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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fillon stays in the race and the morning’s big betting move to

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  • Options
    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited March 2017

    kle4 said:

    I don't expect the Remoaners will enjoy this:

    The UK played and plays a unique role in the system. It is not in any meaningful sense “equal” to the other states of the “club” that it is leaving. Over the past three centuries – from the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713, through the 18th-century European balance of power, the Treaty of Vienna in 1815, the Versailles Treaty of 1919, to the 1945 settlement and beyond – Britain has been central to the European order, far more than any other power. This remains true today, because the EU depends entirely on Nato, of which Britain is the dominant European member, for its security.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/03/world-after-brexit

    Blimey that's a long piece. Well written, acknowledging some of the difficulties we face but seems optimistic. I hope it is right about our opportunities and the state of our union long term.
    He wins a trolling prize for this sentence:

    The EU may be a club and it can make whatever rules it likes, but it should never forget that the Anglo-Americans own the freehold of the property on which the club is built.

    On the whole a fanciful article based on a misreading of Trump combined with a rose-tinted view of the UK. The author clearly longs for the days when men, born in Dublin, like him could stand up at the despatch box and send gunboats to China.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90ctO0k3Viw

    Well who would have guessed you would not agree with that article.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,119

    The UK would be unable to uphold its security guarantees in Nato if those being protected were engaged in a vicious war against British livelihoods.

    Remind me which country withdrew their forces from NATO soon after the UK was vetoed from entering the EEC in the first place?
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    @youngvulgarian: A picture of Fillon fell from the wall of his HQ and they can't put it back up. As heavy-handed metaphors go...‬

    https://twitter.com/Figarat/status/836885582332715008
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,119
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    I don't expect the Remoaners will enjoy this:

    The UK played and plays a unique role in the system. It is not in any meaningful sense “equal” to the other states of the “club” that it is leaving. Over the past three centuries – from the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713, through the 18th-century European balance of power, the Treaty of Vienna in 1815, the Versailles Treaty of 1919, to the 1945 settlement and beyond – Britain has been central to the European order, far more than any other power. This remains true today, because the EU depends entirely on Nato, of which Britain is the dominant European member, for its security.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/03/world-after-brexit

    Blimey that's a long piece. Well written, acknowledging some of the difficulties we face but seems optimistic. I hope it is right about our opportunities and the state of our union long term.
    He wins a trolling prize for this sentence:

    The EU may be a club and it can make whatever rules it likes, but it should never forget that the Anglo-Americans own the freehold of the property on which the club is built.

    On the whole a fanciful article based on a misreading of Trump combined with a rose-tinted view of the UK. The author clearly longs for the days when men, born in Dublin, like him could stand up at the despatch box and send gunboats to China.
    The commenter clearly longs for the days when dribbling imbeciles, born in England, like him, could stand in the central square of Antwerp with his Morrisons own-range underpants on his head and say "I am a European"
    Touché. :)
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2017
    SeanT said:
    Yes, and for a precise and devastating reason: that Fillon had previously promised he'd withdraw if a formal examination of his case was initiated by the juge d'instruction. I agree with you that Fillon's position looks very precarious, notwithstanding his bluster this morning.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    FPT

    Surely the main takeaway from the Singapore Deportation case is not the ins and outs of her sad story (mistake? Stupidity? Mendacity? all three?) but the fake spin placed on it, especially by leftwing media. Starting with Buzzfeed, then Channel 4 News, The Indy, all reported she'd been "living in Britain for nearly 30 years."

    This was a complete and outright lie, but it is this which made the story seem so shocking and outrageous, and which made it go viral.

    It is a classic piece of Fake News. Make up some story which people WANT to believe is true: as it makes them feel righteously outraged. By the time reality emerges, no one notices.

    Both the Left and Right are guilty of this, the internet amplifies it enormously, and everyone suffers, in the end.

    Good point. It might be my imagination, but I've thought that The Guardian has been a lot more punctilious in recent months - even, say, pieces not likely to portray Trump in a good light, have contained caveats and efforts to avoid lazy ambiguities. Perhaps they realize that the situation is becoming serious, and that it's vital to describe the facts as they are, not as they or their readership would prefer them to be. This is imperative: if the pernicious 'false news' meme spreads to absolutely everything, then the very concept of truth itself will be in jeopardy. Chaos would ensue.
    Absolutely. The Guardian is actually getting better. This case is an example: their headline was "woman married to Brit for 27 years is deported" etc etc. Which is clearly emotive, but also factually correct.

    They didn't go the Buzzfeed, Indy route.

    The most alarming example of Fake News in this case is perhaps Channel 4 news. Their headline is from two days ago. They don't even have the excuse of making a mistake as a story was just emerging. It was already known weeks ago that she'd spent most of the last 30 years in Singapore.

    Yet they still went with the Fake News clickbaity bullshit. And this from a news company which prides itself on "fact-checking".
    Doesn't this fake news nonsense show there will always be a place for quality journalists?
    Or even people who think? When this story first came out among the tut-tutting and hand wringing there were several on here who pointed out that we'd only had one side of the story (and a false one at that) and 'there was probably more to it'....
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Sometimes ambition bites. I wonder whether any action would be underway against the Fillons had he not chosen to run for the Presidency.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    MTimT said:

    Sometimes ambition bites. I wonder whether any action would be underway against the Fillons had he not chosen to run for the Presidency.

    You're clearly new to French politics if you have any doubt on that point!
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    Allah bless Fillon and the French

    Today has been epic on a betting front.

    Though it was like pining a tail on a donkey at times.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Allah bless Fillon and the French

    Today has been epic on a betting front.

    Though it was like pining a tail on a donkey at times.

    More like riding a bucking bronco.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Emily Thornberry seems to get under Theresa May's skin. Another low blow from TM today.

    Rather like Ed Balls and Cameron. Didn't work for Ed too well.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785

    The UK would be unable to uphold its security guarantees in Nato if those being protected were engaged in a vicious war against British livelihoods.

    Remind me which country withdrew their forces from NATO soon after the UK was vetoed from entering the EEC in the first place?
    The same one that came crawling back 43 years later?
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).

    The quasi AV system that the French use should stop Le Pen.

    Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.

    Cf Spain 2004
    Should but she is already on 40% in some polls for the runoff, Fillon is now probably fatally damaged and the Russians may well have more information on Macron's personal life they will wait to release until he is head to head with Le Pen
    It would have to be pretty explosive gossip to kill off Macron and elect Le Pen. Because half of France is literally terrified of the FN
    Macron is another open-door immigration type. There will be people with strong views against that who wont necessarily admit it to a pollster. If the news of his affair is substantiated it will leave the muslim vote with an interesting choice on their hands!
    Although the FN has done very poorly relative to its opinion poll rating in the recent past (see 2015), which is the complete opposite of most nationalist parties in Europe.
    Possibly because unlike in other EU countries FN is more a party of the young voter, whereas UKIP/AFD etc tend to have their vote concentrated in older voters, and as we all know, younger voters fill in online polls but can't be bothered to vote.
    Le Pen actually gets her strongest support from the middle aged, it is Macron who gets his highest support from the young and Fillon gets his biggest support from pensioners
    I wonder if this meme that the young don't bother to vote is a universal trait or something specific to a more limited club of countries.

