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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At the last Gorton by-election the Tories, led by the visionar

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  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Lighting the blue touch paper.....

    The Government now realises the hardline stance went too far by bolstering the confidence of Brexit supporters with the “intention of creating chaos”, they say.

    In private, British officials are ready to discuss the UK remaining in the EU’s customs union as part of a transitional arrangement, one told the BBC.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-leave-eu-threat-no-deal-diplomats-uk-prime-minister-economic-damage-a7653296.html

    Quoting EU diplomats. Salt on standby....
    We will know soon enough.
    I do find it hard to imagine that we'd stay in the customs union though.
    Why not? We'd be out of the EU.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Lighting the blue touch paper.....

    The Government now realises the hardline stance went too far by bolstering the confidence of Brexit supporters with the “intention of creating chaos”, they say.

    In private, British officials are ready to discuss the UK remaining in the EU’s customs union as part of a transitional arrangement, one told the BBC.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-leave-eu-threat-no-deal-diplomats-uk-prime-minister-economic-damage-a7653296.html

    Quoting EU diplomats. Salt on standby....
    We will know soon enough.
    I do find it hard to imagine that we'd stay in the customs union though.
    Money talks. If business squeezes hard enough an accommodation will be found.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,661
    RobD said:

    Lighting the blue touch paper.....

    The Government now realises the hardline stance went too far by bolstering the confidence of Brexit supporters with the “intention of creating chaos”, they say.

    In private, British officials are ready to discuss the UK remaining in the EU’s customs union as part of a transitional arrangement, one told the BBC.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-leave-eu-threat-no-deal-diplomats-uk-prime-minister-economic-damage-a7653296.html

    Quoting EU diplomats. Salt on standby....
    There will be much speculation and counter speculation over the coming months.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,901
    edited March 2017
    HHemmelig said:

    Roger said:

    HHemmelig said:

    Roger said:

    FPT

    The most noticable difference the early days of Brexit will make is the complexity of the forms we will have to fill in. This morning I received something which is known as a W-8BEN-E which I understand relates to a small investment I have in the US. It is 10 pages long and a flavour can be seen from question 1 under the title 'status'.

    "Are you a non participating FFI including a limited FFI or an FFI related to a reporting IGA FFI other than a deemed compliant FFI participating FFI or exempt beneficial owner?"

    Imagine the 'Leavers' of Clackton Hartlipool and Stoke who require aids such as 'open other end' on the bottom of milk-bottles grappling with FORMS like this?

    Because once we are on our own this is going to be the norm. Years of non bureaucratic existance will be over. It'll be like dealing with the US every day

    As a staunch Remainer, may I say that this kind of condescending snobbery infuriates me. I cannot see how anyone could see it as anything other than totally counter-productive. It is one of the key reasons why we lost the referendum and have remained on the back foot ever since. Making fun of Leavers' supposed lack of intelligence whilst not even bothering to spell the towns correctly is rather ironic to say the least.
    Just my sense of humour. You don't have to get used to it
    Why do you feel the need to reinforce an already very dominant stereotype that all Remainers are condescending metropolitan snobs who know and care nothing for much of the country? Do you secretly want to be governed by a populist right wing government for the next 20 years? It's all very well saying "it's just my sense of humour" but, for example, you would find an equivalent joke playing on racial stereotypes beyond the pale.
    Though it's a joke I am seethingly angry with the people who put us in this state. I don't go along with the idea that you have to be nice towards people who you believe to be mean spirited which is how I see Brexiteers. I personally know very few and in the same way that I don't find 'metropolitan elite' offensive (I know what they mean) they shouldn't find 'small minded mean spirited nationalists' offensive. What part could you argue with?.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Lighting the blue touch paper.....

    The Government now realises the hardline stance went too far by bolstering the confidence of Brexit supporters with the “intention of creating chaos”, they say.

    In private, British officials are ready to discuss the UK remaining in the EU’s customs union as part of a transitional arrangement, one told the BBC.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-leave-eu-threat-no-deal-diplomats-uk-prime-minister-economic-damage-a7653296.html

    Betrayal!

    In the unlikely event that there is a coherent Brexit strategy, and this is it, it'd be entertaining seeing all the reverse ferreting Tessyphiles informing everyone this was what was intended all along.

    In any case, the guard dogs will be keeping Tessy right.

    https://twitter.com/paulnuttallukip/status/846644866570489856
    :D

    One of your better posts :)
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    The Morris Dancer Party has a simple and straightforward approach to resolve the customs union matter.

    As ever in British history, the correct answer is to invade France. The day after, following the surrender, we shall begin the conquest of the rest of Europe. Once this is complete, there will be no need for customs checks within our domains.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422

    RobD said:

    According to your table, Winston S Churchill was actually 578 votes short of winning and not 557 as stated.
    Btw why has Winston Churchill's middle initial been included and not those of the other candidates?

    To differentiate from *the* Winston Churchill I suspect.
    I thought THE Churchill was Winston Spencer Churchill, but on looking at Wikipedia it seems he was Sir Winston Leonard Spencer-Churchill.
    The Gorton one was his grandson https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winston_Churchill_(1940–2010)
    "The Churchill"? John Churchill says hello.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The natural law party candidate for Glasgow Maryhill in 1997 massively outperformed any other natural law party candidate in Glasgow with literally hundreds of votes.

