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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Mr. 1000, is that Wilders' party? Why the rapid decline?
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    Staggering how many experts there suddenly are on National Insurance for the self-employed. As I said yesterday my bull's feet are costing me more in vet fees.

    As someone who has had an interest in a public house I welcome the £1k off the business rates. This will be good for the most rural pubs. BUT, will go nowhere towards meeting the fundamental problems with the rural pub sector. Personally I think the alcohol taxes should be reduced/removed for drink sold over the bar in these isolated public houses - what do people think ?
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    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/839567137320624128
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,343

    Staggering how many experts there suddenly are on National Insurance for the self-employed. As I said yesterday my bull's feet are costing me more in vet fees.

    As someone who has had an interest in a public house I welcome the £1k off the business rates. This will be good for the most rural pubs. BUT, will go nowhere towards meeting the fundamental problems with the rural pub sector. Personally I think the alcohol taxes should be reduced/removed for drink sold over the bar in these isolated public houses - what do people think ?

    Hang in there until we get driverless cars. Then things will be so much better.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/839567137320624128
    Any chance of a list in order of majority?
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:

    malcolmg said:

    The former First Minister, who led the nationalists between 1990-2000 and 2004-2014, insisted he would “never say never” to a third spell.

    With Nicola Sturgeon potentially about to call a second independence referendum, despite little movement in the polls since 2014, pundits are already speculating about who could replace her if her gambit fails and she steps down.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15142866.Alex_Salmond_hints_that_he_could_return_to_lead_the_SNP_for_a_third_time/

    The conclusion is that there is no way out of a second referendum.
    So the end of Sturgeon and Salmond III......
    The end of May's precious, precious union.
    Not what the polls say.....if Sturgeon was as confident as you she'd have called it already.....
    Luckily she knows more about Scotland than you, Channel Islands view does not cut the mustard. It is coming and it will not be as easy for the dictators the next time.
    So nailed on then......
    The assumptions many PB'ers make about the polls are foolish. Fundamentally the position for the nats is very strong now. They have demographics on their side every year that goes by eg more young, pro independence pro EU voters, fewer old, pro UK, pro Brexit voters. You can't assume anything about how the campaign is going to go.
    It is disruptive, but so is leaving the EU, and the english voted for the latter.

    hmmm

    what happens if the demographics work the same as everywhere else ie the older you get the less radical you become ? So all those young active people start to worry more about the security of their pensions and social care and gradually shift their views.

    I always cite the example of the October 1974 general election. The Tories came third among 18-24 year olds. Move forward 41 years, this age cohort voted heavily Conservative and UKIP.
    same with that old mantra of those who grew up in the Thatcher years, theyve all drifted rightwards

    Im predicting SO will be a conservative councillor by 2020 :-)
    Did the 70s electorate drift right or did reality drift left? Look at the radical positions of the 60s and 70s and they are orthodox now. If the electorate voted for a Conservative government that wanted to reinstate lower pay for women, for instance, then we'd know people had drifted right.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    edited March 2017

    The bit posters appear to be missing from yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/839505906891116544

    Have people already forgotten the outrage that followed the 2012 budget (huge) and the effect it had on the 2015 election (undetectable)?
    It's arguable that the 2012 omnishambles budget was a big cause of Brexit. It lead to a huge surge in UKIP support which scares the Cons into promising an EU referendum in their 2015 manifesto. The rest is history...
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    RobD said:

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/839567137320624128
    Any chance of a list in order of majority?
    I have asked.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985



    Did the 70s electorate drift right or did reality drift left? Look at the radical positions of the 60s and 70s and they are orthodox now. If the electorate voted for a Conservative government that wanted to reinstate lower pay for women, for instance, then we'd know people had drifted right.

    Legislating for lower pay for women is right wing?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/839567137320624128
    To be clear, I don't see this making very much difference to the polling. I can't see many self-employed switching to Labour as a result of this change. Perhaps UKIP will pick up some of the more crazed.

    We need to watch closely whether the executive can face down the backbenches. It will tell us a lot about how the rest of this Parliament will play out.
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    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    edited March 2017
    .
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/839567137320624128
    To be clear, I don't see this making very much difference to the polling. I can't see many self-employed switching to Labour as a result of this change. Perhaps UKIP will pick up some of the more crazed.

    We need to watch closely whether the executive can face down the backbenches. It will tell us a lot about how the rest of this Parliament will play out.
    Although the 2012 event did move the polls significantly, so there may be some movement.
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    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/839567137320624128
    To be clear, I don't see this making very much difference to the polling. I can't see many self-employed switching to Labour as a result of this change. Perhaps UKIP will pick up some of the more crazed.

    We need to watch closely whether the executive can face down the backbenches. It will tell us a lot about how the rest of this Parliament will play out.
    I agree. It might be also worth watching Mrs May's ratings.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Mr. Cumbria, happened to see the duty on alcohol went up in the Budget. Easier politically to raise than lower it.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    RobD said:



    Did the 70s electorate drift right or did reality drift left? Look at the radical positions of the 60s and 70s and they are orthodox now. If the electorate voted for a Conservative government that wanted to reinstate lower pay for women, for instance, then we'd know people had drifted right.

    Legislating for lower pay for women is right wing?
    No but it used to be. That's the point. The mainstream has moved to the left, rather than older voters moving to the right.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    John McD skewered by Nick Robinson on R4. Managed to position Lab as the party against management consultants (= modern, non 1970s occupation). Slightly pulled it back at the end.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    The biggest problem with the attack on the self-employed is not the amounts, but the attitude.

    Here we are, Brexit Britain, exciting and enterprising - ready to take on the world. And the first thing the new chancellor does is kick enterprising people in the teeth. Huh?

    If businesses are abusing the self employment system, then target those employers. If a business employs the bulk of their workers as "self-employed", then they probably are not and should be treated as employees. The self-employed working for a business should be for occasional use e.g. skills not available within the company or seasonal requirements; not for the majority of workers.

    Don't penalise people who are prepared to take a risk and create new jobs for our country.

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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    TOPPING said:

    John McD skewered by Nick Robinson on R4. Managed to position Lab as the party against management consultants (= modern, non 1970s occupation). Slightly pulled it back at the end.

    To be fair, a lot of conservative business people would vote for a party that will outlaw management consultants, even if led by Jeremy Corbyn.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Mr. Cumbria, happened to see the duty on alcohol went up in the Budget. Easier politically to raise than lower it.

    Osborne managed to cut it three years running!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    RobD said:



    Did the 70s electorate drift right or did reality drift left? Look at the radical positions of the 60s and 70s and they are orthodox now. If the electorate voted for a Conservative government that wanted to reinstate lower pay for women, for instance, then we'd know people had drifted right.

    Legislating for lower pay for women is right wing?
    No but it used to be. That's the point. The mainstream has moved to the left, rather than older voters moving to the right.
    Has any government actively legislated for lower pay for women?
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    With some journalists.

    But millions on PAYE are LOLing at the outrage of others.

