what are her options ? She has held her vote but has few choices in partners. She cant go AfD or Linke, the FDP have flopped. She only has the SPD.
But that must depend on the Greens being represented. If they fail, then a left-left combination would have no majority and would fall at the first hurdle.
if that fails the only option is the grand coalition. Which once again forces Germany into a squishy middle
A grand coalition is what they've got now in Saarland. The CDU has made big gains and the SPD, Linke and Greens have all lost share. Your predilection for giving the losers the victory is a revelation.
< If they hadn't kept the pressure on - for instance, if Clarke had been their leader - Blair could have taken us into the euro without a referendum.
Absolute nonsense.
The main obstacle to Euro membership within the Government was Gordon Brown. He wasn't the only one less than convinced by the virtue of joining the Euro but he was firmly opposed and since Blair had effectively sub-contracted the running of the economy to Brown the Chancellor's opposition kept us out.
The Conservatives had absolutely nothing to do with it.
On topic. Meeks displays all his usual smugness & complacency. In what sense are The Libdems crushed ? In their membership, doubled over the last 5 Years ? In Local Elections where they look likely to make big gains in May & again next May ? In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers ? The one place where The Libdems are weak is The House of Commons which has just voted to make itself irrelevant by giving May carte blanche on Brexit. The near future is up for grabs.
< If they hadn't kept the pressure on - for instance, if Clarke had been their leader - Blair could have taken us into the euro without a referendum.
Absolute nonsense.
The main obstacle to Euro membership within the Government was Gordon Brown. He wasn't the only one less than convinced by the virtue of joining the Euro but he was firmly opposed and since Blair had effectively sub-contracted the running of the economy to Brown the Chancellor's opposition kept us out.
The Conservatives had absolutely nothing to do with it.
Revisionist history, I'm afraid.
Exactly how did the Tories stop it with 164 MPs ?
Using ThreeQuidder's logic it was the Tories who forced Blair to go into Iraq.
Mr Meeks is surely jumping the gun. The opposition is growing, the Conservatives have peaked, UKIP is in decline. It will be hidden in May because the Conservatives should regain many seats they lost in 2013, particularly to UKIP. The joker in the pack is the Liberal Democrats. They will surely make gains but how many 25, 50, 100 even 200. Place your bets here.
"Elections will be held on Thursday 4th May 2017 in 27 English County Councils and 7 other English authorities, and all Welsh and Scottish Councils." Since they are County elections there will be far fewer seats than if it were District councils up for election.
what are her options ? She has held her vote but has few choices in partners. She cant go AfD or Linke, the FDP have flopped. She only has the SPD.
But that must depend on the Greens being represented. If they fail, then a left-left combination would have no majority and would fall at the first hurdle.
if that fails the only option is the grand coalition. Which once again forces Germany into a squishy middle
Technically, it forces the decisions about waste management in Germany's second smallest Laander to be decided by parties in the squishy middle. (Who, combined, increased their share of the vote by five percentage points since the last election.)
< If they hadn't kept the pressure on - for instance, if Clarke had been their leader - Blair could have taken us into the euro without a referendum.
Absolute nonsense.
The main obstacle to Euro membership within the Government was Gordon Brown. He wasn't the only one less than convinced by the virtue of joining the Euro but he was firmly opposed and since Blair had effectively sub-contracted the running of the economy to Brown the Chancellor's opposition kept us out.
The Conservatives had absolutely nothing to do with it.
Revisionist history, I'm afraid.
Exactly how did the Tories stop it with 164 MPs ?
Using ThreeQuidder's logic it was the Tories who forced Blair to go into Iraq.
Brown did this nation a huge service with his five tests.
The question is less "which party?" than "which state?"
Yes, when Jean-Claude Juncker observed that Cameron had destroyed the UK it wasn't a joke.
ROFL
amusing from the bloke who has actually presided over the break up of the EU
Not break up, just the loss of one sulky member.
Of course all our vote was a hissy fit.
Totally unwarranted of course but the voters were having a strop.........
I do so love our revisionist friends.
While June 24th 2016 was when we finally spat the dummy, the sulking has gone on for decades. We have always been half hearted about Europe, and like any relationship you get out as you put in.
Under New Labour joining the Euro was never really on the cards, not least after the mauling by the ERM.
Hagues "24 hours to save the pound" was always nonsense, as was demonstrated by the 2001 Labour government.
On topic. Meeks displays all his usual smugness & complacency. In what sense are The Libdems crushed ? In their membership, doubled over the last 5 Years ? In Local Elections where they look likely to make big gains in May & again next May ? In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers ? The one place where The Libdems are weak is The House of Commons which has just voted to make itself irrelevant by giving May carte blanche on Brexit. The near future is up for grabs.
The LibDems have turned the corner, but it will be a long road back. I write as an LD member.
On topic. Meeks displays all his usual smugness & complacency. In what sense are The Libdems crushed ? In their membership, doubled over the last 5 Years ? In Local Elections where they look likely to make big gains in May & again next May ? In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers ? The one place where The Libdems are weak is The House of Commons which has just voted to make itself irrelevant by giving May carte blanche on Brexit. The near future is up for grabs.
The Lib Dems have nine MP's, are at a low ebb in local government, and have little representation in the Scottish Parliament, or Welsh and London Assembly. I'm sure they will gain ground in coming years, but right now, they're very weak.
CDU down a bit, SPD up a bit. Linke down,Greens out
If correct, the outcome is a Grand Coalition. SPD/Linke don't have a majority.
the analysis in germany is now turning to why the Schulz effect did hit the Saarland
Talk of left-left govt at national level frightening voters back to mutti? Notice the FDP more than doubled their micro vote to over 3%....
Merkel could have had that last time instead she screwed up the FDP vote and was forced into a grand coalition. It remains to be seen if she can do better next time
On topic. Meeks displays all his usual smugness & complacency. In what sense are The Libdems crushed ? In their membership, doubled over the last 5 Years ? In Local Elections where they look likely to make big gains in May & again next May ? In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers ? The one place where The Libdems are weak is The House of Commons which has just voted to make itself irrelevant by giving May carte blanche on Brexit. The near future is up for grabs.
The Lib Dems have nine MP's, are at a low ebb in local government, and have little representation in the Scottish Parliament, or Welsh and London Assembly. I'm sure they will gain ground in coming years, but right now, they're very weak.