    Her surname was Blair.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    edited March 2017
    Mr. Herdson, don't forget Mad Jack Churchill.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Churchill

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Alistair, a Natural Law party political is the first one I can remember (probably 1992). It featured yogic flying.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,422
    Cookie said:

    Inner south-east Manchester in the mid-to-late sixties was a different place to what it is now. There were many leafy middle-class areas (Fallowfield, Rusholme, Levenshulme) whose large houses have since been split up and multi-occupied; the student and Muslim vote in these areas has grown massively.
    For the culturally interested, ‘Rusholme Ruffians’ by the Smiths gives a snapshot of Manchester Gorton in the late sixties and early seventies; a once-grand area on the slide.

    There is presumably an equivalent gentrifying effect elsewhere, where other suburbs or small towns have become more middle-class (though not necessarily more Tory)?
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2017
    Transitional appears to be the key word. A period to permit reorganisation and implementation. A year, maybe two, synching with key dates in 2019 and 2020.

    There is a paper on Open Europe regarding this.

  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,271
    edited March 2017

    Mr. Herdson, don't forget Mad Jack Churchill.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Churchill

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Alistair, a Natural Law party political is the first one I can remember (probably 1992). It featured yogic flying.

    In Maryhill it was yogic deep frying.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    chestnut said:

    Transitional appears to be the key word. A period to permit reorganisation and implementation.

    There is a paper on Open Europe regarding this.

    Transition period = continued membership so I can't see it happening.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,661
    Sean_F said:

    Manchester Gorton (like most of Manchester City) was very different then. It had a much bigger Conservative-supporting middle class.

    The political geography has changed. There are very few urban inner city areas today, in England and Wales, where the Tories are competitive excepting places like the City of London.

    Some of that is due to social stratification - those same Conservative-supporters moving to the outer suburbs, home counties, and the new towns - and some is due to values shifts.

    Generally, Tory support is more working class today than it used to be, and being middle-class and homeowning is no longer a reliable predictor of Tory support, as it was in the 60s.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Lighting the blue touch paper.....

    The Government now realises the hardline stance went too far by bolstering the confidence of Brexit supporters with the “intention of creating chaos”, they say.

    In private, British officials are ready to discuss the UK remaining in the EU’s customs union as part of a transitional arrangement, one told the BBC.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-leave-eu-threat-no-deal-diplomats-uk-prime-minister-economic-damage-a7653296.html

    Betrayal!

    In the unlikely event that there is a coherent Brexit strategy, and this is it, it'd be entertaining seeing all the reverse ferreting Tessyphiles informing everyone this was what was intended all along.

    In any case, the guard dogs will be keeping Tessy right.

    To be fair if May's plan is to string along hard Brexiters for long enough that UKIP collapses as an electoral force for them to desert to before delivering soft Brexit that kills SNP Indy plans then delivers a monster majority Vs Corbyn Labour then she is a political genius.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Mr. Herdson, don't forget Mad Jack Churchill.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Churchill

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Alistair, a Natural Law party political is the first one I can remember (probably 1992). It featured yogic flying.

    In Maryhill it was yogic deep frying.
    It was Yoghurt Frying.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Mr. Herdson, don't forget Mad Jack Churchill.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Churchill

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Alistair, a Natural Law party political is the first one I can remember (probably 1992). It featured yogic flying.

    In Maryhill it was yogic deep frying.
    Note: if an Englishman had made this joke it would be racist.
  • Options
    RobCRobC Posts: 398
    "reverse ferreting Tessyphiles" lol - newbies to this site will have reason to think we speak in code too.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Divvie, single whip - a tai chi stance, or ice-cream preference :p
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Mr. Herdson, don't forget Mad Jack Churchill.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Churchill

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Alistair, a Natural Law party political is the first one I can remember (probably 1992). It featured yogic flying.

    Due to no one keeping a comprehensive online list of natural law party election results (shockingly) i can't easily check but i think she may have been the best performing NLP candidate nationally as well.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    TOPPING said:

    chestnut said:

    Transitional appears to be the key word. A period to permit reorganisation and implementation.

    There is a paper on Open Europe regarding this.

    Transition period = continued membership so I can't see it happening.
    I cannot paste links on my phone but the OE options paper is worth a read. It offers a range of alternatives without staying in THE Customs union.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited March 2017

    The Morris Dancer Party has a simple and straightforward approach to resolve the customs union matter.

    As ever in British history, the correct answer is to invade France.

    I thought you Brexiteers wanted to keep the continentals at arms length....

    Having said that, it is a little appreciated fact that whilst we are "Great Britain", "Little Britain" (Britannia Minor???) is actually Brittany

  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    Minor betting post - For those who bet on German elections, the first post-Saarland poll in Germany shows no significant impact - CDU and SPD still tied nationally:

    http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/

    Health warning: it's INSA, which tends to show CDU lower and AfD higher than everyone else.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    chestnut said:

    TOPPING said:

    chestnut said:

    Transitional appears to be the key word. A period to permit reorganisation and implementation.

    There is a paper on Open Europe regarding this.

