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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB moves to 19% deficit with YouGov, drops vote share in all

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  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    it ticks atleast one diversity box I guess.......
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,978

    YouGov's before the equivalent of this year's English local elections:

    13/03/09
    Con 41
    Lab 31
    LibD 17
    Oth 10

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010

    08/03/13
    Lab 41
    Con 31
    LibD 11
    UKIP 10

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention

    If on local election night these two results are declared:

    Derbyshire
    CON gain from LAB

    Nottinghamshire
    CON gain from LAB

    Can Corbyn survive ?
    The answer ought to be No, but everything is unpredictable.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Doesn't suck as much as the current leader.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Sean_F said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Re Lib Dems - they took a couple of seats off Tories in Oxfordshire last night, yet vote was down in that Derby seat, but there doesn't seem to be much upward movement on You Gov. They don't appear to be able to break above 10%, Farron is touted as a good organiser, but if LDs gains are small at locals, will he be turfed out, or are there no viable alternatives?

    The Lib Dems should do well in May in places like Surrey, South Cambridgeshire, and the M3 and M4 corridors. Anywhere that there was a big middle class Remain vote. They'll struggle in working class areas and areas that had a big Leave vote. They should come out of the elections with a reasonable net gain.
    I think that's absolutely right. I think they'll manage a high teens NEV share, and pass UKIP. (Who, I suspect, will see their share halve and lose most of their councillors.)

    It is worth remembering with the LDs that although they saw their vote share hammered in 2013, they actually saw only very modest losses of councillors, and and actually made gains in some places. For this reason, I suspect that their gains will be quite limited: perhaps 50-100 net gains across the country.

    From a LibDem Watch point of view, next year (assuming there isn't a General Election in the interim) will be much more interesting, as that's when the London boroughs have their elections. Will the LD resurgence come through in Richmond and Kingston - where losing the council presaged the loss of local MPs?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    nunu said:

    d Greening‏ @EJGreening 6h6 hours ago

    @mg1967gone Corbyn isn't even that left wing. Left of centre would be a better description

    !!!!!!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048

    Jonathan said:

    If we believe Mike all these centre left voters are looking for somewhere to go. The Lib Dems are there with open arms. And yet the party can't beat Nutalls UKIP.

    If they can't prosper now, will they ever prosper?

    Its still or is its still possible that a new Social democrat party will emerge from the wreckage?
    How many times has it been proved that the vast majority of the PLP have no spine. They went for Corbyn once and failed. How could they have screwed that up.....
    Shot too soon.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,977
    nunu said:

    Corbyn needs to be replaced by AI.

    To be fair, any kind of intelligence would do.

  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,920

    rkrkrk said:

    Morning all.

    The 25% Labour floor of vote share is looking rather fragile, Jeremy needs another relaunch.

    Its an interesting question what the floor is. Nor sure how much support is actually the die hard loony left, but I think 19% might be rock bottom. (of course at 25% it might in reality only be 22%)
    Didn't Gordon Brown poll at 19% once?
    Not according to http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010
    Thanks for the link.
    Looks like Labour polled at 18% once with Mori at end of may 2009?
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    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    If we believe Mike all these centre left voters are looking for somewhere to go. The Lib Dems are there with open arms. And yet the party can't beat Nutalls UKIP.

    If they can't prosper now, will they ever prosper?

    Voters are attracted or repulsed by leaders. No one knows who the Lib Dem leader is.

    He needs a scandal urgently
    :+1:

    It could be the making of him, and Paddy Pantsdown proved that a scandal was not harmful even in the short term.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Thompson, will work Sundays without complaint too.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,020
    edited March 2017

    FPT

    DavidL said

    ":What the furore really highlights for me is what a pernicious tax employers national insurance is. Taxing someone for employing someone else. It's really nuts and a major driver of all the pretend self employment we have these days with people losing security of employment, sick and holiday pay and maternity rights as a result. Employers NI is evil and getting rid of it would address a range of issues."

    I would suggest exactly the opposite. The problem is that employers want a well educated and healthy workforce but are not willing to pay for it. It is the same problem as we have with employers wanting to.import labour from overseas and then wash their hands of them when they are no longer needed.

    If anything we need to extend employers NI contributions. Make the end user companies of self employed or consultants directly responsible for paying the NI just as they do with staff. Bear in mind that once Hammond's SE NI increases are passed, as I am sure they will be, SE NI rates will only be 1% less than PAYE for employees but the employers will still be paying nothing.

    Ever wonder why there is such a drive towards automation when employers are punished time and again for offering employment?

    If I purchase a machine to do a job then I can reclaim any VAT that was spent on purchasing it, so essentially only owe VAT on marginal profit. There are no further major on-going taxes I can think of.

    If I hire a person to do the same job then I owe: wages, employers National Insurance, pension contributions, essentially VAT on the wages too, on top of potentially six months of sick pay, etc, etc, etc

    Even if a person is economically more efficient than a machine the tax system penalises employment so much what incentive is there to not go for a machine if possible?
    Of course companies should go whichever route is most cost effective for them. But if they are going to employ workers then they take on responsibility for them - particularly if as is the case they are intent on importing their workforce from overseas. If that is the case then they should be held responsible for the needs of those employees for as long as they remain in the country. Of course this is a slightly different issue to NI but the basic principle remains. If companies will not volunteer corporate responsibility they should be made to through the tax system.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,471
    edited March 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Re Lib Dems - they took a couple of seats off Tories in Oxfordshire last night, yet vote was down in that Derby seat, but there doesn't seem to be much upward movement on You Gov. They don't appear to be able to break above 10%, Farron is touted as a good organiser, but if LDs gains are small at locals, will he be turfed out, or are there no viable alternatives?

    The Lib Dems should do well in May in places like Surrey, South Cambridgeshire, and the M3 and M4 corridors. Anywhere that there was a big middle class Remain vote. They'll struggle in working class areas and areas that had a big Leave vote. They should come out of the elections with a reasonable net gain.
    I think that's absolutely right. I think they'll manage a high teens NEV share, and pass UKIP. (Who, I suspect, will see their share halve and lose most of their councillors.)

    It is worth remembering with the LDs that although they saw their vote share hammered in 2013, they actually saw only very modest losses of councillors, and and actually made gains in some places. For this reason, I suspect that their gains will be quite limited: perhaps 50-100 net gains across the country.

    From a LibDem Watch point of view, next year (assuming there isn't a General Election in the interim) will be much more interesting, as that's when the London boroughs have their elections. Will the LD resurgence come through in Richmond and Kingston - where losing the council presaged the loss of local MPs?
    Although I'd incline to agree, it is nevertheless remarkable that the LibDems have chalked up some impressive local by-election results in Leave areas also, including Sunderland and Rotherham (the latter their first ever councillor elected there).

    London is the interesting one - so far there is less evidence that it is following the rest of the country away from Labour, despite its strong remain vote.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. kle4, was it the timing, or the ammunition? Firing blanks isn't the best way to commit regicide.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,978
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Re Lib Dems - they took a couple of seats off Tories in Oxfordshire last night, yet vote was down in that Derby seat, but there doesn't seem to be much upward movement on You Gov. They don't appear to be able to break above 10%, Farron is touted as a good organiser, but if LDs gains are small at locals, will he be turfed out, or are there no viable alternatives?

