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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB moves to 19% deficit with YouGov, drops vote share in all

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  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    kjh said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    The NYT have been caught memory holing - did they think we wouldn't notice?

    It's destroying themselves Part 94

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/03/new-york-times-goes-back-and-changes-january-headline-from-wiretapped-to-intercepted-to-bash-trump/

    Maybe you would not notice because it did not happen.

    http://www.snopes.com/nytimes-wiretap-articles/
    Snopes is pretty much discredited. They've been caught out re political agendas. Let them stick to BigFoot.
    So the web page you read doesn't have a political agenda? I think to most normal people looking at it would think its agenda rather one sided and extreme. And you dismiss another site (which also probably has an agenda as most do) without even looking at the content for this story which was analytical and without researching in any depth did seem credible.

    Your posts on Trump are cult like in the extreme. You are happy to accept the most convoluted conspiracies to explain anything. The man can do no wrong in your eyes and the Democrats and media are just evil bastards.

    The posts on this site range from left to right but nobody defends who they support like you do. Your insight into the Trump campaign and regime is really interesting but your god like adulation just isn't normal.
    I used to think it was only the Left who worshipped a secular God-head (Marx) but it seems that the right have their their own Messiah these days....
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    Pulpstar said:

    Bojabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just when will people stop getting Michael Farron and Tim Fallon mixed up ! :>

    That Tim Fillon should resign from the Lib Dems after paying his wife all that money!

    I think you are getting mixed up with Tim Farnham MP. Easily done.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Farnham_(MP)
    David Davies and David Davis are another pair.
    Spurs reserve right back is Kyle Walker-Peters
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bojabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just when will people stop getting Michael Farron and Tim Fallon mixed up ! :>

    That Tim Fillon should resign from the Lib Dems after paying his wife all that money!

    I think you are getting mixed up with Tim Farnham MP. Easily done.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Farnham_(MP)
    David Davies and David Davis are another pair.
    Don't you start...
    I imagine Theresa May and Teresa May are easy to confuse. (Don't google this at work!)
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,727

    Leading Brexiteer calls for special migration deal with EU 'because it's closer than India and China'.

    https://twitter.com/michaelpdeacon/status/839753210252386305

    If only he'd noticed before.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,369
    edited March 2017
    You really have to wonder why the media are in collective meltdown over the NIC change. Their reporting becomes more hysterical by the minute but not once have they highlighted the IFS, Resolution Foundation or Matthew Taylor all endorsing the change. Furthermore they have abandoned the favourable polling on the issue.

    You do have to wonder how many of these journalists have been caught out by the policy as there seems to be no other explanation for their bias, especially as 85% of the populace are not affected, and it is supported by a majority of conservative, lib dem and UKIP voters
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    You do have to wonder how many of these journalists have been caught out by the policy as there seems to be no other explanation for their bias

    For once I agree with you

    (checks outside for Blue Moon)

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    edited March 2017

    Leading Brexiteer calls for special migration deal with EU 'because it's closer than India and China'.

    https://twitter.com/michaelpdeacon/status/839753210252386305

    If only he'd noticed before.
    Yet another millionaire Leaver happy to exploit the grievances of the white working and lower middle classes when it suits and throw them under a bus when it doesn't, May will treat such arguments with the contempt they deserve, even if it is only a job offer requirement she is controlling EU immigration
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,403
    Patrick said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bojabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just when will people stop getting Michael Farron and Tim Fallon mixed up ! :>

    That Tim Fillon should resign from the Lib Dems after paying his wife all that money!

    I think you are getting mixed up with Tim Farnham MP. Easily done.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Farnham_(MP)
    David Davies and David Davis are another pair.
    Don't you start...
    I imagine Theresa May and Teresa May are easy to confuse. (Don't google this at work!)
    Telling David Davis and David Davies apart is easy for me because aside from their hugely different physical characteristics, I have only had a fight with one of them.
  • Options
    Love the way that such prominence is given to the results of polls like this - "Do you think the budget was fair?" How the f##k do they know whether or not it was fair - they haven't looked in to it in any detail.

    If the referendum taught us anything it is that the public don't f##king know anything!
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Bojabob said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just when will people stop getting Michael Farron and Tim Fallon mixed up ! :>

    That Tim Fillon should resign from the Lib Dems after paying his wife all that money!