    'Take it from them and give it to me' always gets support.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783

    RobD said:



    Did the 70s electorate drift right or did reality drift left? Look at the radical positions of the 60s and 70s and they are orthodox now. If the electorate voted for a Conservative government that wanted to reinstate lower pay for women, for instance, then we'd know people had drifted right.

    Legislating for lower pay for women is right wing?
    No but it used to be. That's the point. The mainstream has moved to the left, rather than older voters moving to the right.
    You mean like in nationalising industry?
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    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107


    The biggest problem with the attack on the self-employed is not the amounts, but the attitude.

    Here we are, Brexit Britain, exciting and enterprising - ready to take on the world. And the first thing the new chancellor does is kick enterprising people in the teeth. Huh?

    If businesses are abusing the self employment system, then target those employers. If a business employs the bulk of their workers as "self-employed", then they probably are not and should be treated as employees. The self-employed working for a business should be for occasional use e.g. skills not available within the company or seasonal requirements; not for the majority of workers.

    Don't penalise people who are prepared to take a risk and create new jobs for our country.

    Well put, as I said earlier Mrs T saw the benefit of White Van Man and vice versa, the attitude displayed by Hammond will lead to more cash jobs/tax dodging.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited March 2017

    twitter.com/election_data/status/839564392635240454

    I see LD territory!
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    RobD said:

    RobD said:



    Did the 70s electorate drift right or did reality drift left? Look at the radical positions of the 60s and 70s and they are orthodox now. If the electorate voted for a Conservative government that wanted to reinstate lower pay for women, for instance, then we'd know people had drifted right.

    Legislating for lower pay for women is right wing?
    No but it used to be. That's the point. The mainstream has moved to the left, rather than older voters moving to the right.
    Has any government actively legislated for lower pay for women?
    Are you deliberately missing the point, which was about the canard (imo) that voters move to the right as they get older? Instead, issues that used to be radical and left-wing, like equal pay for women, are now orthodox and conservative. It is the issues that have moved, not the voters.
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    One day the electorate will rate Osborne as invaluable as Black Rock do. Mark my words.

    George Osborne to earn £650,000 at BlackRock for four days a month

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c3b9c90-0422-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/839557031841443841
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,027


    The biggest problem with the attack on the self-employed is not the amounts, but the attitude.

    Here we are, Brexit Britain, exciting and enterprising - ready to take on the world. And the first thing the new chancellor does is kick enterprising people in the teeth. Huh?

    If businesses are abusing the self employment system, then target those employers. If a business employs the bulk of their workers as "self-employed", then they probably are not and should be treated as employees. The self-employed working for a business should be for occasional use e.g. skills not available within the company or seasonal requirements; not for the majority of workers.

    Don't penalise people who are prepared to take a risk and create new jobs for our country.

    Well put, as I said earlier Mrs T saw the benefit of White Van Man and vice versa, the attitude displayed by Hammond will lead to more cash jobs/tax dodging.
    Nice line from McConnell on BBC; cutting corporation tax for Uber, while increasing the charges on it’s drivers.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    RobD said:



    Did the 70s electorate drift right or did reality drift left? Look at the radical positions of the 60s and 70s and they are orthodox now. If the electorate voted for a Conservative government that wanted to reinstate lower pay for women, for instance, then we'd know people had drifted right.

    Legislating for lower pay for women is right wing?
    No but it used to be. That's the point. The mainstream has moved to the left, rather than older voters moving to the right.
    You mean like in nationalising industry?
    For hospitals and trains, yes.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    edited March 2017
    Closely proportional to how rural an area is.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    RobD said:

    RobD said:



    Did the 70s electorate drift right or did reality drift left? Look at the radical positions of the 60s and 70s and they are orthodox now. If the electorate voted for a Conservative government that wanted to reinstate lower pay for women, for instance, then we'd know people had drifted right.

    Legislating for lower pay for women is right wing?
    No but it used to be. That's the point. The mainstream has moved to the left, rather than older voters moving to the right.
    Has any government actively legislated for lower pay for women?
    Are you deliberately missing the point, which was about the canard (imo) that voters move to the right as they get older? Instead, issues that used to be radical and left-wing, like equal pay for women, are now orthodox and conservative. It is the issues that have moved, not the voters.
    Your example was a conservative government legislating for lower pay for women. I was wondering when that had happened in the past.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031

    Mr. 1000, is that Wilders' party? Why the rapid decline?

    Yes it is.

    Why the decline? I have three theories:

    1. People like the Wilders/PVV policies, but don't actually want him running the country. (Trump running the US may have reinforced that!) By saying they support the PVV in polls, they drag other political parties policies nearer the PVV.

    2. It's not really about the EU/Euro in the Netherlands, it's about Muslim immigration. Something like 80% of Dutch people agree with the statement "the Euro has been good for the Netherlands", and on some polling even a majority of PVV voters agree. As other political parties have taken a harder line on Muslim immigration, it's taken the most popular policy away from the PVV.

    3. Geert Wilders went too far when he described Moroccan immigrants as "scum", which probably plays back into (1).

    If (1) is correct, it probably augers poorly for Marine Le Pen in France too, although there is more of an anti-Euro trend in France. (Not least because while the Dutch economy has had a pretty good last 17 years, the same is not really true of France.)
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080

    One day the electorate will rate Osborne as invaluable as Black Rock do. Mark my words.

    George Osborne to earn £650,000 at BlackRock for four days a month

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c3b9c90-0422-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/839557031841443841

    The electorate would have to vote for the PM to quadruple his salary then, even if Osborne made No 10
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031

    One day the electorate will rate Osborne as invaluable as Black Rock do. Mark my words.

    George Osborne to earn £650,000 at BlackRock for four days a month

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c3b9c90-0422-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/839557031841443841

    That's before tax.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,027

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    With some journalists.

    But millions on PAYE are LOLing at the outrage of others.

    'Take it from them and give it to me' always gets support.

    Hammond’s perception problem is that he’s, marginally at any rate, increased the taxes on self-employed journalists.
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    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107


    The biggest problem with the attack on the self-employed is not the amounts, but the attitude.

    Here we are, Brexit Britain, exciting and enterprising - ready to take on the world. And the first thing the new chancellor does is kick enterprising people in the teeth. Huh?

    If businesses are abusing the self employment system, then target those employers. If a business employs the bulk of their workers as "self-employed", then they probably are not and should be treated as employees. The self-employed working for a business should be for occasional use e.g. skills not available within the company or seasonal requirements; not for the majority of workers.

    Don't penalise people who are prepared to take a risk and create new jobs for our country.

    Well put, as I said earlier Mrs T saw the benefit of White Van Man and vice versa, the attitude displayed by Hammond will lead to more cash jobs/tax dodging.
    Nice line from McConnell on BBC; cutting corporation tax for Uber, while increasing the charges on it’s drivers.
    Exactly my point, self employed people will be "losing" an invoice or two, govt will be losing tax revenue.

    Don't bite the hand that feeds you Hammond
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    edited March 2017
    Looks a dead cert at the moment.

    Sean_F said:

    nielh said:

    malcolmg said:

    The former First Minister, who led the nationalists between 1990-2000 and 2004-2014, insisted he would “never say never” to a third spell.

