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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Multiplier Effect: Regional, Social and Brexit swing make
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Multiplier Effect: Regional, Social and Brexit swing make a bad story worse for Corbyn’s LAB
Writing a thread on why Labour might do even worse than headline polling figures suggest feels uncomfortably like kicking a man when he’s down. However, if that’s what’s happening then it needs reporting and interpreting; I am only the messenger. And it is happening. Poll after poll has reported differential swings across regions, social groups and Brexit alignment.
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Flynn twitter.
To cheer up the Remoaners:
https://twitter.com/ComedyCentralUK/status/847859783801737217
Scotland has more chance of winning the World Cup than it does of electing a Labour government.
In Scotland I expect Labour to do somewhat better in May than indicated, probably more mid teens than single figures, but this will be yet another fall from the top table. The good news, as David points out, is that in Westminster terms they have next to nothing to lose up here. The bad news is that it is very difficult to see a Labour government without a substantial Scottish contingent. I know Blair would have had a majority without Scotland but his Labour Party reached parts of the electorate that are completely out of sight now.
The wheel usually turns in politics and there is no doubt that Brexit is fraught with risk for a Conservative party now wholly committed to it but Labour are really playing with oblivion while they indulge themselves.
https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/706675944631566338?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=https://mediamatters.org/blog/2016/11/18/trump-national-security-adviser-michael-flynn-promoted-anti-semitic-tweet-and-diversity-white/214542
Fake news
George Osborne has reignited the row over his multiple business commitments after it emerged the former chancellor is planning to launch his own clothing line.
In a letter to the House of Commons authorities, seen by the Guardian, Osborne told the advisory committee on business appointments that his new fashion firm would design “high-quality, hi-visibility industrial garments aimed at the multitasking CEO”.
His ideal client, he said, would be someone who “takes note of fashion while taking care of business”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/01/by-georgio-osborne-takes-new-job-as-fashion-designer
The Five Eyes agreement, for those who do not know, is an intelligence-sharing alliance between the U.S., the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. And in case you didn't notice, the National Security Agency is closer to GCHQ than it is to the CIA. Rogers's comment was about "family." Trust me. I know. I've been to Bletchley Park, and I've headed both American agencies.
Gen. Michael Hayden is a former director of the CIA and the National Security Agency.
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/the-administration/325250-michael-hayden-us-intel-agencies-win-big-but-russia#.WN8la3sMkw0.twitter
The Lib Dems have an opportunity if they choose to pursue it.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/01/by-georgio-osborne-takes-new-job-as-fashion-designer
Any better ones out there?
Yet Labour are in crisis?
May not be a joke after all!
In 1924 they went down to 40 very abruptly - their leader lost his seat for the second time in seven years.
The next time they won more than sixty was in 2005 (excluding 1931 where the three factions together totalled 72).
Labour's right to exist is not God-given.
Not an April Fool's fan, to be honest. The idea that the nation's foremost jam enthusiast might be 15 points behind in the polls is crazy nonsense. Chairman Corbyn's universally popular!
LD 10.2 (+2.1)
The AB - CDE split has been very evident in my personal door-knocking here in South Cumbria. AB's seem to be content with Farron's words on Brexit - which they generally fear. CDEs talk of smashing the telly when his face comes on. That includes two families which used to have loads of Farron posters in their gardens.
For the first time Farron's photo in a LD leaflet here is a vote loser.
Mind you, it seems to be a quality that's gradually seeping from the English themselves.
And of course the new boundaries ...
A 13% swing in Inner London would regain Bermondsey and Hornsey & Wood Green, and would suggest they could regain seats like Cambridge and Bristol West.
That said, the Lib Dems are very strong campaigners, and their support is off the floor, albeit not by that much. One might expect them to outperform in seats that they held last time and where they were beaten by a very narrow margin and/or there was a decisive Remain vote. Hence Mr Herdson's passing reference to a good chance of LD gains from Con in London, and if the yellows can't get Cambridge back next time then they might as well pack up and go home.
Shome mishtake shorely.
The Lib Dem eurosausage approach will get them hardcore Remain types but also prevent many from seriously considering them. It's tactically useful and strategically inept.
Meanwhile, Labour doesn't have a serious non-Conservative rival in England/Wales. If it did, the party would be staring down the barrel of a space cannon. That absence, however, means they're still going to be in a position to rebuild even if they have a terrible 2020 election.
