So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
Depends on who you listen to.
Irish farmers, Dutch food processors, French and Spanish fishermen......
They will be at each other like rats in a sack before you know it.
We've thrown a very big cat among the pigeons.
CBI have been in constant touch with all their counterparts in Europe who all are demanding a trade deal. Economics will beat politics in the end
Today will have a paralysing effect on the EU as everytime an EU leader or prime minister holds a press conference, or is caught in the street, Brexit will be the only subject for journalists. I expect there could be some very grumpy EU officials on screens over the next 2 years plus
Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.
27 suited is about right
More like 57 suited. The EU probably has something like A9o.
People think our hand is better than it is because we're united and fairly close (suited), whereas the Eu is a large collection of countries (offsuit, unconnected).
Fundamentally we're alot smaller than them though.
Multiway we'd play ok - but this is a heads up match, we'll have to play very cute and need a fair bit of luck to extract a decent position.
James Forsyth @JGForsyth Merkel's comments not quite the blanket rejection of May's position that it is being portrayed as Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki People misinterpreting Merkel on parallel talks, she says "negotiations must first clarify how we will disentangle interlinked relationship"
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.
I've taken 2-7 offsuit all the way before. And lost with pocket aces. It's how you play, mixed with fortune.
I've very mixed feelings about today and although I voted LEAVE last year and am in no doubt it is the correct path for the country I am far from in a triumphalist frame of mind.
I consider the Single Market a disaster - it has sucked money and people from the impoverished periphery to a few areas of over-weaning economic power. Whether it be London, the Rhineland or other areas, the richer areas have got richer with the weight of people drawn to them while the peripheries have been depopulated and impoverished.
The Euro has similarly been catastrophic - had serious and rigorous criteria existed and been applied, a small number of northern European countries (Germany, Austria, Holland, Luxembourg, Finland perhaps) might have been well suited to joining an economic union (though they could have saved a lot of time and just called it the Mark or the Florin).
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.
Yes - our huge trade deficit with Germany is a real disadvantage to a trade deal...
James Forsyth @JGForsyth Merkel's comments not quite the blanket rejection of May's position that it is being portrayed as Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki People misinterpreting Merkel on parallel talks, she says "negotiations must first clarify how we will disentangle interlinked relationship"
In other words the political questions come first. Will, for example, Scotland's right to self-determination be respected?
James Forsyth @JGForsyth Merkel's comments not quite the blanket rejection of May's position that it is being portrayed as Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki People misinterpreting Merkel on parallel talks, she says "negotiations must first clarify how we will disentangle interlinked relationship"
In other words the political questions come first. Will, for example, Scotland's right to self-determination be respected?
Seriously, William - do you think Merkel gives a flying one about Scotland?
Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
Many of the things that they may have offered to Cameron are precisely the things that they may be forced to face up to anyway.
It's quite obvious that the EU will change, and in my view its likely to change in ways that mean it compromises on some of the big ideals - like free movement.
I think we'll (just about) be better outside the EU, but I'm absolutely sure that the EU will benefit from being forced to face up to these issues now rather than later.
James Forsyth @JGForsyth Merkel's comments not quite the blanket rejection of May's position that it is being portrayed as Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki People misinterpreting Merkel on parallel talks, she says "negotiations must first clarify how we will disentangle interlinked relationship"
In other words the political questions come first. Will, for example, Scotland's right to self-determination be respected?
They had a once in a generation opportunity to decide the matter two and a half years ago.....
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.
I've taken 2-7 offsuit all the way before. And lost with pocket aces. It's how you play, mixed with fortune.
Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
I thought Tusk for one, looked genuinely sad (almost in tears at one point) and I am very sure they realise they fucked up the negotiation with Cameron, and they now quite bitterly regret it.
As you say, a fairly modest offer on Free Movement (for instance: what the Germans themselves imposed on Eastern Europeans for years after the Accession) would have won the referendum for REMAIN, probably quite easily.
Brexit wasn't only Cameron's cock-up. The Europeans who negotiated with him are also culpable. And they must know it.
