...At this point, Macron seems a racing certainty, though of course one never rule out a black swan. ..
Still value at the current 1.53?
Yes. Should be no more than 1.2 or even lower.
Who is going to stop him?
Fillon? Mired in scandal and losing core supporters. Only on the ballot because it's too late to change and no other potential candidate willing to push it.
Le Pen? Ceiling still much higher than it was for her father but not high enough to beat all but the most flawed mainstream candidate.
Someone else? But how? Hamon going backwards from a long way back and Melenchon has an even lower ceiling than Le Pen.
OK but seriously as an intelligent person you must realise that our problems and their solutions are extremely complex and simply blaming the EU or the "metropolitan elite" doesn't really cut it. Do you really think for example that all the other 27 EU nations have happily given away their "sovereignty" and only we in the UK understand it properly and want to "take back control"?
I am struggling to think off a democratic nation of any political stripe where there are not swathes of people that feel disenfranchised or left behind. My problem is that I genuinely believe that leaving the EU will not help them. Same as Trump, right problem, wrong solution.
Leaving the EU will definitely make those problems much more difficult to solve. The tragedy is that the "liberal elite" (not particularly keen on that overloaded term but it will do here) failed to recognise there were problems until it was too late.
It's not really about the EU. Brexit, UKIP and Trump are all reactions to globalisation. In a highly interconnected world, success comes from playing the game well. Helping people to deal with globalisation would be much kinder and ultimately benefit everyone, rather than cynically saying, we can get you out of it and you will be so much better off.
Interesting stuff from you and Mr.T up-thread. However, you may wish to consider that you diagnosis of the reason why people voted to leave the EU may not be complete. People voted the way they did, on both sides, for a whole variety of reasons not just one. By ascribing a single motivation you risk misunderstanding what happened and what is going to happen.
More to the point, if you're going to ascribe one, it's the wrong one. They weren't narked off about globalization, they were narked off about immigration. What the heartlands of UKIPpery and Trumpery had in common was that they'd had basically no brown people since forever, then they had noticeable numbers of them.
That may be true in part for UKIPppery (albeit doesn't explain eg 43% vote to Leave in Surrey) but doesn't at all, I think, explain Trump. The Trump thing is about the US middle class not making any progress for a decade or more - more jobs being exported than 'brown' people being imported (which is only vanishingly tinily the case in flyover America).
I know, it's a bummer. Waitrose have also stopped providing free copies of the Guardian to browse while sipping your Rainforest Alliance coffee. What are the Liberal Elite going to do with their leisure time now?
Cheers TFS well I am a third way bore , I liked the Bill. Clinton ,92 Blair 2007 years Maybe because it was good for me which always colours your perceptions.
Surely May is the third way now, steering a path between metropolitan liberalism and provincial nativism?
As MP for Maidenhead, her constituency seems very apt for who she is aiming to please.
And of course, once you've lost your Maidenhead, you can't get it back.
You get the impression it wouldn't be easily taken away....
Well, the Lib Dems did try to - ahem - decapitate her...
Dear Lord you are a tit and a snob. The establishment have fixed things to their satisfaction for a long time and find it shocking, shocking I tell you, that those who haven't really shared in any joy from our EU membership chose to vote differently. I have an honours degree, two professional qualifications a six figure salary and yet I somehow was 'duped' into voting for the sovereignty of my own country's parliament because I'm an ignorant pleb? Up yours. You and your kind explain the vote and the ongoing divide.
He's thrashing about on your hook Roger, see if you can land him.
You'll never get him out of the water with that massive chip on his shoulder
Not sure I have a chip so much as being highly irked by an 'anti democratic elitist snob' telling me that I'm ignorant because I value democracy and our long term future more than I value money and any short term pain of readjusting.
OK but seriously as an intelligent person you must realise that our problems and their solutions are extremely complex and simply blaming the EU or the "metropolitan elite" doesn't really cut it. Do you really think for example that all the other 27 EU nations have happily given away their "sovereignty" and only we in the UK understand it properly and want to "take back control"?
I am struggling to think off a democratic nation of any political stripe where there are not swathes of people that feel disenfranchised or left behind. My problem is that I genuinely believe that leaving the EU will not help them. Same as Trump, right problem, wrong solution.
Yep - the well-off Brexit elite are going to be sitting pretty. Those further down the ladder may end up feeling less delighted with the results of taking back control.
The "left behind" were just the cannon fodder for the wealthy right-wing Brexiters.
Of course - it's hard to reconcile swivel-eyed right wing Brexiteers' enthusiasm for a low tax, minimal regulation, small state offshore UK with a genuine concern for the left behind or the plebs. But we are where we are.
Moreover, two Coventry wards which probably need to vote Tory for Street to win.
Sherbourne {2,706 Con 2,636 Lab}
Actual result:
Lab 1513 Con 593
Whoberly: {2,398 Con 2,262 Lab}
Lab 1747 Con 928
Now I know there has been a Lab -> Con swing in the last year, but unless the Labour vote really, really collapses (Alot more than even Copeland) then it should be Simon's to lose.
{} results are those required for Con Gain Coventry Northwest, which would probably imply a narrow Street win.