    Transition period = continued membership so I can't see it happening.
    I cannot paste links on my phone but the OE options paper is worth a read. It offers a range of alternatives without staying in THE Customs union.
    Thanks will try to take a look.
  • Options
    HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    edited March 2017
    Roger

    "Though it's a joke I am seethingly angry with the people who put us in this state. I don't go along with the idea that you have to be nice towards people who you believe to be mean spirited which is how I see Brexiteers. I personally know very few and in the same way that I don't find 'metropolitan elite' offensive (I know what they mean) they shouldn't find 'small minded mean spirited nationalists' offensive. What part could you argue with?"

    It's a big mistake to tar everyone with the same brush. Many of those who voted Brexit do not fit your stereotype of hardline thick racists, in fact many may not have been all that bothered about the issue but simply made a choice between the two campaigns without thinking too much about it. Most Leave voters I know personally are kind, comfortably off and retired. Also do not tar whole towns with the same brush, even in places like Hartlepool and Clacton at least 30% voted to Remain. I imagine that minority do not like people such as yourself labelling residents of their town as ignorant thickos.
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    Lighting the blue touch paper.....

    The Government now realises the hardline stance went too far by bolstering the confidence of Brexit supporters with the “intention of creating chaos”, they say.

    In private, British officials are ready to discuss the UK remaining in the EU’s customs union as part of a transitional arrangement, one told the BBC.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-leave-eu-threat-no-deal-diplomats-uk-prime-minister-economic-damage-a7653296.html

    Betrayal!

    In the unlikely event that there is a coherent Brexit strategy, and this is it, it'd be entertaining seeing all the reverse ferreting Tessyphiles informing everyone this was what was intended all along.

    In any case, the guard dogs will be keeping Tessy right.

    https://twitter.com/paulnuttallukip/status/846644866570489856
    What breed of dog ? - a Cerberus !!
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Palmer, not betting on the German stuff, but still paying a bit of attention. Cheers for posting that.

    Mrs C, yes, at arm's length. Firearms and trebuchets. I must admit, I did already know about Little Britain.

    Mr. Urquhart, Ken Livingstone mentions Hitler as much as Vettel mentioned blue flags in 2016.

    Mr. C, newcomers will be delighted at the increased front end grip enjoyed by this year's F1 cars.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,505

    Cookie said:

    Inner south-east Manchester in the mid-to-late sixties was a different place to what it is now. There were many leafy middle-class areas (Fallowfield, Rusholme, Levenshulme) whose large houses have since been split up and multi-occupied; the student and Muslim vote in these areas has grown massively.
    For the culturally interested, ‘Rusholme Ruffians’ by the Smiths gives a snapshot of Manchester Gorton in the late sixties and early seventies; a once-grand area on the slide.

    There is presumably an equivalent gentrifying effect elsewhere, where other suburbs or small towns have become more middle-class (though not necessarily more Tory)?
    Yes, there was a lot of middle-class flight from inner Manchester, generally to new developments which simply didn't exist back then - the population of suburbs like Cheadle Hulme and Heald Green grew dramatically as the middle classes moved out of Manchester. The Tory vote of the southern fringes of GM grew correspondingly - these were fairly Tory areas to begin with, but supplied fewer seats.
    In terms of becoming more Tory, it's difficult to point to any examples in Greater Manchester: perhaps if you look at the Lancashire coalfield towns like Leigh, Astley and Boothstown they are a lot less Labour now than they were then. Better examples are in Cheshire - working class towns like Crewe, Nothwich and Winsford have become more Conservative without necessarily becoming any more middle class.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,177
    The UK side in the Brexit talks should declare at the outset that base zero is a clean break and adoption of WTO rules. This after all is the plainest implication of the referendum result. Any agreements beyond that will be a positive gain for both sides, and strong incentives would thereby be established for both sides to play the resulting positive sum game cooperatively.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,271
    calum said:

    Lighting the blue touch paper.....

    The Government now realises the hardline stance went too far by bolstering the confidence of Brexit supporters with the “intention of creating chaos”, they say.

    In private, British officials are ready to discuss the UK remaining in the EU’s customs union as part of a transitional arrangement, one told the BBC.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-leave-eu-threat-no-deal-diplomats-uk-prime-minister-economic-damage-a7653296.html

    Betrayal!

    In the unlikely event that there is a coherent Brexit strategy, and this is it, it'd be entertaining seeing all the reverse ferreting Tessyphiles informing everyone this was what was intended all along.

    In any case, the guard dogs will be keeping Tessy right.

    https://twitter.com/paulnuttallukip/status/846644866570489856
    What breed of dog ? - a Cerberus !!
    With the heads of Farage, Banks & Nuttall.
    Nuttall's would be the yappiest, most pointless one of course.

    I won the greyhound derby, me, I was Lassie's stunt double, me, I found the FA cup, me, etc.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    GIN1138 said:

    Morning comrades,

    So I see Theresa and Nicola have legs!!!!!!!!!!

    Who knew? Who knew? :open_mouth:

    ZZ Top?
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,715
    calum said:

    Lighting the blue touch paper.....

    The Government now realises the hardline stance went too far by bolstering the confidence of Brexit supporters with the “intention of creating chaos”, they say.

    In private, British officials are ready to discuss the UK remaining in the EU’s customs union as part of a transitional arrangement, one told the BBC.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-leave-eu-threat-no-deal-diplomats-uk-prime-minister-economic-damage-a7653296.html

    Betrayal!

    In the unlikely event that there is a coherent Brexit strategy, and this is it, it'd be entertaining seeing all the reverse ferreting Tessyphiles informing everyone this was what was intended all along.

