She has very little choice. FoM will survive until about 2029 even if we have full Brexit.
EU says three year transition/implementation limit so that would be 2022. That's sellable domestically to Leavers and the Tory party I'd say. 2029 is walk away territory.
By 2029 Labour could be back in power and have returned the UK to the single market
By 2029 we'll be 9 years into the Corbyn/Smith government, so they may be losing popularity by then.
Sturgeon's marketing of Scotland to California students 'The first is that if any of you are uncertain what to do after you leave Stanford, you are very welcome to come to Scotland! We offer a warm welcome and a fantastic quality of life. And our weather is much more interesting than the boring sunshine you get here in California…' https://www.snp.org/nicola_sturgeon_address_at_stanford_university_scotland_s_place_in_the_world
The Anglosphere will be blessed indeed to gain a head of government of her calibre.
LOL - anything, just anything to bash the UK post Brexit.
Things really tightening up in the French election. Latest poll from Elabe, all polling done today after TV debate:
Macron 23.5 ( down 2) Le PEN 23.5 (down 0.5) Fillon 19 (up 1) Melenchon 17 (up 2)
So on that poll at least the biggest loser is Macron and while Melenchon has gained the most Fillon is also up a point, with no more debates now before the 1st round it could get very interesting
Sturgeon's marketing of Scotland to California students 'The first is that if any of you are uncertain what to do after you leave Stanford, you are very welcome to come to Scotland! We offer a warm welcome and a fantastic quality of life. And our weather is much more interesting than the boring sunshine you get here in California…' https://www.snp.org/nicola_sturgeon_address_at_stanford_university_scotland_s_place_in_the_world
The Anglosphere will be blessed indeed to gain a head of government of her calibre.
LOL - anything, just anything to bash the UK post Brexit.
Mr Glenn’s mission is to see a federation of countries across Europe, from here to planet Zog.
Things really tightening up in the French election. Latest poll from Elabe, all polling done today after TV debate:
Macron 23.5 ( down 2) Le PEN 23.5 (down 0.5) Fillon 19 (up 1) Melenchon 17 (up 2)
So on that poll at least the biggest loser is Macron and while Melenchon has gained the most Fillon is also up a point, with no more debates now before the 1st round it could get very interesting
So it looks like after Brexit we will have FoM but we will not be in the Single Market.
You couldn't make it up.
It will be for a transition period
Just a phase we'll go through on the way to the dissolution of the UK and rejoining?
If we are still effectively in the EU until 2022 Sturgeon has no grounds to call a referendum in that period but from 2023-2025 at least we would be out of the single market and free movement ended, whether we then rejoin the single market may well depend on Labour winning in 2025
She has very little choice. FoM will survive until about 2029 even if we have full Brexit.
EU says three year transition/implementation limit so that would be 2022. That's sellable domestically to Leavers and the Tory party I'd say. 2029 is walk away territory.
By 2029 Labour could be back in power and have returned the UK to the single market
By 2029 we'll be 9 years into the Corbyn/Smith government, so they may be losing popularity by then.
By 2029 I may also be a billionaire but it is equally unlikely
She has very little choice. FoM will survive until about 2029 even if we have full Brexit.
EU says three year transition/implementation limit so that would be 2022. That's sellable domestically to Leavers and the Tory party I'd say. 2029 is walk away territory.
By 2029 Labour could be back in power and have returned the UK to the single market
And if pigs could fly, New Scotland Yard would be London's third airport....
2029 is 12 years away, anything could have happened by then including Labour finally picking an electable leader
Sturgeon's marketing of Scotland to California students 'The first is that if any of you are uncertain what to do after you leave Stanford, you are very welcome to come to Scotland! We offer a warm welcome and a fantastic quality of life. And our weather is much more interesting than the boring sunshine you get here in California…' https://www.snp.org/nicola_sturgeon_address_at_stanford_university_scotland_s_place_in_the_world
I consider persuading my wife to move from California to the UK one of my more successful (albeit expensive) negotiations
So it looks like after Brexit we will have FoM but we will not be in the Single Market.
You couldn't make it up.
It will be for a transition period
Just a phase we'll go through on the way to the dissolution of the UK and rejoining?
Mr Glenn I accept Scotland might depart the UK ( stress might, big if and all that). But Saint Nicola seems to hint at EEA not EU membership ( because hard Brexit would mean a rock hard border at Carlisle anyway but EU membership means Scotland couldn't negotiate a free trade deal with rUK a mahoosive issue she'd rather dodge) and England returning in the foreseeable future, let me spell this out slowly for you, is for the birds. Folk will dig in and stick two fingers up rather than submit.
So whatever is the final agreement, UK leaving the EU will actually take place in 2022.
UK will probably cease to have Commissioners/MEPs in 2019. The guidelines were quite clear that the transitional period would not just be an extension of membership.
Definitely cease, not probably cease. UK not member => no UK commissioners (who would appoint them?), and UK having Article 50'd in March 2017 => Brexit by March 2019 => no UK EP elections in 2019 => no UK MEPs.
I'm more than happy to believe that some may stay on as observers, but that's not the same thing.
Things really tightening up in the French election. Latest poll from Elabe, all polling done today after TV debate:
Macron 23.5 ( down 2) Le PEN 23.5 (down 0.5) Fillon 19 (up 1) Melenchon 17 (up 2)
So on that poll at least the biggest loser is Macron and while Melenchon has gained the most Fillon is also up a point, with no more debates now before the 1st round it could get very interesting
Perm any 2 from 4?
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Fillon and Melenchon at least have a chance now
She has very little choice. FoM will survive until about 2029 even if we have full Brexit.
EU says three year transition/implementation limit so that would be 2022. That's sellable domestically to Leavers and the Tory party I'd say. 2029 is walk away territory.
Lol. The only people who matter are 'Leavers' and the Tory Party. May really is a shit PM.
Thank god we have a functioning rational opposition to hold them to account.
oh.
Don't worry, the Corbynator will only cling on for another 19 years or so.
Things really tightening up in the French election. Latest poll from Elabe, all polling done today after TV debate:
Macron 23.5 ( down 2) Le PEN 23.5 (down 0.5) Fillon 19 (up 1) Melenchon 17 (up 2)
So on that poll at least the biggest loser is Macron and while Melenchon has gained the most Fillon is also up a point, with no more debates now before the 1st round it could get very interesting
Perm any 2 from 4?