    The Lib Dems should do well in May in places like Surrey, South Cambridgeshire, and the M3 and M4 corridors. Anywhere that there was a big middle class Remain vote. They'll struggle in working class areas and areas that had a big Leave vote. They should come out of the elections with a reasonable net gain.
    I think that's absolutely right. I think they'll manage a high teens NEV share, and pass UKIP. (Who, I suspect, will see their share halve and lose most of their councillors.)

    It is worth remembering with the LDs that although they saw their vote share hammered in 2013, they actually saw only very modest losses of councillors, and and actually made gains in some places. For this reason, I suspect that their gains will be quite limited: perhaps 50-100 net gains across the country.

    From a LibDem Watch point of view, next year (assuming there isn't a General Election in the interim) will be much more interesting, as that's when the London boroughs have their elections. Will the LD resurgence come through in Richmond and Kingston - where losing the council presaged the loss of local MPs?
    Can they also come back in Camden, Islington, and Hornsey & Wood Green, as the party of Remain (probably yes, IMO).
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    Metro reports on a dominatrix in Plymouth called 'Mistress Magpie' who says she will be hit hard by NIC changes and plans to stand as a Labour councillor
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    YouGov's before the equivalent of this year's English local elections:

    13/03/09
    Con 41
    Lab 31
    LibD 17
    Oth 10

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010

    08/03/13
    Lab 41
    Con 31
    LibD 11
    UKIP 10

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention

    If on local election night these two results are declared:

    Derbyshire
    CON gain from LAB

    Nottinghamshire
    CON gain from LAB

    Can Corbyn survive ?
    His membership don't care about winning. But I think I know what it would take for the members to turn, it would have to be a big loss to ukip. If they lost Stoke he would have to go. The SWJ class in labour don't like Tories but absolutley CANNOT STAND UKIP. They even complained about using the England flag on a leaflet in Stoke. They believe UKIP are the far-right and a defeat to them is unforgivable.

    Atleast thats my sense from twitter where a dispropotionate number of them spend their time. That is THE only time I have heard them be flaky on him. The only one.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    Davis also proposing Scotland can take more EU migrants than the rest of the UK as part of a Brexit deal
  • Options
    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    Roger said:

    Excuse the vulgarity but there must come a time when Corbyn realizes he's the t***in the U-bend and for the fragrent running of our democracy as he can't be flushed out by his colleagues he should remove himself.

    Corbyn has no interest in:
    1. Winning elections
    2. Parliament
    3. Offering British voters a credible opposition
    4. The Labour party
    His only interest is in advancing the cause of the far left. There is no way on God's earth he will ever stand down voluntarily. That's why it is still going to take a bit more time for him to go. But he will be gone way before 2020.


    Interesting, I said to a friend a while back that Corbyn has no interest in power, he's a professional protestor. The problem for Labour is far more serious, when he goes there is nobody remotely capable of becoming PM.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    macisback said:

    The NIC rise is dead already, May realises she wouldn't get it through parliament. The exit strategy will be interesting as will the future of Hammond.

    As for Corbyn it might have to be brought forward the time he moves aside. It could now be this year, who could take over who Lenny would accept. My money will be on Thornberry, although I wouldn't rule the snake Burnham out.

    No it is staying Amy's huge poll lead and public support for it ensures that plus the need to fund social care, she has just moved it to the Autumn. Corbyn has said he is staying until 2020
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    For those with strong stomachs:

    https://www.theguardian.com/global/2017/mar/10/internet-warriors-inside-dark-world-of-online-trolls-kyrre-lien

    Editorial summary - it's not that trolls are perfectly normal people who change personality online. They're really like that.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited March 2017

    How self-employed backlash could decimate the Tory majority at a future election

    In St Ives, a constituency won by the Conservatives from the Lib Dems in 2015, some 38.3 per cent are self-employed.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/09/self-employed-backlash-could-decimate-tory-majority-future-election/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_fb

    Perhaps reading your own link would be the logical thing to do? It is nonsense: "decimate" in the headline, 11 tory seats at risk in the actual text. "Decimate" depends on the current tory maj being less than 11. So what sort of "future election" are we talking about? If by-election, they generally happen in ones or at most twos, not elevens. If general election, the map is going to turn blue on current trends, and a few traditionally lib seats going the wrong way doesn't matter.

    And I have no idea why St Ives is so heavily self-employed (fishing? freelance bed n breakfast cleaning?) but I live within walking distance of Cornwall and I can tell you it is poor - really poor. The NI changes as I understand it (from someone on here) are in favour of those on up to £16,500 p.a. If you apply that filter to St Ives, I am guessing you are left with a number of voters which would fit into one taxi.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    HYUFD said:

    Davis also proposing Scotland can take more EU migrants than the rest of the UK as part of a Brexit deal

    and how will they be stopped from coming here? A hard border? and if they are caught working in London will they be deported, will the rules even be enforced, i doubt it....they weren't last time. Basically there won't be any significant control on immigration. Oh well if the politicians keep ignoring us we will keep sending them a message untill they get it right.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,471

    Roger said:

    Excuse the vulgarity but there must come a time when Corbyn realizes he's the t***in the U-bend and for the fragrent running of our democracy as he can't be flushed out by his colleagues he should remove himself.

    Corbyn has no interest in:
    1. Winning elections
    2. Parliament
    3. Offering British voters a credible opposition
    4. The Labour party
    His only interest is in advancing the cause of the far left. There is no way on God's earth he will ever stand down voluntarily. That's why it is still going to take a bit more time for him to go. But he will be gone way before 2020.


    Interesting, I said to a friend a while back that Corbyn has no interest in power, he's a professional protestor. The problem for Labour is far more serious, when he goes there is nobody remotely capable of becoming PM.
    +1

    even those few bigger hitter they have won't have seen front-line politics for some years, having sat out Corbyn's tenure on the back benches, rather than build a base and demonstrate their capabilities on the front bench.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Re Lib Dems - they took a couple of seats off Tories in Oxfordshire last night, yet vote was down in that Derby seat, but there doesn't seem to be much upward movement on You Gov. They don't appear to be able to break above 10%, Farron is touted as a good organiser, but if LDs gains are small at locals, will he be turfed out, or are there no viable alternatives?

    The Lib Dems should do well in May in places like Surrey, South Cambridgeshire, and the M3 and M4 corridors. Anywhere that there was a big middle class Remain vote. They'll struggle in working class areas and areas that had a big Leave vote. They should come out of the elections with a reasonable net gain.
    I think that's absolutely right. I think they'll manage a high teens NEV share, and pass UKIP. (Who, I suspect, will see their share halve and lose most of their councillors.)

    It is worth remembering with the LDs that although they saw their vote share hammered in 2013, they actually saw only very modest losses of councillors, and and actually made gains in some places. For this reason, I suspect that their gains will be quite limited: perhaps 50-100 net gains across the country.

    From a LibDem Watch point of view, next year (assuming there isn't a General Election in the interim) will be much more interesting, as that's when the London boroughs have their elections. Will the LD resurgence come through in Richmond and Kingston - where losing the council presaged the loss of local MPs?
    Can they also come back in Camden, Islington, and Hornsey & Wood Green, as the party of Remain (probably yes, IMO).
    From a pure personal amusement perspective, I'm looking forward to SeanT ending up in a LibDem ward :smile:
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207
    You couldn't make it up:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39225847

    One man has been arrested. The 36-year-old suspect from the former Yugoslavia suffers from psychological problems, Duesseldorf police said.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,471
    Ishmael_Z said:

    How self-employed backlash could decimate the Tory majority at a future election

    In St Ives, a constituency won by the Conservatives from the Lib Dems in 2015, some 38.3 per cent are self-employed.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/09/self-employed-backlash-could-decimate-tory-majority-future-election/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_fb

    Perhaps reading your own link would be the logical thing to do? It is nonsense: "decimate" in the headline, 11 tory seats at risk in the actual text. "Decimate" depends on the current tory maj being less than 11. So what sort of "future election" are we talking about? If by-election, they generally happen in ones or at most twos, not elevens. If general election, the map is going to turn blue on current trends, and a few traditionally lib seats going the wrong way doesn't matter.

