I have a worry the pineapple on pizza division may end up more toxic on PB than Leaver vs Remainer. For what it's worth, those who defame the greatest foodstuff ever with pineapple should be pariahs in my view.
Pineapple, anchovy, and pepperoni for me. Hardcore. Guess I'm on the Icelandic no fly list now.
What has changed so much in 9 months? I would have thought that when Labour do dump Corbyn sometime within the next 18 months that any national boost to Labour fortunes following that would percolate through to Scotland . I actually beblieve it to be still realistic for Labour to poll circa 35% in 2020 - and perhaps 25% in Scotland.
The Tories will make much of the Corbyn period when it is done, and that may have an effect, but if he really is so uniquely bad, he must be depressing a natural level of support that anyone not him can restore, at least to a respectable level.
I think it will be very limited as opposition does not effect people in a great way like government.The big changes are normally due to economics black Wednesday banking crash.If the next business cycle recession is bad combined with Brexit it could go either way politically depending if Labour have a competent leader in the public's eyes.
Not much to say on Copeland other than it will be close but the Tory vote is reasonably solid. PM came down to give a pep talk and made a handful of calls and I got a quick selfie with Boris while phoning
The Tories had better not win Copeland, after I've bet on Labour.
Mr. Pulpstar, not sure I agree. Even with Corbyn in place, I can't see the Lib Dems/UKIP taking sufficient bites out of Labour.
Its not UKIP/Labour that would be taking bites out of Labour (Except maybe Cambridge and some other Labour seats), it'll be the Tories romping home to 450/500+ seats.
This clearly implied corollary with by-election swingback still to come is why I can't believe the Tories are about to gain stoke in the first place.
Swingback only occurs if there has been a swing away in the first place!
We have a great opportunity to test that!!
Indeed so - but there is no precedent for a major party lagging by a big margin at this stage of a Parliament - whether in Government or Opposition - not to improve its position by the following election.
You think the swingback will be to the Opposition?
Interesting theory, when was the last time a Labour opposition achieved a swing to it between this stage of Parliament and the election?
I agreed with your assessment that it is seriously inferior to ICE TWINS, though "enjoyable" in its own right.
Today I learned that FIRE CHILD has gone into the top ten Sunday Times bestseller list. My second Sunday Times bestseller in a row. Which means that right now I simultaneously have top ten bestsellers in the UK, Finland, Germany (plus another in the top 20), Brazil, and Denmark and possibly several others (they don't keep me informed: I have to Google).
I HAVE BECOME THE SPOOKY KID VERSION OF JOJO MOYES
It is quite quite bizarre. And so much of it is luck. Right now I'm making squillions of cash, yet it could so easily have been the opposite. When I first joined PB I was a just-recovering heroin addict, living in a rented hovel, with an annual income of about £15k.
FUCK. I got lucky. Most don't.
Maybe I should erect a small shrine to the Smithson Family, with candles and pictures of OGH, they have certainly coincided with my enormous dose of undeserved good fortune.
Praise Be.
Congratulations.
Whilst I envy your money, and slightly envy your success (*), I don't envy your lifestyle. Not one bit. Then again, you like to holiday in five-star hotels, whilst I prefer five-pound tents.
However you now face a problem: you know the second book under this pseudonym wasn't as good as the first. fortunately it seems not to have really dented sales. However you must have a nagging concern that the next one might continue a downwards trend?
It would drive me (more) bonkers if I was in your situation.
(*) I'd love to be a published author, but lack the skill.
I have a worry the pineapple on pizza division may end up more toxic on PB than Leaver vs Remainer. For what it's worth, those who defame the greatest foodstuff ever with pineapple should be pariahs in my view.
The wonderful thing about pizza is that many toppings are available...
Not much to say on Copeland other than it will be close but the Tory vote is reasonably solid. PM came down to give a pep talk and made a handful of calls and I got a quick selfie with Boris while phoning
The Tories had better not win Copeland, after I've bet on Labour.
It is touch and go but I think the Labour to Tory swing will be bigger in Stoke than Copeland
Agree one and two but I wouldn't want to hold my breath until Labour get 20% in Scotland again.
Well Labour managed over 22% last May!
The key word was "again".
What has changed so much in 9 months? I would have thought that when Labour do dump Corbyn sometime within the next 18 months that any national boost to Labour fortunes following that would percolate through to Scotland . I actually beblieve it to be still realistic for Labour to poll circa 35% GB wide in 2020 - and perhaps 25% in Scotland.
What has changed is the loss of incumbency, combined with the loss of a raison d'etre for SLAB and that has nothing to do with Corbyn (it predates him even). In 2015 Labour were still the incumbents in the vast majority of Westminster constituencies and will have benefited accordingly, their share in 2015 flattered their true position believe it or not. Once they lost that incumbency effect they lost the last leg they were standing on.
Now what is Scottish Labour's purpose? For years it was "not the Tories" but the SNP tick that box. Unionist or not the SNP? The Tories tick that box.
Scottish Labour isn't dead because of Corbyn, the strange death of Scottish Labour predates him and the collapse of SLAB following the loss of their old incumbency would have happened under a Burnham-led Labour Party too.
I agree that Labour's problems in Scotland pre-date Corbyn , but Labour still managed 22.5% last May.There are signs that we are beyond peak-SNP with many former Tory voters having returned home. In due course, many former Labour voters may follow their example. I seem to recall that Labour was not expected to win a single constuency seat at Holyrood last year - in the event they did win three.
I have a worry the pineapple on pizza division may end up more toxic on PB than Leaver vs Remainer. For what it's worth, those who defame the greatest foodstuff ever with pineapple should be pariahs in my view.
