Macron wins unless something comes up. I wouldn't characterise that as a "black swan," though, since the possibility that something will come up must be reasonably high given Russia's interest in this election. I agree he's value at present.
Yes, I wouldn't go as far as David H who said he thought the odds ought to be 1.2 or even shorter. Stuff happens, and there are still several weeks to go.
The first round is one month tomorrow.
I'd still stick with my assessment. Sure, 'stuff' can happen but who is there now to benefit? It will be enormously hard for Fillon to recover, I can see how Le Pen wins but it's a very tough ask, and there's no-one else who can credibly come through: Hamon and Melenchon are limited in their appeal.
Even if Macron were to be hit by a scandal now, the weakness of his opponents makes his campaign much better able to withstand it than it would've been a couple of months ago.
I've just listened to PMQs for the first time for ages.
!. Mrs May is much improved. In fact she's very good 2. Most of the questions are articulate with only rare exceptions. 3. Corbyn isn't very good-worse than his backbench MPs-which is why I imagine most of them have had enough 4. It's quite refreshing having so many Scots and Irish questions
I've just listened to PMQs for te first time for ages.
!. Mrs May is much improved. In fact she's very good 2. Most of the questions are articulate too with only rare exceptions. 3. Corbyn isn't very good-worse than his backbench MPs-which is why I imagine most of them have had enough 4. It's quite refreshing having so many Scots and Irish questions
Macron wins unless something comes up. I wouldn't characterise that as a "black swan," though, since the possibility that something will come up must be reasonably high given Russia's interest in this election. I agree he's value at present.
Yes, I wouldn't go as far as David H who said he thought the odds ought to be 1.2 or even shorter. Stuff happens, and there are still several weeks to go.
The first round is one month tomorrow.
I'd still stick with my assessment. Sure, 'stuff' can happen but who is there now to benefit? It will be enormously hard for Fillon to recover, I can see how Le Pen wins but it's a very tough ask, and there's no-one else who can credibly come through: Hamon and Melenchon are limited in their appeal.
Even if Macron were to be hit by a scandal now, the weakness of his opponents makes his campaign much better able to withstand it than it would've been a couple of months ago.
Let's say - Macron's support is actually 24%, lower than the polls suggest. 3% of previous Fillon supporters return to him, putting him on say 21%.
I note Elon Musks's obvious behind the scenes soft diplomacy has paid off with Trump as he has signed off the Mars bill. It's nice to have one multi billionaire in this world who'd spend the money the same way I would if I had it :>
YouGov has quite a bit on attitude to immigrants- which varies substantially by home country, and while white folks are generally preferred, far from all of them are and there are marked differences within South Asia.
Overall, do you think immigrants from each of the following parts of the world make a positive or negative contribution to life in Britain today?
It would seem that the British public think Romanian = Roma.
I am married to a Bulgarian. The level of ignorance displayed by Britons towards Bulgaria and Romania, and the Balkans, is astonishing.
And that's amongst all Britons, incidentally. Including graduates and post graduates working in the professional sector in London, one of whom once asked if they used cutlery in Bulgaria to eat their national cuisine.
In all fairness, the Balkans is not an area where Britain has deep ties of history or mass migration, and in tourist terms it's still miles behind Western Europe in terms of popularity.
Their ignorance just shows how being pro-EU is, for many, about striking a pose, rather than being derived from deep knowledge about our neighbours and the EU institutions.
How many foreign languages do Clarke and Heseltine speak? None. Compare and contrast with Hannan.
All true.
But visit Plovdiv. A terrific Bulgarian city with virtually zero (or absolutely zero at times) British tourists.
The Roman amphitheater and old town are sublime, and the food and beer is very affordable and the ladies very smartly turned out ;-)
The vineyards nearby are also well worth a visit.
You'll get no argument from me! When you're next in that neck of the woods you should visit Sinaia and Brasov in Transylvania. Both beautiful and free of tourist hordes.
YouGov has quite a bit on attitude to immigrants- which varies substantially by home country, and while white folks are generally preferred, far from all of them are and there are marked differences within South Asia.
Overall, do you think immigrants from each of the following parts of the world make a positive or negative contribution to life in Britain today?
It would seem that the British public think Romanian = Roma.
I am married to a Bulgarian. The level of ignorance displayed by Britons towards Bulgaria and Romania, and the Balkans, is astonishing.
And that's amongst all Britons, incidentally. Including graduates and post graduates working in the professional sector in London, one of whom once asked if they used cutlery in Bulgaria to eat their national cuisine.
In all fairness, the Balkans is not an area where Britain has deep ties of history or mass migration, and in tourist terms it's still miles behind Western Europe in terms of popularity.
Their ignorance just shows how being pro-EU is, for many, about striking a pose, rather than being derived from deep knowledge about our neighbours and the EU institutions.
How many foreign languages do Clarke and Heseltine speak? None. Compare and contrast with Hannan.
Hannan can be ridiculous in several languages. So can Boris. Not sure what that proves.
You do have to wonder about Scottish education (Maths, Geography, History) when one very young Nat MP complained about a single city in England (London) having more MPs than Scotland......
I wonder if she read any of the replies.
You're assuming she can read.......
The arriviste snobbery of the Scotch migrant made good, always a joy.
Amazing how all the losers that left hate Scotland so much and decry anything and everything , trying to justify themselves no doubt , could not make it at home so have to denigrate it. Sad little people trying to ingratiate themselves with the locals.
No True Scot would dream of criticising the SNP.....