If there a GE tomorrow, the question is where would the LDs be confident of making gains? Cambridge, Bath perhaps. Others? Open to advice. 9 is a low ebb but is there an inrushing tide?
Anyone writing an article which suggests the combination of Bojo, Liam Fox and David Davies is going to prove to be eminently successful at their job of making Brexit work.. is very brave.
CDU down a bit, SPD up a bit. Linke down,Greens out
If correct, the outcome is a Grand Coalition. SPD/Linke don't have a majority.
the analysis in germany is now turning to why the Schulz effect did hit the Saarland
Talk of left-left govt at national level frightening voters back to mutti? Notice the FDP more than doubled their micro vote to over 3%....
Merkel could have had that last time instead she screwed up the FDP vote and was forced into a grand coalition. It remains to be seen if she can do better next time
Absolutely, completely balmy (albeit the reckless gamble almost paid off as wasn't she desperately close to an outright majority). Haven't checked.
On topic. Meeks displays all his usual smugness & complacency. In what sense are The Libdems crushed ? In their membership, doubled over the last 5 Years ? In Local Elections where they look likely to make big gains in May & again next May ? In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers ? The one place where The Libdems are weak is The House of Commons which has just voted to make itself irrelevant by giving May carte blanche on Brexit. The near future is up for grabs.
The Lib Dems have nine MP's, are at a low ebb in local government, and have little representation in the Scottish Parliament, or Welsh and London Assembly. I'm sure they will gain ground in coming years, but right now, they're very weak.
If there a GE tomorrow, the question is where would the LDs be confident of making gains? Cambridge, Bath perhaps. Others? Open to advice. 9 is a low ebb but is there an inrushing tide?
If there was a General Election tomorrow, I would expect the LDs to lose Richmond-Upon-Thames, gain Cambridge from Labour, gain Edinburgh West and Perth NE from the SNP, and maybe grab a couple of uber-Remain seats in SW London from the Tories (Twickenham would be the most likely).
I'm sticking with my 12-14 seats (on 12-14% vote share) forecast.
On topic. Meeks displays all his usual smugness & complacency. In what sense are The Libdems crushed ? In their membership, doubled over the last 5 Years ? In Local Elections where they look likely to make big gains in May & again next May ? In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers ? The one place where The Libdems are weak is The House of Commons which has just voted to make itself irrelevant by giving May carte blanche on Brexit. The near future is up for grabs.
"In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers" - well done on them for not dropping down dead....
< If they hadn't kept the pressure on - for instance, if Clarke had been their leader - Blair could have taken us into the euro without a referendum.
Absolute nonsense.
The main obstacle to Euro membership within the Government was Gordon Brown. He wasn't the only one less than convinced by the virtue of joining the Euro but he was firmly opposed and since Blair had effectively sub-contracted the running of the economy to Brown the Chancellor's opposition kept us out.
The Conservatives had absolutely nothing to do with it.
Revisionist history, I'm afraid.
Exactly how did the Tories stop it with 164 MPs ?
Using ThreeQuidder's logic it was the Tories who forced Blair to go into Iraq.
Brown did this nation a huge service with his five tests.
They were a smokescreen. The only test that ever mattered was could a referendum be won.
On topic. Meeks displays all his usual smugness & complacency. In what sense are The Libdems crushed ? In their membership, doubled over the last 5 Years ? In Local Elections where they look likely to make big gains in May & again next May ? In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers ? The one place where The Libdems are weak is The House of Commons which has just voted to make itself irrelevant by giving May carte blanche on Brexit. The near future is up for grabs.
"In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers" - well done on them for not dropping down dead....
Reason for all those peers? They lost all their seats in elections, but kept on the gravy train.
On topic. Meeks displays all his usual smugness & complacency. In what sense are The Libdems crushed ? In their membership, doubled over the last 5 Years ? In Local Elections where they look likely to make big gains in May & again next May ? In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers ? The one place where The Libdems are weak is The House of Commons which has just voted to make itself irrelevant by giving May carte blanche on Brexit. The near future is up for grabs.
The Lib Dems have nine MP's, are at a low ebb in local government, and have little representation in the Scottish Parliament, or Welsh and London Assembly. I'm sure they will gain ground in coming years, but right now, they're very weak.
If there a GE tomorrow, the question is where would the LDs be confident of making gains? Cambridge, Bath perhaps. Others? Open to advice. 9 is a low ebb but is there an inrushing tide?
If there was a General Election tomorrow, I would expect the LDs to lose Richmond-Upon-Thames, gain Cambridge from Labour, gain Edinburgh West and Perth NE from the SNP, and maybe grab a couple of uber-Remain seats in SW London from the Tories (Twickenham would be the most likely).
I'm sticking with my 12-14 seats (on 12-14% vote share) forecast.
If you're expecting the Conservatives to regain Richmond then that only leaves Twickenham as an uber-Remain target for the LibDems as Kingston would have been less than 60% Remain and Sutton probably Leave. Not to mention LibDem held Carshalton certainly being Leave.
For potential LibDem gains it might be worth noting constituencies where the MP has proved 'controversial'. Bath might fall into this category.
But even so 12-14 seats on 12-14% vote share would sill be the LibDems second worse performance since 1970 - they really should be able to do better than that in the current circumstances.
CDU down a bit, SPD up a bit. Linke down,Greens out
If correct, the outcome is a Grand Coalition. SPD/Linke don't have a majority.
the analysis in germany is now turning to why the Schulz effect did hit the Saarland
Talk of left-left govt at national level frightening voters back to mutti? Notice the FDP more than doubled their micro vote to over 3%....
The Left populists seemed to do better in Saarland as well as Netherlands, while the right wing populists underperform recent polling. An interesting pointer for France perhaps.
CDU down a bit, SPD up a bit. Linke down,Greens out
If correct, the outcome is a Grand Coalition. SPD/Linke don't have a majority.
the analysis in germany is now turning to why the Schulz effect did hit the Saarland
Talk of left-left govt at national level frightening voters back to mutti? Notice the FDP more than doubled their micro vote to over 3%....
The Left populists seemed to do better in Saarland as well as Netherlands, while the right wing populists underperform recent polling. An interesting pointer for France perhaps.
