Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Multiplier Effect: Regional, Social and Brexit swing make

245

Comments

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    kle4 said:

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    My understanding was that land was leased to us, not permanent?

    It's a difficult question either way and I'll sidestep as I don't know about that one, including what the locals wanted.
    Hong Kong island was sovereign territory of the UK. Most of the surrounding land was leased.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    kle4 said:

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    My understanding was that land was leased to us, not permanent?

    It's a difficult question either way and I'll sidestep as I don't know enough about that one, including what the locals wanted. At the least the Gibraltar situation is hundreds of years older, which regrettably has to be a factor. Someone was saying yesterday that it was moorish as long as it was Spanish, which further undermines the idea Spain must be the more appropriate state if true.
    The New Territories only. Hong Kong Island and Kowloon were permanent British territories.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    kle4 said:

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    My understanding was that land was leased to us, not permanent?

    It's a difficult question either way and I'll sidestep as I don't know about that one, including what the locals wanted.
    The New Territories were leased for 99 years from 1st July 1898, but HK island and a small part of Kowloon were British sovereign territory.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    kle4 said:

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    My understanding was that land was leased to us, not permanent?

    It's a difficult question either way and I'll sidestep as I don't know enough about that one, including what the locals wanted. At the least the Gibraltar situation is hundreds of years older, which regrettably has to be a factor. Someone was saying yesterday that it was moorish as long as it was Spanish, which further undermines the idea Spain must be the more appropriate state if true.
    The mainland was leased, Victoria Island was permanently owned. The British government handed both over using the logic that the island couldn't survive without the mainland part. There has always been more than a suspicion however that it was because otherwise the Chinese would have taken it by force anyway and there was nothing we could do to stop them. Neither circumstance applies to Gibraltar.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    My understanding was that land was leased to us, not permanent?

    It's a difficult question either way and I'll sidestep as I don't know enough about that one, including what the locals wanted. At the least the Gibraltar situation is hundreds of years older, which regrettably has to be a factor. Someone was saying yesterday that it was moorish as long as it was Spanish, which further undermines the idea Spain must be the more appropriate state if true.

    Though I dont get your second sentence. That would suggest the eu has a right to Gibraltar and with us out of it we might have to hand Gibraltar back, not ?cling on'.But it has nothing to do with us in or out of the eu. It's uk territory, Spain has no legal claim to it and they know that, they just would like to have it and get frustrated we wont talk about it anymore.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    Personally, yes.

    But we weren't able to - China was too strong.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291

    Richard Burgon is "GENUINELY " a bell end. some of the replies to his tesco trip tweet are very funny.

    Yes. 'Do they sell thesauruses in there?' was a nice one. And the person asking how he got elected; was there genuinely no-one better?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    kle4 said:

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    Do they even claim sovereignty? They don't have a claim unless they want to criticise that we haven't abided by the treaty and allowed Jews and moors in, or quibble about exact boundaries or something like that. I thought what they did was state how they would like sovereignty over it, not that they have a valid claim over it already?
    Feck knows, afaik it's Picardo who mentions a claim of sovereignty in his 'rancid & medieval' explosion.
    Still, much karmic joy to be had from almost precisely the same people who were dropping Spanish veto every 5 minutes in relation to Scotland now fulminating about the dirty D*gos.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    kle4 said:

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    My understanding was that land was leased to us, not permanent?

    It's a difficult question either way and I'll sidestep as I don't know enough about that one, including what the locals wanted. At the least the Gibraltar situation is hundreds of years older, which regrettably has to be a factor. Someone was saying yesterday that it was moorish as long as it was Spanish, which further undermines the idea Spain must be the more appropriate state if true.

    Though I dont get your second sentence. That would suggest the eu has a right to Gibraltar and with us out of it we might have to hand Gibraltar back, not ?cling on'.But it has nothing to do with us in or out of the eu. It's uk territory, Spain has no legal claim to it and they know that, they just would like to have it and get frustrated we wont talk about it anymore.
    As I recall the HK point was that the island was ours but the bit of the adjoining mainland was leased. The view was that the island alone was unsustainable without its Kowloon hinterland?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    chestnut said:

    These 21% who want Brexit overturned will include a chunk of committed Conservative and Labour voters. Where is the evidence that they are mopping up the Anna Soubrey's? The Tony Blairs? The Libdems might skim off a few, but equally, will lose previous LibDems who think the whining about the Brexit result and wanting to overturn a democratic mandate is not for them.

    Article 50 Notice is served. We are leaving. The LibDems will be painted as Rejoiners - having the UK grasp the ankles and assume the position on the Euro, free movement, ever greater union, an EU army, standardised tax rates....

    By 2020, the direct consequences of Rejoining could be that we will have to commit £350m a week to payments to the EU, we will have to reimpose VAT on fuel bills, we will have to reimpose all the hidden eurotaxes on global imports etc....

    It becomes a big tax raising manifesto, slash, suicide note.
    Unless £350,000,000 a week has somehow materialised by then I suspect the government will be facing such a credibility problem the electorate will be buying pink battleships from whoever the opposition happens to be
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    Personally, yes.

    But we weren't able to - China was too strong.
    And that now pertains to Gibraltar - following Brexit, the EU will back Spain to the hilt, and the EU is too strong vis-a-vis the Westminster government.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    My understanding was that land was leased to us, not permanent?

    It's a difficult question either way and I'll sidestep as I don't know enough about that one, including what the locals wanted. At the least the Gibraltar situation is hundreds of years older, which regrettably has to be a factor. Someone was saying yesterday that it was moorish as long as it was Spanish, which further undermines the idea Spain must be the more appropriate state if true.
    The mainland was leased, Victoria Island was permanently owned. The British government handed both over using the logic that the island couldn't survive without the mainland part. There has always been more than a suspicion however that it was because otherwise the Chinese would have taken it by force anyway and there was nothing we could do to stop them. Neither circumstance applies to Gibraltar.
    Yes, that makes sense then. Realpolitik is a powerful force, but as you say Gibraltar can survive on its own - the argument there would be if you cannot look after the citizens someone has to i guess- and the Spanish won't take it by force. The situations are not directly comparable.
  • Richard Burgon is "GENUINELY " a bell end. some of the replies to his tesco trip tweet are very funny.

    Stop dissing him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164

    kle4 said:

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    Do they even claim sovereignty? They don't have a claim unless they want to criticise that we haven't abided by the treaty and allowed Jews and moors in, or quibble about exact boundaries or something like that. I thought what they did was state how they would like sovereignty over it, not that they have a valid claim over it already?
    Feck knows, afaik it's Picardo who mentions a claim of sovereignty in his 'rancid & medieval' explosion.
    Still, much karmic joy to be had from almost precisely the same people who were dropping Spanish veto every 5 minutes in relation to Scotland now fulminating about the dirty D*gos.
    I wouldn't cheer too loudly TUD. If they applied the same logic to Scotland they are applying to Gibraltar they'd be urging the dissolution of Holyrood and the imposition of military government.*

    Fortunately because Theresa May is sane neither is likely to happen.

    *We all know they won't of course. Ceuta proves that. The Spanish government are extremely selfish and self-righteous (cf. their appalling an illegal behaviour over their fishing fleets, which of course is especially damaging to Scotland) and don't care about looking corrupt, incompetent and inconsistent as long as their own people perceive them as patriotic. This may of course finally be common ground they have with Nicola Sturgeon.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    daodao said:

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    Personally, yes.

    But we weren't able to - China was too strong.
    And that now pertains to Gibraltar - following Brexit, the EU will back Spain to the hilt, and the EU is too strong vis-a-vis the Westminster government.
    At first I thought 'wow, there is another poster who thinks like williamglenn'. Then I remembered it was April 1 and everything made sense.

    Very droll.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    Scottish Nationalists rightly believe that if the majority of Scots choose independence from the UK, then they should be granted it. Likewise, citizens of Gibraltar should be able to keep their current arrangements for as long as they wish them to continue.

