Leavers arguing that economics will trump politics and force the EU to do a deal mysteriously ignore the fact that politics trumped economics in the referendum.
The Leavers were very much voting with economics in mind.
The cost of housing, wage growth, the flow of trade, welfare spending, the euro-tax.
Anyone voting to Remain for 'more influence' or 'a seat at the table' was not thinking about economics at all.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.
We don't have a weak hand, we have a strong hand. If the world goes tits up then the UK will be the UK. The EU on the other hand is incredibly fragile. Our need for a good(ish) deal though is far greater than the need of the EU. The economics matter to us and the politics to them.
Leavers arguing that economics will trump politics and force the EU to do a deal mysteriously ignore the fact that politics trumped economics in the referendum.
The Leavers were very much voting with economics in mind.
The cost of housing, wage growth, the flow of trade, welfare spending, the euro-tax.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.
We don't have a weak hand, we have a strong hand. If the world goes tits up then the UK will be the UK. The EU on the other hand is incredibly fragile. Our need for a good(ish) deal though is far greater than the need of the EU. The economics matter to us and the politics to them.
Leavers arguing that economics will trump politics and force the EU to do a deal mysteriously ignore the fact that politics trumped economics in the referendum.
The Leavers were very much voting with economics in mind.
The cost of housing, wage growth, the flow of trade, welfare spending, the euro-tax.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.
We don't have a weak hand, we have a strong hand. If the world goes tits up then the UK will be the UK. The EU on the other hand is incredibly fragile. Our need for a good(ish) deal though is far greater than the need of the EU. The economics matter to us and the politics to them.
Leavers arguing that economics will trump politics and force the EU to do a deal mysteriously ignore the fact that politics trumped economics in the referendum.
The Leavers were very much voting with economics in mind.
The cost of housing, wage growth, the flow of trade, welfare spending, the euro-tax.
You are wrong. It was all about feelings.
Please stop talking bollocks. You are trying, and failing, to get inside the heads of people you obviously do not understand.
Leavers arguing that economics will trump politics and force the EU to do a deal mysteriously ignore the fact that politics trumped economics in the referendum.
The Leavers were very much voting with economics in mind.
The cost of housing, wage growth, the flow of trade, welfare spending, the euro-tax.
Leavers arguing that economics will trump politics and force the EU to do a deal mysteriously ignore the fact that politics trumped economics in the referendum.
The Leavers were very much voting with economics in mind.
The cost of housing, wage growth, the flow of trade, welfare spending, the euro-tax.
Leavers arguing that economics will trump politics and force the EU to do a deal mysteriously ignore the fact that politics trumped economics in the referendum.
The Leavers were very much voting with economics in mind.
The cost of housing, wage growth, the flow of trade, welfare spending, the euro-tax.
You are wrong. It was all about feelings.
emotion beats logic
your logic says 27 states will act as one for a demos they dont value, emotion says they wont
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.
We don't have a weak hand, we have a strong hand. If the world goes tits up then the UK will be the UK. The EU on the other hand is incredibly fragile. Our need for a good(ish) deal though is far greater than the need of the EU. The economics matter to us and the politics to them.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.
We don't have a weak hand, we have a strong hand. If the world goes tits up then the UK will be the UK. The EU on the other hand is incredibly fragile. Our need for a good(ish) deal though is far greater than the need of the EU. The economics matter to us and the politics to them.
Dream on. You are living in fantasy land.
Any spouses divorcing a diehard Leaver look well set to clean-up !
I've had a long and difficult day so will swerve Mortimer's "do" this evening but hope it goes well for all attending.
As for Britain, since Messina it has been clear we have never truly belonged. Some, from Heath to Blair and even Cameron have tried laudably to make the connection but the Anglo-Saxon historical, cultural, social, political and economic identity isn't that of mainland Europe or even Scandinavia. We are different - there's nothing wrong with that, it's simply the truth.
For the future, the line from May, as much driven by political necessity as reality, is a woeful cliché montage of unity and unrealistic expectation. As Mr Mercury might have opined "we want it all and we want it in 2019". At the moment, anyone and everyone can vest their expectations in May - she is saying the only thing she can, that it will be all right and we will get what we want. The image of her signing at the desk looked more like a politician signing an instrument of surrender but of course it's not that.