    I was talking to a Brazilian colleague the other day, who was talking about one of the candidate's strong support in the young, and trotted out the meme. He was baffled, and maintained that, at least in Brazil, the young vote with as much if not more passion than other age groups.

    I have not bothered to check whether he is correct in stating that or not, but it does seem to me that we should check such matters ourselves before assuming that meme applies to other countries.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    edited March 2017

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    FPT

    Surely the main takeaway from the Singapore Deportation case is not the ins and outs of her sad story (mistake? Stupidity? Mendacity? all three?) but the fake spin placed on it, especially by leftwing media. Starting with Buzzfeed, then Channel 4 News, The Indy, all reported she'd been "living in Britain for nearly 30 years."

    This was a complete and outright lie, but it is this which made the story seem so shocking and outrageous, and which made it go viral.

    It is a classic piece of Fake News. Make up some story which people WANT to believe is true: as it makes them feel righteously outraged. By the time reality emerges, no one notices.

    Both the Left and Right are guilty of this, the internet amplifies it enormously, and everyone suffers, in the end.

    Good point. It might be my imagination, but I've thought that The Guardian has been a lot more punctilious in recent months - even, say, pieces not likely to portray Trump in a good light, have contained caveats and efforts to avoid lazy ambiguities. Perhaps they realize that the situation is becoming serious, and that it's vital to describe the facts as they are, not as they or their readership would prefer them to be. This is imperative: if the pernicious 'false news' meme spreads to absolutely everything, then the very concept of truth itself will be in jeopardy. Chaos would ensue.
    Absolutely. The Guardian is actually getting better. This case is an example: their headline was "woman married to Brit for 27 years is deported" etc etc. Which is clearly emotive, but also factually correct.

    They didn't go the Buzzfeed, Indy route.

    The most alarming example of Fake News in this case is perhaps Channel 4 news. Their headline is from two days ago. They don't even have the excuse of making a mistake as a story was just emerging. It was already known weeks ago that she'd spent most of the last 30 years in Singapore.

    Yet they still went with the Fake News clickbaity bullshit. And this from a news company which prides itself on "fact-checking".
    Doesn't this fake news nonsense show there will always be a place for quality journalists?
    Or even people who think? When this story first came out among the tut-tutting and hand wringing there were several on here who pointed out that we'd only had one side of the story (and a false one at that) and 'there was probably more to it'....
    Posters who link to fake news should be sin binned!
  • Options

    Allah bless Fillon and the French

    Today has been epic on a betting front.

    Though it was like pining a tail on a donkey at times.

    More like riding a bucking bronco.
    I do feel sorry for the non French speaking punters though.
  • Options
    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    SeanT said:

    My schoolboy French is just good enough to see how quietly lethal this is.

    https://twitter.com/afpfr/status/836932205926580228

    Sounds like un homme sérieux.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:
    Yes, and for a precise and devastating reason: that Fillon had previously promised he'd withdraw if a formal examination of his case was initiated. I agree with you that Fillon's position looks very precarious, notwithstanding his bluster this morning.
    Yes, I think he probably have to withdraw, because who would want to be closely associated with such a tainted candidate? Who will eagerly join his team, make his case, give him money?
    Fillon has lied to his inner circle. He would clearly have no problem standing in front of the French people and telling them a great big bare-faced lie.

    Should make him a shoo-in...
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,775

    I don't expect the Remoaners will enjoy this:

    The UK played and plays a unique role in the system. It is not in any meaningful sense “equal” to the other states of the “club” that it is leaving. Over the past three centuries – from the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713, through the 18th-century European balance of power, the Treaty of Vienna in 1815, the Versailles Treaty of 1919, to the 1945 settlement and beyond – Britain has been central to the European order, far more than any other power. This remains true today, because the EU depends entirely on Nato, of which Britain is the dominant European member, for its security.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/03/world-after-brexit

    It's a valid argument up to a point. The security card is one the UK can play with the EU. It ignores the fact the UK is dependent on the EU to a much greater extent for its economic well-being. We're divorcing the EU (and incidentally it's unusual to describe your divorce as "a success" - "a relief" maybe) but we're still sharing the house (or more precisely a continent). We have just one room in that house while the EU is spread out over the remaining three floors. We have to negotiate access to the bathroom and kitchen when we could just walk in before.

    Which is my big issue with Brexit.
  • Options
    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:
    Yes, and for a precise and devastating reason: that Fillon had previously promised he'd withdraw if a formal examination of his case was initiated. I agree with you that Fillon's position looks very precarious, notwithstanding his bluster this morning.
    Yes, I think he probably have to withdraw, because who would want to be closely associated with such a tainted candidate? Who will eagerly join his team, make his case, give him money?
    Also it would be a disaster for LR if it got close to the vote, say mid-April and the media saw him being helping into the back of a police van in handcuffs. No time to select, let alone promote a new candidate.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,119
    I'd expect the polls to show Macron in first place for round 1 shortly. Perhaps the biggest risk for him is that left wingers could get complacent that round 2 will not be Fillon-Le Pen and end up splitting the vote in a repeat of the Jospin debacle.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/836895385260019713
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Loving Mick Cash on Daily Politics. Why is it that Union leaders have such a specific accent. Reminds me of "The People's Front of Judea."
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited March 2017

    I do feel sorry for the non French speaking punters though.

    (Gallic shrug of the shoulders) Tant pis pour eux!
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Macron odds-on on Betfair.
    Dupont-Aignan in to 300/420, if people could continue to back him that would be great, ta.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    FF43 said:

    I don't expect the Remoaners will enjoy this:

    The UK played and plays a unique role in the system. It is not in any meaningful sense “equal” to the other states of the “club” that it is leaving. Over the past three centuries – from the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713, through the 18th-century European balance of power, the Treaty of Vienna in 1815, the Versailles Treaty of 1919, to the 1945 settlement and beyond – Britain has been central to the European order, far more than any other power. This remains true today, because the EU depends entirely on Nato, of which Britain is the dominant European member, for its security.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/03/world-after-brexit

    It's a valid argument up to a point. The security card is one the UK can play with the EU. It ignores the fact the UK is dependent on the EU to a much greater extent for its economic well-being. We're divorcing the EU (and incidentally it's unusual to describe your divorce as "a success" - "a relief" maybe) but we're still sharing the house (or more precisely a continent). We have just one room in that house while the EU is spread out over the remaining three floors. We have to negotiate access to the bathroom and kitchen when we could just walk in before.

    Which is my big issue with Brexit.
    Your illustration does invite the idea that if they don't allow us in, we will just crap in their hallways and piss through their letterboxes....
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    Dixie said:

    Loving Mick Cash on Daily Politics. Why is it that Union leaders have such a specific accent. Reminds me of "The People's Front of Judea."

    Like police officers who seem to talk like this:

    I was proceeding in a southerly direction when I when I was forced to quickly exit the vehicle having ascertained the precise location of the suspect's residence. I approached a member of the public, who indicated that I was in the correct locality but purported not to know the person or persons in question.