The upshod of this fake indyref2 seems to be Mrs Sturgeon is diminished and others like Mr Salmond have benefited somewhat.
Whether this is a coincidence or not is up for speculation.
Macron wins unless something comes up. I wouldn't characterise that as a "black swan," though, since the possibility that something will come up must be reasonably high given Russia's interest in this election. I agree he's value at present.
Yes, I wouldn't go as far as David H who said he thought the odds ought to be 1.2 or even shorter. Stuff happens, and there are still several weeks to go.
The first round is one month tomorrow.
I'd still stick with my assessment. Sure, 'stuff' can happen but who is there now to benefit? It will be enormously hard for Fillon to recover, I can see how Le Pen wins but it's a very tough ask, and there's no-one else who can credibly come through: Hamon and Melenchon are limited in their appeal.
Even if Macron were to be hit by a scandal now, the weakness of his opponents makes his campaign much better able to withstand it than it would've been a couple of months ago.
Let's say - Macron's support is actually 24%, lower than the polls suggest. 3% of previous Fillon supporters return to him, putting him on say 21%.
It's a close enough race.
If, as an outside agency, I wanted Le Pen to win, I'd think it was going well enough so far (given that it was a project that never had much chance of success).
Le Pen v a compromised Macron is presumably much more winnable than Le Pen v a compromised Fillon [ignore present polling, since Macron isn't yet compromised!]
YouGov has quite a bit on attitude to immigrants- which varies substantially by home country, and while white folks are generally preferred, far from all of them are and there are marked differences within South Asia.
Overall, do you think immigrants from each of the following parts of the world make a positive or negative contribution to life in Britain today?
It would seem that the British public think Romanian = Roma.
I am married to a Bulgarian. The level of ignorance displayed by Britons towards Bulgaria and Romania, and the Balkans, is astonishing.
And that's amongst all Britons, incidentally. Including graduates and post graduates working in the professional sector in London, one of whom once asked if they used cutlery in Bulgaria to eat their national cuisine.
In all fairness, the Balkans is not an area where Britain has deep ties of history or mass migration, and in tourist terms it's still miles behind Western Europe in terms of popularity.
Their ignorance just shows how being pro-EU is, for many, about striking a pose, rather than being derived from deep knowledge about our neighbours and the EU institutions.
How many foreign languages do Clarke and Heseltine speak? None. Compare and contrast with Hannan.
Hannan can be ridiculous in several languages. So can Boris. Not sure what that proves.
Nick Clegg speaks more languages than Farage.
You'd expect that given their pedigree to be honest though.
I've just listened to PMQs for te first time for ages.
!. Mrs May is much improved. In fact she's very good 2. Most of the questions are articulate too with only rare exceptions. 3. Corbyn isn't very good-worse than his backbench MPs-which is why I imagine most of them have had enough 4. It's quite refreshing having so many Scots and Irish questions
Those are fair comments Roger
Laura Kuenssberg didn't agree. She implied Corbyn got the better of her.
YouGov has quite a bit on attitude to immigrants- which varies substantially by home country, and while white folks are generally preferred, far from all of them are and there are marked differences within South Asia.
Overall, do you think immigrants from each of the following parts of the world make a positive or negative contribution to life in Britain today?
It would seem that the British public think Romanian = Roma.
I am married to a Bulgarian. The level of ignorance displayed by Britons towards Bulgaria and Romania, and the Balkans, is astonishing.
And that's amongst all Britons, incidentally. Including graduates and post graduates working in the professional sector in London, one of whom once asked if they used cutlery in Bulgaria to eat their national cuisine.
In all fairness, the Balkans is not an area where Britain has deep ties of history or mass migration, and in tourist terms it's still miles behind Western Europe in terms of popularity.
Their ignorance just shows how being pro-EU is, for many, about striking a pose, rather than being derived from deep knowledge about our neighbours and the EU institutions.
How many foreign languages do Clarke and Heseltine speak? None. Compare and contrast with Hannan.
All true.
But visit Plovdiv. A terrific Bulgarian city with virtually zero (or absolutely zero at times) British tourists.
The Roman amphitheater and old town are sublime, and the food and beer is very affordable and the ladies very smartly turned out ;-)
The vineyards nearby are also well worth a visit.
Mind you does being free of British tourists also equate to no-one speaking English?
Listened to PMQs on the radio. May sounded rather like Thatcher at times.
Just a comment: I'll leave it up to the readers to decide if that's good or bad.
She's deliberately working on it imho. Says plenty about her....
Or, just as Mrs T did when new in the job, she is getting various coaching support regarding her performance, and is merely getting the same sort of advice.
Macron wins unless something comes up. I wouldn't characterise that as a "black swan," though, since the possibility that something will come up must be reasonably high given Russia's interest in this election. I agree he's value at present.
Yes, I wouldn't go as far as David H who said he thought the odds ought to be 1.2 or even shorter. Stuff happens, and there are still several weeks to go.
The first round is one month tomorrow.
I'd still stick with my assessment. Sure, 'stuff' can happen but who is there now to benefit? It will be enormously hard for Fillon to recover, I can see how Le Pen wins but it's a very tough ask, and there's no-one else who can credibly come through: Hamon and Melenchon are limited in their appeal.
Even if Macron were to be hit by a scandal now, the weakness of his opponents makes his campaign much better able to withstand it than it would've been a couple of months ago.
Let's say - Macron's support is actually 24%, lower than the polls suggest. 3% of previous Fillon supporters return to him, putting him on say 21%.