Managing the totality of expectation isn't going to be easy - in a way the route the country has followed since Suez has reached a dead end. What is to be our place in the world - what do we want it to be ? I've no desire to live in a low-tax, unregulated sweat shop prostituting myself for any rich foreigner who wants somewhere to live or someone to serve them coffee or cut their hair or chauffeur them around London (or whatever).
As an internationalist, I believe we have much to offer but not as a glorified theme park. The post-EU world has to work for us in terms of making Britain a great place to live for the British in terms of jobs, homes, transport and a raft of other things. Safeguarding the rights of the poorest to welfare, decent jobs, pay, holidays and healthcare is for me paramount and that is from where A50 should be starting.
@stodge: Interesting post, but I couldn't disagree more about our identity. I do feel European and particularly in relation to the Nordic and Central European countries. I don't feel the same identity with the USA which is culturally very different. This is a sad day for me.
You highlight how the single market has harmed many across Europe, and I don't entirely disagree. However I'd love to hear how you think your vote for leave will change for the better the kinds of affected communities in the UK with which we are all familiar. Your last paragraph is a pipe dream whilst our country remains wedded to backward looking little England mentality (blame the weak, rather than blame those in power) purveyed by the main newspapers, and which results in Government that directly undermines these communities, the same communities over which the concern trolls on here who vote thus shed so many crocodile tears. How do you see that changing? You're going to end up with the low tax low benefit outcome you claim to want to avoid.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.
We don't have a weak hand, we have a strong hand. If the world goes tits up then the UK will be the UK. The EU on the other hand is incredibly fragile. Our need for a good(ish) deal though is far greater than the need of the EU. The economics matter to us and the politics to them.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.
We don't have a weak hand, we have a strong hand. If the world goes tits up then the UK will be the UK. The EU on the other hand is incredibly fragile. Our need for a good(ish) deal though is far greater than the need of the EU. The economics matter to us and the politics to them.
Fake news consistent to Faisal Islam - selective quote from Merkel which went on to say she hoped they would turn to trade soon
Even if her comments were, as MD suggests, over-egged, 'turn to trade soon' as you put it is still afterwards, so would be a rejection of a parallel discussion.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.
We don't have a weak hand, we have a strong hand. If the world goes tits up then the UK will be the UK. The EU on the other hand is incredibly fragile. Our need for a good(ish) deal though is far greater than the need of the EU. The economics matter to us and the politics to them.
Dream on. You are living in fantasy land.
Any spouses divorcing a diehard Leaver look well set to clean-up !
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.
We have a weaker hand, not a weak hand.
I was interested in a statement I read the other day that the UK would need to pay contributions towards programmes they'd voted for in the EU parliament. I quite agree that the UK should pay what it really does owe.
But does this mean that, for the next 2 years, all UK MEPs will be well advised to vote against any measures with money-spending implications, unless they actively wish to hand the UK a bigger bill?
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.
We don't have a weak hand, we have a strong hand. If the world goes tits up then the UK will be the UK. The EU on the other hand is incredibly fragile. Our need for a good(ish) deal though is far greater than the need of the EU. The economics matter to us and the politics to them.
Dream on. You are living in fantasy land.
Spoken like a true lib dem.
Who, to be fair, do know more than most about living in fantasy lands.
Fake news consistent to Faisal Islam - selective quote from Merkel which went on to say she hoped they would turn to trade soon
Even if her comments were, as MD suggests, over-egged, 'turn to trade soon' as you put it is still afterwards, so would be a rejection of a parallel discussion.
The latest poll has Macron beating Le Pen 60/40 in the final round.
I know the populist right is meant to be crashing all over Europe, Wilders came 8th, the Afd have become a knitting club, but that is a figure to make one pause.
Marine Le Pen, of the Front National, could get 40% of French votes in their presidential elections.
More is my guess. She's not her father, and she is saying things that make sense, and that people can get behind. Only a little above 40% mind. If pressed I'd say something like 42%.
If Macron wins, then fucks up, and the French economy continues to stagnate, and Muslim terror carries on, along with migration woes.... then I would expect Le Pen to actually win the NEXT French presidential election.