    Is it something they learn at Hendon ? :lol:
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    I do feel sorry for the non French speaking punters though.

    (Gallic shrug of the shoulders) Tant pis pour eux!
    Well if MPL wins it wont be long before AdiEU ;)
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,775
    SeanT said:

    My schoolboy French is just good enough to see how quietly lethal this is.

    https://twitter.com/afpfr/status/836932205926580228

    Will benefit both Me Pen and Macron in the first round I think. Question whether it will also boost le Pen in the second round if Macron gets through. Certainly will if Fillon surprisingly makes it.

    LE Pen has name recognition AND is aloof from the murk. Good position to be in.
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited March 2017
    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    My schoolboy French is just good enough to see how quietly lethal this is.

    https://twitter.com/afpfr/status/836932205926580228

    Will benefit both Me Pen and Macron in the first round I think. Question whether it will also boost le Pen in the second round if Macron gets through. Certainly will if Fillon surprisingly makes it.

    LE Pen has name recognition AND is aloof from the murk. Good position to be in.
    and for good measure some idiots think it's the right time to try and indict her for being unkind to ISIS, I am not sure that is going to reduce her voter appeal in the slightest.
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221

    Dixie said:

    Loving Mick Cash on Daily Politics. Why is it that Union leaders have such a specific accent. Reminds me of "The People's Front of Judea."

    Like police officers who seem to talk like this:

    I was proceeding in a southerly direction when I when I was forced to quickly exit the vehicle having ascertained the precise location of the suspect's residence. I approached a member of the public, who indicated that I was in the correct locality but purported not to know the person or persons in question.

    Is it something they learn at Hendon ? :lol:
    LOL. Spot on. And London black cab taxi drivers have their version of 'cockney.' I can't explain the difference, but I know a black cabbie driver immediately.

  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,775

    FF43 said:

    I don't expect the Remoaners will enjoy this:

    The UK played and plays a unique role in the system. It is not in any meaningful sense “equal” to the other states of the “club” that it is leaving. Over the past three centuries – from the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713, through the 18th-century European balance of power, the Treaty of Vienna in 1815, the Versailles Treaty of 1919, to the 1945 settlement and beyond – Britain has been central to the European order, far more than any other power. This remains true today, because the EU depends entirely on Nato, of which Britain is the dominant European member, for its security.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/03/world-after-brexit

    It's a valid argument up to a point. The security card is one the UK can play with the EU. It ignores the fact the UK is dependent on the EU to a much greater extent for its economic well-being. We're divorcing the EU (and incidentally it's unusual to describe your divorce as "a success" - "a relief" maybe) but we're still sharing the house (or more precisely a continent). We have just one room in that house while the EU is spread out over the remaining three floors. We have to negotiate access to the bathroom and kitchen when we could just walk in before.

    Which is my big issue with Brexit.
    Your illustration does invite the idea that if they don't allow us in, we will just crap in their hallways and piss through their letterboxes....
    I didn't think we could stretch the metaphor that far. Actually the Article 50 negotiations will to some extent revolve around that imo. I expect a deal where we can only use the bathroom twice a day when no-one else is using it. And don't switch on the heating.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Thanks M. Fillon - I matched at 12/1 whilst you were playing with a toy tractor....
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894
    edited March 2017
    FPT TSE/David Evershed. All things French....

    Thanks for the clip of Carla Bruni. I didn't realize how similar she was to the great Francoise Hardy but without the voice

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aLoezucIzk
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    I do feel sorry for the non French speaking punters though.

    (Gallic shrug of the shoulders) Tant pis pour eux!
    Well if MPL wins it wont be long before AdiEU ;)
    That has to be the best "exit" portmanteau yet...
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    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    SeanT said:

    This guy is fascinating, even-handed and bold. He's a citizen journalist who took up that offer to go see if Malmo or other places in Sweden really were "no-go", or unusually dangerous, as Trump claimed.

    /twitter.com/Timcast/status/836934364772589569

    At first he was skeptical. Now he's much more doubtful. As you can see.

    REFLECTIONS ON THE REVOLUTION IN EUROPE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Made a tidy £65 profit off the Juppe surge this morning. He was available at the crazy odds of 460 on Monday.

    So I'm happy.

    £65 makes you happy? Your wife married a cheap date :wink:
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Charles said:

    Made a tidy £65 profit off the Juppe surge this morning. He was available at the crazy odds of 460 on Monday.

    So I'm happy.

    £65 makes you happy? Your wife married a cheap date :wink:
    The Micawber Principle. :)
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    FPT

    Surely the main takeaway from the Singapore Deportation case is not the ins and outs of her sad story (mistake? Stupidity? Mendacity? all three?) but the fake spin placed on it, especially by leftwing media. Starting with Buzzfeed, then Channel 4 News, The Indy, all reported she'd been "living in Britain for nearly 30 years."

    This was a complete and outright lie, but it is this which made the story seem so shocking and outrageous, and which made it go viral.

    It is a classic piece of Fake News. Make up some story which people WANT to believe is true: as it makes them feel righteously outraged. By the time reality emerges, no one notices.

    Both the Left and Right are guilty of this, the internet amplifies it enormously, and everyone suffers, in the end.

    Good point. It might be my imagination, but I've thought that The Guardian has been a lot more punctilious in recent months - even, say, pieces not likely to portray Trump in a good light, have contained caveats and efforts to avoid lazy ambiguities. Perhaps they realize that the situation is becoming serious, and that it's vital to describe the facts as they are, not as they or their readership would prefer them to be. This is imperative: if the pernicious 'false news' meme spreads to absolutely everything, then the very concept of truth itself will be in jeopardy. Chaos would ensue.
    Absolutely. The Guardian is actually getting better. This case is an example: their headline was "woman married to Brit for 27 years is deported" etc etc. Which is clearly emotive, but also factually correct.

    They didn't go the Buzzfeed, Indy route.

    The most alarming example of Fake News in this case is perhaps Channel 4 news. Their headline is from two days ago. They don't even have the excuse of making a mistake as a story was just emerging. It was already known weeks ago that she'd spent most of the last 30 years in Singapore.

    Yet they still went with the Fake News clickbaity bullshit. And this from a news company which prides itself on "fact-checking".
    Doesn't this fake news nonsense show there will always be a place for quality journalists?
    Or even people who think? When this story first came out among the tut-tutting and hand wringing there were several on here who pointed out that we'd only had one side of the story (and a false one at that) and 'there was probably more to it'....
    Indeed. I seem to remember much hand wringing from Meeks.

    Incidentally, any sign of MarkSenior since the by-elections?
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,883
    Bonne après-midi tout le monde :)

    To move on from matters French to more bread and butter issues:

    http://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2017/02/cipfa-and-ifg-issue-pre-budget-warning-over-public-service-sustainability?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=

    Interesting piece from CIPFA and the Institute for Government. It is all about "crisis, cash, repeat" it seems. The debate on adequate long term funding of adult social care is shut down almost at once by the Daily Mail but that achieves nothing.

