I'm watching the 1992 election night on Youtube. Very exciting.
They should bring back that opening music!
Agreed. I was five in April 1992, but I can remember the day because I had the day off school as my school was our polling station. I'm an hour in and so far Labour are saying that Major and the Tories have "definitely lost".
Have you got to the bit where Gordon Brown says that because the Tories have lost their majority, Major has to quit?
I don't remember him using the same argument in 2010!
Not Brown, but Jack Cunningham (from Copeland, incidentally) made the claim at the start of the night. He said that the Tories would have lost "the moral right to rule."
I wonder how much less likely they need to get before switching to anther party?
Mrs May has ruined the Tory brand and low tax perception.
A fie on her, a fie.
People need to grow up. Social care and the NHS need funding. Where would they like it to come from? (Answer: someone else - but these proposals *would* hit someone else for the majority of the country).
Either way, it'll all blow over by next week.
Anyone who thinks that poll is bad news for the Conservatives needs to be exiled to UKIP Home for the week anyway.
I'm exiled to Manchester for the next two days for wedding shopping, then I'm off to America for a few days.
I'm fairly certain Mrs May has asked Mr Trump to ensure that the TSA give me a warm welcome.
The TSA and US Border Force can't wait to hear your jokes. Bonus points are given for answering questions only in 1980s song lyrics. When they say "Hello", the reply should be "Is it me you're looking for?" Keep that up for five minutes and you'll be fine.
Poshos in charge don't result in 19% polling leads IN GOVERNMENT.
Are you sure? If Nigel Farage spoke posh and had been to a Clarendon school, and was generally considered on-side and a safe pair of hands, he'd be prime minister now.
Top tier international rugby is probably the most entertaining TV sport on the planet. Discuss.
It's certainly up there. Does any Englishman here not remember where they were early in the morning of 22nd November 2003?
The Mount Radford public house in Exeter. The landlady laid on free bacon sandwiches. After the match we rang Qantas and Sydney rugby club both of whom got to work on the Monday to a ruckus on their ansaphone. 7 mates and me did a best of 3 scrum in the bar of a wetherspoons against another 8 lads with the barman playing scrum-half (we lost 2-1) followed by a lineout on a zebra crossing in the centre of Exeter. It was 1pm.. The rest is a blur..
I was in bed with my girlfriend. I unexpectedly fucked her again, after Jonny Wilkinson's dropgoal, by way of celebration. Such was the surge of testosterone.
I genuinely cannot decide which was the greater sporting moment, that, or the afternoon we won Flitntoff's Ashes.
Both came after so many decades of mediocrity. And since. But hey. YAY
I was in bed w a girl too.. not my gf though.. a one night stand w a girl from work. Only Rugby match I have ever remembered!
Slinked back to Hornchurch and went straight to the pub, I think Arsenal bt Birmingham City that afternoon!
Birmingham 0-3 Arsenal... Arsene Wenger's 400th match
I'm watching the 1992 election night on Youtube. Very exciting.
They should bring back that opening music!
Agreed. I was five in April 1992, but I can remember the day because I had the day off school as my school was our polling station. I'm an hour in and so far Labour are saying that Major and the Tories have "definitely lost".
Have you got to the bit where Gordon Brown says that because the Tories have lost their majority, Major has to quit?
I don't remember him using the same argument in 2010!
Not Brown, but Jack Cunningham (from Copeland, incidentally) made the claim at the start of the night. He said that the Tories would have lost "the moral right to rule."
Opposition politician in "putting the worst spin on the other party's results" shocker!
The 2005 election coverage is filled with Tory politicians saying what a huge blow it was for Labour and how Blair was finished, at the very same time that the results showed they were cruising to a majority.
Norman Lamont, the man who introduced VAT on fuel, is now the new standard bearer of the Tory rebels' campaign against the NI rise on the better paid self employed, I expect Hammond is quaking in his boots!
Poshos in charge don't result in 19% polling leads IN GOVERNMENT.
Are you sure? If Nigel Farage spoke posh and had been to a Clarendon school, and was generally considered on-side and a safe pair of hands, he'd be prime minister now.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
I really don't believe that Brexit is going to be a major factor in determining how people vote.
.
I.
Nonsense - Copeland was about Nuclear power and Corbyn as well as the NHS. Brexit barely featured at all there.
I must have made several hundred calls in Copeland over the campaign and I can tell you Brexit was a big issue, of course nuclear power and Corbyn were issues too but Brexit was also raised frequently. You seem to have forgotten more people voted in the EU referendum than any general election since 1992, Brexit is not going away as an issue any time soon and certainly not until the deal is done and we have had a subsequent general election
Brexit is an important issue - but it is not a salient issue for many people. The turnout of circa 72% did not in itself mean that most people had really strong feelings on the matter - indeed most people view it as a very technical affair. By June 23rd last year people had been bombarded with the topic for 3 to 4 months - in a way that did not happen at the time of the 1975 Referendum. A relatively high turnout was only to be expected - though it was still well short of the Independence Referendum and all postwar General Elections until 1997. Are you still expecting UKIP to outpoll Labour this May - something ,I believe, you suggested to be highly likely last Autumn?
Poshos in charge don't result in 19% polling leads IN GOVERNMENT.
Are you sure? If Nigel Farage spoke posh and had been to a Clarendon school, and was generally considered on-side and a safe pair of hands, he'd be prime minister now.
Too many "ifs"
If my Aunt had balls, she'd be whatever she chose to self identify as
Poshos in charge don't result in 19% polling leads IN GOVERNMENT.
Are you sure? If Nigel Farage spoke posh and had been to a Clarendon school, and was generally considered on-side and a safe pair of hands, he'd be prime minister now.