    And I have no idea why St Ives is so heavily self-employed (fishing? freelance bed n breakfast cleaning?) but I live within walking distance of Cornwall and I can tell you it is poor - really poor. The NI changes as I understand it (from someone on here) are in favour of those on up to £16,500 p.a. If you apply that filter to St Ives, I am guessing you are left with a number of voters which would fit into one taxi.
    ...you live in John O'Groats?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002

    isam said:

    Off topic, but I would appreciate it if anybody can shed any light on this puzzler

    Was David Cameron's pre referendum renegotiation package go to a House of Commons vote before it could be presented to the country? Would it have if Remain had won?


    I don't think so. As if it didn't fundamentally change any rights/laws, then it wouldn't need to.

    Cheers. Sorry for the poor/nonsense edit!
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,273
    HYUFD said:

    Davis also proposing Scotland can take more EU migrants than the rest of the UK as part of a Brexit deal

    That'll look nice on a photoshopped scroll on a tabloid front page.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,901
    edited March 2017

    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    If we believe Mike all these centre left voters are looking for somewhere to go. The Lib Dems are there with open arms. And yet the party can't beat Nutalls UKIP.

    If they can't prosper now, will they ever prosper?

    Voters are attracted or repulsed by leaders. No one knows who the Lib Dem leader is.

    He needs a scandal urgently
    :+1:

    It could be the making of him, and Paddy Pantsdown proved that a scandal was not harmful even in the short term.
    He could always do a 'Mark Oaten' if he's got the stomach for it.
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    HYUFD said:

    Metro reports on a dominatrix in Plymouth called 'Mistress Magpie' who says she will be hit hard by NIC changes and plans to stand as a Labour councillor

    Ignore she has any experience around the dockside she might be of great help for labour in 2020.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited March 2017
    All recent polls now suggest Rutte leads Wilders in the Netherlands.

    This is ahead of two debates next week where for the first time both men will feature.

    Equally the PVV's polling has not always translated into seats, outperforming significantly in 2010 then underperforming in 2012.

    According to polling the general trend is (a) a move right coupled with (b) the collapse of the Labour Party, whose votes are being redistributed elsewhere.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Ever wonder why there is such a drive towards automation when employers are punished time and again for offering employment?

    If I purchase a machine to do a job then I can reclaim any VAT that was spent on purchasing it, so essentially only owe VAT on marginal profit. There are no further major on-going taxes I can think of.

    If I hire a person to do the same job then I owe: wages, employers National Insurance, pension contributions, essentially VAT on the wages too, on top of potentially six months of sick pay, etc, etc, etc

    Even if a person is economically more efficient than a machine the tax system penalises employment so much what incentive is there to not go for a machine if possible?

    Of course companies should go whichever route is most cost effective for them. But if they are going to employ workers then they take on responsibility for them - particularly if as is the case they are intent on importing their workforce from overseas. If that is the case then they should be held responsible for the needs of those employees for as long as they remain in the country. Of course this is a slightly different issue to NI but the basic principle remains. If companies will not volunteer corporate responsibility they should be made to through the tax system.
    Most employees don't come from overseas. I've been an employer for over a decade and have never hired anyone direct from overseas. I have however hired people straight from the dole - relieving the taxpayer from having to pay for them - and getting penalised by taxes on top of taxes for having done so.

    I have always thought that the security and self-respect from having a job was a good thing.

    I don't understand why an employer offering struggling people jobs is something that should be penalised and discouraged through the tax system.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    IanB2 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    How self-employed backlash could decimate the Tory majority at a future election

    In St Ives, a constituency won by the Conservatives from the Lib Dems in 2015, some 38.3 per cent are self-employed.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/09/self-employed-backlash-could-decimate-tory-majority-future-election/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_fb

    Perhaps reading your own link would be the logical thing to do? It is nonsense: "decimate" in the headline, 11 tory seats at risk in the actual text. "Decimate" depends on the current tory maj being less than 11. So what sort of "future election" are we talking about? If by-election, they generally happen in ones or at most twos, not elevens. If general election, the map is going to turn blue on current trends, and a few traditionally lib seats going the wrong way doesn't matter.

    And I have no idea why St Ives is so heavily self-employed (fishing? freelance bed n breakfast cleaning?) but I live within walking distance of Cornwall and I can tell you it is poor - really poor. The NI changes as I understand it (from someone on here) are in favour of those on up to £16,500 p.a. If you apply that filter to St Ives, I am guessing you are left with a number of voters which would fit into one taxi.
    ...you live in John O'Groats?
    Yes I was thinking that claim was a bit flexible.

    If I started now I could get there for an early lunch.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167

    All recent polls now suggest Rutte leads Wilders in the Netherlands.

    This is ahead of two debates next week where for the first time both men will feature.

    Equally the PVV's polling has not always translated into seats, outperforming significantly in 2010 then underperforming in 2012.

    According to polling the general trend is (a) a move right coupled with (b) the collapse of the Labour Party, whose votes are being redistributed elsewhere.

    I see Rutte gave May a rather passionate embrace at the EU Summit yesterday, make of that what you will!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. 86, couldn't you?

    Differing migration policies for differing parts of the UK would make UKIP very happy.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited March 2017
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    Completely O/T but anyone who was brave and bought BT shares in the middle of their dodgy Italians scandal is laughing this morning as Open Reach break out sends price up.

    Serious question: is this good for our IT infrastructure in the long term? It contrasts with America where networks are wholly owned by whoever built them and increasingly the infra firms offer their own content. Basically the opposite of what we have here. The budget conjured up £15 million for a 5G hub (whatever that is); meanwhile, the Americans are going ahead with 5G trials in 11 cities.
    5G is wireless, while OpenReach (vs US cable) is wired.

    Samsung is doing a 5G trial in the UK, although I'm buggered if I can remember where. If you Google you can probably find it.