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Fillon and Melenchon at least have a chance now
Who would have thought 2-3 weeks ago that we would be saying Melenchon has a chance?
She has very little choice. FoM will survive until about 2029 even if we have full Brexit.
EU says three year transition/implementation limit so that would be 2022. That's sellable domestically to Leavers and the Tory party I'd say. 2029 is walk away territory.
Lol. The only people who matter are 'Leavers' and the Tory Party. May really is a shit PM.
I take your point but in terms of getting reelected in 2020, well yes, pretty much. Cynical I agree, but she ain't going to pander to Tim Farron's national constituency is she?
Apparently not. She really is that cynical, no worries about the national interest or national unity it would seem. Two Nation Tory.
Things really tightening up in the French election. Latest poll from Elabe, all polling done today after TV debate:
Macron 23.5 ( down 2) Le PEN 23.5 (down 0.5) Fillon 19 (up 1) Melenchon 17 (up 2)
So on that poll at least the biggest loser is Macron and while Melenchon has gained the most Fillon is also up a point, with no more debates now before the 1st round it could get very interesting
Perm any 2 from 4?
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Fillon and Melenchon at least have a chance now
Who would have thought 2-3 weeks ago that we would be saying Melenchon has a chance?
Mainly because he squeezed Hamon, down to just 9% today with Elabe and 9.5% with Ifop
So it looks like after Brexit we will have FoM but we will not be in the Single Market.
You couldn't make it up.
It will be for a transition period
Just a phase we'll go through on the way to the dissolution of the UK and rejoining?
Mr Glenn I accept Scotland might depart the UK ( stress might, big if and all that). But Saint Nicola seems to hint at EEA not EU membership ( because hard Brexit would mean a rock hard border at Carlisle anyway but EU membership means Scotland couldn't negotiate a free trade deal with rUK a mahoosive issue she'd rather dodge) and England returning in the foreseeable future, let me spell this out slowly for you, is for the birds. Folk will dig in and stick two fingers up rather than submit.
A hard border on the Tweed but not on the Foyle? How do? The government has already said it wants a frictionless border with Ireland.
So it looks like after Brexit we will have FoM but we will not be in the Single Market.
You couldn't make it up.
It will be for a transition period
Just a phase we'll go through on the way to the dissolution of the UK and rejoining?
If we are still effectively in the EU until 2022 Sturgeon has no grounds to call a referendum in that period but from 2023-2025 at least we would be out of the single market and free movement ended, whether we then rejoin the single market may well depend on Labour winning in 2025
Out for a sum total of 24 months. What a fucking pointless fiasco.
So it looks like after Brexit we will have FoM but we will not be in the Single Market.
You couldn't make it up.
It will be for a transition period
Just a phase we'll go through on the way to the dissolution of the UK and rejoining?
Mr Glenn I accept Scotland might depart the UK ( stress might, big if and all that). But Saint Nicola seems to hint at EEA not EU membership ( because hard Brexit would mean a rock hard border at Carlisle anyway but EU membership means Scotland couldn't negotiate a free trade deal with rUK a mahoosive issue she'd rather dodge) and England returning in the foreseeable future, let me spell this out slowly for you, is for the birds. Folk will dig in and stick two fingers up rather than submit.
A hard border on the Tweed but not on the Foyle? How do? The government has already said it wants a frictionless border with Ireland.
She has very little choice. FoM will survive until about 2029 even if we have full Brexit.
EU says three year transition/implementation limit so that would be 2022. That's sellable domestically to Leavers and the Tory party I'd say. 2029 is walk away territory.
Lol. The only people who matter are 'Leavers' and the Tory Party. May really is a shit PM.
I take your point but in terms of getting reelected in 2020, well yes, pretty much. Cynical I agree, but she ain't going to pander to Tim Farron's national constituency is she?
Apparently not. She really is that cynical, no worries about the national interest or national unity it would seem. Two Nation Tory.
No I do accept your point (really!). Yes it is cynical, if probably necessary from her point of view right now.. However, it also depends on one's view of the national interest.
Interesting that anyone wanting to upload a music show from the radio to the internet can now do so on the Mixcloud website without breaking copyright. They've got an arrangement that pays royalties to artists. It has to be a radio show or something similar, not individual tracks.
So it looks like after Brexit we will have FoM but we will not be in the Single Market.
You couldn't make it up.
It will be for a transition period
Just a phase we'll go through on the way to the dissolution of the UK and rejoining?
Mr Glenn I accept Scotland might depart the UK ( stress might, big if and all that). But Saint Nicola seems to hint at EEA not EU membership ( because hard Brexit would mean a rock hard border at Carlisle anyway but EU membership means Scotland couldn't negotiate a free trade deal with rUK a mahoosive issue she'd rather dodge) and England returning in the foreseeable future, let me spell this out slowly for you, is for the birds. Folk will dig in and stick two fingers up rather than submit.
A hard border on the Tweed but not on the Foyle? How do? The government has already said it wants a frictionless border with Ireland.
Ian Paisley Jnr has recommended that the Republic of Ireland becomes part of Club UK, citing Ireland's trade relationships as out of synch with the EU in a post Brexit world.
Ireland will have a smaller proportion of it's trade in the EU post Brexit than the UK does upon departure.
Con 626 Lab 941 LDem 281 Plaid 571 Green 78 UKIP 77 Ind/Others 861
Note One ward had no candidates nominated at all . The election will have to be re run Several candidates elected unopposed including one UKIP candidate in Carmarthenshire
She has very little choice. FoM will survive until about 2029 even if we have full Brexit.
EU says three year transition/implementation limit so that would be 2022. That's sellable domestically to Leavers and the Tory party I'd say. 2029 is walk away territory.
Lol. The only people who matter are 'Leavers' and the Tory Party. May really is a shit PM.
I take your point but in terms of getting reelected in 2020, well yes, pretty much. Cynical I agree, but she ain't going to pander to Tim Farron's national constituency is she?
Apparently not. She really is that cynical, no worries about the national interest or national unity it would seem. Two Nation Tory.
No I do accept your point (really!). Yes it is cynical, if probably necessary from her point of view right now.. However, it also depends on one's view of the national interest.
Things really tightening up in the French election. Latest poll from Elabe, all polling done today after TV debate:
Macron 23.5 ( down 2) Le PEN 23.5 (down 0.5) Fillon 19 (up 1) Melenchon 17 (up 2)
So on that poll at least the biggest loser is Macron and while Melenchon has gained the most Fillon is also up a point, with no more debates now before the 1st round it could get very interesting
Perm any 2 from 4?