I wonder how much less likely they need to get before switching to anther party?
Mrs May has ruined the Tory brand and low tax perception.
A fie on her, a fie.
People need to grow up. Social care and the NHS need funding. Where would they like it to come from? (Answer: someone else - but these proposals *would* hit someone else for the majority of the country).
Either way, it'll all blow over by next week.
Anyone who thinks that poll is bad news for the Conservatives needs to be exiled to UKIP Home for the week anyway.
I'm exiled to Manchester for the next two days for wedding shopping, then I'm off to America for a few days.
I'm fairly certain Mrs May has asked Mr Trump to ensure that the TSA give me a warm welcome.
The TSA and US Border Force can't wait to hear your jokes. Bonus points are given for answering questions only in 1980s song lyrics. When they say "Hello", the reply should be "Is it me you're looking for?" Keep that up for five minutes and you'll be fine.
Been there, done that.
I'm more worried about that copious amounts of meds I have to take with me.
Poshos in charge don't result in 19% polling leads IN GOVERNMENT.
Are you sure? If Nigel Farage spoke posh and had been to a Clarendon school, and was generally considered on-side and a safe pair of hands, he'd be prime minister now.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
I really don't believe that Brexit is going to be a major factor in determining how people vote.
.
I.
Nonsense - Copeland was about Nuclear power and Corbyn as well as the NHS. Brexit barely featured at all there.
I must have made several hundred calls in Copeland over the campaign and I can tell you
Brexit is an important issue - but it is not a salient issue for many people. The turnout of circa 72% did not in itself mean that most people had really strong feelings on the matter - indeed likely last Autumn?
They certainly did on issues like immigration and sovereignty and keeping ties to Europe which was why it was the biggest turnout in over 2 decades. Leave won more votes than any party has ever won at a general election since 1945. I do not expect UKIP to now outpoll Labour as May has taken a tough approach to free movement and is leaving the single market, if she backtracks on that at all then they may see a rise and the job offer requirement is still not likely to be enough for some. Brexit of course will have a significant impact on the economy too and how successful it is will also determine how much extra cash is available for the NHS etc. Brexit is one of the, if not the biggest change to our national direction since the end of the Empire and our original entry into the EEC in the first place
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
Poshos in charge don't result in 19% polling leads IN GOVERNMENT.
Are you sure? If Nigel Farage spoke posh and had been to a Clarendon school, and was generally considered on-side and a safe pair of hands, he'd be prime minister now.
Poshos in charge don't result in 19% polling leads IN GOVERNMENT.
Are you sure? If Nigel Farage spoke posh and had been to a Clarendon school, and was generally considered on-side and a safe pair of hands, he'd be prime minister now.
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
Something I find peculiar is that there are several plausible arguments in favour of grammar schools, but
(1) the government line of "it will help working class students catch up with middle class students" runs exactly contrary to the evidence (there are other metrics where more grammar schools would indeed have a positive impact, but the middle-vs-lower class attainment gap is one that would likely get far worse), (2) grammars sit very uneasily with the Gove philosophy on education - they only make organisational sense in a context in which a local authority provides a whole system of provision, whereas in the post-Gove world schools have become far more self-contained. David Herdson has posted some sage stuff about this.
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
Do you want to top up on Labour most seats ?
Like Labour supporters in the early 2000s, they have nowhere to go.
Jesus Christ, the Sky News Paper Review is basically a circle jerk by pissed off self employed journalists. They are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think the public will actually remember any of this in 2020.
No just no need to give extra publicity to leftwing teachers doing their usual heckling
Wasn't that one of the gags in Yes Prime Minister about grammar schools and bringing the government's education policy in line with the teaching unions?
Jesus Christ, the Sky News Paper Review is basically a circle jerk by pissed off self employed journalists. They are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think the public will actually remember any of this in 2020.
Abolish NI, just roll it all into income tax at the level employed cost their employer in total payroll taxes. Fair is fair.
Something I find peculiar is that there are several plausible arguments in favour of grammar schools, but
(1) the government line of "it will help working class students catch up with middle class students" runs exactly contrary to the evidence (there are other metrics where more grammar schools would indeed have a positive impact, but the middle-vs-lower class attainment gap is one that would likely get far worse), (2) grammars sit very uneasily with the Gove philosophy on education - they only make organisational sense in a context in which a local authority provides a whole system of provision, whereas in the post-Gove world schools have become far more self-contained. David Herdson has posted some sage stuff about this.
Singapore has the best PISA results and effectively selects at 13
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
Considering that MaxPB had a similar meltdown I will speculate that there's a London vs Rest of the Country split on this issue.
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
Considering that MaxPB had a similar meltdown I will speculate that there's a London vs Rest of the Country split on this issue.
Something I find peculiar is that there are several plausible arguments in favour of grammar schools, but
(1) the government line of "it will help working class students catch up with middle class students" runs exactly contrary to the evidence (there are other metrics where more grammar schools would indeed have a positive impact, but the middle-vs-lower class attainment gap is one that would likely get far worse), (2) grammars sit very uneasily with the Gove philosophy on education - they only make organisational sense in a context in which a local authority provides a whole system of provision, whereas in the post-Gove world schools have become far more self-contained. David Herdson has posted some sage stuff about this.
Singapore has the best PISA results and effectively selects at 13
Take Singapore's PISA results with a pinch of salt - their state education system is effectively set up for the maximisation of PISA scores. For fairer international comparisons, you'd want them to sit tests that they had not been prepared for! Also private tuition (and parental pressure) there is so ubiquitous, that it's hard to distinguish how effective the (more replicable) public aspects of their system are.