    I've heard suggestions of differential NI rates based on age and the Thatcherite argument that everyone should be personally responsible for adequate provision for their post-working life but a growing ageing population impacts on so many levels - the provision of appropriate and adequate housing, transport, general health facilities, social opportunities etc.

    Are we as a country considering how to deal with the rising elderly population over the next 20-30 years - clearly not, if we can't agree on some basics.
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    Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    FF43 said:

    I don't expect the Remoaners will enjoy this:

    The UK played and plays a unique role in the system. It is not in any meaningful sense “equal” to the other states of the “club” that it is leaving. Over the past three centuries – from the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713, through the 18th-century European balance of power, the Treaty of Vienna in 1815, the Versailles Treaty of 1919, to the 1945 settlement and beyond – Britain has been central to the European order, far more than any other power. This remains true today, because the EU depends entirely on Nato, of which Britain is the dominant European member, for its security.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/03/world-after-brexit

    It's a valid argument up to a point. The security card is one the UK can play with the EU. It ignores the fact the UK is dependent on the EU to a much greater extent for its economic well-being. We're divorcing the EU (and incidentally it's unusual to describe your divorce as "a success" - "a relief" maybe) but we're still sharing the house (or more precisely a continent). We have just one room in that house while the EU is spread out over the remaining three floors. We have to negotiate access to the bathroom and kitchen when we could just walk in before.

    Which is my big issue with Brexit.
    That has to win some kind of prize as Worst Analogy of the Month.

    If we are sharing a building, it's an apartment block. Brexit is quibbling over the split of the service charge and access to the (previously) communal gardens.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059

    Macron odds-on on Betfair.
    Dupont-Aignan in to 300/420, if people could continue to back him that would be great, ta.

    I have £2 on M. D-A. I don't expect it to win, but I must admit to finding him a lot palatable candidate than MLP.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894
    SeanT said:

    This guy is fascinating, even-handed and bold. He's a citizen journalist who took up that offer to go see if Malmo or other places in Sweden really were "no-go", or unusually dangerous, as Trump claimed.

    https://twitter.com/Timcast/status/836934364772589569

    At first he was skeptical. Now he's much more doubtful. As you can see.

    If you've even been no further than Coconut Grove in Miami exactly the same thing applies. There's no direction you can walk that anyone would describe as safe. And it's a fashionable area.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    kle4 said:

    I don't expect the Remoaners will enjoy this:

    The UK played and plays a unique role in the system. It is not in any meaningful sense “equal” to the other states of the “club” that it is leaving. Over the past three centuries – from the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713, through the 18th-century European balance of power, the Treaty of Vienna in 1815, the Versailles Treaty of 1919, to the 1945 settlement and beyond – Britain has been central to the European order, far more than any other power. This remains true today, because the EU depends entirely on Nato, of which Britain is the dominant European member, for its security.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/03/world-after-brexit

    Blimey that's a long piece. Well written, acknowledging some of the difficulties we face but seems optimistic. I hope it is right about our opportunities and the state of our union long term.
    On trade, the EU would at first have the upper hand; indeed, a trade war is just about the only thing that Brussels can wage effectively.

    Perhaps we could call it the Continental System? After all that worked really well.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Charles said:

    Made a tidy £65 profit off the Juppe surge this morning. He was available at the crazy odds of 460 on Monday.

    So I'm happy.

    £65 makes you happy? Your wife married a cheap date :wink:
    65 quid? LUXURY!

    I'm more chuffed with the £15 quid all green I've added this morning than I am with the new catalogue we've successfully released today.

    There is something oddly satisfying about gambling winnings....
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Mortimer said:


    Indeed. I seem to remember much hand wringing from Meeks.

    Incidentally, any sign of MarkSenior since the by-elections?

    If you can find a single quote of mine that refers to her living in Britain for 30 years, I'd be much obliged.

    The whataboutery from the loony Leaver callous cretins has been something to behold. The delight with which they want to deport a woman who has a husband of 27 years, children and a grandchild in Britain is educational if not edifying.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    FF43 said:

    I don't expect the Remoaners will enjoy this:

    The UK played and plays a unique role in the system. It is not in any meaningful sense “equal” to the other states of the “club” that it is leaving. Over the past three centuries – from the Treaty of Utrecht in 1713, through the 18th-century European balance of power, the Treaty of Vienna in 1815, the Versailles Treaty of 1919, to the 1945 settlement and beyond – Britain has been central to the European order, far more than any other power. This remains true today, because the EU depends entirely on Nato, of which Britain is the dominant European member, for its security.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/03/world-after-brexit

    It's a valid argument up to a point. The security card is one the UK can play with the EU. It ignores the fact the UK is dependent on the EU to a much greater extent for its economic well-being. We're divorcing the EU (and incidentally it's unusual to describe your divorce as "a success" - "a relief" maybe) but we're still sharing the house (or more precisely a continent). We have just one room in that house while the EU is spread out over the remaining three floors. We have to negotiate access to the bathroom and kitchen when we could just walk in before.

    Which is my big issue with Brexit.
    The upside, of course, being is that our one room is the front hall and we have complete liberty to hang out with the pretty girl down the street, whereas previously we were locked inside.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roger said:

    FPT TSE/David Evershed. All things French....

    Thanks for the clip of Carla Bruni. I didn't realize how similar she was to the great Francoise Hardy but without the voice

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aLoezucIzk

    Ms Hardy is one of my all times favs! Simply lovely voice
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    FPT

    This is precisely what I have been trying to do since the referendum using this sort of data and whilst the national tally makes sense (Con 40%, Lab 27%, Lib Dem 9%, Green 5%, UKIP 14%, Others 5%) when I apply it to each of the local counting areas it comes out as complete nonsense, perhaps if I explain what I am doing people can tell me where I am going wrong.

    In Adur, there were 16,914 REMAIN votes and 20,315 LEAVE votes. Using the polls I allocate the REMAIN votes in the proportions listed above and the LEAVE votes in the same proportions. This tells me that 4,736 REMAIN voters were Conservative and 10,361 LEAVE voters were Conservative for a total of 15,097 Conservative voters in Adur. Doing the same for each of the parties I come up with the following

    Con 15,097 (41%), Lab 9,610 (26%), Lib Dem 3,316 (9%), Green 1,895 (5%), UKIP 5,451 (15%)

    which sounds reasonable, but then you come to a place like Durham (Lab 49%, Con 25%, UKIP 16% at the general election) which comes out with the same vote shares.

    Please use the swings rather than the actual spread %'s.
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    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    Mortimer said:


    Indeed. I seem to remember much hand wringing from Meeks.

    Incidentally, any sign of MarkSenior since the by-elections?

    If you can find a single quote of mine that refers to her living in Britain for 30 years, I'd be much obliged.

    The whataboutery from the loony Leaver callous cretins has been something to behold. The delight with which they want to deport a woman who has a husband of 27 years, children and a grandchild in Britain is educational if not edifying.
    Anyone remember that post a month or two ago about not calling each other names ? Some people getting offended about being called remoaners ? We still seems to be getting bouts of Tourette's from some members, but since its directed at leavers I assume its completely acceptable ?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Well today was a good day to be in meetings and miss the betting fun! I never did understand the French, and I still don't.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited March 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).