The wonderful thing about pizza is that many toppings are available...
That's true, but there must be limits, for the sake of decency!
Mr. Pulpstar, not sure I agree. Even with Corbyn in place, I can't see the Lib Dems/UKIP taking sufficient bites out of Labour.
Its not UKIP/Labour that would be taking bites out of Labour (Except maybe Cambridge and some other Labour seats), it'll be the Tories romping home to 450/500+ seats.
This clearly implied corollary with by-election swingback still to come is why I can't believe the Tories are about to gain stoke in the first place.
Swingback only occurs if there has been a swing away in the first place!
We have a great opportunity to test that!!
Indeed so - but there is no precedent for a major party lagging by a big margin at this stage of a Parliament - whether in Government or Opposition - not to improve its position by the following election.
You think the swingback will be to the Opposition?
Interesting theory, when was the last time a Labour opposition achieved a swing to it between this stage of Parliament and the election?
1987 and 1959 Parliaments. The Tories managed the same thing in the 1997 and 2001 Parliaments.
The tragedy for Labour and us, is that things are there for the taking, but
TWENTY-SIX PERCENT.
The tragedy for the country is that we need a viable opposition. It is not just the left but the whole country who will pay the price of current Labour divisions.
Listening to the Lords they are of the opinion that they know best and it is their duty to prevent the Government exercising the will of the people,
Time to kick them all out
It would, perhaps, be better for the governance of this great nation if the thorny issue of the upper house of parliament, its powers, its composition, were decided in a little less kneejerk a fashion.
Agree one and two but I wouldn't want to hold my breath until Labour get 20% in Scotland again.
Well Labour managed over 22% last May!
The key word was "again".
What has changed so much in 9 months? I would have thought that when Labour do dump Corbyn sometime within the next 18 months that any national boost to Labour fortunes following that would percolate through to Scotland . I actually beblieve it to be still realistic for Labour to poll circa 35% GB wide in 2020 - and perhaps 25% in Scotland.
What has changed is the loss of incumbency, combined with the loss of a raison d'etre for SLAB and that has nothing to do with Corbyn (it predates him even). In 2015 Labour were still the incumbents in the vast majority of Westminster constituencies and will have benefited accordingly, their share in 2015 flattered their true position believe it or not. Once they lost that incumbency effect they lost the last leg they were standing on.
Now what is Scottish Labour's purpose? For years it was "not the Tories" but the SNP tick that box. Unionist or not the SNP? The Tories tick that box.
Scottish Labour isn't dead because of Corbyn, the strange death of Scottish Labour predates him and the collapse of SLAB following the loss of their old incumbency would have happened under a Burnham-led Labour Party too.
I agree that Labour's problems in Scotland pre-date Corbyn , but Labour still managed 22.5% last May.There are signs that we are beyond peak-SNP with many former Tory voters having returned home. In due course, many former Labour voters may follow their example. I seem to recall that Labour was not expected to win a single constuency seat at Holyrood last year - in the event they did win three.
They managed 22.5% with 40/59 MPs having an incumbent personal vote.
That means unless you don't believe incumbents have a personal vote that strip away that to just 1 incumbent and you have a partisan-only position even worse than 22.5%
Not much to say on Copeland other than it will be close but the Tory vote is reasonably solid. PM came down to give a pep talk and made a handful of calls and I got a quick selfie with Boris while phoning
Out of interest, to @HYUFD & any other tory activists lurking...
What was the 2015 tory GOTV operation like in no hoper seats?
How hard did they try to get those 7000 stoke central votes?
Agree one and two but I wouldn't want to hold my breath until Labour get 20% in Scotland again.
Well Labour managed over 22% last May!
The key word was "again".
What has changed so much in 9 months? I would have thought that when Labour do dump Corbyn sometime within the next 18 months that any national boost to Labour fortunes following that would percolate through to Scotland . I actually beblieve it to be still realistic for Labour to poll circa 35% GB wide in 2020 - and perhaps 25% in Scotland.
What has changed is the loss of incumbency, combined with the loss of a raison d'etre for SLAB and that has nothing to do with Corbyn (it predates him even). In 2015 Labour were still the incumbents in the vast majority of Westminster constituencies and will have benefited accordingly, their share in 2015 flattered their true position believe it or not. Once they lost that incumbency effect they lost the last leg they were standing on.
Now what is Scottish Labour's purpose? For years it was "not the Tories" but the SNP tick that box. Unionist or not the SNP? The Tories tick that box.
Scottish Labour isn't dead because of Corbyn, the strange death of Scottish Labour predates him and the collapse of SLAB following the loss of their old incumbency would have happened under a Burnham-led Labour Party too.
I agree that Labour's problems in Scotland pre-date Corbyn , but Labour still managed 22.5% last May.There are signs that we are beyond peak-SNP with many former Tory voters having returned home. In due course, many former Labour voters may follow their example. I seem to recall that Labour was not expected to win a single constuency seat at Holyrood last year - in the event they did win three.
I lived and worked in Scotland and my wife is from 'fisher folk' in the North East of Scotland. The SNP and the conservatives will dominate Scottish politics for decades. Labour are likely to be a very minor party in Scotland for the foreseable future as their old space now belongs to the SNP
To repeat swingback only happens when there has been a swing away from a Government. When that has not happened there is no reason to expect a Government to improve its position from mid term - indeed the opposite is more likely!
The tragedy for Labour and us, is that things are there for the taking, but
TWENTY-SIX PERCENT.
The tragedy for the country is that we need a viable opposition. It is not just the left but the whole country who will pay the price of current Labour divisions.
Spot on. If Jeremy Corbyn possessed a patriotic bone in his body he would have stood down a long time ago.
