So, options for the PLP: 1) Split. I first suggested this in early 2016, I think. And again when the Smith challenge failed. I really don't think it'll happen, but it could, and perhaps should. 2) Agree on a Corbyn-acceptable but non-mental leadership candidate to stand and get guaranteed support in exchange for Corbyn stepping down. If he will. 3) Resign and go run a museum.
I think they should try for two. Not sure who Corbyn's preferred candidate would be (McDonnell?), but it would be worth a try. But only if they can get a serious person to stand against him as opposed to a complete non-entity like Owen Smith.
UKIP: 74% of their GE vote. Tories: 74% of their GE vote.
Labour: 64% of their GE vote.
Yes, the result in Stoke Central result is just as bad. 37.1% Labour vote share in Stoke, compared to 37.3% in Copeland. Stoke C is a classic heartland urban manufacturing seat for Labour and should be far safer than the likes of Copeland, with its significant rural hinterland. The combined Con + UKIP vote in both seats is also near identical, the only difference being that the split in Stoke was 50:50 compared to 87:13 in Copeland. Had the Con + UKIP vote split 70:30 Labour would have lost in Stoke too.
On reflection, I agree. Labour never won less than 60% from 1950-79. Even in 1983, they won 48%, recovering to 66% in 1997.
So, options for the PLP: 1) Split. I first suggested this in early 2016, I think. And again when the Smith challenge failed. I really don't think it'll happen, but it could, and perhaps should. 2) Agree on a Corbyn-acceptable but non-mental leadership candidate to stand and get guaranteed support in exchange for Corbyn stepping down. If he will. 3) Resign and go run a different museum.
A small typo, Morris. Don't worry, I've got it for you.
The Tories are the first governing party to win a byelection since 1982. But never mind all that: the shadow cabinet minister Cat Smith reportedly reckoned that “to be 15-18 points behind the polls and to push the Tories within 2,000 votes is an incredible achievement.” I am not sure how you would describe that kind of thinking: it sounds distinctly like someone taking comfort from the fact that a complete disaster could conceivably have been even worse.
Hope she takes such a bullishly positive line to the loss of her Lancaster & Fleetwood seat to the Tories in 2020 - that looks pretty much nailed-on at the moment.
Ha, indeed. Not sure she'll be quite so optimistic when her own P45 arrives.
Who? Is she yet another young lefty who is being lined up for the leadership?
"A marmalade dropper from John Curtice, the swing to the Tories in Copeland was bigger than what the national polls are currently suggesting"
Some of us on PB have been saying precisely this for months. Corbyn is especially toxic in marginal seats and this is not reflected in the universal figure.
Mind you, I don't suppose Copeland was particularly a marginal before all this, so it is probably even worse for Labour that even us cynics on PB have thought.
On the swing in Copeland, the Conservatives would take (on existing boundaries), among many others, both Newport seats, Mansfield, Stoke-on-Trent North and Workington.
And of course, governments usually do better at general elections than in by-elections, so the Conservatives might reasonably hope on the back of this result to take seats far further down the list of possible targets. Cardiff West and Nottingham South aren't inconceivable off the back of this by-election swing.
Perhaps even Sedgefield? Now there's a constituency name to conjure with.
Looks like the beginning of the end for Ukip which is a shame as they did good work in holding govt feet to the fire, something which Labour is clearly incapable of doing. We are entering a period of stagnation in party politics which can't be good for democracy.
"Jeremy Corbyn was humiliated today as Labour lost Copeland to the Tories in the worst by-election defeat for an Opposition since 1945. MPs accused the veteran left winger of 'insulting' the public's intelligence after his allies bizarrely hailed the disastrous showing - which saw mother-of-four Trudy Harrison romp home with a 2,000 majority - as an 'incredible achievement'."
Labour 1/10 - They held Stoke, I guess but the internals of that result are horrifying psephologiclly speaking for them. That's before we even get to Copeland. UKIP 1/10 - Didn't come close enough in Stoke to indicate to me that they can win ANYWHERE. Candidates weren't an issue imo, poor ones in Stoke; good ones in general in Copeland, beaten by the Lib Dems into 4th in Copeland Lib Dems 5/10 - Neither a serious target seat but the trend of increasing vote in a BE from GE levels occurred in both seats, so a continuation of that decent trend. Middling. Tories 9.5/10 - Just miss out on the 10/10 due to not beating UKIP in Stoke, the Copeland result was off the charts good.
The LibDems should have done much better in Stoke.
They had a good candidate opposed to two crap ones and an unsupported novice and yet they got less than half the votes they did in 2010.
It was exactly the type of by-election where they've cleaned up on in the past.
"Exactly the type"? Sorry, but that is nonsense.
In the past LibDems tended to clean up in Tory held seats where they started in second place and Labour were not in contention.
All these were gains from Labour during Conservative governments:
And there are others - Newcastle-Under-Lyme in 1986 for example - where the LibDems have had huge vote increases after starting third in Labour held seats.
Corbyn is an issue for members on closed social media. Criticism going well beyond the usual suspects. Some have woken up.
The question for Labour members is: if not now, when?
Definitely not now. Not Summer 2017 either after a disasterous set of council seat losses in mainly shire areas either. Earliest opportunity is Summer 2018 after a further disasterous set of council seat losses in met areas to go with those from shire areas a year earlier, at which point the local evidence of failure will be apparent to party members across every part of the UK. It's a moot point whether to challenge then or in Summer 2019 by which time desperation will have set in.
Labour cannot run the risk of Corbyn facing another premature leadership challenge without the bulk of his former supporters having been convinced by the electoral evidence that he is a complete and utter electoral liability. Everything else is secondary to that. Opinion polling is clearly not enough evidence. Corbyn emerges stronger from failed leadership challenges, and there's only going to be one more opportunity.
Labour 1/10 - They held Stoke, I guess but the internals of that result are horrifying psephologiclly speaking for them. That's before we even get to Copeland. UKIP 1/10 - Didn't come close enough in Stoke to indicate to me that they can win ANYWHERE. Candidates weren't an issue imo, poor ones in Stoke; good ones in general in Copeland, beaten by the Lib Dems into 4th in Copeland Lib Dems 5/10 - Neither a serious target seat but the trend of increasing vote in a BE from GE levels occurred in both seats, so a continuation of that decent trend. Middling. Tories 9.5/10 - Just miss out on the 10/10 due to not beating UKIP in Stoke, the Copeland result was off the charts good.