YouGov has quite a bit on attitude to immigrants- which varies substantially by home country, and while white folks are generally preferred, far from all of them are and there are marked differences within South Asia.
Overall, do you think immigrants from each of the following parts of the world make a positive or negative contribution to life in Britain today?
Moreover, two Coventry wards which probably need to vote Tory for Street to win.
Sherbourne {2,706 Con 2,636 Lab}
Actual result:
Lab 1513 Con 593
Whoberly: {2,398 Con 2,262 Lab}
Lab 1747 Con 928
Now I know there has been a Lab -> Con swing in the last year, but unless the Labour vote really, really collapses (Alot more than even Copeland) then it should be Simon's to lose.
{} results are those required for Con Gain Coventry Northwest, which would probably imply a narrow Street win.
Fair analysis, but Street is running as more than a Tory, it's a personal vote for a 'can-do' fellah who ran J Lewis.
Dear Lord you are a tit and a snob. The establishment have fixed things to their satisfaction for a long time and find it shocking, shocking I tell you, that those who haven't really shared in any joy from our EU membership chose to vote differently. I have an honours degree, two professional qualifications a six figure salary and yet I somehow was 'duped' into voting for the sovereignty of my own country's parliament because I'm an ignorant pleb? Up yours. You and your kind explain the vote and the ongoing divide.
He's thrashing about on your hook Roger, see if you can land him.
You'll never get him out of the water with that massive chip on his shoulder
Not sure I have a chip so much as being highly irked by an 'anti democratic elitist snob' telling me that I'm ignorant because I value democracy and our long term future more than I value money and any short term pain of readjusting.
OK but seriously as an intelligent person you must realise that our problems and their solutions are extremely complex and simply blaming the EU or the "metropolitan elite" doesn't really cut it. Do you really think for example that all the other 27 EU nations have happily given away their "sovereignty" and only we in the UK understand it properly and want to "take back control"?
I am struggling to think off a democratic nation of any political stripe where there are not swathes of people that feel disenfranchised or left behind. My problem is that I genuinely believe that leaving the EU will not help them. Same as Trump, right problem, wrong solution.
Yep - the well-off Brexit elite are going to be sitting pretty. Those further down the ladder may end up feeling less delighted with the results of taking back control.
The "left behind" were just the cannon fodder for the wealthy right-wing Brexiters.
However, real class-based abuse towards the "left behind" does tend to come from hardline Remainers, rather than hardline Brexiteers (eg Matthew Parris, Alex Massie, Ian Dunt, Roger, Tyson etc.)
Moreover, two Coventry wards which probably need to vote Tory for Street to win.
Sherbourne {2,706 Con 2,636 Lab}
Actual result:
Lab 1513 Con 593
Whoberly: {2,398 Con 2,262 Lab}
Lab 1747 Con 928
Now I know there has been a Lab -> Con swing in the last year, but unless the Labour vote really, really collapses (Alot more than even Copeland) then it should be Simon's to lose.
{} results are those required for Con Gain Coventry Northwest, which would probably imply a narrow Street win.
The thing that might help Street is differential turnout. Can the Cons get large numbers of voters out in places like Solihull in what might otherwise be a low turnout election?
YouGov has quite a bit on attitude to immigrants- which varies substantially by home country, and while white folks are generally preferred, far from all of them are and there are marked differences within South Asia.
Overall, do you think immigrants from each of the following parts of the world make a positive or negative contribution to life in Britain today?
Moreover, two Coventry wards which probably need to vote Tory for Street to win.
Sherbourne
Actual result:
Lab 1513 Con 593
Whoberly:
Lab 1747 Con 928
Now I know there has been a Lab -> Con swing in the last year, but unless the Labour vote really, really collapses (Alot more than even Copeland) then it should be Simon's to lose.
I am not a part of this vote, but I am nearby. My sense is that the West Midlands is going to be a bloodbath for Corbyn Labour electorally - at least up to and including the next general election. Simon may just squeak home because neither he nor the Tory candidate is well-known, so turnout is bound to be low. But if he does win, I would advise anyone to be very wary of seeing it as a wider, longer-term indicator. Corbyn could have been specifically designed to repel voters in this part of the world
OK but seriously as an intelligent person you must realise that our problems and their solutions are extremely complex and simply blaming the EU or the "metropolitan elite" doesn't really cut it. Do you really think for example that all the other 27 EU nations have happily given away their "sovereignty" and only we in the UK understand it properly and want to "take back control"?
I am struggling to think off a democratic nation of any political stripe where there are not swathes of people that feel disenfranchised or left behind. My problem is that I genuinely believe that leaving the EU will not help them. Same as Trump, right problem, wrong solution.
Leaving the EU will definitely make those problems much more difficult to solve. The tragedy is that the "liberal elite" (not particularly keen on that overloaded term but it will do here) failed to recognise there were problems until it was too late.
It's not really about the EU. Brexit, UKIP and Trump are all reactions to globalisation. In a highly interconnected world, success comes from playing the game well. Helping people to deal with globalisation would be much kinder and ultimately benefit everyone, rather than cynically saying, we can get you out of it and you will be so much better off.
