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Tories GAIN Copeland. Surely Corbyn has to realise he is toxic with voters? pic.twitter.com/2Q29M0Z58y
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No. As the BBC says, the results are 'mixed' you win some, you lose some. Copeland is the outlier, Stoke far more representative of 'Middle England'.....and for the Lib Dem rampers - twice Foxtrot Alpha is still Foxtrot Alpha......
Probably more than many labour MP's will have, and Paul Nuttall
As well as being a lie, also sounds pretty sexist if you ask me.
I apologise to any Corbyn fans upset with my trenchant criticism of your man, but he's the equivalent of stepping in a dog turd.
You don't stand and admire it, you wipe it off
"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Brighton, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!
"A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"
No, really :
Eastleigh - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastleigh_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
(just for a bit of fun!)
Not even very close in the end in Copeland. There's no way to see a gain by the governing party in such a seat as well as anything other than huge, the line about demographic trends fpt is crap given how long it's been since the ge.
Lib dems movig in the right direction but nothing too massive, seems disappointing in both seats.
Corbyn is probably still safe for a bit. Unless there are indications the members have turned in him in large numbers the MPs will be too scared to move on him and too gutless to leave the party, so they'll be watchful - this has to have shaken a few corbynistas, and more bad news in the coming months could see a tipping point.
UKIP need the Tories to mess up in the eyes of their supporters over Brexit, they are really struggling.
Does this decimate the hated Blairites and leave the left more-or-less intact, or would it be an equal opportunity massacre?
Old boundaries: Con maj of 140
New boundaries: Con maj of 148
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
https://twitter.com/OliverCooper/status/834961048549605376
VX nerve agent, a chemical on a U.N. list of weapons of mass destruction, was used to kill the estranged half-brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in last week's bizarre murder in a busy Kuala Lumpur airport, Malaysian police said on Friday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-malaysia-kim-chemicalweapo-idUSKBN16303Z
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VX_(nerve_agent)
Seriously, what is he on about?
Just for fun, here are the losing Lab MPs in that scenario (keeping all other parties constant, and using current boundaries):
https://tinyurl.com/LabSeatLosses
Where I did tell them so was the Copeland Labour establishment. You can't treat a community this way for decades. The 2014 Mayoral Referendum and 2015 Mayoral Election were the wake up calls. The elastic has finally snapped.
Another truly grim night for western politics but I suppose the voters are being nothing but consistent. Well done to those who called this right. Good Night.
https://twitter.com/GillTroughton
If that no longer works.....
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/834971731672645636
Secondly, it now looks like the campaign of distortion and fear about the local NHS which was the centrepiece of the Labour campaign did not just fail but was actively counterproductive. There is a real threat to maternity services, and everyone knows it, but by the same token they also know that there has just been a brand new set of £90 million buildings built at West Cumberland Hospital, that contrary to claims in the Labour leaflets it is not proposed to close Accident and Emergency there, or remove inpatient beds from Keswick hospital.
One non-aligned voter sent me a message on polling day which began with a cynical comment about the Conservative position on the hospital but concluded with something along the lines of "but still better than the nonsense Labour are inventing."
The "babies will die if you don't vote Labour" leaflets were very polarising and annoyed a lot of people - offhand looking at the size of Trudy's majority I suspect the number of extra Conservative votes they produced by motivating Tory voters must have exceeded the number of extra Labour votes they produced by motivating the Labour base.
Very interesting post, thanks.
Well, I'm down £87.50 on tonight's results, but I'm pleased to see Labour get hammered.
Disraeli......
Note also that despite a lot of hype the Lib Dems did really poorly in both by-elections.
Have we seen the last of Paul Nuttall already?
9 am on election day: Tories in Copeland say if canvass returns are correct and come in, they are favourites.
11 a: UKIP go quiet IE, lost
4 pm: Labour say: lost Copeland, won Stoke.
I was accused by the of one or two of being "Billy Bullshit." Even though the above was not my forecast, just news from the ground, the info from the ground proved correct.
Ukip’s best days appear to be behind it. Since last year’s Brexit vote the party has been adrift. Its message of ensuring “Brexit means exit” is inapt, as voters are happy to entrust Prime Minister Theresa May with that task. Mr Nuttall’s leadership will be questioned but there is no one else better placed to lead the party. He will probably remain in place, stand in further by-elections and lose again, while his party drifts into a fringe interest.
Labour, however, faces a stark choice about how it interprets these results. It can either wrap itself in the comfort blanket of the Stoke victory and blame Tony Blair’s Brexit speech for losing Copeland. Or it can confront the fact that its supporters are floating away to the Conservatives and that there is something rotten at its core — the party leadership. Based on Mr Corbyn’s performance as opposition leader to date, any criticism will be swept aside. Like a frog in a pot of water that is coming to the boil, Labour is not dead yet — but it is rapidly reaching the point at which it will be too late to change course.
https://www.ft.com/content/46bf968c-fa49-11e6-bd4e-68d53499ed71
I am disappointed for Gill Troughton in Copeland, but I think that there are local nuclear issues that do not generalise to other constituencies.
