is now; B.) your second observation is irrelevant (even if true, which is debatable) to the first; and C.) actually, we kind of are - it's an ok-ish parallel.
But I know you aren't going to agree, so let's not clog up the airwaves beating this to death.
So, in essence, your position is: 1.) our negotiating position is hopeless and we should give up without a fight; and 2.) accept that we must now have a deferential relationship with the continental power.
Not very British, is it?
The EU isn't merely the continental power though, is it? A significant part of the UK as originally constituted is quite happy in the EU, in the single currency, and has no intention of changing that. We are not Japan to the EU's China.
A.) it is now; B.) your second observation is irrelevant (even if true, which is debatable) to the first; and C.) actually, we kind of are - it's an ok-ish parallel.
But I know you aren't going to agree, so let's not clog up the airwaves beating this to death.
A land border in Northern Ireland which the government has no clue what to do about says that it is highly relevant.
And you think making the best of it involves abject surrender? It's a view, I suppose.
It raises awkward questions for both Remainers and Leavers. For Remainers because we will get something worse than what we had before and Leavers because we will get something that goes against what they voted for. That's the knot we have to untie.
And you think making the best of it involves abject surrender? It's a view, I suppose.
It raises awkward questions for both Remainers and Leavers. For Remainers because we will get something worse than what we had before and Leavers because we will get something that goes against what they voted for. That's the knot we have to untie.
And you think making the best of it involves abject surrender? It's a view, I suppose.
It raises awkward questions for both Remainers and Leavers. For Remainers because we will get something worse than what we had before and Leavers because we will get something that goes against what they voted for. That's the knot we have to untie.
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....
Now you are moving the goalposts and comparing a two foreign products whereas your original post was talking about comparing a foreign product with a homegrown one and how that would benefit UK companies like Ebac.
"We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac). If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise."
Actually I'm saying both. If we get no deal then EU imports to the UK will drop. No question. Volume and value. Also UK home grown production will rise. Probably mostly for domestic consumtion but not all. As long as it's profitable it will happen. Will affect different industries differently and at different speeds. Initially (and perhaps ever) the UK production will not be as large as the move to alternative sources of import (as in the case of my Samsung). Not our problem but the EU's. My key point remains - if a good is substitutable either domestically or by non-EU imports then the UK has nothing to lose. The EU does. That may not be true if there are classes of EU product that we can only get from them. Then we'll just have to absorb a tariff (if we choose to do so).
And you think making the best of it involves abject surrender? It's a view, I suppose.
It raises awkward questions for both Remainers and Leavers. For Remainers because we will get something worse than what we had before and Leavers because we will get something that goes against what they voted for. That's the knot we have to untie.
What will be "worse than we had before"?
A Ceuta style wall around Gibraltar?
That'd be nice. Keep the dagos out.
Hopefully when Trump's wall builders are finished there will be some barbed wire left over.
And you think making the best of it involves abject surrender? It's a view, I suppose.
It raises awkward questions for both Remainers and Leavers. For Remainers because we will get something worse than what we had before and Leavers because we will get something that goes against what they voted for. That's the knot we have to untie.
What will be "worse than we had before"?
For Remainers, a loss of influence as well as restrictions on movement and trade are probably the main ones. To compensate, UK governments will probably agree to pretty much everything the EU asks of it, even if nominally they can now refuse, dependent on both sides being willing to deal. This isn't the reason why people voted Leave, in my estimation.
Lawyers for a passenger forcibly removed from a United Airlines flight have filed an emergency court request for the airline to preserve evidence.
David Dao was filmed being dragged off the overbooked flight at Chicago O'Hare airport, bloodied and screaming, in a video watched millions of times online.
United Airlines said it would refund the ticket costs of all passengers on Sunday's flight.
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?
Presumably the fratricidal Irish Civil war, due to partition and the Irish Free State vs the 32 counties sovereignty supporters.
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?
De Valera's big mistake was not going in person to London in 1921 for the peace talks. He in placed himself on a par with the King as Head of State and therefore didn't attend.
Not sure if that's what Malmesbury is getting at though.
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.
As a Scot, I see the similarities more between Ireland and Scotland. First of all, that Ireland was an economic basketcase for the first fifty years of its existence. Even if we would (almost certainly) avoid some really bad mistakes the Irish made, I am not keen, for example, on copying the Irish welfare policy: we will stop you dying in the street, but if you can work and don't have a job you emigrate. I also find Ireland to be a culturally insular place, which I don't really want Scotland to copy, even though they have had deserved success in recent years
... If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise. Maybe new players start UK operations (truly new or exosting brands approving investments). If money can be made making washing machines in the UK it will be. BoP improves.
You are making the assumption that the homemade and German products are of equal quality and reliability. In the past that was not the case and was the reason a lot of people bought German or Japanese products - because ours were inferior and often more expensive.
do we live in the 1970s forever ?