    I think you are getting mixed up with Tim Farnham MP. Easily done.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Farnham_(MP)
    David Davies and David Davis are another pair.
    Don't you start...
    Discussion on Boulton this morning from Brussels with MEP's showed remarkable agreement on agreeing the EU - UK citizens issue straight away and that the negotiations will be friendly as they want to keep UK close as possible. Boulton kept ranting on about the 'bill' hoping to antagonise them but they all concluded a deal will happen, much to Boulton' s thinly disguised disappointment.

    A50 will concentrate minds and the idea of punishments will just not happen
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    You do have to wonder how many of these journalists have been caught out by the policy as there seems to be no other explanation for their bias

    For once I agree with you

    (checks outside for Blue Moon)

    I hope we can agree on many more things in the future Beverley - as the saying goes there is more that unites us than divides us
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,727
    HYUFD said:

    Leading Brexiteer calls for special migration deal with EU 'because it's closer than India and China'.

    https://twitter.com/michaelpdeacon/status/839753210252386305

    If only he'd noticed before.
    Yet another millionaire Leaver happy to exploit the grievances of the white working and lower middle classes when it suits and throw them under a bus when it doesn't, May will treat such arguments with the contempt they deserve, even if it is only a job offer requirement she is controlling EU immigration
    She's visited India and Turkey in order to try to get deals, will the quid pro quo be more Turkish and Indian visas? Given Leave's campaigning that would be ironic.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,014

    Love the way that such prominence is given to the results of polls like this - "Do you think the budget was fair?" How the f##k do they know whether or not it was fair - they haven't looked in to it in any detail.

    If the referendum taught us anything it is that the public don't f##king know anything!

    And you do I suppose?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    edited March 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Leading Brexiteer calls for special migration deal with EU 'because it's closer than India and China'.

    https://twitter.com/michaelpdeacon/status/839753210252386305

    If only he'd noticed before.
    Yet another millionaire Leaver happy to exploit the grievances of the white working and lower middle classes when it suits and throw them under a bus when it doesn't, May will treat such arguments with the contempt they deserve, even if it is only a job offer requirement she is controlling EU immigration
    Oh dear

    All this indignation, the remainers think they are on to something, start high fiving each other like PSG players after a 4-0 home win...and then, as with the blacking up of Gina Miller, Irene Clennell's deportation etc etc, a quick google reveals this from last June...

    "J.D. Wetherspoon boss Tim Martin, who made headlines earlier this week by distributing pro-Brexit 200,000 beermats to his pubs , has admitted about 1 in 10 of his workers is from overseas.

    But he told BuzzFeed his decision to back Brexit had nothing to do with immigration.

    He said: “Those people who are entitled to work here from the EU now should be entitled to work here after the referendum. If we leave, the rules should be the same as they were in Ireland before the EU – where people from Ireland could come and work here.”

    He added he’s personally pro-immigration, and his big problem with the EU is that it’s not democratic."

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/pro-brexit-wetherspoons-boss-admits-8109824
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited March 2017
    Watching the Democratics do a Labour is bizarre. For once the UK is leading...

    "A troubling new poll was just released showing that the Democratic Party is significantly less popular than both Donald Trump and Mike Pence. My gut tells me that Democrats will ignore this poll, or blame it on bad polling, and continue down the same course they are currently on: being funded by lobbyists and the 1%, straddling the fence or outright ignoring many of most inspirational issues of the time, and blaming Bernie Sanders for why they aren’t in power right now.

    ...In other words, the Democratic Party has a favorability rating 11 points lower than Pence, nine points lower than Trump, and even one point lower than the GOP.

    Their unfavorable rating is 17 points worse than Pence, five points worse than Trump, and four points worse than the GOP.
    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/king-democratic-party-doesn-unpopular-article-1.2993659
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2017

    You really have to wonder why the media are in collective meltdown over the NIC change. Their reporting becomes more hysterical by the minute but not once have they highlighted the IFS, Resolution Foundation or Matthew Taylor all endorsing the change. Furthermore they have abandoned the favourable polling on the issue.

    You do have to wonder how many of these journalists have been caught out by the policy as there seems to be no other explanation for their bias, especially as 85% of the populace are not affected, and it is supported by a majority of conservative, lib dem and UKIP voters

    It can't be because they are caught by it, since the amount of money people might lose out on is peanuts.