How do you work that out ?
compared to the last election die Linke has dropped 3.5% of the vote and the AfD gained 6%
CDU down a bit, SPD up a bit. Linke down,Greens out
If correct, the outcome is a Grand Coalition. SPD/Linke don't have a majority.
the analysis in germany is now turning to why the Schulz effect did hit the Saarland
Talk of left-left govt at national level frightening voters back to mutti? Notice the FDP more than doubled their micro vote to over 3%....
The Left populists seemed to do better in Saarland as well as Netherlands, while the right wing populists underperform recent polling. An interesting pointer for France perhaps.
How do you work that out ?
compared to the last election die Linke has dropped 3.5% of the vote and the AfD gained 6%
Linke are significantly ahead of AfD with double the poll share and AfD had been polling in the low teens, at least in national polling.
CDU down a bit, SPD up a bit. Linke down,Greens out
If correct, the outcome is a Grand Coalition. SPD/Linke don't have a majority.
the analysis in germany is now turning to why the Schulz effect did hit the Saarland
Talk of left-left govt at national level frightening voters back to mutti? Notice the FDP more than doubled their micro vote to over 3%....
The Left populists seemed to do better in Saarland as well as Netherlands, while the right wing populists underperform recent polling. An interesting pointer for France perhaps.
How do you work that out ?
compared to the last election die Linke has dropped 3.5% of the vote and the AfD gained 6%
Linke are significantly ahead of AfD with double the poll share and AfD had been polling in the low teens, at least in national polling.
I don't know much about the AfD and Die Linke, but certainly in this country I can fully understand a difference between performance in local elections and polling for the GE.
On topic. Meeks displays all his usual smugness & complacency. In what sense are The Libdems crushed ? In their membership, doubled over the last 5 Years ? In Local Elections where they look likely to make big gains in May & again next May ? In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers ? The one place where The Libdems are weak is The House of Commons which has just voted to make itself irrelevant by giving May carte blanche on Brexit. The near future is up for grabs.
The Lib Dems have nine MP's, are at a low ebb in local government, and have little representation in the Scottish Parliament, or Welsh and London Assembly. I'm sure they will gain ground in coming years, but right now, they're very weak.
If there a GE tomorrow, the question is where would the LDs be confident of making gains? Cambridge, Bath perhaps. Others? Open to advice. 9 is a low ebb but is there an inrushing tide?
If there was a General Election tomorrow, I would expect the LDs to lose Richmond-Upon-Thames, gain Cambridge from Labour, gain Edinburgh West and Perth NE from the SNP, and maybe grab a couple of uber-Remain seats in SW London from the Tories (Twickenham would be the most likely).
I'm sticking with my 12-14 seats (on 12-14% vote share) forecast.
If you're expecting the Conservatives to regain Richmond then that only leaves Twickenham as an uber-Remain target for the LibDems as Kingston would have been less than 60% Remain and Sutton probably Leave. Not to mention LibDem held Carshalton certainly being Leave.
For potential LibDem gains it might be worth noting constituencies where the MP has proved 'controversial'. Bath might fall into this category.
But even so 12-14 seats on 12-14% vote share would sill be the LibDems second worse performance since 1970 - they really should be able to do better than that in the current circumstances.
Kingston was 62% Remain, so that's a good shout for them, I would have thought.
CDU down a bit, SPD up a bit. Linke down,Greens out
If correct, the outcome is a Grand Coalition. SPD/Linke don't have a majority.
the analysis in germany is now turning to why the Schulz effect did hit the Saarland
Talk of left-left govt at national level frightening voters back to mutti? Notice the FDP more than doubled their micro vote to over 3%....
The Left populists seemed to do better in Saarland as well as Netherlands, while the right wing populists underperform recent polling. An interesting pointer for France perhaps.
How do you work that out ?
compared to the last election die Linke has dropped 3.5% of the vote and the AfD gained 6%
Some comfort for Merkel there after the recent Schulz led SPD surge, CDU still largest party and the SPD do not have a majority even with Die Linke so it looks like the Grand Coalition has some mileage left in it yet. CDU plus AfD would scrape over the line for a majority with no margin for error but Merkel has made clear her party will not touch them with a bargepole even in state elections
CDU down a bit, SPD up a bit. Linke down,Greens out
If correct, the outcome is a Grand Coalition. SPD/Linke don't have a majority.
the analysis in germany is now turning to why the Schulz effect did hit the Saarland
Talk of left-left govt at national level frightening voters back to mutti? Notice the FDP more than doubled their micro vote to over 3%....
The Left populists seemed to do better in Saarland as well as Netherlands, while the right wing populists underperform recent polling. An interesting pointer for France perhaps.
How do you work that out ?
compared to the last election die Linke has dropped 3.5% of the vote and the AfD gained 6%
Linke are significantly ahead of AfD with double the poll share and AfD had been polling in the low teens, at least in national polling.
Because Lafontaine switched to Die Linke, this has always been a strong area for them.
On topic. Meeks displays all his usual smugness & complacency. In what sense are The Libdems crushed ? In their membership, doubled over the last 5 Years ? In Local Elections where they look likely to make big gains in May & again next May ? In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers ? The one place where The Libdems are weak is The House of Commons which has just voted to make itself irrelevant by giving May carte blanche on Brexit. The near future is up for grabs.
The Lib Dems have nine MP's, are at a low ebb in local government, and have little representation in the Scottish Parliament, or Welsh and London Assembly. I'm sure they will gain ground in coming years, but right now, they're very weak.
If there a GE tomorrow, the question is where would the LDs be confident of making gains? Cambridge, Bath perhaps. Others? Open to advice. 9 is a low ebb but is there an inrushing tide?
If there was a General Election tomorrow, I would expect the LDs to lose Richmond-Upon-Thames, gain Cambridge from Labour, gain Edinburgh West and Perth NE from the SNP, and maybe grab a couple of uber-Remain seats in SW London from the Tories (Twickenham would be the most likely).
I'm sticking with my 12-14 seats (on 12-14% vote share) forecast.
If you're expecting the Conservatives to regain Richmond then that only leaves Twickenham as an uber-Remain target for the LibDems as Kingston would have been less than 60% Remain and Sutton probably Leave. Not to mention LibDem held Carshalton certainly being Leave.
For potential LibDem gains it might be worth noting constituencies where the MP has proved 'controversial'. Bath might fall into this category.
But even so 12-14 seats on 12-14% vote share would sill be the LibDems second worse performance since 1970 - they really should be able to do better than that in the current circumstances.
Kingston was 62% Remain, so that's a good shout for them, I would have thought.