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Fillon and Melenchon at least have a chance now
Who would have thought 2-3 weeks ago that we would be saying Melenchon has a chance?
Mainly because he squeezed Hamon, down to just 9% today with Elabe and 9.5% with Ifop
Yes, if Hamon were to swallow his pride and encourage his supporters to vote Melenchon, then the left would be pretty much assured of having a runner in the final round.
Ian Paisley Jnr has recommended that the Republic of Ireland becomes part of Club UK, citing Ireland's trade relationships as out of synch with the EU in a post Brexit world.
Ireland will have a smaller proportion of it's trade in the EU post Brexit than the UK does upon departure.
Paisley Jr is clearly even madder than his father.
Ian Paisley Jnr has recommended that the Republic of Ireland becomes part of Club UK, citing Ireland's trade relationships as out of synch with the EU in a post Brexit world.
Ireland will have a smaller proportion of it's trade in the EU post Brexit than the UK does upon departure.
Let's call that argument as unlikely to find many takers, so presumably part of NI's endless air wars.
Con 626 Lab 941 LDem 281 Plaid 571 Green 78 UKIP 77 Ind/Others 861
Note One ward had no candidates nominated at all . The election will have to be re run Several candidates elected unopposed including one UKIP candidate in Carmarthenshire
Even Labour only contesting 75% of seats available.
Con 626 Lab 941 LDem 281 Plaid 571 Green 78 UKIP 77 Ind/Others 861
Note One ward had no candidates nominated at all . The election will have to be re run Several candidates elected unopposed including one UKIP candidate in Carmarthenshire
Con 626 Lab 941 LDem 281 Plaid 571 Green 78 UKIP 77 Ind/Others 861
Note One ward had no candidates nominated at all . The election will have to be re run Several candidates elected unopposed including one UKIP candidate in Carmarthenshire
I know the lds have declined in Wales, but is that number of candidates as poor as it looks?
So it looks like after Brexit we will have FoM but we will not be in the Single Market.
You couldn't make it up.
It will be for a transition period
Just a phase we'll go through on the way to the dissolution of the UK and rejoining?
If we are still effectively in the EU until 2022 Sturgeon has no grounds to call a referendum in that period but from 2023-2025 at least we would be out of the single market and free movement ended, whether we then rejoin the single market may well depend on Labour winning in 2025
Out for a sum total of 24 months. What a fucking pointless fiasco.
Still probably out of the EU even if we do rejoin the single market
Things really tightening up in the French election. Latest poll from Elabe, all polling done today after TV debate:
Macron 23.5 ( down 2) Le PEN 23.5 (down 0.5) Fillon 19 (up 1) Melenchon 17 (up 2)
So on that poll at least the biggest loser is Macron and while Melenchon has gained the most Fillon is also up a point, with no more debates now before the 1st round it could get very interesting
Perm any 2 from 4?
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Fillon and Melenchon at least have a chance now
Who would have thought 2-3 weeks ago that we would be saying Melenchon has a chance?
Mainly because he squeezed Hamon, down to just 9% today with Elabe and 9.5% with Ifop
Yes, if Hamon were to swallow his pride and encourage his supporters to vote Melenchon, then the left would be pretty much assured of having a runner in the final round.
There is no way the Socialist Party will not have its official candidate in the first round
Ian Paisley Jnr has recommended that the Republic of Ireland becomes part of Club UK, citing Ireland's trade relationships as out of synch with the EU in a post Brexit world.
Ireland will have a smaller proportion of it's trade in the EU post Brexit than the UK does upon departure.
So it looks like after Brexit we will have FoM but we will not be in the Single Market.
You couldn't make it up.
It will be for a transition period
Just a phase we'll go through on the way to the dissolution of the UK and rejoining?
If we are still effectively in the EU until 2022 Sturgeon has no grounds to call a referendum in that period but from 2023-2025 at least we would be out of the single market and free movement ended, whether we then rejoin the single market may well depend on Labour winning in 2025
Out for a sum total of 24 months. What a fucking pointless fiasco.
Where do you get 24 months from? 2025 would be the date of the next election not a date for us to.rejoin. The odds of a party pledging to rejoin winning the first vote after we leave must be very slim (from sheer pigheaded stubbornness If nothing else). But even if in May 2025 saw a landslide victory for the Lib Dems on a rejoin manifesto it would take time for us to negotiate re-entry. We would also likely see a repeat of De Gaulle and see a member veto us rejoining as they'd be fed up with us.
I have a betting question (I know: extraordinary). I find to my pleasure that there is a betting market on the winner of the first-round[1] of France17. I may place a bet on this, but there is a problem. Regular readers will remember that I don't bet online, but walk into a betting shop Like Wot God Intended. Problem is, politicalbetting is still obscure and I don't want the blokie behind the counter to misunderstand me and place a bet on the second-round winner instead. Are there online instructions on how to fill out a (say) Ladbrokes betting slip?
Con 626 Lab 941 LDem 281 Plaid 571 Green 78 UKIP 77 Ind/Others 861
Note One ward had no candidates nominated at all . The election will have to be re run Several candidates elected unopposed including one UKIP candidate in Carmarthenshire
I know the lds have declined in Wales, but is that number of candidates as poor as it looks?
I don't have the figures to hand , but I think the LD numbers are up compared to 2012
Con 626 Lab 941 LDem 281 Plaid 571 Green 78 UKIP 77 Ind/Others 861
Note One ward had no candidates nominated at all . The election will have to be re run Several candidates elected unopposed including one UKIP candidate in Carmarthenshire
OMG, which ward had no one nominated?
Yscir ward in Powys .
Scrub my comment re UKIP elected unopposed , that is an error , he was on Page 2 of the nomination form
I have a betting question (I know: extraordinary). I find to my pleasure that there is a betting market on the winner of the first-round[1] of France17. I may place a bet on this, but there is a problem. Regular readers will remember that I don't bet online, but walk into a betting shop Like Wot God Intended. Problem is, politicalbetting is still obscure and I don't want the blokie behind the counter to misunderstand me and place a bet on the second-round winner instead. Are there online instructions on how to fill out a (say) Ladbrokes betting slip?
Make sure you write "first round vote winner" on the slip. Ask for the price, and make sure the price given is from the right market. (So before you set out, check the online price for both the right and wrong markets.)