DavidMapstone @DavidMapstone An important point, often overlooked. Ray Bassett @ray_basssett sad day for Ireland as Brexit is triggered. Those in Irish Government who failed to assist Cameron in his re negotiation should be ashamed
James Forsyth @JGForsyth Merkel's comments not quite the blanket rejection of May's position that it is being portrayed as Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki People misinterpreting Merkel on parallel talks, she says "negotiations must first clarify how we will disentangle interlinked relationship"
In other words the political questions come first. Will, for example, Scotland's right to self-determination be respected?
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.
Even if so, if the EU is as noble as they claim to be, they won't take undue advantage out of that because of hurt feelings.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
Certainly not like we do - that's why we needed to be more open from this starting point than them, to show willing. We shall soon see if they mean to be reasonable or not in response.
Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
Many of the things that they may have offered to Cameron are precisely the things that they may be forced to face up to anyway.
It's quite obvious that the EU will change, and in my view its likely to change in ways that mean it compromises on some of the big ideals - like free movement.
I think we'll (just about) be better outside the EU, but I'm absolutely sure that the EU will benefit from being forced to face up to these issues now rather than later.
Freedom of movement was a perfectly sound idea in a grouping of 8 or 9 northern European countries with very similar standards of living and not a great tendency to move anyway. The expansion eastwards into much poorer countries was really the point for the rethink.
I think it is damaging for both. We have been irritated by excessive immigration into this country to the point we have left but economies in eastern Europe are losing a dangerously high percentage of their more able and skilled workforce. In the short term their remittances help but will their children be inclined to do the same?
The reluctance to face the economic consequences of this is just stupid. Just as California's draining of talent has resulted in many American states living in almost permanent depression so we have parts of Europe who are suffering something equivalent to the Black Death. If the EU had addressed this we would still be members.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.
I've taken 2-7 offsuit all the way before. And lost with pocket aces. It's how you play, mixed with fortune.
Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
Many of the things that they may have offered to Cameron are precisely the things that they may be forced to face up to anyway.
It's quite obvious that the EU will change, and in my view its likely to change in ways that mean it compromises on some of the big ideals - like free movement.
I think we'll (just about) be better outside the EU, but I'm absolutely sure that the EU will benefit from being forced to face up to these issues now rather than later.
Freedom of movement was a perfectly sound idea in a grouping of 8 or 9 northern European countries with very similar standards of living and not a great tendency to move anyway. The expansion eastwards into much poorer countries was really the point for the rethink.
I think it is damaging for both. We have been irritated by excessive immigration into this country to the point we have left but economies in eastern Europe are losing a dangerously high percentage of their more able and skilled workforce. In the short term their remittances help but will their children be inclined to do the same?
The reluctance to face the economic consequences of this is just stupid. Just as California's draining of talent has resulted in many American states living in almost permanent depression so we have parts of Europe who are suffering something equivalent to the Black Death. If the EU had addressed this we would still be members.
On the European issues I completely agree. (Don't know enough about the US to comment on what you say)
Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
If I were an EU bigwig I would be worrying today not about the UK per se but about the UK as the beginning of the end. We have all talked endlessly about the technical and procedural difficulties of just one country leaving. If the whole thing unwinds, an orderly and peaceful dissolution of EU and eurozone is not going to happen.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
It could get interesting very quickly if they say €60bn or no deal. TMay won't be able to accept it.
Talks will collapse, we could crash out to WTO by the summer.
Exciting times.
Being nasty to the UK isn't going to save the European Union.
Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
If I were an EU bigwig I would be worrying today not about the UK per se but about the UK as the beginning of the end. We have all talked endlessly about the technical and procedural difficulties of just one country leaving. If the whole thing unwinds, an orderly and peaceful dissolution of EU and eurozone is not going to happen.
I think the Greeks and the Italians (both of whom have the added complication of the Euro of course) will be watching very carefully to see if any of the UK disaster stories come to fruition. If they don't....
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
It could get interesting very quickly if they say €60bn or no deal. TMay won't be able to accept it.
Talks will collapse, we could crash out to WTO by the summer.
Exciting times.
Being nasty to the UK isn't going to save the European Union.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
It could get interesting very quickly if they say €60bn or no deal. TMay won't be able to accept it.
Talks will collapse, we could crash out to WTO by the summer.
Exciting times.
Being nasty to the UK isn't going to save the European Union.