Interesting stuff from you and Mr.T up-thread. However, you may wish to consider that you diagnosis of the reason why people voted to leave the EU may not be complete. People voted the way they did, on both sides, for a whole variety of reasons not just one. By ascribing a single motivation you risk misunderstanding what happened and what is going to happen.
More to the point, if you're going to ascribe one, it's the wrong one. They weren't narked off about globalization, they were narked off about immigration. What the heartlands of UKIPpery and Trumpery had in common was that they'd had basically no brown people since forever, then they had noticeable numbers of them.
The high levels of immigration are mostly driven by globalisation. You can either import the goods or import the people. Brexit certainly had significant support amongst non-European immigrants and while UKIP fails to attract support from non-whites I would say the party is mostly careful to distinguish between current immigration and race. The same incidentally with the SNP and non-Scottish born.
Thought I should say it before anywhere else but isn't United's area mainly London and hence even more remain?
But Tim Montgomerie, a big MUFC fan, is hardly in the remain camp.
Well so am I and I voted leave too. The table is another way of showing the divide between the big urban centres and the rest. Successful clubs tend to be in the former.
That's a good idea.......let all the unsuccessful struggling backwaters have a vote on how to bring the successful wealthy world ranked super-cities down to their level,
Genius! I wonder which Political giant thought of that one
And Roger wonders why Labour's struggling in what were once its heartlands?
The latest French poll, entirely post-debate, shows exactly the results that Chris from Paris and others predicted - a small Melanchon surge (+2) moving him past Hamon, and Macron edging up with Le Pen falling back.
At this point, Macron seems a racing certainty, though of course one never rule out a black swan.
Macron fidgeted so much during Monday's debate. If he manages to get into the second round, how will he cope when rather than having to speak a fifth of the time he has to speak for half of it?
If Macron is still polling twenty points clear of Mme Le Pen in second round polls, then there will be no head-to-head debate.
Thought I should say it before anywhere else but isn't United's area mainly London and hence even more remain?
But Tim Montgomerie, a big MUFC fan, is hardly in the remain camp.
Well so am I and I voted leave too. The table is another way of showing the divide between the big urban centres and the rest. Successful clubs tend to be in the former.
That's a good idea.......let all the unsuccessful struggling backwaters have a vote on how to bring the successful wealthy world ranked super-cities down to their level,
Genius! I wonder which Political giant thought of that one
And Roger wonders why Labour's struggling in what were once its heartlands?
Moreover, two Coventry wards which probably need to vote Tory for Street to win.
Sherbourne
Actual result:
Lab 1513 Con 593
Whoberly:
Lab 1747 Con 928
Now I know there has been a Lab -> Con swing in the last year, but unless the Labour vote really, really collapses (Alot more than even Copeland) then it should be Simon's to lose.
I am not a part of this vote, but I am nearby. My sense is that the West Midlands is going to be a bloodbath for Corbyn Labour electorally - at least up to and including the next general election. Simon may just squeak home because neither he nor the Tory candidate is well-known, so turnout is bound to be low. But if he does win, I would advise anyone to be very wary of seeing it as a wider, longer-term indicator. Corbyn could have been specifically designed to repel voters in this part of the world
I think Coventry South is a nailed on cert to go Conservative, and Coventry Northwest probably will as well. But I think the wards that make up Northwest collectively will vote Labour again in these elections, and the implied vote that that means in Birmingham and surrounds will be enough to see Simon home. If Simon loses, Coventry NorthEast doesn't look entirely safe for Labour at the next GE, and there isn't a single Conservative councillor in that seat.
Thought I should say it before anywhere else but isn't United's area mainly London and hence even more remain?
But Tim Montgomerie, a big MUFC fan, is hardly in the remain camp.
Well so am I and I voted leave too. The table is another way of showing the divide between the big urban centres and the rest. Successful clubs tend to be in the former.
That's a good idea.......let all the unsuccessful struggling backwaters have a vote on how to bring the successful wealthy world ranked super-cities down to their level,
Genius! I wonder which Political giant thought of that one
And Roger wonders why Labour's struggling in what were once its heartlands?
One of the wonders of modern politics is the way that so many politically engaged people make no attempt to disguise their loathing for large sections of the electorate, and are then surprised that these people don't vote for them.
YouGov has quite a bit on attitude to immigrants- which varies substantially by home country, and while white folks are generally preferred, far from all of them are and there are marked differences within South Asia.
Overall, do you think immigrants from each of the following parts of the world make a positive or negative contribution to life in Britain today?
It would seem that the British public think Romanian = Roma.
I am married to a Bulgarian. The level of ignorance displayed by Britons towards Bulgaria and Romania, and the Balkans, is astonishing.
And that's amongst all Britons, incidentally. Including graduates and post graduates working in the professional sector in London, one of whom once asked if they used cutlery in Bulgaria to eat their national cuisine.
YouGov has quite a bit on attitude to immigrants- which varies substantially by home country, and while white folks are generally preferred, far from all of them are and there are marked differences within South Asia.
Overall, do you think immigrants from each of the following parts of the world make a positive or negative contribution to life in Britain today?
The old "we are all Brexiters now" line is starting to feel a bit strained.
As stained as "we're all Remainers now"?