It's a close enough race.
Well, yeeees, but that's supposing two things for which there's little evidence and which even if both were accepted would still leave Macron ahead.
Macron wins unless something comes up. I wouldn't characterise that as a "black swan," though, since the possibility that something will come up must be reasonably high given Russia's interest in this election. I agree he's value at present.
Yes, I wouldn't go as far as David H who said he thought the odds ought to be 1.2 or even shorter. Stuff happens, and there are still several weeks to go.
The first round is one month tomorrow.
I'd still stick with my assessment. Sure, 'stuff' can happen but who is there now to benefit? It will be enormously hard for Fillon to recover, I can see how Le Pen wins but it's a very tough ask, and there's no-one else who can credibly come through: Hamon and Melenchon are limited in their appeal.
Even if Macron were to be hit by a scandal now, the weakness of his opponents makes his campaign much better able to withstand it than it would've been a couple of months ago.
Let's say - Macron's support is actually 24%, lower than the polls suggest. 3% of previous Fillon supporters return to him, putting him on say 21%.
It's a close enough race.
If, as an outside agency, I wanted Le Pen to win, I'd think it was going well enough so far (given that it was a project that never had much chance of success).
Le Pen v a compromised Macron is presumably much more winnable than Le Pen v a compromised Fillon [ignore present polling, since Macron isn't yet compromised!]
Especially as the Russians are keeping their Macron stuff to the runoff
I've just listened to PMQs for te first time for ages.
!. Mrs May is much improved. In fact she's very good 2. Most of the questions are articulate too with only rare exceptions. 3. Corbyn isn't very good-worse than his backbench MPs-which is why I imagine most of them have had enough 4. It's quite refreshing having so many Scots and Irish questions
Those are fair comments Roger
Laura Kuenssberg didn't agree. She implied Corbyn got the better of her.
Corbyn was a lot better than last week - but still wasn't great - May is getting better as she masters her brief, but will never be a star commons performer - hopefully enough Tory MPs remember how far having a true PMQs star (Hague) got them last time....
Macron wins unless something comes up. I wouldn't characterise that as a "black swan," though, since the possibility that something will come up must be reasonably high given Russia's interest in this election. I agree he's value at present.
Yes, I wouldn't go as far as David H who said he thought the odds ought to be 1.2 or even shorter. Stuff happens, and there are still several weeks to go.
The first round is one month tomorrow.
I'd still stick with my assessment. Sure, 'stuff' can happen but who is there now to benefit? It will be enormously hard for Fillon to recover, I can see how Le Pen wins but it's a very tough ask, and there's no-one else who can credibly come through: Hamon and Melenchon are limited in their appeal.
Even if Macron were to be hit by a scandal now, the weakness of his opponents makes his campaign much better able to withstand it than it would've been a couple of months ago.
Let's say - Macron's support is actually 24%, lower than the polls suggest. 3% of previous Fillon supporters return to him, putting him on say 21%.
It's a close enough race.
Well, yeeees, but that's supposing two things for which there's little evidence and which even if both were accepted would still leave Macron ahead.
Check the certainty to vote figures if you haven't already.
I think fair value is tighter than 1.54, maybe 1.4. But not 1.2.
Macron wins unless something comes up. I wouldn't characterise that as a "black swan," though, since the possibility that something will come up must be reasonably high given Russia's interest in this election. I agree he's value at present.
Yes, I wouldn't go as far as David H who said he thought the odds ought to be 1.2 or even shorter. Stuff happens, and there are still several weeks to go.
The first round is one month tomorrow.
I'd still stick with my assessment. Sure, 'stuff' can happen but who is there now to benefit? It will be enormously hard for Fillon to recover, I can see how Le Pen wins but it's a very tough ask, and there's no-one else who can credibly come through: Hamon and Melenchon are limited in their appeal.
Even if Macron were to be hit by a scandal now, the weakness of his opponents makes his campaign much better able to withstand it than it would've been a couple of months ago.
Let's say - Macron's support is actually 24%, lower than the polls suggest. 3% of previous Fillon supporters return to him, putting him on say 21%.
17.4% rise in Spanish exports in January and no help with a currently devaluation. Exports are now at an historic high. The European economy is moving ahead, so no wonder we are doing well.
What many economists seem to have missed about Brexit is not only the resilience of the UK economy, but also that the vote would not derail Europe generally.
I agree that the UK is resilient and can cope with the odd shock. But isn't that a good example of how the EU has been good for building our capabilities, just like we were told it would back in the seventies?
Macron wins unless something comes up. I wouldn't characterise that as a "black swan," though, since the possibility that something will come up must be reasonably high given Russia's interest in this election. I agree he's value at present.
Yes, I wouldn't go as far as David H who said he thought the odds ought to be 1.2 or even shorter. Stuff happens, and there are still several weeks to go.
The first round is one month tomorrow.
I'd still stick with my assessment. Sure, 'stuff' can happen but who is there now to benefit? It will be enormously hard for Fillon to recover, I can see how Le Pen wins but it's a very tough ask, and there's no-one else who can credibly come through: Hamon and Melenchon are limited in their appeal.
Even if Macron were to be hit by a scandal now, the weakness of his opponents makes his campaign much better able to withstand it than it would've been a couple of months ago.
Let's say - Macron's support is actually 24%, lower than the polls suggest. 3% of previous Fillon supporters return to him, putting him on say 21%.
It's a close enough race.