Mr. Tyndall, indeed. Labour MPs are so besotted with the Labour brand they're letting their actual values wither and die in Parliament. I said a year ago they should split. They still should.
Not much to say on Copeland other than it will be close but the Tory vote is reasonably solid. PM came down to give a pep talk and made a handful of calls and I got a quick selfie with Boris while phoning
Out of interest, to @HYUFD & any other tory activists lurking...
What was the 2015 tory GOTV operation like in no hoper seats?
How hard did they try to get those 7000 stoke central votes?
TSE is probably best placed to answer that than me but I certainly doubt Stoke Central received the effort in 2015 it is receiving now when it was not a marginal seat
Agree one and two but I wouldn't want to hold my breath until Labour get 20% in Scotland again.
Well Labour managed over 22% last May!
The key word was "again".
What has changed so much in 9 months? I would have thought that when Labour do dump Corbyn sometime within the next 18 months that any national boost to Labour fortunes following that would percolate through to Scotland . I actually beblieve it to be still realistic for Labour to poll circa 35% GB wide in 2020 - and perhaps 25% in Scotland.
What has changed is the loss of incumbency, combined with the loss of a raison d'etre for SLAB and that has nothing to do with Corbyn (it predates him even). In 2015 Labour were still the incumbents in the vast majority of Westminster constituencies and will have benefited accordingly, their share in 2015 flattered their true position believe it or not. Once they lost that incumbency effect they lost the last leg they were standing on.
Now what is Scottish Labour's purpose? For years it was "not the Tories" but the SNP tick that box. Unionist or not the SNP? The Tories tick that box.
Scottish Labour isn't dead because of Corbyn, the strange death of Scottish Labour predates him and the collapse of SLAB following the loss of their old incumbency would have happened under a Burnham-led Labour Party too.
I agree that Labour's problems in Scotland pre-date Corbyn , but Labour still managed 22.5% last May.There are signs that we are beyond peak-SNP with many former Tory voters having returned home. In due course, many former Labour voters may follow their example. I seem to recall that Labour was not expected to win a single constuency seat at Holyrood last year - in the event they did win three.
They managed 22.5% with 40/59 MPs having an incumbent personal vote.
That means unless you don't believe incumbents have a personal vote that strip away that to just 1 incumbent and you have a partisan-only position even worse than 22.5%
In fact, probably something not so very different to the position in the mid-teens that the polls are now indicating.
Agree one and two but I wouldn't want to hold my breath until Labour get 20% in Scotland again.
Well Labour managed over 22% last May!
The key word was "again".
What has changed so much in 9 months? I would have thought that when Labour do dump Corbyn sometime within the next 18 months that any national boost to Labour fortunes following that would percolate through to Scotland . I actually beblieve it to be still realistic for Labour to poll circa 35% GB wide in 2020 - and perhaps 25% in Scotland.
What has changed is the loss of incumbency, combined with the loss of a raison d'etre for SLAB and that has nothing to do with Corbyn (it predates him even). In 2015 Labour were still the incumbents in the vast majority of Westminster constituencies and will have benefited accordingly, their share in 2015 flattered their true position believe it or not. Once they lost that incumbency effect they lost the last leg they were standing on.
Now what is Scottish Labour's purpose? For years it was "not the Tories" but the SNP tick that box. Unionist or not the SNP? The Tories tick that box.
Scottish Labour isn't dead because of Corbyn, the strange death of Scottish Labour predates him and the collapse of SLAB following the loss of their old incumbency would have happened under a Burnham-led Labour Party too.
I agree that Labour's problems in Scotland pre-date Corbyn , but Labour still managed 22.5% last May.There are signs that we are beyond peak-SNP with many former Tory voters having returned home. In due course, many former Labour voters may follow their example. I seem to recall that Labour was not expected to win a single constuency seat at Holyrood last year - in the event they did win three.
I lived and worked in Scotland and my wife is from 'fisher folk' in the North East of Scotland. The SNP and the conservatives will dominate Scottish politics for decades. Labour are likely to be a very minor party in Scotland for the foreseable future as their old space now belongs to the SNP
Listening to the Lords they are of the opinion that they know best and it is their duty to prevent the Government exercising the will of the people,
Time to kick them all out
It would, perhaps, be better for the governance of this great nation if the thorny issue of the upper house of parliament, its powers, its composition, were decided in a little less kneejerk a fashion.
I was once walking through a remote part of west Scotland. I got chatting to a woman outside a small croft who invited me in to have some food with her kid. I was hungry after a week or so of trail food, so I accepted the kind offer.
Listening to the Lords they are of the opinion that they know best and it is their duty to prevent the Government exercising the will of the people,
Time to kick them all out
It would, perhaps, be better for the governance of this great nation if the thorny issue of the upper house of parliament, its powers, its composition, were decided in a little less kneejerk a fashion.
Agree one and two but I wouldn't want to hold my breath until Labour get 20% in Scotland again.
Well Labour managed over 22% last May!
The key word was "again".
What has changed so much in 9 months? I would have thought that when Labour do dump Corbyn sometime within the next 18 months that any national boost to Labour fortunes following that would percolate through to Scotland . I actually beblieve it to be still realistic for Labour to poll circa 35% GB wide in 2020 - and perhaps 25% in Scotland.
What has changed is the loss of incumbency, combined with the loss of a raison d'etre for SLAB and that has nothing to do with Corbyn (it predates him even). In 2015 Labour were still the incumbents in the vast majority of Westminster constituencies and will have benefited accordingly, their share in 2015 flattered their true position believe it or not. Once they lost that incumbency effect they lost the last leg they were standing on.
Now what is Scottish Labour's purpose? For years it was "not the Tories" but the SNP tick that box. Unionist or not the SNP? The Tories tick that box.