Curiously enough TUD omitted to mention the changes - zero and an moe +2 for remain...
I don't think anyone claimed there would be a mass conversion to Remain. Where as lots of people assured us that now that Brexit was happening there would be a tsunami of people switching from Remain to Brexit.
As someone commented on both Brexit and Trump - both were bricks thrown through the establishment's window - NOW will you listen?
I don't generally personalise things, but if you forgive me, I would say you are the most reliably establishment voice on here. The interesting point, though, is that in today's crazy world, the establishment needs to pretend to be "anti-establishment"
Yes, it's Alice through the looking glass stuff. The establishment has to pretend it's not the establishment so that it go on offering more of the same to itself and the little people without the little people noticing that they're still being shafted by the establishment.
FWIW I think May/Davidson are at risk of overplaying their hands - emboldened by a Sky Data "Poll" !!
I think that some people may have missed that the Sky Data poll was solely of Sky subscribers. Reweighed by Experian Mosaic demographics (if it is anything like other Sky Data polls) but absolutely not a random sampling of the population.
You do have to wonder about Scottish education (Maths, Geography, History) when one very young Nat MP complained about a single city in England (London) having more MPs than Scotland......
I wonder if she read any of the replies.
You're assuming she can read.......
The arriviste snobbery of the Scotch migrant made good, always a joy.
Amazing how all the losers that left hate Scotland so much and decry anything and everything , trying to justify themselves no doubt , could not make it at home so have to denigrate it. Sad little people trying to ingratiate themselves with the locals.
Last night a PB meet next Wednesday evening in central London was mooted. Any more interested? We have about 8 so far...
Wine bar is looking likely....unless SeanT can somehow sign more than 4 of us into the Groucho....
Is the criterion for attendance having voted LEAVE last year ? If so, I could attend.
I suspect my views on the future of "Global Britain" might not chime with the majority.
I'll back you up, Stodge.
Much appreciated, my friend. We still have the small matter of no venue as apparently every wine bar in London is hosting an A50 party (if we are to believe Dixie who knows all the senior Conservatives and has been invited to all the parties).
Of course - it's hard to reconcile swivel-eyed right wing Brexiteers' enthusiasm for a low tax, minimal regulation, small state offshore UK with a genuine concern for the left behind or the plebs. But we are where we are.
Hmmmm.. A. I'm a swivel eyed right winger who was already very keen on a low tax, minimal regulation, small state UK - way before Brexit came along. My Brexitishness is unconnected to that. B. Brexit: It's about identity, democracy and sovereignty. All Brits, plebs included, will benefit from having a vote that counts in future. My A thoughts are thoughts. Head not heart. Socialism doesn't work and tends inexorably towards serfdom. My B feelings are deeper. It's my heart not my head. It's visceral. I'll repeat yet again for the umpteenth time that the current count of PB remainers who are willing to post at all about identity, democracy and sovereignty remains stuck on zero.
I am very happy to post on identity, democracy and sovereignty, and have done so many times in the past.
It is absolutely clear to me that for a lot of people the Brexit vote was a cry of frustration and anger, and much of that was tied into an identity that they felt was under threat. But from what I can tell from history identity in its exclusionary form only becomes a live issue when people are not happy. People were (are) unhappy that living standards had stalled, that public services they rely on had been cut, that the wealthy bankers were getting away with it while they were being forced to take hit after hit - including high levels of immigration - and so on. Voting to quit the EU was the result. A lot of people felt that Brexit might change things for the better. We shall see; we live in a democratic, sovereign country, and so we are going to be leaving the EU at the end of March 2019.
The old "we are all Brexiters now" line is starting to feel a bit strained.
Unless those who thought it the wrong choice also think it was so wrong it needs to be reversed, not really. We are all Brexiting. I've not seen figures, but I would guess most don't support a rerun or simply not implementing, even though half still think it was wrong.
Let us never forget the PM is on record as thinking leaving would be wrong (unless she was lying, hardly a defence, or only saying so out of loyalty, which is also hardly a defence considering other senior people were willing to say what they thought), but agrees it is now the path we must take and she is picking what she thinks is the best approach. So unless she has publicly said she was wrong to back remain, she is one of those who thinks it was the wrong choice, but is committed to doing as good as she can with it nevertheless.
As someone commented on both Brexit and Trump - both were bricks thrown through the establishment's window - NOW will you listen?
I don't generally personalise things, but if you forgive me, I would say you are the most reliably establishment voice on here. The interesting point, though, is that in today's crazy world, the establishment needs to pretend to be "anti-establishment"
Yes, it's Alice through the looking glass stuff. The establishment has to pretend it's not the establishment so that it go on offering more of the same to itself and the little people without the little people noticing that they're still being shafted by the establishment.
One might observe it's an unsustainable strategy.
I am not sure it is unsustainable. The establishment presumably don't think so. They are well-"established" after all, which may indicate success.
Last night a PB meet next Wednesday evening in central London was mooted. Any more interested? We have about 8 so far...
Wine bar is looking likely....unless SeanT can somehow sign more than 4 of us into the Groucho....
Is the criterion for attendance having voted LEAVE last year ? If so, I could attend.