Well, yeeees, but that's supposing two things for which there's little evidence and which even if both were accepted would still leave Macron ahead.
Check the certainty to vote figures if you haven't already.
I think fair value is tighter than 1.54, maybe 1.4. But not 1.2.
You do have to wonder about Scottish education (Maths, Geography, History) when one very young Nat MP complained about a single city in England (London) having more MPs than Scotland......
I wonder if she read any of the replies.
You're assuming she can read.......
The arriviste snobbery of the Scotch migrant made good, always a joy.
Amazing how all the losers that left hate Scotland so much and decry anything and everything , trying to justify themselves no doubt , could not make it at home so have to denigrate it. Sad little people trying to ingratiate themselves with the locals.
No True Scot would dream of criticising the SNP.....
The upshod of this fake indyref2 seems to be Mrs Sturgeon is diminished and others like Mr Salmond have benefited somewhat.
Whether this is a coincidence or not is up for speculation.
The opinion in Scotland seems divided on whether Sturgeon is being smart or stupid. The reality is that events will move faster than the indy ref2. By staking a claim as an opponent to hard Brexit she risks little.
I was driving to a conference last week with a colleague listening to Salmond on LBC. I vote to stay in UK and EC as I am a multi-nationalist and he voted to leave both as he prefers small government. Neither of us have a voice at the moment and in Scotland that makes us the largest group. Sturgeon view gets about 30% and TM view about 25%. The electorate is very mobile at the moment especially in Scotland.
At the sharp end of business there is no doubt Brexit beginning to bite. Inflation in our sector is more like 5% than 2%. The NHS is truly short of cash and worse skilled staff. We are also struggling to find good employees. On one level government understands it relies on business more than ever but on the other hand we are the only real source of income the Government has it can squeeze. Thus the NI revolt and the upcoming business rates fight.
17.4% rise in Spanish exports in January and no help with a currently devaluation. Exports are now at an historic high. The European economy is moving ahead, so no wonder we are doing well.
What many economists seem to have missed about Brexit is not only the resilience of the UK economy, but also that the vote would not derail Europe generally.
I agree that the UK is resilient and can cope with the odd shock. But isn't that a good example of how the EU has been good for building our capabilities, just like we were told it would back in the seventies?
No it shows how privatisation was good for building our capabilities, just like we were told it would back in the eighties.
People seem to forget the mess the economy was in nearly a decade after we joined Euroe. The winter of discontent wasn't before we joined the EEC.
I've just listened to PMQs for te first time for ages.
!. Mrs May is much improved. In fact she's very good 2. Most of the questions are articulate too with only rare exceptions. 3. Corbyn isn't very good-worse than his backbench MPs-which is why I imagine most of them have had enough 4. It's quite refreshing having so many Scots and Irish questions
Those are fair comments Roger
Laura Kuenssberg didn't agree. She implied Corbyn got the better of her.
Corbyn was a lot better than last week - but still wasn't great - May is getting better as she masters her brief, but will never be a star commons performer - hopefully enough Tory MPs remember how far having a true PMQs star (Hague) got them last time....
I Liked her not appearing to play to the gallery as I did the back benchers who were more interested in her answers than their own questions. I think the days of extravagant theatre are over and people are setting more store by politicians who seem honest and genuine. In these dismal days of Trump I think Merkel and May could set a good example
Just got a two sided, personally addressed letter from Andy Street. "Conservative" or variants of the word don't appear on it anywhere. No tory logo. Green colour scheme.
The party isn't even mentioned in the tiny "promoted by" text at the bottom.
Is it even legal to print election campaign material without any indication of which party is funding your campaign?
You do have to wonder about Scottish education (Maths, Geography, History) when one very young Nat MP complained about a single city in England (London) having more MPs than Scotland......
I wonder if she read any of the replies.
You're assuming she can read.......
The arriviste snobbery of the Scotch migrant made good, always a joy.
Amazing how all the losers that left hate Scotland so much and decry anything and everything , trying to justify themselves no doubt , could not make it at home so have to denigrate it. Sad little people trying to ingratiate themselves with the locals.
No True Scot would dream of criticising the SNP.....
The upshod of this fake indyref2 seems to be Mrs Sturgeon is diminished and others like Mr Salmond have benefited somewhat.
Whether this is a coincidence or not is up for speculation.
SNP support appears solid at 45%+ - these are early days !!
You do have to wonder about Scottish education (Maths, Geography, History) when one very young Nat MP complained about a single city in England (London) having more MPs than Scotland......
I wonder if she read any of the replies.
You're assuming she can read.......
The arriviste snobbery of the Scotch migrant made good, always a joy.
Amazing how all the losers that left hate Scotland so much and decry anything and everything , trying to justify themselves no doubt , could not make it at home so have to denigrate it. Sad little people trying to ingratiate themselves with the locals.
No True Scot would dream of criticising the SNP.....
The upshod of this fake indyref2 seems to be Mrs Sturgeon is diminished and others like Mr Salmond have benefited somewhat.
Whether this is a coincidence or not is up for speculation.
SNP support appears solid at 45%+ - these are early days !!
Just got a two sided, personally addressed letter from Andy Street. "Conservative" or variants of the word don't appear on it anywhere. No tory logo. Green colour scheme.
The party isn't even mentioned in the tiny "promoted by" text at the bottom.
He's very clearly giving the impression he's running as an independent.
I would have thought it a requirement somewhere? Very peculiar.
Just got a two sided, personally addressed letter from Andy Street. "Conservative" or variants of the word don't appear on it anywhere. No tory logo. Green colour scheme.