The more they ask for in terms of compensation, the more its clear that the prior deal benefited them.
I suspect we will pay something - say GBP20bn - the main obvious thing is to cover pensions. I'll be quite interested to see what the EU plan to do with such a windfall - I bet it's not a rebate to the remaining EU taxpayers.
Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
Many of the things that they may have offered to Cameron are precisely the things that they may be forced to face up to anyway.
It's quite obvious that the EU will change, and in my view its likely to change in ways that mean it compromises on some of the big ideals - like free movement.
I think we'll (just about) be better outside the EU, but I'm absolutely sure that the EU will benefit from being forced to face up to these issues now rather than later.
Freedom of movement was a perfectly sound idea in a grouping of 8 or 9 northern European countries with very similar standards of living and not a great tendency to move anyway. The expansion eastwards into much poorer countries was really the point for the rethink.
I think it is damaging for both. We have been irritated by excessive immigration into this country to the point we have left but economies in eastern Europe are losing a dangerously high percentage of their more able and skilled workforce. In the short term their remittances help but will their children be inclined to do the same?
The reluctance to face the economic consequences of this is just stupid. Just as California's draining of talent has resulted in many American states living in almost permanent depression so we have parts of Europe who are suffering something equivalent to the Black Death. If the EU had addressed this we would still be members.
On the European issues I completely agree. (Don't know enough about the US to comment on what you say)
It's a very similar point to the one Stodge made so well downthread. Single markets have both winners and losers. And the winners tend to be the ones who are ahead at the starting gate.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
If I were an EU bigwig I would be worrying today not about the UK per se but about the UK as the beginning of the end. We have all talked endlessly about the technical and procedural difficulties of just one country leaving. If the whole thing unwinds, an orderly and peaceful dissolution of EU and eurozone is not going to happen.
The risks to both the EU and EZ have certainly risen.
If the non-EZ nations lose their blocking minority in the voting system they have seen their influence and control greatly diminished within Europe. They could, in effect, end up EFTA-ised.
The risk within the EZ is Ireland. It’s key trade relationships are west across the Atlantic and east across the Irish Sea. It finds itself, suddenly, in the same position as Britain has been but only more so, in that the majority of it’s trade is no longer going into the bloc it has surrendered significant influence to.
The latest poll has Macron beating Le Pen 60/40 in the final round.
I know the populist right is meant to be crashing all over Europe, Wilders came 8th, the Afd have become a knitting club, but that is a figure to make one pause.
Marine Le Pen, of the Front National, could get 40% of French votes in their presidential elections.
More is my guess. She's not her father, and she is saying things that make sense, and that people can get behind. Only a little above 40% mind. If pressed I'd say something like 42%.
Mr. Alistair, the Greens said they'd only back a referendum if a majority of Scots clearly wanted it. The SNP said a vote for them was not only not a vote for independence, it wasn't even a vote for a referendum.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
That depends, doesn't it? If they want to do a deal then they can't make the terms politically impossible for Mrs May to accept.
If they don't care if there's a deal or not, then you're right, of course.
"but hopefully soon anyway" doesn't quite count as "Merkel rejects May plan", does it?
No. It possibly means she wants the UK to agree it owes money, along with an agreement on the Irish border, and reciprocal rights for EU/UK citizens. Then the other talks can start.
We may not even have to specify the amount we owe: just agree we owe something, or give a ballpark figure, subject to further debate.
IF that is what Merkel means - and the EU concurs - then that could be done in weeks.
I think Barnier has said he wants the EU accountants to work out the precise figure - so agreement to principles would seem to be the issue - 100% to 29/3/19 - the haggle will be about the bit from then to the end of the 2020 budget.....
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.
I've taken 2-7 offsuit all the way before. And lost with pocket aces. It's how you play, mixed with fortune.
Fundamentally you always want bigger cards though
The UK is not Luxembourg. The EU stands to lose: security and military cooperation with major military power, £9bn net contributions per year, the liquidity of the City of London, access through the ports/airports of the global trading hub of London, foreign policy links to the US and Commonwealth, and a lot of free market expertise.