    With Nicola Sturgeon potentially about to call a second independence referendum, despite little movement in the polls since 2014, pundits are already speculating about who could replace her if her gambit fails and she steps down.


    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15142866.Alex_Salmond_hints_that_he_could_return_to_lead_the_SNP_for_a_third_time/

    The conclusion is that there is no way out of a second referendum.
    So the end of Sturgeon and Salmond III......
    The end of May's precious, precious union.
    Not what the polls say.....if Sturgeon was as confident as you she'd have called it already.....
    Luckily she knows more about Scotland than you, Channel Islands view does not cut the mustard. It is coming and it will not be as easy for the dictators the next time.
    So nailed on then......
    It is disruptive, but so is leaving the EU, and the english voted for the latter.

    hmmm

    what happens if the demographics work the same as everywhere else ie the older you get the less radical you become ? So all those young active people start to worry more about the security of their pensions and social care and gradually shift their views.

    I always cite the example of the October 1974 general election. The Tories came third among 18-24 year olds. Move forward 41 years, this age cohort voted heavily Conservative and UKIP.
    same with that old mantra of those who grew up in the Thatcher years, theyve all drifted rightwards

    Im predicting SO will be a conservative councillor by 2020 :-)
    Lol

    Ignoring the technicalities every headline is about breaking manifesto pledges, the main effect will be to harden the electorate's disdain for politicians.

    Probably, although that's unfortunate, as politicians will never have an incentive to be grown up and try to explain without spin why they need to change position if we react with outrage every time it happens, before explanations are even attempted.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    edited March 2017

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/839567137320624128
    To be clear, I don't see this making very much difference to the polling. I can't see many self-employed switching to Labour as a result of this change. Perhaps UKIP will pick up some of the more crazed.

    We need to watch closely whether the executive can face down the backbenches. It will tell us a lot about how the rest of this Parliament will play out.
    57% back NI being increased on the self employed to the same level as the rest of us according to a snap Sky news poll so I doubt it makes virtually any difference to polling at all. Social care and the NHS have to be paid for and NI is the fairest way
    http://news.sky.com/story/sky-data-poll-public-support-national-insurance-hike-10795049
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,193
    RobD said:

    twitter.com/election_data/status/839564392635240454

    I see LD territory!
    And it's a Lib Dem style map, it would be nice to see the constituencies as equally sized hexagons like they use on election night.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited March 2017

    One day the electorate will rate Osborne as invaluable as Black Rock do. Mark my words.

    George Osborne to earn £650,000 at BlackRock for four days a month

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c3b9c90-0422-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

    ttps://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/839557031841443841

    I don’t think GO is long for the backbenches, or even parliament when there's that kind of money to be made out in the real world.
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    rcs1000 said:

    One day the electorate will rate Osborne as invaluable as Black Rock do. Mark my words.

    George Osborne to earn £650,000 at BlackRock for four days a month

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c3b9c90-0422-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/839557031841443841

    That's before tax.
    Taxes are for plebs.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    RobD said:

    Dixie said:

    It's never the policy, it is the media outrage. I think OGH said, if a story is still running 7 days later, then govt have a problem.

    Brexit will be back on the front pages soon enough, what with the schedule ping pong game on Monday!
    I bet the government won't be mad about the amendments now, given the chance to move back to loudly lamenting the outrage of the second chamber amending legislation.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    With some journalists.

    But millions on PAYE are LOLing at the outrage of others.

    'Take it from them and give it to me' always gets support.
    Yeah the texts to Radio 5 this morning have been broadly supportive with people on PAYE saying the NI rise is fairer.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    Dixie said:

    It's never the policy, it is the media outrage. I think OGH said, if a story is still running 7 days later, then govt have a problem.

    Yes probably. Should be off them by then unless there are more eye catching proposals which keep the whole debate going, but the snapshot poll only had just over 50% supporting - a few days of negative press and that might change.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,193

    One day the electorate will rate Osborne as invaluable as Black Rock do. Mark my words.

    George Osborne to earn £650,000 at BlackRock for four days a month

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c3b9c90-0422-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/839557031841443841

    In no way does that look dodgy. I'm sure he is (or, at least, was) worth every penny.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    edited March 2017

    Mortimer said:

    McMao doesn't seem to actually understand NIC or this change on R4.

    It isn't a new tax, it is a rate change.
    The economy isn't weakening.
    It is progressive.

    Amazing that Labour are so high in the polls, tbh.

    Short of killing babies in the street I'm not sure what Hammond could have done that would enable Labour to lay a glove on him
    On reflection it was probably a good thing he left that proposal out of the final draft of the speech.

    Although they could have in Copeland apparently.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    In one Harris poll by 1%, Ifop and Opinion Way still have Le Pen ahead in round 1
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    edited March 2017
    The newspapers after Budget Day are always like the Daily Express on house process or the weather every day.

    Not much happened: Politicians lied and there was a minor change to NI. Put things in perspective. Eighty years ago, George Orwell wrote The Road to Wigan Pier, and a century earlier, you could die from Cholera after drinking tap water.

    But it will be funny to see Lady Nugee defend white van man
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    One day the electorate will rate Osborne as invaluable as Black Rock do. Mark my words.

    George Osborne to earn £650,000 at BlackRock for four days a month

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c3b9c90-0422-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

    ttps://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/839557031841443841

    I don’t think GO is long for the backbenches, or even parliament when there's that kind of money to be made out in the real world.
    George is staying in Parliament, he won't let all the hard work he and Dave put it for over a decade taking the party from fewer than 200 MPs to government be torn down by May's rubbishness.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:



    Did the 70s electorate drift right or did reality drift left? Look at the radical positions of the 60s and 70s and they are orthodox now. If the electorate voted for a Conservative government that wanted to reinstate lower pay for women, for instance, then we'd know people had drifted right.

    Legislating for lower pay for women is right wing?
    No but it used to be. That's the point. The mainstream has moved to the left, rather than older voters moving to the right.
    Has any government actively legislated for lower pay for women?
    Are you deliberately missing the point, which was about the canard (imo) that voters move to the right as they get older? Instead, issues that used to be radical and left-wing, like equal pay for women, are now orthodox and conservative. It is the issues that have moved, not the voters.
    Your example was a conservative government legislating for lower pay for women. I was wondering when that had happened in the past.
    You seem to have misread or misunderstood it.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    Mortimer said:

    DavidL said:

    Those PBers who believe I've been over critical here of Hammond's bashing of the self-employed, dividend earning, largely Tory voting elements in our society, may wish to reserve judgement by awaiting the results of polls over the forthcoming weeks and months, including not least the May local elections in order to gauge the electoral damage Hammond's budget has actually done to the Blue Team.
    George Osborne certainly had his faults but his intuitive political gut instinct would have stopped him far short from presenting a budget on anything remotely on the scale of the Tory-bashing version we heard yesterday.

    Really? During the Osborne years I lost all of my personal allowance, the proportion of my income subject to 40% increased substantially and I had to pay back all of my Child Benefit. Higher earners like me were thumped repeatedly to allow him to address the deficit. I apparently had the broadest shoulders or something.