I still wouldn't count her out yet, the key number for me is not the 40% she'll get against Macron in round 2 , but the 46% against Fillon. That means 46% of French would vote for her against a weak mainstream candidate. If Macron comes a cropper in the final stages of the campaign she's within a whisker of victory. Macron rise reminds me of Cleggasm , let's see how he deals with the attacks on his internationlist , investment banking background. He's a very un-french candidate.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.
We have a weaker hand, not a weak hand.
I was interested in a statement I read the other day that the UK would need to pay contributions towards programmes they'd voted for in the EU parliament. I quite agree that the UK should pay what it really does owe.
But does this mean that, for the next 2 years, all UK MEPs will be well advised to vote against any measures with money-spending implications, unless they actively wish to hand the UK a bigger bill?
Good evening, everybody.
Good evening and good point. But abstaining as it's nowt to do wi us is surely the safer course - if we vote no we will lose, but we will have actively involved ourselves in the decision.
Fake news consistent to Faisal Islam - selective quote from Merkel which went on to say she hoped they would turn to trade soon
Even if her comments were, as MD suggests, over-egged, 'turn to trade soon' as you put it is still afterwards, so would be a rejection of a parallel discussion.
Listening to Sky, BBC and ITV throughout the day to my surprise the BBC have been fair and balanced.
Adam Boulton, Faisal Islam of Sky and Robert Peston of ITV both misquoting Merkel and both broadcasters having great difficulty in being balanced
Hope the BBC continue in this vein. Andrew Neil up in 10 minutes of BBC with his interview with TM.
The BBC doesn't rubbish the Government position. When the position changes it changes with it. It is and always has been the voice of the Establishment.
The latest poll has Macron beating Le Pen 60/40 in the final round.
I know the populist right is meant to be crashing all over Europe, Wilders came 8th, the Afd have become a knitting club, but that is a figure to make one pause.
Marine Le Pen, of the Front National, could get 40% of French votes in their presidential elections.
More is my guess. She's not her father, and she is saying things that make sense, and that people can get behind. Only a little above 40% mind. If pressed I'd say something like 42%.
If Macron wins, then fucks up, and the French economy continues to stagnate, and Muslim terror carries on, along with migration woes.... then I would expect Le Pen to actually win the NEXT French presidential election.
I still wouldn't count her out yet, the key number for me is not the 40% she'll get against Macron in round 2 , but the 46% against Fillon. That means 46% of French would vote for her against a weak mainstream candidate. If Macron comes a cropper in the final stages of the campaign she's within a whisker of victory. Macron rise reminds me of Cleggasm , let's see how he deals with the attacks on his internationlist , investment banking background. He's a very un-french candidate.
I would make three observations:
1. Only one opinion poll in the last month, by one pollster, has had MLP on 46%. Most show her 15 points or so behind.
2. Fillon is an incredibly damaged candidate, with multiple criminal cases against him.
3. If you look at actual elections in Europe over the last three years (Netherlands, France locals, Spain, Portugal), populist parties have tended to drop off pretty sharply in the last few weeks of the campaign. Now, MLP is a much better candidate than Geert (who was, let us be honest, a bit mad), but I think there is a bit of a tendency for people to 'like the message, worry about the messenger'. That means they'll say they support the PVV, for example, because it encourages the VVD to become more firm on immigration.
The latest poll has Macron beating Le Pen 60/40 in the final round.
I know the populist right is meant to be crashing all over Europe, Wilders came 8th, the Afd have become a knitting club, but that is a figure to make one pause.
Marine Le Pen, of the Front National, could get 40% of French votes in their presidential elections.
More is my guess. She's not her father, and she is saying things that make sense, and that people can get behind. Only a little above 40% mind. If pressed I'd say something like 42%.
If Macron wins, then fucks up, and the French economy continues to stagnate, and Muslim terror carries on, along with migration woes.... then I would expect Le Pen to actually win the NEXT French presidential election.
I still wouldn't count her out yet, the key number for me is not the 40% she'll get against Macron in round 2 , but the 46% against Fillon. That means 46% of French would vote for her against a weak mainstream candidate. If Macron comes a cropper in the final stages of the campaign she's within a whisker of victory. Macron rise reminds me of Cleggasm , let's see how he deals with the attacks on his internationlist , investment banking background. He's a very un-french candidate.