    The big difference between the US wired networks and ours is simply that in the US they are much happier to string cables up in the air and between houses. If you get cable in the UK, they have to dig a trench to your home. In the US, it'll usually go along cables above your head. Not having to dig up roads makes roll outs a lot cheaper.
    5G is wireless but depends on a cabled infrastructure. But the point was more about economics: because the Americans tolerate market distortions and local monopolies (not to mention protectionism and hidden subsidies) their companies are more able to invest in new technology and expand overseas.
    There was a time when Us domestic internet access shamed the UK. Now, due to the monopolistic practices of its providers US domestic internet access is a cesspit. They were given billions in handouts to roll out fibre networks across the US and just handed he money straight to the shareholders instead.
    And part of the motivation for 5G is to avoid the expense of last-mile cabling. Ironically, the need for fiber backhaul has meant a reverse-ferret on the value of cable backbones and the wonders of densification.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    notme said:

    HYUFD said:

    Metro reports on a dominatrix in Plymouth called 'Mistress Magpie' who says she will be hit hard by NIC changes and plans to stand as a Labour councillor

    Ignore she has any experience around the dockside she might be of great help for labour in 2020.
    Yes and sounds rather more entrepreneurial than Jezza
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    HYUFD said:

    Metro reports on a dominatrix in Plymouth called 'Mistress Magpie' who says she will be hit hard by NIC changes and plans to stand as a Labour councillor

    Hit hard - fnaaarh.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167

    HYUFD said:

    Davis also proposing Scotland can take more EU migrants than the rest of the UK as part of a Brexit deal

    That'll look nice on a photoshopped scroll on a tabloid front page.
    I am sure Scots will be grateful for all the extra Eastern European workers
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,727
    Ishmael_Z said:

    How self-employed backlash could decimate the Tory majority at a future election

    In St Ives, a constituency won by the Conservatives from the Lib Dems in 2015, some 38.3 per cent are self-employed.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/09/self-employed-backlash-could-decimate-tory-majority-future-election/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_fb

    Perhaps reading your own link would be the logical thing to do? It is nonsense: "decimate" in the headline, 11 tory seats at risk in the actual text. "Decimate" depends on the current tory maj being less than 11. So what sort of "future election" are we talking about? If by-election, they generally happen in ones or at most twos, not elevens. If general election, the map is going to turn blue on current trends, and a few traditionally lib seats going the wrong way doesn't matter.

    And I have no idea why St Ives is so heavily self-employed (fishing? freelance bed n breakfast cleaning?) but I live within walking distance of Cornwall and I can tell you it is poor - really poor. The NI changes as I understand it (from someone on here) are in favour of those on up to £16,500 p.a. If you apply that filter to St Ives, I am guessing you are left with a number of voters which would fit into one taxi.
    Well of course I read the article in the link.
    If you'd read it you would notice that the eleven seats they mention all had majorities under 10% (some well under) and self employed percentages above 20% (some well over). They were just showing the constituencies that made the point most graphically.
    Tories used to be in favour of small businesses calling them the 'engine' of the economy, the raising of NI will slow that engine and help convince voters that the Tories are no longer the party of small businesses.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited March 2017

    BREXIT Diaries - fascinating insights into the views of Leavers & Remainers (and its more complicated than that...)

    http://britainthinks.com/pdfs/BritainThinks_Brexit-Diaries-Breakfast-Briefing_FINAL.pdf

    Definitely fascinating.

    The "Diehard Leavers" come across as verging on xenophobic or possibly monomanics. They will endure anything to keep foreigners out. Sovereignty is just a method of keeping the foreigners out.

    The "Diehard Remainers" come across as needing counselling for depression.

    As usual, the bulk of people are in the middle. It is interesting that even the Diehard Leavers think we have no better than a 50/50 chance of a good deal. All other groups think our chances of a deal are worse.

    Where would I place myself on their continuum? For years I was a reluctant "Better Off Out" but when the referendum started to become a reality I looked at the economics and shifted from Reluctant Leaver to Reluctant Remainer, but it was the emergence of intolerance towards people who have done nothing other than to come here and help and contribute that pushed me firmly into the Remain camp.

    If you had told me 5 years ago that I would be a Remainer I would never have believed it :)
  • Options
    jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    Buffy the Vampire Slayer 20 years old today. Man do I feel old!
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Jonathan said:

    If we believe Mike all these centre left voters are looking for somewhere to go. The Lib Dems are there with open arms. And yet the party can't beat Nutalls UKIP.

    If they can't prosper now, will they ever prosper?

    Its still or is its still possible that a new Social democrat party will emerge from the wreckage?
    How many times has it been proved that the vast majority of the PLP have no spine. They went for Corbyn once and failed. How could they have screwed that up.....
    To be fair to the PLP, with any other party, coordinated mass resignations and a vote of no confidence would have removed their party leader. However, due to an odd mix of party rules and a brazenly stubborn Jeremy, all their effort came to naught.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davis also proposing Scotland can take more EU migrants than the rest of the UK as part of a Brexit deal

    and how will they be stopped from coming here? A hard border? and if they are caught working in London will they be deported, will the rules even be enforced, i doubt it....they weren't last time. Basically there won't be any significant control on immigration. Oh well if the politicians keep ignoring us we will keep sending them a message untill they get it right.
    Who knows maybe though Davis is clearly beginning to play the SNP at their own game, you can stay in parts of the single market as long as you take the extra migrants that go with it
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited March 2017
    jonny83 said:

    Buffy the Vampire Slayer 20 years old today. Man do I feel old!

    Think how Buffy feels!

    I wonder if she has learned to smile yet?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mrs C, most men have.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,207

    Mr. 86, couldn't you?

    Differing migration policies for differing parts of the UK would make UKIP very happy.

    Okay, you could. The German police are very talented. Who knew they were experts in psychiatry?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,788
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davis also proposing Scotland can take more EU migrants than the rest of the UK as part of a Brexit deal

    That'll look nice on a photoshopped scroll on a tabloid front page.
    I am sure Scots will be grateful for all the extra Eastern European workers
    For reasons which remain a mystery Scotland currently attracts substantially fewer EU migrants than the rest of the U.K......
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited March 2017

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davis also proposing Scotland can take more EU migrants than the rest of the UK as part of a Brexit deal

    That'll look nice on a photoshopped scroll on a tabloid front page.
    I am sure Scots will be grateful for all the extra Eastern European workers
    For reasons which remain a mystery Scotland currently attracts substantially fewer EU migrants than the rest of the U.K......
    Well that would change pretty swiftly under these proposals
  • Options
    Is this a stupid question? 'Why can't Chancellors predict the obvious backlash and political grief that will come from the budget measures they make?' It's as if there is nobody with a functional political antenna at the Treasury. Hammond, Ozzy, Gordo, Darling - they all suffered this. Que passa?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I have been away for two days so did not get a chance to talk on the budget.

    I fully support Hammond's NIC increase on the self-employed. The crocodile tears doesn't move me.

    They still pay less than their share in NIC. Therefore, their NHS benefits should be proportionately less too !
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    How self-employed backlash could decimate the Tory majority at a future election

    In St Ives, a constituency won by the Conservatives from the Lib Dems in 2015, some 38.3 per cent are self-employed.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/09/self-employed-backlash-could-decimate-tory-majority-future-election/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_fb

    Perhaps reading your own link would be the logical thing to do? It is nonsense: "decimate" in the headline, 11 tory seats at risk in the actual text. "Decimate" depends on the current tory maj being less than 11. So what sort of "future election" are we talking about? If by-election, they generally happen in ones or at most twos, not elevens. If general election, the map is going to turn blue on current trends, and a few traditionally lib seats going the wrong way doesn't matter.

    And I have no idea why St Ives is so heavily self-employed (fishing? freelance bed n breakfast cleaning?) but I live within walking distance of Cornwall and I can tell you it is poor - really poor. The NI changes as I understand it (from someone on here) are in favour of those on up to £16,500 p.a. If you apply that filter to St Ives, I am guessing you are left with a number of voters which would fit into one taxi.
    Well of course I read the article in the link.
    If you'd read it you would notice that the eleven seats they mention all had majorities under 10% (some well under) and self employed percentages above 20% (some well over). They were just showing the constituencies that made the point most graphically.
    Tories used to be in favour of small businesses calling them the 'engine' of the economy, the raising of NI will slow that engine and help convince voters that the Tories are no longer the party of small businesses.
    What we need is a figure, not just for self-employed, but for self-employed and over/under £16500 turnover. I think people have a false mental picture of the standard self-employed person as a potential next bill gates. Whereas actually if you do seasonal freelance bnb cleaning you have to be self-employed.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    surbiton said:

    I have been away for two days so did not get a chance to talk on the budget.