The LibDems should have done much better in Stoke.
They had a good candidate opposed to two crap ones and an unsupported novice and yet they got less than half the votes they did in 2010.
It was exactly the type of by-election where they've cleaned up on in the past.
"Exactly the type"? Sorry, but that is nonsense.
In the past LibDems tended to clean up in Tory held seats where they started in second place and Labour were not in contention.
All these were gains from Labour during Conservative governments:
And there are others - Newcastle-Under-Lyme in 1986 for example - where the LibDems have had huge vote increases after starting third in Labour held seats.
It seems facts don't fit the LibDem narrative.
There's a thread header in the cluster of problems for the Lib Dems that you touch on. Do you mind if I borrow some thoughts out of that and put one together in the next week or two?
The Tories are the first governing party to win a byelection since 1982. But never mind all that: the shadow cabinet minister Cat Smith reportedly reckoned that “to be 15-18 points behind the polls and to push the Tories within 2,000 votes is an incredible achievement.” I am not sure how you would describe that kind of thinking: it sounds distinctly like someone taking comfort from the fact that a complete disaster could conceivably have been even worse.
She has a point. Not everybody on the Titanic drowned.
Corbyn is an issue for members on closed social media. Criticism going well beyond the usual suspects. Some have woken up.
The question for Labour members is: if not now, when?
Definitely not now. Not Summer 2017 either after a disasterous set of council seat losses in mainly shire areas either. Earliest opportunity is Summer 2018 after a further disasterous set of council seat losses in met areas to go with those from shire areas a year earlier, at which point the local evidence of failure will be apparent to party members across every part of the UK. It's a moot point whether to challenge then or in Summer 2019 by which time desperation will have set in.
Labour cannot run the risk of Corbyn facing another premature leadership challenge without the bulk of his former supporters having been convinced by the electoral evidence that he is a complete and utter electoral liability. Everything else is secondary to that. Opinion polling is clearly not enough evidence. Corbyn emerges stronger from failed leadership challenges, and there's only going to be one more opportunity.
Mr. Jonathan, if 150 split and form a new party (which could also fit with Blair's speech) then they become the official Opposition.
Yes, if there's going to be a split it would need to be at least half plus one Lab MPs - and they'd need to register a new party or join with an existing one to become the official Opposition. 150 independents waiting for Corbyn to resign wouldn't cut it, a separation of the Co-operative party would probably do it.
In other news I've flogged my RBS shares for a few hundred quid profit :>
Almost crashed the car when I heard they'd lost £7 billion. Didn't seem to send the share down too much, which I found odd - I was expecting about a £3 billion loss perhaps.
I don't understand all those pics of May scowling at school children in Copeland. I was assured her visit backfired somehow.......also does this mean the people of Copeland want "babies and mothers to die"......... I bet that backfired badly.
Labour 1/10 - They held Stoke, I guess but the internals of that result are horrifying psephologiclly speaking for them. That's before we even get to Copeland. UKIP 1/10 - Didn't come close enough in Stoke to indicate to me that they can win ANYWHERE. Candidates weren't an issue imo, poor ones in Stoke; good ones in general in Copeland, beaten by the Lib Dems into 4th in Copeland Lib Dems 5/10 - Neither a serious target seat but the trend of increasing vote in a BE from GE levels occurred in both seats, so a continuation of that decent trend. Middling. Tories 9.5/10 - Just miss out on the 10/10 due to not beating UKIP in Stoke, the Copeland result was off the charts good.
The LibDems should have done much better in Stoke.
They had a good candidate opposed to two crap ones and an unsupported novice and yet they got less than half the votes they did in 2010.
It was exactly the type of by-election where they've cleaned up on in the past.
"Exactly the type"? Sorry, but that is nonsense.
In the past LibDems tended to clean up in Tory held seats where they started in second place and Labour were not in contention.
All these were gains from Labour during Conservative governments:
And there are others - Newcastle-Under-Lyme in 1986 for example - where the LibDems have had huge vote increases after starting third in Labour held seats.
It seems facts don't fit the LibDem narrative.
There's a thread header in the cluster of problems for the Lib Dems that you touch on. Do you mind if I borrow some thoughts out of that and put one together in the next week or two?
I think you were correct to point to the difference between Richmond and Sleaford. The Lib Dems can challenge strongly in Richmond-type seats, but not Sleaford-type seats, whereas the Alliance could challenge almost everywhere.
Lewis' position might well be strengthened by last night. Well if Labour acitivists pay any attention to the good John Curtice that is.
Nope. whatever else his merits, his seat is too marginal.
Look for someone in a safe seat, preferably not in London. I reckon HH could stand as a stalking horse, but with an intention of an internal review and further leadership contest in 2019. Ed Miliband perhaps similarly. Other than that then someone within the party core and with strong Union support. Watson possibly, but my punt is on Ashworth.
Have we hear from the Ex MP for Broxtowe this morning?
he was posting about 0500 if you look back, presumably having a nap now.
Yep, back now.
FPT: The difficulty for the centre-left is illustrated by the fact that even if we assume that EVERY LibDem voter would have been a Labour voter if we'd had a centrist leader (which clearly isn't the case),and that every Labour voter would have stayed on board, we'd still have lost. The sober fact is that the Tories are reasonably popular at the moment, and that's a problem for Corbyn but would also be a problem for any other Labour leader.
The Tories are the first governing party to win a byelection since 1982. But never mind all that: the shadow cabinet minister Cat Smith reportedly reckoned that “to be 15-18 points behind the polls and to push the Tories within 2,000 votes is an incredible achievement.” I am not sure how you would describe that kind of thinking: it sounds distinctly like someone taking comfort from the fact that a complete disaster could conceivably have been even worse.
Hope she takes such a bullishly positive line to the loss of her Lancaster & Fleetwood seat to the Tories in 2020 - that looks pretty much nailed-on at the moment.
This result is even more amazing considering it was in the north west.
I don't understand all those pics of May scowling at school children in Copeland. I was assured her visit backfired somehow.......also does this mean the people of Copeland want "babies and mothers to die"......... I bet that backfired badly.