The party isn't even mentioned in the tiny "promoted by" text at the bottom.
Is it even legal to print election campaign material without any indication of which party is funding your campaign?
Last night a PB meet next Wednesday evening in central London was mooted. Any more interested? We have about 8 so far...
Wine bar is looking likely....unless SeanT can somehow sign more than 4 of us into the Groucho....
Is the criterion for attendance having voted LEAVE last year ? If so, I could attend.
I suspect my views on the future of "Global Britain" might not chime with the majority.
I'll back you up, Stodge.
Much appreciated, my friend. We still have the small matter of no venue as apparently every wine bar in London is hosting an A50 party (if we are to believe Dixie who knows all the senior Conservatives and has been invited to all the parties).
Just got a two sided, personally addressed letter from Andy Street. "Conservative" or variants of the word don't appear on it anywhere. No tory logo. Green colour scheme.
The party isn't even mentioned in the tiny "promoted by" text at the bottom.
Is it even legal to print election campaign material without any indication of which party is funding your campaign?
Ah, the SCon approach - although they did have the party name in the legal notice.
Don't be so naive you knows what they say about democracy. Politicians have largely tried to enrich people and they have largely succeeded. Of course there will be exceptions but we have the least bad system and have achieved the least bad outcomes over the past 50 years.
How have you been left behind in the fire service?
Absolutely.
The Fire Service is in Chaos. Funding cut across the board, piss poor management and Local Fire Authorities more concerned with empire building than the actual job. Not enough staff, fire deaths on the rise, standards cut to meet targets. I could go on, but it'd be boring..
Personally, I've not really been left behind so much, even though my total family income is about 40 grand a year, and not the 6 figure salary that seems to be the norm on here. I do know many people who struggle though. I interact with families and people of all cultures and ethnicities in my city, every day, and I genuinely see inequality, poverty, addiction, crime and vulnerable people and groups that are not sharing all the benefits that living in this country should grant. It's these people who want something different. They need something different. I don't go to fires in million pound mansions. I do go to fires in sublet flats that have far more people n them than there should be. Those poor sods at the Albanian car wash have to live somewhere.
JCR? Yeah, it probably is.
Hey - sorry I missed this.
Yes we have problems. But what in the name of the flying fuckmonster do you think a) Brexit or b) anything else short of revolution and @TwistedFireStopper becoming emperor can do to solve it?
Politics is the art of the possible. It is not a stop the world I want to get off magic potion. All those things you describe are bad things but not the fault of any particular party or system. As mentioned, politics is also something that attempts to solve those things in the context of scarce resource, internationally ever more competitive emerging nations, greed, weakness and any number of other things. You're tilting at windmills.
Plus as you acknowledge, you haven't been left behind.
Macron wins unless something comes up. I wouldn't characterise that as a "black swan," though, since the possibility that something will come up must be reasonably high given Russia's interest in this election. I agree he's value at present.
Yes, I wouldn't go as far as David H who said he thought the odds ought to be 1.2 or even shorter. Stuff happens, and there are still several weeks to go.
The first round is one month tomorrow.
I'd still stick with my assessment. Sure, 'stuff' can happen but who is there now to benefit? It will be enormously hard for Fillon to recover, I can see how Le Pen wins but it's a very tough ask, and there's no-one else who can credibly come through: Hamon and Melenchon are limited in their appeal.
Even if Macron were to be hit by a scandal now, the weakness of his opponents makes his campaign much better able to withstand it than it would've been a couple of months ago.
Let's say - Macron's support is actually 24%, lower than the polls suggest. 3% of previous Fillon supporters return to him, putting him on say 21%.
It's a close enough race.
Well, yeeees, but that's supposing two things for which there's little evidence and which even if both were accepted would still leave Macron ahead.
Check the certainty to vote figures if you haven't already.
I think fair value is tighter than 1.54, maybe 1.4. But not 1.2.
I'd say 1.1 is fair value.
You're all crazy. The first round is a whole-spectrum primary. A month before their respective party primaries, Hamon was polling third and Fillon fourth.
The opinion in Scotland seems divided on whether Sturgeon is being smart or stupid. The reality is that events will move faster than the indy ref2. By staking a claim as an opponent to hard Brexit she risks little.
I was driving to a conference last week with a colleague listening to Salmond on LBC. I vote to stay in UK and EC as I am a multi-nationalist and he voted to leave both as he prefers small government. Neither of us have a voice at the moment and in Scotland that makes us the largest group. Sturgeon view gets about 30% and TM view about 25%. The electorate is very mobile at the moment especially in Scotland.
At the sharp end of business there is no doubt Brexit beginning to bite. Inflation in our sector is more like 5% than 2%. The NHS is truly short of cash and worse skilled staff. We are also struggling to find good employees. On one level government understands it relies on business more than ever but on the other hand we are the only real source of income the Government has it can squeeze. Thus the NI revolt and the upcoming business rates fight.
A fair summary. Brexit changes everything for Indyref. The question is whether the changes cancel each other out, in which case there is a good chance of Scotland staying in the Union. Unionism loses its simple message of "Stick with what you know", while nationalism retains its own simple question of "Who best speaks for Scotland?". Independence is boosted on that basis. On the other hand, the fact we have had a recent clear NO vote is a bigger factor than people are giving it credit for.