I was not saying that we do - what I was saying is that the unspoken assumption in Patrick's argument was that he was comparing like with like. That may or may not be the case. As I said "... in the past ... " that was not the case.
I am comparing like with like. I have a Samsung washing machine. A top end one. I could have bought a Miele or a Siemens. I went Samsung (PC World doing a great deal in May). My choice made no impact to our national BoP but it did cost Miele or Siemens one unit of sales. At every level of quality and price we have EU options and non-EU options. The non-EU ones tend to cluster at the cheap and cheerful end - but not by any means exclusively so. We're about to find out how much Germany really values this market share.
I think Samsung washing machines for the UK market are made in Poland so your choice had no affect on EU-UK BoP
Reshoring of manufacturing after Brexit is largely a myth. As the Jaguar CEO said, the UK market is too small to support domestic manufacturers of components and it was only being part of the single market that gave us that scale.
Now you are moving the goalposts and comparing a two foreign products whereas your original post was talking about comparing a foreign product with a homegrown one and how that would benefit UK companies like Ebac.
"We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac). If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise."
Does anyone realistically believe that we are going to have tariffs on goods bought and sold between the EU and the UK? It's absurd. It's just as absurd as someone claiming their 85 yr old grandmother who is originally Spanish and has lived here for 40 years is going to get deported. Utter nonsense.
Where the real negotiations take place is around frictionless access to the single market and the maintaining of more sophisticated supply chains with the minimum of paperwork (if any).
Lawyers for a passenger forcibly removed from a United Airlines flight have filed an emergency court request for the airline to preserve evidence.
David Dao was filmed being dragged off the overbooked flight at Chicago O'Hare airport, bloodied and screaming, in a video watched millions of times online.
United Airlines said it would refund the ticket costs of all passengers on Sunday's flight.
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.
I don't. What is it?
Brexit Britain risks becoming DeValera's Ireland.
And yet the press is full of stories about people scrabbling around trying to get British Citizenship.
The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around.
If tariffs on washing machine imports are introduced...
Then UK consumers will have to pay higher prices for EU products.
If they choose to substitute to other brands- then they are losing out on buying their preferred product at a previously available price.
Possibly. A £300 washing machine might attract a WTO tariff of a few %. So nominally now costing around £315. But the supplier may not wish to lose share. They will inevitably absorb some of the £15 from their profit margin. Sorry Miele. Let's say that leaves Mr UK Consumer being asked for £307 by Miele. The rather nice looking Samsung in the next aisle is being deliberately aggressively priced at £275 to win share. The consumer is getting a better choice of offers now. The big hairy point in the corner is that this is not earth shattering stuff. All producers and consumers will settle into a new free market equilibrium. Some new products will get a look in for the first time. We'll still traipse round Currys on a Sunday buying washing machines at essentially the same price as today. And we'll make a few more too. It's not the apocalypse some remainers paint.
The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around.
If tariffs on washing machine imports are introduced...
Then UK consumers will have to pay higher prices for EU products.
If they choose to substitute to other brands- then they are losing out on buying their preferred product at a previously available price.
Possibly. A £300 washing machine might attract a WTO tariff of a few %. So nominally now costing around £315. But the supplier may not wish to lose share. They will inevitably absorb some of the £15 from their profit margin. Sorry Miele. Let's say that leaves Mr UK Consumer being asked for £307 by Miele. The rather nice looking Samsung in the next aisle is being deliberately aggressively priced at £275 to win share. The consumer is getting a better choice of offers now. The big hairy point in the corner is that this is not earth shattering stuff. All producers and consumers will settle into a new free market equilibrium. Some new products will get a look in for the first time. We'll still traipse round Currys on a Sunday buying washing machines at essentially the same price as today. And we'll make a few more too. It's not the apocalypse some remainers paint.
Okay - good to see you backing down from zero price risk.
You're right that small price increases from tariffs won't be a huge deal. But it will be a net negative not positive for consumers.
Non tariff barriers will be more problematic but a deal can be found. Edit - it's unlikely to be one that doesn't involve loss of sovereignty in the eyes of Brexiteers.
The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around.
If tariffs on washing machine imports are introduced...
Then UK consumers will have to pay higher prices for EU products.
If they choose to substitute to other brands- then they are losing out on buying their preferred product at a previously available price.
Possibly. A £300 washing machine might attract a WTO tariff of a few %. So nominally now costing around £315. But the supplier may not wish to lose share. They will inevitably absorb some of the £15 from their profit margin. Sorry Miele. Let's say that leaves Mr UK Consumer being asked for £307 by Miele. The rather nice looking Samsung in the next aisle is being deliberately aggressively priced at £275 to win share. The consumer is getting a better choice of offers now. The big hairy point in the corner is that this is not earth shattering stuff. All producers and consumers will settle into a new free market equilibrium. Some new products will get a look in for the first time. We'll still traipse round Currys on a Sunday buying washing machines at essentially the same price as today. And we'll make a few more too. It's not the apocalypse some remainers paint.