    I had no real problem with that, it was necessary and the alternative would have been true austerity with completely unacceptable cuts in public spending, something Osborne largely avoided. But yesterday was a mere pinprick by comparison.
    Quite.

    Well said.

    This is silly columnists being martyrish.
    Having slept on it I'm inclined to agree. Lots of people, including those affected by this proposal, have been hit by measures to date, and factvis were still massively overspending compared to what we bring in. If no one is prepared to slash spending, and it appears no one is, and borrowing is still high, which it is, then more people need to pay more. Is this too much and toounfair of a change? At the moment I think not, but do the government have the will to resist the criticism, particularly given the need to explain why now is different to when they mocked the idea?
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101

    One day the electorate will rate Osborne as invaluable as Black Rock do. Mark my words.

    George Osborne to earn £650,000 at BlackRock for four days a month

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c3b9c90-0422-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/839557031841443841

    I think that should say Osborne will be paid £650k rather than 'earn' it.

    Perhaps he'd like to donate it to HMRC as a miniscule penance for the £200bn plus he borrowed more than he said he would.

    On the wider issue I don't see any route back for Osborne - things could certainly go wrong for the government but what solutions does Osborne offer ? His economic strategy was based upon borrow and bribe and that will no longer be available if things go wrong.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,080
    edited March 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    In the Netherlands the PVV"s rapid decline continues. In the latest I&O poll It's now forecast to get less than 13% of the vote, equal with the rabidly pro-EU D66, and down on where it was in 2010.

    I & O still have the PVV 5 seats up on the last election as far as I can see but any move from the PVV to the VVW is because of the latter adopting much of Wilders' rhetoric on immigration.PM Rutte has even gone so far as to tell migrants to 'be normal or be gone', even May has not gone that far in her rhetoric yet
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/23/dutch-prime-minister-warns-migrants-normal-gone-fends-populist/amp/&ved=0ahUKEwiW8-XAgcnSAhWKfhoKHcP_CF0QFggaMAA&usg=AFQjCNHEj4GXFCf7KQ3OmNFPt67gtOw70A
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    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    One day the electorate will rate Osborne as invaluable as Black Rock do. Mark my words.

    George Osborne to earn £650,000 at BlackRock for four days a month

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c3b9c90-0422-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

    ttps://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/839557031841443841

    I don’t think GO is long for the backbenches, or even parliament when there's that kind of money to be made out in the real world.
    George is staying in Parliament, he won't let all the hard work he and Dave put it for over a decade taking the party from fewer than 200 MPs to government be torn down by May's rubbishness.
    Osborne is proving, along with 86 year old Kaufman, that there's not much point in most of our MPs, they're far more interested in other things.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,340
    edited March 2017
    glw said:

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    With some journalists.

    But millions on PAYE are LOLing at the outrage of others.

    'Take it from them and give it to me' always gets support.
    Yeah the texts to Radio 5 this morning have been broadly supportive with people on PAYE saying the NI rise is fairer.
    Watching and listening to the media and the publics reaction there does seem to be anger that there is any difference at all between employed and self employed NICs and it is clear this has highlighted an issue that has been under the radar of the populace.

    Sky's poll showed 57% approval and the comments by the public to the media would seem to confirm that this is quite a popular move particularly as it was tied into increased social care funding
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Mr. 1000, cheers for that answer.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This looks quite interesting research re politics in academia

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/is-the-left-over-represented-within-academia-90b1cbe00e8a
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897

    One day the electorate will rate Osborne as invaluable as Black Rock do. Mark my words.

    George Osborne to earn £650,000 at BlackRock for four days a month

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c3b9c90-0422-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/839557031841443841

    For speeches and 12 days a quarter as an adviser? It's a ridiculous amount, but if it doesn't take him away from the day job all that much, it doesn't really matter how much he earns.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101
    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. 1000, is that Wilders' party? Why the rapid decline?

    Yes it is.

    Why the decline? I have three theories:

    1. People like the Wilders/PVV policies, but don't actually want him running the country. (Trump running the US may have reinforced that!) By saying they support the PVV in polls, they drag other political parties policies nearer the PVV.

    2. It's not really about the EU/Euro in the Netherlands, it's about Muslim immigration. Something like 80% of Dutch people agree with the statement "the Euro has been good for the Netherlands", and on some polling even a majority of PVV voters agree. As other political parties have taken a harder line on Muslim immigration, it's taken the most popular policy away from the PVV.

    3. Geert Wilders went too far when he described Moroccan immigrants as "scum", which probably plays back into (1).

    If (1) is correct, it probably augers poorly for Marine Le Pen in France too, although there is more of an anti-Euro trend in France. (Not least because while the Dutch economy has had a pretty good last 17 years, the same is not really true of France.)
    Doesn't the Netherlands have one of largest household debts in the western world ?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897

    One day the electorate will rate Osborne as invaluable as Black Rock do. Mark my words.

    George Osborne to earn £650,000 at BlackRock for four days a month

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c3b9c90-0422-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

    ttps://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/839557031841443841

    I don’t think GO is long for the backbenches, or even parliament when there's that kind of money to be made out in the real world.
    George is staying in Parliament, he won't let all the hard work he and Dave put it for over a decade taking the party from fewer than 200 MPs to government be torn down by May's rubbishness.
    That might be his intention, but if she improves in his eyes, or if she is going to win big regardless and do no one will help him change matters, why stick around?

    On the other hand he's clearly currently able to earn bucketloads while still being working as an mp 5 days a week, taking saturdays into consideration, so if he wants to wait for an opportunity why not.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    edited March 2017

    Watching and listening to the media and the publics reaction there does seem to be anger that there is any difference at all between employed and self employed NICs and it is clear this has highlighted an issue that has been under the radar of the populace.

    Quite. I think that most people on PAYE are none too happy to discover that the self employed were paying a lower rate.

    There is one area where the Labour Party does have a point, if taxes between the self employed and those on PAYE are harmonised, we also need to look at harmonising the benefits. Self employment and the "gig economy" are likely to grow considerably, and the job for life will become ever rarer, people need to be supported by the state whichever path their employment will take.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    glw said:

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    With some journalists.

    But millions on PAYE are LOLing at the outrage of others.

    'Take it from them and give it to me' always gets support.
    Yeah the texts to Radio 5 this morning have been broadly supportive with people on PAYE saying the NI rise is fairer.
    Watching and listening to the media and the publics reaction there does seem to be anger that there is any difference at all between employed and self employed NICs and it is clear this has highlighted an issue that has been under the radar of the populace.

    Sky's poll showed 57% approval and the comments by the public to the media would seem to confirm that this is quite a popular move particularly as it was tied into increased social care funding

    Yes, there's a lot of ignorance over this. Or perhaps it was Hammond spending 10% of his speech spreading propaganda about it.

    The more interesting questions will be if the public support equalising all benefits for self-employed. Will the taxpayer be prepared to pay for the sick/holiday/pay etc. If people want equal tax, then there has to be equal benefits. Right?

  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101

    glw said:

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    With some journalists.

    But millions on PAYE are LOLing at the outrage of others.

