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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ahead of tomorrow night’s Oscars Roger’s annual assessment & p
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ahead of tomorrow night’s Oscars Roger’s annual assessment & predictions
2017 Oscars. They say when things aren’t going well the Oscars cheer themselves up by turning to fantasy. Enter the musical La La Land with a record 14 nominations. Cheesy and cheerful it might take your mind off Trump for a couple of hours but sadly the memory of it will disappear long before he does.
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And let me go instantly off topic: JCWNBPM
(Not that he probably doesn't deserve it he is a good actor).
Not a betting tip, but a view from an occasional cinema-goer who watches the bulk of his films he bothers to watch on airplanes.
I will pay to go to the cinema to see La La Land
I will watch Hackshaw Ridge and Arrival on a plane once they get there
I have no interest in Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Fences (despite liking much of what Denzil has done over the years) or Hell or High Water
I am intrigued by Lobster, but doubt I'll see it until it is on cable TV as it does not seem airplane material
I might watch Jackie, but only if I'm on a 14 hour flight and I've run out of other films to watch and am too tired to work/read and can't sleep.
I did not like the Jungle Book, although that is probably because I saw the original as a kid
I've no idea was Lion or Hidden Figures are about
I am not going this year, mostly due to cost, but also because the rival European meeting has much of the material later in the year.
I've backed Arrival, Portman and Kubo (half-stake on the first of these). I should warn PBers that in the past I have proven skilled at backing the Oscar tips that fail
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I do not hope that the country will be economically ruined. I am convinced that the UK is harming itself, its economy and its people.
Personally I hope that Brexit is not a disaster.
In that case, you are a very lucky lady because your hopes are about to become true.
To be fair, non of us 'Know' what will happen, amongst other things, natural disasters, War, and so on could all intervene. But we do know that trade destroys poverty and creates wealth, and is the biggest overarching route to long term prosperity. Out side the EU and out side the Customs Union, we are likely to get more of it, as there will be less obstacles to us trading with the 93% of the would's population outside the EU who account for 84% of global GDP.
Have backed the Portman at 5-1 and Michelle Williams (Who wasn't tipped, oops) at 20-1 for the actresses.
My honest response to La La Land walking out was "wow, that was an interesting film" not "gripping" or "fantastic", but "interesting".
I understand it is about a heroic conscientious objector, serving as an army medic. Interesting theme as rarely do COs get depicted positively in cinema.
Animation - I think that Zootopia will get the nod in the Trump era, but Kubo and the Two Strings was quite excellent, if too dark for youngsters (Grandpa has taken one of our hero's eyes, and is coming for the other!)
Visual Effects - agree that Jungle Book was remarkable, but an honourable mention to Deepwater Horizon which went for old score explosions and making actors get battered, rather than filled with CGI. I've been on drillships like the DH and I thought it was brilliantly realised.
Original Screenplay - a nod to Hell or High Water for some very sharp writing.
Sound Editing and Sound Mixing - if La La Land isn't going to sweep the board, then I wouldn't be surprised to see Hacksaw Ridge take both.
Those that don't license, online gambling operates as a grey market served by operators located all around the world.
Brexit makes no difference one way or another to this.
But she deserved a nod.
As a non expect I'd always thought two fairly firm rules of the Oscars is they love past winners, so if someone was a best supporting actor probably a good bet for best actor if they are up for it, and that they love, love, love movies about movies or acting generally, so if it is about the magic of or dark underbelly of show-business, critics love it.
Manchester by the sea seemed just the kind of grim depressing take critics also love, if the grey trailers are any indication.
Five teenagers appeared in court on terror charges, including plotting to join so-called Islamic State in Syria https://t.co/ImF9xugId6 https://t.co/WaNQ3DZD24
FPT. Interesting from the Guardian (not often I quote from that news organ
When the Guardian asked to participate, pointing to its possession of a “hard pass” that grants daily entry to the White House, an official declined.