    The quasi AV system that the French use should stop Le Pen.

    Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.

    Cf Spain 2004
    Should but she is already on 40% in some polls for the runoff, Fillon is now probably fatally damaged and the Russians may well have more information on Macron's personal life they will wait to release until he is head to head with Le Pen
    What ? He is married to an older woman ? Did you never see the movie "In praise of ...."
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    Mortimer said:


    Indeed. I seem to remember much hand wringing from Meeks.

    Incidentally, any sign of MarkSenior since the by-elections?

    If you can find a single quote of mine that refers to her living in Britain for 30 years, I'd be much obliged.

    The whataboutery from the loony Leaver callous cretins has been something to behold. The delight with which they want to deport a woman who has a husband of 27 years, children and a grandchild in Britain is educational if not edifying.
    I have not made a single comment about this, but I do just observe that you were jumping up and down about criticism of judges and those doing it showing no respect for the rule of law. And yet here you are, criticising those who support the rule of law.
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    Sandpit said:

    Well today was a good day to be in meetings and miss the betting fun! I never did understand the French, and I still don't.

    Un pays de collaborateurs.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Mortimer said:


    Indeed. I seem to remember much hand wringing from Meeks.

    Incidentally, any sign of MarkSenior since the by-elections?

    If you can find a single quote of mine that refers to her living in Britain for 30 years, I'd be much obliged.

    The whataboutery from the loony Leaver callous cretins has been something to behold. The delight with which they want to deport a woman who has a husband of 27 years, children and a grandchild in Britain is educational if not edifying.
    I have not made a single comment about this, but I do just observe that you were jumping up and down about criticism of judges and those doing it showing no respect for the rule of law. And yet here you are, criticising those who support the rule of law.
    No, I'm criticising people who don't understand what the rule of law is. There is nothing in the rule of law that prevented the exercise of discretion on this woman's behalf.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059
    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    SeanT said:

    This guy is fascinating, even-handed and bold. He's a citizen journalist who took up that offer to go see if Malmo or other places in Sweden really were "no-go", or unusually dangerous, as Trump claimed.

    https://twitter.com/Timcast/status/836934364772589569

    At first he was skeptical. Now he's much more doubtful. As you can see.

    If you've even been no further than Coconut Grove in Miami exactly the same thing applies. There's no direction you can walk that anyone would describe as safe. And it's a fashionable area.
    So the Swedes are meant to be happy that parts of their previously ultra-safe, ultra-liberal country are being turned into dangerous American suburbs (even without US gun laws), by the idiotic mass importation of immigrants.

    Plus they get to be, literally, the rape capital of the world! Well done Sweden.

    Trump was right.

    Katie Hopkins (yes yes yes) went there as well.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4269576/KATIE-HOPKINS-reports-Scandi-lib-paradise-Sweden.html

    I don't think Sweden really is the rape capital of the world. It is merely the place where the sexual assault laws are the broadest ("sex by surprise", for example).
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,380


    The whataboutery from the loony Leaver callous cretins has been something to behold.

    LEAVE 494
    REMAIN 122

    :innocent:
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    edited March 2017

    Mortimer said:


    Indeed. I seem to remember much hand wringing from Meeks.

    Incidentally, any sign of MarkSenior since the by-elections?

    If you can find a single quote of mine that refers to her living in Britain for 30 years, I'd be much obliged.

    The whataboutery from the loony Leaver callous cretins has been something to behold. The delight with which they want to deport a woman who has a husband of 27 years, children and a grandchild in Britain is educational if not edifying.
    Anyone remember that post a month or two ago about not calling each other names ?
    Name callers generally have lost the argument.

    If they'd won, why would they be calling names?

    Mrs Clelland 'who has no family in Singapore' is staying with one of her two sisters. As she's younger & fitter than her husband, why doesn't he join her there?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    I'd expect the polls to show Macron in first place for round 1 shortly. Perhaps the biggest risk for him is that left wingers could get complacent that round 2 will not be Fillon-Le Pen and end up splitting the vote in a repeat of the Jospin debacle.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/836895385260019713

    Dunno. It's possible a lot of French rightwingers will, in their disgust at Fillon, turn to Le Pen.

    If French Twitter is anything to go by (quite possibly not) the French Right are outraged at Fillion, and think he is destroying their chances, and maybe their brand.

    Even if Fillon clings on, it is surely Le Pen v Macron.
    Even if every one of Fillon supporters back Le Pen, she gets 46%.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894
    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    FPT TSE/David Evershed. All things French....

    Thanks for the clip of Carla Bruni. I didn't realize how similar she was to the great Francoise Hardy but without the voice

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aLoezucIzk

    Ms Hardy is one of my all times favs! Simply lovely voice
    And one of her best tracks.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    edited March 2017
    Much as I bang on about "Reflections on the Revolution in Europe" ( it makes the points that SeanT links to on here, but was written in 2009) I am such a crap reader that I am only on p226 after a year!

    But, as I am here, p226 contains the line

    "The researchers Tariq Modood and Richard Bethoud have shown that only 1% of British Bangladeshis and Pakistanis have white partners, vs 20% of Afro Caribbeans"

    Some on here dispute this is a measure of integration, but those are the stats
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549


    The whataboutery from the loony Leaver callous cretins has been something to behold.

    LEAVE 494
    REMAIN 122

    :innocent:
    If there was a poll today, you will find that Remain has edged ahead.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    dr_spyn said:
    So he does live in somewhere close to reality then.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,380

    Sandpit said:

    Well today was a good day to be in meetings and miss the betting fun! I never did understand the French, and I still don't.

    Un pays de collaborateurs.
    [shrugging shoulders] Mais je ne comprends pas les Français!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,380
    surbiton said:


    The whataboutery from the loony Leaver callous cretins has been something to behold.

    LEAVE 494
    REMAIN 122

    :innocent:
    If there was a poll today, you will find that Remain has edged ahead.
    The figures I quote were from a recent vote among MPs :)
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,380
    isam said:

    Much as I bang on about "Reflections on the Revolution in Europe" ( it makes the points that SeanT links to on here, but was written in 2009) I am such a crap reader that I am only on p226 after a year!

    But, as I am here, p226 contains the line

    "The researchers Tariq Modood and Richard Bethoud have shown that only 1% of British Bangladeshis and Pakistanis have white partners, vs 20% of Afro Caribbeans"

    Some on here dispute this is a measure of integration, but those are the stats

    I was kind of right (I said something similar a few weeks back).
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • Options
    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited March 2017

    Mortimer said:


    Indeed. I seem to remember much hand wringing from Meeks.

    Incidentally, any sign of MarkSenior since the by-elections?

    If you can find a single quote of mine that refers to her living in Britain for 30 years, I'd be much obliged.