Edited extra bit: 'eurosausage' reminds me - perhaps a good definition of an era-defining event (such as leaving the EU) is something that makes an episode of Yes (Prime) Minister look out of date?
I think the young will be tempted by the Greens, the nationalists by PC and the SNP, while Jezza's inner city BAME vote will essentially hold, especially the Muslim segment.
How many Euro super Enthusiast, overwhelmingly white, middle class, 40+, pro UK, Tory coalition forgiving voters are there to go around?
Theresa May is pursuing the right political strategy for the Conservatives.
And it's working.
Labour's dire polling with the over 65s.
That's pressaging an ELE for Labour.
How much can a new Labour leader claw back in 2 years? All of it, so they're back to Milliband's position, or is the damage too great?
That's the question I'm trying to assess in betting on this.
They have no god given right to exist, but they wont go anywhere and disappear either unless Someone makes them. They won't split, and no one else currently reaches them in so many areas.
For the LibDems in particular it doesn't really work - the 2015 absolute loss of votes in most of their 2010 won seats was larger than the total votes they had to lose in the first place in very many locations, and it is reasonable to suggest that the reverse will be true during recovery. Modelling the LibDem vote is also complicated by the existence of tactical voting, and it isn't clear how powerful (and in which directions!) that might be in 2020. Thirdly the LibDems depend more than the other parties on an effective local organisation to beat FPTnP and turn potential victory into an actual win; my sense is that many former LibDem seats are rebuilding effectively and raring to go, but there are inevitably some where the previous MP has retired and the organisation isn't what it once was.
Mole valley is a distinct possibility for them as well
Article 50 Notice is served. We are leaving. The LibDems will be painted as Rejoiners - having the UK grasp the ankles and assume the position on the Euro, free movement, ever greater union, an EU army, standardised tax rates....
Take 1997 for example. The Tories actually went into the election with a growing economy and rather good economic competence ratings. It wasn't enough to stave off disaster but how much worse would the disaster have been if Ken Clarke had the economic competence ratings of John McDonnell for instance?
I'd suggest Canada 1993 as the better example of a parties floor.
I don't understand your self-hatred.
Sorry you couldn't make it on Wednesday - hope you had a good bash!
Whilst I'm thinking about this, Welsh-only polling isn't conducted very often but surveys are made from time to time. Seat projections based on the most recent Welsh Barometer poll suggested almost no change assuming an election takes place on the existing boundaries - presumably because most Labour seats are low size, low turnout constituencies in the South where the Tories are still largely weak, and where Labour is defending very large percentage majorities.
However, based on these polling numbers AND the revised boundaries, Labour's advantage over the Conservatives is cut to three seats (14 vs 11.) If realised, such a result would also represent the first time that Labour had failed to win an absolute majority of all MPs returned from Wales since 1931.
It becomes a big tax raising manifesto, slash, suicide note.
In this day and age most of us by far would not support empire. But for places like that, anti imperialists tend to forget they've already won, and act like we still hold any places by force. It's absurd. Does Spain have a god given right to rule the entire peninsula? Portugal would be surprised by that. Who decided all areas must be ruled by the most local state? How local does that need to be? What administrative units are allowed to stand o their own? Shoukd the baltics be run by the nearest local state, they are very small after all.
Ranting about empire makes for good fun, but we do t really have one anymore to rant against, and even if we do, reducing the issues down so simply raises all sorts of complicated issues with implications for all countries, from France and Spain with their territories, to the USA and Mexico to South American borders and so many more.
It's a difficult question either way and I'll sidestep as I don't know enough about that one, including what the locals wanted. At the least the Gibraltar situation is hundreds of years older, which regrettably has to be a factor. Someone was saying yesterday that it was moorish as long as it was Spanish, which further undermines the idea Spain must be the more appropriate state if true.
Unfortunately, a sizeable chunk of the Scottish Nationalist core vote are also nasty little blood and soil bigots who think that Bannockburn happened yesterday, and would rejoice if England and everyone in it were obliterated by a giant asteroid.
Hence the "my enemy's enemy is my friend" logic, which extends to whoops of joy when 32,000 Gibraltarians are picked on by 47 million Spaniards - yet again. Any excess is justified so long as it upsets the hated oppressors.
Once we have left that is no longer the case. Re-joining then will be a genuinely radical change and staying out will be simply the status quo.
We should not leave is a much easier position to sell than having recently left we now need to rejoin.