I have a betting question (I know: extraordinary). I find to my pleasure that there is a betting market on the winner of the first-round[1] of France17. I may place a bet on this, but there is a problem. Regular readers will remember that I don't bet online, but walk into a betting shop Like Wot God Intended. Problem is, politicalbetting is still obscure and I don't want the blokie behind the counter to misunderstand me and place a bet on the second-round winner instead. Are there online instructions on how to fill out a (say) Ladbrokes betting slip?
Make sure you write "first round vote winner" on the slip. Ask for the price, and make sure the price given is from the right market. (So before you set out, check the online price for both the right and wrong markets.)
Thank you. Is there some kind of numeric code, or is it literally as simple as writing "FIRST ROUND VOTE WINNER" on the slip?
Master's favourite Dustin "so dense light bends around him and mysteriously makes himself unavailable for 6 months at a time" Johnson has fallen down the stairs and big doubt for the tournament.
Things really tightening up in the French election. Latest poll from Elabe, all polling done today after TV debate:
Macron 23.5 ( down 2) Le PEN 23.5 (down 0.5) Fillon 19 (up 1) Melenchon 17 (up 2)
So on that poll at least the biggest loser is Macron and while Melenchon has gained the most Fillon is also up a point, with no more debates now before the 1st round it could get very interesting
Perm any 2 from 4?
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Fillon and Melenchon at least have a chance now
Who would have thought 2-3 weeks ago that we would be saying Melenchon has a chance?
Mainly because he squeezed Hamon, down to just 9% today with Elabe and 9.5% with Ifop
Yes, if Hamon were to swallow his pride and encourage his supporters to vote Melenchon, then the left would be pretty much assured of having a runner in the final round.
There is no way the Socialist Party will not have its official candidate in the first round
Hamon could theoretically pull out 2 days or so before the vote, saying it is clear that he can't win. His name would still be on paper but he would actively throw his support behind Melenchon and the remainder of the PS machine would be powerless at that point to stop him.
I have a betting question (I know: extraordinary). I find to my pleasure that there is a betting market on the winner of the first-round[1] of France17. I may place a bet on this, but there is a problem. Regular readers will remember that I don't bet online, but walk into a betting shop Like Wot God Intended. Problem is, politicalbetting is still obscure and I don't want the blokie behind the counter to misunderstand me and place a bet on the second-round winner instead. Are there online instructions on how to fill out a (say) Ladbrokes betting slip?
Make sure you write "first round vote winner" on the slip. Ask for the price, and make sure the price given is from the right market. (So before you set out, check the online price for both the right and wrong markets.)
Thank you. Is there some kind of numeric code, or is it literally as simple as writing "FIRST ROUND VOTE WINNER" on the slip?
Add French Presidential election or some such as well. I just took the wording from the online market. The main thing is to check the price is right because that will tell you if they've got the right market. Since a lot of betting shop staff are not properly trained any more (they are basically just there to look after the FOBTs) you might need to guide them to the right screen to find the price.
I suppose the question is, would this deter people from using private schools and thus put more pressure on the state sector? Or is it the case that a lot of these kids are from overseas so there isn't too much to worry about? Or could the schools go nuclear and leave the country?
I suppose the question is, would this deter people from using private schools and thus put more pressure on the state sector? Or is it the case that a lot of these kids are from overseas so there isn't too much to worry about? Or could the schools go nuclear and leave the country?
The elite ones will be fine, they will just take more overseas kids. I think a proportion of lesser private schools would go under. Both would result even more British kids in state schools.
Also, I don't think Gove was proposing it would fund free school meals for all.
I will be interested to see if VAT on private school fees even touches the sides of trying to run a free school meals for all programme. Clegg had the idea for infants, but it soon became clear very expensive and lots of schools can't cope without having to do loads of building work to expand kitchen capacity.
I personally don't think in theory feeding all kids at school is a bad thing, but it ain't cheap.
So it looks like after Brexit we will have FoM but we will not be in the Single Market.
You couldn't make it up.
It will be for a transition period
Just a phase we'll go through on the way to the dissolution of the UK and rejoining?
If we are still effectively in the EU until 2022 Sturgeon has no grounds to call a referendum in that period but from 2023-2025 at least we would be out of the single market and free movement ended, whether we then rejoin the single market may well depend on Labour winning in 2025
Out for a sum total of 24 months. What a fucking pointless fiasco.
Where do you get 24 months from? 2025 would be the date of the next election not a date for us to.rejoin. The odds of a party pledging to rejoin winning the first vote after we leave must be very slim (from sheer pigheaded stubbornness If nothing else). But even if in May 2025 saw a landslide victory for the Lib Dems on a rejoin manifesto it would take time for us to negotiate re-entry. We would also likely see a repeat of De Gaulle and see a member veto us rejoining as they'd be fed up with us.
Rejoining the EU is a non-starter. However if an EEA type transitional arrangement is in force in 2020 then there is a wide open space for a party to advocate rejoining EFTA and preserving single market membership.
Trump has been off the radar for a while. Looks like his tone is changing on Syria. I'm wondering if he is starting to get 'institutionalised' by Washington. We've seen a lot less controversy recently. Looks like Bannon has suffered some sort of demotion/rejection too. May be that the establishment wing of the GOP is winning Trump round.
With the travel ban, the Putin reset, and trumpcare all DOA, could be the mexican wall will be his only significant policy to make progress this year.
Things really tightening up in the French election. Latest poll from Elabe, all polling done today after TV debate:
Macron 23.5 ( down 2) Le PEN 23.5 (down 0.5) Fillon 19 (up 1) Melenchon 17 (up 2)
So on that poll at least the biggest loser is Macron and while Melenchon has gained the most Fillon is also up a point, with no more debates now before the 1st round it could get very interesting
Perm any 2 from 4?
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Fillon and Melenchon at least have a chance now
Who would have thought 2-3 weeks ago that we would be saying Melenchon has a chance?
Mainly because he squeezed Hamon, down to just 9% today with Elabe and 9.5% with Ifop
Yes, if Hamon were to swallow his pride and encourage his supporters to vote Melenchon, then the left would be pretty much assured of having a runner in the final round.
There is no way the Socialist Party will not have its official candidate in the first round
Hamon could theoretically pull out 2 days or so before the vote, saying it is clear that he can't win. His name would still be on paper but he would actively throw his support behind Melenchon and the remainder of the PS machine would be powerless at that point to stop him.