Okay - good to see you backing down from zero price risk.
You're right that small price increases from tariffs won't be a huge deal. But it will be a net negative not positive for consumers.
Non tariff barriers will be more problematic but a deal can be found.
Non-zero price risk if you are still stubbornly determined to buy an EU sourced product! Zero price risk if you shop around. Probably some very good and aggressive deals being offered as the UK becomes a price war zone. Overall positive for consumers. Not a positive for consumers whose demand is for 'that Miele' rather than 'a really nice washing machine at a good price'.
Now you are moving the goalposts and comparing a two foreign products whereas your original post was talking about comparing a foreign product with a homegrown one and how that would benefit UK companies like Ebac.
"We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac). If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise."
Does anyone realistically believe that we are going to have tariffs on goods bought and sold between the EU and the UK? It's absurd. It's just as absurd as someone claiming their 85 yr old grandmother who is originally Spanish and has lived here for 40 years is going to get deported. Utter nonsense.
Where the real negotiations take place is around frictionless access to the single market and the maintaining of more sophisticated supply chains with the minimum of paperwork (if any).
" real negotiations take place is around frictionless access to the single market " - is that even a possibility?
Is it a coincidence that as soon as The Met police cut the number of "stop and search" for political correctness (led by TMay) gun and knife crime has surged in London? I have a feeling the two are linked,especially since it was consistently falling in recent years.
Now you are moving the goalposts and comparing a two foreign products whereas your original post was talking about comparing a foreign product with a homegrown one and how that would benefit UK companies like Ebac.
"We also have smaller UK manufacturers who have re-entered the market (such as Ebac). If we get a WTO 'no-deal' tariffed arrangement then the German machines are going to get pricier. With a further fall in Sterling, even pricier. EU imports will fall. Ebac and the like start to be alot more competitive internally (and externally). Their sales will rise."
Does anyone realistically believe that we are going to have tariffs on goods bought and sold between the EU and the UK? It's absurd. It's just as absurd as someone claiming their 85 yr old grandmother who is originally Spanish and has lived here for 40 years is going to get deported. Utter nonsense.
Where the real negotiations take place is around frictionless access to the single market and the maintaining of more sophisticated supply chains with the minimum of paperwork (if any).
You are extremely complacent. No tariff effectively means single market without the benefit of paperwork. That will not happen.
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around.
If tariffs on washing machine imports are introduced...
Then UK consumers will have to pay higher prices for EU products.
If they choose to substitute to other brands- then they are losing out on buying their preferred product at a previously available price.
Possibly. A £300 washing machine might attract a WTO tariff of a few %. So nominally now costing around £315. But the supplier may not wish to lose share. They will inevitably absorb some of the £15 from their profit margin. Sorry Miele. Let's say that leaves Mr UK Consumer being asked for £307 by Miele. The rather nice looking Samsung in the next aisle is being deliberately aggressively priced at £275 to win share. The consumer is getting a better choice of offers now. The big hairy point in the corner is that this is not earth shattering stuff. All producers and consumers will settle into a new free market equilibrium. Some new products will get a look in for the first time. We'll still traipse round Currys on a Sunday buying washing machines at essentially the same price as today. And we'll make a few more too. It's not the apocalypse some remainers paint.
Okay - good to see you backing down from zero price risk.
You're right that small price increases from tariffs won't be a huge deal. But it will be a net negative not positive for consumers.
Non tariff barriers will be more problematic but a deal can be found.
Non-zero price risk if you are still stubbornly determined to buy an EU sourced product! Zero price risk if you shop around. Probably some very good and aggressive deals being offered as the UK becomes a price war zone. Overall positive for consumers. Not a positive for consumers whose demand is for 'that Miele' rather than 'a really nice washing machine at a good price'.
Yeah I'm sorry but i don't think you really understand the economics on this. Google effect of tariffs on consumers.
If EU companies' prices go up because of tariffs... That reduces price competition and means domestic/non EU companies can raise their prices.
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.
I don't. What is it?
Brexit Britain risks becoming DeValera's Ireland.
And yet the press is full of stories about people scrabbling around trying to get British Citizenship.
and also full of people trying to get EU, particularly Irish citizenship like our own Bev C, Nd ironically Mr Farage if reports are correct!
Is it a coincidence that as soon as The Met police cut the number of "stop and search" for political correctness (led by TMay) gun and knife crime has surged in London? I have a feeling the two are linked,especially since it was consistently falling in recent years.
'stop and search for political correctness'
"Excuse me sir, do you know what the Q stands for in LGBTIQ+? If not, you're nicked!"
The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around.
If tariffs on washing machine imports are introduced...
Then UK consumers will have to pay higher prices for EU products.