One thing they - and the Chinese - have been very successful at, is closing the educational attainment gap between low and high income families. If we could steal one thing from them, that would probably be it ... but selection probably isn't the way to do it.
I do think it's misleading when people say "Country X does well, and it is/isn't selective" - truth is, all systems effectively select, or sort people into vocational vs academic streams, though the age differs. Even if we abolished every grammar school in Britain, and all those selective private schools too, we'd still have a divergence of paths at 16. And FWIW, in the dying years of the last Labour government, there was a very big push on extending Further Education provision to be "14-19", with schools encouraged to day-release blocks of student to local colleges to do Diploma courses. The clear direction of travel under Labour, pre-Gove, was effectively for selection at 14 into academic vs vocational streams - not really so far from selection at 11 or 13!
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
Considering that MaxPB had a similar meltdown I will speculate that there's a London vs Rest of the Country split on this issue.
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
Nah. The Tories are fine. Corbyn makes sure of that.
Something I find peculiar is that there are several plausible arguments in favour of grammar schools, but
(1) the government line of "it will help working class students catch up with middle class students" runs exactly contrary to the evidence (there are other metrics where more grammar schools would indeed have a positive impact, but the middle-vs-lower class attainment gap is one that would likely get far worse), (2) grammars sit very uneasily with the Gove philosophy on education - they only make organisational sense in a context in which a local authority provides a whole system of provision, whereas in the post-Gove world schools have become far more self-contained. David Herdson has posted some sage stuff about this.
Singapore has the best PISA results and effectively selects at 13
Take Singapore's PISA results with a pinch of salt - their state education system is effectively set up for the maximisation of PISA scores. For fairer international comparisons, you'd want them to sit tests that they had not been prepared for! Also private tuition (and parental pressure) there is so ubiquitous, that it's hard to distinguish how effective the (more replicable) aspects of their system are.
One thing they - and the Chinese - have been very successful at, is closing the educational attainment gap between low and high income families. If we could steal one thing from them, that would probably be it ... but selection probably isn't the way to do it.
I do think it's misleading when people say "Country X does well, and it is/isn't selective" - truth is, all systems effectively select, or sort people into vocational vs academic streams, though the age differs. Even if we abolished every grammar school in Britain, and all those selective private schools too, we'd still have a divergence of paths at 16. And FWIW, in the dying years of the last Labour government, there was a very big push on extending Further Education provision to be "14-19", with schools encouraged to day-release blocks of student to local colleges to do Diploma courses. The clear direction of travel under Labour, pre-Gove, was effectively for selection at 14 into academic vs vocational streams - not really so far from selection at 11 or 13!
How are they at filling in immigration applications?
I did point out that the NIC stuff was toxic just as Hammond sat down, but I must say I'm surprised at a) how much dissent there is from her own right flank - and b) how badly they've handled the media fallout.
Journos & backbenchers have smelt blood. Up to this point, everyone has been projecting onto May & Hammond what they want them to be.
This is nothing compared to the sh*tstorm that is Brexit.
May's strength is an illusion, she's very very weak - I think it's more likely than not that she won't be PM in 2021.
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
Considering that MaxPB had a similar meltdown I will speculate that there's a London vs Rest of the Country split on this issue.
The frothing by the media supports this theory.
Max lives in Zurich.
But he's only recently moved from North London.
There's sometimes an anti-London attitude on show where people blame the place and its residents - and former residents - for anything they don't like!
I did point out that the NIC stuff was toxic just as Hammond sat down, but I must say I'm surprised at a) how much dissent there is from her own right flank - and b) how badly they've handled the media fallout.
Journos & backbenchers have smelt blood. Up to this point, everyone has been projecting onto May & Hammond what they want them to be.
Just wait until Brexit.
May's strength is an illusion, she's very very weak - I think it's more likely than not that she won't be PM in 2021.
While I am neutral about the White Van Tax I agree that May is a weak PM. Her support is a mile wide, and an inch deep. Labour must WAKE UP.
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
Considering that MaxPB had a similar meltdown I will speculate that there's a London vs Rest of the Country split on this issue.
The frothing by the media supports this theory.
Max lives in Zurich.
But he's only recently moved from North London.
There's sometimes an anti-London attitude on show where people blame the place and its residents - and former residents - for anything they don't like!
As the Scottish ex-rugby player, Jim Telfer says, "the English don't boo us like other countries; they ignore us. Londoners." I don't care about the criticism of London. I quite enjoy it.
I did point out that the NIC stuff was toxic just as Hammond sat down, but I must say I'm surprised at a) how much dissent there is from her own right flank - and b) how badly they've handled the media fallout.
Journos & backbenchers have smelt blood. Up to this point, everyone has been projecting onto May & Hammond what they want them to be.
This is nothing compared to the sh*tstorm that is Brexit.
May's strength is an illusion, she's very very weak - I think it's more likely than not that she won't be PM in 2021.
This is just the rightwing press stirring up a storm because of their self employed journos and to feed some red meat to Tory backbenchers, the public don't care, May today is in a stronger position than any Tory leader since Thatcher at her height with a thumping poll lead, she will be PM for the best part of a decade and will likely be a UK Merkel. Neither left nor right can touch her and Labour will take years to return to an electable alternative given the current Corbynista grip on the membership, maybe Chuka Umunna or similar could win in 2025 but even then May would have had 8/9 years in No 10 and would have likely handed over to Hammond anyway
I did point out that the NIC stuff was toxic just as Hammond sat down, but I must say I'm surprised at a) how much dissent there is from her own right flank - and b) how badly they've handled the media fallout.
Journos & backbenchers have smelt blood. Up to this point, everyone has been projecting onto May & Hammond what they want them to be.
