The best part about the #ordinarylabour hashtag is that they've got Jeremy Corbyn to hold up a blank piece of paper, as if that was ever a good idea on the Internet
May even has a lead amongst the snowflakes? Impressive.
Imagine calling young people snowflakes when one of the biggest snowflakes around is a seventy year old man who takes to twitter to have a nervous breakdown everytime someone disagrees with him.
Meanwhile PBers acting like these leads are some kind of shock - really? Also the Conservatives are getting voted in right now because they are the least worst option - not because 'the facts of life are conservative'.
Snowflakes are only red Ms A. Everything else is righteous indignation.
Why did anyone ever think John Stones was any good? He reminds me of Titus Bramble and Kolo Toure, a player who seemingly has no idea how to play in the position he is in, but inexplicably still gets put there.
totally agree. Kolo had pace, his only saviour in defence. He was no good anywhere.
Just realised you may have meant 87-92 rather than 83-87 but even then I don't see how you see a swingback to the opposition.
Feb 89 averages: Con 41% (41.9% at GE) Lab 38.7% (34.4% at GE) LD 9.5% (17.8% at GE)
So there was again a swing from Lab to Con in that Parliament too.
It depends on how precisely one seeks to date it really. At the end of January 1989 there were 3 polls giving the Tories leads of 11 - 13% and a further poll at the end of February gave them a 9% lead. Of course, had the more recent adjustments been made those Tory leads would have been several points bigger!
Worth posting just to appreciate the broader picture of what's been going on over the course of the last year:
1. Net movement of around 4-5% in Ukip and Con support - one down, one up, of course - following on pretty abruptly from the referendum and the coronation of Theresa May. Both parties have pitched about since, but the medium-term trend in support has been effectively level since last August.
2. Gradual but continuous decline in Labour support, and near-mirror image increase in Liberal Democrat support, now ongoing for almost a year.
The Lib Dem increase has been somewhat more gentle than the Labour decline, and this is probably explained by some of the churn going on in the background, e.g. the ongoing collapse of Scottish Labour and the partial consolidation of the Unionist vote in Scotland around the Tories. All the same, if Ukip and the Conservatives continue to maintain share then it will be interesting to see if the Liberal Democrats can continue to profit at the expense of Labour, or if we see them levelling back off just short of Ukip at around 11-12%.
That is a fair comment. I also suspect that the pollsters are making a serious error re- adjustments to their findings following their 2015 debacle - particularly in their treatment of Don't Knows and Total Refusers. Post 2015 they concluded that such voters had voted strongly Tory in the end , and are making the assumption that that pattern will continue next time. I have serious doubts about that, and feel that many of the current Don't Knows /Refusers are unhappy Labour voters who are not prepared to declare there support for a party led by Corbyn. I see no obvious reason why a vaguely Tory doubtful voter would wish at this time to withold support from Theresa May. If I am correct , the pollsters may have misdirected their adjustments.
ICM's spiral of silence adjustment reduced the Tory lead, as it happens.
ICM have actually acknowledged that the overall impact of their methodological changes has been to add several points to the Tory lead.
Not much to say on Copeland other than it will be close but the Tory vote is reasonably solid. PM came down to give a pep talk and made a handful of calls and I got a quick selfie with Boris while phoning
Out of interest, to @HYUFD & any other tory activists lurking...
What was the 2015 tory GOTV operation like in no hoper seats?
How hard did they try to get those 7000 stoke central votes?
TSE is probably best placed to answer that than me but I certainly doubt Stoke Central received the effort in 2015 it is receiving now when it was not a marginal seat
no GOTV in no hoper seats. In fact, helpers are told to help elsewhere. In London a candidate who nearly won has been deselected because he refused to help in other constituencies. He had, at best a team of 6, and nearly won a seat we hadn't held for 30 years. And they deselected him for not helping elsewhere. Bastards
I know he's a spiv fantasist borderline racist and all round unpleasant person but I really felt sorry for Paul Nuttall trudging round Stoke this evening.
It stuck in my head and after Nuttall's humiliation I can't help wondering how he must be feeling.
Especially was
I true.
The Police seem to accept it as true
Do you have a link to their statement saying such?
It fake news
Ah. T
It's a shame that his previous mistakes on this matter (and others) tend to muddy the waters for him having been there.
Maybe we can get him for wasting police time?!
Not m I'd Resolve may mean.
Remember we were discussing THE FIRE CHILD?
I agreed with your assessment that it is seriously inferior to ICE TWINS, though "enjoyable" in its own right.