    In any case, the guard dogs will be keeping Tessy right.

    https://twitter.com/paulnuttallukip/status/846644866570489856
    What breed of dog ? - a Cerberus !!
    Meanwhile the Lib Dems are a French Poodle!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    geoffw said:

    The UK side in the Brexit talks should declare at the outset that base zero is a clean break and adoption of WTO rules. This after all is the plainest implication of the referendum result. Any agreements beyond that will be a positive gain for both sides, and strong incentives would thereby be established for both sides to play the resulting positive sum game cooperatively.

    In case you hadn't noticed that was precisely what Theresa May tried to do with her Lancaster House speech. That position has already broken down before negotiations start.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cookie said:


    Yes, there was a lot of middle-class flight from inner Manchester, generally to new developments which simply didn't exist back then - the population of suburbs like Cheadle Hulme and Heald Green grew dramatically as the middle classes moved out of Manchester. The Tory vote of the southern fringes of GM grew correspondingly - these were fairly Tory areas to begin with, but supplied fewer seats.
    In terms of becoming more Tory, it's difficult to point to any examples in Greater Manchester: perhaps if you look at the Lancashire coalfield towns like Leigh, Astley and Boothstown they are a lot less Labour now than they were then. Better examples are in Cheshire - working class towns like Crewe, Nothwich and Winsford have become more Conservative without necessarily becoming any more middle class.

    Trafford is a good example. Inside the M60, it is solid labour, cross the M60 and it starts to get more tory and after a few miles further south you run into some Lib Dem territory (Village ward/Timperley) and then south of Broadheath it is Tory.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    edited March 2017
    calum said:

    Lighting the blue touch paper.....

    The Government now realises the hardline stance went too far by bolstering the confidence of Brexit supporters with the “intention of creating chaos”, they say.

    In private, British officials are ready to discuss the UK remaining in the EU’s customs union as part of a transitional arrangement, one told the BBC.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-theresa-may-leave-eu-threat-no-deal-diplomats-uk-prime-minister-economic-damage-a7653296.html

    Betrayal!

    In the unlikely event that there is a coherent Brexit strategy, and this is it, it'd be entertaining seeing all the reverse ferreting Tessyphiles informing everyone this was what was intended all along.

    In any case, the guard dogs will be keeping Tessy right.

    https://twitter.com/paulnuttallukip/status/846644866570489856
    What breed of dog ? - a Cerberus !!
    A cockerpoo...... A cock and, er, a bit shit....
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited March 2017

    For the benefit of Mr Eagles and other proud Yorkshire folk:

    http://www.nyll.org.uk/about/county-facts/

    Clearly, Middlesbrough is a small town in Yorkshire!

    One doesn't need to argue it from lieutenancies, but Yorkshire is a good example of a geographically-based identity that has for a time not corresponded exactly with local government areas. Hull was in Yorkshire even during the period of existence of the entity known as "Humberside". John Major made a similar point about Middlesex, which has existed for more than a thousand years and cannot be legislated out of existence. So regardless of what has been posited by at least one person here, Britain is a country and its character as such does not depend on when the UKoGB or the UKoGB&I or the UKoGB&NI were founded. Show me a person who says "If it's a country, tell me the date when it was founded", and I will show you someone who doesn't get the difference between a country and a political regime.

    Tip on arguing with such a person: ask them when New Zealand became independent :)
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited March 2017

    GIN1138 said:

    Morning comrades,

    So I see Theresa and Nicola have legs!!!!!!!!!!

    Who knew? Who knew? :open_mouth:

    Tomorrows headline: Women have legs - nation in shock
    Too late! And why am I thinking of what Gore Vidal said, that "One does not bring a measuring rod to Lilliput"?

    Mutton. Dressed up. Lamb.

    image
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,177

    geoffw said:

    The UK side in the Brexit talks should declare at the outset that base zero is a clean break and adoption of WTO rules. This after all is the plainest implication of the referendum result. Any agreements beyond that will be a positive gain for both sides, and strong incentives would thereby be established for both sides to play the resulting positive sum game cooperatively.

    In case you hadn't noticed that was precisely what Theresa May tried to do with her Lancaster House speech. That position has already broken down before negotiations start.
    It is indeed implied by "no deal is better than a bad deal", and that is still the position as far as I can see. And very sensible too. Both sides can obviously improve on that, and that is where the talks will go if they are conducted rationally.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    The UK side in the Brexit talks should declare at the outset that base zero is a clean break and adoption of WTO rules. This after all is the plainest implication of the referendum result. Any agreements beyond that will be a positive gain for both sides, and strong incentives would thereby be established for both sides to play the resulting positive sum game cooperatively.

    In case you hadn't noticed that was precisely what Theresa May tried to do with her Lancaster House speech. That position has already broken down before negotiations start.
    It is indeed implied by "no deal is better than a bad deal", and that is still the position as far as I can see. And very sensible too. Both sides can obviously improve on that, and that is where the talks will go if they are conducted rationally.
    But "no deal is better than a bad deal" is a fiction. The question is whether it is rational for either side to pretend that it isn't.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2017

    geoffw said:

    The UK side in the Brexit talks should declare at the outset that base zero is a clean break and adoption of WTO rules. This after all is the plainest implication of the referendum result. Any agreements beyond that will be a positive gain for both sides, and strong incentives would thereby be established for both sides to play the resulting positive sum game cooperatively.