    Isn't it more that they get into a mutual frenzy because they are desperate to find a story? 'Dull budget, Tory MPs broadly content' doesn't give them much of a peg to hang a story on. 'White van man clobbered, Tory manifesto in shreds, huge rebellion brewing' does.

    Similarly, by any objective standard pasty-gate was a complete non-story, a purely technical clarification of the VAT rules to plug a tiny little loophole which Greggs were exploiting. Somehow, it was blown up into an 'omnishambles'.

    The main difference is that Balls and Miliband had enough political nous to get some political mileage out of the fake indignation, but Corbyn doesn't.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Love the way that such prominence is given to the results of polls like this - "Do you think the budget was fair?" How the f##k do they know whether or not it was fair - they haven't looked in to it in any detail.

    If the referendum taught us anything it is that the public don't f##king know anything!

    The wisdom of crowds :lol:
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    kjh said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    The NYT have been caught memory holing - did they think we wouldn't notice?

    It's destroying themselves Part 94

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/03/new-york-times-goes-back-and-changes-january-headline-from-wiretapped-to-intercepted-to-bash-trump/

    Maybe you would not notice because it did not happen.

    http://www.snopes.com/nytimes-wiretap-articles/
    Snopes is pretty much discredited. They've been caught out re political agendas. Let them stick to BigFoot.
    So the web page you read doesn't have a political agenda? I think to most normal people looking at it would think its agenda rather one sided and extreme. And you dismiss another site (which also probably has an agenda as most do) without even looking at the content for this story which was analytical and without researching in any depth did seem credible.

    Your posts on Trump are cult like in the extreme. You are happy to accept the most convoluted conspiracies to explain anything. The man can do no wrong in your eyes and the Democrats and media are just evil bastards.

    The posts on this site range from left to right but nobody defends who they support like you do. Your insight into the Trump campaign and regime is really interesting but your god like adulation just isn't normal.
    Ms Said is a troll.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,014
    Bojabob said:

    Meanwhile, I note that Guy Verhofstadt is pushing harder for letting Brits keep their EU citizenship after Brexit. If it cost, say £100 a year, I would certainly keep mine.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39228245

    I do find this idea amusing. The proponents seem to think it is a masterstroke to undermine Brexit when if anything it makes things easier. There is no demand for the UK to reciprocate which means UK citizens will be getting preferential treatment from the EU whilst there is no cost or compulsion placed on the UK at all .
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited March 2017

    Mr. 124, saw a graphic on Twitter indicating the polls have overestimated the Conservatives once in the last 50 years or so.

    Here we are: https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/840151266747539456

    That relates to Polling Averages at election time. Also interesting to note that when it last happened - in 1983 - the final polls were predicting a Tory lead over Labour in the range of 16 - 22% with the outcome being a 15.2% Tory lead. It is but one of the examples of massive leads for one party failing to be fully reflected in the final result. Other examples being - 1966 - Oct 1974 - 1997 - 2001.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,673
    PlatoSaid said:
    What on earth has that got to do with the two articles?

    You do not seem to have any concept of how sucked into this cult mentality you are, but I guess that is how cults work.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    I do find this idea amusing. The proponents seem to think it is a masterstroke to undermine Brexit when if anything it makes things easier. There is no demand for the UK to reciprocate which means UK citizens will be getting preferential treatment from the EU whilst there is no cost or compulsion placed on the UK at all .

    Yes, and it's also funny because our EU friends go on and on about 'no cherry-picking', and here's one of them offering a bowl of cherries for us to pick if we want.

    Anyway, it's not going to happen.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited March 2017

    You do have to wonder how many of these journalists have been caught out by the policy as there seems to be no other explanation for their bias

    For once I agree with you

    (checks outside for Blue Moon)
    It's quite reminiscent of the child benefit phasing from a few years ago, something that affected pretty much the entire Commentariat to the point that they couldn't think straight, about both the issue itself and how it looked to their middle England readers. A bit like the Daily Mail's "JAMs" on £100k who are worried if they can afford the skiing holiday this year as the school fees just went up.

    These people are all in the top 2-3% of earners, but think they're around average. Average for Richmond or Primrose Hill is very different from average in the UK as a whole.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited March 2017
    235,000 US jobs added. Rate hike expected next week.

    Watch the GBP-USD limbo continue.