Absolutely historical by-election victory for this Conservative Government in Copeland, well done to Trudy Harrison and her campaign team for achieving that amazing result. She also performed well in her first media interview with Andrew Neil as the newly elected MP for Copeland!
Some interesting feedback on the by-election results tonight from Andrew Neil and Professor Curtice on BBCs This Week.
Andrew Neil - "An holistic plan?! Its 3:20 in the morning and the last thing I need to hear is holistic plans, its just a drivel word I will not listen at 3:20 in the morning Mr Hancock!"
Professor Curtice - "We just have to contemplate how curious and parodoxical the game of politics can be. Never more than seven months ago, the Conservative party lost a referendum where the leader campaigned very strongly for a remain vote and ended up with the country voting to leave. We are left seven months on with an opposition that is losing votes in by-election after by-election Its happened in Witney, in Richmond, in Sleaford, in Stoke and in Copeland. All very different parts of England, but the message to Labour is the same. And meanwhile UKIP are now facing the possibility that the rewards of the fact the majority of the country voted to leave may go to the Conservative party than them. Maybe, maybe, one or two Conservative MPs tomorrow morning may want to write a little private thank you note to David Cameon and thank him for losing the referendum on June the 23rd."
No matter how many straws the Labour Leadership cling to on the back of retaining Stoke whilst losing Copeland, this has been one of the most disasterous nights for the Labour party outside of a post war GE and their catastrophic implosion in Scotland in the last two years. Corbyn's position is now totally untenable if the Labour party is to have the chance to recover enough to pose any kind of threat as the Main Opposition to the Conservative Government at the next GE. If Corbyn really loved his party as he claims, he would go tomorrow. David Cameron can also take another huge bow due to the fact that he stood firm and vowed to protect the NHS by ring fencing funding if he was elected. By keeping that promise in office, he really did overcome and neutralise one of the Labour party's strongest campaign assets over the last two decades despite the opposition from some of those in his own party in the run up to the 2010 GE. If I was a Labour MP in safe seat, I would be starting to panick, but if I was a Labour MP with a majority of less than 5K I would be fecking bricking it!! Especially if Corbyn tries to stay on just long enough to try to influence the choice of his successor.
Looks like West Cumbria hospital is toast, but that looked on the cards whatever happened in the election.
Copeland and Stoke can go back to being ignored by the government and media now.
Message to Mark Senior.. I would back those two Conservative Westminster by-election results over your party's two local election gains tonight when it comes to being a far clearer indicator of both party's direction of travel at the next GE.
Commiserations to Theresa May who will have to preside over the economic chaos and collapse of hard Brexit and then the chaos and political collapse as Scotland breaks away taking Ulster with it.
Labour? I remember a Labour Party. Didn't they disappear a few years ago?
However he is comforted by his by-election win in Copeland and looks forward to travelling to Los Angeles to his acceptance speech at the Oscars on Sunday following his triumphs as "Best Actor" and "Best Supporting Actor" in the film "Manchester Utd By The Sea" - his life story as the manager of the worlds biggest football club and part time job as a sea-side landlady.
Labour have campaigned on saving the NHS since 2008. It has failed every time. There is a phrase for people who repeat their mistakes: incapable of adapting.
Those who do not adapt become extinct.
Also just released, this analysis from Number Cruncher Politics: https://twitter.com/i/moments/835008842966646784
Highlights:
* Small swing to Tories in Stoke a very strong performance for a sitting Government
* Lib Dems also doing well, in places where they were rebuilding from a very low base
* Ukip performance very disappointing, though actually one of their better efforts in a by-election
* Copeland arguably the best result for a sitting Government contesting an Opposition-held seat at a by-election since 1878; even a mediocre Opposition should be getting a double-digit swing in its favour at a typical by-election
* Swing to Government in both by-elections is greater both than the long-term historic trend, and than national VI polling would suggest
Re: the larger than expected swing to the Tories, several theories are advanced but one of these is that the polls may *still* be under-reporting Tory strength. This is not the favoured option advanced in the analysis, but personally I would not be surprised. The polls have, IIRC, under-estimated Conservative support in every GE in the modern era except 1983. If we were to assume that they are over-counting Labour by 3% and undercounting the Tories by 3%, as was roughly the case in 2015, then needless to say Labour's position would be far more dire even than the most pessimistic pundits are claiming.
All in all, happy days!
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/819851857602506752
Constructive proposals for change or a justification on why the current approach is perfect would be "pro NHS".
"24 hours to save the NHS" or "babies will die under the Tories" are not.
"I (just) heard someone on radio 4 or 5 say he'd seen the Tories look 'confident' followed by the stats on when Labour last lost a by election when in opposition ....
It's unlike the BBC to stick their neck out unless it's all over."
The really frightening problem for Labour, which is thrown into sharp relief by both the 2015 GE result and the Copeland by-election, is that "X days/weeks/months to save the NHS" is a tactic that appears finally to be falling victim to public ennui, and the law of diminishing returns. Labour have basically been jumping up and down and predicting the imminent demise of the NHS since 1979 - but it's still there, and most of the time that it's stubbornly refused to cease to be there has been passed under Tory Governments.
Banging on about the NHS is, ever so gradually, ceasing to work for Labour, and they have precious little else with which to hurt the Government. They are in really desperate trouble.