The EU economy is bigger, and what remains is more populous, but the UK in the event of "no deal" has a range of macroeconomic and fiscal options it can take to mitigate a hard exit domestically, and is even freer to act globally.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
I thought Tusk for one, looked genuinely sad (almost in tears at one point) and I am very sure they realise they fucked up the negotiation with Cameron, and they now quite bitterly regret it.
As you say, a fairly modest offer on Free Movement (for instance: what the Germans themselves imposed on Eastern Europeans for years after the Accession) would have won the referendum for REMAIN, probably quite easily.
Brexit wasn't only Cameron's cock-up. The Europeans who negotiated with him are also culpable. And they must know it.
It was EU arrogance at Cameron's negotiation bid and their dismissal of democratic reform in the EU that switched my voted from remain to leave.
EU leaders screwed up big time. Brexit was avoidable, their hubris made it happen.
Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
I thought Tusk for one, looked genuinely sad (almost in tears at one point) and I am very sure they realise they fucked up the negotiation with Cameron, and they now quite bitterly regret it.
As you say, a fairly modest offer on Free Movement (for instance: what the Germans themselves imposed on Eastern Europeans for years after the Accession) would have won the referendum for REMAIN, probably quite easily.
Brexit wasn't only Cameron's cock-up. The Europeans who negotiated with him are also culpable. And they must know it.
They are very emotional.
It just shows why we are leaving. The EU and the UK have drifted so far apart politically they simply can't understand one another.
"but hopefully soon anyway" doesn't quite count as "Merkel rejects May plan", does it?
No. It possibly means she wants the UK to agree it owes money, along with an agreement on the Irish border, and reciprocal rights for EU/UK citizens. Then the other talks can start.
We may not even have to specify the amount we owe: just agree we owe something, or give a ballpark figure, subject to further debate.
IF that is what Merkel means - and the EU concurs - then that could be done in weeks.
I think Barnier has said he wants the EU accountants to work out the precise figure - so agreement to principles would seem to be the issue - 100% to 29/3/19 - the haggle will be about the bit from then to the end of the 2020 budget.....
I'm no accountant, but I'm sure someone could work it out from this based upon either our share of the EU economy (16%), our share of the population (13%) or our share of the voting rights (8%).
Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
Many of the things that they may have offered to Cameron are precisely the things that they may be forced to face up to anyway.
It's quite obvious that the EU will change, and in my view its likely to change in ways that mean it compromises on some of the big ideals - like free movement.
I think we'll (just about) be better outside the EU, but I'm absolutely sure that the EU will benefit from being forced to face up to these issues now rather than later.
If the EU had any sense (it doesn't) it would have held an emergency summit, used the Brexit vote to trigger a major internal investigation, and "listened" to peoples right across Europe on reform.
It would then have re-engaged with the UK on the basis of Bloomberg and looked at reforming free movement, and returning some powers to member states, at a European Council for all.
Instead it has ideologically hunkered down: double or quits.
Mrs May position represents most of what the remaining Remainers want... free trade, friction-free borders, mutual guarantees for citizens, acceptance of EU standards, protection of workers' rights, etc. All she's asking for in return is the UK setting its own immigration policy, exit from the ECJ and the ability to trade with the rest of the world on our own terms. So why the wailing and gnashing of teeth? Have they read her statement today? Do they really believe Brexit will mean the repatriation of 4m EU citizens, taxes cut to a flat 10% and Bill Cash as Chancellor of the Exchequer?
I've very mixed feelings about today and although I voted LEAVE last year and am in no doubt it is the correct path for the country I am far from in a triumphalist frame of mind.
For all its many failings, the EU was no brutal tyranny and we were no subjugated province - most tyrannies don't have an A50 element - so talk of "freedom" is a shade overcooked.
I consider the Single Market a disaster - it has sucked money and people from the impoverished periphery to a few areas of over-weaning economic power. Whether it be London, the Rhineland or other areas, the richer areas have got richer with the weight of people drawn to them while the peripheries have been depopulated and impoverished.
The Euro has similarly been catastrophic - had serious and rigorous criteria existed and been applied, a small number of northern European countries (Germany, Austria, Holland, Luxembourg, Finland perhaps) might have been well suited to joining an economic union (though they could have saved a lot of time and just called it the Mark or the Florin).