I would make three observations:
1. Only one opinion poll in the last month, by one pollster, has had MLP on 46%. Most show her 15 points or so behind.
2. Fillon is an incredibly damaged candidate, with multiple criminal cases against him.
3. If you look at actual elections in Europe over the last three years (Netherlands, France locals, Spain, Portugal), populist parties have tended to drop off pretty sharply in the last few weeks of the campaign. Now, MLP is a much better candidate than Geert (who was, let us be honest, a bit mad), but I think there is a bit of a tendency for people to 'like the message, worry about the messenger'. That means they'll say they support the PVV, for example, because it encourages the VVD to become more firm on immigration.
on the other hand macron is untried
he'll fold at the first CGT strike and then its five years of misery
The latest poll has Macron beating Le Pen 60/40 in the final round.
I know the populist right is meant to be crashing all over Europe, Wilders came 8th, the Afd have become a knitting club, but that is a figure to make one pause.
Marine Le Pen, of the Front National, could get 40% of French votes in their presidential elections.
More is my guess. She's not her father, and she is saying things that make sense, and that people can get behind. Only a little above 40% mind. If pressed I'd say something like 42%.
If Macron wins, then fucks up, and the French economy continues to stagnate, and Muslim terror carries on, along with migration woes.... then I would expect Le Pen to actually win the NEXT French presidential election.
I still wouldn't count her out yet, the key number for me is not the 40% she'll get against Macron in round 2 , but the 46% against Fillon. That means 46% of French would vote for her against a weak mainstream candidate. If Macron comes a cropper in the final stages of the campaign she's within a whisker of victory. Macron rise reminds me of Cleggasm , let's see how he deals with the attacks on his internationlist , investment banking background. He's a very un-french candidate.
I would make three observations:
1. Only one opinion poll in the last month, by one pollster, has had MLP on 46%. Most show her 15 points or so behind.
2. Fillon is an incredibly damaged candidate, with multiple criminal cases against him.
3. If you look at actual elections in Europe over the last three years (Netherlands, France locals, Spain, Portugal), populist parties have tended to drop off pretty sharply in the last few weeks of the campaign. Now, MLP is a much better candidate than Geert (who was, let us be honest, a bit mad), but I think there is a bit of a tendency for people to 'like the message, worry about the messenger'. That means they'll say they support the PVV, for example, because it encourages the VVD to become more firm on immigration.
And a fourth observation. If Fillon has done well enough to pass Macron in the first round, it'll mean he's generally polling better.
MLP's best hope - IMHO - would be for Hamon supporters to desert en mass for Melanchon.
Surely they realised before now that it's not only the UK contributions that will be going, but also the UK's support to stop EU spendthrifts? Poor Germany, they'll be robbed blind.
EU has made it clear that single market equals free movement.
Although it's just a 90s video he rather falters on logic.
He's by far the biggest fish in the Labour pool, but that's such an easy place to be. In my view only Yvette has bothered to retain the skills that will combat the Tories rather than other Labour members.
The latest poll has Macron beating Le Pen 60/40 in the final round.
I know the populist right is meant to be crashing all over Europe, Wilders came 8th, the Afd have become a knitting club, but that is a figure to make one pause.
Marine Le Pen, of the Front National, could get 40% of French votes in their presidential elections.
More is my guess. She's not her father, and she is saying things that make sense, and that people can get behind. Only a little above 40% mind. If pressed I'd say something like 42%.
If Macron wins, then fucks up, and the French economy continues to stagnate, and Muslim terror carries on, along with migration woes.... then I would expect Le Pen to actually win the NEXT French presidential election.
I still wouldn't count her out yet, the key number for me is not the 40% she'll get against Macron in round 2 , but the 46% against Fillon. That means 46% of French would vote for her against a weak mainstream candidate. If Macron comes a cropper in the final stages of the campaign she's within a whisker of victory. Macron rise reminds me of Cleggasm , let's see how he deals with the attacks on his internationlist , investment banking background. He's a very un-french candidate.