Today I learned that FIRE CHILD has gone into the top ten Sunday Times bestseller list. My second Sunday Times bestseller in a row. Which means that right now I simultaneously have top ten bestsellers in the UK, Finland, Germany (plus another in the top 20), Brazil, and Denmark and possibly several others (they don't keep me informed: I have to Google).
I HAVE BECOME THE SPOOKY KID VERSION OF JOJO MOYES
It is quite quite bizarre. And so much of it is luck. Right now I'm making squillions of cash, yet it could so easily have been the opposite. When I first joined PB I was a just-recovering heroin addict, living in a rented hovel, with an annual income of about £15k.
FUCK. I got lucky. Most don't.
Maybe I should erect a small shrine to the Smithson Family, with candles and pictures of OGH, they have certainly coincided with my enormous dose of undeserved good fortune.
Praise Be.
Luck is a very under-rated quality. Or, more precisely, making the most of the luck you get is. I have always been pretty good at that. Unlike most of us, though, you also have talent: that is a rarer gift and something that it is criminal to squander. Earning good money for being good at something that brings people pleasure is a wonderful thing. Heartiest congratulations.
People are talking about a thing called AV this evening. IVSTR something that I've heard before. Might perhaps we be permitted a thread to explain it all to us?
Not much to say on Copeland other than it will be close but the Tory vote is reasonably solid. PM came down to give a pep talk and made a handful of calls and I got a quick selfie with Boris while phoning
The Tories had better not win Copeland, after I've bet on Labour.
It is touch and go but I think the Labour to Tory swing will be bigger in Stoke than Copeland
ver interesting. And what a Labour person said publicly today,
People are talking about a thing called AV this evening. IVSTR something that I've heard before. Might perhaps we be permitted a thread to explain it all to us?
Looking at the double market on betfair, am I the only one thinking 34 is good value for lab/ ukip?
Given lab are 3.5 to win Copeland and ukip are similar for stoke surely 13 would be the accumulated odds. Anything above 20 feels like a value bet to me.
Usual warnings apply (dyor but I'd add do your own maths too and remember a losing value bet is still a losing bet)
Comment of the day on the Sky News civil heteropartnership vid:
Blame the following on ---please choose one --- : 1) Brexit 2) Trump 3) Clinton's emails 4) Darth Vader 5) R2D2 6) Merkel 7) Sky News for not having anything better to do. Correct answer will be announced on the 31st February 2017.
In my opinion, western civilisation took a wrong turn when it adopted the practice of putting cooked cheese on otherwise wholesome and delicious ingredients.
People are talking about a thing called AV this evening. IVSTR something that I've heard before. Might perhaps we be permitted a thread to explain it all to us?
A thread on AV? What a wonderful idea! It's just a pity nobody's mentioned it before...
@chrisshipitv: Labour source says the party now fears losing Stoke by-election to Conservatives more than it does losing to UKIP.
This kind of warning/expectation management has become the norm for Labour in recent by-elections when they are defending safe seats. But it can't do Labour any harm to push the threat of a Tory rather than UKIP gain as part of their GOTV operation, especially if voter apathy is the biggest concern they face defending the seat?
Comments
Good evening, everyone.
*hides from TSE*
Worth posting just to appreciate the broader picture of what's been going on over the course of the last year:
1. Net movement of around 4-5% in Ukip and Con support - one down, one up, of course - following on pretty abruptly from the referendum and the coronation of Theresa May. Both parties have pitched about since, but the medium-term trend in support has been effectively level since last August.
2. Gradual but continuous decline in Labour support, and near-mirror image increase in Liberal Democrat support, now ongoing for almost a year.
The Lib Dem increase has been somewhat more gentle than the Labour decline, and this is probably explained by some of the churn going on in the background, e.g. the ongoing collapse of Scottish Labour and the partial consolidation of the Unionist vote in Scotland around the Tories. All the same, if Ukip and the Conservatives continue to maintain share then it will be interesting to see if the Liberal Democrats can continue to profit at the expense of Labour, or if we see them levelling back off just short of Ukip at around 11-12%.
An elegantly restrained Margarita on a Neapolitan based of divine lightness and flavour. Sensational.
Given lab are 3.5 to win Copeland and ukip are similar for stoke surely 13 would be the accumulated odds. Anything above 20 feels like a value bet to me.
Usual warnings apply (dyor but I'd add do your own maths too and remember a losing value bet is still a losing bet)
Blame the following on ---please choose one --- : 1) Brexit 2) Trump 3) Clinton's emails 4) Darth Vader 5) R2D2 6) Merkel 7) Sky News for not having anything better to do. Correct answer will be announced on the 31st February 2017.
NEW THREAD
Yippeee!