Scottish Labour isn't dead because of Corbyn, the strange death of Scottish Labour predates him and the collapse of SLAB following the loss of their old incumbency would have happened under a Burnham-led Labour Party too.
I agree that Labour's problems in Scotland pre-date Corbyn , but Labour still managed 22.5% last May.There are signs that we are beyond peak-SNP with many former Tory voters having returned home. In due course, many former Labour voters may follow their example. I seem to recall that Labour was not expected to win a single constuency seat at Holyrood last year - in the event they did win three.
They managed 22.5% with 40/59 MPs having an incumbent personal vote.
That means unless you don't believe incumbents have a personal vote that strip away that to just 1 incumbent and you have a partisan-only position even worse than 22.5%
I was referring to Holyrood in 2016 - not Westminster 2015. In 2015 Labour actually polled over 24%.in Scotland.
I have a worry the pineapple on pizza division may end up more toxic on PB than Leaver vs Remainer. For what it's worth, those who defame the greatest foodstuff ever with pineapple should be pariahs in my view.
The wonderful thing about pizza is that many toppings are available...
In Brazil they have 'rodizio de pizza' restaurants in which a succession of waiters rotate around the restaurant offering slices from infinite variety of pizzas. The desert options include pizza with chocolate or dulce de leite (a kind of ultra-sweet condensed milk) toppings. I made the mistake of trying the chocolate pizza out of curiosity ...
I was once walking through a remote part of west Scotland. I got chatting to a woman outside a small croft who invited me in to have some food with her kid. I was hungry after a week or so of trail food, so I accepted the kind offer.
It was pizza with anchovies. I refused.
Anchovies are truly the devil's food.
The pudding was nice though.
Ah but anchovies are one of the essential secret ingredients of a great ratatouille - along with sugar.
Listening to the Lords they are of the opinion that they know best and it is their duty to prevent the Government exercising the will of the people,
Time to kick them all out
It would, perhaps, be better for the governance of this great nation if the thorny issue of the upper house of parliament, its powers, its composition, were decided in a little less kneejerk a fashion.
As part of the desperately needed constitutional convention that the UK needs if it is to have a viable long-term future, perhaps?
Mr. Tyndall, indeed. Labour MPs are so besotted with the Labour brand they're letting their actual values wither and die in Parliament. I said a year ago they should split. They still should.
Anyway, I'm off.
MR Dancer - indeed.
The Morris Dancer - Mortimer plan for split, reform as Diet Labour and become opposition overnight could hardly have been easier...
Mr. Pulpstar, not sure I agree. Even with Corbyn in place, I can't see the Lib Dems/UKIP taking sufficient bites out of Labour.
Its not UKIP/Labour that would be taking bites out of Labour (Except maybe Cambridge and some other Labour seats), it'll be the Tories romping home to 450/500+ seats.
This clearly implied corollary with by-election swingback still to come is why I can't believe the Tories are about to gain stoke in the first place.
Swingback only occurs if there has been a swing away in the first place!
We have a great opportunity to test that!!
Indeed so - but there is no precedent for a major party lagging by a big margin at this stage of a Parliament - whether in Government or Opposition - not to improve its position by the following election.
You think the swingback will be to the Opposition?
Interesting theory, when was the last time a Labour opposition achieved a swing to it between this stage of Parliament and the election?
1987 and 1959 Parliaments. The Tories managed the same thing in the 1997 and 2001 Parliaments.
1987 Parliament?
In February 1985:
Tories were averaging 37.5% - at the General Election they achieved 42.2% Lab were averaging 35.8% - at the General Election they achieved 30.8% Lib SDP Alliance were averaging 24.9% - at the General Election they achieved 22.6%
So the Tories beat their polling at this stage by nearly 5% Lab underperformed their polling at this stage by exactly 5% Lib SDP Alliance underperformed by over 2%
How do you make that a swing from the government to the opposition? I make that a swing from Lab to the Government from the polling at this stage of effectively 5%. Put a swing from the polling at this stage of 5% from the opposition to the government and Con may actually gain Bootle!
Listening to the Lords they are of the opinion that they know best and it is their duty to prevent the Government exercising the will of the people,
Time to kick them all out
It would, perhaps, be better for the governance of this great nation if the thorny issue of the upper house of parliament, its powers, its composition, were decided in a little less kneejerk a fashion.
Maybe but their arrogance takes your breath away
Nevertheless, abolition in response to such truculence is not proportionate given we still have no bloody clue what we'd replace it with. They can be overruled precisely because they were too obstructive in the past, and better that be done and then, if necessary, things are reviewed - it's not necessary to respond to any arrogance in over the top fashion.
Listening to the Lords they are of the opinion that they know best and it is their duty to prevent the Government exercising the will of the people,
Time to kick them all out
It would, perhaps, be better for the governance of this great nation if the thorny issue of the upper house of parliament, its powers, its composition, were decided in a little less kneejerk a fashion.
Maybe but their arrogance takes your breath away
Calm down there job at the moment is to revise and make amendments.The Labour leader in the lord's has said they will not hold it up and the PMs timetable is safe.
Listening to the Lords they are of the opinion that they know best and it is their duty to prevent the Government exercising the will of the people,
Time to kick them all out
It would, perhaps, be better for the governance of this great nation if the thorny issue of the upper house of parliament, its powers, its composition, were decided in a little less kneejerk a fashion.
Maybe but their arrogance takes your breath away
Nevertheless, abolition in response to such truculence is not proportionate given we still have no bloody clue what we'd replace it with. They can be overruled precisely because they were too obstructive in the past, and better that be done and then, if necessary, things are reviewed - it's not necessary to respond to any arrogance in over the top fashion.