    I fully support Hammond's NIC increase on the self-employed. The crocodile tears doesn't move me.

    They still pay less than their share in NIC. Therefore, their NHS benefits should be proportionately less too !

    I take it you have a hard line on health tourism? :p
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167

    Ishmael_Z said:

    How self-employed backlash could decimate the Tory majority at a future election

    In St Ives, a constituency won by the Conservatives from the Lib Dems in 2015, some 38.3 per cent are self-employed.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/09/self-employed-backlash-could-decimate-tory-majority-future-election/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_fb

    Perhaps reading your own link would be the logical thing to do? It is nonsense: "decimate" in the headline, 11 tory seats at risk in the actual text. "Decimate" depends on the current tory maj being less than 11. So what sort of "future election" are we talking about? If by-election, they generally happen in ones or at most twos, not elevens. If general election, the map is going to turn blue on current trends, and a few traditionally lib seats going the wrong way doesn't matter.

    And I have no idea why St Ives is so heavily self-employed (fishing? freelance bed n breakfast cleaning?) but I live within walking distance of Cornwall and I can tell you it is poor - really poor. The NI changes as I understand it (from someone on here) are in favour of those on up to £16,500 p.a. If you apply that filter to St Ives, I am guessing you are left with a number of voters which would fit into one taxi.
    Well of course I read the article in the link.
    If you'd read it you would notice that the eleven seats they mention all had majorities under 10% (some well under) and self employed percentages above 20% (some well over). They were just showing the constituencies that made the point most graphically.
    Tories used to be in favour of small businesses calling them the 'engine' of the economy, the raising of NI will slow that engine and help convince voters that the Tories are no longer the party of small businesses.
    No longer the party of giving preferential treatment on NI to the self employed, no
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Ever wonder why there is such a drive towards automation when employers are punished time and again for offering employment?

    If I purchase a machine to do a job then I can reclaim any VAT that was spent on purchasing it, so essentially only owe VAT on marginal profit. There are no further major on-going taxes I can think of.

    If I hire a person to do the same job then I owe: wages, employers National Insurance, pension contributions, essentially VAT on the wages too, on top of potentially six months of sick pay, etc, etc, etc

    Even if a person is economically more efficient than a machine the tax system penalises employment so much what incentive is there to not go for a machine if possible?

    Of course companies should go whichever route is most cost effective for them. But if they are going to employ workers then they take on responsibility for them - particularly if as is the case they are intent on importing their workforce from overseas. If that is the case then they should be held responsible for the needs of those employees for as long as they remain in the country. Of course this is a slightly different issue to NI but the basic principle remains. If companies will not volunteer corporate responsibility they should be made to through the tax system.
    Most employees don't come from overseas. I've been an employer for over a decade and have never hired anyone direct from overseas. I have however hired people straight from the dole - relieving the taxpayer from having to pay for them - and getting penalised by taxes on top of taxes for having done so.

    I have always thought that the security and self-respect from having a job was a good thing.

    I don't understand why an employer offering struggling people jobs is something that should be penalised and discouraged through the tax system.
    My brother is self employed currently, I hear his business is doing reasonably well - and actually I think he has it in NI/tax terms quite 'cushty'.

    Should he ever wish to hire someone however - well that is truly where all the extra crippling costs come in as you say. The step change from Self employed to employer is far far too high.
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Is there no longer an edit facility ? I'm using chrome on the iPad and there's no drop down arrow to the top right of the comment as there used to be.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Six Nations: just backed Ireland to beat Wales by 10 points or more at 3.25 (Ladbrokes).

    Ireland have looked more impressive so far. They're favourites to win at 1.61, and I think they stand a pretty good chance, maybe evens, of doing so by a double digit margin.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Notme, using Chrome on a desktop, and that still exists for me.
  • Options
    Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    edited March 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    Completely O/T but anyone who was brave and bought BT shares in the middle of their dodgy Italians scandal is laughing this morning as Open Reach break out sends price up.

    Serious question: is this good for our IT infrastructure in the long term? It contrasts with America where networks are wholly owned by whoever built them and increasingly the infra firms offer their own content. Basically the opposite of what we have here. The budget conjured up £15 million for a 5G hub (whatever that is); meanwhile, the Americans are going ahead with 5G trials in 11 cities.
    5G is wireless, while OpenReach (vs US cable) is wired.

    Samsung is doing a 5G trial in the UK, although I'm buggered if I can remember where. If you Google you can probably find it.

    The big difference between the US wired networks and ours is simply that in the US they are much happier to string cables up in the air and between houses. If you get cable in the UK, they have to dig a trench to your home. In the US, it'll usually go along cables above your head. Not having to dig up roads makes roll outs a lot cheaper.
    5G is wireless but depends on a cabled infrastructure. But the point was more about economics: because the Americans tolerate market distortions and local monopolies (not to mention protectionism and hidden subsidies) their companies are more able to invest in new technology and expand overseas.

    So is it better to break up BT and enable more competition but at a smaller scale, or let it grow and invest? Do we want cheaper low-speed networks now or high-speed networks soon?
    In the old days, companies like BT and AT&T would do their own research, have their own labs, and make their own equipment.

    That's not the case anymore. Nowadays all the hard work is done by the equipment vendors, particularly Ericsson, Huaewei, Nokia, ZTE and Cisco.

    Whether BT is broken up or not makes very little difference to their ability to invest: whether you buy one DSLAM/CMTS or 10,000 doesn't change the price that much. (Hence the fact that some villages have grouped together and bought their own gigabit ethernet connections.)

    As a project leader for one of those villages, and having laid 50km of fibre optic cables to connect every part of our very rural, Yorkshire Dales parish with Gigabit, symmetrical broadband I feel qualified to explain the parlous state of our fibre infrastructure in two word: Ed and Vaizey
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    notme said:

    Is there no longer an edit facility ? I'm using chrome on the iPad and there's no drop down arrow to the top right of the comment as there used to be.

    It does expire after a few minutes, after which it is no longer accessible.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,020

    Ever wonder why there is such a drive towards automation when employers are punished time and again for offering employment?

    If I purchase a machine to do a job then I can reclaim any VAT that was spent on purchasing it, so essentially only owe VAT on marginal profit. There are no further major on-going taxes I can think of.

    If I hire a person to do the same job then I owe: wages, employers National Insurance, pension contributions, essentially VAT on the wages too, on top of potentially six months of sick pay, etc, etc, etc

    Even if a person is economically more efficient than a machine the tax system penalises employment so much what incentive is there to not go for a machine if possible?

    Of course companies should go whichever route is most cost effective for them. But if they are going to employ workers then they take on responsibility for them - particularly if as is the case they are intent on importing their workforce from overseas. If that is the case then they should be held responsible for the needs of those employees for as long as they remain in the country. Of course this is a slightly different issue to NI but the basic principle remains. If companies will not volunteer corporate responsibility they should be made to through the tax system.
    Most employees don't come from overseas. I've been an employer for over a decade and have never hired anyone direct from overseas. I have however hired people straight from the dole - relieving the taxpayer from having to pay for them - and getting penalised by taxes on top of taxes for having done so.

    I have always thought that the security and self-respect from having a job was a good thing.