I doubt he will support Melenchon, he could equally support Macron, more likely he stays in then throws his support to Macron once he is knocked out and it goes to the runoff
Things really tightening up in the French election. Latest poll from Elabe, all polling done today after TV debate:
Macron 23.5 ( down 2) Le PEN 23.5 (down 0.5) Fillon 19 (up 1) Melenchon 17 (up 2)
So on that poll at least the biggest loser is Macron and while Melenchon has gained the most Fillon is also up a point, with no more debates now before the 1st round it could get very interesting
Perm any 2 from 4?
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Fillon and Melenchon at least have a chance now
Who would have thought 2-3 weeks ago that we would be saying Melenchon has a chance?
Mainly because he squeezed Hamon, down to just 9% today with Elabe and 9.5% with Ifop
Yes, if Hamon were to swallow his pride and encourage his supporters to vote Melenchon, then the left would be pretty much assured of having a runner in the final round.
There is no way the Socialist Party will not have its official candidate in the first round
Hamon could theoretically pull out 2 days or so before the vote, saying it is clear that he can't win. His name would still be on paper but he would actively throw his support behind Melenchon and the remainder of the PS machine would be powerless at that point to stop him.
And I guess he might just do it to spite Valls and others in the Socialist Party, who switched their support to Macron. Would be sweet revenge on them to knock out Macron.
Things really tightening up in the French election. Latest poll from Elabe, all polling done today after TV debate:
Macron 23.5 ( down 2) Le PEN 23.5 (down 0.5) Fillon 19 (up 1) Melenchon 17 (up 2)
So on that poll at least the biggest loser is Macron and while Melenchon has gained the most Fillon is also up a point, with no more debates now before the 1st round it could get very interesting
Perm any 2 from 4?
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Fillon and Melenchon at least have a chance now
IIRC it took a few days for Mélenchon to start rising after the first debate, so who knows what polls will say by the end of this week? The story about confidential police documents being found at NF HQ could damage Le Pen a lot: it could scare people.
I have a betting question (I know: extraordinary). I find to my pleasure that there is a betting market on the winner of the first-round[1] of France17. I may place a bet on this, but there is a problem. Regular readers will remember that I don't bet online, but walk into a betting shop Like Wot God Intended. Problem is, politicalbetting is still obscure and I don't want the blokie behind the counter to misunderstand me and place a bet on the second-round winner instead. Are there online instructions on how to fill out a (say) Ladbrokes betting slip?
Make sure you write "first round vote winner" on the slip. Ask for the price, and make sure the price given is from the right market. (So before you set out, check the online price for both the right and wrong markets.)
Thank you. Is there some kind of numeric code, or is it literally as simple as writing "FIRST ROUND VOTE WINNER" on the slip?
Add French Presidential election or some such as well. I just took the wording from the online market. The main thing is to check the price is right because that will tell you if they've got the right market. Since a lot of betting shop staff are not properly trained any more (they are basically just there to look after the FOBTs) you might need to guide them to the right screen to find the price.
I suppose the question is, would this deter people from using private schools and thus put more pressure on the state sector? Or is it the case that a lot of these kids are from overseas so there isn't too much to worry about? Or could the schools go nuclear and leave the country?
The elite ones will be fine, they will just take more overseas kids.
Labour has made various proposals regarding private schools since 1945. This won't happen. The elite in this country don't tolerate what they don't want to tolerate.
She has very little choice. FoM will survive until about 2029 even if we have full Brexit.
EU says three year transition/implementation limit so that would be 2022. That's sellable domestically to Leavers and the Tory party I'd say. 2029 is walk away territory.
Lol. The only people who matter are 'Leavers' and the Tory Party. May really is a shit PM.
Thank god we have a functioning rational opposition to hold them to account.
oh.
Don't worry, the Corbynator will only cling on for another 19 years or so.
The country needs a credible opposition - look what happened to both the tories and labour when they could run riot.
Things really tightening up in the French election. Latest poll from Elabe, all polling done today after TV debate:
Macron 23.5 ( down 2) Le PEN 23.5 (down 0.5) Fillon 19 (up 1) Melenchon 17 (up 2)
So on that poll at least the biggest loser is Macron and while Melenchon has gained the most Fillon is also up a point, with no more debates now before the 1st round it could get very interesting
Perm any 2 from 4?
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Fillon and Melenchon at least have a chance now
Who would have thought 2-3 weeks ago that we would be saying Melenchon has a chance?
Mainly because he squeezed Hamon, down to just 9% today with Elabe and 9.5% with Ifop
Yes, if Hamon were to swallow his pride and encourage his supporters to vote Melenchon, then the left would be pretty much assured of having a runner in the final round.
There is no way the Socialist Party will not have its official candidate in the first round
Hamon could theoretically pull out 2 days or so before the vote, saying it is clear that he can't win. His name would still be on paper but he would actively throw his support behind Melenchon and the remainder of the PS machine would be powerless at that point to stop him.
I doubt he will support Melenchon, he could equally support Macron, more likely he stays in then throws his support to Macron once he is knocked out and it goes to the runoff
More than 50% of French voters favour Hamon withdrawing in support of Melenchon. And yes I know it's a Russian site, but it quotes a Harris poll.
Things really tightening up in the French election. Latest poll from Elabe, all polling done today after TV debate:
Macron 23.5 ( down 2) Le PEN 23.5 (down 0.5) Fillon 19 (up 1) Melenchon 17 (up 2)
So on that poll at least the biggest loser is Macron and while Melenchon has gained the most Fillon is also up a point, with no more debates now before the 1st round it could get very interesting
Perm any 2 from 4?
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Fillon and Melenchon at least have a chance now
Who would have thought 2-3 weeks ago that we would be saying Melenchon has a chance?
Mainly because he squeezed Hamon, down to just 9% today with Elabe and 9.5% with Ifop
Yes, if Hamon were to swallow his pride and encourage his supporters to vote Melenchon, then the left would be pretty much assured of having a runner in the final round.
There is no way the Socialist Party will not have its official candidate in the first round
Hamon could theoretically pull out 2 days or so before the vote, saying it is clear that he can't win. His name would still be on paper but he would actively throw his support behind Melenchon and the remainder of the PS machine would be powerless at that point to stop him.
I doubt he will support Melenchon, he could equally support Macron, more likely he stays in then throws his support to Macron once he is knocked out and it goes to the runoff
More than 50% of French voters favour Hamon withdrawing in support of Melenchon. And yes I know it's a Russian site, but it quotes a Harris poll.