Just wait until Brexit.
May's strength is an illusion, she's very very weak - I think it's more likely than not that she won't be PM in 2021.
While I am neutral about the White Van Tax I agree that May is a weak PM. Her support is a mile wide, and an inch deep. Labour must WAKE UP.
So if her support was really strong, she'd be leading by 30%, rather than a measly 19%?
Jesus Christ, the Sky News Paper Review is basically a circle jerk by pissed off self employed journalists. They are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think the public will actually remember any of this in 2020.
Abolish NI, just roll it all into income tax at the level employed cost their employer in total payroll taxes. Fair is fair.
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
So much damage, the Conservatives have their biggest lead in government since the 1930's.
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
Considering that MaxPB had a similar meltdown I will speculate that there's a London vs Rest of the Country split on this issue.
The frothing by the media supports this theory.
Max lives in Zurich.
But he's only recently moved from North London.
There's sometimes an anti-London attitude on show where people blame the place and its residents - and former residents - for anything they don't like!
Pointing out that different places might have different ideas is not casting blame its merely trying to get a better understanding of what is happening.
The fact is that the people most upset about the NI changes appear to be London connected.
Now its likely that there will be higher proportions of the people adversely affected in London so I can understand that.
But they might then be making the erroneous assumption that people in other places are affected in the same way and have similar thoughts on the issue.
Something I find peculiar is that there are several plausible arguments in favour of grammar schools, but
(1) the government line of "it will help working class students catch up with middle class students" runs exactly contrary to the evidence (there are other metrics where more grammar schools would indeed have a positive impact, but the middle-vs-lower class attainment gap is one that would likely get far worse), (2) grammars sit very uneasily with the Gove philosophy on education - they only make organisational sense in a context in which a local authority provides a whole system of provision, whereas in the post-Gove world schools have become far more self-contained. David Herdson has posted some sage stuff about this.
Singapore has the best PISA results and effectively selects at 13
Take Singapore's PISA results with a pinch of salt - their state education system is effectively set up for the maximisation of PISA scores. For fairer international comparisons, you'd want them to sit tests that they had not been prepared for! Also private tuition (and parental pressure) there is so ubiquitous, that it's hard to distinguish how effective the (more replicable) public aspects of their system are.
One thing they - and the Chinese - have been very successful at, is closing the educational attainment gap between low and high income families. If we could steal one thing from them, that would probably be it ... but selection probably isn't the way to do it.
I do think it's misleading when people say "Country X does well, and it is/isn't selective" - truth is, all systems effectively select, or sort people into vocational vs academic streams, though the age differs. Even if we abolished every grammar school in Britain, and all those selective private schools too, we'd still have a divergence of paths at 16. And FWIW, in the dying years of the last Labour government, there was a very big push on extending Further Education provision to be "14-19", with schools encouraged to day-release blocks of student to local colleges to do Diploma courses. The clear direction of travel under Labour, pre-Gove, was effectively for selection at 14 into academic vs vocational streams - not really so far from selection at 11 or 13!
I would certainly agree selection at 13/14 is more sensible than at 11
Why would they stop and independent Scotland joining? I thought the argument was about them stopping them joining automatically.
It has been both. Fears over encouraging separatists aside, it never seemed hugely concerning for the Scots - they might have to wait a bit, but they already meet the criteria, it won't be that long I would think.
You mean like the '3% deficit' criterion.....?
On topic......#number of Lib Dem Peers, cough.....#
I did point out that the NIC stuff was toxic just as Hammond sat down, but I must say I'm surprised at a) how much dissent there is from her own right flank - and b) how badly they've handled the media fallout.
Journos & backbenchers have smelt blood. Up to this point, everyone has been projecting onto May & Hammond what they want them to be.
Just wait until Brexit.
May's strength is an illusion, she's very very weak - I think it's more likely than not that she won't be PM in 2021.
While I am neutral about the White Van Tax I agree that May is a weak PM. Her support is a mile wide, and an inch deep. Labour must WAKE UP.
So if her support was really strong, she'd be leading by 30%, rather than a measly 19%?
I'm surprised she isn't leading by more, given the opposition.
May today is in a stronger position than any Tory leader since Thatcher at her height
"The eyes of Caligula and the lips of Marilyn Monroe..."
Nah, she doesn't come close.
She is tough, has a hopeless leftwing opposition and has connected with C1 s and C2s and DEs in a way no Tory leader really has since Maggie and the Tory and liberal public school establishment are somewhat suspicious of her, there are a lot of similarities
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
So much damage, the Conservatives have their biggest lead in government since the 1930's.
Perhaps it doesn't count if its not in London.
Its possible that the Conservatives could get a national majority of over 100 whilst not having a majority of London MPs.
That certainly didn't happen in previous Conservative landslides - which in 1959 and 1987 were London focused.
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
Considering that MaxPB had a similar meltdown I will speculate that there's a London vs Rest of the Country split on this issue.
The frothing by the media supports this theory.
Max lives in Zurich.
But he's only recently moved from North London.
There's sometimes an anti-London attitude on show where people blame the place and its residents - and former residents - for anything they don't like!
Pointing out that different places might have different ideas is not casting blame its merely trying to get a better understanding of what is happening.
The fact is that the people most upset about the NI changes appear to be London connected.
I know in the climate of 'isn't the May government rubbish' polling evidence is suddenly unfashionable.....
Increasing the amount of National Insurance paid by self-employed people from 9% to 11%, the same level as employees Net 'good idea': London: -3 R.o.South: +19 Mid/Wal: +16 North: +10 Scot: +20
May today is in a stronger position than any Tory leader since Thatcher at her height
"The eyes of Caligula and the lips of Marilyn Monroe..."