I think it more that neither candidate could save the maternity unit. I expect the Tories in Copeland are mostly too old to be using a Maternity unit too!
Lewis' position might well be strengthened by last night. Well if Labour acitivists pay any attention to the good John Curtice that is.
Nope. whatever else his merits, his seat is too marginal.
Look for someone in a safe seat, preferably not in London. I reckon HH could stand as a stalking horse, but with an intention of an internal review and further leadership contest in 2019. Ed Miliband perhaps similarly. Other than that then someone within the party core and with strong Union support. Watson possibly, but my punt is on Ashworth.
Who would win Norwich South in
a) By-election and b) a General election (with Lewis) c) GE without Lewis
Definitely not UKIP is as far as I've got on all the above three for the moment.
As a result like this has not been seen since 1878, let us consider what Disraeli said of his opposite number (well, unofficial opposite number) when asked about the difference between a misfortune and a calamity, and suitably modify it for today:
If Jeremy Corbyn fell in the Thames, it would be a misfortune. If someone were to pull him out, it would be a calamity.
The really worrying thing is (1) that's probably the only way he'll be forced out and (2) even if he were to die or become incapacitated, there is no candidate acceptable to the current membership who would be likely to do much better.
This is grim, and existential. Their one feeble ray of sunshine is that currently no party other than the Tories are really in a position to exploit their weaknesses.
Oh by the way, Italy was delightful, but out of respect to those who endured storm Doris I won't talk about glasses of wine and pizza sitting outside in the balmy evenings opposite the fountains...
Have we hear from the Ex MP for Broxtowe this morning?
he was posting about 0500 if you look back, presumably having a nap now.
Yep, back now.
FPT: The difficulty for the centre-left is illustrated by the fact that even if we assume that EVERY LibDem voter would have been a Labour voter if we'd had a centrist leader (which clearly isn't the case),and that every Labour voter would have stayed on board, we'd still have lost. The sober fact is that the Tories are reasonably popular at the moment, and that's a problem for Corbyn but would also be a problem for any other Labour leader.
Surely that just begs the question. With a credible centrist leader, would the Tories be so popular?
I'm getting to the point where I don't want Labour to recover. The malaise is too embedded. I don't find much to like about them anymore. I feel like sitting it out until another Party forms which feels a little more 'Joe Cox' and a little less John McDonnell which I'm sure won't happen with Labour for many years if at all.
Can we tempt you with a slice of fresh flambe baby, Roger?
As a result like this has not been seen since 1878, let us consider what Disraeli said of his opposite number (well, unofficial opposite number) when asked about the difference between a misfortune and a calamity, and suitably modify it for today:
If Jeremy Corbyn fell in the Thames, it would be a misfortune. If someone were to pull him out, it would be a calamity.
The really worrying thing is (1) that's probably the only way he'll be forced out and (2) even if he were to die or become incapacitated, there is no candidate acceptable to the current membership who would be likely to do much better.
This is grim, and existential. Their one feeble ray of sunshine is that currently no party other than the Tories are really in a position to exploit their weaknesses.
Oh by the way, Italy was delightful, but out of respect to those who endured storm Doris I won't talk about glasses of wine and pizza sitting outside in the balmy evenings opposite the fountains...
What about the pineapple pizza issue that divides the nation?
As a result like this has not been seen since 1878, let us consider what Disraeli said of his opposite number (well, unofficial opposite number) when asked about the difference between a misfortune and a calamity, and suitably modify it for today:
If Jeremy Corbyn fell in the Thames, it would be a misfortune. If someone were to pull him out, it would be a calamity.
The really worrying thing is (1) that's probably the only way he'll be forced out and (2) even if he were to die or become incapacitated, there is no candidate acceptable to the current membership who would be likely to do much better.
This is grim, and existential. Their one feeble ray of sunshine is that currently no party other than the Tories are really in a position to exploit their weaknesses.
Oh by the way, Italy was delightful, but out of respect to those who endured storm Doris I won't talk about glasses of wine and pizza sitting outside in the balmy evenings opposite the fountains...
What about the pineapple pizza issue that divides the nation?
The Italians do many marvellous things with pineapple, but they do not approve of putting it on pizza.
Have we hear from the Ex MP for Broxtowe this morning?
he was posting about 0500 if you look back, presumably having a nap now.
Yep, back now.
FPT: The difficulty for the centre-left is illustrated by the fact that even if we assume that EVERY LibDem voter would have been a Labour voter if we'd had a centrist leader (which clearly isn't the case),and that every Labour voter would have stayed on board, we'd still have lost. The sober fact is that the Tories are reasonably popular at the moment, and that's a problem for Corbyn but would also be a problem for any other Labour leader.
This Labour leader is uniquely unpopular. Could it be that in failing to leave his comfort zone in order to engage with voters and to offer an accessible, coherent critique of the government is a part of the problem? Corbyn has just presided over the worst defeat of the official opposition in any by-election since 1945.
In other news I've flogged my RBS shares for a few hundred quid profit :>
Almost crashed the car when I heard they'd lost £7 billion. Didn't seem to send the share down too much, which I found odd - I was expecting about a £3 billion loss perhaps.
Their balance sheet has almost no connection with reality. There are so many things to write off and write down that it is difficult to know where to start or end in any particular year. So the stock market focusses on the underlying business which, remarkably enough, remains profitable. Obviously they would have been better to do a baby and bathwater exercise some years ago. I fear that having HM Treasury on their shareholding list inhibited them in that.
I don't understand all those pics of May scowling at school children in Copeland. I was assured her visit backfired somehow.......also does this mean the people of Copeland want "babies and mothers to die"......... I bet that backfired badly.
I think it more that neither candidate could save the maternity unit. I expect the Tories in Copeland are mostly too old to be using a Maternity unit too!
Vote for me and I will save the maternity unit does at first glance seem to be nonsense as no backbench MP, in the governing party or out of it, has that sort of power. Except it can be done. A few years ago Nicholas Soames and Nick Herbert put together a great campaign which got the planned closures at Haywards Heath hospital squashed.
So the first two Labour MPs who jumped are presumably happy enough with the anti-Corbyn sentiment it has generated. Will the next two please strap on their 'chutes and get ready for the green light to jump....
Mr. Sandpit, haven't the Co-operative Party ruled that out? Could be wrong but I think that's what I heard when that was mooted last year.