    Trump has inherited an economy going absolubtely gangbusters.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    the report makes it clear that Madrid wants a soft Brexit, rather than an outcome that punishes London. That said, Spain is aware of the way things are likely to go. “Theresa May’s speech on January 17 is definitive;” “it excludes a new relationship framework that supposes the continuance of the United Kingdom in the single market.”

    The document highlights the need for Brussels to bear in mind Spanish demands in the withdrawal negotiations ­– with similar positions to Ireland, Poland and Italy – on issues such as social security, free movement of people and tourism. “The objective is to provide certainty to citizens and to support the [European] Commission in its negotiating role. At the end of the process, the United Kingdom cannot be in a better situation outside the EU than inside it. But if London doesn’t play dirty, the best thing would be not to cause mutual damage,” say Spanish sources.


    http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/03/10/inenglish/1489134826_157952.html
  • Options

    Love the way that such prominence is given to the results of polls like this - "Do you think the budget was fair?" How the f##k do they know whether or not it was fair - they haven't looked in to it in any detail.

    If the referendum taught us anything it is that the public don't f##king know anything!

    And you do I suppose?
    No - I'd say Don't Know
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164

    HYUFD said:

    Leading Brexiteer calls for special migration deal with EU 'because it's closer than India and China'.

    https://twitter.com/michaelpdeacon/status/839753210252386305

    If only he'd noticed before.
    Yet another millionaire Leaver happy to exploit the grievances of the white working and lower middle classes when it suits and throw them under a bus when it doesn't, May will treat such arguments with the contempt they deserve, even if it is only a job offer requirement she is controlling EU immigration
    She's visited India and Turkey in order to try to get deals, will the quid pro quo be more Turkish and Indian visas? Given Leave's campaigning that would be ironic.
    For business people maybe but May backed Remain in the first place
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    edited March 2017
    PlatoSaid said:

    Watching the Democratics do a Labour is bizarre. For once the UK is leading...

    "A troubling new poll was just released showing that the Democratic Party is significantly less popular than both Donald Trump and Mike Pence. My gut tells me that Democrats will ignore this poll, or blame it on bad polling, and continue down the same course they are currently on: being funded by lobbyists and the 1%, straddling the fence or outright ignoring many of most inspirational issues of the time, and blaming Bernie Sanders for why they aren’t in power right now.

    ...In other words, the Democratic Party has a favorability rating 11 points lower than Pence, nine points lower than Trump, and even one point lower than the GOP.

    Their unfavorable rating is 17 points worse than Pence, five points worse than Trump, and four points worse than the GOP.
    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/king-democratic-party-doesn-unpopular-article-1.2993659

    You ignore the early House polling which shows the Democrats ahead and the fact midterms are always determined by the President's approval rating and not those of the opposition party and Trump's approval rating is already the lowest at this stage of his presidency since Clinton's
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    You do have to wonder how many of these journalists have been caught out by the policy as there seems to be no other explanation for their bias

    For once I agree with you

    (checks outside for Blue Moon)

    I hope we can agree on many more things in the future Beverley - as the saying goes there is more that unites us than divides us
    Let us hope so Mr G. Throwing hatchets at each other rarely achieves good results :)
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Pulpstar said:

    235,000 US jobs added. Rate hike expected next week.

    Watch the GBP-USD limbo continue.

    Trump has inherited an economy going absolubtely gangbusters.

    Typical, just as I'm negotiating for some work that will pay in Sterling!

    TBH the BoE should really follow the Fed, half a point on interest rates will give a damper to inflation and support the pound in the $1.20-1.25 range, as much as the govt would like to see a good dose of inflation help with the national debt right now. With hindsight It was the wrong decision to make the cut last August, as I said at the time.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Sandpit said:

    You do have to wonder how many of these journalists have been caught out by the policy as there seems to be no other explanation for their bias

    For once I agree with you

    (checks outside for Blue Moon)
    It's quite reminiscent of the child benefit phasing from a few years ago, something that affected pretty much the entire Commentariat to the point that they couldn't think straight, about both the issue itself and how it looked to their middle England readers. A bit like the Daily Mail's "JAMs" on £100k who are worried if they can afford the skiing holiday this year as the school fees just went up.