    96% of Gibraltarians voted in favour of the constitutional status quo last June. Voters in the UK decided to overturn it, despite warnings about what that might mean for Gibraltar. All that has happened now is what was always going to happen - discussions about Gibraltar and its status will revert to being solely a matter for the sovereign governments of the UK, Spain and Gibraltar itself. The EU will have no role.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    as a matter of interest , how many Tory seats are unsinkable?
    See May 1 1997.
    That said, Labour won 8 seats in Kent in 1997. They all now look solid for the Conservatives.
    There are quite a few seats in Shire England that Labour will probably never win again.
    Anyone know as a ballpark figure how many shire seats Blair won? Given that I find even many labour figures seem a little blue round here, it amazing to think how labour could chalkenge in such places.
    Probably about 50-60 seats Labour would never win now, off the top of my head.

    Can you imagine Labour winning Dorset South, Wellingborough, Thanet South, Great Yarmouth or Portsmouth North now?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    Scottish Nationalists rightly believe that if the majority of Scots choose independence from the UK, then they should be granted it. Likewise, citizens of Gibraltar should be able to keep their current arrangements for as long as they wish them to continue.
    Precisely.

    Unfortunately, a sizeable chunk of the Scottish Nationalist core vote are also nasty little blood and soil bigots who think that Bannockburn happened yesterday, and would rejoice if England and everyone in it were obliterated by a giant asteroid.

    Hence the "my enemy's enemy is my friend" logic, which extends to whoops of joy when 32,000 Gibraltarians are picked on by 47 million Spaniards - yet again. Any excess is justified so long as it upsets the hated oppressors.
    They would do well to think about the Gibraltar Precedent:

    - No inherited rights to a UK/EU agreed deal;
    - No inclusion unless both parties agree;
    - No intrusion by the EU overall;

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    Mortimer said:

    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    One point David - while the solution to Labour's problems is indeed obvious, I would dispute that it is simple. We saw last year just how hard it is to shift Corbyn and little has changed since then for all the muttering about his stance on Europe. Unless a plausible unity candidate who can appeal to the party at large emerges (and at present not a single member of the PLP fits that criteria) Corbyn is safe unless he resigns. He clearly has no intention of resigning. Which means that Labour is facing real danger of utter wipeout - as TSE is now saying, more 1931 than 1983.

    1935 IMHO. There are 150 Labour seats that are unsinkable.
    as a matter of interest , how many Tory seats are unsinkable?
    See May 1 1997.
    That said, Labour won 8 seats in Kent in 1997. They all now look solid for the Conservatives.
    There are quite a few seats in Shire England that Labour will probably never win again.
    Understatement alert, Mr C_R.

    Sorry you couldn't make it on Wednesday - hope you had a good bash!
    My apologies. I had to meet up with an old Leaver friend in the West End.

    We drunk a lot of English "Champagne".

    Well done for organising!!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    'rancid and medieval' *is* understatement!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    daodao said:

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    Personally, yes.

    But we weren't able to - China was too strong.
    And that now pertains to Gibraltar - following Brexit, the EU will back Spain to the hilt, and the EU is too strong vis-a-vis the Westminster government.
    How will the eu back them? With no legal right to the land, the most the eu could do is support Spain's requests for us to open a dialogue on the subject since even the Spanish cannot say we've stolen the place from It's rightful owner hence the treaty , and punish the Gibraltarians for not currently wanting to be part of Spain. How non imperialist of them.

    The eu is not about to tell a sovereign nation, the legal holders of a territory supported overwhelmingly by its citizens, that they must hand over its people to another state or it will punish those people. How malevolent do you think the eu is!?

    Spain are being quite selfish in using an eu wide negotiation to open an issue which has nothing to do with the others.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited April 2017
    In all the talk about Gibraltar, I haven't seen one obvious point raised, perhaps because it's too obvious?

    If we'd voted to Remain, Spain would have found some excuse to kick up a fuss about Gibraltar. It's what they do.

    It's exactly the same for the SNP and independence, of course.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Has that bottom one been photoshopped? If not, it's eerie.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Excellent analysis David, I would add one further observeration.

    Labour's dire polling with the over 65s.

    That's pressaging an ELE for Labour.

    Based on the pattern observable from the weekly YouGov surveys, Labour is also around 20% adrift with the 50-64 segment as well.

    Given that the median age of the UK population has now passed 40, and that children obviously don't have the franchise, the over 50s must now be close to half the entire electorate, and the half more likely to vote at that.

    The likelihood that Gordon Brown was the last ever Labour Prime Minister becomes steadily greater. Even if Corbyn falls under a bus and somebody halfway sensible takes over, they've suffered a decade of increasingly severe reputation damage, and are now light years from a majority - absent which, their only likely route to power would lie through some kind of Commons pact with the SNP, a party which most voters in the rest of the UK distrust.

    The only thing not to like about all of this is the current lack of Opposition, and the possibility that this could extend well into the future if Labour becomes a zombie party, shambling across the political landscape, functionally dead as a national force but still strong enough to snuff out any potential replacement. The sooner we are rid of Labour, the better.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    daodao said:

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    Personally, yes.

    But we weren't able to - China was too strong.
    And that now pertains to Gibraltar - following Brexit, the EU will back Spain to the hilt, and the EU is too strong vis-a-vis the Westminster government.
    Err, no. There isn't a People's Republic of Spain army over a million strong at La Linea, backed up with the world's largest economy and air force.

    The UK military is stronger than the Spanish and we can sail there in barely 24 hours, and fly in 2. The realpolitik is we legally own it, and there's nothing to stop us legally keeping it indefinitely.

    All Spain can do is close the border, and complicate air transport arrangements, which they clearly will do.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    Scottish Nationalists rightly believe that if the majority of Scots choose independence from the UK, then they should be granted it. Likewise, citizens of Gibraltar should be able to keep their current arrangements for as long as they wish them to continue.

    96% of Gibraltarians voted in favour of the constitutional status quo last June. Voters in the UK decided to overturn it, despite warnings about what that might mean for Gibraltar. All that has happened now is what was always going to happen - discussions about Gibraltar and its status will revert to being solely a matter for the sovereign governments of the UK, Spain and Gibraltar itself. The EU will have no role.

    Which is why it's weird the less...reflective remainers seem to think the eu will bring pressure to bear for us to relinquish it like Hong Kong. The eu will stand up for its members, help out where it can, but some things are still for the nation itself to resolve, come on.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    Poundland Carlotta? You're slipping if you missed the chance to slip in a dig about Nicola's plans for the currency.

    I'm surprised you aren't busy drawing up posters to explain how Ruth Davidson is the new Disraeli.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    daodao said:

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    Personally, yes.

    But we weren't able to - China was too strong.
    And that now pertains to Gibraltar - following Brexit, the EU will back Spain to the hilt, and the EU is too strong vis-a-vis the Westminster government.
    Err, no. There isn't a People's Republic of Spain army over a million strong at La Linea, backed up with the world's largest economy and air force.

    The UK military is stronger than the Spanish and we can sail there in barely 24 hours, and fly in 2. The realpolitik is we legally own it, and there's nothing to stop us legally keeping it indefinitely.

    All Spain can do is close the border, and complicate air transport arrangements, which they clearly will do.
    And argue over fishing in the waters.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    kle4 said:

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    My understanding was that land was leased to us, not permanent?

    It's a difficult question either way and I'll sidestep as I don't know about that one, including what the locals wanted.
    Hong Kong island was sovereign territory of the UK. Most of the surrounding land was leased.
    Hong Kong Island was a non-viable state - no water, no power, no sewage management system. In the circumstances we did the best that we could do for them (although we should have extended visas in the way that Canada did)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    My understanding was that land was leased to us, not permanent?

    It's a difficult question either way and I'll sidestep as I don't know enough about that one, including what the locals wanted. At the least the Gibraltar situation is hundreds of years older, which regrettably has to be a factor. Someone was saying yesterday that it was moorish as long as it was Spanish, which further undermines the idea Spain must be the more appropriate state if true.
    The mainland was leased, Victoria Island was permanently owned. The British government handed both over using the logic that the island couldn't survive without the mainland part. There has always been more than a suspicion however that it was because otherwise the Chinese would have taken it by force anyway and there was nothing we could do to stop them. Neither circumstance applies to Gibraltar.
    Yes, that makes sense then. Realpolitik is a powerful force, but as you say Gibraltar can survive on its own - the argument there would be if you cannot look after the citizens someone has to i guess- and the Spanish won't take it by force. The situations are not directly comparable.