With 14% of the vote, Baxter has the LibDems on 13 seats with three gains from Labour in Burnley, Cambridge and Bermondsey, and two from the Tories in Lewes and Eastbourne. This doesn't take into account the Leave/Remain vote. This should also give the LibDems Twickenham and Kingston.
The polling comparison in the Saar is pretty simple.
The CDU had a lead of 12 points in January (before the national Schultz surge) Then their lead was cut to 1 or 2; largely because the SPD rounded up other votes not from the CDU; Then it reverted to 5 points during the campaign.
It is now believed to have won a ten point victory, as in, something like their January lead BUT having won for themselves more votes.
Replicated nationally that would see Merkel home easily. I think 1.7 is now too long for most seats.
On topic. Meeks displays all his usual smugness & complacency. In what sense are The Libdems crushed ? In their membership, doubled over the last 5 Years ? In Local Elections where they look likely to make big gains in May & again next May ? In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers ? The one place where The Libdems are weak is The House of Commons which has just voted to make itself irrelevant by giving May carte blanche on Brexit. The near future is up for grabs.
The Lib Dems have nine MP's, are at a low ebb in local government, and have little representation in the Scottish Parliament, or Welsh and London Assembly. I'm sure they will gain ground in coming years, but right now, they're very weak.
If there a GE tomorrow, the question is where would the LDs be confident of making gains? Cambridge, Bath perhaps. Others? Open to advice. 9 is a low ebb but is there an inrushing tide?
If there was a General Election tomorrow, I would expect the LDs to lose Richmond-Upon-Thames, gain Cambridge from Labour, gain Edinburgh West and Perth NE from the SNP, and maybe grab a couple of uber-Remain seats in SW London from the Tories (Twickenham would be the most likely).
I'm sticking with my 12-14 seats (on 12-14% vote share) forecast.
If you're expecting the Conservatives to regain Richmond then that only leaves Twickenham as an uber-Remain target for the LibDems as Kingston would have been less than 60% Remain and Sutton probably Leave. Not to mention LibDem held Carshalton certainly being Leave.
For potential LibDem gains it might be worth noting constituencies where the MP has proved 'controversial'. Bath might fall into this category.
But even so 12-14 seats on 12-14% vote share would sill be the LibDems second worse performance since 1970 - they really should be able to do better than that in the current circumstances.
Kingston was 62% Remain, so that's a good shout for them, I would have thought.
With 14% of the vote, Baxter has the LibDems on 13 seats with three gains from Labour in Burnely, Cambridge and Bermondsey, and two from the Tories in Lewes and Eastbourne. This doesn't take into account the Leave/Remain vote. This should also give the LibDems Twickenham and Kingston.
I don't think the LDs will recapture Burnley. Bermondsey is an interesting one, especially as it's gentrifying rapidly, and is increasingly filled with relatively prosperous pro-EU types. Next year's locals will be fascinating.
CDU down a bit, SPD up a bit. Linke down,Greens out
If correct, the outcome is a Grand Coalition. SPD/Linke don't have a majority.
the analysis in germany is now turning to why the Schulz effect did hit the Saarland
Talk of left-left govt at national level frightening voters back to mutti? Notice the FDP more than doubled their micro vote to over 3%....
The Left populists seemed to do better in Saarland as well as Netherlands, while the right wing populists underperform recent polling. An interesting pointer for France perhaps.
How do you work that out ?
compared to the last election die Linke has dropped 3.5% of the vote and the AfD gained 6%
The question is less "which party?" than "which state?"
Yes, when Jean-Claude Juncker observed that Cameron had destroyed the UK it wasn't a joke.
UK actually still standing , despite its supposed 'death by hard Brexit' the DUP still just topped the poll in the NI Assembly elections and polling still indicates Scotland would vote No in any indyref2
The polling comparison in the Saar is pretty simple.
The CDU had a lead of 12 points in January (before the national Schultz surge) Then their lead was cut to 1 or 2; largely because the SPD rounded up other votes not from the CDU; Then it reverted to 5 points during the campaign.
It is now believed to have won a ten point victory, as in, something like their January lead BUT having won for themselves more votes.
Replicated nationally that would see Merkel home easily. I think 1.7 is now too long for most seats.
1.7 seems about right to me. The Saarland result is very good for her and it will take some of the wind out of the Schulz sails, but the blight of being juinor partner to a popular local leader made Saarland harder for the SPD than most other states. Merkel should be favourite, but it's not a shoo-in. Yet.
Note BTW that the CDU outdid their polling average by several %, at the expense of the SPD and minor parties, and Die Linke were also a bit higher than polling suggested. The polls were spot on for the (relatively poor) 6% AfD result, after showing them at 10% as recently as January. The AfD isn't toast yet, but they seem on the slide.
On topic. Meeks displays all his usual smugness & complacency. In what sense are The Libdems crushed ? In their membership, doubled over the last 5 Years ? In Local Elections where they look likely to make big gains in May & again next May ? In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers ? The one place where The Libdems are weak is The House of Commons which has just voted to make itself irrelevant by giving May carte blanche on Brexit. The near future is up for grabs.
The Lib Dems have nine MP's, are at a low ebb in local government, and have little representation in the Scottish Parliament, or Welsh and London Assembly. I'm sure they will gain ground in coming years, but right now, they're very weak.
If there a GE tomorrow, the question is where would the LDs be confident of making gains? Cambridge, Bath perhaps. Others? Open to advice. 9 is a low ebb but is there an inrushing tide?
If there was a General Election tomorrow
If you're expecting the Conservatives to regain Richmond then that only leaves Twickenham as an uber-Remain target for the LibDems as Kingston would have been less than 60% Remain and Sutton probably Leave. Not to mention LibDem held Carshalton certainly being Leave.
For potential LibDem gains it might be worth noting constituencies where the MP has proved 'controversial'. Bath might fall into this category.
But even so 12-14 seats on 12-14% vote share would sill be the LibDems second worse performance since 1970 - they really should be able to do better than that in the current circumstances.
Kingston was 62% Remain, so that's a good shout for them, I would have thought.
With 14% of the vote, Baxter has the LibDems on 13 seats with three gains from Labour in Burnely, Cambridge and Bermondsey, and two from the Tories in Lewes and Eastbourne. This doesn't take into account the Leave/Remain vote. This should also give the LibDems Twickenham and Kingston.