If they choose to substitute to other brands- then they are losing out on buying their preferred product at a previously available price.
Possibly. A £300 washing machine might attract a WTO tariff of a few %. So nominally now costing around £315. But the supplier may not wish to lose share. They will inevitably absorb some of the £15 from their profit margin. Sorry Miele. Let's say that leaves Mr UK Consumer being asked for £307 by Miele. The rather nice looking Samsung in the next aisle is being deliberately aggressively priced at £275 to win share. The consumer is getting a better choice of offers now. The big hairy point in the corner is that this is not earth shattering stuff. All producers and consumers will settle into a new free market equilibrium. Some new products will get a look in for the first time. We'll still traipse round Currys on a Sunday buying washing machines at essentially the same price as today. And we'll make a few more too. It's not the apocalypse some remainers paint.
Okay - good to see you backing down from zero price risk.
You're right that small price increases from tariffs won't be a huge deal. But it will be a net negative not positive for consumers.
Non tariff barriers will be more problematic but a deal can be found.
Non-zero price risk if you are still stubbornly determined to buy an EU sourced product! Zero price risk if you shop around. Probably some very good and aggressive deals being offered as the UK becomes a price war zone. Overall positive for consumers. Not a positive for consumers whose demand is for 'that Miele' rather than 'a really nice washing machine at a good price'.
...means domestic/non EU companies can raise their prices.
They can. The ones who don't then clean up the market share. Market equilibrium returns. A higher price generally only results from a higher supply cost generally. If only some of the supply options get higher cost it moves the share around between suppliers. The phenomenon you describe would co-exist with price gouging by other suppliers. You also omitted the Google bit saying 'more domestic companies are willing to produce the good'. That's not a tiny detail either.
Is it a coincidence that as soon as The Met police cut the number of "stop and search" for political correctness (led by TMay) gun and knife crime has surged in London? I have a feeling the two are linked,especially since it was consistently falling in recent years.
'stop and search for political correctness'
"Excuse me sir, do you know what the Q stands for in LGBTIQ+? If not, you're nicked!"
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
Is it a coincidence that as soon as The Met police cut the number of "stop and search" for political correctness (led by TMay) gun and knife crime has surged in London? I have a feeling the two are linked,especially since it was consistently falling in recent years.
'stop and search for political correctness'
"Excuse me sir, do you know what the Q stands for in LGBTIQ+? If not, you're nicked!"
Please sir, is it Quisling?
It's QWERTY - a shorthand way of adding the whole of the keyboard to the acronym.
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.
As a Scot, I see the similarities more between Ireland and Scotland. First of all, that Ireland was an economic basketcase for the first fifty years of its existence. Even if we would (almost certainly) avoid some really bad mistakes the Irish made, I am not keen, for example, on copying the Irish welfare policy: we will stop you dying in the street, but if you can work and don't have a job you emigrate. I also find Ireland to be a culturally insular place, which I don't really want Scotland to copy, even though they have had deserved success in recent years
Ireland was way way behind where Scotland are when it went on its own, hardly comparable.
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
Serious question. I spent a lot of money on a (German) combo washer/dryer for my glam new kitchen, in the fond hope it meant I could dump my tumble dryer (which uglifies my bedroom). The damn combo dryer is utterly shite. Couldn't dry a slightly damp napkin in six hours.
Is this coz of the EU?! Or some weird law?
Is it a "condensing" dryer, and have you emptied the tank...?
The soft Brexit/hard Brexit dichotomy is eminently bridgeable. Once we are out we are out. Our share of trade with the EU will fall, as it has been for many years now. Over time we will drift away from the overly bureaucratic approach that the EU has to every problem.
It is a favourite theme of many on here that a soft Brexit now will leave Brexiteers high and dry and frothing. I just don't see it. They have won and time will deliver all that they wanted for good or ill. Those looking for great splits in the Tories are going to be disappointed. They are more united than they have been since Maastricht.
Largely agree with this. Unless it all blows up (quite possible) it's going to be a pretty soft Bendy Brexit, with a transitional deal. Even Free Movement will continue for a while, albeit with significant tweaks.
But, over time we will naturally pivot further from Brussels. Our mindset will slowly but surely change, until the idea of rejoining seems laughably absurd.
Only a few Ultra-Remainers or Hardcore Brexiteers will be dismayed enough to kick up a career-ending fuss.
A chap I know, who works for/with the core Eurosceptics, said that a comparison that has made the rounds and been agreed with was this - "Not to make De Valera's original mistake".....
Can i ask what that " mistake" was?
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
Emigration from Ireland - see link is consistently higher over the past few years than before 2010.
Yes, for the first time since the plantation in the nineties and noughties Ireland switched to net inward migration. The GFC reversed that for a few years, but just about back to inward flow.