As for Britain, since Messina it has been clear we have never truly belonged. Some, from Heath to Blair and even Cameron have tried laudably to make the connection but the Anglo-Saxon historical, cultural, social, political and economic identity isn't that of mainland Europe or even Scandinavia. We are different - there's nothing wrong with that, it's simply the truth.
For the future, the line from May, as much driven by political necessity as reality, is a woeful cliché montage of unity and unrealistic expectation. As Mr Mercury might have opined "we want it all and we want it in 2019". At the moment, anyone and everyone can vest their expectations in May - she is saying the only thing she can, that it will be all right and we will get what we want. The image of her signing at the desk looked more like a politician signing an instrument of surrender but of course it's not that.
Managing the totality of expectation isn't going to be easy - in a way the route the country has followed since Suez has reached a dead end. What is to be our place in the world - what do we want it to be ? I've no desire to live in a low-tax, unregulated sweat shop prostituting myself for any rich foreigner who wants somewhere to live or someone to serve them coffee or cut their hair or chauffeur them around London (or whatever).
As an internationalist, I believe we have much to offer but not as a glorified theme park. The post-EU world has to work for us in terms of making Britain a great place to live for the British in terms of jobs, homes, transport and a raft of other things. Safeguarding the rights of the poorest to welfare, decent jobs, pay, holidays and healthcare is for me paramount and that is from where A50 should be starting.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
It could get interesting very quickly if they say €60bn or no deal. TMay won't be able to accept it.
Talks will collapse, we could crash out to WTO by the summer.
Exciting times.
Being nasty to the UK isn't going to save the European Union.
The more they ask for in terms of compensation, the more its clear that the prior deal benefited them.
I suspect we will pay something - say GBP20bn - the main obvious thing is to cover pensions. I'll be quite interested to see what the EU plan to do with such a windfall - I bet it's not a rebate to the remaining EU taxpayers.
The latest poll has Macron beating Le Pen 60/40 in the final round.
I know the populist right is meant to be crashing all over Europe, Wilders came 8th, the Afd have become a knitting club, but that is a figure to make one pause.
Marine Le Pen, of the Front National, could get 40% of French votes in their presidential elections.
More is my guess. She's not her father, and she is saying things that make sense, and that people can get behind. Only a little above 40% mind. If pressed I'd say something like 42%.
If Macron wins, then fucks up, and the French economy continues to stagnate, and Muslim terror carries on, along with migration woes.... then I would expect Le Pen to actually win the NEXT French presidential election.
Maybe.
It's a bit like Farage being the acceptable face of UKIP. I strongly suspect that Farage actively dislikes most of his party. Le Pen won't be around in 2022 in my view.
Macron is (as far as I can see) a textbook economist, and that's really quite unfortunate given how textbook economics is faring just at the moment.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.
I've taken 2-7 offsuit all the way before. And lost with pocket aces. It's how you play, mixed with fortune.
Fundamentally you always want bigger cards though
The UK is not Luxembourg. The EU stands to lose: security and military cooperation with major military power, £9bn net contributions per year, the liquidity of the City of London, access through the ports/airports of the global trading hub of London, foreign policy links to the US and Commonwealth, and a lot of free market expertise.
The EU economy is bigger, and what remains is more populous, but the UK in the event of "no deal" has a range of macroeconomic and fiscal options it can take to mitigate a hard exit domestically, and is even freer to act globally.
You are in fantasy land. Get real. Read this from ConHome
Had some clown ring up claiming that there was a delay due to Brexit to the distribution of final dividend, and report of a major UK plc. Brexit providing an excuse or cover for a boiler house scammer.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
That depends, doesn't it? If they want to do a deal then they can't make the terms politically impossible for Mrs May to accept.
If they don't care if there's a deal or not, then you're right, of course.
Precisely.
I suspect EU unity may - perversely - fracture if they go too far down that road.
Not everyone wants to go down in the ship with Juncker, Verhofstadht and Tusk.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.
I've taken 2-7 offsuit all the way before. And lost with pocket aces. It's how you play, mixed with fortune.
Fundamentally you always want bigger cards though
The UK is not Luxembourg. The EU stands to lose: security and military cooperation with major military power, £9bn net contributions per year, the liquidity of the City of London, access through the ports/airports of the global trading hub of London, foreign policy links to the US and Commonwealth, and a lot of free market expertise.