Ignore voodoo Russian polls and Melenchon would be an utter disaster for France economically, he wants to cut the working week to 32 hours and lower the retirement age even Le Pen might be given a second glance by some of the middle classes if she faced him in the runoff
Things really tightening up in the French election. Latest poll from Elabe, all polling done today after TV debate:
Macron 23.5 ( down 2) Le PEN 23.5 (down 0.5) Fillon 19 (up 1) Melenchon 17 (up 2)
So on that poll at least the biggest loser is Macron and while Melenchon has gained the most Fillon is also up a point, with no more debates now before the 1st round it could get very interesting
Perm any 2 from 4?
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Fillon and Melenchon at least have a chance now
Who would have thought 2-3 weeks ago that we would be saying Melenchon has a chance?
Mainly because he squeezed Hamon, down to just 9% today with Elabe and 9.5% with Ifop
Yes, if Hamon were to swallow his pride and encourage his supporters to vote Melenchon, then the left would be pretty much assured of having a runner in the final round.
There is no way the Socialist Party will not have its official candidate in the first round
Hamon could theoretically pull out 2 days or so before the vote, saying it is clear that he can't win. His name would still be on paper but he would actively throw his support behind Melenchon and the remainder of the PS machine would be powerless at that point to stop him.
I doubt he will support Melenchon, he could equally support Macron, more likely he stays in then throws his support to Macron once he is knocked out and it goes to the runoff
More than 50% of French voters favour Hamon withdrawing in support of Melenchon. And yes I know it's a Russian site, but it quotes a Harris poll.
Ignore voodoo Russian polls and Melenchon would be an utter disaster for France economically, he wants to cut the working week to 32 hours and lower the retirement age even Le Pen might be given a second glance by some of the middle classes if she faced him in the runoff
Things really tightening up in the French election. Latest poll from Elabe, all polling done today after TV debate:
Macron 23.5 ( down 2) Le PEN 23.5 (down 0.5) Fillon 19 (up 1) Melenchon 17 (up 2)
So on that poll at least the biggest loser is Macron and while Melenchon has gained the most Fillon is also up a point, with no more debates now before the 1st round it could get very interesting
Perm any 2 from 4?
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Fillon and Melenchon at least have a chance now
IIRC it took a few days for Mélenchon to start rising after the first debate, so who knows what polls will say by the end of this week? The story about confidential police documents being found at NF HQ could damage Le Pen a lot: it could scare people.
Even French news is not reporting this NF police documents 'story' at all and it won't bother her supporters one bit as they think the establishment is against her anyway http://www.lci.fr/
Things really tightening up in the French election. Latest poll from Elabe, all polling done today after TV debate:
Macron 23.5 ( down 2) Le PEN 23.5 (down 0.5) Fillon 19 (up 1) Melenchon 17 (up 2)
So on that poll at least the biggest loser is Macron and while Melenchon has gained the most Fillon is also up a point, with no more debates now before the 1st round it could get very interesting
Perm any 2 from 4?
Still looks like a Macron v Le Pen runoff but Fillon and Melenchon at least have a chance now
IIRC it took a few days for Mélenchon to start rising after the first debate, so who knows what polls will say by the end of this week? The story about confidential police documents being found at NF HQ could damage Le Pen a lot: it could scare people.
The Elabe poll was taken entirely post debate and Melenchon still 4th
Am I missing something, why are you linking to Bayes Theorem?
A random thought. We have a poll lead and we want to find the probability of a win given a poll lead. Let's call that P(W|L). From the above we know that
P(W|L) = P(L|W).P(W)/P(L) where
P(L|W) = probabilty of a win given a poll lead P(W) = probability of a win P(L) = probabilty of a lead
For the French election,
P(Socialist will win|Socialist lead) = P(Socialist lead|Socialist will win).P(Socialist will win)/P(Socialist lead)
If I can work out the latter three terms, I can derive the first
Am I missing something, why are you linking to Bayes Theorem?
A random thought. We have a poll lead and we want to find the probability of a win given a poll lead. Let's call that P(W|L). From the above we know that
P(W|L) = P(L|W).P(W)/P(L) where
P(L|W) = probabilty of a win given a poll lead P(W) = probability of a win P(L) = probabilty of a lead
For the French election,
P(Socialist will win|Socialist lead) = P(Socialist lead|Socialist will win).P(Socialist will win)/P(Socialist lead)
If I can work out the latter three terms, I can derive the first
Sorry, just thinking out loud...
If you've worked out the second of the three latter terms you should be heading straight to Betfair.
The first purely post-debate French poll shows both leading candidates down slightly, presumably as the minor candidates got more exposure: both on 23.5% (Macron -1, Le Pen -1.5). Melanchon up again to 17, just behind Fillon on 19. The ultra-far left Poutou, who the Guardian reported as the star of the debate for aggressively attacking alleged corruption by other candidates, is up to 1.5%.
But it's hard to see the race as tight. The second-round figures are Macron 62, Le Pen 38, and there is no serious reason to expect that they won't be the second round candidates - the ratings still seem too stable for the swing required.
O/T - it's interesting to watch the Mauritius Parliament at work. The procedures are modelled on Westminster, to the extent that MPs actually cite Erskine Mayu when pressing points of order. The sessions are slightly rougher than Westminster and the Speaker seems less confident than our Speakers and struggles to keep order at times. Overall, though, the similarities are much stronger than the differences.
Another French tidbit - a planned final 11-candidate debate 3 days before the election now looks as though it will be a series of interviews with each. This more low-key approach is designed to try avoid a candidate getting a trivial advantage through a thetorical flourish. Hamon, who needs something dramatic to happen most of the major candidates, is the only one to object to the change.
Speaking as a socialist, I don't see that Hamon has objectively much to lose by withdrawing in favour of somebody. If he keeps going he will clearly be fifth, which is just embarrassing for him and his party. If he endorses either Macron or Melanchon, he can claim a share in the good result.
But speaking as a former MP/candidate whoi's talked to other candidates about withdrawing, I know it's remarkably difficult to withdraw. People have been knocking themselves out for you for months, lots of your supporters will dislike whoever you endorse, and the sense of betrayal will be strong. I think he'll stick it out, and then endorse the non-Le Pen finalist.
Le Pen does seem to be weakening slowly if the polls are correct. Her score in the post-debate poll for "most convincing candidate" was only 18%. Fillon's resilience is interesting - he's down a bit but 18% or so of the electorate are still sticking by him despite an avalanche of bad news. Presumably the mainstream conservative vote who find Le Pen too extreme/vulgar and Melanchon too liberal/wet.