    PP is a nationalist party with a strong streak of Francoist sympathiser in it. Spain's position is hypocritical in the extreme given its holdings in North Africa. But Spain is not going to invade and in reality not much will change - a lot of Spanisrds rely on a free-flowing border because they work in Gibraltar.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257

    In all the talk about Gibraltar, I haven't seen one obvious point raised, perhaps because it's too obvious?

    If we'd voted to Remain, Spain would have found some excuse to kick up a fuss about Gibraltar. It's what they do.

    It's exactly the same for the SNP and independence, of course.

    Yep.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    edited April 2017
    Silly tweet. Thatcher won six elections by huge margins including three leadership elections and was on the winning side in a referendum while a second on her watch was declared invalid. Sturgeon was appointed unopposed and has lost a referendum and a parliamentary election. Admittedly she did reasonably well at the 2015 general election but the circumstances were unusual.

    She's not worth a quid compared to Thatcher. More like 15p.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Genuine question, how big a deal is Gibraltar in Spain? You see with the Falklands it is a fairly big deal, everyone is in general agreement that they both want it and are legally entitled to it and just quibble over how to bring it up now military action is off the table, but what is the general Spanish view? I assume generally supportive or else it would not be so popular to bring it up as a distraction, but it's not been if Spain for a long time and the legal question is clear, so is it a big deal, or more just if they could get it, that'd be great?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689

    daodao said:

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    Personally, yes.

    But we weren't able to - China was too strong.
    And that now pertains to Gibraltar - following Brexit, the EU will back Spain to the hilt, and the EU is too strong vis-a-vis the Westminster government.
    Err, no. There isn't a People's Republic of Spain army over a million strong at La Linea, backed up with the world's largest economy and air force.

    The UK military is stronger than the Spanish and we can sail there in barely 24 hours, and fly in 2. The realpolitik is we legally own it, and there's nothing to stop us legally keeping it indefinitely.

    All Spain can do is close the border, and complicate air transport arrangements, which they clearly will do.
    Exactly, realistically the UK military only needs to be bigger than 3 militaries, those of Spain, Argentina and the Republic of Ireland to defend Gibraltar, the Falklands or Northern Ireland in the unlikely event of invasion. All other conflicts the UK is involved in will be alongside the US, NATO or the UN
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883

    If we'd voted to Remain, Spain would have found some excuse to kick up a fuss about Gibraltar. It's what they do.

    It's exactly the same for the SNP and independence, of course.

    If we'd voted Remain, how far would the SNP or Spain have got?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    edited April 2017

    Poundland Carlotta? You're slipping if you missed the chance to slip in a dig about Nicola's plans for the currency.

    I'm surprised you aren't busy drawing up posters to explain how Ruth Davidson is the new Disraeli.

    I'd compare Davidson to Derby. Not electorally especially successful (although a case could be made that he is the only party leader to win five consecutive general elections) but generally respected and doing a reasonable job after an extinction level event. I see no sign of a Scottish Disraeli.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited April 2017
    ydoethur said:

    Silly tweet. Thatcher won six elections by huge margins including three leadership elections and was on the winning side in a referendum while a second on her watch was declared invalid. Sturgeon was appointed unopposed and has lost a referendum and a parliamentary election. Admittedly she did reasonably well at the 2015 general election but the circumstances were unusual.

    She's not worth a quid compared to Thatcher. More like 15p.
    Scot Labour should enlarge that up and spend all remaining campaigning money on buying poster sites/social media space for it...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    edited April 2017
    Slightly mystifying why the PB Thatchurbators are so desperate to draw comparisons between Thatch & Sturgeon. In their customary cloth eared way when it comes to Scotland, do they think the voters (who still largely loathe Magrit) are going to suddenly turn away from the EssEnnPee in a fit of 1980s déjà vu?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Silly tweet. Thatcher won six elections by huge margins including three leadership elections and was on the winning side in a referendum while a second on her watch was declared invalid. Sturgeon was appointed unopposed and has lost a referendum and a parliamentary election. Admittedly she did reasonably well at the 2015 general election but the circumstances were unusual.

    She's not worth a quid compared to Thatcher. More like 15p.
    So about the same as an iScot quid?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    Mortimer said:

    ydoethur said:

    Silly tweet. Thatcher won six elections by huge margins including three leadership elections and was on the winning side in a referendum while a second on her watch was declared invalid. Sturgeon was appointed unopposed and has lost a referendum and a parliamentary election. Admittedly she did reasonably well at the 2015 general election but the circumstances were unusual.

    She's not worth a quid compared to Thatcher. More like 15p.
    Scot Labour should enlarge that up and spend all remaining campaigning money on buying poster sites/social media space for it...
    Since any split in the left vote benefits the blues in Caledonia, maybe Davidson should make them a Trump-style small loan on the quiet to help?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    kle4 said:

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    Scottish Nationalists rightly believe that if the majority of Scots choose independence from the UK, then they should be granted it. Likewise, citizens of Gibraltar should be able to keep their current arrangements for as long as they wish them to continue.

    96% of Gibraltarians voted in favour of the constitutional status quo last June. Voters in the UK decided to overturn it, despite warnings about what that might mean for Gibraltar. All that has happened now is what was always going to happen - discussions about Gibraltar and its status will revert to being solely a matter for the sovereign governments of the UK, Spain and Gibraltar itself. The EU will have no role.

    Which is why it's weird the less...reflective remainers seem to think the eu will bring pressure to bear for us to relinquish it like Hong Kong. The eu will stand up for its members, help out where it can, but some things are still for the nation itself to resolve, come on.

    Exactly. When Spain was negotiating its EU membership the EU insisted on it accepting an open border with Gibraltar. It was looking after the UK's interests, as we were an existing member state. Now, the EU will defer to Spain in this matter. But it will do no more. Sovereignty matters are for the Spanish, the UK and Gibraltar to discuss. Like you, I have been puzzled by reactions to something that was always going to happen once we left. Spain will now have a much easier time if it wants to play silly buggers, but having been told this British voters decided it was not a big enough issue to persuade them to remain part of the EU.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Slightly mystifying why the PB Thatchurbators are so desperate to draw comparisons between Thatch & Sturgeon. In their customary cloth eared way when it comes to Scotland, do they think the voters (who still largely loathe Magrit) are going to suddenly turn away from the EssEnnPee in a fit of 1980s déjà vu?

    Thatcher makes people on all sides slightly hysterical.

    Personally I think the comparisons from photo framing and valid slogans is just an amusing trifle.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Silly tweet. Thatcher won six elections by huge margins including three leadership elections and was on the winning side in a referendum while a second on her watch was declared invalid. Sturgeon was appointed unopposed and has lost a referendum and a parliamentary election. Admittedly she did reasonably well at the 2015 general election but the circumstances were unusual.

    She's not worth a quid compared to Thatcher. More like 15p.
    So about the same as an iScot quid?
    Surely not Charles? As any avid reader of Stevenson will tell you, the Pound Scots was worth the same as an English shilling.

    (Incidentally that wasn't quite true, but it was a good dramatic line.)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Slightly mystifying why the PB Thatchurbators are so desperate to draw comparisons between Thatch & Sturgeon. In their customary cloth eared way when it comes to Scotland, do they think the voters (who still largely loathe Magrit) are going to suddenly turn away from the EssEnnPee in a fit of 1980s déjà vu?

    Left wing voters should be constently reminded that the SNP are not their best champions. Unionists don't need reminding.
  • Awb683Awb683 Posts: 80
    A Tory landslide looks the best result for the UK - as always.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    edited April 2017

    kle4 said:

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    Scottish Nationalists rightly believe that if the majority of Scots choose independence from the UK, then they should be granted it. Likewise, citizens of Gibraltar should be able to keep their current arrangements for as long as they wish them to continue.

    96% of Gibraltarians voted in favour of the constitutional status quo last June. Voters in the UK decided to overturn it, despite warnings about what that might mean for Gibraltar. All that has happened now is what was always going to happen - discussions about Gibraltar and its status will revert to being solely a matter for the sovereign governments of the UK, Spain and Gibraltar itself. The EU will have no role.

    Which is why it's weird the less...reflective remainers seem to think the eu will bring pressure to bear for us to relinquish it like Hong Kong. The eu will stand up for its members, help out where it can, but some things are still for the nation itself to resolve, come on.