    'Take it from them and give it to me' always gets support.
    Yeah the texts to Radio 5 this morning have been broadly supportive with people on PAYE saying the NI rise is fairer.
    Watching and listening to the media and the publics reaction there does seem to be anger that there is any difference at all between employed and self employed NICs and it is clear this has highlighted an issue that has been under the radar of the populace.

    That will be a key point.

    People on PAYE will be looking at their payslips - perhaps for the first time really noticing how much NI they pay - and asking why the self-employed pay a lower rate of NI than they do.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897

    One day the electorate will rate Osborne as invaluable as Black Rock do. Mark my words.

    George Osborne to earn £650,000 at BlackRock for four days a month

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c3b9c90-0422-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

    ttps://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/839557031841443841

    I don’t think GO is long for the backbenches, or even parliament when there's that kind of money to be made out in the real world.
    George is staying in Parliament, he won't let all the hard work he and Dave put it for over a decade taking the party from fewer than 200 MPs to government be torn down by May's rubbishness.
    Osborne is proving, along with 86 year old Kaufman, that there's not much point in most of our MPs, they're far more interested in other things.
    How so? 4 days a month as an adviser and making speeches to people with more money than sense, neither takes up much of his time.

    You might be right, but I don't see how this speaks to it. If he was splitting his time 50/50 or rather than speeches he was earning the rest in a dodgy way, maybe.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,216
    edited March 2017
    nielh said:


    You are making the error that 1) history repeats itself and 2) staying in the UK is the conservative option. Could be independence and joining the EU is seen as the conservative option. As i said the EU referendum outcome was a rejection of the conservative/status quo position

    The most convincing aspect of the 'we all end up eating babies' argument is that it's almost always life long baby eaters who make it.
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    glw said:

    people need to be supported by the state whichever path their employment will take.

    Why?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    Morning all,

    Didn't watch budget and only just catching up with details. Did see some clips of Hammond in action. It struck me that far more perturbing than any actual changes being announced was his style - the seemly endless, petty jokes at Corbyn and Labour's expense.

    This struck me as cheap and unbecoming of the Budget process and the office of CoE.

    Am I being old fashioned?
  • Options
    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    kle4 said:

    One day the electorate will rate Osborne as invaluable as Black Rock do. Mark my words.

    George Osborne to earn £650,000 at BlackRock for four days a month

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c3b9c90-0422-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

    ttps://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/839557031841443841

    I don’t think GO is long for the backbenches, or even parliament when there's that kind of money to be made out in the real world.
    George is staying in Parliament, he won't let all the hard work he and Dave put it for over a decade taking the party from fewer than 200 MPs to government be torn down by May's rubbishness.
    Osborne is proving, along with 86 year old Kaufman, that there's not much point in most of our MPs, they're far more interested in other things.
    How so? 4 days a month as an adviser and making speeches to people with more money than sense, neither takes up much of his time.

    You might be right, but I don't see how this speaks to it. If he was splitting his time 50/50 or rather than speeches he was earning the rest in a dodgy way, maybe.
    His "part time" earnings are approx 10 times that of his proper job, I can't think of another profession where that would occur
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    edited March 2017
    kle4 said:

    One day the electorate will rate Osborne as invaluable as Black Rock do. Mark my words.

    George Osborne to earn £650,000 at BlackRock for four days a month

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c3b9c90-0422-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

    ttps://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/839557031841443841

    I don’t think GO is long for the backbenches, or even parliament when there's that kind of money to be made out in the real world.
    George is staying in Parliament, he won't let all the hard work he and Dave put it for over a decade taking the party from fewer than 200 MPs to government be torn down by May's rubbishness.
    That might be his intention, but if she improves in his eyes, or if she is going to win big regardless and do no one will help him change matters, why stick around?

    On the other hand he's clearly currently able to earn bucketloads while still being working as an mp 5 days a week, taking saturdays into consideration, so if he wants to wait for an opportunity why not.
    He is a politician. It is about being in a position to wield influence and power and back your view of a society which you believe is the right one. Only as an MP (and to a lesser extent as a local politician) can you do that. It is a 650/65m position.

    Why on earth would he, or anyone without Jezza as party leader, want to give it up?
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,216
    edited March 2017
    It was hilarious this morning to hear Hammond squirming out of the various Tory manifesto promises that Nick Robinson presented him with, only to finally assert that there had to be an EU referendum because, er, it was a Tory manifesto promise.

    'You don't like this manifesto commitment? I have others.'
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    glw said:

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    With some journalists.

    But millions on PAYE are LOLing at the outrage of others.

    'Take it from them and give it to me' always gets support.
    Yeah the texts to Radio 5 this morning have been broadly supportive with people on PAYE saying the NI rise is fairer.
    Watching and listening to the media and the publics reaction there does seem to be anger that there is any difference at all between employed and self employed NICs and it is clear this has highlighted an issue that has been under the radar of the populace.

    That will be a key point.

    People on PAYE will be looking at their payslips - perhaps for the first time really noticing how much NI they pay - and asking why the self-employed pay a lower rate of NI than they do.

    Because the self-employed get less benefits. Also we (should) want to, as a country, encourage people to be self-employed which can lead on to setting up business which create jobs.

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969
    edited March 2017
    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    DavidL said:

    Those PBers who believe I've been over critical here of Hammond's bashing of the self-employed, dividend earning, largely Tory voting elements in our society, may wish to reserve judgement by awaiting the results of polls over the forthcoming weeks and months, including not least the May local elections in order to gauge the electoral damage Hammond's budget has actually done to the Blue Team.
    George Osborne certainly had his faults but his intuitive political gut instinct would have stopped him far short from presenting a budget on anything remotely on the scale of the Tory-bashing version we heard yesterday.

    Really? During the Osborne years I lost all of my personal allowance, the proportion of my income subject to 40% increased substantially and I had to pay back all of my Child Benefit. Higher earners like me were thumped repeatedly to allow him to address the deficit. I apparently had the broadest shoulders or something.

    I had no real problem with that, it was necessary and the alternative would have been true austerity with completely unacceptable cuts in public spending, something Osborne largely avoided. But yesterday was a mere pinprick by comparison.
    Quite.

    Well said.

    This is silly columnists being martyrish.
    Having slept on it I'm inclined to agree. Lots of people, including those affected by this proposal, have been hit by measures to date, and factvis were still massively overspending compared to what we bring in. If no one is prepared to slash spending, and it appears no one is, and borrowing is still high, which it is, then more people need to pay more. Is this too much and toounfair of a change? At the moment I think not, but do the government have the will to resist the criticism, particularly given the need to explain why now is different to when they mocked the idea?
    And that is the problem. In spite of the idiotic screaming by the Left about austerity, no one has actually really tried to do anything about Government spending. It continues to rise year after year - in 2005 it was just below £500 billion a year and in 2016 it was almost £750 billion a year. Such increases are simply unsustainable and we need real cuts in the size of the State and a real change in what we expect the State to be doing.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101

    Morning all,

    Didn't watch budget and only just catching up with details. Did see some clips of Hammond in action. It struck me that far more perturbing than any actual changes being announced was his style - the seemly endless, petty jokes at Corbyn and Labour's expense.