I suspect my views on the future of "Global Britain" might not chime with the majority.
I'll back you up, Stodge.
Much appreciated, my friend. We still have the small matter of no venue as apparently every wine bar in London is hosting an A50 party (if we are to believe Dixie who knows all the senior Conservatives and has been invited to all the parties).
Are the remainer parties in whine bars? Bum-tish. ThankyouverymuchImhereallweek.
YouGov has quite a bit on attitude to immigrants- which varies substantially by home country, and while white folks are generally preferred, far from all of them are and there are marked differences within South Asia.
Overall, do you think immigrants from each of the following parts of the world make a positive or negative contribution to life in Britain today?
It would seem that the British public think Romanian = Roma.
I am married to a Bulgarian. The level of ignorance displayed by Britons towards Bulgaria and Romania, and the Balkans, is astonishing.
And that's amongst all Britons, incidentally. Including graduates and post graduates working in the professional sector in London, one of whom once asked if they used cutlery in Bulgaria to eat their national cuisine.
In all fairness, the Balkans is not an area where Britain has deep ties of history or mass migration, and in tourist terms it's still miles behind Western Europe in terms of popularity.
Their ignorance just shows how being pro-EU is, for many, about striking a pose, rather than being derived from deep knowledge about our neighbours and the EU institutions.
How many foreign languages do Clarke and Heseltine speak? None. Compare and contrast with Hannan.
YouGov has quite a bit on attitude to immigrants- which varies substantially by home country, and while white folks are generally preferred, far from all of them are and there are marked differences within South Asia.
Overall, do you think immigrants from each of the following parts of the world make a positive or negative contribution to life in Britain today?
It would seem that the British public think Romanian = Roma.
What proportion of people from Romania living in Britain are Roma? It could well be a majority.
I think there are something like 200000 Romanian citizens here and the same number of Roma people, who come from Bulgaria and Slovakia and elsewhere as well as Romania.
YouGov has quite a bit on attitude to immigrants- which varies substantially by home country, and while white folks are generally preferred, far from all of them are and there are marked differences within South Asia.
Overall, do you think immigrants from each of the following parts of the world make a positive or negative contribution to life in Britain today?
It would seem that the British public think Romanian = Roma.
I am married to a Bulgarian. The level of ignorance displayed by Britons towards Bulgaria and Romania, and the Balkans, is astonishing.
And that's amongst all Britons, incidentally. Including graduates and post graduates working in the professional sector in London, one of whom once asked if they used cutlery in Bulgaria to eat their national cuisine.
Well don't leave us in suspense, how did you reply to that?!
You do have to wonder about Scottish education (Maths, Geography, History) when one very young Nat MP complained about a single city in England (London) having more MPs than Scotland......
I wonder if she read any of the replies.
You're assuming she can read.......
The arriviste snobbery of the Scotch migrant made good, always a joy.
Amazing how all the losers that left hate Scotland so much and decry anything and everything , trying to justify themselves no doubt , could not make it at home so have to denigrate it. Sad little people trying to ingratiate themselves with the locals.
No True Scot would dream of criticising the SNP.....
Thanks to @NickPalmer and @david_herdson for the comments on the Macron odds. I tend to agree that he's still value at 1.53 or so, although I'm a bit cautious about increasing my exposure as I'm already quite heavily red on Ms Le Pen.
Thanks to @NickPalmer and @david_herdson for the comments on the Macron odds. I tend to agree that he's still value at 1.53 or so, although I'm a bit cautious about increasing my exposure as I'm already quite heavily red on Ms Le Pen.
Quite simply I have already bet everything I am prepared to lose.
Dear Lord you are a tit and a snob. The establishment have fixed things to their satisfaction for a long time and find it shocking, shocking I tell you, that those who haven't really shared in any joy from our EU membership chose to vote differently. I have an honours degree, two professional qualifications a six figure salary and yet I somehow was 'duped' into voting for the sovereignty of my own country's parliament because I'm an ignorant pleb? Up yours. You and your kind explain the vote and the ongoing divide.
He's thrashing about on your hook Roger, see if you can land him.
You'll never get him out of the water with that massive chip on his shoulder
Not sure I have a chip so much as being highly irked by an 'anti democratic elitist snob' telling me that I'm ignorant because I value democracy and our long term future more than I value money and any short term pain of readjusting.
OK but seriously as an intelligent person you must realise that our problems and their solutions are extremely complex and simply blaming the EU or the "metropolitan elite" doesn't really cut it. Do you really think for example that all the other 27 EU nations have happily given away their "sovereignty" and only we in the UK understand it properly and want to "take back control"?
I am struggling to think off a democratic nation of any political stripe where there are not swathes of people that feel disenfranchised or left behind. My problem is that I genuinely believe that leaving the EU will not help them. Same as Trump, right problem, wrong solution.
Yep - the well-off Brexit elite are going to be sitting pretty. Those further down the ladder may end up feeling less delighted with the results of taking back control.
Thanks to @NickPalmer and @david_herdson for the comments on the Macron odds. I tend to agree that he's still value at 1.53 or so, although I'm a bit cautious about increasing my exposure as I'm already quite heavily red on Ms Le Pen.