Those that criticise the SNP for neglecting their "day job" of running Scotland are somewhat missing the point. Although they won't admit it, the SNP and its supporters don't really care about education, police, health etc, and that's why they neglect them. They care about independence for Scotland and they are good on that stuff. However I think any SNP cleverness (or indeed stupidity) is coincidental. They will always do what they believe in, which is to push for independence, whether it's clever or not.
Just got a two sided, personally addressed letter from Andy Street. "Conservative" or variants of the word don't appear on it anywhere. No tory logo. Green colour scheme.
The party isn't even mentioned in the tiny "promoted by" text at the bottom.
He's very clearly giving the impression he's running as an independent.
I would have thought it a requirement somewhere? Very peculiar.
Have nominations closed - it maybe that it's not legally required until post-nominations
Macron wins unless something comes up. I wouldn't characterise that as a "black swan," though, since the possibility that something will come up must be reasonably high given Russia's interest in this election. I agree he's value at present.
Yes, I wouldn't go as far as David H who said he thought the odds ought to be 1.2 or even shorter. Stuff happens, and there are still several weeks to go.
The first round is one month tomorrow.
I'd still stick with my assessment. Sure, 'stuff' can happen but who is there now to benefit? It will be enormously hard for Fillon to recover, I can see how Le Pen wins but it's a very tough ask, and there's no-one else who can credibly come through: Hamon and Melenchon are limited in their appeal.
Even if Macron were to be hit by a scandal now, the weakness of his opponents makes his campaign much better able to withstand it than it would've been a couple of months ago.
Let's say - Macron's support is actually 24%, lower than the polls suggest. 3% of previous Fillon supporters return to him, putting him on say 21%.
It's a close enough race.
Well, yeeees, but that's supposing two things for which there's little evidence and which even if both were accepted would still leave Macron ahead.
Check the certainty to vote figures if you haven't already.
I think fair value is tighter than 1.54, maybe 1.4. But not 1.2.
I'd say 1.1 is fair value.
You're all crazy. The first round is a whole-spectrum primary. A month before their respective party primaries, Hamon was polling third and Fillon fourth.
Just got a two sided, personally addressed letter from Andy Street. "Conservative" or variants of the word don't appear on it anywhere. No tory logo. Green colour scheme.
The party isn't even mentioned in the tiny "promoted by" text at the bottom.
He's very clearly giving the impression he's running as an independent.
I would have thought it a requirement somewhere? Very peculiar.
Have nominations closed - it maybe that it's not legally required until post-nominations
Nominations definitely still open for council elections. April 4th seems to be the deadline.
Scotland’s Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) was developed as a result of an inquiry set-up by the then Labour government in Scotland. The inquiry reported its findings in 2004. However, the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) came to power in 2007 and it was up to the new government to oversee implementation. This represented something of a perfect storm. The SNP is effectively a single-issue political party dedicated to gaining Scotland’s independence from The United Kingdom. That’s what motivates their membership and their politicians. You can just imagine the new government’s relief at being presented an off-the-shelf solution for improving education, drawn-up by the experts. Who could reproach them for following expert advice? After all, we should leave politics out of education, right?
Those that criticise the SNP for neglecting their "day job" of running Scotland are somewhat missing the point. Although they won't admit it, the SNP and its supporters don't really care about education, police, health etc, and that's why they neglect them. They care about independence for Scotland and they are good on that stuff. However I think any SNP cleverness (or indeed stupidity) is coincidental. They will always do what they believe in, which is to push for independence, whether it's clever or not.
Macron wins unless something comes up. I wouldn't characterise that as a "black swan," though, since the possibility that something will come up must be reasonably high given Russia's interest in this election. I agree he's value at present.
Yes, I wouldn't go as far as David H who said he thought the odds ought to be 1.2 or even shorter. Stuff happens, and there are still several weeks to go.
The first round is one month tomorrow.
I'd still stick with my assessment. Sure, 'stuff' can happen but who is there now to benefit? It will be enormously hard for Fillon to recover, I can see how Le Pen wins but it's a very tough ask, and there's no-one else who can credibly come through: Hamon and Melenchon are limited in their appeal.
Even if Macron were to be hit by a scandal now, the weakness of his opponents makes his campaign much better able to withstand it than it would've been a couple of months ago.
Let's say - Macron's support is actually 24%, lower than the polls suggest. 3% of previous Fillon supporters return to him, putting him on say 21%.
It's a close enough race.
Well, yeeees, but that's supposing two things for which there's little evidence and which even if both were accepted would still leave Macron ahead.
Check the certainty to vote figures if you haven't already.
I think fair value is tighter than 1.54, maybe 1.4. But not 1.2.
I'd say 1.1 is fair value.
You're all crazy. The first round is a whole-spectrum primary. A month before their respective party primaries, Hamon was polling third and Fillon fourth.
Generals != Primaries
This isn't a general election.
The first round in the French presidential whittles the candidates down to two in an open vote. It does for the whole spectrum what the party primaries did for parts of it.
A quick point about Liverpool - both Anfield and Goodison Park are based in the Liverpool Walton constituency, which according to statisticians voted Leave by quite a heavy margin. Liverpool Riverside was probably what largely tipped Remain over the top in Liverpool as a whole.
Ladbrokes can't split the blues and the yellows (11-10 the pair). Labour 6-1 if you fancy them. I'd have thought the fact that Bristol a largish part would mean that they're live if nothing else ?
Just got a two sided, personally addressed letter from Andy Street. "Conservative" or variants of the word don't appear on it anywhere. No tory logo. Green colour scheme.
The party isn't even mentioned in the tiny "promoted by" text at the bottom.