I don't think the LDs will recapture Burnley. Bermondsey is an interesting one, especially as it's gentrifying rapidly, and is increasingly filled with relatively prosperous pro-EU types. Next year's locals will be fascinating.
Previous LD gains have often come in areas with no real history. Farron's own seat for example, and also in places with strong council presence. Remainers and students will add to the mix too. There could well be unexpected gains.
Mr. Urquhart, the Government must secure the Moon on a stick. Without this, the negotiations will be a failure.
Speaking of idiotic directors of the CPS, I was surprised to read (Daily Mail yesterday) of the judge basically giving a bollocking to the incumbent director of the CPS over reform of rape trials and prosecution rates, saying, basically, that an incident that is disputed between two people who know each other, give differing accounts and occurred in private is bound (and right) to often lead to not guilty verdicts.
The CPS director wibbled in response about victim-blaming.
Except that presupposes a plaintiff is a victim, and the two terms are not synonymous. Claiming they are supposes that plaintiffs never lie, and accusations are as good as perfect evidence of guilt.
That sort of deranged thinking is not conducive to justice.
The polling comparison in the Saar is pretty simple.
The CDU had a lead of 12 points in January (before the national Schultz surge) Then their lead was cut to 1 or 2; largely because the SPD rounded up other votes not from the CDU; Then it reverted to 5 points during the campaign.
It is now believed to have won a ten point victory, as in, something like their January lead BUT having won for themselves more votes.
Replicated nationally that would see Merkel home easily. I think 1.7 is now too long for most seats.
1.7 seems about right to me. The Saarland result is very good for her and it will take some of the wind out of the Schulz sails, but the blight of being juinor partner to a popular local leader made Saarland harder for the SPD than most other states. Merkel should be favourite, but it's not a shoo-in. Yet.
Note BTW that the CDU outdid their polling average by several %, at the expense of the SPD and minor parties, and Die Linke were also a bit higher than polling suggested. The polls were spot on for the (relatively poor) 6% AfD result, after showing them at 10% as recently as January. The AfD isn't toast yet, but they seem on the slide.
I'm strictly considering the Saar not in absolute terms, but relative to the polling position.
CDU down a bit, SPD up a bit. Linke down,Greens out
If correct, the outcome is a Grand Coalition. SPD/Linke don't have a majority.
the analysis in germany is now turning to why the Schulz effect didnt hit the Saarland
Ominous for Macron.
Although the FN has consistently underperformed their poll scores in real elections (by 3% and 5% in 2015). So, good for Fillon?
Marine Le Pen slightly outperformed her poll score in the first round of the 2012 presidential election, her core support is solid, more likely the gap between Fillon and Macron is closer than the polls suggest
And in other election news, exit polls in Bulgaria suggest that the centre-right party (which led outgoing govt) has a 4% (32 to 28) lead over the socialists.
The question is less "which party?" than "which state?"
Yes, when Jean-Claude Juncker observed that Cameron had destroyed the UK it wasn't a joke.
UK actually still standing , despite its supposed 'death by hard Brexit' the DUP still just topped the poll in the NI Assembly elections and polling still indicates Scotland would vote No in any indyref2
That doesn't stop williamglenn indulging in his fantasies
On topic. Meeks displays all his usual smugness & complacency. In what sense are The Libdems crushed ? In their membership, doubled over the last 5 Years ? In Local Elections where they look likely to make big gains in May & again next May ? In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers ? The one place where The Libdems are weak is The House of Commons which has just voted to make itself irrelevant by giving May carte blanche on Brexit. The near future is up for grabs.
The Lib Dems have nine MP's, are at a low ebb in local government, and have little representation in the Scottish Parliament, or Welsh and London Assembly. I'm sure they will gain ground in coming years, but right now, they're very weak.
If there a GE tomorrow, the question is where would the LDs be confident of making gains? Cambridge, Bath perhaps. Others? Open to advice. 9 is a low ebb but is there an inrushing tide?
If there was a General Election tomorrow, I would expect the LDs to lose Richmond-Upon-Thames, gain Cambridge from Labour, gain Edinburgh West and Perth NE from the SNP, and maybe grab a couple of uber-Remain seats in SW London from the Tories (Twickenham would be the most likely).
I'm sticking with my 12-14 seats (on 12-14% vote share) forecast.
If you're expecting the Conservatives to regain Richmond then that only leaves Twickenham as an uber-Remain target for the LibDems as Kingston would have been less than 60% Remain and Sutton probably Leave. Not to mention LibDem held Carshalton certainly being Leave.
For potential LibDem gains it might be worth noting constituencies where the MP has proved 'controversial'. Bath might fall into this category.
But even so 12-14 seats on 12-14% vote share would sill be the LibDems second worse performance since 1970 - they really should be able to do better than that in the current circumstances.
Kingston was 62% Remain, so that's a good shout for them, I would have thought.
Not all of Kingston borough is in Kingston & Surbiton constituency - the inner wards are in Richmond Park.
Kingston & Surbiton constituency is given as 58.5% Remain here:
And with the LibDems already having Twickenham, Richmond Park and Carshalton to concentrate on in SW London do they have the resources to chase a much harder seat ?
The question is less "which party?" than "which state?"
Yes, when Jean-Claude Juncker observed that Cameron had destroyed the UK it wasn't a joke.
UK actually still standing , despite its supposed 'death by hard Brexit' the DUP still just topped the poll in the NI Assembly elections and polling still indicates Scotland would vote No in any indyref2
That doesn't stop williamglenn indulging in his fantasies
If there a GE tomorrow, the question is where would the LDs be confident of making gains? Cambridge, Bath perhaps. Others? Open to advice. 9 is a low ebb but is there an inrushing tide?
If there was a General Election tomorrow
If you're expecting the Conservatives to regain Richmond then that only leaves Twickenham as an uber-Remain target for the LibDems as Kingston would have been less than 60% Remain and Sutton probably Leave. Not to mention LibDem held Carshalton certainly being Leave.
For potential LibDem gains it might be worth noting constituencies where the MP has proved 'controversial'. Bath might fall into this category.
But even so 12-14 seats on 12-14% vote share would sill be the LibDems second worse performance since 1970 - they really should be able to do better than that in the current circumstances.
Kingston was 62% Remain, so that's a good shout for them, I would have thought.