    I don't understand why an employer offering struggling people jobs is something that should be penalised and discouraged through the tax system.
    According to the ONS in November last year 95% of the growth in employment in the previous year had been filled by workers not born in Britain. Now I don't have a problem with that as long as the employers take full responsibility for the welfare costs of those workers not only as long as they are emptying them but until they either leave the country or get another job rather than expecting the taxpayer to do so.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited March 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Ever wonder why there is such a drive towards automation when employers are punished time and again for offering employment?

    If I purchase a machine to do a job then I can reclaim any VAT that was spent on purchasing it, so essentially only owe VAT on marginal profit. There are no further major on-going taxes I can think of.

    If I hire a person to do the same job then I owe: wages, employers National Insurance, pension contributions, essentially VAT on the wages too, on top of potentially six months of sick pay, etc, etc, etc

    Even if a person is economically more efficient than a machine the tax system penalises employment so much what incentive is there to not go for a machine if possible?

    Of course companies should go whichever route is most cost effective for them. But if they are going to employ workers then they take on responsibility for them - particularly if as is the case they are intent on importing their workforce from overseas. If that is the case then they should be held responsible for the needs of those employees for as long as they remain in the country. Of course this is a slightly different issue to NI but the basic principle remains. If companies will not volunteer corporate responsibility they should be made to through the tax system.
    Most employees don't come from overseas. I've been an employer for over a decade and have never hired anyone direct from overseas. I have however hired people straight from the dole - relieving the taxpayer from having to pay for them - and getting penalised by taxes on top of taxes for having done so.

    I have always thought that the security and self-respect from having a job was a good thing.

    I don't understand why an employer offering struggling people jobs is something that should be penalised and discouraged through the tax system.
    My brother is self employed currently, I hear his business is doing reasonably well - and actually I think he has it in NI/tax terms quite 'cushty'.

    Should he ever wish to hire someone however - well that is truly where all the extra crippling costs come in as you say. The step change from Self employed to employer is far far too high.
    Indeed it seems some people seem to think that employers have a magic money tree of their own for which ever higher burdens can be placed on them. The reality is that most employers are small business people for which every additional burden is a struggle and ones that can really discourage creating [or keeping] jobs - if not kill the business altogether if the burdens become too much.
  • Options
    Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davis also proposing Scotland can take more EU migrants than the rest of the UK as part of a Brexit deal

    That'll look nice on a photoshopped scroll on a tabloid front page.
    I am sure Scots will be grateful for all the extra Eastern European workers
    For reasons which remain a mystery Scotland currently attracts substantially fewer EU migrants than the rest of the U.K......
    Difficulties with the language? :D
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    I have been away for two days so did not get a chance to talk on the budget.

    I fully support Hammond's NIC increase on the self-employed. The crocodile tears doesn't move me.

    They still pay less than their share in NIC. Therefore, their NHS benefits should be proportionately less too !

    I take it you have a hard line on health tourism? :p
    I do except on an emergency. I have nothing against rich Chinese, Russians coming to private hospitals just like I have no problem with them spending money at Harrods.........
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    notme said:

    Is there no longer an edit facility ? I'm using chrome on the iPad and there's no drop down arrow to the top right of the comment as there used to be.

    Just tested and edited my post above, worked fine. On Firefox though.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,429

    Pulpstar said:

    Ever wonder why there is such a drive towards automation when employers are punished time and again for offering employment?

    If I purchase a machine to do a job then I can reclaim any VAT that was spent on purchasing it, so essentially only owe VAT on marginal profit. There are no further major on-going taxes I can think of.

    If I hire a person to do the same job then I owe: wages, employers National Insurance, pension contributions, essentially VAT on the wages too, on top of potentially six months of sick pay, etc, etc, etc

    Even if a person is economically more efficient than a machine the tax system penalises employment so much what incentive is there to not go for a machine if possible?

    Of course companies should go whichever route is most cost effective for them. But if they are going to employ workers then they take on responsibility for them - particularly if as is the case they are intent on importing their workforce from overseas. If that is the case then they should be held responsible for the needs of those employees for as long as they remain in the country. Of course this is a slightly different issue to NI but the basic principle remains. If companies will not volunteer corporate responsibility they should be made to through the tax system.
    Most employees don't come from overseas. I've been an employer for over a decade and have never hired anyone direct from overseas. I have however hired people straight from the dole - relieving the taxpayer from having to pay for them - and getting penalised by taxes on top of taxes for having done so.

    I have always thought that the security and self-respect from having a job was a good thing.

    I don't understand why an employer offering struggling people jobs is something that should be penalised and discouraged through the tax system.
    My brother is self employed currently, I hear his business is doing reasonably well - and actually I think he has it in NI/tax terms quite 'cushty'.

    Should he ever wish to hire someone however - well that is truly where all the extra crippling costs come in as you say. The step change from Self employed to employer is far far too high.
    Indeed it seems some people seem to think that employers have a magic money tree of their own for which ever higher burdens can be placed on them. The reality is that most employers are small business people for which every additional burden is a struggle and ones that can really discourage creating [or keeping] jobs - if not kill the business altogether if the burdens become too much.
    Tax the robots, as Bill Gates is proposing.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    I note this is an issue that isn't splitting left/right...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Pulpstar said:

    I note this is an issue that isn't splitting left/right...

    or remain/leave.. which is novel!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. 1000, does appear the worm has turned against Wilders.

    On the other hand, even if his party is the largest, he won't lead the country.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davis also proposing Scotland can take more EU migrants than the rest of the UK as part of a Brexit deal

    That'll look nice on a photoshopped scroll on a tabloid front page.
    I am sure Scots will be grateful for all the extra Eastern European workers
    For reasons which remain a mystery Scotland currently attracts substantially fewer EU migrants than the rest of the U.K......
    It's bloody cold !
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Most employees don't come from overseas. I've been an employer for over a decade and have never hired anyone direct from overseas. I have however hired people straight from the dole - relieving the taxpayer from having to pay for them - and getting penalised by taxes on top of taxes for having done so.

    I have always thought that the security and self-respect from having a job was a good thing.

    I don't understand why an employer offering struggling people jobs is something that should be penalised and discouraged through the tax system.

    According to the ONS in November last year 95% of the growth in employment in the previous year had been filled by workers not born in Britain. Now I don't have a problem with that as long as the employers take full responsibility for the welfare costs of those workers not only as long as they are emptying them but until they either leave the country or get another job rather than expecting the taxpayer to do so.
    Not sure where you're getting those stats from.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/feb2017#employment-by-nationality-and-country-of-birth-not-seasonally-adjusted

    According to the ONS in Feb 17 there are 28.44 million UK nationals employed versus 3.48 million non-UK nationals. Non-UK nationals make up 10.9% of those employed, meaning that UK nationals make up 89.1% of those employed.

    If you want to do a tax for hiring non-UK nationals then that is not Employers NI or any of the other myriad of burdens the state places upon employers.
  • Options
    wasdwasd Posts: 276


    Indeed it seems some people seem to think that employers have a magic money tree of their own for which ever higher burdens can be placed on them. The reality is that most employers are small business people for which every additional burden is a struggle and ones that can really discourage creating [or keeping] jobs - if not kill the business altogether if the burdens become too much.

    Tax the robots, as Bill Gates is proposing.
    Can you come up with a definition of robot that doesn't also cover my washing machine?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    wasd said:


    Indeed it seems some people seem to think that employers have a magic money tree of their own for which ever higher burdens can be placed on them. The reality is that most employers are small business people for which every additional burden is a struggle and ones that can really discourage creating [or keeping] jobs - if not kill the business altogether if the burdens become too much.