I would make three observations:
1. Only one opinion poll in the last month, by one pollster, has had MLP on 46%. Most show her 15 points or so behind.
2. Fillon is an incredibly damaged candidate, with multiple criminal cases against him.
3. If you look at actual elections in Europe over the last three years (Netherlands, France locals, Spain, Portugal), populist parties have tended to drop off pretty sharply in the last few weeks of the campaign. Now, MLP is a much better candidate than Geert (who was, let us be honest, a bit mad), but I think there is a bit of a tendency for people to 'like the message, worry about the messenger'. That means they'll say they support the PVV, for example, because it encourages the VVD to become more firm on immigration.
on the other hand macron is untried
he'll fold at the first CGT strike and then its five years of misery
It sometimes takes an untried politician to hold their nerve in situations like that. The experienced ones are too well-versed in compromise and doing deals.
The latest poll has Macron beating Le Pen 60/40 in the final round.
I know the populist right is meant to be crashing all over Europe, Wilders came 8th, the Afd have become a knitting club, but that is a figure to make one pause.
Marine Le Pen, of the Front National, could get 40% of French votes in their presidential elections.
More is my guess. She's not her father, and she is saying things that make sense, and that people can get behind. Only a little above 40% mind. If pressed I'd say something like 42%.
If Macron wins, then fucks up, and the French economy continues to stagnate, and Muslim terror carries on, along with migration woes.... then I would expect Le Pen to actually win the NEXT French presidential election.
I still wouldn't count her out yet, the key number for me is not the 40% she'll get against Macron in round 2 , but the 46% against Fillon. That means 46% of French would vote for her against a weak mainstream candidate. If Macron comes a cropper in the final stages of the campaign she's within a whisker of victory. Macron rise reminds me of Cleggasm , let's see how he deals with the attacks on his internationlist , investment banking background. He's a very un-french candidate.
I would make three observations:
1. Only one opinion poll in the last month, by one pollster, has had MLP on 46%. Most show her 15 points or so behind.
2. Fillon is an incredibly damaged candidate, with multiple criminal cases against him.
3. If you look at actual elections in Europe over the last three years (Netherlands, France locals, Spain, Portugal), populist parties have tended to drop off pretty sharply in the last few weeks of the campaign. Now, MLP is a much better candidate than Geert (who was, let us be honest, a bit mad), but I think there is a bit of a tendency for people to 'like the message, worry about the messenger'. That means they'll say they support the PVV, for example, because it encourages the VVD to become more firm on immigration.
on the other hand macron is untried
he'll fold at the first CGT strike and then its five years of misery
It sometimes takes an untried politician to hold their nerve in situations like that. The experienced ones are too well-versed in compromise and doing deals.
Listening to Sky, BBC and ITV throughout the day to my surprise the BBC have been fair and balanced.
Adam Boulton, Faisal Islam of Sky and Robert Peston of ITV both misquoting Merkel and both broadcasters having great difficulty in being balanced
Hope the BBC continue in this vein. Andrew Neil up in 10 minutes of BBC with his interview with TM.
Yes all credit to May been interviewed by Andrew Neil never remember Cameron doing the same.
She's doing pretty well so far, as you say fair play to her for sitting down with Neil on a day like today.
It's a bit dull really as a lot of this has been done to death and she's quite good at talking a lot without saying much at all. His interview with George Osborne was a lot more interesting as Osborne couldn't resist fighting back!
Listening to Sky, BBC and ITV throughout the day to my surprise the BBC have been fair and balanced.
Adam Boulton, Faisal Islam of Sky and Robert Peston of ITV both misquoting Merkel and both broadcasters having great difficulty in being balanced
Hope the BBC continue in this vein. Andrew Neil up in 10 minutes of BBC with his interview with TM.
Yes all credit to May been interviewed by Andrew Neil never remember Cameron doing the same.
She's doing pretty well so far, as you say fair play to her for sitting down with Neil on a day like today.
She was at the dispatch box today for 3 hours 11 minutes, the longest time by any PM and she answered 113 MP's even drawing complimentary thank you from Bercow.