Nah, she doesn't come close.
Nor is Hollande Mitterand......
No but I think May will have a reasonable relationship with Macron, after all she has already met him at No10 and she has not yet met either Fillon or Le Pen, they will clearly differ on Brexit as Thatcher and Mitterand had big ideological differences but on a personal level I think they will get on if he wins, Trump has already said she is Maggie to his Reagan
She is tough, has a hopeless leftwing opposition and has connected with C1 s and C2s and DEs in a way no Tory leader really has since Maggie and the Tory and liberal public school establishment are somewhat suspicious of her, there are a lot of similarities
If Thatcher had been Chairman of the party while IDS was leader, do you not think she would have been the one to emerge with the crown instead of keeping her powder dry for 13 years until it was Buggins' turn?
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
So much damage, the Conservatives have their biggest lead in government since the 1930's.
Perhaps it doesn't count if its not in London.
Its possible that the Conservatives could get a national majority of over 100 whilst not having a majority of London MPs.
That certainly didn't happen in previous Conservative landslides - which in 1959 and 1987 were London focused.
Conversely, the Conservatives are poised to sweep through small cities and large towns in the North and Midlands that stayed Labour in those years.
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
So much damage, the Conservatives have their biggest lead in government since the 1930's.
Perhaps it doesn't count if its not in London.
Its possible that the Conservatives could get a national majority of over 100 whilst not having a majority of London MPs.
That certainly didn't happen in previous Conservative landslides - which in 1959 and 1987 were London focused.
Conversely, the Conservatives are poised to sweep through small cities and large towns in the North and Midlands that stayed Labour in those years.
In 1983 the Tories did better in the provinces than in London, in 1987 the reverse, so 1983 is a more apt example
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
So much damage, the Conservatives have their biggest lead in government since the 1930's.
Perhaps it doesn't count if its not in London.
Its possible that the Conservatives could get a national majority of over 100 whilst not having a majority of London MPs.
That certainly didn't happen in previous Conservative landslides - which in 1959 and 1987 were London focused.
London is super strong Labour. A very big swing is required to make London great again.
She is tough, has a hopeless leftwing opposition and has connected with C1 s and C2s and DEs in a way no Tory leader really has since Maggie and the Tory and liberal public school establishment are somewhat suspicious of her, there are a lot of similarities
If Thatcher had been Chairman of the party while IDS was leader, do you not think she would have been the one to emerge with the crown instead of keeping her powder dry for 13 years until it was Buggins' turn?
Thatcher did not become Tory leader until 16 years after she entered Parliament, May became Tory leader and PM after 19 so not much different
If I may interject for a moment. You may recall that some weeks ago I moved £5K into USD. Over the last few weeks I have managed to assemble another £5K and I need to work out what to do with it.
Over the last two weeks GBP has, dropped against USD, moving from about $1.27 to about $1.21. Theresa May is predicted to execute Order 66...er, Article 50 on Tuesday and presumably her invocation will cause another GBP/USD move. What I need to know from your massive PB brains is...move in which direction? Will the value of GBP rise next week (buy on the rumour, sell on the fact) or will it fall (Brexit instability plus a Fed rise indicates further to fall)?
If GBP is going to fall, then I can buy USD on the weekend and be smug. If not, well there's always an ISA.
So guys & gals, GBP: will it rise next week, or fall?
Jesus Christ, the Sky News Paper Review is basically a circle jerk by pissed off self employed journalists. They are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think the public will actually remember any of this in 2020.
Abolish NI, just roll it all into income tax at the level employed cost their employer in total payroll taxes. Fair is fair.
No, increase NI further and cut income tax
Abolish NI & income tax, replace it with a tax on houses.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.
I think MarkSenior's head would explode...
Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales. FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England
Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?
In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England
Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.
Can someone else give that a go, I'm busy with my by-election swingback model.
It's Friday night FFS!
I'm watching the 1992 election night on Youtube. Very exciting.
If I may interject for a moment. You may recall that some weeks ago I moved £5K into USD. Over the last few weeks I have managed to assemble another £5K and I need to work out what to do with it.
Over the last two weeks GBP has, dropped against USD, moving from about $1.27 to about $1.21. Theresa May is predicted to execute Order 66...er, Article 50 on Tuesday and presumably her invocation will cause another GBP/USD move. What I need to know from your massive PB brains is...move in which direction? Will the value of GBP rise next week (buy on the rumour, sell on the fact) or will it fall (Brexit instability plus a Fed rise indicates further to fall)?
If GBP is going to fall, then I can buy USD on the weekend and be smug. If not, well there's always an ISA.
So guys & gals, GBP: will it rise next week, or fall?
Jesus Christ, the Sky News Paper Review is basically a circle jerk by pissed off self employed journalists. They are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think the public will actually remember any of this in 2020.
Abolish NI, just roll it all into income tax at the level employed cost their employer in total payroll taxes. Fair is fair.
No, increase NI further and cut income tax
Abolish NI & income tax, replace it with a tax on houses.
If I may interject for a moment. You may recall that some weeks ago I moved £5K into USD. Over the last few weeks I have managed to assemble another £5K and I need to work out what to do with it.
Over the last two weeks GBP has, dropped against USD, moving from about $1.27 to about $1.21. Theresa May is predicted to execute Order 66...er, Article 50 on Tuesday and presumably her invocation will cause another GBP/USD move. What I need to know from your massive PB brains is...move in which direction? Will the value of GBP rise next week (buy on the rumour, sell on the fact) or will it fall (Brexit instability plus a Fed rise indicates further to fall)?