Immigrants tend to go where the work is, the quickest way of stopping migration is crashing the economy and a steep rise in unemployment, for example early eighties UK. It demonstrates how incompatible the Brexit aims of prosperity and immigration control are.
The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around.
If tariffs on washing machine imports are introduced...
Then UK consumers will have to pay higher prices for EU products.
If they choose to substitute to other brands- then they are losing out on buying their preferred product at a previously available price.
Possibly. A £300 washing machine might attract a WTO tariff of a few %. So nominally now costing around £315. But the supplier may not wish to lose share. They will inevitably absorb some of the £15 from their profit margin. Sorry Miele. Let's say that leaves Mr UK Consumer being asked for £307 by Miele. The rather nice looking Samsung in the next aisle is being deliberately aggressively priced at £275 to win share. The consumer is getting a better choice of offers now. The big hairy point in the corner is that this is not earth shattering stuff. All producers and consumers will settle into a new free market equilibrium. Some new products will get a look in for the first time. We'll still traipse round Currys on a Sunday buying washing machines at essentially the same price as today. And we'll make a few more too. It's not the apocalypse some remainers paint.
Okay - good to see you backing down from zero price risk.
You're right that small price increases from tariffs won't be a huge deal. But it will be a net negative not positive for consumers.
Non tariff barriers will be more problematic but a deal can be found.
Non-zero price risk if you are still stubbornly determined to buy an EU sourced product! Zero price risk if you shop around. Probably some very good and aggressive deals being offered as the UK becomes a price war zone. Overall positive for consumers. Not a positive for consumers whose demand is for 'that Miele' rather than 'a really nice washing machine at a good price'.
...means domestic/non EU companies can raise their prices.
They can. The ones who don't then clean up the market share. Market equilibrium returns. A higher price generally only results from a higher supply cost generally. If only some of the supply options get higher cost it moves the share around between suppliers. The phenomenon you describe would co-exist with price gouging by other suppliers. You also omitted the Google bit saying 'more domestic companies are willing to produce the good'. That's not a tiny detail either.
Of course domestic producers benefit - you've reduced their competition!
It's utterly disgraceful. I have two friends who married in England over 50 years ago. She kept German citizenship. At the time, I don't think you could have both.
She's never applied for formal residency. It wasn't needed in the 1960s and she wrongly assumed marriage was enough. She now fears that she could be deported, especially if she outlives her husband.
How many million UK residents aren't actually 'residents'?
I wish the Remain side had felt able to have a bit more of that sort of thing, and a bit less of the "Brexit will cost you N zillion quid". Sometimes I think we collectively are like the Bourbons, knoing the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Of course, the reason that the federalists never tried to sell the Project is that they knew that would lead to heavy defeat.
Serious question. I spent a lot of money on a (German) combo washer/dryer for my glam new kitchen, in the fond hope it meant I could dump my tumble dryer (which uglifies my bedroom). The damn combo dryer is utterly shite. Couldn't dry a slightly damp napkin in six hours.
Is this coz of the EU?! Or some weird law?
Is it a "condensing" dryer, and have you emptied the tank...?
Condensing dryers usually only fill the tank if they are not plumbed in. I would expect a washer /dryer to send the water straight down the drain...
I wish the Remain side had felt able to have a bit more of that sort of thing, and a bit less of the "Brexit will cost you N zillion quid". Sometimes I think we collectively are like the Bourbons, knoing the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Of course, the reason that the federalists never tried to sell the Project is that they knew that would lead to heavy defeat.
It led to a heavy defeat for the Eurosceptics in 1975. The same would happen again if we had less feeble pro-European politicians.
Dortmund are unhappy that the match was rearranged for the following day. I must say it seemed a bit quick for players who had just survived a terrorist attack to refocus on football
It's utterly disgraceful. I have two friends who married in England over 50 years ago. She kept German citizenship. At the time, I don't think you could have both.
She's never applied for formal residency. It wasn't needed in the 1960s and she wrongly assumed marriage was enough. She now fears that she could be deported, especially if she outlives her husband.
How many million UK residents aren't actually 'residents'?
Actually, they need to be worrying more about this
I would be surprised if Reciprocal Healthcare arrangements survived Brexit and these are the sort of people who use up lots of NHS resource, meanwhile the EU workers in the NHS are leaving at twice the pre-Brexit rate.
Was that his De Valera's trade war with the UK? David Davis was talking earlier about initiating one with the EU, but I think they have pulled back from that now.
Or possibly Ireland's inward looking isolationism, and neutrality during an existential war in Europe.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.
As a Scot, I see the similarities more between Ireland and Scotland. First of all, that Ireland was an economic basketcase for the first fifty years of its existence. Even if we would (almost certainly) avoid some really bad mistakes the Irish made, I am not keen, for example, on copying the Irish welfare policy: we will stop you dying in the street, but if you can work and don't have a job you emigrate. I also find Ireland to be a culturally insular place, which I don't really want Scotland to copy, even though they have had deserved success in recent years
Ireland was way way behind where Scotland are when it went on its own, hardly comparable.