    Exactly. When Spain was negotiating its EU membership the EU insisted on it accepting an open border with Gibraltar. It was looking after the UK's interests, as we were an existing member state.
    As I recall, that was a condition that Spain has flagrantly and consistently breached.

    Edit - this is one very recent example, but there are others: http://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/eu-says-spanish-controls-at-gibraltar-border-do-not-break-law/
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    kle4 said:

    Genuine question, how big a deal is Gibraltar in Spain? You see with the Falklands it is a fairly big deal, everyone is in general agreement that they both want it and are legally entitled to it and just quibble over how to bring it up now military action is off the table, but what is the general Spanish view? I assume generally supportive or else it would not be so popular to bring it up as a distraction, but it's not been if Spain for a long time and the legal question is clear, so is it a big deal, or more just if they could get it, that'd be great?

    The general view is that Gibraltar is Spanish. The further right you go the more of an issue it is. On that basis, I'd say it actually matters to around 20%-25% of voters; though a large majority would support its return.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    edited April 2017
    Mortimer said:

    Slightly mystifying why the PB Thatchurbators are so desperate to draw comparisons between Thatch & Sturgeon. In their customary cloth eared way when it comes to Scotland, do they think the voters (who still largely loathe Magrit) are going to suddenly turn away from the EssEnnPee in a fit of 1980s déjà vu?

    Left wing voters should be constently reminded that the SNP are not their best champions. Unionists don't need reminding.
    A shame then that the wisdom of the PB Yoon fraternity is completely unknown to the left wing Scottish voter. All that 'constently' produced froth to absolutely no effect.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    Scottish Nationalists rightly believe that if the majority of Scots choose independence from the UK, then they should be granted it. Likewise, citizens of Gibraltar should be able to keep their current arrangements for as long as they wish them to continue.

    96% of Gibraltarians voted in favour of the constitutional status quo last June. Voters in the UK decided to overturn it, despite warnings about what that might mean for Gibraltar. All that has happened now is what was always going to happen - discussions about Gibraltar and its status will revert to being solely a matter for the sovereign governments of the UK, Spain and Gibraltar itself. The EU will have no role.

    Which is why it's weird the less...reflective remainers seem to think the eu will bring pressure to bear for us to relinquish it like Hong Kong. The eu will stand up for its members, help out where it can, but some things are still for the nation itself to resolve, come on.

    Exactly. When Spain was negotiating its EU membership the EU insisted on it accepting an open border with Gibraltar. It was looking after the UK's interests, as we were an existing member state.
    As I recall, that was a condition that Spain has flagrantly and consistently breached.

    It's played silly buggers from time time and then backed down after British protests, but compared to the pre-EU situation Gibraltar has had very good years while both countries have been member states.

  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    OUT said:
    Slightly over-egging it... :)
    Our rock-like support for Gibraltar is so unshakeable that Theresa forgot to mention that in her A50 letter.
    If she had you'd be complaining she was using people as bargaining chips......now the EU is doing it, the silence is deafening......
    Gibraltar is on the European mainland. Therefore, should be part of the EU. Since I do not support colonies, I believe Spain has a very good case. In any event, Theresa May has washed Gibraltar down the plug-hole. Don't blame her. We should get rid of the appendages.

    Scotland and Northern Ireland should also be in the EU.
    I agree.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291

    kle4 said:

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    Scottish Nationalists rightly believe that if the majority of Scots choose independence from the UK, then they should be granted it. Likewise, citizens of Gibraltar should be able to keep their current arrangements for as long as they wish them to continue.

    96% of Gibraltarians voted in favour of the constitutional status quo last June. Voters in the UK decided to overturn it, despite warnings about what that might mean for Gibraltar. All that has happened now is what was always going to happen - discussions about Gibraltar and its status will revert to being solely a matter for the sovereign governments of the UK, Spain and Gibraltar itself. The EU will have no role.

    Which is why it's weird the less...reflective remainers seem to think the eu will bring pressure to bear for us to relinquish it like Hong Kong. The eu will stand up for its members, help out where it can, but some things are still for the nation itself to resolve, come on.

    Exactly. When Spain was negotiating its EU membership the EU insisted on it accepting an open border with Gibraltar. It was looking after the UK's interests, as we were an existing member state. Now, the EU will defer to Spain in this matter. But it will do no more. Sovereignty matters are for the Spanish, the UK and Gibraltar to discuss. Like you, I have been puzzled by reactions to something that was always going to happen once we left. Spain will now have a much easier time if it wants to play silly buggers, but having been told this British voters decided it was not a big enough issue to persuade them to remain part of the EU.

    Meanwhile in negotiation it may help them win some more fish.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,264

    kle4 said:

    Genuine question, how big a deal is Gibraltar in Spain? You see with the Falklands it is a fairly big deal, everyone is in general agreement that they both want it and are legally entitled to it and just quibble over how to bring it up now military action is off the table, but what is the general Spanish view? I assume generally supportive or else it would not be so popular to bring it up as a distraction, but it's not been if Spain for a long time and the legal question is clear, so is it a big deal, or more just if they could get it, that'd be great?

    The general view is that Gibraltar is Spanish. The further right you go the more of an issue it is. On that basis, I'd say it actually matters to around 20%-25% of voters; though a large majority would support its return.

    "its return". OK Spain - how about you "return" those parts that used to be run by the Moors, huh? Let's go back to Al-Andalus borders.... Deal?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,410
    kle4 said:



    And that now pertains to Gibraltar - following Brexit, the EU will back Spain to the hilt, and the EU is too strong vis-a-vis the Westminster government.

    How will the eu back them? With no legal right to the land, the most the eu could do is support Spain's requests for us to open a dialogue on the subject since even the Spanish cannot say we've stolen the place from It's rightful owner hence the treaty , and punish the Gibraltarians for not currently wanting to be part of Spain. How non imperialist of them.

    The eu is not about to tell a sovereign nation, the legal holders of a territory supported overwhelmingly by its citizens, that they must hand over its people to another state or it will punish those people. How malevolent do you think the eu is!?

    Spain are being quite selfish in using an eu wide negotiation to open an issue which has nothing to do with the others.


    IMO the inclusion of a Spanish veto over EU-Gibraltar relations in the EU's Draft Guidelines for Article 50 talks shows two things. Firstly that by leaving the EU we have traded real influence for notional sovereignty. What was previously a dispute between two EU members is now one between an EU member and outsider. The EU now sides with the remaining member and will ignore the one that has left. Secondly, the EU hasn't the slightest intention of allowing Gibraltar to derail the main deal with the UK. I doubt the UK does either.

    None of this means the EU will support a Spanish takeover of Gibraltar by force. That runs contrary to what it stands for.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    daodao said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    RobD said:

    OUT said:
    Slightly over-egging it... :)
    Our rock-like support for Gibraltar is so unshakeable that Theresa forgot to mention that in her A50 letter.
    If she had you'd be complaining she was using people as bargaining chips......now the EU is doing it, the silence is deafening......
    Gibraltar is on the European mainland. Therefore, should be part of the EU. Since I do not support colonies, I believe Spain has a very good case. In any event, Theresa May has washed Gibraltar down the plug-hole. Don't blame her. We should get rid of the appendages.

    Scotland and Northern Ireland should also be in the EU.
    I agree.
    The issue with that logic is that if applied to Spain itself then there would be no Spain to hand Gibraltar back to.
  • Richard Burgon is "GENUINELY " a bell end. some of the replies to his tesco trip tweet are very funny.

    Stop dissing him.
    nearly got me there... April fool
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719

    On topic - great thread - though I think you'll rue the day you wrote this:

    Scotland has more chance of winning the World Cup than it does of electing a Labour government.

    It also has more chance of winning World Cup 3 times in a row than electing A tory Government
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    edited April 2017
    FF43 said:


    IMO the inclusion of a Spanish veto over EU-Gibraltar relations in the EU's Draft Guidelines for Article 50 talks shows two things. Firstly that by leaving the EU we have traded real influence for notional sovereignty. What was previously a dispute between two EU members is now one between an EU member and outsider. The EU now sides with the remaining member and will ignore the one that has left. Secondly, the EU hasn't the slightest intention of allowing Gibraltar to derail the main deal with the UK. I doubt the UK does either.

    None of this means the EU will support a Spanish takeover of Gibraltar by force. That runs contrary to what it stands for.