If GBP is going to fall, then I can buy USD on the weekend and be smug. If not, well there's always an ISA.
So guys & gals, GBP: will it rise next week, or fall?
If I may interject for a moment. You may recall that some weeks ago I moved £5K into USD. Over the last few weeks I have managed to assemble another £5K and I need to work out what to do with it.
Over the last two weeks GBP has, dropped against USD, moving from about $1.27 to about $1.21. Theresa May is predicted to execute Order 66...er, Article 50 on Tuesday and presumably her invocation will cause another GBP/USD move. What I need to know from your massive PB brains is...move in which direction? Will the value of GBP rise next week (buy on the rumour, sell on the fact) or will it fall (Brexit instability plus a Fed rise indicates further to fall)?
If GBP is going to fall, then I can buy USD on the weekend and be smug. If not, well there's always an ISA.
So guys & gals, GBP: will it rise next week, or fall?
Put it on a horse.
Which horse?
Pick one at random. It's not much different from betting on currencies.
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Yeah, but which half of voters? And how much are they less likely to vote Tory?
It's 15% of those who say they voted Tory last time. But I rather agree with scepticism about questions that start "If X happened, would you be more/less likely to..." - they give too much prominence to the salience of X.
That said, it does seem to have undermined the idea that Tories are a low-tax party, even though opinion is fairly divided on the policy itself..
If I may interject for a moment. You may recall that some weeks ago I moved £5K into USD. Over the last few weeks I have managed to assemble another £5K and I need to work out what to do with it.
Over the last two weeks GBP has, dropped against USD, moving from about $1.27 to about $1.21. Theresa May is predicted to execute Order 66...er, Article 50 on Tuesday and presumably her invocation will cause another GBP/USD move. What I need to know from your massive PB brains is...move in which direction? Will the value of GBP rise next week (buy on the rumour, sell on the fact) or will it fall (Brexit instability plus a Fed rise indicates further to fall)?
If GBP is going to fall, then I can buy USD on the weekend and be smug. If not, well there's always an ISA.
So guys & gals, GBP: will it rise next week, or fall?
It has fallen this week and I would not expect a rise on serving A50 but at the same time not a dramatic fall. Some commentators believe the pound is undervalued and that it is likely to rise in the medium term.
However, I am not an economist and am very wary of speculating on currencies in these strange times. I do track the Canadian dollar as my eldest son and his wife live in Vancouver and I shall be spending a fair amount on Canadian dollars when my wife and I visit them in May. I have not bought any currency to date as I am hoping by May it may just have risen a bit
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
Considering that MaxPB had a similar meltdown I will speculate that there's a London vs Rest of the Country split on this issue.
The frothing by the media supports this theory.
Max lives in Zurich.
But he's only recently moved from North London.
There's sometimes an anti-London attitude on show where people blame the place and its residents - and former residents - for anything they don't like!
Pointing out that different places might have different ideas is not casting blame its merely trying to get a better understanding of what is happening.
The fact is that the people most upset about the NI changes appear to be London connected.
I know in the climate of 'isn't the May government rubbish' polling evidence is suddenly unfashionable.....
Increasing the amount of National Insurance paid by self-employed people from 9% to 11%, the same level as employees Net 'good idea': London: -3 R.o.South: +19 Mid/Wal: +16 North: +10 Scot: +20
PAYE EMPLOYEES EFFECTIVELY ARE CHARGED 25.8% ON EARNINGS, NOT 11%.
Jesus Christ, the Sky News Paper Review is basically a circle jerk by pissed off self employed journalists. They are living in cloud cuckoo land if they think the public will actually remember any of this in 2020.
Precisely. The issue will largely be forgotten in 3 weeks, never mind 3 years.
It is a minor tax change that affects a small number of people, many of whom have such variable incomes that they won't even notice the additive effect of the rise.
If I may interject for a moment. You may recall that some weeks ago I moved £5K into USD. Over the last few weeks I have managed to assemble another £5K and I need to work out what to do with it.
Over the last two weeks GBP has, dropped against USD, moving from about $1.27 to about $1.21. Theresa May is predicted to execute Order 66...er, Article 50 on Tuesday and presumably her invocation will cause another GBP/USD move. What I need to know from your massive PB brains is...move in which direction? Will the value of GBP rise next week (buy on the rumour, sell on the fact) or will it fall (Brexit instability plus a Fed rise indicates further to fall)?
If GBP is going to fall, then I can buy USD on the weekend and be smug. If not, well there's always an ISA.
So guys & gals, GBP: will it rise next week, or fall?
Put it on a horse.
Which horse?
Pick one at random. It's not much different from betting on currencies.
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
So much damage, the Conservatives have their biggest lead in government since the 1930's.
Perhaps it doesn't count if its not in London.
Its possible that the Conservatives could get a national majority of over 100 whilst not having a majority of London MPs.
That certainly didn't happen in previous Conservative landslides - which in 1959 and 1987 were London focused.
Conversely, the Conservatives are poised to sweep through small cities and large towns in the North and Midlands that stayed Labour in those years.
And that's even after so many have turned Conservative since then.
In 1959 Loughborough, Bosworth, Lichfield & Tamworth, Leek (now Staffs Moorlands), Belper (now Mid Derbys and Derbys S) and Kettering were all Labour as indeed was Norfolk SW and Norfolk N.
Meanwhile the Conservatives have been nearly wiped out in the cities - only the influence of the City stops that from happening in London.
On these trends Britain will become as divided a country as the USA.
If I may interject for a moment. You may recall that some weeks ago I moved £5K into USD. Over the last few weeks I have managed to assemble another £5K and I need to work out what to do with it.