A lot of water has gone under the bridge since last year, if they made that decision then, then they need to reconsider now or maybe after a few hundred more councillors go on May 4th. Maybe a big union or two might help things along?
The sensible left and the working classes need a party who supports them, and the government need a sensible opposition through a difficult couple of years ahead.
So the first two Labour MPs who jumped are presumably happy enough with the anti-Corbyn sentiment it has generated. Will the next two please strap on their 'chutes and get ready for the green light to jump....
Wonder who they might be?
How many can realistically hope to find a better paying job somewhere else? We have the Mayoral candidates of course. But that seems quite far away in the current atmosphere.
Here's my take on yesterday 1 Labour It would be easier for them to sort themselves out if they had lost both by-elections. As it is, things are still not quite dire enough to force them to decide whether they should head leftwards with the Corbyinistas or rightwards with emmmmm, someone. Whichever way they resolve that, it can't be worse than appearing to be split down the middle and having no idea what they stand for. The public can't abide that. So still locked into the death spiral. 2 Tories Laughing. But shouldn't be complacent. They aren't winning because they are brilliant, they are winning because the opposition is so weak. The danger is they start gloating, their sense of entitlement takes over, and they and take on the mantle of the nasty party again. 3 UKIP Disappointing that even after all the revelations about Nuttall, 24% of the voters still opted for him as a potential MP. Tells you the low opinion people have of politicians and politics. The are never going to get many MPs, because they have no idea about ground game, their core vote is fanatical but not large in numbers, and is too evenly spread to reach critical mass in an individual constituency. They can attract protest votes, but the behaviour of their visible representatives is making them more and more toxic. 4. Lib Dems. Small shoots of recovery continue. We're fighting now, which we weren't 2011-2015. We know what we stand for. We are starting from a low base, but even in these two constituencies we moved forward. I know people on here dismiss council elections, but they are worth looking at as indicators of trends. Yesterday Tories held one and Lib Dems took two seats off them. Two seats where we didn't even field a candidate last time and yet won this time with 46% and 57% of the vote. So heading in the right direction. Unlike Labour and UKIP. 5. Greens. Sorry guys, you're lovely but going nowhere.
A good result for the Cons in Copeland and just bad for labour overall. I'm surprised Ukip did as well as they did - what is the point of them at the moment?
Here's a conjecture. It's all a cunning plan by Mrs May and it's going perfectly. She aims to manoeuvre a May GE with Jezza in place. A rebellion on Brexit by the HoL after she refuses to accept any amendments. Jezza given a Chinese burn by Momentum until he comes out to defend Remain and the HoL.
Stalemate. May forced to call election. Wins big majority.
In fact, there are a number of ways she can engineer this. Labour Dinosaur discombobulated as legs want to go in different directions and tiny brain confused.
Solution ... dissect brain for later study and transplant stem cells - hope they grow into brain tissue.
@DavidL Wasn't exactly a share I planned to hold till my dieing day. I have a feeling the Trump administration might want to make an example of them in the US too.
@DavidL Wasn't exactly a share I planned to hold till my dieing day. I have a feeling the Trump administration might want to make an example of them in the US too.
In fairness they got a massive amount of help from the US treasury in 2008. More than they got from the UK government in fact. Penalties related to the creation of such systemic risk seem to me entirely appropriate.
Have we hear from the Ex MP for Broxtowe this morning?
he was posting about 0500 if you look back, presumably having a nap now.
Yep, back now.
FPT: The difficulty for the centre-left is illustrated by the fact that even if we assume that EVERY LibDem voter would have been a Labour voter if we'd had a centrist leader (which clearly isn't the case),and that every Labour voter would have stayed on board, we'd still have lost. The sober fact is that the Tories are reasonably popular at the moment, and that's a problem for Corbyn but would also be a problem for any other Labour leader.
This Labour leader is uniquely unpopular. Could it be that in failing to leave his comfort zone in order to engage with voters and to offer an accessible, coherent critique of the government is a part of the problem? Corbyn has just presided over the worst defeat of the official opposition in any by-election since 1945.
The Left's problem is that they no longer represent the working man and woman. They find their nationalism disgisting, and the fact they like football and eat meat. And the eschelons of Labour love the money they get so they must protect the jobs of the Liberal Elite, which in turn have the role of sneering at the workign man adn woman.
To get Labour right:
1) Stop being a metropolitan elite - elect a common man like Harold Wilson 2) Stop thinking that the working man is a racist for wanting to protect his job, his family and his country 3) Stop thinking that drinking shit lager and going on holiday to Spain to get a red lobster tan is uncouth 4) Stop hating The Sun newspaper and all it and its readers stand for. 5) Have efficient policies that put service not self serving, overpaid civil servants like Doctors and Council officers first who pocket more than 100 grand a year. 6) Stop putting a religion first that is racist and sexist. 7) Stop treating every white man as a homophobe, racist, sexist Neanderthal. 8) Stop loving the EU and hating anyone that thinks the EU could be better. 9) Stop talking more about immigrants at Calais more than people in Stoke. 10) Stop going on about Trump getting democratically elected. That was the will of the people. Lots of your uncouth, white, lager swilling Neanderthal voters fucking love the scumbag Trump...and Le Pen. 11) Stop talking about transgender people rather than fat Northern slags. There are more of the latter.
@MomentumDarlo: Top priority for ALL Labour activists must now be to expel saboteurs Blair & 'Lord' Mandelson from OUR PARTY.
Just stands to reason doesn't it? Clearly the party is losing seats to the Tories and votes to UKIP because it is not left wing enough.
This is what this type of activist believes. Until they somehow see the light or are expelled in some way, then Labour are out of power. I see no hope for the party this morning, but who is to say what the situation will be in the 2030s.
Have we hear from the Ex MP for Broxtowe this morning?
he was posting about 0500 if you look back, presumably having a nap now.
Yep, back now.
FPT: The difficulty for the centre-left is illustrated by the fact that even if we assume that EVERY LibDem voter would have been a Labour voter if we'd had a centrist leader (which clearly isn't the case),and that every Labour voter would have stayed on board, we'd still have lost. The sober fact is that the Tories are reasonably popular at the moment, and that's a problem for Corbyn but would also be a problem for any other Labour leader.