    The whataboutery from the loony Leaver callous cretins has been something to behold. The delight with which they want to deport a woman who has a husband of 27 years, children and a grandchild in Britain is educational if not edifying.
    I have not made a single comment about this, but I do just observe that you were jumping up and down about criticism of judges and those doing it showing no respect for the rule of law. And yet here you are, criticising those who support the rule of law.
    No, I'm criticising people who don't understand what the rule of law is. There is nothing in the rule of law that prevented the exercise of discretion on this woman's behalf.
    Which part of the entry clearance process allows for discretion to be exercised ?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894
    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    SeanT said:

    This guy is fascinating, even-handed and bold. He's a citizen journalist who took up that offer to go see if Malmo or other places in Sweden really were "no-go", or unusually dangerous, as Trump claimed.

    https://twitter.com/Timcast/status/836934364772589569

    At first he was skeptical. Now he's much more doubtful. As you can see.

    If you've even been no further than Coconut Grove in Miami exactly the same thing applies. There's no direction you can walk that anyone would describe as safe. And it's a fashionable area.
    So the Swedes are meant to be happy that parts of their previously ultra-safe, ultra-liberal country are being turned into dangerous American suburbs (even without US gun laws), by the idiotic mass importation of immigrants.

    Plus they get to be, literally, the rape capital of the world! Well done Sweden.

    Trump was right.

    Katie Hopkins (yes yes yes) went there as well.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4269576/KATIE-HOPKINS-reports-Scandi-lib-paradise-Sweden.html

    That'll be 'honest' Katie Hopkins.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/article-4046558/The-Mahmood-family-apology.html
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,919
    SeanT said:

    Mortimer said:


    Indeed. I seem to remember much hand wringing from Meeks.

    Incidentally, any sign of MarkSenior since the by-elections?

    If you can find a single quote of mine that refers to her living in Britain for 30 years, I'd be much obliged.

    The whataboutery from the loony Leaver callous cretins has been something to behold. The delight with which they want to deport a woman who has a husband of 27 years, children and a grandchild in Britain is educational if not edifying.
    I have not made a single comment about this, but I do just observe that you were jumping up and down about criticism of judges and those doing it showing no respect for the rule of law. And yet here you are, criticising those who support the rule of law.
    No, I'm criticising people who don't understand what the rule of law is. There is nothing in the rule of law that prevented the exercise of discretion on this woman's behalf.
    Read the case. She was given endless discretion. She overstayed visas for years, she was warned she might get deported several times, on and on.

    She could be a liar, she could just be dim, it is possible to feel sorry for her (as I do), but when you examine the timeline she was fortunate not to have been thrown out before, and never allowed to return.

    But why am I even bothering to argue with you. This is just another of your Brexit spaz-outs, metastasizing, tediously.

    Advice. Shove off to your beloved Hungary, and do us all a favour, before your lovely leader Orban closes the border to homosexuals as well as Muslims.

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2016/03/09/hungary-slammed-after-blocking-europe-wide-agreement-on-lgbt-rights/

    Coda.
    There may well be a case for exercising discretion in her favour.

    But, it's hard to argue that the immigration authorities have acted badly in this case, any more than a court bailiff is acting badly when he turns up to evict a tenant who has a possession order made against him.
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    surbiton said:


    The whataboutery from the loony Leaver callous cretins has been something to behold.

    LEAVE 494
    REMAIN 122

    :innocent:
    If there was a poll today, you will find that Remain has edged ahead.
    Nope. We saw the tracking poll a few days ago. It hasn't moved out of the margin of error since the referendum.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    How come these chaps got legal aid to appeal against deportation and the lady from Singapore didn't?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/04/senior-judge-slams-lawyers-obstructing-rochdale-child-sex-grooming/
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    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    edited March 2017
    Roger said:

    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    SeanT said:

    This guy is fascinating, even-handed and bold. He's a citizen journalist who took up that offer to go see if Malmo or other places in Sweden really were "no-go", or unusually dangerous, as Trump claimed.

    https://twitter.com/Timcast/status/836934364772589569

    At first he was skeptical. Now he's much more doubtful. As you can see.

    If you've even been no further than Coconut Grove in Miami exactly the same thing applies. There's no direction you can walk that anyone would describe as safe. And it's a fashionable area.
    So the Swedes are meant to be happy that parts of their previously ultra-safe, ultra-liberal country are being turned into dangerous American suburbs (even without US gun laws), by the idiotic mass importation of immigrants.

    Plus they get to be, literally, the rape capital of the world! Well done Sweden.

    Trump was right.

    Katie Hopkins (yes yes yes) went there as well.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4269576/KATIE-HOPKINS-reports-Scandi-lib-paradise-Sweden.html

    That'll be 'honest' Katie Hopkins.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/article-4046558/The-Mahmood-family-apology.html
    Oh! If a PBer posts fake news now, are to dismiss everything they say as unfounded bullshit?? That WOULD be fun! :smile:
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,289
    OGH just namechecked by Momentum Trumpton.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    isam said:

    How come these chaps got legal aid to appeal against deportation and the lady from Singapore didn't?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/04/senior-judge-slams-lawyers-obstructing-rochdale-child-sex-grooming/

    Because they're British? And for what ever reason, Mrs Clennell chose to remain Singaporean.

    Her appear rights ran out in mid-2014 so the Border Force has hardly been precipitous in deporting her.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited March 2017
    Given the average crossword compiler's sense of humour, I'm guessing this was done deliberately (but they'll never tell).

    https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/836946407202385920
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Mortimer said:

    isam said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    FPT

    Surely the main takeaway from the Singapore Deportation case is not the ins and outs of her sad story (mistake? Stupidity? Mendacity? all three?) but the fake spin placed on it, especially by leftwing media. Starting with Buzzfeed, then Channel 4 News, The Indy, all reported she'd been "living in Britain for nearly 30 years."

    This was a complete and outright lie, but it is this which made the story seem so shocking and outrageous, and which made it go viral.

    It is a classic piece of Fake News. Make up some story which people WANT to believe is true: as it makes them feel righteously outraged. By the time reality emerges, no one notices.

    Both the Left and Right are guilty of this, the internet amplifies it enormously, and everyone suffers, in the end.

    Good point. It might be my imagination, but I've thought that The Guardian has been a lot more punctilious in recent months - even, say, pieces not likely to portray Trump in a good light, have contained caveats and efforts to avoid lazy ambiguities. Perhaps they realize that the situation is becoming serious, and that it's vital to describe the facts as they are, not as they or their readership would prefer them to be. This is imperative: if the pernicious 'false news' meme spreads to absolutely everything, then the very concept of truth itself will be in jeopardy. Chaos would ensue.
    Absolutely. The Guardian is actually getting better. This case is an example: their headline was "woman married to Brit for 27 years is deported" etc etc. Which is clearly emotive, but also factually correct.

    They didn't go the Buzzfeed, Indy route.

    The most alarming example of Fake News in this case is perhaps Channel 4 news. Their headline is from two days ago. They don't even have the excuse of making a mistake as a story was just emerging. It was already known weeks ago that she'd spent most of the last 30 years in Singapore.