Over the last two weeks GBP has, dropped against USD, moving from about $1.27 to about $1.21. Theresa May is predicted to execute Order 66...er, Article 50 on Tuesday and presumably her invocation will cause another GBP/USD move. What I need to know from your massive PB brains is...move in which direction? Will the value of GBP rise next week (buy on the rumour, sell on the fact) or will it fall (Brexit instability plus a Fed rise indicates further to fall)?
If GBP is going to fall, then I can buy USD on the weekend and be smug. If not, well there's always an ISA.
So guys & gals, GBP: will it rise next week, or fall?
If I may interject for a moment. You may recall that some weeks ago I moved £5K into USD. Over the last few weeks I have managed to assemble another £5K and I need to work out what to do with it.
Over the last two weeks GBP has, dropped against USD, moving from about $1.27 to about $1.21. Theresa May is predicted to execute Order 66...er, Article 50 on Tuesday and presumably her invocation will cause another GBP/USD move. What I need to know from your massive PB brains is...move in which direction? Will the value of GBP rise next week (buy on the rumour, sell on the fact) or will it fall (Brexit instability plus a Fed rise indicates further to fall)?
If GBP is going to fall, then I can buy USD on the weekend and be smug. If not, well there's always an ISA.
So guys & gals, GBP: will it rise next week, or fall?
It has fallen this week and I would not expect a rise on serving A50 but at the same time not a dramatic fall. Some commentators believe the pound is undervalued and that it is likely to rise in the medium term.
However, I am not an economist and am very wary of speculating on currencies in these strange times. I do track the Canadian dollar as my eldest son and his wife live in Vancouver and I shall be spending a fair amount on Canadian dollars when my wife and I visit them in May. I have not bought any currency to date as I am hoping by May it may just have risen a bit
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
Considering that MaxPB had a similar meltdown I will speculate that there's a London vs Rest of the Country split on this issue.
The frothing by the media supports this theory.
Max lives in Zurich.
But he's only recently moved from North London.
There's sometimes an anti-London attitude on show where people blame the place and its residents - and former residents - for anything they don't like!
Pointing out that different places might have different ideas is not casting blame its merely trying to get a better understanding of what is happening.
The fact is that the people most upset about the NI changes appear to be London connected.
I know in the climate of 'isn't the May government rubbish' polling evidence is suddenly unfashionable.....
Increasing the amount of National Insurance paid by self-employed people from 9% to 11%, the same level as employees Net 'good idea': London: -3 R.o.South: +19 Mid/Wal: +16 North: +10 Scot: +20
I did point out that the NIC stuff was toxic just as Hammond sat down, but I must say I'm surprised at a) how much dissent there is from her own right flank - and b) how badly they've handled the media fallout.
Journos & backbenchers have smelt blood. Up to this point, everyone has been projecting onto May & Hammond what they want them to be.
Just wait until Brexit.
May's strength is an illusion, she's very very weak - I think it's more likely than not that she won't be PM in 2021.
While I am neutral about the White Van Tax I agree that May is a weak PM. Her support is a mile wide, and an inch deep. Labour must WAKE UP.
Any other Labour leader could do it. Well, almost. Cooper, Starmer....
I did point out that the NIC stuff was toxic just as Hammond sat down, but I must say I'm surprised at a) how much dissent there is from her own right flank - and b) how badly they've handled the media fallout.
Journos & backbenchers have smelt blood. Up to this point, everyone has been projecting onto May & Hammond what they want them to be.
Just wait until Brexit.
May's strength is an illusion, she's very very weak - I think it's more likely than not that she won't be PM in 2021.
While I am neutral about the White Van Tax I agree that May is a weak PM. Her support is a mile wide, and an inch deep. Labour must WAKE UP.
So if her support was really strong, she'd be leading by 30%, rather than a measly 19%?
I'm surprised she isn't leading by more, given the opposition.
30% is virtually impossible. The ceiling for any party in a true multiparty democracy is 45-50%, and in the case of GB, both main parties have a floor of 20-25% tribal voters who they can rely on in any and all circumstances.
If I may interject for a moment. You may recall that some weeks ago I moved £5K into USD. Over the last few weeks I have managed to assemble another £5K and I need to work out what to do with it.
Over the last two weeks GBP has, dropped against USD, moving from about $1.27 to about $1.21. Theresa May is predicted to execute Order 66...er, Article 50 on Tuesday and presumably her invocation will cause another GBP/USD move. What I need to know from your massive PB brains is...move in which direction? Will the value of GBP rise next week (buy on the rumour, sell on the fact) or will it fall (Brexit instability plus a Fed rise indicates further to fall)?
If GBP is going to fall, then I can buy USD on the weekend and be smug. If not, well there's always an ISA.
So guys & gals, GBP: will it rise next week, or fall?
It has fallen this week and I would not expect a rise on serving A50 but at the same time not a dramatic fall. Some commentators believe the pound is undervalued and that it is likely to rise in the medium term.
However, I am not an economist and am very wary of speculating on currencies in these strange times. I do track the Canadian dollar as my eldest son and his wife live in Vancouver and I shall be spending a fair amount on Canadian dollars when my wife and I visit them in May. I have not bought any currency to date as I am hoping by May it may just have risen a bit
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
Precisely what I forecast would be the case since the Chancellor sat down after delivering his budget. Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
Considering that MaxPB had a similar meltdown I will speculate that there's a London vs Rest of the Country split on this issue.
The frothing by the media supports this theory.
Max lives in Zurich.
But he's only recently moved from North London.
There's sometimes an anti-London attitude on show where people blame the place and its residents - and former residents - for anything they don't like!