Is it even legal to print election campaign material without any indication of which party is funding your campaign?
His website is certainly more "John Lewis" than "Conservative"
"Middlemarch Communications seeks to bridge the gap between our clients, Councils and communities through dialogue, consultation and representation to ensure success for everyone."
Macron wins unless something comes up. I wouldn't characterise that as a "black swan," though, since the possibility that something will come up must be reasonably high given Russia's interest in this election. I agree he's value at present.
Yes, I wouldn't go as far as David H who said he thought the odds ought to be 1.2 or even shorter. Stuff happens, and there are still several weeks to go.
The first round is one month tomorrow.
I'd still stick with my assessment. Sure, 'stuff' can happen but who is there now to benefit? It will be enormously hard for Fillon to recover, I can see how Le Pen wins but it's a very tough ask, and there's no-one else who can credibly come through: Hamon and Melenchon are limited in their appeal.
Even if Macron were to be hit by a scandal now, the weakness of his opponents makes his campaign much better able to withstand it than it would've been a couple of months ago.
Let's say - Macron's support is actually 24%, lower than the polls suggest. 3% of previous Fillon supporters return to him, putting him on say 21%.
It's a close enough race.
Well, yeeees, but that's supposing two things for which there's little evidence and which even if both were accepted would still leave Macron ahead.
Check the certainty to vote figures if you haven't already.
I think fair value is tighter than 1.54, maybe 1.4. But not 1.2.
I'd say 1.1 is fair value.
You're all crazy. The first round is a whole-spectrum primary. A month before their respective party primaries, Hamon was polling third and Fillon fourth.
Generals != Primaries
This isn't a general election.
The first round in the French presidential whittles the candidates down to two in an open vote. It does for the whole spectrum what the party primaries did for parts of it.
To an extent, but if you think that Macron's odds are too short (as you imply), you have to offer a credible scenario by which he loses, commensurate with the odds you think would be fair. Where and why are the votes going to go somewhere else?
YouGov has quite a bit on attitude to immigrants- which varies substantially by home country, and while white folks are generally preferred, far from all of them are and there are marked differences within South Asia.
Overall, do you think immigrants from each of the following parts of the world make a positive or negative contribution to life in Britain today?
It would seem that the British public think Romanian = Roma.
I am married to a Bulgarian. The level of ignorance displayed by Britons towards Bulgaria and Romania, and the Balkans, is astonishing.
And that's amongst all Britons, incidentally. Including graduates and post graduates working in the professional sector in London, one of whom once asked if they used cutlery in Bulgaria to eat their national cuisine.
In all fairness, the Balkans is not an area where Britain has deep ties of history or mass migration, and in tourist terms it's still miles behind Western Europe in terms of popularity.
Their ignorance just shows how being pro-EU is, for many, about striking a pose, rather than being derived from deep knowledge about our neighbours and the EU institutions.
How many foreign languages do Clarke and Heseltine speak? None. Compare and contrast with Hannan.
All true.
But visit Plovdiv. A terrific Bulgarian city with virtually zero (or absolutely zero at times) British tourists.
The Roman amphitheater and old town are sublime, and the food and beer is very affordable and the ladies very smartly turned out ;-)
The vineyards nearby are also well worth a visit.
Mind you does being free of British tourists also equate to no-one speaking English?
@pulpstar Local rag had Green MEP offering an electoral pact with LDs. Greens would back Williams if Scott Cato was given a free run at Bristol West. The independent John Savage stood as Labour Police Commissioner candidate in 2012. The Labour candidate is a parish councillor, a diversity manager with the NHS.
17.4% rise in Spanish exports in January and no help with a currently devaluation. Exports are now at an historic high. The European economy is moving ahead, so no wonder we are doing well.
What many economists seem to have missed about Brexit is not only the resilience of the UK economy, but also that the vote would not derail Europe generally.
I agree that the UK is resilient and can cope with the odd shock. But isn't that a good example of how the EU has been good for building our capabilities, just like we were told it would back in the seventies?
What we should have developed from the seventies onwards was a comprehensive trade agreement in goods and services (aka CETA) to build on EFTA, but never formally joined the EC/EU.
Unfortunately, all that trade stuff got very much tangled up in the political and economic union stuff - we crapped ourselves post-Suez and in the midst of decolonisation in the 1960s convinced ourselves we needed to bury ourselves deep in all of it or we'd be isolated from both the US and the (then) EEC, with no global role whatsoever once our Empire had gone - so that now (with respect to the EU) we will probably have to go one step back on trade integration first, before we can go forwards again.
A quick point about Liverpool - both Anfield and Goodison Park are based in the Liverpool Walton constituency, which according to statisticians voted Leave by quite a heavy margin. Liverpool Riverside was probably what largely tipped Remain over the top in Liverpool as a whole.
I wonder where you have got the figures for Crystal Palace? Croydon voter 54.3% Remain not 72.8% as this suggests. Selhurst the ward Selhurst Park is in voted majority Leave.
Comments
I'd still stick with my assessment. Sure, 'stuff' can happen but who is there now to benefit? It will be enormously hard for Fillon to recover, I can see how Le Pen wins but it's a very tough ask, and there's no-one else who can credibly come through: Hamon and Melenchon are limited in their appeal.
Even if Macron were to be hit by a scandal now, the weakness of his opponents makes his campaign much better able to withstand it than it would've been a couple of months ago.