This Labour leader is uniquely unpopular. Could it be that in failing to leave his comfort zone in order to engage with voters and to offer an accessible, coherent critique of the government is a part of the problem? Corbyn has just presided over the worst defeat of the official opposition in any by-election since 1945.
The Left's problem is that they no longer represent the working man and woman. They find their nationalism disgisting, and the fact they like football and eat meat. And the eschelons of Labour love the money they get so they must protect the jobs of the Liberal Elite, which in turn have the role of sneering at the workign man adn woman.
To get Labour right:
1) Stop being a metropolitan elite - elect a common man like Harold Wilson 2) Stop thinking that the working man is a racist for wanting to protect his job, his family and his country 3) Stop thinking that drinking shit lager and going on holiday to Spain to get a red lobster tan is uncouth 4) Stop hating The Sun newspaper and all it and its readers stand for. 5) Have efficient policies that put service not self serving, overpaid civil servants like Doctors and Council officers first who pocket more than 100 grand a year. 6) Stop putting a religion first that is racist and sexist. 7) Stop treating every white man as a homophobe, racist, sexist Neanderthal. 8) Stop loving the EU and hating anyone that thinks the EU could be better. 9) Stop talking more about immigrants at Calais more than people in Stoke. 10) Stop going on about Trump getting democratically elected. That was the will of the people. Lots of your uncouth, white, lager swilling Neanderthal voters fucking love the scumbag Trump...and Le Pen. 11) Stop talking about transgender people rather than fat Northern slags. There are more of the latter.
Only then do the Left have a chance.
The fat slags demographic. Interesting one. Perhaps Labour should call in Viz comics for advice.
I'm getting to the point where I don't want Labour to recover. The malaise is too embedded. I don't find much to like about them anymore. I feel like sitting it out until another Party forms which feels a little more 'Joe Cox' and a little less John McDonnell which I'm sure won't happen with Labour for many years if at all.
I think that would be a pity. Were Labour to return to its true roots - which owe more to 'Methodism than Marxism' I think there is still a sizeable chunk of the electorate to whom they could appeal. The Tories aren't 'evil' - they don't despise the poor & downtrodden - but I do think they often suffer from a failure of imagination when it comes to them - if only life was as simple as 'getting on your bike' - but it isn't. Meanwhile the Lib Dems are appealing to the better off Eu-phile segment - which will only ever be a minority niche - so there remains a sizeable gap in the market - the less well off, poorly educated (whose's fault's that then?) which the Tories under May may well encroach upon - but they'll never own - and these people, maybe more than most, need representation.
Sadly, I don't think North London government payroll Labour is remotely up to the job - but in marketing terms the 'consumer need' is very much there.
Have we hear from the Ex MP for Broxtowe this morning?
he was posting about 0500 if you look back, presumably having a nap now.
Yep, back now.
FPT: The difficulty for the centre-left is illustrated by the fact that even if we assume that EVERY LibDem voter would have been a Labour voter if we'd had a centrist leader (which clearly isn't the case),and that every Labour voter would have stayed on board, we'd still have lost. The sober fact is that the Tories are reasonably popular at the moment, and that's a problem for Corbyn but would also be a problem for any other Labour leader.
This Labour leader is uniquely unpopular. Could it be that in failing to leave his comfort zone in order to engage with voters and to offer an accessible, coherent critique of the government is a part of the problem? Corbyn has just presided over the worst defeat of the official opposition in any by-election since 1945.
The Left's problem is that they no longer represent the working man and woman. They find their nationalism disgisting, and the fact they like football and eat meat. And the eschelons of Labour love the money they get so they must protect the jobs of the Liberal Elite, which in turn have the role of sneering at the workign man adn woman.
To get Labour right:
1) Stop being a metropolitan elite - elect a common man like Harold Wilson 2) Stop thinking that the working man is a racist for wanting to protect his job, his family and his country 3) Stop thinking that drinking shit lager and going on holiday to Spain to get a red lobster tan is uncouth 4) Stop hating The Sun newspaper and all it and its readers stand for. 5) Have efficient policies that put service not self serving, overpaid civil servants like Doctors and Council officers first who pocket more than 100 grand a year. 6) Stop putting a religion first that is racist and sexist. 7) Stop treating every white man as a homophobe, racist, sexist Neanderthal. 8) Stop loving the EU and hating anyone that thinks the EU could be better. 9) Stop talking more about immigrants at Calais more than people in Stoke. 10) Stop going on about Trump getting democratically elected. That was the will of the people. Lots of your uncouth, white, lager swilling Neanderthal voters fucking love the scumbag Trump...and Le Pen. 11) Stop talking about transgender people rather than fat Northern slags. There are more of the latter.
Have we hear from the Ex MP for Broxtowe this morning?
he was posting about 0500 if you look back, presumably having a nap now.
Yep, back now.
FPT: The difficulty for the centre-left is illustrated by the fact that even if we assume that EVERY LibDem voter would have been a Labour voter if we'd had a centrist leader (which clearly isn't the case),and that every Labour voter would have stayed on board, we'd still have lost. The sober fact is that the Tories are reasonably popular at the moment, and that's a problem for Corbyn but would also be a problem for any other Labour leader.
This Labour leader is uniquely unpopular. Could it be that in failing to leave his comfort zone in order to engage with voters and to offer an accessible, coherent critique of the government is a part of the problem? Corbyn has just presided over the worst defeat of the official opposition in any by-election since 1945.
The Left's problem is that they no longer represent the working man and woman. They find their nationalism disgisting, and the fact they like football and eat meat. And the eschelons of Labour love the money they get so they must protect the jobs of the Liberal Elite, which in turn have the role of sneering at the workign man adn woman.
To get Labour right:
1) Stop being a metropolitan elite - elect a common man like Harold Wilson 2) Stop thinking that the working man is a racist for wanting to protect his job, his family and his country 3) Stop thinking that drinking shit lager and going on holiday to Spain to get a red lobster tan is uncouth 4) Stop hating The Sun newspaper and all it and its readers stand for. 5) Have efficient policies that put service not self serving, overpaid civil servants like Doctors and Council officers first who pocket more than 100 grand a year. 6) Stop putting a religion first that is racist and sexist. 7) Stop treating every white man as a homophobe, racist, sexist Neanderthal. 8) Stop loving the EU and hating anyone that thinks the EU could be better. 9) Stop talking more about immigrants at Calais more than people in Stoke. 10) Stop going on about Trump getting democratically elected. That was the will of the people. Lots of your uncouth, white, lager swilling Neanderthal voters fucking love the scumbag Trump...and Le Pen. 11) Stop talking about transgender people rather than fat Northern slags. There are more of the latter.
