If it's Macron v Fillon the most damaging thing that can be thrown at Macron is that he's the continuity Hollande candidate. He'll need to do something striking on economic reform to appeal to right-wing voters.
We really need a poll or two showing head to heads between Macron and Fillon. Last poll was at the end of January when the Fillon scandal first hit the news and Macron was ahead fairly comfortably 58-42. However, Fillon appears to have stabilised a little over the past few days and he would be far more likely to gain Le Pen second round preferences than Macron.
If it's Macron v Fillon, then it would mean Fillon has improved his overall position a little and the result would be very close.
I think Fillon vs Macron would be very very hard to call. Neither terrifies the voters in the way Le Pen does causing everyone who isn't her support to rush over to the other side. France has elected plenty of crooks before, and Fillon has "Les republicans" banner (Well it got Trump over the line in the USA) - I'd expect Le Pen voters also to broadly support Fillon
Very hard to call, perhaps evens the pair ?
I would say, in the absence of recent polling evidence, that evens the pair would be about right.
Macron backers could find themselves in a situation where he wins the first round, and his odds go sharply northwards, if Fillon makes it past Le Pen
Spending may be going up but services are being severely cut. That's just a matter of fact. Schools are laying off teachers, social care is in meltdown, even something as prosaic as bin collection is being restricted.
Lots of things should happen. If you want a much smaller state, tell us how to get there without it having a massively negative effect on millions of people.
There will be a massively negative effect on people no matter what you do or don't do. We certainly do not have the money as a country to sustain the sorts of welfare systems that we currently have. And it doesn't matter how much you tax people that will always be the case. Governments need to start being honest about this for start. Welfare should be a safety net for those most in need not a means of maintaining people in a middle class lifestyle. You can signal this straight away by getting rid of all those bribes for the elderly. Make people working past retirement age continue to pay tax and NI just as they did before. Dump all the little bribes that have built up over the years. It won't save a fortune to start with but it will help to signal a fundamental change in what Government is meant to be there for.
Welfare should be a safety net not a lifestyle choice. Nor should it be there to make life 'easier' or for social engineering. No one earning more than the average wage should be getting government handouts. Also make companies take more responsibility for the welfare of their employees. They have made a start with compulsory workplace pensions. Extend that to compulsory health insurance for all employees.
Also get rid of the idea that if you have paid in to our system you must get something back. A safety net works by making sure that those who are in real need are supported by those who are not. That means that there will be some who pay but do not directly receive just as there will be those who receive but do not pay. This should be the norm not the exception.
F1: unsure how many this will interest, but I'll be offering some spread betting suggestions after the second test (NB not 'tips' as such because I won't be playing. I'm going to keep an eye on the spread markets with the possibility of playing next year).
If the markets are ready shortly after the second test I'll include them after my Test 2 post, if not, I'll make a separate, short one (unless they're really slow, in which case I'll include them with the Australian weekend posts).
If it's Macron v Fillon the most damaging thing that can be thrown at Macron is that he's the continuity Hollande candidate. He'll need to do something striking on economic reform to appeal to right-wing voters.
We really need a poll or two showing head to heads between Macron and Fillon. Last poll was at the end of January when the Fillon scandal first hit the news and Macron was ahead fairly comfortably 58-42. However, Fillon appears to have stabilised a little over the past few days and he would be far more likely to gain Le Pen second round preferences than Macron.
If it's Macron v Fillon, then it would mean Fillon has improved his overall position a little and the result would be very close.
I think Fillon vs Macron would be very very hard to call. Neither terrifies the voters in the way Le Pen does causing everyone who isn't her support to rush over to the other side. France has elected plenty of crooks before, and Fillon has "Les republicans" banner (Well it got Trump over the line in the USA) - I'd expect Le Pen voters also to broadly support Fillon
Very hard to call, perhaps evens the pair ?
I would say, in the absence of recent polling evidence, that evens the pair would be about right.
Macron backers could find themselves in a situation where he wins the first round, and his odds go sharply northwards, if Fillon makes it past Le Pen
When is last day for nominations and all that jazz?
If journos dont like a minor increase in their NI, they can always vote labour and get this instead.
The Tories are very lucky to be facing people like Corbyn and McDonnell, rarely do such unpalatable people rise to the leadership of a mainstream political party.
7m odd people having to pay 20% of their wealth...
The biggest problem with the attack on the self-employed is not the amounts, but the attitude.
Here we are, Brexit Britain, exciting and enterprising - ready to take on the world. And the first thing the new chancellor does is kick enterprising people in the teeth. Huh?
If businesses are abusing the self employment system, then target those employers. If a business employs the bulk of their workers as "self-employed", then they probably are not and should be treated as employees. The self-employed working for a business should be for occasional use e.g. skills not available within the company or seasonal requirements; not for the majority of workers.