!. Mrs May is much improved. In fact she's very good
2. Most of the questions are articulate with only rare exceptions.
3. Corbyn isn't very good-worse than his backbench MPs-which is why I imagine most of them have had enough
4. It's quite refreshing having so many Scots and Irish questions
I think this was more to do with Corbyn misrepresenting her.
It's a close enough race.
Sibiu sounds great too.
Whether this is a coincidence or not is up for speculation.
Le Pen v a compromised Macron is presumably much more winnable than Le Pen v a compromised Fillon [ignore present polling, since Macron isn't yet compromised!]
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/03/21/why-other-half-vote-scottish-independence-edition/
I think fair value is tighter than 1.54, maybe 1.4. But not 1.2.
http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1
The opinion in Scotland seems divided on whether Sturgeon is being smart or stupid. The reality is that events will move faster than the indy ref2. By staking a claim as an opponent to hard Brexit she risks little.
I was driving to a conference last week with a colleague listening to Salmond on LBC. I vote to stay in UK and EC as I am a multi-nationalist and he voted to leave both as he prefers small government. Neither of us have a voice at the moment and in Scotland that makes us the largest group. Sturgeon view gets about 30% and TM view about 25%. The electorate is very mobile at the moment especially in Scotland.
At the sharp end of business there is no doubt Brexit beginning to bite. Inflation in our sector is more like 5% than 2%. The NHS is truly short of cash and worse skilled staff. We are also struggling to find good employees. On one level government understands it relies on business more than ever but on the other hand we are the only real source of income the Government has it can squeeze. Thus the NI revolt and the upcoming business rates fight.
People seem to forget the mess the economy was in nearly a decade after we joined Euroe. The winter of discontent wasn't before we joined the EEC.
Just got a two sided, personally addressed letter from Andy Street. "Conservative" or variants of the word don't appear on it anywhere. No tory logo. Green colour scheme.
The party isn't even mentioned in the tiny "promoted by" text at the bottom.
Is it even legal to print election campaign material without any indication of which party is funding your campaign?
Yes we have problems. But what in the name of the flying fuckmonster do you think a) Brexit or b) anything else short of revolution and @TwistedFireStopper becoming emperor can do to solve it?
Politics is the art of the possible. It is not a stop the world I want to get off magic potion. All those things you describe are bad things but not the fault of any particular party or system. As mentioned, politics is also something that attempts to solve those things in the context of scarce resource, internationally ever more competitive emerging nations, greed, weakness and any number of other things. You're tilting at windmills.
Plus as you acknowledge, you haven't been left behind.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/man-who-claims-to-be-european-getting-on-everyones-tits-20170322124636
thetradenews.com/Technology/Bats-Europe-launches-Brexit-indices/
Those that criticise the SNP for neglecting their "day job" of running Scotland are somewhat missing the point. Although they won't admit it, the SNP and its supporters don't really care about education, police, health etc, and that's why they neglect them. They care about independence for Scotland and they are good on that stuff. However I think any SNP cleverness (or indeed stupidity) is coincidental. They will always do what they believe in, which is to push for independence, whether it's clever or not.
https://gregashman.wordpress.com/2017/03/22/learning-lessons-from-the-failure-of-scotlands-curriculum-for-excellence/
The first round in the French presidential whittles the candidates down to two in an open vote. It does for the whole spectrum what the party primaries did for parts of it.
http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2017-03-22/campaigns-continue-for-west-of-england-metro-mayor/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_British_Rail_Class_52_locomotives
Perhaps "Western Viceroy" would be a better choice of title (D1052)
https://andy4wm.co.uk/About-Andy-Street
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/166225/fs-imprints-npc.pdf
"If the promoter is acting on behalf of a group or organisation, you must also include the group or organisation’s name and address."
The wording at the bottom of my personally addressed campaign letter says;
"Promoted by Mike Dolley on behalf of Andy Street both of 8 Greenfield Crescent, Birmingham, B15 3BE"
http://www.middlemarchcomms.co.uk/
"Middlemarch Communications seeks to bridge the gap between our clients, Councils and communities through dialogue, consultation and representation to ensure success for everyone."
Edit - the elections that require a party imprint are parliamentary elections, to Westminster, the devolved administrations or the European Parliament: http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0014/193010/Factsheet-for-political-parties-Electronic-materials-and-imprints.pdf
http://www.sion-simon.com
Everyone under 40.
Or maybe not?
@pulpstar Local rag had Green MEP offering an electoral pact with LDs. Greens would back Williams if Scott Cato was given a free run at Bristol West. The independent John Savage stood as Labour Police Commissioner candidate in 2012. The Labour candidate is a parish councillor, a diversity manager with the NHS.
https://order-order.com/2017/03/22/labour-gorton-candidate-was-acquitted-of-mosque-assault/
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
Unfortunately, all that trade stuff got very much tangled up in the political and economic union stuff - we crapped ourselves post-Suez and in the midst of decolonisation in the 1960s convinced ourselves we needed to bury ourselves deep in all of it or we'd be isolated from both the US and the (then) EEC, with no global role whatsoever once our Empire had gone - so that now (with respect to the EU) we will probably have to go one step back on trade integration first, before we can go forwards again.
Have you signed up for our thunderclap yet?
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https://t.co/mshIEdrrDv
Reports of gunshots at Westminster.
Man shot by police outside Parliament.
Christopher Hope
Shots fired outside Parliament. Loud explosion then shooting. Man lying shot outside gates to Parliament. Gun shots outside, Frightening.
https://twitter.com/sikorskiradek/status/844561194207920130
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