    These people are all in the top 2-3% of earners, but think they're around average. Average for Richmond or Primrose Hill is very different from average in the UK as a whole.
    Maybe there is a reason they have bags of money.... they certainly complain loudly enough if so much as a tuppence ha'penny in their horde is threatened :)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leading Brexiteer calls for special migration deal with EU 'because it's closer than India and China'.

    https://twitter.com/michaelpdeacon/status/839753210252386305

    If only he'd noticed before.
    Yet another millionaire Leaver happy to exploit the grievances of the white working and lower middle classes when it suits and throw them under a bus when it doesn't, May will treat such arguments with the contempt they deserve, even if it is only a job offer requirement she is controlling EU immigration
    Oh dear

    All this indignation, the remainers think they are on to something, start high fiving each other like PSG players after a 4-0 home win...and then, as with the blacking up of Gina Miller, Irene Clennell's deportation etc etc, a quick google reveals this from last June...

    "J.D. Wetherspoon boss Tim Martin, who made headlines earlier this week by distributing pro-Brexit 200,000 beermats to his pubs , has admitted about 1 in 10 of his workers is from overseas.

    But he told BuzzFeed his decision to back Brexit had nothing to do with immigration.

    He said: “Those people who are entitled to work here from the EU now should be entitled to work here after the referendum. If we leave, the rules should be the same as they were in Ireland before the EU – where people from Ireland could come and work here.”

    He added he’s personally pro-immigration, and his big problem with the EU is that it’s not democratic."

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/pro-brexit-wetherspoons-boss-admits-8109824
    He was quite happy to fund the Leave campaign which exploited the immigration issue for its own benefit
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I do enjoy this sort of dual standard thinking

    https://youtu.be/J8wxl35-Img
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    235,000 US jobs added. Rate hike expected next week.

    Watch the GBP-USD limbo continue.

    Trump has inherited an economy going absolubtely gangbusters.

    Typical, just as I'm negotiating for some work that will pay in Sterling!

    TBH the BoE should really follow the Fed, half a point on interest rates will give a damper to inflation and support the pound in the $1.20-1.25 range, as much as the govt would like to see a good dose of inflation help with the national debt right now. With hindsight It was the wrong decision to make the cut last August, as I said at the time.
    Given the reaction to a minor increase in NICs for a few people in this week's budget, can you imagine the furore there would be if the BoE added 0.5 pp to interest rates?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    French election. Opinionway daily rolling poll:

    Macron up 1 point to 26, now level with Le Pen. His highest rating yet in this poll.

    Fillon down 1 mmto 20

    Macron now shows a 30 point lead over Le Pen in second round.

    http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1

    Macron and Le Pen are tied in round 1 and I round 2 Macron leads Le Pen 65% to 35%. However if you add Le Pen' s 26% and the 20% for Fillon you get to 46%, add in a few more from Melenchon and DuPont Aignan and she is over 50% and wins. To win the presidency against the odds that is the runoff coalition she has to build
    Yes, but presumably the majority of the 20% of people who said they would vote for Fillon have already decided not to vote for Le Pen second round if their man gets knocked out, hence the 65-35% result of the head to head. Most of the additional support she wil get will come from Fillon voters, but according to that head to head, she will get less than half of them
    Opionway is showing better than average results for Macron, Ifop for example now has Le Pen winning a narrow plurality of Fillon voters in the runoff against Macron with about a third abstaining. She needs to convert those abstentions into Le Pen votes and squeeze the votes of Fillon voters currently switching to Macron plus add a few from Melenchon. DuPont Aignan voters are probably already for her in the runoff, Macron and Hamon voters will not touch her in the runoff and she can ignore them on the whole
    I would vote for NPA, but could never vote for Le Pen.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    235,000 US jobs added. Rate hike expected next week.

    Watch the GBP-USD limbo continue.

    Trump has inherited an economy going absolubtely gangbusters.

    Typical, just as I'm negotiating for some work that will pay in Sterling!

    TBH the BoE should really follow the Fed, half a point on interest rates will give a damper to inflation and support the pound in the $1.20-1.25 range, as much as the govt would like to see a good dose of inflation help with the national debt right now. With hindsight It was the wrong decision to make the cut last August, as I said at the time.
    Given the reaction to a minor increase in NICs for a few people in this week's budget, can you imagine the furore there would be if the BoE added 0.5 pp to interest rates?
    One advantage of an independent Bank of England is that these decisions are no longer in the hands of the politicians!