    In case you hadn't noticed that was precisely what Theresa May tried to do with her Lancaster House speech. That position has already broken down before negotiations start.
    It has been strongly articulated by Barnier and a growing number of EU states that a deal needs to be done.

    It seems more like people realising that they are best served by being sensible and constructive.

    The models for the deal all exist. It's just a case of plumping for the ones that meet both sides political and social requirements whilst minimising the economic impact.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,661
    Roger said:

    HHemmelig said:

    Roger said:

    HHemmelig said:

    Roger said:

    FPT

    The most noticable difference the early days of Brexit will make is the complexity of the forms we will have to fill in. This morning I received something which is known as a W-8BEN-E which I understand relates to a small investment I have in the US. It is 10 pages long and a flavour can be seen from question 1 under the title 'status'.

    "Are you a non participating FFI including a limited FFI or an FFI related to a reporting IGA FFI other than a deemed compliant FFI participating FFI or exempt beneficial owner?"

    Imagine the 'Leavers' of Clackton Hartlipool and Stoke who require aids such as 'open other end' on the bottom of milk-bottles grappling with FORMS like this?

    Because once we are on our own this is going to be the norm. Years of non bureaucratic existance will be over. It'll be like dealing with the US every day

    As a staunch Remainer, may I say that this kind of condescending snobbery infuriates me. I cannot see how anyone could see it as anything other than totally counter-productive. It is one of the key reasons why we lost the referendum and have remained on the back foot ever since. Making fun of Leavers' supposed lack of intelligence whilst not even bothering to spell the towns correctly is rather ironic to say the least.
    Just my sense of humour. You don't have to get used to it
    Why do you feel the need to reinforce an already very dominant stereotype that all Remainers are condescending metropolitan snobs who know and care nothing for much of the country? Do you secretly want to be governed by a populist right wing government for the next 20 years? It's all very well saying "it's just my sense of humour" but, for example, you would find an equivalent joke playing on racial stereotypes beyond the pale.
    Though it's a joke I am seethingly angry with the people who put us in this state. I don't go along with the idea that you have to be nice towards people who you believe to be mean spirited which is how I see Brexiteers. I personally know very few and in the same way that I don't find 'metropolitan elite' offensive (I know what they mean) they shouldn't find 'small minded mean spirited nationalists' offensive. What part could you argue with?.
    If you knew some you might hold fewer prejudices toward them.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    The UK side in the Brexit talks should declare at the outset that base zero is a clean break and adoption of WTO rules. This after all is the plainest implication of the referendum result. Any agreements beyond that will be a positive gain for both sides, and strong incentives would thereby be established for both sides to play the resulting positive sum game cooperatively.

    In case you hadn't noticed that was precisely what Theresa May tried to do with her Lancaster House speech. That position has already broken down before negotiations start.
    It is indeed implied by "no deal is better than a bad deal", and that is still the position as far as I can see. And very sensible too. Both sides can obviously improve on that, and that is where the talks will go if they are conducted rationally.
    But "no deal is better than a bad deal" is a fiction. The question is whether it is rational for either side to pretend that it isn't.
    Says who? If the bad deal involved the UK forking over £100bn/year, would that be better than no deal?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    The Guardian going into complete melt-down over the Mail front page is hilarious.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262

    The Guardian going into complete melt-down over the Mail front page is hilarious.

    "Disgusted of Islington"?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    The Guardian going into complete melt-down over the Mail front page is hilarious.

    Hah, they even have a live blog dedicated to it. Utterly ridiculous.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205

    The Guardian going into complete melt-down over the Mail front page is hilarious.

    "No 10 refuses to criticise Mail's sexist "Legs-it" coverage"

    More like No 10 couldn't give a toss!
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,177

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    The UK side in the Brexit talks should declare at the outset that base zero is a clean break and adoption of WTO rules. This after all is the plainest implication of the referendum result. Any agreements beyond that will be a positive gain for both sides, and strong incentives would thereby be established for both sides to play the resulting positive sum game cooperatively.

    In case you hadn't noticed that was precisely what Theresa May tried to do with her Lancaster House speech. That position has already broken down before negotiations start.
    It is indeed implied by "no deal is better than a bad deal", and that is still the position as far as I can see. And very sensible too. Both sides can obviously improve on that, and that is where the talks will go if they are conducted rationally.
    But "no deal is better than a bad deal" is a fiction. The question is whether it is rational for either side to pretend that it isn't.
    It is a fiction because no negotiation will end up with a bad deal, but it is nevertheless a good starting point. If they were to start from the other end – i.e. beginning where we are now and unravelling the tangled skein of laws, regulations and directives they will get nowhere fast. They have to start with high principles and build up from there.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,661
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Inner south-east Manchester in the mid-to-late sixties was a different place to what it is now. There were many leafy middle-class areas (Fallowfield, Rusholme, Levenshulme) whose large houses have since been split up and multi-occupied; the student and Muslim vote in these areas has grown massively.
    For the culturally interested, ‘Rusholme Ruffians’ by the Smiths gives a snapshot of Manchester Gorton in the late sixties and early seventies; a once-grand area on the slide.