True in terms of degree, but not of effect. The route to success that Ireland took in the nineties isn't open to us, when it caught the first wave of globalisation and got US companies to set up European operations there. In thirty or fifty years time something equivalent may come up for us that we can't predict at the outset. It's an uncertain prospectus for a new country however and things will be pretty austere in the meantime.
The UK consumer faces zero price rise risk - they can and will shop around.
If tariffs on washing machine imports are introduced...
Then UK consumers will have to pay higher prices for EU products.
If they choose to substitute to other brands- then they are losing out on buying their preferred product at a previously available price.
Possibly. A £300 washing machine might attract a WTO tariff of a few %. So nominally now costing around £315. But the supplier may not wish to lose share. They will inevitably absorb some of the £15 from their profit margin. Sorry Miele. Let's say that leaves Mr UK Consumer being asked for £307 by Miele. The rather nice looking Samsung in the next aisle is being deliberately aggressively priced at £275 to win share. The consumer is getting a better choice of offers now. The big hairy point in the corner is that this is not earth shattering stuff. All producers and consumers will settle into a new free market equilibrium. Some new products will get a look in for the first time. We'll still traipse round Currys on a Sunday buying washing machines at essentially the same price as today. And we'll make a few more too. It's not the apocalypse some remainers paint.
Okay - good to see you backing down from zero price risk.
You're right that small price increases from tariffs won't be a huge deal. But it will be a net negative not positive for consumers.
Non tariff barriers will be more problematic but a deal can be found.
Non-zero price risk if you are still stubbornly determined to buy an EU sourced product! Zero price risk if you shop around. Probably some very good and aggressive deals being offered as the UK becomes a price war zone. Overall positive for consumers. Not a positive for consumers whose demand is for 'that Miele' rather than 'a really nice washing machine at a good price'.
...means domestic/non EU companies can raise their prices.
They can. The ones who don't then clean up the market share. Market equilibrium returns. A higher price generally only results from a higher supply cost generally. If only some of the supply options get higher cost it moves the share around between suppliers. The phenomenon you describe would co-exist with price gouging by other suppliers. You also omitted the Google bit saying 'more domestic companies are willing to produce the good'. That's not a tiny detail either.
Of course domestic producers benefit - you've reduced their competition!
Here's a tweet from the main guy at the office that wrote that report
@davidealgebris Mar 25 More For all our Grandparents who gave their life to build a Peacefull and open Europe, European United we stand Happy Birthday Europe #EU60
They're just mad Federalists, like you. Europe is their Catholic faith, Brexit is Reformation and Protestantism. Conceptually, it cannot succeed. It is heretical.
Why do you want mothers who have conceived as a result of rape to be denied child benefit?
That's ever so slightly disingenuous. The point is, why should you have to prove you were raped before your child can get welfare?
Because the new welfare system allows benefits for two children and no more. So if any more are born, unless it can be proved it was due to circumstances outside the mother's control, they do not get benefits.
Incidentally without wishing to sound all Malthusian wouldn't three be a more logical number than two? It would allow for the replacement rate being more than 2.
Here's a tweet from the main guy at the office that wrote that report
@davidealgebris Mar 25 More For all our Grandparents who gave their life to build a Peacefull and open Europe, European United we stand Happy Birthday Europe #EU60
They're just mad Federalists, like you. Europe is their Catholic faith, Brexit is Reformation and Protestantism. Conceptually, it cannot succeed. It is heretical.
It's hardly the most objective report.
I was especially intrigued by the assertion that France is rejecting populist politics.
Currently, GDP per capita is about $40,000 per annum in the UK. The economic argument about Brexit turns on whether it will be $46,000 or $48,000 in 2030.
I note Melenchon's now in to 11.5/12 on Betfair. Seriously tempting me to take some profit...
Yes, I suggested that yesterday and took my own advice for half the profits. I like the *idea* of a left-wing candidate surging up on the rails in the final furlong. But I don't actually think Melanchon's programme makes sense, and I doubt if more trhan 20% of voters will vote for it on the first ballot.
But the fact that he's eclipsed the mainstream (also quite left-wing) socialist Harmon illustrates again the problems that moderate social democracy is having all over Europe. Potential supporters want red meat, or they want Blair-style charisma. Quiet competence and carefully-considered detailed programmes, meh. A potential problem on the right too.
BTW, in our electronic age, wouldn't it be good if the betting sites used cookies to steer us to the pages where we've shown interest or placed bets? Whenever I look in on Betfair, where I only place political bets, it takes me to footie and asks me what I'll bet on Wigan vs Barnsley.