    Given the trend in inflation and that CPI is a lagging indicator, it is certainly easier to argue for a small rise than against it right now, although in practice the Bank will probably wait a couple of months to see if there's any immediate fallout from the A50 declaration - as a guess I'd say it's pretty much priced in now though.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,673
    kjh said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    What on earth has that got to do with the two articles?

    You do not seem to have any concept of how sucked into this cult mentality you are, but I guess that is how cults work.

    I think the below comment to the Mailonline article says it all. With possibly the exception of yourself I don't think anybody assumes a Mailonline article will be factual and unbiased and it is not as if they don't have a very obvious axe to grind here and it was unrelated to the fact checking issue anyway. But if you want to believe the sites that support your point of view even if they use contorted logic and think those that don't support your view are lying regardless then you will continue to live in a world of alien abductions.

    Everything is biased in some way except facts (even those if not complete) and logic.

    Quote from comments under article:

    "When I started to read the article I thought that maybe someone at Snopes had a really discreditable profession, like being a journalist on the Daily Mail. Luckily it just seems that some might be sex workers. Do you guys at the Mail ever read your own articles and think, "This is total BS. I wanted to be a journalist to tell the truth to the world, but now I write twisted propaganda pieces for a xenophobic comic."? Of course you are going to attack Snopes - they rightly call you out on the rubbish you guys churn out day after day."


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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819

    Bojabob said:

    Meanwhile, I note that Guy Verhofstadt is pushing harder for letting Brits keep their EU citizenship after Brexit. If it cost, say £100 a year, I would certainly keep mine.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39228245

    I do find this idea amusing. The proponents seem to think it is a masterstroke to undermine Brexit when if anything it makes things easier. There is no demand for the UK to reciprocate which means UK citizens will be getting preferential treatment from the EU whilst there is no cost or compulsion placed on the UK at all .
    It's certainly something the UK government should welcome. Theresa could neutralise the remainer backlash, allowing her to pursue a hard brexit without any real opposition in the UK.

    For the reason you state, I don't see it happening, seems to be just a hobby horse of Verhofstadt. There would be a huge backlash among Eastern European states if we got preferential treatment while their citizens didn't.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,164
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    HYUFD said:

    BudG said:

    French election. Opinionway daily rolling poll:

    Macron up 1 point to 26, now level with Le Pen. His highest rating yet in this poll.

    Fillon down 1 mmto 20

    Macron now shows a 30 point lead over Le Pen in second round.

    http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1

    Macron and Le Pen are tied in round 1 and I round 2 Macron leads Le Pen 65% to 35%. However if you add Le Pen' s 26% and the 20% for Fillon you get to 46%, add in a few more from Melenchon and DuPont Aignan and she is over 50% and wins. To win the presidency against the odds that is the runoff coalition she has to build
    Yes, but presumably the majority of the 20% of people who said they would vote for Fillon have already decided not to vote for Le Pen second round if their man gets knocked out, hence the 65-35% result of the head to head. Most of the additional support she wil get will come from Fillon voters, but according to that head to head, she will get less than half of them
    Opionway is showing better than average results for Macron, Ifop for example now has Le Pen winning a narrow plurality of Fillon voters in the runoff against Macron with about a third abstaining. She needs to convert those abstentions into Le Pen votes and squeeze the votes of Fillon voters currently switching to Macron plus add a few from Melenchon. DuPont Aignan voters are probably already for her in the runoff, Macron and Hamon voters will not touch her in the runoff and she can ignore them on the whole
    I would vote for NPA, but could never vote for Le Pen.
    NPA voters are in the same anti EU and anti immigration pool as Le Pen
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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 725

    So much for the SCon conference - Scottish Labour Surge Klaxon:

    Con: 19
    Lab: 25
    LibD: 3
    UKIP: 3
    SNP: 48

    Eight-point margin of error with that Scottish subsample (95% confidence level). The last full Scotland-only poll was Panelbase back in late January:

    Con: 27
    Lab: 15
    LibD: 4
    UKIP: 1
    SNP: 47
    MOE: +/- 3 points

    Labour's score in that one was more in keeping with the average of recent subsamples (ICM 17%, Opinium 18%, Ipsos MORI 18%). Tories look high, but they did get 32% in the Ipsos MORI subsample and 30% with ICM (24% with Opinium).
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