Don't penalise people who are prepared to take a risk and create new jobs for our country.
If journos dont like a minor increase in their NI, they can always vote labour and get this instead.
The Tories are very lucky to be facing people like Corbyn and McDonnell, rarely do such unpalatable people rise to the leadership of a mainstream political party.
7m odd people having to pay 20% of their wealth...
If journos dont like a minor increase in their NI, they can always vote labour and get this instead.
The Tories are very lucky to be facing people like Corbyn and McDonnell, rarely do such unpalatable people rise to the leadership of a mainstream political party.
Cameron and Osborne? Polling evidence gives Theresa May far higher leads against the same opposition.
If it's Macron v Fillon the most damaging thing that can be thrown at Macron is that he's the continuity Hollande candidate. He'll need to do something striking on economic reform to appeal to right-wing voters.
We really need a poll or two showing head to heads between Macron and Fillon. Last poll was at the end of January when the Fillon scandal first hit the news and Macron was ahead fairly comfortably 58-42. However, Fillon appears to have stabilised a little over the past few days and he would be far more likely to gain Le Pen second round preferences than Macron.
If it's Macron v Fillon, then it would mean Fillon has improved his overall position a little and the result would be very close.
I think Fillon vs Macron would be very very hard to call. Neither terrifies the voters in the way Le Pen does causing everyone who isn't her support to rush over to the other side. France has elected plenty of crooks before, and Fillon has "Les republicans" banner (Well it got Trump over the line in the USA) - I'd expect Le Pen voters also to broadly support Fillon
Very hard to call, perhaps evens the pair ?
I would say, in the absence of recent polling evidence, that evens the pair would be about right.
Macron backers could find themselves in a situation where he wins the first round, and his odds go sharply northwards, if Fillon makes it past Le Pen
When is last day for nominations and all that jazz?
Phil Hammond has made a rookie mistake with the NIC change. It's a rather strange error for a number of reasons:
- It was an entirely unforced error. As he himself said, he could have simply decided not to go ahead with Osborne's planned abolition of Class II NICs, which wouldn't have broken the manifesto commitment. In any case, it doesn't actually raise very much.
- Some of the blame should go on to Osborne and Cameron, who should never have made the pledge in the first place. Still, Hammond should have seen that breaking the pledge was toxic.
- On the other hand, pretty much everyone (except representatives of small businesses and, oddly, some Tory MPs) agrees that the change is, in itself, fair and justified.
- However, Hammond lost the possibility of defending the measure on its own merits by the way he presented it. If he was determined to break the pledge, he should have been up-front about it, emphasising that circumstances have changed, and also put more emphasis on the fact that Class II NICs are being abolished. As it is, he's looking shifty because he is simultaneously arguing that he's not breaking the manifesto pledge and arguing that the measure is justified because circumstances have changed; he can't have it both ways.
It is, in summary, a bit of a disaster, and an unnecessary one.
It's odd, isn't it. You have these highly intelligent people running government, and Hammond is one such person. The government must have done some kind of risk analysis over this issue, so why have they made such a mess of it? Like you say, had he been completely up front and explained why the manifesto pledge had to be changed, then this fuss would have been a lot less hysterical. I personally believe it is the right thing to do, but the politics, as ever, take primary position.
Of course Labour will wail and gnash their teeth, but I don't think the public will fall for their faux outrage. They have been screaming for more funding for social care - they have it - and now they are condeming the way the money has been raised.
I suspect that they either forgot that journos would be massively adversely affected - or just don't care and reckon that the opposition is weak enough that they can ride it out. Either way the real problem is that we have a Govt that feels (and acts) like it has a massive majority because of the uselessness of the opposition - but technically don't and need to keep their own side on-side. It's a different balancing act to any that they will have been used to previously.
If it's Macron v Fillon the most damaging thing that can be thrown at Macron is that he's the continuity Hollande candidate. He'll need to do something striking on economic reform to appeal to right-wing voters.
We really need a poll or two showing head to heads between Macron and Fillon. Last poll was at the end of January when the Fillon scandal first hit the news and Macron was ahead fairly comfortably 58-42. However, Fillon appears to have stabilised a little over the past few days and he would be far more likely to gain Le Pen second round preferences than Macron.
If it's Macron v Fillon, then it would mean Fillon has improved his overall position a little and the result would be very close.
I think Fillon vs Macron would be very very hard to call. Neither terrifies the voters in the way Le Pen does causing everyone who isn't her support to rush over to the other side. France has elected plenty of crooks before, and Fillon has "Les republicans" banner (Well it got Trump over the line in the USA) - I'd expect Le Pen voters also to broadly support Fillon
Very hard to call, perhaps evens the pair ?
I would say, in the absence of recent polling evidence, that evens the pair would be about right.