Only then do the Left have a chance.
Does Labour love the EU now?
It does. Well, it's management does. It's MPs do. Corbyn doesn't, but the party's message is love EU, Love Remain
Have we hear from the Ex MP for Broxtowe this morning?
he was posting about 0500 if you look back, presumably having a nap now.
Yep, back now.
FPT: The difficulty for the centre-left is illustrated by the fact that even if we assume that EVERY LibDem voter would have been a Labour voter if we'd had a centrist leader (which clearly isn't the case),and that every Labour voter would have stayed on board, we'd still have lost. The sober fact is that the Tories are reasonably popular at the moment, and that's a problem for Corbyn but would also be a problem for any other Labour leader.
This Labour leader is uniquely unpopular. Could it be that in failing to leave his comfort zone in order to engage with voters and to offer an accessible, coherent critique of the government is a part of the problem? Corbyn has just presided over the worst defeat of the official opposition in any by-election since 1945.
"The sober fact is that the Tories are reasonably popular at the moment, and that's a problem for Corbyn but would also be a problem for any other Labour leader. "
I can't believe Nick Palmer wrote this. It isn't as if Tories and Labour are unrelated phenomena coexisting in distant galaxies. They are two sides of the same coin. A more popular Labour leader would take some support away from Mrs May and conceivably bring Labour within hailing distance. It may be hard or even impossible to elect such a leader but that's not the same as arguing axiomatically that Corbyn can't be improved on because the Tories are popular.
As Labour appear to be in a logjam I wonder whether there could be an appetite for the return of Blair? It looks like he's interested and he's the only possibility who's a proven winner.
That must be at least tempting to those dozens of councillors and MPs who are certin to lose their seats under the current incumbent.
Have we hear from the Ex MP for Broxtowe this morning?
he was posting about 0500 if you look back, presumably having a nap now.
Yep, back now.
FPT: The difficulty for the centre-left is illustrated by the fact that even if we assume that EVERY LibDem voter would have been a Labour voter if we'd had a centrist leader (which clearly isn't the case),and that every Labour voter would have stayed on board, we'd still have lost. The sober fact is that the Tories are reasonably popular at the moment, and that's a problem for Corbyn but would also be a problem for any other Labour leader.
Surely that just begs the question. With a credible centrist leader, would the Tories be so popular?
It does. But the LibDems have a reasonably credible centrist leader, lots of dedicated activists and a central policy position that appeals to lots of the 48%, and they aren't doing more than edging up from the chasm. A Copeland voter who disapproved of the Tories but didn't like Corbyn could reasonably have voted LibDem (the position in Stoke was different with a far-right threat and I still think the LibDems should not have tried hard there and had a deservedly poor result) - but there wasn't a great deal of interest. The underlying problem faced by the centre-left everywhere (except possibly Germany) is that the demand for centre-left politics is currently very weak - most people want apparently stable conservatism or radical populist change.
I do see the problem that many voters evince Corbyn as a reason not to vote Labour. But would they vote Labour if we were led by, say, Yvette? The centre-left has made efforts to move on from sheer negativity and I don't think most of us will feel that they can reasonably be blamed for Copeland, but there's more to the problem than Corbyn himself.
Having watched Cat Smith’s superb performance last night after the Copeland result came in, I think we’ve found the perfect 2020 replacement for Jeremy.
As Labour appear to be in a logjam I wonder whether there could be an appetite for the return of Blair? It looks like he's interested and he's the only possibility who's a proven winner.
That must be at least tempting to those dozens of councillors and MPs who are certin to lose their seats under the current incumbent.
Please, please please will the Labour PArty make Tony Blair its leader once again.
Have we hear from the Ex MP for Broxtowe this morning?
he was posting about 0500 if you look back, presumably having a nap now.
Yep, back now.
FPT: The difficulty for the centre-left is illustrated by the fact that even if we assume that EVERY LibDem voter would have been a Labour voter if we'd had a centrist leader (which clearly isn't the case),and that every Labour voter would have stayed on board, we'd still have lost. The sober fact is that the Tories are reasonably popular at the moment, and that's a problem for Corbyn but would also be a problem for any other Labour leader.
This Labour leader is uniquely unpopular. Could it be that in failing to leave his comfort zone in order to engage with voters and to offer an accessible, coherent critique of the government is a part of the problem? Corbyn has just presided over the worst defeat of the official opposition in any by-election since 1945.
"The sober fact is that the Tories are reasonably popular at the moment, and that's a problem for Corbyn but would also be a problem for any other Labour leader. "
I can't believe Nick Palmer wrote this. It isn't as if Tories and Labour are unrelated phenomena coexisting in distant galaxies. They are two sides of the same coin. A more popular Labour leader would take some support away from Mrs May and conceivably bring Labour within hailing distance. It may be hard or even impossible to elect such a leader but that's not the same as arguing axiomatically that Corbyn can't be improved on because the Tories are popular.
To the cliff everyone, the air is purer over there.
As Labour appear to be in a logjam I wonder whether there could be an appetite for the return of Blair? It looks like he's interested and he's the only possibility who's a proven winner.
That must be at least tempting to those dozens of councillors and MPs who are certin to lose their seats under the current incumbent.
I'm sure the membership currently would more want to see him behind bars than leading them, and is one of labours main problems.
As Labour appear to be in a logjam I wonder whether there could be an appetite for the return of Blair? It looks like he's interested and he's the only possibility who's a proven winner.
That must be at least tempting to those dozens of councillors and MPs who are certin to lose their seats under the current incumbent.
It's the next, figurative, "Tony Blair" the Labour Party need to find.
The existing, actual, Tony Blair is about as toxic as Corbyn in the wider country.
Have we hear from the Ex MP for Broxtowe this morning?
.
Yep, back now.
FPT: The difficulty for the centre-left is illustrated by the fact that even if we assume that EVERY LibDem voter would have been a Labour voter if we'd had a centrist leader (which clearly isn't the case),and that every Labour voter would have stayed on board, we'd still have lost. The sober fact is that the Tories are reasonably popular at the moment, and that's a problem for Corbyn but would also be a problem for any other Labour leader.