Trump has been off the radar for a while. Looks like his tone is changing on Syria. I'm wondering if he is starting to get 'institutionalised' by Washington. We've seen a lot less controversy recently. Looks like Bannon has suffered some sort of demotion/rejection too. May be that the establishment wing of the GOP is winning Trump round.
With the travel ban, the Putin reset, and trumpcare all DOA, could be the mexican wall will be his only significant policy to make progress this year.
Jumping to conclusions regarding the latest incident in Syria may be unwise. See Peter Hitchens' latest article entitled "It's WMD all over again. Why don't you see it?" at http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
He concludes by stating: "Two points occur. One, the western powers , by consorting with such people [the despotic and aggressive (ask a Yemeni) Saudi Regime and Egypt’s tyrant General Sisi of Egypt] , demonstrate that their exaggerated disgust at the Assad government is selective and unreal. Two, they demonstrate that our continuing desire to be on good terms with Saudi Arabia lies beneath our whole foreign policy in this region. And which state loathes President Assad more than anyone? Why, Wahhabi Saudi Arabia, which despises Assad for his Alawite heresy, and hates him for his alliance with Shia Iran."
Trump has been off the radar for a while. Looks like his tone is changing on Syria. I'm wondering if he is starting to get 'institutionalised' by Washington. We've seen a lot less controversy recently. Looks like Bannon has suffered some sort of demotion/rejection too. May be that the establishment wing of the GOP is winning Trump round.
With the travel ban, the Putin reset, and trumpcare all DOA, could be the mexican wall will be his only significant policy to make progress this year.
Jumping to conclusions regarding the latest incident in Syria may be unwise. See Peter Hitchens' latest article entitled "It's WMD all over again. Why don't you see it?" at http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
He concludes by stating: "Two points occur. One, the western powers , by consorting with such people [the despotic and aggressive (ask a Yemeni) Saudi Regime and Egypt’s tyrant General Sisi of Egypt] , demonstrate that their exaggerated disgust at the Assad government is selective and unreal. Two, they demonstrate that our continuing desire to be on good terms with Saudi Arabia lies beneath our whole foreign policy in this region. And which state loathes President Assad more than anyone? Why, Wahhabi Saudi Arabia, which despises Assad for his Alawite heresy, and hates him for his alliance with Shia Iran."
Hitchens is almost always wrong though.
And it's impossible to politically satisfy the guy.
The problem the EU faces is that their usual stance on trade is protectionism for heavy plant, automotive and food production. These are all areas where they turn very substantial trade surpluses with the UK, so barriers become acts of self-harm.
There can be no doubt that the UK must reciprocate in kind if they attempt punishment, cherry picking or having their cake and eating it.
We have to formulate our WTO reaction plan to deal with any breakdown in the conversation, and I would guess a transition that will last no more than one year. The government will need the EU wrapped up before the dissolution of Parliament in April 2020.
The government essentially has three pots of money, worth £13-£14bn each, £40bn or so in total per annum, to fund a reaction plan.
These are WTO tariff income (Civitas estimate), overseas aid and the UK's gross contribution to the EU.
It seems feasible that the government finances will be in balance by the time we reach Brexit.
The problem the EU faces is that their usual stance on trade is protectionism for heavy plant, automotive and food production. These are all areas where they turn very substantial trade surpluses with the UK, so barriers become acts of self-harm.
There can be no doubt that the UK must reciprocate in kind if they attempt punishment, cherry picking or having their cake and eating it.
We have to formulate our WTO reaction plan to deal with any breakdown in the conversation, and I would guess a transition that will last no more than one year. The government will need the EU wrapped up before the dissolution of Parliament in April 2020.
The government essentially has three pots of money, worth £13-£14bn each, £40bn or so in total per annum, to fund a reaction plan.
These are WTO tariff income (Civitas estimate), overseas aid and the UK's gross contribution to the EU.
It seems feasible that the government finances will be in balance by the time we reach Brexit.
The size of the pot will depend on the growth we achieve.
I often agree with you but you have a real blind spot when it comes to Nicola. She is class above the rest of the comics we have 'leading' our parties nowadays.
Nicola’s speech is fine words. But, like all politicians, her principles are negotiable.
From her speech, she brags about Scotland’s commitment to climate changes.
"Another area Scotland prioritises is tackling climate change.
In 2012 Scotland became the first country to establish a Climate Justice Fund for developing countries. It recognises that the people affected most by climate change are often those who have done the least to cause it.
And in addition to helping countries to mitigate climate change, we also want to be at the forefront of tackling it.”
Fine words, indeed.
But, when it comes to Scotland’s airports, what is her Government doing. Her Government is proposing to reduce green taxes.
The Air Departure Tax (Scotland) Bill, published by her government in December, proposes to reduce aviation tax by 50% by the end of the current parliament, with the levy eventually abolished "when finances allow”.
This hardly squares with being in the forefront of tackling climate change.
The SNP attitude is "can we get grants out of that?"
Tackling climate change is cock anyway.
I can think of a few, and you are near the top of the list.
She has very little choice. FoM will survive until about 2029 even if we have full Brexit.
EU says three year transition/implementation limit so that would be 2022. That's sellable domestically to Leavers and the Tory party I'd say. 2029 is walk away territory.
Lol. The only people who matter are 'Leavers' and the Tory Party. May really is a shit PM.
Thank god we have a functioning rational opposition to hold them to account.
oh.
Don't worry, the Corbynator will only cling on for another 19 years or so.
The country needs a credible opposition - look what happened to both the tories and labour when they could run riot.
With cabinet ministers feeling free to say that the UK shares values with Duterte's Philippines the need for a credible has never been greater.
Reckless isn’t a consituency AM, is he. He’s a list AM, elected specifically as a UKIP rep. Surely if he resigns from UKIP, he should leave the Assembly and be replaced by the next Kipper on the list.
Comments
Macron 23.5 ( down 2)
Le PEN 23.5 (down 0.5)
Fillon 19 (up 1)
Melenchon 17 (up 2)
NO to the TPD!
I'm more than happy to believe that some may stay on as observers, but that's not the same thing.
There can be no cherry picking though. And they are about to learn that.
Anyway sleep calls.