The EU economy is bigger, and what remains is more populous, but the UK in the event of "no deal" has a range of macroeconomic and fiscal options it can take to mitigate a hard exit domestically, and is even freer to act globally.
You are in fantasy land. Get real. Read this from ConHome
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.
I've taken 2-7 offsuit all the way before. And lost with pocket aces. It's how you play, mixed with fortune.
Fundamentally you always want bigger cards though
The UK is not Luxembourg. The EU stands to lose: security and military cooperation with major military power, £9bn net contributions per year, the liquidity of the City of London, access through the ports/airports of the global trading hub of London, foreign policy links to the US and Commonwealth, and a lot of free market expertise.
The EU economy is bigger, and what remains is more populous, but the UK in the event of "no deal" has a range of macroeconomic and fiscal options it can take to mitigate a hard exit domestically, and is even freer to act globally.
You are in fantasy land. Get real. Read this from ConHome
Mr. Alistair, the Greens said they'd only back a referendum if a majority of Scots clearly wanted it. The SNP said a vote for them was not only not a vote for independence, it wasn't even a vote for a referendum.
No they didn't. To both of those statements.
Sturgeon said a 2015 Westminster vote was not a vote for independence, and it wasn't. The 2016 manifesto spelled out that they would push for IndyRef 2 if Brexit happened and Scotland had voted Remain.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.
I've taken 2-7 offsuit all the way before. And lost with pocket aces. It's how you play, mixed with fortune.
Fundamentally you always want bigger cards though
The UK is not Luxembourg. The EU stands to lose: security and military cooperation with major military power, £9bn net contributions per year, the liquidity of the City of London, access through the ports/airports of the global trading hub of London, foreign policy links to the US and Commonwealth, and a lot of free market expertise.
The EU economy is bigger, and what remains is more populous, but the UK in the event of "no deal" has a range of macroeconomic and fiscal options it can take to mitigate a hard exit domestically, and is even freer to act globally.
You are in fantasy land. Get real. Read this from ConHome
The latest poll has Macron beating Le Pen 60/40 in the final round.
I know the populist right is meant to be crashing all over Europe, Wilders came 8th, the Afd have become a knitting club, but that is a figure to make one pause.
Marine Le Pen, of the Front National, could get 40% of French votes in their presidential elections.
The mistake the centrists might make, again, would be to use the vagaries of the voting system to ignore a significant proportion of the population
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
I thought Tusk for one, looked genuinely sad (almost in tears at one point) and I am very sure they realise they fucked up the negotiation with Cameron, and they now quite bitterly regret it.
As you say, a fairly modest offer on Free Movement (for instance: what the Germans themselves imposed on Eastern Europeans for years after the Accession) would have won the referendum for REMAIN, probably quite easily.
Brexit wasn't only Cameron's cock-up. The Europeans who negotiated with him are also culpable. And they must know it.
Which makes the whole affair even more sad. Let's be brutally honest, the referendum was not about the EU, it was about immigration (for the majority who voted Leave). Mistakes were made by Cameron and the previous Labour administration on freedom of movement.
I think (and hope) the UK will prosper outside the EU - however not as well as what could be achieved within the EU.
Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
I thought Tusk for one, looked genuinely sad (almost in tears at one point) and I am very sure they realise they fucked up the negotiation with Cameron, and they now quite bitterly regret it.
As you say, a fairly modest offer on Free Movement (for instance: what the Germans themselves imposed on Eastern Europeans for years after the Accession) would have won the referendum for REMAIN, probably quite easily.
Brexit wasn't only Cameron's cock-up. The Europeans who negotiated with him are also culpable. And they must know it.
Which makes the whole affair even more sad. Let's be brutally honest, the referendum was not about the EU, it was about immigration (for the majority who voted Leave). Mistakes were made by Cameron and the previous Labour administration on freedom of movement.
I think (and hope) the UK will prosper outside the EU - however not as well as what could be achieved within the EU.
Well that's at least more reasoned that acting as though civilization is ending because of this choice. It might even end up being proven correct, though hopefully not.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
That depends, doesn't it? If they want to do a deal then they can't make the terms politically impossible for Mrs May to accept.