This Labour leader is uniquely unpopular. Could it be that in failing to leave his comfort zone in order to engage with voters and to offer an accessible, coherent critique of the government is a part of the problem? Corbyn has just presided over the worst defeat of the official opposition in any by-election since 1945.
The Left's problem is that they no longer represent the working man and woman. They find their nationalism disgisting, and the fact they like football and eat meat. And the eschelons of Labour love the money they get so they must protect the jobs of the Liberal Elite, which in turn have the role of sneering at the workign man adn woman.
To get Labour right:
1) Stop being a metropolitan elite - elect a common man like Harold Wilson 2) Stop thinking that the working man is a racist for wanting to protect his job, his family and his country 3) Stop thinking that drinking shit lager and going on holiday to Spain to get a red lobster tan is uncouth 4) Stop hating The Sun newspaper and all it and its readers stand for. 5) Have efficient policies that put service not self serving, overpaid civil servants like Doctors and Council officers first who pocket more than 100 grand a year. 6) Stop putting a religion first that is racist and sexist. 7) Stop treating every white man as a homophobe, racist, sexist Neanderthal. 8) Stop loving the EU and hating anyone that thinks the EU could be better. 9) Stop talking more about immigrants at Calais more than people in Stoke. 10) Stop going on about Trump getting democratically elected. That was the will of the people. Lots of your uncouth, white, lager swilling Neanderthal voters fucking love the scumbag Trump...and Le Pen. 11) Stop talking about transgender people rather than fat Northern slags. There are more of the latter.
Only then do the Left have a chance.
You have just described your personal tastes which as a Tory is the last thing a Labour Party should be aiming for. As it happens you sound rather 'alt right' which would be even more alienating to Labour voters who remember voted over 70% Remain
As Labour appear to be in a logjam I wonder whether there could be an appetite for the return of Blair? It looks like he's interested and he's the only possibility who's a proven winner.
That must be at least tempting to those dozens of councillors and MPs who are certin to lose their seats under the current incumbent.
If we live in a world where Corbyn, Brexit and Trump are possible, who can rule out anything?
Having watched Cat Smith’s superb performance last night after the Copeland result came in, I think we’ve found the perfect 2020 replacement for Jeremy.
What Stoke showed is how dependent they used to be on nota. They need to get that vote back.
That should have been obvious from the 2015 GE, when in a huge number of seats where Con and Lab were the top two, the LD share dropped by 15%ish and the UKIP share went up by the same, give or take a point.
Stoke Central was one of them - LD -17.5, UKIP +18.3.
Having watched Cat Smith’s superb performance last night after the Copeland result came in, I think we’ve found the perfect 2020 replacement for Jeremy.
As Labour appear to be in a logjam I wonder whether there could be an appetite for the return of Blair? It looks like he's interested and he's the only possibility who's a proven winner.
That must be at least tempting to those dozens of councillors and MPs who are certin to lose their seats under the current incumbent.
It's the next, figurative, "Tony Blair" the Labour Party need to find.
The existing, actual, Tony Blair is about as toxic as Corbyn in the wider country.
More so, Blair had a 25 gap on unpopularity with Corbyn didn't he ?
Comments
#BREAKING 136 Turks with diplomatic status sought asylum in Germany: ministry
And of course, governments usually do better at general elections than in by-elections, so the Conservatives might reasonably hope on the back of this result to take seats far further down the list of possible targets. Cardiff West and Nottingham South aren't inconceivable off the back of this by-election swing.
Perhaps even Sedgefield? Now there's a constituency name to conjure with.
Mr. 86, McDonnell must be unacceptable to the PLP.
Clive Lewis?
"Jeremy Corbyn was humiliated today as Labour lost Copeland to the Tories in the worst by-election defeat for an Opposition since 1945. MPs accused the veteran left winger of 'insulting' the public's intelligence after his allies bizarrely hailed the disastrous showing - which saw mother-of-four Trudy Harrison romp home with a 2,000 majority - as an 'incredible achievement'."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rochdale_by-election,_1972
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bermondsey_by-election,_1983
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenwich_by-election,_1987
And there are others - Newcastle-Under-Lyme in 1986 for example - where the LibDems have had huge vote increases after starting third in Labour held seats.
It seems facts don't fit the LibDem narrative.
Labour cannot run the risk of Corbyn facing another premature leadership challenge without the bulk of his former supporters having been convinced by the electoral evidence that he is a complete and utter electoral liability. Everything else is secondary to that. Opinion polling is clearly not enough evidence. Corbyn emerges stronger from failed leadership challenges, and there's only going to be one more opportunity.
Almost crashed the car when I heard they'd lost £7 billion. Didn't seem to send the share down too much, which I found odd - I was expecting about a £3 billion loss perhaps.
Look for someone in a safe seat, preferably not in London. I reckon HH could stand as a stalking horse, but with an intention of an internal review and further leadership contest in 2019. Ed Miliband perhaps similarly. Other than that then someone within the party core and with strong Union support. Watson possibly, but my punt is on Ashworth.
FPT:
The difficulty for the centre-left is illustrated by the fact that even if we assume that EVERY LibDem voter would have been a Labour voter if we'd had a centrist leader (which clearly isn't the case),and that every Labour voter would have stayed on board, we'd still have lost. The sober fact is that the Tories are reasonably popular at the moment, and that's a problem for Corbyn but would also be a problem for any other Labour leader.
https://twitter.com/daveprentis/status/835061024843784192
"If not now then when
If now today then
Why make your promises
A love declared for days to come
Is as good as none"
a) By-election and b) a General election (with Lewis) c) GE without Lewis
Definitely not UKIP is as far as I've got on all the above three for the moment.
If Jeremy Corbyn fell in the Thames, it would be a misfortune. If someone were to pull him out, it would be a calamity.
The really worrying thing is (1) that's probably the only way he'll be forced out and (2) even if he were to die or become incapacitated, there is no candidate acceptable to the current membership who would be likely to do much better.
This is grim, and existential. Their one feeble ray of sunshine is that currently no party other than the Tories are really in a position to exploit their weaknesses.