I have little doubt Lords reform will be the 2020 conservative manifesto
Agree one and two but I wouldn't want to hold my breath until Labour get 20% in Scotland again.
Well Labour managed over 22% last May!
The key word was "again".
What has changed so much in 9 months? I would have thought that when Labour do dump Corbyn sometime within the next 18 months that any national boost to Labour fortunes following that would percolate through to Scotland . I actually beblieve it to be still realistic for Labour to poll circa 35% GB wide in 2020 - and perhaps 25% in Scotland.
What has changed is the loss of incumbency, combined with the loss of a raison d'etre for SLAB and that has nothing to do with Corbyn (it predates him even). In 2015 Labour were still the incumbents in the vast majority of Westminster constituencies and will have benefited accordingly, their share in 2015 flattered their true position believe it or not. Once they lost that incumbency effect they lost the last leg they were standing on.
Now what is Scottish Labour's purpose? For years it was "not the Tories" but the SNP tick that box. Unionist or not the SNP? The Tories tick that box.
Scottish Labour isn't dead because of Corbyn, the strange death of Scottish Labour predates him and the collapse of SLAB following the loss of their old incumbency would have happened under a Burnham-led Labour Party too.
I agree that Labour's problems in Scotland pre-date Corbyn , but Labour still managed 22.5% last May.There are signs that we are beyond peak-SNP with many former Tory voters having returned home. In due course, many former Labour voters may follow their example. I seem to recall that Labour was not expected to win a single constuency seat at Holyrood last year - in the event they did win three.
They managed 22.5% with 40/59 MPs having an incumbent personal vote.
That means unless you don't believe incumbents have a personal vote that strip away that to just 1 incumbent and you have a partisan-only position even worse than 22.5%
I was referring to Holyrood in 2016 - not Westminster 2015. In 2015 Labour actually polled over 24%.in Scotland.
I agreed with your assessment that it is seriously inferior to ICE TWINS, though "enjoyable" in its own right.
Today I learned that FIRE CHILD has gone into the top ten Sunday Times bestseller list. My second Sunday Times bestseller in a row. Which means that right now I simultaneously have top ten bestsellers in the UK, Finland, Germany (plus another in the top 20), Brazil, and Denmark and possibly several others (they don't keep me informed: I have to Google).
I HAVE BECOME THE SPOOKY KID VERSION OF JOJO MOYES
It is quite quite bizarre. And so much of it is luck. Right now I'm making squillions of cash, yet it could so easily have been the opposite. When I first joined PB I was a just-recovering heroin addict, living in a rented hovel, with an annual income of about £15k.
FUCK. I got lucky. Most don't.
Maybe I should erect a small shrine to the Smithson Family, with candles and pictures of OGH, they have certainly coincided with my enormous dose of undeserved good fortune.
Praise Be.
Congratulations.
Whilst I envy your money, and slightly envy your success (*), I don't envy your lifestyle. Not one bit. Then again, you like to holiday in five-star hotels, whilst I prefer five-pound tents.
However you now face a problem: you know the second book under this pseudonym wasn't as good as the first. fortunately it seems not to have really dented sales. However you must have a nagging concern that the next one might continue a downwards trend?
It would drive me (more) bonkers if I was in your situation.
(*) I'd love to be a published author, but lack the skill.
I'm confident the 3rd - WHEN SHE'S ALONE - is better than the 2nd, and possibly the 1st. It has everything. It's fucking bleak, but also really gripping (I hope).
It has a compelling premise (supposedly happy mildly amnesiac woman wakes from brief coma, following horrible car accident, to be told it wasn't an accident, she actually tried to kill herself - and because of her brain trauma amnesia she can't recall why). It has a hideously twisted narrative and denouement. It has a fab location, Dartmoor is so good in so many ways.
I could fuck it up, but I've def got a good idea.
That said, I will need to the fourth to be TOTALLY different and unexpected.
But hell with that. Right now, as of this evening, life is rich and good, and that's all one can ask.
Cheers!
Even if you're books were to fail, from now on, you'd still have made a fortune. I really enjoyed Genesis Secret and Bible of the Dead.
I spent last night in Brussels. It's fine looking and even atmospheric in places, but the word seedy could have been invented for it. After the rain the smell of drains is overpowering - essence of French campsite toilets circa 1985; and the grand, late 19th century King Leopold edifices are, perhaps appropriately, in a general state of disrepair. And the beggars, Jesus Christ - so many of them; but not as many as the soldiers on patrol around the stations and other public buildings. There were a few Chinese tourists around the place, but the restaurants and bars were empty in Europe's capital city: a sad, bedraggled town that has seen far better days.
Listening to the Lords they are of the opinion that they know best and it is their duty to prevent the Government exercising the will of the people,
Time to kick them all out
It would, perhaps, be better for the governance of this great nation if the thorny issue of the upper house of parliament, its powers, its composition, were decided in a little less kneejerk a fashion.
Maybe but their arrogance takes your breath away
Nevertheless, abolition in response to such truculence is not proportionate given we still have no bloody clue what we'd replace it with. They can be overruled precisely because they were too obstructive in the past, and better that be done and then, if necessary, things are reviewed - it's not necessary to respond to any arrogance in over the top fashion.
I have little doubt Lords reform will be the 2020 conservative manifesto
Only in respect they will pack the place out with more Conservatives .
Listening to the Lords they are of the opinion that they know best and it is their duty to prevent the Government exercising the will of the people,
Time to kick them all out
It would, perhaps, be better for the governance of this great nation if the thorny issue of the upper house of parliament, its powers, its composition, were decided in a little less kneejerk a fashion.