With 14% of the vote, Baxter has the LibDems on 13 seats with three gains from Labour in Burnely, Cambridge and Bermondsey, and two from the Tories in Lewes and Eastbourne. This doesn't take into account the Leave/Remain vote. This should also give the LibDems Twickenham and Kingston.
I don't think the LDs will recapture Burnley. Bermondsey is an interesting one, especially as it's gentrifying rapidly, and is increasingly filled with relatively prosperous pro-EU types. Next year's locals will be fascinating.
Previous LD gains have often come in areas with no real history. Farron's own seat for example, and also in places with strong council presence. Remainers and students will add to the mix too. There could well be unexpected gains.
LibDem gains tend to be more unexpected than expected.
For example in 1983 I doubt many people would have expected Ashdown and Kennedy to have won but they did while many where they were expected to win they didn't (Islington South often features in this category).
On topic. Meeks displays all his usual smugness & complacency. In what sense are The Libdems crushed ? In their membership, doubled over the last 5 Years ? In Local Elections where they look likely to make big gains in May & again next May ? In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers ? The one place where The Libdems are weak is The House of Commons which has just voted to make itself irrelevant by giving May carte blanche on Brexit. The near future is up for grabs.
The Lib Dems have nine MP's, are at a low ebb in local government, and have little representation in the Scottish Parliament, or Welsh and London Assembly. I'm sure they will gain ground in coming years, but right now, they're very weak.
If there a GE tomorrow, the question is where would the LDs be confident of making gains? Cambridge, Bath perhaps. Others? Open to advice. 9 is a low ebb but is there an inrushing tide?
If there was a General Election tomorrow, I would expect the LDs to lose Richmond-Upon-Thames, gain Cambridge from Labour, gain Edinburgh West and Perth NE from the SNP, and maybe grab a couple of uber-Remain seats in SW London from the Tories (Twickenham would be the most likely).
I'm sticking with my 12-14 seats (on 12-14% vote share) forecast.
If you're expecting the Conservatives to regain Richmond then that only leaves Twickenham as an uber-Remain target for the LibDems as Kingston would have been less than 60% Remain and Sutton probably Leave. Not to mention LibDem held Carshalton certainly being Leave.
For potential LibDem gains it might be worth noting constituencies where the MP has proved 'controversial'. Bath might fall into this category.
But even so 12-14 seats on 12-14% vote share would sill be the LibDems second worse performance since 1970 - they really should be able to do better than that in the current circumstances.
Kingston was 62% Remain, so that's a good shout for them, I would have thought.
Not all of Kingston borough is in Kingston & Surbiton constituency - the inner wards are in Richmond Park.
Kingston & Surbiton constituency is given as 58.5% Remain here:
And with the LibDems already having Twickenham, Richmond Park and Carshalton to concentrate on in SW London do they have the resources to chase a much harder seat ?
A good point: Twickenham is by far their best shot.
That being said, next year's locals in London will be fascinating.
On topic. Meeks displays all his usual smugness & complacency. In what sense are The Libdems crushed ? In their membership, doubled over the last 5 Years ? In Local Elections where they look likely to make big gains in May & again next May ? In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers ? The one place where The Libdems are weak is The House of Commons which has just voted to make itself irrelevant by giving May carte blanche on Brexit. The near future is up for grabs.
The LibDems have turned the corner, but it will be a long road back. I write as an LD member.
A member? Really? You've hidden that so well up to now.
Goodness me 1983 was close in Islington South, wasn't it.
Thanks for your (and others) answers. Interesting antidote* to the LD on the march meme. I wasn't particularly struck by party members emphasising unexpected wins. Which perhaps implies their next charismatic leader is not of of their MPs...,
*edit, perhaps objective counterpoint would be a fairer phrase.
Was a pretty good race from a betting perspective. All three tips came off, which was quite surprising, and there were two more winners suggested in the comments.
If there a GE tomorrow, the question is where would the LDs be confident of making gains? Cambridge, Bath perhaps. Others? Open to advice. 9 is a low ebb but is there an inrushing tide?
If there was a General Election tomorrow
Kingston was 62% Remain, so that's a good shout for them, I would have thought.
With 14% of the vote, Baxter has the LibDems on 13 seats with three gains from Labour in Burnely, Cambridge and Bermondsey, and two from the Tories in Lewes and Eastbourne. This doesn't take into account the Leave/Remain vote. This should also give the LibDems Twickenham and Kingston.
I don't think the LDs will recapture Burnley. Bermondsey is an interesting one, especially as it's gentrifying rapidly, and is increasingly filled with relatively prosperous pro-EU types. Next year's locals will be fascinating.
Previous LD gains have often come in areas with no real history. Farron's own seat for example, and also in places with strong council presence. Remainers and students will add to the mix too. There could well be unexpected gains.
LibDem gains tend to be more unexpected than expected.
For example in 1983 I doubt many people would have expected Ashdown and Kennedy to have won but they did while many where they were expected to win they didn't (Islington South often features in this category).
One thing I will say about predicting which seats the LD will win is, many of the seats where they are now 2nd to Con will be hard to win back. The rural and semi-rural seats in the South West and elsewhere, where the Cons picked up in 2015, now have a new encumbrance bounce to the Cons favour, which combined with the Con rise in the national poles, put the Cons in a strong place, not to mention these seats are mostly pro Leave areas anyway.
But I suspect there will be other seats, mostly but not all Lab, that are venerable, especially if the candidate is new and has now built up personal vote, or is the wrong person for that type of seat, e.g. any member of Momentum almost anywhere, or a strong pro leave in a remain area.
The Whole thing will be confused by the new boundaries. but at this stage I would guess 20+ LDs
On topic. Meeks displays all his usual smugness & complacency. In what sense are The Libdems crushed ? In their membership, doubled over the last 5 Years ? In Local Elections where they look likely to make big gains in May & again next May ? In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers ? The one place where The Libdems are weak is The House of Commons which has just voted to make itself irrelevant by giving May carte blanche on Brexit. The near future is up for grabs.
The LibDems have turned the corner, but it will be a long road back. I write as an LD member.
A member? Really? You've hidden that so well up to now.
One thing I will say about predicting which seats the LD will win is, many of the seats where they are now 2nd to Con will be hard to win back. The rural and semi-rural seats in the South West and elsewhere, where the Cons picked up in 2015, now have a new encumbrance bounce to the Cons favour, which combined with the Con rise in the national poles, put the Cons in a strong place, not to mention these seats are mostly pro Leave areas anyway.