Pointing out that different places might have different ideas is not casting blame its merely trying to get a better understanding of what is happening.
The fact is that the people most upset about the NI changes appear to be London connected.
I know in the climate of 'isn't the May government rubbish' polling evidence is suddenly unfashionable.....
Increasing the amount of National Insurance paid by self-employed people from 9% to 11%, the same level as employees Net 'good idea': London: -3 R.o.South: +19 Mid/Wal: +16 North: +10 Scot: +20
Comments
(apologies in advance to any Old English scholars)
The 2005 election coverage is filled with Tory politicians saying what a huge blow it was for Labour and how Blair was finished, at the very same time that the results showed they were cruising to a majority.
*Well the entrance exam to my school, which was harder than the 11 plus.
Are you still expecting UKIP to outpoll Labour this May - something ,I believe, you suggested to be highly likely last Autumn?
I'm more worried about that copious amounts of meds I have to take with me.
Has anyone ever done a PhD on it.
This was the reality of income tax rates during the Thatcher government:
http://worldofstuart.excellentcontent.com/repository/incometaxrates_1974to1990.pdf
Note that the big tax cuts of 1987 and 1988 happened when the government was running a budgetary surplus.
More Russian WMDs produced under Thatcher than most other PMs.
More power given away to the EU under Thatcher than any other PM.
Hammond has done serious damage to the Tories' election prospects, compounded by TMay's support of him. Didn't it occur to the fools that they were attacking their own grass root support? This problem isn't going away without corrective action - May needs to sort it, even if this means dumping her Chancellor.
(1) the government line of "it will help working class students catch up with middle class students" runs exactly contrary to the evidence (there are other metrics where more grammar schools would indeed have a positive impact, but the middle-vs-lower class attainment gap is one that would likely get far worse),
(2) grammars sit very uneasily with the Gove philosophy on education - they only make organisational sense in a context in which a local authority provides a whole system of provision, whereas in the post-Gove world schools have become far more self-contained. David Herdson has posted some sage stuff about this.
Fair is fair.
The frothing by the media supports this theory.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/16/theresa-may-doesnt-have-a-willie-and-it-shows-she-urgently-and-desperately-needs-a-willie-in-her-government/
One thing they - and the Chinese - have been very successful at, is closing the educational attainment gap between low and high income families. If we could steal one thing from them, that would probably be it ... but selection probably isn't the way to do it.
I do think it's misleading when people say "Country X does well, and it is/isn't selective" - truth is, all systems effectively select, or sort people into vocational vs academic streams, though the age differs. Even if we abolished every grammar school in Britain, and all those selective private schools too, we'd still have a divergence of paths at 16. And FWIW, in the dying years of the last Labour government, there was a very big push on extending Further Education provision to be "14-19", with schools encouraged to day-release blocks of student to local colleges to do Diploma courses. The clear direction of travel under Labour, pre-Gove, was effectively for selection at 14 into academic vs vocational streams - not really so far from selection at 11 or 13!
Journos & backbenchers have smelt blood. Up to this point, everyone has been projecting onto May & Hammond what they want them to be.
This is nothing compared to the sh*tstorm that is Brexit.
May's strength is an illusion, she's very very weak - I think it's more likely than not that she won't be PM in 2021.
Most seats:
Con 1.3
Lab 5.4
2017 GE also stable at 3.5.
The fact is that the people most upset about the NI changes appear to be London connected.
Now its likely that there will be higher proportions of the people adversely affected in London so I can understand that.
But they might then be making the erroneous assumption that people in other places are affected in the same way and have similar thoughts on the issue.
Nah, she doesn't come close.
On topic......#number of Lib Dem Peers, cough.....#
farage...love it
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/09/health/aarp-older-people-health-insurance/index.html
Its possible that the Conservatives could get a national majority of over 100 whilst not having a majority of London MPs.
That certainly didn't happen in previous Conservative landslides - which in 1959 and 1987 were London focused.
Increasing the amount of National Insurance paid by self-employed people from 9% to 11%, the same level as employees
Net 'good idea':
London: -3
R.o.South: +19
Mid/Wal: +16
North: +10
Scot: +20
Over the last two weeks GBP has, dropped against USD, moving from about $1.27 to about $1.21. Theresa May is predicted to execute Order 66...er, Article 50 on Tuesday and presumably her invocation will cause another GBP/USD move. What I need to know from your massive PB brains is...move in which direction? Will the value of GBP rise next week (buy on the rumour, sell on the fact) or will it fall (Brexit instability plus a Fed rise indicates further to fall)?
If GBP is going to fall, then I can buy USD on the weekend and be smug. If not, well there's always an ISA.
So guys & gals, GBP: will it rise next week, or fall?
That said, it does seem to have undermined the idea that Tories are a low-tax party, even though opinion is fairly divided on the policy itself..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/10/tories-no-longer-seen-low-tax-party-philip-hammond-budget-raid/
However, I am not an economist and am very wary of speculating on currencies in these strange times. I do track the Canadian dollar as my eldest son and his wife live in Vancouver and I shall be spending a fair amount on Canadian dollars when my wife and I visit them in May. I have not bought any currency to date as I am hoping by May it may just have risen a bit
It is a minor tax change that affects a small number of people, many of whom have such variable incomes that they won't even notice the additive effect of the rise.
In 1959 Loughborough, Bosworth, Lichfield & Tamworth, Leek (now Staffs Moorlands), Belper (now Mid Derbys and Derbys S) and Kettering were all Labour as indeed was Norfolk SW and Norfolk N.
Meanwhile the Conservatives have been nearly wiped out in the cities - only the influence of the City stops that from happening in London.
On these trends Britain will become as divided a country as the USA.