If they don't care if there's a deal or not, then you're right, of course.
Precisely.
I suspect EU unity may - perversely - fracture if they go too far down that road.
Not everyone wants to go down in the ship with Juncker, Verhofstadht and Tusk.
You only need one of the 27 to say no deal.Noel Edmunds might be better conducting the British game show.
Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
I thought Tusk for one, looked genuinely sad (almost in tears at one point) and I am very sure they realise they fucked up the negotiation with Cameron, and they now quite bitterly regret it.
As you say, a fairly modest offer on Free Movement (for instance: what the Germans themselves imposed on Eastern Europeans for years after the Accession) would have won the referendum for REMAIN, probably quite easily.
Brexit wasn't only Cameron's cock-up. The Europeans who negotiated with him are also culpable. And they must know it.
Which makes the whole affair even more sad. Let's be brutally honest, the referendum was not about the EU, it was about immigration (for the majority who voted Leave). Mistakes were made by Cameron and the previous Labour administration on freedom of movement.
I think (and hope) the UK will prosper outside the EU - however not as well as what could be achieved within the EU.
Was the UK really doing that well in the EU in the first place?
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
It could get interesting very quickly if they say €60bn or no deal. TMay won't be able to accept it.
Talks will collapse, we could crash out to WTO by the summer.
Exciting times.
Being nasty to the UK isn't going to save the European Union.
The more they ask for in terms of compensation, the more its clear that the prior deal benefited them.
I suspect we will pay something - say GBP20bn - the main obvious thing is to cover pensions. I'll be quite interested to see what the EU plan to do with such a windfall - I bet it's not a rebate to the remaining EU taxpayers.
Yes, £20bn is the figure I used last week.
It's also what I suggested in my blog last week. UK to pay into EU budget for four years from deal signing, starting at 80% of final year’s net payment, each subsequent year reducing to zero in 20% bites. [i.e. 8+6+4+2] http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/art-of-the-brexit-deal
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
I'd just pull out of the Baltic and offer Vlad a trade deal
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
I'd just pull out of the Baltic and offer Vlad a trade deal
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.
But we both want to reach a deal that minimises disruption, so there's that!
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.
We don't have a weak hand, we have a strong hand. If the world goes tits up then the UK will be the UK. The EU on the other hand is incredibly fragile. Our need for a good(ish) deal though is far greater than the need of the EU. The economics matter to us and the politics to them.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.
I have felt for a long time the UK should act to set up policed routes across the Middle East for would be immigrants to Europe, and safe transport across the Mediterranean.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.
We don't have a weak hand, we have a strong hand. If the world goes tits up then the UK will be the UK. The EU on the other hand is incredibly fragile. Our need for a good(ish) deal though is far greater than the need of the EU. The economics matter to us and the politics to them.
Leavers arguing that economics will trump politics and force the EU to do a deal mysteriously ignore the fact that politics trumped economics in the referendum.
So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Well they don't really need a deal.
I think they need to be careful.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are today
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
Very true Alan
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.
We don't have a weak hand, we have a strong hand. If the world goes tits up then the UK will be the UK. The EU on the other hand is incredibly fragile. Our need for a good(ish) deal though is far greater than the need of the EU. The economics matter to us and the politics to them.
Dream on. You are living in fantasy land.
Perhaps. I stand by what I said though. What do you disagree with?
Comments
https://twitter.com/chukaumunna/status/847115493966336005
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
People think our hand is better than it is because we're united and fairly close (suited), whereas the Eu is a large collection of countries (offsuit, unconnected).
Fundamentally we're alot smaller than them though.
Multiway we'd play ok - but this is a heads up match, we'll have to play very cute and need a fair bit of luck to extract a decent position.
James Forsyth @JGForsyth
Merkel's comments not quite the blanket rejection of May's position that it is being portrayed as
Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki
People misinterpreting Merkel on parallel talks, she says "negotiations must first clarify how we will disentangle interlinked relationship"
And lost with pocket aces.
It's how you play, mixed with fortune.
It's quite obvious that the EU will change, and in my view its likely to change in ways that mean it compromises on some of the big ideals - like free movement.