    There is presumably an equivalent gentrifying effect elsewhere, where other suburbs or small towns have become more middle-class (though not necessarily more Tory)?
    Yes, there was a lot of middle-class flight from inner Manchester, generally to new developments which simply didn't exist back then - the population of suburbs like Cheadle Hulme and Heald Green grew dramatically as the middle classes moved out of Manchester. The Tory vote of the southern fringes of GM grew correspondingly - these were fairly Tory areas to begin with, but supplied fewer seats.
    In terms of becoming more Tory, it's difficult to point to any examples in Greater Manchester: perhaps if you look at the Lancashire coalfield towns like Leigh, Astley and Boothstown they are a lot less Labour now than they were then. Better examples are in Cheshire - working class towns like Crewe, Nothwich and Winsford have become more Conservative without necessarily becoming any more middle class.
    Up to the 1960s, most middle-class voters would not have been trade union members, but would be home-owning, or aspiring to home ownership, and that would have made them strongly anti-socialist. Labour would be focussed on workers rights for their members, and wage and price controls, not interest rates. A minority would have been Liberal.

    Social values would have tended socially conservative as well - patriotic, and family centred - but since the 1960s, the expansion of higher education and the unionised public sector, as well as broader social change, Labour has become much more friendly and less threatening to the middle class. It has also taken on causes like gender equality in the boardroom.

    The professional middle class have become much more interested in globalisation, internationalism and free movement for them (because it benefits them economically) more embarrassed by our historical past, and far more detached from socially conservative values of nation, religion and family.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    The Nats favourite writer:

    For some lapsed Catholics, nationalism fills a void where spirituality once dwelt

    http://www.catholicherald.co.uk/issues/march-24th-2017/scotlands-messianic-age
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Antoine de Caunes was probably taking the minutes

    https://twitter.com/ScotlandshireGB/status/846321504048627714
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    The UK side in the Brexit talks should declare at the outset that base zero is a clean break and adoption of WTO rules. This after all is the plainest implication of the referendum result. Any agreements beyond that will be a positive gain for both sides, and strong incentives would thereby be established for both sides to play the resulting positive sum game cooperatively.

    In case you hadn't noticed that was precisely what Theresa May tried to do with her Lancaster House speech. That position has already broken down before negotiations start.
    It is indeed implied by "no deal is better than a bad deal", and that is still the position as far as I can see. And very sensible too. Both sides can obviously improve on that, and that is where the talks will go if they are conducted rationally.
    But "no deal is better than a bad deal" is a fiction. The question is whether it is rational for either side to pretend that it isn't.
    It is a fiction because no negotiation will end up with a bad deal, but it is nevertheless a good starting point. If they were to start from the other end – i.e. beginning where we are now and unravelling the tangled skein of laws, regulations and directives they will get nowhere fast. They have to start with high principles and build up from there.
    It's all very well in theory to say that we should pretend we're starting from scratch, but as soon as you get into the tiniest detail it's impossible to ignore the existing tangled web.

    In practice the deal can only be a decremental variation on what we have now, and the side which will have to make concessions to make it work is the UK.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    RobD said:

    The Guardian going into complete melt-down over the Mail front page is hilarious.

    Hah, they even have a live blog dedicated to it. Utterly ridiculous.
    Blimey, how on earth did they rope in Andrew Sparrow to do the Live blog. – The shame…!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    calum said:

    Antoine de Caunes was probably taking the minutes

    https://twitter.com/ScotlandshireGB/status/846321504048627714

    More fake news! ;)
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    RobD said:


    Says who? If the bad deal involved the UK forking over £100bn/year, would that be better than no deal?

    If the no deal involved the UK losing over £100bn/year, would that be better than a bad deal?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Uk should say our default position is zero tariffs for ever - end of negotiation.


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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    The thruppeny bit gets re-introduced today, inflation adjustment makes it worth £1

    I never liked the original. The sixpence was my favourite. Small, shiny, beautiful and worth twice as much :)
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    TGOHF said:

    Uk should say our default position is zero tariffs for ever - end of negotiation.


    Zero tariffs on which goods between which countries?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mrs C, I've got a jar of sixpences somewhere or other.

    I used to collect coins. Keeping quite a few of the 'old' £1 coins, for the rarer designs.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    TGOHF said:

    Uk should say our default position is zero tariffs for ever - end of negotiation.


    Zero tariffs on global products is the counterbalance to WTO tariffs on EU ones.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,033
    matt said:



    That's Ronnie Scott's line.

    Stephen Patrick Morrissey

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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,177
    TGOHF said:

    Uk should say our default position is zero tariffs for ever - end of negotiation.


    That could be a good starting point, I agree.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427
    Roger said:
    Let us not forget the exact words he said in the interview:

    "Let’s remember when Hitler won his election in 1932, his policy then was that Jews should be moved to Israel. He was supporting Zionism – this before he went mad and ended up killing six million Jews."

    In Ken's refutation he states:

    "I did not say or suggest that Hitler was a Zionist. I did not make any equation of Hitler and Zionism."

    I'll leave the jury to decide.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,715

    Mrs C, I've got a jar of sixpences somewhere or other.

    I used to collect coins. Keeping quite a few of the 'old' £1 coins, for the rarer designs.

    I'll sell you some - two for a fiver.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Uk should say our default position is zero tariffs for ever - end of negotiation.


    Zero tariffs on which goods between which countries?
    Any and all.

    We start from here on the day Brexit. We then start selling Scotch whisky to India and China at zero % tariff.