I'm building up an increasing red position on Marine Le Pen. I'm comfortable with that.
Thanks to @NickPalmer and @david_herdson for the comments on the Macron odds. I tend to agree that he's still value at 1.53 or so, although I'm a bit cautious about increasing my exposure as I'm already quite heavily red on Ms Le Pen.
My position on Le Pen makes that taken by the speculators in the Big Short look tame.
Thanks to @NickPalmer and @david_herdson for the comments on the Macron odds. I tend to agree that he's still value at 1.53 or so, although I'm a bit cautious about increasing my exposure as I'm already quite heavily red on Ms Le Pen.
I'm building up an increasing red position on Marine Le Pen. I'm comfortable with that.
Thanks to @NickPalmer and @david_herdson for the comments on the Macron odds. I tend to agree that he's still value at 1.53 or so, although I'm a bit cautious about increasing my exposure as I'm already quite heavily red on Ms Le Pen.
I'm building up an increasing red position on Marine Le Pen. I'm comfortable with that.
Be careful, very very careful.
I only bet what I can afford to lose. Few bets are risk-free.
YouGov has quite a bit on attitude to immigrants- which varies substantially by home country, and while white folks are generally preferred, far from all of them are and there are marked differences within South Asia.
Overall, do you think immigrants from each of the following parts of the world make a positive or negative contribution to life in Britain today?
It would seem that the British public think Romanian = Roma.
I am married to a Bulgarian. The level of ignorance displayed by Britons towards Bulgaria and Romania, and the Balkans, is astonishing.
And that's amongst all Britons, incidentally. Including graduates and post graduates working in the professional sector in London, one of whom once asked if they used cutlery in Bulgaria to eat their national cuisine.
Well don't leave us in suspense, how did you reply to that?!
Oh, it wasn't to me. It was directly to my wife who is a very diplomatic person.
I think even she might have responded with some gentle sarcasm to that one, including mentioning 'yes', and that Bulgarians wear shoes as well.
Thanks to @NickPalmer and @david_herdson for the comments on the Macron odds. I tend to agree that he's still value at 1.53 or so, although I'm a bit cautious about increasing my exposure as I'm already quite heavily red on Ms Le Pen.
Macron wins unless something comes up. I wouldn't characterise that as a "black swan," though, since the possibility that something will come up must be reasonably high given Russia's interest in this election. I agree he's value at present.
Thanks to @NickPalmer and @david_herdson for the comments on the Macron odds. I tend to agree that he's still value at 1.53 or so, although I'm a bit cautious about increasing my exposure as I'm already quite heavily red on Ms Le Pen.
I'm building up an increasing red position on Marine Le Pen. I'm comfortable with that.
Thanks to @NickPalmer and @david_herdson for the comments on the Macron odds. I tend to agree that he's still value at 1.53 or so, although I'm a bit cautious about increasing my exposure as I'm already quite heavily red on Ms Le Pen.
Macron wins unless something comes up. I wouldn't characterise that as a "black swan," though, since the possibility that something will come up must be reasonably high given Russia's interest in this election. I agree he's value at present.
Macron should be about 1.34-1.36
I expect some form of scandal /mini scandal to break in the next 5 weeks, and his lightweightness / lack of experience put under the spotlight, but, that won't be anything near serious enough to break his election.
I note Elon Musks's obvious behind the scenes soft diplomacy has paid off with Trump as he has signed off the Mars bill. It's nice to have one multi billionaire in this world who'd spend the money the same way I would if I had it :>
YouGov has quite a bit on attitude to immigrants- which varies substantially by home country, and while white folks are generally preferred, far from all of them are and there are marked differences within South Asia.
Overall, do you think immigrants from each of the following parts of the world make a positive or negative contribution to life in Britain today?
It would seem that the British public think Romanian = Roma.
I am married to a Bulgarian. The level of ignorance displayed by Britons towards Bulgaria and Romania, and the Balkans, is astonishing.
And that's amongst all Britons, incidentally. Including graduates and post graduates working in the professional sector in London, one of whom once asked if they used cutlery in Bulgaria to eat their national cuisine.
In all fairness, the Balkans is not an area where Britain has deep ties of history or mass migration, and in tourist terms it's still miles behind Western Europe in terms of popularity.
Their ignorance just shows how being pro-EU is, for many, about striking a pose, rather than being derived from deep knowledge about our neighbours and the EU institutions.
How many foreign languages do Clarke and Heseltine speak? None. Compare and contrast with Hannan.
Hannan can be ridiculous in several languages. So can Boris. Not sure what that proves.
I doubt it, Mr. Borough, but I think education ought to be. However, I have thought that about ever GE since about 1964.
I think 'grammar' is a handle word that can be easily used in debate. They want grammars, they want to go backwards etc etc. It is something voters will notice and remember.
I'm not saying it will work for Labour, I honestly don't know and clearly the other issues will trump it if Corbyn and clowns are still leading.
Today's PMQ's is prime example of why Jezza is so awful.
The pupil cash shortfall is a live issue and he had the facts. However Jezza is a poor debater, lacks a quick mind and always provides the PM with plenty of ammo for zingers.