Maybe but their arrogance takes your breath away
Nevertheless, abolition in response to such truculence is not proportionate given we still have no bloody clue what we'd replace it with. They can be overruled precisely because they were too obstructive in the past, and better that be done and then, if necessary, things are reviewed - it's not necessary to respond to any arrogance in over the top fashion.
I have little doubt Lords reform will be the 2020 conservative manifesto
The current situation was always something they could have done with anything, curious it would take this to convince them. Still, a solution is needed of some kind for the place.
I was once walking through a remote part of west Scotland. I got chatting to a woman outside a small croft who invited me in to have some food with her kid. I was hungry after a week or so of trail food, so I accepted the kind offer.
It was pizza with anchovies. I refused.
Anchovies are truly the devil's food.
The pudding was nice though.
Anchovies can be disgusting, but the good ones (almost always from the North Coast of Spain) are utterly delicious. Unsalted boquerones - served in good olive oil with very thin slices of garlic and a touch of red wine or sherry vinegar - are heaven on earth before lunch on a summer's day.
There were a few Chinese tourists around the place, but the restaurants and bars were empty in Europe's capital city: a sad, bedraggled town that has seen far better days.
A testament to parsimony and lack of corruption of the European institutions!
That is a fair comment. I also suspect that the pollsters are making a serious error re- adjustments to their findings following their 2015 debacle - particularly in their treatment of Don't Knows and Total Refusers. Post 2015 they concluded that such voters had voted strongly Tory in the end , and are making the assumption that that pattern will continue next time. I have serious doubts about that, and feel that many of the current Don't Knows /Refusers are unhappy Labour voters who are not prepared to declare there support for a party led by Corbyn. I see no obvious reason why a vaguely Tory doubtful voter would wish at this time to withold support from Theresa May. If I am correct , the pollsters may have misdirected their adjustments.
ICM's spiral of silence adjustment reduced the Tory lead, as it happens.
I spent last night in Brussels. It's fine looking and even atmospheric in places, but the word seedy could have been invented for it. After the rain the smell of drains is overpowering - essence of French campsite toilets circa 1985; and the grand, late 19th century King Leopold edifices are, perhaps appropriately, in a general state of disrepair. And the beggars, Jesus Christ - so many of them; but not as many as the soldiers on patrol around the stations and other public buildings. There were a few Chinese tourists around the place, but the restaurants and bars were empty in Europe's capital city: a sad, bedraggled town that has seen far better days.
The faded grandeur reminded me of the run down areas of Budapest we spent a week in during an Interrail trip.
Why did anyone ever think John Stones was any good? He reminds me of Titus Bramble and Kolo Toure, a player who seemingly has no idea how to play in the position he is in, but inexplicably still gets put there.
I have a worry the pineapple on pizza division may end up more toxic on PB than Leaver vs Remainer. For what it's worth, those who defame the greatest foodstuff ever with pineapple should be pariahs in my view.
The wonderful thing about pizza is that many toppings are available...
That's true, but there must be limits, for the sake of decency!
Yeah, the limits are: if you don't like a topping, have a different one!
Why did anyone ever think John Stones was any good? He reminds me of Titus Bramble and Kolo Toure, a player who seemingly has no idea how to play in the position he is in, but inexplicably still gets put there.
Kolo Toure is awesome, broke my heart when he left Liverpool.
Mr. Tyndall, indeed. Labour MPs are so besotted with the Labour brand they're letting their actual values wither and die in Parliament. I said a year ago they should split. They still should.
Anyway, I'm off.
MR Dancer - indeed.
The Morris Dancer - Mortimer plan for split, reform as Diet Labour and become opposition overnight could hardly have been easier...
It's certainly valid to argue that the sensible fraction of Labour needs to dump the Far Left to save itself, but you can understand why they would be terrified of taking the step. It's an enormous gamble, and the experience of the SDP does not bode well for them.
It's quite possible that, under this scenario, Rump Labour would retain the bulk of its vote. I'm not sure exactly what proportion of what's left of the Labour vote is brand loyalty, robot, cultural or habit voting - whichever way you choose to describe it - but it must be very substantial. And many Labour supporters will be genuine enthusiasts for the Far Left and/or regard any attempt at a split as treason on top of those.
Realistically, if some combination of the Old Right and the Soft Left does command a breakaway, then they are going to have to do two things almost immediately: agree an electoral pact with the Liberal Democrats, which will mean accepting that they can't win an election on their own again; and declare war on their old party. I've said it before and I'll say it again: if Labour does turn out to be beyond saving, then any successor party must go all out to destroy it. There are too many English voters who will never back an alliance of the centre-left so long as it looks like a Trojan horse for the Far Left and Scottish Nationalism.
I know he's a spiv fantasist borderline racist and all round unpleasant person but I really felt sorry for Paul Nuttall trudging round Stoke this evening.
It stuck in my head and after Nuttall's humiliation I can't help wondering how he must be feeling.
Especially was
I true.
The Police seem to accept it as true
Do you have a link to their statement saying such?
It fake news
Ah. T
It's a shame that his previous mistakes on this matter (and others) tend to muddy the waters for him having been there.
Maybe we can get him for wasting police time?!
Not m I'd Resolve may mean.
Remember we were discussing THE FIRE CHILD?
I agreed with your assessment that it is seriously inferior to ICE TWINS, though "enjoyable" in its own right.
Today I learned that FIRE CHILD has gone into the top ten Sunday Times bestseller list. My second Sunday Times bestseller in a row. Which means that right now I simultaneously have top ten bestsellers in the UK, Finland, Germany (plus another in the top 20), Brazil, and Denmark and possibly several others (they don't keep me informed: I have to Google).