    This struck me as cheap and unbecoming of the Budget process and the office of CoE.

    Am I being old fashioned?

    No
  • Options

    rcs1000 said:

    One day the electorate will rate Osborne as invaluable as Black Rock do. Mark my words.

    George Osborne to earn £650,000 at BlackRock for four days a month

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c3b9c90-0422-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/839557031841443841

    That's before tax.
    Taxes are for plebs.
    Is he doing this work through a company though...... a la Ken Livingstone?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,994
    Mr. Borough, only seen a few clips of the Budget, but I agree with you on that. Budget's should be pretty sombre affairs.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    Alison McGovern‏Verified account @Alison_McGovern 21m21 minutes ago

    At last someone asks Hammond about failure on the deficit. #BBCR4today

    Oh please, a Labour MP asks about deficit when John McD's plan is to turn on the money printing presses and push the dial to 11.

    you would have to heart of stone etc.
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    glw said:

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    With some journalists.

    But millions on PAYE are LOLing at the outrage of others.

    'Take it from them and give it to me' always gets support.
    Yeah the texts to Radio 5 this morning have been broadly supportive with people on PAYE saying the NI rise is fairer.
    Watching and listening to the media and the publics reaction there does seem to be anger that there is any difference at all between employed and self employed NICs and it is clear this has highlighted an issue that has been under the radar of the populace.

    Sky's poll showed 57% approval and the comments by the public to the media would seem to confirm that this is quite a popular move particularly as it was tied into increased social care funding

    Yes, there's a lot of ignorance over this. Or perhaps it was Hammond spending 10% of his speech spreading propaganda about it.

    The more interesting questions will be if the public support equalising all benefits for self-employed. Will the taxpayer be prepared to pay for the sick/holiday/pay etc. If people want equal tax, then there has to be equal benefits. Right?

    The problem is the huge difference between employed and self employed overall NIC contributions. Employees and Employers pay NIC amounting to circa 25% per employee while the self employed only pay 9% rising to 11% in 2019.

    The more this disparity is highlighted the less sympathy there will be for the self employed
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277

    Mr. Borough, only seen a few clips of the Budget, but I agree with you on that. Budget's should be pretty sombre affairs.

    Thankee Mr Dancer. I am not alone.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    glw said:

    Watching and listening to the media and the publics reaction there does seem to be anger that there is any difference at all between employed and self employed NICs and it is clear this has highlighted an issue that has been under the radar of the populace.

    Quite. I think that most people on PAYE are none too happy to discover that the self employed were paying a lower rate.

    There is one area where the Labour Party does have a point, if taxes between the self employed and those on PAYE are harmonised, we also need to look at harmonising the benefits. Self employment and the "gig economy" are likely to grow considerably, and the job for life will become ever rarer, people need to be supported by the state whichever path their employment will take.
    In the commentary I've read most of the tax advisers think that this is a sensible measure, aligning the tax rates, but perhaps could have been better explained. The journalists are not happy.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969

    glw said:

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    With some journalists.

    But millions on PAYE are LOLing at the outrage of others.

    'Take it from them and give it to me' always gets support.
    Yeah the texts to Radio 5 this morning have been broadly supportive with people on PAYE saying the NI rise is fairer.
    Watching and listening to the media and the publics reaction there does seem to be anger that there is any difference at all between employed and self employed NICs and it is clear this has highlighted an issue that has been under the radar of the populace.

    That will be a key point.

    People on PAYE will be looking at their payslips - perhaps for the first time really noticing how much NI they pay - and asking why the self-employed pay a lower rate of NI than they do.
    In which case they are ignorant. Tell them that they will get no holiday pay, no maternity pay, no company pension and if they get sick they will not only not get any pay but will lose their jobs as well. That should help to concentrate their minds.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    glw said:

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    With some journalists.

    But millions on PAYE are LOLing at the outrage of others.

    'Take it from them and give it to me' always gets support.
    Yeah the texts to Radio 5 this morning have been broadly supportive with people on PAYE saying the NI rise is fairer.
    Watching and listening to the media and the publics reaction there does seem to be anger that there is any difference at all between employed and self employed NICs and it is clear this has highlighted an issue that has been under the radar of the populace.

    Sky's poll showed 57% approval and the comments by the public to the media would seem to confirm that this is quite a popular move particularly as it was tied into increased social care funding

    Yes, there's a lot of ignorance over this. Or perhaps it was Hammond spending 10% of his speech spreading propaganda about it.

    The more interesting questions will be if the public support equalising all benefits for self-employed. Will the taxpayer be prepared to pay for the sick/holiday/pay etc. If people want equal tax, then there has to be equal benefits. Right?

    The problem is the huge difference between employed and self employed overall NIC contributions. Employees and Employers pay NIC amounting to circa 25% per employee while the self employed only pay 9% rising to 11% in 2019.

    The more this disparity is highlighted the less sympathy there will be for the self employed

    The government should not be highlighting only one side of the coin. It's stupid and dangerous.

  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    PlatoSaid said:

    This looks quite interesting research re politics in academia

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/is-the-left-over-represented-within-academia-90b1cbe00e8a

    It looks quite shoddy. For instance, GE2015 is not adjusted for age and to be fair, the author does say he did not have time for a fuller analysis. But I'm still not really sure that it particularly matters how academics vote.
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    BudGBudG Posts: 711
    HYUFD said:

    In one Harris poll by 1%, Ifop and Opinion Way still have Le Pen ahead in round 1
    I am taking Harris polls with a pinch of salt. Their last poll had Macron on 20%, and actually trailing Fillon, at a time when most other polls had Macron 22 or 23%
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    edited March 2017

    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. 1000, is that Wilders' party? Why the rapid decline?

    Yes it is.

    Why the decline? I have three theories:

    1. People like the Wilders/PVV policies, but don't actually want him running the country. (Trump running the US may have reinforced that!) By saying they support the PVV in polls, they drag other political parties policies nearer the PVV.

    2. It's not really about the EU/Euro in the Netherlands, it's about Muslim immigration. Something like 80% of Dutch people agree with the statement "the Euro has been good for the Netherlands", and on some polling even a majority of PVV voters agree. As other political parties have taken a harder line on Muslim immigration, it's taken the most popular policy away from the PVV.

    3. Geert Wilders went too far when he described Moroccan immigrants as "scum", which probably plays back into (1).

    If (1) is correct, it probably augers poorly for Marine Le Pen in France too, although there is more of an anti-Euro trend in France. (Not least because while the Dutch economy has had a pretty good last 17 years, the same is not really true of France.)
    Doesn't the Netherlands have one of largest household debts in the western world ?
    Yes, and for exactly the same reason we (and the Australians, the Danes and the Norwegians do): house prices are high and people have large mortgages.

    What's different between us and the Dutch is that their household savings rate is north of 10% of GDP, while ours is negative, so theirs is declining and ours is rising.

    Here are the 2014 numbers: http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/household_debt_gdp/
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897
    edited March 2017
    TOPPING said:

    kle4 said:

    One day the electorate will rate Osborne as invaluable as Black Rock do. Mark my words.