    As someone put it on R4 this am, when the UK was a member of the EEC & Spain was not, the default position was for the EEC to take its member's side in any disputes. The same principle applies today.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017
    On matters domestic: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39449344

    Two million workers receive 4% pay rise.

    At the same time we are seeing increases in most public service or utility bills - council tax, the BBC, water, travel.

    I wonder how long until we see a small increase in the interest rate? The latest savings data implies it is needed.

    The £:€ is 1.18 or so, not far off the average since 2008, while the £:$ is also being impacted by a string of rate rises in the US.
  • Richard Burgon is "GENUINELY " a bell end. some of the replies to his tesco trip tweet are very funny.

    Stop dissing him.
    nearly got me there... April fool
    I win 5 grand if he becomes the next Labour leader.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/14/the-1001-bet-on-the-next-labour-leader-that-quite-a-few-of-us-have-taken-this-last-week/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,888
    Best April Fool; The Guaddian’s ‘Lets Move to Framplington’, apparently a l;eftie paradise in Suffolk. Had my suspciaons, but it wasn’t until I got to the bit about the schools; The Ofsted rated outstanding Clement Attlee Community School and the ‘reguires improvement’ Anthony Blair CofE Secondary that I fully twigged.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:



    And that now pertains to Gibraltar - following Brexit, the EU will back Spain to the hilt, and the EU is too strong vis-a-vis the Westminster government.

    How will the eu back them? With no legal right to the land, the most the eu could do is support Spain's requests for us to open a dialogue on the subject since even the Spanish cannot say we've stolen the place from It's rightful owner hence the treaty , and punish the Gibraltarians for not currently wanting to be part of Spain. How non imperialist of them.

    The eu is not about to tell a sovereign nation, the legal holders of a territory supported overwhelmingly by its citizens, that they must hand over its people to another state or it will punish those people. How malevolent do you think the eu is!?

    Spain are being quite selfish in using an eu wide negotiation to open an issue which has nothing to do with the others.
    IMO the inclusion of a Spanish veto over EU-Gibraltar relations in the EU's Draft Guidelines for Article 50 talks shows two things. Firstly that by leaving the EU we have traded real influence for notional sovereignty. What was previously a dispute between two EU members is now one between an EU member and outsider. The EU now sides with the remaining member and will ignore the one that has left. Secondly, the EU hasn't the slightest intention of allowing Gibraltar to derail the main deal with the UK. I doubt the UK does either.

    None of this means the EU will support a Spanish takeover of Gibraltar by force. That runs contrary to what it stands for.



    Spain only has a veto on any UK/EU deal being automatically applied to Gibraltar. All the EU will do from now on is have nothing to do with the whole issue. Once we are out, EU rules about free movement of goods, services, finance and people will no longer apply to Gibraltar, meaning Spain can choose to play silly buggers to its heart's content with no check.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    I see the Independence for Constantinople Movement is in full voice today :p

    Freedom for Burgundy! Restore the Angevin Empire!

    Fortunately, just a week to go until China, and then sanity will be restored as we all enjoy F1 again.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    Scottish Nationalists rightly believe that if the majority of Scots choose independence from the UK, then they should be granted it. Likewise, citizens of Gibraltar should be able to keep their current arrangements for as long as they wish them to continue.

    96% of Gibraltarians voted in favour of the constitutional status quo last June. Voters in the UK decided to overturn it, despite warnings about what that might mean for Gibraltar. All that has happened now is what was always going to happen - discussions about Gibraltar and its status will revert to being solely a matter for the sovereign governments of the UK, Spain and Gibraltar itself. The EU will have no role.

    Which is why it's weird the less...reflective remainers seem to think the eu will bring pressure to bear for us to relinquish it like Hong Kong. The eu will stand up for its members, help out where it can, but some things are still for the nation itself to resolve, come on.

    Exactly. When Spain was negotiating its EU membership the EU insisted on it accepting an open border with Gibraltar. It was looking after the UK's interests, as we were an existing member state.
    As I recall, that was a condition that Spain has flagrantly and consistently breached.

    It's played silly buggers from time time and then backed down after British protests, but compared to the pre-EU situation Gibraltar has had very good years while both countries have been member states.

    Given that until 1978 the Francoists were in charge in Spain, I'm not sure it's really comparable though - not easy to determine how much of the improvement is down to the EU vs the transition to democracy
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    They are grasping hard to what little is left, the last fig leaf they have to show their "Power"
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774

    FF43 said:


    IMO the inclusion of a Spanish veto over EU-Gibraltar relations in the EU's Draft Guidelines for Article 50 talks shows two things. Firstly that by leaving the EU we have traded real influence for notional sovereignty. What was previously a dispute between two EU members is now one between an EU member and outsider. The EU now sides with the remaining member and will ignore the one that has left. Secondly, the EU hasn't the slightest intention of allowing Gibraltar to derail the main deal with the UK. I doubt the UK does either.

    None of this means the EU will support a Spanish takeover of Gibraltar by force. That runs contrary to what it stands for.

    As someone put it on R4 this am, when the UK was a member of the EEC & Spain was not, the default position was for the EEC to take its member's side in any disputes. The same principle applies today.

    Precisely. This was flagged during the referendum campaign, but like the NI border a majority of voters decided they did not think it an important enough reason to stay in the EU. The 96% of Gibraltarians who voted Remain felt differently, but were outvoted.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    edited April 2017

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    Scottish Nationalists rightly believe that if the majority of Scots choose independence from the UK, then they should be granted it. Likewise, citizens of Gibraltar should be able to keep their current arrangements for as long as they wish them to continue.
    Precisely.

    Unfortunately, a sizeable chunk of the Scottish Nationalist core vote are also nasty little blood and soil bigots who think that Bannockburn happened yesterday, and would rejoice if England and everyone in it were obliterated by a giant asteroid.

    Hence the "my enemy's enemy is my friend" logic, which extends to whoops of joy when 32,000 Gibraltarians are picked on by 47 million Spaniards - yet again. Any excess is justified so long as it upsets the hated oppressors.
    Little Englanders with their inferiority complexes to the fore this morning I see. Lost your butchers apron son.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,410
    edited April 2017

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:



    How will the eu back them? With no legal right to the land, the most the eu could do is support Spain's requests for us to open a dialogue on the subject since even the Spanish cannot say we've stolen the place from It's rightful owner hence the treaty , and punish the Gibraltarians for not currently wanting to be part of Spain. How non imperialist of them.

    The eu is not about to tell a sovereign nation, the legal holders of a territory supported overwhelmingly by its citizens, that they must hand over its people to another state or it will punish those people. How malevolent do you think the eu is!?

    Spain are being quite selfish in using an eu wide negotiation to open an issue which has nothing to do with the others.

    IMO the inclusion of a Spanish veto over EU-Gibraltar relations in the EU's Draft Guidelines for Article 50 talks shows two things. Firstly that by leaving the EU we have traded real influence for notional sovereignty. What was previously a dispute between two EU members is now one between an EU member and outsider. The EU now sides with the remaining member and will ignore the one that has left. Secondly, the EU hasn't the slightest intention of allowing Gibraltar to derail the main deal with the UK. I doubt the UK does either.

    None of this means the EU will support a Spanish takeover of Gibraltar by force. That runs contrary to what it stands for.

    Spain only has a veto on any UK/EU deal being automatically applied to Gibraltar. All the EU will do from now on is have nothing to do with the whole issue. Once we are out, EU rules about free movement of goods, services, finance and people will no longer apply to Gibraltar, meaning Spain can choose to play silly buggers to its heart's content with no check.

    Mostly I think this is to clear the Gibraltar barnacle off the boat. The EU doesn't want Spain to come in at a late stage and say, we're not agreeing the Brexit deal until we get our way over Gibraltar. This separates the two issues, which is less good from Gibraltar's point of view. I doubt the UK government minds about that, as long as the Union flag keeps flying over the Rock.

    And edit. This is the price of Brexit. The UK government will trade away all sorts of interests to get the Brexit deal: UK fishermen (as always) and now Gibraltarians, banks and UK farmers.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    timmo said:

    Sean_F said:

    I would point out the 165 the Cons won in 1997 included North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    The AB - CDE split has been very evident in my personal door-knocking here in South Cumbria. AB's seem to be content with Farron's words on Brexit - which they generally fear. CDEs talk of smashing the telly when his face comes on. That includes two families which used to have loads of Farron posters in their gardens.