I HAVE BECOME THE SPOOKY KID VERSION OF JOJO MOYES
It is quite quite bizarre. And so much of it is luck. Right now I'm making squillions of cash, yet it could so easily have been the opposite. When I first joined PB I was a just-recovering heroin addict, living in a rented hovel, with an annual income of about £15k.
FUCK. I got lucky. Most don't.
Maybe I should erect a small shrine to the Smithson Family, with candles and pictures of OGH, they have certainly coincided with my enormous dose of undeserved good fortune.
Praise Be.
Luck is a very under-rated quality. Or, more precisely, making the most of the luck you get is. I have always been pretty good at that. Unlike most of us, though, you also have talent: that is a rarer gift and something that it is criminal to squander. Earning good money for being good at something that brings people pleasure is a wonderful thing. Heartiest congratulations.
Why did anyone ever think John Stones was any good? He reminds me of Titus Bramble and Kolo Toure, a player who seemingly has no idea how to play in the position he is in, but inexplicably still gets put there.
Kolo Toure is awesome, broke my heart when he left Liverpool.
He was never quite the same after he contracted malaria at the 2008 ANC. Still an invincible, though.
Anchovies, spicy beef, olives, egg and bacon, from the pizza shop just around the corner from my station, that never seems to close. Brought me back to life many a time after a busy night.
Why did anyone ever think John Stones was any good? He reminds me of Titus Bramble and Kolo Toure, a player who seemingly has no idea how to play in the position he is in, but inexplicably still gets put there.
Kolo Toure is awesome, broke my heart when he left Liverpool.
He was never quite the same after he contracted malaria at the 2008 ANC. Still an invincible, though.
He had an intensity, I wished he was 10 years younger when we signed him.
Not much to say on Copeland other than it will be close but the Tory vote is reasonably solid. PM came down to give a pep talk and made a handful of calls and I got a quick selfie with Boris while phoning
Out of interest, to @HYUFD & any other tory activists lurking...
What was the 2015 tory GOTV operation like in no hoper seats?
How hard did they try to get those 7000 stoke central votes?
TSE is probably best placed to answer that than me but I certainly doubt Stoke Central received the effort in 2015 it is receiving now when it was not a marginal seat
Thanks for that. I guess my question is - does the 7000 GE2015 vote figure have room to grow by much if the tories do their usual tricks like harvesting the carehomes and such?
I have a hunch that it's really not impossible for the tories to win if they put the resources in. I thought that Brexit mag was well pitched to the local electorate.
Anyway, I think I'll offer to lay my £7k green at 4/1 (25%). If there aren't any takers I'm happy enough to let it run.
Updated trading strategy;
Con ~10% Back @ 5%, lay @ 25% UKIP ~20% Back @ 15%, lay at 30% Lab ~70% Back @ 60%, lay at 80% LD's ~2% Back @ 1%, Lay @ 4%
Not much to say on Copeland other than it will be close but the Tory vote is reasonably solid. PM came down to give a pep talk and made a handful of calls and I got a quick selfie with Boris while phoning
Out of interest, to @HYUFD & any other tory activists lurking...
What was the 2015 tory GOTV operation like in no hoper seats?
How hard did they try to get those 7000 stoke central votes?
TSE is probably best placed to answer that than me but I certainly doubt Stoke Central received the effort in 2015 it is receiving now when it was not a marginal seat
Thanks for that. I guess my question is - does the 7000 GE2015 vote figure have room to grow by much if the tories do their usual tricks like harvesting the carehomes and such?
I have a hunch that it's really not impossible for the tories to win if they put the resources in. I thought that Brexit mag was well pitched to the local electorate.
Anyway, I think I'll offer to lay my £7k green at 4/1 (25%). If there aren't any takers I'm happy enough to let it run.
Updated trading strategy;
Con ~10% Back @ 5%, lay @ 25% UKIP ~20% Back @ 15%, lay at 30% Lab ~70% Back @ 60%, lay at 80% LD's ~2% Back @ 1%, Lay @ 4%
If Stoke Central was anything like the safe Labour seats in West Yorkshire, then they wouldn't have been targeted at GE2015 with the precision we targeted the marginals.
The best part about the #ordinarylabour hashtag is that they've got Jeremy Corbyn to hold up a blank piece of paper, as if that was ever a good idea on the Internet
I agreed with your assessment that it is seriously inferior to ICE TWINS, though "enjoyable" in its own right.
Today I learned that FIRE CHILD has gone into the top ten Sunday Times bestseller list. My second Sunday Times bestseller in a row. Which means that right now I simultaneously have top ten bestsellers in the UK, Finland, Germany (plus another in the top 20), Brazil, and Denmark and possibly several others (they don't keep me informed: I have to Google).
I HAVE BECOME THE SPOOKY KID VERSION OF JOJO MOYES
It is quite quite bizarre. And so much of it is luck. Right now I'm making squillions of cash, yet it could so easily have been the opposite. When I first joined PB I was a just-recovering heroin addict, living in a rented hovel, with an annual income of about £15k.
FUCK. I got lucky. Most don't.
Maybe I should erect a small shrine to the Smithson Family, with candles and pictures of OGH, they have certainly coincided with my enormous dose of undeserved good fortune.
Praise Be.
Congratulations.
Whilst I envy your money, and slightly envy your success (*), I don't envy your lifestyle. Not one bit. Then again, you like to holiday in five-star hotels, whilst I prefer five-pound tents.
However you now face a problem: you know the second book under this pseudonym wasn't as good as the first. fortunately it seems not to have really dented sales. However you must have a nagging concern that the next one might continue a downwards trend?
It would drive me (more) bonkers if I was in your situation.