    Tax the robots, as Bill Gates is proposing.
    Can you come up with a definition of robot that doesn't also cover my washing machine?
    Sure, a "a robot is a device that does work that isn't wasd's washing machine".

    Simples.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited March 2017
    Am I missing something ?

    Why aren't the VVD favourites ?

    Back
    VVD 2.24 £18.00 £22.30
    £18.00

    Lay
    PVV1.94 £20.00 £18.76
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    surbiton said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Davis also proposing Scotland can take more EU migrants than the rest of the UK as part of a Brexit deal

    That'll look nice on a photoshopped scroll on a tabloid front page.
    I am sure Scots will be grateful for all the extra Eastern European workers
    For reasons which remain a mystery Scotland currently attracts substantially fewer EU migrants than the rest of the U.K......
    It's bloody cold !
    Deep fried mars bars not universally popular as a food type?
  • Options
    wasdwasd Posts: 276
    rcs1000 said:

    wasd said:


    Indeed it seems some people seem to think that employers have a magic money tree of their own for which ever higher burdens can be placed on them. The reality is that most employers are small business people for which every additional burden is a struggle and ones that can really discourage creating [or keeping] jobs - if not kill the business altogether if the burdens become too much.

    Tax the robots, as Bill Gates is proposing.
    Can you come up with a definition of robot that doesn't also cover my washing machine?
    Sure, a "a robot is a device that does work that isn't wasd's washing machine".

    Simples.
    Well that was simpler than I expected.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    surbiton said:

    I have been away for two days so did not get a chance to talk on the budget.

    I fully support Hammond's NIC increase on the self-employed. The crocodile tears doesn't move me.

    They still pay less than their share in NIC. Therefore, their NHS benefits should be proportionately less too !

    Quite. Getting sick of rich people squealing when they have to give up a few pennies, while enthusiastically cheering people on benefits getting their incomes slashed.

    Hopefully "Red Phil" sticks to his guns on this one.
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    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Morning all.

    The 25% Labour floor of vote share is looking rather fragile, Jeremy needs another relaunch.

    Its an interesting question what the floor is. Nor sure how much support is actually the die hard loony left, but I think 19% might be rock bottom. (of course at 25% it might in reality only be 22%)
    Didn't Gordon Brown poll at 19% once?
    Not according to http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010
    Thanks for the link.
    Looks like Labour polled at 18% once with Mori at end of may 2009?
    Yup, as noted.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    wasd said:

    rcs1000 said:

    wasd said:


    Indeed it seems some people seem to think that employers have a magic money tree of their own for which ever higher burdens can be placed on them. The reality is that most employers are small business people for which every additional burden is a struggle and ones that can really discourage creating [or keeping] jobs - if not kill the business altogether if the burdens become too much.

    Tax the robots, as Bill Gates is proposing.
    Can you come up with a definition of robot that doesn't also cover my washing machine?
    Sure, a "a robot is a device that does work that isn't wasd's washing machine".

    Simples.
    Well that was simpler than I expected.
    That's why he gets paid the big $$$.
  • Options
    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    PClipp said:

    IanB2 said:

    How self-employed backlash could decimate the Tory majority at a future election

    In St Ives, a constituency won by the Conservatives from the Lib Dems in 2015, some 38.3 per cent are self-employed.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/09/self-employed-backlash-could-decimate-tory-majority-future-election/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_fb

    "Could...", "if....", and that's just in the first paragraph. And a distinct lack of quotes from aggrieved builders, cabbies, internet traders et al. about to man the barricades?
    I don`t think it is the amount of money involved that will harm the Conservative cause. It is the fact that they have shown, once again, that they cannot be trusted. Moreover, they are a gang of unprincipled liars and cheats.

    Would you play cards with a Conservative?
    I'd bet on them to win, mind.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,727
    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    How self-employed backlash could decimate the Tory majority at a future election

    In St Ives, a constituency won by the Conservatives from the Lib Dems in 2015, some 38.3 per cent are self-employed.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/09/self-employed-backlash-could-decimate-tory-majority-future-election/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_fb

    Perhaps reading your own link would be the logical thing to do? It is nonsense: "decimate" in the headline, 11 tory seats at risk in the actual text. "Decimate" depends on the current tory maj being less than 11. So what sort of "future election" are we talking about? If by-election, they generally happen in ones or at most twos, not elevens. If general election, the map is going to turn blue on current trends, and a few traditionally lib seats going the wrong way doesn't matter.

    And I have no idea why St Ives is so heavily self-employed (fishing? freelance bed n breakfast cleaning?) but I live within walking distance of Cornwall and I can tell you it is poor - really poor. The NI changes as I understand it (from someone on here) are in favour of those on up to £16,500 p.a. If you apply that filter to St Ives, I am guessing you are left with a number of voters which would fit into one taxi.
    Well of course I read the article in the link.
    If you'd read it you would notice that the eleven seats they mention all had majorities under 10% (some well under) and self employed percentages above 20% (some well over). They were just showing the constituencies that made the point most graphically.
    Tories used to be in favour of small businesses calling them the 'engine' of the economy, the raising of NI will slow that engine and help convince voters that the Tories are no longer the party of small businesses.
    No longer the party of giving preferential treatment on NI to the self employed, no
    "We need to be a country that celebrates enterprise and backs risk takers," Tory PM (Jan 2014)
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Pulpstar said:

    Am I missing something ?

    Why aren't the VVD favourites ?

    Back
    VVD 2.24 £18.00 £22.30
    £18.00

    Lay
    PVV1.94 £20.00 £18.76

    Good spot.

    The only note of caution I would add is that the PVV has tended to outperform its poll ratings in actual elections, unlike the FN.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    wasd said:


    Indeed it seems some people seem to think that employers have a magic money tree of their own for which ever higher burdens can be placed on them. The reality is that most employers are small business people for which every additional burden is a struggle and ones that can really discourage creating [or keeping] jobs - if not kill the business altogether if the burdens become too much.

    Tax the robots, as Bill Gates is proposing.
    Can you come up with a definition of robot that doesn't also cover my washing machine?
    "Your plastic pal who's fun to be with"?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    tlg86 said:

    You couldn't make it up:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39225847

    One man has been arrested. The 36-year-old suspect from the former Yugoslavia suffers from psychological problems, Duesseldorf police said.

    Is he called Dave perchance?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited March 2017
    I noted the German authorities spin on the axe attacker last night with the comment of former Yugoslavia, a country that hasn't existed for 20 years...And now it has been revealed the individual is from Kosovo. I wonder why they didn't just mention that in the first place! (rhetorical question)
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Am I missing something ?

    Why aren't the VVD favourites ?

    Back
    VVD 2.24 £18.00 £22.30
    £18.00

    Lay
    PVV1.94 £20.00 £18.76

    Good spot.

    The only note of caution I would add is that the PVV has tended to outperform its poll ratings in actual elections, unlike the FN.
    Ok I'll keep it to £36.76 liability :>
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,924

    YouGov's before the equivalent of this year's English local elections:

    13/03/09
    Con 41
    Lab 31
    LibD 17
    Oth 10

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010

    08/03/13
    Lab 41
    Con 31
    LibD 11
    UKIP 10

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention

    If on local election night these two results are declared:

    Derbyshire
    CON gain from LAB

    Nottinghamshire
    CON gain from LAB

    Can Corbyn survive ?
    According to Harry H and Britain Elects the Tory gain in Derbyshire was from UKIP not Labour. Not that that really alters your point!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    That Tim Pool guy who went to Sweden main criticism was of the authorities and the media. On additional to the police making false statements if something he had in camera, the swedish state tv translated somethings he never said and I think the most interesting was he reported the case of where a non-white criminals face was pixelated and the pixels changed to white under the guise of not wanting to encourage racism.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    I have been away for two days so did not get a chance to talk on the budget.