BTW, in our electronic age, wouldn't it be good if the betting sites used cookies to steer us to the pages where we've shown interest or placed bets? Whenever I look in on Betfair, where I only place political bets, it tgakes me to footie and asks me what I'll bet on Wigsan vs Barnsley.
I find this too. I've never bet on 95%+ of the things betfair offers yet their website remains stubbornly uncustomsed and often hard to find the market i want.
Here's a tweet from the main guy at the office that wrote that report
@davidealgebris Mar 25 More For all our Grandparents who gave their life to build a Peacefull and open Europe, European United we stand Happy Birthday Europe #EU60
They're just mad Federalists, like you. Europe is their Catholic faith, Brexit is Reformation and Protestantism. Conceptually, it cannot succeed. It is heretical.
Ive just read that "report"
I seriously hope no-one was charged for it, it totally lacked balance, objectivity and tangible data let alone data analysis.
The trouble is some people will base important financial decisions on this guff in the genuine believe that it has intellectual merit.
BTW, in our electronic age, wouldn't it be good if the betting sites used cookies to steer us to the pages where we've shown interest or placed bets? Whenever I look in on Betfair, where I only place political bets, it takes me to footie and asks me what I'll bet on Wigan vs Barnsley.
Betfair's mobile site is shockingly unusable, almost impossible to get off their sportsbook and review your position on the exchange.
I assume most mobile bettors will want to look at the political exchange rather than take a football accumulator ?
Totally off topic but I’ve just an email from our local Neighbourhood Watch with an attachment from the Police, warning me to be aware of the danger of fake clairvoyants.
“The intention of the May government is to say ‘either we get a very good deal, or it’s the fault of the European Union because they want to punish us,’” Barley said, “Which, first of all, isn’t true. The EU and the member states were always completely clear about what a Brexit would mean. The only ones who weren’t clear about it were [May’s] Tories.”
Totally off topic but I’ve just an email from our local Neighbourhood Watch with an attachment from the Police, warning me to be aware of the danger of fake clairvoyants.
That is the lowest Le Pen has polled since goodness knows when. She has been steadily slipping over the past 2-3 weeks. There has to be a real chance that either Fillon or Melenchon get the extra few per cent needed to kick her out first round.
Comments
you have to both export and supply your domestic market. Too much of the UK BOP problem is because we have allowed our production base to decay. It;s not even in hi tech sensitive areas but HP sauce ( NL ), Bendicks mints ( D )?
https://www.facebook.com/EPPGroup/videos/10154532798547689/
I wish the Remain side had felt able to have a bit more of that sort of thing, and a bit less of the "Brexit will cost you N zillion quid". Sometimes I think we collectively are like the Bourbons, knoing the price of everything and the value of nothing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
It's possible that the recent focus on his potential has drawn attention to his programme, which even I as a born-again leftist feel is a tiny bit bonkers.
But I know you aren't going to agree, so let's not clog up the airwaves beating this to death.
Whither Scotland?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQOMxz-O7Sc&list=RDVQOMxz-O7Sc#t=0
If we get no deal then EU imports to the UK will drop. No question. Volume and value.
Also UK home grown production will rise. Probably mostly for domestic consumtion but not all. As long as it's profitable it will happen. Will affect different industries differently and at different speeds.
Initially (and perhaps ever) the UK production will not be as large as the move to alternative sources of import (as in the case of my Samsung). Not our problem but the EU's.
My key point remains - if a good is substitutable either domestically or by non-EU imports then the UK has nothing to lose. The EU does. That may not be true if there are classes of EU product that we can only get from them. Then we'll just have to absorb a tariff (if we choose to do so).
Hopefully when Trump's wall builders are finished there will be some barbed wire left over.
Scotland now in play to be taken over?
How much will they pay?
Then UK consumers will have to pay higher prices for EU products.
If they choose to substitute to other brands- then they are losing out on buying their preferred product at a previously available price.
Not sure if that's what Malmesbury is getting at though.
Ireland changed in so many ways for the better after DeValera's death, and joining the EU. It is far wealthier, less introspective, and no longer a place where the young leave and never return.
I get the similarity with Brexit.
Reshoring of manufacturing after Brexit is largely a myth. As the Jaguar CEO said, the UK market is too small to support domestic manufacturers of components and it was only being part of the single market that gave us that scale.
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-13/u-k-eyes-wall-street-access-in-post-brexit-u-s-trade-deal
Does anyone realistically believe that we are going to have tariffs on goods bought and sold between the EU and the UK? It's absurd. It's just as absurd as someone claiming their 85 yr old grandmother who is originally Spanish and has lived here for 40 years is going to get deported. Utter nonsense.
Where the real negotiations take place is around frictionless access to the single market and the maintaining of more sophisticated supply chains with the minimum of paperwork (if any).