(*) I'd love to be a published author, but lack the skill.
I'm confident the 3rd - WHEN SHE'S ALONE - is better than the 2nd, and possibly the 1st. It has everything. It's fucking bleak, but also really gripping (I hope).
It has a compelling premise (supposedly happy mildly amnesiac woman wakes from brief coma, following horrible car accident, to be told it wasn't an accident, she actually tried to kill herself - and because of her brain trauma amnesia she can't recall why). It has a hideously twisted narrative and denouement. It has a fab location, Dartmoor is so good in so many ways.
I could fuck it up, but I've def got a good idea.
That said, I will need to the fourth to be TOTALLY different and unexpected.
But hell with that. Right now, as of this evening, life is rich and good, and that's all one can ask.
Cheers!
That sounds very like a movie plot from a couple of years ago (not Gone Girl but the trailers were at a similar time). I think the twist was that the psychiatrist to whom she was talking was actually here husband who has attempted to murder her.
You might want to check (I think there is a way of doing these things)
Comments
Do you also put strawberries on your pizzas too?
What has changed so much in 9 months? I would have thought that when Labour do dump Corbyn sometime within the next 18 months that any national boost to Labour fortunes following that would percolate through to Scotland . I actually beblieve it to be still realistic for Labour to poll circa 35% in 2020 - and perhaps 25% in Scotland.
The Tories will make much of the Corbyn period when it is done, and that may have an effect, but if he really is so uniquely bad, he must be depressing a natural level of support that anyone not him can restore, at least to a respectable level.
I think it will be very limited as opposition does not effect people in a great way like government.The big changes are normally due to economics black Wednesday banking crash.If the next business cycle recession is bad combined with Brexit it could go either way politically depending if Labour have a competent leader in the public's eyes.
Interesting theory, when was the last time a Labour opposition achieved a swing to it between this stage of Parliament and the election?
Whilst I envy your money, and slightly envy your success (*), I don't envy your lifestyle. Not one bit. Then again, you like to holiday in five-star hotels, whilst I prefer five-pound tents.
However you now face a problem: you know the second book under this pseudonym wasn't as good as the first. fortunately it seems not to have really dented sales. However you must have a nagging concern that the next one might continue a downwards trend?
It would drive me (more) bonkers if I was in your situation.
(*) I'd love to be a published author, but lack the skill.
Time to kick them all out
Those who commit such crimes are beyond help. They are probably French.
Edit. I am currently eating a chicken bbq flat bread pizza.
That means unless you don't believe incumbents have a personal vote that strip away that to just 1 incumbent and you have a partisan-only position even worse than 22.5%
What was the 2015 tory GOTV operation like in no hoper seats?
How hard did they try to get those 7000 stoke central votes?
I'd forgotten about the "relaunch." LOL!
Anyway, I'm off.
It was pizza with anchovies. I refused.
Anchovies are truly the devil's food.
The pudding was nice though.
The Morris Dancer - Mortimer plan for split, reform as Diet Labour and become opposition overnight could hardly have been easier...
In February 1985:
Tories were averaging 37.5% - at the General Election they achieved 42.2%
Lab were averaging 35.8% - at the General Election they achieved 30.8%
Lib SDP Alliance were averaging 24.9% - at the General Election they achieved 22.6%
So the Tories beat their polling at this stage by nearly 5%
Lab underperformed their polling at this stage by exactly 5%
Lib SDP Alliance underperformed by over 2%
How do you make that a swing from the government to the opposition? I make that a swing from Lab to the Government from the polling at this stage of effectively 5%. Put a swing from the polling at this stage of 5% from the opposition to the government and Con may actually gain Bootle!
Feb 89 averages:
Con 41% (41.9% at GE)
Lab 38.7% (34.4% at GE)
LD 9.5% (17.8% at GE)
So there was again a swing from Lab to Con in that Parliament too.
People who enjoy pineapple on pizza are the enlightened ones. They shall inherit the earth.
Also, Meeks and I share an unusual taste, it seems.
A Ponce x
£48 million for John Stones? Havin' a laugh
Pineapple goes with ham.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39043496
It's quite possible that, under this scenario, Rump Labour would retain the bulk of its vote. I'm not sure exactly what proportion of what's left of the Labour vote is brand loyalty, robot, cultural or habit voting - whichever way you choose to describe it - but it must be very substantial. And many Labour supporters will be genuine enthusiasts for the Far Left and/or regard any attempt at a split as treason on top of those.
Realistically, if some combination of the Old Right and the Soft Left does command a breakaway, then they are going to have to do two things almost immediately: agree an electoral pact with the Liberal Democrats, which will mean accepting that they can't win an election on their own again; and declare war on their old party. I've said it before and I'll say it again: if Labour does turn out to be beyond saving, then any successor party must go all out to destroy it. There are too many English voters who will never back an alliance of the centre-left so long as it looks like a Trojan horse for the Far Left and Scottish Nationalism.
I awash in a sea of confusion and revulsion.
What's AV?
https://twitter.com/bet365/status/834148823945576448
I have a hunch that it's really not impossible for the tories to win if they put the resources in. I thought that Brexit mag was well pitched to the local electorate.
Anyway, I think I'll offer to lay my £7k green at 4/1 (25%). If there aren't any takers I'm happy enough to let it run.
Updated trading strategy;
Con ~10% Back @ 5%, lay @ 25%
UKIP ~20% Back @ 15%, lay at 30%
Lab ~70% Back @ 60%, lay at 80%
LD's ~2% Back @ 1%, Lay @ 4%
I'm sure you will have noticed by now but 25% is 3/1
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C5JsGMFXUAEI4VS.jpg:large
You might want to check (I think there is a way of doing these things)