    For the first time Farron's photo in a LD leaflet here is a vote loser.

    The LibDems desperately need to get themselves some policies, rather than rely on the discontent with the Brexit vote, which I suspect has a rather short shelf-life.
    I think the discontent will get them past the next election. The 21% who want Brexit overturned will gravitate to them.

    A 13% swing in Inner London would regain Bermondsey and Hornsey & Wood Green, and would suggest they could regain seats like Cambridge and Bristol West.
    And Kingston and Richmond..
    Mole valley is a distinct possibility for them as well
    No - it really isn't.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    edited April 2017
    And I thought the April Fool was them telling Govan that thirteen Type 26 frigates were to be built.

    'Type 26 Frigates to be named after Scottish towns in bid to increase support for union

    Minister Joseph King said:

    “The new world beating frigate fleet need a world beating name, what better way to convince Scotland it’s better off as part of the UK than naming these vessels after Scottish towns.
    After work begins in Summer, I will personally tour the namesake towns and extol the virtues of this fantastic news.”'

    http://tinyurl.com/k4vvg9x
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    Do they even claim sovereignty? They don't have a claim unless they want to criticise that we haven't abided by the treaty and allowed Jews and moors in, or quibble about exact boundaries or something like that. I thought what they did was state how they would like sovereignty over it, not that they have a valid claim over it already?
    Feck knows, afaik it's Picardo who mentions a claim of sovereignty in his 'rancid & medieval' explosion.
    Still, much karmic joy to be had from almost precisely the same people who were dropping Spanish veto every 5 minutes in relation to Scotland now fulminating about the dirty D*gos.
    I wouldn't cheer too loudly TUD. If they applied the same logic to Scotland they are applying to Gibraltar they'd be urging the dissolution of Holyrood and the imposition of military government.*

    Fortunately because Theresa May is sane neither is likely to happen.

    *We all know they won't of course. Ceuta proves that. The Spanish government are extremely selfish and self-righteous (cf. their appalling an illegal behaviour over their fishing fleets, which of course is especially damaging to Scotland) and don't care about looking corrupt, incompetent and inconsistent as long as their own people perceive them as patriotic. This may of course finally be common ground they have with Nicola Sturgeon.
    Not a chance , May will sell out Scotland yet again , Scotland will see the UK trade its fishing yet again or retain it all at Westminster. The Nasties will shaft us big time as always. Sooner we are out the better.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    Scottish Nationalists rightly believe that if the majority of Scots choose independence from the UK, then they should be granted it. Likewise, citizens of Gibraltar should be able to keep their current arrangements for as long as they wish them to continue.

    96% of Gibraltarians voted in favour of the constitutional status quo last June. Voters in the UK decided to overturn it, despite warnings about what that might mean for Gibraltar. All that has happened now is what was always going to happen - discussions about Gibraltar and its status will revert to being solely a matter for the sovereign governments of the UK, Spain and Gibraltar itself. The EU will have no role.

    Which is why it's weird the less...reflective remainers seem to think the eu will bring pressure to bear for us to relinquish it like Hong Kong. The eu will stand up for its members, help out where it can, but some things are still for the nation itself to resolve, come on.

    Exactly. When Spain was negotiating its EU membership the EU insisted on it accepting an open border with Gibraltar. It was looking after the UK's interests, as we were an existing member state.
    As I recall, that was a condition that Spain has flagrantly and consistently breached.

    It's played silly buggers from time time and then backed down after British protests, but compared to the pre-EU situation Gibraltar has had very good years while both countries have been member states.

    Given that until 1978 the Francoists were in charge in Spain, I'm not sure it's really comparable though - not easy to determine how much of the improvement is down to the EU vs the transition to democracy

    The Francoists lost power in Spain before 1978. But the Spanish blockade of Gibraltar only ended in 1985, just a year before Spain became an EU member state. The blockade was incompatible with Spanish EU membership.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    edited April 2017

    Best April Fool; The Guaddian’s ‘Lets Move to Framplington’, apparently a l;eftie paradise in Suffolk. Had my suspciaons, but it wasn’t until I got to the bit about the schools; The Ofsted rated outstanding Clement Attlee Community School and the ‘reguires improvement’ Anthony Blair CofE Secondary that I fully twigged.


    Going a long way back:


    On 1 April 1977 the Guardian produced a 7 page travel supplement on the tiny tropical republic of San Serriffe, “a small archipeligo, its main islands grouped roughly in the shape of a semicolon, in the Indian Ocean”, which was apparently celebrating ten years of independence.

    https://www.theguardian.com/gnmeducationcentre/archive-educational-resource-april-2012
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:



    How will the eu back them? With no legal right to the land, the most the eu could do is support Spain's requests for us to open a dialogue on the subject since even the Spanish cannot say we've stolen the place from It's rightful owner hence the treaty , and punish the Gibraltarians for not currently wanting to be part of Spain. How non imperialist of them.

    The eu is not about to tell a sovereign nation, the legal holders of a territory supported overwhelmingly by its citizens, that they must hand over its people to another state or it will punish those people. How malevolent do you think the eu is!?

    Spain are being quite selfish in using an eu wide negotiation to open an issue which has nothing to do with the others.

    IMO the inclusion of a Spanish veto over EU-Gibraltar relations in the EU's Draft Guidelines for Article 50 talks shows two things. Firstly that by leaving the EU we have traded real influence for notional sovereignty. What was previously a dispute between two EU members is now one between an EU member and outsider. The EU now sides with the remaining member and will ignore the one that has left. Secondly, the EU hasn't the slightest intention of allowing Gibraltar to derail the main deal with the UK. I doubt the UK does either.

    None of this means the EU will support a Spanish takeover of Gibraltar by force. That runs contrary to what it stands for.

    Spain only has a veto on any UK/EU deal being automatically applied to Gibraltar. All the EU will do from now on is have nothing to do with the whole issue. Once we are out, EU rules about free movement of goods, services, finance and people will no longer apply to Gibraltar, meaning Spain can choose to play silly buggers to its heart's content with no check.

    Mostly I think this is to clear the Gibraltar barnacle off the boat. The EU doesn't want Spain to come in at a late stage and say, we're not agreeing the Brexit deal until we get our way over Gibraltar. This separates the two issues, which is less good from Gibraltar's point of view. I doubt the UK government minds about that, as long as the Union flag keeps flying over the Rock.

    And edit. This is the price of Brexit. The UK government will trade away all sorts of interests to get the Brexit deal: UK fishermen (as always) and now Gibraltarians, banks and UK farmers.

    It's the will of the voters :-)

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    FF43 said:



    Mostly I think this is to clear the Gibraltar barnacle off the boat. The EU doesn't want Spain to come in at a late stage and say, we're not agreeing the Brexit deal until we get our way over Gibraltar. This separates the two issues, which is less good from Gibraltar's point of view. I doubt the UK government minds about that, as long as the Union flag keeps flying over the Rock.

    And edit. This is the price of Brexit. The UK government will trade away all sorts of interests to get the Brexit deal: UK fishermen (as always) and now Gibraltarians, banks and UK farmers.

    The British government would love to get rid of Gibraltar. They have spent years trying to hand it over- who could forget everyone's least favourite New Labour type, Hain, trying to persuade everyone that joint sovereignty merely meant another flag outside government buildings (which we all knew it wasn't but we also knew was the only way the people affected might be persuaded to swallow it)?

    The real snag from their point of view is that there is no legal way for them to do so, Peter Caruana memorably invoking self-determination to stop that one by means of a wildcat referendum which if Sturgeon had any brains she would have studied closely. As a result, Gibraltar remains British regardless of how inconvenient that is in geopolitical terms.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719

    Mortimer said:

    Slightly mystifying why the PB Thatchurbators are so desperate to draw comparisons between Thatch & Sturgeon. In their customary cloth eared way when it comes to Scotland, do they think the voters (who still largely loathe Magrit) are going to suddenly turn away from the EssEnnPee in a fit of 1980s déjà vu?