I think we'll (just about) be better outside the EU, but I'm absolutely sure that the EU will benefit from being forced to face up to these issues now rather than later.
DavidMapstone @DavidMapstone
An important point, often overlooked.
Ray Bassett @ray_basssett
sad day for Ireland as Brexit is triggered. Those in Irish Government who failed to assist Cameron in his re negotiation should be ashamed
I think it is damaging for both. We have been irritated by excessive immigration into this country to the point we have left but economies in eastern Europe are losing a dangerously high percentage of their more able and skilled workforce. In the short term their remittances help but will their children be inclined to do the same?
The reluctance to face the economic consequences of this is just stupid. Just as California's draining of talent has resulted in many American states living in almost permanent depression so we have parts of Europe who are suffering something equivalent to the Black Death. If the EU had addressed this we would still be members.
Seems like a Merkel statement - something for everyone but saying very little.
Pot Limit obviously.
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/847119139353382912
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
I suspect we will pay something - say GBP20bn - the main obvious thing is to cover pensions. I'll be quite interested to see what the EU plan to do with such a windfall - I bet it's not a rebate to the remaining EU taxpayers.
If the non-EZ nations lose their blocking minority in the voting system they have seen their influence and control greatly diminished within Europe. They could, in effect, end up EFTA-ised.
The risk within the EZ is Ireland. It’s key trade relationships are west across the Atlantic and east across the Irish Sea. It finds itself, suddenly, in the same position as Britain has been but only more so, in that the majority of it’s trade is no longer going into the bloc it has surrendered significant influence to.
If they don't care if there's a deal or not, then you're right, of course.
The EU economy is bigger, and what remains is more populous, but the UK in the event of "no deal" has a range of macroeconomic and fiscal options it can take to mitigate a hard exit domestically, and is even freer to act globally.
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
EU leaders screwed up big time. Brexit was avoidable, their hubris made it happen.
It just shows why we are leaving. The EU and the UK have drifted so far apart politically they simply can't understand one another.
Ok, call it Bavaria instead.
http://ec.europa.eu/budget/library/biblio/documents/2015/EU_AnnualAccounts2015_EN.pdf
It would then have re-engaged with the UK on the basis of Bloomberg and looked at reforming free movement, and returning some powers to member states, at a European Council for all.
Instead it has ideologically hunkered down: double or quits.
Do they really believe Brexit will mean the repatriation of 4m EU citizens, taxes cut to a flat 10% and Bill Cash as Chancellor of the Exchequer?
It's a bit like Farage being the acceptable face of UKIP. I strongly suspect that Farage actively dislikes most of his party. Le Pen won't be around in 2022 in my view.
Macron is (as far as I can see) a textbook economist, and that's really quite unfortunate given how textbook economics is faring just at the moment.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/10/garvan-walshe-the-government-is-making-the-same-five-strategic-mistakes-on-brexit-that-we-made-in-iraq.html
I suspect EU unity may - perversely - fracture if they go too far down that road.
Not everyone wants to go down in the ship with Juncker, Verhofstadht and Tusk.
https://twitter.com/stoviesplz/status/847123502163509250
That article is months out of date now, btw.
Any new UK-EU frontier border should be "in the Irish Sea and not in Ireland", he said.
Sturgeon said a 2015 Westminster vote was not a vote for independence, and it wasn't. The 2016 manifesto spelled out that they would push for IndyRef 2 if Brexit happened and Scotland had voted Remain.
CR is broadly right.
I think (and hope) the UK will prosper outside the EU - however not as well as what could be achieved within the EU.
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
I, for one, welcome our new lesbian overlords.
Overladies?
[It's due to come back to E4 next week, incidentally].
UK to pay into EU budget for four years from deal signing, starting at 80% of final year’s net payment, each subsequent year reducing to zero in 20% bites. [i.e. 8+6+4+2]
http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/art-of-the-brexit-deal
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit-explained/article-50-letter
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeeZx2GB9qs
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/847127641517895680
The LibDems would still have 8 MPs.
Oh, and best wishes for tonight's bash. Sorry not to be there, but I'm in Spain. While I still can!
PM on triggering Article 50: This is an historic moment from which there can be no turning back.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Number10gov/status/847135020393246720/video/1