    Yet they still went with the Fake News clickbaity bullshit. And this from a news company which prides itself on "fact-checking".
    Doesn't this fake news nonsense show there will always be a place for quality journalists?
    Or even people who think? When this story first came out among the tut-tutting and hand wringing there were several on here who pointed out that we'd only had one side of the story (and a false one at that) and 'there was probably more to it'....
    Indeed. I seem to remember much hand wringing from Meeks.

    Incidentally, any sign of MarkSenior since the by-elections?
    Last posted on 23rd Feb boasting about Tory losses in PCBEs...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,955
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mortimer said:


    Indeed. I seem to remember much hand wringing from Meeks.

    Incidentally, any sign of MarkSenior since the by-elections?

    If you can find a single quote of mine that refers to her living in Britain for 30 years, I'd be much obliged.

    The whataboutery from the loony Leaver callous cretins has been something to behold. The delight with which they want to deport a woman who has a husband of 27 years, children and a grandchild in Britain is educational if not edifying.
    I have not made a single comment about this, but I do just observe that you were jumping up and down about criticism of judges and those doing it showing no respect for the rule of law. And yet here you are, criticising those who support the rule of law.
    No, I'm criticising people who don't understand what the rule of law is. There is nothing in the rule of law that prevented the exercise of discretion on this woman's behalf.
    Read the case. She was given endless discretion. She overstayed visas for years, she was warned she might get deported several times, on and on.

    She could be a liar, she could just be dim, it is possible to feel sorry for her (as I do), but when you examine the timeline she was fortunate not to have been thrown out before, and never allowed to return.

    But why am I even bothering to argue with you. This is just another of your Brexit spaz-outs, metastasizing, tediously.

    Advice. Shove off to your beloved Hungary, and do us all a favour, before your lovely leader Orban closes the border to homosexuals as well as Muslims.

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2016/03/09/hungary-slammed-after-blocking-europe-wide-agreement-on-lgbt-rights/

    Coda.
    There may well be a case for exercising discretion in her favour.

    But, it's hard to argue that the immigration authorities have acted badly in this case, any more than a court bailiff is acting badly when he turns up to evict a tenant who has a possession order made against him.
    They may or may not have acted badly, but the purported en masse joy of loonies at seeing her deported is certainly not what I recall even from those who see no issue with the lack of exercise of discretion.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    rcs1000 said:

    Macron odds-on on Betfair.
    Dupont-Aignan in to 300/420, if people could continue to back him that would be great, ta.

    I have £2 on M. D-A. I don't expect it to win, but I must admit to finding him a lot palatable candidate than MLP.
    That's exactly where I am. If he becomes layable at a low enough price I might take some profit.
  • Options
    I've always said there was something fishy about Nicola Sturgeon
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    The clues in question, courtesy of fifteensquared.

    12 Ruling nationalist‘s way to encourage progress (8)

    ST[reet] [way] + URGE ON [encourage progress]

    14 Carmen is close to perfect for discriminating fellow (6)

    RAC [car men] IS + [perfec]T
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    edited March 2017

    isam said:

    How come these chaps got legal aid to appeal against deportation and the lady from Singapore didn't?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/04/senior-judge-slams-lawyers-obstructing-rochdale-child-sex-grooming/

    Because they're British? And for what ever reason, Mrs Clennell chose to remain Singaporean.

    Her appear rights ran out in mid-2014 so the Border Force has hardly been precipitous in deporting her.
    Oh are they, sorry my fault
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Happy St.David's day to our fellow welsh PB posters.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    If they'd won, why would they be calling names?

    Yes, why did the "winners" need to come up with names for those who have not drunk the Brexit Kool-Aid?
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    SeanT said:

    This guy is fascinating, even-handed and bold. He's a citizen journalist who took up that offer to go see if Malmo or other places in Sweden really were "no-go", or unusually dangerous, as Trump claimed.

    https://twitter.com/Timcast/status/836934364772589569

    At first he was skeptical. Now he's much more doubtful. As you can see.

    If you've even been no further than Coconut Grove in Miami exactly the same thing applies. There's no direction you can walk that anyone would describe as safe. And it's a fashionable area.
    So the Swedes are meant to be happy that parts of their previously ultra-safe, ultra-liberal country are being turned into dangerous American suburbs (even without US gun laws), by the idiotic mass importation of immigrants.

    Plus they get to be, literally, the rape capital of the world! Well done Sweden.

    Trump was right.

    Katie Hopkins (yes yes yes) went there as well.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4269576/KATIE-HOPKINS-reports-Scandi-lib-paradise-Sweden.html

    I don't think Sweden really is the rape capital of the world. It is merely the place where the sexual assault laws are the broadest ("sex by surprise", for example).
    Family member just back from Sweden. Lots of police watching, but doing nothing with lots of Immigrants hanging around at main thoroughfares. Girls have stopped going out alone. People are scared to to say anything, usual fear of racism. Liberal elite dominance allowing suppression of decent people.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mortimer said:


    Indeed. I seem to remember much hand wringing from Meeks.

    Incidentally, any sign of MarkSenior since the by-elections?

    If you can find a single quote of mine that refers to her living in Britain for 30 years, I'd be much obliged.

    The whataboutery from the loony Leaver callous cretins has been something to behold. The delight with which they want to deport a woman who has a husband of 27 years, children and a grandchild in Britain is educational if not edifying.
    I have not made a single comment about this, but I do just observe that you were jumping up and down about criticism of judges and those doing it showing no respect for the rule of law. And yet here you are, criticising those who support the rule of law.
    No, I'm criticising people who don't understand what the rule of law is. There is nothing in the rule of law that prevented the exercise of discretion on this woman's behalf.
    Read the case. She was given endless discretion. She overstayed visas for years, she was warned she might get deported several times, on and on.

    She could be a liar, she could just be dim, it is possible to feel sorry for her (as I do), but when you examine the timeline she was fortunate not to have been thrown out before, and never allowed to return.

    But why am I even bothering to argue with you. This is just another of your Brexit spaz-outs, metastasizing, tediously.

    Advice. Shove off to your beloved Hungary, and do us all a favour, before your lovely leader Orban closes the border to homosexuals as well as Muslims.

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2016/03/09/hungary-slammed-after-blocking-europe-wide-agreement-on-lgbt-rights/

    Coda.
    There may well be a case for exercising discretion in her favour.

    But, it's hard to argue that the immigration authorities have acted badly in this case, any more than a court bailiff is acting badly when he turns up to evict a tenant who has a possession order made against him.
    the purported en masse joy of loonies at seeing her deported is certainly not what I recall even from those who see no issue with the lack of exercise of discretion.
    Bad loser losing argument badly.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894
    HYUFD said:

    Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).

    The quasi AV system that the French use should stop Le Pen.

    Though I still think we're one terrorist attack from her becoming the resident of the Palais de l'Élysée.

    Cf Spain 2004
    Should but she is already on 40% in some polls for the runoff, Fillon is now probably fatally damaged and the Russians may well have more information on Macron's personal life they will wait to release until he is head to head with Le Pen
    Can you direct me to the poll that puts ML-P on 40%
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,380

    I've always said there was something fishy about Nicola Sturgeon

    Salmond Fishing in the Yemen?
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    FPT TSE/David Evershed. All things French....