    Left wing voters should be constently reminded that the SNP are not their best champions. Unionists don't need reminding.
    A shame then that the wisdom of the PB Yoon fraternity is completely unknown to the left wing Scottish voter. All that 'constently' produced froth to absolutely no effect.
    Hard to believe some of the fruitcakes on here, absolutely barking mad. The ignorance regarding Scotland is stupendous.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited April 2017
    malcolmg said:

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    They are grasping hard to what little is left, the last fig leaf they have to show their "Power"
    That's not it at all malcolmg, and it's silly to think so, and needlessly insulting to lump the issue on with neo imperialists, a comforting simplicity that is just plain false. . If Gibraltar wanted to go, that'd be another thing.

    Trying to gain a place you have no legal claim to, againSt the wishes of its residents, is a better example of that.

    And now to enjoy sow sunshine.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Silly tweet. Thatcher won six elections by huge margins including three leadership elections and was on the winning side in a referendum while a second on her watch was declared invalid. Sturgeon was appointed unopposed and has lost a referendum and a parliamentary election. Admittedly she did reasonably well at the 2015 general election but the circumstances were unusual.

    She's not worth a quid compared to Thatcher. More like 15p.
    So about the same as an iScot quid?
    Now we have the pompous sneering establishment millionaire thinking he is funny.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    malcolmg said:

    Mortimer said:

    Slightly mystifying why the PB Thatchurbators are so desperate to draw comparisons between Thatch & Sturgeon. In their customary cloth eared way when it comes to Scotland, do they think the voters (who still largely loathe Magrit) are going to suddenly turn away from the EssEnnPee in a fit of 1980s déjà vu?

    Left wing voters should be constently reminded that the SNP are not their best champions. Unionists don't need reminding.
    A shame then that the wisdom of the PB Yoon fraternity is completely unknown to the left wing Scottish voter. All that 'constently' produced froth to absolutely no effect.
    Hard to believe some of the fruitcakes on here, absolutely barking mad. The ignorance regarding Scotland is stupendous.
    Talking about SNP EU policy, are you?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    This would imply about 60 Conservative gains from Labour.

    Many would be seats that haven't voted Conservative for decades (eg Grimsby, Halifax, Hartlepool, NE Derbyshire, Stoke North and South). But, some ex-Conservative seats would remain Labour (eg Exeter, Crosby, Croydon North, Bristol West).
    But, let's say Corbyn is thrown overboard next year, and replaced.

    How much can a new Labour leader claw back in 2 years? All of it, so they're back to Milliband's position, or is the damage too great?

    That's the question I'm trying to assess in betting on this.
    There's been a long term trend of the working class moving rightwards and the middle class moving leftwards.

    There's another long term trend of urban areas moving leftwards and medium towns moving rightwards.

    So even if Labour does recover then medium sized working class areas will still be increasingly vulnerable.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    So Spain's claim of sovereignty over Gibraltar is 'rancid and medieval'? These continentals never can quite get the hang of English understatement.

    Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.

    Do they even claim sovereignty? They don't have a claim unless they want to criticise that we haven't abided by the treaty and allowed Jews and moors in, or quibble about exact boundaries or something like that. I thought what they did was state how they would like sovereignty over it, not that they have a valid claim over it already?
    Feck knows, afaik it's Picardo who mentions a claim of sovereignty in his 'rancid & medieval' explosion.
    Still, much karmic joy to be had from almost precisely the same people who were dropping Spanish veto every 5 minutes in relation to Scotland now fulminating about the dirty D*gos.
    I wouldn't cheer too loudly TUD. If they applied the same logic to Scotland they are applying to Gibraltar they'd be urging the dissolution of Holyrood and the imposition of military government.*

    Fortunately because Theresa May is sane neither is likely to happen.

    *We all know they won't of course. Ceuta proves that. The Spanish government are extremely selfish and self-righteous (cf. their appalling an illegal behaviour over their fishing fleets, which of course is especially damaging to Scotland) and don't care about looking corrupt, incompetent and inconsistent as long as their own people perceive them as patriotic. This may of course finally be common ground they have with Nicola Sturgeon.
    Not a chance , May will sell out Scotland yet again , Scotland will see the UK trade its fishing yet again or retain it all at Westminster. The Nasties will shaft us big time as always. Sooner we are out the better.
    Fishing is something I would be extremely surprised to see as common ground between Scotland and Spain. Of course, that doesn't mean it won't be a sellout at some point. However, I would have thought May will see fishing rights as a useless thing that can be comfortably thrown to Holyrood as thanks to the damage done to fish stocks over decades by the appalling mismanagement, complacency and greed inherent in the CFP there will probably be no fishing industry worth saving to look after.

    I'm afraid it was the quality of your government I was commenting on (although as a Welshman I can hardly criticise others for that)!
  • University to run Brexit therapy sessions for students

    Turns out triggering Article 50 is triggering

    The Cambridge University Students’ Union (CUSU) has announced it will be putting on a series of ‘Brexit therapy sessions’ to help students come to terms with Britain’s exit from the European Union.

    The sessions, which are free of charge, will take place every term throughout the two-year withdrawal process. They will include activities, events and discussion groups that aim to ‘ foster solidarity and celebrate the strengths and diversity of European culture, including music, art, literature and food.’

    As well as panel sessions and discussion groups, where students will be able to share and discuss their experiences of the Brexit process, the programme also includes more light hearted events, including concerts, taster evenings and socials. The first events scheduled for next term include a ‘Tango and Tapas’ night and the annual Eurovision song contest party hosted at the Cambridge Union.


    http://thetab.com/uk/cambridge/2017/04/01/university-run-brexit-therapy-sessions-students-91756
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    My understanding was that land was leased to us, not permanent?

    It's a difficult question either way and I'll sidestep as I don't know about that one, including what the locals wanted.
    Hong Kong island was sovereign territory of the UK. Most of the surrounding land was leased.
    Hong Kong Island was a non-viable state - no water, no power, no sewage management system. In the circumstances we did the best that we could do for them (although we should have extended visas in the way that Canada did)
    Yes all you rich tossers got your money out and abandoned the natives to their misery
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    kle4 said:

    Slightly mystifying why the PB Thatchurbators are so desperate to draw comparisons between Thatch & Sturgeon. In their customary cloth eared way when it comes to Scotland, do they think the voters (who still largely loathe Magrit) are going to suddenly turn away from the EssEnnPee in a fit of 1980s déjà vu?

    Thatcher makes people on all sides slightly hysterical.

    Personally I think the comparisons from photo framing and valid slogans is just an amusing trifle.
    You are not a tax avoiding Channel Islands based Tory bigot who hates Scotland though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164

    University to run Brexit therapy sessions for students

    Turns out triggering Article 50 is triggering

    The Cambridge University Students’ Union (CUSU) has announced it will be putting on a series of ‘Brexit therapy sessions’ to help students come to terms with Britain’s exit from the European Union.

    The sessions, which are free of charge, will take place every term throughout the two-year withdrawal process. They will include activities, events and discussion groups that aim to ‘ foster solidarity and celebrate the strengths and diversity of European culture, including music, art, literature and food.’

    As well as panel sessions and discussion groups, where students will be able to share and discuss their experiences of the Brexit process, the programme also includes more light hearted events, including concerts, taster evenings and socials. The first events scheduled for next term include a ‘Tango and Tapas’ night and the annual Eurovision song contest party hosted at the Cambridge Union.


    http://thetab.com/uk/cambridge/2017/04/01/university-run-brexit-therapy-sessions-students-91756

    Even as an April Fool, that's traumatic.

    So bad I've been triggered myself and will have to go shopping before my snowflake like tendencies lead me to melt in any increased heat.

    Have a nice weekend everyone.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    timmo said:

    Sean_F said:

    I would point out the 165 the Cons won in 1997 included North Norfolk and Westmorland and Lonsdale.

    The AB - CDE split has been very evident in my personal door-knocking here in South Cumbria. AB's seem to be content with Farron's words on Brexit - which they generally fear. CDEs talk of smashing the telly when his face comes on. That includes two families which used to have loads of Farron posters in their gardens.

    For the first time Farron's photo in a LD leaflet here is a vote loser.

    The LibDems desperately need to get themselves some policies, rather than rely on the discontent with the Brexit vote, which I suspect has a rather short shelf-life.
    I think the discontent will get them past the next election. The 21% who want Brexit overturned will gravitate to them.

    A 13% swing in Inner London would regain Bermondsey and Hornsey & Wood Green, and would suggest they could regain seats like Cambridge and Bristol West.
    And Kingston and Richmond..
    Mole valley is a distinct possibility for them as well
    Mole Valley ???