Interesting that anyone wanting to upload a music show from the radio to the internet can now do so on the Mixcloud website without breaking copyright. They've got an arrangement that pays royalties to artists. It has to be a radio show or something similar, not individual tracks.
https://www.ft.com/content/3aba4512-71ab-11e5-9b9e-690fdae72044
Actually, you are right, it is likely.
Ireland will have a smaller proportion of it's trade in the EU post Brexit than the UK does upon departure.
Con 626
Lab 941
LDem 281
Plaid 571
Green 78
UKIP 77
Ind/Others 861
Note One ward had no candidates nominated at all . The election will have to be re run
Several candidates elected unopposed including one UKIP candidate in Carmarthenshire
Night all.
[1] https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/first-round-vote-winner
Scrub my comment re UKIP elected unopposed , that is an error , he was on Page 2 of the nomination form
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4384328/Tony-Blair-says-social-media-killed-career.html
So 1% increase in NI for middle class self employed bad, 20% on school fees for middle class good...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/golf/2017/04/05/dustin-johnson-masters-doubt-injuring-back-serious-fall/
http://tinyurl.com/mhpre7v
I suppose the question is, would this deter people from using private schools and thus put more pressure on the state sector? Or is it the case that a lot of these kids are from overseas so there isn't too much to worry about? Or could the schools go nuclear and leave the country?
Also, I don't think Gove was proposing it would fund free school meals for all.
I will be interested to see if VAT on private school fees even touches the sides of trying to run a free school meals for all programme. Clegg had the idea for infants, but it soon became clear very expensive and lots of schools can't cope without having to do loads of building work to expand kitchen capacity.
I personally don't think in theory feeding all kids at school is a bad thing, but it ain't cheap.
Trump has been off the radar for a while. Looks like his tone is changing on Syria. I'm wondering if he is starting to get 'institutionalised' by Washington. We've seen a lot less controversy recently. Looks like Bannon has suffered some sort of demotion/rejection too. May be that the establishment wing of the GOP is winning Trump round.
With the travel ban, the Putin reset, and trumpcare all DOA, could be the mexican wall will be his only significant policy to make progress this year.
https://sputniknews.com/europe/201703301052112900-france-presidential-election-hamon/
http://www.lci.fr/
Bayes' Theorem: Enjoy
P(H|E) = P(E|H).P(H)/P(E)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R13BD8qKeTg
That is 10k+ per episode.
Quite some achievement, guys. Well done for keeping on keeping on.
https://kpedley.podbean.com/e/polling-matters-ep-96-local-elections-and-what-will-voters-compromise-on-brexit/
P(W|L) = P(L|W).P(W)/P(L) where
P(L|W) = probabilty of a win given a poll lead
P(W) = probability of a win
P(L) = probabilty of a lead
For the French election,
P(Socialist will win|Socialist lead) = P(Socialist lead|Socialist will win).P(Socialist will win)/P(Socialist lead)
If I can work out the latter three terms, I can derive the first
Sorry, just thinking out loud...
But it's hard to see the race as tight. The second-round figures are Macron 62, Le Pen 38, and there is no serious reason to expect that they won't be the second round candidates - the ratings still seem too stable for the swing required.
O/T - it's interesting to watch the Mauritius Parliament at work. The procedures are modelled on Westminster, to the extent that MPs actually cite Erskine Mayu when pressing points of order. The sessions are slightly rougher than Westminster and the Speaker seems less confident than our Speakers and struggles to keep order at times. Overall, though, the similarities are much stronger than the differences.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/2017/04/05/25001-20170405ARTFIG00248-presidentielle-france-2-abandonne-le-second-debat-entre-les-onze-candidats.php
But speaking as a former MP/candidate whoi's talked to other candidates about withdrawing, I know it's remarkably difficult to withdraw. People have been knocking themselves out for you for months, lots of your supporters will dislike whoever you endorse, and the sense of betrayal will be strong. I think he'll stick it out, and then endorse the non-Le Pen finalist.
Le Pen does seem to be weakening slowly if the polls are correct. Her score in the post-debate poll for "most convincing candidate" was only 18%. Fillon's resilience is interesting - he's down a bit but 18% or so of the electorate are still sticking by him despite an avalanche of bad news. Presumably the mainstream conservative vote who find Le Pen too extreme/vulgar and Melanchon too liberal/wet.
http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1865298170&Country=United Kingdom&topic=Politics&subtopic=Forecast&subsubtopic=International+relations
He concludes by stating:
"Two points occur. One, the western powers , by consorting with such people [the despotic and aggressive (ask a Yemeni) Saudi Regime and Egypt’s tyrant General Sisi of Egypt] , demonstrate that their exaggerated disgust at the Assad government is selective and unreal. Two, they demonstrate that our continuing desire to be on good terms with Saudi Arabia lies beneath our whole foreign policy in this region. And which state loathes President Assad more than anyone? Why, Wahhabi Saudi Arabia, which despises Assad for his Alawite heresy, and hates him for his alliance with Shia Iran."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39506346
And it's impossible to politically satisfy the guy.
The problem the EU faces is that their usual stance on trade is protectionism for heavy plant, automotive and food production. These are all areas where they turn very substantial trade surpluses with the UK, so barriers become acts of self-harm.
There can be no doubt that the UK must reciprocate in kind if they attempt punishment, cherry picking or having their cake and eating it.
We have to formulate our WTO reaction plan to deal with any breakdown in the conversation, and I would guess a transition that will last no more than one year. The government will need the EU wrapped up before the dissolution of Parliament in April 2020.
The government essentially has three pots of money, worth £13-£14bn each, £40bn or so in total per annum, to fund a reaction plan.
These are WTO tariff income (Civitas estimate), overseas aid and the UK's gross contribution to the EU.
It seems feasible that the government finances will be in balance by the time we reach Brexit.
Blairites have failed, Brownites have failed, the Potemkin Princes have failed and now Corbyn's extremists have failed.
Perhaps they should give the EUsceptics a go:
Ronnie Campbell
John Cryer
Frank Field
Roger Godsiff
Kate Hooey
Kelvin Hopkins
John Mann
Dennis Skinner
Graham Stringer
Gisela Stuart
You never know, Labour might even get back in touch with working class voters.
I wonder if UKIP will be like the Spartans winning the Peloponnesian War and being destroyed not by adversity, but prosperity.
George GallowayVerified account
@georgegalloway
I have studied @jeremycorbyn attack on Ken today & his reference back to the NEC for a new witch- hunt against him. For me, this is the end.