    I fully support Hammond's NIC increase on the self-employed. The crocodile tears doesn't move me.

    They still pay less than their share in NIC. Therefore, their NHS benefits should be proportionately less too !

    Quite. Getting sick of rich people squealing when they have to give up a few pennies, while enthusiastically cheering people on benefits getting their incomes slashed.

    Hopefully "Red Phil" sticks to his guns on this one.
    Why isn't Labour supporting this ? With the added promise of "improving" on this ?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Am I missing something ?

    Why aren't the VVD favourites ?

    Back
    VVD 2.24 £18.00 £22.30
    £18.00

    Lay
    PVV1.94 £20.00 £18.76

    Good spot.

    The only note of caution I would add is that the PVV has tended to outperform its poll ratings in actual elections, unlike the FN.
    Ok I'll keep it to £36.76 liability :>
    The speed of the PVV decline has been staggering. On some polls they're level with D66, who are the equivalent of the LibDems in the Netherlands.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    That Tim Pool guy who went to Sweden main criticism was of the authorities and the media. On additional to the police making false statements if something he had in camera, the swedish state tv translated somethings he never said and I think the most interesting was he reported the case of where a non-white criminals face was pixelated and the pixels changed to white under the guise of not wanting to encourage racism.

    That last bit can't be true, surely?
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    surbiton said:

    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    I have been away for two days so did not get a chance to talk on the budget.

    I fully support Hammond's NIC increase on the self-employed. The crocodile tears doesn't move me.

    They still pay less than their share in NIC. Therefore, their NHS benefits should be proportionately less too !

    Quite. Getting sick of rich people squealing when they have to give up a few pennies, while enthusiastically cheering people on benefits getting their incomes slashed.

    Hopefully "Red Phil" sticks to his guns on this one.
    Why isn't Labour supporting this ? With the added promise of "improving" on this ?
    Because McDonnell is a complete moron.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,020

    Most employees don't come from overseas. I've been an employer for over a decade and have never hired anyone direct from overseas. I have however hired people straight from the dole - relieving the taxpayer from having to pay for them - and getting penalised by taxes on top of taxes for having done so.

    I have always thought that the security and self-respect from having a job was a good thing.

    I don't understand why an employer offering struggling people jobs is something that should be penalised and discouraged through the tax system.

    According to the ONS in November last year 95% of the growth in employment in the previous year had been filled by workers not born in Britain. Now I don't have a problem with that as long as the employers take full responsibility for the welfare costs of those workers not only as long as they are emptying them but until they either leave the country or get another job rather than expecting the taxpayer to do so.
    Not sure where you're getting those stats from.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/feb2017#employment-by-nationality-and-country-of-birth-not-seasonally-adjusted

    According to the ONS in Feb 17 there are 28.44 million UK nationals employed versus 3.48 million non-UK nationals. Non-UK nationals make up 10.9% of those employed, meaning that UK nationals make up 89.1% of those employed.

    If you want to do a tax for hiring non-UK nationals then that is not Employers NI or any of the other myriad of burdens the state places upon employers.
    If you actually bother to read what I wrote it said the 95% was the growth in jobs not the existing jobs.

    But the basic principle on employees vs self employed should still apply. If as a company you wish to use a self employed person rather than an employee then you should pay the same costs in each case. Using contractors is perfectly valid when being done because of the short term nature of the work where you don't want the long term costs of an additional employee. But on a day to day basis there should not be a tax saving to a company because they use a contractor rather than an employee.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Floater said:

    tlg86 said:

    You couldn't make it up:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39225847

    One man has been arrested. The 36-year-old suspect from the former Yugoslavia suffers from psychological problems, Duesseldorf police said.

    Is he called Dave perchance?
    I expect the facts will emerge soon enough, ‘former Yugoslav’ looks ripe for amendment...
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,227
    IanB2 said:

    I am not convinced that the public outcry at the self employed moving towards paying the same NI as everyone else will be as strong as the media thinks. Particularly as most people know that many of the self employed are prone to take a chunk of their earnings in cash free of any tax, let alone NI.


    Nor am I. Indeed, I'm really annoyed at the endless whinging that follows every Budget. We have a deficit. We have lots of demands on the public purse, often from the very same people who object to paying anything extra at all.

    I wish governments had the balls to face down these people: it was pathetic that Osborne backed down in the face of lots of extremely rich people moaning that they would not be charitable if there wasn't a tax advantage for them. Now we have some of the self-employed complaining about contributing to the public purse on the same basis as the rest of us on PAYE. Where was their sympathy when higher rate taxpayers had their personal allowance removed or when those who saved for their pension got screwed over by the government?

    FFS!

    The reality is that with a big deficit and endless - and possibly over-inflated and unrealistic - expectations of the public sector - we are all going to have to pay more.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    £1118 to lay the PVV at 1.95 if any heavy hitting lurkers have the bollocks :)
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited March 2017
    RobD said:

    That Tim Pool guy who went to Sweden main criticism was of the authorities and the media. On additional to the police making false statements if something he had in camera, the swedish state tv translated somethings he never said and I think the most interesting was he reported the case of where a non-white criminals face was pixelated and the pixels changed to white under the guise of not wanting to encourage racism.

    That last bit can't be true, surely?
    That was his claim. He certainly didn't come across as willing to spray around accusations ala trump. And having seen his video he was pretty even handed about the whole situation. I think the best interview he had was with a Afghan born swedish cop.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068

    Most employees don't come from overseas. I've been an employer for over a decade and have never hired anyone direct from overseas. I have however hired people straight from the dole - relieving the taxpayer from having to pay for them - and getting penalised by taxes on top of taxes for having done so.

    I have always thought that the security and self-respect from having a job was a good thing.

    I don't understand why an employer offering struggling people jobs is something that should be penalised and discouraged through the tax system.

    According to the ONS in November last year 95% of the growth in employment in the previous year had been filled by workers not born in Britain. Now I don't have a problem with that as long as the employers take full responsibility for the welfare costs of those workers not only as long as they are emptying them but until they either leave the country or get another job rather than expecting the taxpayer to do so.
    Not sure where you're getting those stats from.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/feb2017#employment-by-nationality-and-country-of-birth-not-seasonally-adjusted

    According to the ONS in Feb 17 there are 28.44 million UK nationals employed versus 3.48 million non-UK nationals. Non-UK nationals make up 10.9% of those employed, meaning that UK nationals make up 89.1% of those employed.

    If you want to do a tax for hiring non-UK nationals then that is not Employers NI or any of the other myriad of burdens the state places upon employers.
    If you actually bother to read what I wrote it said the 95% was the growth in jobs not the existing jobs.

    But the basic principle on employees vs self employed should still apply. If as a company you wish to use a self employed person rather than an employee then you should pay the same costs in each case. Using contractors is perfectly valid when being done because of the short term nature of the work where you don't want the long term costs of an additional employee. But on a day to day basis there should not be a tax saving to a company because they use a contractor rather than an employee.
    I would get rid of employer's national insurance contributions altogether. We want to encourage job creation, not discourage it.
This discussion has been closed.