1. Only one opinion poll in the last month, by one pollster, has had MLP on 46%. Most show her 15 points or so behind.
2. Fillon is an incredibly damaged candidate, with multiple criminal cases against him.
3. If you look at actual elections in Europe over the last three years (Netherlands, France locals, Spain, Portugal), populist parties have tended to drop off pretty sharply in the last few weeks of the campaign. Now, MLP is a much better candidate than Geert (who was, let us be honest, a bit mad), but I think there is a bit of a tendency for people to 'like the message, worry about the messenger'. That means they'll say they support the PVV, for example, because it encourages the VVD to become more firm on immigration.
I think point 2 is the most crucial factor. There is only one polling company that has put Fillon above 18% since the tv debate. That poll is Opinionway which has been consistently over-rating Fillon by a couple of points compared to most of the other polls.
He has lost about 8 points since the scandal hit in Jnauary. In two months he has not clawed any of that back, in fact if anything he is still losing a little support. If he has not improved at all in the past two months, due to the charges against him, why does anyone think he is likely to gain enough support over the next 25 days to overtake Macron or Le Pen? I cannot understand why he is not in double figures in the betting.
The only way I see Fillon making the final is in the unlikely event of Macron slipping below 20%, THEN he might have a chance of making round 2 and THEN Le Pen might have a chance in the final round, because Fillon will have qualified without actually gaining any support.
But the point you make in another post about Melenchon is well made. He is now only 3-4 points below Fillon and he has some sort of momentum, he could overtake Fillon and challenge for the final round if the left decide to vote tactically or if Hamon and Melenchon agree to fight under a united banner ( and there have been calls from the Communists and from Hamon today to make that happen)
1. Only one opinion poll in the last month, by one pollster, has had MLP on 46%. Most show her 15 points or so behind.
2. Fillon is an incredibly damaged candidate, with multiple criminal cases against him.
3. If you look at actual elections in Europe over the last three years (Netherlands, France locals, Spain, Portugal), populist parties have tended to drop off pretty sharply in the last few weeks of the campaign. Now, MLP is a much better candidate than Geert (who was, let us be honest, a bit mad), but I think there is a bit of a tendency for people to 'like the message, worry about the messenger'. That means they'll say they support the PVV, for example, because it encourages the VVD to become more firm on immigration.
I'm speculating that Macron could well become equally damaged in the final stages, the on-going rumours about his private life is just one example of a story which could explode , alongside his Rothschilds period.
Geert was just a complete lunatic, closed his campaign getting more and more extreme rather than trying to tone down the rhetoric to broaden his base. Le Pen is doing exactly the opposite.
Macron winning is still the strong favourite outcome , but it's fairly easy to see a path that leads to a Le Pen in the Elysee.
Listening to Sky, BBC and ITV throughout the day to my surprise the BBC have been fair and balanced.
Adam Boulton, Faisal Islam of Sky and Robert Peston of ITV both misquoting Merkel and both broadcasters having great difficulty in being balanced
Hope the BBC continue in this vein. Andrew Neil up in 10 minutes of BBC with his interview with TM.
Yes all credit to May been interviewed by Andrew Neil never remember Cameron doing the same.
She's doing pretty well so far, as you say fair play to her for sitting down with Neil on a day like today.
It's a bit dull really as a lot of this has been done to death and she's quite good at talking a lot without saying much at all. His interview with George Osborne was a lot more interesting as Osborne couldn't resist fighting back!
I'd imagine that this interview will reach a much wider audience than usually pay attention to politics, Mrs May isnt saying much that we've not heard before, but a lot of people will be hearing this for the first time today. She's much better than someone like Osborne at dealing with a more combative interview technique.
The context was different when Switzerland and Norway negotiated their bilaterals and the EEA as a way into the EU, compared with us leaving on not particularly good terms.the EU wants the deal with us to be materially inferior to the one we had as members, and at the same time for the remaining members not to be unnecessarily impacted. Beyond that they are not interested.
Any Leaver, as we all are as of this morning, who worries about the bigger picture will accept essentially every EU demand, because we want Brexit to be a "success", or at least damage limited. The negotiations will then be about the technical stuff, of which there is plenty.
Fake news consistent to Faisal Islam - selective quote from Merkel which went on to say she hoped they would turn to trade soon
I think the sequential vs parallel vs overlapping of issues is a total red herring. The real key is that there be no deal until there is the whole deal.
Comments
The cost of housing, wage growth, the flow of trade, welfare spending, the euro-tax.