Macron backers could find themselves in a situation where he wins the first round, and his odds go sharply northwards, if Fillon makes it past Le Pen
When is last day for nominations and all that jazz?
March 17th
cheers. No more bonkers black swans such as Hollande after then.
If journos dont like a minor increase in their NI, they can always vote labour and get this instead.
The Tories are very lucky to be facing people like Corbyn and McDonnell, rarely do such unpalatable people rise to the leadership of a mainstream political party.
Cameron and Osborne? Polling evidence gives Theresa May far higher leads against the same opposition.
In the real world superior by-election results too. Those have a decent correlation with actual GE results.
"Indeed, this paper’s greatest worry is that Mr Hammond simply doesn’t understand the hard-working, self-reliant, risk-taking self-employed who are his party’s core supporters"
By which they mean the guy who just sub-edited this comment piece.
I think Fillon vs Macron would be very very hard to call. Neither terrifies the voters in the way Le Pen does causing everyone who isn't her support to rush over to the other side. France has elected plenty of crooks before, and Fillon has "Les republicans" banner (Well it got Trump over the line in the USA) - I'd expect Le Pen voters also to broadly support Fillon
Very hard to call, perhaps evens the pair ?
I'd still make Macron favourite, and by quite a margin. Don't forget that it would only be Le Pen voters whose support might be up for grabs, but also supporters of Hamon and Mélenchon.
Le Pen's supporters equate roughly in number to Macron and Melenchon combined. Macron would get the vast majority of Hamon supporters who bothered to vote second round. Melenchon suporters, maybe not so many. And then there are the supporters of Dupon-Aignon who is polling around 3-4%. His suppoorters would almost certainly be voting for Fillon as he is far right.
Macron could win against Fillon of course, but certainly not by "quite a margin".
I personally like Corbyn's rock-like integrity and unwillingness to score cheap hits. But in the political world as it is, I do see that McDonnell is right to take the opportunity.
Of course it's his "integrity" that stopped him scoring political points, and not the fact that he is completely, totally, utterly useless at his job, unfit to be in that position, but his "integrity' prevents him from standing down for the sake of the party...
I expect this to be rejected instantly by bunker mode sorts
"U.S. officials say a months-long FBI counterintelligence investigation into Russian attempts to manipulate the U.S. election, did not bring up enough evidence to charge anyone criminally, according to a report from Circa.
Agents who investigated claims of computer server activity tied to Russia and then President-elect-Trump’s businesses in New York’s Trump Towers came to the conclusion that no disreputable contacts, financial transactions or encrypted communications occurred with the Russians, according to Circa.
Those in the intelligence community who spoke to the outlet appeared to be frustrated over the representation in the media of their investigation of Russia’s activities.
“We have people spouting off who don’t know the difference between FISA surveillance and a wiretap or a counterintelligence probe versus a special prosecutor criminal case, and it has hurts our ability to get to the truth and has wrongly created the impression that intelligence officials have a political agenda,” said one source directly familiar with the situation.
Comments
Macron backers could find themselves in a situation where he wins the first round, and his odds go sharply northwards, if Fillon makes it past Le Pen
If the markets are ready shortly after the second test I'll include them after my Test 2 post, if not, I'll make a separate, short one (unless they're really slow, in which case I'll include them with the Australian weekend posts).
Lols. good luck with that.
The tax rise on freelance journalists has angered my TL for some reason
NEW THREAD
"Indeed, this paper’s greatest worry is that Mr Hammond simply doesn’t understand the hard-working, self-reliant, risk-taking self-employed who are his party’s core supporters"
By which they mean the guy who just sub-edited this comment piece.
Hmm. Not going to be good odds on the McLarens not to be classified at the first race. Could affect safety car potential as well.
Macron could win against Fillon of course, but certainly not by "quite a margin".
Herr Flick
Helga
Lieutenant Gruber
Were all signing autographs at this last year
http://www.ashdowncamp.com/events.html
"U.S. officials say a months-long FBI counterintelligence investigation into Russian attempts to manipulate the U.S. election, did not bring up enough evidence to charge anyone criminally, according to a report from Circa.
Agents who investigated claims of computer server activity tied to Russia and then President-elect-Trump’s businesses in New York’s Trump Towers came to the conclusion that no disreputable contacts, financial transactions or encrypted communications occurred with the Russians, according to Circa.
Those in the intelligence community who spoke to the outlet appeared to be frustrated over the representation in the media of their investigation of Russia’s activities.
“We have people spouting off who don’t know the difference between FISA surveillance and a wiretap or a counterintelligence probe versus a special prosecutor criminal case, and it has hurts our ability to get to the truth and has wrongly created the impression that intelligence officials have a political agenda,” said one source directly familiar with the situation.
Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2017/03/08/report-fbi-russia-probe-failed-to-find-evidence-against-trump/#ixzz4apahdjIj