    LOL

    The Conservative majority in Mole Valley is over 46%. Even in 1997 it was 19%.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/molevalley/

    and it was Remain by only 5%:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016

    If Mole Valley is one of the LibDems best chances than the Conservatives really have little to fear from them.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,410
    kle4 said:

    @kle4 - Do you think we should have clung on to the part of Hong Kong that was permanent British territory? With the UK out of the EU, we are again faced with a similar question.

    My understanding was that land was leased to us, not permanent?

    It's a difficult question either way and I'll sidestep as I don't know enough about that one, including what the locals wanted.
    The Chinese never accepted either the UK sovereignty of HK Island or the lease on the New Territories as both those were extracted by force. They didn't distinguish between the sovereign territory and the leased territory.. What the locals wanted (and want) was of no ninterest to either the Chinese or the British (until we were already on the way out).

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    This would imply about 60 Conservative gains from Labour.

    Many would be seats that haven't voted Conservative for decades (eg Grimsby, Halifax, Hartlepool, NE Derbyshire, Stoke North and South). But, some ex-Conservative seats would remain Labour (eg Exeter, Crosby, Croydon North, Bristol West).
    But, let's say Corbyn is thrown overboard next year, and replaced.

    How much can a new Labour leader claw back in 2 years? All of it, so they're back to Milliband's position, or is the damage too great?

    That's the question I'm trying to assess in betting on this.
    There's been a long term trend of the working class moving rightwards and the middle class moving leftwards.

    There's another long term trend of urban areas moving leftwards and medium towns moving rightwards.

    So even if Labour does recover then medium sized working class areas will still be increasingly vulnerable.
    Any new leader would probably enjoy a honeymoon, given where they are now. The question is whether they can overcome/resolve the medium term threats Labour faces from its inability to respond to social and demographic change. Schultz appears to have made a start in Germany, but my instinct is that Labour doesn't currently have anyone in the front line with the necessary inspiration and skill. I am fairly sure that had Owen Smith won, within six months any honeymoon effect would have dissipated.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Joyous & Civic:
    malcolmg said:


    Now we have the pompous sneering establishment millionaire thinking he is funny.

    malcolmg said:


    You are not a tax avoiding Channel Islands based Tory bigot who hates Scotland though.

    malcolmg said:


    Hard to believe some of the fruitcakes on here, absolutely barking mad. The ignorance regarding Scotland is stupendous.

    malcolmg said:


    Little Englanders with their inferiority complexes to the fore this morning I see. Lost your butchers apron son.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Francois Fillon was last traded at 5.9 for next French president. Does anyone have any idea why? Have I missed a poll?
  • Francois Fillon was last traded at 5.9 for next French president. Does anyone have any idea why? Have I missed a poll?

    He's the French David Miliband.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883

    Francois Fillon was last traded at 5.9 for next French president. Does anyone have any idea why? Have I missed a poll?

    There was a poll showing Melenchon only 1% behind him and with all the momentum. Coming 4th wouldn't be a shock.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719

    Joyous & Civic:

    malcolmg said:


    Now we have the pompous sneering establishment millionaire thinking he is funny.

    malcolmg said:


    You are not a tax avoiding Channel Islands based Tory bigot who hates Scotland though.

    malcolmg said:


    Hard to believe some of the fruitcakes on here, absolutely barking mad. The ignorance regarding Scotland is stupendous.

    malcolmg said:


    Little Englanders with their inferiority complexes to the fore this morning I see. Lost your butchers apron son.

    You are welcome , someone has to be the voice of truth tough as it may be
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Francois Fillon was last traded at 5.9 for next French president. Does anyone have any idea why? Have I missed a poll?

    There was a poll showing Melenchon only 1% behind him and with all the momentum. Coming 4th wouldn't be a shock.
    Well quite. So not a 5/1 shot to win the whole thing.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    A beautifully written, eloquent piece on going from No to Yes.

    'Gcat says Yes'

    http://www.gcat.org.uk/blog/?p=1496


    n.b. PB Brexityoons, no need to waste time that could be used bellowing impotently into the void, or at the dastardly Spanish.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:



    How will the eu back them? With no legal right to the land, the most the eu could do is support Spain's requests for us to open a dialogue on the subject since even the Spanish cannot say we've stolen the place from It's rightful owner hence the treaty , and punish the Gibraltarians for not currently wanting to be part of Spain. How non imperialist of them.

    The eu is not about to tell a sovereign nation, the legal holders of a territory supported overwhelmingly by its citizens, that they must hand over its people to another state or it will punish those people. How malevolent do you think the eu is!?

    Spain are being quite selfish in using an eu wide negotiation to open an issue which has nothing to do with the others.

    IMO the inclusion of a Spanish veto over EU-Gibraltar relations in the EU's Draft Guidelines for Article 50 talks shows two things. Firstly that by leaving the EU we have traded real influence for notional sovereignty. What was previously a dispute between two EU members is now one between an EU member and outsider. The EU now sides with the remaining member and will ignore the one that has left. Secondly, the EU hasn't the slightest intention of allowing Gibraltar to derail the main deal with the UK. I doubt the UK does either.

    None of this means the EU will support a Spanish takeover of Gibraltar by force. That runs contrary to what it stands for.

    Spain only has a veto on any UK/EU deal being automatically applied to Gibraltar. All the EU will do from now on is have nothing to do with the whole issue. Once we are out, EU rules about free movement of goods, services, finance and people will no longer apply to Gibraltar, meaning Spain can choose to play silly buggers to its heart's content with no check.

    Mostly I think this is to clear the Gibraltar barnacle off the boat. The EU doesn't want Spain to come in at a late stage and say, we're not agreeing the Brexit deal until we get our way over Gibraltar. This separates the two issues, which is less good from Gibraltar's point of view. I doubt the UK government minds about that, as long as the Union flag keeps flying over the Rock.

    And edit. This is the price of Brexit. The UK government will trade away all sorts of interests to get the Brexit deal: UK fishermen (as always) and now Gibraltarians, banks and UK farmers.

    It's the will of the voters :-)

    How would you expect Gibraltarians to vote in a rerun of the 2002 referendum now we are leaving the EU?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    isam said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:



    How will the eu back them? With no legal right to the land, the most the eu could do is support Spain's requests for us to open a dialogue on the subject since even the Spanish cannot say we've stolen the place from It's rightful owner hence the treaty , and punish the Gibraltarians for not currently wanting to be part of Spain. How non imperialist of them.

    The eu is not about to tell a sovereign nation, the legal holders of a territory supported overwhelmingly by its citizens, that they must hand over its people to another state or it will punish those people. How malevolent do you think the eu is!?

    Spain are being quite selfish in using an eu wide negotiation to open an issue which has nothing to do with the others.

    IMO the inclusion of a Spanish veto over EU-Gibraltar relations in the EU's Draft Guidelines for Article 50 talks shows two things. Firstly that by leaving the EU we have traded real influence for notional sovereignty. What was previously a dispute between two EU members is now one between an EU member and outsider. The EU now sides with the remaining member and will ignore the one that has left. Secondly, the EU hasn't the slightest intention of allowing Gibraltar to derail the main deal with the UK. I doubt the UK does either.

    None of this means the EU will support a Spanish takeover of Gibraltar by force. That runs contrary to what it stands for.

    Spain only has a veto on any UK/EU deal being automatically applied to Gibraltar. All the EU will do from now on is have nothing to do with the whole issue. Once we are out, EU rules about free movement of goods, services, finance and people will no longer apply to Gibraltar, meaning Spain can choose to play silly buggers to its heart's content with no check.

    Mostly I think this is to clear the Gibraltar barnacle off the boat. The EU doesn't want Spain to come in at a late stage and say, we're not agreeing the Brexit deal until we get our way over Gibraltar. This separates the two issues, which is less good from Gibraltar's point of view. I doubt the UK government minds about that, as long as the Union flag keeps flying over the Rock.

    And edit. This is the price of Brexit. The UK government will trade away all sorts of interests to get the Brexit deal: UK fishermen (as always) and now Gibraltarians, banks and UK farmers.

    It's the will of the voters :-)

    How would you expect Gibraltarians to vote in a rerun of the 2002 referendum now we are leaving the EU?

    Same result, I imagine.

This discussion has been closed.