    George Osborne to earn £650,000 at BlackRock for four days a month

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c3b9c90-0422-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

    ttps://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/839557031841443841

    I don’t think GO is long for the backbenches, or even parliament when there's that kind of money to be made out in the real world.
    George is staying in Parliament, he won't let all the hard work he and Dave put it for over a decade taking the party from fewer than 200 MPs to government be torn down by May's rubbishness.
    That might be his intention, but if she improves in his eyes, or if she is going to win big regardless and do no one will help him change matters, why stick around?

    On the other hand he's clearly currently able to earn bucketloads while still being working as an mp 5 days a week, taking saturdays into consideration, so if he wants to wait for an opportunity why not.
    He is a politician. It is about being in a position to wield influence and power and back your view of a society which you believe is the right one. Only as an MP (and to a lesser extent as a local politician) can you do that. It is a 650/65m position.

    Why on earth would he, or anyone without Jezza as party leader, want to give it up?
    As has been seen with many of the resignations from the commons, if the prospect of not being in the dominant 326, and even more the prospect of being in the most powerful 20 or so, seems very low, some do tvseem able to handle that and look for other opportunities. Granted, yes, corbyn makes the position for labour MPs look grimmer, but Osborne is still a long way way and time from any greater power than 1/650 grants him.

    Osborne is still a young man as MPs go, he could wait for a long time for his chance at some influence at a senior level again. I actually hope he does, since I like the idea of former senior figures stucking around long term. And since he is able to earn big for his family while staying as an mp without egregiously splitting his time, maybe he will. But many seem to find they cannot face years of hard grind a second time.
  • Options

    Morning all,

    Didn't watch budget and only just catching up with details. Did see some clips of Hammond in action. It struck me that far more perturbing than any actual changes being announced was his style - the seemly endless, petty jokes at Corbyn and Labour's expense.

    This struck me as cheap and unbecoming of the Budget process and the office of CoE.

    Am I being old fashioned?

    To be fair if you had watched it live his jokes were well timed, funny, and dispensed his reputation for being boring
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    This budget's hit on the self-employed (even management consultants) will simply shake slightly any true-blue Tory's view of what the Conservative Party is there to do (ie not much if it can possibly help it in a low tax economy where individuals take responsibility for themselves). It is, like snapchat and buses without conductors, just one more changing element of our modern society.

    We'll get used to it.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    In the Netherlands the PVV"s rapid decline continues. In the latest I&O poll It's now forecast to get less than 13% of the vote, equal with the rabidly pro-EU D66, and down on where it was in 2010.

    I & O still have the PVV 5 seats up on the last election as far as I can see but any move from the PVV to the VVW is because of the latter adopting much of Wilders' rhetoric on immigration.PM Rutte has even gone so far as to tell migrants to 'be normal or be gone', even May has not gone that far in her rhetoric yet
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/23/dutch-prime-minister-warns-migrants-normal-gone-fends-populist/amp/&ved=0ahUKEwiW8-XAgcnSAhWKfhoKHcP_CF0QFggaMAA&usg=AFQjCNHEj4GXFCf7KQ3OmNFPt67gtOw70A
    I was comparing to 2010, when the PVV got 22 seats.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,101

    glw said:

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    With some journalists.

    But millions on PAYE are LOLing at the outrage of others.

    'Take it from them and give it to me' always gets support.
    Yeah the texts to Radio 5 this morning have been broadly supportive with people on PAYE saying the NI rise is fairer.
    Watching and listening to the media and the publics reaction there does seem to be anger that there is any difference at all between employed and self employed NICs and it is clear this has highlighted an issue that has been under the radar of the populace.

    That will be a key point.

    People on PAYE will be looking at their payslips - perhaps for the first time really noticing how much NI they pay - and asking why the self-employed pay a lower rate of NI than they do.

    Because the self-employed get less benefits. Also we (should) want to, as a country, encourage people to be self-employed which can lead on to setting up business which create jobs.

    To many people the self-employed are either:

    Tradesmen who get paid in cash
    Arthur Daly / Del Boy Trotter 'wheeler-dealers'
    Highly paid professionals working the tax system
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    glw said:

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    With some journalists.

    But millions on PAYE are LOLing at the outrage of others.

    'Take it from them and give it to me' always gets support.
    Yeah the texts to Radio 5 this morning have been broadly supportive with people on PAYE saying the NI rise is fairer.
    Watching and listening to the media and the publics reaction there does seem to be anger that there is any difference at all between employed and self employed NICs and it is clear this has highlighted an issue that has been under the radar of the populace.

    Sky's poll showed 57% approval and the comments by the public to the media would seem to confirm that this is quite a popular move particularly as it was tied into increased social care funding

    Yes, there's a lot of ignorance over this. Or perhaps it was Hammond spending 10% of his speech spreading propaganda about it.

    The more interesting questions will be if the public support equalising all benefits for self-employed. Will the taxpayer be prepared to pay for the sick/holiday/pay etc. If people want equal tax, then there has to be equal benefits. Right?

    AIUI there are. Elements like maternity benefit, SSP, etc are paid by the employer and should be considered part of total compensation. Someone should factor this in when considering whether to become s/e

    Elements like pensions are being moved into line.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    glw said:

    people need to be supported by the state whichever path their employment will take.

    Why?
    Because industry and commerce are now changing so fast that a person might start out after school or university as a full-time employee, expecting to work decades in the same job or at least the same industry, only to find that circumstances change so much that self employment becomes the main source of employment for people with their particular skills. Or maybe their job will be automated out of existence and they will need to retrain mid-life. Or maybe their jobs will be moved offshore where labour is much cheaper.

    The old idea of getting some qualifications and doing essentially the same job for 40+ years is becoming ever rarer. If labour has to become flexible, then taxation and benefits need to be reformed to support that.

  • Options
    freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107

    glw said:

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    With some journalists.

    But millions on PAYE are LOLing at the outrage of others.

    'Take it from them and give it to me' always gets support.
    Yeah the texts to Radio 5 this morning have been broadly supportive with people on PAYE saying the NI rise is fairer.
    Watching and listening to the media and the publics reaction there does seem to be anger that there is any difference at all between employed and self employed NICs and it is clear this has highlighted an issue that has been under the radar of the populace.

    Sky's poll showed 57% approval and the comments by the public to the media would seem to confirm that this is quite a popular move particularly as it was tied into increased social care funding

    Yes, there's a lot of ignorance over this. Or perhaps it was Hammond spending 10% of his speech spreading propaganda about it.

    The more interesting questions will be if the public support equalising all benefits for self-employed. Will the taxpayer be prepared to pay for the sick/holiday/pay etc. If people want equal tax, then there has to be equal benefits. Right?

    The problem is the huge difference between employed and self employed overall NIC contributions. Employees and Employers pay NIC amounting to circa 25% per employee while the self employed only pay 9% rising to 11% in 2019.

    The more this disparity is highlighted the less sympathy there will be for the self employed
    Until its explained what benefits and state pensions the self employed receive. You can't have it both ways.
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    glw said:

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    With some journalists.