But I suspect there will be other seats, mostly but not all Lab, that are venerable, especially if the candidate is new and has now built up personal vote, or is the wrong person for that type of seat, e.g. any member of Momentum almost anywhere, or a strong pro leave in a remain area.
The Whole thing will be confused by the new boundaries. but at this stage I would guess 20+ LDs
Ultimately, the Tories are up more on 2015 (+7, say) than the LDs (+3ish), and so you would expect the LDs to struggle to take seats from them. (And, indeed, they may well lose some.)
The LD-Lab spread, mind, looks like it might be as much as 10 points. And if you overlay very pro-Remain areas, then you probably have a good feel for where might be vulnerable.
The chiffchaffs are singing and the clocks have changed but Alastair Meets is still droning about Brexit.
Get used to it! Brexit and its consequent recriminations will dominate the next decade. I can forsee that UKIP style feuding in other parties is likely to break out. The consequences for politicalbetting are going to be many fold. I expect further leadership contests, and dont think May is as secure as she looks. There will be further casualties, including the breakup of the UK itself.
If anyone thinks the EU will not do anything to clear the path for the breakup of the UK they are in for a rude awakening once May delivers her poison pen letter on Wednesday.
SCOTLAND and Northern Ireland could both remain in the EU pending an independence referendum, according to papers published by a European Parliament committee.
I'm too young to remember 1983 but Labour now feels much more irrelevant than the Tories in 2001, who were at least opposing Blair's eurofederalistic desires.
If he'd held and won a referendum on euro membership and the Tories had still been opposing it, that would have made them as irrelevant as the LDs are now.
A fair bit of wishful thinking there, my friend.
The Conservative message from the likes of Hague and Portillo in 2001 was "seven days to save the pound" which was more like "seven days to save us from a pounding". The Conservatives made a net gain of one seat from 165 to 166 so many fewer than Corbyn's Labour Party (or indeed Kinnock's Labour Party).
In many seats, the Conservatives actually went backward from 1997 (incredible as that may seem). Yes, the Conservatives were utterly and completely irrelevant then and to compound their irrelevance they then chose the hapless IDS as their leader.
Even in 2001 I still assumed that eventually there would be a recession and the Tories would get back into power because Labour would mess things up. I don't think the same is true for Labour now. Yes, the Tories will mess things up at some point, but I wouldn't assume that it'll be the Labour Party who benefits.
People always write the Labour Party off as irrelevant in opposition. They are always portrayed as being out of touch with their working class supporters as well. And they are always facing a bleak future where survival itself is in doubt. It's been going on since Labour got into parliament. It is almost part of the constitution.
One thing I will say about predicting which seats the LD will win is, many of the seats where they are now 2nd to Con will be hard to win back. The rural and semi-rural seats in the South West and elsewhere, where the Cons picked up in 2015, now have a new encumbrance bounce to the Cons favour, which combined with the Con rise in the national poles, put the Cons in a strong place, not to mention these seats are mostly pro Leave areas anyway.
But I suspect there will be other seats, mostly but not all Lab, that are venerable, especially if the candidate is new and has now built up personal vote, or is the wrong person for that type of seat, e.g. any member of Momentum almost anywhere, or a strong pro leave in a remain area.
The Whole thing will be confused by the new boundaries. but at this stage I would guess 20+ LDs
Ultimately, the Tories are up more on 2015 (+7, say) than the LDs (+3ish), and so you would expect the LDs to struggle to take seats from them. (And, indeed, they may well lose some.)
The LD-Lab spread, mind, looks like it might be as much as 10 points. And if you overlay very pro-Remain areas, then you probably have a good feel for where might be vulnerable.
If the current national polls reflect what actually happens in a General Election, then you are correct. If the By Elections in Witney and Richmond plus the local by elections are a better pointer then maybe not. The Lib Dems are not getting much publicity right now, I would expect them to pick up a few percent in a GE campaign, say 11% now 15% at a GE. However, what actually happens is probably more dependent on who leads the Labour party into the GE.
I'm too young to remember 1983 but Labour now feels much more irrelevant than the Tories in 2001, who were at least opposing Blair's eurofederalistic desires.
If he'd held and won a referendum on euro membership and the Tories had still been opposing it, that would have made them as irrelevant as the LDs are now.
A fair bit of wishful thinking there, my friend.
The Conservative message from the likes of Hague and Portillo in 2001 was "seven days to save the pound" which was more like "seven days to save us from a pounding". The Conservatives made a net gain of one seat from 165 to 166 so many fewer than Corbyn's Labour Party (or indeed Kinnock's Labour Party).
In many seats, the Conservatives actually went backward from 1997 (incredible as that may seem). Yes, the Conservatives were utterly and completely irrelevant then and to compound their irrelevance they then chose the hapless IDS as their leader.
Even in 2001 I still assumed that eventually there would be a recession and the Tories would get back into power because Labour would mess things up. I don't think the same is true for Labour now. Yes, the Tories will mess things up at some point, but I wouldn't assume that it'll be the Labour Party who benefits.
People always write the Labour Party off as irrelevant in opposition. They are always portrayed as being out of touch with their working class supporters as well. And they are always facing a bleak future where survival itself is in doubt. It's been going on since Labour got into parliament. It is almost part of the constitution.
They certainly weren't irrelevant in the last Parliament. All I would say is, just because Labour pulled through in 1983, doesn't mean it will happen again this time.
If anyone thinks the EU will not do anything to clear the path for the breakup of the UK they are in for a rude awakening once May delivers her poison pen letter on Wednesday.
SCOTLAND and Northern Ireland could both remain in the EU pending an independence referendum, according to papers published by a European Parliament committee.
Interesting to see how all that money England gives to Brussels is spent. Thanks.
If anyone thinks the EU will not do anything to clear the path for the breakup of the UK they are in for a rude awakening once May delivers her poison pen letter on Wednesday.
SCOTLAND and Northern Ireland could both remain in the EU pending an independence referendum, according to papers published by a European Parliament committee.
Interesting to see how all that money England gives to Brussels is spent. Thanks.
If anyone thinks the EU will not do anything to clear the path for the breakup of the UK they are in for a rude awakening once May delivers her poison pen letter on Wednesday.
SCOTLAND and Northern Ireland could both remain in the EU pending an independence referendum, according to papers published by a European Parliament committee.