“No, unfortunately a hard pass does not necessarily guarantee entry into the gaggle,” Catherine Hicks, a junior White House press aide, emailed in response.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desmond_Doss
PS Read his Citation in getting the Medal of Honor. It is amazing
Great to hear that @Boeing, a global company in a global industry, plans to build new civil #aerospace manufacturing facility at #Sheffield https://t.co/5lbCczSWAk
https://www.national-park.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Welcome-to-Acadia-National-Park.jpeg
And that's just the start. Seems physically impossible what people are capable sometimes.
Ironically, I suppose mostly tourists go to the blue states, so the "flyover" states are unaffected, with Florida and Arizona being the exceptions.
I am planning Scandanavia this year.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_Godfrey
MM for service as a stretcher bearer on the Somme, as a CO.
Nope. After losing their way after the 90s Disney have remastered their formula and their last lot of animated movies have been top drawer. I cannot judge if the other ones were better, I haven't seem them yet, but in animation and acting Zooptopia would be a worthy winner, and there is a big difference between a poorly written formulaic kids movie and a very well written one, and it was the latter.
"The Wall Street Journal strongly objects to the White House's decision to bar certain media outlets from today's gaggle," the statement read. "Had we known at the time, we would not have participated and we will not participate in such closed briefings in the future."
Baftas, Oscars, Emmie's, golden globes, Brit awards, mercury awards, blah blah.
It amazes me a little that people care... And I sometimes wonder if they really do or if it's just the fact that it was on the news....
Can there be any actor without an award at this point?
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39088770
If the White House does want to start restricting reporters... I think they will e pretty blatant about it. There will be clearer cut examples in future I think...
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4258066/amp/Copeland-MP-Trudy-Harrison-joined-Tories-year.html
No, no, these semi-coherent & barely literate tweets are in fact a cunningly executed distraction from < insert whichever illiberal fuck up they're trying to get past the proles today >
PS I was throughout an ABT, but my contempt for the Press far exceeds my dislike of Trump the man and most of his policies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wn5pIkEHPf0
https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/835496588168605696
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/oscar/chart/?view=&yr=2016&p=.htm
I think your comment a few weeks ago that it is the most underwhelming list ever is about right. There really wasn't a film that'll be remembered with the possible exception of one or two of the animations.
I saw '20th Century Women' the other day after I'd sent my list in and I quite liked it. A bit self regarding but in with a chance of 'best original screenplay'. The dialogue was very smart. I didn't see 'Hell or High Water' so I'm not sure and I liked 'Lobster' in the same category but very much an acquired taste.
The film that left me most puzzled was 'Moonlight'. When I saw it I just didn't like it but it gets into your head and several critics think it's the runaway best film. I'm sure it's not that but I've obviously missed something.
'Fences' is interesting and I would certainly have chosen Denzil Washington for best actor but a downtrodden semi alcoholic just wouldn't have had such a perfect set of teeth or that switch on film star smile which in that setting really did get in the way.
Not wishing to upstage Roger, but presumably other PBers are allowed to forecast their Oscar winners. Mine are as follows for the 25 awards on offer, showing the best decimal betting odds currently available:
Best Picture : La La Land 1.2
Best Director: Damian Chazelle (La La Land) 1.06
Best Writing: Moonlight 1.2
Best Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) 1.8
Best Actress: Emma Stone (La La Land) 1.17
Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) 1.2
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences) 1.05
Best Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight 1.20
Best Animated Feature Film: Zootopia 1.25
Best Animated Short Film: Piper 1.29
Best Cinematography: La La Land 1.20
Best Costume Design: La La Land 1.73
Best Documentary Feature: Made in America 1.17
Best Short Documentary: Extremis 2.5 OR The White Helmets 2.6 (Joint Picks)
Best Film Editing: La La Land : 1.17
Best Foreign Language Film: The Salesman 1.91
Best Live Action Short Film: Ennemis Interieurs 2.0
Best Make-up: Star Trek Beyond 1.44
Best Original Score: La La Land 1.13
Best Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea 1.72
Best Original Song: City of Stars 1.2
Best Production Design: La La Land 1.08
Best Sound Editing: Hacksaw Ridge 1.57
Best Sound Mixing: La La Land 1.17
Best Visual Effects: Jungle Book 1.22
Although I am very confident of having identified over half the winners, this is not on account of my having any specialised knowledge, but rather because of the 25 categories 23 have short odds-on favourites making it virtually impossible to show a profit. In fact I calculate that I would need to be correct in at least 18 categories to at least break even. Accordingly I will NOT be placing any bets from the above list.