    But millions on PAYE are LOLing at the outrage of others.

    'Take it from them and give it to me' always gets support.
    Yeah the texts to Radio 5 this morning have been broadly supportive with people on PAYE saying the NI rise is fairer.
    Watching and listening to the media and the publics reaction there does seem to be anger that there is any difference at all between employed and self employed NICs and it is clear this has highlighted an issue that has been under the radar of the populace.

    That will be a key point.

    People on PAYE will be looking at their payslips - perhaps for the first time really noticing how much NI they pay - and asking why the self-employed pay a lower rate of NI than they do.

    Because the self-employed get less benefits. Also we (should) want to, as a country, encourage people to be self-employed which can lead on to setting up business which create jobs.

    To many people the self-employed are either:

    Tradesmen who get paid in cash
    Arthur Daly / Del Boy Trotter 'wheeler-dealers'
    Highly paid professionals working the tax system

    That's a lot of ignorance then.

  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    glw said:

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    With some journalists.

    But millions on PAYE are LOLing at the outrage of others.

    'Take it from them and give it to me' always gets support.
    Yeah the texts to Radio 5 this morning have been broadly supportive with people on PAYE saying the NI rise is fairer.
    Watching and listening to the media and the publics reaction there does seem to be anger that there is any difference at all between employed and self employed NICs and it is clear this has highlighted an issue that has been under the radar of the populace.

    That will be a key point.

    People on PAYE will be looking at their payslips - perhaps for the first time really noticing how much NI they pay - and asking why the self-employed pay a lower rate of NI than they do.
    In which case they are ignorant. Tell them that they will get no holiday pay, no maternity pay, no company pension and if they get sick they will not only not get any pay but will lose their jobs as well. That should help to concentrate their minds.
    Holiday Pay is funded by the company not by the state and isn't paid for by National Insurance.
    Sick Pay is funded by the company not by the state and isn't paid by National Insurance.
    Company Pensions are funded by the company [and the employee] and aren't paid for by National Insurance.

    In fact if I as an employer hire someone who is sick or goes on holiday then I have to pay them out of my own pocket and pay Employers National Insurance on top of that. So no it's not at all relevant to the discussion.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,897

    kle4 said:

    One day the electorate will rate Osborne as invaluable as Black Rock do. Mark my words.

    George Osborne to earn £650,000 at BlackRock for four days a month

    https://www.ft.com/content/4c3b9c90-0422-11e7-ace0-1ce02ef0def9

    ttps://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/839557031841443841

    I don’t think GO is long for the backbenches, or even parliament when there's that kind of money to be made out in the real world.
    George is staying in Parliament, he won't let all the hard work he and Dave put it for over a decade taking the party from fewer than 200 MPs to government be torn down by May's rubbishness.
    Osborne is proving, along with 86 year old Kaufman, that there's not much point in most of our MPs, they're far more interested in other things.
    How so? 4 days a month as an adviser and making speeches to people with more money than sense, neither takes up much of his time.

    You might be right, but I don't see how this speaks to it. If he was splitting his time 50/50 or rather than speeches he was earning the rest in a dodgy way, maybe.
    His "part time" earnings are approx 10 times that of his proper job, I can't think of another profession where that would occur
    Nor can I, but if people choose to give ridiculous amounts for small amounts of contracted work and some after dinner speeches, it's their money. It still doesn't say anything about his focus being elsewhere. It just says he's focusing most of his time, at present, on his day job, and apparently he's far savvier, at least in negotiation, than his time as chancellor seemed to indicate.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    TOPPING said:

    This budget's hit on the self-employed (even management consultants) will simply shake slightly any true-blue Tory's view of what the Conservative Party is there to do (ie not much if it can possibly help it in a low tax economy where individuals take responsibility for themselves). It is, like snapchat and buses without conductors, just one more changing element of our modern society.

    We'll get used to it.

    i agree with the poster about the odd lost invoice.. its a foolish change
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,952

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/839567137320624128
    To be clear, I don't see this making very much difference to the polling. I can't see many self-employed switching to Labour as a result of this change. Perhaps UKIP will pick up some of the more crazed.

    We need to watch closely whether the executive can face down the backbenches. It will tell us a lot about how the rest of this Parliament will play out.
    https://twitter.com/thedailymash/status/839760885853868032
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    glw said:

    glw said:

    people need to be supported by the state whichever path their employment will take.

    Why?
    Because industry and commerce are now changing so fast that a person might start out after school or university as a full-time employee, expecting to work decades in the same job or at least the same industry, only to find that circumstances change so much that self employment becomes the main source of employment for people with their particular skills. Or maybe their job will be automated out of existence and they will need to retrain mid-life. Or maybe their jobs will be moved offshore where labour is much cheaper.

    The old idea of getting some qualifications and doing essentially the same job for 40+ years is becoming ever rarer. If labour has to become flexible, then taxation and benefits need to be reformed to support that.

    Did I see a stat the other day that said that people in the UK move jobs every three years. In London every two. Not sure jump or pushed.
  • Options

    glw said:

    Looking at the front pages, the government's honeymoon has been interrupted at least.

    With some journalists.

    But millions on PAYE are LOLing at the outrage of others.

    'Take it from them and give it to me' always gets support.
    Yeah the texts to Radio 5 this morning have been broadly supportive with people on PAYE saying the NI rise is fairer.
    Watching and listening to the media and the publics reaction there does seem to be anger that there is any difference at all between employed and self employed NICs and it is clear this has highlighted an issue that has been under the radar of the populace.

    Sky's poll showed 57% approval and the comments by the public to the media would seem to confirm that this is quite a popular move particularly as it was tied into increased social care funding

    Yes, there's a lot of ignorance over this. Or perhaps it was Hammond spending 10% of his speech spreading propaganda about it.

    The more interesting questions will be if the public support equalising all benefits for self-employed. Will the taxpayer be prepared to pay for the sick/holiday/pay etc. If people want equal tax, then there has to be equal benefits. Right?

    The problem is the huge difference between employed and self employed overall NIC contributions. Employees and Employers pay NIC amounting to circa 25% per employee while the self employed only pay 9% rising to 11% in 2019.

    The more this disparity is highlighted the less sympathy there will be for the self employed
    Until its explained what benefits and state pensions the self employed receive. You can't have it both ways.
    I agree but is it not the case that the self employed will get the new enhanced state pension of circa £155 per week along with everyone else
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,658
    Re my post yesterday on the 'Who Dares Wins' sketch of the 1980s based on 'Allo Allo' but transported from a French Cafe to a Northern Ireland Pub; I was asked if I could find a video of it. Sorry I have failed. All I could find was a comment from a fan who refer to it as 'biting'. I was obviously memorable to have stayed with me all that time.

    As time has moved on I suspect it isn't shocking at all now, but I remember at the time the impact it had. As far as I was concerned (and still as far as I am concerned) Allo Allo was/is a completely inoffensive show. When transported to an active conflict it was shocking.

    If anyone does find it I would like to see it again also, although as said I suspect it will have completely lost its potency now.
This discussion has been closed.