Anyone voting to Remain for 'more influence' or 'a seat at the table' was not thinking about economics at all.
REMAIN 48%
your logic says 27 states will act as one for a demos they dont value, emotion says they wont
You highlight how the single market has harmed many across Europe, and I don't entirely disagree. However I'd love to hear how you think your vote for leave will change for the better the kinds of affected communities in the UK with which we are all familiar. Your last paragraph is a pipe dream whilst our country remains wedded to backward looking little England mentality (blame the weak, rather than blame those in power) purveyed by the main newspapers, and which results in Government that directly undermines these communities, the same communities over which the concern trolls on here who vote thus shed so many crocodile tears. How do you see that changing? You're going to end up with the low tax low benefit outcome you claim to want to avoid.
But does this mean that, for the next 2 years, all UK MEPs will be well advised to vote against any measures with money-spending implications, unless they actively wish to hand the UK a bigger bill?
Good evening, everybody.
http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/over-interpreting-merkel/
Adam Boulton, Faisal Islam of Sky and Robert Peston of ITV both misquoting Merkel and both broadcasters having great difficulty in being balanced
Hope the BBC continue in this vein. Andrew Neil up in 10 minutes of BBC with his interview with TM.
That means 46% of French would vote for her against a weak mainstream candidate.
If Macron comes a cropper in the final stages of the campaign she's within a whisker of victory. Macron rise reminds me of Cleggasm , let's see how he deals with the attacks on his internationlist , investment banking background. He's a very un-french candidate.
https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/847142070758256640
suddenly Germany can be outvoted by the Medlands
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/brexit/kommentar-deutschland-koennte-zum-hauptverlierer-des-brexits-werden-14946937.html
1. Only one opinion poll in the last month, by one pollster, has had MLP on 46%. Most show her 15 points or so behind.
2. Fillon is an incredibly damaged candidate, with multiple criminal cases against him.
3. If you look at actual elections in Europe over the last three years (Netherlands, France locals, Spain, Portugal), populist parties have tended to drop off pretty sharply in the last few weeks of the campaign. Now, MLP is a much better candidate than Geert (who was, let us be honest, a bit mad), but I think there is a bit of a tendency for people to 'like the message, worry about the messenger'. That means they'll say they support the PVV, for example, because it encourages the VVD to become more firm on immigration.
he'll fold at the first CGT strike and then its five years of misery
MLP's best hope - IMHO - would be for Hamon supporters to desert en mass for Melanchon.
He's by far the biggest fish in the Labour pool, but that's such an easy place to be. In my view only Yvette has bothered to retain the skills that will combat the Tories rather than other Labour members.
being twelfth means bugger all
He has lost about 8 points since the scandal hit in Jnauary. In two months he has not clawed any of that back, in fact if anything he is still losing a little support. If he has not improved at all in the past two months, due to the charges against him, why does anyone think he is likely to gain enough support over the next 25 days to overtake Macron or Le Pen? I cannot understand why he is not in double figures in the betting.
The only way I see Fillon making the final is in the unlikely event of Macron slipping below 20%, THEN he might have a chance of making round 2 and THEN Le Pen might have a chance in the final round, because Fillon will have qualified without actually gaining any support.
But the point you make in another post about Melenchon is well made. He is now only 3-4 points below Fillon and he has some sort of momentum, he could overtake Fillon and challenge for the final round if the left decide to vote tactically or if Hamon and Melenchon agree to fight under a united banner ( and there have been calls from the Communists and from Hamon today to make that happen)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017#Fillon.E2.80.93Le_Pen
I'm speculating that Macron could well become equally damaged in the final stages, the on-going rumours about his private life is just one example of a story which could explode , alongside his Rothschilds period.
Geert was just a complete lunatic, closed his campaign getting more and more extreme rather than trying to tone down the rhetoric to broaden his base. Le Pen is doing exactly the opposite.
Macron winning is still the strong favourite outcome , but it's fairly easy to see a path that leads to a Le Pen in the Elysee.
Any Leaver, as we all are as of this morning, who worries about the bigger picture will accept essentially every EU demand, because we want Brexit to be a "success", or at least damage limited. The negotiations will then be about the technical stuff, of which there is plenty.