Interesting to see how all that money England gives to Brussels is spent. Thanks.
Poor old William will clutch at any straw.
Glenn must have set his sights on a sybaritic career as a Brussels functionary. To have that prospect dashed can't be easy to absorb.
Someone called Owen Bennett who is apparently the writer behind a blog called the Huffington Post. From his Twitter photo he hasn't started shaving yet, which makes his opinions on when to step down from elected office unlikely to be based on personal experience.
His 'biography' did make me smile. "Author of #thebrexitclub (out now)" which brought forth a vocalised Pavlovian response of "No we aren't, yet!"
Comments
Meeks displays all his usual smugness & complacency.
In what sense are The Libdems crushed ?
In their membership, doubled over the last 5 Years ?
In Local Elections where they look likely to make big gains in May & again next May ?
In The Lords where they have a hundred Peers ?
The one place where The Libdems are weak is The House of Commons which has just voted to make itself irrelevant by giving May carte blanche on Brexit.
The near future is up for grabs.
Frische Zahlen zur #ltwsaar #Saarland CDU: 40,4%, SPD: 30,4%, Linke: 12,4%, Piraten: 0,7%, Grüne: 4,4%, FDP: 3,2%, AfD: 5,9%
CDU down a bit, SPD up a bit. Linke down,Greens out
Since they are County elections there will be far fewer seats than if it were District councils up for election.
Under New Labour joining the Euro was never really on the cards, not least after the mauling by the ERM.
Hagues "24 hours to save the pound" was always nonsense, as was demonstrated by the 2001 Labour government.
greens further down, Afd marginally up, CDU and SPD marginally down
3. Hochrechnung ARD 18.43 Uhr #SaarLTW17: CDU 40,1, SPD 30,1, Linke 13,0, Grüne 4,1, FDP 3,2, AfD 6,1, Piraten 0,7, Andere 2,7 #ltwSL #LTW17
CDU -23
SPD -18
Linke -7
AfD -3
26 needed for majority
I'm sticking with my 12-14 seats (on 12-14% vote share) forecast.
For potential LibDem gains it might be worth noting constituencies where the MP has proved 'controversial'. Bath might fall into this category.
But even so 12-14 seats on 12-14% vote share would sill be the LibDems second worse performance since 1970 - they really should be able to do better than that in the current circumstances.
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/846042790194761728
compared to the last election die Linke has dropped 3.5% of the vote and the AfD gained 6%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39397148
The CDU had a lead of 12 points in January (before the national Schultz surge)
Then their lead was cut to 1 or 2; largely because the SPD rounded up other votes not from the CDU;
Then it reverted to 5 points during the campaign.
It is now believed to have won a ten point victory, as in, something like their January lead BUT having won for themselves more votes.
Replicated nationally that would see Merkel home easily. I think 1.7 is now too long for most seats.
Note BTW that the CDU outdid their polling average by several %, at the expense of the SPD and minor parties, and Die Linke were also a bit higher than polling suggested. The polls were spot on for the (relatively poor) 6% AfD result, after showing them at 10% as recently as January. The AfD isn't toast yet, but they seem on the slide.
Speaking of idiotic directors of the CPS, I was surprised to read (Daily Mail yesterday) of the judge basically giving a bollocking to the incumbent director of the CPS over reform of rape trials and prosecution rates, saying, basically, that an incident that is disputed between two people who know each other, give differing accounts and occurred in private is bound (and right) to often lead to not guilty verdicts.
The CPS director wibbled in response about victim-blaming.
Except that presupposes a plaintiff is a victim, and the two terms are not synonymous. Claiming they are supposes that plaintiffs never lie, and accusations are as good as perfect evidence of guilt.
That sort of deranged thinking is not conducive to justice.
Are there other regional elections to come?
Kingston & Surbiton constituency is given as 58.5% Remain here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016#Result_by_constituency
And with the LibDems already having Twickenham, Richmond Park and Carshalton to concentrate on in SW London do they have the resources to chase a much harder seat ?
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/06/20/article-2662719-1EEE326200000578-499_634x359.jpg
LibDem gains tend to be more unexpected than expected.
For example in 1983 I doubt many people would have expected Ashdown and Kennedy to have won but they did while many where they were expected to win they didn't (Islington South often features in this category).
That being said, next year's locals in London will be fascinating.
Goodness me 1983 was close in Islington South, wasn't it.
You've hidden that so well up to now.
*edit, perhaps objective counterpoint would be a fairer phrase.
1987 Lab maj 805
2005 Lab maj 484
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/australia-post-race-analysis-2017.html
Was a pretty good race from a betting perspective. All three tips came off, which was quite surprising, and there were two more winners suggested in the comments.
But I suspect there will be other seats, mostly but not all Lab, that are venerable, especially if the candidate is new and has now built up personal vote, or is the wrong person for that type of seat, e.g. any member of Momentum almost anywhere, or a strong pro leave in a remain area.
The Whole thing will be confused by the new boundaries. but at this stage I would guess 20+ LDs
I can highly recommend it.
The LD-Lab spread, mind, looks like it might be as much as 10 points. And if you overlay very pro-Remain areas, then you probably have a good feel for where might be vulnerable.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/03/life-after-no-10-is-not-what-david-cameron-was-hoping-for/
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15182289.Scotland__could_remain_in_EU_after_Brexit_/
SCOTLAND and Northern Ireland could both remain in the EU pending an independence referendum, according to papers published by a European Parliament committee.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-39399552
https://twitter.com/newdawn1997/status/846070426254106624
He can no longer play the ‘I’m a great democrat’ card - because he’s not.
He can no longer argue that politics is a cartel dominated by people who don’t want to give up power - because he is one of them.
He can no longer lambast his fellow politicians for breaking promises made to voters - because he has done the same."
https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/846035692824219648
So - obviously he spends his free time in Hungary.
LOL
By interesting I mean not good for the national interest.
Tisztelt Meeks úr!
Kindly remit 100,000 forints and oblige.
Your contribution to state funds will pay for 5 shipping containers, 1000 m of razor wire and the wages of 5 psychopathic border guards for a year.
Pocorn time (or its Jacobean equivalent). Dance monkeys, dance.
Click on the link and it reveals the full story
His 'biography' did make me smile. "Author of #thebrexitclub (out now)" which brought forth a vocalised Pavlovian response of "No we aren't, yet!"
[edited for spelling]