A £300 washing machine might attract a WTO tariff of a few %. So nominally now costing around £315. But the supplier may not wish to lose share. They will inevitably absorb some of the £15 from their profit margin. Sorry Miele. Let's say that leaves Mr UK Consumer being asked for £307 by Miele. The rather nice looking Samsung in the next aisle is being deliberately aggressively priced at £275 to win share. The consumer is getting a better choice of offers now.
The big hairy point in the corner is that this is not earth shattering stuff. All producers and consumers will settle into a new free market equilibrium. Some new products will get a look in for the first time. We'll still traipse round Currys on a Sunday buying washing machines at essentially the same price as today. And we'll make a few more too. It's not the apocalypse some remainers paint.
You're right that small price increases from tariffs won't be a huge deal.
But it will be a net negative not positive for consumers.
Non tariff barriers will be more problematic but a deal can be found.
Edit - it's unlikely to be one that doesn't involve loss of sovereignty in the eyes of Brexiteers.
Zero price risk if you shop around. Probably some very good and aggressive deals being offered as the UK becomes a price war zone.
Overall positive for consumers.
Not a positive for consumers whose demand is for 'that Miele' rather than 'a really nice washing machine at a good price'.
Google effect of tariffs on consumers.
If EU companies' prices go up because of tariffs... That reduces price competition and means domestic/non EU companies can raise their prices.
"Excuse me sir, do you know what the Q stands for in LGBTIQ+? If not, you're nicked!"
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/tim-farron-says-scots-were-the-trailblazers-of-personal?utm_term=.irJKA4ywB#.dc2PJzWeZ
The phenomenon you describe would co-exist with price gouging by other suppliers.
You also omitted the Google bit saying 'more domestic companies are willing to produce the good'. That's not a tiny detail either.
Please sir, is it Quisling?
I can find US, German, Japanese, Korean, Italian, Turkish...
Emigration from Ireland - see link is consistently higher over the past few years than before 2010.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/13/european-couple-stunned-as-uk-born-children-denied-residency
Although ownership got messy long before that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotpoint
{Fake News Shield mode=up}
I bet there's more to it than that URL suggests!
Immigrants tend to go where the work is, the quickest way of stopping migration is crashing the economy and a steep rise in unemployment, for example early eighties UK. It demonstrates how incompatible the Brexit aims of prosperity and immigration control are.
She's never applied for formal residency. It wasn't needed in the 1960s and she wrongly assumed marriage was enough. She now fears that she could be deported, especially if she outlives her husband.
How many million UK residents aren't actually 'residents'?
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/04/brexit-european-union-negotiations/
https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/852501389381160960
https://twitter.com/sporf/status/852263763046797313
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/12/uk-retirees-less-willing-to-move-abroad-after-brexit-vote-poll-finds
I would be surprised if Reciprocal Healthcare arrangements survived Brexit and these are the sort of people who use up lots of NHS resource, meanwhile the EU workers in the NHS are leaving at twice the pre-Brexit rate.
Incidentally without wishing to sound all Malthusian wouldn't three be a more logical number than two? It would allow for the replacement rate being more than 2.
I was especially intrigued by the assertion that France is rejecting populist politics.
Currently, GDP per capita is about $40,000 per annum in the UK. The economic argument about Brexit turns on whether it will be $46,000 or $48,000 in 2030.
But the fact that he's eclipsed the mainstream (also quite left-wing) socialist Harmon illustrates again the problems that moderate social democracy is having all over Europe. Potential supporters want red meat, or they want Blair-style charisma. Quiet competence and carefully-considered detailed programmes, meh. A potential problem on the right too.
Macron 23.5 (up 0.5)
Le Pen 22.5(down 0.5)
Fillon 20 (up 1)
Melenchon 18.5 (up 1.5)
http://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/13042017_les_echos_radio_classique_intentions-de-vote-presidentielles.pdf
Ive just read that "report"
I seriously hope no-one was charged for it, it totally lacked balance, objectivity and tangible data let alone data analysis.
The trouble is some people will base important financial decisions on this guff in the genuine believe that it has intellectual merit.
I assume most mobile bettors will want to look at the political exchange rather than take a football accumulator
Does anyone know a real one?
Mr. G, cheers for that polling.
King Cole, fake clairvoyants always see a mug coming.
http://www.politico.eu/article/german-spd-boss-let-uk-have-a-second-brexit-referendum/
“The intention of the May government is to say ‘either we get a very good deal, or it’s the fault of the European Union because they want to punish us,’” Barley said, “Which, first of all, isn’t true. The EU and the member states were always completely clear about what a Brexit would mean. The only ones who weren’t clear about it were [May’s] Tories.”
Quite pleased with that, seeing as I never got beyond the balkans !
http://tinyurl.com/k9496fg
You'd better let the DWP know they've buggered up their form.
That is the lowest Le Pen has polled since goodness knows when. She has been steadily slipping over the past 2-3 weeks. There has to be a real chance that either Fillon or Melenchon get the extra few per cent needed to kick her out first round.