    If any protectionist trade cartels - e.g. the EU - slap tariffs on the Uk then we can retaliate after the event - perhaps with a month or so grace.

    We dare them to veer to protectionism - then hit them back if they do.

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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,715

    The thruppeny bit gets re-introduced today, inflation adjustment makes it worth £1

    I never liked the original. The sixpence was my favourite. Small, shiny, beautiful and worth twice as much :)

    The sixpence however lacked the rhyming-slang qualities of thruppeny bits...
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Mrs C, I've got a jar of sixpences somewhere or other.

    I used to collect coins. Keeping quite a few of the 'old' £1 coins, for the rarer designs.

    I'll sell you some - two for a fiver.
    :D
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Rentool, careful. Maybe I'll pay you with fakes (one I've got is a fake £1 coin. Superficially convincing but the lettering on the side is the wrong way up).
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046

    The Nats favourite writer:

    For some lapsed Catholics, nationalism fills a void where spirituality once dwelt

    http://www.catholicherald.co.uk/issues/march-24th-2017/scotlands-messianic-age

    Mr Daisley certainly gets around - the full quote which you've precised above speaks volumes about your chap:

    "For lapsed Catholics, nationalism fills a void once nourished by spirituality, and redemption comes through sovereignty, not salvation. Francis may be the Pope but only Nicola is infallible."
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    Talking of by elections.

    Another police force has sent a file on alleged Tory election fraud to prosecutors, it was revealed today.

    The Crown Prosecution Service confirmed that it had received a file from West Midlands Police - the 13th police to do so in recent weeks.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/west-midlands-police-become-13th-10111188
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Roger said:

    HHemmelig said:

    Roger said:

    HHemmelig said:

    Roger said:

    FPT

    The most noticable difference the early days of Brexit will make is the complexity of the forms we will have to fill in. This morning I received something which is known as a W-8BEN-E which I understand relates to a small investment I have in the US. It is 10 pages long and a flavour can be seen from question 1 under the title 'status'.

    "Are you a non participating FFI including a limited FFI or an FFI related to a reporting IGA FFI other than a deemed compliant FFI participating FFI or exempt beneficial owner?"

    Imagine the 'Leavers' of Clackton Hartlipool and Stoke who require aids such as 'open other end' on the bottom of milk-bottles grappling with FORMS like this?

    Because once we are on our own this is going to be the norm. Years of non bureaucratic existance will be over. It'll be like dealing with the US every day

    As a staunch Remainer, may I say that this kind of condescending snobbery infuriates me. I cannot see how anyone could see it as anything other than totally counter-productive. It is one of the key reasons why we lost the referendum and have remained on the back foot ever since. Making fun of Leavers' supposed lack of intelligence whilst not even bothering to spell the towns correctly is rather ironic to say the least.
    Just my sense of humour. You don't have to get used to it
    Why do you feel the need to reinforce an already very dominant stereotype that all Remainers are condescending metropolitan snobs who know and care nothing for much of the country? Do you secretly want to be governed by a populist right wing government for the next 20 years? It's all very well saying "it's just my sense of humour" but, for example, you would find an equivalent joke playing on racial stereotypes beyond the pale.
    Though it's a joke I am seethingly angry with the people who put us in this state. I don't go along with the idea that you have to be nice towards people who you believe to be mean spirited which is how I see Brexiteers. I personally know very few and in the same way that I don't find 'metropolitan elite' offensive (I know what they mean) they shouldn't find 'small minded mean spirited nationalists' offensive. What part could you argue with?.
    If you knew some you might hold fewer prejudices toward them.
    I'm sure he knows loads who voted to to leave, but they're not going public about it.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    It is for the execrable 38 Degrees as well. But I think the numbers pass the smell test: I think the key finding is that current Tory voters split 37-51 against Osborne taking the job.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,395

    The thruppeny bit gets re-introduced today, inflation adjustment makes it worth £1

    I never liked the original. The sixpence was my favourite. Small, shiny, beautiful and worth twice as much :)

    Great for cloutie dumpling too.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,661

    The Guardian going into complete melt-down over the Mail front page is hilarious.

    Ruth Davidson (as is so often the case) has posted the best response, and she's done so without being either sanctimonious, insufferable or po-faced.

    Reminds me why I'm proud to be a Tory!
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    TGOHF said:

    We start from here on the day Brexit. We then start selling Scotch whisky to India and China at zero % tariff.

    Err, tariffs are imposed by the importing country!
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Uk should say our default position is zero tariffs for ever - end of negotiation.


    Zero tariffs on which goods between which countries?
    Any and all.

    We start from here on the day Brexit. We then start selling Scotch whisky to India and China at zero % tariff.

    If any protectionist trade cartels - e.g. the EU - slap tariffs on the Uk then we can retaliate after the event - perhaps with a month or so grace.

    We dare them to veer to protectionism - then hit them back if they do.

    We'd have to leave the WTO to do that.
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    It is for the execrable 38 Degrees as well. But I think the numbers pass the smell test: I think the key finding is that current Tory voters split 37-51 against Osborne taking the job.
    But his constituency party backed him.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    It is for the execrable 38 Degrees as well. But I think the numbers pass the smell test: I think the key finding is that current Tory voters split 37-51 against Osborne taking the job.