Thanks to @NickPalmer and @david_herdson for the comments on the Macron odds. I tend to agree that he's still value at 1.53 or so, although I'm a bit cautious about increasing my exposure as I'm already quite heavily red on Ms Le Pen.
I'm building up an increasing red position on Marine Le Pen. I'm comfortable with that.
Ah you laying Le Pen or backing Macron?
I'm laying both Fillon and Le Pen.
I'll be crying like a disgraced televangelist if the second round is between Le Pen and Fillon.
Thanks to @NickPalmer and @david_herdson for the comments on the Macron odds. I tend to agree that he's still value at 1.53 or so, although I'm a bit cautious about increasing my exposure as I'm already quite heavily red on Ms Le Pen.
I'm building up an increasing red position on Marine Le Pen. I'm comfortable with that.
Ah you laying Le Pen or backing Macron?
They're both quite a bit out of whack, in my view, so a bit of both. Laying Ms Le Pen keeps things more flexible in case of something happening re Emmanuel Macron. In most Betfair markets I prefer to lay than to back.
Today's PMQ's is prime example of why Jezza is so awful.
The pupil cash shortfall is a live issue and he had the facts. However Jezza is a poor debater, lacks a quick mind and always provides the PM with plenty of ammo for zingers.
Plus, half his cabinet seem to have resorted to private education.
YouGov has quite a bit on attitude to immigrants- which varies substantially by home country, and while white folks are generally preferred, far from all of them are and there are marked differences within South Asia.
Overall, do you think immigrants from each of the following parts of the world make a positive or negative contribution to life in Britain today?
It would seem that the British public think Romanian = Roma.
I am married to a Bulgarian. The level of ignorance displayed by Britons towards Bulgaria and Romania, and the Balkans, is astonishing.
And that's amongst all Britons, incidentally. Including graduates and post graduates working in the professional sector in London, one of whom once asked if they used cutlery in Bulgaria to eat their national cuisine.
In all fairness, the Balkans is not an area where Britain has deep ties of history or mass migration, and in tourist terms it's still miles behind Western Europe in terms of popularity.
Their ignorance just shows how being pro-EU is, for many, about striking a pose, rather than being derived from deep knowledge about our neighbours and the EU institutions.
How many foreign languages do Clarke and Heseltine speak? None. Compare and contrast with Hannan.
All true.
But visit Plovdiv. A terrific Bulgarian city with virtually zero (or absolutely zero at times) British tourists.
The Roman amphitheater and old town are sublime, and the food and beer is very affordable and the ladies very smartly turned out ;-)
Macron wins unless something comes up. I wouldn't characterise that as a "black swan," though, since the possibility that something will come up must be reasonably high given Russia's interest in this election. I agree he's value at present.
Yes, I wouldn't go as far as David H who said he thought the odds ought to be 1.2 or even shorter. Stuff happens, and there are still several weeks to go.
I note Elon Musks's obvious behind the scenes soft diplomacy has paid off with Trump as he has signed off the Mars bill. It's nice to have one multi billionaire in this world who'd spend the money the same way I would if I had it :>
Thought I should say it before anywhere else but isn't United's area mainly London and hence even more remain?
But Tim Montgomerie, a big MUFC fan, is hardly in the remain camp.
Well so am I and I voted leaveormer.
That's a good idea.......let all the unsuccessful struggling backwaters have a vote on how to bring the successful wealthy world ranked super-cities down to their level,
Genius! I wonder which Political giant thought of that one
Thought I should say it before anywhere else but isn't United's area mainly London and hence even more remain?
But Tim Montgomerie, a big MUFC fan, is hardly in the remain camp.
Well so am I and I voted leave too. The table is another way of showing the divide between the big urban centres and the rest. Successful clubs tend to be in the former.
That's a good idea.......let all the unsuccessful struggling backwaters have a vote on how to bring the successful wealthy world ranked super-cities down to their level,
Genius! I wonder which Political giant thought of that one
My God ! Let the poor vote. Madness.
There was a poll on the news
A transitory moment in time when the newspapers were full of 'Calais' and terrorists trundling through Europe.. who know nothing beyond yesterday's headlines marshalled by a small number of right-wing opportunists
As someone commented on both Brexit and Trump - both were bricks thrown through the establishment's window - NOW will you listen?
But it won't, will it? The establishment won. It always does. If you really want to shake it up, back Scottish independence. That would shake the establishment to its core.
Not the Scottish Establishment
They are all in London or the channel Isles trying to pretend they are not Scottish and only visit Scotland for the shooting and hunting on the estates in summer.
Comments
Who is going to stop him?
Fillon? Mired in scandal and losing core supporters. Only on the ballot because it's too late to change and no other potential candidate willing to push it.
Le Pen? Ceiling still much higher than it was for her father but not high enough to beat all but the most flawed mainstream candidate.
Someone else? But how? Hamon going backwards from a long way back and Melenchon has an even lower ceiling than Le Pen.
I suspect my views on the future of "Global Britain" might not chime with the majority.
* Specially imported from Venezuela.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birmingham_City_Council_election,_2016
http://www.coventry.gov.uk/info/8/elections_and_voting/2722/coventry_city_council_local_elections_-_5_may_2016
Moreover, two Coventry wards which probably need to vote Tory for Street to win.