Instead, I will be looking for a couple of left field picks from his list at longer odds. I notice that, probably wisely, he has omitted from making selections in a number of categories, whilst having alternative picks in others. This is probably the key to making profits overall, although the tactic is likely to prove unsuccessful should a whole raft of short-priced favourites come in.
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David Herdson referred to Labour's catastrophic defeat in 1931 when the PLP was reduced to 46 MPs with 6 ILP also elected. At that election the National Government parties basically ganged up on Labour with only one of their candidates standing in each constituency. Apart from the New Party candidates fielded by Oswald Moseley the election was a straight fight between Labour and National candidates. Such a scenario is not likely to occur again!
A movie equivalent of breaking bad has bugger all chance of getting past the Chinese moral arbitrors. Bland super hero movies with a Chinese actor crowbarred in on the other hand is perfect.
In terms of UK, cliffs are ludicrously generous tax credits under blair / brown undercut the us market. Industry expert said for harry potter subsidiary was so generous they had to work really hard to find a way to waste a million quid. Canada is a similar story.
Here in the Middle East, as an example, The Wolf of Wall St was 45 minutes shorter than the director intended. Not quite sure how it worked at all with no sex, drugs, drunkenness or nudity! We all downloaded it.
It's just not a plausible situation and is the worst possible option. So with 2017 Labour we shouldn't rule it out!
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Movies were superior as you could tell a much more compelling and detailed story in 90-150 minutes (typical movie length) than you could in 21-42 minutes (half an hour to an hour minus ads).
But in the 21st century we no longer watch episodes in isolation and/or need to wait a week before seeing the next episode. We don't need a 90 second recap at the start of the episode to remind us what happened last week in case we missed it. The medium is now completely different, a 10 episode series of 42 minutes each is 7 hours. A far more compelling story can be told in that time.
Is it a vintage year? sometimes it has to be a year or two before we see what lasts and what doesn't.
TV and Movies are different art forms, and large screen home cinemas are blurring the boundary. I do find the compression required to pack a story into 2 hours a useful discipline in terms of plotting, though perhaps not allowing such nuanced characterisation. It requires a higher level of skill to make a good movie because of the need for that distillation. Too many TV series sprawl like the fat sofa sitters binge eating while binge watching them.
Surprised Scotland's winning margin was so big. Nice to see them doing well this year. An upset against England is not impossible (I did check the odds for Scotland and France but decided not to back either).
They also have the biggest downside risk, as if for whatever reason they don't find an audience they can lose tens of millions. Why spend $75 million on an original idea that's pitched at the mainstream when you can spend half as much on three small Oscar bait films in the hope that one wows the film festival circuit and gets awards recognition and makes a bundle as a result, while the other two may find a small audience and break even? Alternatively, you double the budget for a movie you know fans of a franchise will watch anyway add extra pyrotechnics, market it like hell and hope it establishes itself as a major hit. If it's rubbish fans still watch it and you make changes for the sequel.
It's a shame, because there's nothing quite so joyous as a film that's both got high artistic and production values but isn't trying to take itself too seriously as anything other than popcorn entertainment. One of the better ones last year was The Nice Guys, Ryan Gosling and Russell Crowe's throwback cop drama. Arrival was also great as a proper science-fiction movie with ideas.
The local censor in the UAE actually (and unusually) went as far as to put out a statement saying that they had passed, uncut at 18 rating, what was put in front of them. It was the local distributor who presented the somewhat abridged version, probably the same edit made for a number of the more conservative markets around the world.