Oh by the way, Italy was delightful, but out of respect to those who endured storm Doris I won't talk about glasses of wine and pizza sitting outside in the balmy evenings opposite the fountains...
Labour at the moment are definitely something with sage and onion...
8% up on the night, not amazing, better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
Labour not showing any signs of learning the right lessons, with "Corbyn allies" predictably blaming "disunity" for the Copeland loss...
Wonder who they might be?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39075244
Edited extra bit: spending, thereof.
The sensible left and the working classes need a party who supports them, and the government need a sensible opposition through a difficult couple of years ahead.
1 Labour It would be easier for them to sort themselves out if they had lost both by-elections. As it is, things are still not quite dire enough to force them to decide whether they should head leftwards with the Corbyinistas or rightwards with emmmmm, someone. Whichever way they resolve that, it can't be worse than appearing to be split down the middle and having no idea what they stand for. The public can't abide that. So still locked into the death spiral.
2 Tories Laughing. But shouldn't be complacent. They aren't winning because they are brilliant, they are winning because the opposition is so weak. The danger is they start gloating, their sense of entitlement takes over, and they and take on the mantle of the nasty party again.
3 UKIP Disappointing that even after all the revelations about Nuttall, 24% of the voters still opted for him as a potential MP. Tells you the low opinion people have of politicians and politics. The are never going to get many MPs, because they have no idea about ground game, their core vote is fanatical but not large in numbers, and is too evenly spread to reach critical mass in an individual constituency. They can attract protest votes, but the behaviour of their visible representatives is making them more and more toxic.
4. Lib Dems. Small shoots of recovery continue. We're fighting now, which we weren't 2011-2015. We know what we stand for. We are starting from a low base, but even in these two constituencies we moved forward. I know people on here dismiss council elections, but they are worth looking at as indicators of trends. Yesterday Tories held one and Lib Dems took two seats off them. Two seats where we didn't even field a candidate last time and yet won this time with 46% and 57% of the vote. So heading in the right direction. Unlike Labour and UKIP.
5. Greens. Sorry guys, you're lovely but going nowhere.
Here's a conjecture. It's all a cunning plan by Mrs May and it's going perfectly. She aims to manoeuvre a May GE with Jezza in place. A rebellion on Brexit by the HoL after she refuses to accept any amendments. Jezza given a Chinese burn by Momentum until he comes out to defend Remain and the HoL.
Stalemate. May forced to call election. Wins big majority.
In fact, there are a number of ways she can engineer this. Labour Dinosaur discombobulated as legs want to go in different directions and tiny brain confused.
Solution ... dissect brain for later study and transplant stem cells - hope they grow into brain tissue.
It's not looking good.
LOL at how all the other teams unveiled their cars at exhibitions, whereas Mercedes unveiled theirs by having Lewis drive it around Silverstone!
To get Labour right:
1) Stop being a metropolitan elite - elect a common man like Harold Wilson
2) Stop thinking that the working man is a racist for wanting to protect his job, his family and his country
3) Stop thinking that drinking shit lager and going on holiday to Spain to get a red lobster tan is uncouth
4) Stop hating The Sun newspaper and all it and its readers stand for.
5) Have efficient policies that put service not self serving, overpaid civil servants like Doctors and Council officers first who pocket more than 100 grand a year.
6) Stop putting a religion first that is racist and sexist.
7) Stop treating every white man as a homophobe, racist, sexist Neanderthal.
8) Stop loving the EU and hating anyone that thinks the EU could be better.
9) Stop talking more about immigrants at Calais more than people in Stoke.
10) Stop going on about Trump getting democratically elected. That was the will of the people. Lots of your uncouth, white, lager swilling Neanderthal voters fucking love the scumbag Trump...and Le Pen.
11) Stop talking about transgender people rather than fat Northern slags. There are more of the latter.
Only then do the Left have a chance.
Although I do suspect it will be the Mercedes.
Edited extra bit: ahem, correction - it's a 'potential' protest. The headline was a little misleading.
The sceptics wrote us off in Stoke but we proved them wrong. We beat them with our energy, passion and determination.
The Tories may have taken Copeland, but I’ve seen everything we need to win across the country right here in Stoke these last few weeks.
If we build on the momentum from this win, we can beat UKIP and the Tories across the country.
Contribute £10 or £20 to help grow our movement.
Give £5 Give £10 Give £20
I’ve been overwhelmed to see hundreds of volunteers coming to Stoke - sharing cars, knocking on doors, calling voters. It was inspiring. Thank you.
We felt your energy and optimism. And I share your passion to build a better country.
This is what Momentum is all about; people coming together to change our politics and change our country. That’s why I’m involved.
If we’re going to keep winning, we need to fund it.
Give £5 Give £10 Give £20
This is our moment. Let’s seize it.
In solidarity,
Damian Bailey
Local Momentum activist
I do computers for a living. They can be bloody annoying sometimes!
Sadly, I don't think North London government payroll Labour is remotely up to the job - but in marketing terms the 'consumer need' is very much there.
Owen JonesVerified account@OwenJones84 1h1 hour ago
Unless something drastic happens, Labour are on course for their worst defeat since the 1930s with terrible consequences for this country.
I can't believe Nick Palmer wrote this. It isn't as if Tories and Labour are unrelated phenomena coexisting in distant galaxies. They are two sides of the same coin. A more popular Labour leader would take some support away from Mrs May and conceivably bring Labour within hailing distance. It may be hard or even impossible to elect such a leader but that's not the same as arguing axiomatically that Corbyn can't be improved on because the Tories are popular.
That must be at least tempting to those dozens of councillors and MPs who are certin to lose their seats under the current incumbent.
I do see the problem that many voters evince Corbyn as a reason not to vote Labour. But would they vote Labour if we were led by, say, Yvette? The centre-left has made efforts to move on from sheer negativity and I don't think most of us will feel that they can reasonably be blamed for Copeland, but there's more to the problem than Corbyn himself.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/24/malaysia-says-vx-nerve-agent-used-murder-kim-jong-nam/
The existing, actual, Tony Blair is about as toxic as Corbyn in the wider country.
Stoke Central was one of them - LD -17.5, UKIP +18.3.
NEW THREAD
Heritability of political attitudes increases when kids leave home - less parental influence https://t.co/3ja7dyOj6E https://t.co/Tm8NfthUFQ