Sherbourne {2,706 Con 2,636 Lab}
Actual result:
Lab 1513
Con 593
Whoberly: {2,398 Con 2,262 Lab}
Lab 1747
Con 928
Now I know there has been a Lab -> Con swing in the last year, but unless the Labour vote really, really collapses (Alot more than even Copeland) then it should be Simon's to lose.
{} results are those required for Con Gain Coventry Northwest, which would probably imply a narrow Street win.
Curiously enough TUD omitted to mention the changes - zero and an moe +2 for remain...
Essentially, I disagree.
Man who claims to be European getting on everyone’s tits https://t.co/25yqLxkMhv https://t.co/CXiGlWg5qI
If Simon loses, Coventry NorthEast doesn't look entirely safe for Labour at the next GE, and there isn't a single Conservative councillor in that seat.
Mr. Borough, I'm a welterweight (got on at about 13, but have hedged a bit).
And that's amongst all Britons, incidentally. Including graduates and post graduates working in the professional sector in London, one of whom once asked if they used cutlery in Bulgaria to eat their national cuisine.
Roma - 97 %
Romania + 31 %
Would be my guess at disaggregated figures.
One might observe it's an unsustainable strategy.
So, where shall we meet on 29th March, and what time? Truckles, Davys, or Cork & Bottle? Any other venues?
Cries of 'where is he?'
I mean of course an individual choice rather than any numerical observation ....
At PMQzzzz Corbyn doing better - short simple questions
A. I'm a swivel eyed right winger who was already very keen on a low tax, minimal regulation, small state UK - way before Brexit came along. My Brexitishness is unconnected to that.
B. Brexit: It's about identity, democracy and sovereignty. All Brits, plebs included, will benefit from having a vote that counts in future.
My A thoughts are thoughts. Head not heart. Socialism doesn't work and tends inexorably towards serfdom. My B feelings are deeper. It's my heart not my head. It's visceral.
I'll repeat yet again for the umpteenth time that the current count of PB remainers who are willing to post at all about identity, democracy and sovereignty remains stuck on zero.
I am very happy to post on identity, democracy and sovereignty, and have done so many times in the past.
It is absolutely clear to me that for a lot of people the Brexit vote was a cry of frustration and anger, and much of that was tied into an identity that they felt was under threat. But from what I can tell from history identity in its exclusionary form only becomes a live issue when people are not happy. People were (are) unhappy that living standards had stalled, that public services they rely on had been cut, that the wealthy bankers were getting away with it while they were being forced to take hit after hit - including high levels of immigration - and so on. Voting to quit the EU was the result. A lot of people felt that Brexit might change things for the better. We shall see; we live in a democratic, sovereign country, and so we are going to be leaving the EU at the end of March 2019.
Let us never forget the PM is on record as thinking leaving would be wrong (unless she was lying, hardly a defence, or only saying so out of loyalty, which is also hardly a defence considering other senior people were willing to say what they thought), but agrees it is now the path we must take and she is picking what she thinks is the best approach. So unless she has publicly said she was wrong to back remain, she is one of those who thinks it was the wrong choice, but is committed to doing as good as she can with it nevertheless.
Their ignorance just shows how being pro-EU is, for many, about striking a pose, rather than being derived from deep knowledge about our neighbours and the EU institutions.
How many foreign languages do Clarke and Heseltine speak? None. Compare and contrast with Hannan.
I think there are something like 200000 Romanian citizens here and the same number of Roma people, who come from Bulgaria and Slovakia and elsewhere as well as Romania.
HBO giving @LouiseMensch a platform, hopefully to explain how Putin murdered Breitbart, & @ProPublica & @democracynow are Russian fronts. https://t.co/rL60FpwfUN
"A staircase for all, not a ladder for the few".
From the same author: "A bargain basement economy on the shores of Europe" #PMQs
Which is perhaps an argument in their favour...
I think even she might have responded with some gentle sarcasm to that one, including mentioning 'yes', and that Bulgarians wear shoes as well.
I expect some form of scandal /mini scandal to break in the next 5 weeks, and his lightweightness / lack of experience put under the spotlight, but, that won't be anything near serious enough to break his election.
It's nice to have one multi billionaire in this world who'd spend the money the same way I would if I had it :>
I'm not saying it will work for Labour, I honestly don't know and clearly the other issues will trump it if Corbyn and clowns are still leading.
The pupil cash shortfall is a live issue and he had the facts. However Jezza is a poor debater, lacks a quick mind and always provides the PM with plenty of ammo for zingers.
I'll be crying like a disgraced televangelist if the second round is between Le Pen and Fillon.
But visit Plovdiv. A terrific Bulgarian city with virtually zero (or absolutely zero at times) British tourists.
The Roman amphitheater and old town are sublime, and the food and beer is very affordable and the ladies very smartly turned out ;-)
The vineyards nearby are also well worth a visit.
'A big GE issue is Grammars' would be grammatically correct (though stylistically horrible).
Just a comment: I'll leave it up to the readers to decide if that's good or bad.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/844360665900838912
May wins on away goals .... (J Corbyn og)