    Thanks for the clip of Carla Bruni. I didn't realize how similar she was to the great Francoise Hardy but without the voice

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aLoezucIzk

    Ms Hardy is one of my all times favs! Simply lovely voice
    Un pays de collaborateurs.

    Imagine the song in German.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    Scott_P said:

    If they'd won, why would they be calling names?

    Yes, why did the "winners" need to come up with names for those who have not drunk the Brexit Kool-Aid?
    loony Leaver callous cretins
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    edited March 2017
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mortimer said:


    Indeed. I seem to remember much hand wringing from Meeks.

    Incidentally, any sign of MarkSenior since the by-elections?

    If you can find a single quote of mine that refers to her living in Britain for 30 years, I'd be much obliged.

    The whataboutery from the loony Leaver callous cretins has been something to behold. The delight with which they want to deport a woman who has a husband of 27 years, children and a grandchild in Britain is educational if not edifying.
    I have not made a single comment about this, but I do just observe that you were jumping up and down about criticism of judges and those doing it showing no respect for the rule of law. And yet here you are, criticising those who support the rule of law.
    No, I'm criticising people who don't understand what the rule of law is. There is nothing in the rule of law that prevented the exercise of discretion on this woman's behalf.
    Read the case. She was given endless discretion. She overstayed visas for years, she was warned she might get deported several times, on and on.

    She could be a liar, she could just be dim, it is possible to feel sorry for her (as I do), but when you examine the timeline she was fortunate not to have been thrown out before, and never allowed to return.

    But why am I even bothering to argue with you. This is just another of your Brexit spaz-outs, metastasizing, tediously.

    Advice. Shove off to your beloved Hungary, and do us all a favour, before your lovely leader Orban closes the border to homosexuals as well as Muslims.

    http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2016/03/09/hungary-slammed-after-blocking-europe-wide-agreement-on-lgbt-rights/

    Coda.
    There may well be a case for exercising discretion in her favour.

    But, it's hard to argue that the immigration authorities have acted badly in this case, any more than a court bailiff is acting badly when he turns up to evict a tenant who has a possession order made against him.
    They may or may not have acted badly, but the purported en masse joy of loonies at seeing her deported is certainly not what I recall even from those who see no issue with the lack of exercise of discretion.
    People horrified at broad brush labelling by their opponents are rarely shy of using it themselves
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,119

    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    FPT TSE/David Evershed. All things French....

    Thanks for the clip of Carla Bruni. I didn't realize how similar she was to the great Francoise Hardy but without the voice

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aLoezucIzk

    Ms Hardy is one of my all times favs! Simply lovely voice
    Un pays de collaborateurs.

    Imagine the song in German.
    Her best song in German:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mT1h_OXBNI
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    A Leaver supporting Britain.

    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/03/01/dyson_backs_britain_plc_with_25bn_ai_robotics_investment/?mt=1488380017674

    A guy who has real experience of what the EU is like...

    "Thirdly, and in a case that echoes the diesel emissions scandal, Dyson discovered that German rivals lower their power consumption when running an EU test, but double their power output in real-life use."
  • Options
    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    SeanT said:

    Dixie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    SeanT said:

    This guy is fascinating, even-handed and bold. He's a citizen journalist who took up that offer to go see if Malmo or other places in Sweden really were "no-go", or unusually dangerous, as Trump claimed.

    https://twitter.com/Timcast/status/836934364772589569

    At first he was skeptical. Now he's much more doubtful. As you can see.

    If you've even been no further than Coconut Grove in Miami exactly the same thing applies. There's no direction you can walk that anyone would describe as safe. And it's a fashionable area.
    So the Swedes are meant to be happy that parts of their previously ultra-safe, ultra-liberal country are being turned into dangerous American suburbs (even without US gun laws), by the idiotic mass importation of immigrants.

    Plus they get to be, literally, the rape capital of the world! Well done Sweden.

    Trump was right.

    Katie Hopkins (yes yes yes) went there as well.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4269576/KATIE-HOPKINS-reports-Scandi-lib-paradise-Sweden.html

    I don't think Sweden really is the rape capital of the world. It is merely the place where the sexual assault laws are the broadest ("sex by surprise", for example).
    Family member just back from Sweden. Lots of police watching, but doing nothing with lots of Immigrants hanging around at main thoroughfares. Girls have stopped going out alone. People are scared to to say anything, usual fear of racism. Liberal elite dominance allowing suppression of decent people.
    Here's Tim Pool again, his latest thoughts. And he was the one pouring scorn on the idea Sweden had "no-go" zones. Having been there, he's now admitting he was wrong.

    https://twitter.com/Timcast/status/836945458283102209
    Indeed. For those comfy Liberals who don't live in big cities on estates, they never see what their ignorance is doing to crush decent people. That's why i like Trump and Le Pen. they shine a light.
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Scott_P said:

    If they'd won, why would they be calling names?

    Yes, why did the "winners" need to come up with names for those who have not drunk the Brexit Kool-Aid?
    loony Leaver callous cretins
    Don't forget 'carrot crunchers'. I think that was another one anyway, it's hard to keep up.
  • Options
    AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    SeanT said:

    Dixie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    SeanT said:

    This guy is fascinating, even-handed and bold. He's a citizen journalist who took up that offer to go see if Malmo or other places in Sweden really were "no-go", or unusually dangerous, as Trump claimed.

    https://twitter.com/Timcast/status/836934364772589569

    At first he was skeptical. Now he's much more doubtful. As you can see.

    If you've even been no further than Coconut Grove in Miami exactly the same thing applies. There's no direction you can walk that anyone would describe as safe. And it's a fashionable area.
    So the Swedes are meant to be happy that parts of their previously ultra-safe, ultra-liberal country are being turned into dangerous American suburbs (even without US gun laws), by the idiotic mass importation of immigrants.

    Plus they get to be, literally, the rape capital of the world! Well done Sweden.

    Trump was right.

    Katie Hopkins (yes yes yes) went there as well.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4269576/KATIE-HOPKINS-reports-Scandi-lib-paradise-Sweden.html

    I don't think Sweden really is the rape capital of the world. It is merely the place where the sexual assault laws are the broadest ("sex by surprise", for example).
    Family member just back from Sweden. Lots of police watching, but doing nothing with lots of Immigrants hanging around at main thoroughfares. Girls have stopped going out alone. People are scared to to say anything, usual fear of racism. Liberal elite dominance allowing suppression of decent people.
    Here's Tim Pool again, his latest thoughts. And he was the one pouring scorn on the idea Sweden had "no-go" zones. Having been there, he's now admitting he was wrong.

    https://twitter.com/Timcast/status/836945458283102209
    I'll give it about 10 seconds before someone tries to denounce him as a nazi, or a white supremacist, or whatever the term of the day is. If you listen to the interview he gave before he went out to look around Sweden he was being told by leftwing journalists to not waste his money and give it to a charity because there was nothing to see. When journalists don't want other journalists to see what is going on you are in a dangerous place.
This discussion has been closed.