    Yes, but how fussed are they? I suspect not very.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427

    Mr. Rentool, careful. Maybe I'll pay you with fakes (one I've got is a fake £1 coin. Superficially convincing but the lettering on the side is the wrong way up).

    iirc the lettering can be the wrong way up on the side on a real coin. It is random.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    Manchester Gorton was a totally different seat in 1967, far fewer students and with a much lower Muslim population, at the last general election the Tories got just 9.7% when they got 37% nationwide, it is one of the worst seats in the country for a Tory candidate
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,064

    The thruppeny bit gets re-introduced today, inflation adjustment makes it worth £1

    I never liked the original. The sixpence was my favourite. Small, shiny, beautiful and worth twice as much :)

    The sixpence however lacked the rhyming-slang qualities of thruppeny bits...
    I’ve got sixpence/Jolly jolly sixpence/I’ve got sixpence to last me all my life/I’ve tuppence to lend and tuppence to spend and tuppence to send home to my wife!
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    It is for the execrable 38 Degrees as well. But I think the numbers pass the smell test: I think the key finding is that current Tory voters split 37-51 against Osborne taking the job.
    Tories and Labour both down 1 on 2015 smells the sniff test? Seems odd to me that May's Tories and Corbyn's Labour have the same UNS.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,661
    I'd like guineas back please.

    I'd love to bill my clients in guineas.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:


    Says who? If the bad deal involved the UK forking over £100bn/year, would that be better than no deal?

    If the no deal involved the UK losing over £100bn/year, would that be better than a bad deal?
    I'm not the one claiming a bad deal is always better than no deal. :)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167

    For reasons which escape me, TSE omits to mention the name of the Conservative candidate who nearly took the seat.......Winston Churchill.....

    An innocent oversight, no doubt....

    Edit - apologies -,missed the table on vanilla - but perhaps the name of the candidate had more to do with his success than the pro-EU views of the Tory leader?
    Oh my.

    In the same month there was another by election where the Tory candidate saw his share of the vote go up by 7.1% compared to Winston S Churchill's piddling 4.6% increase.

    The other Tory candidate didn't have a name as illustrious as Churchill. Ergo we can infer the boost was down to Heath's Pro-EC views.
    Heath had the same views the year before when Wilson trounced him in the general election of 1966
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    RobCRobC Posts: 398
    Talking of coinage the old seven sided threepence would be worth about 21p today. Prto-rata the old halfpenny demonetised almost 50 years ago in 1968 would be worth 3.5p yet we still use 1p and 2p coins with even less purchasing power. Time to ditch brown money!

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427
    Mike Smithson‏ @MSmithsonPB 21m21 minutes ago

    Survation Tatton poll has "3 jobs Osbo" holding on with 41% margin
    CON 58 (-1)
    LAB 17 (-1)
    LD 12 (+3)
    UKIP 9 (-2)

    Except there will be no seat after boundary changes iirc.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    It is for the execrable 38 Degrees as well. But I think the numbers pass the smell test: I think the key finding is that current Tory voters split 37-51 against Osborne taking the job.
    Tories and Labour both down 1 on 2015 smells the sniff test? Seems odd to me that May's Tories and Corbyn's Labour have the same UNS.
    I think in the context of the Osborne news it does. Doubtless the Tories would be up otherwise :p
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,661

    TGOHF said:

    We start from here on the day Brexit. We then start selling Scotch whisky to India and China at zero % tariff.

    Err, tariffs are imposed by the importing country!
    True, there is a case for the UK declaring unilateral free trade (i.e. not imposing any tariffs on any imports whatsoever) but I suspect very difficult to do politically.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    Talking of by elections.

    Another police force has sent a file on alleged Tory election fraud to prosecutors, it was revealed today.

    The Crown Prosecution Service confirmed that it had received a file from West Midlands Police - the 13th police to do so in recent weeks.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/west-midlands-police-become-13th-10111188

    Andrew Neil will be earning his salary this year.. :D
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    We start from here on the day Brexit. We then start selling Scotch whisky to India and China at zero % tariff.

    Err, tariffs are imposed by the importing country!
    Correct - but we announce that our starting rates are zero for imports and we expect the same for exports.

    Let's see who's for free trade and who isn't.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    TGOHF said:

    We start from here on the day Brexit. We then start selling Scotch whisky to India and China at zero % tariff.

    Err, tariffs are imposed by the importing country!
    True, there is a case for the UK declaring unilateral free trade (i.e. not imposing any tariffs on any imports whatsoever) but I suspect very difficult to do politically.
    And if the Europeans turn round and say "thanks very much for not putting tariffs on our goods, but we'll be slapping 25% tariffs on you"?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    RobD said:

    The Guardian going into complete melt-down over the Mail front page is hilarious.

    Hah, they even have a live blog dedicated to it. Utterly ridiculous.
    It's absolutely top trolling!
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,395
    Have to say I am a bit concerned about this. I like my accountant but I pay him enough already.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205

    Mike Smithson‏ @MSmithsonPB 21m21 minutes ago

    Survation Tatton poll has "3 jobs Osbo" holding on with 41% margin
    CON 58 (-1)
    LAB 17 (-1)
    LD 12 (+3)
    UKIP 9 (-2)

    Except there will be no seat after boundary changes iirc.

    That's not actually that good for the Tories considering the change in the national polls since the last election.
This discussion has been closed.